Dan and I both had winning weeks in the picks competition, and I’m particularly pleased to pick up ten points in a thirteen game week. The pair of us are solidly over fifty percent at the moment, but who knows if we’ll be able to maintain that for another eleven weeks.
Gee:
Week 7: 10 – 3
Overall: 58 – 49
Dan:
Week 7: 8 – 5
Overall: 56 – 51
Packers @ Cardinals (-5.5)
This could be completely the wrong way to approach this game, particularly as the Packers are dealing with receivers Davante Adam and Allen Lazard going on the Covid-19 list as well as defensive coordinator Joe Barry, but while this line is slightly better than the consensus I’m seeing online it still seems like a lot for Cardinals to cover. I can definitely see given their record and the situation in Green Bay that they are favourites, but I keep looking at those numbers and going, yeah but the Packers have Aaron Rodgers. Throw out the first game of the season and the Packers are unbeaten, and whilst that first game definitely counts it shouldn’t have too much influence and even missing one of the best receivers in the game this line is just that bit too rich for me. I could easily regret this, and I absolutely know that this is not how I advocate making decisions, but I just don’t want to go against the Packers giving Rodgers this many points.
Gee’s Pick: Packers Dan’s Pick: Cardinals
Survivor Competition
Dan and I held serve in week seven, with the Rams beating the Lions for Dan and the Bucs taking care of the Bears for me. Dan is going for a radically different, and some might suggest overly bold strategy of going against the Eagles this week as he thinks the Lions are getting their first win. It’s certainly an approach, although I do wonder if he remembers this is a competition that is supposed to be based on a survivor pool so it’s certainly not one I’m going to replicate right now. I am hoping that any concern Dan might have about my pick will be compensated for by the reverse jinx potential as given Dan’s statements on the pod and the pick rankings I use, I am going for the Bills to beat the Dolphins. I can certainly handle dropping a point in this competition if the Dolphins get a win and not just because of my bold prediction.
Current Score
Gee: 6 Dan: 4
Week 8 Selection:
Gee: Bills Dan: Lions
Bold Prediction of the Week
As ever I was struggling with a bold prediction despite my big win last week, but I was eventually allowed to plump for the Dolphins keeping the score to within a touchdown against the Bills so I basically get to be on both sides of this game.
Given that Teddy Bridgewater was dealing with a foot and quad injuries whilst the Browns were down to a third string running back and backup quarterback, it’s perhaps not surprising that Thursday night was not a high scoring affair. However, Browns’ running back D’Ernest Johnson took his prime-time opportunity to show exactly what he could do, running for one hundred and forty-six yards and torturing the Broncos run defence all game. In fact, the Broncos’’ defence struggled all evening, not helped by Von Miller exiting the game late in the second quarter with a sprained ankle. Even though the numbers were not spectacular, Case Keenum ran the Browns offence effectively and in the first half it looked like the Browns were going to win by a lot, but the Broncos finally got going in the second half and were able to turn the contest into a close game that they ultimately lost 14-17. This was the Broncos’ fourth straight loss after a strong start to the season and they really need to find something in this long week to turn things round. I was really impressed with the quality of the Browns’ performance given the injuries they are dealing with and the Browns are at very least going to be a difficult team to face all year and are still in the hunt in a competitive AFC.
As I turn my attention to picks it looks like a week of lines I really don’t like but in my infinite wisdom I didn’t give Dan and I the options of staying away, which is definitely what I want to do with a large chunk of these picks.
Early Games:
I was already looking at the Bengals visit to the Baltimore Ravens as the matchup of week, and in a slightly unusual moment it seems the American media agree with me. The Bengals at 4-2 remain in contention for the division, which is not what I was expecting from them and although the offence is somewhat boom or bust, the defence is ranked fifth by DVOA and the Bengals have been in every game this season with their two losses coming by field goals. However, the Ravens have the best record in the AFC and looked truly terrifying against the Chargers last week. The defence is only ranked fourteenth, which is a little surprising, but the offence is top ten and Lamar Jackson looks better dropping back to pass and has been less reliant on his ability to amaze running the ball. I’m really hoping that the Bengals can keep this one competitive on the road and whilst I would be delighted with a win, it would be a big surprise, but the Bengals have been a surprise package so far this season and that in of itself is a positive step given their recent record.
The next game I want to discuss is not exactly the matchup you would have thought looking through the schedule before the season started, but the Titans hosting the Chiefs has the potential for a fun offensive contest given that the Chiefs’ defence ranks thirty-first in the league by DVOA and the Titans’ is a lofty twenty-eighth. It’s hard to see the Chiefs’ defence stopping Derrick Henry who continues to prove himself a statistical outlier immune to the usual rules of workload for running backs and somehow was the fastest player carrying the ball last week while being two-hundred and fifty or so pounds. However, while the Chiefs struggled last week, they may have found something late in their game against Washington using 12 personnel to improve the protection of Patrick Mahomes. This game has the potential to be a great shoot out, except if the Chiefs get rolling I’m not sure Derrick Henry is the right player to keep up with the Chiefs explosive offence despite his capacity to take the ball to the end zone on almost any given play. I’m looking forward to watching this one, but I’m not enjoying picking it at all!
Points from the rest:
The vaunted Washington defence from last season is currently ranked twenty-ninth by DVOA and the offence is not exactly a hung amount better so the big question in this game is likely to be whether the Packers can cover this line unless Washington show some rapid improvement.
The Dolphins come back from London having lost to the Jaguars and with a swirl of rumours about a potential trade for Deshaun Watson. The Falcons are coming off a bye having won their own London game and while neither team are good right now, the Dolphins were meant to be competing this season but haven’t looked like it for much of the season. However, there is something in the line, and I really didn’t think Tua Tagovailoa played that bad last week and with trade rumours swirling I’m sure the embattled QB is looking to prove his worth in this one.
The Patriots look to have their replacement for Tom Brady, and the Pats have competed in some big games this season but so far they have only two wins so the seven and a half points they are laying looks troubling. That is until you remember the Pats have already blown out the Jets on the road and Bill Belichick’s record against rookie quarterbacks. I do wonder if this line is too high, but backing the Jets as underdogs has bitten me too often over the years to back them in this one.
The Panthers have a top ten defence by DVOA but are a very mixed bag on offence and have slipped to 3-3 from a 3-0 start. However, the Giants are both bad and injured so I can’t back them even getting points at home given the Panthers have a genuine strength to gameplan with.
Washington @ Packers (-9.5)
Gee’s Pick: Packers Dan’s Pick: Packers
Chiefs @ Titans (+4.5)
Gee’s Pick: Titans Dan’s Pick: Titans
Falcons @ Dolphins (+2.5)
Gee’s Pick: Dolphins Dan’s Pick: Falcons
Jets @ Patriots (-7.5)
Gee’s Pick: Patriots Dan’s Pick: Patriots
Panthers @ Giants (+2.5)
Gee’s Pick: Panthers Dan’s Pick: Panthers
Bengals @ Ravens (-6.5)
Gee’s Pick: Bengals Dan’s Pick: Bengals
Late Games:
There isn’t really a great game in the late slate of games, although there could be some interesting narratives.
The Raiders won their first game after the Jon Gruden resignation, but now we must see if they are coalescing as a team or if that was a one-week bounce. I have heard some commentary that the Raiders have been finding themselves in a position where people are able to get on with their jobs rather than having Gruden involved as he was to an unusual amount across the franchise before his very public fall from grace. The Eagles are not a good football team but are coming off a long week having lost on Thursday night and then trading Zach Ertz to the Cardinals. I like the Raiders to win this game and the line definitely concerns me but given how the Eagles have been playing I’m going to reluctantly back the Raiders.
The LA Rams game is all about the narrative given they swapped quarterbacks with the Lions in the offseason and Matthew Stafford has looked great running Sean McVay’s offence. The Lions up to last week had kept all their games close and were a tough team to play, but the Bengals of all teams beat them comfortably enough that head coach Dan Campbell came out and said he needed more from Jared Goff. It must be so disorientating for Goff, who went to the Super Bowl with the Rams in 2018 but hasn’t looked the same since and now finds himself on a rebuilding Lions team. Goff looks to be the kind of quarterback who needs everything around him to be right rather than a player who elevates those around him. This line is enormous, and it will be telling if the Lions get blown out again, but I can’t back all of the big favourites this week and something about Goff facing his old team has me taking the points.
Points on the Rest:
The Cardinals are 6-0 and should have more than enough to beat a Texans team who beat the Jaguars in week one and been competitive in exactly one game since against the Patriots. The line makes me incredibly nervous given how easy it would be for the Cardinals to take the Texans too lightly but having lost by twenty-eight to the 2-4 Colts I can’t bring myself to back the Texans.
The Buccaneers should have no problem in beating the Bears, but with Antonio Brown out injured alongside the slew of corners and the Bears having a top ten defence by DVOA I think the Bears can keep this one within two touchdowns.
Eagles @ Raiders (-3.5)
Gee’s Pick: Raiders Dan’s Pick: Raiders
Lions @ Rams (-15.5)
Gee’s Pick: Lions Dan’s Pick: Rams
Texans @ Cardinals (-16.5)
Gee’s Pick: Cardinals Dan’s Pick: Cardinals
Bears @ Buccaneers (-13.5)
Gee’s Pick: Bears Dan’s Pick: Bears
Sunday Night Football:
Colts @ 49ers (-3.5)
I am intrigued about this game and will definitely be watching it even if it does see the 2-4 Colts visiting the 2-3 49ers coming off a bye. The 49ers will have Jimmy Garoppolo back at quarterback, which they need with rookie Trey Lance being out with a knee sprain. The Colts have put together good performances the last two weeks and I’m genuinely looking forward to seeing how they do against a 49ers team who are ranked tenth overall by DVOA despite all the injuries. It may not be a great sounding matchup given their records, but there’s plenty to take away from this one.
Gee’s Pick: Colts Dan’s Pick: Colts
Monday Night Football
Saints @ Seahawks (+4.5)
Here we are, Monday night and the big quarterback matchup is Jameis Winston versus Geno Smith. Perhaps more worrying for the Seahawks given that Smith has given the Seahawks competent play at quarterback, is the problems they are having on defence, ranked as they are twenty-second by DVOA and built around a safety in Jamal Adams who is a liability in coverage and who costs them multiple first-round picks in a trade. The Seahawks ranking of ninth overall and sixth on offence must surely slip by the time Russell Wilson returns from the finger injury on his throwing hand. That said, the Saints are a hard team to read this season as they are alternating wins and losses before going on bye last week. The familiar on the field up and down play of Jameis Winston has not disappeared under Sean Payton but the defence is ranked an impressive third by DVOA and you feel like the Saints should win this one. The line does make me nervous given Winston’s history, although I should say he has a four to one touchdown to interception rating but a 60.3 completion percentage. Part of me wonders if the Seahawks can keep it close, but I feel like Sean Payton is going to be able to find too many things against this Seahawks defence, which combined with his own defence going against Geno Smith means I’m going to eventually back the Saints.
Gee’s Pick: Saints Dan’s Pick: Saints
DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.
We are a third of the way through the regular season, and after a bad week Dan has reeled in what was a five point lead to tie up the picks competition but there is still a long way to go.
Gee:
Week 6: 5 – 9
Overall: 48 – 46
Dan:
Week 6: 7 – 7
Overall: 48 – 46
Broncos @ Browns (-3.5)
The Broncos strong start to the season has tailed off as the opposition has got tougher whilst the Browns are dealing with a multitude of injuries on offence and a defence that ranks thirteenth by DVOA in spite of the hopes many had for it coming into the season. For all that Baker Mayfield is toughing out the shoulder injury in his non-throwing shoulder, with both of their top two running backs out, the Browns are really struggling and a short week is not exactly what they need. The Broncos really need to halt their slide and get back to winning ways, but if you look at their schedule the run does make sense. I know that Dan has gone back and forth multiple times on this one but settled on the Broncos, which matches what I’m seeing in the lines and so he’ll at least have company if the Browns do overcome the injuries to get the win.
Gee’s Pick: Broncos Dan’s Pick: Broncos
Survivor Competition
I was surprised that Dan went with the Dolphins against the Jaguars last week and him falling a further point behind is very much the least of his concerns surrounding football at the moment, but he has changed tack this week by picking against a new team, this time going against the winless Lions as they are visiting the Rams. There are a number of large lines this week that offer up possible survivor picks, and the Cardinals are tempting, except at 6-0 they might be due a loss at some point even if you don’t expect it. Anyway, I’ve settled on the Buccaneers hosting the Bears so here’s hoping they don’t let me down.
Current Score
Gee: 5 Dan: 3
Week 7 Selection:
Gee: Buccaneers Dan: Rams
Bold Prediction of the Week
So I always find this difficult and was clearly feeling the pressure whilst recording the podcast as my bold prediction this week is the Bengals to beat th Ravens… What was I thinking?
Week six started with a game that didn’t look that competitive on paper as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travelled to Philadelphia to take on the Eagles, and when the Bucs went up 28-7 in the third quarter it certainly looked ominous but in the final twenty minutes the Eagles got some stops on defence and scored a couple of touchdowns to ultimately lose by one score 22-28. Part of the reason that happened was because head coach and play caller Nick Siranni suddenly remembered that running back Miles Sanders could actually run the ball. Previous to that the offence had only revolved around Jalen Hurts running and taking deep shots that seemed to be more effective at getting penalty yards than actual passing completions. The Eagles are not a good team right now, and I would question the way they are trying to run their offence, but there are glimmers of something there.
As for the Bucs, they are looked ominously good on offence for three quarters but seemed to bog down for the final quarter, although to the surprise of no Tom Brady was able to close out the game with a clock killing drive. There will be sterner tests of the injured Bucs’ secondary, but the rush defence was excellent and against even a slightly slower quarterback Shaq Barrett would have had multiple sacks. It may be that the injuries sink the Bucs at some point but right now they are still managing to look like Super Bowl champions thanks to the play of their offence.
So with that said about the Thursday night game let’s turn our eyes to the Sunday matchups.
Early Games:
We get our second and last London game of the season this week, but I’m not sure it’s going to be a great contest. The Jaguars are 0-5 for a reason and Urban Myer really hasn’t convinced in the pros so I find it hard to believe that he will outcoach Brian Flores, even if the Dolphins have really struggled so far this season. I’m hoping for Dan that the Dolphins play better and Tua Tagovailoa gets the start and elevates the team even though the betting lines haven’t moved with Jacoby Brissett as the starter. The sad truth is that right now the Dolphins are ranked only one place higher by the DVOA than the Jaguars and are actually ranked three places lower than the league’s other winless team the Detroit Lions. At this point there might have to be questions about how the draft picks of the recent Dolphins regime is working out even if the process of accumulating them was well done. While the Dolphins shouldn’t be in full panic mode yet, this is probably the first time Flores will be dealing with genuine criticism of his tenure so it will be interesting to see how he and his team react in strange surroundings.
As for the six o’clock games, the oldest rivalry in the NFL is being played again as the Packers visit the Bears, but the matchup of this window must be the LA Chargers visiting the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are coming out of a game where they had to work hard to get the overtime win but where Lamar Jackson completed thirty-seven of forty-three passes for four hundred and forty-two yard and four touchdowns. This doesn’t answer all the questions about Jackson in the passing game as the Colts played him in a particular way, but that was likely his best game as a drop back passer. The Chargers have a different defensive philosophy, but a lot of the excitement is based around the continued development of quarterback Justin Herbert in his second season and this meeting of two 4-1 teams looks to be a great contest that has the potential for real fireworks.
Points from the rest:
The Packers have well and truly moved past their bad opening week but had to work hard to beat the Bengals last week and it will be interesting to see how they do against the Bears, where Matt Nagy has a 31-22 overall record but generally gets coverage that sounds like he’s doing a lot worse. That is because the Bears are not really that convincing at 3-2 but let’s see what Justin Fields and the offence can do this week.
The Bengals had an okay showing last week, but if they want to build on the winning first quarter of the season, they will need to beat a Lions team who have not looked far away from their first win and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lions did get that this week.
The Colts looked better last week, with Carson Wentz looking as good as he has for a long time, but they need to rediscover their winning habit and whilst hosting the Texans looks like a good opportunity to do that, the number of points they are laying seems excessive and I can’t back them to cover that kind of line when they are 1-4.
I’m not sure what to expect from the Giants, as even when things show some promise, injury gets in the way and it’s hard to see them getting one over the Rams, even if it is a long way from LA to the east coast. However, this is a big line and with Daniel Jones cleared to play I’m just wondering if the Rams will cover this one or if they will be happy to just get the win.
Washington are simply not anywhere near the team from last season and whilst the Chiefs are struggling on defence, they has so much more offence than the Football Team that even with this high line I am going to back the Chiefs to get back on track.
The Panthers have been struggling in recent weeks and placed running back Christian McCaffery on IR yesterday after he suffered a setback earlier in the week, which explains the four point swing from laying one and a half points to getting them if you look at the consensus number so I have to go for the Vikings.
Dolphins @ Jaguars (+3.5)
Gee’s Pick: Dolphins Dan’s Pick: Dolphins
Packers @ Bears (+4.5)
Gee’s Pick: Bears Dan’s Pick: Packers
Bengals @ Lions (+3.5)
Gee’s Pick: Lions Dan’s Pick: Bengals
Texans @ Colts (-10.5)
Gee’s Pick: Texans Dan’s Pick: Texans
Rams @ Giants (+10.5)
Gee’s Pick: Giants Dan’s Pick: Rams
Chiefs @ Washington (+6.5)
Gee’s Pick: Chiefs Dan’s Pick: Chiefs
Vikings @ Panthers (-1.5)
Gee’s Pick: Vikings Dan’s Pick: Vikings
Chargers @ Ravens (-3.5)
Gee’s Pick: Ravens Dan’s Pick: Chargers
Late Games:
The best game of the late sets sees the 3-2 Cleveland Browns hosting the 5-0 Cardinals having lost to the Chargers last week. The Browns have beaten the teams they should have but come up short against Chiefs and Chargers. More worryingly the Brown’s injury list is begging to grow. The Cardinals are top ten in all three phases of the game but are on the road without their head coach after Kliff Kingsbury caught Covid-19. I have numbers that contradict each other, but with the Browns at home with their head coach available I’m going to reluctantly back them even though I really don’t have a feel for what is likely to happen in this one other than what looks to be a really good game.
Points on the Rest:
I don’t know how the Raiders will react to the Jon Gruden situation, whether they rally round to win one for themselves or struggle with motivation, although I have heard that Derek Carr has really stepped up this week in his leadership role. The Broncos have struggled the last two weeks and the extra half point makes me nervous so whilst my numbers are saying one thing, I’m going to grab the points and hope.
The Patriots struggled last week against the Texans, so even though they are getting four and a half points at home, which is pretty incredible given Belichick’s coaching record, I find it hard to believe the Pats will keep up with the Cowboys given how both teams are playing at the moment. I would stay well away from this one if I had the choice as I don’t fancy picking against Belichick by this many points but as I don’t have that option I’m going to nervously back the Cowboys given the Pats are the twentieth ranked team by DVOA and the Cowboys are the second.
Cardinals @ Browns (-2.5)
Gee’s Pick: Browns Dan’s Pick: Cardinals
Raiders @ Broncos (-3.5)
Gee’s Pick: Raiders Dan’s Pick: Broncos
Cowboys @ Patriots (+4.5)
Gee’s Pick: Cowboys Dan’s Pick: Cowboys
Sunday Night Football:
Seahawks @ Steelers (-4.5)
The Sunday night game has a completely different feel now that the Seahawks have Russell Wilson out injured and are starting Geno Smith at quarterback. To be fair Smith didn’t exactly look bad when he came into last week’s game, but the Seahawks’ defence is ranked a lowly twenty-fifth right now so it is a lot to ask Smith to come in and maintain the Seahawks current ranking of fifth on offence by DVOA with so little support from the defence. I am not entirely sure I trust the Steelers turnaround on offence after one week, but under the circumstances facing a backup quarterback I’m leaning their way even if I’m not totally convinced.
Gee’s Pick: Steelers Dan’s Pick: Steelers
Monday Night Football
Bills @ Titans (+5.5)
I guess the big question in this game is will the Bills have any kind of let down after the huge win against the Chiefs last week. They are on the road for a second week, this time facing a Tennessee Titans who may have the lead in the AFC South, but who have a 3-2 record and who are ranked twenty-sixth by overall DVOA. The Titans offence has not really clicked this season and the defence continues to struggle, whilst the Bills are the top team by DVOA thanks to the number one ranked defence by DVOA and an offence that is still potent even if Josh Allen’s performance has slipped a little from last year’s amazing efficiency. I feel like with the Bills on the road I could get bitten by this line under the circumstances, but looking at the Titans schedule so far this season I think I still have to back the Bills given the large difference in the DVOA rankings.
Gee’s Pick: Bills Dan’s Pick: Bills
DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.
Dan closed the gap to two points in week five of our picks competition but as we turn our attention to game six, which is the first of the season to feature teams on a bye, we also have what looks to be a distinctly one-sided Thursday night game.
Gee:
Week 5: 7 – 9
Overall: 43 – 37
Dan:
Week 5: 10 – 6
Overall: 41 – 39
Buccaneers @ Eagles (+6.5)
The Philadelphia Eagles are currently ranked sixteenth overall by DVOA, but are undeniably limited on offence despite occasionally flashing glimpses of what they could be. The Eagles did beat the Panthers last week, but you would feel that even with the Buccaneers’ cluster of injuries at corner, that the Eagles’ passing game is not efficient enough for them to get the win. Even Tom Brady dealing with a thumb injury on his throwing hand is not enough for me to back the Eagles to cover given that the consensus line is +7 and I’ve seen others higher than that. The Eagles could very well make me look like a fool but for now I can’t look past the Bucs in this one, even if they are on the road.
Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers
Survivor Competition
I don’t know how closely Dan was following the game on Sunday as it was happening, but the Patriots were made to work to get their win against the Texans but his plan to pick against the Texans just about held. However, he has transferred his plan to pick against the Jaguars, which I understand except he’s placing more faith in his Dolphins team than I have! That said, the Ravens could have easily lost against the Colts so I can’t be too confident in my own selections. Looking at the teams this week I’ve gone for the Rams against the Giants, even if they are on the road, the Giants have enough injuries and struggles this season to make me think they’ll struggle to keep up with the Rams.
Current Score
Gee: 4 Dan: 3
Week 3 Selection:
Gee: Rams Dan: Dolphins
Bold Prediction of the Week
I was really struggling for a bold prediction this week, but I was eventually allowed to back the Bears to cover getting four and a half points as they host the Packers on Sunday.
DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measuring a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.
It was an interesting start to the week five games on Thursday night with the LA Rams managing a nine-point win against the Seahawks in Seattle despite a mixed performance from Matthew Stafford and Geno Smith leading the Seahawks on a ninety-three yard touchdown drive after he had to come into the game for the injured Russell Wilson. It really was a strange game that if anything saw the defences of both teams win out in the first half, and Stafford not quite connecting on his passes. However, the Rams kept pushing at it and eventually started to hit the long ball, like when Stafford connected with DeSean Jackson for a sixty-eight yard year completion but it was Robert Woods who after a quiet start to the season was fed the ball the most in the passing game finishing with twelve catches for one-hundred and fifty yards. Having gone into the half with a lead, the Seahawks struggled in the third quarter and with Wilson’s injury never were quite able to challenge the Rams again despite Smith’s competent display as the backup quarterback. The Seahawks look like they will be the first team to fall properly out of the playoff hunt in the AFC West given the losing record and that Wilson will be out for weeks as he recovers from the surgery on his finger, while there are questions about the Rams defence but they will definitely be pleased with the early returns on the Stafford trade.
It feels like I got a bit lucky on the first pick of the week, and I’ve already written up the London game so now it’s time to get into the rest of the week five games.
Early Games:
At the risk of being self-interested, the most interesting of the early games to me is the Green Bay Packers taking on the Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are an unexpected 3-1 on the back of a top five defence by DVOA and an offence that is doing enough. Rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase has looked every bit the first-round pick despite the rough pre-season and Joe Burrow hasn’t just returned from his knee injury but is scrambling and looking to build on the promise of his rookie season. I’m still not totally convinced by the offensive line, but Jonnah Wilson has been healthy and getting some plaudits at left tackle. However, the Bengals did make a little bit of a meal of beating the Jaguars last week and face their sternest test of the season as they welcome the Packers who may well rank seven places belove them by overall DVOA, but Aaron Rodgers is as dangerous as ever and the offence is top ten by DVOA. Apart from the strange loss in week one, the Packers have looked good for the rest of the season and with Rodgers at the helm I find it hard to predict a Bengals win, but it has the potential to be a cracking game and I do like getting the points at home.
Points from the rest:
The Vikings have had one of the weirder starts to the season losing to the Bengals and a Cardinals team who look like serious contenders so far this season. Their solitary win of the season came against the Seahawks before they lost to the Browns last week, but the division rival Lions should give them an opportunity to get back on track.
The Steelers are stuck in the twenties in all three phases of the game by DVOA ranking, and this week face a 3-1 Broncos team who have enough injuries (including a concussion for Teddy Bridgewater that means his questionable to start) that I think I’m taking the Steelers at home. Though for a franchise that I always respect there are a lot of problems in Pittsburgh right now.
The Dolphins season has gone horribly, with everyone questioning the decision to take Tua Tagovailoa over Justin Herbert last season, and a trip to face the Buccaneers is not really what they need to get back to winning ways. The Bucs have enough injuries at corner that I’m going to take the ten and a half points, but the Dolphins must hope that Tagovailoa can show something once he gets off the IR list but it’s going to be a while before that happens.
The Saints have been so up and down this season, proving that even Sean Payton can’t win with every quarterback. The Washington defence has not lived up to expectations, but Taylor Heinicke has given enough of a spark at quarterback that the Football Team are 2-2 and I’m not sure they should be getting points to this version of the Saints at home.
The Carolina Panthers could not keep up with the Cowboys last week, but the trade for Stephon Gilmore shows they are committed to this season and the defence so if the offence can keep doing enough they hope to keep the pressure on the Bucs in the NFC South. The Eagles have shown flashes of potential but have not been consistent and whilst the points scare me and the numbers point in the other direction, I can’t back them on the road based on a week one win against the Falcons
The Patriots take on a Texans team who are trying to ape the Patriots success, but are at the very beginning of the process and are down two starting quarterbacks for very different reasons. Poor Davis Mills was never meant to start this season, and it is hard to see anything but a Pats win in this one, even if this is a lot of points.
Packers @ Bengals (+3.5)
Gee’s Pick: Bengals Dan’s Pick: Packers
Lions @ Vikings (-7.5)
Gee’s Pick: Vikings Dan’s Pick: Lions
Broncos @ Steelers (-1.5)
Gee’s Pick: Steelers Dan’s Pick: Browns
Dolphins @ Buccaneers (-10.5)
Gee’s Pick: Dolphins Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers
Saints @ Washington (+1.5)
Gee’s Pick: Washington Dan’s Pick: Saints
Eagles @ Panthers (-4.5)
Gee’s Pick: Panthers Dan’s Pick: Panthers
Titans @ Jaguars (+4.5)
Gee’s Pick: Titans Dan’s Pick: Titans
Patriots @ Texans (+9.5)
Gee’s Pick: Patriots Dan’s Pick: Patriots
Late Games:
There are two interesting late games this week, so it is kind of hard to pick a best matchup.
The Cleveland Browns have kept rolling even if Baker Mayfield is dealing with an injury in his non-throwing shoulder that is limiting his play, but a stellar defence is keeping them in games, but will they have enough to limit a Chargers offence who looked very good as they ran out easy winners over Las Vegas last week. I feel like I must go with the Chargers at home right now, but the Browns could very easily win this one.
The Arizona Cardinals are the sole unbeaten team left in the league and welcome a 49ers team who are starting rookie quarterback Trey Lance for the first time thanks to another injury to Jimmy Garoppolo. Going against the sixth ranked defence by DVOA is a tough first start for Lance, and on the road it will be interesting to see what game plan Kyle Shanahan has in place for his rookie quarterback. For some reason I like getting the points in this game, and I am definitely watching this game as I look to fix the huge oversight of not having watched the Cardinal yet.
Points on the Rest:
The Bears have finally named Justin Fields as the start after a much better showing last week, which was helped by a game plan that actually looked designed to take advantage of his skill set. However, the Raiders will prove a tough opponent even if they couldn’t find their way on offence until too late to really challenge the Chargers last week. I expect the Raiders to win, but I wonder about the points total.
The Giants against the Cowboys could be a good contest if things break right, with quarterback Daniel Jones ranking tenth by DVOA. However, the Cowboys look to have found enough on defence to throw themselves into the elite of the league with a competent defence to compliment the flying offence with Dak Prescott showing no signs of issues coming back from his ankle injury of last season.
Bears @ Raiders (-5.5)
Gee’s Pick: Bears Dan’s Pick: Raiders
Browns @ Chargers (-1.5)
Gee’s Pick: Chargers Dan’s Pick: Chargers
Giants @ Cowboys (-7.5)
Gee’s Pick: Cowboys Dan’s Pick: Cowboys
49ers @ Cardinals (-5.5)
Gee’s Pick: 49ers Dan’s Pick: Cardinals
Sunday Night Football:
Bills @ Chiefs (-2.5)
The matchup of the week has top billing Sunday night as the Buffalo Bills trying to beat the Kansas City Chiefs. The talk out of Buffalo is that this is just another game, but it’s hard to see how that can be the case when the Bills are trying to push for the Super Bowl and are taking on the team that beat them in the conference championship game last season. Josh Allen may not have been able to sustain the numbers he put up last season, but having scored forty points for the last two games he must be looking at the Chiefs’ last ranked defence by DVOA with a real sense of opportunity.
The Chiefs are not suddenly a bad team, but the offence has not always been able to overcome the problems on defence this year, yet they will still be the toughest team the Bills have faced all season. I’m not sure what to make of either team just yet, but I am very much looking forward to watching this one.
Gee’s Pick: Chiefs Dan’s Pick: Bills
Monday Night Football
Colts @ Ravens (-6.5)
The Colts got their first win of the season last week, but it’s hard to trust them coming into this contest with a 3-1 Ravens team who as usual are there or there abouts. Thanks to the vagaries of the AFC South the Colts are only one win behind the division leaders despite the poor start that may not have sunk them yet, but the Ravens are top ten by DVOA yet again thanks to the usual combination of tough defence and diverse running attack. I wonder if on Monday night the Colts can make this a contest but it’s hard to see anything other than a Ravens win at this point.
Gee’s Pick: Ravens Dan’s Pick: Ravens
DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.
I don’t know if it just because of everything else I’ve been doing but it feels like it’s been a slightly understated build up to the return of the NFL to London. The really odd thing for me is I’ve been talking to Dan about really looking forward to watching these games at the Spurs stadium, as if the ones in 2019 didn’t happen, which I guess is a function of there being no London games in 2020. I am looking forward to finding out what Dan makes of the stadium when he goes next week, but let’s focus in on the early early game that is kicking off our week five Sunday where the Atlanta Falcons adopt London as their temporary home.
Jets @ Falcons (-3.5)
‘Could not be more Falcons if I tried’
So I know which way Dan is going, and I look at the number and the situation and I simply do not agree. That doesn’t mean that I am right, but the Falcons will be without their number one and two receivers in Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage. Right now the Falcons rank thirty-second by DVOA, a massive 20.4% behind the Jets even if they are only ranked two places above them. It might be because I saw the Jets win their first game last week, but there were definite glimmers of progress in this young roster, and Zach Wilson made some lovely throws although I think he could get himself into trouble at times as he’s not afraid to trust his arm. Still, I’ve seen nothing from the Falcons that makes me think that they should be giving up more than a field goal in points so I’m going to grab the points and hope not to be disappointed.
Dan and I had matching 8-8 records in week four, so I maintained my five-point lead, but I’m still frustrated at some of my picks knowing that the continuations of so many unbeaten or winless streaks was likely to end and yet still not fully taking that into account. We’re also beginning to get an idea of which teams are more trustworthy than others so let’s take a look at the start of week five.
Gee:
Week 4: 8 – 8
Overall: 36 – 28
Dan:
Week 4: 8 – 8
Overall: 31 – 33
Rams @ Seahawks (+1.5)
There can be no complaints about the quality of the Thursday night game this week as we get the mouth-watering NFC West contest between the LA Rams and the Seattle Seahawks. I’m very much looking forward to watching the game but feel much more ambivalent about having to make a pick with this line. The Rams are coming off their first loss of the season and I’ve even heard some suggest that they are a front running team this season. They certainly have taken a step back on defence under Raheem Morris but they also have the second rank offence by DVOA with whole new sections of the playbook unlocked by Matthew Stafford’s arm.
The Seahawks on the other hand have kept themselves in the race for the division with a 2-2 record, but a top five offence has been paired with a defence that ranks twenty-fifth by DVOA and having not watched a full game of theirs yet this season I am just not sure how they will fare in this game. The Seahawks have to play three of their opening five games on the road and with the crowds back in Seattle for this contest, I can see the upset, and it is always hard to go against Russell Wilson. but the way season has gone so far has me going with the Rams. I just don’t feel confident about it
Gee’s Pick: Rams Dan’s Pick: Rams
Survivor Competition
I made the mistake of backing the up and down Saints last week and it yielded my first loss of the season whilst Dan picked up another point by going against the Texans with the Bills, a tactic he’s repeating this week but this time with the Patriots on the road against the Texans. I can see where he’s going with that one, but as usual I will try not to simply ape Dan’s pick and so I’m going for the Ravens against a Colts team that I don’t trust, even if they are coming off their first win of the season.
I was ill enough during the week to drive a coach and horses through my blog schedule for the week so I have a large number of things to cover in a single post so I guess I will be going broad but shallow this week.
I extended my lead over Dan with a decent week of picks after a poor week two so let’s see if I can settle into a system or if it’s going to be a week to week season.
Gee:
Week 3: 12 – 4
Overall: 28 – 20
Dan:
Week 3: 8 – 8
Overall: 23 – 25
The Thursday night game saw the Bengals win a game 24-21 having gone in at half time down two touchdowns having scored nothing. Until recently that would have meant a loss but there does seem to be something different about this year’s Bengals. I’m not suddenly pencilling them into the Super Bowl, but Joe Burrow is reminding everyone why people were excited about him and to get this win with the injuries in the secondary on a short week is a good step forward. As for the Jaguars, they obviously had a good first half, but they look a ways away from winning regularly and it could take some time. It’s too early to truly judge Urban Myer as a coach, but it has been rough early and this was always a long term project so it might not get better for a while. You can also see given Myer’s offseason moves and some of his comments why there is already speculation.
Survivor Competition
Dan got his first point on the board this week with the selection of the Cardinals going against the Jags whilst I would still be standing in a standard survivor pool so let’s see both how long I can keep that going and if Dan can catch me. I’m plumping for the Saints at home for the first time this season against a Giants team who have injuries and a troubled start to the season. Dan is going for Bills to beat the Texans which seems a solid selection to me!
Current Score
Gee: 3 Dan: 1
Week 3 Selection:
Gee: Saints Dan: Bills
Bold Prediction of the Week
My bold prediction for this week was to take the Detroit Lions getting their first win on the road against the Chicago Bears. It’s certainly bold, and I’m not entirely sure it won’t happen either, but let’s see.
Early Games:
I’m still at the stage where I’m seeing most of the games as having something interesting but in the interests of keeping it short, I’ll cover what I can in a brief manner.
The matchup of the early games for my mind is the Carolina Panthers visiting the Dallas Cowboys to put their unbeaten record on the line against the 2-1 NFC East leaders. This should be a great game given how well the two teams are playing, particularly as the line is very much leaning to the Cowboys, while the Panthers are the number one team by DVOA and are both eight places and 18.5% higher than their opponents. The Cowboys have competent defence this season to go along with an explosive passing attack, which should be a really interesting matchup against the league’s top defence by DVOA. I think you likely lean Cowboys to win the game as I’m not that convinced by Sam Darnold and the Panthers are also missing Christian McCaffery with a hamstring problem, but it still should be a cracking game and the Panthers could well spring a surprise.
Points from the rest:
The Falcons got their first win last week but are not convincing yet so is this a game where Washington can get right after a difficult start to the season or will their problems continue on the road.
The Bills are understandable favourites against the Texans, but 16.5 is a huge number of points to lay so whilst I doubt rookie quarterback Davis Mills can get his first win on the road, he didn’t look that bad last week and I wonder if there is a sneaky cover to be had here.
The Bears offence was woeful last week, and the questions are understandably on the coaches at this point. The Lions might be viewed as a get right team but equally, this could be a game that’s a big trap for the Bears, particularly as these two teams are right next to each other in overall DVOA.
The Miami Dolphins have had a rough start to the season, but the Colts have been even rougher and starting a quarterback with two sprained ankles and limited time with his new team in the pre-season doesn’t inspire confidence. At this point, a first win is a must for the Colts, but a top ten defence by DVOA might be enough for the Dolphins to deny them.
This is the other cracking matchup in the early games that in another week would have been featured. The Browns are the number two team by DVOA and are heading to take on a Vikings team whose record is probably worse than their performance. This should be a cracking game, well worth a watch and whilst I understand the Browns being favoured, the Vikings getting points at home looks a good selection to me
I don’t think the Giants are getting the answers they were hoping for about Daniel Jones thanks to a combination of coaching and injuries, but there are wider problems for this franchise. It’s hard to see them beating the Saints, even if Jameis Winston has shown us the usual high and lows of his play dispite now having Sean Payton as his coach.
The New York Jets have shown glimmers of what could be, but it was already a mutli-year rebuild project before the injuries started and after a shut out they will be desperate to do better at home against the Titans. The Titans are not a good team, but should have enough to win this one, but I’m not sure that includes winning by eight.
The Chiefs are another team who’ve had a rough start to the season, which is unusual for Andy Reid who has an impressive record in September but the Chiefs’ defence is rooted to the bottom of the DVOA rankings and even with Patrick Mahomes you can’t outscore that. However, the Eagles started picking up injuries and quarterback Jalen Hutrs needs to be more consistent passing the ball before the Eagles can truly start to compete and so I find it hard to believe they will win this game.
Washington @ Falcons (+1.5)
Gee’s Pick: Washington Dan’s Pick: Washington
Texans @ Bills (-16.5)
Gee’s Pick: Texans Dan’s Pick: Bills
Lions @ Bears (-2.5)
Gee’s Pick: Lions Dan’s Pick: Lions
Panthers @ Cowboys (-4.5)
Gee’s Pick: Panthers Dan’s Pick: Cowboys
Colts @ Dolphins (-1.5)
Gee’s Pick: Dolphins Dan’s Pick: Dolphins
Browns @ Vikings (+2.5)
Gee’s Pick: Vikings Dan’s Pick: Vikings
Giants @ Saints (-7.5)
Gee’s Pick: Saints Dan’s Pick: Saints
Titans @ Jets (+7.5)
Gee’s Pick: Jets Dan’s Pick: Titans
Chiefs @ Eagles (+7.5)
Gee’s Pick: Chiefs Dan’s Pick: Chiefs
Late Games:
There’s a couple of intriguing games in the late slot but the pick for me once again has to feature the LA Rams, this time hosting the also unbeaten Arizona Cardinals. The Rams have been explosive on offence and good enough on defence, which is interesting as when you start comparing these two teams’ DVOA rankings the Rams are ranked first in offence, but the Cardinals are top ten in all three phases of the game and are only 0.3% worse overall. I’m not sure if the Cardinals can win the game on the road, but this looks to be a cracking game and I think there’s a decent chance the Cardinals can keep this to within six.
Points on the Rest:
The Seahawks have not quite come together yet and will be hoping to peg back the 49ers in their bid to stay in the race for the play-offs. The 49ers have not entirely convinced either so this should be an interesting demonstration of where these two teams stand.
The unbeaten Denver Broncos host the Ravens this week in their first true test of the 2021 season. The early DVOA ranking are somewhat volatile as they don’t have all the opponent adjustments factored in, so I totally understand why the line sees the Ravens as the better team but I’m curious to see how this plays out on the football field. It’s certainly not beyond Vic Fangio to scheme up a defence capable of stymieing the Ravens’ multi-faceted rush attack as well as their passing game, but can Teddy Bridgwater maintain the Broncos offensive success against the Ravens defence?
The Steelers look to be in trouble with the offence looking how it did at the end of last season and the defence struggling against the Bengals last week minues TJ Watt. There are still doubts about the Packers after their opening loss of the season and how the defence has looked, but a good win here would further settle some of those anxieties and I suspect that is what will happen, even if you should never count out Mike Tomlin’s Steelers.
Cardinals @ Rams (-5.5)
Gee’s Pick: Cardinals Dan’s Pick: Rams
Seahawks @ 49ers (-2.5)
Gee’s Pick: Seahawks Dan’s Pick: Seahawks
Ravens @ Broncos (-1.5)
Gee’s Pick: Ravens Dan’s Pick: Ravens
Steelers @ Packers (-6.5)
Gee’s Pick: Packers Dan’s Pick: Packers
Sunday Night Football:
Buccaneers @ Patriots (+6.5)
From a narrative point of view the undisputed game of the week is the return of Tom Brady to New England with his Super Bowl winning Buccaneers. Things have not gone perfectly for the Bucs this season, particularly as they have been struggling to defend the pass and were fairly straightforwardly beaten by the Rams last week. However, their offence has looked good and there is a solid 31.8% between the teams in overall DVOA, which accounts for them laying six and a half pints. Ordinarily getting this many points at home would be a no brainer selection of the Patriots, but even with the selection of Mac Jones looking to have provided the long-term successor to Brady at quarterback for the Patriots, there is still a lot of development for the Pats to go and whilst I wouldn’t bet against them being in the playoff hunt by December, I’m not there with them right this second. Mind you, I would not exactly be surprised if Belichick makes me regret this pick come Monday morning either…
Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers
Monday Night Football
Raiders @ Chargers (-.3.5)
This should be a cracking divisional game to finish off the week as the unbeaten Las Vegas Raiders head over to LA to face a Chargers teams coming off an impressive win against the Chiefs last week. However, right now the Raiders’ defence ranks eleventh by DVOA so might be able to do a better job against Justin Herbet than the Chiefs managed. Derek Carr has been playing better than the Vegas offensive ranking of seventeenth might indicate and the Chargers have not demonstrated that they are a defensive monster just yet. I don’t have a strong lean in either direction on this one so I’m grabbing the extra half point for a pick, but I am really looking forward to watching this game.
Gee’s Pick: Raiders Dan’s Pick: Chargers
DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.
Week three had a subdued start with the Panthers beating the Texans in Houston 24-9. It was always going to be a tough job for rookie quarterback Davis Mills starting for the Texans for the first time given that he only had eleven starts in college. It wasn’t that Mills was bad, but the Panthers defense came into this game with ten sacks in two games and once again got a lot of pressure with four sacks and nine quarterback hits. Even though Mills didn’t turn the ball over and completed a tick under 68% of his passes, there was not a lot of time to get the ball down field and combine that with an anemic running attack and the nine points the Texans scored is pretty understandable. The Panthers were not exactly that spectacular either though, and I left this game feeling distinctly whelmed by Sam Darnold who does look better than he did for the Jets, but for my money still doesn’t impress and he had two fumbles from not sensing pressure and protecting the ball enough. You can’t take too much away from this game as it was a professional win, but because of that it is hard to get too much of a view on the Panthers either. They certainly are heading in the right direction, but I’m not sure about them when it comes to face the elite of the league so I think they are definitely a team you can continue to be skeptical about for now.
Early Games:
I’m still at the point of the season where I can easily come up with a reason to watch every game, but for both time and space reasons I will try to rein in my enthusiasm a little.
The divisional matchup between the Chargers and the Chiefs is particularly tasty given both teams are already a game behind the Raiders and Broncos in AFC West. The Chiefs look as scary as ever on offence when passing the ball, but are struggling when rushing the ball and on defense are rock bottom in defending against it. Now, I think that run defense ranking will be skewed by us being two games into the season and one of them being against the Ravens and their diverse running attack, but Chiefs need to improve on defense over the course of the season to get back to the Super Bowl. It’s not such a disaster for the Chargers if they fail to challenge for the playoffs given they have a young franchise quarterback in his second season and a rookie head coach, but they do need to look as if they’re building something and this should be a good early test of that, but let’s give Brandon Staley time with the Chargers before we start to worry about them.
I am looking forward to watching the Patriots host the Saints as I really want to see the matchup between Bill Belichick and his defensive staff going against the Sean Payton’s and the Saints offence. We saw Jameis Winston demonstrate last week that he hasn’t exactly left behind the low points that have been an ongoing part of an up and down career on the field in the NFL. The Saints had a difficult week two with the number of coaches not available for the game due to a Covid-19 outbreak and are still missing personnel and given the situation in New Orleans following hurricane Ida things must be tough for everyone involved. The NFL waits for no one though and I am curious as to what is going to happen in this contest.
Points from the rest:
Washington have not looked like the team we were expecting on defense, and with Taylor Heinicke holding the starting position at quarterback for now it will be interesting to see if they can make this game competitive against a Bills team who seem to be if not struggling, then underperforming on offence. I like the Bills to win but this line does give me pause.
The Bears are starting Justin Fields as Andy Dalton is out with a knee injury, but the defense of the Browns is only ranked twenty-fifth by DVOA so the Bears might have an easier time than you might initially think look at the line. It would be a surprise if they can spring the upset, but I’m not so sure about covering the line.
The line is big for a reason, but the Ravens look to be on a roll and so the only concern is whether there is a let down after the emotional win against the Chiefs last week. I need to watch the Lions soon to get a feel for them given they have been better than some expected, but while a cover could be possible, a win really would be a surprise.
The Colts look to be starting Carson Wentz despite his sprained ankles, and they really need to get a win to get their season turned around, but it looks to be a tough ask in the current circumstances. That said, while the Titans played better last week to get their first win, I don’t exactly trust them.
The Falcons need to find something to build around under new head coach Arthur Smith, but the first step would be to be competitive and while the Giants are ranked only ten places better than the Falcons (who are the thirty-second ranked team by DVOA), there is also a chasm between them in terms of 74.5% between them so I wouldn’t like to predict it. Still this is probably too many points for the Giants to be laying to anyone.
The Steelers are going to be missing TJ Watt and there is an injury report regarding Ben Roethlisberger’s pec which gives me a little hope for the Bengals. My bold prediction this week was that the Bengals are going to win, which is probably a bit much but I don’t think a cover is out of the questions.
The Jaguars are struggling, and the visit of the Arizona Cardinals is probably not what they need to turn things round. It’s too early to write of Urban Myer in the NFL, but he is learning the league as he tries to turn around a franchise that hasn’t won consistently for a long time. The Cardinals are looking solid in all three phases of the game so far this season, and there’s an even bigger gap between them and the Jaguars by DVOA percentage points than there is between the Falcons and Giants. The Jaguars have lost seventeen straight games going back to last season and it’s hard to see them covering this one yet alone winning, though the Cardinals don’t have the finest track record themselves so it’s possibly they take their eye off the ball, but I can’t bring myself to back the Jaguars yet.
Washington @ Bills (-8.5)
Gee’s Pick: Washington Dan’s Pick: Bills
Bears @ Browns (-7.5)
Gee’s Pick: Bears Dan’s Pick: Browns
Ravens @ Lions (+9.5)
Gee’s Pick: Lions Dan’s Pick: Ravens
Colts @ Titans (-5.5)
Gee’s Pick: Colts Dan’s Pick: Titans
Chargers @ Chiefs (-6.5)
Gee’s Pick: Chargers Dan’s Pick: Chiefs
Saints @ Patriots (-2.5)
Gee’s Pick: Saints Dan’s Pick: Saints
Falcons @ Giants (-3.5)
Gee’s Pick: Falcons Dan’s Pick: Giants
Bengals @ Steelers (-4.5)
Gee’s Pick: Bengals Dan’s Pick: Steelers
Cardinals @ Jaguars (+7.5)
Gee’s Pick: Cardinals Dan’s Pick: Cardinals
Late Games:
The game of the week is right here with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers travelling to LA to take on the Rams in a meeting of two unbeaten teams. This should be a chance for the Rams defense to show how good they truly are having lost players and their coordinator from last season, but you have to think that Sean McVay is feeling confident given the early returns of the addition of Matthew Stafford to his offence. I don’t want to pick this game at all, but I am really looking forward to watching it!
Points on the Rest:
The Broncos have made a good start to the season, even if it has been relatively easy, and the Jets are not exactly going to change that but you can only beat the teams put in front of you. If Teddy Bridgewater can keep his new found long ball success and the defense keeps holding up then the Broncos will be difficult to face all season, while the Jets are starting a rebuild and look likely to struggle all season.
The Dolphins have just placed Tua Tagovailoa on IR with his broken ribs and travel to face an unbeaten Raiders team. It has been a difficult start to the season for Miami and I’m curious to see if the Raiders can remain unbeaten in their push to finally get to the playoffs under Jon Gruden. Certainly, the play of Derek Carr has stopped the questions about quarterback for now, where as there seems to be no end of the speculation in Miami about their quarterback and there’s nothing Tagovailoa can do about that on IR.
The Seahawks lost in overtime last week and now take on a desperate 0-2 Vikings team in Minnesota. This should be a fascinating contest given Vikings slow start and the Seahawks new offence but I’m not sure which team I trust in this game. It’s too early to be a must win game, but neither team can really afford the loss given the state of their respective divisions.
Jets @ Broncos (-10.5)
Gee’s Pick: Broncos Dan’s Pick: Jets
Dolphins @ Raiders (-4.5)
Gee’s Pick: Dolphins Dan’s Pick: Raiders
Buccaneers @ Rams (-1.5)
Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers
Seahawks @ Vikings (+1.5)
Gee’s Pick: Vikings Dan’s Pick: Seahawks
Sunday Night Football:
Packers @ 49ers (-3.5)
The Sunday night game between the Packers and the 49ers should another great contest. The Packers at least won their game against the Lions, but there are still questions about their defence and the offence has a way to go before it lives up to the levels of recent years. However, the 49ers offence is struggling, partly through the numerous running back injuries and Jimmy Garoppolo has not exactly convinced at quarterback either. The 49ers will likely be competitive as they generally are under Kyle Shanahan, but I’m not sure about them being favourites as this line suggests given their injury situation and giving Aaron Rodgers more than a field goal.
Gee’s Pick: Packers Dan’s Pick: Packers
Monday Night Football
Eagles @ Cowboys (-3.5)
The Monday night clash sees the Philadelphia Eagles head to their division rivals the Dallas Cowboys coming off a loss to the 49ers where they picked up some tough injuries on the defensive line. I see potential in Jalen Hurts as a young quarterback but this week he must try to keep up with Dax Prescott and the Cowboys receivers and that seems unlikely. The Cowboys are still a work in progress on the defence and I am not ready to proclaim them the likely winners of the NFC East yet, but having been in close games to good teams I think they have too much for the Eagles unless there is a remarkable performance from someone That’s not impossible and I’m sure rookie head coach Nick Dirianni would love to make me eat my words but it’s going to take more than, ‘Beat Dallas’ t-shirts to make it happen.
Gee’s Pick: Cowboys Dan’s Pick: Cowboys
DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.
The Wrong Football 