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Week Five: Cardinals at 49ers

09 Sunday Oct 2016

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San Francisco 21
Arizona Cardinals 33

In a sometimes hard to watch game the Cardinal ran out eventual winners through a combination of taking advantage of turnovers and being more successful at getting to the quarterback.

It feels strange to say, but the offences in this game were eerily similar at times with strong running games and only one effective receiver but there were differences. The 49ers managed to rack up a lot of yards on the ground through a combination of effective straight ahead running by Carlos Hyde who ran for seventy-eight yards off twenty-two carries whilst Blaine Gabbert ran for seventy yards himself, including a quarterback keeper for a touchdown. However, Gabbert was only able to find receiver Jeremy Kerley consistently in the passing game, and Gabbert finished the game with an anaemic one hundred and sixty-two yards and two interceptions to one touchdown. He also spent a lot of time escaping from the Cardinals pass rush and yet still was sacked seven times, yet there were several long passes that Gabbert plane missed and it would not be a surprise if at some point if this inaccuracy loses him the starting job.

The Cardinals defence is still not where it was last year, with Tyrann Mathieu still coming back from his knee injury of last season and not looking himself, although the pass interference penalty that was called against him in the second half was very soft. However, the Cardinals were able to get consistent pressure with Markus Golden getting another two sacks to take his season total to six, and Calais Campbell adding an interception off a tipped pass to his two sacks. However, there are still questions in coverage opposite Patrick Peterson even if Marcus Cooper did cut under a route very nicely to get his interception. They got away with it in this game because the 49ers were unable to exploit open receivers when the opportunity presented itself but they will need to continue to improve if they are to get where they want as a team.

The Cardinals offence was struggling even before Drew Stanton was made starter through Carson Palmer’s concussion, particularly with both their starting guards being injured, but at least Stanton gave them a clean game with no interceptions and two touchdowns. However, he only threw for one hundred and twenty-four yards, most of them going to Larry Fitzgerald who looked as good as ever being constantly available in the passing game and doing his usual good job of blocking when required. Stanton was not as obviously inaccurate as Gabbert, and he threw a number of typical Bruce Arians’ long pass attempts, but could only connect on one to Fitzgerald. However, as good as Fitzgerald was, David Johnson was the other star for the Cardinals as he ran for one hundred and fifty-seven yards on an average yards per carry of over 5.5 and scoring two touchdowns.

The 49ers defence did a good job of breaking up long passes in this game, their secondary remaining close enough to the Cardinals’ receivers to break up plays and only allowing one long play when the corner covering Larry Fitzgerald slipped allowing him to score a twenty-nine yard touchdown. However, they were neither able to get enough pressure on Drew Stanton nor stop the run game, and whilst they did make the occasional good play behind or at the line to stop the run, overall this was a worrying number of points to give up given how limited the Cardinals were on offence.

The Cardinals got a much needed win, but they have a lot of improving to do if they are to drag themselves back into contention in their division, which given that like many people I was expecting the Cardinals to push for a Super Bowl, is a pretty major shift in expectations. The 49ers kept this game close for a while, and ran the ball effectively but I am not sure if between their two quarterbacks they have enough play to build on, but the 49ers were always a long term project given the state of their roster.

Week Five Picks

09 Sunday Oct 2016

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Here are our week five picks, and I really hope I can start making my way back to a winning record overall.

Bears @ Colts (-4.5)

The Colts are the first team to waive their right to have a bye after playing in London as they wanted one later in the season and so welcome the Chicago Bears into Indianapolis this week. How they play will be a test that many with an interest in a London franchise will be watching carefully, the problem being that the Colts are not exactly playing well to begin with. The Bears picked up their first win of the season last week, with Brian Hoyer offering stability at quarterback, and I find it hard to believe that the Colts should be giving four and a half points to anyone so I’ll back the Bears to at least cover in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Patriots @ Browns (+10.5)

The Cleveland Browns look like they have found some skill players on offence, even if they have not managed to convert any of their performances into anything like a win. Everybody is expecting Tom Brady to walk back into the Patriots team and pick up where he left off last season, but with Rob Gronkowski playing limited snaps as a blocking tight end things might not be that straight forward. However, I’m not prepared to pick against them even after last week’s surprising loss to the Bills.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Eagles @ Lions (+2.5)

The Detroit Lions are really missing Ezekiel Ansah and DeAndre Levy on defence, and have dropped three straight games after their opening weekend win. The Eagles are coming off a bye, and I don’t see anything in this game that would make me hesitate in picking the Eagles. That is likely something that should worry the fans in Philadelphia.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Titans @ Dolphins (-3.5)

I am finding this game hard to pick as the Titans have not been playing well, and Marcus Mariota has not looked like he has progressed. However, their defence has been pretty solid and the Dolphins have really been struggling. I can easily see the Titans keeping this close, or the Dolphins using this as a get right game. In the end I think it might be close and that extra half point is leading me to take the Titans, which should be good news for Dan.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Texans @ Vikings (-6.5)

The Texans may sit atop the AFC South with their 3-1 record, but I think that visiting the Vikings in their new stadium is one of the tougher assignments in the NFL at the moment. The Texans are only one game into life without JJ Watt on defence for the season, but my real worry is Brock Osweiler who has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this season, and still needs time to settle into an offence that has a lot of new receivers. I think it could well come good for Osweiler in the end, but Minnesota is not the place to succeed without an established offence.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Jets @ Steelers (-7.5)

The Jets are really struggling, with Ryan Fitzpatrick really throwing too many interceptions in the last couple of weeks and the injuries racking up at receiver. Their problems in the secondary mean that their defence is ranked twenty-eighth in DVOA despite their fearsome front. The Steelers got back to winning ways last way in a big way, and the shuffling of their offensive line should worry me going into this game, but Ben Roethlisberger is such a tough quarterback to bring down, and with all the options he has in the passing game I see the Steelers having far too much for the Jets to worry them.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Washington @ Ravens (-3.5)

This is a really hard game to call for me as I don’t have strong opinion on either team. For Washington it seems that Kirk Cousins is beginning to find some form, whilst the Ravens are coming off their first loss of the season. With no game decided by more than six points this season, and their last two games won or lost by a margin of two points or less, I am picking based on the Ravens specialising in close games.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Falcons @ Broncos (-6.5)

I am really looking forward to this game as we are going to see one of the hottest offences in the league go up against one of the toughest defences. However, the Falcons defence is almost as bad as their offence is good, and playing on the road in Denver I still fancy the Broncos to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Bills @ Rams (-2.5)

The LA Rams stand atop of the NFC West with the Seahawks thanks to a defence that is playing well and an offence that is playing really badly. I don’t have a handle on how they are doing this, but that is fine because the Bills have broken my expectations by firing their offensive coordinator and winning two straight. To say I don’t know what to do in this game is an understatement, but given the gap in overall DVOA and the fact that I have more faith in Tyrod Taylor than Case Keenum I am going to pick the Bills and see how wrong I can be.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Bengals @ Cowboys (+0.5)

The worry for me is that Tyler Eifert now has a sore back and so is out of this game, so whilst the Bengals are coming of a Thursday night win and have had a little extra time to prepare, the red zone efficiency is still a big worry. They travel from Cincinnati to face a Cowboys team who don’t have the best home field advantage and have a rookie quarterback who has played very well but not faced a defence of the quality of the Bengals. I am concerned that this is a pick of fandom over reason but I am making it anyway.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Chargers @ Raiders (-4.5)

The Oakland Raiders have managed to get themselves three road wins with an offence that is playing as well as anybody and a defence that has really struggled. There have been a lot of struggles in the secondary and this week they go against one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Luckily for the Raiders, the Chargers have not put Rivers in a position to win often enough and the injuries have piled up again. It is likely the Chargers are going to be competitive again, which makes me hesitant to pick against them but I feel like the Raiders are heading in the right direction whilst I worry about how the Chargers are constructed and where they are headed.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Giants @ Packers (-7.5)

All the headlines surrounding the New York Giants are regarding Odell Beckham, and whilst these are justified to an extent, the balance of the offence and how the Giants were on defence did not inspire last week against the Vikings and this week they travel to face the Packers in Green Bay. The Packers are coming off a bye and it looks like Jordy Nelson is beginning to find his timing with Aaron Rodgers. The points worry me as the Packers let the Lions back into their week three game that they were leading 31-10 at halftime, but their defence has looked good, although they will miss Sam Shields, and so I’m nervously backing the Packers to win big here as I think they are the better team.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Buccaneers @ Panthers (-3.5)

The Panthers are without Cam Newton and have not been playing well this season, but Tama Bay are ranked near the bottom of the league in offence and overall DVOA, with a first year head coach that is struggling on the side of the ball he is responsible for. I am not sure whether the Panthers can turn their season round, but I think they should run out winners over the Bucs in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

The Futility of Making Picks but Doing It Anyway

06 Thursday Oct 2016

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Our picks have not been pretty over the last two weeks, despite me building a five point advantage over Dan, but in a way the failures highlights why I love the NFL and there is a reason we keep picking games.

One of the characteristic things about the NFL is through a combination of deliberate attempts to foster parity like the Draft and salary cap, and the unpredictable nature of a game with such large rosters and high injury rates, it is incredibly hard for a team to remain consistently good from season to season.

The Carolina Panthers, who last year went 15-1 in the regular season on the way to the Super Bowl have got off to a 1-3 start with Cam Newton picking up a concussion in the fourth quarter of their week four loss to the Atlanta Falcons. They Panthers were already well behind when Newton left the game as their defence that was such a strength last year gave up over five hundred yards of passing with Julio Jones accounting for three hundred of them as he caught twelve passes from fifteen targets and scored a touchdown. Some of this is likely down to the loss of not just Josh Norman, but Charles Tillman and the addition of two rookie corners, but team have not been in synch on offence either despite getting Kelvin Benjamin back from injury. The worry would be for me that one player was able to get so many yards individually and that the coaches didn’t adjust, but there appears to be a real problem in Carolina.

The Arizona Cardinals who played so well last season are, struggling as their offence is misfiring, and they have a fallen to a 1-3 record despite having one of my favourite head coaches in the league. Things are not clicking for them on offence in the passing game, although David Johnson looks to be continuing on from his excellent rookie season last year. However, a stumbling offence and a defence that hasn’t gelled yet do not win football games, and so it is now less surprising that the Patriots were able to beat them in week one despite Tom Brady being suspended.

Meanwhile, to counter this point the Denver Broncos are 4-0 despite losing Payton Manning and a number of defensive starters. The defence is still playing to a very high standard, whilst the offence is getting improved results from a very inexperienced starter in Trevor Siemian, and continued to do enough a win when he hurt his should and Paxton Lynch came into the game. They look to be up there again this season, and it certainly seems that John Elway has a clear idea of what he wants and this has been delivering results so far for him.

Of course, there are exceptions to every rule model of consistent success for the last decade has been the New England Patriots. They have started the season 3-1 despite Tom Brady’s suspension, but even the best teams don’t win all of their games and they came a cropper this week as having beat the Texans 27-0 in week three, they lost to the Bills 16-0. I wouldn’t bet against them this week with Brady returning, but we get these kinds of results fairly regularly and so it kind of makes a mockery of picking games each week.

There is a reason that I do it though, and not just because it gives me a something to write about. I don’t really like making predictions in terms of it proving one way or another that someone knows what they are talking about, it’s a standard requirement of covering sports, but at the end of the day if the outcome was so predictable there would be no reason to play the games. I like writing about what I have seen, what happened, and why I think it did.

However, picking games against the spread gives me a framework to look at each team, and helps highlight which teams I need to watch more. Of course you always tend to be interested in certain games each week, but by looking at what might happen, it keeps you focussed across the entire league and encourages sharpness, or in the last couple of weeks, distinctly dull. That said, I doubt many people were expecting for the Bills to beat the Patriots in the way they did, and that was far from the only surprise result.

So despite the poor record, we’ll keep ploughing on and hopefully things will improve, but you can never guarantee anything in the NFL.

Gee:      Week 4   6-9                       Overall   27-36
Dan:       Week 4   4-11                     Overall   22-41

Cardinals @ 49ers (+2.5)

The Cardinals are in real trouble, with Carson Palmer not playing well even before he got a concussion and on a short week he shouldn’t play. Against almost any other team with the start they have had, this would strongly tempt me to pick against the Cardinals despite by admiration for Bruce Arians, but even though they are on the road in San Francisco, I can’t bring myself to pick the 49ers to win, especially after losing Navorro Bowman last week on defence.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

AAF: JJ Watt vs the Patriots and Injury

02 Sunday Oct 2016

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This article has shifted on somewhat during the week as after listening to a podcast and hearing a discussion on the Patriots always scheming against JJ Watt well, I had already started working my way through the coaching tape when the news of JJ Watt’s re-injuring his back broke. He has already had surgery and will be out for the rest of the season, and I just hope he gets back to full fitness as he really is one of my favourite players in the NFL.

Looking at the coaching tape, Watt did indeed have a quiet game, although there were moments where he was still able to generate penetration, but was a step slow to get to the quarterback or stop a run. However a big reason for this was that the Patriots were playing him cleverly. Watt was frequently double teamed, but not in the over top way I have sometimes seen when other teams have played the Texans. More often than that though, the Patriots would run the ball away from Watt’s side of the line, or they would throw the quick pass before anyone would have been able to generate a pass rush. The Patriots would still block him with a single lineman, and sometimes Watt would shed the block to affect the play even if he didn’t get the tackle, but more often it was a case of avoiding Watt rather than over adjusting the blocking scheme.

I’m not going to speculate when or how Watt got injured, but I did notice there were a couple of drives where he was rested for a few snaps and then brought back, usually in passing downs. Whenever it was, the idea of trying to do anything on an NFL field with a back problem serious enough to be operated on a few days later is kind of terrifying. I tend to vacillate between an appreciation for the other worldly physical talents of NFL players, and remembering that they are only humans at another moment. The toughness so frequently displayed by NFL players has me bewildered given how painful I have found even relatively minor injuries.

There is all kinds of speculation about whether Watt came back to soon, or trained too much after the surgery are going round. It is hard to argue against this given that Watt re-injured his back, but given that Watt’s game is built around toughness and effort I would imagine most would struggle to hold him back.

The big question now is how healthy can he get, given that back injuries are notoriously difficult to recover from and you frequently hear about how people never feel the same after back surgery. The only real answer to that question is time will tell, but I like to think that he will make a full recovery as watching a potentially all-time great player in the making is an absolute pleasure. It’s possible that he will never reach those heights again, but I’m hoping that Watt proves the doubters, including me wrong on this one.

Week Four: Dolphins @ Bengals

02 Sunday Oct 2016

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Cincinnati Bengals 22
Miami Dolphins 7

I found Thursday night’s game slightly more tense than the reports afterwards would suggest, but I suspect that would be because despite the disparity in play, the Bengals were not able to put this game comfortably away and so as a fan I was rather anxious. In large part this was down to the continuing problems with the Bengals’ offence so in telling the tale of this game, I will start there.

The Bengals offence has not yet come together this season. Andy Dalton is playing well and his combination with AJ Green is as strong as ever, which this season is a blessing as there are problems elsewhere. This is perhaps unsurprising given that there are two new receivers, a lineman, and tight end starting for the Bengals under a new offensive coordinator. I would say that Ken Zampese is still finding his way as coordinator, and I would imagine the Bengals’ struggle to run the ball will be worrying him. The Bengals were more commited to the run in this game with Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard combining for thirty-one carries, but at roughly 2.9 yards per carry they were not able to be that effective except for the occasional good play. Luckily, AJ Green was back in his week one form going for one hundred and seventy-three yards and a touchdown as Andy Dalton posted another triple digit quarterback rating. In fairness, they Bengals were able to move the ball for large parts of the game, but the thing that is really killing them is their inability to finish in the red zone. The Bengals kicked five field goals in this game as they simply couldn’t punch the ball into the end zone, and this has to improve. Certainly getting their pro-bowl tight end Tyler Eifert back would help in this regard, but the slight miscues caused by so many new players on this side of the ball is really hurting the Bengals near the goal line.

The Dolphins defence certainly stacked up well against the Bengals in the running game, which given they were ranked twentieth in rush defence by DVOA coming into this game was an impressive effort. However, when you drop one of your big free agent acquisitions in Byron Maxwell and still allow AJ Green to get one hundred and seventy-three yards then you know there are problems. It will also be a worry that the line, which looked like being a strength of the defence going into the season was only able to get one sack against a team that had been struggling in protection for chunks of the season.

If the Dolphins defence was a worry, then their offence was surprisingly anaemic under the attention of Adam Gase who was seen as a solution to Ryan Tannehill’s problems. However, for large stretches they had gained less yards than AJ Green on his own, and if it hadn’t been for the desperate throw to Kenny Stills that yielded a seventy-four yard touchdown then things would have been properly embarrassing as this play accounted for a third of the Dolphins offence. The real problem here was that the Dolphins offensive line was missing Mike Pouncey and with tackles playing guard for them they were not match for the Bengals’ defensive line. It is really not often that you see a guard just blocked backwards into his quarterback for a sack as happened to Jermon Bushrod, but this is what happens when you play a career tackle at guard against one of the best interior pass rushers in Geno Atkins. I don’t want to put too much criticism on Adam Gase as the Dolphins don’t seem to like picking guards in the draft, but unless they can sort their offensive line problems then they are likely to keep having problems.

The Bengals defence had one bad play in this game, resulting in a long touchdown, and then were pretty dominant for the rest of the game. This started with the defensive line, which brought relentless pressure and largely bottled up the Dolphin’s running game whilst racking up five sacks against the pass. The Dolphins were never able to sustain drives, and apart from the sacks, the Bengals defence managed to force a fumble out of Tannehill and picked him off once. The return of Vontaze Burfict allowed them to rotate their linebackers more, and Burfict was talking after the game about being frustrated at not getting an interception but getting his game legs back under him. The defence has been strong for the Bengals all season, and has kept them in all the games they have played so far this season, if things did slip in the fourth quarter against the Bronocs.

The Bengals will be relieved to get out of a tricky start to the season 2-2 given that they’re still trying to get all the new offensive players on the same page, but they will need to as they push on into October. The defence should keep them in games, but things will need to develop if they are to push on for the playoff win that that they are so desperate for.

The Dolphins problems continue and they are struggling as much against the construction of their roster as they are the opposition. There is talent on this team, but it is very unevenly distributed across the roster, and until they address this I fear it will be hard for any coach, no matter how good they are, to turn this franchise into one that wins regularly.

Week Four Picks

02 Sunday Oct 2016

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Colts @ Jaguars (+2.5)

The first International Series game of the season sees the London Jaguars hosting the Colts, and desperately needing the win. There is an argument that the Jags will be more used to the trip to London, which gives them an advantage over the Colts with the travel, but whilst their defence does seemed to have improved, their offence has taken a step back. The Colts defence is not playing well, in fact a lot of their team around Andrew Luck is not coming together, and as a consequence I’m struggling to pick this game, but I trust Andrew Luck more that Blake Bortles for as long as he can stand up to the hits he is taking.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Panthers @ Falcons (+2.5)

The Falcons’ offence is much more balanced this year, with Matt Ryan looking more like the quarterback who used to lead this team to the playoffs regularly. However, the defence is not there yet, and so this game presents a good chance for the Panthers to get their offence right as they visit Atlanta. The injury to Jonathan Stewart is a worry for the Panthers, but the biggest problem for them on offence so far this season is that they have faced the Broncos and Vikings’ defences, which are looking like some of the best in the NFL and so I think that things will look much better for them this week in a game they really need to win to stop their pursuit of the playoffs going off the rails.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Bills @ Patriots (-6.5)

The Bills are coming off a win, whilst the Patriots are scrambling to find a healthy quarterback, and so if these were any other pair of teams the pick would be fairly straight forward. However, I have already been bitten twice by picking against Bill Belichick this season, and the Patriots home record is pretty formidable so I’m not prepared to pick against them covering this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Lions @ Bears (+2.5)

The Lions defence is a worry in this game, but the Bears are struggling on both sides of the ball and I think the Lions will win this game so hopefully this is a straight forward cover. This makes this a prime candidate for me getting it wrong, but I like what the Lions are doing on offence so I’m hanging my hat on that.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Browns @ Washington (-8.5)

I think the Browns are playing tough for Hue Jackson, and I am really not sure that Washington should be giving eight and a half points to anyone, and to prove it I am pick the Browns to cover against a Washington team that are not playing that well.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Titans @ Texans (-6.5)

The Texans have just lost JJ Watt, likely for the season, and are coming off an embarrassing 27-0 loss to the Patriots in week three. They do have some extra rest from playing in the Thursday night game, but whilst the Titans’ offence is not really coming together how they would like, the defence is playing pretty well and so I’m expecting another close game, certainly close than this line suggests. Whether Bill O’Brien taking over play calling duties on offence has enough of an effect to prove me wrong I don’t know, but I’ll pick on what I have seen so far.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Raiders @ Ravens (-3.5)

This is a tough one to pick as the Baltimore Ravens have quietly gone 3-0 with the defence really coming together, whilst the offence is lagging a little behind due to a combination of new receivers and Joe Flacco coming back from last year’s season ending knee injury. The Raiders offence has looked very good so far this season, in fact it is ranked number one in the league by DVOA, but the defence has struggled. I am really not sure how good either team is with the Ravens going unbeaten against an unimpressive series of teams, whilst the Raiders have gone 2-1 against a similarly uninspiring series of opponents. I’m going to grab the extra half point for the away team, and not feel very happy about it.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Seahawks @ Jets (+3.5)

The Seahawks are coming all across the country to play the Jets with an offensive line that has not looked good and an injured Russell Wilson. I have heard some argue that Wilson should be rested a week given how good the Jets front line is and how much the Seahawks rely on their quarterback’s mobility, and I’m not too sure I disagree with them. The Jets offence worries me going against yet another excellent looking Seahawks defence, particularly given the six interceptions Ryan Fitzpatrick threw last week, but in this game at home and getting three and a half points I’m backing the Jets.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Broncos @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

The Buccaneers’ head coach Dirk Koetter worries me, and even though they are in Tampa Bay, I don’t see the Bucs being able to live with a Bronocs team who’s defence is still up there with any in the league and an a offence that is doing more than last year when they won the Super Bowl.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Cowboys @ 49ers (+2.5)

The Cowboys have very possibly lost Dez Bryant for the week with a hair line fracture in his leg, but he has not been a focus for rookie quarterback Dak Prescott so far this season so I’m not sure it is a disaster. They are on the road this week, but I’m not sure that a trip to San Francisco is going to be too hard for them as the 49ers are still rebuilding the roster and every time I have picked them to keep a game close they have failed so I can’t pick them in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Rams @ Cardinals (-8.5)

This feels like a real trap game, as somehow the Rams are 2-1 despite a sputtering offence. I am really not so upset by them sitting their first round draft pick, but an offence that has Todd Gurley shouldn’t be ranked thirty-first by DVOA. However, whilst I want to pick the Cardinals as I think they are the better team with an excellent coach, things have not been clicking. Having lost to the Patriots in the opening game of the season, they have only won one more game with Carson Palmer struggling. Their offence has small margin of error on all the deep shots that they take, and I’m not at all confident about them covering this line. However, I do trust Bruce Arians and his staff, and they really need to turn this round to get back into the hunt for the division, but I trust them to win this game rather than cover this line. I’d quite like to be wrong on this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Saints @ Chargers (-4.5)

This is a battle of teams featuring excellent quarterbacks and very little else. The Saints defence is horrible again, and it feels like Drew Brees is pressing a little to try to make up for it. The Chargers however keep losing players, and I’m surprised to see them giving this many points. The Saints have only lost one game by five points or more, but I can’t bring myself to pick them in this one, but I do not feel confident about it.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Chiefs @ Steelers (-5.5)

The Steelers were looking like one of the best teams in the NFL until they lost a surprising game on the road in Philadelphia last week. The defensive is struggling to rush the passer, and the offence was surprisingly ineffective last week despite being pretty terrifying even before getting Le’Veon Bell back like they do this week. The Chiefs are struggling a little on defence to rush the passer as they are missing Justin Houston, but they are a well-coached team whose offence is continuing to play well under Andy Reid. Part of me wants to pick the Steelers as I think their offence is really going to come together now, but this is just too many points to give to a Chiefs team who I think will stay in contention if nothing else.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Giants @ Vikings (-4.5)

The Vikings are surprising everyone with how good their offence is going with Sam Bradford as their quarterback and without Adrian Peterson. Their defence is also playing even better than last year, and their new stadium is incredibly loud. The Giants are a better team than I was expecting, with the defence coming together with their free-agents and the offence developing. However, I have to back the Vikings in this one as I have more faith in what Mike Zimmer is putting together in Minnesota.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

The End of Streaks

29 Thursday Sep 2016

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It was a strange week three that saw many a game going differently to how people expected, and saw both Dan and I get murdered on our picks.

I wrote before making my picks last week that I expected more teams to get their first loss or win than continue their streaks, but it seems I picked all of the wrong ones and even in the games where I made the right choice, those choices were hardly convincing.

  • One of the unbeaten Texans and Patriots had to lose their first game, but whilst I acknowledged that Bill Belichick could win this game, I was not expecting the Patriots to manage a 27-0 win over the Texans.
  • The Cardinals went to Buffalo and lost, giving them a losing record and granting the Bills their first win of the season and resulting in the usual Rex Ryan bravado about facing the Patriots this week.
  • The Broncos went to 3-0 with an impressive win in Cincinnati where the Bengals defence stacked the box and dared Trevor Siemian to win the game with his arm, which he promptly did.
  • Even when I picked the Dolphins to beat the winless Browns in Miami and get their first win of the season, they needed overtime to do it and were nowhere near the ten point lead I needed for my pick to come through.
  • I expected the Viking to keep the game close against the Panthers, but instead ran out with a victory to remain unbeaten despite their injury troubles.
  • I didn’t see Washington beating a Giants team that were off to a great start, and yet they managed it whilst Odell Beckham grabbed headlines with another emotional outburst. This time the talented receiver lost a fight to a field goal net on the Giant’s side-line.
  • The Ravens went down to Jacksonville to face a desperate Jaguars team who were not desperate enough to avoid going 0-3, whilst the Ravens have the quietest unbeaten record in the league.
  • The Colts were one of only three games featuring a 2-0 or 0-2 record that I picked correctly, when they managed to get a win over the visiting Chargers who now have a perfect record of played three, lost three starters for the season to injury.
  • The Eagles put pay to the Steelers unbeaten record and kept their own, making the hype surrounding Carson Wentz even greater. I am so impressed with the Eagles coaching staff and the turnaround they have made so far, I’m really looking forward to seeing how this team develop over the rest of the season.
  • The Bears continued to lose, giving me my only other totally correct pick of week two where I got it right and the game went how I expected.
  • Finally, I was tempted into picking the Falcons because of an extra half point the Saints were giving up, but it turns out that the Falcons didn’t need these points as they ran out easy winners in a game of a lot of points.

Now, the wonderful thing about the NFL is that it is doing a sterling job of giving us talking points and excitement over the weekends, but boy is it making predicting what is going to happen difficult.

Still it is still early, and even though I will be writing my quarter poll summary in a couple of weeks, there are very few teams that should be truly despondent. However, whilst the Cleveland Browns were never likely to be looking for anything other than progress, and to their credit they are playing tough for the Hue Jackson in his first year, the Bears, Saints, and Jaguars are all in trouble. Only three teams have made the playoffs after starting 0-3 since 1990 when the playoff format was expanded to its current format. The Bears were expected to be rebuilding this year even if the injuries have made things worse than I was expecting, but the Jaguars were hoping to make the next step and push for the playoffs whilst the Saints have a Super Bowl winning quarterback who they have failed to surround with enough talent to push as far as they would expect.

The Jaguars are a particular disappointment as they head over to London to host the Colts this week, and already people are wondering if the London game is going to cost another head coach his job. Despite the warm feelings that everyone who has ever dealt with Gus Bradley seems to have, it is hard to see the Jaguars owner putting up with these results for much longer, and the Jaguars will need to turn things round quickly if Bradley is to keep his job past the end of the season.

And continuing the theme of disappointment, the big news of the last twenty-four hours is that JJ Watt has been placed on injured reserve as he having more problems with his back, and could possibly be gone for the season. I’ll write a little more about this over the weekend as I was already going through the coaching tape of Watt vs the Patriots, but hopefully he can make it all the way back as he is one of my favourite players to watch, but back injuries are hard ones to return from and people who’ve had such problems often say that they never felt the same.

The week five games look to offer plenty of excitement and intrigue, but already the attrition has really started to affect some teams, and it is an all too prescient reminder of how tough a game American Football is. I never want to see a player injured, but I will confess that part of me is curious to see what the Patriots would do if they were forced to play Julian Edelman as their quarterback.

Still, it is time to start looking at this week’s games, starting with tonight’s game that pits Dan’s Dolphins on the road against my beloved Bengals.

Our records are nothing to shout home about, particularly after our disastrous previous week, but I did manage to maintain my three point lead:

Gee:      Week 3   5-11                     Overall   21-27
Dan:       Week 3   5-11                     Overall   18-30

Dolphins @ Bengals (-6.5)

The Bengals lost their first home game of the season, in what has been a tricky open to the season, but if they can get back to 2-2 they can still hope to make a push for the playoffs. It appears that Tyler Eifert is not going to make it back for the game, but Vontaze Burfict comes off suspension and is likely to help the Bengals defence straight away. I think the Browns are going to give teams a tough game at the moment so I’m not reading too much into last week’s result for the Dolphins, but an overtime game before a short week road game is not the best prep, and I’m hopeful that the Bengals can win and hopefully find some rhythm on offence. For one game only I’m borrowing from Dan and picking blindly based on my fandom.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

AAF: Carson Wentz

25 Sunday Sep 2016

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So I thought I would take a closer look at Carson Wentz this week given that he has led the Eagles to a 2-0 stretch.

I’ve heard several people I respect break down what has been working for Wentz, but I will try to base this only on what I was able to see on tape for myself, but I suspect it will sound similar.

In a 29-14 road victory over the Chicago Bears, Wentz’s number did not look spectacular as he threw for a mere one hundred and ninety yards on twenty-one completion from thirty-four attempts with one touchdown and no interceptions, but there was much more going on than these numbers might suggest.

For starters, at the beginning of the game, in his first regular season road game, Wentz started his opening drive with a series of empty backfield passing plays. He completed the majority of them with quick throws that allowed him to quickly select a receiver and make the pass. However, it has to be said that he was clearly in complete control of the offence, certainly appearing to make adjustments and looking like a quarterback who has been playing in the NFL for years.

It has to be said that it did not look like he was not being asked to go through complex progressions, seemingly work with fairly straight forward reads and a fair amount of play action passes, but this looked to be a feature of good coaching. It is in fact to head coach Doug Pederson and offensive coordinator Frank Reich’s credit that they have schemed so well for their young quarterback. He was not being asked to do much more than three or five step drop passes, or work from shotgun, but he was in clear command of what he was being asked to do.

I can’t say that his arm amazed you with the throws he made, but to be honest all the talk of cannons for arms seems to be overdone when evaluating quarterbacks and despite one hopping a couple of passes under pressure, there were no problems for Wentz in delivery catchable balls. In fact there were at least two drops I noted, one of which really should have been a touchdown to Jordan Mathews as the pass was dropped in nicely as he ran into the end zone. My only real concerns were that Wentz took a couple of unnecessary hits on scrambles, which I’m sure his coaches will want him to protect himself from, and that the offence was not terribly efficient in the red zone, only getting three field goals in the first half.

All in all though, Carson Wentz looks like he could turn himself into a very good NFL quarterback, and it really is very impressive to see him in such control of the offence so early in his career. The big tests are yet to come, starting this evening against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but he certainly has done pretty much as well as you could have asked of a rookie quarterback thrown into the starting line-up straight away.

Week 3 Picks

25 Sunday Sep 2016

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I feel like the real trick with this week’s picks is not to over react and have all the teams who are either 2-0 or 0-2 continuing their winning or losing streak, as the more common result is likely to be a first win or loss, but whether I stick to that as I go through each game individually remains to be seen.

Cardinals @ Bills(+4.5)

The first game already shows the problem with my opening paragraph as the Bill have simply been bad, and given the difficulties they had with pass defence, I can’t see them being effective at slowing down the Cardinals offence and Bruce Arian’s vertical attack, nor being able to move the ball consistently on an opportunistic defence and so I see this as being a fairly straight forward win for the Cardinals.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Broncos @ Bengals (-2.5)

The season doesn’t get any easier for the Bengals as their first home game of the season sees them welcome the Super Bowl champions. That said, whilst the Broncos defence has been impressive, I’m not sure the Broncos have seen a defence of the standard of the Bengals, and with an inexperienced Trevor Siemian under centre on the road I’m backing the Bengals to get back to a winning record.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Browns @ Dolphins (-9.5)

Things just keep going from bad to worse for the Browns, and apart from the injuries to their quarterbacks, promising rookie receiver Cory Coleman broke his hand in practice, proving yet again that the Browns can’t have nice things. This line is somewhat eye watering, but with the Dolphins at the home and having mounted a comeback in the second half against the Patriots, I think that not only are they the more likely to get the first win for either team, but that they may well cover this spread as well.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Lions @ Packers (-7.5)

This game gives me real pause, as all is not well with the Packers so far, with similar problems surfacing on offence as they faced last year. However, I think in their opening game at Lambeau Field they will get back to winning ways, but this is a lot of points. The injuries in the Lions’ defence worry me and although their offence has looked good so far this year, I am not sure about them going against a Packers defence that has impressed me despite the problems against the pass. I keep changing my mind on this one, but I think it could be a get right game for the Packers that in the end gets them the cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Raiders @ Titans (-1.5)

The Raiders are still a very up and down team with their offence currently ranked number one in the NFL by DVOA and the defence ranked thirty-second. They are travelling to a Titans team who got an unlikely win against a Lions team who had three touchdowns waved off for penalties. I’m not sold on the Titans as being good, but the Raiders don’t travel well either. I’m really not sure which way to go, but with head coach Jack Del Rio taking a bigger hand in the defence this week I’m nervously backing the Raiders on the road.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Vikings @ Panthers (-6.5)

I think that the Panthers will run out winners in this game, but given how ineffective Adrian Peterson had been this season, I’m not sure how badly his loss will hurt a new look Vikings offence who still need to fix their offensive line issues. The Panthers defence are not really a team to do this against, but the Vikings defence will likely keep them in the game and so I’m backing the Vikings to cover on the road.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Washington @ Giants (-4.5)

I’m sort of going against my plan of picking here, but DC Grudens are not functioning well on offence, with quarterback Kirk Cousins playing inconsistently, and couple this with a defence that is not playing that well and I don’t see a lot of hope. The Giants may have built their defence through free agency, but it seems to be working and with a passing attack that seems a lot more balanced than last year, I think Eli Manning has the options to get the ball to receivers no matter what is going on between Odell Beckham and Josh Norman.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Ravens @ Jaguars (+0.5)

The Ravens have got off to a good start to the season, but are quietly not a great road team under John Harbaugh who gave up twenty points to the Browns last week. They face a desperate Jaguars team down in Jacksonville, who will already be aware of how seldom 0-2 teams get to the playoffs and so if they are to rescue their season they have to win this game, even if it is early in the season for must win games.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Rams @ Buccaneers (-4.5)

The Rams are 1-1 despite not scoring a touchdown on offence yet this season. This week they travel down to Tampa Bay, where I expect Jameis Winston to bounce back from his terrible performance last week. I really don’t trust the Rams, and I think this is a game where they could be exposed.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

49ers @ Seahawks (-9.5)

It is just possible that the Seahawks have a fatal flaw thanks to the combination of Marshawn Lynch retiring and the continued awfulness of their offensive line. I don’t exactly see them loosing this game, but I am not at all convinced that they will run out ten point winners over anyone. The 49ers are playing hard for Chip Kelly, and I see him keeping this one competitive even on another tough road trip.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Chargers @ Colts (-2.5)

I am really not sure what to do with this game. The Chargers are on the road in Indianapolis having lost Danny Woodhead last week after losing Keenan Allen in week one. Their defence is playing better than it was last year, but the injury bug keeps biting this team. The Colts have looked okay offensively thanks to Andrew Luck looking more like himself, but the offensive line still isn’t that great and they’ve now lost Dante Moncrief to a fractured shoulder blade. They have also struggled once more in rush defence. I’m reluctantly backing the Colts at home as it is hard to see a team with a quarterback as good as Andrew Luck going 0-3, but that’s not to say it won’t happen.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Jets @ Chiefs (-2.5)

The Chiefs are not quite right on defence, and their offence fell short against a Texans’ defence that were looking very good until they played the Patriots on Thursday. I trust Andy Reid but I think they might have too many injuries at similar positions. That said, Arrowhead Stadium is a famously difficult place to visit and the Jets have injury concerns of their own in their very deep receiver group. I’m really not sure which way this could go, but I’m going to back the Jets as from what I have seen I believe that they are the better team even if this is a difficult spot.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Steelers @ Eagles (+3.5)

The Eagles have got off to a surprisingly good start with rookie Carson Wentz playing very well, but the Steelers are a completely different level of team to the Browns or Bears and so I think the Steelers run out winners in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Bears @ Cowboys (-5.5)

The Bears are really struggling, and with the number of injuries piling up to go alongside the problems they were already having even before Jay Cutler hurt his thumb, I think they are in for a long game against the Cowboys in Dallas. The line makes me slightly nervous, but at the end of the day I think the Cowboys are simply better equipped to win this game by a fair margin.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Falcons @ Saints (-3.5)

I really don’t have a handle on the Falcons, who are coming off a road win in Oakland to face a Saints team who at least managed to stop the Giants’ offence from running rampant last week. The problem for me is that I don’t have great hand on the Saints either, but their defence still scares me, and with the extra half point I’m going to pick the Falcons to cover, but I’m really not very confident on this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

25 Sunday Sep 2016

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Houston Texan 0
New England Patriots 27

This is a slightly odd game to write up as it was so incredibly one sided, and even though I said when I picked the Texans that I could see the Patriots winning the game, I was not thinking with a result like this.

The Patriots dominated the Texans in all three phases of the game and so I will start with mention of the Patriots in special teams. One feature that has already been pretty prominent this season is the Patriot’s reaction to the new kick off rules, with them deliberately kicking the ball short of the end zone and backing their coverage team to tackle before the twenty-five yard line and so give them an advantage in field position. Add this to them regularly pining the Texans behind the twenty yard line by punting, and they had a decided advantage in special teams even before the Texans started fumbling their returns.

On offence the Patriots demonstrated that they don’t have a single game plan, but adjust to both their opponent and the strength of their team, and so with a rookie third string quarterback they went very run heavy whilst using stunts and extra linemen to control the Texan’s defensive front. This they did very effectively, and whilst they were not explosive on offence, they did enough. This is even more impressive when you find out that in the second quarter Jacoby Brissett sprained his thumb. The Patriots may have only generated one hundred and three yards of passing offence on eleven completions from nineteen attempts, but when you can get one hundred and eighty-five yards on the ground then this doesn’t matter.

The Texans defence was pretty ineffective, which JJ Watt kept remarkably quiet. It is hard to write too much about them in a game like this, they kept in control of the passing game, but that really wasn’t the focus of the Patriots offence. How they allowed the known to be mobile Brissett to run twenty-seven yards for a touchdown is a mystery, and they will be hoping that this was just a blip in the season and Watt’s problems were simply caused by a road game on a short week whilst still coming back from a back injury.

If the defensive problem for the Texans were possibly a blip, the offensive struggles are actually pretty worrying. The game plan did not work at all, with a surprising number of attempted runs on third down, and the Texans didn’t even make it into the Patriots half of the field until the third quarter. It didn’t seem that Brock Osweiler could drive the team in this game, and DeAndre Hopkins had to make some pretty spectacular catches to get his four catches for fifty-six yards. All too often Osweiler would throw to Lamar Miller or Ryan Griffin underneath, and he will have to improve greatly to justify his seventeen million dollar a year contract. It must also be worrying that Bill O’Brien was so outcoached on his side of the ball, but plenty of coordinators have failed against Bill Belichick.

The Patriots defence really had the number of the Texans all game, and whilst there was no one area obviously dominant, they were able to contain the Texans all game and certainly never allowed them to sustain a drive. The interception by Jamie Collins was as much because Osweiler simply didn’t see him lurking in the middle of the field, and Jabaal Sheard got both of the team’s sacks, but in keeping with the overall nature of this game it was a team performance that was the story of the defence.

The Patriots keep rolling, and I don’t think anyone would bet against them going 4-0 without Tom Brady despite the injury problems stacking up at quarterback, especially with the Bills visiting them next week.

The Texans will be hoping this was a one off anomaly, but with the offensive problems and JJ Watt not looking at all himself, there will be concern until they can put a run of results together.