The Season Changes Everything

15 Thursday Sep 2016

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It is always hard to know how much to read into the offseason and preseason, and then there is a tendency to overreact to the week one results so I’m going to go through the opening slate of games and work through whether I would be worried or not if I was a fan of that team.

Carolina Panthers 20
Denver Broncos 21

The Broncos will be happy to have got a win following the same formula as last year. In fact, the offence looked like it flowed better now that it was working how Gary Kubiak would draw it up if he wasn’t making allowances of an ageing Peyton Manning. The defence still looks good and they will be hoping this is just the start of the defence of last year’s Super Bowl

Fans of the Panthers shouldn’t over react to this loss as Trevor Simian did not look like a rookie, and they did get some pressure, but the offence looked better with the return of Kelvin Benjamin. They can’t keep running Cam Newton as much, particularly with the headshots he was taking or he won’t finish the season, but they are not too far behind yet.

Tamp Bay Buccaneers 31
Atlanta Falcons 24

Getting off to a losing start against a divisional rival is not a great way to start the year, and with the streaky play of last year still a memory, the Falcons will need to sort the defence if they are to do better. Still, Mohammed Sanu leading receivers with eighty yards and a touchdown from five catches gives hope the offence might be more balanced this year.

The Buccaneers got the season off to a good start, with Jameis Winston take a step forward and we will see how far this is going to go, but it looks headed in the right direction now.

Buffalo Bills 7
Baltimore Ravens 13

The Bills got off to a slow start, with an offence that was worryingly unproductive with only one hundred and sixty yards of offence I get the feeling that things are not going to go well in Buffalo, but there is plenty of time to turn it round.

The Ravens ground out a win, and look to have some receivers for Joe Flacco to throw long to this year, but I don’t know if they are going to compete for the playoffs this year.

Chicago Bears 14
Houston Texans 23

The Texans got the win despite barely any production from JJ Watt, but Brock Ossweiler threw for a pair of touchdowns and two hundred yards with one interception. I’m still waiting to see how Ossweiler settles into the offence and this was only against the Bears, but as the only team with a win in the AFC South the Texans have to be happy enough with their start to the season.

The Bears are still a team in transition, and whilst the defence definitely looks like it is heading in the right direction, particularly with their linebackers, this was not the defence that would allow us to truly evaluate how they are progressing.

Cincinnati Bengals 23
New York Jets 22

The Jets biggest worry will be that they didn’t win this game, but their defensive front looked fearsome getting seven sacks, and there offence did enough to win the game if they had not had a field goal blocked and missed an extra point. The addition of Steve McLendon from the Steelers certainly was a potent addition to the already formidable decfensive line, and Quincy Enunwa was effective at receiver give the Fitzpatrick more options to throw to.

The Bengals struggled with protection on offence, but AJ Green and Andy Dalton did enough to win, whilst the defence limited the Jets receivers to relatively modest totals. This was not an easy way to open the season, and they will be very happy to have got the win as they head on to Pittsburgh for one of the marquee matchups of week two.

Cleveland Browns 10
Philidelphia Eagles 29

The Eagles got off to a better start than I was expecting, and whilst I’m not prepared to declare him the future after one game against a poor Browns team, Carson Wentz got his NFL career off to a winning start. He looked poised in the pocket as he registered a triple digit passer rating, justifying the faith the font office had in him when they traded Sam Bradford away. The defence is likely to take a little time to settle in, but Fletcher Cox has already registered his first sack of the season, and I wouldn’t bet against Jim Schwartz forming them into a strong unit.

The Browns thought that they could turn round Robert Griffin’s career, but sadly the oft injured quarterback broke the coracoid bone in his left shoulder, which may or may not require surgery. Already the Browns are saying that he will miss at least the next eight games. This might lead to an improvement in the passing game given that Josh McCown is a very competent backup who will throw a more accurate pass and so we’ll likely see more than the heave it up to Coleman or Pryor of RGIII. Both receivers are raw but intriguing prospects. I’m still prepared to back the process in the long run, but it does look as if this season is going to be painful and there will be some who will be wondering about their decision to trade the number two pick and not take Wentz given how good he looked in his first game.

Packers 27
Jaguars 23

The Jaguars gave a very creditable account of themselves, but ultimately lost against a Packers team that are still finding their way. Still, the only team in their division to get a win were the Texans and they won’t be worried too much about this loss unless it becomes a habit.

The Packers offence still looked a bit like it did last season, but it is perhaps not surprising that Jordy Nelson is still knocking off the rust as he comes back from last year’s significant injury. They look to be favourites for the division, but they will want the offence to improve over the coming weeks.

Vikings 25
Titans 15

The worry for the Titans is that they went into half time with a ten-zero lead, and ended up losing the game as their defence fell apart. I’m not necessary sold on exotic smash-mouth football as I don’t believe you setup the pass with the run, but that you setup your offence by being convincingly dangerous at both running and passing the football. I do like that the Titans are trying to do something different in terms of the trend in the league being passing offence, but you need the play-action deep threat to make sure that the opposition don’t just stuff the box. There’s a version of this offence that can work, look how effectively the Panthers run the ball with a myriad of options, but I’m not sure the Titan’s are there yet.

We knew that the Vikings’ defence was good, and they kept the team in this game, but it is slightly worrying that Adrian Peterson only got thirty-one yards on nineteen carries. Still, Stefon Diggs did manage over a hundred yards receiving and with a bit more time to settle Sam Bradford in, the Vikings will hope to be competitive in their new stadium, even if the Packers are not the easiest of visitors.

San Diego Chargers 27
Kansas City Chiefs 33

The Chiefs defence is banged up, and I am somewhat worried about their loss of Sean Smith over the offseason as the secondary only really came together last season once he returned from injury. Still, it does seem that Andy Reid has the trust of his players, and Alex Smith looked very good as he led the Chiefs back in the second half to win the game.

The Chargers were doing so well in until their injury curse struck again when they lost Keenan Allen and things just seemed to fall apart for them. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t’ concerned for their season, but they do seem to have improved from last year and it is too early to write them off yet.

Oakland Raiders 35
New Orleans Saints 34

As I feared, the Saints defence was porous as it doesn’t look to have improved significantly from last year and so it looks to be another season of Drew Brees trying score enough points to keep them in games, but how this will go I do not know.

The Raiders got off to a winning start, and there is no shame in giving up points to a Drew Brees led offence, but they will want to be more in control of games if they are to push for playoff this season, but things are definitely looking like they are heading in the right direction. I love the aggression of going for the two point conversion to win the game, and the NFL is a better league for having the Raiders be competitive.

Miami Dolphins 10
Seattle Seahawks 12

The Seahawks offensive line is indeed a problem, which in this game held them back and got Russell Wilson a sprained ankle. The defence is still going to be good, and they will be competitive, but we will have to see if the offensive line is bad enough to be an Achilles heels. For the record, I loved their approach to the national anthem, by standing arm in arm they made a strong statement of unity.

The Dolphins should have won this game, but for a dropped pass by Kenny Stills and blocked field goal, but the defence did enough to stifle the Seahawks even if the offence sputtered. The worry for me is how that defence is going to fair against better passing teams, and we’ll know more when we see how they do against the Patriots.

New York Giants 20
Dallas Cowboys 19

The Cowboys got a solid performance from Dak Prescott, who didn’t turn the football over and kept them in the game, but Ezekiel Elliot struggled to match up to the expectation placed upon the rookie running back. These are one of the teams that I’m not sure how to read because there are too many unknowns, and not being sure how the Giants are going to be this season, I’ll just have to see how they go over the next couple of weeks.

It appears that I was overly sceptical about the Giants offseason moves, and whilst I’m not saying I was entirely wrong, their defence does appear to have been better than I was expecting. I’m looking forward to finally getting to see them play to see for myself, and so I might have to watch them soon.

Detroit Lions 39
Indianapolis Colts 35

The Colts will be relieved that Andrew Luck looked like the quarterback that everyone expects him to be, but the defence looks to be a problem, at least until they Vontae Davis back and even then this unit could cause them problems. It is good to see Luck playing well, and he is a lot younger than Brees so there is plenty of time to win a Super Bowl, but the Colts really need to build consistently around him if they want to make the most of having a second franchise quarterback in a row.

The Detroit Lions won this game off the back of a more assertive performance by Matthew Stafford, who made the most of the balance that Marvin Jones and Golden Tate gave him at receiver. We will have to see how the defence shapes up, but I have faith that under Jim Bob Cooter the offence will continue to develop.

New England Patriots 23
Arizona Cardinals 21

The Cardinals will be incredibly disappointed to lose this game against the Patriots given the players they were missing. However, whilst Carson Palmer was not looking the sharpest he ever has, the Cardinals should have won this game were it not for another missed field goal and both Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson looked great. The secondary looked like they were struggling opposite Patrick Peterson, but I have faith the defence will improve as this coaching staff will not let things stand still and are too good.

What else can we say about the Patriots? The game plan worked as usual, the offence did enough despite the players they were missing, whilst the defence once again is really good with Chris Long enjoying life on a competitive team. With the most difficult game of the four without Brady out the way, it’s very possible that they could be 4-0 by the time he returns.

Pittsburgh Steelers 38
Washington 16

The big story I missed during the podcast recording was the amount of money Washington paid Josh Norman to have him playing zone whilst Antonio Brown ran riot on the other side of the field. I have heard some ex-players questioning why he didn’t demand to cover Brown, but I confess it would not a challenge I would fancy. I wasn’t expecting Kirk Cousins to maintain the form he had at the end of last season, but he will need to be more consistent if he is to help Washington get back to the playoffs.

I knew the Steelers were going to be scary once they got all their players back, but they didn’t even wait for that with a performance that underlines just how good Antonio Brown is, and the skill Ben Roethlisberger has in finding him deep. They already look like one of the teams to beat in the AFC so of course the Bengals are visiting next week in what should be one of the games of week two. Yes I am nervous already.

Los Angeles Rams 0
San Francisco 49ers 28

The 49ers surprised everyone by not just being competitive, but by shutting out the Rams offence as they ran out easy winner in this one. The fact that Dan wants me to watch the coaching tape to find out what happens says everything, but whilst I’m not totally changing my mind on how they will do this season, clearly they are going to be more competitive than I expected this season and I am curious to see how the team develop under Chip Kelly and what he has learned after his experience in Philidelphia.

The Rams didn’t even manage agricultural manure seven and nine football. The offence clearly sputtered, with some very worrying running figures for Todd Gurley stretching back to the tail of last season. The big question that is going to surround them is that the first round quarterback that they traded for didn’t even dress for this game. I am not actually totally against this, as they gain nothing by throwing Jared Goff in before he is ready, and everything to lose, but I’m sure no one will be happy about this state of affairs. We learned through Hard Knocks that the Rams’ defensive line coach is pretty terrifying, and so I’m sure they will be better next week. In fact, given the Rams will be playing their first game in LA, Jeff Fisher will be hoping for a big response from his players.

 

Finally let’s take a look at tonight’s game:

Jets @ Bills (-0.5)

With all that I have written above, I can only pick the Jets to win this one, especially getting half a point.

Gee’s Pick:           Jets
Dan’s Pick:           Jets

The Season Starts, Panthers at Broncos, and Week 1 Picks

11 Sunday Sep 2016

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And so my offseason work meets the start of the regular season as I recap what I have been watching, the season opener and then pick the rest of the week one games.

I have been following the Broncos during the offseason, where their defence has continued to look good despite losing some players, and Trevor Siemian beat out Mark Sanchez and rookie Paxton Lynch to get the starting quarterback job. With the ongoing saga regarding Von Miller’s contract, the cutting of Mark Sanchez and Ronnie Hillman, GM John Elway has certainly not been afraid to make the big decision and whilst I think there will be some come down from last season with a seventh round pick starting under centre for the first time, I do think the Broncos will be competitive again this season.

The Carolina Panthers travelled to the Denver Broncos to open the season on Thursday, and in a sign of how Dan and my picks are likely to go, the Broncos won after the Panthers missed a last seconds field goal giving us our first losses of the season.

This ended up being a close game with the Panthers starting off well and going into the half with a ten point lead, but ultimately falling short as the Broncos came back in the second half. That the game was close with two such good defences should not be surprise, but I’ll start with the offences.

The Broncos offence looked surprising good for most of the game, although it seemed to function better between the thirty yard lines than it did at getting the ball into the end zone. For the most part Trevor Siemian didn’t look like a rookie quarterback, and certainly he was better than his stat line might suggest. However, whilst for the first interception Siemian failed to get the ball over Star Lotulelei on a screen pass, and the big defensive tackle tipped the ball up for Thomas Davis to make the interception, on the second interception he was hit by Kurt Coleman who had a free run at Siemian on a blitz and hit the QB as he threw enabling Bene Benwikere to intercept the ball. Yet the Broncos were able to move the ball throughout the game, particularly on the ground where CJ Anderson was able to rack up ninety-two yards on twenty carries. Certainly the rookies in the Broncos backfield will look back on their first NFL regular season carries differently with Devnotae Booker fumbling the ball and causing a turnover on his, whilst fullback Andy Janovich took his twenty-eight yards to score the Broncos first touchdown of the season. Even with his modest eighteen of twenty-six completions for one hundred and seventy-eight yards, there were good throws by Siemian and with the defence of the Broncos playing tough they will remain.

The Panthers meanwhile look like the same team as last year when running the ball, with Cam Newton gaining fifty-four yards to complement Jonathan Stewart’s sixty-four and Ted Ginn picking up twenty on an end-around carry. In the passing game Newton was happy to have Kelvin Benjamin back, connecting with him six times on twelve attempts as well as with Greg Olson for seven catches. However, Newton still doesn’t have the prettiest of throwing motions and took a couple of hits that would worry any coach. It is hard to read too much into how they are going to go this season as they were facing another strong Broncos defence, but they did give up three sacks and so the offence line might be a worry again at the tackle spot.

If the Broncos defence didn’t quite pick up from where they did last year, they were still very good with some familiar face making some key plays. They may have been a bit softer against the run, but both Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware got sacks and Chris Harris tipped and intercepted a ball in an impressively athletic play. In fact, there were no signs of Ware having any problems with his back despite what had been said in preseason as he bent low and got round the corner for his solo sack, and he also shared in a second later in the game. With a rookie quarterback, the Broncos will be leaning on this side of the ball and the running attack and for this game that certainly worked.

The Panthers defence looked solid but not spectacular, and whilst you could see flashes of Kuechly’s usual excellences, plus they did generate the interceptions I mentioned earlier, it was not exactly a dominant performance. The rookie corners seemed to hold up okay, but there will be tougher tests down the road and we will just have to see if this group can play up to the standards that were set last year.

Moving back from the opening game, I have two more teams to cover in terms of the preseason before moving on to our picks for the rest of this week’s games.

For the Cincinnati Bengals, apart from a couple of rookies getting injured, things seem to have gone relatively smoothly through the preseason, although AJ Green limping out of the week three game was very nerve racking. This may be misplaced confidence, but I have faith in the system and so despite losing two receivers that played a lot of snaps, the new receivers are already looking the part with Tyler Boyd seeming to fit in seamlessly and rookie free agent Alex Erickson looking effective both out of the slot and as a kick/punt returner, which led to long term Bengal returner Brandon Tate being cut when the Bengals were getting down to seventy-five. The defence is getting older, but there does seem to be youth waiting to come through, but I think the Bengals will be in the playoff hunt, and I just hope the steps Andy Dalton took last year were as much to do with his development as Hue Jackson’s coaching.

The Rams have had an offseason of upheaval as they move to LA and had the Hard Knocks crew filming them. It has not been a brilliant series, but the big worry for the Rams has to be that the first round quarterback that they traded up to get has not even won the backup job for the first game of the season. I am not against bringing on quarterbacks slowly, but this has to be a worry given all they gave up to get Jared Goff. The Rams defence looked to be coming together finally in game three of the preseason, and certainly I am expecting a monster year from Aaron Donald. However, whilst Todd Gurley looks to be a staple of the Rams’ offence, what will be key is whether some of the receivers can step up and offer more in the passing games than they have over recent seasons. I have quite liked the look of rookie receiver Pharoh Cooper, but with Tavon Austin seemingly more a gadget play threat than a true number one receiver, they will need more than a rookie showing flashes to improve that side of the ball. I think the Rams may well be heading for another battle to get above 8-8, but in a tough division they could easily fall short of the playoffs again.

And now on to the rest of my week one picks:

Buccaneers @ Falcons (-3.5)

The Falcons haven’t grabbed the imagination, and whilst I like the pedigree of their head coach in Dan Quinn, his side of the ball is not fixed yet and the move of Vic Beasly to strong side linebacker is troubling given that he was supposed to be a first round pass rusher. The offence has struggled for consistency since Matt Ryan lost tight end great Tony Gonzalez, but he does have one of the best receivers in the game in Julio Jones. However, Jones can’t do everything on offence, and the Falcons could do with lowering his workload as he is taking a ton of punishments with the number of catches he is making. They will hope that the signing of Mohamed Sanu will help with this, but the proof will be seen during the season.

The Buccaneers were so keen to keep continuity for their new franchise quarterback Jameis Winson that they fired Lovie Smith and elevated offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter to head coach. They have the prize for the worst draft pick when they moved up to draft a kicker in the second round, and he has already missed kicks in the pre-season, generating a lot of extra pressure for the young player. They will be hoping that the supposed better kicking and the improvement of Winston will be enough for them to win more of the close games they lost last season, but as ever only time will tell.

I like the Bucs on the road in this one to be competitive, and possibly even win so I have been tempted into backing them on the road thanks to the extra half point the Falcons are giving up. I hope I’m not mistaken.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Bills @ Ravens (-3.5)

The Ravens have injury problems already at tight end, but still have a long way to go before they are as banged up as last season. I think this could be a trying season for the Ravens as there are sections of the team that are still old, but I expect them to have more wins that last season and they are never an easy opponent for anyone.

The Bills have been suffering the usual drama that seems to surround a Rex Ryan team, and with injuries to key rookies on defence just being the start to their problems, I have feeling the Bills will be missing the postseason again. I do like Tyrod Taylor, and think it’s likely that the Bill offence will be pretty good again, but whilst Taylor will want to beat the team he started with, I can’t see it happening.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Bears @ Texans (-4.5)

The Texans had a draft that was all about find other receiver to play across from DeAndre Hopkins to help him and free agent quarterback Brock Osweiler. The worry for Texans’ fans will be JJ Watt’s back injury, and how he will look in the early part of the season that he was not necessarily expected to see. That said, the word is that Jadeveon Clowney is looking the best he ever has for the Texans and they have to be hoping that without the quarterback carousel they had last season that a strong playoff push is possible.

The Bears are still a way away from such hope, and whilst I think they are heading in the right direction, I don’t think this season will see much of an improvement in terms of wins than last season. The defence is looking like it is beginning to shape up, but with a new offensive coordinator and the ever talented but interception prone Jay Cutler at quarterback, I’m not sure they have enough to cover this spread on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Bengals @ Jets (+1.5)

The Jets have one of the older rosters in the league, and seemed to cost their starting quarterback a lot of practice reps in the offseason in a negotiating tactic that didn’t seem to net them much of a reduction in cost and has to be a bad decision overall. They still have a formidable defensive front, but I think they could slip as a team, particularly as the only AFC East team not to get a game against the Patriots whilst Tom Brady is suspended.

I still have faith that the Bengals opening up the season on the road can win this one despite them having to use new receiving options on offence, and I just hope this one doesn’t bite me for personal reasons.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Browns @ Eagles (-6.5)

The Eagles have had a torrid offseason, culminating in the trade of their starting quarterback Sam Bradford to the Vikings last weekend. I think I can see what the plan is, and I am very much looking forward to seeing Fletcher Cox let loose in Jim Schwartz’s defence, but with Carson Wentz suddenly leap frogging Chase Daniels to start at quarterback, I think it could be a long season.

The Browns seem to have a renewed vigour with a new front office approach and Hue Jackson as their head coach. They have to be hoping that the Browns’ young players show enough to convince owner Jimmy Haslam to have some faith in the process and stick with it long enough for it to bear fruit.

I am definitely looking forward to this game, and certainly intend to watch it, and I think it will be much more competitive than this line suggests.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Packers @ Jaguars (+4.5)

The Jaguars are all about this season, with Gus Bradley really needing to reward the Jaguars’ owner’s faith in him with at least a challenge for the playoffs. This is the team that keep getting tipped for a break out year, but with a string of moves and picks on defence to go along with a developing offence I can see it finally happening.

The Packers keep steady with their draft and develop philosophy, but the insistence on relying on receivers to get open with one on one routes last season was frustrating as they weren’t able to capitalise on having probably the best quarterback in the NFL. They look set to take the NFC North this year, but they will have their eyes on bigger prizes.

This is a big swing in points to the Jaguars, and whilst I think the Packers may well win this game, I just fancy the Jaguars to cover. This may bite me as I seem to remember this happening a lot with the Jags last year, but it hasn’t put me off in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Vikings @ Titans (+2.5)

The Titans are very much focussing on the running game, with the addition of DeMarco Murray and rookie Derrick Henry at running back, and announcing their offensive philosophy as exotic smash-mouth football. If they stick with Mike Mularkey as head coach then at least they will have a consistent plan with an offseason to implement it, and they will certainly hope the running game will help keep second year quarterback Marcus Mariota healthy. There have been some surprising names let go, but clearly Mularkey is focussing on running this team his way and only time will tell if this yields an increase in wins.

The Vikings must still feel they have the team to push for a Super Bowl, or they would not have traded a first round pick and anywhere between a fourth and a second round pick for Sam Bradford. They have a strong defence, and should have won their playoff game last year barring a missed field goal. Their new stadium will see a competitive season thanks to Mike Zimmer’s excellent defence, and he will keep this tem focussed despite losing their franchise quarterback to a horrible injury, but it will be an uphill battle all the way. Still I expect them to win an ugly game against the Titan, which will be something of a throwback given the likely focus on running the ball that both teams will display.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Chargers @ Chiefs (-7.5)

The Chiefs defence looks to be struggling with injuries to their key pass rushers, but I still expect this team to at the top of the division, pushing for a playoff place and more. For all of his clock management issues, Andy Reid is a really good football coach and I expect this team to be there or there about come the end of the season.

The Chargers are not nearly as stable, and have not managed to win consistently despite having one of the better quarterback in the game. For a lot of last season their offence only functioned because of how quickly Philip Rivers could get rid of the ball, and with their first round pick holding out for nearly the entirety of the pre-season I worry about what kind of year Rivers will have in terms of wins.

I don’t think the Chargers are going to get off to a winning start, but I’m not sure the Chiefs will run away with this game either.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Raiders @ Saints (-1.5)

The big question f or me this year is whether the Saints defence can improve enough for them to be competitive, and whilst it will be hard for them to be as bad as last year, there were so many holes and it has been such a problem for the Saints that I see them falling short of the playoffs again this year.

The Raiders seem poised to make a push for the playoffs, and whilst I’m worried that this may be the same kind of hope as the Jaguars that doesn’t quite materialise, they have been drafting well and with some good free agent signings for the offensive line and defence, I do expect them to pushing for the playoffs and look forward to seeing if they get there or not. I do expect them to win this one though.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Dolphins @ Seahawks (-9.5)

The Seahawks look to be set for another strong season despite the defence losing more depth, and an offensive line that remains a huge question. The development of quarterback Russel Wilson will need to continue as he gets handed full control of the offence with the retirement of Marshawn Lynch, but certainly his form at the end of last season will give them hope.

The Dolphins come into this year with a more coherent plan for the offence, but the back seven of their defence worries me and I think they may well fall short of the playoffs this year. I’m picking the Dolphins to cover as the Seahawks are giving away a lot of points, but I don’t expect them to win and I think it could be a long season for the fans in Miami.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Giants @ Cowboys (-3.5)

It might be time for Tony Romo to retire, but certainly Jerry Jones is having none of it, and at least in Dak Prescott they look to have a capable backup and very possibly a future starter. The defence is still a worry for me, but with that offensive line and Ezekiel Elliott the Cowboys will be looking to dominate in the running game and will give the Cowboys a fighting chance.

The Giants made a lot of moves to shore up their defence, which does not fill me with a lot of hope as the winners of free agency rarely seem to do that well when the season rolls around. This is one of those wait and see teams, but with the all the problems they had on the roster last season, I think there is more wrong than just Tom Coughlin who the owners were clearly pointing the finger at when they fired him and stuck with everyone else. I really think there is more to it than that.

We will have to see how this game goes, and I don’t feel that strongly, but I’m backing the Cowboy reluctantly at home as I just don’t trust the Giants.

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Lions @ Colts (-5.5)

Everyone is expecting a better season for the Colts, but whilst I prefer the intentions of their draft, the line hasn’t necessarily gelled yet and I’m still not sure where the pass rush will come on defence or how they’ll cope without the injured corner Vontae Davis. I’m not saying there season won’t be better, but I’m certainly not ready to pencil them in for a division win just yet.

The Lions are a team in flux, but I quite like the direction of their offence with Jim Bob Cooter changing things when he became offensive coordinator last season, and I think the pairing of Golden Tate and Marvin Jones at receiver will do well even if no one can replace Calvin Johnson. The defence hopes to be healthier at defensive tackle, but I’m not sure how much of a push this team will make overall. However, I’m certainly not ready to back the Colts giving away 5.5 points yet.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Patriots @ Cardinals (-5.5)

The Cardinals are in win now mode, and with the additions of Chandler Jones and Robert Nkemdiche they look to have an improved pass rush for a defence that already blitzed as much as anyone in the league. You know that a Bruce Arians offence will be taking plenty of shots downfield, and running back David Johnson will be looking to build on his excellent rookie season. I think they will be in contention at the end of the year, with the only questions being about keeping ageing quarterback Carson Palmer healthy and hoping there aren’t any big game legacies from last year’s playoff loss.

The Patriots are everyone’s tip to win the AFC East despite Tom Brady being suspended for four games. Certainly the addition of Martellus Bennett as a second tight end has excited people about the Patriots double tight end sets for when Brady returns. However, this is pretty much as tough an opening game for this team as they could have been set. I think that Belichick will win out in the end, but it is not unusual for his teams to start slow and with a quarterback making his first NFL regular season start I think the Patriots start off with a loss, even if there won’t be too many more to follow.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Steelers @ Washington (+3.5)

Washington really gained momentum at the end of last year to win their division, and with another solid draft and the signing of Josh Norman, I expect them to be competitive in their division again this year as Kirk Cousins tries to earn himself a franchise quarterback’s contract.

When the Steelers have all their players on offence they are truly terrifying, and their defence is beginning to take shape, but I do think the suspensions will take their toll early. They could easily make me look stupid as Antonia Brown is the best receiver in the game, but I’m not sure that they will run away as winners in this game and so I’m taking the home underdog to cover in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Rans @ 49ers (+2.5)

The 49ers woes will continue into this year if for no other reason than it takes time to rebuild a roster. It will be fascinating to see how Chip Kelly does and what he has learnt from what happened in Philidelphia, but I could very easily see the 49ers picking first at next year’s draft.

The Rams will want to be making fans in LA by winning, and despite the worries that I laid out earlier, I think that they will win their opener in San Francisco.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Photographic Proof and a Quick Pick

08 Thursday Sep 2016

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So, as happens from time to time, my carefully laid out writing time hit a real life speed bump, so instead of the piece I was expecting to finish today, I shall give you photographic proof of Dan and I interviewing real life NFL players for the podcast that will be dropping this evening, and our picks for the season’s opening game tonight. Football is here!

Carolina Panthers @ Denver Broncos (+2.5)

It’s been years since the season has started with a rerun of the Super Bowl difference, but there has still been a fair amount of turnover in the rosters and most importantly, Denver will be giving Trevor Siemian his first NFL start.

I think that the Broncos will have a competitive season thanks to a defence that still looks good despite the losses of several players, but it is doubtful they will be able to play as well as last year and so some regression should be expected on that side of the ball. Furthermore, whilst statistically Peyton Manning was a shell of his former self, Manning still had his football brain and in the playoffs having excepted his limited role was still eeking out what advantages he could through making sure the Broncos were in the right run play and managing the clock. All of this will be replaced by a green quarterback who will be looking in first instance to not lose the game, particularly as he doesn’t have the strongest arm in the world.

The Panthers will be trying to demonstrate that they have a counter to the plan the Broncos used last time, but given what a narrow path to success the Broncos had to follow, plus a Panther team that will want to prove a point even if it won’t be revenge for a Super Bowl loss, I think the Panthers will run out winners. The front seven of their defence remains formidable even if they will be starting a lot of rookies in the secondary, but with the league MVP Cam Newton getting new passing options, they should be strong on that site of the ball although there are still questions about their tackles, particularly facing a pass rush like the one possessed by the Broncos.

I’m not thrilled about the Broncos getting points, but I’ll pick this game for the Panthers, and I’m really looking forward to seeing in the start of the season.

Gee’s Pick:           Panthers
Dan’s Pick:           Panthers

Dreams with a Deadline – Process Over Outcome

04 Sunday Sep 2016

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I want to try something a little different this week before we get into the grind of the NFL regular season, which is why I am cross posting this across both my blogs, so if you’re not a sports fan please bear with me for a little bit as things will come around.

For the last few weeks I have been following the pre-season of three NFL teams and generally getting excited about the start of a new season. However, this is the weekend that as the final cuts are made, for some careers are ending and for others dreams.

As you watch Hard Knocks (for the general reader a series following an NFL team through training camp) the shift in focus goes from a team coming together to the tension that surrounds them as players start to get cut and the business of football really kicks in. Something like two percent of those who play college football make it to the NFL and the average career is a little over three years. The offseason roster goes from ninety to fifty-three this weekend, and whilst the practice squad has expanded over the last couple of years, when you look at those numbers multiplied over thirty-two teams with very few alternative outlets to play American football professionally there are a lot of people left hanging now.

Once the season starts we will start talking about players who are bad or good, but in reality you have to be pretty exceptional to even make it into a training camp, yet alone make a successful career of the sport of American football.

So what happens next? Some will hold on for a call once the injuries start, some will keep themselves fit and hope to try again next year, and some will have to walk away from their dream. Something they have worked very hard to achieve, with fine margins and no way to keep going.

Those who do not like sport will find such sacrifices hard to comprehend, even if they understand that for some this represents their best chance of making something out of their life. Even those of us who love to lift or run as amateurs struggle to truly understand the pressure that a large number of these players will have been going through. This isn’t just winning or losing; this is about putting food on the table for their families, a shot at something bigger than themselves, and chasing a goal with a deadline.

That deadline is the bit that can be truly terrifying. I remember in my twenties feeling a dread every time my birthday rolled around, looking at the things I had and hadn’t achieved and holding myself up against some idealised timetable. I’m a bit more relaxed about things these days, partly through having done things like publishing a book this year, and partly as I have come to understand that I have a restless nature. A couple of days ago a friend halted halfway through a sentence as they realised they were basically calling me crazy.

An NFL blog, writing books, an NFL podcast, a band, a pretty busy job – all the things as I like to say. I found it funny because I didn’t disagree, and they left out the lifting, the runs, the morning stretches and core work, the out of hours support, walks with my partner, the list goes on.

I have come to appreciate the trying of things, but whilst there are things that get sacrificed, I’m not in a position that I have had to sacrifice everything to pursue one goal. There’s some that will talk about how you can achieve anything if you pursue their dream. For some this is true, and I can see that it is offered as a genuine encouragement, but usually by people who have beaten the odds. If I can, then so can you. The problem is that, if you’re focussed on the result, then anything other than achieving that result, and it is all too easy to not get the most out of what you’re doing at the time. And if you sacrifice everything for one goal, then there’s a lot to pick up if that gamble doesn’t pay off.

That’s not to say goal setting isn’t important, or that you shouldn’t try to do what you love, but how you get there is kind of important. If this is sounding dangerously close to one of those life is a journey not a destination inspirational posters, then that’s because it is. So why am I bringing it up now? The answer is podcasts and how I got very lucky this week.

Podcasts feature heavy in this next section because of a discussion between Jonah Keri and Katie Nolan on Keri’s podcast. At the end of every episode Jonah Keri asks his guest for an inspiration thing that has helped his guest. It can be as serious or as silly as they like, and one of the themes that keeps cropping up is that if you love doing something, find a way to do it. Make the thing that you want to do, and you will get better at it and the success may or may not come, but do it for the love anyway.

The reason that these blogs exist are because as I got older, the idea of being a writer wouldn’t go away. I was not one of those children who had a clearly defined idea of what they wanted to do and pursued it through a specific path in education. I kept fiddling with stories and ideas, and then really started working on my writing as I got more serious about it.

The NFL blog started because I loved the NFL and I wanted to work on something that would help me with the mechanics of writing. The NFL would always be something to write about, I was following anyway and it was an extension of my love of the sport.

Along the way, I discovered what I love writing about in relation to football, read more, listened to more podcasts, watched more games. A self-perpetuating interest developed. Not only that, but I learned how to manage my writing time, when I could squeeze out extra words if I needed to, and in the process learnt how to write fiction in more focused bursts without waiting for inspiration.

I read about coaching, and developed my thoughts on this, stealing from Pete Carroll’s book about developing a philosophy, and borrowing the idea from great Bill Walsh that the score takes care of itself. I still haven’t distilled my philosophy down to a handy twenty-five word summary as Carroll asks, but I know the name.

Process Over Outcome.

The idea that you cannot control the outcomes of situation, but if you focus on making the process as good as possible, then you maximise the potential for things to go well.

I’m still working on selling my children’s book, I have a lot to learn. Mostly because I was focussed on making the book as good as I can through the editing and production process.

It is also important to not be afraid of making mistakes, you have to learn from them, but if you’re paralysed by the possibility of failing then you’re not focussing on the process and you might not even try.

The Wrong Football podcast started last season when my friend Dan came to me, and said he’d like to do a podcast with me, and my response was sure, but you have to produce it as I can find time to sit down and record but I’m too tied up with the site to do much more. I approached it like I do being in a band, I have to trust the other people to do their job, go with the best idea, it’s working in a collaborative creative process. Something I’m used to with music and something I have written before about on my writer’s blog.

Thanks to this process, on Friday night I got to shake the hands of a Super Bowl winner. In fact, a pretty significant one for me, because this wasn’t any old Super Bowl winner, but a member of the legendary 1985 Chicago Bears. The team that caused the surge of interest in American football in the UK in the mid 1980s, and pretty much the reason that I am fan of the game. Things come full circle. It was a great experience, certainly for Dan and I, who were very nervous to begin with as this was our first live interview for the pod, but we settled quickly enough because after all, we were talking football.

The interview should be coming in next week’s pod, and will be accompanied by a second interview another ex NFL player Nick Ferguson who was also a great guy, very happy to talk to us and evangelise over the game. It was a pretty incredible evening before we even got to the NFL event itself.

I’m very happy for the pod, and I hope the interviews come across well. I also look back on it, and I think to my own brief stints being interviewed about my book. I don’t see my purpose there as being a hard sell, I just try to be enthusiastic about what I have created. If I wasn’t enthusiastic then I wouldn’t have created it. You hope that your enthusiasm sparks something in others, at the end of the day isn’t that what we’re all hoping for.

The truth is though, that all of these things are interconnected. In a way, the play of Shaun Gayle led to me writing a book, and writing meant that I got to shake his hand. This interconnectedness is part of life, the complexity of the world that surrounds can be baffling, and sometimes it is nice to stare at a sports field and pretend it is as simple as winning and losing. However, once you start to study it the complexity soon picks up again.

I’ll soon be predicting games and writing about the league. I’ll also be working on a sequel to the published book, running, lifting, doing all the things. Following various dreams, trying to ignore the deadlines. Process over outcome. It’s worked for me so far.

Rams, Broncos, and Special Preseason Week 3 Guests the Miami Dolphins

28 Sunday Aug 2016

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We are twelve days away from the start of the 2016 season, and the preseason week three games where the starters will see the most game time have already started. I will take you through the remaining week two games I have watched, as well as the visit of the Atlanta Falcons to Dan’s Miami Dolphins taking in my quarterback curse and general thoughts.

There is always a ton of news at this time of year, each team still has ninety players on its roster until the Tuesday deadline for cuts down to seventy-five. There are injuries, worries about the team, and a lot of fan angst as the positivity of the offseason hits the stark reality of playing games in the NFL. Already the Buffalo Bills are struggling with injury to numerous players as Rex Ryan’s team seem to beset by difficulty as they approach the season.

Meanwhile, Tony Romo has a fractured vertebrae in his back, meaning that Cowboys fans will be getting an extend look at whether Dak Prescott can be a starter in the NFL as Romo is not expected back until mid-season. Prescott’s play so far would give some confidence, but it is always best to treat play in the preseason with a healthy amount of scepticism. You will hear people talk about vanilla plans in preseason, but that’s overstating things somewhat. However, coaches have teams work on what they want to work on, so blitz heavy teams will blitz as they will be getting ready for the season. What is not happening, is the detailed team specific game planning that goes into every regular season game, and so whilst flashing in preseason is definitely an encouraging sign, the test, and particularly for quarterbacks, is whether you can adjust and counter what your opposition put in place to specifically stop you. Any player that demonstrates a weakness in their game can expect to see a heavy dose of whatever counters or exposes it until said player can show that they have cleared it up.

So on to the games as I get myself into season shape with game watching, and hopefully step up the number of articles next week.

The LA Rams managed to get a second win hosting the Kansas City Chiefs despite going in down at half time again. In fact, things got off to a bad start for them as they gave up a touchdown on the opening drive of the game for a second game in a row. For those watching Hard Knocks, you will have seen Alec Ogletree’s frustration  as well as him fighting to get the first team defence lined up correctly. That said, the Rams had a good response with Case Keenum leading the Rams’ offence straight back up the field to score a touchdown, although the plaudits ought to go to Todd Gurley who ran the ball effectively and scored the equalising touchdown. The coaches had seen enough and pulled Gurley from the game before he could get hurt.

The Rams defence then stiffened to get the ball immediately on a three and out, giving the offence the ball. The Rams moved the ball well again, with Case Keenum passing to Pharoh Cooper for a go ahead touchdown and so Keenum was finished for the game.

The big question for Rams quarterback Jared Goff is when will he be ready, but whilst the coaching staff are seeing progress, they also are stating that you can see rookie mistakes, and given that on his first two plays Goff threw an incomplete pass, then was sacked and fumbled the ball, you can see what they mean. That said, he did finish the game completing eight of his twelve attempts for eighty-two yards and threw his first touchdown as a professional to running back Malcolm Brown.

We will have to see how this team fare on the road, and how much momentum the Rams can carry into the regular season, but if nothing else, their attendance has been huge so far and they will want to make the most of the interest by winning games if they are to make the transition to LA successful.

Following a week one win, the Broncos lost their second game of preseason as they welcomed the San Francisco 49ers to Denver.

It feels like there is only one question hanging over the Broncos this offseason, despite the loss of some players on defence, and all the usual roster skirmishes, the big question for this team is who is going to start at quarterback.

For the second week in a row, I sat watching a Broncos starting quarterback thinking that this might work out and they threw an interception. This week it was Trevor Siemian that I managed to retroactively curse, but it is a big step that he got the start and looks to be making a strong case to be the opening night starter. Certainly Mark Sanchez didn’t help his cause by losing two fumbles. In fact, it may even be possible that he is being pressurised by rookie project Paxton Lynch who threw two touchdowns and an interception, although he does still look like a rookie and held onto the ball a bit too long for my liking at times. There was even some talk on commentary about giving Lynch the start next week to see if has the goods, but I would suggest it is a little early for such a move, yet I do feel that Trevor Siemian could well be the starter come week one.

The Broncos starting defence looks good, and even if the team did lose this game, I do think the Broncos are going to have another strong based on another good year on defence, and a run game that looks better than last year with CJ Anderson looking in good shape already and strong players behind him that could make for a good rotation to support an inexperienced quarterback.

The Broncos played the Rams last night, and I look forward to seeing how they went over the next couple of days. As a result of this fixture I had an extra game that I could watch, and Dan asked me to take a look at the Dolphins, who conveniently hosted the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday night.

I still have questions about the way the Miami Dolphins have approached their offseason, and in particular how they are building their offensive line given that of the three interior linemen that started the game, all of them are inexperienced and/or changing permission. However, new Dolphins head coach Adam Gase is a quality offensive coordinator who got the Dolphins job off the back of good work with Jay Cutler and Peyton Manning.

The Dolphins started the game playing no huddle offense, and did look to be making good use of Ryan Tannehill skills, moving him with roll outs, running the ball, and passing. However, he again fell to the, I think this going to be good Gee curse, and as soon as I thought how good he looked, Tannehill immediately threw an interception.

However, the Dolphins ran out pretty convincing winners in this game, thanks to an ability to move the ball and a defence that restricted the Falcons all game and didn’t allow a touchdown.

There are questions at running back with Jay Ajayi battling health problems, Arian Foster looking good but at age thirty and a recent history of injuries you probably can’t rely on him all season. I do however like Damien Williams who has caught my eye before, but who has never broken out, yet in this game he had a couple of nice runs and scored a touchdown.

My worry for the Dolphins is the depth, and whilst I like what I saw, the defence still seems to be thin past the starters, and I’m not sure about the secondary barring Reshad Jones who is a really good safety.

I did like the look of second year defensive end Julius Warmsley who got a sack and showed good penetration on a couple of other plays, but whether this will be enough to get him off the practice squad and onto the roster only time will tell. Fellow second year end Cleyon Leign also got a quarterback hit from a lovely spin move playing inside at tackle in the fourth quarter. However, even if the line play is better this season for the defence, the back seven is where the questions are and without access coaching tape in preseason, it is hard to know for sure how they will fare given how much you can see them play. Certainly, whilst unable to score touchdowns, Falcons backup Matt Schaub looked pretty good completing ten of eleven passes against the backup secondary.

Overall, I expect the Dolphins to be better than last season as they will have a more coherent plan on offence, after the muddle that was last year’s experience with two head coaches, but I think they will continue to be hampered by how the roster is constructed. I do wish them well if only to cheer Dan up next season, I still remember how much it hurts for your team to miss the playoffs for a number of year even if the Bengals have had a better run of it recently.

Time is running out for players to make the roster, and with the regular season just around the corner, it’s nearly time for the games that count, although you try telling a player who is fighting to get on a roster that the remaining preseason games are meaningless.

The season is nearly here, and football already is.

Rams, Broncos, Bengals and Pre-Season Reps

21 Sunday Aug 2016

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It’s not only the players who need preseason reps, and in week 2 I am already fighting to catch up thanks to a very busy week at work. Still, I have managed to get all of week 1 watched and caught up with episode two of Hard Knocks as well as the Bengals second game.

The Rams got off to a rocky start in LA, given that on the opening kick-off they gave up a one hundred and one yard touchdown return, which the fans must have been hoping was not a predictor or things to come. In fact, the Rams had a slow first half with them going into half time 24-7 down.

The thing that would be worrying me if I was a Rams fan, was that the defence was not looking that solid despite arguably being the stronger half of the team, with the young Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott looking very good, and you would imagine some Cowboys fans will be already feeling a little better about their backup quarterback situation going into the season after the disasters of last year.

It was also a frustrating evening for Jared Goff who started off looking like a rookie, threw a couple of incomplete passes and got sacked to give him the sore shoulder which cost him some snaps. It is too early to take anything significant from his performance, but as a first round pick the attention is going to be focussed on him all through the preseason, and will continue if the Rams don’t win or if Case Keenum starts to struggle.

If the defence didn’t set the world alight, neither did the offence, and whilst there was some flash from Tavon Austin, and Goff finally threw a couple of pass to Tyler Higbee to demonstrate that a tight end is often a young quarterback’s best option, they will need to improve.

However, in the second half the Rams did manage to drag themselves back into the game and ultimately won it, and whilst preseasons records don’t matter, for a team trying to get back to a winning record this season, this could be an important habit to get into. If there is an area of strength for the Rams on offence it looks to be running backs, with several players looking good in Gurley’s absence and late on receiver Nelson Spruce made a number of catches to push his case to make the team.

I am very much looking forward to seeing the next game and how things progress with this team and watching the games alongside Hard Knocks.

After asking for suggestions, and taking into account the story lines following their Super Bowl win, Dan and I settled on the Denver Broncos as the third team for this year’s preseason, and in their opening game they got off to a good start with a shutout win over the Chicago Bears.

The strength of the Broncos team was defence last year, and they looked good again despite a number of players moving away, as they gave the Bears protection issues all game, racking up a number of sacks to go along with their shut out.

However, the big question for the Broncos after Peyton Manning’s retirement and Brock Ossweiler’s move to the Houston Texans is who is going to play quarterback for them this season. They opened the game with Mark Sanchez, who looked good initially but just as I was beginning to think they might be okay Sanchez threw into coverage and was intercepted. This pretty much seems to sum up Sanchez’s career. Next up they had Trevor Sjemian who looked okay as he ran the team and definitely demonstrated some promise. However, even Paxton Lynch was able to demonstrate some solid play for a rookie, and my big worry for this team would be that if they have a pair of quarterbacks fighting it out for a starting spot for too long, then they might not end up with a true starter going into the season.

Still, with a blocked punt giving them a touchdown, and a safety, the Broncos found multiple ways to score and whilst you can never truly to tell from preseason, it looks like the Broncos are set to make a strong defence of their title.

Finally, I can move into the second week of the preseason, with the Bengals running out to a solid win in Detroit against the Lions.

The offence seemed to move the ball well for the Bengals, although another tackle has picked up an injury which is not a great sign. However, the Bengals depth seems to be holding for the moment and neither Cedric Ogbuehi nor Jake Fisher’s injuries are long term. The more positive news is despite the losses of Jones and Sanu in the offseason, plus free-agent signing Brandon LaFell fighting a hand injury and not catching a ball yet, the Bengals’ receivers are still showing up well. I am particularly impressed with rookie Tyler Boyd who caught another touchdown this week and seems to have settled into the top of the rotation with surprising ease whilst Brandon Tate caught passes with the first team again.

The defence gave up yards to the Lions, but were able to restrict them to field goals until the fourth quarter. The early signs to me is that Golden Tate and Marvin Jones are going to be good pairing for Matthew Stafford, and the offence looked to protect him pretty well against  the Bengal’s pass rush. However, the Bengals defence got enough pressure to win the game and it does seem that they will be competitive again this year.

Things are beginning to heat up as cuts loom on the horizon, and I’m hoping for a smoother week so I can really dig in as we get closer and closer to the regular season, but with people playing for jobs, there’s plenty of competitive football for us to watch already.

Football is Back

14 Sunday Aug 2016

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And we are back.

I’m sorry this blog has been quiet over the offseason, but it turns out that publishing a book is a lot of work and so whilst I was following the offseason as usual, there wasn’t much time to delve deeply into free agency or the draft and I didn’t have the time to dive into my usual football/coaching offseason reading.

If you want to take a look at what I was up to, head over to gavinneale.com where I have been writing about the publishing process and getting my first children’s book out into the world.

However, it has been a refreshing break and I am eager to get into the new season and we already have our first round of preseason games and the training camp documentary Hard Knocks has aired its first episode as they follow the relocated Los Angeles Rams.

I will be scaling back my preseason watching this year as I haven’t been able to cope with the number of team’s I’ve tried to follow previously, so I will be focussing as usual on the Bengals, following the Rams’ games in parallel with Hard Knocks, and will be picking an as yet undecided third team, although I’ll need to pick someone soon.

The first episode of Hard Knocks was relatively quiet; we discovered that head coach Jeff Fisher doesn’t want to go 7-9 this season. The fact that this is what his teams often do is possibly not lost on him, but I will be curious to see how they get on in the coming weeks.

Aaron Donald is one of my favourite players (admittedly I do have a lot of those) and we have already discovered that’s he is pretty competitive (hardly a surprise in a professional sportsman) and that he’s pretty damn good at table tennis. The number of players who were having problems with the sun rising in the east and setting in the west was kind of scary, and let’s hope Jared Goff learns quickly as the Rams have bet a lot in their trade to get the number one pick and get him. We also learned just how close quarterbacks have to get to their centres, and the tank top obsession starting centre Eric Kush that featured heavily in the arrival footage.

Moving on from the Rams, I’ll pick up the Bengals first preseason game as that’s the one I have watched so far, and will pick up the others in the future.

The big question coming into this preseason is surrounding the receivers after the loss of both Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu.

However, my initial take was that Andy Dalton looked pretty good in his opening series, completing his first five passes as the Bengals drove the ball well and then missed a field goal.

Thankfully this was preseason, as having lost the game 17-16 to the Minnesota Vikings that miss could have proved critical, although Marvin Lewis did use this game to try going for two rather than kicking an extra point at the end of the game that would have tied it.

If the first team offence looked good, with my own real worry being an injury to starting running back Jeremy Hill’s finger, the first team defence was downright scary, producing a pressure, sack, pressure, and a punt for the Vikings first offensive series of the game. Both Michael Johnson and Geno Atkins got in on the sack, with Atkins generating the pressure on the first play of the drive, and Carlos Dunlap getting pressure on the second.

That was pretty much it for the first team defence and we saw the depth play out for the rest of the game. The Vikings found it easier to move the ball, and you could tell that the Bengals have been banged up in the secondary as the quality of coverage did slip earlier than you would have liked in this game, although this was only the first of preseason.

That said, a couple of newer names caught the eye on defence, in particular third round linebacker Nick Virgil who seemed to be in the right place often and stuffed a run either at the line of scrimmage or for a small loss. Second year defensive tackle Marcus Hardison caught my eye with lots of good penetration and seemed to play well next to undrafted free agent rookie David Dean.

The probable star of this game was another undrafted free agent rookie in receiver Alex Erickson who caught a touchdown pass from AJ McCarron shortly before halftime and returned a punt for a touchdown in the fourth quarter to setup the Bengals’ failed two point conversion.

Erickson was not the only receiver fighting for a roster spot to play well, with rookie draft picks Tyler Body and Cody Core both making several catches and looking good in the process, along with a number of practice squad and lower in the depth chart receivers also catching balls.

I said the big question for the Bengals this preseason would be a receiver, and this game demonstrated that there looks to be a lot of good options. Whilst I certainly wouldn’t want to make a pick as to who will make it this early in the preseason, I am feeling a lot happier about the position already and that is a pretty good outcome from the first preseason game.

Onwards then, to the rest of the preseason games as the start of the season finally comes into view.

The Wrong Football Podcast – 2016 Post Draft Special

07 Saturday May 2016

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The Wrong Football podcast is back for a special ‘Post-Draft’ podcast – Dan and Gee give their thoughts on the winners and losers of the Draft, and even make a couple of predictions for next season! And if you fancy taking part in our Pig-Skin Pick’em competition next season, listen in – we’ll tell you how!

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – 2016 Post Draft Special

An Unexpected Mock and the Real Draft

01 Sunday May 2016

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My offseason on the blog has been quieter than I was expecting as it turns out that self-publishing a book is a time consuming business, but I have still been following along as the offseason progressed. It was however, kick-started into gear when the Gridiron Gentlemen were looking for people to take part in their mock draft, and in the spirit of curiosity I offered to lend a hand for the Bengals.

This was always going to be an interesting experience for me as I am not a college football fan, but I have been listening to college/draft analysis podcasts all season and as a Bengals fan I feel like I have a handle on what the team have been doing to have turned around their drafting fortunes. Gone are the days of spectacular busts, and thanks to multiple years of solid pick they have one of the deepest rosters in the league.

So I tried to model my drafting method on the Bengals own, so I planned to draft the best player available, but taking account of the positions involved. I don’t know much of my biases are based on opinion abut the draft and how much is following the Bengals as a fan, but for me in the first round you focus on key positions that are defined by particular physical traits. The only exception to this is if you need a quarterback as that is always the key position, but as the Bengals have two quarterbacks who won games last season, they were not in that market this year. The positions I would focus on in the first round are corners, offensive line tackles, pass rushers, wide receivers, and defensive tackles. Each of these positions are either particularly based around athleticism, or are hard to find as there simply are not that many athletic three hundred pound plus people on the planet. I did not have time to create my own draft board, so I chose one and focussed in on several players ranked around twenty-four, which is where the Bengals were picking.

Obviously I don’t have my own staff of scouts, but a couple of players had got my attention in the range that I was picking. My first target was Josh Doctson, one of the most complete receiving talents in the draft, and one that Robert Mays, ex of Grantland and now of Bill Simmon’s new venture The Ringer, was effusive in his match to the Bengals need at receiver and what he could do opposite AJ Green. Another was Mackenzie Alexander, who is a bit short the Bengals usual preference for corners, but who was something of a favourite of Fran Duffy both for his play, and for a press conference where he not only broke down one receiver that he had been asked about, but then continued through other receivers in the draft.

This is the graphic of the entire first round pick:

Gents_Mock_Draft

With two picks to go before me I liked three players, and Houston Texans took a receiver I didn’t want for my team I knew I would have a decision to make, but a good one and then the Minnesota Vikings took Josh Doctson. I plumped for Mackensie Alexander, knowing his size was less than ideal for the Bengals, but liking how he had played and I was not worried about the lack of interceptions. The Pittsburgh Steelers then took Eli Apple, who was probably a better fit, but it was my pick and I followed my heart at the position the Bengals eventually picked.

The interesting things is looking at the actual draft where the Bengals took corner William Jackson III so I did get the position right, and Mackensie Alexander didn’t get drafted until the second round by the Vikings, but Eli Apple was picked at ten by the New York Giants.

This is where things get a bit strange. I have no problems with people talking about picks they liked and didn’t. However, much like the free agent period, we are already rushing to pick winners and losers in the draft and to grade teams. The truth is however, that we simply do not know who has had a good draft yet. The jury should be out for a couple of years, and even then what is often termed a bust is not always the team’s fault. Injury plays a huge part in the game of football, and no one can predict who will succumb to a major injury and who won’t. You would hope to get at least a solid starter out of your first round pick, you simply can’t have too many of those not work out if you want to be a successful team, but the problem can be as much with expectation as it is with actual play. I always remember the criticism of Justin Smith before he left the team, that he not produced enough sacks for a top five pick. He was however, a three down player who was playing out of position and still had an incredible career, finally gaining the praise he deserved playing as a 3-4 end for the San Francisco 49ers’ defence.

However, the real reason for the drafts prominence is that it gives us fans a shot of hope in the long dark offseason. We can now start to familiarise ourselves with the new players our teams have picked, watch them sign undrafted free agents, and begin the countdown to their first workouts and the things that really matter: the start of training camp, pre-season games, and how the teams are beginning to shape up as the new season approaches. For now however, it is fun to bask in the glow of hope as it is not so long until players start working and the reality of another seasons starts to make itself known.

And Then There Were None

14 Sunday Feb 2016

Posted by in Amateur Adventures in Film

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And so the season is done, and the Denver Broncos are the champions for the year. I know Dan and I really enjoyed the Super Bowl this, but this kind of defensive battle is not to everyone’s taste.

The aftermath has been dominated by discussions surrounding Cam Newton’s post game press conference and follow up comments, but I am reluctant to get too involved in this. He did not have a good game, Dan and I were commenting that he didn’t look right from the start of the game. The Super Bowl is a huge one-off game, and the Broncos played outstanding defence, which I will look at in a bit. The big talk is of Newton’s final fumble where he didn’t dive for the ball. As ever, the cover up is worse than the original incident. It has to be said that I didn’t particularly notice him not going for it at the time, and in the replay I just saw a player hesitate, which is understandable given that an oval ball bounces in random ways and all I saw a wrong footed player. However, a lot has been made about him stating he was worried about his leg getting hurt as it was in an awkward position.

In this age of over the top praise and blame, Cam Newton is almost the perfect quarterback for the media. He was lauded before the game as a new breed despite us having seen running quarterbacks before, although not ones so large with the ability to run the ball with power so regularly. However, he also has his flaws and some of them came to the fore in this game. He is not a rhythm thrower, in fact his footwork bothers me quite a lot. The fact that is not pretty isn’t exactly the issue, but if you’re feet are not good then you can struggle with accuracy and this can certainly affect Newton. He also seems to have one speed of throw, fast. His arm strength can and does make up for his technique, and you will see him make throws from awkward positions that very few quarterbacks can make. However, this does mean that if you need short sharp throws to counter a defence then you are going to struggle. He holds onto the ball longer than most quarterbacks in the league, and when facing a defence like the Broncos that can cause all sorts of trouble, but let’s look at what the Broncos did so well to win the game.

The Broncos defence has been good to great all year, and a large part of that is there is no weakness at any level of this defence. Yes the pass rush is formidable, but part of that is that their secondary covers very well so it is hard to get the ball out quickly. This was particularly the case for the Panthers’ receivers who dropped a couple, and were open a couple of times and didn’t get balls thrown their way, but the plain fact is that they did not get open often enough in this game. However, a lot of the problems that the Panthers had were caused by their inability to get much of anything going on first down. The Broncos spent a lot of the game in their base 3-4 defence, even if the Panthers were running three receiver sets. Clearly Wade Philips did not want them to be able to get their running game going and they were largely successful at this, forcing the Panthers out of their preferred game plan, and too many times this meant long passing plays that allowed the Broncos to rush the passer. The other structural nuance was how the Broncos rushed the passer. The Panthers run a lot of passing plays where they send fewer receivers on routes, keeping extra blockers in. However, this created two problems for them as the Broncos’ secondary could cover the fewer receivers, and the players that were assigned to the running back or tight end who was blocking would cover the player until they realised they were blocking and then rush the passer on a delayed blitz. This could clearly be seen on the last play before the half when running back Fozzy Whittaker couldn’t help left tackle Michael Oher as Broncos Linebacker Danny Trevathan spotted that Whittaker was blocking and so followed Malik Jackson on the inside pass rush, which allowed DeMarcus Ware to go round Oher virtually untouched to get the sack.

This really was a team defensive performance, but the focus has been particularly on the MVP Von Miller who had 2.5 sacks for the game and forced two fumbles, including the one that led to the Broncos touchdown in the first half.

If the Broncos defence was great, the Panthers defence was really not very far behind. They limited the Broncos offence to fewer than two hundred total yards, generated two turnovers of their own from Peyton Manning, and if they had won the game had their own MVP candidate in Kony Ealy who finished the game with three sacks, a forced fumble, and an interception. After the first drive they bottled up the Broncos offence, stopping them from sustaining drives even when the Broncos broke the odd run for a decent gain. It was even more remarkable to see Thomas Davis flying round the defence with his broken arm, something that media has certainly been quick to comment on given Newton’s mention of worry about a potential injury. The problem however was that between offensive turnovers putting them in bad positions, and the longest punt return in Super Bowl history, they were given too many short fields to defend. Even then they held the opposition mainly to field goals, only giving up one touchdown, but there were too many mistakes by the team as a whole for their great play to overcome.

The punt return by Jordan Norwood deserves special mention as it so easily could have gone wrong. Norwood clearly doesn’t call for a fair catch, but was surrounded by Panthers and was even bumped by one. Yet somehow he escaped the coverage team and ran for a record breaking sixty-one yards. It was pretty impressive to see defensive end Mario Addison chase Norwood down to prevent any further gain or even a touchdown. The defence held the Broncos to a field goal, but this game was a slow death filled with these little losses that in the end did for the Panthers.

And so at the end of the game Peyton Manning got his second Super Bowl win, pretty much as a passenger, but this was still a feat of leadership. He came to recognise he didn’t have the tools any more, and contrary to earlier in the season where he was throwing interceptions far too frequently, in this playoff run he limited himself, handed the ball off, milked the clock, and used every bit of his experience to get the win. I really hope that this is the last we see of him in pads as impressive as this was, I can’t see him repeating it and there was very little fun in watching this great player performing in such a way other than hoping he can go out on top.

And so the season has come to an end. The offseason started weeks ago, but whilst I will be following all that is going on, I will be taking a break from the blog. I will be writing other things, and I’m sure it won’t be too long before I will be reading and learning more about football. This year I’ll be doing the odd offseason blog around things like the draft, or if particular things crop up during free agency, but for now it is time to take a rest. Roll on next season, just not for a little while.