So I had a better week, but I’m still rooted to the bottom of the table whilst 3D extended his lead, but as he’s in the 99^th percentile in the ESPN game perhaps I shouldn’t be too upset to be trailing, but I’m going to keep fighting with three weeks left.

Dan’s Dad:	Week 14:   12-4	Overall:   119-89
Dan:	Week 14:   9-7	Overall:   111-97
Gee:	Week 14:   9-7	Overall:   109-99

Jets @ Ravens (-14.5)

I’ve been on the road, come home and voted but running all kinds of late so I’m going to keep this short and sweet. The Ravens are a good team, the Jets are not. I’m seeing the Jets getting even more points than this online and so I’m picking the good team even if Lamar Jackson is on the injury report as what I’m seeing points to it not being a big deal. Fingers crossed tonight for more than one reason.

Gee’s Pick:     Ravens
Dan’s Pick:     Jets

Week 9 Trivia

‘Week 14 is consigned to the archive and we stand ready for the final 3 weeks of the regular season and the maelstrom of the play-offs and Super Bowl. There is still, though, a lot to be decided in the coming weeks as only 3 teams have actually clinched anything.

The Picks returned a healthy 3 points between us ,which is above average despite there being some challenging spreads which caught us out. Interestingly our aversion to getting Thursday right has returned and a similar issue blights the Monday games also. There isn’t a modest way to report the scores this week as while Dan and Gee brought back a creditable 9 each my streak of good form continued with 12 to give me an 8 point advantage.  I don’t share the view that it’s all over as I’ve seen/had some calamitous collapses and 3 games can see a big swing.

The trivia though is most definitely wide open with just a point between the brains trust so the remaining games offer many potential twists and turns. This week I asked

Prior to moving to Indianapolis in 1984, what city did the Colts call home?

The answer which both of them aced was, of course Baltimore. 

Well there has to be the odd easy question. This week, however, who knows?

For Week 15 we find ourselves in Jacksonville and what I’d like to ask is:

In how many consecutive seasons did the Jaguars make the playoffs in their first five years in the league?

Next weeks report may be a little shorter than usual as having set the Jaguars question I should probably leave the country for a while and writing by a pool in Dubai is tough. Still someone had to do it!’

I am still annoyed about Thursday Night’s pick because if Dan and I have learnt anything about picking games in the last five years, it is that your first instinct is always better than changing your mind. Now, that is totally un-scientific and could even be wrong and some kind of confirmation bias, but it is yet another thing to account for when picking games. Yes we’re getting to the end of the regular season and yes, I am pretty competitive so first the trivia question and then the picks as I’m running out of time to catch up.

‘Prior to moving to Indianapolis in 1984, what city did the Colts call home?’

I know this one as the Baltimore Colts were famously taken to Indianapolis, but the Colts’ marching band stayed together and played on until the original Cleveland Browns franchise was moved to Baltimore to became the Ravens.

‘Not happy at dropping 2 points last week, and I think Gee will know this one too as it’s quite an easy one. Instantly knew the answer this week – the Colts moved from Baltimore to Indianapolis, and were replaced by the Ravens in the mid 90s and impressively won the super bowl within about 4 or 5 years! I look forward to receiving my bonus points for all of that!’
Panthers @ Falcons (-2.5)

The Carolina Panthers let go of head coach Ron Rivera this week and there is often a new coach bounce, but not as pronounced as in other sports as you can’t overhaul an American football team in the same way you can a football team as to a large extent you are tied to your playbook and personnel. Why do I mention this, because I don’t know what to do with this game. The Atlanta Falcons had a brief two week recovery but have lost two further games to fall to 3-9 but the Panthers’ current four game losing streak that includes last week’s loss to Washington was the last straw for David Tepper and why Rivera list his job. One of these losing streaks is likely to give and the Falcons are actually the better ranked team by DVOA, the points make me nervous but in a divisional game I’m going to reluctantly grab the home team but who knows…

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Falcons
Ravens @ Bills (+5.5)

This is my matchup of the week as the Buffalo Bills and their sixth ranked defence by DVOA welcomes the Baltimore Ravens who currently head up the DVOA rankings and look like the best team in the NFL. I am really looking forward to this game and the Ravens can put up points against anyone but the Bills are 9-3 for a reason and whilst I think the Ravens are more likely to win, I like getting this many points at home as the Bills defence is really good.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Ravens
Bengals @ Browns (-8.5)

I’m not getting carried away by last week’s win for the Cincinnati Bengals, and this week they are on the road taking on the Cleveland Browns, but this is a lot of points for a 5-7 team to be laying when possibly the only thing we know about the Browns is they can’t be trusted. The Browns absolutely have the talent to cover this line and may well do so but I’m not picking it.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals
Broncos @ Texans (-9.5)

The Denver Broncos were a little lucky to beat the Chargers last week and now travel to face the Houston Texans coming off a win against the Patriots. I like the Texans to win this game as they are the better team by eye test and DVOA but this line makes me nervous. The Texans have a top ten offence by DVOA but their defence ranks twenty-fifth, whilst the Broncos have damn near the reverse offensive/defensive rankings and have lost four games by ten points. I’m going to grab the points and hope.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Texans
Lions @ Vikings (-13.5)

The Detroit Lions have lost five straight and may have extra rest having played on Thanksgiving, but a road trip to the Minnesota Vikings is not the kind of game to get right when you’re starting quarterback is still recovering from an injury. This is a lot of points, but the Vikings still have a good home field advantage and even missing Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook hurting his shoulder last week, I’m going to back them in this one and hope I’m not misjudging these teams.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Lions
Washington @ Packers (-12.5)

I imagine this line is based in part on the Green Bay Packers big win against the Giants last week, but whilst the franchise is still a mess, Washington come into this game on a two-game winning streak. I’m not expecting an upset but the Packers have only covered this size line twice this season and I think Washington can keep the game close.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Washington
Colts @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

I hate this line and game from a picks perspective as these two teams are next to each other in the DVOA rankings with the Indianapolis Colts struggling the last few weeks thanks to injury and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers playing inconsistently all season but have won three of their last four games. I don’t have a strong read on this game at all and so I’m going to grab the team I trust a little more, but I have no idea if this is a good idea.

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Colts
Dolphins @ Jets (-5.5)

The New York Jets lost to the Bengals last week and looked bad doing it as the injuries finally became too much. I don’t entirely trust my gut on this, but Brian Flores is definitely a good coach having got three wins with a team that ranks dead last in DVOA and a fair way behind the Bengals in thirty-first place. I think this is too many points for a team who just lost to the Bengals to be laying and so I’m going to pick the Dolphins for another week.

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins
49ers @ Saints (-2.5)

This is a cracking game that pits two of the best NFC teams together and it’s a tricky one to pick as the San Francisco 49ers have won with a ferocious defence and enough offence. The Saints have a really good, well coached team and have the better quarterback but I think the 49ers might be better and getting this many points I’m going to grab them and hope.

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: Saints
Chargers @ Jaguars (+2.5)

I have no idea about this game as the LA Chargers continue to struggle and Philip Rivers look bad, but the Jacksonville Jaguars have no real identity and are going back to rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew as Nick Foles failed to give them a spark after coming back from injury. The Chargers are the experts in close losses and whilst I can definitely see them winning this one, I’m going to grab the home team getting points even if what I want to do is run a mile from picking this game.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Chargers
Titans @ Raiders (+2.5)

I might be overreacting to the two-game losing streak of the Oakland Raiders and the turn around of the Tennessee Titans since putting Ryan Tannehill in the starting lineup, but I think the Titans are the better team. The DVOA rankings agree with me and the this line is more advantageous than the ESPN one so I’m going to go with the Titans. Watch the Raiders win this one now…

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Titans
Chiefs @ Patriots (-3.5)

The New England Patriots were fighting illness as well as playing the Texans last week, but one of the safer picks in the NFL is the Patriots coming off a loss. However, there are real problems with the Pats’ offence so I wonder how the Pats as a team keeps up with a Kansas City Chiefs team that has Patrick Mahomes back from injury and playing well. This could well be a big mistake as the Pats defence is playing really well too, and the Chiefs defence is only ranked fifteenth by DVOA but this is one where I’m going to trust my gut rather than second guess myself and I just hope that betting against Belichick and Brady isn’t going to look too foolish tomorrow.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Patriots
Steelers @ Cardinals (+2.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are winning with tough defence and rookie quarterback Devlin “Duck” Hodges. They travel to face an Arizona Cardinals team who have now lost five straight. I’m not sure if the Steelers can make the playoffs as barring a big fall off from the Bills there looks to be only one wildcard spot left open in the AFC but I think the Steelers believe they can get there and I think despite their offensive struggles they cover this line.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers
Seahawks @ Rams (+1.5)

The LA Rams got back to winning ways last week with a convincing performance against the Arizona Cardinals but I still don’t trust them. The defence may well be third in the league by DVOA, but the problems have not been solved on offence and the Seattle Seahawks have three more wins for a reason. Divisional games can be funny and so I’m not rulling out the Rams cover or win, but I think there is a real gap between these teams and it would take more points than this to make me pick the other way.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks
Giants @ Eagles (-8.5)

This used to be one of the marquee matchups in the NFL, but not this year. It has been a while since the New York Giants were anything but bad, and this week injury has forced them back into starting Eli Manning and whilst he has handled his benching with class, it has been a several seaons since he has been a good quarterback. That said, the Philadelphia Eagles have not been good this season either, but interestingly are ranked tenth by DVOA and so this line is actually causing me problems. I would be surprised if the Giants won, even if the Eagles have lost three straight and we have to go back to week eight for a convincing win for the Eagles. However, whilst the line is big, it is actually a full point less than I’m seeing online and I just can’t trust the Giants.

Gee’s Pick: Eagles
Dan’s Pick: Ealges

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

I now only have six weeks to make up the deficit and get back into the race for the picks competition, but first there is the minor matter of the trivia competition where once again I am losing…

‘In the 1996 season, quarterback Brett Favre set an NFC record when he threw 39 touchdown passes in regular season play. Who was the previous record holder?’

I love this question, but I don’t just know the answer. However, my informed guess is that this is going to be one of the great pre-Farve passers, but it has to be from a relatively recent season as if you go back to say the seventies the game was just different and the ball simply wasn’t thrown that much. Under these parameters, you might be tempted by either Steve Young or Joe Montana in the eighties, but I am going to plump for the hall of famer who never won the Super Bowl, or even got back there after his second season and so my informed guess would be Dan Marino – possibly in that 1984 season.

‘Tough one this week and it’s going to need some figuring out. I know the record has been broken since then as I believe Mahomes got about 50-odd last year. If Favre broke the record in the 1996 season it’ll have been someone who played before then, so you’ve got people like Dan Marino, Joe Montana, John Elway… I’ll go with Marino this week. If in doubt, stick with the Dolphins! (Make a note of that mantra, kids!)’

Buccaneers @ Falcons (-4.5)

This is a tricky game to pick as the Atlanta Falcons are on a two game win streak since their bye and look a team transformed, but whilst I expect them to win you just never know what you are going to get out of Jameis Winston. There is also the argument that divisional games are funny and this line is a point larger than I’m seeing as the consensus, which all point to me grabbing the points but I have been burnt several times by the Bucs and so I’m not leaning the other way this week.

Gee’s Pick:        Falcons
Dan’s Pick:        Falcons

Broncos @ Bills (-4.5)

The Denver Broncos took a big lead against the Vikings last week and beat the Cleveland Browns in week nine, but they are 3-7 for a reason and rank eighteenth overall by DVOA with only their defence being in the top ten. The reason this game is awkward to pick is that the Buffalo Bills may have the inverse 7-3 record but they actually rank twenty-fifth by DVOA and so whilst I think the Bills will win at home – this feels like a lot of points. However, that was what I said last week before the Bills convincingly beat the Dolphins. Having been proved wrong last week and not trusting the Broncos offence I’m going to take the Bills, but I am not convinced.

Gee’s Pick:        Bills
Dan’s Pick:        Bills

Giants @ Bears (-6.5)

The Chicago Bears are struggling on offence and all the talk at the moment is surrounding the problems that Mitchell Trubisky is having trying to run the offence in his third season. A game where they welcome the lowly New York Giants might be just the tonic they need, and whilst winning the game by a clear touchdown seems like a big ask, in three of their four wins the Bears have done just that whilst the Giants have only managed to win or be within seven four times this season. What does this mean? I don’t know and I am not sure that I actually want to do this, but I am going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Giants
Dan’s Pick:        Giants

Steelers @ Bengals (+6.5)

The Cincinatti Bengals’ defence looked better last week, and the focus on running the ball now they are starting rookie quarterback Ryan Finley has increased the running production but this hasn’t got the Bengals a win. This week the Bengals will host a rested but possibly distracted Pittsburgh Steelers team who will be minus their starting centre after last week’s fight with the Browns. I think this will likely be a low scoring affair and for that reason only I’m going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Bengals
Dan’s Pick:        Steelers

Dolphins @ Browns (-10.5)

The Miami Dolphins had been competitive for a number of weeks, but got beat badly last week. However, traveling to face the ill-disciplined Browns who will be missing Myles Garrett and so minus their best defensive player, I fancy the Dolphins to keep this game within eleven.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Dolphins

Lions @ Washington (+3.5)

The Detriot Lions might be playing with a backup quarterback and have only won two more games than Washingon, but I think there is a big difference between the teams and DVOA agrees so for me there’s only one way to go.

Gee’s Pick:        Lions
Dan’s Pick:        Lions

Raiders @ Jets (+2.5)

The New York Jets may have beaten Washington even more convincingly last week than they beat the Gaints in week ten, but that doesn’t mean they have magically turned things around. This week they face a team in the playoff hunt, who may have played a surprisingly tight game against the Bengals, but the Raiders won three games straight at home and I fancy them to win by at least a field goal in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Raiders
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Panthers @ Saints (-9.5)

The Carolina Panthers have only gone 1-4 since their bye and got beaten heavily by a rejuvenated Falcons team last week. It seems that Kyle Allen has struggled more since his opening four game win streak and this week they travel to New Orleans Saints team who made their own statement last week to get back to winning ways. This may be a divisional game, but I expect the Saints to win and with the 35.8% between these teams by DVOA a big win does not seem unlikely. Part of me wants to err on the side of caution but I need to pick some points up somewhere and so I’m going to back the Saints – very nervously…

Gee’s Pick:        Saints
Dan’s Pick:        Saints

Seahawks @ Eagles (-1.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles are really struggling, if not already out of the playoff hunt and so can ill afford to lose again. However, the Seattle Seahawks have if anything been better on the road this season and I fancy them to win this game given how well they are playing.

Gee’s Pick:        Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

Jaguars @ Titans (-3.5)

This is an intriguing matchup for me as the Tennessee Titans have gone on a run since moving Ryan Tannehill into the starting lineup and he has won three out of  this four games he started. The Titans could still drag themselves into the division race but that will likely involve winning all four of their division games left. Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars need to find out what the difference between quarterbaks Nick Foles and Gardner Minshew really is. The Jaguars have won and lost in pairs this season, but such patterns are curious anomalies rather than something you can actually account for. If it feels like I am stalling, it is because I am, there is not much between these two teams in DVOA and that extra half point makes me hesitate but I have more faith in what the Titans are doing right now so I am going to reluctantly back the Titans.

Gee’s Pick:        Titans
Dan’s Pick:        Jaguars

Cowboys @ Patriots (-6.5)

This is a trap game. The New England Patriots have been surviving their problems on offence thanks to stellar defensive play and opportunistic special teams and with Tom Brady surfacing with a elbow injury and this number of points I am tempted to pick against them. The problem with that is the Cowboys’ inconsistency and the pick relying on Jason Garrett to be competitive with Bill Belichick. Still, I said I needed big swings to get back into contention and with Brady already struggling before surfacing on the injury report lets see if the Cowboys can put a performance together and keep it within seven.

Gee’s Pick:        Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:        Patriots

Packers @ 49ers (-3.5)

This is one of the matchups of the week as the Green Bay Packers take their 8-2 record on the road to face the San Francisco 49ers. The problem for the Packers could be that whilst their defence has been better, their rush defence is only ranked twenty-eight in the league and going against the 49ers running game they could really struggle. The 49ers have only lost one game, and have established themselves as one of the teams to beat, but when you have Aaron Rodgers and a competent defence you always have a chance and so I’m gong to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Packers
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Ravens @ Rams (+3.5)

The LA Rams really need this win, but I think they are in trouble on offence and so despite them having a top ten defence, they have been grinding out wins here and there. The Baltimore Ravens have me totally convinced now their defence is playing better and complementing their fearsome offence. This is a pretty big line to be giving up to last season’s NFC Super Bowl team, but I think the Ravens keep rolling in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Ravens
Dan’s Pick:        Ravens

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Time to find out if I can get back into the picks competition, but let’s start with the trivia competition where Dan also has a strong lead.

‘What highly touted player spent his entire 9 year career with the Detroit Lions after he was selected as the 2nd overall pick in the 2007 NFL Draft?’

So having failed miserably to spot the theme, there’s just this week’s question to deal with and I’m very happy with this one as I am sure the answer is Calvin Johnson.

‘Ok, I know this one, but I think Gee will too so I’m not sure it’ll have much impact on the lead unfortunately. Retiring after 9 years would have meant him retiring in 2016 and I remember discussing on the pod how it seemed too early for this guy to retire – the answer is Calvin ‘Megatron’ Johnson.’

Falcons @ Panthers (-5.5)

The Atlanta Falcons looked like a different team coming off a bye, beating the Saints convincing, but the question is whether this turnaround is sustainable and not just a divisional blip. The Falcons are playing the Carolina Panthers who lost to the Packers last week and whilst I’m not sure the Falcons can manage a repeat win, this is too many points for me to lay on the Panthers.

Gee’s Pick:        Falcons
Dan’s Pick:        Falcons

Bills @ Dolphins (+5.5)

The Buffalo Bills are a confounding team as they are the twenty-fourth ranked team by overall DVOA and yet they currently are in a wildcard spot. They travel to face the now two win Miami Dolphins and whilst I can see the Bills winning, this is once again too many points for me to lay.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Dolphins

Cowboys @ Lions (+4.5)

I was totally caught out last week as the Detroit Lions’ quarterback Matthew Stafford could not play as he has a fracture of his transverse processes in his back. A fracture of the back always sounds scary, but these will be playing in a few weeks, but not right now. The Dallas Cowboys are not a team I like to predict as they often seem to be less than the sum of their parts this season, but facing a backup quarterback I like them in this one where I have seen the line as high a +7 for the Lions.

Gee’s Pick:        Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:        Cowboys

Broncos @ Vikings (-10.5)

I hate this line as the Denver Broncos have been really unreliable, and whilst rested and coming of a win in week nine you really can’t trust them. However, whilst I expect the Minnesota Vikings to win, I’m not sure I trust them to cover this line given that they have not exactly been consistent performers either. In the end. I’m going to grab the points in this one as the Broncos defence has got itself back into the top ten by DVOA and the Vikings will be missing Adam Thielen as he tries to get his hamstring healthy.

Gee’s Pick:        Broncos
Dan’s Pick:        Broncos

Jaguars @ Colts (-2.5)

This is a game that I would love to avoid as the Indianapolis Colts might be getting Jaoby Brissett back, but have injuries at receiver whilst the Jacksonville Jaguars look to be starting Nick Foles after he recovered from his broken collar bone. There are so many variables, no real help from the number, and there is only 0.9% between them in overall DVOA so I feel like I need to get hold of a picking pin. The nearest I can get is that the Colts only need to win by a field goal to cover and they are at home so that’s where I’m going but this game could go either way…

Gee’s Pick:        Colts
Dan’s Pick:        Jaguars

Saints @ Buccaneers (+5.5)

This divisional game is curious one as the New Orleans Saints will be looking to bounce back against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers having lost to the Falcons last week, but the Bucs have been frequently competitive thanks to the peaks of Jameis Winston and a quality receiving group. However, the unpredictable thing here is what Saints team we are getting and how many turnovers is Winston going to be responsible for. I’m going to grab the home underdog and hope, but this could be a big mistake.

Gee’s Pick:        Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:        Saints

Jets @ Washington (-1.5)

There is very little to rely on here as Washington have been bad all years, whilst the Jets got a second win last week as they announced that Adam Gase will be the coach next year. This being the New York Jets I don’t know if that is actually true, but given the absence of home advantage in Washington I am going to reluctantly pick the Jets.

Gee’s Pick:        Jets
Dan’s Pick:        Jets

Texans @ Ravens (-4.5)

This should be a cracking game that pits two of the more exciting quarterback against each other, The worry for the Houston Texans is having traded away Jadeveon Clowney in the off-season and lost JJ Watt for the season to injury their front seven is not looking nearly as strong and the Baltimore Ravens are just rolling at the moment. There was no let down for the Ravens against the Bengals last week and Lamar Jackson is playing like the MVP candidate he is. The Texans have had a bye week to prepare for Jackson, and given that Deshaun Watson is pretty good with his legs as well there can be informed internal discussions about stopping a running quarterback, but the Texans are too reliant on the spectacular on offence so I’m going to take the Ravens despite the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Ravens
Dan’s Pick:        Texans

Cardinals @ 49ers (-13.5)

I think this line is off. I do think that the San Francisco 49ers will get back to winning ways but on a short week having lost to the Seahawks on Monday I find it hard to see them beating the Arizona Cardinals by two clear touchdowns given how competitive the Cardinals have been.

Gee’s Pick:        Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:        Cardinals

Bengals @ Raiders (-10.5)

I want to pick the Cincinnati Bengals as this is a big line, but even if their offence does improve with Ryan Finley starting his second game at quarterback, I have no faith in a defence that just cut Preston Brown and has real problems at linebacker. I would love to be proven wrong, but I am not going to pick the Bengals until I see them keep it close.

Gee’s Pick:        Raiders
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Patriots @ Eagles (+3.5)

This line is horrible as the New England Patriots always respond after a loss and have had a bye to prepare for this trip to the Philadelphia Eagles, but there are problems with the Patriots offence this year as they can’t run the ball. The Eagles are still a top ten team by DVOA despite their injury problems, and I’m really tempted to grab the points at home but I’ve just been bitten too many times betting against the Patriots to do it this time.

Gee’s Pick:        Patriots
Dan’s Pick:        Patriots

Bears @ Rams (-6.5)

Both the Chicago Bears and the LA Rams are struggling on offence, although for different reasons yet both look to be slipping out of the playoffs this season. Given the problem with the Rams’ offensive line you can see Khalil Mack wrecking this game and the Rams have too many other injuries on offence for me to back them to win by a touchdown.

Gee’s Pick:        Bears
Dan’s Pick:        Rams

Chiefs @ Chargers (+3.5)

This Monday night marquee matchup is not quite what it looked like when drawn up as the LA Chargers have been hit by injuries and for first time Philip Rivers hasn’t been able to carry on regardless. This could be a spectacular game as the Kansas City Chiefs finally have all their big names on offence healthy, but the defence is just plain bad. The Chiefs can’t afford many more losses, yet alone a divisional one and so despite them losing to the Titans last week, I’m going to back them on the road against the Chargers.

Gee’s Pick:        Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:        Chiefs

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Time for me to get back on the horse and see if I can get; myself back into contention in the picks competition, but first there’s the minor matter of trivia competition.

‘Bronco’s Peyton Manning along with Brett Favre are the only 2 QB’s to have achieved what?’

So this is a trickier question, but I think the answer is that they are the only two quarterbacks to get to the Conference Championship game with two different franchises, with Farve doing it with the Packers and Vikings, whilst Manning managed it with the Colts and Broncos.

It is my week to be flummoxed but the trivia theme, I’m sure I’m going to kick myself when we finally find out what it is. As for Dan:

‘Absolutely wracking my brain trying to work out the link between Peyton Manning and Brett Favre – I really feel like I should know this but nothing is coming to mind at all. I’m going to say “they’re both players who I wish I’d seen live” and that way there’s no way I can be wrong!

On the theme, the only thing I have noticed is that the questions are all about different teams running alphabetically – i.e. with this week’s being Denver, I’m sure next week’s question will be about the Detroit Lions, and the following week will be the Green Bay Packers… etc. Let’s go with that!’

Falcons @ Saints (-12.5)

It looks like the Atlanta Falcons will be getting Matt Ryan back from his ankle sprain but even with them being rested coming off a bye it is hard to trust this 1-7 squad, particularly with the defence being ranked thirtieth by DVOA. Given the Saints are coming off their own bye and have been beating teams for fun I’m going to take the Saints.

Gee’s Pick:        Saints
Dan’s Pick:        Saints

Bills @ Browns (-2.5)

The Cleveland Browns inspire no trust at the moment and so whilst I have been hesitant in the past about the Buffalo Bills’ offence, when I’m getting points I’m going to back the team I think is definitely better. On any given Sunday anything can happen, but I feel comfortable this is the more likely result.

Gee’s Pick:        Bills
Dan’s Pick:        Bills

Lions @ Bears (-2.5)

The Chicago Bears are really struggling, and I have learned my lesson from last week. The Bears probably can’t help but gain more yards this week, but with the quarterback situation being what it is I have to go with the Detroit Lions, even if they are struggling to win, they have always been competitive.

Gee’s Pick:        Lions
Dan’s Pick:        Lions

Ravens @ Bengals (+9.5)

I’m hoping that the Cincinnati Bengals’ offence shows something this week with Ryan Finley getting his first NFL regular season start, but I have no faith in the defence being able to contain the Ravens’ running game. There has been some talk of a let down game for the Ravens having beaten the Patriots last week, but in this division matchup I fear that things won’t get much better for the Bengals.

Gee’s Pick:        Ravens
Dan’s Pick:        Ravens

Chiefs @ Titans (+3.5)

It looks like the Kansas City Chiefs could get Patrick Mahomes back this week, but I trust Andy Reid to keep the Chiefs competitive whoever lines up under centre. I can’t quite say the same for the Tennessee Titans, who look to have a more functional offence with Ryan Tannehill starting at quarterback but I’m not sure they have enough to win this game. I have seen the line as high as six points to the Titans so I’m going make a value play on the better team and hope.

Gee’s Pick:        Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:        Chiefs

Giants @ Jets (+2.5)

It is a strange world where the New York Giants are giving points on the road against anyone, except this the home stadium for both teams and the New York Jets are currently imploding. I don’t really want to pick at all in this game, but I am reluctantly going to back the Giants as they only need a field goal to cover this and the Jets lost to the Dolphins last week.

Gee’s Pick:        Giants
Dan’s Pick:        Giants

Cardinals @ Buccaneers (-4.5)

This is a sneaky intriguing game as the Arizone Cardinals have been relatively competitive in Kliff Kingsbury’s first NFL season, and it looks as if the pairing of him and quarterback Kyler Murray have a future, but the roster still needs a lot of work. The Buccaneers have played well in stretches, but Jameis Winston just cannot seem to stop himself from giving the ball away in clusters. This line feels a little high considering that the Bucs are 2-6 so I’m going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:        Buccaneers

Dolphins @ Colts (-10.5)

Nevermind the Miami Dolphins getting a win last week, they have been competitive for a few weeks now and with the Indianapolis Colts missing Jacoby Brissett due to an MCL sprain and continuing to have kicking problems I am going to grab the points. I’m not saying the Colts can’t win or beat this line, the Dolphins are after all resetting their roster, but this is too many points for me to be laying with the Colts.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Dolphins

Panthers @ Packers (-5.5)

The good news for the Carolina Panthers is that Kyle Allen bounced back from his awful performance against the 49ers and they got the win last week. The good news for the Packers is that they are back in Green Bay and they have a chance to get back to winning ways after an awful performance in LA against the Chargers last week. I still think the Packers are going to make trouble in the playoffs, and I can see them winning this game but I think this is too many points to be laying against the Panthers.

Gee’s Pick:        Panthers
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Rams @ Steelers (+3.5)

I do not trust the LA Rams, who are having a difficult season that largely look to be down to problems on the offensive line and although they have stabilised over recent week, they have a tough schedule coming up. This week they travel to face a Pittsburgh Steelers team who have got themselves back to 4-4 having lost their opening three games and four of their first five. I’m not sure how much I trust the Steelers given their injuries on offence but getting this many points at home feels like a good spot to me, even if the Rams are coming off a bye.

Gee’s Pick:        Steelers
Dan’s Pick:        Steelers

Vikings @ Cowboys (-2.5)

The Minnesota Vikings could have won last week, and certainly should have covered if it were not for a missed extra performance, but the play of Kirk Cousins concerns me as he threw wayward passes for a lot of that game and once again will be missing Adam Thielen after he reaggravated his hamstring injury. The Dalla Cowboys have seemingly struggled to put everything together at the same time, and their defence doesn’t seem to be living up to expectations but they are fourth in the league by DVOA for a reason and I like them in this spot.

Gee’s Pick:        Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:        Cowboys

Seahawks @ 49ers (-6.5)

This is definitely the game of the week for me, as the unbeaten San Francisco 49ers welcome a Seattle Seahawks team who are only one win behind them in the division. The Seahawks have managed this mostly on the back of excellent play from Russell Wilson who has been excelling in making things happen in the passing game, in fact he’s been doing so well that they lead the league in passing offence DVOA. The weakness however is the uncharacteristically poor Seattle defence who are currently twenty-seventh by DVOA. The 49ers sit atop the over DVOA rankings, have the second best defence according to DVOA, and Jimmy Garoppolo had a great game last week. I think this game should be really competitive and I think this line is too high. I could be proven spectacularly wrong as either team could win big, but I’m going to back the Seahawks to keep this contest within a touchdown.

Gee’s Pick:        Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

I’m running a little late today so I need to rush through the picks and trivia a bit. Firstly we were asked:

‘Which Dallas quarterback was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2006?’

Now, I think this one is relatively straight forward as I believe it is quarterback turned commentator Troy Aikman.

As for theme, I’m having a thought from something that Dan’s Dad mentioned in his weekly write up that posted on Thursday – so I’m going to go with all time records. I haven’t got time to go through every week’s answers but the Bears have the all time number of wins for a franchise, the Dolphins are the only team to go undefeated and win a Super Bowl, Jim Kelly has the most Super Bowl losses as quarterback and so on…

‘Ah, the first one in a few weeks which I have some degree of comfort in! I believe the QB inducted back then was Troy Aikman. That’s my guess anyway.

And still nothing on the theme!’

Texans @ Jaguars (+2.5)

Our final London game of this season sees the Jacksonville Jaguars hosting the Houston Texans at Wembley and given the Jags’s experience at playing in London and the Texans coming off a week where they lost JJ Watt I’m going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:        Texans

Washington @ Bills (-9.5)

I don’t like this line as whilst I like the Bills, I don’t trust their offence whilst Washington have managed to cover the last two weeks, but one of them was only thanks to the weather. Still, Washington have some extra rest coming into this game and so I’m nervously going to back Washington to cover the big line.

Gee’s Pick:        Washington
Dan’s Pick:        Bills

Bears @ Eagles (-4.5)

What do I do with the Chicago Bears getting these many points against a Philadelphia Eagles team who played better and got the win last week? The answer as they are fairly close by DVOA is grab the points and hope.

Gee’s Pick:        Bears
Dan’s Pick:        Eagles

Titans @ Panthers (-3.5)

I was not expecting the Carolina Panthers to give up fifty-one points to the 49ers last week, so they will be looking to get back on track against a Tennessee Titans team who are on their own two game winning streak having switched to starting Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. I can see this being a competitive game but I’m leaning towards the Panthers getting things back on track.

Gee’s Pick:        Panthers
Dan’s Pick:        Panthers

Colts @ Steelers (+1.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers have won two games and three out of the last four, but two of the teams they beat don’t have a win yet this season and the Chargers are riven by injury. Meanwhile, despite their franchise quarterback retiring in the off-season the Indianapolis Colts are 5-2 and I’m so impressed with the job Frank Reich and his staff have done that I’m backing them in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Colts
Dan’s Pick:        Colts

Vikings @ Chiefs (-2.5)

This is a straightforward pick for me as the consensus seems line for this looks to be Minnesota Vikings (-4) so to get two and half points is a bargain. With the Kansas City Chiefs unlikely to start Patrick Mahomes a couple of weeks after dislocating his knee and having activated Chad Henne I’m going to grab the points for the team who I think is playing much better right now.

Gee’s Pick:        Vikings
Dan’s Pick:        Chiefs

Jets @ Dolphins (+5.5)

Given the disfunction surrounding the New York Jets and how the Miami Dolphins have covered for two weeks in a row with Ryan Fitzpatrick back as the quarterback I’m going to say that the Dolphins lose close or maybe even fall into a win in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Dolphins

Lions @ Raiders (-2.5)

This is a tricky one for me as the Oakland Raiders have been competitive despite being on the road for five weeks even if they did have a bye after their London game, but they welcome a Detroit Lions who have also been competitive and neither team exactly inspires confidence. There’s only 3.9% between them in DVOA and as the better team are getting points I’m going to grab the Lions but I don’t feel great about it.

Gee’s Pick:        Lions
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Buccaneers @ Seahawks (-6.5)

This is an awkward line for me as the Seahawks, famed for their home advantage with the twelves in Seattle have already lost two games at home and only just beat the lowly Bengals. However, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are incredibly inconsistent thanks to Jameis Winston’s propensity to give the ball away. There’s a couple of factors that tell me that this line is to high so I am going to pick the Bucs based on that, but it would not surprise me if the Seahawks make this pick look foolish.

Gee’s Pick:        Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

Browns @ Broncos (+2.5)

I so want to say away from this game, that sees the Denver Broncos starting rookie quarterback Brandon Allen go against a dysfunctional Cleveland Browns team who are not handling adversity well. If I had Joe Flacco I might well pick the Broncos but in this one I’m going to hold my nose and pick the Browns.

Gee’s Pick:        Browns
Dan’s Pick:        Browns

Packers @ Chargers (+3.5)

The LA Chargers have no home field advantage at the best of times, but the Green Bay Packers are one of the best travelling fan groups already and are playing so much better that I’m going to back the Packers to cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Packers
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Patriots @ Ravens (+3.5)

This should be one of the most interesting matchups of the week, and the Baltimore Ravens have always given the New England Patriots problems. The Patriots have been covering lines for fun all season and so despite the fact I’m seeing this as a good number for the Ravens, I’m still going to pick the Patriots. I can’t wait to see how Bill Belichick tries to keep Lamar Jackson quiet.

Gee’s Pick:        Patriots
Dan’s Pick:        Patriots

Cowboys @ Giants (+7.5)

When the Dallas Cowboys have won this season they have won big, but they also have a loss against the New York Jets, although that was at the height of their injury problems. The New York Giants got a boost when they put rookie quarterback Daniel Jones into the starting lineup, but that only lasted two games and they have now lost four straight. The Cowboys are coming off their bye week, but the Giants won’t want to be embarrassed in front of the nation on Monday night football. I want nothing to do with this line, but I’m seeing this line as an extra point to the Giants and so I’m reluctantly going to grab them.

Gee’s Pick:        Giants
Dan’s Pick:        Cowboys

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

So it’s the day of my trip to Wembley, but I just have time (I hope) to get up my picks for week eight and have a stab at the trivia question.

‘What is Browns’ coach Paul Brown credited with inventing?’

Now, as a Bengals fan, who were the second NFL team founded by Paul Brown, I’m aware of a few innovations that Paul Brown was responsible for including team building with being the first coach to use timed forty yard dashes, the first communication to a player’s helmets, but I think what 3D is after with an in invention with the Browns is the creation of the draw play.

As for the theme, we’re still floating round early NFL, but I’ve already tried TWF teams, pre-merger, and the centenary year – I’m blanking on a new one and I am sure I’m going to kick myself when one of us eventually get it right or we get put out of our misery. It might well be the latter at our current rate.

‘I’m thrown by the word ‘Invented’ in this question, and the fact that he’s specifically said that it’s a question about the Browns. My first instinct is to say ‘the Cincinnati Bengals’ as I think he founded them but again, the word ‘invent’ doesn’t really apply. But that’s pretty much all I know about the fella so it’s going to be a guess… Did he invent shoulder pads or something like that? I’ll go with that.

Only possible idea at the minute for theme is first round draft picks, so I’ll go for that too.’

Seahawks @ Falcons (+4.5)

The Seattle Seahawks will be looking to bounce back from last week’s loss to the Ravens and this is the perfect spot to do it as the Falcons were struggling before Matt Ryan got injured and so with Ryan sitting out this game and the Falcons having the league’s twenty-ninth ranked defence by DVOA – I am going to pick the Seahawks in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

Eagles @ Bills (-1.5)

I am a little confused by this line as the Philadelphia Eagles lost badly last week to the Cowboys, are on the road in Buffalo to face a Bills team who have only lost one game so far this season. Now to be fair, the Eagles do actually rate as the better team by DVOA even after their loss to the Cowboys dropped them from eighth to fifteenth, whilst the Bills rank twenty-first, but I fancy the Bills to edge this one out given the Eagles injuries.

Gee’s Pick:        Bills
Dan’s Pick:        Bills

Chargers @ Bears (-4.5)

This is a tough game to call because the Chargers are really struggling with injuries and had to find whole new ways to lose a close game to the Titans last week. They take on a Bears’ team who are struggling due to the apparent failure of Mitch Trubisky to develop, although they are 3-3 so it’s not a disaster. The Bears are only 6.4% better by DVOA and I’m not sure they should be giving away this many points so I’m going to grab them, but I don’t exactly feel great about it.

Gee’s Pick:        Chargers
Dan’s Pick:        Bears

Bengals @ Rams (-12.5)

So I will be at this game, which is still an exciting thing to say even if the Bengals have been anything but competitive this season. They face an LA Rams team who are struggling but not out of the playoff race at 4-3 and are coming off a twenty-seven point win against the struggling Falcons. The Bengals may be 0-7, but only two of their losses have been by thirteen points or more, so whilst my concern is that Zac Taylor runs the same scheme as the Rams and was on their staff last year plus defensive coordinator Wade Philips is a better coach than anyone on the Bengals staff, I’m going to pick the Bengals to keep it within thirteen. I really hope it is more competitive than that!

Gee’s Pick:        Bengals
Dan’s Pick:        Rams

Broncos @ Colts (-6.5)

I am not sure if I underestimated the Colts as a whole or merely overestimated how injured they were and how good the Texans are, but the Colts got the win to stay atop the AFC South last week. The Texans host a rested Denver Broncos team who having looked like they were pulling things together for a couple of weeks got thumped last Thursday by a Patrick Mahomes-less Chiefs. This is a big line though, and only one of the Colts’ wins has been by seven points or more. I’m hesitant to do it, and the lines suggest I should go for the Broncos but after last week’s performances I can’t bring myself to do it.

Gee’s Pick:        Colts
Dan’s Pick:        Broncos

Giants @ Lions (-6.5)

Oh, how I hate this line! I am perfectly comfortable saying the Lions are a better team than the Giants, but they have now lost three games straight and so are not exactly trustworthy. That said the Giants are on their own three game losing streak after the two game bump that starting Daniel Jones created and the Giants lost to the Cardinals last week. This feels like too many points and I want to run away from this game, but as I have to make a pick I’m going to hold my nose and grab the team whose quarterback was the fastest to forty thousand yards and who are 14.5% better by DVOA.

Gee’s Pick:        Lions
Dan’s Pick:        Lions

Buccaneers @ Titans (-2.5)

This is another game that I really don’t know what to do with as the Tennessee Titans got themselves a win against the Chargers last week and looked a bit better with Ryan Tannehill running their offence. However, I don’t have strong feeling for them and they welcome a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team who are coming off a bye week following their awful performance in London. That said, given the number of times that Jameis Winston gave the ball way, an eleven point loss to the Panthers was not that bad. I really want to stay away from this game as well, but in this one I’m going to grab the Titans at home and hope that the 15.2% difference the other way by DVOA doesn’t make me look stupid,

Gee’s Pick:        Titans
Dan’s Pick:        Titans

Cardinals @ Saints (-9.5)

This is a big line, but the New Orleans Saints continue to play well with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback and have a top ten defence by DVOA. The welcome an Arizona Cardinals team who have actually won their last three games but the Saints are a very different proposition to the Bengals, Falcons or Giants and given that I have seen this line as high as -12.5 I think -9.5 is good value.

Gee’s Pick:        Saints
Dan’s Pick:        Saints

Jets @ Jaguars (-5.5)

The New York Jets got embarrassed on Monday night, their offence getting shut out in a 33-0 loss to the Patriots. This week they travel to face a Jacksonville Jaguars who got back on track last week thanks to facing the Bengals, but I’m not sure how good they actually are. That said, I do think they are better than the Jets who have only been competitive in two games this season and so I’m going to reluctantly back the Jaguars.

Gee’s Pick:        Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:        Jaguars

Panthers @ 49ers (-5.5)

This is one of the matchups of the week in my eyes as it sees the unbeaten San Francisco 49ers host the 4-2 Panthers who haven’t looked back since they sat Cam Newton to get him healthy. However, it’s not the play of backup quarterback Kyle Allen that is driving this record but the Panthers defence and Christian McCaffery’s astonishing offensive production. As good as the 49ers have been, and they added Emmanuel Sanders by trade this week, I think this line is too high in what I think will be a very competitive game so I’m grabbing the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Panthers
Dan’s Pick:        49ers

Browns @ Patriots (-12.5)

What do I do with the Cleveland Browns? They have the potential to cover this line and are coming off a bye but only their win against the Ravens looks like a quality result and there are a whopping sixty-nine point one percentage points between them and the Patriots by DVOA. The Patriots have been great against the spread this year despite it frequently being this high. I hate to do it, but I’m going to back the unbeaten Patriots who have only failed to win by thirteen points or more once this season.

Gee’s Pick:        Patriots
Dan’s Pick:        Patriots

Raiders @ Texans (-6.5)

This is tricky game to pick as the Oakland Raiders have been competitive for a lot of the year and won as many games as they have lost. This week they travel to face the Houston Texans, who looked to have found something but lost receiver Will Fuller last week to a hamstring injury and he was doing a great job of balancing the Texans’ passing attack. I do think the Texans are the better team but there’s not that much difference between them by DVOA so I think this line is a little high. I’m going to grab the points and hope…

Gee’s Pick:        Raiders
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Packers @ Chiefs (+4.5)

This is a really tricky game to pick as the Kansas City Chiefs are obviously going to miss Patrick Mahomes, but their defence played much better than it had all season last week and they are coming off extra rest having won their Thursday night game against the Broncos. They welcome a Green Bay Packers team who have only lost once this season and last week put up an offensive performance to match the defence that has been playing well all season. Given the problems the Broncos have had this season I’m not ready to say the Chiefs’ defence is fixed, and although this could be recency bias as I have watched the coaching tape of the Packers offence from last week – I’m going with the Packers in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Packers
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Dolphins @ Steelers (-14.5)

At the start of the season the Miami Dolphins were losing badly enough that teams were covering some ridiculous spreads against them, but having put Ryan Fitzopatrick back in the game against Washington the previous week, the Dolphins started him against the Bills last week and so covered the spread for a second week in a row. The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a bye and so look likely to get Mason Rudolph back from his concussion this week, but let’s be honest, the Steelers have not looked good this season. Their wins have come against the Bengals and Chargers and only against the Bengals have they managed to win by a margin to cover a line this big so whilst I expect the Dolphins to continue their spotless tanking record – this line is too much for me given the Steelers’ play this season.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Dolphins

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.