AAF: Blake Bortles

24 Sunday Dec 2017

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For this week’s amateur adventures in film I wanted to take a look at the Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles to see what could explain the turnaround in his season and how the Jaguars managed to put up forty-five points against the visiting Houston Texans.

Blake Bortles had a terrible season last year and whilst he made the right noises about rebuilding his mechanics in the offseason, his coach did say earlier this year that the perfect game was where his quarterback didn’t throw any passes.

Clearly things went a little differently as Blake Bortles finished this game with twenty-one completions from twenty-nine attempts for three hundred and twenty-six yards and three touchdowns. He also threw no interceptions and was only sacked once when he was forced out of bounds behind the line.

The first thing to say is that Blake Bortles looks like a competent quarterback this season. Last year his mechanics got so out of whack that the ball was ending up near his waist as part of his throwing motion but Bortles looks a lot more balanced and compact now. I wouldn’t say that he is firing the ball to his receivers, but the construction of the offence is clearly better suited to him. Now it could be argued that this is because it is a simpler offence for him to execute, but given the object of the game is to win rather than for your quarterback to put up impressive stats, this is not exactly a bad thing.

The Jaguars are a running team, and a lot of Bortles throws are based on play action and running the ball. The Jaguars use plenty of two running back sets, but they also use double tight end single back formations with Bortles either under centre or standing in shotgun. The Jaguars are also not afraid to run the ball out of shotgun, and as ever, this balance makes the passing game more effective.

The Jaguars do actually have injuries at receiver but rookie receiver Keenan Cole shone in this game, and not only did he have his first hundred yard game but he finished with one hundred and eight-six receiving yards including a seventy-three yard play. Cole also had a kick-off return for a touchdown but let’s get back to the main subject of this post.

One of the main problems with Bortles last year was turnovers, but in this game not only did Bortles not throw an interception but I don’t remember him making any dangerous throws. He threw the ball away when forced out the pocket and when he missed receivers under pressure the ball it was not dangerous. Whilst he didn’t display a huge amount of mobility, he moved enough in the pocket to avoid pressure and also took hits whilst completing passes.

Overall I was pretty impressed, and whilst I don’t believe Bortles is suddenly an elite quarterback he has done well enough with this team to make you wonder what the front office will do in the offseason. There has been much talk of what the Jaguars will do at quarterback and if they might replace Bortles but if he continues to play well into the playoffs then perhaps the Jaguars will be happy to stick with what they know.

I’m not sure you would have said that before the season.

Week Sixteen Picks

24 Sunday Dec 2017

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Falcons @ Saints (-5.5)

This game sees the second ranked by overall DVOA New Orleans Saints host the Atlanta Falcons who rank sixteenth. This should be a great game as both teams are fighting for a playoff spot and the Falcons won the reverse fixture two weeks ago. It also pits the Saints’ number one rush offence by DVOA against the Falcons’ thirtieth rush defence. I do fancy the Saints to win, but it is a question if they can cover this line and whilst I think they definitely can the line does worry me. However, with Alvin Kamara fit and healthy and with a point to prove I’m going to nervously back the Saints.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Bills @ Patriots (-12.5)

The New England Patriots are coming off another comeback win, but having beaten the Steelers they now host the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are still in the playoff hunt and have been playing most teams tough. I would expect the Patriots to win, but given that they are coming off a physical road game I do not expect them to find this division game easy.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Browns @ Bears (-6.5)

The Cleveland Browns have been failing to even cover games yet alone win them, and it is hard to see them turning this around on the road in Chicago even if the Bears are hardly setting the league alight. The Browns’ defence ranks a respectable sixteenth in the league but their thirty-second rank offence does not inspire confidence. Nor does the fact that the Browns are 1-5 against the spread on the road and so by default I’m going back the Bears to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Lions @ Bengals (+4.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals are struggling with injury and stuck in limbo with a head coach that is likely leaving so it hard to see them having much luck against the Detroit Lions who still have an outside chance of making the playoffs. The injuries at tackle will not help the struggling Bengal’s offence and whilst having linebacker Vontaze Burfict back may help the defence, I’m not prepared to suggest that this will help the Bengals keep this game close.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Broncos @ Washington (-3.5)

Washington are limping towards the end of the season whilst the Denver Broncos have won two straight. The Broncos will want to take another look at Paxton Lynch, but with the oft injured young quarterback still struggling with an ankle sprain it looks like Brock Osweiler will get the start in Washington. I don’t have much faith in the home team despite their win against the Cardinals last week but nor do I have much faith in the Broncos and yet with the Broncos coming into this game with a little extra rest and getting an extra half point on the road I’m going to back them to stay within four points in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Rams @ Titans (+6.5)

With the LA Rams on the road as they travel to face the Tennessee Titans the points should tempt me except the Titans have not been playing well for a while now and the Rams are peaking at the right time. I am sure I should be taking the points for a home underdog but with the scores the Rams have been running up this season I can’t bring myself to do it.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Dolphins @ Chiefs (-10.5)

The Miami Dolphins have been so up and down that it is hard to predict what they are going to do, but on the road facing a Kansas City Chiefs team who have rediscovered some of their early season form and who have one of the best home field advantages in the league it is hard to say the Dolphins will have a good performance. However, it is a lot to ask for any team to win by eleven points. I don’t think the Dolphins will win this game, but this number is too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Chargers @ Jets (+6.5)

The LA Chargers rand into a buzz saw last week and are on the road for a second week. They travel to face a New York Jets team who have lost two games by double digits since quarterback Josh McCown was lost for the season to a hand injury in Denver. The points do worry me, but the Chargers are still only a game back from the wildcard spots and are the better team.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Buccaneers @ Panthers (-9.5)

The Carolina Panthers have won two straight and seem to have found themselves on offence. They welcome a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team who got a strong performance from Jameis Winston last week but the third year quarterback has struggled a lot this season as has the team. This is a lot of points but not enough to persuade me to pick against the favourite.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Jaguars @ 49ers (+4.5)

The San Francisco 49ers have had an incredible run since starting Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback but those three wins have come against the Bears, Texans, and Titans whereas this week they face the Jacksonville Jaguars and their league leading by DVOA pass defence. This should be a fascinating game but it feels like this is the game that Garappolo finally loses. The points are tempting, but in the end I’m going to trust the superior talent across the board for the Jaguars and who would have predicted that before the start of the season?

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Seahawks @ Cowboys (-4.5)

This feels like a trap game as the Seattle Seahawks are a team who constantly challenge what you think they can do and the Dallas Cowboys have been up and down this season. However, the Seahawks were battered at home last week and are facing a Cowboys team who can rush the passer and who are also get running back Ezekiel Elliott back from suspension. I could regret this but with the Cowboys coming into this game on a three game winning streak I’m going to back them to win at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Giants @ Cardinals (-4.5)

This is a strange game to pick with both teams’ seasons going badly and neither team having much to play for. The Arizona Cardinals have not scored a touchdown in two games whilst the New York Giants are marking time until the end of the season when the overhaul of their roster can begin. I think the Cardinals are the more likely team to win but the Giants are a surprising 4-3 against the spread on the road and this is just too many points for me.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Steelers @ Texans (+9.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers should have won last week and now travel to face a poor Houston Texans team who just want the season to be over. The Texans have lost their last four games and the last three by double digits so whilst the Steelers’ loss of receiver Antonio Brown does worry me, as does their  propensity of playing down to their opponent, the Steelers need to keep winning to get a bye week and I think they should get right in this game. Particularly with the Christmas day record of 17-2 to road teams, which Dan made me aware of in this week’s podcast.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Raiders @ Eagles (-8.5)

The Oakland Raiders are the other team on the road this Christmas, but if last year was the first to feature home wins in the Christmas day games I expect another home victory this year. The Raiders have been struggling all season and this week they travel across the country to face an Eagles team in Philadelphia who demonstrated that they can move the ball with their backup quarterback Nick Foles. It was the Eagles’ defence that struggled last week despite their top ten ranking by DVOA and they will want to look better this week and going against a Raiders offence that ranks a surprising eleventh by DVOA despite their problem, I think they will.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Saturday Picks

23 Saturday Dec 2017

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As we head into the last two weeks of the regular season the playoff situation is becoming clearer, but as much as the focus has been on the turnaround of the new teams that are going to make it like the Philadelphia Eagles, the LA Rams and the Jacksonville Jaguars there are a lot of familiar and experienced quarterbacks lurking or in pole position. No one would be surprised if Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady battle it out in the AFC championship game, but in the NFC whilst there are three inexperienced quarterbacks looking like they will win their divisions, the NFC South looks like it could send Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and Matt Ryan into the playoffs. That’s three quarterbacks who don’t just have playoff experience but have been to a Super Bowl and in Brees’ case, won one.

With Carson Wentz’s injury the Eagles are less dominant in the NFC and it certainly feels like any one of the six teams that would go through if the season ends today could get on a run. The AFC is a somewhat murkier, especially given the partially torn calf muscle of Steelers’ receiver Antonio Brown. It is a fool’s game to be predicting what will happen, but it does feel like the NFC teams are stronger this season, but as we witnessed in their game last week, you should count the Patriots out at your peril. Something Dan and I failed to take into account when picking against them, although we both had winning records last week.

Gee:      Week 15   11-5                   Overall   128-97
Dan:      Week 15   9-7                     Overall   117-108

Colts @ Ravens (-13.5)

The Indianapolis Colts were competitive for a half last week, but in the end they were thoroughly beaten by the Broncos and this week they travel to face the Ravens in Baltimore who have been playing well of late. The Ravens have also pitched three defensive shutouts this season and I suspect the Colts will struggle to move the ball on them. This is a big line, but the Ravens have won six games by fourteen points or more this season and so I’m going to nervously back them to do it again this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Vikings @ Packers (+6.5)

The Minnesota Vikings just keep rolling and with the Green Bay Packers placing Aaron Rodgers back on IR after they were eliminated from the playoffs it is hard to see anything other than a Vikings win in this game. It is a divisional game so it could be more competitive than generally assumed, but Rodgers’ absence has demonstrated how important he is to this team, and I think the Vikings should cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

AAF: Sacksonville Jaguars

17 Sunday Dec 2017

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So for this week’s amateur adventure film I took a look at the self-appointed Sacksonville Jaguars defensive line going up against the Seattle Seahawks in Jacksonville.

There is always an interaction between a defence’s pass rush and their ability to cover, and it has to be said that there were not a huge number of plays where the defensive line got straight through the Seahawk’s offensive line. Considering the reputation of both units this is a little surprising, but clearly the offensive line has improved over the season and with the addition of Duane Brown. However, the Seahawks also worked round the defensive line with screen plays, outside runs as well as relying on the manoeuvrability of Russell Wilson to escape pressure and make plays. That Wilson very much did, although whilst the Seahawks were only recorded as giving up two sacks, they gave up another pair of sacks that were negated by penalties against Dante Fowler for illegal use of hands.

So before people begin to wonder where all the focus on the Jaguars has got to, let’s get on with looking at their defensive line. Going back to my comment on the interaction between coverage and pass rush, part of what makes the defensive unit of the Jaguars successful is that they can get enough pressure whilst regularly only rushing their four linemen. On the majority of the defensive snaps the defensive line are the only ones rushing the passer and this allows them not to take risks in coverage. Now this is not to say that this is a static group of players as they lined up with a number of different alignments to stress pass protection and there was also an impressive rotation of players with several catching the eye.

The obvious place to start is with Calais Campbell who friend of the pod Nick Ferguson suggested to Dan this week was one of the top five defensive players of the season. Campbell lined up at both end and inside at tackle and was consistently able to cause disruption even if he did not get any sacks in this game.

Another of the line players who leapt out to me was Yannick Ngakoue who played mainly at end, but on several snaps was stood up as part of moving front and who rushed the passer like a blitzing linebacker although on one play he dropped into coverage from defensive end. He may have only got one tackle but he should have had two sacks if one of them had not been cancelled out by one of the previously mentioned Dante Fowler penalties.

The final single player I wanted list was Malik Jackson who was the other player to get a sack that stood as he got Russel Wilson on what turned out to be the Seahawks’ final drive. This was the third consecutive play on which right guard Ethan Pocic gave up pressure and was really the only time that the Seahawks line looked as bad as has been discussed throughout the season but it was a good inside move that Jackson used to get pressure for a second consecutive play that resulted in a sack. This did not surprise me as he had got penetration throughout the game.

I think it is likely to be hard to separate the pass rush from coverage for most good defences unless the pass rush is incredibly quick to the quarterback, but it is clear to me that the Jacksonville Jaguars are number one in pass defence by DVOA for a reason, and whilst their secondary clearly plays a part, this line is not one to be taken likely and their ability to rush four and still get pressure makes a huge contribution to the collective whole.

Week Fifteen Picks

17 Sunday Dec 2017

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Dolphins @ Bills (-2.5)

The Buffalo Bills are one of four teams in the AFC with a 7-6 record and do have a shot at a wildcard spot but they also have to play the Miami Dolphins twice and face the Patriots next week. As such, they have to win at least two of those and hope to get into the playoffs. The Dolphins are one of the hardest teams to predict given that their plays is incredibly up and down, they are ranked twenty-eight overall by DVOA, and yet they have a 6-7 record. The Dolphins impressive win against the Patriots on Monday would give me pause, except that I have no faith in their ability to play consistently from week to week and for whatever reason they do give the Patriots problems at home. As such, I’m backing the Bills to win out in this one and they only need a field goal to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Bengals @ Vikings (-10.5)

This could be a really painful game for me as the Bengals leave Cincinnati after a bad loss to the Bears and head off to face the Vikings in Minnesota. The Vikings are coming off three straight road games and only lost to the Panthers last week, but they are a much more balanced team than the Bengals not to mention a better one. The Vikings’ defence is going to cause the anaemic Bengals offence problems and with the injuries at linebacker mounting up I don’t see the Bengals covering this line in a tough stadium to play in.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Ravens @ Browns (+7.5)

The Baltimore Ravens are travelling to face the Cleveland Browns and I do wonder about picking the Browns to cover this one, but it feels like every time I do that I lose and so with the Ravens in the playoff hunt and still possessing the best defence and special teams in the league by DVOA I am backing them to cover. Although I will be interested to see what the Browns’ vocal new GM John Dorsey gets up to in the offseason.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Packers @ Panthers (+0.5)

The Carolina Panthers got the win last week against the Vikings and are part of a tight three way race in the NFC South. This week they face an excited Green Bay Packers who have their talisman back in Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have a slim hope of making the playoffs but they will need to win their final three games and Rodgers will have to hit the ground running in his first game back since breaking his collar bone. I can understand the excitement as the Packers had to win out last season to make the playoffs and they did, but it is a tough three games and the Packers did not look at all convincing without Rodgers as their quarterback. It wouldn’t surprise me if Rodgers gets the win on the road, but I’m not sure I can pick it.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Jets @ Saints (-15.5)

This is an awful lot of points, but with the New York Jets losing starting quarterback Josh McCown for the rest of the season to a broken hand and the New Orleans Saints getting rookie sensation Marshon Lattimore back at corner as well as rookie running back Alvin Kamara clearing concussion protocol it doesn’t feel like the Jets will keep it close. I could regret it, but with the Saints having extra rest and being at home I think they are going to have a big game.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Eagles @ Giants (+7.5)

It is so frustrating that Carson Wentz is done for the year, but the Philadelphia Eagles will still be a tough team to face. The New York Giants continue to argue amongst themselves and I suspect that the end of the season can’t come soon enough. I think the Eagles will still win this game, but with a backup quarterback I can’t pick them to win by eight without seeing some evidence first.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Cardinals @ Washington (-4.5)

The Arizona Cardinals have remained competitive in a lot of games despite the injuries and this week they travel to face a Washington team who have been equally beset by injury. The Cardinals defence is fifth in the league by DVOA and I think they will be competitive so whilst I think Washington are more likely to win, I’m not going to pick them to win by five.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Texans @ Jaguars (-11.5)

The Houston Texans have won one game in their last seven and travel to face the Jacksonville Jaguars with an offence that ranks twentieth in the league by DVOA. This is a problem when you are facing the number two defence in the league by DVOA and the number one pass defence. The Texans rush attack doesn’t look to stack up that great against the comparatively weak Jaguars run defence either. The points give me some pause, and it still feels strange to see the Jaguars giving this number of points, but I don’t think anyone is going to fancy playing the Jaguars in the playoffs and this is going to be a tough game for the Texans.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Rams @ Seahawks (-2.5)

The Seattle Seahawks lost a bad tempered game to the Jaguars last week and are increasingly reliant on Russell Wilson to do the impossible as the injuries continue to mount on defence. The LA Rams lost to the Eagles last week and this game can be seen as something of a measuring stick on whether they are going to be a dangerous team in the playoffs. The Rams have made tremendous progress from last season, but do seem to have struggled against tough defences and this is a bad time to have some injury niggles on the offensive line. Still, with Bobby Wagner not having practised all week, the Seahawks must be worried even if it looks like the linebacker is going to try to play with his hamstring injury. The Rams have beaten the Seahawks in recent years and I think this is the time we find out how good they are going to be and I think they edge this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Titans @ 49ers (-1.5)

It is not often that you see a 3-10 team favoured over an 8-5 team but the Tennessee Titans are coming off an ugly loss to the Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers have won two straight since Jimmy Garoppolo became their starting quarterback. The Titans have been winning ugly this year, and really need this one to stay in the playoff hunt but Marcus Mariota has not looked great in his third season. I’m going to back the team with the momentum in this game and just hope that Garoppolo keeps his winning streak going for another week as he has to lose at some point.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Patriots @ Steelers (+2.5)

In a game that many see as deciding who will come out of the AFC to be in the Super Bowl by determining who will have home field advantage in the playoffs, the Pittsburgh Steelers welcome the New England Patriots who are coming off a tough loss to the Dolphins. The Patriots will have Rob Gronkowski back from suspension and in recent years have shredded the Steelers’ cover two defence, which is worrying given the injury to Ryan Shazier. However, the Steelers’ offence feel like it has more than enough to keep up with the Patriots offence, particularly with there being injury problems for the Patriots at right tackle. The Patriots almost never lose two straight under Bill Belichick but getting points at home is too much for me to pass up in this cracking game.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Cowboys @ Raiders (+2.5)

The Oakland Raiders have really struggled this season and with the league’s worst defence by DVOA I see them struggling against a Dallas Cowboys team that has won two straight and seem to have got themselves back on track.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Falcons @ Buccaneers (+6.5)

This week’s Monday night game see the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Atlanta Falcons. The Bucs have really struggled and losing Gerald McCoy will really hurt a defence already ranked thirty-first in the league by DVOA. The Falcons offence may not have reached the heights of last season, but having found a way to win against the Saints despite Matt Ryan throwing three interceptions last week I expect them to win again this week. I’m just not sure they will win by a touchdown on the road given that they haven’t managed it all season.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Saturday Night’s Alright for Picking

16 Saturday Dec 2017

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Well after a disastrous Thursday night pick where I failed to foresee that Brock Osweiler would come in and play really well, we move to the two Saturday night games.

Bears @ Lions (-5.5)

I am tempted by the points in this one with the Chicago Bears coming off a very good looking win against the Bengals last week. However, I’m not sure how much was the Bears good play and how much was an injured Bengals team coming off a tough Monday night game that put a final nail in the coffin for their playoff hopes. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions did enough in Tampa Bay to win the game and with an outside shot at the playoffs I think they should win this one and hopefully cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Chargers @ Chiefs (+1.5)

This should be a really interesting game, and part of me definitely wants to take the points for the Chiefs as they have one of the better home advantages in the league. However, they have only won one game in their last five whilst the visiting LA Chargers have won four straight in the same period. More worrying for Chiefs fans is that their defence has been struggling and Chargers’ receiver Keenan Allen seems to be going from strength to strength with four consecutive one hundred yard games. I’ll be a little nervous about it, but I’m going to back the Chargers to win out in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Why Can’t We Have Nice Things?

14 Thursday Dec 2017

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With the loss of Carson Wentz for the rest of the season it really feels like NFL fans just can’t have nice things this year.

That said, as upsetting as it was to have the team with the best record in the NFC lose its starting quarterback, it still pales into insignificance when compared to the spinal injury the Steelers’ linebacker Ryan Shazier picked up the week before.

I was travelling to and from Newcastle last week and so didn’t really have time to write about what happened during the Pittsburgh Steelers Monday night clash with the Cincinnati Bengals in the right kind of detail and I’m still not entirely sure what the correct thing is to say. I didn’t enjoy watching the game, there was a sense of inevitability about the Steelers come back and I am very bored of the lack of discipline and the chippiness in these games. Particularly on the Bengals side but the sight of the various hits that concussed players given what had happened to Shazier was difficult to watch. We know the game is dangerous, and at some level we have to make peace with that, but that Monday night game showed a side of football that has to brought under control and that doesn’t include the play where Shazier was hurt.

To be honest I just want him to be okay, and I don’t mean a return to football. Given that the man had spinal stabilisation surgery, I want him to be able to walk around and lead his life.

Last week also saw firings in New York and Cleveland with the Giants clearing house when they fired both GM Jerry Reese and head coach Ben McAdoo whilst the Browns let go of Sashi Brown.

There have been problems with the roster for a while in New York and so letting go Jerry Reese despite him being involved in two Super Bowl wins but there is talent to build upon for whoever takes over, although the issue of a quarterback will be the major headache.

As for the Browns, I don’t really know how much was the quarterbacks they didn’t take in the draft; the failure of the AJ McCarron trade due to the paperwork not being sent in on time; or the relationship with the rest of the front office, owner, and head coach Hue Jackson who is apparently safe for now but some mix of these things got Sashi Brown fired and they have already replaced him with John Dorsey. Only time will tell how much this will affect their approach, but I would imagine something will happen around the quarterback position ahead of next season. I’m also not entirely sure that Hue Jackson will survive, particularly if the Browns fail to register a win this season despite his current vote of confidence.

I really hope that things turns round for the Browns, they have such a loyal fan base despite the woeful performance of the team for a number of years.

And now a recap of the week fourteen picks and tonight’s game.

Gee:      Week 14   8-8                     Overall   117-92
Dan:      Week 14   6-10                  Overall   108-101

Broncos @ Colts (+2.5)

This not exactly a game to set pulse rates racing and with the Denver Broncos winning their first game since their week five bye on Sunday visiting the 3-10 Indianapolis Colts. The Broncos have not won on the road all season so is this the week that they start? I don’t know is the honest answer and whilst I could regret this, I’m reverting to home team Thursday night rules and grabbing a couple of points unenthusiastically although I am curious to see how this game plays out.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

AAF: Jimmy Garoppolo

10 Sunday Dec 2017

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So for this week’s amateur adventure in file I took a look Jimmy Garoppolo’s first start for the San Francisco 49ers against the Chicago Bears.

The quotes from his team mates were glowing after the game, but this is not a set of coaching tape that initially wows you with amazing throws. Partly this is the offence as whilst it is undeniably well schemed, there is a lot more two running back sets and running than you will see from a lot of teams in the league, and partly it is that Garoppolo is an accurate thrower that doesn’t necessary throw darts. However, arm strength is often somewhat over rated and what particularly impressed me the timing of Garoppolo’s passes. Looking at his completions you would see the receiver run their route, turn for the ball and it would arrive as they got their hands up.

One of the reasons the players were open was that the 49ers offence is so well schemed. There is a lot of motion before the snap, helping Guroppolo identify coverages as well as enabling them to move the point of attack for their run depending on what play has been called. On any given pass play there are players running combinations of routes to stretch the defence, and when you have a quarterback capable of reading this then you have an effective offence.

The obvious problem in this game came in the red zone. This is perhaps not surprising given that Garoppolo has only been with the franchise for a month and everything is harder in the red zone as there is so much less room to work in. The 49ers are also a little lacking in talent at the moment, but unless this becomes a trend I would not worry too much and given the offence that Kyle Shanahan co-ordinated last year with the Atlanta Falcons, I would back him to sort this out in the long run.

The big question going forward will be how quickly they can develop this offence, but before that they have to finish the season and get Garoppolo signed up long term, but for the first time in what feels like a very long time the 49ers’ fans have something to get really excited about.

Week Fourteen Picks

10 Sunday Dec 2017

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Colts @ Bills (-3.5)

The Buffalo Bills still stand an outside chance of squeezing into the playoffs, but they need to keep winning and the injury to Tyrod Taylor’s knee seems to make it likely that Nathan Peterman will get a second start this week. I’m not sure it’s possible for Peterman to have a worse game than he did against the Chargers in week eleven but if he plays it throws real doubt on the Bills ability to win. The Indianapolis Colts come into Buffalo having lost heavily against the Jaguars and don’t have a win since week nine. Until last week they had kept their games close but even though it feels like I should pick the Colts to cover this, I can’t quite make myself do it. I could regret this but the Bills have been good at home and I just don’t trust the Colts.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Bears @ Bengals (-6.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals are coming off a very physical loss to the Steelers on Monday and thanks to injury are thin at both safety and corner on defence as well as at running back. They welcome a Chicago Bears team who may only be 3-9 but who have kept the majority of their games close. The Bengals have seemed to have found some more consistency in recent weeks but whilst I can see them winning this game, I can’t pick them to cover given the injuries and how tough the Bears defence has been playing.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Packers @ Browns (+3.5)

The Cleveland Browns are searching for a win and welcome a Green Bay Packers who will be desperate to keep themselves in with a theoretical shot at the playoffs as Aaron Rodgers recovers from his broken collar bone. This could be the week that the Browns get a win, but the Packers have something to play for and I’m just not sure what will happen. However, with the Browns getting this number of points I’m going to reluctantly pick them to keep the game within four points.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Cowboys @ Giants (+4.5)

The New York Giants might get a lift in the locker room from the firing of a head coach that clearly was not in full control of the locker room, but this doesn’t address the weakness of the roster. They welcome a Dallas Cowboys team who got their offence working a bit better last week and who look to be getting Sean Lee back on defence this week. This is a lot of points to get at home, but it is not enough to tempt me even if the Giants do have a little uptake in performance.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Lions @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

Apart from only having a 4-8 record, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been inconsistent on offence and struggled on defence. They welcome a limping Detroit Lions team who have been inconsistent as well despite being in the top half of the league by overall DVOA. It is hard to have much faith in either team and so I’m going to grab the points for the home underdog given Matthew Stafford’s hand injury.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Raiders @ Chiefs (-3.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs could get back to winning ways, but their defence has really struggled for a while now and they only have one win in seven games. The Oakland Raiders do not exactly inspire confidence either, particularly with a defence that is ranked last in the league by DVOA. Although Arrowhead Stadium is a famously loud place to play, on their recent form I just can’t pick the Chiefs to win by four.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Vikings @ Panthers (+2.5)

This should be an interesting game, but I have a lot more faith in the Minnesota Vikings’ ability to move the ball on the tough Carolina Panthers defence than vice versa. This could be one tough road game too many for the Vikings, but even with the Panthers getting points at home, it’s not quite enough to sway me from backing what could well be the best team in the league, even if the DVOA rankings do only have the Vikings listed as sixth.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

49ers @ Texans (-2.5)

The San Francisco 49ers are coming off a narrow win over the Bears in Jimmy Guroppolo’s first start and look to have found their franchise quarterback. However, as good as he looked, he didn’t get into the end zone against the Bears and this week they are on the road again facing the wounded Houston Texans team. The Texans have struggled ever since Deshaun Watson went down, and have lost two straight coming into this game. On paper the Texans should have enough to beat the 49ers, and whilst I do wonder what lift Guroppolo will give the 49ers it is just too early for me to back them in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Jets @ Broncos (+0.5)

The Denver Broncos have now lost eight straight games and with the issues at quarterback it is hard to see things improving drastically until the offseason. This week they face a scrappy New York Jets team who are very evenly ranked across all three phases of the game by DVOA. Even though only one of their five wins has come on the road, it is hard to look past the Jets given that the Broncos offence ranks dead last by DVOA and whilst the Broncos obviously could win, I can’t pick that to happen.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Titans @ Cardinals (+2.5)

The Arizona Cardinals have stayed competitive despite the injuries they have suffered on offence, but with Adrian Peterson still injured and looking to be out for this game it is hard to see things improving for them. They welcome a Tennessee Titans team that have ground out an 8-4 record despite being ranked twentieth overall by DVOA. I don’t think this game will set many pulses raising outside of the Cardinals and Titans’ fan bases, but I expect the Titans to keep the momentum they have gathered rolling.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Washington @ Chargers (-6.5)

The line of this game does give me pause, but the LA Chargers are on a three game win streak and really seem to have found their formula now. They welcome a very injured Washington team who are a tough out but there is only so much Kirk Cousins can do behind their current offensive line. The lack of home field advantage the Chargers have since their move to LA does concern me, but their excellent pass rush will likely be terrifying to face for Washington. I do see the Chargers winning but I’m just not convinced they will win by seven yet in the end that is what I am nervously going to pick.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Eagles @ Rams (-2.5)

This is another huge game as the LA Rams welcome the Philadelphia Eagles. The LA Rams come into this game on a two game winning streak and will be hoping to stop the Eagles bouncing back from their loss to the Seahawks last week. In a game that pits the top two teams in the league by DVOA against each other I am going to grab the points and enjoy what should be a cracking game.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Seahawks @ Jaguars (-2.5)

The Seattle Seahawks got an excellent win last week, but whilst their defence proved it can hold up despite the injuries to Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor and should be fine against the Jaguars one dimensional offence, their offence could really struggle the Jacksonville Jaguars’ second ranked by DVOA defence. In particular the scary Jaguars pass rush could have a field day against the Seahawks suspect offensive line. I’m not saying the Seahawks can’t win, particularly after last week, but on the road I’m not sure I can pick it to happen.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Ravens @ Steelers (-5.5)

I am sure the Pittsburgh Steelers come into this game with Ryan Shazier very much on their minds, and there will be players paying tribute to the injured linebacker with their cleats in this game. The Baltimore Ravens lead the league in defence and special teams by DVOA and are grinding their way through the season. The play of Ben Roethlisberger is noticeably better at home than it is on the road, and having beaten the Ravens on the road by seventeen, I think the Steelers could cover this line. They showed the mental toughness to come back and win last week after being down 17-0 in the second quarter, but after such a physical game I do wonder if there will be a let-down this week, yet in the end I’m going to back the Steelers to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Patriots @ Dolphins (+11.5)

The Miami Dolphins have often played the New England Patriots tough at home, but give the way their season has gone and their recent performances, I just can’t pick them to do it again. I’m sure Dan will be very happy for me to be proved wrong, but in front of the nation I think the Patriots will be too focussed to let the Dolphins have a sniff in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Quick Thursday Night Pick

07 Thursday Dec 2017

Posted by in Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

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Only time for a quick pick tonight so here are the results from last night and what I think might happen.

Gee:      Week 13   12-4                   Overall   109-84
Dan:      Week 13   8-8                     Overall   102-91

Saints @ Falcons (+0.5)

I’ve said this about Thursday night games a few times this season, but this really should be a good game. The New Orleans Saints have been transformed this year and stand atop of the NFC South as they welcome their division rivals the Atlanta Falcons who have struggled at various points through the season but are still 7-5 and in the playoff hunt. However, if they are to stay there then the Falcons can ill afford to lose this game and with them being at home as well as desperate I am going to tip the Falcons to edge this one out although I would not be surprised if the Saints won. Certainly that would please Dan.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Saints