It suddenly occurred to me whilst setting the recording of the Thanksgiving games this morning that I couldn’t finish this blog this evening and post as games would already be in progress so I’ll present the first part now, and will follow up with the rest of the games this evening:

So rather worryingly, the current struggles I’m having finding time to maintain this blog is not having an adverse affect on my picks, in fact they seem to be improving as I’ve not only caught, but I have passed him taking a one game lead.

It will have to be another quick tour though the NFL this week, but I’m looking forward to sitting down with the three Thanksgiving games this Friday and writing up a running diary this weekend. In the mean time, let’s take a look at the games for Week 13.

Gee:      Week 12   10-5                   Overall   91-85
Dan:       Week 12   8-7                     Overall   90-86

Bears @ Lions (-7.5)

It’s not time to panic if you’re a Lions fan, but you have to be worried about the offence at this point in the season. There’s no shame in losing to the Patriots with the way that they are playing at the moment, but the offence has been struggling to move the ball for weeks and are currently ranked twenty-fourth by DVOA. The defence is still ranked first in the NFL, but with the race for the wild cards hotting up, they can’t afford to lose too many more games and could do with the offence beginning to function properly..

That said, despite their recent pair of wins, it may not be the worse time to be entertaining the Bears who had to come from behind in the second half against the woeful Buccaneers last week, having beaten the Vikings the week before. Apart from the fact that they have won their last two game 21-13, the odd thing about the Bears has been that the defence might have made a bigger improvement than the offence over the last few weeks. It seems like the Bears are trying to minimise the damage with Jay Cutler, which given that his current contract is guaranteed for over fifty millions dollars is somewhat worrying.

I’m not convinced by the Bears defence and am seriously worried about how Jay Cutler is going to play against the Lions defence so I think the Lions get back on track at home on Thanksgiving, but I’m too scared by the points to take them beating the spread.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

Eagles @ Cowboys (-2.5)

After a possible slow start, I think the next two Thanksgiving games should be great and this is my game of the day.

The Cowboys showed how good their o-line is as they came from behind to beat the Giants. I worry how long Tony Romo can keep going with the injuries he’s carrying, but I don’t think there’s a better line for him to be limping around behind than the one he’s got and with the support of DeMarco Murray in the run game he should be okay.

I’m on record as being all in on Chip Kelly and his team have the record to back that confidence, but neither of his starting quarterbacks are truly outstanding and the play of Mark Sanchez worries me. The Eagles ran out comfortable winners last week but with Sanchez throwing two interceptions to one touchdown, it was more behind their running game and another special teams touchdown than outstanding play by him.

I think this will be a close game, but in the end I just have bit more confidence in Tony Romo and that Cowboys o-line.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Seahawks @ 49ers (-0.5)

I suspect final Thursday game will be a lower scoring battle of a game.

The 49ers have been grinding out results with tough defence whilst their offence stutters through the game. They managed a pretty measly seventeen points against Washington and only scored sixteen the week before against the Giant’s despite their defence getting five interceptions in that game. However, whilst they are not making the most of what looks like a talented group on offence, they seem to know who they are and are winning games.

The Seahawks are playing a pretty similar style of football as well. I’m not sure how much of the defence’s excellent performance last week was down to the core veterans team meeting they held before the game against the Cardinals, and how much was facing Drew Stanton who doesn’t have a run game to help him. Their offence is also sputtering, with the run game working effectively but a serious dearth of talent at receiver meaning the passing game is seriously underpowered.

This is going to be a real throw back brawl of a game. These two teams have split their games recently with the home team winning and so in a pick’em game I’m backing the home team.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers.
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Well now it’s time for weekend games in part 2, and let’s hope I do a little better than the disastrous 0-3 I went yesterday:

Browns @ Bills (-1.5)

I do not know what to do with this game. The Bills had to play in Detroit last week thanks to the snow, didn’t practice for two days, and suddenly Kyle Orton looks like a competent quarterback again. They managed to score thirty-eight points against the Jets having gone seven consecutive quarters without scoring a touchdown in the two previous games. The caveat however, is that they scored forty-three points against the Jest in week eight so I suggest we don’t get too excited yet.

The Browns are keeping themselves in the uber-competitive AFC North race despite Brian Hoyer’s patchy play over the last couple of weeks. It is a sign of Josh Gordon’s playing ability that in his first game back from suspension he caught eight balls for 120 yards despite Hoyer missing him more than once,

This is another really close game, but I just have more faith in the team getting results despite their quarterback’s patchy play, than the team whose quarterback unexpectedly looked competent in his last game, against the Jets…

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Bengals @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

The Buccaneers have shown a few glimpses in recent weeks despite going back to starting Josh McCown at quarterback, which I do not understand given that there’s no hope of them making the playoffs even if they are only two games of the lead in the putrid NFC South. However, Mike Evans has demonstrated that he is right up there with any of the other receivers from this amazing rookie class. Imagine what he could do if they had an elite quarterback.

The Bengals seem to have found their identity again. Not only has the return of Rey Maualuga helped the balance of the linebackers, but Domata Peko is playing better and I’ve seen flashes of the old brilliance from Geno Atkins playing next to him. On offence, I was impressed how quiet the o-line kept JJ Watt despite losing Andre Smith in the second quarter to a tricep injury. Unfortunately, Smith is now done for the season and I’m not sure how I am going to cope watching Marshall Newhouse for the rest of the season, but Kevin Zeitler is playing really well at right guard so hopefully things work out.

I’m worried about picking the Bengals to win a third road game, but I think they have to win this one with games against the Browns, the Steelers twice, and the Broncos coming up.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Titans @ Texans (-6.5)

The Texans have lost Ryan Mallet to a torn pectoral, which I have heard both that he did it in warm-ups, and during he second quarter, either way this may explain the troubles that the Texans had on offence with their only touchdown coming from a pick-six interceptions. The defence was good, but I though JJ Watt was relatively quiet apart from an impressive pass tip and the only time I remember hearing Clowney’s name was him jumping offside.

That said, although there are signs that Zack Mettenberger might be their quarterback of the future, the Titans are still not a good team and they got comprehensively beaten by the Eagles last week.

The Texans are not making the playoffs so they may be better of trying their rookie quarterback Tom Savage to see what they have rather than go back to Ryan Fitzpatrick, but either way I think they will beat the Titans. However, the points make me worry and so I think I’m going to brave the Titans one more time, this could end badly.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Semi-Pros @ Colts (-9.5)

This is a lot of points given how the Colts have been a little up and down over the last few weeks. The Patriots demonstrated that they have a blue print to beat the Colts and their recovery win against the Jaguars was not pretty. However, this could be the game for them to get back on track.

On last week’s Tuesday Morning Football I heard afan repeatedly refer to their team as the Washington semi-professional football team, and given the mess they seem to be in, I am borrowing it for the rest of the season, although a little shortened. With the benching of Richard Griffin the third, the Semi-Pros are sitting a player they gave up two first round picks and a second round pick to get. I generally dislike trading up in the draft, and I don’t think you should ever mortgage future first round picks, there’s too much risk and you hurt the depth of your team in the long run. I am not going to write of RG3, but the break down with the head coach is pretty horrible and there doesn’t’ seem to be a lot of forward planning going on here. I don’t see Colt McCoy being the answer given the mess they are in.

What worries me is that there may well be a bounce back by the Semi-Pros this week just out of sheer relief and RG3 has been so bad. Part of me wants to pick them, but I would rather kick myself for being cautious than place any faith in the team from Washington.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Raiders @ Rams (-7.5)

The Rams covered the line in a tight loss to the Chargers, and demonstrated that they are a quarterback away from really competing as a team. Shaun Hill demonstrated he wasn’t that player losing a fumble for a touchdown, and being intercepted twice, including one in the red zone. The defence has really found its identity but that will only get them so far.

The Raiders finally got their win, and looked reasonably okay doing it. I liked the performance of their young linebacker unit barring the excessive celebrating, and they have two foundation pieces in Khalil Mack and Derek Carr

That said, I don’t think the Raiders are winning this game in Saint Louis, but I don’t see them being blown out either.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Panthers @ Vikings (-2.5)

It has been a hard season for the Vikings, who have the solid defence you would expect from a team coached by Mike Zimmer, but are not clicking on offence yet. I get the feeling that they are a season away from being good and it will be interesting to see how they kick on next season. They were able to keep the game close against the Packers last week and I don’t see them having a problem with visiting Panthers this weekend despite only having won one more game.

The Panthers are on a horrible run of form, not having won since week five and should have lost against the Bengals in week six. It feel like nothing is working quite right for them at the moment. The lack of pass rush and a horrible secondary is too much for even Luke Kuechly to overcome on defence, whilst the debate is ongoing about Cam Newton’s ability to lead in adversity and how hurt he may or may not be. They have had two weeks to prepare for this game, but I don’t see it as the one they are going break their losing streak in.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Saints @ Steelers (-3.5)

There was a time when you knew what you were getting with the Steelers. A tough defence, smash mouth football, ten or eleven wins, and a good run in the playoffs. That has not been the case over recent years and this season they have taken inconsistency to new heights and depths. They have scored fifty-one points against the Colts yet lost to the Buccaneers and the Jets. They got a close win against the Titans on Monday night football ahead of their week twelve bye, maintaining Dick LeBeau’s great record against rookie quarterbacks, and losing me a pick.

This week the Steelers welcome the Saints, who have just lost an unthinkable three straight games at home. Neither side of the ball is playing well, nor does their share of the lead in the NFC South hide the fact that they are not a good team. The Saints have not travelled well in recent years and I don’t expect them to start this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Giants @ Jaguars (+2.5)

Neither of these team are very good. The Jaguars continue to play tough and lose, whilst the Giants played a little better last week.

The only other thing I want to write about is Odell Beckham Jr’s amazing catch last week against the Cowboys. How he managed to arch his back and reel that ball in using one hand I shall never know. It is that rare thing, a highlight that you can keep watching. This why we love football and he’s pretty much the only reason to watch this game unless you are a fan of one of these teams. This could a chance for the Jaguars to get that second win, but my heart won’t let me pick against Beckham for at least another week. This is a terrible way to pick games…

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants (Luckily, Dan agrees with me on this one)

Chargers @ Ravens (-5.5)

The Ravens were the latest team to go to New Orleans and get a win. Their secondary may not look as strong as we are used to, but they got a turnover and were good enough. The offence has slowed down compared to the start of the season, but they still have lots of talent and this is a good home team.

The Chargers managed to keep themselves in the playoff hunt with a win last week, and I’m sure that they were grateful for the return of running back Ryan Mathews. This is a team that have suffered a lot of injuries and I’m not sure if they can hold themselves together for the remainder of the season. Add to that the trip across country to Baltimore and I don’t see them winning this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Cardinals @ Falcons (+2.5)

I didn’t want to pick against the Cardinals last week, but I’m not surprised that they lost the game. The Seahawks in Seattle were too much for them to deal with, but they are still a well coached team that has a really good defence. The Falcons lost the game having played better, but Mike Smith’s time management was not the best at the end of the game. I was impressed how well the Falcons played considering the rest of their season so far, but I don’t see them having the same kind of success this week. I think the Cardinals get back on track.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Patriots @ Packers (-3.5)

This is the game of the weekend. Both teams are playing great football and this really could be a preview of the Super Bowl.

The Packers have been playing peerless football at Lambeau Field this year, with Aaron Rodgers throwing no interceptions all season at home (he’s only had three all year) and the defence has really been standing up over recent weeks.

After a rough start to the season, the Patriots have played themselves into great form, with Bill Belichick and his staff changing their play style to exploit their opponent from week to week.

I’m taking the Patriots as I’m getting points, but I wouldn’t be surprised by any result in what should be a fabulous game.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Broncos @ Chiefs (+1.5)

This should be a really good divisional game.

The Chiefs are coming off a very disappointing loss to the Raiders, that could cost them dear. I’ve been writing all season about how solid the Chiefs are, and for the most part they have been, but they now have two really bad losses and in a tight playoff race losing to the Raiders and Titans could really cost them. They have the tools on defence, particularly with Justin Houston leading the league in sacks, to cause the Broncos problems, but I don’t think they have the tools to manufacture the points they need against the Broncos’ defence.

The Broncos have had a bit of a wobble thanks to some injuries, and in particular some problems with their offensive line. However, they found a way to come back against the Dolphins and get the win whilst only giving up a sack against the excellent Dolphins defence. I think that will have enough to win this game despite travelling to Arrowhead Stadium, but I’d be lying if I said I hadn’t gone back and forth a number of times on this one. Still, I’m sticking with the Broncos. I think…

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Dolphins @ Jets (+5.5)

The Dolphins are a good team that just needs to get both sides of the ball working at the same time to get a marquee win. In their close loss to the Broncos, Ryan Tannehill played well again but the defence that has been so strong can’t give up twenty-two points in the final quarter if they are going to win games. That said, they are travelling to the Jets who managed a measly three points last week against the Bills. The Bills defensive line is one of the best in the league, and they wreaked havoc against the Jets, injuring an ineffective Michael Vick so Geno Smith returns as starter. I get the feeling everyone on the Jets can’t wait until the end of this horrid season.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

It suddenly occurred to me whilst setting the recording of the Thanksgiving games this morning that I couldn’t finish this blog this evening and post as games would already be in progress, so I am posting the first part now, and will follow up with the rest of the games this evening:

So rather worryingly, the current struggles I’m having finding time to maintain this blog is not having an adverse affect on my picks, in fact they seem to be improving as I’ve not only caught, but I have passed him taking a one game lead.

It will have to be another quick tour though the NFL this week, but I’m looking forward to sitting down with the three Thanksgiving games this Friday and writing up a running diary this weekend. In the mean time, let’s take a look at the games for Week 13.

Gee:      Week 12   10-5                   Overall   91-85
Dan:      Week 12   8-7                     Overall   90-86

Bears @ Lions (-7.5)

It’s not time to panic if you’re a Lions fan, but you have to be worried about the offence at this point in the season. There’s no shame in losing to the Patriots with the way that they are playing at the moment, but the offence has been struggling to move the ball for weeks and are currently ranked twenty-fourth by DVOA. The defence is still ranked first in the NFL, but with the race for the wild cards hotting up, they can’t afford to lose too many more games and could do with the offence beginning to function properly..

That said, despite their recent pair of wins, it may not be the worse time to be entertaining the Bears who had to come from behind in the second half against the woeful Buccaneers last week, having beaten the Vikings the week before. Apart from the fact that they have won their last two game 21-13, the odd thing about the Bears has been that the defence might have made a bigger improvement than the offence over the last few weeks. It seems like the Bears are trying to minimise the damage with Jay Cutler, which given that his current contract is guaranteed for over fifty millions dollars is somewhat worrying.

I’m not convinced by the Bears defence and am seriously worried about how Jay Cutler is going to play against the Lions defence so I think the Lions get back on track at home on Thanksgiving, but I’m too scared by the points to take them beating the spread.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

Eagles @ Cowboys (-2.5)

After a possible slow start, I think the next two Thanksgiving games should be great and this is my game of the day.

The Cowboys showed how good their o-line is as they came from behind to beat the Giants. I worry how long Tony Romo can keep going with the injuries he’s carrying, but I don’t think there’s a better line for him to be limping around behind than the one he’s got and with the support of DeMarco Murray in the run game he should be okay.

I’m on record as being all in on Chip Kelly and his team have the record to back that confidence, but neither of his starting quarterbacks are truly outstanding and the play of Mark Sanchez worries me. The Eagles ran out comfortable winners last week but with Sanchez throwing two interceptions to one touchdown, it was more behind their running game and another special teams touchdown than outstanding play by him.

I think this will be a close game, but in the end I just have bit more confidence in Tony Romo and that Cowboys o-line.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Seahawks @ 49ers (-0.5)

I suspect final Thursday game will be a lower scoring battle of a game.

The 49ers have been grinding out results with tough defence whilst their offence stutters through the game. They managed a pretty measly seventeen points against Washington and only scored sixteen the week before against the Giant’s despite their defence getting five interceptions in that game. However, whilst they are not making the most of what looks like a talented group on offence, they seem to know who they are and are winning games.

The Seahawks are playing a pretty similar style of football as well. I’m not sure how much of the defence’s excellent performance last week was down to the core veterans team meeting they held before the game against the Cardinals, and how much was facing Drew Stanton who doesn’t have a run game to help him. Their offence is also sputtering, with the run game working effectively but a serious dearth of talent at receiver meaning the passing game is seriously underpowered.

This is going to be a real throw back brawl of a game. These two teams have split their games recently with the home team winning and so in a pick’em game I’m backing the home team.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers.
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Thanks to various non-football issues I am scrambling to keep blogs coming at the moment, and hence the missed write up of the Bills at Dolphins game. Dan and I had a rough week, getting six and five picks right respectively, so I have now pulled within one game of Dan.

Looking back at my results from last week, it confirms that I think I am doing a bad job of taking who is away or at home into account when considering the line. I don’t mind getting caught out by games like the Rams beating the Broncos or the Buccaneers beating Washington as who would have predicted that. However, if I’d though a little more about where the game was being played when picking against the Dolphins and Packers at home, then I would have probably picked differently. In fairness, I was worried about the Eagles pick from Friday, when listening to various podcasts it suddenly dawned on me that I had backed Mark Sanchez over Aron Rodgers, that’s ground for losing your blog straight away!

Anyway, I’m going to run through the games with this in mind, and see if I can keep the pressure up on Dan as I try to get back on par with him.

Gee:      Week 11   6-8                     Overall   81-80
Dan:       Week 11   5-9                     Overall   82-79

Chiefs @ Raiders (+7.5)

The Raiders continue to play tough and lose. It was nice to see Khalil Mack get his first sack as a pro, but this is all small comfort for a team who now have not won a competitive game for a year. I keep saying that they’re not going to go the whole season without a win, but once again this is not the week. The Chiefs continue to march on and play well. I think they will win this game, but after a bruising encounter against the Seahawks, I wonder if they will win by this much.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Browns @ Falcons (-3.5)

The Browns are not handling conference wins well, following up a second win over an AFC North opponent by losing a second time. They’re getting Josh Gordon back this week, and I think they will bounce back against the Falcons. Somehow in the NFC South, a 4-6 record is good enough to give you a share in the lead of the division, but wins against the awful Buccaneers and the collapsing Panthers hardly inspires confidence. They’ve traditionally had a good home record, but I still worry about the amount of talent they’ve lost on the o-line.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Jets @ Bills (-4.5)

That was a tough loss for the Bills. Their defence is really good, and their d-line is playing brilliantly, but the offense just can’t get keep them in games. They have now gone seven consecutive quarters without scoring a touchdown. That said, they put forty-three points on the Jets in Week eight so this might be the game to get back into scoring ways. The Jets however may have other ideas, having finally got their second win of the season before going into the bye. However, they are still short of talent and I’m not convinced that Michael Vick is the answer, so I’m backing the Bills.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Buccaneers @ Bears (-5.5)

The Buccaneers won by twenty points last week, taking their win total for the season to two. They are not a good team, and I think their results speak to just how dysfunctional the Washington team are. The Bears finally broke out of their slump, getting a performance from their offence reminiscent of what we were expecting at the beginning of the season. I don’t think this will be enough to turn their season round, but they should have more than enough for the Buccaneers.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

Bengals @ Texans (-1.5)

I lost a game last week because I angered the football gods by picking against one of their own, JJ Watt, a 3-4 defensive end who catches touchdown passes like the tight-end he was in college. However, I’m not totally convinced by them and the Bengals began to look like themselves again last week. Their run stopping problems have had a lot to do with the missed games by their linebackers Rey Maualuga and Vontaze Burfict, and the return of Maualuga last week seems to have made a difference. This could be the pick of a hopeful fan, but I’m sticking by the Bengals this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Lions @ Patriots (-6.5)

The Lions fell short last week against the team that has the best record in the NFL. Their defence is still playing well, but their offence is struggling. I think that they are still a good team, but this is not the week for them to bounce back. The Patriots keep rolling, and it will be interesting to see what game plan Belichick and his staff will come up with this week. I don’t think we’ll see another two hundred yard game from Jonas Gray, but it was a great story for the running back who was on the practice squad only a few weeks ago.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Packers @ Vikings (+9.5)

The Packers are one of the scariest teams in the league right now, and I still can’t believe I backed Sanchez over Rodgers, even getting points. It appears that the experiment with Clay Mathews playing middle linebackers on early downs is here to stay, and it appears to be working. This is a lot of points, but given what the Packers have done to the Eagles and Bears over the last couple of weeks, I don’t see them having a problem. The Vikings are a solid team, with a young quarterback that has potential, and a good defence, but they don’t have enough for this one, even at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Titans @ Eagles (-11.5)

The Eagles are a good team that ran into a buzz saw last week. There aren’t too many teams in the league that can do that to them, but the points they are giving in this game baffles me. The Titans ran the Steelers close last week, with Zach Mettenberger keeping them in the game. I don’t think they will win the game, but I’m worried enough by the points that I think they will cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Jaguars @ Colts (-13.5)

This number makes me want to pick the Jaguars. However, despite the horrible record that the Colts have against the Patriots with Andrew Luck as their quarterback, he is such a good player that I have to go against my first instinct. This is probably the week where picking the Jaguars as a road underdog finally pays off, but I’ve been bitten too many times this season already.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Rams @ Chargers (-5.5)

The Chargers got their win, but weren’t exactly convincing against the Raiders, whilst Philip Rivers  has possibly picked up an injury to add to the large number the Chargers already have. This might be an over reaction, but the Rams defence has looked really good for a couple of weeks now. Their front seven is finally beginning to play as we expected before the season and they got enough out of their offence led by Shaun Hill to beat the Broncos. I’ve been troubled by these 5.5 lines a lot this season, but I fancy the Rams to at least cover in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Cardinals @ Seahawks (-6.5)

The Seahawks are just not the team they were last year, and whilst they should not be underestimated, between the issues with moving the ball through the air on offence and the defence just not being as dominant, I can’t back them to win this game. The Cardinals have the best record in Football thanks to a defence that is playing well and great coaching. I reluctantly picked against them last week, but I’m not making the same mistake twice, even if they are travelling to Seattle.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Dolphins @ Broncos (-7.5)

There are some chinks in the armour showing for the Broncos, particularly last week with Peyton Manning losing both Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders during the game. He doesn’t have that much support from the run game, so he could ill afford to lose two of his favourite targets, plus the Broncos seem to be having a difficult time with their o-line. This is not a great time for them to be facing the Dolphins with their excellent d-line. The Dolphins pulled away in the second half of last week’s game, and whilst there is plenty of room for Tannehill to develop, he does appear to be moving the ball much better these days. I am really not sure if the Dolphins have enough to beat the Broncos, but I don’t see them being beaten by eight either.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Washington @ 49ers (-8.5)

Things seem to be going seriously awry in Washington. It is not often that you see a head coach be as blunt about his quarterback’s deficiencies as Jay Gruden was this week,,the day after Richard Griffin gave a demonstration on precisely how not to do a press conference. Having lost by twenty points to the Buccaneers, they now have to travel across the country to San Francisco and I do not see this going well. Despite defensive injuries, an offence that is still misfiring, and the drama surrounding their coach, the 49ers have dragged themselves back into the playoff hunt. It is worrying that they got five interceptions against the Giants, but only won the game 16-10, yet I think that they will cover in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Cowboys @ Giants (+3.5)

The Cowboys needed the bye to try to get Tony Romo healthy and to give DeMarco Murray a much deserved rest. The Giant’s are playing horribly right now, and I can’t see them winning this game despite how good Odell Beckham has looked over the last few weeks.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Ravens @ Saints (-3.5)

The Saints have started blitzing again on defence, and have started losing too. The offence still doesn’t look right and they could ill afford to lose Brandin Cooks for the season to a broken thumb. It is a testament to the putrid state of the NFC South that their 4-6 record gives them a share of the division lead. The Ravens have been struggling a little since losing cornerback Jimmy Smith, but before the bye they ran up a comfortable win against the Titans. They have to be worried about their 2-3 divisional record, but this appears to be as good a time as any to play the Saints in New Orleans given their recent record.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

For both Dan and I last week was a good one for picks and a bad one for how our teams actually played. As frustrated as Dan was by the close loss to the Lions, I think I win the crappiest team performance of the week after the debacle of the Bengals loss, and a historically bad performance by Andy Dalton. I’m not sure writing a picks column is the best way to cleanse that loss from my system, but I’ll give it a try and hope that I can keep the pressure on Dan by continuing to cut into his lead.

Gee:     Week 10   9-4              Overall   75-72
Dan:     Week 10   8-5              Overall   77-70

Bills @ Dolphins (-5.5)

This is a matchup of two very similar teams, both of which have really good defences, questions on offence, a 5-4 record, and both lost by four points on Sunday to quality teams.

The Bills issues on offence are at quarterback, and whilst that has stabilised somewhat since Kyle Orton became the starter, he is an average quarterback that is not going to win you games on his own. The Dolphins have also had questions at quarterback, but in recent weeks Ryan Tannehill has looked to have made progress and was going against the top ranked defence in the league last week.

The problem is that the Dolphins lost their left tackle Branden Albert for the year with ACL & MCL tears, I can speak from recent experience about what problems that can cause you, and that’s before we consider the defence that’s coming to town. I think this will be a close game, and whilst I don’t feel great sticking my neck out against what I assume will be a pick of Dolphins by Dan, I’m backing the Bills to stay within five in this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Falcons @ Panthers (-1.5)

This game feels like a total crap shoot to me. The Falcons picked up their third win of the season against a horrible Buccaneers team whilst the Panthers slid to a 3-6-1 record with a big loss to the Eagles on Monday night. Thanks to the putrid nature of the NFC South this year, three wins still has you in the race for the division title, but I can’t see either of these teams as they are currently performing making a serious challenge. I am not sure how to judge the rankings at Football Outsiders as I can’t quantify how the huge win the Falcons had over the Buccaneers earlier in the year affects their respective standing, but the Falcons have more weapons and a better quarterback as they are currently playing, and with the Panthers defence struggling I’m reluctantly backing a second road underdog. This can’t end well.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Vikings @ Bears (-3.5)

Quietly the Vikings have got themselves four wins whilst the Bears have been falling apart over the last few weeks.

The Bears have given up over fifty points in their last two games and their only win against a team with a winning record is their week 2 game against the 49ers. We knew the defence was not going to be great, but it has been horrendous and it is one thing to get beat on talent, but when Jordy Nelson is dancing uncovered behind your safeties, you have real issues of coaching and scheme. What make this even worse is that the offence, which has talent enough at the skill position to match up with anybody, is also underperforming.

The Vikings have their issues, but Teddy Bridgewater managed not to turn the ball over against Washington, whilst throwing for 268 yards and a touchdown, and their defence is quietly ranked tenth in the league by DVOA. I’m worried that the Bears home losing streak has to end at some point, but I don’t see why they are getting the benefit of the doubt in points this week, I’ve seen nothing that makes me thing they’ve earned it this season.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Bengals @ Saints (-6.5)

This line is perfectly placed to make me waver, although I’m not sure how much of that is due to my current relationship with the Bengals.

The Saints stand atop the wretched NFC South division with their 4-5 record, and are coming off a narrow overtime loss to the 49ers. They have been playing well below the standards many expected, with the defence taking a step back from last year’s improved performance and perhaps more surprisingly, the offence also does not look quite right. In the 49ers game Drew Brees threw another strange interception as well as giving up a strip sack at the end of the game so the 49ers could kick the winning field goal. In fairness, on another day they could have won the game at the end of the fourth quarter as you rarely see a flag for a push off on the last play Hail Mary, but despite what Jimmy Graham claimed, the call was correct according to the rules.

On the other side of this game, I’m worried. The Bengals defence is having problems with the front seven, particularly in the run game, and the least said about Andy Dalton’s historically bad game the better. I’m hoping they will bounce back with some fire against the Saints, but New Orleans is not an easy place to play. I think the Saints will win, but I’m not ready to say the Bengals are going to get blown out again. This could be a pick based completely on hope, but I’m going with the Bengals to at least keep this game competitive.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Texans @ Browns (-3.5)

The Texans are coming off a bye and are starting Ryan Mallet in this game. The problem with this team has been the offence and Ryan Fitzpatrick has been holding them back, but I’m not sure that Mallet is nailed on to be the solution, particularly given the Arian Foster is currently listed as questionable with a groin injury. The Browns defence has not been playing as well as I expected of them, but despite the extra week to prepare, I’m not sure how successful you are going to be starting an inexperienced career backup in an away game. I think the Cleveland fans are going to be loud as they enjoy being in first place in the AFC North!

If this game was taking place before the Alex Mack injury, I would have no doubt in picking the Browns, but I suspect the line would be different. Since he has gone down, the Browns’ offence has not looked the same with the running game struggling, and the strong showing in last week’s game is somewhat undermined by the Bengals being dead last in rush defence by DVOA. I could regret this as I never like to pick against JJ Watt, but I’ll back the Browns in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Broncos @ Rams (+9.5)

The Rams did better in their loss last week against the Cardinals than the 14-31 score line might make you think. The talented defensive front seems to be finding its feet over the last couple of weeks and followed up their eight sack showing against the 49ers with another three sacks against the Cardinals. In fact it was only a couple of defensive touchdowns for the Cardinals late in the fourth quarter that finally finished off the Rams. The problem is that they just don’t have enough on offence to win and it’s taken special teams heroics or horrible opposition play for them to win.

This is not a week that they are going to get enough of those things to win. Despite their two losses, the Broncos remain the class team of the NFL and although they struggled at first against the Raiders, they soon managed to reassert their dominance to gain a big victory. If you get a chance, take a look at Brock Osweiler’s reaction to Peyton Manning going back in when he through he was. Otherwise, this should be another win for the Broncos and I expect them to cover the spread as well.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Seahawks @ Chiefs (-0.5)

The Chiefs did it again last week, finding ways to manufacture points against a Bills defence that is currently ranked fourth in defence by DVOA. They ran the ball well enough with Jamaal Charles demonstrating why he went early in so many fantasy drafts, and even Alex Smith got in on the act with a rushing touchdown to go with his 177 yards and no interceptions. They are also solid on defence, but the rush defence ranking of twenty-first by DOVA does worry me in this game.

The Seahawks have managed to get back on track with three straight wins, but they have come against the Panthers, Raiders, and Giants, so it might not be time to get too excited yet. They managed an incredible 350 yards of rushing against the Giants, but they don’t have a lot of options in the passing game and Russell Wilson threw two interceptions to go with him hundred yards rushing and touchdown. The defence are just not what they were last year, which is probably not surprising given their outstanding level of play last season, but it was still surprising to see a rookie receiver get behind Richard Sherman.

I think this should be a good game, but I think the Chiefs solid brand of football will win out in a noisy Arrowhead Stadium.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

49ers @ Giants (+4.5)

The Giants are in trouble, and when defensive players are plain avoiding even trying to make a tackle then you know it is bad. They are not exactly terrible, but are ranked either eighteenth or twentieth by DVOA in all three phases of the game, and such mediocrity is not turning into wins. The one real bright spot is rookie receiver Odell Beckham who has shown real potential, as show when he got behind Richard Sherman with a lovely move last week.

The 49ers managed to get the win last week, reverting back to type in offence by focussing on the run. Between the difficulties they’ve had moving the ball on offence, and the injuries on defence, it has been a tough season for the 49ers but they’re still in the hunt for a playoff spot and I think that they will help that quest despite the long trip across the country this week.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Buccaneers @ Washington (-6.5)

This is not a good game. The Buccaneers have been every bit as woeful as their 1-8 record would suggest, whilst Washington have not exactly inspired many people either. I was surprised that RG3 started in their week 9 loss against the Vikings given they had a bye the following, but he should be healthier now and whilst I’m not convinced by the, I think they will win this game. The points do make pause, but I’m not backing the Buccaneers to do much of anything right now.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Raiders @ Chargers (-10.5)

After a strong start that included conversations about Phillip Rivers being in contention for MVP, the Chargers have fallen off in recent weeks as injuring started to catch up with them. They have been on a bye, but there are only so many centres you can lose before it affects your offence and their rush offence is currently ranked twenty-eight in the league by DVOA. I expect them to bounce back with a win this week, but I don’t see them at this point putting up a huge win over the Raiders.

There are only so many things that you can write about a team that has lost nine games straight this season. There are a few promising young players, but the offseason signing of veterans to put this team over the top has clearly not worked, and they would have been better off to follow the Jaguars’ lead in building through youth as at least you have hope for the future. They haven’t put themselves in cap purgatory with these signings, but it is going to be a long time before the Raiders get back to consistent winning and there are too many players getting game time now that won’t be able to help them when they do start winning.. That said, I think they will keep it close enough to cover in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Lions @ Cardinals (-1.5)

I feel so sorry for Carson Palmer, this is best team he’s played on since the last time he injured his ACL with the Bengals. They continue to play excellent defence and are doing well enough to win on offence with rookie receiver John Brown seeming to make a highlight play catch late in the game each week. Speaking of highlights, we know Patrick Peterson is good, but his tipped interception that he returned for a touchdown was a spectacular play that helped put the game away for the Cardinals and I struggle to believe that was the first interception he’s returned for a touchdown.

The Lions have continued their turnaround under Jim Caldwell, they still lead the league by defensive DVOA and now have Calvin Johnson back from injury. There are still questions about Matthew Stafford’s play, but the side arm throw he used to deliver the game winning touchdown pass to Theo Riddick was the only way that he could get the ball there.

I think the Cardinals have been brilliantly coached this season, and I think they will continue to be good, but this is a big test for Drew Stanton and I think I’d rather be on the side of Mattew Stafford and Calvin Johnsons in this game given how good both defences are, although I’m not happy about going against the Cardinals.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Eagles @ Packers (-5.5)

The Packers battered the Bears at Lambeau Field last week, seemingly scoring at will whilst Clay Matthews played very well spending time at middle linebacker in early downs before reverting back to his more familiar pass rusher role on third down. Time will tell if this is an adjustment that can help solidify the defence enough to help them get back to the Super Bowl, but it looked like a fair start.

The Eagles also are coming off a good win, having easily taken care of the Panthers on Monday night football. They are still having problems with their running game, but the pass game continued to work with Mark Sanchez throwing for a very respectable three hundred yards and two touchdowns in his first start as an Eagle. Add to that a defence that is ranked sixth in the league by DVOA and special teams that leads the league, and you can see why the Eagles are winning games.

I think this is going to be one of the games of the week and I’m surprised that the packers are giving so many points. I think either side can win, but I don’t think that Eagles are going to lose by this much.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Patriots @ Colts (-2.5)

This should be another really good game, with both teams having a strong season.

The Colts season has been driven but Andrew Luck’s excellent play and a defence that has done enough for them to win games. They are still struggling with their running game but when you have a quarterback of Luck’s ability, you can make up for that.

The Patriots has a wobble at the start of the season, which suckered a lot of people into thinking the Brady-Belichick era was over. We are still closer to that being the case than not, but they again look like the team that will win at least ten games and their division.

This should be a close game, but I have more faith in Belichick’s ability to game plan a defence for the Colts than that they can stop Gronkowski, which may seem counterintuitive given that the Colts actually rank higher by defensive DVOA than the Patriots, but I think the Patriots stats are suffering from their early blowout loss to the Chiefs and frankly I’m fed up of being beaten by them.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Steelers @ Titans (+5.5)

Is there any team that has been more up and down the Steelers this season? They followed up strong wins against the Colts and Ravens by giving the perennially rebuilding Jets a second win for the season, and previously gave the woeful Buccaneers their only win of the year. However, the Titans are awful and Dick LeBeau has an amazing record against rookie quarterbacks, which does no bode well for the Titans’ sixth round pick Zack Mettenberger. I’m a little worried by the points just because of the erratic nature of the Steelers’ performance, but I’d need to be getting a lot more before I picked the Titans.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Considering the quality of games and the excitement surrounding the NFL at the moment, not to mention finally gaining a game on Dan, this is a really bad week to be short on time for writing. I won’t bore you with the details, but I will be trying a different format this week to keep the picks going, trying to hit key points from last week and the season so far without double checking various stats and rankings. Knowing my luck, I’ll do better picking this week.

Gee:     Week 9   7-6               Overall   66-68
Dan:     Week 9   6-7               Overall   69-65

Browns @ Bengals (-6.5)

So the Browns are doing okay this season, not in the way I was expecting but they remain competitive in a division where everyone has a winning record. The Bengals seem to be surviving their slump and turning it around, but the performance of Andy Dalton is still a little worrying. I think the Bengals will win this game, but the points are too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:       Browns
Dan’s Pick:       Browns

Falcons @ Buccaneers (+0.5)

The Falcons are ravaged by injury, but flew out of the gates to start the Wembley game yet couldn’t hold on against the Lions and lost another one. The Buccaneers covered against the Browns, and did some things themselves, but there seems to be such disarray with this team. I don’t particularly like either one of them, but at least the Falcons have a quality quarterback with some weapons and so in a pick the winner spread, I’m going for the Falcons.

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:       Falcons

Chiefs @ Bills (+1.5)

This should be a really good game, which you might have questioned before the start of the season, but both teams are playing well. The Bills have a tremendous defence and Kyle Orton seems to be providing enough stability at quarterback that they remain competitive in the AFC East. The Chiefs are also playing solid football, getting themselves a 5-3 record whilst staying in every game bar the now inexplicable loss to the Titans in week one. I’m really torn on this game, I’m leaning towards the Chiefs as I think they’ve been more consistent, but that could be EJ Manuel’s performance from earlier in the season poisoning my trust in the Bills.

Gee’s Pick:       Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:       Chiefs

Cowboys @ Jaguars (+7.5)

The Cowboys excellent start of the season seems to be stuttering, and as worrying as the Tony Romo back injury is, I’m also concerned that two weeks in a row their much praised offensive line has struggled to protect their quarterback. The Jaguars are playing pretty well on defence, but are just too short on talent, to win. That said, I have a feeling that the Cowboys will struggle and this will be a close game. Either that or DeMarco Murray is about to get right back on track after finally having his record breaking streak of one hundred yard games to start the season broken.

Gee’s Pick:       Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

Dolphins @ Lions (-2.5)

The Dolphins had one of the performances of the week on Sunday in their 37-0 beating of the Chargers. They have a terrific defence, and they finally seem to be getting the best out of Ryan Tannehill, which has kept them part of the conversation in a competitive AFC East division. The Lions are heading up their division, playing excellent defence but they’re struggling on offence with some key injuries. I’m really torn on this game as well, for some reason I still don’t trust the Dolphins fully, but I’m not sure what I’m getting with the Lions either and I don’t feel I can go against a team that’s just won so convincingly.

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Dolphins

Titans @ Ravens (-9.5)

The Ravens were playing so consistently, but have wobbled the last couple of weeks having lost Jimmy Smith, which really seems to have caused problems in their secondary, in fact so much trouble that they have just released two cornerbacks. The Titans on the other hand have been an incredibly non-descript team that seem lacking in talent and the best performance by one of their players on Sunday was the linebacker they just sent to the Patriots. The only thing that is making me think about this game is the spread, but I haven’t seen enough from the Titans’ offence that makes me think that they can exploit these problems and I don’t think it is a coincidence that the Ravens’ last two losses were on the road, I’m betting on them to bounce back. Although not particularly confidently.

Gee’s Pick:       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Titans

49ers @ Saints (-4.5)

The 49ers are having a troubled season, injured on defence and misfiring on offence, with an o-line whose play has slipped and problems getting the ball in the end zone. They are facing a Saints team who traditionally play well at home, and who have put together two wins in a row as they recover from a rocky start to the season. It appears that Drew Brees has found a rhythm and I think this is the week the Saints finally get themselves a winning record.

Gee’s Pick:       Saints
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

Steelers @ Jets (+4.5)

The Steelers have been good for two weeks in a row, with Ben Roethlisberger throwing six touchdowns in each of them. They still have some weaknesses on defence, but James Harrison has started rolling, a couple of weeks after coming out of retirement and was terrifying against the Ravens last week. The Jets seem to be imploding and I do not understand what benefit they are getting from starting Michael Vick over Geno Smith, frankly they would be better finding out for sure if Smith can turn it round and if not, getting the better pick. They’re not getting into the playoffs from their current position.

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

Broncos @ Raiders (+11.5)

The Broncos had a horrible game against the Patriots, and the narratives about Manning in the cold and losing to Brady will resurface, but I still think they are the most rounded team in the league and I think they will bounce back in this game. The Raiders finally have a pair of players for their fans to get excited about in the rookies David Carr and Khalil Mack, but haven’t been able to turn any of their close losses into wins. Sadly I don’t think they will be keeping this one close, but I don’t see them going winless all year.

Gee’s Pick:       Broncos
Dan’s Pick:       Broncos

Rams @ Cardinals (-7.5)

The Cardinals keep rolling with great defence and one of the best coaching jobs done by a staff of any team. The injuries kept piling up, but so do the wins and I don’t think this game will be an exception. The Rams got another win, with their much vaunted front seven looking more like themselves last week as they more than doubled their sack total for the year in one game. However, their offence struggled without Jake Long and I think the Cardinals will be a much sterner test than the struggling 49ers.

Gee’s Pick:       Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Giants @ Seahawks (-9.5)

The Seahawks have struggled to live up to their Super Bowl winning play of last year, but have righted the ship in the last couple of weeks against the Panthers and the Raiders. Neither of these have been big wins but I think that could be about to change, the Giants were pretty awful against the Colts last week, and have been struggling for large parts of the season, and Seattle is not the place to put that right.

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Giants

Bears @ Packers (-7.5)

The Bears are also imploding, but not where I thought they would. The offence has failed to continue the progress from last year, with a lot of the blame surely falling on Jay Cutler who has thrown too many interceptions. The Packers had a wobble to start the season, but since Rodgers told Packers fans to relax, they’ve gone 5-1 and although I was overly bullish about them travelling to New Orleans, I don’t think they are going to have any such problems at home this week.

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:       Packers

Panthers @ Eagles (-6.5)

The Panthers haven’t been able to get both the offence and defence to play well at the same time this season, with Cam Newton’s play being particularly worrying over the last couple of weeks. The Eagles have been a bit up and down this season, particularly as the o-line has had some injuries. They just lost Nick Foles to a broken collar bone and possibly more worryingly they’ve lost linebacker Demeco Ryans for the season. We’ll now get to see how well Mark Sanchez can play for an offensive minded coach, and I’m backing them more than the troubled Panthers.

Gee’s Pick:       Eagles
Dan’s Pick:       Eagles

If week eight taught us anything, it is that trying to predict NFL results is a mug’s game. I fell another game behind Dan last week, and this week’s lines look horrible. There seem to be three kinds of losses that I have each week: there’s the out by half a point to a point that I can live with, the surprise result that no one saw coming, and the frustrating second guess or I should have seen that coming. See if you can see which teams handed me what kind of loss last week.

Last week by this point of the intro I had picked three games, I don’t have any picked right now…

Gee:      Week 8   7-8                       Overall   59-62
Dan:      Week 8   8-7                       Overall   63-58

Saints @ Panthers (+2.5)

Sometimes when you are wrong, it’s good to be very wrong as it forces you to readjust. It appears that I was very wrong on the Saints last week, but I’m still undecided about them. They had taken care of the Bucs in Week Six, had a bye and got healthier, then only narrowly lost to the Lions. The problem is that they were leading the Lions game up until there was 01:54 left in the fourth quarter, when the Lions scored the last of their fourteen unanswered points to win the game. They had no such problems against the Packers, hanging with them in the first half and pulling away in the third quarter. The offence looked better with Drew Brees playing more like how we would expect, the rookie receiver Brandin Cooks picking up nearly one hundred yards, and Jimmy Graham beginning to look more like himself as he comes back from a shoulder problem. Meanwhile, the defence did enough, although Aaron Rodgers appeared limited by his hamstring problem and you can’t blame him for the way Eddie Lacy’s missed catch popped up for an interception. This team is also one that does not travel well so I don’t know what to make of them this week.

The Panthers lost an ugly game against the Seahawks. Cam Newton managed to throw an interception and lose a fumble, whilst trying to make something happen. The defence managed to look pretty good against a Seahawks unit that is top ten and leads the league in rush offence by DVOA. I have been confused by the Panthers all season, they have been up and down and I have struggled to make sense of who they are as a team. It was reasonable to expect a step back given their salary cap woes and the players they lost, but this means that I really don’t know what to expect of them in any given week. They don’t seem to be able to put together good performances on both sides of the ball at the same time. I really thought they were there for the taking against the Bengals.

I’m worried about the points given that the Saints don’t travel well, and I’m not convinced by either team, but I’m leaning towards the Saints as I feel like I have a better idea of who they can be if thing start to come together. This is a real shot in the dark, but here goes.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Jaguars @ Bengals (-11.5)

The Bengals did enough to get their proper name back last week, although I think they were a little lucky to get the win given that I don’t think there was enough of push by Steve Smith to warrant his touchdown being called back. It will be interesting to see the offence once AJ Green gets back as Mohamed Sanu had another great game and the pair of them could really open the offence out again. The pass defence is very solid, although the rush defence is currently last in the league by DVOA. Still, I feel pretty confident coming into this week against the Jaguars at home. I’m just not sure I’m that confident.

Having got their first win in week seven, the Jaguars came back down with a bump against the Dolphins. Unfortunately Blake Bortles not only threw another interception, but one that was returned eighty-one yards for a touchdown. This team continues to hang in there as their defence is doing okay, but they just don’t have enough talent to do more than compete. That said, I don’t see this game being a blow out as I don’t think the Bengals are healthy enough so I’m worriedly backing the Jaguars to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Buccaneers @ Browns (-6.5)

The Buccaneers are not good, and with the fire sale before the trade deadline the new management are trying to say it’s the previous regime’s players. Either way, I don’t see them doing well in Cleveland. The problem is that the Browns are struggling as well, the loss of Alex Mack really seems to have upset the line (which should not be surprising, I’ve seen myself what damage losing your starting centre can do to a team), so whilst I think they will win, the line makes me nervy. In the end though, the Bucs are ranked dead last in overall DVOA, and by a fair margin, whilst the Browns are solidly mid-table so whilst it’s another anxious pick, I’m going for the Browns.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Cardinals @ Cowboys (-4.5)

I don’t think it’s time to panic yet, but back injuries make me nervous and we don’t know what is going to happen with Tony Romo yet. More surprising to me is that the given the injury situation with Romo, and that they lost to Washington last week, I can’t see why they are giving so many points to the Cardinals. It is pretty amazing that DeMarco Murray has already run for over one thousand yard, and now has eight straight one hundred yard games to start the season. However, the o-line that has been talked about by some as the best in the league this season, couldn’t protect the quarterback last week against Washington, yet this week go against one of the most blitz heavy defences in the league. It could a very tough time for whoever starts at quarterback this week.

Bruce Arians and his staff are doing a great job this season. Having lost so many of the starters from last year’s stellar defence, you would be forgiven for thinking that the Cardinals might struggle, but somehow they are still top ten. They are getting by on offence, although I thought that the observation about their likely unsustainable good play on third down in Aaron Schatz’s Football Outsiders DVOA column was interesting. Still, whilst they may regress at some point, they have enough play makers and seem to be playing well home and away. This is one of the few games that I’m beginning to feel comfortable with this week, which means you should all back the Cowboys to bounce back, but I’m sticking with the Cardinals.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Jets @ Chiefs (-9.5)

Oh dear Geno. A stat line of two completions in eight attempts for five yards and three interceptions is something the like of which we will not see for quite some time. I wrote that I thought this would be a close game, but I underestimated the Bills’ defence, and for the first time I feel like the Jets really let the game get away from them. Sadly, I really don’t see that Michael Vick will be the solution as the new starter given that Geno Smith was pulled in the first quarter, giving Vick plenty of time to secure the starter role through good play. I don’t think an interception and three fumbles, which luckily only once was recovered by the Bills, was really enough to win him the job.

This week the Jets travel to the Chiefs and I think it could be a long day. The Chiefs are a very well coached side, that often win the line of scrimmage battle on both sides of the ball and have playmakers on offense. They took care of business against the Rams last week, and have another bad team this week and whilst the points are high, I think the Chiefs will win big for a second week in a row.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Chargers @ Dolphins (-1.5)

This should be a cracking game. The Dolphins did a solid job against the Jaguars last week, with their defence continuing to play well, and the offence looking like it is making progress. The Chargers are probably gasping for the bye to try and get healthy, but they didn’t disgrace themselves in the loss to the Broncos, and what are the chances that they would win two years in a row in Mile High stadium? I think the Chargers will do well with the extra rest, even having to travel across the country. This is a risky pick as I have no doubt that Dan will be picking the Dolphins, but I think they’ll come a cropper in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Washington @ Vikings (-1.5)

This is a meeting of two 3-5 teams who both found ways to win last week. The Vikings required an overtime Anthony Barr fumble return for a touchdown to beat the Buccaneers, whilst Washington managed to kick a field goal in overtime to win. This is the battle of last year’s Bengals’ coordinators, and whilst I think that Mike Zimmer is the better coach, I don’t know that he has the players right now. I’m more impressed with Washington beating the Cowboys and I’m getting points so I’m backing Washington for a second week in a row, but I would run a lot of miles before I put any money on this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Eagles @ Texans (+2.5)

The Texans came through for me last week, but I’m not sure they have what it takes to win or cover in this game. The defence did well and Arian Foster has rushed for one hundred yards in six of the team’s seven games, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is still a worry and I don’t think that they will have enough in this game.

I don’t think that I overestimated the Eagles but underestimated the Cardinals. There are still questions about what is going on with the offence and LeSean McCoy, but the defence is top ten by DVOA and I have a feeling that they will get back on track this week. I don’t think they were as good as their winning start to the season led some people to think (myself included), but I think they are a better team than the Texans, and whilst I might have picked too many away teams last week, I don’t appear to have learnt my lesson.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Rams @ 49ers (-9.5)

The 49ers were on a bye last week, which they probably really needed given their injuries, but couldn’t have been much fun with the big loss to the Broncos in week seven hanging over them. I think that they have enough to win this game, but they are not the team from last year and this number worries me.

Having got the great win against the Seahawks in week seven, the Rams just got battered away to the Chiefs last week. Poor Austin Davis took seven sacks, and could only muster one touchdown and an interception in the 7-34 loss. They also look to have lost left tackle Jake Long for the season to an ACL tear, with receiver Brian Quick possibly following Long to IR with a shoulder problem, as well as listing right guard Rodger Saffold and centre Scott Wells as questionable with them also having left the game on Sunday.

I know I said the number worries me, but I think the 49ers will be raring to go this weekend, and are catching the Rams at a difficult point in an already horrible season.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Broncos @ Patriots (+3.5)

It’s time for another Brady Manning Bowl, and we should enjoy it whilst we still have them, because there can’t be many of these left.

The Patriots did a real number on the Bears last week, and I’m cross with myself for picking against them. I could write an essay about the way that Patriots attack the centre of the field when Gronkowski is healthy, and how this worked perfectly in attacking the Bears defence, but my focus is actually on Brady as something occurred to me this week. I stand by what I wrote about the ball not coming out like it did, and I did see him miss some throws in that Jets game, but we’ve been watching Peyton Manning throw wobbly passes for two seasons now and he has been incredibly effective. I should have know better than to forget the brains and the will of a Tom Brady, he is past his prime, but still is an incredibly effective quarterback and it looks like the offence is coming together now. He looks to finally have got another receiver in Brandon LaFell and they scored a lot of points last week.

That said, the Broncos right now look like the best team in the league. Their offence is still the best in the league by DVOA, but their defence is improved from last season and is currently ranked second in the league. I should be worried about taking another road favourite, but as good as the Patriots are, I think the Broncos will win this one. I’m really torn on this number, logic dictates that I should take the points and the Patriots at home, but I’m an idiot and if I am going to catch Dan then I need to take the occasional risk.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Raiders @ Seahawks (-14.5)

One team is 0-7 and the other is the reigning Super Bowl Champions and so you might think this is a reasonably large line to get action on both sides, but I’m not so sure.

As defending champions the Seahawks could well be dealing with Pat Riley’s disease of more, but they are certainly having a difficult season. The defence is not playing as well as last year, the offence is not quite firing, they’ve just traded Percy Harvin, there are rumours of discord in the locker room, and they are coming off an unconvincing win. They only scored thirteen points against the Panthers and even Russell Wilson had a drop in play last week, and otherwise he has been excellent this season.

The Raiders are not a good team, but in the majority of their games they are hanging tough. Their rookie quarterback Derek Carr threw for over three hundred yards and a touchdown without an interception, which offers some hope for the future. I don’t see them winning this game, especially in Seattle, but I think that they could keep it within fifteen points. I could be wrong, and the Seahawks could get themselves back on track this week, but I wouldn’t bet on it being by fifteen points or more.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Ravens @ Steelers (-0.5)

This will be a fascinating game for those of us invested in the AFC North, but possibly not a great spectacle. Although the Ravens lost to the Bengals last week, with a different penalty call they could very easily have won, and they still look like a good team. They are now the only team ranked in the top ten in all three phases of the game by DVOA, and I continue to feel confident about them.

The problem is that I do not know what to make of the up and down Steelers. Playing in their eye catching bumble bee throw back jerseys, they put fifty-one points on a Colts defence that had shut out the Bengals the week before. It is probably worth remembering that if a team’s offence is not scoring points, but has solid line play, good receivers including on of the best in the league, and a very good looking running back, then maybe they are due some points. That said, the Colts still managed to put up thirty-four points against a defence that is really not what you would expect from a Steelers team.

I do think that the Ravens are a level above the Steelers, but divisional games can be tricky so I expect a closer game than earlier in the season, but the same end result.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Colts @ Giants (+3.5)

The Colts had been playing so well that maybe they were due a bad game, but the defence that has looked so good recently, were bad against the Steelers as detailed above. However, even under these circumstances Andrew Luck was good enough to keep them hanging around. I am not going to over react to the last game, but the Colts defence plummeted down the rankings by DVOA and it will be interesting to see how that side of the ball goes over the next few weeks.

The Giants are coming off a bye week that followed two difficult losses. There’s no shame in losing to the Eagles and Cowboys this season, but the loss to the Eagles was pretty awful and the Cowboys beat them fairly easily as well. They are pretty much mid table in all three phases of the game by DVOA and I don’t think they have enough to win this game. I seem to be picking a lot of road favourites again, and I am a little bit torn on this one, but in the end I’m sticking with my instincts.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Neither Dan nor I liked the lines much last week and agreed they were a manure based bread snack.. However, the games were excellent, with the highlight probably being an improbable victory for the Rams over the visiting Seahawks. A win that included two great special teams plays that are well worth a look if you haven’t seen them yet. Also worth mentioning is that Peyton Manning passed Bret Farve to become the quarterback with the most passing touchdowns in league history, and given that he doesn’t look like slowing down anytime soon, I think that record is going to get a lot bigger.

I’m kicking myself a little bit about picking the Chargers last week, I was tempted to pick them as the injuries are mounting up for the Chargers, the Chiefs were coming off a bye and had been playing well, despite the now odd looking loss to the Titans. What I didn’t know was that Andy Reid had a 13-2 record coming off a bye, more proof that he is a pretty good coach.

I reverted very quickly to gallows humour on Sunday whilst watching the Bengals get bludgeoned by the Colts defence. I’m adopting the new nickname of the Cincinnati Bagels for my team, as heard on the Tuesday Morning Football Podcast, for this week and hopefully they can manage to score some points against the good visiting Ravens, but as I’m beginning to talk about the games, I guess I should start writing them up properly.

Gee:      Week 7   6-9                       Overall   52-54
Dan:      Week 7   6-9                       Overall   55-51

Chargers @ Broncos (-7.5)

We have now had two good Thursday night games in a row and this one looks like it should a cracker. Both teams are playing well, although the Chargers are the much more injured team. I’m really looking forward to going through the coaching tape of this one, but for me I think there is only one likely winner. The Chargers have been kings of the time of procession battle and I think it is possible that they keep it close again, but the problem is that the Broncos defence is playing very well and they are surging ahead atop the DVOA rankings. This could backfire on me as these larger spreads are difficult, but I have a feeling that the Broncos are going to do well at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Lions vs. Falcons (+3.5)

Not only do we get a game in London this week, but the NFL are experimenting with an early kick-off. This will, as much as anything, tell them if they can fit another game into the Sunday TV schedules, firming up the rationale for putting on the games in London and possibly giving them another package to sell to the American networks. Sadly I think this is going to be a very one sided game. The Lions defence is playing brilliantly and the Falcons have lost five o-line starters to injury already this season. Not a good combination, and although the Lions have been struggling on offence, the Falcons defence has been worse so for me this is a simple pick.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Bills @ Jets (-2.5)

I was pretty impressed with a lot of what the Jets did against the Patriots last week, and you can make a case that they should have won the game. The problem is that they didn’t, and they failed to win in particularly characteristic ways. The bad penalties and the offence lack talent is not something that is going to turn around quickly. I wrote in my recap of the game that you can’t fix a lack of talent during the season, and the Jets immediately go out and trade for Percy Harvin. The history of high profile wide receiver transactions has not often been successful, so I’m really not sure if Percy Harvin will have an impact in this game. The deal was worth doing as Harvin’s contract means they can cut him easily if things don’t work out, and they only gave up a sixth round pick, but this isn’t a magic panacea that is going to fix all of their problems.

It turns out that Sammy Watkins is so good, that you only need competent quarterback play to win games, although the Bills left it very late against the Vikings. However, I don’t think the Jets will have the same success running the ball in this game and as a consequence I think this is a worse match up for them. I think this will be a very good close game, but I think I know where this one is going.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Bears @ Patriots (-6.5)

I’m really not sure what to make of this game. The Bears have so much talent at the skill positions and Jay Cutler has the arm you would want, but he doesn’t protect the ball. The defence is ranked twelfth, which I think a lot of fans would have taken at the beginning of the season, and would be good enough to win if the offence was firing. Last week’s loss to the Dolphins was horrible, and there were was apparently plenty of frustration in the locker room after the game. However, this might not be that bad a game for them. I’m not sure that the Patriots team are firing on all cylinders yet, and they definitely can be run on, so I can see the Bears keeping this game close.

There is no doubting Brady’s competitive nature, and there are signs that things can work for their offence, but I’m not convinced. The ball doesn’t look like it is coming out of Brady’s hand as well as it used to; there have only been flashes from Gronkowski, Wright, LaFell, Edelman, and Amendola in the passing game; and they looked to be missing Stevan Ridley in the rushing game last week. I think they will win this game, but I don’t think they are going to run away with it. These are two teams that I have not been picking well all season, but I’m plumping for another close game.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Ravens @ Bagels (-1.5)

Oh dear… The Bagels couldn’t get anything going on Sunday and it was painful to watch, although not as painful as the hits on Giovani Bernard, who got drilled twice on attempted screen plays that went nowhere. There are injuries in the receiving corp, but we have enough weapons. The hard truth is that it looks like that Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard are playing the wrong roles, in that Hill should be getting more carries and Bernard should be coming in as an awesome change of pace back. The defence stood up pretty well considering the number of three and outs the Bagels offence had to start the game, meaning that the defence was not getting a lot of help. The only crumb of comfort I’ve drawn so far, was the suggestion by Ross Tucker that the Bagels and Panthers’ poor play in week seven could be linked to them playing a full extra quarter of overtime in week six. I really hope that explains it.

There are questions about the Raven’s high rankings in the Football Outsiders stats due to the schedule they have played, but they look very good to me. The defence is playing a familiar brand of tough excellence, and Steve Smith has really added to an offence that really seems to be firing under new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak. I would love to be proved wrong, and I really hope that we get a close brawl of an AFC North game, but I’m worried about this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Bagels

Texans @ Titans (+0.5)

The Texans had fairly spectacular collapse in about two minutes at the end of the second quarter, which was enough for the Steelers to turn the game around and continue their very good run on Monday night football. The questions about the offence remain, and they feel like they are a team that are going to hover around .500 all season. They are currently 3-4, and I fancy them to get back on track this week.

One of the biggest questions about the Titans is ho w did they get their win against the Chiefs in week one. They just managed to beat the Jaguars in week six and then lost to Washington on Sunday, but they have not been good and it looks like they will have a high draft pick to find themselves a franchise quarterback.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Rams @ Chiefs (-6.5)

So this is a game between the pick that got away from me last week, and the result I never saw coming.

The Chiefs are a very solid football team that have some weapons on offence and a very solid defence. They beat the Chargers at their own game last week and welcome a Rams team that got the result of week seven. This is one of those games that I’m going back and forth on, but the Chiefs are ranked thirteenth in special teams, and I can’t see a repeat of the Rams heroics on that side of the ball in this game so I’m worriedly going with the Chiefs to beat the spread.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Dolphins @ Jaguars (+5.5)

The Dolphins had a very good day in Chicago on Sunday leading the entire game as Ryan Tannehill threw for 277 yards and two touchdowns on twenty-five of thirty-two pass attempts. The defence are currently ranked third by DVOA and if they can get play like this from Tannehill more regularly they could really make fight of the AFC East.

Although it destroyed another pick for me, I’m pretty happy for the Jaguars as they finally notched one in the win column. That they managed this despite Blake Bortles throwing three interceptions, which speaks of a solid performance by their defence. The problem is that they lost Paul Posluszny for the rest of the year to a torn pectoral, and he has been a cornerstone of their defence so I think they will come down with a bump in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Vikings @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

Urgh…

So the Vikings narrowly lost to the Bills with Teddy Bridgewater throwing a pair of interceptions and the Bills losing two running backs during the game. Their o-line is not good and the defence is ranked a lowly twenty-second, which is surprising given Mike Zimmer’s ability as a defensive coach.

The Buccaneers are coming off a bye week having been thoroughly beaten by the Ravens, and although it was not as bad as the Falcons drubbing, it was not good. They’ve been pretty poor, with only the week five overtime win against the Saints to cling to.

I don’t like either side in this game, so I’m reluctantly taking the points as I have to make a pick, but I’m glad I don’t have any money riding on this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Seahawks @ Panthers (+4.5)

So I follow up one game where I don’t know what to make of the teams, to another that I’m struggling with but for different reasons.

The Seahawks lost another game road game, and their special teams have plummeted down the DVOA rankings after last week’s performance. They are looking good on offence, with Russell Wilson continuing his excellent season, but they are a bit thinner on defence, the pass rush is not creating pressure like it was last season. However, they are still a good team with very good players and I find it hard to believe that they will lose three games in a row.

The Panthers had one of those games that can happen to anyone visiting Lambeau Field. They simply don’t have the secondary to cope with Aaron Rodgers, and having only allowed two touchdowns in the first quarter before this game, found themselves down at the end of the opening quarter. Cam Newton has been playing well this season, but he couldn’t get the Panthers back in the game. I have gone 2-5 picking the Panthers this year, and I don’t feel great about this, but there is a large gap between them in the DVOA rankings, and I think that the Seahawks will return to winning ways this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Eagles @ Cardinals (-2.5)

The Cardinals got their fifth win of the season last week, and stand atop of the loaded NFC West despite various injuries. Carson Palmer has looked okay when he has played, but the offence is ranked only twenty-fifth by DVOA, and it is their top five defence that’s keeping them in games. They were comfortable against the Raiders without exactly impressing, and I’m sort of waiting for the key injuring on defence to catch up with them.

The Eagles are the other team coming of a bye in week 7, and were very impressive in their week 6 game against the Giants. They got a pass rush unlike anything we have seen from them all season, and somehow they are ranked higher in defence than offence by DVOA. I think this will be a really good game, but I think right now that the Eagles are the healthier and therefore the better team so I’m taking the points.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Raiders @ Browns (-7.5)

I don’t like this line at all. The Raiders are not good, although there are signs that they might have a quarterback in Derek Carr, but I’m not sure where their first win is coming from. The Browns however, seem to be struggling due to the shuffles on their o-line since the Alex Mack injury, and whilst I think the Browns should win, I don’t like the points. I don’t like picking the Raiders, but in this game I’m going to give it a go.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Colts @ Steelers (+2.5)

I do not know what to make of the Steelers. They are up and down on offence and ranked a measly twenty-sixth in defensive DVOA. Their defence doesn’t look right and the offence isn’t scoring that many points. They put up thirty points last week, but they had two drives that started in the red zone in that game, and I think they might struggle this week because of the opposition. Plus, if they lose they get to keep their alternating win-loss record they’ve currently got going.

I have watched the Colts for two weeks straight now and have been impressed by their defence. They are blitzing a lot on third down, getting pressure, and are much better than I was expecting, or gave them credit for until recently. When you couple this with an offence led by Andrew Luck, you can see why they are 5-2 and heading up the AFC South. They have joined the Ravens in having all three phases of the game ranked inside the top ten by DVOA and I think that they will win this game and cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Packers @ Saints (-1.5)

The Saints could be due a win, and possibly should have had one against the Lions, but there was some horrific angles taken by their secondary in conceding a touchdown to Golden Tate and once again the Saints offence isn’t quite running as smoothly as we have come to expect.

The Packers on the other hand, are up and running after their 1-2 start. Their defence is ranked a credible tenth by DVOA and the offence is looking like the well oiled machine we have come to expect, and have the number two ranking to match. I see this game going only one way, which is worrying as this is a competitive league, but I do think the Packers will win this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Washington @ Cowboys (-9.5)

The Washington season is not going well, they have lots of questions surrounding their quarterbacks, and for this game they are starting Colt McCoy, which can’t be good. Their defence is doing okay, but they’ve just lost Brian Orakpo for the season to a third torn pectoral muscle of his career. The good news is that they are ranked top ten in rush defence by DVOA, which is going to be handy in this game as the Cowboys are pretty good at running the ball. I do not think they can win this game, but the points worry me in this game.

The Cowboys continue to be one of the stories of the season, and took care of business against the Giants at home in what could have been a letdown game after they went to Seattle and beat the Seahawks. I am pretty confident that they are going to win this game, but the points worry me. Washington’s defence is ranked a little worse in pass and a lot better against the run than the Giants, who lost by ten to the Cowboys. It might be that I got bitten by this number last week, but I just have a feeling that in a divisional game Washington might keep it closer. I’m worried about the Colt McCoy experience, and I’m sure that the Cowboys will win, but I’m backing Washington for the cover. Eeep.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys