Heroes, and the Divisional Weekend

16 Saturday Jan 2016

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Arizona Cardinals, Blair Walsh, Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, David Bowie, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers, Seattle Seahawks, Washington

It has been a rough few days. Between Lemmy’s funeral, the Bengals’ implosion, and then Bowie’s death, I have been wandering around in something of a haze. That’s two music icons and personal heroes gone, along with the continuing twenty-five year wait for a playoff win. That’s not even a championship, but the hope that the team, fans, and the city of Cincinnati would be spared a fifth consecutive playoff loss, but I’ll come back to the Wildcard games in a bit.

In the days following Bowie’s death there have been some writing that they don’t understand the outpouring of grief over a musician, that this is someone that you have never met so why are you sad? The answer to that was put rather beautifully by Lauren Laverne on her Monday radio show, because of course it is personal, music has that strange and magical hook direct into your soul. It has the power to soothe, to inspire, it is the soundtrack to your life, and can take you back to a key moments from your past in an instant. Part of our identity is what we chose to love, what is important to us. This is the same process that makes someone care about the outcome of twenty-two men chasing a ball around a field, what films we like to watch, or what books we read. It is all a part of how we identify ourselves, how we express to the world who and what we are.

I have written before on the positive effects that sport can have, particularly with participation, but also for simply taking someone out of themselves. What I love about Bowie was his endless exploration of self-expression. This pursuit wasn’t a search for a new on trend sound that would help further his career, but the continuing development of a curious artist. I don’t have the single personal moment of a song telling me that I could do or be something that I have heard so many talk about in the last few days. I am too young for him to have revolutionised what was possible, for me it had already happened, but oh boy what a catalogue of songs. To me he was intrinsically intertwined with what a musician should be, and so as a drummer, therefore what I should aspire to be. I can’t hear Rebel Rebel without thinking about my dad, it was one of those conversations father and sons have across generations when they both love music. We all have heroes and influences. Some people have a select few. I could wax lyrical on scientists, politicians, artists of all hues, and yes sports people.

Even as I write the first draft of this blog, we have learned that Alan Rickman has also passed away, again aged 69 and killed by cancer. Death is not something we like to think about, it is an all too painful reminder of our own mortality. It is even more shocking when it comes as a surprise, when we were ignorant of the illness, when an album was only released three days earlier.

So how do I pull this back to sport of all things? Well by dint of the aforementioned discussion on policing grief. Like all things, there are degrees of grief. Life in all its infinite complex glory gives us endless things to care about, and usually concern over one thing does not deny concern about the other. We have to have some kind of balance, otherwise we’d collapse under the cares of the world. I am saddened by the death of a hero. But what about all the wars? My team lost a playoff game. Are you not concerned by the systematic dismantling of the welfare state? My team is moving city. Do I contradict myself? Very well then, I contradict myself. I am large, I contain multitudes.

With apologies to Walt Whitman, we’ll get back to football, and the various sets of fans that have had a pretty bad week as well.

The Houston Texans had done well to even make the playoffs, but last weekend really was one game too far. The game started with a one hundred and six yard kick off return touchdown by the Chiefs, and things never improved as the Texans slipped to a 30-0 loss. The defence actually gave a reasonable account of themselves, especially with JJ Watt having further injuries, but the offence was horrible. Racking up five turnovers, with Brian Hoyer throwing four interceptions and two fumbles, losing one to the Chiefs, things never got going in the passing game. In fairness, having your starting left tackle is always going to hurt, but the lack of options behind DeAndre Hopkins really hurt the Texans, and you have to think they will be looking to address this in the offseason.

I have said playoff win or bust for the Bengals all season, and it was another painful loss. However, if last year’s loss was explainable by the number of injuries to the skill positions on offence, then this one was understandable given the Bengals were without their starting quarterback and still gave a reasonable account of themselves in the fourth quarter. Despite not scoring in the first three quarters, AJ McCarron put the Bengals in a position to win the game, and they had the ball with 1:50 left on the clock. With a year left on his contract, building one of the league’s most talented rosters, and with his coaching tree still expanding, it appears that Marvin Lewis is safe for another year in Cincinnati, but he will have to address the issue of discipline/poise in the offseason. I have no issue with either of the late penalties that cost the Bengals this game, although Joey Porter had no business being on the field and another coach had already pulled Reggie Nelson’s dreadlocks on the sideline, but you have to be smarter than both Burfict and Jones were at the end of this game. I am sure the league will be looking at ways to control this fixture going forward as they will desperate to avoid the rancour escalating further given the Steelers and Bengals face each other twice a season. Already Hue Jackson has left to be head coach of the Cleveland Browns, so it will be another season of change at coordinator for the Bengals, but so much of the team’s recent success has been built through the offseason and draft that hopefully this part of the process will take care of itself once more.

The most painful loss of the Wildcard round has to be the Minnesota Viking’s agonising last second loss on a missed chip shot twenty-seven yard field goal. You have to think that Blair Walsh will be thinking about that kick for years to come, but this should not take the gloss of the continuing progress the Vikings have made, In ex-Bengal coordinator Mike Zimmer’s second year in charge the Vikings were able to wrestle the NFC North division away from the Green Bay Packers, and have a young foundation to build on. They need to sure up the offensive line and get Teddy Bridgewater some options on offence, but the Vikings have a very tough defence and are heading in the right direction. You can argue that they have the most to look forward to out of the four teams that were eliminated last weekend.

That said, Washington are also making good progress in another ex-Bengals coordinator’s second year in charge. Fittingly, old offensive coordinator Jay Gruden found a formula during the course of the season that turned quarterback Kirk Cousins into one of the most effective passers in the league in the final weeks. With two solid receivers and a very promising progression from tight end Jordan Reid there is hope for them next season. They will need to strengthen their defence, particularly in the secondary, if they want to compete in their division again next season, but they were able to compete with the Packers for three quarters. There looks to be a foundation to build from as long as they can sign Cousins to a sensible contract.

I will come back to the franchises that are moving in the offseason once all the deals have been firmed up, but I can’t help feeling sorry for the fans in St. Louis who are losing their team. It at least makes sense for the Rams to return to Los Angeles, and the offer has been made for the Chargers to join them. We will have to see if they agree, but it looks likely that they will be on the move in some way or the other. At least the Raiders look set to stay in Oakland, but I’m sure their fans won’t feel safe until the franchise finds a long term stadium solution.

So now onto this week’s games, which unsurprising all look to be great.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots

All the talk about the Patriots is that they are getting all their key players back, and that just having Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski back will enable to Tom Brady to get the ball out quicker, helping the Patriots in pass protection. This is likely to be the deciding factor in this game, the Chiefs defence has been excellent for most of the season since they got corner Shaun Smith back from injury, but their pass rush will need to be effective if the Chiefs are to win this game.

The Patriots defence has been good for large chunks of the season, but the Chiefs have been getting it done without spectacular passing numbers from Alex Smith, who doesn’t turn the ball over. They actually seem to have improved since running back Jamaal Charles has gone down, but it will be interesting to see if they can scheme their way into competing in this game.

I wouldn’t like to call this game as there are too many injury unknowns, but I am expecting a good contest.

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals

I am looking forward to this game as the Cardinals are my favourite team left in the competition. Their aggressive long passing game has been effective against virtually everyone, whilst they got a huge amount of pressure on Aaron Rodgers the last time they played.

The Packers may have pulled away from Washington at the end of the game, but the offence still hasn’t proved to me that it can play against man coverage, which has been their downfall for much of the season. If they can turn the Cardinal’s aggressive pass rush against them, then they might be able to win this game as their defence has been playing well recently, but I am expecting them to come up short in this one.

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers

The Seahawks are a good team, but they are lucky to be playing in this game. They should have lost against the Vikings if Blair Walsh hadn’t missed the last second field goal. Their offence got very little going last week except when for when Russell Wilson made plays out of structure, but the Seahawks defence is looking good once more and should keep them in contention.

However, the one area the Seahawks defence have struggled with is against tight ends, and Cam Newton’s favourite target this season has been tight end Greg Olson. The Panthers beat the Seahawks in week six, and with their own great defence you would expect them to repeat the feat at home. The Seahawks are always a dangerous proposition in the post season, but you don’t go 15-1 without being very good.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos

Our final game of the weekend sees Peyton Manning start the game after an injury plagued season where he has ranked amongst the worst quarterbacks in the league. We really can’t be sure how effective the offence will be against a Steelers defence that plays better than its patchy secondary, but the Broncos have been like this all season. What has got them into the playoffs is a fearsome defence, and although they had difficulties against the Steelers earlier in the season, they have been mixing more zone into their coverages, which might help them as the Bengals’ two high safety look did limit the Steelers’ passing attack.

The Steelers will be concerned about attempting their normal game on offence, as Antonio Brown has been ruled out of this week’s game with the concussion he sustained at the end of the game against the Bengals. Somehow Ben Roethlisberger is only questionable despite a sprained AC join and torn ligaments in his throwing shoulder. If you combine this with the injuries to their running backs and the Steelers might just be too injured to win this one. They will play the Broncos tough, but I would have more faith in the Bronco’s Brock Osweiler than Landry Jones if it does come down to a battle of the backups. I’m expecting the Steelers’ defence to blitz the Broncos heavily to keep themselves in the game, but I think this could be a week too many for the Steelers.

It should be a great set of games this weekend, and let’s hope the world eases up on us a bit going into next week.

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 13

16 Saturday Jan 2016

Posted by gee4213 in Podcasts

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NFL, Podcast

With Wildcard Week in the books, Gee and Dan look back at the first week of Post-season football. There’s an update on the coaching merry-go-round, a preview of the Divisional games, and reaction to the news of the Rams’ impending relocation.

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 13

The Start of the Offseason, and Wildcard Weekend

08 Friday Jan 2016

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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Analytics, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings, NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington

I approach this weekend with both excitement and trepidation. I have maintained from the start of pre-season that it was a playoff win or bust for the Bengals, and so of course they are playing the old enemy ten years after the hopes of Bengaldom were so cruelly dashed by the injury to Carson Palmer’s knee in their infamous 2005 playoff loss to the Steelers. I am not here to pillory the Steelers, but for those who know how badly I will take a loss this weekend, be assured that I will have people to watch over me.

The NFL season has this strange two tier effect in that for twenty teams the season is done, and so you get the so called Black Monday firings, although these seem to be moving into Sunday these days. Yet for twelve teams the season continues, but now the teams who have fired are looking for new head coaches, and there are always tensions as they try to find a gap to interview a coordinator from a playoff bound team to be their head coach. The system has existed for years, and I’m sure there are reasons that it cannot be altered, but it does feel like it would make more sense to get the season done with before signings could happen. I am sure that Hue Jackson is focussed on the game plan for Saturday’s game, but his upcoming interview with the Cleveland Browns has to be some kind of distraction.

Speaking of which, the Browns have been very quick out of the gate in terms of not only firing their head coach and GM, but also in hiring new people. There has been a fair bit of scepticism about the internal promotion of Sashi Brown to executive vice president of football operations and the hiring of Paul DePodesta, a baseball analytics executive from the New York Mets who was part of the famed Oakland Athletics “Monebyball” approach based on sabermetrics. I have some sympathy with the worry that with everyone seeming to report in to Jimmy Haslam that there might be problems with leadership, but I am cautiously optimistic about this for one simple reason. I have spent a lot of this year referring to the Browns as a mess, and they have done a bad job of constructing their roster, yet with these moves the team are clearly moving in the direction of analytics as being their approach. Only time will tell if they will stick to this path, and if they can make it work, but for the first time in a while it is actually possible to point to a plan in Cleveland. I am really hoping that plan is does not include Hue Jackson as it is bad enough that the Bengals are likely losing him from the team, without having to face him twice a year. Still it is early days, but I am very curious to see how things progress in Cleveland and if this new approach can take hold. And who know, if they are interested in analytics and new thinking, perhaps Chip Kelly will be getting a call.

If the Browns acted quickly, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers caught Dan and I off guard by waiting until Wednesday night, Thursday morning UK time, after we had recorded the podcast to announce the firing of Lovie Smith. It appears that part of this decision might be a reaction to the Dolphins enquiring about their offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, who is now seen as a strong candidate to become head coach. This makes sense in that having just drafted your franchise quarterback, you wouldn’t want to make him learn a new system in his second year. The other likely factor is that not only has Lovie Smith only won eight games during his two years in charge, but the defence did not look like it was progressing and that is his side of the ball.

Perhaps the most confusing of all the team moves was not a firing, but the extension of both Chuck Pagano and Ryan Grigson. It seems like all year we have heard about friction between head coach Pagano and his GM, whilst the team’s inability to protect the quarterback sunk them in a very winnable division. That Pagano was able to beat the Tennesse Titans with street free agent quarterbacks Josh Freeman and Ryan Lindley only having a week’s practice indicates that Pagano perhaps deserver to be back, but given the questions many people, including myself, have about the approach Grigson has taken to free agency and the draft, it is surprising that he was retained. However, they are now tied together by contract for another four year so we will just have to see what the plan is in the offseason and if they can turn things around.

The offseason will continue to turn with or without me, so let’s take a look at the weekend games.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans

In the first of the Saturday games, the 11-5 Chiefs travel to face the 9-7 Texans, and they are somewhat similar teams. Both had bad starts to the season, strong defences, game managing quarterbacks, and a very high quality receiver. Somehow JJ Watt manage to amass 17.5 sacks despite playing with a broken hand for part of the season, whist the Chiefs defence found itself once the secondary solidified, and rookie corner Marcus Peters jointly leads the league in interceptions.

I am really looking forward to this game as I think there will be a lot of good defence on display, and both head coaches have done good jobs in keeping their team together through the bad starts and getting their teams to the playoffs. However, the Chiefs are currently on a ten game winning streak and finished the season ranked the fifth team overall by DVOA according to Football Outsiders, moving up to second in their weighted DVOA stat which emphasises recent performance more. I’m enjoying not having to predict games, but I think the Chiefs will likely win a tight bruising game to start the weekend.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals

The big story of the Bengals coming into this game is that Andy Dalton is unlikely to play, as always seemed to be the case once he fractured his thumb playing the Steelers four weeks ago. The Bengals have what is widely regarded as one of the most well rounded rosters in the league, and certainly they are in better shape than they were coming out of the regular season. However, there is huge amount of press focus being place on Marvin Lewis and his zero playoff wins, and people do think the Bengals can win. The defence is good, and narrowly missed out on allowing the least amount of points in the league to the Seahawks whilst still setting a franchise record. The skill position players are still all available, but there is definitely a drop in play at quarterback, although he is making all the right noises and doesn’t so much look phased, as like a good young quarterback with only three starts.

The problem for me in trying to be objective about this game is that I am unreasonably nervous. The players are focussed on themselves, and very few have been here for all of the recent string of playoff losses. I think they will be isolating themselves from the city’s angst, but the fact of the matter is the crowd will be worried as they carry twenty-five years without a playoff win into the game. And of course it had to be the Steelers…

They have had injury problems, and a defence that can be patchy, but they are a tough scrappy team with one of the scariest receiver groups in the game. The Steelers come into the game with a solid win against the Bengals four weeks ago, and in fact Marvin Lewis is only 5-13 against the Steelers with four of those wins coming in Pittsburgh. I will be able to focus more on the Steelers when they make it through this game (I have no idea at this point if I’m trying to jinx them, or prepare myself for if they Bengals do lose) but for now let’s just say I want to get the game over with and no what the story of the offseason is going to be. I desperately want Marvin Lewis to get a playoff win as he has done so much to improve the state of the Bengals, and it would be so good if they could get on a run and Andy Dalton could put to the rest his critics as well, but for now, I’m moving on to games that I can think about with less trepidation.

Seattle Seahawks @ Minesota Vikings

The Vikings reward for beating Green Bay last week and winning their division is to host a red hot Seahawks team who finished the season as the top ranked team by DVOA. Another team to struggle early, they had problems holding onto leads, but the defence has found its way again, whilst Russell Wilson’s transition midway through the season into a very effective pocket quarterback despite, or perhaps because of the loss of tight end Jimmy Graham who the Seahawks traded for in the offseason, has made them a frightening proposition.

The Viking on the other hand, have been quietly solid all year as Mike Zimmer has taken them to a division win in only his second year as head coach. The defence is sure tackling, features Zimmer’s double A-gap blitz looks, and has only allowed an opponent to score more than twenty-three points twice all season. Sadly one of these was a game where the Seahawks blew them out 7-38, but they were missing three starters down the spine of their defence. However those starters have returned, and the weather forecast is suggesting it will be an incredibly cold game, which could hamper the suddenly explosive passing game of the Seahawks. However, the problem with this is that Adrian Peterson by his own admission has never adjusted to the very cold temperatures that can occur in Minnesota. Not only that, but whilst the Seahawks’ defence has had their problems this season, stopping the run has not been one of them, and they have been looking formidable once more in recent weeks.

I see this being a close game, but I would imagine the Seahawks are likely to continue on into next week.

Green Bay Packers @ Washington

The Packers have had a strange season thanks to the injury to Jordy Nelson, but are really struggling at the moment with constant shuffling of their offensive line due to injury, a stagnant run game, and receivers that are struggling to get open. Somehow Aaron Rodgers was able to get them into position to draw level with the Vikings at the end of last week’s game, but he is not elevating those around him, and it appears that the season has worn him down.

The Packers visit are travelling to face a Washington team who have one of the league’s better passing attacks at the end of the season. Their defence might not be that great, but frankly Kirk Cousins is the quarterback with the best form, and has put together a remarkable string of stats since the infamous, “You like that?” game.

I have a feeling that with the problems they currently have, and being on the road, that Washington may well win this game. However, with a decent defence, and Aaron Rodgers, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Packers found a way to win.

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 12

08 Friday Jan 2016

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NFL, Podcast

The regular NFL season may have finished, but Dan and Gee are still here, mulling over the Coaching merry-go-round that was ‘Black Monday’, debate the post-season’s seedings, and also preview Wildcard Week! And find out who’s won our Pick ’em challenge!

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 12

The End of the Regular Season, Aaron Donald on Coaching Tape, and Week 17 Picks

03 Sunday Jan 2016

Posted by gee4213 in Amateur Adventures in Film

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Aaron Donald, Chip Kelly, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles, St. Louis Rams, Week 17 Picks

It is one of those tricks of time that the last games of the regular season are being played today, and it has been a long season, yet it doesn’t feel like five minutes since the season started. One of the good things about being a fan of American football is that you go into the cold gloom of January with excitement for playoffs, although as a Bengals fan there is usually a fair amount of trepidation.

The end of season head coach firings have already begun, with Chip Kelly being let go from the Philadelphia Eagles earlier this week. It feels like an odd time to do it, and I am not sure I buy the reasons stated by the team as no one from other NFL teams are going to be contacting him this week. It also seems strange to me that you would hand over control of your roster to someone, and then fire them after a solitary season, but then again I am not in the building so it could be seen as making a strong decision to stop something that has gone wrong as quickly as possible. Only time will tell, but there will need to be some consistent effort in Philadelphia to establish if there is a long term plan in place. I will be curious to see what route the Eagles take next as well as if Chip Kelly gets another chance. Kelly has already stated that he doesn’t want control over personnel in the future, but with all the new training ideas he was trying it was exciting to have him in the league, even if I am not sure if his up tempo offence, with the results it also has for his defence, can lead to sustained success in the NFL.

It is kind of frightening that the offseason will start on Monday, with the annual coach firings, and all that means for the staff involved. It is very easy to forget in amongst all the news stories, that their will be numerous families moving cities, and various coaches nervously waiting to see if they are staying or will be looking for an opportunity elsewhere. It will also see the usual jockeying for coaches, and trying to hire from the teams in the playoffs. In addition to all the usual coaching and player moves, we have three franchises that could be moving to LA. This is always a strange topic UK fans as it is incredibly rare for a team to move location over here, where as it is not uncommon for NFL franchises to change cities, and two of the teams in flux have played in Los Angeles before. The NFL has become a year round news generator, with perhaps the only true time off for those working for the teams being between OTAs and the start of training camp, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves; there is still a week of football left followed by the playoffs.

I decided to treat myself this week with the coaching tape given that it won’t make sense to look at something from a team not going to the playoffs next week so I took a look at the performance of the St Louis Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald.

The Rams were playing the Seattle Seahawks in Seattle, and not only did they win this game, but they managed to sack quarterback Russell Wilson six times and hit him a further thirteen. Now Aaron Donald may have only hit Wilson twice in this game and failed to add to his tally of eleven sacks that has him inside the top ten for sacks in the league, but he still had a big effect in this game.

The first thing that became obvious to me was Donald generating a consistent pressure up the middle, sometimes slipping between offensive linemen, working round as part of a stunt, or simply beating his man. The Seattle line struggled to block him with only one player, and frequently used two players to control Donald. In fact, there was one snap in the fourth quarter where despite the Rams rushing only four players, three Seahawk offensive linemen blocked Donald. What I was not expecting to see was Donald drop into shallow zones as part of a zone blitz, but he did this five times in this game and the Rams were not punished when this happened.

Although his stats were not gaudy, Donald did get pressure, only missing out on getting a sack by small margins on several snaps, and he was also disruptive in the running game. He demonstrated the ability to shed blocks to make tackles, but as well as making tackles or getting pressure by getting past or shedding his blocker, he interrupted several plays simply by driving his blocker back. He effectively stopped the run several times with this simple drive, and on one play I am still not sure how Russell Wilson completed a pass given that Donald drove the Seahawk’s right tackle back into Wilson as he threw the ball. Even when double teamed he was sometimes able to affect the play as his push was directed towards the running back, clogging up the running lane. He also created a penalty when JR Sweezy held Donald as he went passed and took him to the ground.

I don’t think Aaron Donald struck me as having quite the same explosive first step as Geno Atkins who I watch week in week out, but in his second year in the league Donald has established himself as one of the top defensive players in the league. He constantly has to be accounted for and creates room for the players around him to work as well as directly contributing against both the run and pass. I am looking forward to seeing how the Rams play next season, and if the strong finish they have put together can finally lead to them competing in the division as so often has been suggested in recent years.

It is going to be an odd week to pick games given there are a lot of teams with little to play for, or teams resting players ahead of the playoffs, but for the final time in this season’s competition, here are Dan and mine’s picks. Let’s hope they are better than last week…

Gee: Week 16 6-10 Overall 125-115

Dan: Week 16 6-10 Overall 116-124

Saints @ Falcons (-4.5)

The Saints surprised me last week, but the Falcons seem to be finishing the season strongly and will be looking to build for next season, whilst things look to be difficult again for the Saints next year.

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Falcons

Jets @ Bills (+2.5)

The Bills are talking about this game being their Super Bowl, but the plain fact for me is that one team just beat the Patriots and need this game to get to the playoffs, and the other gives away too many penalties and are inconsistent. I’m backing what I think is the better team in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Jets

Lions @ Bears (-1.5)

The Bears have done well this season, and look to be building something going forward although I am sure the fans in Chicago will be hoping to hold onto offensive coordinator Adam Gase given the job he has done with Jay Cutler this year. However, whilst the Lions may have the same record as the Bears this season, they are 5-2 since their bye week and new coordinator Jim Bob Cooter seems to have found a formula to get the Detroit offence running. I think the Lions finish the season strongly as I trust them more than the Bears.

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Lions

Ravens @ Bengals (-7.5)

The Bengals are heading into the playoffs with a lot of questions, but AJ McCarron did okay in the first half against the Broncos, and I think they will have enough to deal with the Ravens in Cincinnati. However, I am looking forward to seeing what Ryan Mallet does this week, but I don’t think the Ravens have enough to win this one and with the Bengals needing to win to push the Broncos for the second seed, I’m hoping they cover this one.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

Steelers @ Browns (+9.5)

The Browns are limping to the end of the season, and somehow Johnny Manziel entered the concussion protocol on Wednesday so it feels like they season is ending the way it has gone since week one. The Steelers need this win to try to get into the playoffs and I think they will cover this with their high powered offence being too much for the Browns.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Washington @ Cowboys (-2.5)

I am really not sure what to do with this game as the talk seems to be that with nothing to play for, that Washington will be resting players, but almost on principle I refuse to back the Cowboys, even in Dallas.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Washington

Titans @ Colts (-6.5)

This is a horrible game to pick, as the Titans have lost a lot of games, whilst we don’t actually know who will be playing quarterback for the Colts as their season falls apart. They need ten results to go their way for the Colts to make the playoffs, and I’m not sure that the one they have under their own control will go their way, yet alone that they will win by a clear seven points.

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Titans

Patriots @ Dolphins (+9.5)

The Patriots have had so many injuries this season, and yet still I think they will win this game against a Dolphins team that have been simply bad this year. However, the Patriots will be looking to keep their key players healthy so I don’t see them winning by ten points.

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Eagles @ Giants (-2.5)

Often when a team does lose a head coach during the season, it can produce an immediate reaction, but given how the Eagles have been playing, plus a Giants team at home with a point to prove I can’t look past the Giants in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Giants

Jagaurs @ Texans (-6.5)

The Houston Texans may be coming into form at the right moment, but I’m not so sure that their offence is that good. Whilst the Jaguars have consistently been unpredictable, they have a great core on offence and I’m not so sure that the Texans are going to win by a clear seven points.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Texans

Chargers @ Broncos (-8.5)

The Broncos defence looked like best unit in the game in the second half of their win against the Bengals, and this week welcome a Chargers team that are headed into an offseason of change. I think that the Broncos will win, but I am not sure they are going to win by nine points given the way their offence is playing.

Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Broncos

Raiders @ Chiefs (-6.5)

The Chiefs are on such a run of form, with a defence that is as scary as anybody’s in the league. The Raiders have some good young players, but Derek Carr has faded a bit down the stretch and I think this is a game where the Chiefs will run out comfortable winners.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Rams @ 49ers (+3.5)

The Rams have now won three in a row since firing their offensive coordinator, and are on something of a run, where as the 49ers will be looking forward to the offseason and getting this year behind them.

Gee’s Pick: Rams
Dan’s Pick: Rams

Seahawks @ Cardinals (-6.5)

The Cardinals are such an aggressive team, and if this was truly competitive game then I might think about them covering this game, but at the end of the year with nothing really on the line in a divisional game I’m not sure I can seem them winning by seven against a Seahawks team who will be looking to right the ship after a bad loss last week.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Buccaneers @ Panthers (-10.5)

The Panthers might be better off not having the pressure of an unbeaten season hanging over them, but I’m not sure how they will play in this one so I can’t bring myself to back them by eleven points even if the Buccaneers are not finishing this season strongly.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

Vikings @ Packers (-3.5)

Right now I think the Vikings are the better team, with a tough defence and an offence who know who they are and how to get the job done. I don’t expect the same performance from the Packers back in Green Bay as they had last week, but with injury worries on their o-line as well as the problems they’ve had all year on offence, I don’t expect it to be that much better.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 11

01 Friday Jan 2016

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So, as the Christmas and New Year hangovers wear off, we’re back to discuss all things NFL, in the week when Chip Kelly and the Philadelphia Eagles parted company, and the Carolina Panthers’ winning streak came to an end. And has Gee extended his lead in the ‘Pick Em’ competition even further? Only one way to find out…!

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 11

Week 16 Picks

27 Sunday Dec 2015

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NFL, Week 16 Picks

With writing around Christmas I thought I’d take a slightly longer look at each team as I go through the rest of the week sixteen picks and wait for Dan to send me his.

Panthers @ Falcons (+7.5)

The Falcons finally halted the skid last week as they beat the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road. This year has definitely been an improvement, and I think it is too early to be thinking about replacing Matt Ryan, but they will need to solidify their line and give Ryan more passing options as well as improving their defence in the offseason if they want to continue the improvement next year.

Meanwhile the Panthers are coming off a win against the Giants in a game which the locker room were saying felt like a loss. The Panthers are unbeaten so far this season, and we are getting into that time of year where some teams will be thinking of resting players and I just don’t know what Ron Rivera will be planning to do with his team.

I am not expecting a repeat of the shutout win that the Panthers had in Carolina two weeks ago, but the Panthers will want to keep the stretch going and backup quarterback Derek Anderson won games last year if they do rest Cam Newton. Part of me wants to pick the Falcons as it is a divisional game and the Falcons would love to put a spanner in the works and end the unbeaten run, but I think the Panthers will go into the last game undefeated and I think they’ll cover the points too.

Gee’s Pick: Panthers

Cowboys @ Bills (-5.5)

The Bills have not lived up to their pre-season billing, with Rex Ryan making the defence demonstrably worse this season with basically the same pieces as last year. The offence has improved with Tyrod Taylor playing well in his first year as a starting quarterback and Sammy Watkins beginning to show his first round pedigree, but the Bills have been too ill disciplined to sustain success.

The Cowboys season was derailed by injuries to key offensive personnel, but if they were going to compete in a poor NFC East they needed to win more games whilst Tony Romo was initially out with a broken collar bone. They were unable to do this, and Romo came back early to pick up a win before reinjuring his collar bone.

This is a curious game for me to pick, but although I think the Bills should win, with them missing LeSean McCoy and the season they have had so far I cannot bring myself to back the Bills to win by six points. A feat they have only managed four times this season, and two of those were against a struggling Dolphins team.

Gee’s Pick: Cowboys

Bears @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

The Buccaneers have faltered in the last couple of weeks, but they have still made strides this year and have at least solved the question of who will be their quarterback for the next few years. Not only has Jameis Winston put up some impressive figures, but he has not thrown as many interceptions as people feared given his college career. The defence will need to play more consistently next year for them to improve, and Winston could do with his offensive line getting better again next season, but there is at least something to build on.

It was thought that the Chicago Bears were going to be horrible this year, and the season certainly started badly, but slowly John Fox and his staff have made them competitive. I wouldn’t like to predict what moves they will make in the offseason, and if they are going to stick with Jay Cutler, but certainly the defence has begun to get comfortable in their new system.

The Bears are travelling to Tampa Bay coming off a third straight loss, but four of their five wins have come on the road this season. I am really not sure which way to go on this game as I don’t have much idea of how the game will go, but I can’t quite bring myself to back the Bears and have lost too many times picking road underdogs this season.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers

Browns @ Chiefs (-12.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs started this season horribly, going 1-5 before turning their season round and winning eight straight to get themselves back into the playoff hunt, and they still have a shot at winning the AFC West if the Broncos continue to drop games. Their defence is currently ranked fourth by DVOA, whilst their offence has found a way despite losing Jamaal Charles earlier in the season. The addition of free agent Jeremy Maclin has helped a passing game that famously struggled to get the ball to receivers last season.

The Browns are a mess, and it is hard to say much more than that. They have a head coach that has a defensive background, and yet have gone backwards on that side of the ball this year, whilst the offence has faltered and they don’t have a starting quarterback they all believe in or even trust. There are signs that Johnny Manziel has made some improvements on the field, but there have been further issues off it, and it is hard to see any team committing to him at this point. I say this as it is very possible Manziel gets traded in the offseason as there could be a front office shake up once the season is done. This a team that has done a bad job of finding talent in recent years and that has missed on too many first round picks, so it would not be a surprise if they start the offseason looking for a new GM.

The points are high for this game, but the Chiefs beat the Ravens by twenty points on the road last week, and welcome a Browns team that has the thirtieth ranked defence by DVOA. Not only that, but the Browns’ last close loss against a team with a winning record was back in week six against an offensively challenged Broncos team.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs

49ers @ Lions (-8.5)

The Lions have had a strange season that started badly and led to coach firings and their owner clearing house in the front office. The change in offensive coordinator does seem to have had an effect on the offence, but it is hard to know what direction they will go in the offseason until we know who will be making the decisions. This includes whether the Lions will keep Jim Caldwell, who managed to get the win last week against the Saints, but never strikes you as the most demonstrative of head coaches. I don’t know if this is actually a bad thing, but without following the team really closely or interacting with him as an individual it is hard to gauge, and hiring a head coach is one of the key things a GM gets to do so the new appointment may well want to pick their own candidate.

This week the Lions welcome the struggling 49ers to Detroit, but given the amount of talent the 49ers lost it is going to be a difficult few seasons in San Francisco. The most hopeful conversation I have heard recently for the 49ers is that in Blaine Gabbert they have found a quarterback that could hold the fort for them whilst they develop a quarterback behind him. Certainly the draft doesn’t seem to hold a ready to start quarterback this year and the 49ers have too many holes to reach for one if there is a better player at another position.

The 49ers defence has played better at home this year, but with them being on the road it is hard to foresee anything other than a win for the Lions, particularly as they lost to the Browns after their last win against the Bears. However, this feels like too many points to me, and so whilst I don’t feel confident about it I will back the 49ers to cover

Gee’s Pick: 49ers

Texans @ Titans (+2.5)

The Titans season has not seen them get a lot of wins, but their defence has been better this year, and they appear to have a young quarterback they can build round. This was not enough to keep Ken Whisenhunt in a job, and Mike Mularkey may not have won enough games to make the job his either. Only time will tell what is going to happen in Tennessee this offseason, but it will be one to keep an eye on.

The Texans have had a strange year, but thanks to playing in the AFC South and the problems in Indianapolis they stand atop of the division with a 7-7 record. They have had four different people play quarterback for them this year, thanks to a combination of the early indecision by head coach Bill O’Brien and recent injuries. However, the defence has come around from earlier in the season, and JJ Watt has quietly been having another stellar year despite breaking his hand in practice a couple of weeks ago.

The Texans may be on the road this week, but with the playoffs within their grasp I can’t see them losing to the Titans.

Gee’s Pick: Texans

Colts @ Dolphins (-2.5)

The Dolphins were one of the teams that had supposedly done well in the offseason, but as is often the case this did not translate into actual wins. There have been multiple coach firings and you have to think that interim head coach Dan Campbell will be gone at the end of the season. There are points of hope for the franchise, but as I have said multiple times on the podcast, they will need to address their secondary and offensive line if they want to compete in a tough division.

The Colts season has been a mess, and whilst backup quarterback Matt Hasselbeck defied my reasoning that Ryan Grigson had not done a good job building a roster around Andrew Luck for a couple of games, he his now showing his age as repeatedly gets hit. Their offence has struggled all year, whilst their defence has taken a small step back, but there could be changes in the offseason as owner James Irsay cannot be happy with the way things have gone.

I don’t really want to pick either side in this game, but I will go for the home team.

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Patriots @ Jets (+3.5)

The Jets have had a very good season in Todd Bowles’s first year as head coach, with both sides of the ball improving and some stability finally seeming to descend on an often turbulent franchise. Some of the additions in the offseason don’t look to be long term solutions due to the age of players, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has been undeniably effective with Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker as they look to secure a playoff berth.

The Patriots season could have been derailed by injuries were it not for the continued excellence of Bill Belichick and his staff. For many there will always be an asterisk next to Belichick’s name, but he is an undeniably great coach and to keep his team winning with the injury issues they have had on the offensive line and receiver. The defence retooled their secondary successfully after letting their Super Bowl winning starting corners go in the offseason, but have managed to maintain their record despite changing their approach.

However, Belichick is already discussing resting starters having had it serve him well last season and with them being on the road I suspect this will be a tight game in New York given that the Jets only lost by a touchdown in New England. I could regret this, but I am going to take the points in this one as I believe it will be a close game.

Gee’s Pick: Jets

Steelers @ Ravens (+10.5)

The Baltimore Ravens are usually seen as a well run franchise, but the questions I had about their secondary were compounded by a string of injuries that has led them to have a horrible season. You would trust the infrastructure to rebuild successfully in the offseason, but this is a rare write-off year for this team.

The Steelers have had their own injury woes this season, including the loss of arguably the best running back in the league, but with an outstanding trio of receivers their offence is still terrifying and their defence has been doing enough for them to be making a late surge into playoff contention.

The Ravens lost a tight overtime game earlier in the season, and will be desperate to stick it to a divisional rival and possibly stop them getting into the playoffs. I would love to pick the Ravens, but with the questions at quarterback and how well the Steelers offence is playing I can’t bring myself to do it, so although it wouldn’t surprise me if the Ravens did manage to keep it close, I think the Steelers will cover.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers

Jaguars @ Saints (-3.5)

The Saints are in salary cap hell, and their defence has looked simply horrendous as it is rooted to the bottom of the Football Outsiders DOVA rankings with a huge gap to the thirty-first ranked San Diego defence. There are rumours of Sean Payton going to Miami, or any other team the Saints face with questions at head coach, but he has been unable to sort his defence suspensions since the Bounty Gate suspensions so it will be interesting to see how he does next season whether he is in New Orleans or not. They have managed to look good at times on offence, but Drew Brees is now dealing with a partially torn planter facsia having had shoulder problems early in the year, and he has been the reason the offence has worked when it has done so this could be a rough end to the season for the fans in New Orleans.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been maddeningly inconsistent this year, showing good progress on offence, but not quite being able to get results consistently. They have possibly done enough to keep head coach Gus Bradley in a job for another year, but the defence needs to improve if they are truly going to compete for the division. However, they have a good young nucleus on offence with a pair of receivers and a tight end that can compete with most teams, and if Black Bortles can reduce the mistakes further then they could be a real handful.

For this game, with Drew Brees as an injury worry and given the Saints’ passing defence, I will very happily take the points and hope the Jaguars don’t trip me up again.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars

Packers @ Cardinals (-4.5)

The Cardinals took a big blow with the loss of Tyrann Mathieu last week, but head coach Bruce Arians kept his team in contention last year despite losing two starting quarterbacks to injury so I trust that he will find a way. The Cardinals aggressive offence and defence has seen them win the AFC West, and they will be looking to make a deep run into the playoffs.

The Packers have had a difficult year, with struggles at times on both sides of the ball, but they have still made it to a 10-4 record that most teams would love to have. However, whilst the return of Mike McCarthy to play calling duties has produced wins in recent weeks, I am not convinced that it has solved everything and certainly the passing game is not functioning how we have come to expect from Aaron Rodgers.

The points make me pause slightly, but I think Arizona are the better team, and whilst there is a lot of talk that there will be a large number of Packer fans in attendance, I think that the Cardinals will win this one and cover these points.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals

Rams @ Seahawks (-13.5)

The Seahawks had a turbulent start to the season, but as has often been the case in recent years, come to the business end of the season the team starts to come good. The defence might have taken a slight step back when compared to their recent greatness, but Russell Wilson has started the transformation to a pocket passer and has really taken ownership of the offence since he lost tight end Jimmy Graham to injury.

The Rams have also had another turbulent season, but theirs seems to be ending in the usual nearly but not quite season. The defence hasn’t quite lived up to where they could be despite defensive tackle Aaron Donald having a monster season, but the real problem has been on offence. For much of the season they have had no real passing game to speak of, allowing teams to focus on stopping Todd Gurley once he was brought into the starting line-up. However, they do seem to have improved since the firing of their offensive coordinator two weeks ago, and whilst I don’t expect them to win this game, I do wonder if they can keep this game close than the points suggest.

I am not confident in this pick, but I will back the Rams to cover in divisional game.

Gee’s Pick: Rams

Gaints @ Vikings (-6.5)

The Vikings continue their progress under Mike Zimmer, with a tough defence and an offence that does enough for them to win. Whilst quarterback Teddy Bridgwater might not throw the prettiest ball you have ever seen, he seems to be progressing and has thrown for over three hundred and fifty yards for the last two games.

The Giants have been in contention for the NFC East for most of the year, but this has mainly been on the back of Eli Manning throwing to Odell Beckham. However, the talented young star lost control last week and won’t be playing this week after trying to knock Josh Norman out of the game. This could be the last season for Tom Coughlin despite winning two Super Bowls as he is the oldest head coach in the league and the Giants have not been consistent or good enough this season. In fairness, this team doesn’t have a lot of talent, and has particularly struggled on defence this year, so I will be curious to see what direction they take in the offseason.

This is a lot of points for the Vikings to cover, but under the circumstances I think they have enough to do it against a Giants team who don’t’ really have anything to play for any more.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings

Bengals @ Broncos (-3.5)

The Broncos have slipped in recent weeks. The defence was on another level earlier in the season, but needed to do better against the Steelers last week to get a win. That said, with turmoil at quarterback, and a running game that has been inconsistent, some might argue that they have done well to amass the record they have. It has been something of a transition year for the Broncos with a new coaching staff and offensive philosophy, but they look like they have found a serviceable replacement for Manning and I would expect them to resign Osweiler at the end of the season. They will be looking to hold onto a division lead and push on into the playoffs, but it is still possible for them to drop out of the playoffs altogether so welcoming a Bengals team missing their starting quarterback to Denver might be something of a relief.

The Bengals’ season has gone so well for much of the year, but the injury to Andy Dalton has really hampered their push for playoff success. The Bengals managed to get the win against the 49ers with a steady offensive performance, but it did not look easy and so it is hard to tell how they will go against an impressive Broncos defence. That said, the defence continues to play well despite the injuries in the secondary, and they have a chance to set a record for fewest points allowed in a sixteen game season. The aim for this season was always a playoff win, and a bye would give Andy Dalton an improved chance of being healthy and playing, but is hard to know if the Bengals will finally break the drought in their fifth straight try under Marvin Lewis given the circumstances.

I am always worried about the Bengals, which given their history is perhaps not surprising, but I am finding it hard to predict this game as we just don’t know what AJ McCarron is going to do. I’m going to reluctantly back the Broncos to cover, and I will be more than happy if my pessimism is proved to be ill-founded, but I suspect it isn’t.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 10

24 Thursday Dec 2015

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NFL

It’s our Christmas Special, so while you’re waiting for the jolly fat man to come down your chimney, listen to another one chatting with Gee about American Football! Including a discussion on how players must feel having to play over Christmas, a review of week 15, and our picks for week 16’s schedule.

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 10

Odell Beckham and Josh Norman on Coaching Tape, plus the Early Week 16 Picks

24 Thursday Dec 2015

Posted by gee4213 in Amateur Adventures in Film

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Carolina Panthers, Josh Norman, New York Giants, NFL, Oakland Raiders, Odell Beckham, Philadelphia Eagles, San Diego Chargers, Washington, Week 16 Picks

It was always my intention to look at the coaching tape of the matchup between Odell Beckham and Josh Norman as it was one of the most enticing prospects of the year coming into week fifteen. We were expecting to see a competition between two of the young stars of the NFL, with Beckham making breathtaking catches all through his short career and Norman being talking about as a candidate for defensive player of the year. I am going to focus on what I saw on tape, rather than go fully into all of the mess that has so dominated the post game coverage, but with Norman fined and Beckham suspended I cannot just ignore what went on after the whistle and sometimes during the play.

The first thing for me to say is that I can’t know what was said before or during the game, the amount of accusations thrown around after the game seems to be an attempt to distract from a spectacle that made neither player look good. However, there is plenty of blame to go around as there were plenty of signs that Beckham was not playing under control and neither team leaders nor coaches were able to bring him back from the edge. It is understandable that in such a physical game as football that players have to play with a fire, but there has to be a line that you don’t cross and Beckham hurt his team with a number of penalties. It is also disappointing that in 2015 we are still dealing with the questioning of a player’s manhood and the throwing around of homophobic slurs as accepted ways of trying to get into the opposition’s head. There is not the same organised chanting at football games in the States as there is over here in terms of songs and a terrace willing to say anything to put off the opposition, but the culture of masculinity is very similar and it is something that should be dismantled in a systematic way. Without going back and watching the game as broadcast it is hard for me to comment on what was going on between plays, but this was not what the NFL was hoping the matchup would look like going into the game.

Anyway, moving on to the game film, this game didn’t look to me quite as eventful as the highlights and the coverage has made it appear. I will be asking Dan about the game on the next podcast as I know he is intending to watch it, but in terms of what I could see on tape there were more snaps where Norman and Beckham lined up and not a lot happened than there were problems. The Giants move Beckham round the formation and bring him in motion to try to get him open. Meanwhile the Panthers played a mixture of zone and man, with Norman covering Beckham at times and others he was on the opposite sides of the field as both players lined up on either side of the formation.

We are used to seeing the spectacular catches and the impressive numbers for Odell Beckham, but he only had six catches in this game and a lot of the yards he did gain were wiped out by penalties he gave away. He also had a couple of drops, but what was striking on tape was his ability to get open. He is both quick and sudden, which enables him to often get open whether he is finding a way through zone coverage or in a one on one matchup. The touchdown he caught at the end of the game was from a lovely double move, that allowed him to get behind Norman to make the catch, and that wasn’t the only time he got behind Norman. There was a lovely deep post pattern that he ran in the third quarter creating a deep play opportunity, but Eli Manning couldn’t quite get the ball to him. The thing I will say about Beckham’s temperament in this game was that it was not just Norman that Beckham was petulant with, he ran into several safeties and other corners as the coverage rotated. I was also getting frustrated by his blocking in the running game as several times he bumped with a shoulder rather than truly engaging as a blocker. I don’t know how he is coached so it may be that this is what the team want him to do, but later in the game there was a snap where he engaged and turned his corner on a run play so he can do it. The egregious play to me was the running play where he went past Norman who did take a swipe at him, but Beckham came back down the field and clearly tried to take Norman out with a helmet to helmet hit. With the emphasis on player safety it was an outrageously dangerous play and you could easily argue that he should have been ejected from the game for that alone. It was hard to always see what was going on between snaps, but there was at least one play where part of an officiating crew put themselves between Beckham and Norman after the whistle had blown.

Focussing on Josh Norman, the coverage of him this season has been very positive, but looking at his play I would not say that he is quite the man on man lockdown corner that some would have you believe. That is not to say that he isn’t playing well as he really is, but the Panthers play a fair amount of zone but it looks different to the three deep zone with almost man corner play that you see if you were to watch Richard Sherman in Seattle. However, Norman is similar to Sherman in that he moves well and has the length to bother receivers and cause disruption. This is however, a great defence at all levels and on the all twenty-two you could see receivers passed smoothly between corners, safeties, and linebackers, as the receiver ran their route through the defence’s zones. Norman was clearly taking his chances to be physical where he could, and was called for his own unnecessary roughness penalties apart from the retaliation for the helmet to helmet hit. It was clear that he was niggling at Beckham for chunks of the game, and there was one play were he clearly just went for the head area of Beckham.

With one player suspended and another fined, neither has created a good look for the NFL. More worryingly for Beckham is that he clearly let things get to him and so he will see a lot more of this needling tactic as he is too good a receiver to cover conventionally, and has revealed a potential weakness that the rest of the league will see if they can exploit. Only time will tell if this will be a problem, but in what is one of the most team orientated of sports, Beckham will have to learn integrate his phenomenal talents into the team ethic if he wants to win games. As for Josh Norman, he will be watched closely, and let’s hope he can find the balance between being competitive and detrimental to his team.

And now onto the first picks of week sixteen that are immediately around Christmas day, with me managing to eek out another game on Dan last week.

Gee: Week 15 11-5 Overall 119-105
Dan: Week 15 10-6 Overall 110-114

Chargers @ Raiders (-5.5)

The Raiders have definitely made progress this season, but they are still making the mistakes of a young team. They lost to the Green Bay Packers last week, and still have plenty of areas that they need to develop, but in 2014 they drafted Khalil Mack and Derek Carr, then followed it up this year with Amari Cooper, so there is hope for a franchise that sat in the doldrums for too long that they can continue to build and develop. This is another team that could be on the move, although I’m not sure any team has the votes they require to get a move approved by the other owners, but given the games last week I expect this to be an emotional occasion in Oakland.

The Chargers got the win that so many players wanted in what was possibly the last game at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego. However, there is so much in flux for this team with it being up in the air where they will play next season, and likely who will coach them. They have been beset by injuries on the line, but they had problems with this last year as well, and they have a closing window given that as good as Philip Rivers has been, he is thirty-four.

In this game I think that the Chargers come back to Earth as they are not a good team, and with the Raiders at home for possibly the last time and them definitely heading in the right direction I think they will cover these points. It might also be another big day for Khalil Mack given the problems in pass protection that the Chargers have had all season.

Gee’s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Washington @ Eagles (-2.5)

There was a power struggle in the offseason at the Eagles, which Chip Kelly won, but I am not sure how much the total control of personnel has been of benefit. Initially I could see a plan in what he was doing, trusting his scheme on offence and focus his efforts on getting players for their defence, but the plan seemed to be ignored for some of his moves. However, a lot of talent has been shipped out over the last couple of seasons and it will be telling if he retains control over personnel and is given time to continue with his plan, or if some power is taken back or worse still if he is fired. On the field it has been a real mix with some good performances but nothing for them to really hang their hat on. The offence started of struggling, before they found a way to run the ball, but whilst high priced free agent DeMarco Murray might lead the team in rushing, he seems to have slipped down the pecking order and does not seem to fit the system. It appears that Sam Bradford is becoming more comfortable in the offence, but this is not the offence people were expecting to see coming into the year. More worrying is that the defence, which for much of the year looked like the stronger unit, has struggled in recent weeks and has given up forty points or more in three of the last five games.

This week the Eagles welcome a Washington team to Philadelphia who are currently a game clear at the top of the NFC East and who could clinch a playoff birth with a win in this game. It was not the most auspicious of starts for Jay Gruden in Washington, but you have to admire the way he stuck to his guns regarding the Robert Griffin situation and it would appear the starting quarterback question has been solved for now. The other thing that seems to have helped was the appointment of Scott McCloughan as GM, with his focus on building through the draft looking like it has been of benefit already, and I will be curious to see how they continue in the offseason. On the field the team has not excelled on offence or defence, although their special teams are ranked sixth in the league by DVOA. However, Kirk Cousins has managed to find a balance between willingness to make aggressive throws and protecting the ball. The team have played better in Washington than on the road, which makes me nervous about picking this game, but I do not trust the Eagles and if I am getting two and a half points then I am going to take them.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Washington

Buccaneers @ Rams, Amateur Adventures in Film, and Week 15 Picks

20 Sunday Dec 2015

Posted by gee4213 in Amateur Adventures in Film

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Aaron Donald, Arizona Cardinals, Case Keenum, Deone Bucannon, Gerard McCoy, Jameis Winston, Jeff Fisher, Lovie Smith, Mike Evans, NFL, St. Louis Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tavon Austin, Todd Gurley, Tyrann Mathieu, Week 15 Picks

It was a slightly odd Thursday night game given that if you were to look at the statistics on their own without the score, you would think that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers actually won the game, but in the end the Rams ran out convincing winners in what could be their last game in St Louis.

The Rams have now won two games straight and part of that turn around seems to be the change in offensive coordinator. Whilst the Buccaneers did an effective job of bottling up Todd Gurley, the Rams came with game plan that made the most of Tavon Austin’s ability with the ball in his hands, and an efficient passing game that gained two hundred and thirty-four yards from fourteen receptions out of seventeen attempts. I am not going to say that Case Keenum is an amazing quarterback, but this did look like a functional NFL offence, which it has not done for a lot of the season, and I will be as curious to see what this team does in the offseason with the construction of the roster as where the franchise will actually play its games.

The Buccaneers defence played well in the run game in terms of restricting Todd Gurley, which is not a surprise given that they were ranked fifth in rush defence by DVOA coming into this game. However, they were not that sure in their tackling, and had problems dealing with the shifty Austin. No one really stood out, although Gerard McCoy flashed, but he has not hit the lofty heights that we have come to expect given his performance in previous seasons. They have however, begun to look like they can make Lovie Smith’s Tampa Two defence effective, which seemed to be a real question earlier this season and they will be hoping to build on that next year.

The Buccaneers offence in contrast, had some good performances, but the yardage gained hides the fact that they got very little going in the first half, gave the ball away twice and could have lost the ball again if they had not recovered one of their fumbles. It was odd in that to start the game they tried to rely on their run game as they have much for the season, but whilst Doug Martin ran the ball effectively, Jameis Winston kept missing his receivers with throws that were too high. In fact Winston had this problem crop up through much of the game, but it was particularly prevalent in the early part of the game and led to difficulties maintaining drives. In the second half, and particularly in the fourth quarter the Buccaneers were able to get things going, and Winston was able to make some big plays with his arm, particularly to receiver Mike Evans who had an impressing one hundred and fifty-seven yard game from nine receptions, although he was targeted seventeen times. The one interception Winston did have was a bad read as he failed to take account of a dropping corner, but he has been much better in his first season than many feared and if they can get him some more options and improve his offensive line then the Buccaneers definitely have a quarterback for the foreseeable future.

There is no doubting the talent on the Rams defence, but it has rarely been able to get everyone playing well at the same time. The particularly impressive player for them in this game was Aaron Donald, who may not have had any sacks, but did get two tackles for a loss as well as three quarterback hits whilst causing all kinds of problems for the Buccaneers offensive line. It should not be possible for a defensive tackle as large as Donald to move as quickly as he does, but he also possesses the strength to shed blockers to make tackles in the run game, and in his second year is making a case to be included in the conversation with the other defensive greats.

In the end the Rams ran out comfortable winners in this one, but I am not sure it will be enough to save Jeff Fisher his job, whilst the improvement the Buccaneers have made this season should mean that Lovie Smith gets another year to continue the rebuilding job in Tamp Bay

I want to write a little about the coaching tape I watched this week before moving onto our picks for week fifteen. I was looking at the way that Cardinals use safeties Deone Bucannon and Tyrann Mathieu, which is pretty much how I outlined last week, but it is still impressive to see on tape.

For Bucannon, although listed as a safety he really does play as one of their linebackers, using his movement skills to avoid blocks and make plays. Not only did he force a fumble and recover it, but he was able to tackle Adrian Peterson in the backfield, and was second in tackles only to Tyrann Mathieu.

If Bucannon is exceptional because of the position he is playing given his size, then Tyrann Mathieu demonstrates an amazing flexibility in the way he is used around the Cardinals defence. He basically lines up as either a safety or slot corner, and is usually around the line of scrimmage, but from there he can exploit his athleticism either rushing towards the play, or drop into coverage. In the Cardinals blitz heavy scheme he frequently rushes from the slot corner position or from the line, and was able to get pressure on the QB multiple times. The pass play I mentioned in last week’s write up where Mathieu batted down a ball behind the line of scrimmage was actually coming off such a slot corner blitz, and given that Teddy Bridgewater was looking left as the ball was snapped, I would guess hat Mathieu either keyed off that or adjusted his blitz angle in case the ball came out early, and it was this that allowed him get a hand to the ball.

Overall what I appreciated about the Cardinals defensive scheme was that they have collected a number of good athletes and are putting them in a position to make the most of their physical gifts whilst giving themselves flexibility in an era where offences are becoming increasingly multiple and aggressive in the pass game. I don’t know if there are going to be other teams that copy them, but the principle of having that much coverage ability combined with aggressive pressure is one we may well see copied, if perhaps with different types of personnel.

Finally we go on to the rest of our week fifteen picks, with Dan and I both going 1-1 so far.

Falcons @ Jagaurs (-3.5)

The points scare me because despite the improvement of the Jaguars this season, they are still not reliable week to week, but they are coming off a win where they scored fifty points whilst the Falcons are on a horrendous run of losses. I don’t see the Falcons ending that run on the road in Jacksonville this week.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Jaguars

Bills @ Washington (+0.5)

It feels like I have been wrong about this Washington season all year, but with the Bills falling from playoff contention thanks to last week’s loss and their continued ill discipline which seems to be a feature of Rex Ryan’s teams, I think that Washington will win this game as they try to stay in the NFC East race. The worry is that Washington has been inconsistent on both sides of the ball, but they have been better at home and with something to play for I will take the half point that doesn’t really mean anything.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Bills

Bears @ Vikings (-5.5)

The Chicago Bears have been better than most thought they would be this season, but the Vikings put up a very credible performance against a very good Cardinals team in Arizona and will hopefully be healthier after the extra rest. Their defence has been good all year and was solid last week despite missing some of its best players, and they will want to get their season back on track in this divisional game and I think they will. They might not cover the points, but I think the Vikings are the better team so that’s the way I am going.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

Titans @ Patriots (-14.5)

The points make me pause, but the Titans are on the road and do not have the players around rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota to compete with the Patriots given the return of Rob Gronkowski and what he means to their offence. The Titans only scored one touchdown against the Jets last week, and that was a trick play, so I don’t see them doing much in their second game on the road in a row, so whilst I should pick the Titans because of the points, I just can’t bring myself to do it.

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

Texans @ Colts (-1.5)

The AFC South is in such a state that two teams with 6-7 records are playing for the division lead, with both of them starting backup quarterbacks. There is very little to hang your hat on in this game, but the Texans at least have JJ Watt and a defence that has been coming on in the second half of the season even if they did struggle against the Patriots last week, so that’s what I will put my trust in for this game.

Gee’s Pick: Texans
Dan’s Pick: Texans

Chiefs @ Ravens (+7.5)

The Chiefs are on one of the hottest streaks in the NFL at the moment, which is a testament to the job head coach Andy Reid did in keeping this team together through their 1-5 start that easily could have wrecked their season. The Ravens have been specialising in close games for much of the season, even if they had been losing most of them, but the injuries finally passed a point where they could compete and lost badly last week. I think that the Chiefs offence will be better this week for not playing in horrendous conditions, and will cover the points in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Panthers @ Giants (+5.5)

This game has one of the matchups of the year with Panther’s corner Josh Norman likely going up against Odell Beckham. There is a lot of buzz about how the Giants love playing these kinds of games and upsetting good teams, but this Giants team is not like the one that beat the Patriots in two Super Bowls. Those teams may have come good at the end of the year, but they also had a fearsome pass rush and more to hang their hat on than Eli Manning getting hot. Yes the Manning to Beckham connection is effective, but this week they go up against one of the best defences in the league, and whilst the injuries the Panthers suffered last week worry me, I don’t see the Giants really being able to compete. This probably means the Giants will win as it’s hard to predict that the Panthers really will go undefeated, but I’m not prepared to pick against them this week despite needing them to win by six points on the road.

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

Browns @ Seahawks (-14.5)

I feel like I am picking a lot of sides giving away a lot of points this week, and they surely can’t all come in, but despite the Browns getting a win last week, I don’t see them repeating the trick as they travel from Cleveland to Seattle. The Seahawks defence is still very good, and with their offence now finding an effective passing game I’m not even worried about the loss of rookie running back Thomas Rawls in this one. I’m backing the Seahawks to run out convincing winners at home.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Packers @ Raiders (+3.5)

I think I am changing my mind on this one in that on the podcast I said I was not convinced by the Packers, having had false dawns before this season in terms of things turning consistently round on offence, and the Raiders have played well for large parts of the season even if they do make young team mistakes. However, with Mike McCarthy taking back play calling duties last week, and a faith that they will not allow Khalil Mack to get five sacks like the Broncos did last week, I think the Packers may well cover this one even if the half point does make me nervous.

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Bengals @ 49ers (+4.5)

The 49ers defence seems to play better at home that than they do on the road, but they just lost to the Cleveland Brown and their rush defence is near the bottom of the league. I know what Hue Jackson is saying about the game plan this week, and to some extent I believe him as I didn’t think it was a bad display by AJ McCarron against the Steelers last week, but a young quarterback’s best friend is the run game, which fits the tactical situation of this game and so I think the Bengals will run on the 49ers a lot. It may well be a close game, but I am choosing to take a page out of Dan’s giant book of optimism and back my team to cover this week.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

Broncos @ Steelers (-6.5)

This line is tricky for me in that whilst the Broncos offence stuttered last week, they still have a really good defence. The Steelers have a great set of receivers, and this should be a really good game, but the Broncos could well slow the Steelers down. I think they can for a while, but this Steelers team are just so good at the moment, and whilst I think I would pick differently if this game was in Denver, I am backing the Steelers in Pittsburgh to win and maintain the pressure on the Bengals because that’s what happens in the AFC North.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Dolphins @ Chargers (-1.5)

There have been comments coming out of the Chargers locker room that they are aware this could be the team’s last game in San Diego and they are desperate for a win. I think the Dolphins might be close to being a good team than some would have you believe, but they have not been good this season. However, I am not sure the Chargers should be favourites against many given how their season has been, and there has been very little home field advantage for them this season so I will join Dan back on Dolphins Island this week.

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Cardinals @ Eagles (+3.5)

The Cardinals continue to get wins with a good defence and explosive offence, whilst the Eagles have been uneven all season and I simply don’t trust them. So even thought the Cardinals are on the road in Philadelphia, I am backing them to cover the points in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Lions @ Saints (-2.5)

The Lions lost for a second week in the row, and it seems that being eliminated from the playoffs has stifled their little recovery. They are still playing better than they were, but then again so are the Saints. Their defence was not as bad last week as it has been all season, and they ran out convincing winners against the Buccaneers. This leaves me in something of a quandary, particularly as the Buccaneers were pretty convincingly beaten by the Rams on Thursday, but I am going for the team with the better record who are playing at home whilst keeping my fingers crossed.

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Saints

The Wrong Football

~ A UK American Football fan writes about the game he loves

Author Archives: gee4213

Heroes, and the Divisional Weekend

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 13

The Start of the Offseason, and Wildcard Weekend

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 12

The End of the Regular Season, Aaron Donald on Coaching Tape, and Week 17 Picks

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 11

Week 16 Picks

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 10

Odell Beckham and Josh Norman on Coaching Tape, plus the Early Week 16 Picks

Buccaneers @ Rams, Amateur Adventures in Film, and Week 15 Picks