Ravens @ Jaguars (+4.5)

The weekend’s games start with the first London game, where the Jacksonville Jaguars host the Baltimore Ravens at Wembley, and it is a tricky game for me to pick this week. The Jaguars followed up their opening game win with a loss to the Tennessee Titans, and the problems with having such a one dimensional offence showed themselves, particularly having lost receiver Allen Robinson for the season to an ACL injury. The problem for me is that the Raven also had a big loss when guard Marshal Yonder was lost for the season with an ankle fracture. The Raven’s offensive balance is why they’ve looked better this year and losing one of the best guards could really hurt their ability to run the ball.

In the last two seasons the Jaguars have won their London game, and with that bit more practice at travelling I’m not saying they will win, but I do feel with two good defences this could be a closer game than you might first think and I’m picking the Jaguars to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Falcons @ Lions (+2.5)

This should be a cracking game, with two unbeaten teams meeting. The Atlanta Falcons offence looked better in their home opener last week, and they travel to face a Detroit Lions team who keep finding a way to win. I don’t have a strong lean either way in this one, but in a close game if I’m getting points as a home team then I am going to grab them and look forward to watching the game.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Broncos @ Bills (+3.5)

This looks to be a surprisingly good game despite the Buffalo Bills offseason rebuilding, as it looks like new head coach Sean McDermott has got his team playing for him and the defence looks good already. I have also been impressed with the Denver Broncos’ start to the season, but in what could be a closer game than you might expect I’m again going to grab points for a home team.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Steelers @ Bears (+7.5)

I want to pick the Chicago Bears in this one. The Pittsburgh Steelers have a nasty habit of playing down to their opponents and the Bears defence has looked promising at times, but the Steelers’ offence looks like it is coming together and I just think they have too much for the Bears.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Browns @ Colts (+0.5)

I don’t remember the last time the Cleveland Browns were favoured in a game, yet alone on the road, but the Indianapolis Colts gave a more credible effort last week and could have beaten the Arizona Cardinals. The Browns still haven’t got Myles Garrett to play a regular season game, whilst losing receiver Corey Coleman to broken hand for the second season in a row hurts. I’m really not sure where to go in this one, but I’ll stick to my faith in the Browns and their coach for now, but I am curious about how this game will play out.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Dolphins @ Jets (+6.5)

The Miami Dolphins got off to a winning start, and this week and face a New York Jets team who have shown very little of anything. We thought going into the season that the Jets were going to be bad, but it is still shocking to see how uncompetitive they have been, and I don’t see anything here to stop me from picking the Dolphins to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Buccaneers @ Vikings (-2.5)

In a league where increasingly home field advantage is being reduced, the Minnesota Vikings seem to have bucked the trend with their noisy new stadium. Add to this a really good defence and this should be a decided advantage, but with quarterback Sam Bradford looking like he will miss a second week due to a knee problem I will back the Tampa Buccaneers on the road. Their defence looks equally scary, and with young quarterback Jameis Winston continuing his development, I feel like the Vikings would need Bradford to win this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Texans @ Patriots (-13.5)

The New England Patriots beat the Houston Texans 27-0 last season whilst starting Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. The Patriots got back on track with an easy win last week, although they did pick up more injuries top pass catchers. However, the Texans did not exactly look great against the Bengals last week and despite being slightly nervous about the line, I think the Patriots will cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Saints @ Panthers (-6.5)

The Carolina Panthers have needed their defence to play as well as it has because their offence has not looked good so far this season. The New Orleans Saints defence might be just what the doctor ordered, especially with them rotating through defensive linemen trying to find something that works, but the loss of Cam Newton’s safest receiver in tight end Greg Olson could really hurt them. I’m not sure that the Saints will win, especially on the road, but I think this could be a closer game than this line suggest. I’m nervously backing the Saints in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Giants @ Eagles (-5.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles have got off to a solid start to the season, and welcome a New York Giants team who have been struggling on offence. It’s not just that Odell Beckham has been fighting an ankle injury, but the offensive line has been dire in pass protection and the tackles haven’t been given scheme help. It is not necessarily surprising that the Giants’ defence has taken a bit of a step back from last year’s improvement, but despite it being more likely for a team to go 1-2 rather than 0-3, I see nothing in this game that would give a Giants’ fan hope. I think right now the Eagles are a better a team, watch this game come back to bite me.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Seahawks @ Titans (-2.5)

The Seattle Seahawks defence continues to be really good, but their offensive line also continues to make Russell Wilson run for his life. The Tennessee Titans have a pair of bookend tackles that should allow their offense to function despite the Seahawks’ scary front seven, and I fancy them to get the win at home against a Seahawks team who are designed to peak later in the season.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Bengals  @ Packers (-9.5)

The Green Bay Packers struggled last week against the Atlanta Falcons missing both their starting tackles on offense, and with their defence looking more fragile. This week they welcome a struggling Cincinnati Bengals team who have yet to score a touchdown, which is why they have a new offensive co-ordinator. I don’t hold out much hope of a dramatic turn around, but given the strength of the Bengal’s defence this year, and that it looks like the Packer’s o-line could still be in flux, I do fancy the Bengals to cover this big line even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Chiefs @ Chargers (+3.5)

The LA Chargers have so far managed to lose two close games, but this week they welcome a Kansas City Chiefs team who have started the year on fire. The Chargers have not exactly built a big following in LA, and this game feels like it will only go one way. You never know until the game is played, but with the Chiefs explosive offence and stout defence I don’t think they will have a problem covering this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Raiders @ Washington (+3.5)

So Jay Gruden did the unexpected and kept his Washington team running the football last week as they travelled to LA and beat the Rams. However, the Oakland Raiders are a totally different proposition having picked up from last year and look fearsome. The points do give me a slight pause, but the Raiders feel like they are on a roll and I don’t think Washington have the offence to keep up.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Cowboys @ Cardinals (+3.5)

This week’s games are closed out on Monday night by a struggling Arizona Cardinals team hosting the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys got shut down last week in Denver, with the passing game not really working and Ezekiel Elliot getting completely stuffed in the running game. This week they travel to Arizona, who have their own running problems with running back David Johnson out with a wrist injury. The Cowboys are not a team that inspire much confidence in me, but neither are the Cardinals at the moment, and as reluctant as I am to back the Cowboys, if you’re a team who struggles to beat the Colts then I can’t back you to cover this line against the Cowboys who will be looking to bounce back from a tough loss.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Bills @ Panthers (-7.5)

The Buffalo Bills got off to a winning start thanks to facing the lowly Jets in week one, but face a much sterner test as they travel to face the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers defence played really well in their opening game, allowing Cam Newton to be rusty as he works his way back from his offseason shoulder surgery. I think the Bills are going to struggle in this game, but the question is whether the Panthers can win by eight. I think they can, but I’m not prepared to pick it quite yet.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Bears @ Buccaneers (-6.5)

There are alternative universes where the Chicago Bears won their first game, but in this world they couldn’t quite pull things together and as well as losing the game they lost receiver Kevin White for the season again. The first round draft pick just can’t stay healthy and the Bears will need to rethink how they build their receiving group for next season. This week however, they travel to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Bucs opening game of the season following last week’s postponement. The Buccaneers looked like a young promising team in Hard Knocks, and I expect them to win. This is another game where I could see the home team covering a big spread, but I’m not quite brave enough to pick it just yet.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Browns @ Ravens (-7.5)

The Baltimore Ravens defence was good, even if the Bengals leant them a hand in pitching a shut out last week by being not very good on offence. They will need to open up the offence more, but it appears the Ravens’ formula for this season is to play good defence and special teams whilst running the ball. The Cleveland Browns however, put up a very creditable performance against the Steelers last week, and I expect them to keep themselves within eight points of the Ravens.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Titans @ Jaguars (+1.5)

This is a really tricky game for me to pick as the Jacksonville Jaguars got their season off to a winning start in beating the Houston Texans on the road. The defence got ten sacks, and their offence bludgeoned the Texans with the running game. Not making Blake Bortles throw to win the game improves their chances of winning, but how successful across an entire season they can be with this formula is hard to tell. They welcome a Tennessee Titans team who lost their home opener to the Raiders and who didn’t look like themselves. The new receivers the Titans procured for Marcus Mariota in the offseason seemed to alter the way the Titans ran their offence, whilst the defence couldn’t slow down the Raiders enough to keep them in the game. I’m not totally sure where to go in this one, but the Titans are going to be desperate to get back on track and at this point I still think they are the better team.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Cardinals @ Colts (+8.5)

The Arizona Cardinals did not get off to a good start, with Carson Palmer throwing bad interceptions and David Johnson lost for most of the season to a wrist injury. The only good news is that they are facing an Indianapolis Colts team who look like they could be the worst team in the league until Andrew Luck comes back from injury. I could regret this, but I’m backing the infrastructure of the Cardinals to see them through, but I’m nervous about the number of points I’m giving away.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Eagles @ Chiefs (-4.5)

This should be a good game as both teams are coming of good wins on the road. The Philadelphia Eagles got a divisional win in Washington, with Carson Wentz continuing his progress in his second year and a defence that looks pretty good. However, this week they travel to face the Kansas City Chiefs who have one of the better home field advantages in the league, and who have had ten days to prepare having beaten the Patriots in the season opener. The Chiefs offence looks to have gained a new dimension with Alex Smith pushing the ball down field, and with all the speed at their disposal I fancy them to come out victorious in this one. The loss of Eric Berry does give me pause, but I think the Chiefs are going to be very strong this year.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Vikings @ Steelers (-6.5)

This should be a cracking game, but is one of the few lines that I think is just wrong. The Pittsburgh Steelers got their win in week one, but are still working their way into form on offence with Le’Veon Bell having held out all pre-season. I’m not adjusting my expectations for the Steelers, but this week they welcome a Vikings team who looked very good in week one. The new stadium in Minnesota does appear to be incredibly noisy, but even without this advantage their defence looks formidable and a retooled offence line has bred life into their offence. I’m not saying the Vikings will definitely win, but I expect this game to be much more competitive that this line suggests.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Patriots @ Saints (+5.5)

The New Orleans Saints need a defence, or at least a secondary that could limit the amount of points that quarterback Drew Brees has to match on offence. However, the signs were in week one that this problem has not been solved, and this week they welcome a wounded Patriots team. The Patriots may have lost their home opener, and there are definite questions about their offence with all the new receiving options, and a defence that struggled to contain the Chiefs speed. However, you would back Bill Belichick and his staff to find a way. This line does make me pause, but in the end I don’t have that much faith in the Saints to keep this one close.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Jets @ Raiders (-14.5)

The New York Jets did not look good in week one, and travel out to Oakland to face a Raiders team who looked very good. I was surprised how strong the Raiders’ defence looked against the Titans, and the addition of Marshawn Lynch to the Raiders added yet more balance to their offence. This is a huge line to cover, but I do actually think the Raiders are a team that can cover it against these Jets.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Dolphins @ Chargers (-3.5)

This is a more difficult game to pick as the Miami Dolphins are the other team who had a game postponed last week, as well as starting a quarterback who up until a few weeks ago was going to be a commentator this season. However, I have a lot of faith in Adam Gase and they are travelling to an LA Chargers team who very much looked like the Chargers last week. For large parts of the game they were outplayed by the Broncos, then they managed to turn things round with two quick touchdowns, but just missed out at the end of the game with a blocked field goal. The extra half point makes me join Dan in picking the Dolphins, but I don’t feel like I have a confident opinion on this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Cowboys @ Broncos (+1.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have got to keep Ezekiel Elliott for now, but Tom Brady eventually had to server his ban and I think Elliott will too. However for now, the Cowboys offence rolls on and once again their defensive co-ordinator Rod Marinelli seems to have created a defence that is greater than the sum of its parts. This week however, they travel to a Broncos team who I thought looked pretty good in week one, particularly with the improvements to their offence. I might be tempted by the Broncos getting points at home, except that they didn’t look that good against the run to me, and with the Cowboys coming to town you know there’s going to be a healthy dose of run coming their way.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Washington @ Rams (-2.5)

The LA Rams did what they were supposed to do against the Colts last week and got rookie head coach Sean McVay his first win, but his old team Washington should pose a sterner test. However, an offseason of change and disarray does not seem to have produced a Washington team ready to thrive early in the season, and they look like they are missing, McVay’s talents at offensive co-ordinator. This might be a trap pick, but I think I’m going with the Rams in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

49ers @ Seahawks (-12.5)

The San Francisco 49ers struggled against the Panthers last week and it is hard to see them doing anything else travelling to the Seattle Seahawks this week. It will take time for Kyle Shanahan’s scheme to bed in, whilst Seattle were competitive against the Packers in week one. The problem for the Seahawks is as ever their offensive line, and it is only these issues that will stop me from picking the Seahawks to cover this line. I am very confident the Seahawks will win, but I expect a low scoring affair.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Packers @ Falcons (-2.5)

The Atlanta Falcons got their win against the Bears last week, but they were far from their performances of last year. The Falcons are opening a new stadium this week, but are welcoming a Green Bay Packers team whose defence might have made a step up from last year, and still have Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson on offence. It did take a little time for the Packers to find their feet against a Seahawks’ defence that looks as good as ever, but facing such a defence should stand them in good stead against the Falcons. I am going with the Packers in this one, but it is more of a lean than a definitive pick.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Lions @ Giants (-4.5)

The New York Giants struggled last week, and we still don’t know when star receiver Odell Beckham will return. More worryingly, Eli Manning did not look at his best and really hasn’t for a while now, which at thirty-six is perhaps not surprising but might be a warning sign for this season. The Detroit Lions meanwhile started the season with a win against the misfiring Cardinals and whilst I’m not sure how far their defence will take them, I like them getting this number of points.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

With one game done, it is now time for Dan and I to pick the rest of the week 1 games as the season really gets going tonight.

Falcons @ Bears (+7.5)

We saw last season that the Super Bowl hang over for the losing side can be very real, but I am not expecting the Atlanta Falcons to fall off in the way the Carolina Panthers did last year. Their defence continues to improve, but the loss of Kyle Shanahan as offensive co-ordinator will have an effect although there is plenty of talent on that side of the ball.

The Chicago Bears had a curious offseason, trading up one slot to pick a quarterback having just handed out a big contract to free agent Mike Glennon. They can’t be as injured on defence as last season, but whilst I doubt they will win, I’m not prepared to back the Falcons to cover this line on the road with all that’s happened to them, and so it’s time for my first nervous pick of the year.

Gee’s Pick:            Bears
Dan’s Pick:            Falcons

Jets @ Bills (-6.5)

The New York Jets are definitely going through a process of rebuilding, as are the Buffalo Bills, but whilst the Bills have been trading away players as they try to build a new team culture the Jets look to have virtually torn their roster down to the ground to rebuild it. I’m don’t feel extremely confident about this, but I’m backing the Bills to cover this at home against a Jets team who are going to struggle all year.

Gee’s Pick:            Bills
Dan’s Pick:            Bills

Ravens @ Bengals (-2.5)

I would be very worried about the Baltimore Ravens’ offence if I were a fan of that team. We have not seen Joe Flacco in the pre-season thanks to a back injury, their much vaunted offensive line has been in flux and they are starting out on the road, although their defence should be strong again this year. The Cincinnati Bengals have their own questions on at offence tackle, but I like the young talent and depth on defence, and I fancy them to get off to a winning start at home with Andy Dalton having plenty of options on offence.

Gee’s Pick:            Bengals
Dan’s Pick:            Ravens

Steelers @ Browns (+9.5)

Many have argued that the Pittsburgh Steelers could be the class of the AFC, with the return of dynamic receiver Martavis Bryant to an already scary offence, combined with an improving defence which head coach Mike Tomlin is shaping in his own image, I would not disagree. However, I also like the direction the Cleveland Browns are heading in, and whilst I do not expect them to be pushing for the playoffs, the Browns will cause teams problems this year and I expect them to do better than last season. That said, with first round draft pick Myles Garrett picking up a high ankle sprain on Wednesday, there could well be a feeling of not again surfacing in Cleveland. Still, this is a very high line for a road team and I’m going to back the Browns to cover, I just wish their new pass rusher was starting. I may regret this…

Gee’s Pick:            Browns
Dan’s Pick:            Steelers

Cardinals @ Lions (-2.5)

The Arizona Cardinals travel to Detroit with commentators talking about it being another last chance season for Carson Palmer, Larry Fitzgerald, and possibly Bruce Arians. Still, I have a lot of faith in the coaching staff of the Cardinals, and the presented reason for Palmer’s improvement in the second half of last season being due to them restricting his number of throws in practice does at least make sense given he is thirty-seven. They face a Lions team that have just signed quarterback Matthew Stafford to a huge contract off the back of several strong years under offensive co-ordinator Jim Bob Cooter, but the defence worries me and I think the Lions could have a tough year as a result. After all, for Stafford to have all those fourth quarter comebacks last year, the Lions had to go into the fourth quarter losing in the first place.

Gee’s Pick:            Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:            Cardinals

Raiders @ Titans (+0.5)

This should be a great game between two developing teams. The Oakland Raiders looked set for a strong showing in the playoffs before Derek Carr broke his leg, but everyone is expecting them to be good again this year. I’m not sure how much running back Marshawn Lynch has left in the tank as he comes out of retirement, but if Lynch cam manage the kind of runs that made him famous for Seattle then that could help open up the field for Carr, but questions remain about the Raiders defence.

The Tennessee Titans took a step forward last season, with Dick LeBeau helping to transform the defence (LeBeau will become the oldest person to call an NFL defence this season and was subject of an excellent MMQB podcast that’s worth looking up) and the offence making exotic smashmouth work for their young quarterback. The running game is often a young quarterback’s best friend, and only time will tell if the receivers that were added to the roster in the offseason help open up the offence for Marcus Mariota.

In a game that is a straight choice, I’m going to back the team who made the playoffs last season but I could regret it. This should be a great game.

Gee’s Pick:            Raiders
Dan’s Pick:            Titans

Buccanneers @ Dolphins

Due to hurricane Irma, this game has been postponed to week 11, meaning both teams will play sixteen straight games in what will be a real test for both teams, but that seems kind of insignificant right now.

Eagles @ Washington (-2.5)

There is a lot of buzz about the Philadelphia Eagles, with the overhaul of their receivers giving hope for the continued development of their second year quarterback Carson Wentz. There is also a belief that the defence will be good this year. I can certainly see the reasons for such hope, but I have not seen it in the flesh yet, whereas Washington have been solid for the last couple of season through their own rebuild. The overhaul of their receivers was curious given the team’s success, and we enter another season with questions about Kirk Cousins’ long term future, but he keeps throwing for over four thousand yards a season. I could very easily regret this, but right now I’m backing Washington to win at home

Gee’s Pick:            Washington
Dan’s Pick:            Eagles

Jaguars @ Texans (-4.5)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a defence that looks like it should be really good, but the offence worries me a lot. It’s all very well committing to the running game, but setting up the pass with the run is really a myth, and what you need is a convincing threat of being able to be either balanced with run/pass, or flexible enough to wrong foot the defence with one of them being predominant. If the Jaguars just try to bludgeon teams with rookie runner Leonard Fournette they will see endless eight man boxes, and I don’t think anyone feels like Blake Bortles currently has the form to take advantage of this. Facing a Houston Texans defence that looks like it could be one of the best in the league, I expect the Jaguars to struggle. There are questions at quarterback again for the Texans, but this team keeps winning their division, and they will be looking to give their city something to rally around after the recent flooding. I think the Texans will win, and although the line does give me pause, it does not stop me picking the Texans.

Gee’s Pick:            Texans
Dan’s Pick:            Texans

Colts @ Rams (+3.5)

We don’t know for how long the Indianapolis Colts will be without Andrew Luck, and right now they don’t see to have much to hang their hats on without him having struggled in preseason. They travel to LA to face a Rams team that even without Aarond Donald should have enough on defence to contain the current Colts offence. The question for Rams fans will be can Jared Goff develop into a starting quarterback under the guidance of an offensive minded head coach, but I fancy the Rams to win this one, and if I’m getting points at home as well then I’m definitely going to take them. Don’t let me down Rams…

Gee’s Pick:            Rams
Dan’s Pick:            Rams

Seahawks @ Packers (-2.5)

This looks to be game of the week, although the Chiefs and Patriots did a fine job of starting the season on Thursday. Still with the Seattle Seahawks defence matching up against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offence, we have one of best matchups in the league. In recent meetings between these two teams it has tended to be the home team who have won, and whilst in recent years the Packers have got off to sometimes sluggish starts, I fancy them to win this one at Lambeau Field.

Gee’s Pick:            Packers
Dan’s Pick:            Packers

Panthers @ 49ers (+5.5)

The Carolina Panthers are trying to overhaul their offence after their struggles last season and to protect their running quarterback Cam Newton, but despite the addition of Christian McCaffrey as a running back who can catch out of the backfield, Newton has never been the most accurate of short passers and given his should surgery, he has not had a lot of time to work with his new receiving options. I will also be worried about the health of Luke Kuechly all season and so whilst I expect the Panthers to be better this year than last, I’m not sure you can immediately expect them to turn things round in week one. Particularly when they are heading to face a San Francisco 49ers team who are beginning their own transformation under a new GM and head coach. I’m not expecting the 49ers to challenge for the playoffs or anything, but I think they will demonstrate progress and if you are giving me five and a half points at home against a team who I think need to prove themselves again, then I am going to take them.

Gee’s Pick:            49ers
Dan’s Pick:            49ers

Giants @ Cowboys (-4.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have never shied away from controversial players, and we are still not sure what the situation for Ezekiel Elliott will be long term, but he is playing in this game. However, the much vaunted Cowboys offensive line has had a reshuffle and the defence lost a lot of players. I’m not sure that this team are necessarily as locked in to repeat last year’s feats as many seem to think. They welcome a New York Giants team who may have a banged up Odell Beckham, but who have been adding to Eli Manning’s passing options in the offseason, and the defence could be very good again even if they might take a step back after last year’s amazing turnaround. Sill, having beaten the Cowboys twice last season, I’m happy to take the four and a half points and hope for a cover.

Gee’s Pick:            Giants
Dan’s Pick:            Giants

Saints @ Vikings (-3.5)

There are two Monday night games this week, and the first sees the New Orleans Saints travel to face a tough Minnesota Vikings defence. The Saints only need their defence to improve from bottom of the league to respectable for them to be truly competitive given that Drew Brees is still throwing for five thousand yards a year. But this is a tough start to the season for them as the Vikings seem to have already developed a good home advantage in what last year was a new stadium, but the offensive line limited their effectiveness on offence although Sam Bradford still managed a record setting level of accuracy. With a bit more stability this year the Vikings are likely to be very competitive, and I’m backing them in this one at home, although I am looking forward to seeing how the Saints might develop.

Gee’s Pick:            Vikings
Dan’s Pick:            Vikings

Chargers @ Broncos (-3.5)

This final game of the week is giving me some trouble to pick, because the Broncos defence has been a little unsettled in the front seven in the last two seasons, and they have just released TJ Ward in the final round of cuts at the end of preseason. They will be hoping to have developed the offensive line enough to help Trevor Siemian and the offensive be more effective as they were very limited last season. With the Chargers moving to LA, there will be a degree of disruption floating round that certainly hurt the Rams last year, but the roster does appear to turning round. The addition of Joey Bosa gave the Chargers defence a real lift when he played, and certainly when I saw the Chargers in preseason I was impressed.

One of these new head coaches will get a win, but I’m finding it hard to predict which one, and with the Broncos needing to win by four to cover this I’m grabbing the points and hoping the Chargers won’t let me down despite traveling to a difficult place to play.

Gee’s Pick:            Chargers
Dan’s Pick:            Broncos

Looking at the week’s line, and not being sure who will be playing is making picking games pretty hard, particularly as Dan had a stunning week sixteen and overhauled a four point deficit to go into this final week with a point lead.

Still, for the final time for this season, let’s go through full sixteen game slate.

Gee:      Week 16   8-8                     Overall   114-126
Dan:      Week 16   13-3                   Overall   115-125

Bill @ Jets (+3.5)

The Jets have limped into the end of the season with a horrible loss to the Patriots last week, and given their performances over recent weeks, I can’t see them winning this one at home, even if they are playing the inconsistent Bills. I don’t know what effect not having the Ryan brothers coaching, or EJ Manuel will have at quarterback, but in a competition where I can’t skip games, I’m backing the Bills to cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Bears @ Vikings (-5.5)

The Vikings lost against a surging Packers team last week and now host a Bears team who got their own drubbing last week. This feels like to many points for the Vikings to cover, but the Bears were horrible last week. It’s a hard one for me to predict, but my gut says this is too many points for a disappointing Vikings team.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

Ravens @ Bengals (-2.5)

The Ravens got knocked out of the playoffs last week, but they are a consistent team that will be looking to cement a winning record and this could be Steve Smith’s final game in what has been an impressive career for the receiver. The Bengals keep teams close, but I find it hard to believe that they will win this one and I don’t believe they are the better team and so I’m taking the points.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Browns @ Steelers (-6.5)

With the news of the various players on offence that the Steelers are resting, I think that the Browns may well cover in this game. I’m going to look a fool if Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, or Antonio Brown do play, but under the circumstances I think that the rest makes sense and so the Browns follow up their first win of the season by covering. Hopefully…

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Cowboys @ Eagles (-2.5)

This is another game where starters could be rested as the Cowboys have secured home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They also travel to Philadelphia to face an Eagles team coming off an excellent win against the Giants the previous Thursday night. It’s a hard game to predict, but in the end I’m going to stick with the home team.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Texans @ Titans (-2.5)

The Titans not only were knocked out of the playoffs last week, but lost Marcus Mariota to a broken leg and it is hard to see them winning out in a game against a Texans team who really need to find a rhythm with recently promoted to starting quarterback Tom Savage leading the offence before the playoffs, whilst their defence has been good for most of the season.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Jaguars @ Colts (-4.5)

This is a hard game to pick given that the Colts are coming off a close loss to the Raiders and a big win against the Vikings, whilst the Jaguars were beating the Titans even before Mariota was injured, but both teams have disappointed this year. In the end I’m not prepared to back the Jaguars on the back of one good game, and if I could stay away from this game I would, but as I can’t I’ll reluctantly chose the Colts to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Patriots @ Dolphins (+9.5)

The Dolphins have a pretty good record against the Patriots in Miami, and this seems a surprisingly large line given that the Patriots have little to play for this week ahead of their bye and so I will join Dan in backing the Dolphins in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Panthers @ Buccaneers (-6.5)

The Panthers looked back to themselves for a small stretch this season, but Cam Newton has not been playing well and the loss of Luke Kuechly to concussion has hurt the defence a lot. The Buccaneers theoretically still have a chance to make the playoffs, but for all practical purposes they are eliminated, yet they will still want to win this one and at home they stand a fair chance. However, the big question is whether they can cover this line, and although their overall DVOA is pretty similar, the weighted by opponent ranking significantly improves for the Bucs and in the end I just have this feeling that they will.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Saints @ Falcons (-6.5)

This is another large line, but the Falcons have been playing well and against many teams might be good to cover it, however the Saints are coming into this game with their own two game winning streak. However, as good as Drew Brees has been, the Saints defence is likely to struggle to slow down the Falcons who can secure a bye with a win and in the end I think they will be too good for the Saints.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Raiders @ Broncos (-1.5)

The Broncos lie third in the competitive AFC West as both of last year’s Super Bowl teams failed to make the playoffs. Meanwhile the Raiders can secure a bye week with a win but sadly lost Derek Carr to a broken leg last week. I don’t know if backup Matt McGloin can get them the win or what the Raiders can do in the playoffs, but the Broncos have struggled on offence all season, and even their defence struggled last week. Coming into this game with a three game losing streak I find it hard to pick the Broncos and the Raiders need to prepare what they have for the playoffs.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Chiefs @ Chargers (+5.5)

I am wary of this game as the Chargers won a prospective final game in San Diego last season when it seemed like they could be leaving, and it looks like they will be moving this year, but the team is just so injured and the Chiefs are a team with playoff seeding to play for. I could be wrong, but I do see the Chiefs continuing their excellent regular season run and covering this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Cardinals @ Rams (+6.5)

The Rams continued their losing streak against the 49ers despite having a 21-7 lead in the fourth quarter, but they still struggle and it is hard to see them beating a Cardinals team who appear to be trying to finish strongly. An impressive season from David Johnson has not helped the Cardinals push for the playoffs, but they will want to avenge their week four loss. The line makes me worry, but there is a big difference in the DVOA figures between these teams that makes me think the Cardinals will cover, albeit slightly nervously.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Giants @ Washington (-7.5)

Washington needs to win this game to get in the playoffs, and the Giants have nothing to play for as they are locked into the fifth seed. The line makes me pause, but the offence of Washington has been playing very well for much of this season and if the Giants begin to rest their starters ahead of the playoffs I can see Washington covering this line. I’m changing my mind on this one, which is always dangerous, but under the circumstances and with the game being played in Washington, I think that Washington can and will cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Seahawks @ 49ers (+9.5)

This is another big line, and I find it hard to think that the Seahawks will definitely cover this one given the problems they have had on offence thanks to the injuries. In fact the Seahawks are limping into the playoffs having lost start safety Earl Thomas to injury, but that said the 49ers have lost to everyone bar the Rams in a season where they have really struggled. I want to pick the 49ers, but I just can’t bring myself to do it.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Packers @Lions (+3.5)

This is the big game of the week, with the winner getting into the playoffs. The Lions have faltered in recent weeks, whilst the Packers who were at 4-6 had Aaron Rodgers claim they would win out and are now only this game from doing just that. He has also played very well as the Packers won five straight and it does feel that the Packers have all the momentum coming into this one. A lot of the Lions success was built on last minute comebacks, but a 9-6 record belies their ranking of twenty-seventh by DVOA and in the end I can’t pick against the Packers in this game. I am really looking forward to seeing what happens though.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

It must be a strange week to have your family running round doing Christmas things whilst you prepare for a game of football, particularly if you’re playing on Christmas day, but time to get our picks sorted for the week as I do my own preparations. It appears that there is always one more thing to do…

Gee:      Week 15   9-7                     Overall   106-118
Dan:      Week 15   7-9                     Overall   102-122

Falcons @ Panthers (+2.5)

The Panthers are coming off a win against Washington having largely played better in recent weeks, although things are still not quite right on offence. However, the Falcons are on a real roll at the moment and so despite giving away points on the road, I am going to back them against the Panthers.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Dolphins @ Bills (-3.5)

The Dolphins are finding a way to win this season, whilst the Bills have been erratic but are also coming off a win from last week. The Bills got theirs off the back of another strong running performance from LeSean McCoy where he racked up one hundred and fifty-three yards, hitting one hundred and fifty yards for the second time this season. This is not a great sign for the Dolphins who rank twenty-second in rush defence by DVOA, but I have more trust in the Dolphins and think they will at least keep this game closer than four points.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Washington @ Bears (+2.5)

After their poor loss against the Panthers, Washington have to win this game to keep their outside shot at making the playoffs alive, but the Bears are a tougher prospect than their record might suggest. There are some signs on defence that there are things to build on, and Matt Barkley has earned himself another contract somewhere in the NFL, if only as a backup quarterback. However, I think that Washington are the better team and so once again I find myself giving up points on the road.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Chargers @ Browns (+6.5)

The San Diego Chargers rank one place lower than the Bills by DVOA, but are on a three game losing streak as they travel to Cleveland. I have been saying for a couple of weeks that the Browns best chance of a win would be this game, although no team is going to want to be the one who loses to this Browns team. However, getting this number of points is tempting, and with the Chargers coming across the country to play in the cold I see a low scoring game, that makes me think the Browns will cover even if they don’t win.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Vikings @ Packers (-6.5)

The Vikings had Adrian Peterson return last week, but things took a dramatic turn for the worse as they lost heavily to the Colts with Andrew Luck throwing for two hundred and fifty yards with touchdowns. Things don’t get any easier this week as they are on the road to face a resurgent Green Pay in Lambeau Field. I think that the Vikings will likely lose this game, but the Packers only just beat the Bears by three and this line has me worried, I want to pick the Vikings but their capitulation has me worried and so whilst I don’t expect a repeat performance, I can’t bring myself to pick them.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Titans @ Jaguars (+4.5)

The Jaguars may have an interim head coach, but I’m not sure how much of a boost they will get given their standard of play all season, after all it is not like you can fix Blake Bortles’ throwing mechanics in a week, especially as he’s carrying a shoulder injury. So fans of the Titans might dread this pick as I always seem to be wrong when it comes to the Titans this year, but I see them winning this one fairly easily and covering this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Jets @ Patriots (-16.5)

This is a tough one for me to predict as the Jets have lost two of their last four games badly, including to the Dolphins last week who were starting their backup quarterback. Yet this is a huge line and as good as the Patriots are, I can’t quite bring myself to pick them in this case. I hope that I’m not making a mistake, but I can’t bring myself to back a team to win by seventeen points, there’s just too much to go wrong!

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Colts @ Raiders (-3.5)

This is a confusing game to me as the Colts are coming off a huge win against the Vikings, whilst the Raiders have had more than their share of close/comeback wins this season. The Colts could follow up with another good performance, but I am not convinced about the way their team is constructed and so I am going to put my faith in the team with the better record and hope the extra half point at home doesn’t bite me.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

49ers @ Rams (-3.5)

So the Rams get a chance to play having had a decent amount of time under their interim head coach, but I’m really not sure how much can be done about their offence, which had misfired all season. The problem is that the 49ers have hardly looked much better having lost their last twelve. The Rams have at least won some games, and have recognisable players on defence that are good, but a three and a half point line looks like a lot when you consider their record. In the end I do have more faith in the players the Rams have and so very reluctantly I’m backing the Rams to cover this line at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Buccaneers @ Saints (-2.5)

So partly this game is about which Saints team is going to turn up, the one who has scored more than thirty points seven times this season and who beat the Cardinals last week, or the team who lost to the Buccaneers two weeks ago and who could only manage eleven points. I’m not sure that they will struggle that badly again this week, but having kept the game close against the Cowboys, I think the Buccaneers will get back to winning ways this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Cardinals @ Seahawks (-8.5)

This is a hard game for me to pick as the Cardinals have been hard to predict other than David Johnson is going to put up monster numbers, whilst the Seahawks look to be heading into the playoffs as a dangerous but wounded team. No one would fancy playing the Seahawks at home, but they are possibly not the same team right now thanks to injury and so it is hard for me to predict them to win by nine.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Bengals @ Texans (-2.5)

I am really not sure what to expect from the Bengals in the offseason, but the lack of discipline last week was both familiar and deeply frustrating. They have kept games close this season, but have failed to capitalise and this week they travel to Houston to face a Texans team who benched Osweiler on the second quarter last week and looked better for it. With Savage at the helm of the offence, and Jadeveon Clowney beginning to terrify quarterbacks this season I think the Texans might well get the win. I will be delighted to be wrong on this one, and certainly the Bengals have kept a lot of games close, but having lost to the Steelers last week and with the Texans at home I think I back the Texans to win.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Ravens @ Steelers (-5.5)

This is the big game of the week for me as the result will go a long way to settling who will win the AFC North and this is a real rivalry. The Steelers passing game hasn’t looked quite right in recent weeks, but Le’Veon Bell has been carrying the load for the Steelers’ offence whilst the defence does enough to win. The Ravens are struggling on offence, but have a defence that ranks second in the league by DVOA and first against the run. I see this has being a tough close game and so when I’m getting this many points I feel I have to pick the Ravens.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Broncos @ Chiefs (-4.5)

I am really not sure about this game as there appears to be an understandable divide in the Broncos dressing room between a defence that ranks first in the league by DVOA despite a rushing defence that is only twenty-fourth, and an offence that has misfired badly all season. The Chiefs wobbled against the Titans last week, but could have easily won that game and will be looking for revenge. They have the speed to make plays on offence, but the line worries me in this game. It took overtime and a field goal to separate them last time, and I just can’t quite bring myself to back the Chiefs to win by five.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Lions @ Cowboys (-7.5)

The Cowboys got back to winning ways last week against the Buccaneers after their blip against the Giants, but this week they welcome a Lions team who have specialised in late game heroics. I’m not sure that the Lions can win this game, but I suspect that Matthew Stafford will have an easier time indoors in Dallas with his injured finger than he had in New York the previous week, and I’m just not sure if the Cowboys are going to win by eight or more when they have only managed that twice in the last eight weeks.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Well here we are with this week’s pick, have picked a slender two pick lead last week, I hope I can keep the momentum up.

Gee:      Week 14   10-6                   Overall   97-111
Dan:      Week 14   8-8                     Overall   95-113

Browns @ Bills (-9.5)

I think you would have to have a heart of stone to not want the Browns to get a win, but they are running out of time and it is hard to see where they might get it. The Bills have struggled on defence, but have a running game that ranks first in the league by DVOA yet has been reliant on LeSean McCoy. I’m not sure that the Browns can win this game on the road, and it has been a while since they have been within ten points, but laying this many points as the Bills worries me and so in the end I am very nervously backing the Browns to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:     Bills

Packers @ Bears (+6.5)

The Bears have such a long list of injuries, but it does look like there are things that can be built upon next season. This week they welcome a Packers team coming off a big win against the Seahawks. The Packers need to win all their remaining games to have a chance at getting to the playoffs, but whilst I can’t predict if they can pull that off or not, I think they will win this one. It’s just a question of whether they can cover these points, but in a season of varying performance levels, the Packers are look like they are coming together and so I think they will.

Gee’sPick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:     Packers

Steelers @ Bengals (+3.5)

This is a grudge game, and a chance for the Bengals to act as spoilers in a season that has fallen well short of where they hoped to have been. The Steelers are still chasing the playoffs, but injury has hit their receivers and they can’t expect two hundred and ninety-eight combined yards from Le’Veon Bell every week. I expect this to be a close game, and as the one with the most meaning for the Bengals, I just fancy them to cover getting three and a half points at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:     Steelers

Lions @ Giants (-4.5)

The Giants have been playing really well on defence in a rare case of offseason free-agents working out, but they have been struggling a little on offence. The Lions have been relying on Matthew Stafford so much this season, but the big questions for them will be how his injured finger will affect his ability to throw the ball. I am sure that Lions fans will be waiting for the wheels to fall off, and that might well be the case, but a five point win just feels like too much to ask for me. Although I could be very wrong about that…

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:     Giants

Titans @ Chiefs (-5.5)

The Chiefs keep finding a way to win, and are making a serious case to be considered the best team in the AFC. This week they welcome a Titans team that have made serious steps forward from last season, but one I am finding serially hard to predict week to week. This feels like a lot of points to me, but I’m not sure the Titans, for all their progress this year, are ready for this game in Arrowhead stadium.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:     Chiefs

Colts @ Vikings (-4.5)

The Colts have been so up and down this season, and lost a key divisional game last week that likely puts them out of the playoff hunt. This week they travel to Minnesota to face a team that possibly think they are still in the playoff hunt, but who have been fighting through injuries all season. In recent weeks their defence has returned to their early season form, yet the big question is whether their offence can do enough to win. This makes the Vikings needing to win by five just that bit too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:     Vikings

Eagles @ Ravens (-6.5)

The Ravens’ loss to the Patriots looks closer by the score than it actually was as it took successive punt miscues for the Ravens to get the chance to score. The Eagles however, are on a four week losing streak having had their season slip away from the early promise it showed. However, they did keep the game close when they hosted Washington last week, but they are on the road in Baltimore against a much tougher defence in this game, and so I seem them struggling to move the ball. The offence of the Ravens does make me worry, and in the end I’m not confident enough that they will cover this line to pick the Ravens, even if I think they will win.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:     Ravens

Jaguars @ Texans (-6.5)

I face a similar dilemma in this game as I expect the Texans who have a good defence and a struggling offence to win at home, but the Jaguars are a much worse team than the Eagles, or at least are in terms of performance. More worrying, the last game that the Jaguars kept closer than seven was against the Texans back in week ten, so I’m really not sure what to do in this game. I am tempted by the points, but in the end with the Jaguars having little to play for and the Texans in a fight for the division, I am backing the Texans to cover this line, although I don’t feel great about it.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:     Texans

49ers @ Falcons (-13.5)

The Falcons’ number one offence by DVOA host the 49ers thirtieth ranked defence, and even without an injured Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu the Falcons racked up a big win against the Rams last week. They were given some points by the Rams offence, but it is hard to see the 49ers doing much better in this one, and so I’m going to take the unusual step of laying the 13.5 as the Falcons are at home. It does make me a little nervous, but if you look through the year, of the twelve games the 49ers have lost, half of them have been by over fourteen points so it is not so odd they might do it again on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:     49ers

Saints @ Cardinals (-2.5)

The Saints offence seems to have struggled over the last couple of weeks and this week they travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals. I’m not sure what is likely to happen in this game as the Cardinals have struggled all year, whilst the Saints have been up and down. By DVOA the Saints are a better team, but having narrowly lost to the Dolphins in the pouring rain last week and beaten Washington the week before, I’m going to back the Cardinals at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:     Cardinals

Patriots @ Broncos (+3.5)

This is an interesting line to me as the Patriots looked like you might be able to get at them even before they lost Rob Gronkowski for the year. However, Tom Bray has been managing without his favourite target thanks to the Patriots famed flexibility of game-plan and a much improved offensive line. However, Brady’s record is not that great in Denver and the Broncos’ pass defence has looked as strong as ever. The problem is that the Broncos offence has not been playing well and you can run the ball against them. I am strongly tempted by the Broncos getting points at home, but can’t discount how the Patriots keep finding a way this season and the problems the Broncos are having on offence. This could be a horrible mistake.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:     Patriots

Raiders @ Chargers (+2.5)

Teams that get points at home who are not terrible are often tempting to pick, but with yet more injuries hampering the Chargers I can’t see them beating a Raiders team who will be desperate to get back on track after losing to the Chiefs last week. With the advantage of the extra days of rest I think the Raiders will do just that as they are a much better team.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:     Raiders

Buccaneers @ Cowboys (-7.5)

This should one of the games of the week, with a surging Buccaneers team travelling to Dallas to face a Cowboys team who just lost to the Giants again. There is already talk that Dak Prescott should sit for Tony Romo, which seems somewhat premature although he will need to bounce back as his performance has dipped in recent weeks. However, the Buccaneers defence has rounded into form and I expect a closer game than this line suggests. I’m not sure if the Buccaneers can win, but I expect them to keep the game closer than eight.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:     Buccaneers

Panthers @ Washington (-4.5)

Washington really needs this game, but whilst their offence continues to roll, their defence has struggled and they have not been convincing. The Panthers have been playing tough in recent weeks, and five of their eight losses have been by three points or less and so I think they could keep this one close. For whatever reason, I can’t bring myself to pick Washington to cover this line so I will take the points.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:     Washington