Colts @ Bills (-3.5)

The Buffalo Bills still stand an outside chance of squeezing into the playoffs, but they need to keep winning and the injury to Tyrod Taylor’s knee seems to make it likely that Nathan Peterman will get a second start this week. I’m not sure it’s possible for Peterman to have a worse game than he did against the Chargers in week eleven but if he plays it throws real doubt on the Bills ability to win. The Indianapolis Colts come into Buffalo having lost heavily against the Jaguars and don’t have a win since week nine. Until last week they had kept their games close but even though it feels like I should pick the Colts to cover this, I can’t quite make myself do it. I could regret this but the Bills have been good at home and I just don’t trust the Colts.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Bears @ Bengals (-6.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals are coming off a very physical loss to the Steelers on Monday and thanks to injury are thin at both safety and corner on defence as well as at running back. They welcome a Chicago Bears team who may only be 3-9 but who have kept the majority of their games close. The Bengals have seemed to have found some more consistency in recent weeks but whilst I can see them winning this game, I can’t pick them to cover given the injuries and how tough the Bears defence has been playing.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Packers @ Browns (+3.5)

The Cleveland Browns are searching for a win and welcome a Green Bay Packers who will be desperate to keep themselves in with a theoretical shot at the playoffs as Aaron Rodgers recovers from his broken collar bone. This could be the week that the Browns get a win, but the Packers have something to play for and I’m just not sure what will happen. However, with the Browns getting this number of points I’m going to reluctantly pick them to keep the game within four points.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Cowboys @ Giants (+4.5)

The New York Giants might get a lift in the locker room from the firing of a head coach that clearly was not in full control of the locker room, but this doesn’t address the weakness of the roster. They welcome a Dallas Cowboys team who got their offence working a bit better last week and who look to be getting Sean Lee back on defence this week. This is a lot of points to get at home, but it is not enough to tempt me even if the Giants do have a little uptake in performance.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Lions @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

Apart from only having a 4-8 record, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been inconsistent on offence and struggled on defence. They welcome a limping Detroit Lions team who have been inconsistent as well despite being in the top half of the league by overall DVOA. It is hard to have much faith in either team and so I’m going to grab the points for the home underdog given Matthew Stafford’s hand injury.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Raiders @ Chiefs (-3.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs could get back to winning ways, but their defence has really struggled for a while now and they only have one win in seven games. The Oakland Raiders do not exactly inspire confidence either, particularly with a defence that is ranked last in the league by DVOA. Although Arrowhead Stadium is a famously loud place to play, on their recent form I just can’t pick the Chiefs to win by four.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Vikings @ Panthers (+2.5)

This should be an interesting game, but I have a lot more faith in the Minnesota Vikings’ ability to move the ball on the tough Carolina Panthers defence than vice versa. This could be one tough road game too many for the Vikings, but even with the Panthers getting points at home, it’s not quite enough to sway me from backing what could well be the best team in the league, even if the DVOA rankings do only have the Vikings listed as sixth.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

49ers @ Texans (-2.5)

The San Francisco 49ers are coming off a narrow win over the Bears in Jimmy Guroppolo’s first start and look to have found their franchise quarterback. However, as good as he looked, he didn’t get into the end zone against the Bears and this week they are on the road again facing the wounded Houston Texans team. The Texans have struggled ever since Deshaun Watson went down, and have lost two straight coming into this game. On paper the Texans should have enough to beat the 49ers, and whilst I do wonder what lift Guroppolo will give the 49ers it is just too early for me to back them in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Jets @ Broncos (+0.5)

The Denver Broncos have now lost eight straight games and with the issues at quarterback it is hard to see things improving drastically until the offseason. This week they face a scrappy New York Jets team who are very evenly ranked across all three phases of the game by DVOA. Even though only one of their five wins has come on the road, it is hard to look past the Jets given that the Broncos offence ranks dead last by DVOA and whilst the Broncos obviously could win, I can’t pick that to happen.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Titans @ Cardinals (+2.5)

The Arizona Cardinals have stayed competitive despite the injuries they have suffered on offence, but with Adrian Peterson still injured and looking to be out for this game it is hard to see things improving for them. They welcome a Tennessee Titans team that have ground out an 8-4 record despite being ranked twentieth overall by DVOA. I don’t think this game will set many pulses raising outside of the Cardinals and Titans’ fan bases, but I expect the Titans to keep the momentum they have gathered rolling.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Washington @ Chargers (-6.5)

The line of this game does give me pause, but the LA Chargers are on a three game win streak and really seem to have found their formula now. They welcome a very injured Washington team who are a tough out but there is only so much Kirk Cousins can do behind their current offensive line. The lack of home field advantage the Chargers have since their move to LA does concern me, but their excellent pass rush will likely be terrifying to face for Washington. I do see the Chargers winning but I’m just not convinced they will win by seven yet in the end that is what I am nervously going to pick.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Eagles @ Rams (-2.5)

This is another huge game as the LA Rams welcome the Philadelphia Eagles. The LA Rams come into this game on a two game winning streak and will be hoping to stop the Eagles bouncing back from their loss to the Seahawks last week. In a game that pits the top two teams in the league by DVOA against each other I am going to grab the points and enjoy what should be a cracking game.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Seahawks @ Jaguars (-2.5)

The Seattle Seahawks got an excellent win last week, but whilst their defence proved it can hold up despite the injuries to Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor and should be fine against the Jaguars one dimensional offence, their offence could really struggle the Jacksonville Jaguars’ second ranked by DVOA defence. In particular the scary Jaguars pass rush could have a field day against the Seahawks suspect offensive line. I’m not saying the Seahawks can’t win, particularly after last week, but on the road I’m not sure I can pick it to happen.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Ravens @ Steelers (-5.5)

I am sure the Pittsburgh Steelers come into this game with Ryan Shazier very much on their minds, and there will be players paying tribute to the injured linebacker with their cleats in this game. The Baltimore Ravens lead the league in defence and special teams by DVOA and are grinding their way through the season. The play of Ben Roethlisberger is noticeably better at home than it is on the road, and having beaten the Ravens on the road by seventeen, I think the Steelers could cover this line. They showed the mental toughness to come back and win last week after being down 17-0 in the second quarter, but after such a physical game I do wonder if there will be a let-down this week, yet in the end I’m going to back the Steelers to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Patriots @ Dolphins (+11.5)

The Miami Dolphins have often played the New England Patriots tough at home, but give the way their season has gone and their recent performances, I just can’t pick them to do it again. I’m sure Dan will be very happy for me to be proved wrong, but in front of the nation I think the Patriots will be too focussed to let the Dolphins have a sniff in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Vikings @ Flacons (-2.5)

The Atlanta Falcons have really come on in recent weeks and have almost quietly got themselves to a 7-4 record. Meanwhile the Minnesota Vikings have been playing really well all season and this should be a great game. I’m going to grab the points in a game I can see the Vikings winning despite being on the road but it is not exactly hard to see the Falcons winning.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Patriots @ Bills (+8.5)

This is a tricky game to pick as the New England Patriots keep covering huge lines but the Buffalo Bills got their season back on track last week as they ground out a win against the Chiefs. However the Chiefs have been stuttering for weeks now, whilst the Patriots have rounded into form on defence and Tom Brady has been carrying them all season. It’s not that the Bills stand no chance of covering this line but I’m not going to pick it as the most likely result.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

49ers @ Bears (-3.5)

The Chicago Bears lost heavily to the Eagles last week and only have two more wins than the 49ers. The San Francisco 49ers are starting Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback for the first time and a lot of people are excited about this given how he looked in four plays last week. I’m not sure if this is going to launch a huge turnaround given the quantity of injuries the 49ers have suffered, but I don’t trust the Bears to win by four or more so I’m backing the 49ers to at least keep it close.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

Broncos @ Dolphins (-0.5)

This is a horrible game to pick as neither the Miami Dolphins nor the Denver Broncos inspire confidence. Both teams have problems at quarterback and the Dolphins are stuck at the bottom of the league according to overall DVOA. I have more faith in Adam Gase as a head coach than Vance Joseph at the moment and with the Dolphins playing at home I am going to pick them but you would avoid picking this game if you could.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Lions @ Ravens (-2.5)

The Baltimore Ravens have got themselves to 6-5 thanks to a defence and special teams unit that both lead the league in DVOA and have overcome an anaemic offence. This week they welcome a Detroit Lions team that play tough but have struggled to win consistently. This is one of those games where I find it hard to have a firm opinion on what will happen, but I know what I am getting from the Ravens’ number one by DVOA units and so despite the poor offence, I’m backing the Ravens to grind it out in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Buccaneers @ Packers (-2.5)

The Green Bay Packers have been struggling with Brett Hundley as their quarterback, which is understandable but his up and down play makes them a hard team to predict. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have not looked like the team many were expecting coming into the season and I’m not sure Jameis Winston being cleared to play clarifies the situation any. I have very little faith in either team so I am going to grab the points but I don’t feel good about it.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Texans @ Titans (-6.5)

The Houston Texans have managed a win since rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson went down for the season with his knee injury, but this combined with losing JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus from the defence of the Texans ha really hampered them. The Tennessee Titans might not have caught the eye with their play, but they are joint top of the AFC South. I backed the Titans last week and they only just covered against the Colts so this line worries me but in the end I’m going to back the healthier team who still have something to play for.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Colts @ Jaguars (-9.5)

So head coach Doug Marone came out last week and said he got greedy at the end of the game that saw the Jacksonville Jaguars lose to the Cardinals. This week they welcome the Indianapolis Colts who are really struggling and on the road I can’t see them beating the Jaguars. My concern though is whether the Jaguars can cover this big a line but having beaten the Colts 27-0 in Indianapolis, I’m going to back them to win big in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Chiefs @ Jets (+3.5)

Since starting the season 5-0 the Kansas City Chiefs have really struggled and having lost to the Bills last week they travel to New York to face the Jets. The Jets have struggled in the last five games, only winning one of them so it is hard to know what will happen in this game. I am really tempted by getting the points at home and given these teams respective form that is what I am going to pick but who knows what will actually happen in the game.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Browns @ Chargers (-13.5)

It seems strange for the LA Chargers to be getting this many points, particularly given that they don’t have much of a home advantage, but the Cleveland Browns are winless for a reason and haven’t even kept a game to a single digit loss since week seven. Perhaps the addition of Josh Gordon will give them a spark on offence, but the Chargers have played well in the last couple of weeks and with the extra rest coming of their Thanksgiving victory over the Cowboys I’m backing them to win. Can they cover this line? In a case of the Browns being bad vs my rule on double digit spreads I’m falling on side of not trusting the Browns. I could regret this.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Giants @ Raiders (-6.5)

I see very little in the Oakland Raiders that excites me, particularly given the injury to Amari Cooper which when combined with the suspension of Michael Crabtree means that Derek Carr has lost both his starting receivers. However, with the New York Giants benching Eli Manning for Geno Smith, I don’t exactly have a lot of faith in the Giants either. In the end I am going to back the Raiders going against a team flying across the country who have just sat their two time Super Bowl winning quarterback. Even if Eli Manning has not been playing well, it doesn’t feel like the situation was handled well and I can’t trust the Giants after this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Rams @ Cardinals (+6.5)

Who would have thought before the season that the LA Rams would be giving six and a half points to any team on the road, but they have been truly transformed and with their win against the Saints last week the Rams got back to winning ways. I expect them to have too much for the Arizona Cardinals who are down to their third string quarterback but have been competitive thanks to a top ten defence by DVOA, yet I can’t see them keeping up with the Rams.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Panthers @ Saints (-3.5)

The New Orleans Saints couldn’t win on the road last week without two corners and pass rusher Alex Okafor lost for the season. However, this week they are at home facing a Carolina Panthers team who have been very up and down on offence but whose defence has played really well. This should be one of the more interesting games of the season, but in the end I think the Saints will run out winners thanks to their balance on offence and defence.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Eagles @ Seahawks (+5.5)

I’m not sure I remember a time when the Seattle Seahawks were getting this many points at home, but they face an uphill struggle going against the Philadelphia Eagles without so many members of the Legion of Boon. Not only are Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor gone for the season, but the Seattle offensive line is facing a fearsome pass rush and whilst Russell Wilson is a magician, there are limits to what he can do. I expect this to be a fascinating game, and may well be closer on the field than the scoreboard suggests, but I expect the Eagles good form to continue.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Steelers @ Bengals (+6.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals are coming off two straight wins and really have to win this game if they are to maintain their slim hopes of the playoffs. The problem is that whilst the Pittsburgh Steelers have played down to the level of their opposition multiple times, they are still 9-2 and I expect them to win this one. That said, getting this many points at home in a game that is often close I am going to back to the Bengals to cover and hope for a win. I do expect to be disappointed come Tuesday morning though.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Sometimes working in IT involves out of hours work even if you’re not supposed to be on support so here’s some hurried picks and hopefully normal services resume next week.

Buccaneers @ Falcons (-8.5)

I think the Atlanta Falcons are the better team and should win this game but I’m not nine points convinced.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Bills @ Chiefs (-9.5)

The line worries me as the Kansas City Chiefs have been off in recent weeks but the Buffalo Bills have had no run defence since trading Marcell Darius.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Bears @ Eagles (-13.5)

This is a huge line but the Chicago Bears are on the road and Philadelphia Eagles have run up big wins against a number of teams and I don’t see that stopping this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Browns @ Bengals (-8.5)

I don’t exactly trust the Cincinnati Bengals to cover this line, but having been bitten by the Cleveland Browns two weeks in a row, they are going to have to prove to me they can cover a line before I pick them again.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Titans @ Colts (+3.5)

The Tennessee Titans have not exactly been convincing in recent weeks, whilst the Indianapolis Colts have been competitive in their last three games despite what I said on the podcast, but in the end the Titans are just going to have too much.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Dolphins @ Patriots (-16.5)

This line is enormous and the Miami Dolphins are undeniably bad, but as good as the New England Patriots are I can’t just pick them to cover this.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Panthers @ Jets (+4.5)

The Carolina Panthers are playing so much better now Cam Newton is running more and the New York Jets have struggled in recent weeks.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Seahawks @ 49ers (+6.5)

I am tempted by the points given the injuries to the Seattle Seahawk’s defence, but in the end the San Francisco 49ers are just too injured and I think the Seahawks have enough to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Broncos @ Raiders (-5.5)

The Denver Broncos have been undeniably bad, but I’m just not prepared to back the Oakland Raiders to win by six given the way they have been playing recently.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Saints @ Rams (-2.5)

This is a hard one to pick given the LA Rams loss last week, but the New Orleans Saints have picked up some knocks on defence. In the end I’m going to grab the points and look forward to the game.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Jaguars @ Cardinals (+4.5)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have won four straight and I would say they are the better team so despite the points I am backing them to cover against the Arizona Cardinals.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Packers @ Steelers (-13.5)

With all the injuries to the Green Bay Packers and the Pittsburgh Steelers finding their offence last week I can only pick one way despite the line.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Texans @ Ravens (-6.5)

The Baltimore Ravens defence is undeniably good, and their three shut outs have persuaded me that against the Houston Texans they can cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Lions @ Bears (+3.5)

The Chicago Bears lost at home against the Packers, which is pretty worrying with the Detroit Lions coming to visit. The Lions are not quite right on offence, which will happen when you have the thirtieth ranked offence by DVOA and they are going against a pretty tough Chicago defence. I am struggling a little with this game as I think the Lions are more likely to win but I’m just not sure about the points. In the end I’m taking the Bears to bounce back in this home divisional game and keep it close getting points.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Jaguars @ Browns (+7.5)

This is a surprisingly interesting game in that I’m not sure how many games in a row I trust the Jacksonville Jaguars to win and the one thing that is truly good about the Cleveland Browns is their rush defence, which is ranked second in the league by DVOA. I’m not saying the Browns are suddenly going to win this game, but with their strength going up against a Jaguars offence predicated on the run I think they may be able to keep this game closer than eight points.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Ravens @ Packers (+2.5)

The Green Bay Packers are coming off their first win with Brett Hundley starting as quarterback who demonstrated a little bit more last week as the Packers found ways to get their offence going again. He faces a stern test when facing the Baltimore Ravens’ defence who rank third in the league in pass defence. The Ravens’ issue is that their offence has been pretty woeful this season and so this could be a tight game. This is one of those lines I really don’t like, but I’m going to grab the home underdog as they have been pretty good to me this season.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Chiefs @ Giants (+10.5)

The New York Giants are winless at home and have only kept one game close than eleven so it doesn’t feel like a team coming of a ten point loss to the lowly 49ers has much chance in this game. The things that worries me about this line is that although Andy Reid is really good coming off a bye and the Kansas City Chiefs have more than enough offence to win this game, their defence is ranked twenty-sixth in the league by DVOA and they haven’t won a game by eleven points or more since week three. I can’t quite believe I’m doing this but give me the Giants getting ten and a half points at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Rams @ Vikings (-2.5)

This looks to be game of the week, with a matchup of the high flying LA Rams offence going against the Minnesota Vikings’ tough defence particularly catching the eye. I don’t have a strong feeling either way but the Vikings have a loud crowd in their new stadium and so I’m leaning in their direction but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Rams proved me wrong.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Washington @ Saints (-7.5)

The New Orleans Saints’ turnaround is great to see, but I’m not sure anyone was predicting that their defence and run game would be leading the way. They face a Washington team who are scrapping away despite the injuries and the fact that their passing game is ranked eleventh in the league by DVOA despite the offseason overhaul at receiver is testament to Kirk Cousins’ ability as a quarterback. However, I don’t think it will be enough against the Saint’s team at home and so ‘m backing the Saints to win big.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Cardinals @ Texans (+1.5)

This is a tricky game to pick with the Houston Texans’ season derailed by injuries and the Arizona Cardinals are coming to town starting their third string quarterback. The Cardinals have had a long week to recover after narrowly losing last week’s Thursday night game and Adrian Peterson should look better than he did on three days of rest, but will that be enough for them to win the game. I have more faith in Bruce Arians as a coach, but I’m not sure if that will be enough to see me right in this pick or not.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Buccaneers @ Dolphins (-2.5)

I do not like this game, Gee-I-am. I do not like either team’s game plan. But seriously, the Dolphins are ranked thirty-second by DVOA and are coming off a horrible loss to the Panthers. However, they are favoured in this game because the Buccaneers are not exactly playing well this season either. The Bucs are coming off a narrow win against the New York Jets but their defence has been bad all season and the offence has sputtered. They will be getting receiver Mike Evans back from suspension but it is likely Ryan Fitzpatrick will start as quarterback as Jameis Winston struggles with his shoulder. It feels like the Dolphins are heading in the wrong direction but I have more faith in Adam Gase as a head coach than Dirk Koetter and with the Dolphins at home I’m reluctantly backing them.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Bills @ Chargers (-4.5)

The Buffalo Bills have been struggling in recent weeks and are electing to hand rookie quarterback Nathan Peterman his first start. Doing this on the road might be considered a risk except that the Chargers don’t exactly have much of a home advantage with their current situation in LA. They will be relieved to have Philip Rivers clear concussion protocol but it feels like they specialise in close losses. The Chargers do not have the run game to take advantage of the Bills’ recent defensive problems and basically, I don’t trust them to get out of their own way. I don’t like taking a rookie QB on the road but apparently that’s what I’m going to do.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Bengals @ Broncos (-2.5)

This game pits two misfiring franchises against each other. The Denver Broncos have serious problems on offence without a settled quarterback and a three back rotation that isn’t helping their running game. Even their vaunted defence has slipped and doesn’t look like the dominant unit of recent seasons. They welcome a Cincinnati Bengals team whose defence is playing pretty tough but who are hamstrung by offensive problems that stem from the o-line. I think this could be a very ugly game and I’m not really sure who is going to win so I’ll try a little faith in my team who have at least been competitive in recent weeks.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Patriots @ Raiders (+6.5)

The Oakland Raiders are the hosts for this game but it is being played in Mexico City. The New England Patriots have stayed out in Denver to prepare for the altitude of Mexico City having beaten the Broncos heavily last week. This is a game that pits highly ranked offences against lowly ranked defences but I have a lot more faith in the Patriots than the Raiders and fancy them to run out easy winners in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Eagles @ Cowboys (+3.5)

The Dallas Cowboy will not have Ezekiel Elliott for the next five weeks as he dropped his legal fight against his suspension, much like the Cowboys dropped their commitment to the running game last week. They also gave up six sacks to one player and tackle Tyron Smith is likely out again this week with his groin issue as well as losing linebacker Sean Lee to a hamstring problem. The Philadelphia Eagles are not a team that you want to be facing with questions about your offensive line and Sean Lee has a huge effect on how the Cowboys defence plays so I expect the team with the best record in the league to run out easy winners in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Falcons @ Seahawks (-3.5)

The Atlanta Falcons got a win in Dallas last week and now travel to face a banged up Seahawks team in Seattle. The Seahawks are likely to be without two thirds of the Legion of Boom as well as Cliff Avril and whilst I would expect them to be competitive against the Falcons, in fact they could very easily win, I’m just not confident enough to back them to win by four. The Falcons may be struggling on offence but I hope they have enough in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Saints @ Bills (+2.5)

The New Orleans Saints are on a great run having won six straight games. They have integrated a number of young players into their defence and now look like they could be one of the teams to watch in the NFC. This week they are traveling to face a Bills team who are unbeaten at home in Buffalo. The Bills may have lost against the Jets last week but they have extra rest and are going against a rush defence that is only ranked twenty-eight in the leave by DVOA. I am going back and forth on this one a lot as I like getting points at home and the Saints can’t keep winning all of their games but I can’t quite pick the Bills in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Packers @ Bears (-4.5)

The Green Bay Packers have lost by nine and thirteen points since Aaron Rodgers broke his collar bone and this week they travel to face the Chicago Bears who are coming of their bye week. The Bears’ offence is ranked thirty-first in the league but their defence is pretty stout and should have more than enough to contain a struggling Brett Hundley. I think the Bears should win this one, but giving away four and a half points worries me, in the end I’m going to back the Bears but I don’t feel that confident about it.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

Bengals @ Titans (-5.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals travel to Tennessee to face the Titans and I do not expect them to win given how the season has gone and the Bengals’ continued offensive problems thanks to a shaky offensive line. The Titans have not exactly been dominant, but they have been grinding out wins. Last week’s matchup was particularly poor for the Bengals but since Bill Lazor become offensive coordinator they have kept most of their other games close or won and so I’m backing them to stay within six points in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Browns @ Lions (-11.5)

The Cleveland Browns may not have any wins, but they have kept half of their games to only three point deficits. This week they face the Detroit Lions on the road who have a tough defence and an offence that ranks twentieth by DVOA despite Matt Stafford playing well. I’m not putting any faith in the every other week pattern that suggests this will be the fifth game the Browns lose by three points, but I do just fancy them to keep this game closer than twelve points. I need to remember my rule that I need a very good reason to back a team giving double digit points and whilst it would not surprise me if the Lions manage to cover this line, I feel like it is more likely they won’t.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Steelers @ Colts (+9.5)

Ranked top ten by DVOA in defence and offence the Pittsburgh Steelers are a fearsome opponent for anybody, let alone a 3-6 Indianapolis Colts team who have given up on having their franchise quarterback play this season. Still, the Steelers don’t always bring their A game on the road against teams they should beat and the Colts have been competitive in the last couple of weeks. I’m not exactly confident with this one but I am going to back the Colts to keep this one within ten points at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Vikings @ Washington (+1.5)

Washington showed some real grit to win last week in Seattle but poor kicking from the Seahawk’s Blair Walsh contributed to their win. This week they host a Minnesota Vikings team coming of a bye who have played well despite a fluid situation at quarterback where Teddy Bridgewater has returned to the active roster as week one starter Sam Bradford was placed on injured reserve thanks to a knee injury that has prevented him from playing another game. Still Case Keenum has done an admirable job of filling in and is the starter for this game. This won’t be an easy game as Washington have kept grinding, but in a battle of ex-Bengals co-ordinators I expect Mike Zimmer and the Vikings to win out.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Jets @ Buccaneers (+2.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are really struggling this year and this week with Mike Evans suspended and Jameis Winston sat through injury, their offence faces an even bigger challenge in overcoming a defence that is ranked thirtieth in the league by DVOA. The New York Jets are coming of a Thursday night win against the Bills and are worthy favourites in this game. I think Todd Bowles has done an excellent coaching job given the overhaul of the roster in the offseason and I expect the Jets to win out in this one despite only being ranked one place better by overall DVOA.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Chargers @ Jaguars (-4.5)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have the number one ranked defence in the league by DVOA and get to pit their rushing attack against the visiting LA Chargers twenty-sixth ranked rush defence. They will welcome the return of rookie running back Leonard Fournette and will be hoping he has a point to prove having been sat last week for discipline reasons. The Chargers’ three wins have all come against teams who currently have losing records and it feels like they could struggle against the Jaguars who will be hoping to establish some consistency having now won two in a row. The points line worries me but I like the matchup and so I am going to pick the Jaguars to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Texans @ Rams (-11.5)

The LA Rams are one of the surprise teams of the season and come into this game have scored fifty against the Giants last week. In fact the Rams have three thirty point plus margin wins and welcome a Houston Texans team who have hope for next season but are pretty much done for this year thanks to injury. The Rams are ranked as the best team in the league by DVOA and are impressive enough that I am going to pick them to cover this line at home, which is probably a massive jink so sorry to any fans of the Rams that are reading this.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Cowboys @ Falcons (-2.5)

The Atlanta Falcons welcome the Dallas Cowboys who are about to find out what life is like without Ezekiel Elliott as he finally starts his six game suspension. However, Dallas still look pretty strong whilst the Falcons have struggled this year and with the Falcons defence only ranked twenty-ninth I fancy the Cowboys to cover this if not win despite missing their start running back.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Giants @ 49ers (+0.5)

This pick’em game is difficult to call with the 1-7 New York Giants coming of a heavy loss to the LA Rams travelling across country to play the 0-9 San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers have picked up a lot of injuries in the last two weeks but the Giants don’t exactly inspire confidence. I’m going to pick the 49ers as the home team who will be desperate to get a win but this is definitely a game to stay away from picking if you can.

Gee’s Pick:          49rtd
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Patriots @ Broncos (+7.5)

The Denver Broncos gave up fifty points last week and look to be in real trouble. They have struggled to move the ball and have lost by at least ten points in the last four games. Denver has been historically a difficult place to play and Brow Osweiler has actually beaten the New England Patriots before, but even with a thirty-first ranked defence by DVOA the Patriots are 6-2 and seem to be rounding into form. I’m a little hesitant to predict this, but looking at the trends in scores I’m going to nervously back the Patriots to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Dolphins @ Panthers (-9.5)

The Miami Dolphins are ranked thirty-first by DVOA and have had their offence shut-out twice this year but have still managed to get to 4-4 and narrowly lost against the Raiders last week. The problem is this week they travel to face a Carolina Panthers team who have reverted to running Cam Newton and so may have found a formula to stabilise their offence. Certainly it will be hard for the Dolphins to move the ball on the Panthers defence and I would be surprised if they won the game. However, there were some good things in last week’s loss and I’m not so confident in the Panthers that I can predict them to win by ten points.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins