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Thanksgiving Picks 2015

26 Thursday Nov 2015

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It’s been another one of those weeks, but expect a bumper Thanksgiving round up tomorrow and here are our picks tonight as Dan attempts to claw back some of the ground he gave up last week.

Gee:    Week 11   8-6             Overall   83-77
Dan:    Week 11   6–8           Overall   78-82

Eagles @ Lions (+0.5)

The Eagles season continues its helter-skelter journey with the defence taking a turn at having significant problem s as they were soundly beaten by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45-17 at home. Now they go on the road in a short week to Detroit to face a team that seems to have found something. The Lions have two straight wins off the back of improved defensive performances, and I think they may well prevail against the Eagles and their backup quarterback.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:     Lions

Panthers @ Cowboys (+0.5)

The Cowboys got a win off the return of Tony Romo, but I am not convinced that they are going to make the late playoff push that their fans seem to expect. That said, somehow they are only two games back off the lead of the NFC East, and will be desperate to win this game, but I don’t think they have enough options on offence to overcome the excellent Panthers defence. I don’t think the Panthers will go undefeated, and it’s possible this could be the game to break the streak, but I don’t think so.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:     Panthers

Bears @ Packers (-9.5)

This is a lot of points, even if the Packers did find themselves again last week. However, whilst I was initially tempted by the Bears, they have a lot of injuries to their skill players and given that the Packers just beat the Vikings by seventeen points in Minnesota, I think they will cover this at home in Green Bay. Particularly on the day when they are honouring their legendary quarterback Brett Farve

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:     Bears

 

Week 11 Picks

22 Sunday Nov 2015

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It’s one of those weekends where time and location are against me, so I will go over the Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars game and the problem with the Packers receivers getting open on next week’s pod. For now I’ve just got time to go through the rest of our picks for this week.

Colts @ Falcons (-6.5)

Both of these teams are coming off a bye, but whilst the Colts have been up and down all season, I think having a definitively healthy quarterback might help them, and whilst they may not win this game, given the recent form of the Falcons I am not comfortable picking them to win by a clear seven points.

Gee’s Pick:    Colts
Dan’s Pick:    Colts

Broncos @ Bears (-1.5)

The Broncos travel to Chicago with a new starting quarterback, and given how bad Peyton Manning has been this season, it’s just possible that things might work a little better on offence, or at least more like how Gary Kubiak wants to runs it. The Bears have been playing well over recent weeks, but the Broncos will be desperate to get their season back on track and if I am getting points for a seven and two team then I’m going to take them.

Gee’s Pick:    Broncos
Dan’s Pick:    Bears

Cowboys @ Dolphins (+0.5)

This is a straight up who wins pick, which really doesn’t help when picking a game involving a Cowboys team that have lost seven straight games who may be getting Tony Romo back against a Dolphins team who have been up and down, plus slightly lucky to pick up a win against the Eagles last week. I’m basically picking the home team, as I really don’t know who is going to win this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:    Dolphins

Raiders @ Lions (+1.5)

The Lions got there win last week, but were a bit lucky and I’m not sure they really have enough defence to cope with the Raiders. However, the defence of the Raiders has been a real problem over the last couple of weeks and with them travelling across to Detroit from Oakland I’m going to back the home team getting points, and will feel nervous about it.

Gee’s Pick:    Lions
Dan’s Pick:    Ravens

Rams @ Ravens (-1.5)

The Rams have sat Nick Foles who has not been playing well this season, and has repeatedly missed the designed deep throws off play action that the Rams offence is predicated on. Whether the move to Case Keenum gives them enough to exploit the Raven’s problems in the secondary I don’t know, but the Rams are a slightly better team and as I’m getting points as well then I’ll back them to win in Baltimore.

Gee’s Pick:    Rams
Dan’s Pick:    Rams

Jets @ Texans (+2.5)

I thought the Texans defence played really well last week, but I don’t know if that effort is sustainable and they continue to have real problems on offence, including a backup quarterback starting for them this week. The Jets may have struggled in recent weeks, but I think they will have too much for the Texans in this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Jets
Dan’s Pick:    Jets

Buccaneers @ Eagles (-5.5)

The Eagles have been up and down all seasons, and with Mark Sanchez at quarterback I wonder how they will go on offence, but their defence is really good and has been all season. Part of me wants to pick the Buccaneers to keep this close, but I don’t trust their defence, and with them being on the road I’m going to nervously back the Eagles to cover the spread in this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Eagles
Dan’s Pick:    Eagles

Washington @ Panthers (-7.5)

Washington got a really good win last week, but I can’t see them tripping up this Panthers team that just keeps rolling. It’s a lot of points, but I don’t see Washington moving the ball on the Panthers’ defence, and so I’m backing them to cover the spread.

Gee’s Pick:    Panthers
Dan’s Pick:    Panthers

Chiefs @ Chargers (+2.5)

The Chiefs are on a bit of a roll, whilst the Chargers have just been so injured. I don’t think that Philip Rivers has enough weapons to take on a Chief’s defence and they’ve been bad on defence for most of the year, so I fancy the Chiefs to cover this spread on the road in San Diego

Gee’s Pick:    Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:    Chiefs

Packers @ Vikings (-0.5)

Not only have I picked against Mike Zimmer for two weeks and regretted it, but they also have the defence to keep a struggling Packers offence in check. I’m fed up of picking against a head coach that I really like, and he seems to have the Vikings playing really well.

Gee’s Pick:    Vikings
Dan’s Pick:    Packers

49ers @ Seahawks (-12.5)

I think the Seahawks will win this game, but given how bad their offensive line has been, and therefore how disappointing their offence have been, I’m not going to back them to win by thirteen points despite the big win they had in San Francisco earlier in the season.

Gee’s Pick:    49ers
Dan’s Pick:    49ers

Bengals @ Cardinals (-3.5)

I am both really nervous about this game, and finding it hard to pick. I am hoping that the Bengals’ performance on Monday night was just a blip, but the Cardinals are a really good team. I am hoping it will be a close one, and getting that extra half point has just pushed me into keeping faith with the Bengals, but it really could go in any direction in Arizona with several Cardinals having ties back to the Bengals so I’m sure they will be desperate to get the win.

Gee’s Pick:    Bengals
Dan’s Pick:    Cardinals

Bills @ Patriots (-7.5)

I am fairly confident that the Patriots will find a way to win this game, but given how injured they are, and the recent improvement in the Bill’s play I don’t see them winning by eight points, and it is possible that Rex Ryan will get the win he so desperately wants.

Gee’s Pick:    Bills
Dan’s Pick:    Bills

Salute to the Unheralded and Thursday Night Pick

19 Thursday Nov 2015

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With week ten in the books we can say goodbye to another team’s unbeaten record, and already my assessment of who might be in the scrap for playoff places from last week is looking outdated. There are all kinds of themes presenting themselves such as the number of penalties being called, the number of injuries this year, what actually constitutes a catch these days, but having touched upon it whilst recording the podcast with Dan yesterday I want to look somewhere else.

We were discussing the Pro Bowl voting being open, and Dan fell into the classic trap of listing the glamour positions, and somehow missed out tight ends and offensive linemen whilst discussing offence before I got to tackle defensive players (in fairness, due to time constraints I didn’t get a chance to look at safeties or special teams either). Now the Pro Bowl is given a lot of focus when discussing a player careers, but there is also a lot of name recognition that influences the voting. This shouldn’t be that surprising given the popularity of not only football, but fantasy football with its heavy emphasis on offensive skill players. However, football is a team sport that relies on eleven players performing a very specific set of synchronised tasks on each snap of the ball that all interact to achieve the desired task, be it offence, defence, or special teams.

In my brief sojourn into American football training, it quickly became apparent how reliant you are on those around you carrying out their jobs whilst you have to focus on yours. The helmets restrict your peripheral vision so you can’t second guess what is happening around you, and if you try then it is too late anyway. Football is a game of power, speed, and split second timing; and that’s at the amateur level. Those of us who write about the NFL may talk about bad players, but even those at the bottom of the depth chart are likely to have physical gifts we can only dream of. However, even the most talented of the high profile players aren’t going to get very far if their colleagues are struggling. If you want proof of this, look at the performance of Super Bowl winning quarterback Russell Wilson, who is coming into the prime of his career, and whose play is demonstrably being affected by the play of the offensive line in front on him. Right now he is too quick to pull the ball down and run when being rushed, but this is hardly a surprise given that he is the most sacked quarterback in the NFL so far this season, and imagine how bad those numbers could be if there was a less mobile quarterback behind that line.

So whilst I understand the focus on the spectacular plays, and the popularity that the fantasy game has brought to the league, there are an awful lot of players who are critical to your team’s successes who are not getting the love they deserve. The run stuffing defensive tackle who occupies two linemen so the star linebacker can make the tackle, the punt gunner who gets down the field fast enough to force a fair catch, the long snapper who only gets noticed when he fails to deliver a perfect ball to the punter or holder, or the blocking tight end who rarely catches a ball but is likely a huge part of your team’s running attack or ability to protect the quarterback. The sad fact is though, that as crucial as these players are, there are not the stats to always accurately explain what is going on. Whilst the headlines are over losing Dion Lewis, and Julian Edelman, the Patriots have also lost three tackles this season and yet somehow they are still finding ways to win. I don’t think either the Patriots or the Panthers are going unbeaten this season, it is just too hard and the margin for error is so small, but you wouldn’t bet against the Patriots going deep into the playoffs this season.

So with that in mind, let’s take a look at tonight’s game the week after Dan claws back two games on me.

Gee:    Week 10   6-8             Overall   75-72
Dan:    Week 10   8-6             Overall   72-74

Titans @ Jaguars (-2.5)

We have the Tennessee Blues taking on the Jacksonville Golds in this week’s colour rush Thursday night game, which I am really looking forward to seeing for the two teams playing rather than the kits. I am curious to see what Mike Mularkey is doing with the Titans, and to get another look at Marcus Mariota. The Jaguars offence is coming together nicely, although they as a team need to cut out the mistakes, but I really like the two Allens in receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns. I will back the Jaguars in this one as they seem to be gaining some momentum even if their last minute win against the Ravens was lucky.

Gee’s Pick:     Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:    Jaguars

Bills at Jets and Week 10 Picks

14 Saturday Nov 2015

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It feels slightly strange to be sitting down to write this today, but whilst my thoughts are with the people of Paris, the people of Beirut, the refugees fleeing those who falsely claim these attacks are in the name of Islam, one of the ways we counter the actions of those who perpetrated those acts is by carrying on as normally as we can. They want us to be scared, and feel alien from one another, but whilst I feel heartbroken, I choose to write as normal and so on to football.

I’ll start with a confession, I quite like the single colour kits, although I suspect this will depend on what they come up with for each team going forward. The game was also a good one between two good defences that came down to the end of the fourth quarter.

The Bills offence struggled against the Jets’s blitzes, giving up four sacks as Muhammad Wilkerson frequently got through their line and garnered two sacks. Things could have been even worse but for Tyrod Taylor’s running ability, although there was at least one occasion when he ran out of bounds for a loss when he could have simply thrown the ball away. Still he was able hit enough plays to get a touchdown, as the Bills used screen plays and LeSean McCoy to move the ball. The only really good offensive display from either side was McCoy who repeatedly ran for ten yards as his burst and ability to change direction enabled him to pick a path through a Jets defence that was determined to protect their injured secondary through aggressive play. McCoy finished the game with an impressive one hundred and twelve yards rushing off just nineteen carries as well as catching five balls for forty-seven yards. The defences are what won the day in this game, and the Jets made life very difficult for the Bills, particularly after the Jets finally added to their first quarter field goal with a touchdown that brought the home crowd into the game, and the Bills didn’t score another point in the game.

The Jets struggled on offence as much as the Bills, outgaining them by thirty-eight yards but Ryan Fitzpatrick also threw two interceptions to go with his two touchdowns. They managed to get over one hundred yards rushing, but clearly weren’t confident in their ability to run consistently against the Bills defence as they often passed on first/second down. There were times where Chris Ivory looked like the back who started the season so strong, but he also looked tired at times, and it didn’t help that Stevan Ridley finished the game losing one yard on his three carries. However, as well as the Bills did stifling the Jets offence and getting the two interceptions, they really could have lost this game. Several times the Jets aggressively went for it on fourth down, and one particularly impressive sequence had Fitzpatrick run a quarterback sneak for six yards on third and ten before going for it on fourth down and getting the yards he needed with a pass. Then the Jets defence not only stopped the Bills, but their special teams blocked a punt to get the ball on the Bills own thirteen yard line. However, the Jets couldn’t get the ball in the end zone, with a lofted pass on fourth down floating past Kellen Davis before he could find the ball in the air.

This was really good game to watch if you like defensive battles, but it was really won in the second quarter. Firstly Ryan Fitzpatrick was intercepted when he threw a dangerous ball into bracketed coverage that Brandon Marshall couldn’t hold onto as he tried to catch it coming over the corner, and it popped up into the hands of Corey Graham. The Bill could only get a field goal from the resulting drive, but on the following kick off they forced Devlin Smith to fumble on the return and Duke Williams ran the ball in for a touchdown. After this ten point swing they were able to build enough of a lead to withstand the Jets late rally, but they really could have lost it.

And having failed in the first game, it’s time to move onto the rest of the week’s picks.

Bears @ Rams (-7.5)

The Rams are coming along nicely with a fearsome defence and Todd Gurley giving them something they can focus on to make the offence run. The problem is that Nick Foles has not been that impressive this season, but the addition of Wes Welker to give him help on third down in the slot may well help if he can still play. That said, I’m going to worry about Welker every time he is hit and I just hope he doesn’t get another concussion. However, despite all their progress, I’m not sure they should be giving this many points to a Bears team who have been within three points of every team they have played since they were shut out in week three. The defence seems to be coming together, whilst Jay Cutler is throwing fewer interceptions and seems to have something going with offensive coordinator Adam Gase. I don’t think they will win this game, but it will be closer that eight points.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Browns @ Steelers (-4.5)

The Steelers’ defence is going to have to keep playing as well as they have to keep the team in playoff contention. It’s hard to believe that Roethlisberger managed to only come away with a foot sprain from last week’s game as his foot really looked like it could have been badly hurt. They have so far managed to keep themselves in touch of the playoff race, and the Browns are not the worst team to be facing. Their run defence has not been good, and you could see a healthy dose of DeAngelo Williams in this one. I don’t see the Browns having enough offence to compete in this game, so I’m backing the Steelers to beat this spread.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Cowboys @ Buccanneers (-1.5)

The Cowboys go into Tampa with a six game losing streak, and you could say they’re due a win, equally you could say that there isn’t anything to indicate they are going to turn this round. However, Jameis Winston hasn’t thrown an interception in the last four games, and they might stand a chance in this one. I’m not fully sure of my reasoning, but I just have a feeling that the Bucs are going to get the win in this one at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Lions @ Packers (-11.5)

The Packers are coming off two losses, but they are a different team at Lambeau Field than they are on the road and the Lions are just the team for them to get themselves back on track. I don’t know if there will be a reaction from the Lions to the recent spate of firings, but I don’t see them doing anything in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Panthers @ Titans (+4.5)

The Titans are coming off their second win of the season having fired Ken Wisenhunt and handed the team to Mike Mularkey, but the Saints defence definitely lent a hand. However, they were glad to have rookie quarterback Marcus Martiota who has looked like he is going to be a very good quarterback. The problem for them this week is that they are welcoming an unbeaten Panthers team whose defence has been playing really well. Not only that, but whilst the Titan’s defence is ranked in the top ten by DVOA, they are a relatively lowly twenty-third in run defence as they welcome a Panthers team who really run the ball well.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Dolphins @ Eagles (-6.5)

The points do give me a little pause, but the Dolphins are too far off the pace whilst the Eagles are beginning to come together. The Eagles have run for over one hundred and fifty yards in the last four games and the Dolphins are another team with a bad run defence. Equally the Eagles defence has been good all year, and so I think they will have enough in this one. Sorry Dan.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Saints @ Washington (+0.5)

The Saints offence has been good over the last few weeks, but their defence has been horrible. This should give Washington a chance in this game, but I can’t quite bring myself to pick them to win.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Jaguars @ Ravens (-5.5)

I’m really not sure what the Ravens have done to be getting this many points even before they lost Steve Smiths. The Jaguars have been good enough to just lose this season, but Blake Bortles has the receivers to take advantage of the Ravens secondary so whilst I may regret this, I’m backing the Jaguars for a second week in a row.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Vikings @ Raiders (-2.5)

The Raiders have played really well on offence this season, but their defence scares me. However, whilst I said I should not have picked against Mike Zimmer last week, I think I am going to do it again, because whilst the defence looked really good, Amari Cooper has been special and I just think the travelling Vikings may lose out with Bridgewater trying to come back from his concussion last week.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Chiefs @ Broncos (-6.5)

The Broncos need to get back to running the ball and they may well do that this week, but the Chiefs have the defence to cause them real problems. I’m not sure the Chiefs will win this one, but I think they’ll keep it closer than seven points.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Patriots @ Giants (+7.5)

The Giants have been good on offence, but their defence has been struggling in recent weeks and are likely to be missing Prince Amukamara who has a torn pectoral muscle. The Giants have had success against the Patriots in recent seasons but this defence is not the one that beat them, and I see the Patriots continuing their great run even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Cardinals @ Seahawks (-3.5)

The Cardinals are a really good team at home, but I wonder if they have enough to win this one on the road. Their offence has been very good this season, but they’ve had a tendency to turn the ball over with Bruce Arians aggressive approach and I’m not sure that this is going to work for them against the Seahawks in Seattle. Their defence will have more than enough to contain the Seahawks offence, but I think they will struggle overall. This is my pick of this week’s game, and I think the Seahawks will be desperate to win it to keep themselves in the playoff hunt.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Texans @ Bengals (-10.5)

I’m not very comfortable about this pick, but the Texans have really struggled this season so whilst I am taking a leaf out of Dan’s big book of optimism, I don’t have to feel good about it.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Midseason Review

13 Friday Nov 2015

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With week nine in the books we are now in a position where all NFL teams have played at least eight games and so can safely say we are half-way through the season, which is frankly somewhat terrifying. I am continuing the development of what I write and when, particularly having introduced recording a podcast to my schedule so I will be moving the majority of the week’s picks to the write up of the Thursday night game in an attempt to spread my efforts more equally, but this might not help me this week as I thought I would take a look at each division’s season so far.

AFC North

Team W L T Form
Bengals 8 0 0 W8
Steelers 5 4 0 W1
Ravens 2 6 0 W1
Browns 2 7 0 L4

I am going to work round the points of a compass, but this does allow me to start with the Bengals who are one of three unbeaten teams in the NFL and look to be in a strong position to win the division, but as Marvin Lewis said, they’ve given themselves an opportunity yet it won’t mean a thing if they go 2-6 the rest of the way. If the Bengals have been the very embodiment of a balanced and healthy roster, the Steelers have done nothing but fight injuries on offence. They have barely had their lead trio of Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, and Anotio healthy at the same time, with Bell now gone for the season and Roethlisberger injured again with a sprained foot, it’s up to their young improved defence to keep them in the wildcard hunt, which they most assuredly are.

The Ravens and Browns are surprisingly far off the pace given that this is usually a very competitive division. Given how they are run it is perhaps not surprising that the Browns appear to have taken a step back from last years and are so far off the pace, but the Ravens woes are unexpected but their problems in the secondary and at wide receiver has really hampered them and it looks like they could be picking unusually high in next year’s draft.

NFC North

Team W L T Form
Packers 6 2 0 L2
Vikings 6 2 0 W4
BEARS 3 5 0 W1
LIONS 1 7 0 L2

The Packers have lost two straight games, but these were against teams that were unbeaten at the time, so whilst there is continued concern about the way their offence is functioning, and the problems on the defence in the last game, it is not time to panic yet. The Vikings almost seem to have snuck into their 6-2 record, but have done it off the back of a sure tackling defence and enough offence to get them wins. The play of rookie receiver Stefon Diggs has certainly helped in recent weeks, and whilst they have a nasty run in that includes playing the Packers twice, they at least are in position to compete to make the playoffs.

The Bears looked awful at the start of the season, but they have steadily improved and have been competitive in every game since their 0-3 start, going 3-2 in the last five games. They are out of the playoff picture, but at least are making progress as opposed to the putrid Lions who have gone 1-7 with their only win coming against the Bears in week 6. They lost talent in the offseason; the offence has regressed, whilst the defence doesn’t seem to have recovered from the losses to their defensive line. The injury to DeAndre Levy, one of the game’s best coverage linebackers, has not helped either. They have been firings galore with first the offensive coordinator and the coaches involved with the offensive line going before the London game, and the team president and general manager being fired after their horrid loss to the Chiefs. Their owner, ninety year old Martha Ford has addressed the team this week after her firing of the senior personnel and laid out her expectations for the rest of the season so it looks like there will be plenty to keep an eye on over the coming months in Detroit.

AFC East

Team W L T Form
Patriots 8 0 0 W8
Jets 5 3 0 W1
Bills 4 4 0 W1
Dolphins 3 5 0 L2

This division was meant to be up for grabs this season, but that changed when Tom Brady’s suspension was overturned and the Patriots have simply gone from strength to strength. The defensive changes have worked, whilst Brady and the offence continue to function well despite several injuries to the offensive line, although they have now lost running back Dion Lewis for the season to an ACL tear as well. They will be looking at pushing for the Super Bowl once more and right now it is hard to bet against them. The Jets and Bill are both still in the hunt for a wildcard place, but the Jets’ defence that was so strong earlier in the season has regressed against the pass in recent weeks, whilst the Bills have been up and down all season. I’m looking forward to seeing them face each other this Thursday in a game the Bills probably can’t afford to lose.

The Dolphins have had a season of turmoil that started with a win against Washington before losing three games in a row. Joe Philbin was let go after the London loss and the new inexperienced head coach Dan Campbell got immediate results with his focus on physicality and emphasising the run. Unfortunately, his two wins were against AFC South opposition and the problems with the offensive line and secondary were a concern before they lost their start defensive end Cameron Wake for the year to injury. There are structural problems with the roster that need to be addressed and the rest of the season will be about whether Campbell can put together a strong enough argument to keep this new job.

NFC East

Team W L T Form
Giants 5 4 0 W1
Eagles 4 4 0 W1
Washington 3 5 0 L1
Cowboys 2 6 0 L6

The NFC East is a division where no one has really established themselves as the favourites to win, although it does look like it is going to come down to either the Giants or the Eagles. The Giants have been fairly good on offence, but not spectacular, whilst their defence has played tough in patches but has also been horrible at times. They are ranked second in special teams, but they will need to improve if they are going to make or do anything in the playoffs. The Eagles had a tough start to the season as their high flying offence that looked so good in preseason stumbled the moment they face a team that were actually game planning for them. The offence struggled to establish the run and Sam Bradford did not look comfortable, but they have now run for over 150 yards in the last four games so things are coming round. Their defence however has been rock solid, and whilst they will miss rookie linebacker Jordan Hicks who was outstanding before he tore a pectoral muscle and is now out for the year, they have some depth to keep things going. In another division they might already be out the running, but if they can keep their recent form going then they stand every chance of winning the division.

The same cannot be said of Washington who have been more solid around the lines this season, but not enough to compete in their division. Their wins have come against a Rams team without Todd Gurley, a struggling Eagles team, and a Buccaneers team who are 3-5 themselves. They will need another couple of drafts before they will truly be able to compete and I suspect they will need to find a quarterback at some point because Cousins turns the ball over too much given what he gives them in the passing game. Meanwhile, people of a certain persuasion might put the karmic consequences of signing Greg Hardy as the reason for the Cowboys’ injury curse, but whether due to random probability or the anger of the football gods, their season has been torn apart. The defence has been fairly solid but hasn’t generated enough turnovers, whilst the offence has not coped with missing Dez Bryant and Tony Romo. A six game losing streak since Romo was hurt has left them out of the playoff hunt, and it will be tough for them to rescue much going forward.

AFC South

Team W L T Form
Colts 4 5 0 W1
Texans 3 5 0 W1
Jaguars 2 6 0 L1
Titans 2 6 0 W1

The AFC South has the dubious distinction of being the only division in the NFL lead by a team with a losing record. This might not change either given that Andrew Luck who has been carrying injuries for stretches of the season, now has a lacerated kidney and will be gone for two to six weeks. They did win two games with their forty year old backup quarterback, but there are still flaws in their roster, even if the offence played better under the new offensive coordinator last week. Somehow the Texans may still have a shot in this division, with Ryan Mallett getting himself thrown off the team, Bill O’Brien has actually settled on a quarterback, but they have not been playing well so it’s hard to see where the improvement is going to come from. Maybe the bye will have done them some good, but I hope not for one more week as they face the Bengals on Monday.

The Jaguars and Titans are both bad teams working on getting better. The Jaguars are beating themselves with mistakes, there are good players and the offence is taking shape nicely, but so far this has resulted in lots of credible performances that have resulted in valiant losses. The Titans defence has made some progress, but the offence really suffered when rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota was injured. However, they have also fired their head coach and Mariota led his team to a win over the Saints so things may improve in coming years for the fans in Nashville.

NFC South

Team W L T Form
Panthers 8 0 0 W8
Falcons 6 3 0 L2
Saints 4 5 0 L1
Buccaneers 3 5 0 L1

The Panthers are the third and final unbeaten team whose excellent defence and surprising offence are slowly winning people round. They have the best running attack in the league, making good use of Cam Newton’s ability to run the ball and are surviving in the passing game despite losing their leading receiver from last year to injury. Still, Greg Olson has played virtually every snap on offence and they have made it work. The Falcons on the other hand started strongly, going 5-0 before fading away to a 6-3 record that includes losses to the Saints, Buccaneers, and the 49ers. They early improvements seemed to have stalled, and it is possible that teams have worked out what their new coach is doing, but they are in the strange position that despite their record, if they don’t halt the slide soon they may fall out of the playoffs. That said, they are two games ahead of their nearest rival for the final wildcard spot but the Eagles, Rams, and Seahawks will all be watching them with interest.

The Saints are another team that started poorly, but whilst their offence is playing much better, their defence is still bad and is giving Drew Brees too much to do for them to win consistently. They might haul themselves into the wildcard race, but they look to have serious flaws so I’m not sure that it will happen.

The Buccaneers have struggled for long stretches of this season, and the problems on defence are worrying given that is Lovie Smith’s area of expertise. However, there have been improvements in Jameis Winstons performance over recent weeks, and the rookie hasn’t thrown an interception in four games so it looks like they have a quarterback to build for the future.

AFC West

Team W L T Form
Broncos 7 1 0 L1
Raiders 4 4 0 L1
Chiefs 3 5 0 W2
Chargers 2 7 0 L5

The Broncos have one of the best defences in the game, which they have needed as Peyton Manning has been bad, giving the ball away too many times. He can still make the throws at times, but he is so inconsistent and it is a testament to the quality of his defence that they have won this many. They look headed to the playoffs, but they will need the running game to become a consistent factor if they want to go deep.

The Raiders have gone from promising to genuinely fun to watch thanks to the Derek Carr to Amari Cooper connection, and an offence that puts up points. Sadly there defence is falling away, but they have at least put themselves in a position to fight for a wildcard spot over the second half of the season, which is not somewhere they’ve been for a long time.

Sadly I think that the Chiefs are just that bit too far behind to also be competing, but  they have looked much better on defence with the return of corner Sean Smith to play opposite the excellent rookie Marcus Peters. The offence is even working around the loss of Jamaal Charles, but whilst they have won their last two games, they’ve probably left themselves too much to do. That said, you can see them spoiling things for some other teams over the second half of the season.

The Chargers are in turmoil, with their stadium dominated by away fans, the possibility of moving to LA hanging over them, whilst on the field they have been beset by injuries. The performance of Philip Rivers has actually been excellent in trying circumstances, but there is only so much he can do, which sadly has been resulting in close losses rather than wins.

NFC West

Team W L T Form
Cardinals 6 2 0 W2
Rams 4 4 0 L1
Seahawks 4 4 0 W2
49ers 3 6 0 W1

The Cardinals have had a couple of blips, but the combination of an opportunistic defence, keeping Carson Palmer healthy, and Bruce Arians’ aggressive play calling has them only one game behind where they were last season. If they can keep Palmer upright then there’s every possibility they can win this division and make a real push into the playoffs.
The Ram and Seahawks have put themselves in a position to compete, but now is the time to see if they have what it takes. The Rams defence has played strong through most of the season, but the addition of a now healthy Todd Gurley has really helped the offence. I have no idea if the addition of slot receiver Wes Welker will help them, but they are now looking like a Jeff Fisher team and have given themselves a shot at the playoffs. The Seahawks meanwhile struggled early on and whilst their defence appears to have largely come around, there are still questions on offence. The defence were rocky early with Kam Chancellor holding out for the first two games, but have improved once he returned. That said, they have given up a number of fourth quarter leads and are ranked thirty first by DVOA in pass defence against tight ends so they are not as good as in recent seasons. The offence has struggled as they have one of the worst offensive lines in football, with Russell Wilson frequently having to run for his life. A 13-12 win over the struggling Cowboys does not exactly inspire confidence, but they have Championship pedigree so it would be foolish to count them out just yet.

The 49ers season was always doomed before it started by all the players they lost or had retire in the offseason. Colin Kapernick has really struggled, and hasn’t looked good whether due to regression, the offence not being designed to take advantage of his skills, or a combination of the two. He has been benched in favour of Blaine Gabbert, who against expectations got a win against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, but it is going to be a long season in San Francisco and it could take a long time for them to replace the talent that they lost in the space of one summer.

That’s it, all thirty-two teams covered, but with half a season left there is plenty to play for and just because it is unlikely, it doesn’t mean that some of the middling teams can’t make the playoffs. It will be fun to look back at the end of the season and see what changed.

Last week I pulled another two games away from Dan, to give me a healthy five game lead with eight weeks left. I’m going to watch the Thursday night game and then set about writing up the game and making my picks for the rest of the week ten games.

Gee:    Week 9   8-5               Overall   69-63
Dan:    Week 9   6-7               Overall   64-68

Week 10 Thursday Night Pick

12 Thursday Nov 2015

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I am one team away from completing my mid-season round up, but it appears that the memory stick that those words are on is not in the house. I will get that up tomorrow, but I had better get the picks for tonight’s game up.

I’ll cover how we went last week in the next post as I don’t have the figures to hand although I did stretch my lead on Dan.

Bills @ Jets (-2.5)

I’m looking forward to seeing both defences in this game. The Jets started the season really well, but have seemed to slip a bit so it will be good to see what is going on. The Bill however look to be rushing their four linemen more, but I again am looking forward to see if this is the case for myself.

The offence for the Bills came alive last week with Sammy Watkins showing us what he can do whilst LeSean McCoy finally started to look like himself, and Tyrod Taylor returned from injury. However, both McCoy and Watkins are dealing with injuries. The Jets were actually leapfrogged by the Bills in the DVOA offensive ranking, but they have been just that bit more consistent, and they are at home so I think the Jets keep themselves in contention for a playoff spot with a win.

Gee’s Pick:    Jets
Dan’s Pick:    Jets

Thursday Night Guesses

05 Thursday Nov 2015

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It’s been a bad week for writing so I’m just popping up our picks for tonight’s game and will try to catch up over the weekend. It’s a toughie because of the spread, Dan and I have been texting back and forth between us, and he is keeping faith with the Bengals. I think the Browns will be desperate to do something on the national stage, and the points worry me, so whilst I think the Bengals will win, I think the Browns may well cover. This is one of those occasions where I will be happy to be wrong, unless the Bengals lose…

Browns @ Bengals (-10.5)

Dan’s Pick:       Bengals
Gee’s Pick:       Browns

NFL Dolphins @ Patriots Recap

01 Sunday Nov 2015

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I was really looking forward to this game, and whilst it did not turn into the contest that I hoped it would, there was still plenty of interesting things to see in this game.

The Dolphins may have lost a one sided game, but I thought their defence did a credible job, although you wouldn’t know it from the numbers. The Dolphins made the Patriots punt the ball six times, including a couple of short drives, and stood tough. They were able to get pressure on Brady with a pair of sacks, six quarter back hits, and they were able to affect Tom Brady more often than these numbers suggest. However, in the end they Patriots were able to work out what matchups favoured them, and the Dolphins defence got very little help from their offence.

The Patriots offence focused more on running the ball more than they did last week, but that was not exactly a difficult task. However, they still relied on Brady leading their pass attack to move the ball. He threw for three hundred and fifty-six yards and four touchdowns completing twenty-six of thirty-eight attempts. His usual targets led the team with Rob Gronkowski catching six balls for one hundred and thirteen yards and a touchdown whilst Julian Edelman caught seven for eighty-one yards and two touchdowns. However, the player that really caught the eye was Dion Lewis who the Dolphins struggled to cover out of the backfield all game and who gave them fits whenever he had the ball in space. It’s is hard to look so much quicker than other players in the NFL, but Lewis managed it and the Patriots certainly were able to use this at key spots to keep the ball moving. For his touchdown Lewis caught a short little dump off pass, but was able to run it in before the Dolphins who had all covered deeper receivers were able to react.

This was the real difference between the two offences in this game as whilst the Patriots offensive weapons were utilised in key spots, the Dolphins were unable to get their own into the game at the right moments. There we some good individual plays, but no one was able to stand out when required and once again the Dolphins got away from the run earlier than they would have wanted. Part of this is likely that they only managed fifteen yards from thirteen attempts, but a major part of their problems late in the game was having got behind in the first half, they spent too much time in defined passing formations, allowing the Patriots to rush the passer without fearing the run. This only served to highlight that the Dolphins’ offensive line is simply not that good in pass protection and they got caught out by simple blitzes and rushes when they were in multi receiver sets. As a consequence Tannehill was sacked five times, and whilst he threw some nice passes, he also threw a pair of interceptions. The commentators were talking about how the Dolphins needed to leverage Tannehill’s talent better in the passing game, but I think some of that is having balance in the offence. Gone are the days of running the ball to setup the pass as the base of your offence, if this even existed, you are more likely to setup the run with the pass by forcing the defence to respect your deep ball. In reality for most teams what you need is the balance to make the defence have to respect both eventualities, and be able to offer some level of deception. The Dolphins were not able to do that in this game and it cost them as too often it was all to obvious that is was another pass attempt that was coming.

The Patriots defensive strength is in their front seven these days, and this was easy to see with the way they shut down the Dolphins run game and got after Ryan Tannehill. They managed five sacks and ten quarterbacks in this game, with sacks being spread between ends Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich, with linebacker Dont’a Hightower and DB Devin McCourty also getting in on the act. The Dolphins were not able to move the ball consistently in this game and were frequently in poor field position, and the Patriots defence kept making plays when their offence did stumble. It is not often that you see a defence give up less than twenty yards in the run game, and yet the Patriots have been on both sides of it in their last two. However, they chose not to run the ball last week, where as it looked like they forced the Dolphins not to in this one.

The Dolphins came into this game with momentum after appointing their new coach, but this game was a dose of realism. The improved intensity may have helped against the two poor AFC South teams that they faced in the last two weeks, but they needed more in this game. They were unable to lean on their running game as they have since Dan Campbell took charge, and in the end were simply not able to get enough going on offence to keep up with the Patriots in this one. The worry would be that the problems on offence looked familiar in terms of play calling, I plan to ask Dan about that on the podcast this week.

The Patriots just keep rolling this season. On paper the defence looks thin in the secondary, but clearly this hasn’t hurt them so far and looking at the schedule they don’t appear to be facing any offences that would make them worry unduly. In this game Bill Belichick was able to take away the part of the Dolphins offence that had got them going again, whilst the offence continues to play well. This may not be the most terrifying of Tom Brady’s offences, but he has more than enough weapons to keep the ball moving through the air and looks as good as ever.

I was hoping to go through the coaching tape of the Eagles visiting the Panthers, but the travel to go see the final London NFL game is going to get in the way. Time to go see some live football in person.

Coaching Stability, talent, and Week 8 Picks

29 Thursday Oct 2015

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We are already approaching the mid-point of the season and yet we still have five unbeaten teams, but this week I want to focus some of the other franchises as there are some curious trends amongst some of the less successful teams.

I wrote after the week four games when the Dolphins fired Joe Philbin that it was unusual to fire coaches mid-season in the NFL. And that certainly used to be the case, although he was the second coach to be fired ahead of a bye week having lost a game in London in the last two seasons. Whilst I am not expecting Rex Ryan to be in trouble yet, Lions Head Coach Jim Caldwell is getting ahead of that possibility after their horrible 1-6 start by firing his offensive coordinator and the two coaches responsible for the offensive line heading into the Lions’ trip to London. As the Dolphins did, the Lions have promoted from within, and I am looking forward to seeing in person what, if any, changes this has on the underperforming Lions offence.

Traditionally, it was always the Monday after the end of the regular season, known as black Monday, when coaches got their marching orders. However, with some teams demonstrating that you can achieve some results with a mid-season switch, it is possible that whilst we won’t see the levels of turnover that has so plagued Premiership football teams over here in the UK, it may become more common to fire head coaches in the NFL and it could be worth tracking certain losing teams as they approach their bye week.

A prime candidate if this sacking of coaches is becoming a more common practice could well be Chuck Pagano of the Indianapolis Colts. They may well currently be the division leader, but they have a losing 3-4 record thanks to their defeat at the hands of the Saints at the weekend. More worryingly, they are visiting the Panthers this weekend and then hosting the Broncos before their week ten bye. There is already talk of discord between owner James Irsay, GM Ryan Grigson, and Pagano. This is perhaps not surprising given that Irsay is sure that he has a franchise quarterback and so must believe they have a championship window, but GM Grigson has not surrounded Andrew Luck with enough good players to win, and whilst this will be a source of some of the friction with Pagano, you only have to look to the fake punt coaching disaster of recent weeks to see that Pagano is hardly blameless either. We will know in a couple of weeks if there is going to be a change, but whilst they have three winnable divisional games left after the bye, time is running out for them to sort the problems in Indianapolis.

So whilst the Lions are firing coaches, and the Colts are at least the centre of a lot of disquiet, other teams are having problems with their talent. I am trying to not become boring on the subject, but I do not think it is a coincidence that apart from having top quality quarterbacks, one of the things that the consistently successful teams have in common is harmony between the front office staff and the coaches. You can’t build a team that wins without having talented players, but it takes more than physical ability to succeed in the NFL. When you are dealing with forty-six players active on game day, plus the rest of the roster and practice squad during the week, you have to have everybody pulling in the same direction. Not everybody on the roster has to be best friends, but there needs to be a mutual respect and a commitment to the work that is required in the NFL. Getting the right players, and keeping them motivated and invested is a vital part of creating a successful team and we have had two high profile incidents that highlight that this week.

I have written about what matters to the Cowboys is production on the field, and to be fair they will put in the extra resources to make this work, which has been successful with Dez Bryant. They even have taken to drafting sensibly in recent years, building themselves one of the top offensive lines in the league through the draft. However, they could not stop themselves from signing free agent Greg Hardy despite the moral argument against adding him to the team. I wrote in the preseason that I was glad that the Bengals showed no interest in Hardy, and this week’s antics demonstrate that even if you are prepared to swallow signing a player with no regard for women, and who is in fact a positive danger towards them, you are also signing up for a whole truck load of extra baggage that goes with his on field production. Apart from missing a practice last week, Hardy watched the Cowboys’ special teams give up a hundred yard kick off return. His reaction was not to offer to play special teams or give some positive encouragement; no he barged into the special teams huddle, slapped away the special teams coach’s clip board and got into a shoving match with him. He later got into a heated discussion with Dez Bryant, a man not unused to side line confrontation, but when Bryant is acting as the voice of reason then you know there is trouble. The only thing that makes this even more bizarre is that Jerry Jones went further than just protecting a team asset after the game when he called Hardy a leader. I don’t understand why you would want this man on your roster, yet alone talking about giving him a contract extension already. I would love to know what the other players actually think of him.

If things are dysfunctional in Dallas, at least they can point to the injuries sustained by their franchise quarterback and top receiver as the cause. The Texans have been woeful this season, and the ongoing quarterback saga took another twist this week. Having missed a practice through over sleeping during training camp, a training camp that was being televised no less. The much talked about Ryan Mallet missed the team’s chartered flight, and to buy his own ticket to get down to Miami. That the Texans released him is not a surprise, nor is it particularly surprising that Bill O’Brien wanted to cut him before the game and that he had to be talked round by Rick Smith into delaying. However, the fact that we know about this is surprising as that disagreement really should have stayed in house. Someone had to leak that, and you have to wonder what their agenda was. This may be it for Ryan Mallet in the league, but given how short of quarterbacks the league is, there may yet be a team out there that will give him a shot in training camp next season, but he would be on very think ice.

If you pay any attention to the scouting of college players, you will no doubt hearing a lot about physical tools, particularly for quarterbacks, but whilst the empirical testing of physical attributes is helpful, there is so much more to being a success in the NFL and it might help if teams paid a little more attention to this.

Moving towards picks, we were much more solid this week, and whilst I maintained my two game lead over Dan, the important thing is that I have a winning record once again. Now onto the week eight picks.

Gee:    Week 7   9-5               Overall   54-51
Dan:    Week 7   9-5               Overall   52-53

Dolphins @ Patriots (-7.5)

The Patriots are playing very well, but they are wearing down through injury and given how banged up they are on the offensive line, I wonder if they will be able to get to Tom Brady. I don’t think the Dolphins will necessarily win this game, and it will be fascinating to see how Dan Campbell’s team do against Bill Belichick’s game plan, but I’m not expecting a blow out so I’m joining Dan once again on Dolphins Island this week.

Gee’s Pick:    Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:    Dolphins

Lions @ Chiefs (-5.5)

The final London game of the season, but it is not quite the contest I thought I would be getting when I bought my ticket. The Lions have really struggled and the Chiefs put together some things last week, I don’t feel good about it, but the Chiefs have a number of players I like on defence so I’m backing them and hoping the points don’t bite me.

Gee’s Pick:    Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:    Lions

Buccaneers @ Falcons (-6.5)

The Falcons got back to winning ways last week even if it was ugly. This could be the game for them to get themselves going again against a Buccaneers team going through growing pains with their rookie quarterback, and a defence that has not looked convincing. I can see Gerald McCoy having a field day against the Falcons offensive line, but whilst the Falcons have their flaws, I think they have enough to win and I just hope they cover.

Gee’s Pick:    Falcons
Dan’s Pick:    Falcons

Vikings @ Bears (+1.5)

The Bears may be better than we first thought, but they are not a good football team and the Vikings are quietly going along nicely at 4-2 this season. I can’t look past them in this game.

Gee’s Pick:    Vikings
Dan’s Pick:    Vikings

Bengals @ Steelers (+0.5)

This game worries me, but then I always seem to say that about the Bengals. Coming off their bye to play the always awkward Steelers in Heinz Field, and I have this feeling that it’s going to be a close one field goal game like so many in the AFC North. The real problem is that Ben Roethlisberger could well be back for this game, the Steelers offence has terrifying weapons, and their defence has been keeping them in games despite the questions surrounding them. I think the Bengals will win, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Steelers win at home, but I’m taking a leaf out of Dan’s book for this one and trying to positive. Just don’t ask me about the game on Sunday!

Gee’s Pick:    Bengals
Dan’s Pick:    Bengals

Cardinals @ Browns (+5.5)

We don’t know who the Browns quarterback is going to be on Sunday, and Josh McCown’s success with the offence is the one thing this Browns team had going for them. I think they may well struggle on offence against the Cardinals opportunistic defence and I think the Cardinals should have enough to win this. I’m a little worried about the Cardinals on the road as I’ve already been bitten by them once already this season when they played the Steelers, but they could have won that game and I’m hoping the Cardinals cover the points in this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:    Cardinals

Titans @ Texans (-3.5)

This is a horrible pick to have to make as the Texans have been blown out twice this season whilst giving up over forty points. However, the Titans look likely to be without Marcus Mariota again this season and haven’t demonstrated much since their week one win against the Buccaneers, which was the template of their season last year. I’m reluctantly backing the Texans in this one as they are at home, but I don’t feel good about it.

Gee’s Pick:    Texans
Dan’s Pick:    Texans

49ers @ Rams (-8.5)

The 49ers were pretty solid on defence last week, but their offence was awful and visiting the Rams in St Louis is not likely to improve their performance on that side of the ball, particularly given their protection issues. The points give me a slight pause, and I expect the 49ers to have a reaction to their disappointing loss to the Seahawks, but I expect the Rams to win and I can’t bring myself to pick the 49ers to cover.

Gee’s Pick:    Rams
Dan’s Pick:    49ers

Giants @ Saints (-3.5)

The Saints are coming off a second straight win as they welcome the Giants, but I’m really not sure how much I can trust their improvements. The offence is moving the ball better, there are signs that the defence is coming together, and Sean Payton also worked in a fake field goal last week. Meanwhile, the Giants were outgained last week but got touchdowns in all three phases of the game, although they had to get a one hundred yard kick off return touchdown to win the game. So whilst this is a game that might tell us things about both teams, it’s not one that I’m exactly keen to pick. That said, I’m going to rely on home advantage and stick with the Saints momentum. Worriedly…

Gee’s Pick:    Saints
Dan’s Pick:    Giants

Chargers @ Ravens (-3.5)

The Ravens season is mired in problems with the passing game on both sides of the ball, and having fallen to the Cardinals last week, welcome a Chargers team who if nothing else can move the ball through the air. However, their defence is not good and it is possible that Justin Forsett who has only flashed this season might be able to take advantage. The problem is that the Ravens have not demonstrated any consistency this season and whilst the Chargers just got beaten by the Raiders, I don’t think that Joe Flacco has the tools to keep up with Rivers and the Chargers offence.

Gee’s Pick:    Chargers
Dan’s Pick:    Chargers

Jets @ Raiders (+1.5)

The Raiders really have a candidate for offensive rookie of the year in Amari Cooper who has been so good for them, but the Jets are significantly better on defence than the Chargers, whilst the Jets offence is ranked a surprising sixth by DVOA! There is a significant jump to the Steelers ranked fifth, but apart from being able to run the ball, Ryan Fitzpatrick has been getting good production from both Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall at receiver. In a game that is near as damn it a flat pick the winner, I’m backing the better team even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:    Jets
Dan’s Pick:    Jets

Seahawks @ Cowboys (+6.5)

The line worries me about this one, but whilst the Cowboys have the tight end in Jason Witten to test the Seahawks ongoing issues with tight ends, the Seahawks are beginning to play much better on defence as they settle in with their new defensive coordinator. I am worried that this is a pick based on my distaste and distrust of what is going in Dallas, but they are also ranked twenty-sixth in DVOA in rush defence and Marshawn Lynch was looking much more like himself last week.

Gee’s Pick:    Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:    Seahawks

Packers @ Broncos (+2.5)

The unbeaten record ends for one of these teams this week, and given the problems the Broncos are having on offence I think this is the game where their defence finally can’t do enough to win the game.

Gee’s Pick:    Packers
Dan’s Pick:    Packers

Colts @ Panthers (-6.5)

I’ve written extensively about the Colts earlier in this week’s column, so I’ll simply say that a really good defence and a strong running game is exactly what they don’t need to be facing, especially on the road. I don’t foresee any issues for the Panthers in covering this line, which is probably the kiss of death, so I’ll apologise in advance to the fans in Carolina but I’m backing them anyway in this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Panthers
Dan’s Pick:    Panthers