Heroes, and the Divisional Weekend

16 Saturday Jan 2016

Tags

Arizona Cardinals, Blair Walsh, Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, David Bowie, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers, Seattle Seahawks, Washington

It has been a rough few days. Between Lemmy’s funeral, the Bengals’ implosion, and then Bowie’s death, I have been wandering around in something of a haze. That’s two music icons and personal heroes gone, along with the continuing twenty-five year wait for a playoff win. That’s not even a championship, but the hope that the team, fans, and the city of Cincinnati would be spared a fifth consecutive playoff loss, but I’ll come back to the Wildcard games in a bit.

In the days following Bowie’s death there have been some writing that they don’t understand the outpouring of grief over a musician, that this is someone that you have never met so why are you sad? The answer to that was put rather beautifully by Lauren Laverne on her Monday radio show, because of course it is personal, music has that strange and magical hook direct into your soul. It has the power to soothe, to inspire, it is the soundtrack to your life, and can take you back to a key moments from your past in an instant. Part of our identity is what we chose to love, what is important to us. This is the same process that makes someone care about the outcome of twenty-two men chasing a ball around a field, what films we like to watch, or what books we read. It is all a part of how we identify ourselves, how we express to the world who and what we are.

I have written before on the positive effects that sport can have, particularly with participation, but also for simply taking someone out of themselves. What I love about Bowie was his endless exploration of self-expression. This pursuit wasn’t a search for a new on trend sound that would help further his career, but the continuing development of a curious artist. I don’t have the single personal moment of a song telling me that I could do or be something that I have heard so many talk about in the last few days. I am too young for him to have revolutionised what was possible, for me it had already happened, but oh boy what a catalogue of songs. To me he was intrinsically intertwined with what a musician should be, and so as a drummer, therefore what I should aspire to be. I can’t hear Rebel Rebel without thinking about my dad, it was one of those conversations father and sons have across generations when they both love music. We all have heroes and influences. Some people have a select few. I could wax lyrical on scientists, politicians, artists of all hues, and yes sports people.

Even as I write the first draft of this blog, we have learned that Alan Rickman has also passed away, again aged 69 and killed by cancer. Death is not something we like to think about, it is an all too painful reminder of our own mortality. It is even more shocking when it comes as a surprise, when we were ignorant of the illness, when an album was only released three days earlier.

So how do I pull this back to sport of all things? Well by dint of the aforementioned discussion on policing grief. Like all things, there are degrees of grief. Life in all its infinite complex glory gives us endless things to care about, and usually concern over one thing does not deny concern about the other. We have to have some kind of balance, otherwise we’d collapse under the cares of the world. I am saddened by the death of a hero. But what about all the wars? My team lost a playoff game. Are you not concerned by the systematic dismantling of the welfare state? My team is moving city. Do I contradict myself? Very well then, I contradict myself. I am large, I contain multitudes.

With apologies to Walt Whitman, we’ll get back to football, and the various sets of fans that have had a pretty bad week as well.

The Houston Texans had done well to even make the playoffs, but last weekend really was one game too far. The game started with a one hundred and six yard kick off return touchdown by the Chiefs, and things never improved as the Texans slipped to a 30-0 loss. The defence actually gave a reasonable account of themselves, especially with JJ Watt having further injuries, but the offence was horrible. Racking up five turnovers, with Brian Hoyer throwing four interceptions and two fumbles, losing one to the Chiefs, things never got going in the passing game. In fairness, having your starting left tackle is always going to hurt, but the lack of options behind DeAndre Hopkins really hurt the Texans, and you have to think they will be looking to address this in the offseason.

I have said playoff win or bust for the Bengals all season, and it was another painful loss. However, if last year’s loss was explainable by the number of injuries to the skill positions on offence, then this one was understandable given the Bengals were without their starting quarterback and still gave a reasonable account of themselves in the fourth quarter. Despite not scoring in the first three quarters, AJ McCarron put the Bengals in a position to win the game, and they had the ball with 1:50 left on the clock. With a year left on his contract, building one of the league’s most talented rosters, and with his coaching tree still expanding, it appears that Marvin Lewis is safe for another year in Cincinnati, but he will have to address the issue of discipline/poise in the offseason. I have no issue with either of the late penalties that cost the Bengals this game, although Joey Porter had no business being on the field and another coach had already pulled Reggie Nelson’s dreadlocks on the sideline, but you have to be smarter than both Burfict and Jones were at the end of this game. I am sure the league will be looking at ways to control this fixture going forward as they will desperate to avoid the rancour escalating further given the Steelers and Bengals face each other twice a season. Already Hue Jackson has left to be head coach of the Cleveland Browns, so it will be another season of change at coordinator for the Bengals, but so much of the team’s recent success has been built through the offseason and draft that hopefully this part of the process will take care of itself once more.

The most painful loss of the Wildcard round has to be the Minnesota Viking’s agonising last second loss on a missed chip shot twenty-seven yard field goal. You have to think that Blair Walsh will be thinking about that kick for years to come, but this should not take the gloss of the continuing progress the Vikings have made, In ex-Bengal coordinator Mike Zimmer’s second year in charge the Vikings were able to wrestle the NFC North division away from the Green Bay Packers, and have a young foundation to build on. They need to sure up the offensive line and get Teddy Bridgewater some options on offence, but the Vikings have a very tough defence and are heading in the right direction. You can argue that they have the most to look forward to out of the four teams that were eliminated last weekend.

That said, Washington are also making good progress in another ex-Bengals coordinator’s second year in charge. Fittingly, old offensive coordinator Jay Gruden found a formula during the course of the season that turned quarterback Kirk Cousins into one of the most effective passers in the league in the final weeks. With two solid receivers and a very promising progression from tight end Jordan Reid there is hope for them next season. They will need to strengthen their defence, particularly in the secondary, if they want to compete in their division again next season, but they were able to compete with the Packers for three quarters. There looks to be a foundation to build from as long as they can sign Cousins to a sensible contract.

I will come back to the franchises that are moving in the offseason once all the deals have been firmed up, but I can’t help feeling sorry for the fans in St. Louis who are losing their team. It at least makes sense for the Rams to return to Los Angeles, and the offer has been made for the Chargers to join them. We will have to see if they agree, but it looks likely that they will be on the move in some way or the other. At least the Raiders look set to stay in Oakland, but I’m sure their fans won’t feel safe until the franchise finds a long term stadium solution.

So now onto this week’s games, which unsurprising all look to be great.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots

All the talk about the Patriots is that they are getting all their key players back, and that just having Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski back will enable to Tom Brady to get the ball out quicker, helping the Patriots in pass protection. This is likely to be the deciding factor in this game, the Chiefs defence has been excellent for most of the season since they got corner Shaun Smith back from injury, but their pass rush will need to be effective if the Chiefs are to win this game.

The Patriots defence has been good for large chunks of the season, but the Chiefs have been getting it done without spectacular passing numbers from Alex Smith, who doesn’t turn the ball over. They actually seem to have improved since running back Jamaal Charles has gone down, but it will be interesting to see if they can scheme their way into competing in this game.

I wouldn’t like to call this game as there are too many injury unknowns, but I am expecting a good contest.

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals

I am looking forward to this game as the Cardinals are my favourite team left in the competition. Their aggressive long passing game has been effective against virtually everyone, whilst they got a huge amount of pressure on Aaron Rodgers the last time they played.

The Packers may have pulled away from Washington at the end of the game, but the offence still hasn’t proved to me that it can play against man coverage, which has been their downfall for much of the season. If they can turn the Cardinal’s aggressive pass rush against them, then they might be able to win this game as their defence has been playing well recently, but I am expecting them to come up short in this one.

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers

The Seahawks are a good team, but they are lucky to be playing in this game. They should have lost against the Vikings if Blair Walsh hadn’t missed the last second field goal. Their offence got very little going last week except when for when Russell Wilson made plays out of structure, but the Seahawks defence is looking good once more and should keep them in contention.

However, the one area the Seahawks defence have struggled with is against tight ends, and Cam Newton’s favourite target this season has been tight end Greg Olson. The Panthers beat the Seahawks in week six, and with their own great defence you would expect them to repeat the feat at home. The Seahawks are always a dangerous proposition in the post season, but you don’t go 15-1 without being very good.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos

Our final game of the weekend sees Peyton Manning start the game after an injury plagued season where he has ranked amongst the worst quarterbacks in the league. We really can’t be sure how effective the offence will be against a Steelers defence that plays better than its patchy secondary, but the Broncos have been like this all season. What has got them into the playoffs is a fearsome defence, and although they had difficulties against the Steelers earlier in the season, they have been mixing more zone into their coverages, which might help them as the Bengals’ two high safety look did limit the Steelers’ passing attack.

The Steelers will be concerned about attempting their normal game on offence, as Antonio Brown has been ruled out of this week’s game with the concussion he sustained at the end of the game against the Bengals. Somehow Ben Roethlisberger is only questionable despite a sprained AC join and torn ligaments in his throwing shoulder. If you combine this with the injuries to their running backs and the Steelers might just be too injured to win this one. They will play the Broncos tough, but I would have more faith in the Bronco’s Brock Osweiler than Landry Jones if it does come down to a battle of the backups. I’m expecting the Steelers’ defence to blitz the Broncos heavily to keep themselves in the game, but I think this could be a week too many for the Steelers.

It should be a great set of games this weekend, and let’s hope the world eases up on us a bit going into next week.

Buccaneers @ Rams, Amateur Adventures in Film, and Week 15 Picks

20 Sunday Dec 2015

Posted by gee4213 in Amateur Adventures in Film

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Aaron Donald, Arizona Cardinals, Case Keenum, Deone Bucannon, Gerard McCoy, Jameis Winston, Jeff Fisher, Lovie Smith, Mike Evans, NFL, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tavon Austin, Todd Gurley, Tyrann Mathieu, Week 15 Picks

It was a slightly odd Thursday night game given that if you were to look at the statistics on their own without the score, you would think that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers actually won the game, but in the end the Rams ran out convincing winners in what could be their last game in St Louis.

The Rams have now won two games straight and part of that turn around seems to be the change in offensive coordinator. Whilst the Buccaneers did an effective job of bottling up Todd Gurley, the Rams came with game plan that made the most of Tavon Austin’s ability with the ball in his hands, and an efficient passing game that gained two hundred and thirty-four yards from fourteen receptions out of seventeen attempts. I am not going to say that Case Keenum is an amazing quarterback, but this did look like a functional NFL offence, which it has not done for a lot of the season, and I will be as curious to see what this team does in the offseason with the construction of the roster as where the franchise will actually play its games.

The Buccaneers defence played well in the run game in terms of restricting Todd Gurley, which is not a surprise given that they were ranked fifth in rush defence by DVOA coming into this game. However, they were not that sure in their tackling, and had problems dealing with the shifty Austin. No one really stood out, although Gerard McCoy flashed, but he has not hit the lofty heights that we have come to expect given his performance in previous seasons. They have however, begun to look like they can make Lovie Smith’s Tampa Two defence effective, which seemed to be a real question earlier this season and they will be hoping to build on that next year.

The Buccaneers offence in contrast, had some good performances, but the yardage gained hides the fact that they got very little going in the first half, gave the ball away twice and could have lost the ball again if they had not recovered one of their fumbles. It was odd in that to start the game they tried to rely on their run game as they have much for the season, but whilst Doug Martin ran the ball effectively, Jameis Winston kept missing his receivers with throws that were too high. In fact Winston had this problem crop up through much of the game, but it was particularly prevalent in the early part of the game and led to difficulties maintaining drives. In the second half, and particularly in the fourth quarter the Buccaneers were able to get things going, and Winston was able to make some big plays with his arm, particularly to receiver Mike Evans who had an impressing one hundred and fifty-seven yard game from nine receptions, although he was targeted seventeen times. The one interception Winston did have was a bad read as he failed to take account of a dropping corner, but he has been much better in his first season than many feared and if they can get him some more options and improve his offensive line then the Buccaneers definitely have a quarterback for the foreseeable future.

There is no doubting the talent on the Rams defence, but it has rarely been able to get everyone playing well at the same time. The particularly impressive player for them in this game was Aaron Donald, who may not have had any sacks, but did get two tackles for a loss as well as three quarterback hits whilst causing all kinds of problems for the Buccaneers offensive line. It should not be possible for a defensive tackle as large as Donald to move as quickly as he does, but he also possesses the strength to shed blockers to make tackles in the run game, and in his second year is making a case to be included in the conversation with the other defensive greats.

In the end the Rams ran out comfortable winners in this one, but I am not sure it will be enough to save Jeff Fisher his job, whilst the improvement the Buccaneers have made this season should mean that Lovie Smith gets another year to continue the rebuilding job in Tamp Bay

I want to write a little about the coaching tape I watched this week before moving onto our picks for week fifteen. I was looking at the way that Cardinals use safeties Deone Bucannon and Tyrann Mathieu, which is pretty much how I outlined last week, but it is still impressive to see on tape.

For Bucannon, although listed as a safety he really does play as one of their linebackers, using his movement skills to avoid blocks and make plays. Not only did he force a fumble and recover it, but he was able to tackle Adrian Peterson in the backfield, and was second in tackles only to Tyrann Mathieu.

If Bucannon is exceptional because of the position he is playing given his size, then Tyrann Mathieu demonstrates an amazing flexibility in the way he is used around the Cardinals defence. He basically lines up as either a safety or slot corner, and is usually around the line of scrimmage, but from there he can exploit his athleticism either rushing towards the play, or drop into coverage. In the Cardinals blitz heavy scheme he frequently rushes from the slot corner position or from the line, and was able to get pressure on the QB multiple times. The pass play I mentioned in last week’s write up where Mathieu batted down a ball behind the line of scrimmage was actually coming off such a slot corner blitz, and given that Teddy Bridgewater was looking left as the ball was snapped, I would guess hat Mathieu either keyed off that or adjusted his blitz angle in case the ball came out early, and it was this that allowed him get a hand to the ball.

Overall what I appreciated about the Cardinals defensive scheme was that they have collected a number of good athletes and are putting them in a position to make the most of their physical gifts whilst giving themselves flexibility in an era where offences are becoming increasingly multiple and aggressive in the pass game. I don’t know if there are going to be other teams that copy them, but the principle of having that much coverage ability combined with aggressive pressure is one we may well see copied, if perhaps with different types of personnel.

Finally we go on to the rest of our week fifteen picks, with Dan and I both going 1-1 so far.

Falcons @ Jagaurs (-3.5)

The points scare me because despite the improvement of the Jaguars this season, they are still not reliable week to week, but they are coming off a win where they scored fifty points whilst the Falcons are on a horrendous run of losses. I don’t see the Falcons ending that run on the road in Jacksonville this week.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Jaguars

Bills @ Washington (+0.5)

It feels like I have been wrong about this Washington season all year, but with the Bills falling from playoff contention thanks to last week’s loss and their continued ill discipline which seems to be a feature of Rex Ryan’s teams, I think that Washington will win this game as they try to stay in the NFC East race. The worry is that Washington has been inconsistent on both sides of the ball, but they have been better at home and with something to play for I will take the half point that doesn’t really mean anything.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Bills

Bears @ Vikings (-5.5)

The Chicago Bears have been better than most thought they would be this season, but the Vikings put up a very credible performance against a very good Cardinals team in Arizona and will hopefully be healthier after the extra rest. Their defence has been good all year and was solid last week despite missing some of its best players, and they will want to get their season back on track in this divisional game and I think they will. They might not cover the points, but I think the Vikings are the better team so that’s the way I am going.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

Titans @ Patriots (-14.5)

The points make me pause, but the Titans are on the road and do not have the players around rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota to compete with the Patriots given the return of Rob Gronkowski and what he means to their offence. The Titans only scored one touchdown against the Jets last week, and that was a trick play, so I don’t see them doing much in their second game on the road in a row, so whilst I should pick the Titans because of the points, I just can’t bring myself to do it.

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

Texans @ Colts (-1.5)

The AFC South is in such a state that two teams with 6-7 records are playing for the division lead, with both of them starting backup quarterbacks. There is very little to hang your hat on in this game, but the Texans at least have JJ Watt and a defence that has been coming on in the second half of the season even if they did struggle against the Patriots last week, so that’s what I will put my trust in for this game.

Gee’s Pick: Texans
Dan’s Pick: Texans

Chiefs @ Ravens (+7.5)

The Chiefs are on one of the hottest streaks in the NFL at the moment, which is a testament to the job head coach Andy Reid did in keeping this team together through their 1-5 start that easily could have wrecked their season. The Ravens have been specialising in close games for much of the season, even if they had been losing most of them, but the injuries finally passed a point where they could compete and lost badly last week. I think that the Chiefs offence will be better this week for not playing in horrendous conditions, and will cover the points in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Panthers @ Giants (+5.5)

This game has one of the matchups of the year with Panther’s corner Josh Norman likely going up against Odell Beckham. There is a lot of buzz about how the Giants love playing these kinds of games and upsetting good teams, but this Giants team is not like the one that beat the Patriots in two Super Bowls. Those teams may have come good at the end of the year, but they also had a fearsome pass rush and more to hang their hat on than Eli Manning getting hot. Yes the Manning to Beckham connection is effective, but this week they go up against one of the best defences in the league, and whilst the injuries the Panthers suffered last week worry me, I don’t see the Giants really being able to compete. This probably means the Giants will win as it’s hard to predict that the Panthers really will go undefeated, but I’m not prepared to pick against them this week despite needing them to win by six points on the road.

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

Browns @ Seahawks (-14.5)

I feel like I am picking a lot of sides giving away a lot of points this week, and they surely can’t all come in, but despite the Browns getting a win last week, I don’t see them repeating the trick as they travel from Cleveland to Seattle. The Seahawks defence is still very good, and with their offence now finding an effective passing game I’m not even worried about the loss of rookie running back Thomas Rawls in this one. I’m backing the Seahawks to run out convincing winners at home.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Packers @ Raiders (+3.5)

I think I am changing my mind on this one in that on the podcast I said I was not convinced by the Packers, having had false dawns before this season in terms of things turning consistently round on offence, and the Raiders have played well for large parts of the season even if they do make young team mistakes. However, with Mike McCarthy taking back play calling duties last week, and a faith that they will not allow Khalil Mack to get five sacks like the Broncos did last week, I think the Packers may well cover this one even if the half point does make me nervous.

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Bengals @ 49ers (+4.5)

The 49ers defence seems to play better at home that than they do on the road, but they just lost to the Cleveland Brown and their rush defence is near the bottom of the league. I know what Hue Jackson is saying about the game plan this week, and to some extent I believe him as I didn’t think it was a bad display by AJ McCarron against the Steelers last week, but a young quarterback’s best friend is the run game, which fits the tactical situation of this game and so I think the Bengals will run on the 49ers a lot. It may well be a close game, but I am choosing to take a page out of Dan’s giant book of optimism and back my team to cover this week.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

Broncos @ Steelers (-6.5)

This line is tricky for me in that whilst the Broncos offence stuttered last week, they still have a really good defence. The Steelers have a great set of receivers, and this should be a really good game, but the Broncos could well slow the Steelers down. I think they can for a while, but this Steelers team are just so good at the moment, and whilst I think I would pick differently if this game was in Denver, I am backing the Steelers in Pittsburgh to win and maintain the pressure on the Bengals because that’s what happens in the AFC North.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Dolphins @ Chargers (-1.5)

There have been comments coming out of the Chargers locker room that they are aware this could be the team’s last game in San Diego and they are desperate for a win. I think the Dolphins might be close to being a good team than some would have you believe, but they have not been good this season. However, I am not sure the Chargers should be favourites against many given how their season has been, and there has been very little home field advantage for them this season so I will join Dan back on Dolphins Island this week.

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Cardinals @ Eagles (+3.5)

The Cardinals continue to get wins with a good defence and explosive offence, whilst the Eagles have been uneven all season and I simply don’t trust them. So even thought the Cardinals are on the road in Philadelphia, I am backing them to cover the points in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Lions @ Saints (-2.5)

The Lions lost for a second week in the row, and it seems that being eliminated from the playoffs has stifled their little recovery. They are still playing better than they were, but then again so are the Saints. Their defence was not as bad last week as it has been all season, and they ran out convincing winners against the Buccaneers. This leaves me in something of a quandary, particularly as the Buccaneers were pretty convincingly beaten by the Rams on Thursday, but I am going for the team with the better record who are playing at home whilst keeping my fingers crossed.

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Saints

Vikings at Cardinals, and Week 14 Picks

13 Sunday Dec 2015

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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Adrian Peterson, Arizona Cardinals, Deone Bucannon, Minnesota Vikings, NFL, Tyrann Mathieu, Week 14 Picks

It was another great Thursday night game this week, which saw the Minnesota Vikings visiting the Arizona Cardinals, and they were much more effective than I was expecting despite the injuries in their defence, but that’s not where I will start.

The Cardinals began the game moving the ball well, but couldn’t finish their first drive and had to settle for a field goal. The Vikings in contrast put together a highly effective first drive, with Adrian Peterson looking like he was going to dominate the game as he carved up the Cardinals defence, and made some amazing jump cuts to get his touchdown. However, the Cardinals adjusted and in later drives limited him effectively as they made several tackles for losses. Not only that, but one of the Vikings three fumbles was caused when Josh Mauro cam bursting through the line and tackled Peterson as he attempted to make the pass to a receiver on a reverse play. So if the Vikings didn’t dominate on the ground, how did they stay in the game? The answer is that they came into this game with a plan for dealing with the Cardinals’ pressure schemes in the pass game and were able to throw the ball successfully with Teddy Bridgewater completing twenty-five of thirty-six attempts to eleven different receivers for three hundred and thirty-five yards and a touchdown. A lot of this was on little dump offs and screen passes to counter the pass rush and so whilst no one player dominated, the Vikings were effective moving the ball. The timing of a lot Bridgewater’s throws was good, which they have to be as his balls do seem to hang in the air and I imagine he would not be a relaxing quarterback to watch week in and week out if the Vikings are your team.

The Cardinals were equally as good moving the ball on offence, but could have won this game more easily if they were more effective closer to the goal line. They went 0-2 in the red zone, kicking three field goals and scoring two long passing touchdowns. The aggressive vertical passing game is the defining feature of the Cardinals offence under Bruce Arians, and in Carson Palmer he really has the quarterback to execute it. Not only that, but Arians really has this team playing for each other and nowhere was this more visible on the field than the Cardinal’s second touchdown when three Vikings players bit on an inside route leaving both Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald open. Carson Palmer said after the game he saw that they were both open and threw the ball between them and hoped, although on the coaching tape Floyd is in front of Fitzgerald so it does look like Floyd was the intended target, but the impressive thing for me was Fitzgerald’s block on safety Anthony Harris that opened the way for Floyd to finish a forty-two yard touchdown pass. The crazy thing is that this was not even the longest passing play of the day with John Brown demonstrating his flat out speed as he took a pass to the end zone to complete a sixty-five yard touchdown pass. It should be noted that whilst the vertical passing game is the defining feature, the Cardinals do not ignore the run game, with rookie David Johnson gaining ninety-two yards from nineteen carries, keeping the Vikings defence honest.

So we have seen how effective both offences were, but this was not a high scoring game and as such we shouldn’t overlook the defences. The Vikings defence had some bad moments like the miscommunication on the second touchdown play that had three defenders follow one receiver’s inside route, but they were generating consistent pressure in the passing game and if they only sacked Palmer twice and hit him a further six times, this looked like it was a function of how quickly Palmer was getting rid of the ball rather than impressive offensive line play. They also managed to bat away six passes, and whilst by no means dominant, they absolutely gave the Vikings a chance to win on the road despite on a short week whilst carrying a number of injuries.

Part of this was due to the boom or bust nature of the Cardinals’ aggressive blitzing on defence, which only gained the Cardinals one more sack and one less quarterback hit. The problem with that is the extra sack was Dwight Freeney pulling off one of his trademark spin moves and getting to Teddy Bridgewater on the last play of the game. However, what I was impressed with was the play of the two defenders I am intending to watch on coaching tape next week in Deone Bucannon and Tyrann Mathieu. They led the team in tackles, with Mathieu getting ten solo and Bucannon seven. Not only that but they both had tackles for a loss, Mathieu batted a quick out pass in a way I’ve not seen before, somehow guessing right immediately and getting a hand to the ball as it was in the air but still behind the line of scrimmage, whilst Bucannon forced one of the Vikings three fumbles and recovered the ball. I wonder if the Vikings would have had the same success late in the game if the Cardinals had kept a few more players in coverage, but that doesn’t seem to be in Arians and his coaching staff’s nature and it certainly makes the Cardinals a highly entertaining team to watch.

This was a great game, and I thought the Vikings had a very credible outing in a game I was expecting to be very one sided. A lot of the post game focus is on the final play call, with some arguing the Vikings should have just kicked the field goal, and others saying that with a good quarterback you try to make the field goal easier and it was just a bad play by Bridgewater. I think this is one of those situations where whatever play you call, if it goes wrong the coach will be criticised, but whilst the Vikings will need to start getting some wins to stay in the playoff hunt, only the Seahawks are able to join them and the Packers on eight wins this week so they stand a very good chance of joining the Carolina Panthers and the Cardinals in the playoffs. The Cardinals now have the division sewn up, but could do with working on their red zone efficiency if they want to be truly terrifying, but no one will want to face this team in the post season.

And now onto our picks for the rest of week fourteen.

Falcons @ Panthers (-7.5)

The Falcons are settling into an eight and eight season kind of a season, which is still an improvement on last year, it just came in a very lopsided way thanks to their impressive start, but they really need to get some pass rush to help get their defence sorted out in the offseason. They travel this week to Carolina to face the unbeaten Panthers who they have to play twice in the coming weeks. I’m not sure the Panthers will go unbeaten, but games against the Giants in week fifteen and the Buccaneers in week 17 look like more likely losses, and I think they will have too much for the Falcons in both Carolina and Atlanta. The points give me a little bit of pause, but in the end I can’t look past Cam Newton and the Panthers’ defence in this one.

Gee ‘s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

Bills @ Eagles (-0.5)

The Eagles may have beaten the Patriots last week, but they conceded a lot of late points to a team with very few options in the passing game and a patchwork line, whilst getting touchdowns from their defence and special teams. They are still not a team that you can trust, whilst the Bills seem to be doing it on offence rather than defence, but have an outside chance of making a wildcard place. In a straight pick the winner situation I am going for the road team, nervously…

Gee ‘s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

Washington @ Bears (-3.5)

The Bears are coming off what they will likely see as a frustrating loss to the 49ers, and will have a point to prove against a Washington team that has not been good on the road. The difference in Washington’s performance on the roach and at home is quite startling, so I’m not going to back them to get their first road win in Chicago this week.

Gee ‘s Pick: Bears
Dan’s Pick: Washington

Steelers @ Bengals (-3.5)

This is game of the week, as it’s always a good contest between these two teams, but the Steelers offence is working so well at the moment and they are exactly the wrong team for the Bengals to be facing with the injuries mounting up in their secondary. I will be very happy to be proven wrong, but I simply don’t have as much faith as Dan in the Bengals this week.

Gee ‘s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

49ers @ Browns (-1.5)

I am not sure why the Browns are getting points against anyone at the moment, particularly with Johnny Manziel starting at quarterback. The Browns have had an amazing stretch of failing to find a franchise quarterback, and this season is falling apart spectacularly giving them the opportunity to mess up a high pick again. The 49ers are by no means a good team, but given the amount of talent they lost and the division they play in, getting four wins is better than how things looked early in the season and I think they will add to their win total this week.

Gee ‘s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: 49ers

Lions @ Rams (-0.5)

The Rams continue to slide, whilst the Lions have a defence that is now playing well and a system that is functioning better on offence. The Rams offence is so focussed on Gurly and has so many problems in the passing game that I don’t think they will win this one.

Gee ‘s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Lions

Titans @ Jets (-7.5)

The Jets keep going, and are truly in the hunt for the wildcard place, but whilst I expect them to beat the Titans, this number of points make me nervous given the Titans defence has played okay in stretches this season. Part of me wants to pick the Titans to cover in a loss, but in the end I can’t bring myself to make the pick.

Gee ‘s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Jets

Colts @ Jaguars (-1.5)

The Colts fell back to earth last week in the AFC’s own division that no one wants to win, losing to the Steelers badly and getting Hasselbeck injured in the process. The forty year old quarterback has practised all week, but the Colts are a team I don’t trust. The problem for me is that so are the Jaguars, who seem to play well enough to put up a good showing, but make too many mistakes to win regularly. This is another game where part of me wants to pick a team, but I can’t quite bring myself to do it. I know the Jaguars are at home, but I’ve been bitten too many times to back them in this one, which is probably their cue to get the win.

Gee ‘s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Colts

Chargers @ Chiefs (-9.5)

The Chargers surprised me in week 12, but it was against the Jaguars and could get nothing going against the Broncos defence last week. I don’t expect them to have much luck against the Chiefs this week either, and whilst divisional games can be funny, I think the Chiefs will cover in a game they need to win to stay in the playoff hunt.

Gee ‘s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chargers

Saints @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

The New Orleans Saints offence seems to be hit and miss, but they’ve just lost running back Mark Ingram for the rest of the season, whilst the Buccaneers have really come on during the course of this season. This is usually the sign that things are going to go wrong for the Bucs, but I think they will win this one at home in Tampa Bay and so I’m going to back them. Sorry Bucs fans…

Gee ‘s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

Seahawks @ Ravens (+8.5)

The Seahawks are playing good football on offence, with Russell Wilson seemingly beginning the transition to a pocket quarterback, and Thomas Rawls continuing to run well. They absolutely hammered the Vikings last week with their defence pitching a shut out. This is a lot of points for the Ravens to be getting, particularly as they have specialised in close games all season, but Matt Schaub is a pick six throwing machine these days, and I think this is finally the game where the Ravens’ problems finally are reflected in the score. I wouldn’t be too surprised if they kept it close though…

Gee ‘s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Raiders @ Broncos (-7.5)

The Broncos keep rolling with great defence and just enough offence to win, but whilst I think they will be able to run on the Raiders and win, I do wonder if they are this much better given how effective Derek Carr and Amari Cooper have been in the passing game. I’m going for a Raiders cover.

Gee ‘s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Cowboys @ Packers (-7.5)

The Dallas Cowboys got a win last week, and somehow are still not out of the race in the NFC East despite only having four of them. This week they travel to face a Packers team that got a stunning last minute win last week, but are still not playing well on offence. They will have had some extra days to try to get healthy on the offensive line, but I’m not sure I feel comfortable backing them to win by this much over anybody at the moment. I could regret this as I still think the Packers will win, but I have a feeling the Cowboys keep it closer than this.

Gee ‘s Pick: Cowboys
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Patriots @ Texans (+3.5)

I was all set to pick the Texans in this one, and then Sir JJ of Watt broke his hand in training, and whilst he will be playing this weekend, I think this is one obstacle too many for the Texans. I don’t know if Rob Gronkowski will play, although he’s made the trip from New England to Houston, but it’s hard to see the Patriots losing three in a row for the first time in forever.

Gee ‘s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

Gaints @ Dolphins (+0.5)

The New York Giants seem to be a team that wins or loses off the back of which Eli Manning is playing and Odell Beckham making spectacular catches. I’m not sure if this will be enough to beat the Dolphins in Miami, but given their recent run of form and the problems in the Dolphins secondary I suspect it might.

Gee ‘s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Thoughts on Linebackers and Safeties

10 Thursday Dec 2015

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AJ Hawk, Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Deone Bucannon, Emmanuel Lamur, NFL, Rey Maualuga, Ryan Tannehill, Tyrann Mathieu, Vontaze Burfict, Week 14 Picks

The league is heading into the final quarter with only a number of teams still in the hunt for the playoffs, although things are beginning to settle. Even so, teams that are completely out of the playoff race are still generating plenty of headlines.

The Cleveland Browns on/off dalliance with Johnny Manziel being there starting quarterback only further demonstrates the dysfunction at the top of this franchise. There are rumours flying round of conflict between those who want Manziel to start, and those for whom he has already burned his bridges with. You can see how a coaching staff that will want to be getting hired again next year if they can’t secure their jobs this year, a coaching staff who want to win games, could come into conflict with a front office group who need to know what they have in an their first round pick from two years ago and whether it is time to move on already. The problem is that with the turnover in both coaches and front office staff, it is very hard to establish a culture and go through the process it takes to turn around a franchise in trouble, and very often it seems like when a team is turned into a success, this improvement is built off the back of previous regime’s work. That said, there has been such a carousel at quarterback and staff at the Browns that it is hard to know when things will turn round.

I don’t want to pile on to the poor Browns so I’ll stop using them as an example, but I did want to pick up on a couple of things from listening to the Ross Tucker podcast this week, without turning the column into an advert, and also tie this in with tonight’s exciting game between the Cardinals and the Vikings.

On his usual Wednesday spot, regular guest Andrew Brandt was speaking about why he was a fan of Chip Kelly, and specifically talked about him as an agent of change, and that this was a rare thing in a lot of aspects in coaching. This could be seen as a curious concept given how often we hear about coaching innovations, but it seems that very often what we hear described as innovation is in fact a new wrinkle or a variation on a concept. Spread offences and pass first offences are not a new concept, but the sophistication of modern schemes is, however equally you will hear from retired players that the technique at certain positions is in decline and that this could be due to the reduced amount of time that coaches get to work with their players, particularly in the more physical drills. I don’t want to delve too far into this, but what it did get me thinking about was that if you compare the sophistication with which coaches and management are dealing with the way that a football team is constructed and plays, versus the way the media breaks down the roster then maybe we are missing a trick or two.

There was a great discussion between Ross Tucker and Greg Cosell today about tonight’s game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Minnesota Vikings, and the bit that grabbed me was their discussion about Deone Bucannon who Cosell described as a 210 Ibs linebacker, although he’s listed on the Cardinals’ website as safety. Now they were talking about whether this was the future of the position, these what would be traditionally undersized linebackers who could cover and cope in this age of spread defences. One of the reasons I love Cosell is he’ll always state when hasn’t seen something or can’t speak on it, but also how he’ll remained balanced, and he countered Rot Tucker’s question on how much you needed heft at the point of attack these days with the way the league is going by saying that this is not absolutely the case and let’s not get ahead of ourselves. I don’t want to get pick holes with either of them as they both know more about football than me, the podcast can be found here, but it did get me thinking.

Firstly, this weekend I am going back to look at the coaching tape from last week’s Ravens @ Dolphins game as Dan would like me to take a look at Ryan Tannehill’s performance. Next week I think I will take a look at the Cardinal’s use of Bucannon and Tyrann Mathieu as I’ve been meaning to look at the Cardinals use of extra DBs in there defence for a while.

Secondly, the conversation about the future got me thinking again about linebacker groups, and something I have thought about before concerning them and the use of specialist safeties. I’ll apologise for bringing things back to the Bengals, but they are the team I watch week in and out, so in this case it easier to demonstrate what I am talking about by using them as an example in discussing the analysis of roster construction and how we talk about building a team.

In the offseason linebacker was one of the areas of concern for the Bengals as they had been banged up last season, had really struggled to defend the run when Rey Maualuga was out injured, plus Vontaze Burfict who had really come into his own was also injured and would be coming of microfracture surgery going into this season. The Bengals approach wasn’t to go out and secure a high price starting linebacker in free agency or draft a linebacker high, but neither was it to fill their roster with a middle linebacker, weak and strong side backers and then backups. Instead they drafted a linebacker, signed AJ Hawk as a free agent and resigned Maualuga. I know some were not sure about this approach, or what they did with the defensive line, but what was clever is that they built themselves a group with a set of complimentary skills and gave themselves depth. They have the ability to rotate their linebackers to have the right players for the job depending on who they are playing. Facing a team who power run up the gut, then that offence is going to have to deal with Rey Maualuga in the A gap, but if you’re facing a spread offence then you can drop into a nickel defence with the extra db, but also with a speedy linebacker like Emmanuel Lamur to help cover those linebackers who cause all those matchup problems.

For me this is an area where teams could innovate, that tweener safety/linebacker that so often was a concern in the draft, could become the new tool to help cover those nightmare tight ends and help deal with spread concepts. However, I’m wary of saying that is will become the new way of doing things. Sure you may have some lighter starters, but with this age of injury and increased difficulty for defences, maybe there is an edge to be found in crafting a linebacker group to have multiple types of player designed to rotate snaps in different amounts depending on the situation. I don’t think the days of the run stuffing middle linebacker are over, but possibly gone are the days when they are the star of the defence and play a lot of snaps, but if the balance in the NFL tips too far towards speed defences, then you can bet your bottom dollar that someone will start running power running games with success.

So I shall look forward to take a close look at the defence of the Cardinals as we go back into my picks competition with Dan, who slipped further behind again last week.

Gee: Week 13 10-6 Overall 101-91
Dan: Week 13 8-8 Overall 92-100

Vikings @ Cardinals (-7.5)

This is a really bad spot for the Vikings as they will be missing three starters on defence again this week, and the last thing they really need it so be travelling from Minnesota to Arizona to face a Cardinals team that is going from strength to strength. I would usually expect this to be a closer game, but with the match ups and timing favouring the Cardinals I am going to back them to cover this in a game I’m really looking forward to.

Gee ‘s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

What I Have Been Watching

31 Monday Aug 2015

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Andy Dalton, Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, Hard Knocks, Houston Texans, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles

I’m still catching up with games after my holiday, so it feels somewhat redundant to bringing your detailed round ups of the first week’s action with the third going on at the moment. Let’s face it, if you are coming here for your breaking news then I question your use of the internet. That said, there are still lots of relevant things to discuss as I take you through what I’ve been watching, and what I’ve been missing as well.

I’ll start with the Bengals, and whilst I’m hopeful that the defensive line rotation already looks more effective, and the first team offense look good as it marched down the field to get a touchdown on the opening drive.

What I really want to talk about here are quarterbacks. There is no question that everybody is waiting for Andy Dalton to backup his four playoff appearances in his first four seasons with a playoff win. In fact there’s no shortage of people calling for his head and saying that the Bengals should move on. However, whilst I’m not a Dalton apologist, I do think there is a more nuanced position to be taken in between the two camps.

There is no doubt that when is off, his play looks terrible. He can look lost, miss throws, and people question his leadership. The thing is that leadership is about how you do your job and get the best of those around you, and it doesn’t have to be done by shouting and leading from the front. But leadership also has to be earned, and in the recent seasons we seen the trend in the NFL has been to play quarterbacks much earlier and be less patient with them.

Now apart from the physical tools required to play the game, there is a huge quantity of data for a quarterback to process so he can execute the play for each play that he is on the field. To get good at this requires the right kind of brain, but also a huge number of reps, be them mental, practice, or in the game. There simply aren’t enough good quarterbacks to go round for a league of thirty-two, and so whilst everyone would love to have an elite franchise quarterback, you can win with above average quarterback play and I wonder how many players could win if they were in a situation where they were developed properly over time.

Last year’s playoff loss was horrible to watch, but the team were so injured in the skill positions when it came to receivers, that the offence couldn’t move the ball. Now at that point Dalton couldn’t throw the team better like Brady has done in the past. However, Brady is in the discussion as one of the best quarterbacks ever, and so let’s not throw Dalton out just yet.

Particularly as which of the Bengals’ quarterback would you replace him with? AJ McCarron had shoulder problems last year and has been troubled by a rib injury this season so I’ve yet to see him take a snap yet, even if his performance in game two was enough to have Josh Johnson released.

It was Josh Johnson’s performance that to me highlighted the problem of quarterbacking in this league. There were plays that he made with his arm and legs that demonstrated why he has hung around the league for six seasons already, but the lack of consistency was troubling. For me he is too quick to take off and use his legs, although he at least doesn’t take the kind of hits that are truly terrifying, but in the first game he threw two balls that should have been intercepted, and at least one if not both could have been returned for touchdowns.

It is coming towards the time where you may well have to decide that Dalton is not going to develop enough, and that it is time to move on, but I don’t think the Bengals are there yet. I am hopeful that with Hue Jackson going into his second year as offensive coordinator, that this team can get the playoff monkey off Dalton, and Marvin Lewis’ back.

So moving on from the Bengal’s first game, let us talk about preseason games and what I can see, as well as one of my favourite series around this time of year, namely Hard Knocks.

I haven’t been back to watch the years I wasn’t able to see, but as a football obsessive it doesn’t really matter who the team is as I love getting this glimpse of what is going on. This year is even better for me as we’re getting to watch JJ Watt in training, which should just be a series in of itself. However, I have enjoyed watching Bill O’Brien as a head coach, and it always nice to see the personalities behind the facemasks, which is all you see of so many players.

However, it has highlighted the problems of trying to analyse games deeply when you only have the TV copy, which is what you have for preseason on Gamepass. Through commentary, and replay you can see what’s going on if it is highlighted, but if you’re trying to look out for specific players, or watch certain coverage to figure out how s player got so wide open, it can be really difficult without the all twenty-two and end zone views. It also means that you tend to focus on skill players, and flashy defensive plays, but you miss a lot of what is going on around the lines or in the receiving game before the player catches the ball.

It is interesting to me that so often people seem to want their coaches to be all out disciplinarians, and that the term player’s coach is as often used more as a criticism than a complement. I have found it fascinating to watch the way Mike Vrabel has been coaching the Texans’ linebackers, and in particular Kourtnei Brown. I don’t want to single out Vrabel for criticism as he is working in a culture that he’s deeply steeped in, he was a really good player, and he is trying to bring out the best in his charges. But different people respond to different types of coaching, and I wonder if there was not a more nuanced way to approach the message he was trying to get across. That said, Brown had an amazing sequence of snaps in the third quarter of their game against the 49ers, getting two sacks along side multiple pressures as things really began to click for the NFL journeymen who may yet make the squad. I’ll be interested to see the rest of their games, and I shall make sure to have watched their third game before I watch the fourth episode of Hard Knocks as that is the only thing I am up to date with so far.

So, if I was frustrated by the camera angles in the Texans game as I was looking to spot the players I had been watching in Hard Knocks, the Colts at the Eagles was the game I made most notes about of the preseason week one games. I picked two teams because I wanted to look at their coaching thank to the offseason reading I had been done and this proved to be a good choice in this game.

The real proof of what Chip Kelly has been doing in the offseason will be how they perform in the games, and in this first preseason game, things looked pretty damn good. But what I really want to focus on this week is an aspect I particularly liked about the Eagles offence, and don’t worry folks, it wasn’t Tim Tebow.

There has been a lot of talk about how good Kelly’s system is, and that it is quarterback proof. I might not go that far as I don’t think any system can really cope with bad quarterback play, but it is really well structured, and what I really admired about it whilst watching this game was the commitment to deception, and specifically the run/pass questions it asked of the oppositions defence.

Apart from the use of quarterback options plays, if you watch the backfield of the Eagles, on almost every play the quarterback/running back gives you a look of the opposite of what they are doing. You have quarterbacks faking that they’ve kept the ball on run plays, play action passes, and draw plays. This commitment forces the defensive players to make a read on every play, which means they have to respect both possibilities and this can get you easy receptions just as much as route combinations designed to attack a particular coverage.

From what I can see, one of the reasons that rookie tight end Eric Tomlinson was wide open in the second quarter, was because Cam Johnson had to make a read on the play fake run as he dropped into coverage with Tomlinson, and so he was just a fraction late, taking too flat of an angle to make a tackle on the Eagles tight end and so what could have been a short gain goes for nineteen yards.

The pace of the Eagles’ offence is really hard to judge on the condensed view, other than that the coverage is frequently scrambling to catch up and a number of plays were missed or picked up half way through as they were too quick for the TV team who were still looking at the previous play, so you can see how it can stress a defence.

The final game I watched from the first week was the Chiefs at the Cardinals, and in this is the hardest for me to comment on. The Cardinals have had a change in defensive coordinator this year, and the number of defensive backs that they were typically using last year in combination with the way they rushed the passer is something that’s really hard to look out without really going over game film rather than the TV game footage.

However, it was really nice to Carson Palmer back and playing, and you can see the potential in Logan Thomas, certainly with his arm, but he still needs time to develop. The team moved the ball well with the first team, but I shall be really interested to see how they develop going forward, and hopefully will get a better understanding of what Bruce Arians is planning for the upcoming season.

I have a lot more games to watch, as I try to catch up with the NFL, but going over games isn’t exactly a chore. So roll on more games, the season is coming!

A Coach’s Time of Year

09 Sunday Aug 2015

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Arizona Cardinals, Bruce Arians, Chip Kelly, Cincinnati Bengals, Houston Texans, JJ Watt, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles, Training Camp

With training camps open across the NFL, I have been looking back at my offseason reading and thinking about something that is talked about in America when comparing the major sports. It is often said that baseball is a GMs’ league, basketball is a players’ league, but that the NFL is a coaches’ league. This is an oversimplification for all of the sports, but in the NFL the level of competition is such that a coach can only do so much to overcome a real deficit in talent given how fine the margins are between winning, but this is the part of the season where a coach really demonstrates what does make the NFL a coaches’ league.

A football coach has to be more than just someone who gives an inspired half-time speech, in fact there is only so often he can pull that trick given the frequency of games, and how often it is do or die time. In fact it seems to me that there is so much to do for a head coach that we routinely oversimplify their role when judging them. There are thousands of hours of planning, preparation, and training that goes into getting a team to the game, yet alone managing the play calls, in-game adjustments, the clock, and liaising with your team of coaches. There is so much more to their job than whether you should run or pass a yard out from the end zone with twenty-six seconds left in the Super Bowl, although when you have one of the best short yardage backs in the game perhaps you should have run.

However, whilst there has been talk of how the Seahawks are going to come back from that loss, and the scars that decision will have left on Pete Carroll, having read Carroll’s book on his coaching philosophy I think that this has been over blown. His whole coaching philosophy is built round competition, and specifically always competing to win forever. I don’t know how many NFL coaches have gone away, sat down and deliberately written down their philosophy in such a structured way, but I’m pretty sure that a focus around always competing with yourself to do things better than they have been done before is likely to deal with a set back like losing the Super Bowl in such a heart breaking manner pretty well.

So why is this time of year so important to the coaches? The answer is pretty straight forward, time. During the marathon of the season there is so much time spent dealing with recovery, installing the game plan, travel, and dealing with matters that crop up that there is only so much time a coach can spend actually working with their players. It is in training camp where a coach gets to work for a prolonged period setting the tone for the upcoming season. It is also the time where a coach has almost double his game day roster, and so whilst you never want to over work your players, it is possible to get a huge amount of work done and to get in all the reps you want. This is where there is time to work on technique, getting the rookies and free agents steeped in how your team plays football, the calls, the structure of your playbook, and getting your timing down. These are all standard parts of training camp that remain true even if the old fashioned two-a-day practices and some of the more confrontational contact drills are becoming relics of the past.

There has been talk for years that the preseason is too long, and that coaches only two of the pre-season games to get their teams ready. I wouldn’t presume to know if this is true or not, but just trying to keep up with the news coming out of a training camp is a mission in itself. Like much of the pre-season content, it is filled with optimism. Players that are in the best shape of their lives, players on the come back trail from injury, the new picks looking good already. The proof is coming though, we have the NFL Hall of Fame game tonight, and next we’ll start getting actual football.

I wrote last year about how there is plenty to fascinate during the offseason and I am really looking forward to the up-coming preseason. It was quite hard for me to narrow down the teams I was going to watch through the preseason, but in the end I managed to get the list down to four. The Bengals were a given, and they are the team that I will understand best due to following them with the obsessive interest of the fan. The next obvious team was the Houston Texans, not just because I am such a huge fan of JJ Watt, but because they are this year’s team being covered by the TV series Hard Knocks. I will be fascinated to see how Watt practices as his work ethic is widely praised, but it will also be great to follow the series and watch all the games.

I am planning to watch two more teams, and after my offseason reading it was actually fairly easy to identify the theme if not whittle down to the two remaining teams. It became obvious to me that what I love about Football is not just the physicality and spectacle, but the tactics involved and the coaching that going into the games. So if I was going to focus on well coached teams who would be the other teams I would watch this season?

The Cardinals managed to get to the playoffs despite losing two starting quarterbacks and in my opinion were one of the best coached teams of last year. They have lost their defensive coordinator as Todd Bowles has become head coach of the New York Jets, but given the fantastic job Bruce Arians and his staff did I really want to take a look at them this preseason. It is also going to be interesting to see what effect the hiring of the NFL’s first female coach will have, even if it is only for the span of training camp. Doctor Jen Welter has played professional football for fourteen years, has a master’s degree in sports psychology and PhD in psychology, and so is a pretty incredible person just from the get go so I hope things go well with her working with the inside linebackers during camp.

The other team I am going to be watching is one that has dominated the offseason news when it has not been focussed on deflated footballs or other matters of league discipline management. I first really went all in with Chip Kelly whilst listening to him on the Ross Tucker’s podcast, and I was seriously impressed. However, since he’s been given the GM responsibility Kelly has demonstrated that he is not afraid to do things his way, but I’m not entirely sold. At the start of the offseason moves I could see an underlying plan, that he would trust his system to generate offense, and that he would invest in players on the defensive side of the ball. Then Kelly started signing expensive running backs and letting go of starting offensive linemen. There is also the small matter of not having an established starter at quarterback and not making the playoffs last season. I will be fascinated to watch what all the turmoil of the offseason produces this year, and shall have to make a point of watching the TV feed for some of their games as you simply do not pick up the tempo difference between the Eagles’ offence and other teams when you are watching the condensed cut or coaches’ tape.

So roll on the first game this evening as the football season gets closer and closer to starting.

NFL Wildcard Preview

03 Saturday Jan 2015

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Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens, Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Indianapolis Colts, NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers, Wildcard Weekend

I got up early on Monday to watch the condensed Bengals at Steelers without knowing the score, and was thoroughly miserable about the result, so it was with some reluctance that I went through the final sheet of my picks spreadsheet. However, thanks to the late games, I managed to pull two games back on Dan, and so despite being behind for most of the season I managed to pull out a one game win. This happiness lasted for an hour or two before my worry about the upcoming weekend began to set in.

Still, we now come to the part of the year where I get to see all the games so let’s take a look at the upcoming Wildcard Weekend.

Cardinals @ Panthers

DVOA: Cardinals Panthers

Overall 22^nd                              25^th
Offensive 23^rd                              20^th
Defensive 7^th                                15^th
Special Teams 21^st                              30^th

There are times when trying to follow an entire league where you get things wrong. The human brain is used to looking for patterns and narratives, and we are also used to putting labels on things and leaving them there. In something as complicated as sport this can be a problems as we often try to fit a narrative to random events, but it is also possible to miss the development of a team across the season if you are not watching carefully enough. I have seen every play of the Bengals season so far, but it is simply not possible for me to do this for thirty-two teams. Looking back, I still had the impression I got watching the Panthers in week six in mind when I wrote about them last week, and this is despite going through the coaching tape that told a different story in week nine.

I went back and watched them beat up on the Falcons in the final game of the season to get them into the playoffs, and I think is going to be an interesting game. The Panthers are playing better football now than they were in mid-season. The defence has really come together with a physical front seven that is now getting a pass rush, and a young secondary that seems to have coalesced into a functional unit. They may only be ranked fifteenth by DVOA, but I would suggest they are playing better than that currently and they are an impressive unit.

On offence, the Panthers seem to have carved themselves an identity as a running team. They use multiple run options from within the same play, and I’m amazed at how much Cam Newton is running considering that it really isn’t that long ago that he sustain fractures to part of his back in a car crash. He is still firing the ball in the passing game, but there is a little more touch, but mainly there seems to be a coherent identity that is working for this team. They are going up against a run defence that is ranked seventh in the league, but that did give up a pair of two hundred yard games at the end of the season so they may be able to make this work in this game.

The Cardinals have limped their way into the playoffs, and despite having an 11-5 record, this is going to be a much closer game than the gap in regular season win total might suggest. The Cardinals coaching staff have done a brilliant job in coping with injuries, but having powered away to a 9-1 start, their season has limped home and it looks like the week fifteen injury to Drew Stanton was a quarterback too far.

The Cardinals have struggled in the run game for most of the year, but having first lost their vertical passing game when Carson Palmer went down for a second and final time, the loss of Drew Stanton has seriously hampered this unit. Whilst Ryan Lindley can make some good looking throws, he also routinely makes bad decisions and is 0-2 as a starter for the Cardinals, whilst throwing two touchdowns to four interceptions. He will be going against a physical defence that I suspect will be able to get turnovers against a young and inexperienced quarterback.

The defence has been the foundation of the Cardinals season, and ranked inside the top ten by DVOA for most of the season. It is a unit that uses a large number of defensive backs and pressure to force mistakes and cover the modern passing game. They rely on their corners standing up in outside coverage so they can frequently blitz and this pressure has only increased as defensive coordinator Todd Bowles seems to have been given licence to take more risks given the issues the Cardinals are having on the offensive side of the ball.

I think that this should be a fascinating game between two teams with really good defences and I will be interested to see how the Cardinals cope with the Panthers running attack, and how they try to attack the Panthers defence.

Ravens @ Steelers

DVOA: Ravens Steelers

Overall                        5^th                                8^th
Offensive                    ^9th                                 2^nd
Defensive                    8^th                                30^th
Special Teams             2^nd                                12^th
The Saturday schedule is rounded out with what should be a bruising encounter between AFC North rivals.

The Steelers have had an erratic season with some huge wins, and horrible losses to bad teams, but they managed to win out in December to take the division. They have mainly done this behind an offence that is ranked second in the league by DVOA, and that can be truly terrifying. The problem is that a major cog in that offence, second year back Le’Veon Bell, who has looked like the best back in the league for long stretches of the season is going to miss this game with a knee injury he picked up in the final game against the Bengals. However, the way to attack this Ravens defence is through the air as their secondary has been hit hard by injuries, and the Steelers have the passing attack to do this. Whether they will be able to use the empty backfield sets with the running back split out as a receiver remains to be seen, but Antonio Brown is as good as any receiver in the league. The o-line has looked much more solid than has often been the case in recent Steelers seasons, and they will need to stand up in pass protection if they are going to have success this week.

Unusually for the Steelers, the defence has been the problem this season, ranked an uncharacteristic thirtieth by DVOA, they have been patchy with injuries and age apparently catching up with them. They have done okay in recent weeks and it has been noticeable that they have been leaving the younger secondary players in the line-up so they have consistent personnel rather than having the stalwarts Ike Taylor and Troy Polamalu go in and out the line-up whilst they have been struggling with injuries. It is a sign of the problems that the Steelers have had that they pulled James Harrison out of retirement, but whilst he has shown flashes of his old self and has managed five and a half sacks in eleven games, this is a defence that has been merely coping for large parts of the season.

The Ravens are an interesting team that for large parts of the season looked like the most complete team in the AFC North, but couldn’t quite overcome the problems they developed in the secondary to win the division.

On offence the Ravens have looked good for most of the year, working behind a rejuvenated running game that saw Justin Forsett gain 1266 yards for the season, and a very solid season in the passing game. Joe Flacco has quietly thrown for nearly four thousands yards, and more importantly has throw twenty-seven touchdowns with only twelve interceptions. Steve Smith has been struggled to maintain the early hot start he had, but managed to gain over a thousand yards receiving and added some fire to the offence to go with Torrey Smith and Owen Daniels. This turn around from a DVOA ranking of thirtieth last year demonstrates what a good hire Gary Kubiak was as offensive coordinator.

The problem for the Ravens down the stretch has been the number of injuries they’ve had in the secondary. They have got away with this to an extent as they haven’t really faced a tough passing attack but this is going to change this week. The Ravens will have to hope that the fearsome combination of Elvis Dummervil and Terrell Suggs as pass rushers will get enough pressure to disrupt Ben Roethlisberger and his receivers. It may well help that they are getting Haloti Ngata back from a four game suspension, particularly as the rookie tackle Timmy Jernigan who has been playing so well in Ngata’s absence will miss the game with a foot injury.

Whilst I would never discount the Ravens, I fear that their secondary will be exposed in this game and whilst Le’Veon Bell will be a huge miss for the Steelers, I think their passing game is more terrifying than anything the Ravens have to offer.

Bengals @ Colts

DVOA: Bengals Colts

Overall                        13^th                              12^th
Offensive                    18^th                              17^th
Defensive                    14^th                              13^th
Special Teams             6^th                                8^th
The Colts are an interesting case as if you look at the DVOA rankings, you would think this is a well balanced team. However, this is a team that is built on a couple of exceptionally good players that are masking what is to me an unconvincing roster. These are brave words considering the beating they gave the Bengals earlier in the season and how rotten the Bengals playoff results in recent years have been, but I will try to justify them below.

I’m not sure there is a team that relies more on their quarterback to win than the Colts. They have a running game that is ranked twenty-seventh in the league, and are a team who thought it was a good idea to trade a first round pick for Trent Richardson. This team goes where Andrew Luck takes them, but the o-line does not give him great protection and it is only because TY Hilton is amazing at getting open, and the support Coby Fleener and an ageing Reggie Wayne give in the passing game that Luck is able to drag them along. However, Luck has been throwing a lot of interceptions recently and has been having a big problem with fumbles. There is no question that Luck is a really good quarterback, but he can only overcome so much and this team ask him to do a lot.

On defence the Colts have played well in patches, and have a really good corner in Vontae Davis, but in truth I am surprised by their ranking by DVOA. That said, if you look at their record you can see problems against better teams as they got pounded by the Patriots in the run game, giving up 246 yards as part of five hundred yard day, and they gave up over six hundred yards against the Steelers. The Bengals have been running the ball really well recently behind rookie Jeremy Hill and they will need to hold up against this if they want to win.

The Bengals have coped pretty well since losing both coordinators from last year, but having said that it was a playoff win or bust this year, it all comes down to this game.

On offence, the talk of a commitment to the running game that there was in the offseason has solidified in recent weeks around a running game headed up by rookie Jeremy Hill with Giovani Bernard spelling him. There have been problems in the passing game with AJ Green battling injuries for large parts of the seasons and I suspect he will miss this game with a concussion. This is almost a microcosm of the problems this season as he’s been battling a bicep injury he sustained going for a ball that sailed on Andy Dalton, and picked up the concussion when trying to fight for yards at the end of the Steelers game. The problem with Andy Dalton is that whilst he has got his team into the playoffs for the first four years of his career, he can be inconsistent and these problems tend to surface in big games. That said, the Bengals looked good in getting their Monday night win against the Broncos, and new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is really helping Dalton succeed by focussing on the running game and asking him to do less, whilst it often felt like Jay Gruden was asking him to do too much in past years. The Patriots demonstrated that you can be physical and run on the Colts so hopefully this can work in this game.

On defence, the Bengals have slipped with the departure of Mike Zimmer to be head coach of the Vikings, and have struggled against the run for large parts of the season. They are top ten in pass defence, which is a measure of how good and deep their secondary is as the pass rush has been patchy all season. However, injuries at linebacker, particularly missing Vontaze Burfict for most of the season has really hurt them in the run game. The defence line has not been quite up to where it was last season, but Geno Atkins is still coming back to full form since his ACL injury and Margus Hunt has been out recently as they try to patch up the loss of Michael Geathers to the Buccaneers.

I think that the Bengals can finally win this game, and get revenge for the shut out loss earlier in the season. Both the Bengals and the Panthers came out flat the week after they played five quarters of football, and I think this contributed to the Bengals horrible loss against the Colts. If the Bengals can look after the ball and run the ball effectively, then they can finally get that playoff win and try to push on, but I would never count out a team with Andrew Luck at quarterback.

Lions @ Cowboys

DVOA: Lions Cowboys

Overall                        14^th                              6^th
Offensive                    19^th                              4^th
Defensive                    3^rd                                22^nd
Special Teams             31^st                              13^th
The final game of the weekend pits the Cowboys great offence against the Lions top notch defence.

The Cowboys finally got their winning season, but the overhaul on this team was not flashy, it was a sustained investment in the offensive line, which has resulted in one of the most impressive units in the league. The o-line enabled DeMarco Murray to break Emmitt Smith’s single season rushing record for the Cowboys and enabled him to become the only back to start the season with eight straight 100 yard games, breaking Jim Brown’s previous best of six. Not only have done this, but Tony Romo regularly gets such great protection that he can sit in the pocket for five or six seconds without having to worry about the oppositions pass rush. That said, they are going against the third ranked offense by DVOA, that will offer them a real challenge, but Romo has had more support than he’s ever had, and the results in the pass game have flourished alongside the running attack.

The Cowboys defence however, has been held together by smoke and mirrors all season, with co-ordinator Rod Marinelli crafting a credible defence with a dearth of talent. They are not spectacular, but they are playing hard for their coach who has been working overtime to create way to rush the passer and keep his team in games. This unit may be a problem if the Cowboys get deeper into the playoffs, but they might not be in this game.

The Lions have all the talent at the skill positions to be a good offence, even if Calvin Johnson has struggled with injury as they finally have a second receiver to go with him. In fact, Golden Tate has actually led the team in receiving yards and receptions this year, but the problem for this unit has been the o-line that has often struggled and this unit has never quite taken off except from when they’ve played the Bears. The other problem is that Matthew Stafford has never really convinced as a quarterback, and he has a habit of locking onto receivers, and whilst this is not exactly a bad plan when you are throwing to Calvin Johnson, it doesn’t necessarily win you the big game.

What has been winning games for this team has been the defence that I would have said was playing with more discipline this season. However, how Ndamukong Suh won his appeal having stomped on Aaron Rodgers I do not know. He has been part of a fearsome defensive line that has helped this defence lead the league in run defence by DVOA. They also have one of the league’s standout coverage linebackers in DeAndre Levy, and a pass defence that has been just as good as the rush defence.

This could very well be the game of the weekend, but I would think you just have to trust Tony Romo more than Mattew Stafford, who is 0-16 on the road against teams with a winning record. I’m not usually a fan of these kinds of statistics, but that one does seem to speak of a problem.

I’m really looking forward to this week’s games, so roll on the postseason football.

NFL Week 15: Cardinals @ Rams Recap

14 Sunday Dec 2014

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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Arizona Cardinals, Bruce Arians, Larry Fitzgerald, NFL, St. Louis Rams

This was a strange game that never quite took off, although it remained a tight contest right to the end. The problem was that whilst I love defence and both teams posses really good ones, neither of them had good enough offences to provide a consistent challenge to the opposition.

Both defences were ranked in the top ten by DVOA coming into this week, but they got there in very different ways. The Rams are built on a pretty terrifying front seven and a defensive line that can get consistent pressure with a standard pass rush. The Cardinals however, are built from the secondary forwards, and rely on their corners to stand up in coverage whilst they consistently bring extra people to rush the passer. In fact I have never seen a cornerback blitz as frequently as Jerraud Powers did in this game, and at the end of the game I saw him rush three straight times, on the final one sealing the game when he batted down a pass. It is also worth mentioning that Greg Cosell said in his spot on the Ross Tucker Football podcast this week that he thinks that the Rams safety pairing of T.J. McDonald and Rodney McLeod are as good as any pair in the league, and as he gets to watch the coaching tape and I didn’t this week, I have no reason to disbelieve him.

Neither of these teams have the starting quarterback they expected for the season, with the Rams losing Sam Bradford in preseason and the Cardinals’ Carson Palmer going down in week ten in their previous meeting with the Rams. I have written about what a good job Bruce Arians has done coaching the Cardinals this season, and this was the case again in this game when the Cardinals lost Drew Stanton with a sprained knee after taking a sack from Aaron Donald with Eugene Sims and Alec Ogletree also in on the play. This is not the first time that Arians has been down to his third string quarterback, yet his team won the game and stand atop of the murderous NFC West with an 11-3 record.

There were no touchdowns scored in this game as neither team could get through the oppositions red-zone defence or get a long play for a touchdown. There was consistent pressure but only three sacks total in the game, and they generated virtually identical amounts of yards in offence. However, whilst both teams had the occasional good looking pass amongst the bad ones, with the Rams having the better results of the two, the Cardinals protected the ball better as they did not turn the ball over whilst the Rams gave up an interception and one of their two fumbles. The Cardinals were also able to run the football more effectively, generating 143 of their 274 yards from thirty-three attempts and controlling the clock with a nine minute advantage in time of possession.

It was in these small advantages that the Cardinals were able to eek out the win. The long punt return that Ted Ginn broke early in the third quarter was not capitalised upon in the ensuing drive, in fact the Cardinal went three and out, but after forcing the Rams to punt on the next drive they were able to win the field position battle and kick a field goal. It was this consistent play if anything that won them the game, after being held scoreless in the first quarter, they continued to get points in each quarter whilst the Rams could only bookend the game with field goals in the first and fourth quarters.

There were some excellent catches made in this game from both teams, but the real highlight of the game other was a career milestone when Larry Fitzgerald became the youngest receiver ever to catch nine hundred passes in the NFL. This should have occurred on a proper highlight play as Stanton dropped a lovely ball through bracket coverage to Fitzgerald for twenty-seven yards with a seven man rush coming, but unfortunately he only had time to do this as centre Lyle Sendlein held defensive tackle Kendall Langford as he burst through between Sendlein and right guard Ted Larsen.

This is another season for the Rams where they are finishing strongly and demonstrating that if they can just get a quarterback, they would be a real team to watch, but they have to find the answer at quarterback and they haven’t done so yet. The Cardinals look to be heading to the playoffs, although whether then can make a splash given their injury status is anybody’s guess, but I certainly wouldn’t bet against it given how consistently they have proved me wrong when I have doubted them.

The Wrong Football

~ A UK American Football fan writes about the game he loves

Tag Archives: Arizona Cardinals

Heroes, and the Divisional Weekend

Buccaneers @ Rams, Amateur Adventures in Film, and Week 15 Picks

Vikings at Cardinals, and Week 14 Picks

Thoughts on Linebackers and Safeties

What I Have Been Watching

A Coach’s Time of Year

NFL Wildcard Preview

NFL Week 15: Cardinals @ Rams Recap