Week Four Picks

02 Sunday Oct 2016

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Colts @ Jaguars (+2.5)

The first International Series game of the season sees the London Jaguars hosting the Colts, and desperately needing the win. There is an argument that the Jags will be more used to the trip to London, which gives them an advantage over the Colts with the travel, but whilst their defence does seemed to have improved, their offence has taken a step back. The Colts defence is not playing well, in fact a lot of their team around Andrew Luck is not coming together, and as a consequence I’m struggling to pick this game, but I trust Andrew Luck more that Blake Bortles for as long as he can stand up to the hits he is taking.

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Colts

Panthers @ Falcons (+2.5)

The Falcons’ offence is much more balanced this year, with Matt Ryan looking more like the quarterback who used to lead this team to the playoffs regularly. However, the defence is not there yet, and so this game presents a good chance for the Panthers to get their offence right as they visit Atlanta. The injury to Jonathan Stewart is a worry for the Panthers, but the biggest problem for them on offence so far this season is that they have faced the Broncos and Vikings’ defences, which are looking like some of the best in the NFL and so I think that things will look much better for them this week in a game they really need to win to stop their pursuit of the playoffs going off the rails.

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

Bills @ Patriots (-6.5)

The Bills are coming off a win, whilst the Patriots are scrambling to find a healthy quarterback, and so if these were any other pair of teams the pick would be fairly straight forward. However, I have already been bitten twice by picking against Bill Belichick this season, and the Patriots home record is pretty formidable so I’m not prepared to pick against them covering this line.

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

Lions @ Bears (+2.5)

The Lions defence is a worry in this game, but the Bears are struggling on both sides of the ball and I think the Lions will win this game so hopefully this is a straight forward cover. This makes this a prime candidate for me getting it wrong, but I like what the Lions are doing on offence so I’m hanging my hat on that.

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Lions

Browns @ Washington (-8.5)

I think the Browns are playing tough for Hue Jackson, and I am really not sure that Washington should be giving eight and a half points to anyone, and to prove it I am pick the Browns to cover against a Washington team that are not playing that well.

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Browns

Titans @ Texans (-6.5)

The Texans have just lost JJ Watt, likely for the season, and are coming off an embarrassing 27-0 loss to the Patriots in week three. They do have some extra rest from playing in the Thursday night game, but whilst the Titans’ offence is not really coming together how they would like, the defence is playing pretty well and so I’m expecting another close game, certainly close than this line suggests. Whether Bill O’Brien taking over play calling duties on offence has enough of an effect to prove me wrong I don’t know, but I’ll pick on what I have seen so far.

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Titans

Raiders @ Ravens (-3.5)

This is a tough one to pick as the Baltimore Ravens have quietly gone 3-0 with the defence really coming together, whilst the offence is lagging a little behind due to a combination of new receivers and Joe Flacco coming back from last year’s season ending knee injury. The Raiders offence has looked very good so far this season, in fact it is ranked number one in the league by DVOA, but the defence has struggled. I am really not sure how good either team is with the Ravens going unbeaten against an unimpressive series of teams, whilst the Raiders have gone 2-1 against a similarly uninspiring series of opponents. I’m going to grab the extra half point for the away team, and not feel very happy about it.

Gee’s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Seahawks @ Jets (+3.5)

The Seahawks are coming all across the country to play the Jets with an offensive line that has not looked good and an injured Russell Wilson. I have heard some argue that Wilson should be rested a week given how good the Jets front line is and how much the Seahawks rely on their quarterback’s mobility, and I’m not too sure I disagree with them. The Jets offence worries me going against yet another excellent looking Seahawks defence, particularly given the six interceptions Ryan Fitzpatrick threw last week, but in this game at home and getting three and a half points I’m backing the Jets.

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Jets

Broncos @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

The Buccaneers’ head coach Dirk Koetter worries me, and even though they are in Tampa Bay, I don’t see the Bucs being able to live with a Bronocs team who’s defence is still up there with any in the league and an a offence that is doing more than last year when they won the Super Bowl.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Broncos

Cowboys @ 49ers (+2.5)

The Cowboys have very possibly lost Dez Bryant for the week with a hair line fracture in his leg, but he has not been a focus for rookie quarterback Dak Prescott so far this season so I’m not sure it is a disaster. They are on the road this week, but I’m not sure that a trip to San Francisco is going to be too hard for them as the 49ers are still rebuilding the roster and every time I have picked them to keep a game close they have failed so I can’t pick them in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Cowboys
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

Rams @ Cardinals (-8.5)

This feels like a real trap game, as somehow the Rams are 2-1 despite a sputtering offence. I am really not so upset by them sitting their first round draft pick, but an offence that has Todd Gurley shouldn’t be ranked thirty-first by DVOA. However, whilst I want to pick the Cardinals as I think they are the better team with an excellent coach, things have not been clicking. Having lost to the Patriots in the opening game of the season, they have only won one more game with Carson Palmer struggling. Their offence has small margin of error on all the deep shots that they take, and I’m not at all confident about them covering this line. However, I do trust Bruce Arians and his staff, and they really need to turn this round to get back into the hunt for the division, but I trust them to win this game rather than cover this line. I’d quite like to be wrong on this one.

Gee’s Pick: Rams
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Saints @ Chargers (-4.5)

This is a battle of teams featuring excellent quarterbacks and very little else. The Saints defence is horrible again, and it feels like Drew Brees is pressing a little to try to make up for it. The Chargers however keep losing players, and I’m surprised to see them giving this many points. The Saints have only lost one game by five points or more, but I can’t bring myself to pick them in this one, but I do not feel confident about it.

Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Chargers

Chiefs @ Steelers (-5.5)

The Steelers were looking like one of the best teams in the NFL until they lost a surprising game on the road in Philadelphia last week. The defensive is struggling to rush the passer, and the offence was surprisingly ineffective last week despite being pretty terrifying even before getting Le’Veon Bell back like they do this week. The Chiefs are struggling a little on defence to rush the passer as they are missing Justin Houston, but they are a well-coached team whose offence is continuing to play well under Andy Reid. Part of me wants to pick the Steelers as I think their offence is really going to come together now, but this is just too many points to give to a Chiefs team who I think will stay in contention if nothing else.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Giants @ Vikings (-4.5)

The Vikings are surprising everyone with how good their offence is going with Sam Bradford as their quarterback and without Adrian Peterson. Their defence is also playing even better than last year, and their new stadium is incredibly loud. The Giants are a better team than I was expecting, with the defence coming together with their free-agents and the offence developing. However, I have to back the Vikings in this one as I have more faith in what Mike Zimmer is putting together in Minnesota.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

The End of Streaks

29 Thursday Sep 2016

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Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens, Bill Belichick, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, Denver Broncos, Gus Bradley, Houston Texans, Hue Jackson, Indianapolis Colts, International Series, Jacksonville Jaguars, JJ Watt, London, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, NFL, Odell Beckham, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers, Rex Ryan, San Diego Chargers, Trevor Siemian, Tyler Eifert, Vontaze Burfict, Washington

It was a strange week three that saw many a game going differently to how people expected, and saw both Dan and I get murdered on our picks.

I wrote before making my picks last week that I expected more teams to get their first loss or win than continue their streaks, but it seems I picked all of the wrong ones and even in the games where I made the right choice, those choices were hardly convincing.

One of the unbeaten Texans and Patriots had to lose their first game, but whilst I acknowledged that Bill Belichick could win this game, I was not expecting the Patriots to manage a 27-0 win over the Texans.
The Cardinals went to Buffalo and lost, giving them a losing record and granting the Bills their first win of the season and resulting in the usual Rex Ryan bravado about facing the Patriots this week.
The Broncos went to 3-0 with an impressive win in Cincinnati where the Bengals defence stacked the box and dared Trevor Siemian to win the game with his arm, which he promptly did.
Even when I picked the Dolphins to beat the winless Browns in Miami and get their first win of the season, they needed overtime to do it and were nowhere near the ten point lead I needed for my pick to come through.
I expected the Viking to keep the game close against the Panthers, but instead ran out with a victory to remain unbeaten despite their injury troubles.
I didn’t see Washington beating a Giants team that were off to a great start, and yet they managed it whilst Odell Beckham grabbed headlines with another emotional outburst. This time the talented receiver lost a fight to a field goal net on the Giant’s side-line.
The Ravens went down to Jacksonville to face a desperate Jaguars team who were not desperate enough to avoid going 0-3, whilst the Ravens have the quietest unbeaten record in the league.
The Colts were one of only three games featuring a 2-0 or 0-2 record that I picked correctly, when they managed to get a win over the visiting Chargers who now have a perfect record of played three, lost three starters for the season to injury.
The Eagles put pay to the Steelers unbeaten record and kept their own, making the hype surrounding Carson Wentz even greater. I am so impressed with the Eagles coaching staff and the turnaround they have made so far, I’m really looking forward to seeing how this team develop over the rest of the season.
The Bears continued to lose, giving me my only other totally correct pick of week two where I got it right and the game went how I expected.
Finally, I was tempted into picking the Falcons because of an extra half point the Saints were giving up, but it turns out that the Falcons didn’t need these points as they ran out easy winners in a game of a lot of points.

Now, the wonderful thing about the NFL is that it is doing a sterling job of giving us talking points and excitement over the weekends, but boy is it making predicting what is going to happen difficult.

Still it is still early, and even though I will be writing my quarter poll summary in a couple of weeks, there are very few teams that should be truly despondent. However, whilst the Cleveland Browns were never likely to be looking for anything other than progress, and to their credit they are playing tough for the Hue Jackson in his first year, the Bears, Saints, and Jaguars are all in trouble. Only three teams have made the playoffs after starting 0-3 since 1990 when the playoff format was expanded to its current format. The Bears were expected to be rebuilding this year even if the injuries have made things worse than I was expecting, but the Jaguars were hoping to make the next step and push for the playoffs whilst the Saints have a Super Bowl winning quarterback who they have failed to surround with enough talent to push as far as they would expect.

The Jaguars are a particular disappointment as they head over to London to host the Colts this week, and already people are wondering if the London game is going to cost another head coach his job. Despite the warm feelings that everyone who has ever dealt with Gus Bradley seems to have, it is hard to see the Jaguars owner putting up with these results for much longer, and the Jaguars will need to turn things round quickly if Bradley is to keep his job past the end of the season.

And continuing the theme of disappointment, the big news of the last twenty-four hours is that JJ Watt has been placed on injured reserve as he having more problems with his back, and could possibly be gone for the season. I’ll write a little more about this over the weekend as I was already going through the coaching tape of Watt vs the Patriots, but hopefully he can make it all the way back as he is one of my favourite players to watch, but back injuries are hard ones to return from and people who’ve had such problems often say that they never felt the same.

The week five games look to offer plenty of excitement and intrigue, but already the attrition has really started to affect some teams, and it is an all too prescient reminder of how tough a game American Football is. I never want to see a player injured, but I will confess that part of me is curious to see what the Patriots would do if they were forced to play Julian Edelman as their quarterback.

Still, it is time to start looking at this week’s games, starting with tonight’s game that pits Dan’s Dolphins on the road against my beloved Bengals.

Our records are nothing to shout home about, particularly after our disastrous previous week, but I did manage to maintain my three point lead:

Gee: Week 3 5-11 Overall 21-27
Dan: Week 3 5-11 Overall 18-30

Dolphins @ Bengals (-6.5)

The Bengals lost their first home game of the season, in what has been a tricky open to the season, but if they can get back to 2-2 they can still hope to make a push for the playoffs. It appears that Tyler Eifert is not going to make it back for the game, but Vontaze Burfict comes off suspension and is likely to help the Bengals defence straight away. I think the Browns are going to give teams a tough game at the moment so I’m not reading too much into last week’s result for the Dolphins, but an overtime game before a short week road game is not the best prep, and I’m hopeful that the Bengals can win and hopefully find some rhythm on offence. For one game only I’m borrowing from Dan and picking blindly based on my fandom.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Week 3 Picks

25 Sunday Sep 2016

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NFL, Week 3 Picks

I feel like the real trick with this week’s picks is not to over react and have all the teams who are either 2-0 or 0-2 continuing their winning or losing streak, as the more common result is likely to be a first win or loss, but whether I stick to that as I go through each game individually remains to be seen.

Cardinals @ Bills(+4.5)

The first game already shows the problem with my opening paragraph as the Bill have simply been bad, and given the difficulties they had with pass defence, I can’t see them being effective at slowing down the Cardinals offence and Bruce Arian’s vertical attack, nor being able to move the ball consistently on an opportunistic defence and so I see this as being a fairly straight forward win for the Cardinals.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Broncos @ Bengals (-2.5)

The season doesn’t get any easier for the Bengals as their first home game of the season sees them welcome the Super Bowl champions. That said, whilst the Broncos defence has been impressive, I’m not sure the Broncos have seen a defence of the standard of the Bengals, and with an inexperienced Trevor Siemian under centre on the road I’m backing the Bengals to get back to a winning record.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Broncos

Browns @ Dolphins (-9.5)

Things just keep going from bad to worse for the Browns, and apart from the injuries to their quarterbacks, promising rookie receiver Cory Coleman broke his hand in practice, proving yet again that the Browns can’t have nice things. This line is somewhat eye watering, but with the Dolphins at the home and having mounted a comeback in the second half against the Patriots, I think that not only are they the more likely to get the first win for either team, but that they may well cover this spread as well.

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Lions @ Packers (-7.5)

This game gives me real pause, as all is not well with the Packers so far, with similar problems surfacing on offence as they faced last year. However, I think in their opening game at Lambeau Field they will get back to winning ways, but this is a lot of points. The injuries in the Lions’ defence worry me and although their offence has looked good so far this year, I am not sure about them going against a Packers defence that has impressed me despite the problems against the pass. I keep changing my mind on this one, but I think it could be a get right game for the Packers that in the end gets them the cover.

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Raiders @ Titans (-1.5)

The Raiders are still a very up and down team with their offence currently ranked number one in the NFL by DVOA and the defence ranked thirty-second. They are travelling to a Titans team who got an unlikely win against a Lions team who had three touchdowns waved off for penalties. I’m not sold on the Titans as being good, but the Raiders don’t travel well either. I’m really not sure which way to go, but with head coach Jack Del Rio taking a bigger hand in the defence this week I’m nervously backing the Raiders on the road.

Gee’s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Vikings @ Panthers (-6.5)

I think that the Panthers will run out winners in this game, but given how ineffective Adrian Peterson had been this season, I’m not sure how badly his loss will hurt a new look Vikings offence who still need to fix their offensive line issues. The Panthers defence are not really a team to do this against, but the Vikings defence will likely keep them in the game and so I’m backing the Vikings to cover on the road.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

Washington @ Giants (-4.5)

I’m sort of going against my plan of picking here, but DC Grudens are not functioning well on offence, with quarterback Kirk Cousins playing inconsistently, and couple this with a defence that is not playing that well and I don’t see a lot of hope. The Giants may have built their defence through free agency, but it seems to be working and with a passing attack that seems a lot more balanced than last year, I think Eli Manning has the options to get the ball to receivers no matter what is going on between Odell Beckham and Josh Norman.

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Giants

Ravens @ Jaguars (+0.5)

The Ravens have got off to a good start to the season, but are quietly not a great road team under John Harbaugh who gave up twenty points to the Browns last week. They face a desperate Jaguars team down in Jacksonville, who will already be aware of how seldom 0-2 teams get to the playoffs and so if they are to rescue their season they have to win this game, even if it is early in the season for must win games.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Jaguars

Rams @ Buccaneers (-4.5)

The Rams are 1-1 despite not scoring a touchdown on offence yet this season. This week they travel down to Tampa Bay, where I expect Jameis Winston to bounce back from his terrible performance last week. I really don’t trust the Rams, and I think this is a game where they could be exposed.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Rams

49ers @ Seahawks (-9.5)

It is just possible that the Seahawks have a fatal flaw thanks to the combination of Marshawn Lynch retiring and the continued awfulness of their offensive line. I don’t exactly see them loosing this game, but I am not at all convinced that they will run out ten point winners over anyone. The 49ers are playing hard for Chip Kelly, and I see him keeping this one competitive even on another tough road trip.

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: 49ers

Chargers @ Colts (-2.5)

I am really not sure what to do with this game. The Chargers are on the road in Indianapolis having lost Danny Woodhead last week after losing Keenan Allen in week one. Their defence is playing better than it was last year, but the injury bug keeps biting this team. The Colts have looked okay offensively thanks to Andrew Luck looking more like himself, but the offensive line still isn’t that great and they’ve now lost Dante Moncrief to a fractured shoulder blade. They have also struggled once more in rush defence. I’m reluctantly backing the Colts at home as it is hard to see a team with a quarterback as good as Andrew Luck going 0-3, but that’s not to say it won’t happen.

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Colts

Jets @ Chiefs (-2.5)

The Chiefs are not quite right on defence, and their offence fell short against a Texans’ defence that were looking very good until they played the Patriots on Thursday. I trust Andy Reid but I think they might have too many injuries at similar positions. That said, Arrowhead Stadium is a famously difficult place to visit and the Jets have injury concerns of their own in their very deep receiver group. I’m really not sure which way this could go, but I’m going to back the Jets as from what I have seen I believe that they are the better team even if this is a difficult spot.

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Jets

Steelers @ Eagles (+3.5)

The Eagles have got off to a surprisingly good start with rookie Carson Wentz playing very well, but the Steelers are a completely different level of team to the Browns or Bears and so I think the Steelers run out winners in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Bears @ Cowboys (-5.5)

The Bears are really struggling, and with the number of injuries piling up to go alongside the problems they were already having even before Jay Cutler hurt his thumb, I think they are in for a long game against the Cowboys in Dallas. The line makes me slightly nervous, but at the end of the day I think the Cowboys are simply better equipped to win this game by a fair margin.

Gee’s Pick: Cowboys
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

Falcons @ Saints (-3.5)

I really don’t have a handle on the Falcons, who are coming off a road win in Oakland to face a Saints team who at least managed to stop the Giants’ offence from running rampant last week. The problem for me is that I don’t have great hand on the Saints either, but their defence still scares me, and with the extra half point I’m going to pick the Falcons to cover, but I’m really not very confident on this one.

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Saints

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

25 Sunday Sep 2016

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Bill Belichick, Bill O'Brien, Brock Osweiler, DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans, Jabaal Sheard, Jacoby Brissett, Jamie Collins, JJ Watt, Lamar Miller, New England Patriots, NFL, Ryan Griffin

Houston Texan 0
New England Patriots 27

This is a slightly odd game to write up as it was so incredibly one sided, and even though I said when I picked the Texans that I could see the Patriots winning the game, I was not thinking with a result like this.

The Patriots dominated the Texans in all three phases of the game and so I will start with mention of the Patriots in special teams. One feature that has already been pretty prominent this season is the Patriot’s reaction to the new kick off rules, with them deliberately kicking the ball short of the end zone and backing their coverage team to tackle before the twenty-five yard line and so give them an advantage in field position. Add this to them regularly pining the Texans behind the twenty yard line by punting, and they had a decided advantage in special teams even before the Texans started fumbling their returns.

On offence the Patriots demonstrated that they don’t have a single game plan, but adjust to both their opponent and the strength of their team, and so with a rookie third string quarterback they went very run heavy whilst using stunts and extra linemen to control the Texan’s defensive front. This they did very effectively, and whilst they were not explosive on offence, they did enough. This is even more impressive when you find out that in the second quarter Jacoby Brissett sprained his thumb. The Patriots may have only generated one hundred and three yards of passing offence on eleven completions from nineteen attempts, but when you can get one hundred and eighty-five yards on the ground then this doesn’t matter.

The Texans defence was pretty ineffective, which JJ Watt kept remarkably quiet. It is hard to write too much about them in a game like this, they kept in control of the passing game, but that really wasn’t the focus of the Patriots offence. How they allowed the known to be mobile Brissett to run twenty-seven yards for a touchdown is a mystery, and they will be hoping that this was just a blip in the season and Watt’s problems were simply caused by a road game on a short week whilst still coming back from a back injury.

If the defensive problem for the Texans were possibly a blip, the offensive struggles are actually pretty worrying. The game plan did not work at all, with a surprising number of attempted runs on third down, and the Texans didn’t even make it into the Patriots half of the field until the third quarter. It didn’t seem that Brock Osweiler could drive the team in this game, and DeAndre Hopkins had to make some pretty spectacular catches to get his four catches for fifty-six yards. All too often Osweiler would throw to Lamar Miller or Ryan Griffin underneath, and he will have to improve greatly to justify his seventeen million dollar a year contract. It must also be worrying that Bill O’Brien was so outcoached on his side of the ball, but plenty of coordinators have failed against Bill Belichick.

The Patriots defence really had the number of the Texans all game, and whilst there was no one area obviously dominant, they were able to contain the Texans all game and certainly never allowed them to sustain a drive. The interception by Jamie Collins was as much because Osweiler simply didn’t see him lurking in the middle of the field, and Jabaal Sheard got both of the team’s sacks, but in keeping with the overall nature of this game it was a team performance that was the story of the defence.

The Patriots keep rolling, and I don’t think anyone would bet against them going 4-0 without Tom Brady despite the injury problems stacking up at quarterback, especially with the Bills visiting them next week.

The Texans will be hoping this was a one off anomaly, but with the offensive problems and JJ Watt not looking at all himself, there will be concern until they can put a run of results together.

Everybody has a plan until you hit them in the mouth

22 Thursday Sep 2016

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Adrian Peterson, Bill Belichick, Carson Wentz, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Jacoby Brissett, Jimmy Garopollo, Josh McDaniels, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, New England Patriots, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles, Sam Bradford, Seattle Seahawks, Teddy Bridgewater, Tom Brady, Week 3 Picks

I won’t go into the reasons why me usual routine has been turned around this week, but it does remind of the various quotes regarding what happens to plans when they run into reality.

The NFL is a very real reminder of this, with various teams already facing very different situations than they expected. Of course, for the Vikings the plan didn’t even survive the pre-season, with Teddy Bridgewater going down with his horrible knee injury in practice. This not only affected the Vikings, but Carson Wentz is now starting and surprising everyone with the quality of his play for the Eagles after Philidelphia traded the expected starter Sam Bradford to the Vikings. Both teams are now 2-0, with Bradford surprising everyone with his performance against Green Bay on Sunday as the Vikings eked out a win despite losing Adrian Peterson to a torn meniscus that could keep him out until the postseason.

Meanwhile, the Browns who traded down with the Eagles, allowing the team from Philadelphia to select Wentz are facing questions about what they didn’t like about the quarterback. If the Browns are the ones that are getting asked the questions now having lost two starting quarterbacks in the first two weeks, there could be some awkward questions for the Rams who picked Jared Goff instead of Wentz. With Goff failing to even dress in week one, and the offence still not having scored a touchdown this season, you can see people beginning to wonder about the decision even if the questioning does seem to have been delayed by the win the Rams ground out against the Seahawks on Sunday.

These days everybody wants to declare the winners and losers as soon as possible, despite the fact things are often far more complex than they seen. Planning is important, but rarely do even the most basic plans survive when you put them into action.

The thing we need in life to counter this is adaptability and resilience. The mental toughness to take what is thrown at you is often the difference between trying to do something, and the perseverance to make it a success.

The actual truth is that we don’t know how either Goff or Wentz’s actual careers will go, two games of their rookie season is simply not a big enough sample size, and the thing I like about the way the Rams holding out Goff is that if he’s not ready he shouldn’t just be thrown in. Because we picked him first is a really bad reason to start a quarterback. If you have a player you hope will play of a decade, it doesn’t make sense to play them early to appease the matter of winning now, or at least it doesn’t if there is a real risk that you could hurt the development of the player.

Sometimes circumstances don’t allow for this. Tonight the New England Patriots will be starting rookie Jacoby Brissett thanks to a combination of Tom Brady’s four game suspension and Jimmy Garopollo spraining his throwing shoulder during last week’s win against the Miami Dolphins. I am looking forward to seeing how Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick scheme an offence in only three days practice for a third round draft pick who was their third string quarterback going into the season.

For some this would be too much, and excuse for a team to lose a game, but somehow I think that at least part of the coaches will be relishing the challenge.

You trust that he’ll get good coaching but it’s a hell of a task and there simply could be not enough time, which leads me to tonight’s pick:

Texans @ Patriots (-0.5)

It turns out that apart from lots of points, the other thing that will get me to pick against the Patriots is being down to their third string quarterback with only three days to prepare. I’m not saying that the Patriots won’t win tonight, but it is a big ask and not one I’m prepared to pick as the most likely to happen. Watch Bill Belichick prove me wrong.

Gee’s Pick: Texans
Dan’s Pick: Texans

Week Two Picks

18 Sunday Sep 2016

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So in yet another change of format, I’m going to try separating out my weekend blog posts to make them a bit easier to find. So here are Dan and mine’s picks for the week.

Bengals @ Steelers (-3.5)

This game obviously makes me nervous, and will be a physical nasty encounter despite all the talk of it being just another game from both sides this week. I know the Bengals are in Pittsburgh, but I think this will be another close game and with the Steelers giving away an extra half point at home I’m sticking with my team.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Ravens @ Browns (+7.5)

This is a big number for a home team, and part of me wants to pick the Browns with the competent Josh McCown under centre, but there are too many young players for me to be brave enough to do it. I hope this isn’t a mistake

Gee’s Pick: Ravens
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

Cowboys @ Washington (-2.5)

This is a must win game for both teams with the Cowboys having already lost to the Giants in week one they cannot afford to lose two divisional games, and neither team will want to start 0-2 given that such a record usually means you won’t make the playoffs. I’m still trying to get a feel for both teams, but I think Washington will be better this week, not least because they won’t have to deal with Antonio Brown.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Washington

Titans @ Lions (-5.5)

The Titan’s started well and faded in their first game, but are now on the road against a Lions team that I think might be headed in the right direction.

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Lions

Chiefs @ Texans (-2.5)

The Chiefs are on the road, and are a bit banged up. I could regret this, but if you’re having problems at guard, the last thing you want to do is face JJ Watt, even if he is recovering from a back operation. I’m backing the Texans, all be it nervously as Andy Reid has a way with his team.

Gee’s Pick: Texans
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Dolphins @ Patriots (-6.5)

You could make an argument that the Dolphins improved defence going against a banged up Patriots offence should give them a chance to cover, but I can’t overlook what the Patriots did to the Cardinals on the road in week one and so I can’t bring myself to pick the Dolphins to cover.

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Saints @ Giants (-5.5)

Although I don’t feel like I have a handle on the Giants, for me this game comes down to the fact that they have a more competent defence that the Saints, and with them being at home I am very nervously picking them to cover this spread. I see no reason why the Saints should suddenly start travelling better than they have in recent seasons..

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Saints

49ers @ Panthers (-13.5)

This is a horrible spot for the 49ers, on the road after a Monday night game against a team who haven’t played since Thursday. I almost guarantee a Panthers win in this one, but this is a huge spread and it is no mean feat to shutout any NFL offence and so I’m picking the 49ers to cover.

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: 49ers

Seahawks @ Rams (+5.5)

This is the Rams first home game that matters since moving back to LA, and they will be desperate to recover from last week’s loss. For some reason they always play the Seahawks tough, and with Russell Wilson on a gimpy ankle and in front of big home crowd I’m backing them to cover, although I can see the Seahawks winning and very possibly making me bitterly regret this pick.

Gee’s Pick: Rams
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Buccaneers @ Cardinals (-6.5)

I am not too worried about the Cardinals being able to turn things round after their week one loss, and they could very easily run out big winners in this one, but I just have this feeling that Jameis Winston will keep this one close for the Bucs.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Falcons @ Raiders (-4.5)

I’m not sold on the Falcons and so will hesitantly take the Raiders despite them giving away this number of points.

Gee’s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Colts @ Broncos (-5.5)

I think the Broncos defence will really test the Colts’ offensive line, whilst their offence will show just how bad the Colts are at stopping the run. Combine this with the Broncos having extra rest from their opening day win and I’m backing them to cover despite these points.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Broncos

Jaguars @ Chargers (-2.5)

The Chargers offence worries me with the loss of Keenan Allen, and so even though they are on the road, I’m backing the Jags to get their first win of the season.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Jaguars

Packers @ Vikings (+2.5)

This is a rough pair of road games for the Packers to open the season given that their last two preseason games were on the road as well, and with the Vikings defence looking really good and all the energy that will be surrounding them as the Vikings open their new stadium, I’m picking the Vikings getting 2.5 points. Watch Aaron Rodgers make me look very foolish…

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Eagles @ Bears (-2.5)

I’m not completely sure on this one, as Wentz was only playing against the Browns in week one, but the rookie quarterback looked good and I think they may be better than we were thinking. I don’t have a real feel for the Bears, but getting the points I’m taking the Eagles.

Gee’s Pick: Eagles
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

Jets @ Bills

18 Sunday Sep 2016

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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Brandon Marshall, Buffalo Bills, Darrelle Revis, Eric Decker, Greg Roman, Jalin Marshall, Kacy Rodgers, LeSean McCoy, Marquise Goodwin, Matt Forte, New York Jets, NFL, Nickell Robey, Quincy Enunwa, Rex Ryan, Todd Bowles, Tyrod Taylor

New York Jets 37
Buffalo Bills 31

This was a tighter game than I was expecting, but then again it was a tighter game than it should have been given that that the Jets looked better on both sides of the ball for most of the game and nearly put up five hundred yards on the Bills defence.

It would be curious that Rex Ryan fired his offensive coordinator after this game, given it was his defensive side of the ball that was possibly the problem, but this action does remove a possible replacement lurking on his staff as the Bill have fallen to 0-2, but let’s look at the how the teams played.

The Jets struggled to run the ball early in the game, and whilst they did manage to grind out over one hundred yards as a team, it took Matt Forte thirty carries to get his round one hundred yards, although he did punch in three touchdowns. What really struck me with the Jets on offence was the number of third down conversions the Jets made, going eight of thirteen, and having me regularly make a note of a receiver making a third down catch to get a new set of downs. In fact they had two receivers go over one yards in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, whilst Quincy Enunwa also chipped in with ninety-two with a very strong opening to the game, but who was forced out with an injury to his ribs. This meant that we saw Jalin Marshall catch three balls for forty-five yards and it seems that the Jets offence is going to be effective again this season, and certainly they appear to have depth at receiver.

The Bills defence started strongly against the run, but they never seemed to get control of the Jets passing game, and despite putting the Jets in difficult positions on third down, was unable to get regular pressure or stop the passing game. As is typical of Rex Ryan’s teams, there were some badly timed penalties, but it is really hard to fathom how a defensive coach of such skill and reputation as Ryan has come to a team that already had a very good defence and seems to have taken them backwards. The Bills did manage one sack, and flushed Ryan Fitzpatrick out the pocket several times, but often he was able to make yards or get a first down with his feet, or make a pass to a receiver. However, they did contribute a touchdown when Jets receiver Jalin Marshal fumbled after a catch and corner Nickell Robey was able to scoop up the ball and run it back for a touchdown. They also manage to limit the Jets to field goals early, or this game would not have been as close, but in the end they just gave up too much in the passing game.

The Bills offence on the other hand, was unable to get things going consistently with LeSean McCoy flashing on occasions, and quarterback Tyrod Taylor being mobile but inconsistent in the passing game. However, what kept them in this game were big splash plays. The Bills opening drive started poorly on their first two plays, but on third and twelve Tryod Taylor threw a deep pass to Marquise Goodwin who got past Darrelle Revis for an eighty-four yard touchdown. They were unable to do much for the rest of the first half, but at the start of the second half Taylor was flushed out of the pocket, yet he was able to find enough time to pass to Greg Salas who got behind the defence to score a seventy-one yard touchdown. However, when it really mattered they couldn’t make the plays they needed, and their final touchdown owed much to the Jets having a thirteen point lead and so they were focussing on stopping the Bills scoring quickly, but were playing soft coverages. The offence has not been great this season for the Bill, but I really do think there’s more to Greg Roman’s firing than just that.

The Jets defence is playing well, at least in the font seven, and they were consistently getting pressure even if they didn’t generate any sacks. However, Derrelle Revis got burned again as age is catching up with him and he can’t quite run as he used to. He is still a very good corner, but it does appear that his time as the premier shutdown corner in the league is over. The two long touchdown passes will worry head coach Todd Bowles and defensive coordinator Kacy Rodgers as they gave up a lot to AJ Green in week one, so there’s plenty for them to do, but their excellent front gives them a strong foundation to work from.

The Jets got back to 1-1 on the road in a divisional game, and Ryan Fitzpatrick possibly put to rest the idea that he can’t beat a Rex Ryan defence. I still expect the Jets to push for the playoffs, whilst the Bills having fallen to 0-2 and have given themselves a real hole to climb out of, which I can’t see them doing.

Divisional Pick’em 2016

18 Sunday Sep 2016

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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Divisional Pick'em 2016, NFL

So this is Dan’s baby, so he gets all the credit for the competition, whilst I had to fight HTML to get the tables hopefully looking okay.

The points system is as follows:

1 point for each team who finish in the position you’ve put them in.
1 bonus point for getting all 4 teams in a division in the correct order.

This means that there’s a total of 5 points up for grabs in each division; 40 in total.

It will be fun to see who has done the best job come the end of the season.

	Name:	TWF Dan	TWF Gee	The English Lion	Aussie Guys NFL	Miami Dolphins UK
	Twitter:	@TWFDan	@WrongFootball	@EnglandLion313	@AussieGuysNFL	@MiamiDolphinsUK
	Team:	Dolphins	Bengals	Lions	49ers	Dolphins

AFC North	1^st	Steelers	Bengals	Steelers	Bengals	Steelers
	2^nd	Bengals	Steelers	Bengals	Steelers	Bengals
	3^rd	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens
	4^th	Browns	Browns	Browns	Browns	Browns
AFC East	1^st	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots
	2^nd	Dolphins	Jets	Jets	Jets	Dolphins
	3^rd	Jets	Dolphins	Dolphins	Bills	Jets
	4^th	Bills	Bills	Bills	Dolphins	Bills
AFC South	1^st	Colts	Jaguars	Colts	Colts	Colts
	2^nd	Jaguars	Colts	Texans	Texans	Texans
	3^rd	Texans	Texans	Jaguars	Jaguars	Jaguars
	4^th	Titans	Titans	Titans	Titans	Titans
AFC West	1^st	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Raiders
	2^nd	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos	Raiders	Chiefs
	3^rd	Raiders	Raiders	Chargers	Broncos	Broncos
	4^th	Chargers	Chargers	Raiders	Chargers	Chargers

NFC North	1^st	Packers	Packers	Packers	Packers	Packers
	2^nd	Vikings	Vikings	Lions	Vikings	Vikings
	3^rd	Lions	Lions	Vikings	Lions	Lions
	4^th	Bears	Bears	Bears	Bears	Bears
NFC East	1^st	Cowboys	Redskins	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys
	2^nd	Giants	Cowboys	Giants	Redskins	Giants
	3^rd	Eagles	Giants	Redskins	Giants	Eagles
	4^th	Redskins	Eagles	Eagles	Eagles	Redskins
NFC South	1^st	Panthers	Panthers	Falcons	Panthers	Panthers
	2^nd	Falcons	Saints	Saints	Saints	Saints
	3^rd	Saints	Buccaneers	Panthers	Buccaneers	Falcons
	4^th	Buccaneers	Falcons	Buccaneers	Falcons	Buccaneers
NFC West	1^st	Cardinals	Cardinals	Seahawks	Cardinals	Seahawks
	2^nd	Seahawks	Seahawks	Cardinals	Seahawks	Cardinals
	3^rd	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams
	4^th	49ers	49ers	49ers	49ers	49ers

	Name:	British Birdgang	Bucs UK	Going Long Podcast	British Bear London	Texans UK
	Twitter:	@BritishBirdgang	@bucsUK	@GoingLongUK	@BritBearLondon	@TexansUK
	Team:	Cardinals	Buccaneers	Bills	Bears	Texans

AFC North	1^st	Steelers	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals	Bengals
	2^nd	Bengals	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Steelers
	3^rd	Ravens	Browns	Ravens	Ravens	Browns
	4^th	Browns	Ravens	Browns	Browns	Ravens
AFC East	1^st	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Bills
	2^nd	Bills	Dolphins	Bills	Jets	Patriots
	3^rd	Jets	Jets	Dolphins	Bills	Jets
	4^th	Dolphins	Bills	Jets	Dolphins	Dolphins
AFC South	1^st	Texans	Colts	Texans	Texans	Texans
	2^nd	Jaguars	Jaguars	Colts	Colts	Jaguars
	3^rd	Colts	Texans	Titans	Jaguars	Titans
	4^th	Titans	Titans	Jags	Titans	Colts
AFC West	1^st	Broncos	Raiders	Broncos	Broncos	Chiefs
	2^nd	Raiders	Cheifs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Raiders
	3^rd	Chiefs	Chargers	Raiders	Raiders	Broncos
	4^th	Chargers	Broncos	Chargers	Chargers	Chargers

NFC North	1^st	Packers	Packers	Packers	Vikings	Packers
	2^nd	Vikings	Vikings	Vikings	Packers	Bears
	3^rd	Bears	Bears	Lions	Lions	Lions
	4^th	Lions	Lions	Bears	Bears	Vikings
NFC East	1^st	Giants	Giants	Cowboys	Redskins	Eagles
	2^nd	Cowboys	Eagles	Redskins	Eagles	Redskins
	3^rd	Eagles	Cowboys	Giants	Giants	Cowboys
	4^th	Redskins	Redskins	Eagles	Cowboys	Giants
NFC South	1^st	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers	Panthers
	2^nd	Falcons	Buccaneers	Buccaneers	Falcons	Falcons
	3^rd	Buccaneers	Falcons	Falcons	Saints	Buccaneers
	4^th	Saints	Saints	Saints	Buccaneers	Saints
NFC West	1^st	Cardinals	Cardinals	Seahawks	Cardinals	Cardinals
	2^nd	Seahawks	Seahawks	Cardinals	Seahawks	Rams
	3^rd	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams	Seahawks
	4^th	49ers	49ers	49ers	49ers	49ers

The Season Changes Everything

15 Thursday Sep 2016

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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NFL, Week 2 Picks

It is always hard to know how much to read into the offseason and preseason, and then there is a tendency to overreact to the week one results so I’m going to go through the opening slate of games and work through whether I would be worried or not if I was a fan of that team.

Carolina Panthers 20
Denver Broncos 21

The Broncos will be happy to have got a win following the same formula as last year. In fact, the offence looked like it flowed better now that it was working how Gary Kubiak would draw it up if he wasn’t making allowances of an ageing Peyton Manning. The defence still looks good and they will be hoping this is just the start of the defence of last year’s Super Bowl

Fans of the Panthers shouldn’t over react to this loss as Trevor Simian did not look like a rookie, and they did get some pressure, but the offence looked better with the return of Kelvin Benjamin. They can’t keep running Cam Newton as much, particularly with the headshots he was taking or he won’t finish the season, but they are not too far behind yet.

Tamp Bay Buccaneers 31
Atlanta Falcons 24

Getting off to a losing start against a divisional rival is not a great way to start the year, and with the streaky play of last year still a memory, the Falcons will need to sort the defence if they are to do better. Still, Mohammed Sanu leading receivers with eighty yards and a touchdown from five catches gives hope the offence might be more balanced this year.

The Buccaneers got the season off to a good start, with Jameis Winston take a step forward and we will see how far this is going to go, but it looks headed in the right direction now.

Buffalo Bills 7
Baltimore Ravens 13

The Bills got off to a slow start, with an offence that was worryingly unproductive with only one hundred and sixty yards of offence I get the feeling that things are not going to go well in Buffalo, but there is plenty of time to turn it round.

The Ravens ground out a win, and look to have some receivers for Joe Flacco to throw long to this year, but I don’t know if they are going to compete for the playoffs this year.

Chicago Bears 14
Houston Texans 23

The Texans got the win despite barely any production from JJ Watt, but Brock Ossweiler threw for a pair of touchdowns and two hundred yards with one interception. I’m still waiting to see how Ossweiler settles into the offence and this was only against the Bears, but as the only team with a win in the AFC South the Texans have to be happy enough with their start to the season.

The Bears are still a team in transition, and whilst the defence definitely looks like it is heading in the right direction, particularly with their linebackers, this was not the defence that would allow us to truly evaluate how they are progressing.

Cincinnati Bengals 23
New York Jets 22

The Jets biggest worry will be that they didn’t win this game, but their defensive front looked fearsome getting seven sacks, and there offence did enough to win the game if they had not had a field goal blocked and missed an extra point. The addition of Steve McLendon from the Steelers certainly was a potent addition to the already formidable decfensive line, and Quincy Enunwa was effective at receiver give the Fitzpatrick more options to throw to.

The Bengals struggled with protection on offence, but AJ Green and Andy Dalton did enough to win, whilst the defence limited the Jets receivers to relatively modest totals. This was not an easy way to open the season, and they will be very happy to have got the win as they head on to Pittsburgh for one of the marquee matchups of week two.

Cleveland Browns 10
Philidelphia Eagles 29

The Eagles got off to a better start than I was expecting, and whilst I’m not prepared to declare him the future after one game against a poor Browns team, Carson Wentz got his NFL career off to a winning start. He looked poised in the pocket as he registered a triple digit passer rating, justifying the faith the font office had in him when they traded Sam Bradford away. The defence is likely to take a little time to settle in, but Fletcher Cox has already registered his first sack of the season, and I wouldn’t bet against Jim Schwartz forming them into a strong unit.

The Browns thought that they could turn round Robert Griffin’s career, but sadly the oft injured quarterback broke the coracoid bone in his left shoulder, which may or may not require surgery. Already the Browns are saying that he will miss at least the next eight games. This might lead to an improvement in the passing game given that Josh McCown is a very competent backup who will throw a more accurate pass and so we’ll likely see more than the heave it up to Coleman or Pryor of RGIII. Both receivers are raw but intriguing prospects. I’m still prepared to back the process in the long run, but it does look as if this season is going to be painful and there will be some who will be wondering about their decision to trade the number two pick and not take Wentz given how good he looked in his first game.

Packers 27
Jaguars 23

The Jaguars gave a very creditable account of themselves, but ultimately lost against a Packers team that are still finding their way. Still, the only team in their division to get a win were the Texans and they won’t be worried too much about this loss unless it becomes a habit.

The Packers offence still looked a bit like it did last season, but it is perhaps not surprising that Jordy Nelson is still knocking off the rust as he comes back from last year’s significant injury. They look to be favourites for the division, but they will want the offence to improve over the coming weeks.

Vikings 25
Titans 15

The worry for the Titans is that they went into half time with a ten-zero lead, and ended up losing the game as their defence fell apart. I’m not necessary sold on exotic smash-mouth football as I don’t believe you setup the pass with the run, but that you setup your offence by being convincingly dangerous at both running and passing the football. I do like that the Titans are trying to do something different in terms of the trend in the league being passing offence, but you need the play-action deep threat to make sure that the opposition don’t just stuff the box. There’s a version of this offence that can work, look how effectively the Panthers run the ball with a myriad of options, but I’m not sure the Titan’s are there yet.

We knew that the Vikings’ defence was good, and they kept the team in this game, but it is slightly worrying that Adrian Peterson only got thirty-one yards on nineteen carries. Still, Stefon Diggs did manage over a hundred yards receiving and with a bit more time to settle Sam Bradford in, the Vikings will hope to be competitive in their new stadium, even if the Packers are not the easiest of visitors.

San Diego Chargers 27
Kansas City Chiefs 33

The Chiefs defence is banged up, and I am somewhat worried about their loss of Sean Smith over the offseason as the secondary only really came together last season once he returned from injury. Still, it does seem that Andy Reid has the trust of his players, and Alex Smith looked very good as he led the Chiefs back in the second half to win the game.

The Chargers were doing so well in until their injury curse struck again when they lost Keenan Allen and things just seemed to fall apart for them. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t’ concerned for their season, but they do seem to have improved from last year and it is too early to write them off yet.

Oakland Raiders 35
New Orleans Saints 34

As I feared, the Saints defence was porous as it doesn’t look to have improved significantly from last year and so it looks to be another season of Drew Brees trying score enough points to keep them in games, but how this will go I do not know.

The Raiders got off to a winning start, and there is no shame in giving up points to a Drew Brees led offence, but they will want to be more in control of games if they are to push for playoff this season, but things are definitely looking like they are heading in the right direction. I love the aggression of going for the two point conversion to win the game, and the NFL is a better league for having the Raiders be competitive.

Miami Dolphins 10
Seattle Seahawks 12

The Seahawks offensive line is indeed a problem, which in this game held them back and got Russell Wilson a sprained ankle. The defence is still going to be good, and they will be competitive, but we will have to see if the offensive line is bad enough to be an Achilles heels. For the record, I loved their approach to the national anthem, by standing arm in arm they made a strong statement of unity.

The Dolphins should have won this game, but for a dropped pass by Kenny Stills and blocked field goal, but the defence did enough to stifle the Seahawks even if the offence sputtered. The worry for me is how that defence is going to fair against better passing teams, and we’ll know more when we see how they do against the Patriots.

New York Giants 20
Dallas Cowboys 19

The Cowboys got a solid performance from Dak Prescott, who didn’t turn the football over and kept them in the game, but Ezekiel Elliot struggled to match up to the expectation placed upon the rookie running back. These are one of the teams that I’m not sure how to read because there are too many unknowns, and not being sure how the Giants are going to be this season, I’ll just have to see how they go over the next couple of weeks.

It appears that I was overly sceptical about the Giants offseason moves, and whilst I’m not saying I was entirely wrong, their defence does appear to have been better than I was expecting. I’m looking forward to finally getting to see them play to see for myself, and so I might have to watch them soon.

Detroit Lions 39
Indianapolis Colts 35

The Colts will be relieved that Andrew Luck looked like the quarterback that everyone expects him to be, but the defence looks to be a problem, at least until they Vontae Davis back and even then this unit could cause them problems. It is good to see Luck playing well, and he is a lot younger than Brees so there is plenty of time to win a Super Bowl, but the Colts really need to build consistently around him if they want to make the most of having a second franchise quarterback in a row.

The Detroit Lions won this game off the back of a more assertive performance by Matthew Stafford, who made the most of the balance that Marvin Jones and Golden Tate gave him at receiver. We will have to see how the defence shapes up, but I have faith that under Jim Bob Cooter the offence will continue to develop.

New England Patriots 23
Arizona Cardinals 21

The Cardinals will be incredibly disappointed to lose this game against the Patriots given the players they were missing. However, whilst Carson Palmer was not looking the sharpest he ever has, the Cardinals should have won this game were it not for another missed field goal and both Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson looked great. The secondary looked like they were struggling opposite Patrick Peterson, but I have faith the defence will improve as this coaching staff will not let things stand still and are too good.

What else can we say about the Patriots? The game plan worked as usual, the offence did enough despite the players they were missing, whilst the defence once again is really good with Chris Long enjoying life on a competitive team. With the most difficult game of the four without Brady out the way, it’s very possible that they could be 4-0 by the time he returns.

Pittsburgh Steelers 38
Washington 16

The big story I missed during the podcast recording was the amount of money Washington paid Josh Norman to have him playing zone whilst Antonio Brown ran riot on the other side of the field. I have heard some ex-players questioning why he didn’t demand to cover Brown, but I confess it would not a challenge I would fancy. I wasn’t expecting Kirk Cousins to maintain the form he had at the end of last season, but he will need to be more consistent if he is to help Washington get back to the playoffs.

I knew the Steelers were going to be scary once they got all their players back, but they didn’t even wait for that with a performance that underlines just how good Antonio Brown is, and the skill Ben Roethlisberger has in finding him deep. They already look like one of the teams to beat in the AFC so of course the Bengals are visiting next week in what should be one of the games of week two. Yes I am nervous already.

Los Angeles Rams 0
San Francisco 49ers 28

The 49ers surprised everyone by not just being competitive, but by shutting out the Rams offence as they ran out easy winner in this one. The fact that Dan wants me to watch the coaching tape to find out what happens says everything, but whilst I’m not totally changing my mind on how they will do this season, clearly they are going to be more competitive than I expected this season and I am curious to see how the team develop under Chip Kelly and what he has learned after his experience in Philidelphia.

The Rams didn’t even manage agricultural manure seven and nine football. The offence clearly sputtered, with some very worrying running figures for Todd Gurley stretching back to the tail of last season. The big question that is going to surround them is that the first round quarterback that they traded for didn’t even dress for this game. I am not actually totally against this, as they gain nothing by throwing Jared Goff in before he is ready, and everything to lose, but I’m sure no one will be happy about this state of affairs. We learned through Hard Knocks that the Rams’ defensive line coach is pretty terrifying, and so I’m sure they will be better next week. In fact, given the Rams will be playing their first game in LA, Jeff Fisher will be hoping for a big response from his players.

Finally let’s take a look at tonight’s game:

Jets @ Bills (-0.5)

With all that I have written above, I can only pick the Jets to win this one, especially getting half a point.

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Jets

The Season Starts, Panthers at Broncos, and Week 1 Picks

11 Sunday Sep 2016

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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Andy Janovich, Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, CJ Anderson, DeMarcus Ware, Denver Broncos, Devotae Booker, Greg Olson, Kelvin Benjamin, Luke Kuechly, NFL, Star Lotulelei, Thomas Davis, Trevor Siemian, Von Miller, Week 1 Picks

And so my offseason work meets the start of the regular season as I recap what I have been watching, the season opener and then pick the rest of the week one games.

I have been following the Broncos during the offseason, where their defence has continued to look good despite losing some players, and Trevor Siemian beat out Mark Sanchez and rookie Paxton Lynch to get the starting quarterback job. With the ongoing saga regarding Von Miller’s contract, the cutting of Mark Sanchez and Ronnie Hillman, GM John Elway has certainly not been afraid to make the big decision and whilst I think there will be some come down from last season with a seventh round pick starting under centre for the first time, I do think the Broncos will be competitive again this season.

The Carolina Panthers travelled to the Denver Broncos to open the season on Thursday, and in a sign of how Dan and my picks are likely to go, the Broncos won after the Panthers missed a last seconds field goal giving us our first losses of the season.

This ended up being a close game with the Panthers starting off well and going into the half with a ten point lead, but ultimately falling short as the Broncos came back in the second half. That the game was close with two such good defences should not be surprise, but I’ll start with the offences.

The Broncos offence looked surprising good for most of the game, although it seemed to function better between the thirty yard lines than it did at getting the ball into the end zone. For the most part Trevor Siemian didn’t look like a rookie quarterback, and certainly he was better than his stat line might suggest. However, whilst for the first interception Siemian failed to get the ball over Star Lotulelei on a screen pass, and the big defensive tackle tipped the ball up for Thomas Davis to make the interception, on the second interception he was hit by Kurt Coleman who had a free run at Siemian on a blitz and hit the QB as he threw enabling Bene Benwikere to intercept the ball. Yet the Broncos were able to move the ball throughout the game, particularly on the ground where CJ Anderson was able to rack up ninety-two yards on twenty carries. Certainly the rookies in the Broncos backfield will look back on their first NFL regular season carries differently with Devnotae Booker fumbling the ball and causing a turnover on his, whilst fullback Andy Janovich took his twenty-eight yards to score the Broncos first touchdown of the season. Even with his modest eighteen of twenty-six completions for one hundred and seventy-eight yards, there were good throws by Siemian and with the defence of the Broncos playing tough they will remain.

The Panthers meanwhile look like the same team as last year when running the ball, with Cam Newton gaining fifty-four yards to complement Jonathan Stewart’s sixty-four and Ted Ginn picking up twenty on an end-around carry. In the passing game Newton was happy to have Kelvin Benjamin back, connecting with him six times on twelve attempts as well as with Greg Olson for seven catches. However, Newton still doesn’t have the prettiest of throwing motions and took a couple of hits that would worry any coach. It is hard to read too much into how they are going to go this season as they were facing another strong Broncos defence, but they did give up three sacks and so the offence line might be a worry again at the tackle spot.

If the Broncos defence didn’t quite pick up from where they did last year, they were still very good with some familiar face making some key plays. They may have been a bit softer against the run, but both Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware got sacks and Chris Harris tipped and intercepted a ball in an impressively athletic play. In fact, there were no signs of Ware having any problems with his back despite what had been said in preseason as he bent low and got round the corner for his solo sack, and he also shared in a second later in the game. With a rookie quarterback, the Broncos will be leaning on this side of the ball and the running attack and for this game that certainly worked.

The Panthers defence looked solid but not spectacular, and whilst you could see flashes of Kuechly’s usual excellences, plus they did generate the interceptions I mentioned earlier, it was not exactly a dominant performance. The rookie corners seemed to hold up okay, but there will be tougher tests down the road and we will just have to see if this group can play up to the standards that were set last year.

Moving back from the opening game, I have two more teams to cover in terms of the preseason before moving on to our picks for the rest of this week’s games.

For the Cincinnati Bengals, apart from a couple of rookies getting injured, things seem to have gone relatively smoothly through the preseason, although AJ Green limping out of the week three game was very nerve racking. This may be misplaced confidence, but I have faith in the system and so despite losing two receivers that played a lot of snaps, the new receivers are already looking the part with Tyler Boyd seeming to fit in seamlessly and rookie free agent Alex Erickson looking effective both out of the slot and as a kick/punt returner, which led to long term Bengal returner Brandon Tate being cut when the Bengals were getting down to seventy-five. The defence is getting older, but there does seem to be youth waiting to come through, but I think the Bengals will be in the playoff hunt, and I just hope the steps Andy Dalton took last year were as much to do with his development as Hue Jackson’s coaching.

The Rams have had an offseason of upheaval as they move to LA and had the Hard Knocks crew filming them. It has not been a brilliant series, but the big worry for the Rams has to be that the first round quarterback that they traded up to get has not even won the backup job for the first game of the season. I am not against bringing on quarterbacks slowly, but this has to be a worry given all they gave up to get Jared Goff. The Rams defence looked to be coming together finally in game three of the preseason, and certainly I am expecting a monster year from Aaron Donald. However, whilst Todd Gurley looks to be a staple of the Rams’ offence, what will be key is whether some of the receivers can step up and offer more in the passing games than they have over recent seasons. I have quite liked the look of rookie receiver Pharoh Cooper, but with Tavon Austin seemingly more a gadget play threat than a true number one receiver, they will need more than a rookie showing flashes to improve that side of the ball. I think the Rams may well be heading for another battle to get above 8-8, but in a tough division they could easily fall short of the playoffs again.

And now on to the rest of my week one picks:

Buccaneers @ Falcons (-3.5)

The Falcons haven’t grabbed the imagination, and whilst I like the pedigree of their head coach in Dan Quinn, his side of the ball is not fixed yet and the move of Vic Beasly to strong side linebacker is troubling given that he was supposed to be a first round pass rusher. The offence has struggled for consistency since Matt Ryan lost tight end great Tony Gonzalez, but he does have one of the best receivers in the game in Julio Jones. However, Jones can’t do everything on offence, and the Falcons could do with lowering his workload as he is taking a ton of punishments with the number of catches he is making. They will hope that the signing of Mohamed Sanu will help with this, but the proof will be seen during the season.

The Buccaneers were so keen to keep continuity for their new franchise quarterback Jameis Winson that they fired Lovie Smith and elevated offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter to head coach. They have the prize for the worst draft pick when they moved up to draft a kicker in the second round, and he has already missed kicks in the pre-season, generating a lot of extra pressure for the young player. They will be hoping that the supposed better kicking and the improvement of Winston will be enough for them to win more of the close games they lost last season, but as ever only time will tell.

I like the Bucs on the road in this one to be competitive, and possibly even win so I have been tempted into backing them on the road thanks to the extra half point the Falcons are giving up. I hope I’m not mistaken.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Falcons

Bills @ Ravens (-3.5)

The Ravens have injury problems already at tight end, but still have a long way to go before they are as banged up as last season. I think this could be a trying season for the Ravens as there are sections of the team that are still old, but I expect them to have more wins that last season and they are never an easy opponent for anyone.

The Bills have been suffering the usual drama that seems to surround a Rex Ryan team, and with injuries to key rookies on defence just being the start to their problems, I have feeling the Bills will be missing the postseason again. I do like Tyrod Taylor, and think it’s likely that the Bill offence will be pretty good again, but whilst Taylor will want to beat the team he started with, I can’t see it happening.

Gee’s Pick: Ravens
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

Bears @ Texans (-4.5)

The Texans had a draft that was all about find other receiver to play across from DeAndre Hopkins to help him and free agent quarterback Brock Osweiler. The worry for Texans’ fans will be JJ Watt’s back injury, and how he will look in the early part of the season that he was not necessarily expected to see. That said, the word is that Jadeveon Clowney is looking the best he ever has for the Texans and they have to be hoping that without the quarterback carousel they had last season that a strong playoff push is possible.

The Bears are still a way away from such hope, and whilst I think they are heading in the right direction, I don’t think this season will see much of an improvement in terms of wins than last season. The defence is looking like it is beginning to shape up, but with a new offensive coordinator and the ever talented but interception prone Jay Cutler at quarterback, I’m not sure they have enough to cover this spread on the road.

Gee’s Pick: Texans
Dan’s Pick: Texans

Bengals @ Jets (+1.5)

The Jets have one of the older rosters in the league, and seemed to cost their starting quarterback a lot of practice reps in the offseason in a negotiating tactic that didn’t seem to net them much of a reduction in cost and has to be a bad decision overall. They still have a formidable defensive front, but I think they could slip as a team, particularly as the only AFC East team not to get a game against the Patriots whilst Tom Brady is suspended.

I still have faith that the Bengals opening up the season on the road can win this one despite them having to use new receiving options on offence, and I just hope this one doesn’t bite me for personal reasons.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

Browns @ Eagles (-6.5)

The Eagles have had a torrid offseason, culminating in the trade of their starting quarterback Sam Bradford to the Vikings last weekend. I think I can see what the plan is, and I am very much looking forward to seeing Fletcher Cox let loose in Jim Schwartz’s defence, but with Carson Wentz suddenly leap frogging Chase Daniels to start at quarterback, I think it could be a long season.

The Browns seem to have a renewed vigour with a new front office approach and Hue Jackson as their head coach. They have to be hoping that the Browns’ young players show enough to convince owner Jimmy Haslam to have some faith in the process and stick with it long enough for it to bear fruit.

I am definitely looking forward to this game, and certainly intend to watch it, and I think it will be much more competitive than this line suggests.

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Browns

Packers @ Jaguars (+4.5)

The Jaguars are all about this season, with Gus Bradley really needing to reward the Jaguars’ owner’s faith in him with at least a challenge for the playoffs. This is the team that keep getting tipped for a break out year, but with a string of moves and picks on defence to go along with a developing offence I can see it finally happening.

The Packers keep steady with their draft and develop philosophy, but the insistence on relying on receivers to get open with one on one routes last season was frustrating as they weren’t able to capitalise on having probably the best quarterback in the NFL. They look set to take the NFC North this year, but they will have their eyes on bigger prizes.

This is a big swing in points to the Jaguars, and whilst I think the Packers may well win this game, I just fancy the Jaguars to cover. This may bite me as I seem to remember this happening a lot with the Jags last year, but it hasn’t put me off in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Vikings @ Titans (+2.5)

The Titans are very much focussing on the running game, with the addition of DeMarco Murray and rookie Derrick Henry at running back, and announcing their offensive philosophy as exotic smash-mouth football. If they stick with Mike Mularkey as head coach then at least they will have a consistent plan with an offseason to implement it, and they will certainly hope the running game will help keep second year quarterback Marcus Mariota healthy. There have been some surprising names let go, but clearly Mularkey is focussing on running this team his way and only time will tell if this yields an increase in wins.

The Vikings must still feel they have the team to push for a Super Bowl, or they would not have traded a first round pick and anywhere between a fourth and a second round pick for Sam Bradford. They have a strong defence, and should have won their playoff game last year barring a missed field goal. Their new stadium will see a competitive season thanks to Mike Zimmer’s excellent defence, and he will keep this tem focussed despite losing their franchise quarterback to a horrible injury, but it will be an uphill battle all the way. Still I expect them to win an ugly game against the Titan, which will be something of a throwback given the likely focus on running the ball that both teams will display.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

Chargers @ Chiefs (-7.5)

The Chiefs defence looks to be struggling with injuries to their key pass rushers, but I still expect this team to at the top of the division, pushing for a playoff place and more. For all of his clock management issues, Andy Reid is a really good football coach and I expect this team to be there or there about come the end of the season.

The Chargers are not nearly as stable, and have not managed to win consistently despite having one of the better quarterback in the game. For a lot of last season their offence only functioned because of how quickly Philip Rivers could get rid of the ball, and with their first round pick holding out for nearly the entirety of the pre-season I worry about what kind of year Rivers will have in terms of wins.

I don’t think the Chargers are going to get off to a winning start, but I’m not sure the Chiefs will run away with this game either.

Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Raiders @ Saints (-1.5)

The big question f or me this year is whether the Saints defence can improve enough for them to be competitive, and whilst it will be hard for them to be as bad as last year, there were so many holes and it has been such a problem for the Saints that I see them falling short of the playoffs again this year.

The Raiders seem poised to make a push for the playoffs, and whilst I’m worried that this may be the same kind of hope as the Jaguars that doesn’t quite materialise, they have been drafting well and with some good free agent signings for the offensive line and defence, I do expect them to pushing for the playoffs and look forward to seeing if they get there or not. I do expect them to win this one though.

Gee’s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Dolphins @ Seahawks (-9.5)

The Seahawks look to be set for another strong season despite the defence losing more depth, and an offensive line that remains a huge question. The development of quarterback Russel Wilson will need to continue as he gets handed full control of the offence with the retirement of Marshawn Lynch, but certainly his form at the end of last season will give them hope.

The Dolphins come into this year with a more coherent plan for the offence, but the back seven of their defence worries me and I think they may well fall short of the playoffs this year. I’m picking the Dolphins to cover as the Seahawks are giving away a lot of points, but I don’t expect them to win and I think it could be a long season for the fans in Miami.

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Giants @ Cowboys (-3.5)

It might be time for Tony Romo to retire, but certainly Jerry Jones is having none of it, and at least in Dak Prescott they look to have a capable backup and very possibly a future starter. The defence is still a worry for me, but with that offensive line and Ezekiel Elliott the Cowboys will be looking to dominate in the running game and will give the Cowboys a fighting chance.

The Giants made a lot of moves to shore up their defence, which does not fill me with a lot of hope as the winners of free agency rarely seem to do that well when the season rolls around. This is one of those wait and see teams, but with the all the problems they had on the roster last season, I think there is more wrong than just Tom Coughlin who the owners were clearly pointing the finger at when they fired him and stuck with everyone else. I really think there is more to it than that.

We will have to see how this game goes, and I don’t feel that strongly, but I’m backing the Cowboy reluctantly at home as I just don’t trust the Giants.

Gee’s Pick: Cowboys
Dan’s Pick: Giants

Lions @ Colts (-5.5)

Everyone is expecting a better season for the Colts, but whilst I prefer the intentions of their draft, the line hasn’t necessarily gelled yet and I’m still not sure where the pass rush will come on defence or how they’ll cope without the injured corner Vontae Davis. I’m not saying there season won’t be better, but I’m certainly not ready to pencil them in for a division win just yet.

The Lions are a team in flux, but I quite like the direction of their offence with Jim Bob Cooter changing things when he became offensive coordinator last season, and I think the pairing of Golden Tate and Marvin Jones at receiver will do well even if no one can replace Calvin Johnson. The defence hopes to be healthier at defensive tackle, but I’m not sure how much of a push this team will make overall. However, I’m certainly not ready to back the Colts giving away 5.5 points yet.

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Colts

Patriots @ Cardinals (-5.5)

The Cardinals are in win now mode, and with the additions of Chandler Jones and Robert Nkemdiche they look to have an improved pass rush for a defence that already blitzed as much as anyone in the league. You know that a Bruce Arians offence will be taking plenty of shots downfield, and running back David Johnson will be looking to build on his excellent rookie season. I think they will be in contention at the end of the year, with the only questions being about keeping ageing quarterback Carson Palmer healthy and hoping there aren’t any big game legacies from last year’s playoff loss.

The Patriots are everyone’s tip to win the AFC East despite Tom Brady being suspended for four games. Certainly the addition of Martellus Bennett as a second tight end has excited people about the Patriots double tight end sets for when Brady returns. However, this is pretty much as tough an opening game for this team as they could have been set. I think that Belichick will win out in the end, but it is not unusual for his teams to start slow and with a quarterback making his first NFL regular season start I think the Patriots start off with a loss, even if there won’t be too many more to follow.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Steelers @ Washington (+3.5)

Washington really gained momentum at the end of last year to win their division, and with another solid draft and the signing of Josh Norman, I expect them to be competitive in their division again this year as Kirk Cousins tries to earn himself a franchise quarterback’s contract.

When the Steelers have all their players on offence they are truly terrifying, and their defence is beginning to take shape, but I do think the suspensions will take their toll early. They could easily make me look stupid as Antonia Brown is the best receiver in the game, but I’m not sure that they will run away as winners in this game and so I’m taking the home underdog to cover in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Rans @ 49ers (+2.5)

The 49ers woes will continue into this year if for no other reason than it takes time to rebuild a roster. It will be fascinating to see how Chip Kelly does and what he has learnt from what happened in Philidelphia, but I could very easily see the 49ers picking first at next year’s draft.

The Rams will want to be making fans in LA by winning, and despite the worries that I laid out earlier, I think that they will win their opener in San Francisco.

Gee’s Pick: Rams
Dan’s Pick: Rams

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