Category Archives: Thursday Night Football

Why Can’t We Have Nice Things?

14 Thursday Dec 2017

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With the loss of Carson Wentz for the rest of the season it really feels like NFL fans just can’t have nice things this year.

That said, as upsetting as it was to have the team with the best record in the NFC lose its starting quarterback, it still pales into insignificance when compared to the spinal injury the Steelers’ linebacker Ryan Shazier picked up the week before.

I was travelling to and from Newcastle last week and so didn’t really have time to write about what happened during the Pittsburgh Steelers Monday night clash with the Cincinnati Bengals in the right kind of detail and I’m still not entirely sure what the correct thing is to say. I didn’t enjoy watching the game, there was a sense of inevitability about the Steelers come back and I am very bored of the lack of discipline and the chippiness in these games. Particularly on the Bengals side but the sight of the various hits that concussed players given what had happened to Shazier was difficult to watch. We know the game is dangerous, and at some level we have to make peace with that, but that Monday night game showed a side of football that has to brought under control and that doesn’t include the play where Shazier was hurt.

To be honest I just want him to be okay, and I don’t mean a return to football. Given that the man had spinal stabilisation surgery, I want him to be able to walk around and lead his life.

Last week also saw firings in New York and Cleveland with the Giants clearing house when they fired both GM Jerry Reese and head coach Ben McAdoo whilst the Browns let go of Sashi Brown.

There have been problems with the roster for a while in New York and so letting go Jerry Reese despite him being involved in two Super Bowl wins but there is talent to build upon for whoever takes over, although the issue of a quarterback will be the major headache.

As for the Browns, I don’t really know how much was the quarterbacks they didn’t take in the draft; the failure of the AJ McCarron trade due to the paperwork not being sent in on time; or the relationship with the rest of the front office, owner, and head coach Hue Jackson who is apparently safe for now but some mix of these things got Sashi Brown fired and they have already replaced him with John Dorsey. Only time will tell how much this will affect their approach, but I would imagine something will happen around the quarterback position ahead of next season. I’m also not entirely sure that Hue Jackson will survive, particularly if the Browns fail to register a win this season despite his current vote of confidence.

I really hope that things turns round for the Browns, they have such a loyal fan base despite the woeful performance of the team for a number of years.

And now a recap of the week fourteen picks and tonight’s game.

Gee:      Week 14   8-8                     Overall   117-92
Dan:      Week 14   6-10                  Overall   108-101

Broncos @ Colts (+2.5)

This not exactly a game to set pulse rates racing and with the Denver Broncos winning their first game since their week five bye on Sunday visiting the 3-10 Indianapolis Colts. The Broncos have not won on the road all season so is this the week that they start? I don’t know is the honest answer and whilst I could regret this, I’m reverting to home team Thursday night rules and grabbing a couple of points unenthusiastically although I am curious to see how this game plays out.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Quick Thursday Night Pick

07 Thursday Dec 2017

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Only time for a quick pick tonight so here are the results from last night and what I think might happen.

Gee:      Week 13   12-4                   Overall   109-84
Dan:      Week 13   8-8                     Overall   102-91

Saints @ Falcons (+0.5)

I’ve said this about Thursday night games a few times this season, but this really should be a good game. The New Orleans Saints have been transformed this year and stand atop of the NFC South as they welcome their division rivals the Atlanta Falcons who have struggled at various points through the season but are still 7-5 and in the playoff hunt. However, if they are to stay there then the Falcons can ill afford to lose this game and with them being at home as well as desperate I am going to tip the Falcons to edge this one out although I would not be surprised if the Saints won. Certainly that would please Dan.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Trying to Make a Plan Stick

30 Thursday Nov 2017

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A combination of the Thanksgiving games and an ill-timed support call at the weekend got me thinking about the obsession with routine that many NFL head coaches seem to have.

I think the desire for routine was part of the reason that John Harbaugh was comfortable in complaining about his team’s trip to London earlier this year.

An NFL head coach is used to micromanaging. I’m sure there has to be a degree of flexibility built in, but a coach has his plan for the entire season prepared before it starts in terms of practise, travel, and everything it takes to play a game of football. This is much easier to implement if you are working in a familiar routine, particularly if you have a heavy schedule and any NFL coach, yet alone the one in charge of an entire team works an awful lot of hours.

One of the reasons that Bruce Arian’s is a favourite coach of mine is that he often talks about how important it is to maintain a work life balance and that if he hears of any of his coaches missing an important family occasion then he’ll fire them. However, in the ultra-competitive world of professional sports people are always looking for advantages and with the complexity of tactics that make up an NFL game plan you can see why coaches put in as many hours as they do.

I know from personal experience how if you don’t have a focussed plan, that you can spend a huge amount of time watching the coaching tape of a single game, and comparatively I know nothing about football. Not that I let that stop me from commenting about the game or coaching.

However, I don’t pretend that coaching is easy, and whilst I can and do share frustrations or wonder what was going on, something I heard Michael Wilbon of ESPN say really struck a chord with me.

He was talking about coaching and given how prepared these coaches are, the hours they put in, what interference and distractions must be going on for them to make the decisions they do.

Take for instance the Buffalo Bills. They have a quarterback in Tyrod Taylor that the franchise has not committed to, and with the GM and coaching regime change and apparently there still being no faith you begin to wonder what influence the owners are having. Certainly the decision to start Nathan Peterman ended badly and with Taylor back under centre this last week, the Bills were able to beat the Kansas City Chiefs.

I had a lot of time for what Sean McDermott did this season with a team that had move a lot of players on yet was still found a way to win, but for many the decision to sit a quarterback who didn’t turn the ball over for a rookie because Peterman gave them the best chance to win was fireable given how badly Peterman played. However, with a win McDermott at least stabilised the situation and what we don’t know is how many people were involved in the decision, but when it comes to a starting quarterback I wonder how many voices are involved.

Certainly with the announcement that Eli Manning is to have his starting streak of over two hundred games for the New York Giants ended because he is being sat for Geno Smith I start to wonder who was involved in the decision apart from Ben McAdoo. I’m not saying that anyone else told him to do it, but with all that is going on in New York, with the press being less than impressed with McAdoo’s handling of the team – what influenced him? The play of Eli Manning has not looked that great for a while now, and predates the loss of Odel Beckham earlier in the season, but what is he hoping to gain with his two time Super Bowl winner on the side lines.

I wonder how you get into the position to keep making the best decisions. How you have to be in lock step with all the people round you. I know how some approach it as coaches like Pete Carroll or Bruce Arians will write a book or talk about it, whilst someone like Bill Belichick reveals as little as possible.

However, I can easily see how being in the head coach’s office of an NFL franchise could be very different once you’re in there to how even an experienced coaches thought it might be.

And how only a tiny change could derail the best laid but highly complex plans.

So we move to a game featuring a coach who very much appears to be on the hot seat after a quick glance at last week’s results..

Gee:      Week 12   8-8                     Overall   97-80
Dan:      Week 12   9-7                     Overall   94-83

Washington @ Cowboys (-1.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have really struggled over the last few weeks, and the reaction of their coaching staff does not inspire confidence with a lack of creative scheming not helping a group of skills players who have not been getting it done with Ezekiel Elliott’s suspended. It maybe that Washington are so injured that they are going to lose on the road, but with both teams having played on Thursday of last week, I’m backing Washington in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

The Turnaround Three

16 Thursday Nov 2017

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It has been a season of confusion and narrative, but with so much discussion about off field matters (that are covered again in this week’s podcast) I thought I would stick to matters on the field in this blog.

With so many high profile stars injured and several teams turning their fortunes round from last season, there are new teams and faces challenging for the playoffs so I thought I would take a look at three of these teams.

The most obvious turnaround belongs to the LA Rams who currently stand atop the NFC West division with a 7-2 record having racked up three more wins than they managed all of last season. The changes that rookie head coach Sean McVay has already brought to this team have had a dramatic effect on an offence that has already surpassed the points they put up in the entirety of last season, but it is also an indictment of the previous regimes that not only have the Rams won seven games this year, but the other quarterback who suffered on the 2016 team has already got six wins for himself in the eight games he has played for the Minnesota Vikings.

However, even if the turnaround in record is most impressive for the Rams, the team who lead the NFL with eight wins are the Philadelphia Eagles and this is one more win than they managed in total last season. There are some arguing that Carson Wentz is in the running for MVP, but what is undeniable is that the level of his play has improved and that this has brought the Eagles offence alive. The Eagles clearly believe they can make a strong push into the playoffs as they are still bringing in players to bolster their roster as they pick up injuries. The Eagles have a commanding position within their division and it would be surprising if they can’t convert this into a playoff run.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a less commanding position, but have already doubled their number of wins from last season and share the AFC South lead with the Tennessee Titan. They have the second rank defence by DVOA, which considering they have the thirtieth ranked rush defence is a testament to just how good their pass defence has been. The offence is limited and this is what could limit them going forward but they have just had their first three game win streak since 2013 and for the first time in many seasons they stand a chance of making the playoffs.

None of these teams even had a .500 record last season and in under a year they are seriously competing for a division title. There is a lot of talk of parity in the NFL, but these teams are demonstrating that in the NFL you can turn things round quickly, and I haven’t even mentioned the News Orleans Saints who have won seven straight after their own turn around on defence.

It would be great to see all of these teams hit the playoffs, and I would love for the Bills to make it as well given how long their fans have been waiting for a playoff run but I can see it slipping away. The difference this season is that I genuinely feel like the Bills are building something for the future even if they do miss the post season this year.

I look forward to seeing how all of them do this week.

Gee:      Week 10   8-6                     Overall   82-65
Dan:      Week 10   6-8                     Overall   76-71

Titans @ Steelers (-7.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are making harder work of games than they really should given the talent on their roster and they certainly shouldn’t have needed a fourth quarter comeback to beat the Colts by three points on Sunday. This week they welcome a Tennessee Titans team who have quietly dragged themselves to a 6-3 record and a share of the AFC South lead. It has to be said that there did not appear to be any lingering problems with Marcus Mariota’s hamstring as he ran through the Bengals defence. I’m not confident that the Titans will win given they had to score in the last minute to beat the Bengals last week, but I can’t quite bring myself to pick the Steelers giving eight points and I do fancy the Titans to make a game of it.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Halfway Through the Season

09 Thursday Nov 2017

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So this could be a giant mistake, but with week nine in the books all teams will have played half of their fixtures and so here is a single sentence round up of the season so far for each team:

Arizona Cardinals

Long term injuries have derailed the Cardinals’ offence so their season now rests on how far a thirty-two year old running back can carry them.

Atlanta Falcons

We’re not sure how much is Super Bowl hangover and how much is the new offensive coordinator but the Falcons are struggling and need to turn it round soon if they are to get back to the playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have one of the largest injury lists in the league, but the real issue is the offence and how badly Joe Flacco is underperforming compared to his contract.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills are performing much better than I expected thanks to Sean McDernott and his coaching staff, but with two games against the Patriots and a trip to Kansas City to face the Chiefs the Bills face a tough road if they want to make the playoffs.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers defence seems to take care of itself, particularly when Luke Kuechly is on the field, but the offence has not been consistent and needs to solidify if they want to make the most of a good 6-3 start.

Chicago Bears

The Bears have wedded themselves to a tough defence and running game, which was enough to get them three wins but it feels like something has to change for the Bears to break into the playoff hunt next season.

Cincinnati Bengals

It feels like the end of an era in Cincinnati where a team hamstrung by its offensive line has fallen back rather than recovered from last season’s down year.

Cleveland Browns

The hope of the offseason has dimmed as things have keep going wrong for the Browns but with the front office and coaching staff both having problems and not in lock step it feels like the promising approach is stalling and the question is will the owner lose faith with GM, head coach, or both.

Dallas Cowboys

All the headlines belong to Ezekiel Elliott but for me perhaps the most impressive thing is the way the Cowboys defence is playing and the job Rod Marinelli is doing as defensive coordinator.

Denver Broncos

The defence still has the talent but problematic quarterback play behind an offensive line that still doesn’t inspire confidence seems to have doomed the season and leaves some real questions for John Elway to answer.

Detroit Lions

The Lions were never going to be able to replicate the number of close, come from behind wins they had last season but with a good run in the second half they could be fighting for a wildcard spot.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers’ season looks to have fallen apart when Aaron Rodgers went down, which seems to have demonstrated precisely how good the rest of the roster is and what a difference an elite level quarterback can make.

Houston Texans

The Texans have endured many key injuries this year but as sad as everyone was when Deshaun Watson tore his ACL in practise, it looks like the Texans finally have their quarterback of the future and how scary could this team be next year with a bit of injury luck.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have made the right decision in sitting Andrew Luck but the people questioning Luck’s toughness should think about what their talented quarterback has fought through in the last couple of years, and then be quiet.

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars play defence, run the ball, and it’s working for them.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs’ offence continues to roll despite teams working out that zone defence does slow them down, but the problem is the defence and how much it is beginning to miss Eric Berry.

LA Chargers

The Chargers are lurking after a bad start and will be hoping to turn things round in the second half of the season but it must be miserable playing in such a small stadium that is still full of opposition fans.

LA Rams

What a difference a year makes with Sean McVay surely in contention for coach of the year the Rams have established themselves as serious contenders and look destined for the playoffs.

Miami Dolphins

A topsy-turvy season that has seen two offensive shut-outs, a star running back trade, and a lot of travel, but we’re waiting to see if Adam Gase can pull things together in the second half.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings keep rolling despite the turmoil at quarterback thanks to a really good defence, and a head coach who I never wanted to leave the Bengals.

New England Patriots

The Patriots somehow lead their division despite a defence which has been rooted round the bottom of the league by DVOA as apparently the combination of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady really can overcome nearly anything.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints have finally managed to turn their defence round and in doing so look very competitive, and with Drew Brees they could cause real problems in the playoffs as long as they’re not bitten by the injury bug. Fingers crossed.

New York Giants

The Giants look to be falling apart around Ben McAdoo with the end of Eli Manning’s career looming and you have to think there will be changes in the offseason.

New York Jets

The Jets are playing so much better than anyone expected and this is largely thanks to a great coaching job by Todd Bowles, although this may hurt their chances of securing a quarterback for the future if they were planning to do this in the draft.

Oakland Raiders

I am bemused by the Raiders who seem to struggle except when I watch them play and so I don’t know if their offence is good enough to overcome a defence that is currently ranked last by DVOA.

Philadelphia Eagles

The class of the league so far go into their bye week with an 8-1 record and talk of second year quarterback Carson Wentz being a contender for MVP – what more could you want?

Pittsburgh Steelers

There may be questions over Ben Roethlisberger’s form, but with Le’Veon Bell and a strong defence the Steelers are running away with the AFC North and look to be one of the contenders in the AFC.

San Francisco 49ers

We always knew this was going to be a big project but the other winless team in the NFL are worse than I was expecting and fans will be anxious to see if Jimmy Garoppolo is their quarterback of the future.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are still a tough out and I wouldn’t write them off despite their defence sliding slightly but surely at some point they have to do something about their offensive line?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs season has crumbled with Jameis Winston sitting through injury and a defence that is ranked thirtieth by DVOA, it is hard to see anything other than some big changes next offseason given the expectations coming into the season.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans keep grinding despite Marcus Mariota being hindered by injury, and he is a different quarterback when his mobility is limited, but they are still in the hunt for the playoffs.

Washington

With the divisional losses they already have I think the playoffs are out of reach but this team has been playing hard despite the injuries, I just wonder what the long term plan is having lost both starting receivers last offseason and with Kirk Cousins likely on his way next year.

Gee:      Week 9   8-5                       Overall   74-59
Dan:       Week 9   8-5                       Overall   70-63

Seahawks @ Cardinals (+6.5)

The Seattle Seahawks are still a very up and down team and so whilst they should beat the Arizona Cardinals, this is a lot of points to give up to a home team on a Thursday night. I don’t know how long Adrian Peterson can sustain the kind of workload he was given last week, or if three days of recovery will be enough, but I still fancy the Cardinals to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

What Do They Want?

02 Thursday Nov 2017

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And so the NFL circus continues with the trade deadline generating more trades than usual, as well as the continuing saga of the Ezekiel Elliot suspension. More important though is the swirl of stories that continue to surround the ongoing player protests.

Such is the tumult that there are now questions beginning to be asked about whether Rodger Goodell will keep his job. It is hard as an outsider to speculate, but the fact that there was a conference call of seventeen team owners hosted by Jerry Jones to discuss Goodell’s contract extension seems to indicate that there is absolute support.

The curious thing about this to me is that whilst I have many criticisms of the way Goodell has approached his tenure as commissioner, the handling of the player protests is not one of them. It seems as if there is a section of owners who want the problem to go away as it causing them financial problems and they are concerned that Goodell has failed to solve the problem. The difference with this one compared to the other problems Goodell has created is that this one is apparently touching the bottom line.

However, I’m not sure that this is one is solvable. The number of players protesting during the anthem was relatively small until President Trump decided to raise it in a speech. There was plenty of work going on behind the scenes, but Trump’s decision to make it a focus and the Vice President’s stunt of leaving the game fanned the flames and for many successfully framed this as matter of patriotism and respect for the armed forces rather than a discussion about social inequality.

The problem is that there are a wide group of players with different reasons for protesting, and whilst I find it positive that discussions between the league and players are occurring, there is no unified force and so it may be hard to get everyone to stand in return of programs being discussed. However, any attempt to force the players to stand is only going to inflame the situation.

I don’t have any sources or a transcript so I can’t know the context of the Houston Texans’ owner Bob McNair when he said, “we can’t have the inmates running the prison” which he has apologised for and said was never meant literally. It has been suggested it was in reference to the leagues office rather than players and league employee Troy Vincent sought an apology at the time. What did happen was that around forty of the Texans knelt during the anthem at the weekend and a number of people have commented that this has revealed McNair’s true feelings.

Given the complexities involved, and how difficult it will be to solve, I’m not entirely sure what some of the owners are expecting – for once they are facing a problem that can’t be solved by throwing more money at it. This is a group of powerful individuals used to getting their own way but perhaps they are going to find there are limits after all.

There is no good way to segue way from such weighty topics to a picks competition, so here is our overall record and picks for tonight.

Gee:      Week 8   6-7                       Overall   66-54
Dan:      Week 8   9-4                       Overall   62-58

Bills @ Jets (+2.5)

The Buffalo Bills travel to face the New York Jets, and this should be a competitive game. The Jets have played tough all year, but are welcoming a Bills team who have found their own formula under new head coach Sean McDermott and are coming off an impressive win against the Raiders. However, the Bills have only won one game on the road so far this season and in a divisional game they might find the going tough. However, I think they are the better team and so whilst I am tempted by the points given to a home team on a Thursday night, I’m going to back the Bills to win this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

The Way Forward

26 Thursday Oct 2017

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It was a frustrating weekend for me as a Bengals fan, with a competitive game in the first half dwindling into failure as the Bengals offence stalled once again. We are still in the first half of the season but the 2-4 record feels very different to the 3-3 that was possible with a win. On its own it was not a particularly bad loss, the Bengals were playing one of the best teams in the AFC rounding into form and playing at home, but the frustration of a division loss seemed to signal the final death knell for any hope of a turnaround. That’s not to say that the Bengals can’t salvage something for themselves, but it feels like this cycle is done and although there are young developing players, particularly on defence, the offence continues to need work and I don’t see how things turn round this season. The offensive line just wasn’t good enough at the weekend, and whilst bad offensive lines are becoming more common in the NFL, the Bengals do not have a quarterback in Andy Dalton who can overcome this.

I am mindful of the change that Marvin Lewis has been responsible for over his tenure, and how the Bengals are no longer a laughing stock but it may be time for a fresh approach. Although a change doesn’t necessarily guarantee success and there is no shortage of teams struggling this season.

Still we are rapidly approaching the half way mark in the season and yet there seems to be a lot of teams for which we still have questions, two of which play tonight.

Gee:      Week 7   7-8                       Overall   60-47
Dan:       Week 7   11-4                     Overall   53-54

Dolphins @ Ravens (-3.5)

The quality of the Thursday night games have been better this season, with last week’s game being something of a cracker, but in this one we see one team with a backup quarterback visiting a team who may have their starter, but that starter looks like a shell of the QB who led the Baltimore Ravens to a Super Bowl win.

The Ravens have a huge injury list so their record may be understandable, but right now they are struggling and whilst the Miami Dolphins have not looked good doing it, they are on a three game win streak. We get to see how Matt Moore will do on a short week, but this line is just that bit too much for me to back the Ravens to cover. This could be a big mistake on a Thursday night game, but I am going to back the road team to at least be within four points.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Existing in a World of Flux

19 Thursday Oct 2017

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It was another week of unpredictable results that saw the New York Giants win their first game of the season on the road and the injury of another of the NFL’s marketable stars with Aaron Rodgers going down with a broken collar bone.

There has been some contention that it was a late hit on Rodgers by Vikinings linebacker Anthony Barr and that he drove Rodgers into the ground. To me it looks like he took a step and made a form tackle. It is a big blow to the Packers and the league to lose a player of Rodger’s standing, but in this instance I think it was a football play.

The continuing narrative surrounding the league is a worry about marketing and viewing figures as well as playing standards. Yes we are seeing a generation of quarterbacks who we are very familiar with come towards the end of their career or retire, but with players like Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott and emerging rookie Deshaun Watson I would not give up on the young group of quarterbacks just yet. And that’s ignoring the future years of Russell Wilson and the aforementioned Aaron Rodgers who should have some very good seasons ahead of them.

I am also not so worried about viewing figures given that no one seems to be able to take into account for more fractured way people watch television and sport. The American ratings don’t take into account those watching digitally, so a decline should be taken with a pinch of salt.

The participation levels in youth football however, must be monitored, but given all that we are learning about head injuries it would be a good thing to delay the playing of tackle football until children are big enough. The big change will be when a test for CTE that can be performed on players whilst they are still alive is available, and this is when the seismic changes could take place.

The NFL is heading into a period of flux, and yes I do think the NBA can challenge them with their marketable stars who are not hidden behind a helmet. However, the intricacies and skill of football are still as interesting as ever.

There are things that are affecting the quality of play in the collective bargaining agreement. Maybe coaches do need more practice time, but the days of two a days and endless hitting are behind us. It will require innovation and insight, something that has repeatedly occurred in the league but usually though the vision of a single coach or owner and then picked up across the league.

There will be much to discuss when the next CBA is drawn up, but it would help if the process was less adversarial. I really don’t think it is good for the sport that the relationship between the players union and the league is so fractious. However, it is interesting that at the league meeting this week that despite the comments on the anthem in Roger Goodell’s memo, the focus in the meeting was on what the league could do to further the players who are protesting agenda. This strikes me as a more productive route than demanding players stand for the anthem, although I’m sure as the discussions progresses that they will circle back to tackle that topic.

Still, it useful to remember that even for a sport as conservative as American Football, the world is a place of constant flux and for the league to survive it will have to find a way of existing in that flux.

Not so very different to the rest of us.

Gee:      Week 6   7-7                       Overall   53-39
Dan:      Week 6   7-7                       Overall   42-50

Chiefs @ Raiders (+2.5)

The Oakland Raiders’ offence has just not come together this season, and whilst I like the signing of NaVorro Bowman to bolster the Raiders’ linebacker group, I’m not sure it is enough to help them hang with Kansas City Chiefs’ offence. The Raiders will be desperate for a win to rescue their season but even as a home underdog I can’t pick them in tonight’s game, although it would not exactly surprise me if they were to win.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

A Quick Thursday Night Pick

05 Thursday Oct 2017

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So we have reading the NFL quarter pole, barring the two teams who are behind a game, and what we have mostly learned is that there are no obviously great teams this year. The Kansas City Chiefs are looking very good and are the only unbeaten team left in the league, but they have looked vulnerable at times.

In fact, that sort of sums up the league at the moment. The short term troubles surround the league trying to find a balance with the players on activism and how to allow players a voice without them upsetting a large section of their fans.

More disturbing to me is the report regarding Aaron Hernandez’s brain, which showed that he had severe case of CTE. In fact his brain looked more like a player in their sixties, and whilst it would be unwise to extrapolate too much regarding his behaviour and the injury, the degree of injury is very worrying.

So hits like that which happened to Devantae Adams last week on Thursday night football become tricky to deal with. The player has been suspended for a game, but whilst some are saying Danny Trevathan should be suspended for longer. The players seem to feel it was an unfortunate football play and that there was not intent. The problem is, they well could be right, and the players do know the risks to an extent, but that concussion is going to have an effect on Adams’ life and the truth is we don’t know how bad. There is talk that there may be a protein that can be used as a test on living players to see if they have CTE, and while the more we know the better in the long run, no one knows where the league will go with this information if it does become available.

It is a strange time to be a football fan and it doesn’t look if that is going to stop any time soon.

Gee:      Week 4   11-5                     Overall   36-28
Dan:       Week 4   10-6                     Overall   30-34

Patriots @ Buccaneers (+5.5)

This looks like a winnable game for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but their record concerns me. The New England Patriots are currently ranked bottom in the league by defensive DVOA and managed to make a moribund Panthers’ offence look good last week. If your offence can score thirty points on the Panthers then you should win the game, but the Patriots defence could do nothing to stop Cam Newton marching his team down the field to get in range for a game winning field goal.

On a short week there is not a lot of time to sort the communication issues that appear to be part of the problems. The Buccaneers’ defence has been pretty banged up, but I would hope that at home the Bucs can keep this game closer than six points, and so whilst I don’t feel good about it, having lost twice backing the Patriots to cover, with them being on the road on a Thursday night I’m taking the home underdog.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

We Don’t Know What We Don’t Know

28 Thursday Sep 2017

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The weekend saw a number of statements and responses to Donald Trump’s rhetoric about disrespecting the flag across the weekend’s NFL games, and several tight finishes. I will pick up the actual football in a minute, but I feel I have to take a moment to broaden a little on what I wrote at the weekend given what happened before kick offs of the week three games.

The kneeling of Colin Kaepernick, and the other players was to protest social injustice and police brutality. This has been reframed as protesting the flag and anthem by those that object to these actions, and by Trump himself. The response from the NFL over the weekend sought to project unity against the criticism of Trump and to say we stand with these players using their first amendment rights, even if they don’t agree with the action themselves.

This does not look to be a problem that is going away any time soon as the actions of the players and owners still upset people, and we shall have to see how things proceed. However, I do think it is important to keep stating the players are not protesting the flag or the anthem, they are making a statement on society.

And so on to the football, which saw multiple close game and signs that teams are finding their way a bit on offence. It was also a topsy-turvy weekend that saw several unexpected results including the Pittsburgh Steelers losing to the Chicago Bears and the Miami Dolphins losing to the New York Jets. The Baltimore Ravens travelled to London and were totally outplayed by the Jacksonville Jaguars, losing 44-7.

What does this tell us? The honest answer is that we don’t know what we don’t know – i.e. we only have a small sample size and until we get well into October we should treat our general feelings about a team with a pinch of salt. The Cincinnati Bengals have a better defence than their 0-3 record might indicate, but they have a huge amount of work to do if they want to finish with a respectable record, yet alone think about playoffs, which must surely be out of reach. There are plenty more teams like this and I am excited to take a closer look now that coaching tape has hit the European Gamepass site.

Schedule allowing I shall be taking a look at the coaching tape of the Tennessee Titans’ offence taking on the Seattle Seahawks’ defence to see how the managed to be effective against the scary Seahawks’ front seven.

And so onto tonights game, but before that here are the results of our picks last week.

Gee:      Week 3   7-9                       Overall   25-23
Dan:      Week 3   5-11                     Overall   20-28

Bears @ Packers (-7.5)

This is an interesting line given that the Green Bay Packers needed overtime to get a win against the winless Bengals on Sunday, and the Chicago Bears just beat the Steelers at home. The Bears are on the road, and I would expect the Packers to find a way to win. However, given their continued injury problems I can’t quite bring myself to back the Packers to win by eight. I may well suffer from the stupidity of picking against Aaron Rodgers at home for a second week in a row, but that’s what I’m going to do.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bears