Week Four Picks

02 Sunday Oct 2016

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Colts @ Jaguars (+2.5)

The first International Series game of the season sees the London Jaguars hosting the Colts, and desperately needing the win. There is an argument that the Jags will be more used to the trip to London, which gives them an advantage over the Colts with the travel, but whilst their defence does seemed to have improved, their offence has taken a step back. The Colts defence is not playing well, in fact a lot of their team around Andrew Luck is not coming together, and as a consequence I’m struggling to pick this game, but I trust Andrew Luck more that Blake Bortles for as long as he can stand up to the hits he is taking.

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Colts

Panthers @ Falcons (+2.5)

The Falcons’ offence is much more balanced this year, with Matt Ryan looking more like the quarterback who used to lead this team to the playoffs regularly. However, the defence is not there yet, and so this game presents a good chance for the Panthers to get their offence right as they visit Atlanta. The injury to Jonathan Stewart is a worry for the Panthers, but the biggest problem for them on offence so far this season is that they have faced the Broncos and Vikings’ defences, which are looking like some of the best in the NFL and so I think that things will look much better for them this week in a game they really need to win to stop their pursuit of the playoffs going off the rails.

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

Bills @ Patriots (-6.5)

The Bills are coming off a win, whilst the Patriots are scrambling to find a healthy quarterback, and so if these were any other pair of teams the pick would be fairly straight forward. However, I have already been bitten twice by picking against Bill Belichick this season, and the Patriots home record is pretty formidable so I’m not prepared to pick against them covering this line.

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

Lions @ Bears (+2.5)

The Lions defence is a worry in this game, but the Bears are struggling on both sides of the ball and I think the Lions will win this game so hopefully this is a straight forward cover. This makes this a prime candidate for me getting it wrong, but I like what the Lions are doing on offence so I’m hanging my hat on that.

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Lions

Browns @ Washington (-8.5)

I think the Browns are playing tough for Hue Jackson, and I am really not sure that Washington should be giving eight and a half points to anyone, and to prove it I am pick the Browns to cover against a Washington team that are not playing that well.

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Browns

Titans @ Texans (-6.5)

The Texans have just lost JJ Watt, likely for the season, and are coming off an embarrassing 27-0 loss to the Patriots in week three. They do have some extra rest from playing in the Thursday night game, but whilst the Titans’ offence is not really coming together how they would like, the defence is playing pretty well and so I’m expecting another close game, certainly close than this line suggests. Whether Bill O’Brien taking over play calling duties on offence has enough of an effect to prove me wrong I don’t know, but I’ll pick on what I have seen so far.

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Titans

Raiders @ Ravens (-3.5)

This is a tough one to pick as the Baltimore Ravens have quietly gone 3-0 with the defence really coming together, whilst the offence is lagging a little behind due to a combination of new receivers and Joe Flacco coming back from last year’s season ending knee injury. The Raiders offence has looked very good so far this season, in fact it is ranked number one in the league by DVOA, but the defence has struggled. I am really not sure how good either team is with the Ravens going unbeaten against an unimpressive series of teams, whilst the Raiders have gone 2-1 against a similarly uninspiring series of opponents. I’m going to grab the extra half point for the away team, and not feel very happy about it.

Gee’s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Seahawks @ Jets (+3.5)

The Seahawks are coming all across the country to play the Jets with an offensive line that has not looked good and an injured Russell Wilson. I have heard some argue that Wilson should be rested a week given how good the Jets front line is and how much the Seahawks rely on their quarterback’s mobility, and I’m not too sure I disagree with them. The Jets offence worries me going against yet another excellent looking Seahawks defence, particularly given the six interceptions Ryan Fitzpatrick threw last week, but in this game at home and getting three and a half points I’m backing the Jets.

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Jets

Broncos @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

The Buccaneers’ head coach Dirk Koetter worries me, and even though they are in Tampa Bay, I don’t see the Bucs being able to live with a Bronocs team who’s defence is still up there with any in the league and an a offence that is doing more than last year when they won the Super Bowl.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Broncos

Cowboys @ 49ers (+2.5)

The Cowboys have very possibly lost Dez Bryant for the week with a hair line fracture in his leg, but he has not been a focus for rookie quarterback Dak Prescott so far this season so I’m not sure it is a disaster. They are on the road this week, but I’m not sure that a trip to San Francisco is going to be too hard for them as the 49ers are still rebuilding the roster and every time I have picked them to keep a game close they have failed so I can’t pick them in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Cowboys
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

Rams @ Cardinals (-8.5)

This feels like a real trap game, as somehow the Rams are 2-1 despite a sputtering offence. I am really not so upset by them sitting their first round draft pick, but an offence that has Todd Gurley shouldn’t be ranked thirty-first by DVOA. However, whilst I want to pick the Cardinals as I think they are the better team with an excellent coach, things have not been clicking. Having lost to the Patriots in the opening game of the season, they have only won one more game with Carson Palmer struggling. Their offence has small margin of error on all the deep shots that they take, and I’m not at all confident about them covering this line. However, I do trust Bruce Arians and his staff, and they really need to turn this round to get back into the hunt for the division, but I trust them to win this game rather than cover this line. I’d quite like to be wrong on this one.

Gee’s Pick: Rams
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Saints @ Chargers (-4.5)

This is a battle of teams featuring excellent quarterbacks and very little else. The Saints defence is horrible again, and it feels like Drew Brees is pressing a little to try to make up for it. The Chargers however keep losing players, and I’m surprised to see them giving this many points. The Saints have only lost one game by five points or more, but I can’t bring myself to pick them in this one, but I do not feel confident about it.

Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Chargers

Chiefs @ Steelers (-5.5)

The Steelers were looking like one of the best teams in the NFL until they lost a surprising game on the road in Philadelphia last week. The defensive is struggling to rush the passer, and the offence was surprisingly ineffective last week despite being pretty terrifying even before getting Le’Veon Bell back like they do this week. The Chiefs are struggling a little on defence to rush the passer as they are missing Justin Houston, but they are a well-coached team whose offence is continuing to play well under Andy Reid. Part of me wants to pick the Steelers as I think their offence is really going to come together now, but this is just too many points to give to a Chiefs team who I think will stay in contention if nothing else.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Giants @ Vikings (-4.5)

The Vikings are surprising everyone with how good their offence is going with Sam Bradford as their quarterback and without Adrian Peterson. Their defence is also playing even better than last year, and their new stadium is incredibly loud. The Giants are a better team than I was expecting, with the defence coming together with their free-agents and the offence developing. However, I have to back the Vikings in this one as I have more faith in what Mike Zimmer is putting together in Minnesota.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

The End of Streaks

29 Thursday Sep 2016

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Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Gus Bradley, Houston Texans, Hue Jackson, Indianapolis Colts, International Series, Jacksonville Jaguars, JJ Watt, London, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, NFL, Odell Beckham, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Rex Ryan, San Diego Chargers, Trevor Siemian, Tyler Eifert, Vontaze Burfict, Washington

It was a strange week three that saw many a game going differently to how people expected, and saw both Dan and I get murdered on our picks.

I wrote before making my picks last week that I expected more teams to get their first loss or win than continue their streaks, but it seems I picked all of the wrong ones and even in the games where I made the right choice, those choices were hardly convincing.

One of the unbeaten Texans and Patriots had to lose their first game, but whilst I acknowledged that Bill Belichick could win this game, I was not expecting the Patriots to manage a 27-0 win over the Texans.
The Cardinals went to Buffalo and lost, giving them a losing record and granting the Bills their first win of the season and resulting in the usual Rex Ryan bravado about facing the Patriots this week.
The Broncos went to 3-0 with an impressive win in Cincinnati where the Bengals defence stacked the box and dared Trevor Siemian to win the game with his arm, which he promptly did.
Even when I picked the Dolphins to beat the winless Browns in Miami and get their first win of the season, they needed overtime to do it and were nowhere near the ten point lead I needed for my pick to come through.
I expected the Viking to keep the game close against the Panthers, but instead ran out with a victory to remain unbeaten despite their injury troubles.
I didn’t see Washington beating a Giants team that were off to a great start, and yet they managed it whilst Odell Beckham grabbed headlines with another emotional outburst. This time the talented receiver lost a fight to a field goal net on the Giant’s side-line.
The Ravens went down to Jacksonville to face a desperate Jaguars team who were not desperate enough to avoid going 0-3, whilst the Ravens have the quietest unbeaten record in the league.
The Colts were one of only three games featuring a 2-0 or 0-2 record that I picked correctly, when they managed to get a win over the visiting Chargers who now have a perfect record of played three, lost three starters for the season to injury.
The Eagles put pay to the Steelers unbeaten record and kept their own, making the hype surrounding Carson Wentz even greater. I am so impressed with the Eagles coaching staff and the turnaround they have made so far, I’m really looking forward to seeing how this team develop over the rest of the season.
The Bears continued to lose, giving me my only other totally correct pick of week two where I got it right and the game went how I expected.
Finally, I was tempted into picking the Falcons because of an extra half point the Saints were giving up, but it turns out that the Falcons didn’t need these points as they ran out easy winners in a game of a lot of points.

Now, the wonderful thing about the NFL is that it is doing a sterling job of giving us talking points and excitement over the weekends, but boy is it making predicting what is going to happen difficult.

Still it is still early, and even though I will be writing my quarter poll summary in a couple of weeks, there are very few teams that should be truly despondent. However, whilst the Cleveland Browns were never likely to be looking for anything other than progress, and to their credit they are playing tough for the Hue Jackson in his first year, the Bears, Saints, and Jaguars are all in trouble. Only three teams have made the playoffs after starting 0-3 since 1990 when the playoff format was expanded to its current format. The Bears were expected to be rebuilding this year even if the injuries have made things worse than I was expecting, but the Jaguars were hoping to make the next step and push for the playoffs whilst the Saints have a Super Bowl winning quarterback who they have failed to surround with enough talent to push as far as they would expect.

The Jaguars are a particular disappointment as they head over to London to host the Colts this week, and already people are wondering if the London game is going to cost another head coach his job. Despite the warm feelings that everyone who has ever dealt with Gus Bradley seems to have, it is hard to see the Jaguars owner putting up with these results for much longer, and the Jaguars will need to turn things round quickly if Bradley is to keep his job past the end of the season.

And continuing the theme of disappointment, the big news of the last twenty-four hours is that JJ Watt has been placed on injured reserve as he having more problems with his back, and could possibly be gone for the season. I’ll write a little more about this over the weekend as I was already going through the coaching tape of Watt vs the Patriots, but hopefully he can make it all the way back as he is one of my favourite players to watch, but back injuries are hard ones to return from and people who’ve had such problems often say that they never felt the same.

The week five games look to offer plenty of excitement and intrigue, but already the attrition has really started to affect some teams, and it is an all too prescient reminder of how tough a game American Football is. I never want to see a player injured, but I will confess that part of me is curious to see what the Patriots would do if they were forced to play Julian Edelman as their quarterback.

Still, it is time to start looking at this week’s games, starting with tonight’s game that pits Dan’s Dolphins on the road against my beloved Bengals.

Our records are nothing to shout home about, particularly after our disastrous previous week, but I did manage to maintain my three point lead:

Gee: Week 3 5-11 Overall 21-27
Dan: Week 3 5-11 Overall 18-30

Dolphins @ Bengals (-6.5)

The Bengals lost their first home game of the season, in what has been a tricky open to the season, but if they can get back to 2-2 they can still hope to make a push for the playoffs. It appears that Tyler Eifert is not going to make it back for the game, but Vontaze Burfict comes off suspension and is likely to help the Bengals defence straight away. I think the Browns are going to give teams a tough game at the moment so I’m not reading too much into last week’s result for the Dolphins, but an overtime game before a short week road game is not the best prep, and I’m hopeful that the Bengals can win and hopefully find some rhythm on offence. For one game only I’m borrowing from Dan and picking blindly based on my fandom.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

AAF: Carson Wentz

25 Sunday Sep 2016

Posted by gee4213 in Amateur Adventures in Film

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Carson Wentz, Chicago Bears, Doug Pederson, Frank Reich, Jordan Matthews, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles

So I thought I would take a closer look at Carson Wentz this week given that he has led the Eagles to a 2-0 stretch.

I’ve heard several people I respect break down what has been working for Wentz, but I will try to base this only on what I was able to see on tape for myself, but I suspect it will sound similar.

In a 29-14 road victory over the Chicago Bears, Wentz’s number did not look spectacular as he threw for a mere one hundred and ninety yards on twenty-one completion from thirty-four attempts with one touchdown and no interceptions, but there was much more going on than these numbers might suggest.

For starters, at the beginning of the game, in his first regular season road game, Wentz started his opening drive with a series of empty backfield passing plays. He completed the majority of them with quick throws that allowed him to quickly select a receiver and make the pass. However, it has to be said that he was clearly in complete control of the offence, certainly appearing to make adjustments and looking like a quarterback who has been playing in the NFL for years.

It has to be said that it did not look like he was not being asked to go through complex progressions, seemingly work with fairly straight forward reads and a fair amount of play action passes, but this looked to be a feature of good coaching. It is in fact to head coach Doug Pederson and offensive coordinator Frank Reich’s credit that they have schemed so well for their young quarterback. He was not being asked to do much more than three or five step drop passes, or work from shotgun, but he was in clear command of what he was being asked to do.

I can’t say that his arm amazed you with the throws he made, but to be honest all the talk of cannons for arms seems to be overdone when evaluating quarterbacks and despite one hopping a couple of passes under pressure, there were no problems for Wentz in delivery catchable balls. In fact there were at least two drops I noted, one of which really should have been a touchdown to Jordan Mathews as the pass was dropped in nicely as he ran into the end zone. My only real concerns were that Wentz took a couple of unnecessary hits on scrambles, which I’m sure his coaches will want him to protect himself from, and that the offence was not terribly efficient in the red zone, only getting three field goals in the first half.

All in all though, Carson Wentz looks like he could turn himself into a very good NFL quarterback, and it really is very impressive to see him in such control of the offence so early in his career. The big tests are yet to come, starting this evening against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but he certainly has done pretty much as well as you could have asked of a rookie quarterback thrown into the starting line-up straight away.

Week 3 Picks

25 Sunday Sep 2016

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NFL, Week 3 Picks

I feel like the real trick with this week’s picks is not to over react and have all the teams who are either 2-0 or 0-2 continuing their winning or losing streak, as the more common result is likely to be a first win or loss, but whether I stick to that as I go through each game individually remains to be seen.

Cardinals @ Bills(+4.5)

The first game already shows the problem with my opening paragraph as the Bill have simply been bad, and given the difficulties they had with pass defence, I can’t see them being effective at slowing down the Cardinals offence and Bruce Arian’s vertical attack, nor being able to move the ball consistently on an opportunistic defence and so I see this as being a fairly straight forward win for the Cardinals.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Broncos @ Bengals (-2.5)

The season doesn’t get any easier for the Bengals as their first home game of the season sees them welcome the Super Bowl champions. That said, whilst the Broncos defence has been impressive, I’m not sure the Broncos have seen a defence of the standard of the Bengals, and with an inexperienced Trevor Siemian under centre on the road I’m backing the Bengals to get back to a winning record.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Broncos

Browns @ Dolphins (-9.5)

Things just keep going from bad to worse for the Browns, and apart from the injuries to their quarterbacks, promising rookie receiver Cory Coleman broke his hand in practice, proving yet again that the Browns can’t have nice things. This line is somewhat eye watering, but with the Dolphins at the home and having mounted a comeback in the second half against the Patriots, I think that not only are they the more likely to get the first win for either team, but that they may well cover this spread as well.

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Lions @ Packers (-7.5)

This game gives me real pause, as all is not well with the Packers so far, with similar problems surfacing on offence as they faced last year. However, I think in their opening game at Lambeau Field they will get back to winning ways, but this is a lot of points. The injuries in the Lions’ defence worry me and although their offence has looked good so far this year, I am not sure about them going against a Packers defence that has impressed me despite the problems against the pass. I keep changing my mind on this one, but I think it could be a get right game for the Packers that in the end gets them the cover.

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Raiders @ Titans (-1.5)

The Raiders are still a very up and down team with their offence currently ranked number one in the NFL by DVOA and the defence ranked thirty-second. They are travelling to a Titans team who got an unlikely win against a Lions team who had three touchdowns waved off for penalties. I’m not sold on the Titans as being good, but the Raiders don’t travel well either. I’m really not sure which way to go, but with head coach Jack Del Rio taking a bigger hand in the defence this week I’m nervously backing the Raiders on the road.

Gee’s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Vikings @ Panthers (-6.5)

I think that the Panthers will run out winners in this game, but given how ineffective Adrian Peterson had been this season, I’m not sure how badly his loss will hurt a new look Vikings offence who still need to fix their offensive line issues. The Panthers defence are not really a team to do this against, but the Vikings defence will likely keep them in the game and so I’m backing the Vikings to cover on the road.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

Washington @ Giants (-4.5)

I’m sort of going against my plan of picking here, but DC Grudens are not functioning well on offence, with quarterback Kirk Cousins playing inconsistently, and couple this with a defence that is not playing that well and I don’t see a lot of hope. The Giants may have built their defence through free agency, but it seems to be working and with a passing attack that seems a lot more balanced than last year, I think Eli Manning has the options to get the ball to receivers no matter what is going on between Odell Beckham and Josh Norman.

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Giants

Ravens @ Jaguars (+0.5)

The Ravens have got off to a good start to the season, but are quietly not a great road team under John Harbaugh who gave up twenty points to the Browns last week. They face a desperate Jaguars team down in Jacksonville, who will already be aware of how seldom 0-2 teams get to the playoffs and so if they are to rescue their season they have to win this game, even if it is early in the season for must win games.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Jaguars

Rams @ Buccaneers (-4.5)

The Rams are 1-1 despite not scoring a touchdown on offence yet this season. This week they travel down to Tampa Bay, where I expect Jameis Winston to bounce back from his terrible performance last week. I really don’t trust the Rams, and I think this is a game where they could be exposed.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Rams

49ers @ Seahawks (-9.5)

It is just possible that the Seahawks have a fatal flaw thanks to the combination of Marshawn Lynch retiring and the continued awfulness of their offensive line. I don’t exactly see them loosing this game, but I am not at all convinced that they will run out ten point winners over anyone. The 49ers are playing hard for Chip Kelly, and I see him keeping this one competitive even on another tough road trip.

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: 49ers

Chargers @ Colts (-2.5)

I am really not sure what to do with this game. The Chargers are on the road in Indianapolis having lost Danny Woodhead last week after losing Keenan Allen in week one. Their defence is playing better than it was last year, but the injury bug keeps biting this team. The Colts have looked okay offensively thanks to Andrew Luck looking more like himself, but the offensive line still isn’t that great and they’ve now lost Dante Moncrief to a fractured shoulder blade. They have also struggled once more in rush defence. I’m reluctantly backing the Colts at home as it is hard to see a team with a quarterback as good as Andrew Luck going 0-3, but that’s not to say it won’t happen.

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Colts

Jets @ Chiefs (-2.5)

The Chiefs are not quite right on defence, and their offence fell short against a Texans’ defence that were looking very good until they played the Patriots on Thursday. I trust Andy Reid but I think they might have too many injuries at similar positions. That said, Arrowhead Stadium is a famously difficult place to visit and the Jets have injury concerns of their own in their very deep receiver group. I’m really not sure which way this could go, but I’m going to back the Jets as from what I have seen I believe that they are the better team even if this is a difficult spot.

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Jets

Steelers @ Eagles (+3.5)

The Eagles have got off to a surprisingly good start with rookie Carson Wentz playing very well, but the Steelers are a completely different level of team to the Browns or Bears and so I think the Steelers run out winners in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Bears @ Cowboys (-5.5)

The Bears are really struggling, and with the number of injuries piling up to go alongside the problems they were already having even before Jay Cutler hurt his thumb, I think they are in for a long game against the Cowboys in Dallas. The line makes me slightly nervous, but at the end of the day I think the Cowboys are simply better equipped to win this game by a fair margin.

Gee’s Pick: Cowboys
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

Falcons @ Saints (-3.5)

I really don’t have a handle on the Falcons, who are coming off a road win in Oakland to face a Saints team who at least managed to stop the Giants’ offence from running rampant last week. The problem for me is that I don’t have great hand on the Saints either, but their defence still scares me, and with the extra half point I’m going to pick the Falcons to cover, but I’m really not very confident on this one.

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Saints

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

25 Sunday Sep 2016

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Bill Belichick, Bill O'Brien, Brock Osweiler, DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans, Jabaal Sheard, Jacoby Brissett, Jamie Collins, JJ Watt, Lamar Miller, New England Patriots, NFL, Ryan Griffin

Houston Texan 0
New England Patriots 27

This is a slightly odd game to write up as it was so incredibly one sided, and even though I said when I picked the Texans that I could see the Patriots winning the game, I was not thinking with a result like this.

The Patriots dominated the Texans in all three phases of the game and so I will start with mention of the Patriots in special teams. One feature that has already been pretty prominent this season is the Patriot’s reaction to the new kick off rules, with them deliberately kicking the ball short of the end zone and backing their coverage team to tackle before the twenty-five yard line and so give them an advantage in field position. Add this to them regularly pining the Texans behind the twenty yard line by punting, and they had a decided advantage in special teams even before the Texans started fumbling their returns.

On offence the Patriots demonstrated that they don’t have a single game plan, but adjust to both their opponent and the strength of their team, and so with a rookie third string quarterback they went very run heavy whilst using stunts and extra linemen to control the Texan’s defensive front. This they did very effectively, and whilst they were not explosive on offence, they did enough. This is even more impressive when you find out that in the second quarter Jacoby Brissett sprained his thumb. The Patriots may have only generated one hundred and three yards of passing offence on eleven completions from nineteen attempts, but when you can get one hundred and eighty-five yards on the ground then this doesn’t matter.

The Texans defence was pretty ineffective, which JJ Watt kept remarkably quiet. It is hard to write too much about them in a game like this, they kept in control of the passing game, but that really wasn’t the focus of the Patriots offence. How they allowed the known to be mobile Brissett to run twenty-seven yards for a touchdown is a mystery, and they will be hoping that this was just a blip in the season and Watt’s problems were simply caused by a road game on a short week whilst still coming back from a back injury.

If the defensive problem for the Texans were possibly a blip, the offensive struggles are actually pretty worrying. The game plan did not work at all, with a surprising number of attempted runs on third down, and the Texans didn’t even make it into the Patriots half of the field until the third quarter. It didn’t seem that Brock Osweiler could drive the team in this game, and DeAndre Hopkins had to make some pretty spectacular catches to get his four catches for fifty-six yards. All too often Osweiler would throw to Lamar Miller or Ryan Griffin underneath, and he will have to improve greatly to justify his seventeen million dollar a year contract. It must also be worrying that Bill O’Brien was so outcoached on his side of the ball, but plenty of coordinators have failed against Bill Belichick.

The Patriots defence really had the number of the Texans all game, and whilst there was no one area obviously dominant, they were able to contain the Texans all game and certainly never allowed them to sustain a drive. The interception by Jamie Collins was as much because Osweiler simply didn’t see him lurking in the middle of the field, and Jabaal Sheard got both of the team’s sacks, but in keeping with the overall nature of this game it was a team performance that was the story of the defence.

The Patriots keep rolling, and I don’t think anyone would bet against them going 4-0 without Tom Brady despite the injury problems stacking up at quarterback, especially with the Bills visiting them next week.

The Texans will be hoping this was a one off anomaly, but with the offensive problems and JJ Watt not looking at all himself, there will be concern until they can put a run of results together.

Everybody has a plan until you hit them in the mouth

22 Thursday Sep 2016

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Adrian Peterson, Bill Belichick, Carson Wentz, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Jacoby Brissett, Jimmy Garopollo, Josh McDaniels, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles, Sam Bradford, Seattle Seahawks, Teddy Bridgewater, Tom Brady, Week 3 Picks

I won’t go into the reasons why me usual routine has been turned around this week, but it does remind of the various quotes regarding what happens to plans when they run into reality.

The NFL is a very real reminder of this, with various teams already facing very different situations than they expected. Of course, for the Vikings the plan didn’t even survive the pre-season, with Teddy Bridgewater going down with his horrible knee injury in practice. This not only affected the Vikings, but Carson Wentz is now starting and surprising everyone with the quality of his play for the Eagles after Philidelphia traded the expected starter Sam Bradford to the Vikings. Both teams are now 2-0, with Bradford surprising everyone with his performance against Green Bay on Sunday as the Vikings eked out a win despite losing Adrian Peterson to a torn meniscus that could keep him out until the postseason.

Meanwhile, the Browns who traded down with the Eagles, allowing the team from Philadelphia to select Wentz are facing questions about what they didn’t like about the quarterback. If the Browns are the ones that are getting asked the questions now having lost two starting quarterbacks in the first two weeks, there could be some awkward questions for the Rams who picked Jared Goff instead of Wentz. With Goff failing to even dress in week one, and the offence still not having scored a touchdown this season, you can see people beginning to wonder about the decision even if the questioning does seem to have been delayed by the win the Rams ground out against the Seahawks on Sunday.

These days everybody wants to declare the winners and losers as soon as possible, despite the fact things are often far more complex than they seen. Planning is important, but rarely do even the most basic plans survive when you put them into action.

The thing we need in life to counter this is adaptability and resilience. The mental toughness to take what is thrown at you is often the difference between trying to do something, and the perseverance to make it a success.

The actual truth is that we don’t know how either Goff or Wentz’s actual careers will go, two games of their rookie season is simply not a big enough sample size, and the thing I like about the way the Rams holding out Goff is that if he’s not ready he shouldn’t just be thrown in. Because we picked him first is a really bad reason to start a quarterback. If you have a player you hope will play of a decade, it doesn’t make sense to play them early to appease the matter of winning now, or at least it doesn’t if there is a real risk that you could hurt the development of the player.

Sometimes circumstances don’t allow for this. Tonight the New England Patriots will be starting rookie Jacoby Brissett thanks to a combination of Tom Brady’s four game suspension and Jimmy Garopollo spraining his throwing shoulder during last week’s win against the Miami Dolphins. I am looking forward to seeing how Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick scheme an offence in only three days practice for a third round draft pick who was their third string quarterback going into the season.

For some this would be too much, and excuse for a team to lose a game, but somehow I think that at least part of the coaches will be relishing the challenge.

You trust that he’ll get good coaching but it’s a hell of a task and there simply could be not enough time, which leads me to tonight’s pick:

Texans @ Patriots (-0.5)

It turns out that apart from lots of points, the other thing that will get me to pick against the Patriots is being down to their third string quarterback with only three days to prepare. I’m not saying that the Patriots won’t win tonight, but it is a big ask and not one I’m prepared to pick as the most likely to happen. Watch Bill Belichick prove me wrong.

Gee’s Pick: Texans
Dan’s Pick: Texans

AAF: Week One – 49ers O-Line

18 Sunday Sep 2016

Posted by gee4213 in Amateur Adventures in Film

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Aaron Donald, Alec Ogletree, Andrew Tiller, Blaine Gabbert, Cam Thomas, Carlos Hyde, Carolina Panthers, Chip Kelly, Daniel Kilgore, Garrett Celek, Joe Staley, Mark Barron, NFL, Robert Quinn, San Francisco 49ers, Zane Beadles

For my first amateur adventure in film of the season, Dan asked me to take a look at the Los Angeles Rams’ visit to the San Francisco 49ers, and after putting out an appeal on social media Simon from the Gridiron Gentlemen was kind enough to suggest I look at their offensive line to see how they tamed the Rams.

I am by no means an expert on line play, but I do enjoy watching defensive lines so it will be nice to turn the tables for the week.

I think it may be impossible to completely shut out Aaron Donald, but he had a remarkably quiet game. The 49ers’ line was certainly good in pass protection, often giving Blaine Gabbert a clean pocket, even if that didn’t always result in a completed pass. In fact, several times he simply saw the space open up before him and scrambled for a gain or first down. The Rams didn’t get a sack in this game, and the closest they came was probably when Donald beat left guard Zane Beadles when matched up one on one with him but couldn’t get to Gabbert before he threw the ball and was called for roughing the passer. This was not the only occasion Donald got through the line, he put a lovely swim move on centre Daniel Kilgore in the third quarter when the Ram’s blitzed five, but Gabbert was able to get rid of the ball or escape for a run. It may have resulted in a three and out for the offence, but they avoided the turnover and in so doing they negated what should have been one of the strengths of the Rams.

The run blocking was less obviously good overall, but the highlight of the week for me watching the line was a play that Simon mentioned on twitter, which really was beautiful. At the end or their second drive in the first quarter, the 49ers were 2^nd & 11 on the Rams’ 11 yard line when Carlos Hyde ran in the touchdown thanks to some beautiful blocking. The 49ers lined up with 12 personnel in a shotgun formation with both tight ends to the right of the formation, one on the line and one behind, and Carlos Hyde stood to the left of Blaine Gabbert. On the snap of the ball right guard Andrew Tiller pulled left and sealed Rams’ end Robert Quinn whilst left tackle Joe Staley crashed down on Cam Thomas playing tackle and then blocked middle linebacker Alec Ogletree. For the Rams, Mark Barron who is listed as a linebacker/safety and lined up close to the line had correctly identified the gap the 49ers were aiming for, but tight end Garrett Celek had also pulled left and cleared out Barron easily, allowing Hyde to run in the touchdown whilst barely being touched before he crosses the goal line. There weren’t too many such exciting run plays in this game, but as the line develops in their new scheme under head coach Chip Kelly this play serves as a tantalising example of what might be possible.

Dan asked me to watch this game as he wanted to know what happened, to which I think the answer is that the Rams offence was ineffective, which is hardly unusual, but also their offensive line was able to control what should have been one of the Rams big advantages. The 49ers face a very tough ask this week in Carolina, and the offence is hardly flowing but it’s possible that their line at least is heading in the right direction.

Week Two Picks

18 Sunday Sep 2016

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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NFL, Week 2 Picks

So in yet another change of format, I’m going to try separating out my weekend blog posts to make them a bit easier to find. So here are Dan and mine’s picks for the week.

Bengals @ Steelers (-3.5)

This game obviously makes me nervous, and will be a physical nasty encounter despite all the talk of it being just another game from both sides this week. I know the Bengals are in Pittsburgh, but I think this will be another close game and with the Steelers giving away an extra half point at home I’m sticking with my team.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Ravens @ Browns (+7.5)

This is a big number for a home team, and part of me wants to pick the Browns with the competent Josh McCown under centre, but there are too many young players for me to be brave enough to do it. I hope this isn’t a mistake

Gee’s Pick: Ravens
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

Cowboys @ Washington (-2.5)

This is a must win game for both teams with the Cowboys having already lost to the Giants in week one they cannot afford to lose two divisional games, and neither team will want to start 0-2 given that such a record usually means you won’t make the playoffs. I’m still trying to get a feel for both teams, but I think Washington will be better this week, not least because they won’t have to deal with Antonio Brown.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Washington

Titans @ Lions (-5.5)

The Titan’s started well and faded in their first game, but are now on the road against a Lions team that I think might be headed in the right direction.

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Lions

Chiefs @ Texans (-2.5)

The Chiefs are on the road, and are a bit banged up. I could regret this, but if you’re having problems at guard, the last thing you want to do is face JJ Watt, even if he is recovering from a back operation. I’m backing the Texans, all be it nervously as Andy Reid has a way with his team.

Gee’s Pick: Texans
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Dolphins @ Patriots (-6.5)

You could make an argument that the Dolphins improved defence going against a banged up Patriots offence should give them a chance to cover, but I can’t overlook what the Patriots did to the Cardinals on the road in week one and so I can’t bring myself to pick the Dolphins to cover.

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Saints @ Giants (-5.5)

Although I don’t feel like I have a handle on the Giants, for me this game comes down to the fact that they have a more competent defence that the Saints, and with them being at home I am very nervously picking them to cover this spread. I see no reason why the Saints should suddenly start travelling better than they have in recent seasons..

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Saints

49ers @ Panthers (-13.5)

This is a horrible spot for the 49ers, on the road after a Monday night game against a team who haven’t played since Thursday. I almost guarantee a Panthers win in this one, but this is a huge spread and it is no mean feat to shutout any NFL offence and so I’m picking the 49ers to cover.

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: 49ers

Seahawks @ Rams (+5.5)

This is the Rams first home game that matters since moving back to LA, and they will be desperate to recover from last week’s loss. For some reason they always play the Seahawks tough, and with Russell Wilson on a gimpy ankle and in front of big home crowd I’m backing them to cover, although I can see the Seahawks winning and very possibly making me bitterly regret this pick.

Gee’s Pick: Rams
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Buccaneers @ Cardinals (-6.5)

I am not too worried about the Cardinals being able to turn things round after their week one loss, and they could very easily run out big winners in this one, but I just have this feeling that Jameis Winston will keep this one close for the Bucs.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Falcons @ Raiders (-4.5)

I’m not sold on the Falcons and so will hesitantly take the Raiders despite them giving away this number of points.

Gee’s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Colts @ Broncos (-5.5)

I think the Broncos defence will really test the Colts’ offensive line, whilst their offence will show just how bad the Colts are at stopping the run. Combine this with the Broncos having extra rest from their opening day win and I’m backing them to cover despite these points.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Broncos

Jaguars @ Chargers (-2.5)

The Chargers offence worries me with the loss of Keenan Allen, and so even though they are on the road, I’m backing the Jags to get their first win of the season.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Jaguars

Packers @ Vikings (+2.5)

This is a rough pair of road games for the Packers to open the season given that their last two preseason games were on the road as well, and with the Vikings defence looking really good and all the energy that will be surrounding them as the Vikings open their new stadium, I’m picking the Vikings getting 2.5 points. Watch Aaron Rodgers make me look very foolish…

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Eagles @ Bears (-2.5)

I’m not completely sure on this one, as Wentz was only playing against the Browns in week one, but the rookie quarterback looked good and I think they may be better than we were thinking. I don’t have a real feel for the Bears, but getting the points I’m taking the Eagles.

Gee’s Pick: Eagles
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

Jets @ Bills

18 Sunday Sep 2016

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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Brandon Marshall, Buffalo Bills, Darrelle Revis, Eric Decker, Greg Roman, Jalin Marshall, Kacy Rodgers, LeSean McCoy, Marquise Goodwin, Matt Forte, New York Jets, NFL, Nickell Robey, Quincy Enunwa, Rex Ryan, Todd Bowles, Tyrod Taylor

New York Jets 37
Buffalo Bills 31

This was a tighter game than I was expecting, but then again it was a tighter game than it should have been given that that the Jets looked better on both sides of the ball for most of the game and nearly put up five hundred yards on the Bills defence.

It would be curious that Rex Ryan fired his offensive coordinator after this game, given it was his defensive side of the ball that was possibly the problem, but this action does remove a possible replacement lurking on his staff as the Bill have fallen to 0-2, but let’s look at the how the teams played.

The Jets struggled to run the ball early in the game, and whilst they did manage to grind out over one hundred yards as a team, it took Matt Forte thirty carries to get his round one hundred yards, although he did punch in three touchdowns. What really struck me with the Jets on offence was the number of third down conversions the Jets made, going eight of thirteen, and having me regularly make a note of a receiver making a third down catch to get a new set of downs. In fact they had two receivers go over one yards in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, whilst Quincy Enunwa also chipped in with ninety-two with a very strong opening to the game, but who was forced out with an injury to his ribs. This meant that we saw Jalin Marshall catch three balls for forty-five yards and it seems that the Jets offence is going to be effective again this season, and certainly they appear to have depth at receiver.

The Bills defence started strongly against the run, but they never seemed to get control of the Jets passing game, and despite putting the Jets in difficult positions on third down, was unable to get regular pressure or stop the passing game. As is typical of Rex Ryan’s teams, there were some badly timed penalties, but it is really hard to fathom how a defensive coach of such skill and reputation as Ryan has come to a team that already had a very good defence and seems to have taken them backwards. The Bills did manage one sack, and flushed Ryan Fitzpatrick out the pocket several times, but often he was able to make yards or get a first down with his feet, or make a pass to a receiver. However, they did contribute a touchdown when Jets receiver Jalin Marshal fumbled after a catch and corner Nickell Robey was able to scoop up the ball and run it back for a touchdown. They also manage to limit the Jets to field goals early, or this game would not have been as close, but in the end they just gave up too much in the passing game.

The Bills offence on the other hand, was unable to get things going consistently with LeSean McCoy flashing on occasions, and quarterback Tyrod Taylor being mobile but inconsistent in the passing game. However, what kept them in this game were big splash plays. The Bills opening drive started poorly on their first two plays, but on third and twelve Tryod Taylor threw a deep pass to Marquise Goodwin who got past Darrelle Revis for an eighty-four yard touchdown. They were unable to do much for the rest of the first half, but at the start of the second half Taylor was flushed out of the pocket, yet he was able to find enough time to pass to Greg Salas who got behind the defence to score a seventy-one yard touchdown. However, when it really mattered they couldn’t make the plays they needed, and their final touchdown owed much to the Jets having a thirteen point lead and so they were focussing on stopping the Bills scoring quickly, but were playing soft coverages. The offence has not been great this season for the Bill, but I really do think there’s more to Greg Roman’s firing than just that.

The Jets defence is playing well, at least in the font seven, and they were consistently getting pressure even if they didn’t generate any sacks. However, Derrelle Revis got burned again as age is catching up with him and he can’t quite run as he used to. He is still a very good corner, but it does appear that his time as the premier shutdown corner in the league is over. The two long touchdown passes will worry head coach Todd Bowles and defensive coordinator Kacy Rodgers as they gave up a lot to AJ Green in week one, so there’s plenty for them to do, but their excellent front gives them a strong foundation to work from.

The Jets got back to 1-1 on the road in a divisional game, and Ryan Fitzpatrick possibly put to rest the idea that he can’t beat a Rex Ryan defence. I still expect the Jets to push for the playoffs, whilst the Bills having fallen to 0-2 and have given themselves a real hole to climb out of, which I can’t see them doing.

Divisional Pick’em 2016

18 Sunday Sep 2016

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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Divisional Pick'em 2016, NFL

So this is Dan’s baby, so he gets all the credit for the competition, whilst I had to fight HTML to get the tables hopefully looking okay.

The points system is as follows:

1 point for each team who finish in the position you’ve put them in.
1 bonus point for getting all 4 teams in a division in the correct order.

This means that there’s a total of 5 points up for grabs in each division; 40 in total.

It will be fun to see who has done the best job come the end of the season.

	Name:	TWF Dan	TWF Gee	The English Lion	Aussie Guys NFL	Miami Dolphins UK
	Twitter:	@TWFDan	@WrongFootball	@EnglandLion313	@AussieGuysNFL	@MiamiDolphinsUK
	Team:	Dolphins	Bengals	Lions	49ers	Dolphins

AFC North	1^st	Steelers	Bengals	Steelers	Bengals	Steelers
	2^nd	Bengals	Steelers	Bengals	Steelers	Bengals
	3^rd	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens
	4^th	Browns	Browns	Browns	Browns	Browns
AFC East	1^st	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
	2^nd	Dolphins	Jets	Jets	Jets	Dolphins
	3^rd	Jets	Dolphins	Dolphins	Bills	Jets
	4^th	Bills	Bills	Bills	Dolphins	Bills
AFC South	1^st	Colts	Jaguars	Colts	Colts	Colts
	2^nd	Jaguars	Colts	Texans	Texans	Texans
	3^rd	Texans	Texans	Jaguars	Jaguars	Jaguars
	4^th	Titans	Titans	Titans	Titans	Titans
AFC West	1^st	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Raiders
	2^nd	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos	Raiders	Chiefs
	3^rd	Raiders	Raiders	Chargers	Broncos	Broncos
	4^th	Chargers	Chargers	Raiders	Chargers	Chargers

NFC North	1^st	Packers	Packers	Packers	Packers	Packers
	2^nd	Vikings	Vikings	Lions	Vikings	Vikings
	3^rd	Lions	Lions	Vikings	Lions	Lions
	4^th	Bears	Bears	Bears	Bears	Bears
NFC East	1^st	Cowboys	Redskins	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys
	2^nd	Giants	Cowboys	Giants	Redskins	Giants
	3^rd	Eagles	Giants	Redskins	Giants	Eagles
	4^th	Redskins	Eagles	Eagles	Eagles	Redskins
NFC South	1^st	Panthers	Panthers	Falcons	Panthers	Panthers
	2^nd	Falcons	Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints
	3^rd	Saints	Buccaneers	Panthers	Buccaneers	Falcons
	4^th	Buccaneers	Falcons	Buccaneers	Falcons	Buccaneers
NFC West	1^st	Cardinals	Cardinals	Seahawks	Cardinals	Seahawks
	2^nd	Seahawks	Seahawks	Cardinals	Seahawks	Cardinals
	3^rd	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams
	4^th	49ers	49ers	49ers	49ers	49ers

	Name:	British Birdgang	Bucs UK	Going Long Podcast	British Bear London	Texans UK
	Twitter:	@BritishBirdgang	@bucsUK	@GoingLongUK	@BritBearLondon	@TexansUK
	Team:	Cardinals	Buccaneers	Bills	Bears	Texans

AFC North	1^st	Steelers	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals
	2^nd	Bengals	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers
	3^rd	Ravens	Browns	Ravens	Ravens	Browns
	4^th	Browns	Ravens	Browns	Browns	Ravens
AFC East	1^st	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Bills
	2^nd	Bills	Dolphins	Bills	Jets	Patriots
	3^rd	Jets	Jets	Dolphins	Bills	Jets
	4^th	Dolphins	Bills	Jets	Dolphins	Dolphins
AFC South	1^st	Texans	Colts	Texans	Texans	Texans
	2^nd	Jaguars	Jaguars	Colts	Colts	Jaguars
	3^rd	Colts	Texans	Titans	Jaguars	Titans
	4^th	Titans	Titans	Jags	Titans	Colts
AFC West	1^st	Broncos	Raiders	Broncos	Broncos	Chiefs
	2^nd	Raiders	Cheifs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Raiders
	3^rd	Chiefs	Chargers	Raiders	Raiders	Broncos
	4^th	Chargers	Broncos	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers

NFC North	1^st	Packers	Packers	Packers	Vikings	Packers
	2^nd	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Packers	Bears
	3^rd	Bears	Bears	Lions	Lions	Lions
	4^th	Lions	Lions	Bears	Bears	Vikings
NFC East	1^st	Giants	Giants	Cowboys	Redskins	Eagles
	2^nd	Cowboys	Eagles	Redskins	Eagles	Redskins
	3^rd	Eagles	Cowboys	Giants	Giants	Cowboys
	4^th	Redskins	Redskins	Eagles	Cowboys	Giants
NFC South	1^st	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers
	2^nd	Falcons	Buccaneers	Buccaneers	Falcons	Falcons
	3^rd	Buccaneers	Falcons	Falcons	Saints	Buccaneers
	4^th	Saints	Saints	Saints	Buccaneers	Saints
NFC West	1^st	Cardinals	Cardinals	Seahawks	Cardinals	Cardinals
	2^nd	Seahawks	Seahawks	Cardinals	Seahawks	Rams
	3^rd	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams	Seahawks
	4^th	49ers	49ers	49ers	49ers	49ers

The Wrong Football

~ A UK American Football fan writes about the game he loves

Week Four Picks

The End of Streaks

AAF: Carson Wentz

Week 3 Picks

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

Everybody has a plan until you hit them in the mouth

AAF: Week One – 49ers O-Line

Week Two Picks

Jets @ Bills

Divisional Pick’em 2016