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Thanksgiving Roundup

27 Sunday Nov 2016

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So rather than trying to cover all three games fully I’ll go through the points that leapt out at me over the course of the three Thanksgiving games.

Detriot Lions 16
Minnesota Vikings 13

This was a close game, but throughout it seemed to me that the Lions were moving the ball more consistently on offensive even if they did fall behind in the fourth quarter again. It’s getting to be a feature of the Lions’ season, but once again they managed to come from behind to win.

That said, the Vikings defence is looking back to something like its form from the start of the season, but the offence is still struggling. The loss of receiver Stefon Diggs hurt the Vikings, although it is nice to see Cordarrelle Patterson more on offence, but they still don’t have a running game they can rely on yet and the offensive line is likely going to remain a weakness. I will be curious to see what they do at the end of year in terms of both the line and quarterback, but I expect them to be competitive at least for their remaining games.

The Lions have done enough to lead their division in a down year for the Packers and a very troubled one for the Vikings. The offence continues to get points when they need one, but they are hampered by the defence. I can see them getting into the playoffs, but I think they will struggle against teams like the Seahawks and Cowboys. Still, it seems that everyone, including myself, has had to reassess Matthew Stafford in the wake of his late game heroics this year.

Dallas Cowboys 31
Washington 26

The score was a lot closer than the game was thanks to a late surge by Washington in the fourth quarter, but in truth the Giants were able to dominate this game throughout.

That said, there was a period where the Washington defence was doing a credible job of bottling up Ezekiel Elliott, but the problem is that the Cowboys will not be deterred and with the offensive line they have, you may be able to slow Elliott down but it already seems that he will eventually have his way. The Cowboys ran for one hundred and sixty-three yards in this game, with Elliot just shy of one hundred yards on only twenty carries. That kind of number should help him be fresher going into the end of the season, and Dak Prescott picked up a further thirty-nine yards on the ground. The rookie quarterback’s numbers don’t look spectacular, but he continued to drive the Cowboys efficiently and they have the best record in the NFL for a reason.

Washington’s defensive line did looked okay for large parts of this game, but the offence seemed to struggle for sections of this game to keep drives going.  They lost despite dominating time of possession and total yards in this game, but it should be noted that Dustin Hopkins only made two of his four field goals. It is too easy to say that if he had made them that Washington would have won the game, but it would surely have affected the flow of the game and should not be discounted. There is no shame in going to the team with the best record in the league and losing, but Washington will need to get back to winning ways if they want to stay in contention for the playoffs. Still with the way the offence is playing they stand a fighting chance.

Indianapolis Colts 7
Pittsburgh Steelers

This was a very straight forward game for the Steelers, which always looked likely to be the case once Andrew Luck went into the concussion protocol.

The Steelers did not suffer a dip against opposition they should beat as is sometimes the case, and it was very much the Steeler’s triplet show with Le’Veon Bell running for one hundred and twenty yards with a touchdown, and Antonio Brown catching three touchdowns with just under one hundred yards. Ben Roethlisberger may have only thrown for two hundred and twenty-one yards, but with three touchdowns and a seventy percent completion rate I’m sure he will be okay with the performance. Their defence also put in a good shift, and they will be hopeful of keeping pace with the Ravens in the race for the AFC North.

The Colts could get very little going, and their solitary touchdown owes much to a fake punt play that went for thirty-five yards when punter Pat McAfee completed his pass to Erik Swoope. Although the Colts recorded ninety-one yards from twenty-one rush attempts, this masks Frank Gore’s fifteen carries that yielded only twenty-eight yards. In a game with a career backup starting, the Colts needed more help from their run game to balance their offence and didn’t get it. I didn’t think that Scott Tolzien looked terrible, but he threw several balls high as well as two interceptions chasing a game that the Colts were never really in. I’m sure everyone in Indianapolis will be keeping their fingers crossed that Andrew Luck can make a quick return.

 

Overall we had two competitive games, and one complete blowout, but I enjoyed all three, even if I didn’t spend all day watching them with a huge meal to keep me going.

What I Have Learned this Season, Packers @ Lions, and Week 13 Picks

06 Sunday Dec 2015

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We are one week away from being three quarters of the way through the season, and I know how I’m feeling so what it must be like for the players I don’t know. As I’m finally getting a chance to sit down and write I thought I would take a look at some of the things I have learned through the course of this season, particularly in the light of recent results.

It is a long season. It’s a marathon not a sprint. We are used to the coverage discussing how long the season is, but this year I have really noticed the ebb and flow that occurs during a single team’s season. The New England Patriots may have a 10-1 record, but the injuries have slowly accrued to a point where they have lost their first game, and it wouldn’t necessarily surprise me if they drop some more, at least until they can get Rob Gronkowski back on offence. But it is not just the attrition throughout the season that needs to be taken into account; coaching and progress should be looked at as well. The Kansas City Chiefs had a bad start to the season, going 1-5 before turning things around, winning five straight and getting themselves back into the playoff hunt. If the season ended today they would have a wildcard spot, and whilst the return of their corner Sean Smith has had a huge effect on their pass defence, turning them into one of the better defences in the league, they have also had to deal with the huge loss of running back Jamaal Charles, usually central to theor offence, so there is more to it than one player coming back. That said, too many injuries in one position can completely derail a team. There is no excuse for the state of the San Diego Chargers defence, but there have been so many injuries to their offensive line that you can see why they have had so many problems protecting Philip Rivers this year.

With all that said, sometimes it just takes time for a team to gel. I was as critical as anyone regarding what Bill O’Brien was doing with his quarterbacks in Houston at the start of the season. The old saying that if you have two quarterbacks then you don’t have any seemed very apt. Not only was this causing problems, but despite having some very recognisable names on the defence, including arguably the best player in football, the Texans were giving up a lot of points, giving up over forty twice as they started the season 2-5 as their defence struggled. However, once Ryan Mallet finally pushed management too far by missing the team plane down to Miami and finally got himself cut things started to settle on offence a little. More importantly though, the defence finally seemed to find its identity, allowing opposition offences less than ten points three times in the last four games as they rolled off four straight wins to get them back into the AFC South race.

One team who are very much not moving in the right direction are the Philadelphia Eagles, with one of the things that I misjudged being how their form in pre-season and would translate into the regular season. I was already aware that the teams do not game plan in the preseason, and mainly what I enjoy is getting a first look at the year’s draft class and the development of young players who may not get that much playing time during the actual season. However, everyone was take in by how well the Eagles offence was performing during the preseason, but once the regular season got under way it quickly became apparent that all was not well on that side of the ball. There is a lot of debate as to whether Chips Kelly’s up temp offence can continue to work in NFL, reliant as it is on simple concepts that are repeated frequently as it simply not possible to run that many different concepts at that pace. This in of itself doesn’t worry me so much as what appears to be Kelly’s reliance on his system. I was as impressed as anyone by Chip Kelly’s early success in Philadelphia, and this was only further enhanced after hearing an extended interview with him talking about his practice regime. However, the first problem I see with the Eagles is to do with the level of buy in that he demands of his players, which I can understand as a concept and certainly contributed to his college success. In the NFL though, as good as a coach as you are, there are thirty-one other coaches at the top of their game, with an enormous amount of time invested in preparation. You can find edges through coaching, but at the NFL level such advantages are very fine, and you can very rarely win outright by outcoaching your opponent, at some point you need to create mismatches and have enough players win their one on one matchups to win a game. Kelly though, has shipped out a surprising amount of talent from the Eagles in favour of young players who he can mould, this may work out if he is given time, but the players right now are not as good and you only have to look at the play of the offensive line now compared to when he joined to see that certain groups have taken a step back. Not only is there this to contend with, but if you are a system coach, you walk a very fine line as you need the right players to run your system perfectly and these might not always be available. Finally, if you are an innovator, particularly one with a track record in college rather than in the pros, then people will start to second guess you if things are not going well, and they certainly are not in for the Eagles in recent weeks.

I don’t think there is anything wrong with having a coaching philosophy, in fact having read Pete Carroll’s book in the offseason I think that sitting down and actually developing your philosophy into a coherent core that you can clearly articulate is of huge benefit. That said, I also think that if you introduce a degree of flexibility into your approach, being prepared to compromise to make the most of the players you have, then this can lead to more sustainable success. If you want proof of this then just take a look at the way that Bill Belichick and his staff continually scour the league and get something out of players that other teams have failed to do so.

Further proof of this maxim can be found in the unbeaten Carolina Panthers, who no one was expecting to play like this at the beginning of the year. There were concerns about their offensive line and they lost their leading receiver from last season before the season had even started. However, they are getting what they need out of the players that they have, and there is perhaps no finer microcosm of this philosophy than what they are doing with Cam Newton. There are not too many six foot five, two hundred and forty-five pound quarterbacks in the league (Newton’s size according to the Panthers’ website), with Cam’s ability to run the ball. However, they built a running game around the dual threat of him and running back Jonathan Stuart, as well as utilising his connection with tight end Greg Olson and ability to throw the deep ball. He may not show the touch that you would ideally like, but he has been undeniably effective since Ron Riviera felt Newton was healthy enough during the 2014 season to use the offensive game plan they had been keeping under wraps since the preceding preseason because of the injuries Newton had been carrying. You may still worry about the long term effects of a quarterback taking this many hits, but he is built like a football player, and still has time to work on a transition such a Ben Roethlisberger has made, into a pocket passer.

One of the things that I do think is important in the successful running of a sports club is giving a coach time, which seems to be given in increasingly smaller amounts these days across many sports, and even the NFL is starting to follow this trend. We have had several coaching changes, with two head coaching firings that have brought dubious results, and several coordinators taking the fall. However, the Lions took this a step further when their ninety year old owner declared that enough was enough, and she fired the GM along with the head of operations. This was after Jim Caldwell had fired his offensive coordinator and the coaches that had been working with their offensive line going into their trip to London. This did not produce immediate results, as I witnessed in person as the Lions were systematically taken apart by the Kansas City Chiefs at Wembley. However, following the additional firings and their bye week the Lion’s had won three straight games going into week thirteen including their first win in Green Bay since 1991 off the back of improved defence performances, but crucially an offence that seems to be coming together under new coordinator Jim Bob Cooter. This all leads me quite nicely to Thursday’s return fixture in Detroit.

Packers @ Lions

There isn’t quite time for me to do a full game write up, but there was now way I could skip over the Miracle in Motown, which I am sure you will have heard of by now. If not, the game came down to a last ditch drive, where on what should have been the final play of the game, a facemask penalty called on a Lions’ defender led to one final play with no time on the clock. This has only happened in the NFL a total of five times, and two of them have been this season. In this case, the Lions rushed three and failed to stop a sixty-one yard Hail Mary pass to tight end Richard Rodgers that won the Packers the game. But it very easily could have finished a different way.

In the first quarter the Packers struggled, finding it difficult to move the ball and they ended the quarter seventeen points down. The Lions were able to move the ball, and when Aaron Rodgers threw only his fifth interception of the year, Matthew Stafford immediately answered with a seventeen yard touchdown pass to Calvin Johnson. However, the Packers defence stiffened in the second quarter, but the offence continued to struggle and failed to score before half-time, leading to a twenty point deficit.

The Packers slowly dragged themselves back into the game in the second half, with solid defence and a key strip of Matthew Stafford by Julius Peppers that swiftly led to a second touchdown meaning that the Lions lead was down to six by the start of the fourth quarter.

It has to be said that the Packers offence still struggled in the second half, but third string running back John Crocket added a small spark in the running game, but the most effect methods the Packers found to move the ball were screen passes/dump offs to James Starks, and passes to Richard Rodgers who finished the game with one hundred and forty-six yards from eight catches, including the game winning touchdown to seal the game.

The Packers may have got back to winning ways, but it was not in the way that they would have envisaged, and the Lions will be kicking themselves about how late they left it in the season before they found a formula that works. If the Lions can find suitable replacements for their front office, there are things that they can build on for next season unless they chose to blow things up, but we shall have to see what path they chose to take. The Packers meanwhile have kept themselves in playoff contention, but they will need to find a more stable formula if they want to make sure of getting there and leaving a mark in the post season.

And now on to the rest of this week’s picks:

Falcons @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

The Flacons need to stop turning the ball over if they want to get back to winning ways, and they are running out of time if they want to get back into the playoff hunt given Seattle’s recent improvements. The question will be whether they are going to start this turnaround against a Buccaneers team that have definitely improved in recent weeks. The Falcons might be getting Devonta Freeman back this week, but the Bucs actually rank second in the NFL in rush defence by DVOA according to Football Outsiders, as well as being the higher ranked team in both general and weighted DVOA, which is leading me to nervously back the home team in this one.

Gee’s Pick:         Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:         Falcons

Texans @ Bills (-2.5)

The Bills have been better in recent weeks, but are still up and down, with the only unit on either team I really trust being the recently very stingy Texans’ defence, so that is where I’m picking in this one.

Gee’s Pick:         Texans
Dan’s Pick:         Texans

49ers @ Bears (-6.5)

The 49ers defence has been okay at home in recent weeks and Blaine Gabbert has at least looked like a competent NFL quarterback, but this week they are in Chicago and not San Francisco. Add the travelling across country to the fact that the Bears are progressing in John Fox’s first season and are coming off a road win in Green Bay, and I think I have to back the Bears in this one despite the points.

Gee’s Pick:         Bears
Dan’s Pick:         Bears

Bengals @ Browns (+6.5)

This feels like a trap game for me in that the Browns and Bengals games have often been close contests, with this game being in Cleveland and NFL touchdown leader Tyler Eifert likely missing the game, I could see the Bengals struggling to cover these points. However, there are still so many options for Andy Dalton that I think they will cope in this game against a Browns team who are on a short week.

Gee’s Pick:         Bengals
Dan’s Pick:         Bengals

Jaguars @ Titans (-2.5)

The Jaguars just squeaked out a win only a couple of weeks ago when they entertained the Titans, and with the injury to Allen Hearns you might be tempted to back the Titans at home in this one. I am always wary of long streaks as they have to end at some point, and it has been a very long time since the fans in Tennessee have seen their team win in person, but I can’t bring myself to pick them doing it this week with this many points.

Gee’s Pick:         Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:         Jaguars

Cardinals @ Rams (+5.5)

The Rams under Jeff Fisher have often kept their games with the better teams in the league close, and actually beat the Cardinals in Arizona earlier in the year. However, their offensive line is a mess through injury, they have very little passing game, which allows a defence to focus on bottling up Todd Gurly. The Rams defence might be very good, but the Cardinals offence has been lighting everybody up and I have a feeling they will want to get revenge as they head into St Louis.

Gee’s Pick:         Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:         Cardinals

Ravens @ Dolphins (-4.5)

I’m really torn on this game, as the Ravens have kept every game close, but it took two special teams touchdowns for them to beat the Browns last week, and they are travelling to Miami on a short week to play on the road for a second week in a row. The Dolphins have just fired their offensive coordinator as Dan Campbell was not happy with the play calling or rush/pass balance. However, the Ravens run defence is still solid and I am not sure the Dolphins truly have the passing game to take advantage of the Ravens’ defensive frailties. Almost any result feels in play with this one, and so for the simple reason that I don’t feel comfortable backing either team I will take the points.

Gee’s Pick:         Ravens
Dan’s Pick:         Dolphins

Seahawks @ Vikings (-0.5)

This is another tough game for me to call, and I am getting no help from the line whatsoever. I can see arguments for both sides, but in the end I trust Russell Wilson more than Teddy Bridgewater in what I expect to be a really good game.

Gee’s Pick:         Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:         Vikings

Jets @ Gaints (+1.5)

The Giants are still inconsistent, whilst the Jets have got a little healthier on offence and given that essentially both teams are at home, I think that the Jets will win this one as I believe they are the better team even if their records are not that different.

Gee’s Pick:         Jets
Dan’s Pick:         Jets

Broncos @ Chargers (+4.5)

The Broncos have a formula, whilst the Chargers are a mess despite getting a win last week that I was not expecting. The Broncos defence is still one of the best units in the game, and I expect the Chargers to struggle on both sides of the ball in this one so I think the Broncos will cover on the road.

Gee’s Pick:         Broncos
Dan’s Pick:         Broncos

Chiefs @ Raiders (+2.5)

The Chiefs are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, whilst the Raiders are going through the growing pains of having a young team that possibly still lacks a bit of talent. The Chiefs however are sensing that a playoff push is possible, and so despite being on the road in Oakland, I think they will win this one.

Gee’s Pick:         Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:         Chiefs

Eagles @ Patriots (-9.5)

Wow this is a lot of points, particularly for a banged up Patriots team, and yet I’m still torn on this one. The Eagles have given up over forty points in their last two games, losing to both the Lions and the Buccaneers. I really want to pick the Patriots to cover this one, but I’m not quite brave enough, and with a reasonable lead in the picks competition I don’t need to be taking such risks. I will kick myself if the Patriots cover, but I’m not confident they will.

Gee’s Pick:         Eagles
Dan’s Pick:         Eagles

Panthers @ Saints (+7.5)

This is a lot of points, but Saints defence did not improve last week, and I get the feeling that the Panthers will continue with their focussed approach this week and will cover this spread in New Orleans.

Gee’s Pick:         Panthers
Dan’s Pick:         Panthers

Colts @ Steelers (-6.5)

The Colts have played will with Matt Hasselbeck, but I think they are finally going to meet their match coming into Pittsburgh to face the Steelers who are still very effective at moving the ball. I think the wheels have to fall off at some point for the Colts, and it might be worth watching this game just to see if either head coach makes a final move for the worst fake punt play of the season.

Gee’s Pick:         Steelers
Dan’s Pick:         Steelers

Cowboys @ Washington (-3.5)

I am happy that we can finally write off the Cowboys, and Washington have quietly been an okay home team so I expect them to win this one, with them somehow still being in contention for the division.

Gee’s Pick:         Washington
Dan’s Pick:         Washington

Coaching Stability, talent, and Week 8 Picks

29 Thursday Oct 2015

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We are already approaching the mid-point of the season and yet we still have five unbeaten teams, but this week I want to focus some of the other franchises as there are some curious trends amongst some of the less successful teams.

I wrote after the week four games when the Dolphins fired Joe Philbin that it was unusual to fire coaches mid-season in the NFL. And that certainly used to be the case, although he was the second coach to be fired ahead of a bye week having lost a game in London in the last two seasons. Whilst I am not expecting Rex Ryan to be in trouble yet, Lions Head Coach Jim Caldwell is getting ahead of that possibility after their horrible 1-6 start by firing his offensive coordinator and the two coaches responsible for the offensive line heading into the Lions’ trip to London. As the Dolphins did, the Lions have promoted from within, and I am looking forward to seeing in person what, if any, changes this has on the underperforming Lions offence.

Traditionally, it was always the Monday after the end of the regular season, known as black Monday, when coaches got their marching orders. However, with some teams demonstrating that you can achieve some results with a mid-season switch, it is possible that whilst we won’t see the levels of turnover that has so plagued Premiership football teams over here in the UK, it may become more common to fire head coaches in the NFL and it could be worth tracking certain losing teams as they approach their bye week.

A prime candidate if this sacking of coaches is becoming a more common practice could well be Chuck Pagano of the Indianapolis Colts. They may well currently be the division leader, but they have a losing 3-4 record thanks to their defeat at the hands of the Saints at the weekend. More worryingly, they are visiting the Panthers this weekend and then hosting the Broncos before their week ten bye. There is already talk of discord between owner James Irsay, GM Ryan Grigson, and Pagano. This is perhaps not surprising given that Irsay is sure that he has a franchise quarterback and so must believe they have a championship window, but GM Grigson has not surrounded Andrew Luck with enough good players to win, and whilst this will be a source of some of the friction with Pagano, you only have to look to the fake punt coaching disaster of recent weeks to see that Pagano is hardly blameless either. We will know in a couple of weeks if there is going to be a change, but whilst they have three winnable divisional games left after the bye, time is running out for them to sort the problems in Indianapolis.

So whilst the Lions are firing coaches, and the Colts are at least the centre of a lot of disquiet, other teams are having problems with their talent. I am trying to not become boring on the subject, but I do not think it is a coincidence that apart from having top quality quarterbacks, one of the things that the consistently successful teams have in common is harmony between the front office staff and the coaches. You can’t build a team that wins without having talented players, but it takes more than physical ability to succeed in the NFL. When you are dealing with forty-six players active on game day, plus the rest of the roster and practice squad during the week, you have to have everybody pulling in the same direction. Not everybody on the roster has to be best friends, but there needs to be a mutual respect and a commitment to the work that is required in the NFL. Getting the right players, and keeping them motivated and invested is a vital part of creating a successful team and we have had two high profile incidents that highlight that this week.

I have written about what matters to the Cowboys is production on the field, and to be fair they will put in the extra resources to make this work, which has been successful with Dez Bryant. They even have taken to drafting sensibly in recent years, building themselves one of the top offensive lines in the league through the draft. However, they could not stop themselves from signing free agent Greg Hardy despite the moral argument against adding him to the team. I wrote in the preseason that I was glad that the Bengals showed no interest in Hardy, and this week’s antics demonstrate that even if you are prepared to swallow signing a player with no regard for women, and who is in fact a positive danger towards them, you are also signing up for a whole truck load of extra baggage that goes with his on field production. Apart from missing a practice last week, Hardy watched the Cowboys’ special teams give up a hundred yard kick off return. His reaction was not to offer to play special teams or give some positive encouragement; no he barged into the special teams huddle, slapped away the special teams coach’s clip board and got into a shoving match with him. He later got into a heated discussion with Dez Bryant, a man not unused to side line confrontation, but when Bryant is acting as the voice of reason then you know there is trouble. The only thing that makes this even more bizarre is that Jerry Jones went further than just protecting a team asset after the game when he called Hardy a leader. I don’t understand why you would want this man on your roster, yet alone talking about giving him a contract extension already. I would love to know what the other players actually think of him.

If things are dysfunctional in Dallas, at least they can point to the injuries sustained by their franchise quarterback and top receiver as the cause. The Texans have been woeful this season, and the ongoing quarterback saga took another twist this week. Having missed a practice through over sleeping during training camp, a training camp that was being televised no less. The much talked about Ryan Mallet missed the team’s chartered flight, and to buy his own ticket to get down to Miami. That the Texans released him is not a surprise, nor is it particularly surprising that Bill O’Brien wanted to cut him before the game and that he had to be talked round by Rick Smith into delaying. However, the fact that we know about this is surprising as that disagreement really should have stayed in house. Someone had to leak that, and you have to wonder what their agenda was. This may be it for Ryan Mallet in the league, but given how short of quarterbacks the league is, there may yet be a team out there that will give him a shot in training camp next season, but he would be on very think ice.

If you pay any attention to the scouting of college players, you will no doubt hearing a lot about physical tools, particularly for quarterbacks, but whilst the empirical testing of physical attributes is helpful, there is so much more to being a success in the NFL and it might help if teams paid a little more attention to this.

Moving towards picks, we were much more solid this week, and whilst I maintained my two game lead over Dan, the important thing is that I have a winning record once again. Now onto the week eight picks.

Gee:    Week 7   9-5               Overall   54-51
Dan:    Week 7   9-5               Overall   52-53

Dolphins @ Patriots (-7.5)

The Patriots are playing very well, but they are wearing down through injury and given how banged up they are on the offensive line, I wonder if they will be able to get to Tom Brady. I don’t think the Dolphins will necessarily win this game, and it will be fascinating to see how Dan Campbell’s team do against Bill Belichick’s game plan, but I’m not expecting a blow out so I’m joining Dan once again on Dolphins Island this week.

Gee’s Pick:    Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:    Dolphins

Lions @ Chiefs (-5.5)

The final London game of the season, but it is not quite the contest I thought I would be getting when I bought my ticket. The Lions have really struggled and the Chiefs put together some things last week, I don’t feel good about it, but the Chiefs have a number of players I like on defence so I’m backing them and hoping the points don’t bite me.

Gee’s Pick:    Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:    Lions

Buccaneers @ Falcons (-6.5)

The Falcons got back to winning ways last week even if it was ugly. This could be the game for them to get themselves going again against a Buccaneers team going through growing pains with their rookie quarterback, and a defence that has not looked convincing. I can see Gerald McCoy having a field day against the Falcons offensive line, but whilst the Falcons have their flaws, I think they have enough to win and I just hope they cover.

Gee’s Pick:    Falcons
Dan’s Pick:    Falcons

Vikings @ Bears (+1.5)

The Bears may be better than we first thought, but they are not a good football team and the Vikings are quietly going along nicely at 4-2 this season. I can’t look past them in this game.

Gee’s Pick:    Vikings
Dan’s Pick:    Vikings

Bengals @ Steelers (+0.5)

This game worries me, but then I always seem to say that about the Bengals. Coming off their bye to play the always awkward Steelers in Heinz Field, and I have this feeling that it’s going to be a close one field goal game like so many in the AFC North. The real problem is that Ben Roethlisberger could well be back for this game, the Steelers offence has terrifying weapons, and their defence has been keeping them in games despite the questions surrounding them. I think the Bengals will win, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Steelers win at home, but I’m taking a leaf out of Dan’s book for this one and trying to positive. Just don’t ask me about the game on Sunday!

Gee’s Pick:    Bengals
Dan’s Pick:    Bengals

Cardinals @ Browns (+5.5)

We don’t know who the Browns quarterback is going to be on Sunday, and Josh McCown’s success with the offence is the one thing this Browns team had going for them. I think they may well struggle on offence against the Cardinals opportunistic defence and I think the Cardinals should have enough to win this. I’m a little worried about the Cardinals on the road as I’ve already been bitten by them once already this season when they played the Steelers, but they could have won that game and I’m hoping the Cardinals cover the points in this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:    Cardinals

Titans @ Texans (-3.5)

This is a horrible pick to have to make as the Texans have been blown out twice this season whilst giving up over forty points. However, the Titans look likely to be without Marcus Mariota again this season and haven’t demonstrated much since their week one win against the Buccaneers, which was the template of their season last year. I’m reluctantly backing the Texans in this one as they are at home, but I don’t feel good about it.

Gee’s Pick:    Texans
Dan’s Pick:    Texans

49ers @ Rams (-8.5)

The 49ers were pretty solid on defence last week, but their offence was awful and visiting the Rams in St Louis is not likely to improve their performance on that side of the ball, particularly given their protection issues. The points give me a slight pause, and I expect the 49ers to have a reaction to their disappointing loss to the Seahawks, but I expect the Rams to win and I can’t bring myself to pick the 49ers to cover.

Gee’s Pick:    Rams
Dan’s Pick:    49ers

Giants @ Saints (-3.5)

The Saints are coming off a second straight win as they welcome the Giants, but I’m really not sure how much I can trust their improvements. The offence is moving the ball better, there are signs that the defence is coming together, and Sean Payton also worked in a fake field goal last week. Meanwhile, the Giants were outgained last week but got touchdowns in all three phases of the game, although they had to get a one hundred yard kick off return touchdown to win the game. So whilst this is a game that might tell us things about both teams, it’s not one that I’m exactly keen to pick. That said, I’m going to rely on home advantage and stick with the Saints momentum. Worriedly…

Gee’s Pick:    Saints
Dan’s Pick:    Giants

Chargers @ Ravens (-3.5)

The Ravens season is mired in problems with the passing game on both sides of the ball, and having fallen to the Cardinals last week, welcome a Chargers team who if nothing else can move the ball through the air. However, their defence is not good and it is possible that Justin Forsett who has only flashed this season might be able to take advantage. The problem is that the Ravens have not demonstrated any consistency this season and whilst the Chargers just got beaten by the Raiders, I don’t think that Joe Flacco has the tools to keep up with Rivers and the Chargers offence.

Gee’s Pick:    Chargers
Dan’s Pick:    Chargers

Jets @ Raiders (+1.5)

The Raiders really have a candidate for offensive rookie of the year in Amari Cooper who has been so good for them, but the Jets are significantly better on defence than the Chargers, whilst the Jets offence is ranked a surprising sixth by DVOA! There is a significant jump to the Steelers ranked fifth, but apart from being able to run the ball, Ryan Fitzpatrick has been getting good production from both Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall at receiver. In a game that is near as damn it a flat pick the winner, I’m backing the better team even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:    Jets
Dan’s Pick:    Jets

Seahawks @ Cowboys (+6.5)

The line worries me about this one, but whilst the Cowboys have the tight end in Jason Witten to test the Seahawks ongoing issues with tight ends, the Seahawks are beginning to play much better on defence as they settle in with their new defensive coordinator. I am worried that this is a pick based on my distaste and distrust of what is going in Dallas, but they are also ranked twenty-sixth in DVOA in rush defence and Marshawn Lynch was looking much more like himself last week.

Gee’s Pick:    Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:    Seahawks

Packers @ Broncos (+2.5)

The unbeaten record ends for one of these teams this week, and given the problems the Broncos are having on offence I think this is the game where their defence finally can’t do enough to win the game.

Gee’s Pick:    Packers
Dan’s Pick:    Packers

Colts @ Panthers (-6.5)

I’ve written extensively about the Colts earlier in this week’s column, so I’ll simply say that a really good defence and a strong running game is exactly what they don’t need to be facing, especially on the road. I don’t foresee any issues for the Panthers in covering this line, which is probably the kiss of death, so I’ll apologise in advance to the fans in Carolina but I’m backing them anyway in this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Panthers
Dan’s Pick:    Panthers

NFL Wildcard Preview

03 Saturday Jan 2015

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I got up early on Monday to watch the condensed Bengals at Steelers without knowing the score, and was thoroughly miserable about the result, so it was with some reluctance that I went through the final sheet of my picks spreadsheet. However, thanks to the late games, I managed to pull two games back on Dan, and so despite being behind for most of the season I managed to pull out a one game win. This happiness lasted for an hour or two before my worry about the upcoming weekend began to set in.

Still, we now come to the part of the year where I get to see all the games so let’s take a look at the upcoming Wildcard Weekend.

Cardinals @ Panthers

DVOA:                       Cardinals                     Panthers

Overall                       22nd                              25th
Offensive                    23rd                              20th
Defensive                   7th                                15th
Special Teams            21st                              30th

There are times when trying to follow an entire league where you get things wrong. The human brain is used to looking for patterns and narratives, and we are also used to putting labels on things and leaving them there. In something as complicated as sport this can be a problems as we often try to fit a narrative to random events, but it is also possible to miss the development of a team across the season if you are not watching carefully enough. I have seen every play of the Bengals season so far, but it is simply not possible for me to do this for thirty-two teams. Looking back, I still had the impression I got watching the Panthers in week six in mind when I wrote about them last week, and this is despite going through the coaching tape that told a different story in week nine.

I went back and watched them beat up on the Falcons in the final game of the season to get them into the playoffs, and I think is going to be an interesting game. The Panthers are playing better football now than they were in mid-season. The defence has really come together with a physical front seven that is now getting a pass rush, and a young secondary that seems to have coalesced into a functional unit. They may only be ranked fifteenth by DVOA, but I would suggest they are playing better than that currently and they are an impressive unit.

On offence, the Panthers seem to have carved themselves an identity as a running team. They use multiple run options from within the same play, and I’m amazed at how much Cam Newton is running considering that it really isn’t that long ago that he sustain fractures to part of his back in a car crash. He is still firing the ball in the passing game, but there is a little more touch, but mainly there seems to be a coherent identity that is working for this team. They are going up against a run defence that is ranked seventh in the league, but that did give up a pair of two hundred yard games at the end of the season so they may be able to make this work in this game.

The Cardinals have limped their way into the playoffs, and despite having an 11-5 record, this is going to be a much closer game than the gap in regular season win total might suggest. The Cardinals coaching staff have done a brilliant job in coping with injuries, but having powered away to a 9-1 start, their season has limped home and it looks like the week fifteen injury to Drew Stanton was a quarterback too far.

The Cardinals have struggled in the run game for most of the year, but having first lost their vertical passing game when Carson Palmer went down for a second and final time, the loss of Drew Stanton has seriously hampered this unit. Whilst Ryan Lindley can make some good looking throws, he also routinely makes bad decisions and is 0-2 as a starter for the Cardinals, whilst throwing two touchdowns to four interceptions. He will be going against a physical defence that I suspect will be able to get turnovers against a young and inexperienced quarterback.

The defence has been the foundation of the Cardinals season, and ranked inside the top ten by DVOA for most of the season. It is a unit that uses a large number of defensive backs and pressure to force mistakes and cover the modern passing game. They rely on their corners standing up in outside coverage so they can frequently blitz and this pressure has only increased as defensive coordinator Todd Bowles seems to have been given licence to take more risks given the issues the Cardinals are having on the offensive side of the ball.

I think that this should be a fascinating game between two teams with really good defences and I will be interested to see how the Cardinals cope with the Panthers running attack, and how they try to attack the Panthers defence.

Ravens @ Steelers

DVOA:                       Ravens                                    Steelers

Overall                        5th                                8th
Offensive                    9th                                 2nd
Defensive                    8th                                30th
Special Teams             2nd                                12th
The Saturday schedule is rounded out with what should be a bruising encounter between AFC North rivals.

The Steelers have had an erratic season with some huge wins, and horrible losses to bad teams, but they managed to win out in December to take the division. They have mainly done this behind an offence that is ranked second in the league by DVOA, and that can be truly terrifying. The problem is that a major cog in that offence, second year back Le’Veon Bell, who has looked like the best back in the league for long stretches of the season is going to miss this game with a knee injury he picked up in the final game against the Bengals. However, the way to attack this Ravens defence is through the air as their secondary has been hit hard by injuries, and the Steelers have the passing attack to do this. Whether they will be able to use the empty backfield sets with the running back split out as a receiver remains to be seen, but Antonio Brown is as good as any receiver in the league. The o-line has looked much more solid than has often been the case in recent Steelers seasons, and they will need to stand up in pass protection if they are going to have success this week.

Unusually for the Steelers, the defence has been the problem this season, ranked an uncharacteristic thirtieth by DVOA, they have been patchy with injuries and age apparently catching up with them. They have done okay in recent weeks and it has been noticeable that they have been leaving the younger secondary players in the line-up so they have consistent personnel rather than having the stalwarts Ike Taylor and Troy Polamalu go in and out the line-up whilst they have been struggling with injuries. It is a sign of the problems that the Steelers have had that they pulled James Harrison out of retirement, but whilst he has shown flashes of his old self and has managed five and a half sacks in eleven games, this is a defence that has been merely coping for large parts of the season.

The Ravens are an interesting team that for large parts of the season looked like the most complete team in the AFC North, but couldn’t quite overcome the problems they developed in the secondary to win the division.

On offence the Ravens have looked good for most of the year, working behind a rejuvenated running game that saw Justin Forsett gain 1266 yards for the season, and a very solid season in the passing game. Joe Flacco has quietly thrown for nearly four thousands yards, and more importantly has throw twenty-seven touchdowns with only twelve interceptions. Steve Smith has been struggled to maintain the early hot start he had, but managed to gain over a thousand yards receiving and added some fire to the offence to go with Torrey Smith and Owen Daniels. This turn around from a DVOA ranking of thirtieth last year demonstrates what a good hire Gary Kubiak was as offensive coordinator.

The problem for the Ravens down the stretch has been the number of injuries they’ve had in the secondary. They have got away with this to an extent as they haven’t really faced a tough passing attack but this is going to change this week. The Ravens will have to hope that the fearsome combination of Elvis Dummervil and Terrell Suggs as pass rushers will get enough pressure to disrupt Ben Roethlisberger and his receivers. It may well help that they are getting Haloti Ngata back from a four game suspension, particularly as the rookie tackle Timmy Jernigan who has been playing so well in Ngata’s absence will miss the game with a foot injury.

Whilst I would never discount the Ravens, I fear that their secondary will be exposed in this game and whilst Le’Veon Bell will be a huge miss for the Steelers, I think their passing game is more terrifying than anything the Ravens have to offer.

Bengals @ Colts

DVOA:                       Bengals                       Colts

Overall                        13th                              12th
Offensive                    18th                              17th
Defensive                    14th                              13th
Special Teams             6th                                8th
The Colts are an interesting case as if you look at the DVOA rankings, you would think this is a well balanced team. However, this is a team that is built on a couple of exceptionally good players that are masking what is to me an unconvincing roster. These are brave words considering the beating they gave the Bengals earlier in the season and how rotten the Bengals playoff results in recent years have been, but I will try to justify them below.

I’m not sure there is a team that relies more on their quarterback to win than the Colts. They have a running game that is ranked twenty-seventh in the league, and are a team who thought it was a good idea to trade a first round pick for Trent Richardson. This team goes where Andrew Luck takes them, but the o-line does not give him great protection and it is only because TY Hilton is amazing at getting open, and the support Coby Fleener and an ageing Reggie Wayne give in the passing game that Luck is able to drag them along. However, Luck has been throwing a lot of interceptions recently and has been having a big problem with fumbles. There is no question that Luck is a really good quarterback, but he can only overcome so much and this team ask him to do a lot.

On defence the Colts have played well in patches, and have a really good corner in Vontae Davis, but in truth I am surprised by their ranking by DVOA. That said, if you look at their record you can see problems against better teams as they got pounded by the Patriots in the run game, giving up 246 yards as part of five hundred yard day, and they gave up over six hundred yards against the Steelers. The Bengals have been running the ball really well recently behind rookie Jeremy Hill and they will need to hold up against this if they want to win.

The Bengals have coped pretty well since losing both coordinators from last year, but having said that it was a playoff win or bust this year, it all comes down to this game.

On offence, the talk of a commitment to the running game that there was in the offseason has solidified in recent weeks around a running game headed up by rookie Jeremy Hill with Giovani Bernard spelling him. There have been problems in the passing game with AJ Green battling injuries for large parts of the seasons and I suspect he will miss this game with a concussion. This is almost a microcosm of the problems this season as he’s been battling a bicep injury he sustained going for a ball that sailed on Andy Dalton, and picked up the concussion when trying to fight for yards at the end of the Steelers game. The problem with Andy Dalton is that whilst he has got his team into the playoffs for the first four years of his career, he can be inconsistent and these problems tend to surface in big games. That said, the Bengals looked good in getting their Monday night win against the Broncos, and new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is really helping Dalton succeed by focussing on the running game and asking him to do less, whilst it often felt like Jay Gruden was asking him to do too much in past years. The Patriots demonstrated that you can be physical and run on the Colts so hopefully this can work in this game.

On defence, the Bengals have slipped with the departure of Mike Zimmer to be head coach of the Vikings, and have struggled against the run for large parts of the season. They are top ten in pass defence, which is a measure of how good and deep their secondary is as the pass rush has been patchy all season. However, injuries at linebacker, particularly missing Vontaze Burfict for most of the season has really hurt them in the run game. The defence line has not been quite up to where it was last season, but Geno Atkins is still coming back to full form since his ACL injury and Margus Hunt has been out recently as they try to patch up the loss of Michael Geathers to the Buccaneers.

I think that the Bengals can finally win this game, and get revenge for the shut out loss earlier in the season. Both the Bengals and the Panthers came out flat the week after they played five quarters of football, and I think this contributed to the Bengals horrible loss against the Colts. If the Bengals can look after the ball and run the ball effectively, then they can finally get that playoff win and try to push on, but I would never count out a team with Andrew Luck at quarterback.

Lions @ Cowboys

DVOA:                       Lions                           Cowboys

Overall                        14th                              6th
Offensive                    19th                              4th
Defensive                    3rd                                22nd
Special Teams             31st                              13th
The final game of the weekend pits the Cowboys great offence against the Lions top notch defence.

The Cowboys finally got their winning season, but the overhaul on this team was not flashy, it was a sustained investment in the offensive line, which has resulted in one of the most impressive units in the league. The o-line enabled DeMarco Murray to break Emmitt Smith’s single season rushing record for the Cowboys and enabled him to become the only back to start the season with eight straight 100 yard games, breaking Jim Brown’s previous best of six. Not only have done this, but Tony Romo regularly gets such great protection that he can sit in the pocket for five or six seconds without having to worry about the oppositions pass rush. That said, they are going against the third ranked offense by DVOA, that will offer them a real challenge, but Romo has had more support than he’s ever had, and the results in the pass game have flourished alongside the running attack.

The Cowboys defence however, has been held together by smoke and mirrors all season, with co-ordinator Rod Marinelli crafting a credible defence with a dearth of talent. They are not spectacular, but they are playing hard for their coach who has been working overtime to create way to rush the passer and keep his team in games. This unit may be a problem if the Cowboys get deeper into the playoffs, but they might not be in this game.

The Lions have all the talent at the skill positions to be a good offence, even if Calvin Johnson has struggled with injury as they finally have a second receiver to go with him. In fact, Golden Tate has actually led the team in receiving yards and receptions this year, but the problem for this unit has been the o-line that has often struggled and this unit has never quite taken off except from when they’ve played the Bears. The other problem is that Matthew Stafford has never really convinced as a quarterback, and he has a habit of locking onto receivers, and whilst this is not exactly a bad plan when you are throwing to Calvin Johnson, it doesn’t necessarily win you the big game.

What has been winning games for this team has been the defence that I would have said was playing with more discipline this season. However, how Ndamukong Suh won his appeal having stomped on Aaron Rodgers I do not know. He has been part of a fearsome defensive line that has helped this defence lead the league in run defence by DVOA. They also have one of the league’s standout coverage linebackers in DeAndre Levy, and a pass defence that has been just as good as the rush defence.

This could very well be the game of the weekend, but I would think you just have to trust Tony Romo more than Mattew Stafford, who is 0-16 on the road against teams with a winning record. I’m not usually a fan of these kinds of statistics, but that one does seem to speak of a problem.

I’m really looking forward to this week’s games, so roll on the postseason football.

NFL Week 13: Thanksgiving Roundup

29 Saturday Nov 2014

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I had a really great time watching all three Thanksgiving games unfold, smiling as I enjoyed the football and watched all three of my picks go wrong. The games were interesting if one sided in all three contests so let’s take a look at what happened:

Bears @ Lions

The first thing that struck me about this game as I was watching it was that neither team was running the ball effectively. But whilst the Lions persevered with it and eventually had some success having established their passing game, the Bears ran for only eight yards from thirteen attempts and were variously using screens and passes to Forte out of the backfield as an alternative.

The problem with this is that Jay Cutler is not a rhythm passer, and if you are doing this then you are not making the best use of his arm talent. Only one of his two interceptions came at a point that truly affected the game, but the Bears simply did not move the ball well enough throughout this game to compete.

The Bears did move the ball effectively in their opening drive without attempting a single run, and thanks to a Matt Stafford fumble giving them good field position, they finished the first quarter with a fourteen-three lead, but they would only score a third quarter field goal for the rest of the game.

I have written before about the dangers of changing your mind when making picks, I wrote about I thought the Lions offence could get back on track and that I was worried about Jay Cutler’s play against this defence, but I changed my mind listening to other people talk about the game. Verily it played out how I thought and in the end the Lions won very comfortably.

The one thing I will remember with the Lions offence is that their o-line is not very good. The Bears have not been rushing the passer that well this season, but Jared Allen was getting consistent pressure to go with his pair of sacks. Combine this with it being Matthew Stafford’s first year in a new system and you can possibly see why he has struggled. He spread the ball around in this game and the Lions have some very winnable games coming up so we will have to see how they go.

Eagles @ Cowboys

This was a really interesting game. I thought that the Cowboys would win as I had more faith in the Cowboys o-line and Tony Romo than in Mark Sanchez, but I was wrong.

The Eagles defence played very well in this game, and although Tony Romo had a lot of time behind the Cowboys excellent o-line, they could not sustain drives. I put part of this down to the play calling as they were very conservative and having established that they would run on first down predominantly, they could have tried to use play action but didn’t. However, the other problem was that Romo just didn’t play that well, he missed throws and only managed a couple of long passes whilst racking up two interceptions and no touchdowns.

The Eagles on the other hand ran the ball very effectively, and whilst I could still see the things that worry me about Sanchez, he was efficient throwing for two hundred yards and a touchdown. The Cowboys’ defence were able to hold the Eagles to field goals for four drives, but struggled to get stops and the different in the pace of the offence showed up with the Eagles running seventy-five plays to the Cowboys’ fifty-eight despite their only being fifty seconds between their time of procession.

It appears that whilst they Eagles are a step down from the likes of the Packers or Patriots, but they’re also a step above the Cowboys who I am a little worried about. They did not look good in this game and I can see them having problems when they play the Colts and have to visit the Eagles

Seahawks @ 49ers

Sometimes you get a pick wrong and it was beyond your control, and sometime you feel like an idiot. I knew that the 49ers were struggling on offence but they were horrible in this game.

The much vaunted o-line from last year has regressed drastically, and Colin Kaepernick’s play has gone backwards too. This team managed a paltry 164yards of total offence and were unable to get either the run or pass working in this game. I don’t think it is a good idea to just avoid Richard Sherman’s side of the field like the Packers did in the opening game of the season, but you can’t afford to throw the kind of balls Kaepernick did for his pair of interceptions. In fact, he’s probably lucky he was only picked off twice as he looked horrible throwing the ball all game.

However, the San Francisco defence looked as good as their offence looked bad. They were not getting much time off the field thanks to the offence but after a touchdown in the first quarter, they held the Seahawks to field goals for the rest of the game.

The problem for the 49ers is that part of their difficulties on offence is their quarterback, but this is very much not the case for the Seahawks. They are just as reliant on the run game for production, but this is because of the quality of skill players Russell Wilson has to throw to. However, his ability to escape the rush is as good as anyone in the league and he seems to have a great feel for when to run and when to get rid of the ball. I get the feeling that receivers will be a point of emphasis for the Seahawks in the offseason.

Overall, I think that the 49ers will fall short of the playoffs and that there could well be an overhaul of the coaching staff. This would not be a surprise given that Jim Harbaugh is already half out the door thanks to his broken relationship with owernership/management, but something has to be done about the offence as Greg Roman is simply not getting it done with that unit.

The Seahawks look to be coming together at the right time, but there are structural issues with the roster and whilst I don’t think anyone will relish playing them, they are a couple of levels below the monster they were last season.