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AAF: Bengals Offence and Line

16 Sunday Oct 2016

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Dallas Cowboys 28
Cincinnati Bengals 14

This game was pretty upsetting to watch last week, but going through the coaching tape and trying to understand what happened on offence I am more frustrated than sad. My intention was to look at the offensive line play as that was one of the big talking points, but I have taken in aspect of the rest of the offence as I went through my latest amateur adventure in film.

The Bengals actually gained three hundred and forty-give yards of total offence in this game, with nearly one hundred yards on the ground from only nineteen carries, but they gave up four sacks and nine QB hits whilst only getting into the end zone in the fourth quarter when the game had already escaped them.

There are a lot of new or changed parts to the Bengals offence this year with a new offensive coordinator, new number two and three receivers, tight end Tyler Eifert still not being fit, and a new right tackle in Cedric Ogbuehi. This has led to a lot of nearly but not quite plays rather than flat out bad play, but it is really causing the Bengals’ offence problems in maintaining drives and in particular, being efficient in the red zone.

The timing is not quite there yet with the new receivers, and so whilst Brandon LaFell caught two touchdowns whilst looking pretty good, Tyler Boyd only made a couple of and had a particularly bad drop in the third quarter.

Moving to the offensive line, there is only one new player in effective rookie Cedric Ogbuehi, but this does seem to be causing them some problems at times. I am not an offensive line play expert, but it’s not that they look particularly bad in pass protection, but Andy Dalton has been hit too often and you can see why. The chemistry still appears to be developing between right guard Kevin Zeitler and Ogbuehi so whilst they are doing fine when facing a straight rush, any time that defensive linemen stunt, or someone loops round to the right side of the line  it seems to be causing the Bengals issues. Towards the end of the game Ryan Davis was getting round Ogbuehi repeatedly, but generally up field and so Dalton was stepping up and able to make the underneath passes the Cowboys were leaving them.

The run game of the Bengals features pulling guards fairly regularly, particularly Clint Bolling, and this is included in their play action passing which can lead to some interesting protection assignments. On one play Tyler Croft had to come across the back of the formation to seal the defensive end and was not able to hold up in what is a pretty challenging blocking assignment. You would also see this kind of movement in the running game where in mirrored action on plays early and late in the game, the tackle and guard of the same side would pull whilst a receiver motioned towards the line would have to cut the defensive end seal that side of the line. When the left side of the line performed this play, Brandon LaFell was able to make that cut block and the run worked, but later in the game when the right side performed the action, Tyler Boyd could not stop Ryan Davis from getting into the backfield and disrupting the play.

This is the problem with the Bengals offence at the moment; it’s just not quite clicking. A lot of the time they were in 11 personnel, and were only blocking with six players. Sometimes you would see Giovani Bernard lined up just behind the line between centre and guard, and he would be effective as part of the blocking unit, but they were not using big formations or lots of blockers to help sure up the pass protection. This might seem like a bad plan given what has been going on this season, except for large parts of the game it was fine but the timing was off with the receivers and the pass was incomplete. Then they would give up a pressure or sack.

Overall I still think the Bengals offence could come together, and so could the line, but my worry is that with them going to New England this weekend, making four road games out of their first six and with one of their home games in London in week eight, the Bengals could be too far behind to make it into the playoffs. The loss of coordinator Hue Jackson, on top of Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu at receiver, coupled with Tyler Eifert getting injured in the Pro Bowl and not making it back to the field yet has given the Bengals offence a huge amount to deal with at the start of the season, but whilst not a complete disaster, it has been enough to derail them so far. On to New England then…

The Futility of Making Picks but Doing It Anyway

06 Thursday Oct 2016

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Our picks have not been pretty over the last two weeks, despite me building a five point advantage over Dan, but in a way the failures highlights why I love the NFL and there is a reason we keep picking games.

One of the characteristic things about the NFL is through a combination of deliberate attempts to foster parity like the Draft and salary cap, and the unpredictable nature of a game with such large rosters and high injury rates, it is incredibly hard for a team to remain consistently good from season to season.

The Carolina Panthers, who last year went 15-1 in the regular season on the way to the Super Bowl have got off to a 1-3 start with Cam Newton picking up a concussion in the fourth quarter of their week four loss to the Atlanta Falcons. They Panthers were already well behind when Newton left the game as their defence that was such a strength last year gave up over five hundred yards of passing with Julio Jones accounting for three hundred of them as he caught twelve passes from fifteen targets and scored a touchdown. Some of this is likely down to the loss of not just Josh Norman, but Charles Tillman and the addition of two rookie corners, but team have not been in synch on offence either despite getting Kelvin Benjamin back from injury. The worry would be for me that one player was able to get so many yards individually and that the coaches didn’t adjust, but there appears to be a real problem in Carolina.

The Arizona Cardinals who played so well last season are, struggling as their offence is misfiring, and they have a fallen to a 1-3 record despite having one of my favourite head coaches in the league. Things are not clicking for them on offence in the passing game, although David Johnson looks to be continuing on from his excellent rookie season last year. However, a stumbling offence and a defence that hasn’t gelled yet do not win football games, and so it is now less surprising that the Patriots were able to beat them in week one despite Tom Brady being suspended.

Meanwhile, to counter this point the Denver Broncos are 4-0 despite losing Payton Manning and a number of defensive starters. The defence is still playing to a very high standard, whilst the offence is getting improved results from a very inexperienced starter in Trevor Siemian, and continued to do enough a win when he hurt his should and Paxton Lynch came into the game. They look to be up there again this season, and it certainly seems that John Elway has a clear idea of what he wants and this has been delivering results so far for him.

Of course, there are exceptions to every rule model of consistent success for the last decade has been the New England Patriots. They have started the season 3-1 despite Tom Brady’s suspension, but even the best teams don’t win all of their games and they came a cropper this week as having beat the Texans 27-0 in week three, they lost to the Bills 16-0. I wouldn’t bet against them this week with Brady returning, but we get these kinds of results fairly regularly and so it kind of makes a mockery of picking games each week.

There is a reason that I do it though, and not just because it gives me a something to write about. I don’t really like making predictions in terms of it proving one way or another that someone knows what they are talking about, it’s a standard requirement of covering sports, but at the end of the day if the outcome was so predictable there would be no reason to play the games. I like writing about what I have seen, what happened, and why I think it did.

However, picking games against the spread gives me a framework to look at each team, and helps highlight which teams I need to watch more. Of course you always tend to be interested in certain games each week, but by looking at what might happen, it keeps you focussed across the entire league and encourages sharpness, or in the last couple of weeks, distinctly dull. That said, I doubt many people were expecting for the Bills to beat the Patriots in the way they did, and that was far from the only surprise result.

So despite the poor record, we’ll keep ploughing on and hopefully things will improve, but you can never guarantee anything in the NFL.

Gee:      Week 4   6-9                       Overall   27-36
Dan:       Week 4   4-11                     Overall   22-41

Cardinals @ 49ers (+2.5)

The Cardinals are in real trouble, with Carson Palmer not playing well even before he got a concussion and on a short week he shouldn’t play. Against almost any other team with the start they have had, this would strongly tempt me to pick against the Cardinals despite by admiration for Bruce Arians, but even though they are on the road in San Francisco, I can’t bring myself to pick the 49ers to win, especially after losing Navorro Bowman last week on defence.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

AAF: JJ Watt vs the Patriots and Injury

02 Sunday Oct 2016

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This article has shifted on somewhat during the week as after listening to a podcast and hearing a discussion on the Patriots always scheming against JJ Watt well, I had already started working my way through the coaching tape when the news of JJ Watt’s re-injuring his back broke. He has already had surgery and will be out for the rest of the season, and I just hope he gets back to full fitness as he really is one of my favourite players in the NFL.

Looking at the coaching tape, Watt did indeed have a quiet game, although there were moments where he was still able to generate penetration, but was a step slow to get to the quarterback or stop a run. However a big reason for this was that the Patriots were playing him cleverly. Watt was frequently double teamed, but not in the over top way I have sometimes seen when other teams have played the Texans. More often than that though, the Patriots would run the ball away from Watt’s side of the line, or they would throw the quick pass before anyone would have been able to generate a pass rush. The Patriots would still block him with a single lineman, and sometimes Watt would shed the block to affect the play even if he didn’t get the tackle, but more often it was a case of avoiding Watt rather than over adjusting the blocking scheme.

I’m not going to speculate when or how Watt got injured, but I did notice there were a couple of drives where he was rested for a few snaps and then brought back, usually in passing downs. Whenever it was, the idea of trying to do anything on an NFL field with a back problem serious enough to be operated on a few days later is kind of terrifying. I tend to vacillate between an appreciation for the other worldly physical talents of NFL players, and remembering that they are only humans at another moment. The toughness so frequently displayed by NFL players has me bewildered given how painful I have found even relatively minor injuries.

There is all kinds of speculation about whether Watt came back to soon, or trained too much after the surgery are going round. It is hard to argue against this given that Watt re-injured his back, but given that Watt’s game is built around toughness and effort I would imagine most would struggle to hold him back.

The big question now is how healthy can he get, given that back injuries are notoriously difficult to recover from and you frequently hear about how people never feel the same after back surgery. The only real answer to that question is time will tell, but I like to think that he will make a full recovery as watching a potentially all-time great player in the making is an absolute pleasure. It’s possible that he will never reach those heights again, but I’m hoping that Watt proves the doubters, including me wrong on this one.

The End of Streaks

29 Thursday Sep 2016

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It was a strange week three that saw many a game going differently to how people expected, and saw both Dan and I get murdered on our picks.

I wrote before making my picks last week that I expected more teams to get their first loss or win than continue their streaks, but it seems I picked all of the wrong ones and even in the games where I made the right choice, those choices were hardly convincing.

  • One of the unbeaten Texans and Patriots had to lose their first game, but whilst I acknowledged that Bill Belichick could win this game, I was not expecting the Patriots to manage a 27-0 win over the Texans.
  • The Cardinals went to Buffalo and lost, giving them a losing record and granting the Bills their first win of the season and resulting in the usual Rex Ryan bravado about facing the Patriots this week.
  • The Broncos went to 3-0 with an impressive win in Cincinnati where the Bengals defence stacked the box and dared Trevor Siemian to win the game with his arm, which he promptly did.
  • Even when I picked the Dolphins to beat the winless Browns in Miami and get their first win of the season, they needed overtime to do it and were nowhere near the ten point lead I needed for my pick to come through.
  • I expected the Viking to keep the game close against the Panthers, but instead ran out with a victory to remain unbeaten despite their injury troubles.
  • I didn’t see Washington beating a Giants team that were off to a great start, and yet they managed it whilst Odell Beckham grabbed headlines with another emotional outburst. This time the talented receiver lost a fight to a field goal net on the Giant’s side-line.
  • The Ravens went down to Jacksonville to face a desperate Jaguars team who were not desperate enough to avoid going 0-3, whilst the Ravens have the quietest unbeaten record in the league.
  • The Colts were one of only three games featuring a 2-0 or 0-2 record that I picked correctly, when they managed to get a win over the visiting Chargers who now have a perfect record of played three, lost three starters for the season to injury.
  • The Eagles put pay to the Steelers unbeaten record and kept their own, making the hype surrounding Carson Wentz even greater. I am so impressed with the Eagles coaching staff and the turnaround they have made so far, I’m really looking forward to seeing how this team develop over the rest of the season.
  • The Bears continued to lose, giving me my only other totally correct pick of week two where I got it right and the game went how I expected.
  • Finally, I was tempted into picking the Falcons because of an extra half point the Saints were giving up, but it turns out that the Falcons didn’t need these points as they ran out easy winners in a game of a lot of points.

Now, the wonderful thing about the NFL is that it is doing a sterling job of giving us talking points and excitement over the weekends, but boy is it making predicting what is going to happen difficult.

Still it is still early, and even though I will be writing my quarter poll summary in a couple of weeks, there are very few teams that should be truly despondent. However, whilst the Cleveland Browns were never likely to be looking for anything other than progress, and to their credit they are playing tough for the Hue Jackson in his first year, the Bears, Saints, and Jaguars are all in trouble. Only three teams have made the playoffs after starting 0-3 since 1990 when the playoff format was expanded to its current format. The Bears were expected to be rebuilding this year even if the injuries have made things worse than I was expecting, but the Jaguars were hoping to make the next step and push for the playoffs whilst the Saints have a Super Bowl winning quarterback who they have failed to surround with enough talent to push as far as they would expect.

The Jaguars are a particular disappointment as they head over to London to host the Colts this week, and already people are wondering if the London game is going to cost another head coach his job. Despite the warm feelings that everyone who has ever dealt with Gus Bradley seems to have, it is hard to see the Jaguars owner putting up with these results for much longer, and the Jaguars will need to turn things round quickly if Bradley is to keep his job past the end of the season.

And continuing the theme of disappointment, the big news of the last twenty-four hours is that JJ Watt has been placed on injured reserve as he having more problems with his back, and could possibly be gone for the season. I’ll write a little more about this over the weekend as I was already going through the coaching tape of Watt vs the Patriots, but hopefully he can make it all the way back as he is one of my favourite players to watch, but back injuries are hard ones to return from and people who’ve had such problems often say that they never felt the same.

The week five games look to offer plenty of excitement and intrigue, but already the attrition has really started to affect some teams, and it is an all too prescient reminder of how tough a game American Football is. I never want to see a player injured, but I will confess that part of me is curious to see what the Patriots would do if they were forced to play Julian Edelman as their quarterback.

Still, it is time to start looking at this week’s games, starting with tonight’s game that pits Dan’s Dolphins on the road against my beloved Bengals.

Our records are nothing to shout home about, particularly after our disastrous previous week, but I did manage to maintain my three point lead:

Gee:      Week 3   5-11                     Overall   21-27
Dan:       Week 3   5-11                     Overall   18-30

Dolphins @ Bengals (-6.5)

The Bengals lost their first home game of the season, in what has been a tricky open to the season, but if they can get back to 2-2 they can still hope to make a push for the playoffs. It appears that Tyler Eifert is not going to make it back for the game, but Vontaze Burfict comes off suspension and is likely to help the Bengals defence straight away. I think the Browns are going to give teams a tough game at the moment so I’m not reading too much into last week’s result for the Dolphins, but an overtime game before a short week road game is not the best prep, and I’m hopeful that the Bengals can win and hopefully find some rhythm on offence. For one game only I’m borrowing from Dan and picking blindly based on my fandom.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

25 Sunday Sep 2016

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Houston Texan 0
New England Patriots 27

This is a slightly odd game to write up as it was so incredibly one sided, and even though I said when I picked the Texans that I could see the Patriots winning the game, I was not thinking with a result like this.

The Patriots dominated the Texans in all three phases of the game and so I will start with mention of the Patriots in special teams. One feature that has already been pretty prominent this season is the Patriot’s reaction to the new kick off rules, with them deliberately kicking the ball short of the end zone and backing their coverage team to tackle before the twenty-five yard line and so give them an advantage in field position. Add this to them regularly pining the Texans behind the twenty yard line by punting, and they had a decided advantage in special teams even before the Texans started fumbling their returns.

On offence the Patriots demonstrated that they don’t have a single game plan, but adjust to both their opponent and the strength of their team, and so with a rookie third string quarterback they went very run heavy whilst using stunts and extra linemen to control the Texan’s defensive front. This they did very effectively, and whilst they were not explosive on offence, they did enough. This is even more impressive when you find out that in the second quarter Jacoby Brissett sprained his thumb. The Patriots may have only generated one hundred and three yards of passing offence on eleven completions from nineteen attempts, but when you can get one hundred and eighty-five yards on the ground then this doesn’t matter.

The Texans defence was pretty ineffective, which JJ Watt kept remarkably quiet. It is hard to write too much about them in a game like this, they kept in control of the passing game, but that really wasn’t the focus of the Patriots offence. How they allowed the known to be mobile Brissett to run twenty-seven yards for a touchdown is a mystery, and they will be hoping that this was just a blip in the season and Watt’s problems were simply caused by a road game on a short week whilst still coming back from a back injury.

If the defensive problem for the Texans were possibly a blip, the offensive struggles are actually pretty worrying. The game plan did not work at all, with a surprising number of attempted runs on third down, and the Texans didn’t even make it into the Patriots half of the field until the third quarter. It didn’t seem that Brock Osweiler could drive the team in this game, and DeAndre Hopkins had to make some pretty spectacular catches to get his four catches for fifty-six yards. All too often Osweiler would throw to Lamar Miller or Ryan Griffin underneath, and he will have to improve greatly to justify his seventeen million dollar a year contract. It must also be worrying that Bill O’Brien was so outcoached on his side of the ball, but plenty of coordinators have failed against Bill Belichick.

The Patriots defence really had the number of the Texans all game, and whilst there was no one area obviously dominant, they were able to contain the Texans all game and certainly never allowed them to sustain a drive. The interception by Jamie Collins was as much because Osweiler simply didn’t see him lurking in the middle of the field, and Jabaal Sheard got both of the team’s sacks, but in keeping with the overall nature of this game it was a team performance that was the story of the defence.

The Patriots keep rolling, and I don’t think anyone would bet against them going 4-0 without Tom Brady despite the injury problems stacking up at quarterback, especially with the Bills visiting them next week.

The Texans will be hoping this was a one off anomaly, but with the offensive problems and JJ Watt not looking at all himself, there will be concern until they can put a run of results together.

Everybody has a plan until you hit them in the mouth

22 Thursday Sep 2016

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I won’t go into the reasons why me usual routine has been turned around this week, but it does remind of the various quotes regarding what happens to plans when they run into reality.

The NFL is a very real reminder of this, with various teams already facing very different situations than they expected. Of course, for the Vikings the plan didn’t even survive the pre-season, with Teddy Bridgewater going down with his horrible knee injury in practice. This not only affected the Vikings, but Carson Wentz is now starting and surprising everyone with the quality of his play for the Eagles after Philidelphia traded the expected starter Sam Bradford to the Vikings. Both teams are now 2-0, with Bradford surprising everyone with his performance against Green Bay on Sunday as the Vikings eked out a win despite losing Adrian Peterson to a torn meniscus that could keep him out until the postseason.

Meanwhile, the Browns who traded down with the Eagles, allowing the team from Philadelphia to select Wentz are facing questions about what they didn’t like about the quarterback. If the Browns are the ones that are getting asked the questions now having lost two starting quarterbacks in the first two weeks, there could be some awkward questions for the Rams who picked Jared Goff instead of Wentz. With Goff failing to even dress in week one, and the offence still not having scored a touchdown this season, you can see people beginning to wonder about the decision even if the questioning does seem to have been delayed by the win the Rams ground out against the Seahawks on Sunday.

These days everybody wants to declare the winners and losers as soon as possible, despite the fact things are often far more complex than they seen. Planning is important, but rarely do even the most basic plans survive when you put them into action.

The thing we need in life to counter this is adaptability and resilience. The mental toughness to take what is thrown at you is often the difference between trying to do something, and the perseverance to make it a success.

The actual truth is that we don’t know how either Goff or Wentz’s actual careers will go, two games of their rookie season is simply not a big enough sample size, and the thing I like about the way the Rams holding out Goff is that if he’s not ready he shouldn’t just be thrown in. Because we picked him first is a really bad reason to start a quarterback. If you have a player you hope will play of a decade, it doesn’t make sense to play them early to appease the matter of winning now, or at least it doesn’t if there is a real risk that you could hurt the development of the player.

Sometimes circumstances don’t allow for this. Tonight the New England Patriots will be starting rookie Jacoby Brissett thanks to a combination of Tom Brady’s four game suspension and Jimmy Garopollo spraining his throwing shoulder during last week’s win against the Miami Dolphins. I am looking forward to seeing how Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick scheme an offence in only three days practice for a third round draft pick who was their third string quarterback going into the season.

For some this would be too much, and excuse for a team to lose a game, but somehow I think that at least part of the coaches will be relishing the challenge.

You trust that he’ll get good coaching but it’s a hell of a task and there simply could be not enough time, which leads me to tonight’s pick:

Texans @ Patriots (-0.5)

It turns out that apart from lots of points, the other thing that will get me to pick against the Patriots is being down to their third string quarterback with only three days to prepare. I’m not saying that the Patriots won’t win tonight, but it is a big ask and not one I’m prepared to pick as the most likely to happen. Watch Bill Belichick prove me wrong.

Gee’s Pick:           Texans
Dan’s Pick:           Texans

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 15

31 Sunday Jan 2016

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With just one (albeit huge) game left for the season, Dan and Gee take a good look at Championship week. In the News, Richie Incognito is going to the Pro-Bowl, Tom Brady’s getting beaten up, and the Packers argue amongst themselves!

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 15

Playoffs, and the Conference Championship Games

24 Sunday Jan 2016

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Three games. That is all we have left if you discount the Pro Bowl, which I do. They look like exciting games, or at least intriguing, but I’ll be looking at them in a bit because what I want to focus on first is how we got here.

There is a simple reason that I am writing about this, which is that in the last two weeks I have found myself repeatedly reaching for the same phrase. This was one game too far for this team, or variations of that. And in each case I am talking about a team that has done well, but for various reasons fell short, but the primary one at this time of year seems to be injury. This is not a new theme for this blog, I have been writing about the importance of depth all season, but it takes on an extra significance at this time of year thanks to the structure of the NFL schedule.

All four of what are traditionally considered the major sports in America operates with a playoff structure, as well as the expanding MLS despite football’s tradition of leagues and parallel cup competitions across the globe. It is simply the expected format over in the States, and it still feels odd to someone who grew up with team sports being settled by everyone playing each other home and away in a league to decide the best team. In the NFL’s defence, there is simply no way for them to schedule such a league wide format with thirty-two teams who are already stretched to breaking point by a sixteen game schedule spread across seventeen weeks.

The reason I bring this up here, is that whilst all the sixteen games look to have the same mathematical value initially, in practice some games are literally more valuable than others. Thanks to the importance of winning your division, and the record comparison that can be used to determine who wins a division or makes the playoffs via the wildcard places, there are some games that are more helpful for getting to the playoffs than others. This in of itself is nothing new to competition, it is impossible to make things absolutely fair, and even in the league format scheduling and timing, not to mention the timing of injuries can play a significant role in the outcome.

For those who are not interested in Premier League football, one of the stories of the season has been Leicester City’s performance, which has seen them top the league and remain in contention through and after the festive period. For me this was always the real test as it is not uncommon for a team to have a good start, but have their performance tail off over the second half of the season, with the fixture congestion over the festive period often really testing a team’s squad and their ability to maintain a title challenge or a top four finish so they get into the Champions League. Not only is great for the team in your city to be on such a run of form, but in the last couple of weeks they have been social media contact between them and the Carolina Panthers, as City had spotted the similarity in both team’s season of unexpected success, and both clubs have been sending each other jerseys.

Whilst there is plenty of season to go for Leicester City, the Panthers are coming down to crunch time. I’m sure their fans won’t be thinking about it, but to some it might seem curious that a team which finished with a 15-1 record, two games better than any other team in the league, still have to win three games to be crowned champions. At its heart, the NFL is an entertainment business and so they can’t help by love the drama and tension of playoff football, and in fairness we all do.

I wouldn’t want to change this as I have already mentioned, but I do think it should be remembered when evaluating teams and players. I will cover the way injuries are likely to affect the teams when I go over the games, but I thought I would cover an aspect of the first game as I prepare to write about the Conference Championship games.

The number of people in involved in an American Football game is greater than any other sport that I can think of, with over forty active players, various coaches, and the required sport staff. It is very much a team game, which is what makes it somewhat ridiculous to start billing the upcoming Patriots at Broncos as Brady vs Manning seventeen. They are in very different places in their career right now, even if they are not so far apart in age. This could be the last game we see Peyton Manning play, the brain is still willing but the body whilst not exactly failing, is no longer truly up to the rigours of the NFL. The most frustrating thing for him must be that in most games he still makes a really good play, but he can no longer do it consistently and the arm strength has become a real problem.

The other qualifier that is often mentioned when looking back over Manning’s career is his playoff record, and this is usually compared negatively to Tom Brady’s. It is not that this is an unfair comparison, but that I think it gets over played. They are both outliers in terms of ability, each are Hall of Fame quarterbacks, and there is no argument that Brady has the more impressive post-season résumé. There is even a structural criticism in that by taking the salary that Manning has in a salary cap sport, it has meant that his teams have had to build their roster in a different way to the Patriots, where Tom Brady’s more team friendly deal allow the Patriots be more competitive. However, whilst I think there is some validity to all of this, the overlooked part is that Brady has also played his entire career with one of the all time great coaches, who not only wins tactically, but seems to have mastered the art of taking players that other coaches have let go, and put them into a position to succeed with the skills they do have.

In a culture where we seem to love building up heroes and then knocking them down, there is so much to admire in Manning’s come back from four neck surgeries and his performance over the last few seasons. One of the best defences we have seen in a long time stopped him winning that second Super Bowl, and it wasn’t him who snapped the ball over his head. There are different ways of leading, it doesn’t have to be screaming and shouting on the side line, and Manning’s preparedness is legendary.

All of these things will be played out one more time in the AFC Conference Championship, which will be hugely pressured, but in something as volatile as game of football there are no guarantees. Not only that, but injuries could well play a part as the four top seeded team play for the right to face each other in the Super Bowl.

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

In the opening drive of last week’s game we saw that the Patriots had managed their injuries well over the last few weeks of the season, and looked more like themselves on offence. Tom Brady was able to get the ball out quickly again, as the Patriots threw the ball all over the Kansas City Chiefs, who were unable to get pressure on Brady. The Patriots come into this game with not the best history of playing in Denver, and they face a team that have been winning ugly all season.

The Broncos won last week with a solitary touchdown on offence, but with better special teams than the Pittsburgh Steelers and a defence that held Ben Roethlisberger and his receivers in check. However, a large concern for them is that corner Chris Harris is struggling with a shoulder problem and was in and out of the game a lot. This is a problem for the Broncos defence as he is their most effective slot corner, and when facing a team with both Danny Amendola, and particularly Julian Edelman, you want your best slot corner to be on top of their game as they will do their damage from these positions.

The other worry for the Broncos is that Belichick’s game plan on defence is always to take away what the opposition do well and force them to win by doing something they are less comfortable with. I would expect this to take the form of the Patriots focusing on stopping the run and short passes by packing the middle of the field, daring Manning to make the deep and sideline throws that have given him problems this season. With some of the injuries to the Patriots front seven, it might be that the Broncos will be able to run the ball, but they will have to if they are to keep this game close.

I am expecting the Patriots to win this game, I think that the better balance between offence and defence will be too much for the Broncos to overcome, but they got here for a reason and so if they can keep it a tight game they stand a chance. There is part of me that still wonder if Manning has one or two moments of magic left in him, but even if he hasn’t, it has still been an incredible career.

Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers

This is going to be a cold game, with the east coast storms freezing an already torn up grass field. It is into this environment that the Cardinals come after playing three straight games in the warm dome that they call home.

More worrying for the Cardinals is that quarterback Carson Palmer was clearly having problems throwing the ball last week. It may be that his finger will feel better for another week of recovery, or they can make further changes to the taping of it, but balls were consistently sailing on Palmer lat week. Not only that, but he didn’t look quite as poised or as aggressive as he has for most of the season, and the long ball is a big part of Bruce Arians’ offence.

They are going against a team whose defence has been excellent, but with the injuries in the secondary, you might be able to get at the Panthers with the deep passing game. However, in Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short the Panthers have two defensive tackle that could really cause the Cardinals problems with pressure up the middle, which stops a quarterback from stepping up and Carson Palmer was never the most mobile of quarterbacks. The defence also features one of my favourite player sin Luke Kuechly, one of the best linebackers currently playing who is equally effective making a tackle in the run game as he is when dropping back in coverage. The Panthers will be hoping their predominantly zone coverage will hold up against an offence that loves to attack a defence at multiple levels.

The Panthers power running game might be well suited to counter the aggressive Cardinals defence, particularly as the Cardinals play with a converted safety at linebacker, relying on the speed of their extra secondary players, which might struggle on the Panthers’ turf. However, the Panthers have been making their passing game work with a less than stellar group of receivers, and Arians has been talking about how the Cardinals’ focus will be stopping tight end Greg Olson. Whether this will be enough with Cam Newton’s deep passing game causing many teams problems, particularly as you have to respect the dual threat that Jonathan Stewart and he present in the running game when they run play action, is yet to be seen.

I think this is likely to be my favourite game of this week. I have so much respect for both coaches, and it will be great to see an unfamiliar team going to the Super Bowl from the NFC given the recent stretch of dominance from the Seattle Seahawk.

Most of all however, we should be savouring both of these games as there is so little football left. Sure we will all be pouring over the offseason moves as every fan base transitions into the hopeful offseason part of the year, but the games are what it is all about. More on that next week.

Heroes, and the Divisional Weekend

16 Saturday Jan 2016

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It has been a rough few days. Between Lemmy’s funeral, the Bengals’ implosion, and then Bowie’s death, I have been wandering around in something of a haze. That’s two music icons and personal heroes gone, along with the continuing twenty-five year wait for a playoff win. That’s not even a championship, but the hope that the team, fans, and the city of Cincinnati would be spared a fifth consecutive playoff loss, but I’ll come back to the Wildcard games in a bit.

In the days following Bowie’s death there have been some writing that they don’t understand the outpouring of grief over a musician, that this is someone that you have never met so why are you sad? The answer to that was put rather beautifully by Lauren Laverne on her Monday radio show, because of course it is personal, music has that strange and magical hook direct into your soul. It has the power to soothe, to inspire, it is the soundtrack to your life, and can take you back to a key moments from your past in an instant. Part of our identity is what we chose to love, what is important to us. This is the same process that makes someone care about the outcome of twenty-two men chasing a ball around a field, what films we like to watch, or what books we read. It is all a part of how we identify ourselves, how we express to the world who and what we are.

I have written before on the positive effects that sport can have, particularly with participation, but also for simply taking someone out of themselves. What I love about Bowie was his endless exploration of self-expression. This pursuit wasn’t a search for a new on trend sound that would help further his career, but the continuing development of a curious artist. I don’t have the single personal moment of a song telling me that I could do or be something that I have heard so many talk about in the last few days. I am too young for him to have revolutionised what was possible, for me it had already happened, but oh boy what a catalogue of songs. To me he was intrinsically intertwined with what a musician should be, and so as a drummer, therefore what I should aspire to be. I can’t hear Rebel Rebel without thinking about my dad, it was one of those conversations father and sons have across generations when they both love music. We all have heroes and influences. Some people have a select few. I could wax lyrical on scientists, politicians, artists of all hues, and yes sports people.

Even as I write the first draft of this blog, we have learned that Alan Rickman has also passed away, again aged 69 and killed by cancer. Death is not something we like to think about, it is an all too painful reminder of our own mortality. It is even more shocking when it comes as a surprise, when we were ignorant of the illness, when an album was only released three days earlier.

So how do I pull this back to sport of all things? Well by dint of the aforementioned discussion on policing grief. Like all things, there are degrees of grief. Life in all its infinite complex glory gives us endless things to care about, and usually concern over one thing does not deny concern about the other. We have to have some kind of balance, otherwise we’d collapse under the cares of the world. I am saddened by the death of a hero. But what about all the wars? My team lost a playoff game. Are you not concerned by the systematic dismantling of the welfare state? My team is moving city. Do I contradict myself? Very well then, I contradict myself. I am large, I contain multitudes.

With apologies to Walt Whitman, we’ll get back to football, and the various sets of fans that have had a pretty bad week as well.

The Houston Texans had done well to even make the playoffs, but last weekend really was one game too far. The game started with a one hundred and six yard kick off return touchdown by the Chiefs, and things never improved as the Texans slipped to a 30-0 loss. The defence actually gave a reasonable account of themselves, especially with JJ Watt having further injuries, but the offence was horrible. Racking up five turnovers, with Brian Hoyer throwing four interceptions and two fumbles, losing one to the Chiefs, things never got going in the passing game. In fairness, having your starting left tackle is always going to hurt, but the lack of options behind DeAndre Hopkins really hurt the Texans, and you have to think they will be looking to address this in the offseason.

I have said playoff win or bust for the Bengals all season, and it was another painful loss. However, if last year’s loss was explainable by the number of injuries to the skill positions on offence, then this one was understandable given the Bengals were without their starting quarterback and still gave a reasonable account of themselves in the fourth quarter. Despite not scoring in the first three quarters, AJ McCarron put the Bengals in a position to win the game, and they had the ball with 1:50 left on the clock. With a year left on his contract, building one of the league’s most talented rosters, and with his coaching tree still expanding, it appears that Marvin Lewis is safe for another year in Cincinnati, but he will have to address the issue of discipline/poise in the offseason. I have no issue with either of the late penalties that cost the Bengals this game, although Joey Porter had no business being on the field and another coach had already pulled Reggie Nelson’s dreadlocks on the sideline, but you have to be smarter than both Burfict and Jones were at the end of this game. I am sure the league will be looking at ways to control this fixture going forward as they will desperate to avoid the rancour escalating further given the Steelers and Bengals face each other twice a season. Already Hue Jackson has left to be head coach of the Cleveland Browns, so it will be another season of change at coordinator for the Bengals, but so much of the team’s recent success has been built through the offseason and draft that hopefully this part of the process will take care of itself once more.

The most painful loss of the Wildcard round has to be the Minnesota Viking’s agonising last second loss on a missed chip shot twenty-seven yard field goal. You have to think that Blair Walsh will be thinking about that kick for years to come, but this should not take the gloss of the continuing progress the Vikings have made, In ex-Bengal coordinator Mike Zimmer’s second year in charge the Vikings were able to wrestle the NFC North division away from the Green Bay Packers, and have a young foundation to build on. They need to sure up the offensive line and get Teddy Bridgewater some options on offence, but the Vikings have a very tough defence and are heading in the right direction. You can argue that they have the most to look forward to out of the four teams that were eliminated last weekend.

That said, Washington are also making good progress in another ex-Bengals coordinator’s second year in charge. Fittingly, old offensive coordinator Jay Gruden found a formula during the course of the season that turned quarterback Kirk Cousins into one of the most effective passers in the league in the final weeks. With two solid receivers and a very promising progression from tight end Jordan Reid there is hope for them next season. They will need to strengthen their defence, particularly in the secondary, if they want to compete in their division again next season, but they were able to compete with the Packers for three quarters. There looks to be a foundation to build from as long as they can sign Cousins to a sensible contract.

I will come back to the franchises that are moving in the offseason once all the deals have been firmed up, but I can’t help feeling sorry for the fans in St. Louis who are losing their team. It at least makes sense for the Rams to return to Los Angeles, and the offer has been made for the Chargers to join them. We will have to see if they agree, but it looks likely that they will be on the move in some way or the other. At least the Raiders look set to stay in Oakland, but I’m sure their fans won’t feel safe until the franchise finds a long term stadium solution.

So now onto this week’s games, which unsurprising all look to be great.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots

All the talk about the Patriots is that they are getting all their key players back, and that just having Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski back will enable to Tom Brady to get the ball out quicker, helping the Patriots in pass protection. This is likely to be the deciding factor in this game, the Chiefs defence has been excellent for most of the season since they got corner Shaun Smith back from injury, but their pass rush will need to be effective if the Chiefs are to win this game.

The Patriots defence has been good for large chunks of the season, but the Chiefs have been getting it done without spectacular passing numbers from Alex Smith, who doesn’t turn the ball over. They actually seem to have improved since running back Jamaal Charles has gone down, but it will be interesting to see if they can scheme their way into competing in this game.

I wouldn’t like to call this game as there are too many injury unknowns, but I am expecting a good contest.

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals

I am looking forward to this game as the Cardinals are my favourite team left in the competition. Their aggressive long passing game has been effective against virtually everyone, whilst they got a huge amount of pressure on Aaron Rodgers the last time they played.

The Packers may have pulled away from Washington at the end of the game, but the offence still hasn’t proved to me that it can play against man coverage, which has been their downfall for much of the season. If they can turn the Cardinal’s aggressive pass rush against them, then they might be able to win this game as their defence has been playing well recently, but I am expecting them to come up short in this one.

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers

The Seahawks are a good team, but they are lucky to be playing in this game. They should have lost against the Vikings if Blair Walsh hadn’t missed the last second field goal. Their offence got very little going last week except when for when Russell Wilson made plays out of structure, but the Seahawks defence is looking good once more and should keep them in contention.

However, the one area the Seahawks defence have struggled with is against tight ends, and Cam Newton’s favourite target this season has been tight end Greg Olson. The Panthers beat the Seahawks in week six, and with their own great defence you would expect them to repeat the feat at home. The Seahawks are always a dangerous proposition in the post season, but you don’t go 15-1 without being very good.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos

Our final game of the weekend sees Peyton Manning start the game after an injury plagued season where he has ranked amongst the worst quarterbacks in the league. We really can’t be sure how effective the offence will be against a Steelers defence that plays better than its patchy secondary, but the Broncos have been like this all season. What has got them into the playoffs is a fearsome defence, and although they had difficulties against the Steelers earlier in the season, they have been mixing more zone into their coverages, which might help them as the Bengals’ two high safety look did limit the Steelers’ passing attack.

The Steelers will be concerned about attempting their normal game on offence, as Antonio Brown has been ruled out of this week’s game with the concussion he sustained at the end of the game against the Bengals. Somehow Ben Roethlisberger is only questionable despite a sprained AC join and torn ligaments in his throwing shoulder. If you combine this with the injuries to their running backs and the Steelers might just be too injured to win this one. They will play the Broncos tough, but I would have more faith in the Bronco’s Brock Osweiler than Landry Jones if it does come down to a battle of the backups. I’m expecting the Steelers’ defence to blitz the Broncos heavily to keep themselves in the game, but I think this could be a week too many for the Steelers.

It should be a great set of games this weekend, and let’s hope the world eases up on us a bit going into next week.

 

What I Have Learned this Season, Packers @ Lions, and Week 13 Picks

06 Sunday Dec 2015

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We are one week away from being three quarters of the way through the season, and I know how I’m feeling so what it must be like for the players I don’t know. As I’m finally getting a chance to sit down and write I thought I would take a look at some of the things I have learned through the course of this season, particularly in the light of recent results.

It is a long season. It’s a marathon not a sprint. We are used to the coverage discussing how long the season is, but this year I have really noticed the ebb and flow that occurs during a single team’s season. The New England Patriots may have a 10-1 record, but the injuries have slowly accrued to a point where they have lost their first game, and it wouldn’t necessarily surprise me if they drop some more, at least until they can get Rob Gronkowski back on offence. But it is not just the attrition throughout the season that needs to be taken into account; coaching and progress should be looked at as well. The Kansas City Chiefs had a bad start to the season, going 1-5 before turning things around, winning five straight and getting themselves back into the playoff hunt. If the season ended today they would have a wildcard spot, and whilst the return of their corner Sean Smith has had a huge effect on their pass defence, turning them into one of the better defences in the league, they have also had to deal with the huge loss of running back Jamaal Charles, usually central to theor offence, so there is more to it than one player coming back. That said, too many injuries in one position can completely derail a team. There is no excuse for the state of the San Diego Chargers defence, but there have been so many injuries to their offensive line that you can see why they have had so many problems protecting Philip Rivers this year.

With all that said, sometimes it just takes time for a team to gel. I was as critical as anyone regarding what Bill O’Brien was doing with his quarterbacks in Houston at the start of the season. The old saying that if you have two quarterbacks then you don’t have any seemed very apt. Not only was this causing problems, but despite having some very recognisable names on the defence, including arguably the best player in football, the Texans were giving up a lot of points, giving up over forty twice as they started the season 2-5 as their defence struggled. However, once Ryan Mallet finally pushed management too far by missing the team plane down to Miami and finally got himself cut things started to settle on offence a little. More importantly though, the defence finally seemed to find its identity, allowing opposition offences less than ten points three times in the last four games as they rolled off four straight wins to get them back into the AFC South race.

One team who are very much not moving in the right direction are the Philadelphia Eagles, with one of the things that I misjudged being how their form in pre-season and would translate into the regular season. I was already aware that the teams do not game plan in the preseason, and mainly what I enjoy is getting a first look at the year’s draft class and the development of young players who may not get that much playing time during the actual season. However, everyone was take in by how well the Eagles offence was performing during the preseason, but once the regular season got under way it quickly became apparent that all was not well on that side of the ball. There is a lot of debate as to whether Chips Kelly’s up temp offence can continue to work in NFL, reliant as it is on simple concepts that are repeated frequently as it simply not possible to run that many different concepts at that pace. This in of itself doesn’t worry me so much as what appears to be Kelly’s reliance on his system. I was as impressed as anyone by Chip Kelly’s early success in Philadelphia, and this was only further enhanced after hearing an extended interview with him talking about his practice regime. However, the first problem I see with the Eagles is to do with the level of buy in that he demands of his players, which I can understand as a concept and certainly contributed to his college success. In the NFL though, as good as a coach as you are, there are thirty-one other coaches at the top of their game, with an enormous amount of time invested in preparation. You can find edges through coaching, but at the NFL level such advantages are very fine, and you can very rarely win outright by outcoaching your opponent, at some point you need to create mismatches and have enough players win their one on one matchups to win a game. Kelly though, has shipped out a surprising amount of talent from the Eagles in favour of young players who he can mould, this may work out if he is given time, but the players right now are not as good and you only have to look at the play of the offensive line now compared to when he joined to see that certain groups have taken a step back. Not only is there this to contend with, but if you are a system coach, you walk a very fine line as you need the right players to run your system perfectly and these might not always be available. Finally, if you are an innovator, particularly one with a track record in college rather than in the pros, then people will start to second guess you if things are not going well, and they certainly are not in for the Eagles in recent weeks.

I don’t think there is anything wrong with having a coaching philosophy, in fact having read Pete Carroll’s book in the offseason I think that sitting down and actually developing your philosophy into a coherent core that you can clearly articulate is of huge benefit. That said, I also think that if you introduce a degree of flexibility into your approach, being prepared to compromise to make the most of the players you have, then this can lead to more sustainable success. If you want proof of this then just take a look at the way that Bill Belichick and his staff continually scour the league and get something out of players that other teams have failed to do so.

Further proof of this maxim can be found in the unbeaten Carolina Panthers, who no one was expecting to play like this at the beginning of the year. There were concerns about their offensive line and they lost their leading receiver from last season before the season had even started. However, they are getting what they need out of the players that they have, and there is perhaps no finer microcosm of this philosophy than what they are doing with Cam Newton. There are not too many six foot five, two hundred and forty-five pound quarterbacks in the league (Newton’s size according to the Panthers’ website), with Cam’s ability to run the ball. However, they built a running game around the dual threat of him and running back Jonathan Stuart, as well as utilising his connection with tight end Greg Olson and ability to throw the deep ball. He may not show the touch that you would ideally like, but he has been undeniably effective since Ron Riviera felt Newton was healthy enough during the 2014 season to use the offensive game plan they had been keeping under wraps since the preceding preseason because of the injuries Newton had been carrying. You may still worry about the long term effects of a quarterback taking this many hits, but he is built like a football player, and still has time to work on a transition such a Ben Roethlisberger has made, into a pocket passer.

One of the things that I do think is important in the successful running of a sports club is giving a coach time, which seems to be given in increasingly smaller amounts these days across many sports, and even the NFL is starting to follow this trend. We have had several coaching changes, with two head coaching firings that have brought dubious results, and several coordinators taking the fall. However, the Lions took this a step further when their ninety year old owner declared that enough was enough, and she fired the GM along with the head of operations. This was after Jim Caldwell had fired his offensive coordinator and the coaches that had been working with their offensive line going into their trip to London. This did not produce immediate results, as I witnessed in person as the Lions were systematically taken apart by the Kansas City Chiefs at Wembley. However, following the additional firings and their bye week the Lion’s had won three straight games going into week thirteen including their first win in Green Bay since 1991 off the back of improved defence performances, but crucially an offence that seems to be coming together under new coordinator Jim Bob Cooter. This all leads me quite nicely to Thursday’s return fixture in Detroit.

Packers @ Lions

There isn’t quite time for me to do a full game write up, but there was now way I could skip over the Miracle in Motown, which I am sure you will have heard of by now. If not, the game came down to a last ditch drive, where on what should have been the final play of the game, a facemask penalty called on a Lions’ defender led to one final play with no time on the clock. This has only happened in the NFL a total of five times, and two of them have been this season. In this case, the Lions rushed three and failed to stop a sixty-one yard Hail Mary pass to tight end Richard Rodgers that won the Packers the game. But it very easily could have finished a different way.

In the first quarter the Packers struggled, finding it difficult to move the ball and they ended the quarter seventeen points down. The Lions were able to move the ball, and when Aaron Rodgers threw only his fifth interception of the year, Matthew Stafford immediately answered with a seventeen yard touchdown pass to Calvin Johnson. However, the Packers defence stiffened in the second quarter, but the offence continued to struggle and failed to score before half-time, leading to a twenty point deficit.

The Packers slowly dragged themselves back into the game in the second half, with solid defence and a key strip of Matthew Stafford by Julius Peppers that swiftly led to a second touchdown meaning that the Lions lead was down to six by the start of the fourth quarter.

It has to be said that the Packers offence still struggled in the second half, but third string running back John Crocket added a small spark in the running game, but the most effect methods the Packers found to move the ball were screen passes/dump offs to James Starks, and passes to Richard Rodgers who finished the game with one hundred and forty-six yards from eight catches, including the game winning touchdown to seal the game.

The Packers may have got back to winning ways, but it was not in the way that they would have envisaged, and the Lions will be kicking themselves about how late they left it in the season before they found a formula that works. If the Lions can find suitable replacements for their front office, there are things that they can build on for next season unless they chose to blow things up, but we shall have to see what path they chose to take. The Packers meanwhile have kept themselves in playoff contention, but they will need to find a more stable formula if they want to make sure of getting there and leaving a mark in the post season.

And now on to the rest of this week’s picks:

Falcons @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

The Flacons need to stop turning the ball over if they want to get back to winning ways, and they are running out of time if they want to get back into the playoff hunt given Seattle’s recent improvements. The question will be whether they are going to start this turnaround against a Buccaneers team that have definitely improved in recent weeks. The Falcons might be getting Devonta Freeman back this week, but the Bucs actually rank second in the NFL in rush defence by DVOA according to Football Outsiders, as well as being the higher ranked team in both general and weighted DVOA, which is leading me to nervously back the home team in this one.

Gee’s Pick:         Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:         Falcons

Texans @ Bills (-2.5)

The Bills have been better in recent weeks, but are still up and down, with the only unit on either team I really trust being the recently very stingy Texans’ defence, so that is where I’m picking in this one.

Gee’s Pick:         Texans
Dan’s Pick:         Texans

49ers @ Bears (-6.5)

The 49ers defence has been okay at home in recent weeks and Blaine Gabbert has at least looked like a competent NFL quarterback, but this week they are in Chicago and not San Francisco. Add the travelling across country to the fact that the Bears are progressing in John Fox’s first season and are coming off a road win in Green Bay, and I think I have to back the Bears in this one despite the points.

Gee’s Pick:         Bears
Dan’s Pick:         Bears

Bengals @ Browns (+6.5)

This feels like a trap game for me in that the Browns and Bengals games have often been close contests, with this game being in Cleveland and NFL touchdown leader Tyler Eifert likely missing the game, I could see the Bengals struggling to cover these points. However, there are still so many options for Andy Dalton that I think they will cope in this game against a Browns team who are on a short week.

Gee’s Pick:         Bengals
Dan’s Pick:         Bengals

Jaguars @ Titans (-2.5)

The Jaguars just squeaked out a win only a couple of weeks ago when they entertained the Titans, and with the injury to Allen Hearns you might be tempted to back the Titans at home in this one. I am always wary of long streaks as they have to end at some point, and it has been a very long time since the fans in Tennessee have seen their team win in person, but I can’t bring myself to pick them doing it this week with this many points.

Gee’s Pick:         Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:         Jaguars

Cardinals @ Rams (+5.5)

The Rams under Jeff Fisher have often kept their games with the better teams in the league close, and actually beat the Cardinals in Arizona earlier in the year. However, their offensive line is a mess through injury, they have very little passing game, which allows a defence to focus on bottling up Todd Gurly. The Rams defence might be very good, but the Cardinals offence has been lighting everybody up and I have a feeling they will want to get revenge as they head into St Louis.

Gee’s Pick:         Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:         Cardinals

Ravens @ Dolphins (-4.5)

I’m really torn on this game, as the Ravens have kept every game close, but it took two special teams touchdowns for them to beat the Browns last week, and they are travelling to Miami on a short week to play on the road for a second week in a row. The Dolphins have just fired their offensive coordinator as Dan Campbell was not happy with the play calling or rush/pass balance. However, the Ravens run defence is still solid and I am not sure the Dolphins truly have the passing game to take advantage of the Ravens’ defensive frailties. Almost any result feels in play with this one, and so for the simple reason that I don’t feel comfortable backing either team I will take the points.

Gee’s Pick:         Ravens
Dan’s Pick:         Dolphins

Seahawks @ Vikings (-0.5)

This is another tough game for me to call, and I am getting no help from the line whatsoever. I can see arguments for both sides, but in the end I trust Russell Wilson more than Teddy Bridgewater in what I expect to be a really good game.

Gee’s Pick:         Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:         Vikings

Jets @ Gaints (+1.5)

The Giants are still inconsistent, whilst the Jets have got a little healthier on offence and given that essentially both teams are at home, I think that the Jets will win this one as I believe they are the better team even if their records are not that different.

Gee’s Pick:         Jets
Dan’s Pick:         Jets

Broncos @ Chargers (+4.5)

The Broncos have a formula, whilst the Chargers are a mess despite getting a win last week that I was not expecting. The Broncos defence is still one of the best units in the game, and I expect the Chargers to struggle on both sides of the ball in this one so I think the Broncos will cover on the road.

Gee’s Pick:         Broncos
Dan’s Pick:         Broncos

Chiefs @ Raiders (+2.5)

The Chiefs are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, whilst the Raiders are going through the growing pains of having a young team that possibly still lacks a bit of talent. The Chiefs however are sensing that a playoff push is possible, and so despite being on the road in Oakland, I think they will win this one.

Gee’s Pick:         Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:         Chiefs

Eagles @ Patriots (-9.5)

Wow this is a lot of points, particularly for a banged up Patriots team, and yet I’m still torn on this one. The Eagles have given up over forty points in their last two games, losing to both the Lions and the Buccaneers. I really want to pick the Patriots to cover this one, but I’m not quite brave enough, and with a reasonable lead in the picks competition I don’t need to be taking such risks. I will kick myself if the Patriots cover, but I’m not confident they will.

Gee’s Pick:         Eagles
Dan’s Pick:         Eagles

Panthers @ Saints (+7.5)

This is a lot of points, but Saints defence did not improve last week, and I get the feeling that the Panthers will continue with their focussed approach this week and will cover this spread in New Orleans.

Gee’s Pick:         Panthers
Dan’s Pick:         Panthers

Colts @ Steelers (-6.5)

The Colts have played will with Matt Hasselbeck, but I think they are finally going to meet their match coming into Pittsburgh to face the Steelers who are still very effective at moving the ball. I think the wheels have to fall off at some point for the Colts, and it might be worth watching this game just to see if either head coach makes a final move for the worst fake punt play of the season.

Gee’s Pick:         Steelers
Dan’s Pick:         Steelers

Cowboys @ Washington (-3.5)

I am happy that we can finally write off the Cowboys, and Washington have quietly been an okay home team so I expect them to win this one, with them somehow still being in contention for the division.

Gee’s Pick:         Washington
Dan’s Pick:         Washington