Time for me to get back on the horse and see if I can get; myself back into contention in the picks competition, but first there’s the minor matter of trivia competition.

‘Bronco’s Peyton Manning along with Brett Favre are the only 2 QB’s to have achieved what?’

So this is a trickier question, but I think the answer is that they are the only two quarterbacks to get to the Conference Championship game with two different franchises, with Farve doing it with the Packers and Vikings, whilst Manning managed it with the Colts and Broncos.

It is my week to be flummoxed but the trivia theme, I’m sure I’m going to kick myself when we finally find out what it is. As for Dan:

‘Absolutely wracking my brain trying to work out the link between Peyton Manning and Brett Favre – I really feel like I should know this but nothing is coming to mind at all. I’m going to say “they’re both players who I wish I’d seen live” and that way there’s no way I can be wrong!

On the theme, the only thing I have noticed is that the questions are all about different teams running alphabetically – i.e. with this week’s being Denver, I’m sure next week’s question will be about the Detroit Lions, and the following week will be the Green Bay Packers… etc. Let’s go with that!’

Falcons @ Saints (-12.5)

It looks like the Atlanta Falcons will be getting Matt Ryan back from his ankle sprain but even with them being rested coming off a bye it is hard to trust this 1-7 squad, particularly with the defence being ranked thirtieth by DVOA. Given the Saints are coming off their own bye and have been beating teams for fun I’m going to take the Saints.

Gee’s Pick:        Saints
Dan’s Pick:        Saints

Bills @ Browns (-2.5)

The Cleveland Browns inspire no trust at the moment and so whilst I have been hesitant in the past about the Buffalo Bills’ offence, when I’m getting points I’m going to back the team I think is definitely better. On any given Sunday anything can happen, but I feel comfortable this is the more likely result.

Gee’s Pick:        Bills
Dan’s Pick:        Bills

Lions @ Bears (-2.5)

The Chicago Bears are really struggling, and I have learned my lesson from last week. The Bears probably can’t help but gain more yards this week, but with the quarterback situation being what it is I have to go with the Detroit Lions, even if they are struggling to win, they have always been competitive.

Gee’s Pick:        Lions
Dan’s Pick:        Lions

Ravens @ Bengals (+9.5)

I’m hoping that the Cincinnati Bengals’ offence shows something this week with Ryan Finley getting his first NFL regular season start, but I have no faith in the defence being able to contain the Ravens’ running game. There has been some talk of a let down game for the Ravens having beaten the Patriots last week, but in this division matchup I fear that things won’t get much better for the Bengals.

Gee’s Pick:        Ravens
Dan’s Pick:        Ravens

Chiefs @ Titans (+3.5)

It looks like the Kansas City Chiefs could get Patrick Mahomes back this week, but I trust Andy Reid to keep the Chiefs competitive whoever lines up under centre. I can’t quite say the same for the Tennessee Titans, who look to have a more functional offence with Ryan Tannehill starting at quarterback but I’m not sure they have enough to win this game. I have seen the line as high as six points to the Titans so I’m going make a value play on the better team and hope.

Gee’s Pick:        Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:        Chiefs

Giants @ Jets (+2.5)

It is a strange world where the New York Giants are giving points on the road against anyone, except this the home stadium for both teams and the New York Jets are currently imploding. I don’t really want to pick at all in this game, but I am reluctantly going to back the Giants as they only need a field goal to cover this and the Jets lost to the Dolphins last week.

Gee’s Pick:        Giants
Dan’s Pick:        Giants

Cardinals @ Buccaneers (-4.5)

This is a sneaky intriguing game as the Arizone Cardinals have been relatively competitive in Kliff Kingsbury’s first NFL season, and it looks as if the pairing of him and quarterback Kyler Murray have a future, but the roster still needs a lot of work. The Buccaneers have played well in stretches, but Jameis Winston just cannot seem to stop himself from giving the ball away in clusters. This line feels a little high considering that the Bucs are 2-6 so I’m going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:        Buccaneers

Dolphins @ Colts (-10.5)

Nevermind the Miami Dolphins getting a win last week, they have been competitive for a few weeks now and with the Indianapolis Colts missing Jacoby Brissett due to an MCL sprain and continuing to have kicking problems I am going to grab the points. I’m not saying the Colts can’t win or beat this line, the Dolphins are after all resetting their roster, but this is too many points for me to be laying with the Colts.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Dolphins

Panthers @ Packers (-5.5)

The good news for the Carolina Panthers is that Kyle Allen bounced back from his awful performance against the 49ers and they got the win last week. The good news for the Packers is that they are back in Green Bay and they have a chance to get back to winning ways after an awful performance in LA against the Chargers last week. I still think the Packers are going to make trouble in the playoffs, and I can see them winning this game but I think this is too many points to be laying against the Panthers.

Gee’s Pick:        Panthers
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Rams @ Steelers (+3.5)

I do not trust the LA Rams, who are having a difficult season that largely look to be down to problems on the offensive line and although they have stabilised over recent week, they have a tough schedule coming up. This week they travel to face a Pittsburgh Steelers team who have got themselves back to 4-4 having lost their opening three games and four of their first five. I’m not sure how much I trust the Steelers given their injuries on offence but getting this many points at home feels like a good spot to me, even if the Rams are coming off a bye.

Gee’s Pick:        Steelers
Dan’s Pick:        Steelers

Vikings @ Cowboys (-2.5)

The Minnesota Vikings could have won last week, and certainly should have covered if it were not for a missed extra performance, but the play of Kirk Cousins concerns me as he threw wayward passes for a lot of that game and once again will be missing Adam Thielen after he reaggravated his hamstring injury. The Dalla Cowboys have seemingly struggled to put everything together at the same time, and their defence doesn’t seem to be living up to expectations but they are fourth in the league by DVOA for a reason and I like them in this spot.

Gee’s Pick:        Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:        Cowboys

Seahawks @ 49ers (-6.5)

This is definitely the game of the week for me, as the unbeaten San Francisco 49ers welcome a Seattle Seahawks team who are only one win behind them in the division. The Seahawks have managed this mostly on the back of excellent play from Russell Wilson who has been excelling in making things happen in the passing game, in fact he’s been doing so well that they lead the league in passing offence DVOA. The weakness however is the uncharacteristically poor Seattle defence who are currently twenty-seventh by DVOA. The 49ers sit atop the over DVOA rankings, have the second best defence according to DVOA, and Jimmy Garoppolo had a great game last week. I think this game should be really competitive and I think this line is too high. I could be proven spectacularly wrong as either team could win big, but I’m going to back the Seahawks to keep this contest within a touchdown.

Gee’s Pick:        Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

I’m running a little late today so I need to rush through the picks and trivia a bit. Firstly we were asked:

‘Which Dallas quarterback was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2006?’

Now, I think this one is relatively straight forward as I believe it is quarterback turned commentator Troy Aikman.

As for theme, I’m having a thought from something that Dan’s Dad mentioned in his weekly write up that posted on Thursday – so I’m going to go with all time records. I haven’t got time to go through every week’s answers but the Bears have the all time number of wins for a franchise, the Dolphins are the only team to go undefeated and win a Super Bowl, Jim Kelly has the most Super Bowl losses as quarterback and so on…

‘Ah, the first one in a few weeks which I have some degree of comfort in! I believe the QB inducted back then was Troy Aikman. That’s my guess anyway.

And still nothing on the theme!’

Texans @ Jaguars (+2.5)

Our final London game of this season sees the Jacksonville Jaguars hosting the Houston Texans at Wembley and given the Jags’s experience at playing in London and the Texans coming off a week where they lost JJ Watt I’m going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:        Texans

Washington @ Bills (-9.5)

I don’t like this line as whilst I like the Bills, I don’t trust their offence whilst Washington have managed to cover the last two weeks, but one of them was only thanks to the weather. Still, Washington have some extra rest coming into this game and so I’m nervously going to back Washington to cover the big line.

Gee’s Pick:        Washington
Dan’s Pick:        Bills

Bears @ Eagles (-4.5)

What do I do with the Chicago Bears getting these many points against a Philadelphia Eagles team who played better and got the win last week? The answer as they are fairly close by DVOA is grab the points and hope.

Gee’s Pick:        Bears
Dan’s Pick:        Eagles

Titans @ Panthers (-3.5)

I was not expecting the Carolina Panthers to give up fifty-one points to the 49ers last week, so they will be looking to get back on track against a Tennessee Titans team who are on their own two game winning streak having switched to starting Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. I can see this being a competitive game but I’m leaning towards the Panthers getting things back on track.

Gee’s Pick:        Panthers
Dan’s Pick:        Panthers

Colts @ Steelers (+1.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers have won two games and three out of the last four, but two of the teams they beat don’t have a win yet this season and the Chargers are riven by injury. Meanwhile, despite their franchise quarterback retiring in the off-season the Indianapolis Colts are 5-2 and I’m so impressed with the job Frank Reich and his staff have done that I’m backing them in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Colts
Dan’s Pick:        Colts

Vikings @ Chiefs (-2.5)

This is a straightforward pick for me as the consensus seems line for this looks to be Minnesota Vikings (-4) so to get two and half points is a bargain. With the Kansas City Chiefs unlikely to start Patrick Mahomes a couple of weeks after dislocating his knee and having activated Chad Henne I’m going to grab the points for the team who I think is playing much better right now.

Gee’s Pick:        Vikings
Dan’s Pick:        Chiefs

Jets @ Dolphins (+5.5)

Given the disfunction surrounding the New York Jets and how the Miami Dolphins have covered for two weeks in a row with Ryan Fitzpatrick back as the quarterback I’m going to say that the Dolphins lose close or maybe even fall into a win in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Dolphins

Lions @ Raiders (-2.5)

This is a tricky one for me as the Oakland Raiders have been competitive despite being on the road for five weeks even if they did have a bye after their London game, but they welcome a Detroit Lions who have also been competitive and neither team exactly inspires confidence. There’s only 3.9% between them in DVOA and as the better team are getting points I’m going to grab the Lions but I don’t feel great about it.

Gee’s Pick:        Lions
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Buccaneers @ Seahawks (-6.5)

This is an awkward line for me as the Seahawks, famed for their home advantage with the twelves in Seattle have already lost two games at home and only just beat the lowly Bengals. However, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are incredibly inconsistent thanks to Jameis Winston’s propensity to give the ball away. There’s a couple of factors that tell me that this line is to high so I am going to pick the Bucs based on that, but it would not surprise me if the Seahawks make this pick look foolish.

Gee’s Pick:        Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

Browns @ Broncos (+2.5)

I so want to say away from this game, that sees the Denver Broncos starting rookie quarterback Brandon Allen go against a dysfunctional Cleveland Browns team who are not handling adversity well. If I had Joe Flacco I might well pick the Broncos but in this one I’m going to hold my nose and pick the Browns.

Gee’s Pick:        Browns
Dan’s Pick:        Browns

Packers @ Chargers (+3.5)

The LA Chargers have no home field advantage at the best of times, but the Green Bay Packers are one of the best travelling fan groups already and are playing so much better that I’m going to back the Packers to cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Packers
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Patriots @ Ravens (+3.5)

This should be one of the most interesting matchups of the week, and the Baltimore Ravens have always given the New England Patriots problems. The Patriots have been covering lines for fun all season and so despite the fact I’m seeing this as a good number for the Ravens, I’m still going to pick the Patriots. I can’t wait to see how Bill Belichick tries to keep Lamar Jackson quiet.

Gee’s Pick:        Patriots
Dan’s Pick:        Patriots

Cowboys @ Giants (+7.5)

When the Dallas Cowboys have won this season they have won big, but they also have a loss against the New York Jets, although that was at the height of their injury problems. The New York Giants got a boost when they put rookie quarterback Daniel Jones into the starting lineup, but that only lasted two games and they have now lost four straight. The Cowboys are coming off their bye week, but the Giants won’t want to be embarrassed in front of the nation on Monday night football. I want nothing to do with this line, but I’m seeing this line as an extra point to the Giants and so I’m reluctantly going to grab them.

Gee’s Pick:        Giants
Dan’s Pick:        Cowboys

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

So it’s the day of my trip to Wembley, but I just have time (I hope) to get up my picks for week eight and have a stab at the trivia question.

‘What is Browns’ coach Paul Brown credited with inventing?’

Now, as a Bengals fan, who were the second NFL team founded by Paul Brown, I’m aware of a few innovations that Paul Brown was responsible for including team building with being the first coach to use timed forty yard dashes, the first communication to a player’s helmets, but I think what 3D is after with an in invention with the Browns is the creation of the draw play.

As for the theme, we’re still floating round early NFL, but I’ve already tried TWF teams, pre-merger, and the centenary year – I’m blanking on a new one and I am sure I’m going to kick myself when one of us eventually get it right or we get put out of our misery. It might well be the latter at our current rate.

‘I’m thrown by the word ‘Invented’ in this question, and the fact that he’s specifically said that it’s a question about the Browns. My first instinct is to say ‘the Cincinnati Bengals’ as I think he founded them but again, the word ‘invent’ doesn’t really apply. But that’s pretty much all I know about the fella so it’s going to be a guess… Did he invent shoulder pads or something like that? I’ll go with that.

Only possible idea at the minute for theme is first round draft picks, so I’ll go for that too.’

Seahawks @ Falcons (+4.5)

The Seattle Seahawks will be looking to bounce back from last week’s loss to the Ravens and this is the perfect spot to do it as the Falcons were struggling before Matt Ryan got injured and so with Ryan sitting out this game and the Falcons having the league’s twenty-ninth ranked defence by DVOA – I am going to pick the Seahawks in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

Eagles @ Bills (-1.5)

I am a little confused by this line as the Philadelphia Eagles lost badly last week to the Cowboys, are on the road in Buffalo to face a Bills team who have only lost one game so far this season. Now to be fair, the Eagles do actually rate as the better team by DVOA even after their loss to the Cowboys dropped them from eighth to fifteenth, whilst the Bills rank twenty-first, but I fancy the Bills to edge this one out given the Eagles injuries.

Gee’s Pick:        Bills
Dan’s Pick:        Bills

Chargers @ Bears (-4.5)

This is a tough game to call because the Chargers are really struggling with injuries and had to find whole new ways to lose a close game to the Titans last week. They take on a Bears’ team who are struggling due to the apparent failure of Mitch Trubisky to develop, although they are 3-3 so it’s not a disaster. The Bears are only 6.4% better by DVOA and I’m not sure they should be giving away this many points so I’m going to grab them, but I don’t exactly feel great about it.

Gee’s Pick:        Chargers
Dan’s Pick:        Bears

Bengals @ Rams (-12.5)

So I will be at this game, which is still an exciting thing to say even if the Bengals have been anything but competitive this season. They face an LA Rams team who are struggling but not out of the playoff race at 4-3 and are coming off a twenty-seven point win against the struggling Falcons. The Bengals may be 0-7, but only two of their losses have been by thirteen points or more, so whilst my concern is that Zac Taylor runs the same scheme as the Rams and was on their staff last year plus defensive coordinator Wade Philips is a better coach than anyone on the Bengals staff, I’m going to pick the Bengals to keep it within thirteen. I really hope it is more competitive than that!

Gee’s Pick:        Bengals
Dan’s Pick:        Rams

Broncos @ Colts (-6.5)

I am not sure if I underestimated the Colts as a whole or merely overestimated how injured they were and how good the Texans are, but the Colts got the win to stay atop the AFC South last week. The Texans host a rested Denver Broncos team who having looked like they were pulling things together for a couple of weeks got thumped last Thursday by a Patrick Mahomes-less Chiefs. This is a big line though, and only one of the Colts’ wins has been by seven points or more. I’m hesitant to do it, and the lines suggest I should go for the Broncos but after last week’s performances I can’t bring myself to do it.

Gee’s Pick:        Colts
Dan’s Pick:        Broncos

Giants @ Lions (-6.5)

Oh, how I hate this line! I am perfectly comfortable saying the Lions are a better team than the Giants, but they have now lost three games straight and so are not exactly trustworthy. That said the Giants are on their own three game losing streak after the two game bump that starting Daniel Jones created and the Giants lost to the Cardinals last week. This feels like too many points and I want to run away from this game, but as I have to make a pick I’m going to hold my nose and grab the team whose quarterback was the fastest to forty thousand yards and who are 14.5% better by DVOA.

Gee’s Pick:        Lions
Dan’s Pick:        Lions

Buccaneers @ Titans (-2.5)

This is another game that I really don’t know what to do with as the Tennessee Titans got themselves a win against the Chargers last week and looked a bit better with Ryan Tannehill running their offence. However, I don’t have strong feeling for them and they welcome a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team who are coming off a bye week following their awful performance in London. That said, given the number of times that Jameis Winston gave the ball way, an eleven point loss to the Panthers was not that bad. I really want to stay away from this game as well, but in this one I’m going to grab the Titans at home and hope that the 15.2% difference the other way by DVOA doesn’t make me look stupid,

Gee’s Pick:        Titans
Dan’s Pick:        Titans

Cardinals @ Saints (-9.5)

This is a big line, but the New Orleans Saints continue to play well with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback and have a top ten defence by DVOA. The welcome an Arizona Cardinals team who have actually won their last three games but the Saints are a very different proposition to the Bengals, Falcons or Giants and given that I have seen this line as high as -12.5 I think -9.5 is good value.

Gee’s Pick:        Saints
Dan’s Pick:        Saints

Jets @ Jaguars (-5.5)

The New York Jets got embarrassed on Monday night, their offence getting shut out in a 33-0 loss to the Patriots. This week they travel to face a Jacksonville Jaguars who got back on track last week thanks to facing the Bengals, but I’m not sure how good they actually are. That said, I do think they are better than the Jets who have only been competitive in two games this season and so I’m going to reluctantly back the Jaguars.

Gee’s Pick:        Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:        Jaguars

Panthers @ 49ers (-5.5)

This is one of the matchups of the week in my eyes as it sees the unbeaten San Francisco 49ers host the 4-2 Panthers who haven’t looked back since they sat Cam Newton to get him healthy. However, it’s not the play of backup quarterback Kyle Allen that is driving this record but the Panthers defence and Christian McCaffery’s astonishing offensive production. As good as the 49ers have been, and they added Emmanuel Sanders by trade this week, I think this line is too high in what I think will be a very competitive game so I’m grabbing the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Panthers
Dan’s Pick:        49ers

Browns @ Patriots (-12.5)

What do I do with the Cleveland Browns? They have the potential to cover this line and are coming off a bye but only their win against the Ravens looks like a quality result and there are a whopping sixty-nine point one percentage points between them and the Patriots by DVOA. The Patriots have been great against the spread this year despite it frequently being this high. I hate to do it, but I’m going to back the unbeaten Patriots who have only failed to win by thirteen points or more once this season.

Gee’s Pick:        Patriots
Dan’s Pick:        Patriots

Raiders @ Texans (-6.5)

This is tricky game to pick as the Oakland Raiders have been competitive for a lot of the year and won as many games as they have lost. This week they travel to face the Houston Texans, who looked to have found something but lost receiver Will Fuller last week to a hamstring injury and he was doing a great job of balancing the Texans’ passing attack. I do think the Texans are the better team but there’s not that much difference between them by DVOA so I think this line is a little high. I’m going to grab the points and hope…

Gee’s Pick:        Raiders
Dan’s Pick:        Raiders

Packers @ Chiefs (+4.5)

This is a really tricky game to pick as the Kansas City Chiefs are obviously going to miss Patrick Mahomes, but their defence played much better than it had all season last week and they are coming off extra rest having won their Thursday night game against the Broncos. They welcome a Green Bay Packers team who have only lost once this season and last week put up an offensive performance to match the defence that has been playing well all season. Given the problems the Broncos have had this season I’m not ready to say the Chiefs’ defence is fixed, and although this could be recency bias as I have watched the coaching tape of the Packers offence from last week – I’m going with the Packers in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Packers
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Dolphins @ Steelers (-14.5)

At the start of the season the Miami Dolphins were losing badly enough that teams were covering some ridiculous spreads against them, but having put Ryan Fitzopatrick back in the game against Washington the previous week, the Dolphins started him against the Bills last week and so covered the spread for a second week in a row. The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a bye and so look likely to get Mason Rudolph back from his concussion this week, but let’s be honest, the Steelers have not looked good this season. Their wins have come against the Bengals and Chargers and only against the Bengals have they managed to win by a margin to cover a line this big so whilst I expect the Dolphins to continue their spotless tanking record – this line is too much for me given the Steelers’ play this season.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Dolphins

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

A poor week from me saw Dan and his dad close the gap to me, but I still have an overall winning percentage as we go in to week eight.

Gee:	Week 7:   6-8	Overall:   56-50
Dan’s Dad:	Week 7:   10-4	Overall:   53-53
Dan:	Week 7:   9-5	Overall:   53-53

Washington @ Vikings (-15.5)

This doesn’t look like a competitive Thursday night game, but we have had surprises before. However, Washington are 1-6 for a reason and won’t have the weather helping them this week as they travel to the dome of the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings are one of the few NFL teams who still seem to have a home advantage and are playing well at the moment, so I expect them to win, but this is a very big line.

Now, at the risk of making things overly complicated, I am seeing this line as high as -16.5 so this is a comparatively good number, although it is still over two touchdowns. My first instinct is this line is too big, but my first instinct has sucked on a Thursday so I’m going all in on the Vikings in Kirk Cousins’s revenge game. I just hope that 3D forgives me.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Week 8 Trivia

‘It’s Week 7 and the season for me has not yet arrived at a pattern with unpredictability being the only constant in this Curate’s Egg of a year. Normally we would have a gut feel about where the season is heading by now, but I don’t think that is yet clear.

In fairness there are a couple of teams showing great consistency but for all the wrong reasons so I will not intrude on anyone’s feelings. For me the rise of the Vikings, quietly staying in contention is a very competitive division makes for very pleasing reading. However, the season’s inconsistency shows we should take nothing for granted until it is certain – the biggest danger for any team is its next fixture. Don’t forget that just a few weeks ago there was an anger and desperation in Vikings hearts but that has now evaporated, for now. Let’s hope that Kwik-Fit can keep the wheels on.

So, have the wheels come off in the Trivia competition?

I asked who it was that Carson Palmer achieved his first win. Once again Gee’s logic was good, but his luck wasn’t by guessing The Browns. Dan also went Browns and again I could see why. The answer, I’ve been looking out questions where they both have a chance, was The Dolphins and that leaves both tied on 6 points as once again the Theme has remained elusive.

This week I have what should be an easy 2 points each with this question on the Cleveland Browns.

What is Browns coach Paul Brown credited with inventing?

Its over to you’

I’m back to my usual form with picking Thursday night, and I shall have to see if I can work out a way to fade my own selections next week, but without further ado let’s get to the week seven trivia question and hopefully better selections for the rest of the games.

‘Which team did Cincinnati Bengal quarterback Carson Palmer get his first win against?’

This is a proper I’m going to look stupid question as Palmer’s first game came a year after he was drafted as this was a time when quarterbacks still routinely sat for their first year, but it was also something like fifteen years ago so there wasn’t the back loading of the season with division games – I’m going to stick in the AFC North, although it could be any one and say the Cleveland Browns. Knowing my luck it will be the Dolphins.

For the theme I’m going for The Wrong Football, as the teams involved all seem to be related to the teams we support or have seen play.

‘I think I’m going to just have to go down the logical route on this one seeing as Carson Palmer will have played the Ravens, Browns and Steelers twice per year, so it’s more likely to be one of those than anyone else. I think I’ll go with the Cleveland Browns.

Still no clue on the theme but now after that clue I feel a bit silly for deleting the old emails with the questions on!’

Rams @ Falcons (+3.5)

I’m really not sure about this one as the Falcons have been plain bad for a number of weeks, particularly on defence whilst the Rams have also been struggling. I’m leaning towards the Rams for the win despite the problems they have been having, but the number does give me pause. In the end I’m going to plump for the Rams but I really don’t feel good about it.

Gee’s Pick:        Rams
Dan’s Pick:        Rams

Dolphins @ Bills (-16.5)

I have seen this line as high as seventeen and I think the Bills are a genuinely good team, but I think this line is too high given the Dolphins are starting Fitzpatrick and the Bills’ highest win so far this season is fourteen. I could be wrong, but I’m not sure the Bills’ offence is going to generate the points necessary to cover this line, even if I expect them to win.

Gee’s Pick:        Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:        Dolphins

Jaguars @ Bengals (+3.5)

The Jaguars may be on a losing streak of two games, but they are still a much better side by DVOA and it’s so hard to trust the Bengals at the moment. I perhaps should be grabbing the points but I’m not sure the Bengals will keep this one within a field goal. I would love to be proved wrong.

Gee’s Pick:        Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:        Jaguars

Vikings @ Lions (-1.5)

I’m seeing very different lines than this one, and my concern is that the Lions have been competitive for pretty much all year, whilst the Vikings have been a bit up and down, but given how the Vikings have played in the last couple of weeks and they’re still getting points I’m going to pick them.

Gee’s Pick:        Vikings
Dan’s Pick:        Vikings

Raiders @ Packers (-6.5)

The Green Bay Packers are 5-1 despite the new offence not quite clicking thanks to a defence that ranks top ten by DVOA and the fact that quietly the offence is also top ten. That said, the Raiders have been competitive all year and have a winning record and whilst I’m not saying they will go into Lambeau Field and win, I do fancy them to keep the game within seven.

Gee’s Pick:        Raiders
Dan’s Pick:        Packers

Texans @ Colts (-1.5)

The Texans have won two games in a row whilst not giving up a sack and receiver Will Fuller actually has more receiving yards than DeAndre Hopkins, which has given the offence some more balance than they’ve had in recent years. They travel to face a Colts team who just beat the Chiefs and so this should be a cracking divisional game, although there is a ten place difference between the Colts and the Texans by overall DVOA and so with them getting points on the road I’m grabbing the Texans.

Gee’s Pick:        Texans
Dan’s Pick:        Texans

Cardinals @ Giants (-2.5)

Don’t look now, but the Cardinals have won two games in a row and are travelling to face a Giants team who have come back to Earth a little after Daniels Jones’s first two games yielded wins, having faced the Vikings and the Patriots the last two weeks. There is not much between the Cardinals and Giants in terms of DVOA and so I’m finding this a difficult game to pick, particularly has home field advantage seems not to be as strong these days. In the end I’m going to fall on the home team given how young the Cardinals are and I just can’t see them winning three games in a row. Well, until tonight that is…

Gee’s Pick:        Giants
Dan’s Pick:        Giants

49ers @ Washington (+9.5)

Washington got their first win of the season last week as interim head coach Bill Callahan took over the team and focused on running the ball, but it is one thing to beat the Dolphins when they are in full tank mode and another when facing an unbeaten 49ers team. This is a lot of points for a home underdog, but this is also the second ranked team by DVOA facing the thirtieth and given Washington’s lack of home field advantage I’m backing the 49ers to cover.

Gee’s Pick:        49ers
Dan’s Pick:        49ers

Chargers @ Titans (-2.5)

This is one of the trickier games for me to pick as the LA Chargers have been massively hit by injuries, but the Tennessee Titans have just sat their supposed franchise quarterback having fallen to 2-4 and been held scoreless last week by the Broncos. It has been confirmed that Ryan Tannehill will get the start this week, but given the form of both teams I’m finding it really hard to come down on a side for this game. If left to my own devices I would likely just stay away but given I have to make a pick I am going to grab the points and hope that the experience of Philip Rivers wins out.

Gee’s Pick:        Chargers
Dan’s Pick:        Titans

Saints @ Bears (-3.5)

As impressive as the Chicago Bears’ defence is, and they are coming off a bye week, I don’t like this line for them as the offence has not clicked at all and the New Orleans Saints’ defence has been playing well, whilst Teddy Bridgewater has been doing enough to win. I’m not saying the Bears can’t win this game, but I like the Saints to keep this one to within a field goal.

Gee’s Pick:        Saints
Dan’s Pick:        Saints

Ravens @ Seahawks (-3.5)

The Baltimore Ravens looked good against the Bengals last week, but playing a defence whose weaknesses are right at the perfect place for Lamar Jackson to exploit and the Bengals sputtering offence might have masked some of the concerns they’d shown in the previous couple of week. In week seven they travel to Seattle to face a Seahawks team who are 5-1 for a reason, and mostly that is the efficiency of Russell Wilson. The line gives me a slight pause, but Seattle have a genuine home-field advantage and I think they are the better team – this should be a cracking game and I could well look foolish by the end of it but I’m taking the Seahawks in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:        Seahawks

Eagles @ Cowboys (-2.5)

I really don’t like this line at all as neither team are healthy or give me a huge amount of confidence with both of them having lost last week. Whilst the Eagles’ secondary got exposed by the Vikings who have one of the better receiving duos in the league, the Cowboys have struggled to move the ball through the air on offence, have injuries at receiver, and have in fact lost three straight. It’s not much to go on but I’m going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:        Eagles
Dan’s Pick:        Cowboys

Patriots @ Jets (+9.5)

The New York Jets were another team who got their first win last week as the return of Sam Darnold made a huge difference. This week they welcome a Patriots team who continue to beat big lines despite the offence not quite clicking thanks to a league leading by DVOA defence and having played Thursday night will be well rested for this one. It was one thing for the Jets to beat a beat up Cowboys team whose form is going in the wrong direction, but the Patriots are a much tougher proposition and I’m going to back the Pats to continue their impressive run in this one.

Gee’s Pick:        Patriots
Dan’s Pick:        Patriots

 

DVOA is Football Outsiders statistic for measure a team’s success on every play versus the league average and you can read more about it and other football topics at https://footballoutsiders.com.

Apart from work eating my time, I’ve also had a somewhat terrifying memory stick failure so whilst I have rescued over 30 000 words of a novel and pretty much all of my files – I am massively behind so I’m putting up our picks and trivia and will have to try to find time to get back on an even keel during the upcoming week.

‘I’m looking at Chicago who, you will recall have retired the most jerseys (14) but what number did Walter Peyton wear so proudly for the Bears. 2 points available here.’

For once I’m feeling confident about the basic part of the trivia competition because I can see in my mind Peyton running the ball wearing number 34 – although it would be a bit embarrassing if I’m misremembering. I’m still lost on the theme though as I can’t make anything fit.

‘Well, I know the answer to this week’s question is 34 – I remember seeing hundreds of people wearing his Jersey when we went to see the Vikings get heated by the Bears in Chicago almost exactly 10 years ago (sorry Dad!).

But I’m still none the wiser when it comes to the theme. My guess this week is “Things which have nothing to do with each other whatsoever”.’

Panthers @ Buccaneers (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Panthers
Dan’s Pick:       Panthers

Bengals @ Ravens (-11.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Bengals
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

Seahawks @ Browns (+1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Seahawks

Texans @ Chiefs (-5.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Texans
Dan’s Pick:       Chiefs

Washington @ Dolphins (+3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Dolphins

Eagles @ Vikings (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Vikings
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings

Saints @ Jaguars (-1.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Saints
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

Falcons @ Cardinals (+2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:       Falcons

49ers @ Rams (-3.5)

Gee’s Pick:       49ers
Dan’s Pick:       Rams

Cowboys @ Jets (+8.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

Titans @ Broncos (-2.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Titans
Dan’s Pick:       Broncos

Steelers @ Chargers (-6.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

Lions @ Packers (-4.5)

Gee’s Pick:       Lions
Dan’s Pick:       Packers