Category Archives: Picks Competition

Competition Saturday: 2019 Week 16

21 Saturday Dec 2019

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I don’t know if a different schedule will change things, but to overturn the deficit, I needed to make up some ground last week and instead I have fallen further back after both Dan and his Dad had solid ten point weeks and I very much didn’t. I’m still above .500 but it certainly doesn’t look the blog will be returning to black and orange in the new year.

Dan’s Dad: Week 15:   10-6 Overall:   129-95
Dan: Week 15:   10-6 Overall:   121-103
Gee: Week 15:   7-9 Overall:   116-108

Texans @ Buccaneers (+2.5)

The Houston Texans are in pole position to with the AFC South having beaten the Texans last week, but they can’t afford to slip up on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have kind of quietly won their last games. You still would want Jameis Winston to tame the turnovers but he has already thrown for over four and half thousand yards and could well top five thousand by the end of the season. This is the start of a strong Saturday schedule, and I am really tempted by the home points but the Buccaneers have now lost both Evans and now Godwin at receiver and with Will Fuller back for the Texans I’m going to back them in this one.

Gee’s Pick:     Texans
Dan’s Pick:     Texans

Bills @ Patriots (-6.5)

The Buffalo Bills are one game behind the New England Patriots in the AFC East and having secured a playoff place they will be looking to win the division for the first time since 1995. It’s still a big as ask but this is also a big line and whilst it seems unlikely the Bills can win the division and it is tough to win at Gillette Stadium but I do see the Bills being competitive after the Patriots struggles continued last week and so I’m going to back the Bills to keep the game within a touchdown.

Gee’s Pick:     Bills
Dan’s Pick:     Bills

Rams @ 49ers (-6.5)

The LA Rams were badly beaten by the Cowboys last week and so their chances of making the playoffs seems pretty low. They face a motivated San Francisco 49ers team who are being pushed by the Seahawks and if the Rams offence struggled against the Cowboys pass rush, I can really see them struggling against the 49ers’ second rank defence by DVOA and in particular their fearsome defensive line. Their earlier game ended in a 7-20 loss for the Rams but the injury to the 49ers have lost their starting centre so I am trying to weigh this up in a must win game for both teams. Given this is a crucial divisional game for both teams I am tempted by the points but changing my mind almost always leads to wrong picks so 49ers it is.

Gee’s Pick:     49ers
Dan’s Pick:     49ers

Week 9 Trivia

‘There are just 2 weeks to go and the playoff picture took another step to becoming clear this week.

There are two storms gathering this weekend. The first is the Bengals visit to Miami. For many it may hardly register but believe me the WhatsApp feed at TWF Towers will be in meltdown. The season has not been kind to either team and this is an opportunity to secure bragging rights.

The Picks started with a mixed bag in which Gee took the chance to make an early start to the week as Dan and I took the now seemingly odd decision to pick The Jets over Baltimore. I think the big spread made us a little picker-happy.

However, after Sunday Dan went into Monday a point ahead on the week and with every chance of closing the gap to 6 with 2 weeks to go. Both he and Gee went Colts but the old fella ignored the spread in favour of home field to take the point from what was nearly a shut out to maintain my healthier 8 point advantage. Sometimes it’s knowing which factor to follow and often it’s gut feel.

That big event happens on Monday with another Packers Vikings scrap. There have been many over the years, but this has a real significance. The Packers are a game ahead, so a win clinches the division, end of story. However, a Vikings win levels up and it’s off to week 17. But therein lies another challenge. The Vikes host the Bears while the Packers take on the Lions, arguably an easier job. And head over heart I fear we bottle it against the Bears. Oh well, Blessed are the Cheesemakers.

Which brings us to the Trivia where last week I asked:
In how many consecutive seasons did the Jaguars make the playoffs in their first five years in the league?

Clearly the answer lay between 0 and 5 and this time it was 4. The Jaguars made it to the playoffs four out of their first five seasons: 1996-97-98-99. They made it to the Conference Championships twice (1996 and 1999) but lost both times, once to the Patriots 20-6 in 1996, and to the Titans 33-14 in 1999.

I knew this would be a Guess-fest and my previous history of teasing the team would reinforce that. Anyway, with both admitting to being unsure it was Dan who scooped the 2 points and extending his advantage to 3.

For Week 16 I’ve relocated to Kansas City and the question to tax the brain cells while I indulge in some eye-wateringly expensive fun in Dubai is this:

The Kansas City Chiefs were originally known by what name?

Easy right? The names will be familiar but the content, maybe not. We shall see but remember that the Trivia will continue through the Post Season so there is still much at stake and additional questions may appear to spice things up some more.

Have a Cool Yule Y’all!’

Already Thinking of Next Season?

18 Wednesday Dec 2019

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I’m starting this week’s post early as Christmas is already messing with my usual weekly schedule, and it’s still over a week away so let’s see what I can get out written for you and when – the timeline of this week’s post might be a little out of sync.

What I Saw

The final Thursday night football of the 2019 season (which feels like a very odd thing to be writing right now) was a one sided contest where the good home (Baltimore Ravens) beat the poor road team (New York Jets) and covered a fourteen and a half point spread to boot. It was more of the same for the Ravens who continued to sweep away all in their path. I’m thoroughly enjoying watching the Ravens play and the surprising thing about this game was only that they managed to run for over two hundred yards going against the league’s second rated rush defence going into this game by DVOA. I’m curious what happens to the Jets in the off-season as Adam Gase manoeuvred his own person into the GM role, but he has struggled mightily this season whilst his former underachieving quarterback Ryan Tannehil is playing like a man transformed in Tennessee (correct at time of writing, I have not watched the Titans game yet – that’s coming later). Given his win-loss record and that the thing Gase is meant to be is a quarterback whisperer, the performance of this Jets team and Sam Darnold in particular has to lead to some pressure coming Gase’s way as questions need to be asked.

The next game I watched was the Chicago Bears visiting the Green Bay Packers, which was a strange game in that for long periods the Packers defence had control of the Bears offence whilst the Packers offence did enough to eek out a lead. The Packers were able to withstand a fourth quarter comeback as Trubisky found enough success to get to within eight points, but it was too little too late. The funny thing about this game is that for a large stretch of the game the Packers looked better, but the offence still doesn’t look quite right and Aaron Rodgers seems to be having a quiet year, but at 11-3 Packers fans might not be complaining too much until the playoffs. I’m not sure the Packers have what it will take to compete with the elite of the NFC despite their record but that could change rapidly if Rodgers can find some of his previous form and I would be hesitant to bet against that. Meanwhile, the Bears have recovered from some of their problems this season but face some big decisions about Trubisky and the direction of the team in the off-season, which looks like it could start at the end of week seventeen.

One of the games with the most riding on the result in week fifteen was that divisional matchup between the Tennessee Titans and the Houston Texans, where the Texans ran out 24-21 winners but could have won much more convincingly if Deshaun Watson hadn’t throw two interceptions in the endzone. Equally the Titans looked to move the ball more effectively for long stretches of this game and had their own ricochet interception near the Texan’s goal line. The result gives the Texans a big edge in the race for the division and they have the easier game next week as they take on the Buccaneers whilst the Titans have to take on the Saints next week. It may well be that the Titans don’t quite make the playoffs but they look to have found something in Ryan Tannehill and his connection with developing rookie receiver AJ Brown, whilst tight-end Jonnu Smith caught the eye with his speed both catching the ball and rushing for fifty-seven yards from his one snap at running back. The Titans might well be the more consistent team over the last eight weeks, but don’t look to be able to overcome the 2-4 start to make the playoffs, whilst the Texans can compete with anyone when healthy and if they go into the playoffs with receiver Will Fuller healthy then they will be a danger to whoever they face. Their ability to win games whilst being out-gained is what happens when you have a couple of superstar players who can turn a game for you with big moments and receiver DeAndre Hopkins had a huge fourth quarter in this one. I’m sure Bill O’Brien would love his team to play more consistently from week to week, but for a coach whose future is often speculated upon he has gone to the playoffs and won the division in three of his six years and only had one season with a losing record. My worry for this team is the future given the draft picks they have given up this year, but they are a dangerous team that no one will want to face come the playoffs.

The last game I watched was the New England Patriots easy win over the Cincinnati Bengals, which even after we hear more about the dubious taping of the Bengals side-line last week, I’m still not that upset about that and this was pretty much business as usual and no team needs that much of an edge to beat the Bengals at the moment. The Bengals were competitive for the first half and moved the ball okay, but the problems in the red-zone and turnovers once again doomed the Bengals to a loss. This was not helped by Andy Dalton throwing four picks, including a pick-six to Stephon Gilmore who had a second interception and kept Tyler Boyd to three catches for twenty-six yards. The Patriots offence still looked to be struggling, whilst the Bengals ran for one hundred and sixty-four yards against the Patriots defence and outgained the Patriots offence. I still can’t sit here and say the Patriots won’t compete in the playoffs, but it would not exactly be a surprise if this team can’t turn it around in the post-season as there are warning signs. However, we have been here before and having gone to four of the last five Super Bowls and won three of them, I’m not saying the Patriots are out of it until they absolutely are.

What I Heard

There’s been a lot of different topics, including more on the Patriots documentary filming as a section of the film was leaked on Monday.

More interesting to me though, has been the discussion of ex-Packers coach Mike McCarthy who has apparently hired himself a staff to be the thirty-third team in the NFL so he can work the 2019 season. McCarthy has also been investigating analytics and was talking about his staff plan for the football technology team he wants. Obviously press like this doesn’t just happen, and after a year off he will be definitely looking to get back into coaching and is trying to drum interest, but it does sound like a positive thing to hear from a coach who was accused of lacking innovation in the final years of the time with the Packers. Despite the focus on young play callers in recent years, it’s not difficult to see some teams going for either McCarthy or Ron Rivera in a few weeks.

There has also been some discussion about former college coach Urban Meyer as he was seen in a press box at Washington, which has fueled speculation that he might be a target as the new coach for Washington or that the Cowboys might be interested in him should Jason Garrett fail to produce a significant playoff success.

It seems the days of waiting until Black Monday after week seventeen to fire your coach and start the search is well behind us, that allows this kind of speculation to get started well before the season is even done.

What I Think

There were a number of unexpected results over the weekend, which in of itself is not that unusual given the parity of the league and the small sample size, but even so the 49ers losing to the Falcons and the Jaguars beating the Raiders were two results that jumped out to me as well as the Cowboys beating the Rams 44-21.

It feels odd for the final Raiders game in Oakland to be a 16-20 loss to the Jaguars in week fifteen, and a fairly ignominious end for one of the most famous home sections in the league. The moving of franchises always feels alien to me as it is something that happens so rarely in the UK, but with two teams moving to Los Angeles and now the Raiders moving to Las Vegas, there are a lot of franchises in flux at the moment. The Vegas move might well be the most successful in terms of fan support (the Rams are having problems and the Chargers nearly always play to more away fans their tiny temporary stadium), but it still feels sad to be the Black Hole. The Oakland stadium needed renovating or replacing, but you can’t just replace or recreate the Black Hole and there is something inherently sad for those fans even if all things must end.

What I Know

I know that I need a miracle to turn around the picks competition, and that this off-season I really need to find time to go through my spreadsheets from the end of last season, work out my method/formula and combine that with my pick system this season and see if I can come up with a formula to get back into contention next season.

What I Hope

I am actually beginning to embrace the idea of the Bengals selecting Ohio raised Joe Burrow in the draft and seeing if he can turn round the team next season, but a lot of other things also have to improve for us to recover from a woeful 2019 season. Still there’s good football left to enjoy this season so let’s not get ahead of ourselves too much.

2019 Week Fifteen Picks

15 Sunday Dec 2019

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It’s time for a quick run through our week fifteen picks picks, but first there the small matter of our very tight trivia competition.

‘In how many consecutive seasons did the Jaguars make the playoffs in their first five years in the league?’

I’m really not sure about this one, I think I have a vague feeling that after the first year the Jaguars were surprisingly successful for an expansion team, but this is another of those you have to know questions and I don’t. I’m going to go for three seasons as that’s the number that popped into my head first, but I feel like I have a one in four chance of being right and I’m not happy that I’ve plucked the right number out of the air.

‘This is going to be one of those ‘one way or the other’ questions where it’s either more than you might think, or none. I think I’m going to go high, but I don’t think it will have been all five years, so I’ll guess at 4. Complete guess though!’

Bears @ Packers (-4.5)

The Green Bay Packers may have three more wins and be playing at home but I’m not sure there is this much difference between the two teams and so with Mitch Trubisky playing better I am going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Bears
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Patriots @ Bengals (+9.5)

This is a really awkward pick because the New England Patriots are unlikely to lose three games straight, and could well beat the Cincinnati Bengals by ten points or a lot more, plus the number has moved so that this actually offers value to pick the Patriots but the Bengals haven’t lost by more than eight points in four weeks.

Gee’s Pick:        Bengals
Dan’s Pick:        Patriots

Broncos @ Chiefs (-10.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs have not been healthy all year and whilst Patrick Mahomes will play, he suffered a hand injury last week so whilst I like the Chiefs to win the game, going against a Denver Broncos team who are on a two game win streak I am going to back the division rivals to keep the game within eleven points.

Gee’s Pick:        Broncos
Dan’s Pick:        Chiefs

Buccaneers @ Lions (+3.5)

I hate this particular line as we know the Detroit Lions are really struggling, you don’t lose six games in a row if things are going well, but looking at the lines this is an advantageous number to pick the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The issue there is that I have no faith in them given their inconsistencies and so if I do pick them I am beholden to Jameis Winston. If I had the option to, I would run a mile from picking this game, but I don’t so I guess I have to pick the Bucs…

Gee’s Pick:        Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:        Buccaneers

Texans @ Titans (-2.5)

Both the Tennessee Titans and the Houston Texans have an 8-5 record so this is the first of a huge pair of games between these two teams that could well decide the fate of the AFC South. The Texans have been up and down this season, as they have been for most of head coach Bill O’Brien’s tenure, whilst the Titans have won four straight and are one of the form teams of the NFL at the moment. I’m going take the team I think have been consistently better.

Gee’s Pick:        Titans
Dan’s Pick:        Titans

Dolphins @ Giants (-3.5)

The New York Giants come into this game as slight favourites, which is surprising given that they have lost nine straight games, although they did take the Eagles into overtime last week. However, they are welcoming the Miami Dolphins who only have one more win and are a lot worse by DVOA, but I think if you ask anyone following the league you would rather be in the Dolphins situation than the Giants. The Dolphins are not built for winning this season but Brian Flores looks like the real deal as a coach and so that sways me in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Giants

Eagles @ Washington (+5.5)

This is a strange game where thanks to the long-standing problems of the franchise in the nation’s capital, it is likely that there will be more Philadelphia Eagles fans in the crowd than home fans. It does seem that Washington has stabilised under Bill Callahan, but this doesn’t mean that they are a good team. However, neither are the Eagles, who through injury and loss of coaching staff look a pale imitation of the team that won a Super Bowl two seasons ago. This seems a lot of points to be laying on the road for a team who needed overtime to beat the Giants last week, but Washington have picked up some injuries as well as lacking roster talent. The numbers say take the Eagles so that’s what I’m gong to do, but I really don’t want to.

Gee’s Pick:        Eagles
Dan’s Pick:        Washington

Seahawks @ Panthers (+5.5)

Teams who fire their coach often get a bounce, but this very much did not happen last week for the Carolina Panthers who clearly held Ron Rivera in high regard. This week they welcome a Seattle Seahawks team who got beat badly by the Rams last week. I’m concerned about this number of points but I think the Seahawks are in a much better place right now and will be looking to make amends for last week’s showing.

Gee’s Pick:        Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

Browns @ Cardinals (+2.5)

I don’t want to pick the Cleveland Browns laying points on the road, but I think I am going to have to as the Arizona Cardinals have fallen from a promising 3-3-1 to 3-9-1, although they have faced a lot of good teams. That said, the nearest they cam to covering this line was against the Buccaneers and they failed that so I’m going to hold my nose and back the Browns.

Gee’s Pick:        Browns
Dan’s Pick:        Browns

Jaguars @ Raiders (-6.5)

I hate this line, I have no faith at all in either team right now, but whilst this is a lot of points for a team like the Oakland Raiders to be laying, the Jacksonville Jaguars have lost five straight by seventeen or more points and so in the end there’s only one team I can bring myself to pick.

Gee’s Pick:        Raiders
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Vikings @ Chargers (+2.5)

The LA Chargers are the eighteenth ranked team by DVOA and the Minnesota Vikings are the seventh ranked team. The LA Chargers have very little home field advantage and Philip Rivers has not been playing well. The Vikings may have lost four games, and should still install more confidence but something about Kirk Cousins makes you worry but with the Vikings only need to win by a field goal I’m going to go with who I think is the better team.

Gee’s Pick:        Vikings
Dan’s Pick:        Vikings

Falcons @ 49ers (-10.5)

I hate this line as the San Francisco 49ers have proved themselves to be one of the best teams in the NFL and are coming off an amazing win away at the Saints. They have also just lost their starting centre for the season and I wonder if this is too many points. The problem is that the Atlanta Falcons are not a good team, but have won three out of their last five games. This is the first non-divisional game they have played since their bye week, which only makes that last period harder to evaluate. I’m not as convinced of the gap between these two teams as I was between the Ravens and Jets and having got away with one enormous points cover I’m not going to tempt fate again, although I can absolutely see the 49ers proving me wrong.

Gee’s Pick:        Falcons
Dan’s Pick:        Falcons

Rams @ Cowboys (-1.5)

The Dallas Cowboys are not a good football team right now, but they only have to be better than the Eagles to make the playoffs. I’m not sure the Rams are going to make the playoffs despite having a better record, but they seem to have found something in the last few weeks and so with a line as close as this I’m going to back the better coach.

Gee’s Pick:        Rams
Dan’s Pick:        Cowboys

Bills @ Steelers (-2.5)

This could be an ugly game to watch as both teams have strong defences and limited offences, but I respect both coaches and this should be a truly competitive game. I’m seeing this line as getting an extra point and a half and so for that reason alone I’m going to back the Bills but Mike Tomlin has done an excellent job with his team and it would not surprise me at all if the Steelers actually won.

Gee’s Pick:        Bills
Dan’s Pick:        Bills

Colts @ Saints (-9.5)

The line I am seeing online has actually come down a little, and so by my process that should mean backing the Indianapolis Colts, but I am really not sure about that. Given the retirement of Andrew Luck the Colts have been impressively competitive thanks to a well-constructed roster but the only game they have won in the last six weeks was against the Jaguars as key injuries are hampering them as well as kicking woes. On the other hand, the New Orleans Saints are definitely a good team as their 10-3 record clearly demonstrates, but the points worry me. The Saints scored a lot against the 49ers last week but also gave up a lot and so I don’t know if they can beat this line. I’m going to reluctantly take the points, but I don’t feel great about it.

Gee’s Pick:        Colts
Dan’s Pick:        Colts

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2019 Week 15

12 Thursday Dec 2019

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So I had a better week, but I’m still rooted to the bottom of the table whilst 3D extended his lead, but as he’s in the 99th percentile in the ESPN game perhaps I shouldn’t be too upset to be trailing, but I’m going to keep fighting with three weeks left.

Dan’s Dad: Week 14:   12-4 Overall:   119-89
Dan: Week 14:   9-7 Overall:   111-97
Gee: Week 14:   9-7 Overall:   109-99

Jets @ Ravens (-14.5)

I’ve been on the road, come home and voted but running all kinds of late so I’m going to keep this short and sweet. The Ravens are a good team, the Jets are not. I’m seeing the Jets getting even more points than this online and so I’m picking the good team even if Lamar Jackson is on the injury report as what I’m seeing points to it not being a big deal. Fingers crossed tonight for more than one reason.

Gee’s Pick:     Ravens
Dan’s Pick:     Jets

Week 9 Trivia

‘Week 14 is consigned to the archive and we stand ready for the final 3 weeks of the regular season and the maelstrom of the play-offs and Super Bowl. There is still, though, a lot to be decided in the coming weeks as only 3 teams have actually clinched anything.

The Picks returned a healthy 3 points between us ,which is above average despite there being some challenging spreads which caught us out. Interestingly our aversion to getting Thursday right has returned and a similar issue blights the Monday games also. There isn’t a modest way to report the scores this week as while Dan and Gee brought back a creditable 9 each my streak of good form continued with 12 to give me an 8 point advantage.  I don’t share the view that it’s all over as I’ve seen/had some calamitous collapses and 3 games can see a big swing.

The trivia though is most definitely wide open with just a point between the brains trust so the remaining games offer many potential twists and turns. This week I asked

Prior to moving to Indianapolis in 1984, what city did the Colts call home?

The answer which both of them aced was, of course Baltimore. 

Well there has to be the odd easy question. This week, however, who knows?

For Week 15 we find ourselves in Jacksonville and what I’d like to ask is:

In how many consecutive seasons did the Jaguars make the playoffs in their first five years in the league?

Next weeks report may be a little shorter than usual as having set the Jaguars question I should probably leave the country for a while and writing by a pool in Dubai is tough. Still someone had to do it!’

2109 Week Fourteen Picks

08 Sunday Dec 2019

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I am still annoyed about Thursday Night’s pick because if Dan and I have learnt anything about picking games in the last five years, it is that your first instinct is always better than changing your mind. Now, that is totally un-scientific and could even be wrong and some kind of confirmation bias, but it is yet another thing to account for when picking games. Yes we’re getting to the end of the regular season and yes, I am pretty competitive so first the trivia question and then the picks as I’m running out of time to catch up.

‘Prior to moving to Indianapolis in 1984, what city did the Colts call home?’

I know this one as the Baltimore Colts were famously taken to Indianapolis, but the Colts’ marching band stayed together and played on until the original Cleveland Browns franchise was moved to Baltimore to became the Ravens.

‘Not happy at dropping 2 points last week, and I think Gee will know this one too as it’s quite an easy one. Instantly knew the answer this week – the Colts moved from Baltimore to Indianapolis, and were replaced by the Ravens in the mid 90s and impressively won the super bowl within about 4 or 5 years! I look forward to receiving my bonus points for all of that!’
Panthers @ Falcons (-2.5)

The Carolina Panthers let go of head coach Ron Rivera this week and there is often a new coach bounce, but not as pronounced as in other sports as you can’t overhaul an American football team in the same way you can a football team as to a large extent you are tied to your playbook and personnel. Why do I mention this, because I don’t know what to do with this game. The Atlanta Falcons had a brief two week recovery but have lost two further games to fall to 3-9 but the Panthers’ current four game losing streak that includes last week’s loss to Washington was the last straw for David Tepper and why Rivera list his job. One of these losing streaks is likely to give and the Falcons are actually the better ranked team by DVOA, the points make me nervous but in a divisional game I’m going to reluctantly grab the home team but who knows…

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Falcons
Ravens @ Bills (+5.5)

This is my matchup of the week as the Buffalo Bills and their sixth ranked defence by DVOA welcomes the Baltimore Ravens who currently head up the DVOA rankings and look like the best team in the NFL. I am really looking forward to this game and the Ravens can put up points against anyone but the Bills are 9-3 for a reason and whilst I think the Ravens are more likely to win, I like getting this many points at home as the Bills defence is really good.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Ravens
Bengals @ Browns (-8.5)

I’m not getting carried away by last week’s win for the Cincinnati Bengals, and this week they are on the road taking on the Cleveland Browns, but this is a lot of points for a 5-7 team to be laying when possibly the only thing we know about the Browns is they can’t be trusted. The Browns absolutely have the talent to cover this line and may well do so but I’m not picking it.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals
Broncos @ Texans (-9.5)

The Denver Broncos were a little lucky to beat the Chargers last week and now travel to face the Houston Texans coming off a win against the Patriots. I like the Texans to win this game as they are the better team by eye test and DVOA but this line makes me nervous. The Texans have a top ten offence by DVOA but their defence ranks twenty-fifth, whilst the Broncos have damn near the reverse offensive/defensive rankings and have lost four games by ten points. I’m going to grab the points and hope.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Texans
Lions @ Vikings (-13.5)

The Detroit Lions have lost five straight and may have extra rest having played on Thanksgiving, but a road trip to the Minnesota Vikings is not the kind of game to get right when you’re starting quarterback is still recovering from an injury. This is a lot of points, but the Vikings still have a good home field advantage and even missing Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook hurting his shoulder last week, I’m going to back them in this one and hope I’m not misjudging these teams.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Lions
Washington @ Packers (-12.5)

I imagine this line is based in part on the Green Bay Packers big win against the Giants last week, but whilst the franchise is still a mess, Washington come into this game on a two-game winning streak. I’m not expecting an upset but the Packers have only covered this size line twice this season and I think Washington can keep the game close.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Washington
Colts @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

I hate this line and game from a picks perspective as these two teams are next to each other in the DVOA rankings with the Indianapolis Colts struggling the last few weeks thanks to injury and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers playing inconsistently all season but have won three of their last four games. I don’t have a strong read on this game at all and so I’m going to grab the team I trust a little more, but I have no idea if this is a good idea.

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Colts
Dolphins @ Jets (-5.5)

The New York Jets lost to the Bengals last week and looked bad doing it as the injuries finally became too much. I don’t entirely trust my gut on this, but Brian Flores is definitely a good coach having got three wins with a team that ranks dead last in DVOA and a fair way behind the Bengals in thirty-first place. I think this is too many points for a team who just lost to the Bengals to be laying and so I’m going to pick the Dolphins for another week.

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins
49ers @ Saints (-2.5)

This is a cracking game that pits two of the best NFC teams together and it’s a tricky one to pick as the San Francisco 49ers have won with a ferocious defence and enough offence. The Saints have a really good, well coached team and have the better quarterback but I think the 49ers might be better and getting this many points I’m going to grab them and hope.

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: Saints
Chargers @ Jaguars (+2.5)

I have no idea about this game as the LA Chargers continue to struggle and Philip Rivers look bad, but the Jacksonville Jaguars have no real identity and are going back to rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew as Nick Foles failed to give them a spark after coming back from injury. The Chargers are the experts in close losses and whilst I can definitely see them winning this one, I’m going to grab the home team getting points even if what I want to do is run a mile from picking this game.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Chargers
Titans @ Raiders (+2.5)

I might be overreacting to the two-game losing streak of the Oakland Raiders and the turn around of the Tennessee Titans since putting Ryan Tannehill in the starting lineup, but I think the Titans are the better team. The DVOA rankings agree with me and the this line is more advantageous than the ESPN one so I’m going to go with the Titans. Watch the Raiders win this one now…

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Titans
Chiefs @ Patriots (-3.5)

The New England Patriots were fighting illness as well as playing the Texans last week, but one of the safer picks in the NFL is the Patriots coming off a loss. However, there are real problems with the Pats’ offence so I wonder how the Pats as a team keeps up with a Kansas City Chiefs team that has Patrick Mahomes back from injury and playing well. This could well be a big mistake as the Pats defence is playing really well too, and the Chiefs defence is only ranked fifteenth by DVOA but this is one where I’m going to trust my gut rather than second guess myself and I just hope that betting against Belichick and Brady isn’t going to look too foolish tomorrow.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Patriots
Steelers @ Cardinals (+2.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are winning with tough defence and rookie quarterback Devlin “Duck” Hodges. They travel to face an Arizona Cardinals team who have now lost five straight. I’m not sure if the Steelers can make the playoffs as barring a big fall off from the Bills there looks to be only one wildcard spot left open in the AFC but I think the Steelers believe they can get there and I think despite their offensive struggles they cover this line.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers
Seahawks @ Rams (+1.5)

The LA Rams got back to winning ways last week with a convincing performance against the Arizona Cardinals but I still don’t trust them. The defence may well be third in the league by DVOA, but the problems have not been solved on offence and the Seattle Seahawks have three more wins for a reason. Divisional games can be funny and so I’m not rulling out the Rams cover or win, but I think there is a real gap between these teams and it would take more points than this to make me pick the other way.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks
Giants @ Eagles (-8.5)

This used to be one of the marquee matchups in the NFL, but not this year. It has been a while since the New York Giants were anything but bad, and this week injury has forced them back into starting Eli Manning and whilst he has handled his benching with class, it has been a several seaons since he has been a good quarterback. That said, the Philadelphia Eagles have not been good this season either, but interestingly are ranked tenth by DVOA and so this line is actually causing me problems. I would be surprised if the Giants won, even if the Eagles have lost three straight and we have to go back to week eight for a convincing win for the Eagles. However, whilst the line is big, it is actually a full point less than I’m seeing online and I just can’t trust the Giants.

Gee’s Pick: Eagles
Dan’s Pick: Ealges

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2019 Week Fourteen

05 Thursday Dec 2019

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I kept station with 3D last week, but there’s still seven points between us, although Dan has come back to me a little. It’s not too late to make up the points, but there’s only four weeks to do it so if it is going to turn round it needs to be soon.

Dan’s Dad: Week 13:   10-6 Overall:   107-85
Dan: Week 13:   8-8 Overall:   102-90
Gee: Week 13:   10-6 Overall:   100-92

Cowboys @ Bears (+2.5)

This is a tricky pick for me as the Dallas Cowboys are struggling right now, they have fallen back to 6-6 and are on the road playing in a cold and windy Chicago. The Bears have actually won three of their last four and so have fought back to 6-6, but there is still a 19.3% difference between them in overall DVOA. I like the idea of getting points as the home team on a short week, only both teams have had a full week to prepare after playing on Thanksgiving and this number is actually slightly better for the Cowboys than the consensus number I’m seeing. I don’t like either coach but tracking the ESPN number against a consensus number is working better than me second guessing lines so until I get to do the full spreadsheet I had planned in the off-season (but never quite got to) I’m going to use the number comparison system that has me beat by win percentage so far this season.

Gee’s Pick:     Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:     Cowboys

Week 9 Trivia

‘Timing is, they say, everything and football is no exception, particularly at this point in a season. It’s about now that the playoff picture is becoming clearer and that can change the motivation for each team. Some will be keenly preparing for post-season while others whose ship has sailed will be thinking of rebuilding and positioning themselves for next season. I know which group I’d prefer to be in but as so often is the case for the Vikings high hopes can be dashed at the last moment.

I expected the game at the Seahawks to be close and so it was with the Vikes building a first half lead only to see it more than wiped out in the third quarter. Despite a better forth quarter and it still being in the balance at the 2 minute warning, the timing just wasn’t right and salt was applied to the wound with a late field goal.

The result was that having levelled up with the Packers last week, Minnesota once again fell 1 game behind making the last 4 games crucial, particularly the divisional match ups. But I’ve travelled this path before and my gut feel is that once again the Vikes are looking at a wild card berth – unless the Packers really go off the boil.

What is most definitely bubbling are the trivia quiz and the Picks competition. Gee’s picks came through last week and while Dan picked up the pace again, with just 7 points covering us all this is going to be an interesting home stretch.

For last week’s trivia I asked:

In 2002 The Texans became only the 2nd expansion team to win its inaugural game. Against whom?

Dan spotted the nudge about time zones and went for Tennessee while Gee picked the Cowboys. Both good guesses and earning himself 2 points to leave him just 1 point behind on 13 – 14 is Gee. The Texans ran out winners 19-10 in a Home game at the Reliant Stadium – and if you are interested the first winners of their inaugural game was Minnesota in 1961,

This week the train rolls into Indianapolis and the question is simply:

Prior to moving to Indianapolis in 1984, what city did the Colts call home?

This is getting tight again, but we have several more weeks to go before the Superbowl. Bring it on’

2019 Week Thirteen Picks

01 Sunday Dec 2019

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I am running out of chances to overhaul 3D in the picks competition and Dan in the trivia, and whilst I’m trying to stay true to my processes, I am feeling the pressure as I am competitive and I’d rather not be last in both competitions on my website, but here goes nothing.

‘In 2002 The Texans became only the 2nd expansion team to win its inaugural game. Against whom?

The only clue I will give is to do with matching time zones but I know that won’t help them at all’

I think Dan’s Dad underestimates my US geography, which is not entirely unfair but I have two hunches for teams this could be. The obvious choice is an AFC team and in particular from their division, which to my mind points to the Tennessee Titans who I believe are in the same time zone whilst both the Colts and Jags are in the Eastern time zone. However, I think I know how NFL schedulers work and I’m pretty sure this is right, although Texas is a big state, I’m going to say the Texans kicked off their existence against their in-state Dallas Cowboys. Fingers and toes very much crossed I haven’t out thought myself.

‘Right, it’s process of elimination time! So Houston’s division is made up of them, the titans, the Jags and the Colts, and I’d say there’s most chance that it’s one of those teams who they beat. Of those three, Tennessee is the only one in the same time zone as Houston, so I’ll go with the Titans this week (although it’s entirely possible that he could make the answer Indianapolis so that it ties into next weeks question…!!)’

Jets @ Bengals (+3.5)

I would just like to urgh, as the Bengals are going back to Andy Dalton as Zac Taylor tries to avoid going winless, whilst the New York Jets come to Cincinnati on a three-game winning streak. This may be an extra half point to the Bengals compared to the consensus number I’m seeing, but the Jets have scored thirty-four points for three games in a row (something of a statistical anomaly) whilst the Bengals have a high of twenty-three all season and so even with the return of Dalton I can’t pick them. Prove me wrong Bengals – please!

Gee’s Pick:        Jets
Dan’s Pick:        Jets

Browns @ Steelers (+1.5)

The Cleveland Browns proved me very wrong last week, and rank better by DVOA as well as finding their way on offence and so I should likely pick them, but I find it hard to believe the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to lose twice to the Browns this season in what is likely to be a fervent home atmosphere and I believe Mike Tomlin is the better coach so getting points for home team is something I’m not going to pass up.

Gee’s Pick:        Steelers
Dan’s Pick:        Browns

Packers @ Giants (+6.5)

Any team can have a bad game, but it is unusual to see Aaron Rodgers so subdued so the Green Bay Packers will be looking to get back on track after their bad loss to the 49ers last week. The New York Giants are without a win since week four and could be the perfect team for the Packers to bounce back against. This could be a trap but I’m going to back the Packers to get back to winning ways.

Gee’s Pick:        Packers
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Titans @ Colts (-2.5)

This is a cracking divisional game that sees two teams ranked twelfth and thirteenth in DVOA go against each other, but the Indianapolis Colts are starting to show the strain whilst the Tennessee Titans have won four out of their last five having moved to start Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. I think that the Titans are probably the better team right now and so whilst the Colts only need to win by a field goal to cover, I’m going to grab the Titans.

Gee’s Pick:        Titans
Dan’s Pick:        Colts

Eagles @ Dolphins (+9.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles are really struggling on offence right now, and there are even whisperings around how good Carson Wentz actually is. This is just the kind of game they need to get back to winning ways and thanks to the Cowboys loss on Thanksgiving can get back a share of the NFC East lead. The Miami Dolphins have regressed after winning two games in a row in weeks nine and ten, but I’m willing to have belief in them being competitive for one more week in this kind of game unless they bite me again.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Dolphins

Buccaneers @ Jaguars (-1.5)

What do I do with this game? The Jacksonville Jaguars have not got much of a bump from the return of Nick Foles and look a team in need of a new direction, but the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been the model of inconsistency thanks to Jameis Winston’s ability to make fabulous plays and then promptly give the ball away. I’m going to make a points based play in this one as I’m seeing a consensus of the Jaguars getting two and half point so if I’m getting them for the Buccaneers then that’s where I’m going but I have no confidence at all in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:        Jaguars

Washington @ Panthers (-9.5)

Washington won their second game of the season last week, which is more a testament to the way the Lions are playing at the moment, but this week they travel to face a Carolina Panthers team desperate for a win. After a strong 4-2 start the Panthers have fallen to 5-6 and whilst I can see them getting back to winning ways in this one, this line feels too big for me except I just don’t trust Washington at all. Looking back at Washington’s record they have lost most of their games by ten or more I’m going to grab what is apparently a half point advantage to the consensus but I don’t feel great about it.

Gee’s Pick:        Panthers
Dan’s Pick:        Washington

49ers @ Ravens (-4.5)

This looks to be game of the week to me, and I was slightly surprised to see this line given how well both teams are playing. I can absolutely understand the Baltimore Ravens being favourites but I have been really impressed by the San Francisco 49ers’ defence and having got caught out underestimating the 49ers once I am reluctant to do it again. I can see that the Raven winning big is possible, but this screams tight game to me so I’m going to grab the points and hope that one of my favourite teams in the league right now doesn’t make me look foolish.

Gee’s Pick:        49ers
Dan’s Pick:        Ravens

Rams @ Cardinals (+3.5)

This is an interesting line to me as the LA Rams are really struggling whilst the Arizona Cardinals have been much more competitive than many expected with Kliff Kingsbury adjusting to the league and demonstrating that the combination of his offence and rookie quarterback Kyler Murray have a future in this league. I could be wrong about this, but I like the Cardinals chances and with an extra half point to the consensus line I will take the home team getting points.

Gee’s Pick:        Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:        Rams

Chargers @ Broncos (+2.5)

This game looks to pit two bad divisional rivals against each other and so I don’t have a particularly strong lean either way. I think the Chargers are the better team and DVOA agrees, but only by 4.7% so this feels like a big swing towards the Chargers. That said, this line is a full point lower than the consensus I am seeing so I will lay the points and hope.

Gee’s Pick:        Chargers
Dan’s Pick:        Broncos

Raiders @ Chiefs (-9.5)

If I’ve made several picks based on numbers in the last couple of games, this one I am playing a hunch. This is a huge divisional game with the Oakland Raiders being one game behind the Kansas City Chiefs for the lead of the AFC South. The Chiefs have been struggling for balance on offence a little and their defence is not good against the run. The Raiders have been competitive for a lot of the season and although they lost big in week two against the Chiefs, I don’t like this line so I’m ignoring the extra half point I’m losing to the consensus and taking the Raiders to keep this within ten.

Gee’s Pick:        Raiders
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Patriots @ Texans (+3.5)

This is another interesting game with the Houston Texans hosting the win ugly New England Patriots. The Patriots’ offence may only rank tenth by DVOA, but that’s still better than a lot of people might think given the coverage and their defence is outstanding. This is enough points to make me consider the Texans, in fact it’s half a point more than the three I’m seeing the Texans get in certain places but I have been bitten too many times going against the Patriots who have only failed to cover this number of points once so far this season against the now terrifying Ravens.

Gee’s Pick:        Patriots
Dan’s Pick:        Patriots

Vikings @ Seahawks (-2.5)

The final game of the week is a great looking NFC matchup that sees the Minnesota Vikings take on the Seattle Seahawks. The Vikings are coming off the bye to find themselves level with the Packers, but they face a tough task in beating the Seahawks who haven’t lost since week seven. This is another matchup of teams ranked next to each other by DVOA and should prove a great contest but with apologies to 3D I think I give a slight edge to the Seahawks (despite them being the eight ranked team vs the seventh ranked Vikings) thanks to just how good Russell Wilson is. I have no problem with Mike Zimmer proving me wrong, but I’m going with my gut and a crucial half point line difference.

Gee’s Pick:        Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

2019 Week Twelve Picks

24 Sunday Nov 2019

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I now only have six weeks to make up the deficit and get back into the race for the picks competition, but first there is the minor matter of the trivia competition where once again I am losing…

‘In the 1996 season, quarterback Brett Favre set an NFC record when he threw 39 touchdown passes in regular season play. Who was the previous record holder?’

I love this question, but I don’t just know the answer. However, my informed guess is that this is going to be one of the great pre-Farve passers, but it has to be from a relatively recent season as if you go back to say the seventies the game was just different and the ball simply wasn’t thrown that much. Under these parameters, you might be tempted by either Steve Young or Joe Montana in the eighties, but I am going to plump for the hall of famer who never won the Super Bowl, or even got back there after his second season and so my informed guess would be Dan Marino – possibly in that 1984 season.

‘Tough one this week and it’s going to need some figuring out. I know the record has been broken since then as I believe Mahomes got about 50-odd last year. If Favre broke the record in the 1996 season it’ll have been someone who played before then, so you’ve got people like Dan Marino, Joe Montana, John Elway… I’ll go with Marino this week. If in doubt, stick with the Dolphins! (Make a note of that mantra, kids!)’

Buccaneers @ Falcons (-4.5)

This is a tricky game to pick as the Atlanta Falcons are on a two game win streak since their bye and look a team transformed, but whilst I expect them to win you just never know what you are going to get out of Jameis Winston. There is also the argument that divisional games are funny and this line is a point larger than I’m seeing as the consensus, which all point to me grabbing the points but I have been burnt several times by the Bucs and so I’m not leaning the other way this week.

Gee’s Pick:        Falcons
Dan’s Pick:        Falcons

Broncos @ Bills (-4.5)

The Denver Broncos took a big lead against the Vikings last week and beat the Cleveland Browns in week nine, but they are 3-7 for a reason and rank eighteenth overall by DVOA with only their defence being in the top ten. The reason this game is awkward to pick is that the Buffalo Bills may have the inverse 7-3 record but they actually rank twenty-fifth by DVOA and so whilst I think the Bills will win at home – this feels like a lot of points. However, that was what I said last week before the Bills convincingly beat the Dolphins. Having been proved wrong last week and not trusting the Broncos offence I’m going to take the Bills, but I am not convinced.

Gee’s Pick:        Bills
Dan’s Pick:        Bills

Giants @ Bears (-6.5)

The Chicago Bears are struggling on offence and all the talk at the moment is surrounding the problems that Mitchell Trubisky is having trying to run the offence in his third season. A game where they welcome the lowly New York Giants might be just the tonic they need, and whilst winning the game by a clear touchdown seems like a big ask, in three of their four wins the Bears have done just that whilst the Giants have only managed to win or be within seven four times this season. What does this mean? I don’t know and I am not sure that I actually want to do this, but I am going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Giants
Dan’s Pick:        Giants

Steelers @ Bengals (+6.5)

The Cincinatti Bengals’ defence looked better last week, and the focus on running the ball now they are starting rookie quarterback Ryan Finley has increased the running production but this hasn’t got the Bengals a win. This week the Bengals will host a rested but possibly distracted Pittsburgh Steelers team who will be minus their starting centre after last week’s fight with the Browns. I think this will likely be a low scoring affair and for that reason only I’m going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Bengals
Dan’s Pick:        Steelers

Dolphins @ Browns (-10.5)

The Miami Dolphins had been competitive for a number of weeks, but got beat badly last week. However, traveling to face the ill-disciplined Browns who will be missing Myles Garrett and so minus their best defensive player, I fancy the Dolphins to keep this game within eleven.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Dolphins

Lions @ Washington (+3.5)

The Detriot Lions might be playing with a backup quarterback and have only won two more games than Washingon, but I think there is a big difference between the teams and DVOA agrees so for me there’s only one way to go.

Gee’s Pick:        Lions
Dan’s Pick:        Lions

Raiders @ Jets (+2.5)

The New York Jets may have beaten Washington even more convincingly last week than they beat the Gaints in week ten, but that doesn’t mean they have magically turned things around. This week they face a team in the playoff hunt, who may have played a surprisingly tight game against the Bengals, but the Raiders won three games straight at home and I fancy them to win by at least a field goal in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Raiders
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Panthers @ Saints (-9.5)

The Carolina Panthers have only gone 1-4 since their bye and got beaten heavily by a rejuvenated Falcons team last week. It seems that Kyle Allen has struggled more since his opening four game win streak and this week they travel to New Orleans Saints team who made their own statement last week to get back to winning ways. This may be a divisional game, but I expect the Saints to win and with the 35.8% between these teams by DVOA a big win does not seem unlikely. Part of me wants to err on the side of caution but I need to pick some points up somewhere and so I’m going to back the Saints – very nervously…

Gee’s Pick:        Saints
Dan’s Pick:        Saints

Seahawks @ Eagles (-1.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles are really struggling, if not already out of the playoff hunt and so can ill afford to lose again. However, the Seattle Seahawks have if anything been better on the road this season and I fancy them to win this game given how well they are playing.

Gee’s Pick:        Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

Jaguars @ Titans (-3.5)

This is an intriguing matchup for me as the Tennessee Titans have gone on a run since moving Ryan Tannehill into the starting lineup and he has won three out of  this four games he started. The Titans could still drag themselves into the division race but that will likely involve winning all four of their division games left. Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars need to find out what the difference between quarterbaks Nick Foles and Gardner Minshew really is. The Jaguars have won and lost in pairs this season, but such patterns are curious anomalies rather than something you can actually account for. If it feels like I am stalling, it is because I am, there is not much between these two teams in DVOA and that extra half point makes me hesitate but I have more faith in what the Titans are doing right now so I am going to reluctantly back the Titans.

Gee’s Pick:        Titans
Dan’s Pick:        Jaguars

Cowboys @ Patriots (-6.5)

This is a trap game. The New England Patriots have been surviving their problems on offence thanks to stellar defensive play and opportunistic special teams and with Tom Brady surfacing with a elbow injury and this number of points I am tempted to pick against them. The problem with that is the Cowboys’ inconsistency and the pick relying on Jason Garrett to be competitive with Bill Belichick. Still, I said I needed big swings to get back into contention and with Brady already struggling before surfacing on the injury report lets see if the Cowboys can put a performance together and keep it within seven.

Gee’s Pick:        Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:        Patriots

Packers @ 49ers (-3.5)

This is one of the matchups of the week as the Green Bay Packers take their 8-2 record on the road to face the San Francisco 49ers. The problem for the Packers could be that whilst their defence has been better, their rush defence is only ranked twenty-eight in the league and going against the 49ers running game they could really struggle. The 49ers have only lost one game, and have established themselves as one of the teams to beat, but when you have Aaron Rodgers and a competent defence you always have a chance and so I’m gong to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Packers
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Ravens @ Rams (+3.5)

The LA Rams really need this win, but I think they are in trouble on offence and so despite them having a top ten defence, they have been grinding out wins here and there. The Baltimore Ravens have me totally convinced now their defence is playing better and complementing their fearsome offence. This is a pretty big line to be giving up to last season’s NFC Super Bowl team, but I think the Ravens keep rolling in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Ravens
Dan’s Pick:        Ravens

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Competition Thursday: 2019 Week Twelve

21 Thursday Nov 2019

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Here are our pick results for week eleven as we start week twelve whether I am ready or not.

Dan: Week 11:   9-5 Overall:   89-73
Dan’s Dad: Week 11:   8-6 Overall:   89-73
Gee: Week 11:   9-5 Overall:   83-79

Colts @ Texans (-3.5)

I’m looking forward to this game, but I am really not sure where to go as whilst both teams have their injury problems, they kind of cancel each other out as the Texans secondary is as injured as the Colts’ offensive skills positions. That might account for the extra half point between these two 6-4 teams who are playing a huge divisional game tonight. In the end, I am going to plump for the always over simplistic better quarterback who has more of his own players available to grab the edge, and whilst that extra half point is going to worry me until the game is over – that’s what I shall have to live with.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Week 12 Trivia

‘Week 11 was an odd week in many ways with some large spreads making the Picks side tricky. That said we saw Gee return to the scoring we have become used to (9); Dan also reaching (9) to level up at the top after I returned a (8). So, with six weeks to go and six points covering top to bottom, no chickens are yet being counted and the colours of the TWF logo remains in the balance.

The Bengals were 2nd best again but can take some heart in the Raiders failing to cover the spread. The Bills at the Dolphins is a game that Dan and I was a few years back but this year the Bills were too strong and more than covered the spread. The Vikes hosted the Broncos, another game I saw years back, the Randy Moss Lateral game, and I think Dan and I could both see the Vikings win but not by enough for the spread and that in fact is exactly what happened.

Standings wise I think we have known for a while that the Bengals and Dolphins ships have sailed but the NFC North looks like another two horse race with the Packers and Vikes tied on eight wins but with Minnesota on a bye week I have to look to the 49ers beating the packers in Sundays late game. Looking ahead though I think the three weeks of the regular season will be pivotal.

OK – the Trivia bit for week 11 asked:

What highly touted player his entire 9 year career with the Detroit Lions after he was selected with the 2nd overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft?

Well both Dan and Gee knew that this was Calvin Johnson so 2 points each leaves Gee on 11 but Dan’s theme bonus last week edges it for him at 14. Oddly I had considered offering an extra point for Johnsons nickname. Dan included that it was ‘Megatron’ but I hadn’t asked it so there you go.

Here’s one for Week 12 then as our road-trip pulls into Green Bay. Not sure how this will go but I want to know:

In the 1996 season, quarterback Brett Favre set an NFC record when he threw 39 touchdown passes in regular season play. Who was the previous record holder?

There are some great names to play for – who gets your vote?

Bye week for now’

2019 Week Eleven Picks

17 Sunday Nov 2019

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Time to find out if I can get back into the picks competition, but let’s start with the trivia competition where Dan also has a strong lead.

‘What highly touted player spent his entire 9 year career with the Detroit Lions after he was selected as the 2nd overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft?’

So having failed miserably to spot the theme, there’s just this week’s question to deal with and I’m very happy with this one as I am sure the answer is Calvin Johnson.

‘Ok, I know this one, but I think Gee will too so I’m not sure it’ll have much impact on the lead unfortunately. Retiring after 9 years would have meant him retiring in 2016 and I remember discussing on the pod how it seemed too early for this guy to retire – the answer is Calvin ‘Megatron’ Johnson.’

Falcons @ Panthers (-5.5)

The Atlanta Falcons looked like a different team coming off a bye, beating the Saints convincing, but the question is whether this turnaround is sustainable and not just a divisional blip. The Falcons are playing the Carolina Panthers who lost to the Packers last week and whilst I’m not sure the Falcons can manage a repeat win, this is too many points for me to lay on the Panthers.

Gee’s Pick:        Falcons
Dan’s Pick:        Falcons

Bills @ Dolphins (+5.5)

The Buffalo Bills are a confounding team as they are the twenty-fourth ranked team by overall DVOA and yet they currently are in a wildcard spot. They travel to face the now two win Miami Dolphins and whilst I can see the Bills winning, this is once again too many points for me to lay.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Dolphins

Cowboys @ Lions (+4.5)

I was totally caught out last week as the Detroit Lions’ quarterback Matthew Stafford could not play as he has a fracture of his transverse processes in his back. A fracture of the back always sounds scary, but these will be playing in a few weeks, but not right now. The Dallas Cowboys are not a team I like to predict as they often seem to be less than the sum of their parts this season, but facing a backup quarterback I like them in this one where I have seen the line as high a +7 for the Lions.

Gee’s Pick:        Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:        Cowboys

Broncos @ Vikings (-10.5)

I hate this line as the Denver Broncos have been really unreliable, and whilst rested and coming of a win in week nine you really can’t trust them. However, whilst I expect the Minnesota Vikings to win, I’m not sure I trust them to cover this line given that they have not exactly been consistent performers either. In the end. I’m going to grab the points in this one as the Broncos defence has got itself back into the top ten by DVOA and the Vikings will be missing Adam Thielen as he tries to get his hamstring healthy.

Gee’s Pick:        Broncos
Dan’s Pick:        Broncos

Jaguars @ Colts (-2.5)

This is a game that I would love to avoid as the Indianapolis Colts might be getting Jaoby Brissett back, but have injuries at receiver whilst the Jacksonville Jaguars look to be starting Nick Foles after he recovered from his broken collar bone. There are so many variables, no real help from the number, and there is only 0.9% between them in overall DVOA so I feel like I need to get hold of a picking pin. The nearest I can get is that the Colts only need to win by a field goal to cover and they are at home so that’s where I’m going but this game could go either way…

Gee’s Pick:        Colts
Dan’s Pick:        Jaguars

Saints @ Buccaneers (+5.5)

This divisional game is curious one as the New Orleans Saints will be looking to bounce back against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers having lost to the Falcons last week, but the Bucs have been frequently competitive thanks to the peaks of Jameis Winston and a quality receiving group. However, the unpredictable thing here is what Saints team we are getting and how many turnovers is Winston going to be responsible for. I’m going to grab the home underdog and hope, but this could be a big mistake.

Gee’s Pick:        Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:        Saints

Jets @ Washington (-1.5)

There is very little to rely on here as Washington have been bad all years, whilst the Jets got a second win last week as they announced that Adam Gase will be the coach next year. This being the New York Jets I don’t know if that is actually true, but given the absence of home advantage in Washington I am going to reluctantly pick the Jets.

Gee’s Pick:        Jets
Dan’s Pick:        Jets

Texans @ Ravens (-4.5)

This should be a cracking game that pits two of the more exciting quarterback against each other, The worry for the Houston Texans is having traded away Jadeveon Clowney in the off-season and lost JJ Watt for the season to injury their front seven is not looking nearly as strong and the Baltimore Ravens are just rolling at the moment. There was no let down for the Ravens against the Bengals last week and Lamar Jackson is playing like the MVP candidate he is. The Texans have had a bye week to prepare for Jackson, and given that Deshaun Watson is pretty good with his legs as well there can be informed internal discussions about stopping a running quarterback, but the Texans are too reliant on the spectacular on offence so I’m going to take the Ravens despite the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Ravens
Dan’s Pick:        Texans

Cardinals @ 49ers (-13.5)

I think this line is off. I do think that the San Francisco 49ers will get back to winning ways but on a short week having lost to the Seahawks on Monday I find it hard to see them beating the Arizona Cardinals by two clear touchdowns given how competitive the Cardinals have been.

Gee’s Pick:        Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:        Cardinals

Bengals @ Raiders (-10.5)

I want to pick the Cincinnati Bengals as this is a big line, but even if their offence does improve with Ryan Finley starting his second game at quarterback, I have no faith in a defence that just cut Preston Brown and has real problems at linebacker. I would love to be proven wrong, but I am not going to pick the Bengals until I see them keep it close.

Gee’s Pick:        Raiders
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Patriots @ Eagles (+3.5)

This line is horrible as the New England Patriots always respond after a loss and have had a bye to prepare for this trip to the Philadelphia Eagles, but there are problems with the Patriots offence this year as they can’t run the ball. The Eagles are still a top ten team by DVOA despite their injury problems, and I’m really tempted to grab the points at home but I’ve just been bitten too many times betting against the Patriots to do it this time.

Gee’s Pick:        Patriots
Dan’s Pick:        Patriots

Bears @ Rams (-6.5)

Both the Chicago Bears and the LA Rams are struggling on offence, although for different reasons yet both look to be slipping out of the playoffs this season. Given the problem with the Rams’ offensive line you can see Khalil Mack wrecking this game and the Rams have too many other injuries on offence for me to back them to win by a touchdown.

Gee’s Pick:        Bears
Dan’s Pick:        Rams

Chiefs @ Chargers (+3.5)

This Monday night marquee matchup is not quite what it looked like when drawn up as the LA Chargers have been hit by injuries and for first time Philip Rivers hasn’t been able to carry on regardless. This could be a spectacular game as the Kansas City Chiefs finally have all their big names on offence healthy, but the defence is just plain bad. The Chiefs can’t afford many more losses, yet alone a divisional one and so despite them losing to the Titans last week, I’m going to back them on the road against the Chargers.

Gee’s Pick:        Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:        Chiefs

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.