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Saturday Night’s Alright for Picking

16 Saturday Dec 2017

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Well after a disastrous Thursday night pick where I failed to foresee that Brock Osweiler would come in and play really well, we move to the two Saturday night games.

Bears @ Lions (-5.5)

I am tempted by the points in this one with the Chicago Bears coming off a very good looking win against the Bengals last week. However, I’m not sure how much was the Bears good play and how much was an injured Bengals team coming off a tough Monday night game that put a final nail in the coffin for their playoff hopes. Meanwhile, the Detroit Lions did enough in Tampa Bay to win the game and with an outside shot at the playoffs I think they should win this one and hopefully cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Chargers @ Chiefs (+1.5)

This should be a really interesting game, and part of me definitely wants to take the points for the Chiefs as they have one of the better home advantages in the league. However, they have only won one game in their last five whilst the visiting LA Chargers have won four straight in the same period. More worrying for Chiefs fans is that their defence has been struggling and Chargers’ receiver Keenan Allen seems to be going from strength to strength with four consecutive one hundred yard games. I’ll be a little nervous about it, but I’m going to back the Chargers to win out in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Why Can’t We Have Nice Things?

14 Thursday Dec 2017

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With the loss of Carson Wentz for the rest of the season it really feels like NFL fans just can’t have nice things this year.

That said, as upsetting as it was to have the team with the best record in the NFC lose its starting quarterback, it still pales into insignificance when compared to the spinal injury the Steelers’ linebacker Ryan Shazier picked up the week before.

I was travelling to and from Newcastle last week and so didn’t really have time to write about what happened during the Pittsburgh Steelers Monday night clash with the Cincinnati Bengals in the right kind of detail and I’m still not entirely sure what the correct thing is to say. I didn’t enjoy watching the game, there was a sense of inevitability about the Steelers come back and I am very bored of the lack of discipline and the chippiness in these games. Particularly on the Bengals side but the sight of the various hits that concussed players given what had happened to Shazier was difficult to watch. We know the game is dangerous, and at some level we have to make peace with that, but that Monday night game showed a side of football that has to brought under control and that doesn’t include the play where Shazier was hurt.

To be honest I just want him to be okay, and I don’t mean a return to football. Given that the man had spinal stabilisation surgery, I want him to be able to walk around and lead his life.

Last week also saw firings in New York and Cleveland with the Giants clearing house when they fired both GM Jerry Reese and head coach Ben McAdoo whilst the Browns let go of Sashi Brown.

There have been problems with the roster for a while in New York and so letting go Jerry Reese despite him being involved in two Super Bowl wins but there is talent to build upon for whoever takes over, although the issue of a quarterback will be the major headache.

As for the Browns, I don’t really know how much was the quarterbacks they didn’t take in the draft; the failure of the AJ McCarron trade due to the paperwork not being sent in on time; or the relationship with the rest of the front office, owner, and head coach Hue Jackson who is apparently safe for now but some mix of these things got Sashi Brown fired and they have already replaced him with John Dorsey. Only time will tell how much this will affect their approach, but I would imagine something will happen around the quarterback position ahead of next season. I’m also not entirely sure that Hue Jackson will survive, particularly if the Browns fail to register a win this season despite his current vote of confidence.

I really hope that things turns round for the Browns, they have such a loyal fan base despite the woeful performance of the team for a number of years.

And now a recap of the week fourteen picks and tonight’s game.

Gee:      Week 14   8-8                     Overall   117-92
Dan:      Week 14   6-10                  Overall   108-101

Broncos @ Colts (+2.5)

This not exactly a game to set pulse rates racing and with the Denver Broncos winning their first game since their week five bye on Sunday visiting the 3-10 Indianapolis Colts. The Broncos have not won on the road all season so is this the week that they start? I don’t know is the honest answer and whilst I could regret this, I’m reverting to home team Thursday night rules and grabbing a couple of points unenthusiastically although I am curious to see how this game plays out.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Week Fifteen Picks

18 Sunday Dec 2016

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Well here we are with this week’s pick, have picked a slender two pick lead last week, I hope I can keep the momentum up.

Gee:      Week 14   10-6                   Overall   97-111
Dan:      Week 14   8-8                     Overall   95-113

Browns @ Bills (-9.5)

I think you would have to have a heart of stone to not want the Browns to get a win, but they are running out of time and it is hard to see where they might get it. The Bills have struggled on defence, but have a running game that ranks first in the league by DVOA yet has been reliant on LeSean McCoy. I’m not sure that the Browns can win this game on the road, and it has been a while since they have been within ten points, but laying this many points as the Bills worries me and so in the end I am very nervously backing the Browns to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:     Bills

Packers @ Bears (+6.5)

The Bears have such a long list of injuries, but it does look like there are things that can be built upon next season. This week they welcome a Packers team coming off a big win against the Seahawks. The Packers need to win all their remaining games to have a chance at getting to the playoffs, but whilst I can’t predict if they can pull that off or not, I think they will win this one. It’s just a question of whether they can cover these points, but in a season of varying performance levels, the Packers are look like they are coming together and so I think they will.

Gee’sPick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:     Packers

Steelers @ Bengals (+3.5)

This is a grudge game, and a chance for the Bengals to act as spoilers in a season that has fallen well short of where they hoped to have been. The Steelers are still chasing the playoffs, but injury has hit their receivers and they can’t expect two hundred and ninety-eight combined yards from Le’Veon Bell every week. I expect this to be a close game, and as the one with the most meaning for the Bengals, I just fancy them to cover getting three and a half points at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:     Steelers

Lions @ Giants (-4.5)

The Giants have been playing really well on defence in a rare case of offseason free-agents working out, but they have been struggling a little on offence. The Lions have been relying on Matthew Stafford so much this season, but the big questions for them will be how his injured finger will affect his ability to throw the ball. I am sure that Lions fans will be waiting for the wheels to fall off, and that might well be the case, but a five point win just feels like too much to ask for me. Although I could be very wrong about that…

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:     Giants

Titans @ Chiefs (-5.5)

The Chiefs keep finding a way to win, and are making a serious case to be considered the best team in the AFC. This week they welcome a Titans team that have made serious steps forward from last season, but one I am finding serially hard to predict week to week. This feels like a lot of points to me, but I’m not sure the Titans, for all their progress this year, are ready for this game in Arrowhead stadium.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:     Chiefs

Colts @ Vikings (-4.5)

The Colts have been so up and down this season, and lost a key divisional game last week that likely puts them out of the playoff hunt. This week they travel to Minnesota to face a team that possibly think they are still in the playoff hunt, but who have been fighting through injuries all season. In recent weeks their defence has returned to their early season form, yet the big question is whether their offence can do enough to win. This makes the Vikings needing to win by five just that bit too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:     Vikings

Eagles @ Ravens (-6.5)

The Ravens’ loss to the Patriots looks closer by the score than it actually was as it took successive punt miscues for the Ravens to get the chance to score. The Eagles however, are on a four week losing streak having had their season slip away from the early promise it showed. However, they did keep the game close when they hosted Washington last week, but they are on the road in Baltimore against a much tougher defence in this game, and so I seem them struggling to move the ball. The offence of the Ravens does make me worry, and in the end I’m not confident enough that they will cover this line to pick the Ravens, even if I think they will win.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:     Ravens

Jaguars @ Texans (-6.5)

I face a similar dilemma in this game as I expect the Texans who have a good defence and a struggling offence to win at home, but the Jaguars are a much worse team than the Eagles, or at least are in terms of performance. More worrying, the last game that the Jaguars kept closer than seven was against the Texans back in week ten, so I’m really not sure what to do in this game. I am tempted by the points, but in the end with the Jaguars having little to play for and the Texans in a fight for the division, I am backing the Texans to cover this line, although I don’t feel great about it.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:     Texans

49ers @ Falcons (-13.5)

The Falcons’ number one offence by DVOA host the 49ers thirtieth ranked defence, and even without an injured Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu the Falcons racked up a big win against the Rams last week. They were given some points by the Rams offence, but it is hard to see the 49ers doing much better in this one, and so I’m going to take the unusual step of laying the 13.5 as the Falcons are at home. It does make me a little nervous, but if you look through the year, of the twelve games the 49ers have lost, half of them have been by over fourteen points so it is not so odd they might do it again on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:     49ers

Saints @ Cardinals (-2.5)

The Saints offence seems to have struggled over the last couple of weeks and this week they travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals. I’m not sure what is likely to happen in this game as the Cardinals have struggled all year, whilst the Saints have been up and down. By DVOA the Saints are a better team, but having narrowly lost to the Dolphins in the pouring rain last week and beaten Washington the week before, I’m going to back the Cardinals at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:     Cardinals

Patriots @ Broncos (+3.5)

This is an interesting line to me as the Patriots looked like you might be able to get at them even before they lost Rob Gronkowski for the year. However, Tom Bray has been managing without his favourite target thanks to the Patriots famed flexibility of game-plan and a much improved offensive line. However, Brady’s record is not that great in Denver and the Broncos’ pass defence has looked as strong as ever. The problem is that the Broncos offence has not been playing well and you can run the ball against them. I am strongly tempted by the Broncos getting points at home, but can’t discount how the Patriots keep finding a way this season and the problems the Broncos are having on offence. This could be a horrible mistake.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:     Patriots

Raiders @ Chargers (+2.5)

Teams that get points at home who are not terrible are often tempting to pick, but with yet more injuries hampering the Chargers I can’t see them beating a Raiders team who will be desperate to get back on track after losing to the Chiefs last week. With the advantage of the extra days of rest I think the Raiders will do just that as they are a much better team.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:     Raiders

Buccaneers @ Cowboys (-7.5)

This should one of the games of the week, with a surging Buccaneers team travelling to Dallas to face a Cowboys team who just lost to the Giants again. There is already talk that Dak Prescott should sit for Tony Romo, which seems somewhat premature although he will need to bounce back as his performance has dipped in recent weeks. However, the Buccaneers defence has rounded into form and I expect a closer game than this line suggests. I’m not sure if the Buccaneers can win, but I expect them to keep the game closer than eight.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:     Buccaneers

Panthers @ Washington (-4.5)

Washington really needs this game, but whilst their offence continues to roll, their defence has struggled and they have not been convincing. The Panthers have been playing tough in recent weeks, and five of their eight losses have been by three points or less and so I think they could keep this one close. For whatever reason, I can’t bring myself to pick Washington to cover this line so I will take the points.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:     Washington

Saturday Night’s Alright for Picking

17 Saturday Dec 2016

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And so we follow up Thursday night football this week with a Saturday night game.

Dolphins @ Jets (+2.5)

It is always a big change to a team’s fortunes when the starting quarterback goes down, but the Dolphins bounced back to beat the Cardinals last week despite Tannehill’s injury. This week they travel to face a Jets team who had to mount a second half come back to beat the 49ers in their last game. The Tannehill injury definitely hurts the Dolphins playoff chances, but even with Matt Moore I think they have enough to win this divisional game on the road. We’ll see if that is a mistake!

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Buccaneers @ Rams, Amateur Adventures in Film, and Week 15 Picks

20 Sunday Dec 2015

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It was a slightly odd Thursday night game given that if you were to look at the statistics on their own without the score, you would think that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers actually won the game, but in the end the Rams ran out convincing winners in what could be their last game in St Louis.

The Rams have now won two games straight and part of that turn around seems to be the change in offensive coordinator. Whilst the Buccaneers did an effective job of bottling up Todd Gurley, the Rams came with game plan that made the most of Tavon Austin’s ability with the ball in his hands, and an efficient passing game that gained two hundred and thirty-four yards from fourteen receptions out of seventeen attempts. I am not going to say that Case Keenum is an amazing quarterback, but this did look like a functional NFL offence, which it has not done for a lot of the season, and I will be as curious to see what this team does in the offseason with the construction of the roster as where the franchise will actually play its games.

The Buccaneers defence played well in the run game in terms of restricting Todd Gurley, which is not a surprise given that they were ranked fifth in rush defence by DVOA coming into this game. However, they were not that sure in their tackling, and had problems dealing with the shifty Austin. No one really stood out, although Gerard McCoy flashed, but he has not hit the lofty heights that we have come to expect given his performance in previous seasons. They have however, begun to look like they can make Lovie Smith’s Tampa Two defence effective, which seemed to be a real question earlier this season and they will be hoping to build on that next year.

The Buccaneers offence in contrast, had some good performances, but the yardage gained hides the fact that they got very little going in the first half, gave the ball away twice and could have lost the ball again if they had not recovered one of their fumbles. It was odd in that to start the game they tried to rely on their run game as they have much for the season, but whilst Doug Martin ran the ball effectively, Jameis Winston kept missing his receivers with throws that were too high. In fact Winston had this problem crop up through much of the game, but it was particularly prevalent in the early part of the game and led to difficulties maintaining drives. In the second half, and particularly in the fourth quarter the Buccaneers were able to get things going, and Winston was able to make some big plays with his arm, particularly to receiver Mike Evans who had an impressing one hundred and fifty-seven yard game from nine receptions, although he was targeted seventeen times. The one interception Winston did have was a bad read as he failed to take account of a dropping corner, but he has been much better in his first season than many feared and if they can get him some more options and improve his offensive line then the Buccaneers definitely have a quarterback for the foreseeable future.

There is no doubting the talent on the Rams defence, but it has rarely been able to get everyone playing well at the same time. The particularly impressive player for them in this game was Aaron Donald, who may not have had any sacks, but did get two tackles for a loss as well as three quarterback hits whilst causing all kinds of problems for the Buccaneers offensive line. It should not be possible for a defensive tackle as large as Donald to move as quickly as he does, but he also possesses the strength to shed blockers to make tackles in the run game, and in his second year is making a case to be included in the conversation with the other defensive greats.

In the end the Rams ran out comfortable winners in this one, but I am not sure it will be enough to save Jeff Fisher his job, whilst the improvement the Buccaneers have made this season should mean that Lovie Smith gets another year to continue the rebuilding job in Tamp Bay

I want to write a little about the coaching tape I watched this week before moving onto our picks for week fifteen. I was looking at the way that Cardinals use safeties Deone Bucannon and Tyrann Mathieu, which is pretty much how I outlined last week, but it is still impressive to see on tape.

For Bucannon, although listed as a safety he really does play as one of their linebackers, using his movement skills to avoid blocks and make plays. Not only did he force a fumble and recover it, but he was able to tackle Adrian Peterson in the backfield, and was second in tackles only to Tyrann Mathieu.

If Bucannon is exceptional because of the position he is playing given his size, then Tyrann Mathieu demonstrates an amazing flexibility in the way he is used around the Cardinals defence. He basically lines up as either a safety or slot corner, and is usually around the line of scrimmage, but from there he can exploit his athleticism either rushing towards the play, or drop into coverage. In the Cardinals blitz heavy scheme he frequently rushes from the slot corner position or from the line, and was able to get pressure on the QB multiple times. The pass play I mentioned in last week’s write up where Mathieu batted down a ball behind the line of scrimmage was actually coming off such a slot corner blitz, and given that Teddy Bridgewater was looking left as the ball was snapped, I would guess hat Mathieu either keyed off that or adjusted his blitz angle in case the ball came out early, and it was this that allowed him get a hand to the ball.

Overall what I appreciated about the Cardinals defensive scheme was that they have collected a number of good athletes and are putting them in a position to make the most of their physical gifts whilst giving themselves flexibility in an era where offences are becoming increasingly multiple and aggressive in the pass game. I don’t know if there are going to be other teams that copy them, but the principle of having that much coverage ability combined with aggressive pressure is one we may well see copied, if perhaps with different types of personnel.

Finally we go on to the rest of our week fifteen picks, with Dan and I both going 1-1 so far.

Falcons @ Jagaurs (-3.5)

The points scare me because despite the improvement of the Jaguars this season, they are still not reliable week to week, but they are coming off a win where they scored fifty points whilst the Falcons are on a horrendous run of losses. I don’t see the Falcons ending that run on the road in Jacksonville this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Bills @ Washington (+0.5)

It feels like I have been wrong about this Washington season all year, but with the Bills falling from playoff contention thanks to last week’s loss and their continued ill discipline which seems to be a feature of Rex Ryan’s teams, I think that Washington will win this game as they try to stay in the NFC East race. The worry is that Washington has been inconsistent on both sides of the ball, but they have been better at home and with something to play for I will take the half point that doesn’t really mean anything.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Bears @ Vikings (-5.5)

The Chicago Bears have been better than most thought they would be this season, but the Vikings put up a very credible performance against a very good Cardinals team in Arizona and will hopefully be healthier after the extra rest. Their defence has been good all year and was solid last week despite missing some of its best players, and they will want to get their season back on track in this divisional game and I think they will. They might not cover the points, but I think the Vikings are the better team so that’s the way I am going.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Titans @ Patriots (-14.5)

The points make me pause, but the Titans are on the road and do not have the players around rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota to compete with the Patriots given the return of Rob Gronkowski and what he means to their offence. The Titans only scored one touchdown against the Jets last week, and that was a trick play, so I don’t see them doing much in their second game on the road in a row, so whilst I should pick the Titans because of the points, I just can’t bring myself to do it.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Texans @ Colts (-1.5)

The AFC South is in such a state that two teams with 6-7 records are playing for the division lead, with both of them starting backup quarterbacks. There is very little to hang your hat on in this game, but the Texans at least have JJ Watt and a defence that has been coming on in the second half of the season even if they did struggle against the Patriots last week, so that’s what I will put my trust in for this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Chiefs @ Ravens (+7.5)

The Chiefs are on one of the hottest streaks in the NFL at the moment, which is a testament to the job head coach Andy Reid did in keeping this team together through their 1-5 start that easily could have wrecked their season. The Ravens have been specialising in close games for much of the season, even if they had been losing most of them, but the injuries finally passed a point where they could compete and lost badly last week. I think that the Chiefs offence will be better this week for not playing in horrendous conditions, and will cover the points in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Panthers @ Giants (+5.5)

This game has one of the matchups of the year with Panther’s corner Josh Norman likely going up against Odell Beckham. There is a lot of buzz about how the Giants love playing these kinds of games and upsetting good teams, but this Giants team is not like the one that beat the Patriots in two Super Bowls. Those teams may have come good at the end of the year, but they also had a fearsome pass rush and more to hang their hat on than Eli Manning getting hot. Yes the Manning to Beckham connection is effective, but this week they go up against one of the best defences in the league, and whilst the injuries the Panthers suffered last week worry me, I don’t see the Giants really being able to compete. This probably means the Giants will win as it’s hard to predict that the Panthers really will go undefeated, but I’m not prepared to pick against them this week despite needing them to win by six points on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Browns @ Seahawks (-14.5)

I feel like I am picking a lot of sides giving away a lot of points this week, and they surely can’t all come in, but despite the Browns getting a win last week, I don’t see them repeating the trick as they travel from Cleveland to Seattle. The Seahawks defence is still very good, and with their offence now finding an effective passing game I’m not even worried about the loss of rookie running back Thomas Rawls in this one. I’m backing the Seahawks to run out convincing winners at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Packers @ Raiders (+3.5)

I think I am changing my mind on this one in that on the podcast I said I was not convinced by the Packers, having had false dawns before this season in terms of things turning consistently round on offence, and the Raiders have played well for large parts of the season even if they do make young team mistakes. However, with Mike McCarthy taking back play calling duties last week, and a faith that they will not allow Khalil Mack to get five sacks like the Broncos did last week, I think the Packers may well cover this one even if the half point does make me nervous.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Bengals @ 49ers (+4.5)

The 49ers defence seems to play better at home that than they do on the road, but they just lost to the Cleveland Brown and their rush defence is near the bottom of the league. I know what Hue Jackson is saying about the game plan this week, and to some extent I believe him as I didn’t think it was a bad display by AJ McCarron against the Steelers last week, but a young quarterback’s best friend is the run game, which fits the tactical situation of this game and so I think the Bengals will run on the 49ers a lot. It may well be a close game, but I am choosing to take a page out of Dan’s giant book of optimism and back my team to cover this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Broncos @ Steelers (-6.5)

This line is tricky for me in that whilst the Broncos offence stuttered last week, they still have a really good defence. The Steelers have a great set of receivers, and this should be a really good game, but the Broncos could well slow the Steelers down. I think they can for a while, but this Steelers team are just so good at the moment, and whilst I think I would pick differently if this game was in Denver, I am backing the Steelers in Pittsburgh to win and maintain the pressure on the Bengals because that’s what happens in the AFC North.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Dolphins @ Chargers (-1.5)

There have been comments coming out of the Chargers locker room that they are aware this could be the team’s last game in San Diego and they are desperate for a win. I think the Dolphins might be close to being a good team than some would have you believe, but they have not been good this season. However, I am not sure the Chargers should be favourites against many given how their season has been, and there has been very little home field advantage for them this season so I will join Dan back on Dolphins Island this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Cardinals @ Eagles (+3.5)

The Cardinals continue to get wins with a good defence and explosive offence, whilst the Eagles have been uneven all season and I simply don’t trust them. So even thought the Cardinals are on the road in Philadelphia, I am backing them to cover the points in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Lions @ Saints (-2.5)

The Lions lost for a second week in the row, and it seems that being eliminated from the playoffs has stifled their little recovery. They are still playing better than they were, but then again so are the Saints. Their defence was not as bad last week as it has been all season, and they ran out convincing winners against the Buccaneers. This leaves me in something of a quandary, particularly as the Buccaneers were pretty convincingly beaten by the Rams on Thursday, but I am going for the team with the better record who are playing at home whilst keeping my fingers crossed.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Saturday Night’s Alright for Picking

19 Saturday Dec 2015

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It is the last weekend before Christmas, we survived the last bits of shopping, I still have lots to write, and the NFL are trying to trick me with a Saturday game, but here’s Dan and mine’s pick whilst I write the rest of the usual weekend blogs.

Jets @ Cowboys (+2.5)

The Cowboys are somehow technically still capable of winning the division with a 4-9 record, but I think we can finally dismiss them as they are two games back from everyone else in the division with three games left. I don’t think they have enough to win this game against a Jets team who are one of three teams vying for a wildcard place in the AFC with an 8-5 record. The Jets offence continues to play well, whilst the defence should have more than enough to stifle the struggling Cowboys.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

F is for Fanatic, or fan.

17 Thursday Dec 2015

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This week’s column is brought to you by the letter f, which for the purposes of the blog will stand for fanatic, or fan, rather than what I was saying on Sunday. It was a rough day for Bengals fans with the excellent season crumbling before our eyes, and inevitably it had to be against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers seemed to maintain their composure that bit more than the Bengals, but it was a cruel blow to lose Andy Dalton to a thumb fracture. I don’t want to write a woe is me piece, or spill bile directed at the Steelers, but I wanted to take a moment with the end of the regular season looming to take a look at the experience of being a fan.

You may well have heard people make reference to fan being a contraction of fanatic, and whether this is a true derivation or a nice line, there is no question that there are a huge number of people invested in various sports teams across the world, and some of them can be very committed. I would tend to think of myself as informed rather than maniacal, but there’s no question that I was excessively upset with the situation on Sunday. In fact I was probably as upset as I was with the dispiriting playoff loss to the Colts last season. I bounced back fairly quickly from that game as there were so many injuries to the offence’s skill players that I didn’t buy into the Andy Dalton narrative about not being able to win a playoff game. However, the plain fact of the matter is that he hasn’t yet, and one of the wonderful things about this season was that through play alone Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton were changing that story, and I felt that it stood a very good chance of being put to bed this season. There’s still a slight chance that it might, but I wouldn’t back it to happen, although there’s a chance that if Lewis and Hue Jackson can work with AJ McCarron that a playoff win can be found and the leagues longest playoff win drought will finally come to an end.

The key thing for this column though is that here I am on a different continent, in a world beset by problems more serious than a team’s ability to beat another at a contest of strength, skill, and speed, yet still there was a significant period of time where what I was upset about the bad fortune that had befallen a group of people I have never met dressed in orange and black. And yet I don’t think this is necessarily a bad thing. Yes I would agree that a lot of professional sports people, particularly the men, are overpaid when compared to the truly important work that people put in for society, but that doesn’t mean I want to get rid of professional sports. These issues speak to the nature of markets and their interaction with society rather than a problem with sport. I won’t give you a complete treatise on the faults of free market capitalism, or pretend that I have a solution, but I do want to take a moment to examine the fan experience, sports, and why if we can maintain a sense of proportion that sport is important.

I have written before about the importance in coaching, and I don’t think it is a coincidence that sport coaches are often called in to give talks on management or write books on how to build successful teams. However, you average fan may not be reading books on coaching techniques, incremental improvements, or developing a coherent philosophy for success. However, I strongly believe that we all only have so much time that we can spend in focussed work. This is perhaps even more the case if you work in a high pressure situation, or for long hours. If we look back at human history, we see the need to escape the every day woven through the human experience. As a writer, a musician, and so technically an artist, I know how important it is to connect with people’s everyday experience, but also to take them out of themselves. I hate criticisms of escapism as very few people can be completely serious all of the time, and I’m not sure how much time you would want to spend with those who are. The ability to stretch your imagination, whether you are dreaming of being a Jedi Knight, scoring the goal that take Leicester City to the top of the league, or playing for your home town Bengals, is important. The ability to step outside of yourself, to escape the drudgery of your day, to take a well earned break, is really useful and I would definitely say life enhancing.

Very few people are given the physical talent and the opportunity to play professional sports, let alone pull off a move to their childhood team like AJ Hawk managed this offseason when he joined the Bengals. However, playing sports at any level is a useful way of keeping active, and if professional sports can inspire children to play a sport, and if as a society we can make that a habit so we have more adults exercising regularly, then we are already on the way to a healthier society.

The benefits of sport are not just physical though. I spend a large amount of time writing about the NFL because I enjoy, but it is also a type of practice. I’m never too sure how much faith I put in the idea of the 10 000 hour rule, but you don’t get better at anything without practice. I don’t just write about sports, in fact the first thing I started writing is fiction and over the course of the year that is what I spend the majority of my time writing, but this blog is a kind of cross training. Just as you hear of NFL players training in different sports in the offseason, or using martial arts training to help them play football, this blog helps me work on the discipline and craft required for writing. This however is not the only non-physical benefit of sport.

A team can help community in a city, or even further afield as sports become increasingly global, but the mental benefit is more than bringing a group of people together, or making you happy when a team wins. Going back to children’s participation in sport, this is a good place for a child to learn what it means to be part of a team, and how to work hard at something, and possibly most importantly, dealing with failure. Why is dealing with failure important? Because in a society that seems to be increasingly trying to protect children from failure, that praises success, we very seldom seem to focus on the steps that it takes to become successful.

In Seatle Seahawks’ head coach Pete Caroll’s book, Win Forever – Live,Work, and Play Like a Champion, Caroll outlines the steps and journey that took him to defining his coaching philosophy that he calls Win Forever. This is the philosophy he uses to approach coaching a football team based around his belief in competition, and how he thinks a football team should function, but also how he approaches life in general. I have been thinking about this as at the end of the book he also challenges the reader to come up with their own plan, which believe it or not I have been thinking about off and on since the spring. I wouldn’t say it’s coherent yet, and I haven’t got the definition down to twenty five worse or less, but I have the name. Process over outcome, which I grant you is not as snappy as Win Forever, but here’s the point – I don’t think you can always win. I don’t think you even should. Success does not come about through a series of success built on success, which in fairness is not what Pete Caroll is trying to say, success is the achievement of a goal through continuing a process in the face of adversity. To succeed at anything, first you have to fail. I’m in danger of sounding like an internet meme, but in a world of random probability it is impossible to absolutely guarantee an outcome for anything other than the most basic of tasks. However, by focussing on controlling the process, learning from your mistakes, and by continually trying to improve, you can maximise your potential for success, and that’s all anybody can do. I base this on my experience of playing drums for over twenty years and easily clocking 10 000 practice hours, and over the last twenty years or so I have clocked up a fair number of hours writing. However, not everyone has those interests, and another way to get there is sport. I don’t know how many hours I have spent running, but I am still learning and whilst I will never get close to international competition, I am still inspired by Paula Radcliffe, Haile Gebrselassie, Mo Farrah, and David Rudisha. I also love lifting weights, and through spending many years fighting gravity with a barbell I have learned about discipline, dealing with adversity, and persistence.

I am not saying there are no problems in sport, in fact if you have been listening to the podcast you will have heard me point out huge failings in the way the NFL runs. I’m also not saying that being overly obsessed with your team isn’t a problem – obsession taken too far can definitely cause problems, but if obsession can be harnessed it can also lead to greatness. I may love writing, I may adore the arts, but I love sport as well, and being a fan is as much of my personality as anything else. I don’t mind if you don’t love the NFL, but don’t give up on sport, I am sure that if you look there’s something out there for you.

Moving away from my soap box, I’m also pretty damn competitive, so I won’t pretend that I’m not happy about having an eight game lead over Dan with three weeks to go of the regular season, but I’m not overconfident so let’s get to the Thursday night game and the first of our picks for week fifteen.

Gee:    Week 14   7-9             Overall   108-100
Dan:    Week 14   8-8             Overall   100-108

Buccaneers @ Rams (-0.5)

The Rams caught me of guard last week by playing well, but they have a history of winning games that make you think they are turning a corner, and then sinking straight back into the mire. The Buccaneers have definitely made progress this year, but were handled surprisingly easily last week by a Saints team that have not been good this season and who have had real problems all season on defence. The Rams defence is definitely better than the Saints and so I should have pause this weeks, but whilst I’m nervous, I simply do not trust the Rams in this situation.

Gee’s Pick:     Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:    Buccaneers

NFL Week 15 Picks

11 Thursday Dec 2014

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Week fourteen was one to forget for me, a horrible loss to the Steelers for the Bengals, and a 7-9 record that’s dropped me a likely unrecoverable five games behind Dan with only three more weeks to go. The race for the playoffs are really heating up, nowhere is that more true than in the AFC North so let’s get cracking with the week fifteen games.

Gee:      Week 14   7-9                     Overall   101-107
Dan:       Week 14   10-6                   Overall   106-102

Cardinals @ Rams (-3.5)

This should be an interesting Thursday night game and I’m really not sure where to go with this one.

The Rams have just shut out two teams in a row, and even through it was against the Raiders and the Washington Semi-Professional football team, this is still some achievement. The defence has been playing better for several weeks, even before Chris Long returned, and I suspect that the Cardinals will have problems moving the ball this week. If they can find themselves a quarterback in the offseason then the Rams could be a very interesting team next year.

The Cardinals managed to somehow stop the rot last week against the Chiefs, despite yet more injuries and the play of Drew Stanton. I think that Bruce Arians has been coach of the year and I’m really looking forward to watching their defence again this week. I’m backing the Cardinals in this game as I’m fed up of picking against them, it feels like every time I do they punish me for it.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Steelers @ Falcons (+2.5)

It was pretty impressive how competitive the Falcons made their game against the Packers considering they were 31-7 down at half time. They have been playing a bit better in recent weeks as they remain at the top of the awful NFC south. The problem is that whilst their offence has always had the talent at the skill positions and has begun to play better recently, the defence is not good and has very little pass rush. In fact, they are dead last by DVOA and I don’t see that changing this week.

The Steelers defence has been shaky all season, but whilst the offence has been patchy, when they are on they can be devastating, as they proved this weekend. They have their own version of the Cowboy triplets with Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Le’Veon Bell. The Steelers should not be in this position as they have some horrible losses, but now we are at the business end of the season they will be there or there abouts, and I expect them to have too much for the Falcons.

I can see this being a high scoring game, but whilst I would be thrilled if the Falcon could do the Bengals a favour, I can’t see it happening.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Packers @ Bills (+5.5)

The Bills defence really is very good and is not getting a lot of help from their offence. If you had offered them a stat line of 173 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions from Peyton Manning before the game, they would have taken your arm off. However, they couldn’t take advantage of this despite out gaining them by over one hundred yards. The problem is that having traded their first round pick for next year to get Sammy Watkins, I’m not sure how they will fix the QB problem in the offseason.

The Packers had to work to keep ahead of the Falcons in the second half, but they continue to be a step above as part of an elite four. I would love JJ Watt to win this year’s MVP, but I can only see it going to Aaron Rogers who has been playing brilliantly. Their defence is also playing more than well enough to cope with the Bills and whilst they are on the road this week, I think they are good enough to cover in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Bengals @ Browns (+0.5)

The Browns lost a heartbreaker on Sunday against the Colts, and it looks like Johnny Manziel will be getting the start on Sunday against the Bengals. This is perhaps not surprising given how Brian Hoyer has struggled over the last few weeks, but whilst Johnny Football may be able to make some plays with his legs, I’m not sure if he is going to make that much difference to the offensive stuggles that this team are now going through. Their defence will keep them in this game as they have been playing really well and almost did enough last week to beat the Colts.

The Bengals never make things easy for themselves, and having picked up a game on everybody in the AFC North two weeks ago, came crashing back to the pack with a frustrating loss to the Steelers. The big plays at the end of the game were daggers to the heart, and unusual for a secondary that has held up so well throughout the season. I can’t be the only Bengals fan who is missing Mike Zimmer, and finally losing Vontaze Burfict to IR hardly inspires me with confidence given how much the defence has missed them this season. That said, AJ Green is coming of a career day and I’m sure the coaching staff will be reminding the team of the dismal result earlier this season in their Thursday night game. This is the Bengals’ easiest game left with the Broncos visiting next week and what looks like it could a huge trip to Pittsburgh to finish the season.

This could be a huge mistake as Andy Dalton hasn’t exactly proved himself in pressure games, but I have to keep faith for one more week. This is the triumph of hope over experience.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Texans @ Colts (-6.5)

The Colts are leading their division thanks to the ability of Andrew Luck in pressure situations and because TY Hilton seems to have an amazing knack of getting open for huge plays in what feels like every game. However, their offence line is not good, their running game is horrible, and their defence has been playing badly recently. Having to come from behind at the end of the game against the Browns does not inspire confidence.

The Texans maybe limited at quarterback, but they have Arian Foster back and are coming off a pair of wins. Admittedly these were against the Jaguars and Titans, but you can only beat the opposition in front of you and they finished off both competently. I have feeling that JJ Watt is going to have another great game against a Colts line that has given up too much pressure recently.

I’m not sure that the Texans can actually win this game, but I think it will be closer than the six and a half points that the Colts are giving them so I’m baking JJ Watt as life is just more fun that way.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Raiders @ Chiefs (-10.5)

The Chiefs were in the game with thirty seconds to go, and had no vertical passing game to try to win but didn’t even try. This is the Chiefs’ biggest problem this season, and to top it off they have not thrown a touchdown pass to a wide receiver all year either. Their defence has been playing well with Justin Houston having sixteen sacks this year, jointly leading the league with the Ravens’ Elvis Dumervil. They will be desperate to halt a three game losing streak and avenge their week twelve loss to their bitter divisional rivals.

The Raiders have won two out of their last three games, and look to have found their quarterback of the future. That said, it is one thing to pick a couple of wins at home, it is another to go into Arrowhead Stadium and beat their divisional rivals. I don’t think they will have enough to win this game, but I have no idea what the Chiefs have done recently to get a double digit spread in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Dolphins @ Patriots (-7.5)

The Dolphins took a narrow lead into half time against the Ravens and then fell apart in the second half. Even more worrying is that there definitely appears to be a problem with their rush defence as they got gouged for 183 yards, following up the 277 yards they gave up against the run the week before. Ryan Tannehill is running the offence within his limitations, but his is still throwing too many interceptions and they are not scoring enough points. There is an awful lot of talent on this team, but it doesn’t seem to clicking when it matters most and so a trip to snowy New England is probably not what they need right now.

The Patriots don’t lose two games in a row very often, and they righted the ship last week against the Chargers. Their secondary is playing really well and should be able to contain the Dolphins passing game, particularly as Tannehill doesn’t seem to throw the deep ball. Perhaps more worrying for the Dolphins, is the physical run game that the Patriots used to batter the Colts in week eleven, racking up well over two hundred yards in the process. I think there’s a definite chance we could see that again this week and I don’t fancy the team from Florida travelling well this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Semi-Pros @ Giants (-6.5)

The Giants have some great young talent from this last draft, but they’ve had too many failures in the preceding drafts to maintain the depth that they need. Their have been brief periods of good play, and they are still working hard for a head coach who deserves better. They are coming of a solid win against the sinking Titans and face another of the NFL’s bottom tier of teams this week. This is not a good team, but they have enough bright spots to beat a Washington team that is in disarray. Given what happened to the Semi-Pro’s secondary against the Colts in week thirteen, it will be interesting to see how big a day Odell Beckham Jnr has.

The Semi-Pros are in such a mess. Their o-line couldn’t protect Colt McCoy and he was taken out of the game with a neck injury that put Robert Griffin back into the game. The Semi-Pros have not announced which of their QBs will start in replacement of McCoy but given their respective play, neither are enticing prospects.

The Giants are giving a lot of points for a team of their quality, but there’s no way I’m backing the Semi-Pros this week, and with games coming up against the Eagles and Cowboys, I won’t be picking them again this year without getting an extraordinary amount of points.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Buccaneers @ Panthers (-5.5)

It’s probable that Cam Newton just can’t wait for this wretched season to end. After being nicked up for most of the season behind a bad line, he finally puts together a good performance as his team smashes the Saints, and then he’s involved in a car crash. He has a couple of fractures to the vertebrae in his lower back, similar to the injury that Tony Romo had earlier in the season. You would think that with a 4-8-1 record that it would be time to pack Newton in for the year, but in the NFC South such a record means you are only a game out from the divisional lead. In the first game of the season Derek Anderson led the Panthers to a solid win over the Buccaneers in Tampa, the question is whether the Panthers can repeat their performance last week or did the Saints just make them look good.

The Buccaneers are on a three game losing steak, but got soundly beaten by the Lions, having run the Bengals close at home the week before. Josh McCown took a real beating last week, but should have a much easier time against an anaemic Panthers pass rush and Mike Evans could have a field day against a Panthers secondary that has looked bad for most of the season. I think they have some hope in these matchups and their defence has been playing okay so I see them at least keeping it close.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Jaguars @ Ravens (-13.5)

This is a fairly straight forward game to me. The Ravens have a very good team everywhere bar the secondary, and the Jaguars don’t have the offence to take advantage of this. The other thing is that whilst the Jaguars have kept games close against teams with a similar record, when they have played good teams they have not only lost, but lost by a lot, including eight games by fourteen points or more.

I’m five games behind Dan and I need to make some up by taking some risks and I’ve not had a good time backing the Jaguars, even with a line this big.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens (Turns out it’s not much of a risk when Dan picks the same team as me!)

Broncos @ Chargers (+3.5)

This is a second tough home game in a row for Chargers as they follow up a visit from the Patriots with one from the Broncos. There aren’t many teams who would be able to keep both of these games competitive, but the Chargers were credible in their first game against the Patriots. Sadly though, whilst they kept it close for most of the game, the Patriots’ defence was able to clamp down and prevent the Chargers scoring any points in the second half. The problem for the Chargers is that the Broncos are ranked third in defence by DVOA and are likely to cause them problems as well.

The interesting thing in this week’s game will be the performance of Peyton Manning, who had his streak of fifty-one games with a touchdown broken last week against the Bills. There will be a lot of talk about regression and I’m sure cold weather will be mentioned in the coming weeks, but you wouldn’t bet against Manning bouncing back with a point to prove. The worrying thing for the Chargers is that Broncos seem to have found themselves a run game recently and an o-line configuration that has been playing better. It appears that the Broncos offence now has a plan B to go along with the improved defence.

There may have been some fluctuations in their performance over the year, but the Broncos have proved themselves to be one of the elite teams of the NFL, whilst the Chargers are that lit bit behind them. I think this should a really good game but I’m backing the Broncos, and Manning in warm weather, to win out in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Jets @ Titans (+1.5)

The Titans look to have lost rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger for the rest of the season, and for a team as non-descript as the Titans there doesn’t look to be much left to play for. This week they welcome the Jets in a game that pits two teams that have a share of the worst record in the league against each other. I give a slight edge to the Jets, the players are really trying for Rex Ryan, who is a good coach that is severely lacking in talent, but then so are the Titans.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Vikings @ Lions (-7.5)

In the last couple of weeks the Lions seem to have got their offence working again, and have kept themselves in the fight for a playoff spot. They have a sequence of three divisional games including a final game against the Packers in Lambeau Field. Their defence has been playing brilliantly for most of the season and have led the league by DVOA for weeks. They are one of four teams with a nine and four record and it will be a travesty when we have to lose one for the which ever team makes it out of the NFC South.

This week the Lions welcome a solid Vikings team who have improved across the season and have got themselves to a 6-7 record with a solid effort on defence and a top ten rushing attack. I don’t think that they have enough to beat the Lions in Detroit, but they have won their last two games and only lost to the Packers by three points and I have a feeling they will keep this one close.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

49ers @ Seahawks (-9.5)

There are only so many ways that you can write that the coaching situation in San Francisco is a mess, with all the problems swirling round Jim Harbaugh and an offence that is stuttering, all letting down a solid defence. Even the play of rookie linebacker Chris Borland, who leads the teams in tackles, won’t be enough to wash away the aftertaste of a bitter loss to the team from across the bay. If losing in Oakland wasn’t bad enough, they now have to travel to Seattle.

The Seahawks defence is back with a swagger and they have looked like their old selves for three games in a row. Holding the Eagles to fourteen points in Philadelphia is really impressive and they must be salivating at the prospect of welcoming the misfiring 49ers this week. This number should make me pause, particularly given the shortcomings of the Seahawks passing attack, but they beat the 49ers by sixteen points in San Francisco and I think this could be a very long day for the visiting team.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Cowboys @ Eagles (-3.5)

The Eagles offence got suffocated last week against the Seahawks, managing only a pitiful 139 yards of total offence from a unit that is still fifteenth by DVOA despite the difficulties they’ve had in Chip Kelley’s second year. This week they welcome the Cowboys who are coming off a sold win against the Bears, but it is only two weeks since the Eagles soundly beat the Cowboys in Dallas on Thanksgiving.

I expect Tony Romo to look better than he did in that game as he won’t be working on a short week with a back injury, but the Eagles defence has shown that it can give the Cowboys’ offence problems and the Cowboys defence has looked shaky for weeks now. This could be the perfect pick me up for the Eagles as they go from playing against the fourth best defence in the league by DVOA to the twenty-fourth.

I don’t think the game will be as lopsided as it was in Dallas, but I think the Eagles get back on track in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Saints @ Bears (+2.5)

This is just a mess of a game, and I’m sure this is not what the schedulers had in mind when they designated this game for the prime time Monday night slot before the season.

The Bears continue to struggle and have now lost receiver Brandon Marshall for the rest of the season, although they’ve not been making the best use of him up to now. The defence is a horror show and the offence has been over reliant on screens and short passing, making surprisingly little use of Matt Forte’s talents in the run game or Jay Cutlers big arm in the vertical passing game.

The problem with picking a side in this one is that the Saints are not much better, coming off a fourth home loss in a row. The Saints have only won one game in their last five and yet somehow still have a share of the lead in the NFC South. The defence has been horrible, with Rob Ryan’s vocal breakdowns on the sideline being a feature throughout the season. The Saints offence has shown flashes of its former glory and statistically is not bad, ranking in the top ten by DVOA, but it has been misfiring at crucial moments and something has not seemed quite right with Drew Brees all season.

I almost feel like I am blindly picking this game, but the Saints still have something to play for and the Bears are just horrible on defence. Meanwhile, whilst Drew Brees seems a little off, his stats are really not that much different to previous years, where as we know very well what Jay Cutler is at this point.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Bears