In a way I don’t want to write this week’s column because if there is one position in the NFL that gets too much praise and blame it is the quarterback, not to mention all that gets written about them, but given the importance of the position you can understand why this is the case. I want to take a look at a specific aspect of the position, namely quarterback development, and use this to cast my eye over some of the more talked about players in the league.

The genesis of this column start with something I mentioned on the podcast last week when I was talking about what Greg Cosell mentioned about quarterbacks, specifically that he had been told that the greatest aid to a quarterback’s development was experience, and that the trick was to amass enough reps that the game slowed down for a player whilst they still had the physical tools to take advantage of it.

With the Bengals heading into their bye week with a 6-0 record for the first time since the 1988 season when they went to the Super Bowl, and only the third time in their history, much attention has been on their quarterback Andy Dalton. Even though he has lead the Bengals to the playoffs in each of if his four previous seasons, the fifth year quarterback has never won a playoff game and has earned himself a reputation for failing in high pressure games, particularly when they are nationally televised. A current theme for the Bengals’ season has been to ask what has changed for Dalton this year.

It is typical of how our society operates these days that we start searching for a quick fix reason for why a player has improved, but I think that what has happened in Cincinnati is a combination of natural player progression and the team surrounding Dalton. The obvious place to start is that the Bengals are much healthier this season on offence, tight end Tyler Eifert and receiver Marvin Jones didn’t play last year, whilst AJ Green was fighting injuries and was not himself. This year they are all healthy and the depth and balance has really helped the Bengals succeed. Another part of their success is that Hue Jackson is now in his second year as coordinator, enabling him to run through the full gamut of his play book. We have seen unbalanced lines and successful passes to backup linemen as well as the usual trick plays that Mohamed Sanu can offer with his history as a college quarterback.

So is the success Dalton is having this season simply a product of his environment? I would argue that there is evidence this isn’t the case, although these factors are definitely playing a role. You always have to be cautious with training camp stories, but one them familiar to anybody who frequents the Bengals.com site will be that Dalton has been working with the Dr Tom House in the offseason to work on his throwing mechanics. This in of itself is not a new thing as this is not the first season working with this training group who also look after Tom Brady among other elite throwing talents. However, this year he is also having them check in with him during the season, and already Geoff Hobson the editor of Bengals.com is writing here about how Dalton is retaining the new mechanics better according to one of the coaches from that team. Now I will remain properly sceptical about this, but it would make sense as he has now been to two offseason camps, and it is so hard to improve anything during the season that you would expect player progress to be incremental with occasional jumps as things click, and this is what seems to be the case with Dalton.

And this is not all, I recently heard Dave Lapham, ex Bengals linemen and radio commentator, talking on the Gridiron podcast about the fact that on a Tuesday, which is a player day off for the Bengals, Dalton is in the building working with the coaches on the game plan for the following week.

I don’t think that any single one of these factors is the one that we should point to and go that’s the reason for this year’s success, like so much in life it is more complex than that. It is also worth noting that not all players can be expected to improve at the same rate, but there definitely seems to be less patience in the modern game, and with a task as complex as playing quarterback in the NFL, which is so reliant on others doing their jobs around you, seems short sighted. However, it takes a special kind of owner to have the kind of patience with such a long term strategy if they don’t have an established coach or structure.

If you look around the league, everybody got their quarterbacks in different ways. The Patriots famously picked Tom Brady in the sixth round of the draft, where as the Packers equally famously picked Aaron Rodgers as he slipped down the first round of the draft despite already having an elite level quarterback already on the roster. Both have also led their teams to unbeaten records through six weeks, as has Cam Newton who was the first player taken in the 2011 draft, the same draft where the Bengals picked Andy Dalton in the second round. The Panthers have not surrounded Newton with the same kind of talent, but they have moulded their offence around their quarterback to take advantage of his ability to run the ball as well as throw. This seems to be working very well for the Panthers this season, and has done in the past, but it always worries me when a team exposes a player to the kind of hits you get when the quarterback becomes a defined runner, and at some point they have to transition that QB into playing a more traditional pocket passer role or their career will get cut short.

For several years people questioned the picking of Andy Dalton over Colin Kaepernick, who was the very next pick after Dalton in that 2011 draft, but whilst Kaepernick had early success and has played in a Super Bowl, if you compare the way their careers are currently progressing then the Bengals pick no longer needs defending. There are a lot of other problems in San Francisco, but Kaepernick does not seem to have progressed in terms of reading defences, going through his progressions or his accuracy, and this looks like it may well limit the length of his career in the NFL, particularly if the team don’t commit to shaping their offence around his running skill set like they have done in Carolina.

Finally, at the other end of the scale, Peyton Manning is our final undefeated quarterback, but whilst in previous years this would have likely been down to him, it has been anything but that this year. The window of physical ability seems to be slamming shut for Manning, and even though he was able to hit Emmanuel Sanders for a beautiful long touchdown, he is throwing too many bad balls. Not only that, but as a player stops being able to rely on their body, they start to make mental mistakes as they try to compensate, and it would appear that we are likely heading into the very final stretch of Manning’s career. Whilst it is unlikely that anything will change until this team starts losing games, the success the Broncos have had is likely not sustainable, and then it will be time for them to address the cyclical question that faces all NFL franchises, what do we do about the quarterback? There is no one way to deal with this issue, but how they are developed seems to be something that is too often overlooked in the media, even if not by the teams themselves.

That said, given our picks last week, maybe I should be keeping quiet about judging NFL teams and media, but let’s see if I can get myself back into an overall winning record this week.

Gee:    Week 6   5-9               Overall   45-46
Dan:    Week 6   6-8               Overall   43-48

Seahawks @ 49ers (+5.5)

The 49ers are coming off a win, and a pair of improving performances from Colin Kaepernick, but whilst the Seahawks are having some problems adjusting to their new defensive coordinator, I think they will have more than enough to cope with the 49ers limited offence. This is one of those lines that worry you, but I’ll put my faith in the talent of Seattle and hope that they continue to work Jimmy Graham into their offensive plans.

Gee’s Pick:    Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:    Seahawks

Bills @ Jaguars (+4.5)

This is a real tough one for me to call as neither team is truly at home. The Bills are dealing with injuries to Tyrod Taylor and Sammy Watkins, who look not to be available for this game. The problem is that the Jaguars have not managed to put enough good play together consistently to win. The Bills managed to put up twenty-one points against the Bengals last week with EJ Manuel at quarterback, and Watkins missing for a chunk of time, so although the points make me hesitant, I will back the Bills in London

Gee’s Pick:    Bills
Dan’s Pick:    Bills

Falcons @ Titans (+4.5)

The Falcons showed their weaknesses last week in New Orleans, but the coaching staff will have learnt a lot about their team and there were certainly plenty of coachable moments. I think things get back on track against the Titans who didn’t put much of a fight last week against a resurgent Dolphins team. The other thing that worries me about the Titans is their coaching, and I thought Ross Tucker made a very interesting point about the sacks given up by the Titans in his discussion with Greg Cosell this week. According to Ross, once a player has been beaten twice for sacks, the rest are on the coaching staff as they either need to help that player with the scheme or get someone else in there. I think the Falcons will get back to winning ways in this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Falcons
Dan’s Pick:    Falcons

Browns @ Rams (-5.5)

The Browns have finished their last three games within three points of their opponents, so my reflex pick would be the Browns in this one. However, the Browns have faced two bad defences in those games, and the Broncos were singularly ill equipped to take advantage of the Browns thirty-first ranked rush defence by DVOA. However, this week they are on the road against a Rams team whose defence is playing excellently, and who may not have a good ranking of their rush offence, but they have Todd Gurley who racked up one hundred and fifty-nine yards against the Packers before their bye week. I think this is a game the Browns fail to keep close.

Gee’s Pick:    Rams
Dan’s Pick:    Browns

Vikings @ Lions (+2.5)

The Lions managed to get their first win last week, but there is still a lot of dysfunction and whilst the Vikings are not firing on all cylinders in terms of their offence, I have faith in Zimmer’s defence. I think they have more than enough to go into Detroit and get the win.

Gee’s Pick:    Vikings
Dan’s Pick:    Vikings

Saints @ Colts (-4.5)

This is a really hard game for me to pick as I was really impressed with the Saints offence last week, but I still felt their defence took advantage of situational factors and played poorly against the run. The Colts however do not have a good rush offence, are struggling with Andrew Luck’s play this season, and are not great on defence. I’m picking this based on Drew Brees starting to look like Drew Brees again, but I’m not convinced about it.

Gee’s Pick:    Saints
Dan’s Pick:    Saints

Steelers @ Chiefs (+1.5)

The Chiefs season seems to be falling apart, whilst the Steelers have remained competitive despite the fluctuations at quarterback. It is never easy to play in Arrowhead Stadium, but I think the Chiefs will be coming to England off the back of a loss.

Gee’s Pick:    Steelers
Dan’s Pick:    Steelers

Texans @ Dolphins (-4.5)

The question about the Dolphins is whether the reaction Dan Campbell got is sustainable, but they certainly played more like the team we were expecting them to be in the preseason. The Texans benefitted from being more settled at quarterback last week, but their defence still ranks in the twenties by DVOA. I’m going to follow Dan in his blind faith in the Dolphins for this week.

Gee’s Pick:    Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:    Dolphins

Jets @ Patriots (-9.5)

The Patriots are playing really well despite some problems with their offensive line, but the Jets defence is too good for them to run away with this game and so whilst I’m not sure that the Jets will win, I’m sure the game will be closer than ten points.

Gee’s Pick:    Jets
Dan’s Pick:    Jets

Buccaneers @ Washington (-3.5)

I am really not sure about this game. The Washington defence has not been good over the last few weeks, whilst Kirk Cousins has been throwing too many interceptions. Meanwhile the Buccaneers have flashed on defence, and been inconsistent on offence as they have been going through the growing pains of a rookie quarterback. I’m basing this pick on the thirteen places between them in DVOA rankings and that the game is in Washington, but I don’t like it.

Gee’s Pick:    Washington
Dan’s Pick:    Buccaneers

Raiders @ Chargers (-4.5)

The Raiders have improved this season, but whilst the offence will likely move the ball on the Chargers and their twenty-sixth ranked defence, Philip Rivers only just lost their shoot out to the Packers, and I think that the loss of Justin Tuck will hurt the Raiders defence a lot.

Gee’s Pick:    Chargers
Dan’s Pick:    Chargers

Cowboys @ Giants (-4.5)

The Giants ran into an Eagles team who are struggling, but not on defence and that enabled them to win ugly against the Giants. The Cowboys though are a different proposition and I’m not convinced that the switch to Matt Cassel is going to jump start the Cowboys offence.

Gee’s Pick:    Giants
Dan’s Pick:    Giants

Eagles @ Panthers (-2.5)

The Eagles got their win last week with defence, and they have been running the ball better, but this week they face the fifth ranked defence by DVOA in the league. The battle between the Eagles offence, and the limited but effective offence of the Panthers should be fascinating, but in the end I’m backing the unbeaten team at home.

Gee’s Pick:    Panthers
Dan’s Pick:    Panthers

Ravens @ Cardinals (-7.5)

The Cardinals may have struggled on the road, but they are welcoming a Ravens team who have a pass defence that will be ripe for the Cardinals to take advantage of. As long as Carson Palmer protects the ball a bit better this week then the Cardinals should have no problems in beating a Ravens team who are likely to struggle to move the ball on them as well. It feels very strange to make this pick, but the Ravens just aren’t a good team this year.

Gee’s Pick:    Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:    Cardinals

I was listening to a couple of podcasts over the weekend, one talking about philosophy and the difference between perception and truth, and another where Bill Simmons was talking about how a sports writer is usually right or wrong. Now I am not the kind of person to write a takedown piece just to generate traffic, but because I am an NFL obsessive this did get me thinking about what I am trying to do as a writer and specifically how I was approaching one of the teams that I am struggling the most to predict this season.

I am currently 1-4 in picking against the spread for games involving the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the only game I got right involved them going up against the Patriots, not exactly a difficult pick. The Jaguars have garnered a fair amount of good will in the UK with their commitment to the playing in London, and as a consequence of their repeated presence have naturally had more coverage over here than a team with their record might otherwise have garnered. It also helps that Gus Bradley is well liked and is a very positive person who is being given time to rebuild the Jaguars through the draft. However, they have never won more than four games with him as head coach, and currently stand as 1-4.

The media narrative surrounding the team is that they are building towards success, and that this could be the year that they could attain respectability even if the playoffs remain out of reach. I don’t want to delve into a metaphysical analysis of the nature of objective truth, but as the Jaguars are not a team I am watching week in week out, I decided to brave the Jaguars at Buccaneers week five game to take a closer look for myself.

I am no stranger to the dangers of hope, during the Bengals horrible run from 1998-2002 I didn’t go into the season thinking the team were doomed to double digit losses, but the proof was in the team’s results. In this game I saw a lot of the same things from those days, there is potential, but both teams were guilty of making the kinds of mistakes that lose you games. Also, we have a tendency to talk about good and bad players in the NFL, when the truth is that even the worst of them are professionals with physical skills or an understanding of the game that are likely far in excess of our own. The margin of error between success and failure is so fine that it only takes a few mistakes in key situations to change the result of a game, a slight lack of understanding to take you from a solid starter to ending your NFL career.

The Jaguars have been unable to get both sides of the ball working at the same time this season, and this loss to the Buccaneers must be so frustrating for the defensively minded Gus Bradley.

The Jaguars really do have promise on offence, I liked both Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson as receivers, and if they can work their big free agent signing tight end Julius Thomas into the game as he comes back from injury then they could have all the options they need in the passing game. There were also some flashes from rookie running back TJ Yeldon that made me think that things could come together very nicely for the Jaguars on offence. This is particularly true when you start looking at the development of their quarterback Blake Bortles, he threw for over three hundred yards in this game with four touchdowns and one interception. More importantly, he was able to throw some of those touchdown passes through tight windows, and in one play as the pocket broke down he was able to escape pressure and buy enough time for TJ Yeldon to come open in the end zone.

It is harder for me to comment on the defence as the Buccaneers found a weakness and kept exploiting it. There were plays were the Jaguars front would penetrate and stop the run for a loss, but the Jaguars essentially lost this game by giving up over one hundred and eighty yards on the ground as Dough Martin ran for over one hundred yards and two touchdowns as well as catching a third touchdown. With Bradley’s history as a defensive coach you would hope he could get this side of the ball to play well week in week out, but we will have to see.

So what is the truth about the Jaguars? Well like anything with this number of variables it is hard to tell, but there is more than the occasional glimpse of potential to this team and I hope for Jaguars fans that things do finally come good because I do see how they could. I will be watching them more carefully over the next couple of weeks to see how things develop, and whether they can get that elusive Wembley win in their week seven trip to London. Dan should expect some more texts from me announcing that I’ve gone with the Jaguars again.

Now on to the picks, with Dan pulling a game back on me last week I had better hit the mark in this week’s games.

Gee:    Week 5   8-6               Overall   40-37
Dan:    Week 5   9-5               Overall   37-40

Falcons @ Saints (+3.5)

This game has the potential to be a real blow out. The Falcons having been playing so well, and the Saints are really struggling. I don’t know how much is age, how much is the injury, and how much is the players around him, but Drew Brees has not looked good, whilst the defence is dead last in defensive DVOA and we’re already seeing friction between Sean Payton and Rob Ryan. They play the games for a reason, but it’s tough for me to see anything other than a big Falcons win in this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Falcons
Dan’s Pick:    Falcons

Bengals @ Bills (+2.5)

As a Bengals fan I am worried about this game. The Bills have been up and down on defence with Rex Ryan’s pressure schemes seeming to produce mixed results, whilst on offence they have been struggling to move the ball over recent weeks and Tyrod Taylor has a sprained kneww. However, as good as the Bengals have looked so far this season, they have to lose at some point and there is a part of me that is still waiting for the wheels to fall off, but I don’t think it will be in this game.

Gee’s Pick:    Bengals
Dan’s Pick:    Bengals

Bears @ Lions (-2.5)

The Lions are in such a mess right now, and I was so excited about them coming to London in week eight. The defence fell off again last week and who knows if we will see a fit DeAndre Levy this season. Things are even worse on offence with Matthew Stafford being benched during the last game. Meanwhile the Bears have quietly won two straight games under John Fox, who may not have won a Super Bowl in Denver, but he knows how to work with this kind of roster and it appears that the Bears are a better team that we thought at the start of the season.

Gee’s Pick:    Bears
Dan’s Pick:    Bears

Broncos @ Browns (+4.5)

The Browns are not the team I thought they were going to be, but Josh McCown has been undeniably effective moving the ball over the last two weeks, I’m just not sure what the long term plan is for them at quarterback given his age. The good news is that their poorly ranked defence, which is dead last in run defence DVOA is welcoming a Broncos team that are misfiring on offence and haven’t been able to run the ball at all. The Broncos are unbeaten so it is still too early to be talking about dropping Peyton Manning, but with his reduced effectiveness he has to at least protect the ball better for them to keep winning. Their defence will continue to be excellent even without DeMarcus Ware for a couple of weeks, but you can only succeed for so long when one side of the ball is performing so much worse than the other. I expect a close game, and having only missed picking against the Broncos by a half point last week, I’m going against them again as they visit Cleveland, even if I do expect them to win.

Gee’s Pick:    Browns
Dan’s Pick:    Broncos

Dolphins @ Titans (-2.5)

I really don’t know what to make of this game. The Titans were in an ugly game last week where neither team were able to move the ball. However, their defence has definitely been more effective this season and this could come into play in this game. The Dolphins will be hoping than new Head Coach Dan Campbell will produce a reaction in this game, but whilst the change in defensive coordinator and new attitude might help that woeful side of the ball, it is not going to suddenly improve their offensive line. It will be interesting to see how the situation develops, but I’m not backing the Dolphins until I’ve seen something with my own eyes that convinces me that things have changed.

Gee’s Pick:    Titans
Dan’s Pick:    Dolphins

Chiefs @ Vikings (-3.5)

The Vikings are coming off a bye to welcome a Chiefs team whose season is falling apart around them. The talent in their front seven has not stopped this team giving up too many points on defence, and they just lost Jamaal Charles for the year who is so central to their offence. I don’t think the Chiefs are exactly a bad team, but it feels like a lost season for them and I don’t expect them to be able to cope with the Vikings on the road.

Gee’s Pick:    Vikings
Dan’s Pick:    Vikings

Washington @ Jets (-5.5)

The Jets defence is right up there with the Broncos for the best in the league, and they can run the ball effectively on offence, I’m just not sure they should be giving five and a half points to anyone. This Washington team are definitely headed in the right direction, the defence seems to be coming together and they have been able to run the ball in some games. The problem for me is that their defence is not as good as the Jets, and I don’t think they will be able to get much going on offence. I simply don’t trust Cousins against that Jets secondary, and so whilst I don’t like the points, I also don’t think the NFC East is a good division this year so I’m worriedly backing the Jets.

Gee’s Pick:    Jets
Dan’s Pick:    Washington

Cardinals @ Steelers (+3.5)

This looks to be one the best games of the week. The Steelers were able to get the job done on Monday night despite Mike Tomlin’s clock management and losing seconds to clock errors. They were aided by injuries to the Chargers line, but the defence and their play makers, including Michael Vick, did enough to get the win on the road. However, this week they welcome a Cardinals team who are rolling and deserved to be mentioned alongside the remaining undefeated teams. There are still questions about the Steelers’ secondary and in Carson Palmer we have a quarterback with the ability to test them. This is a hell of a swing in terms of points, but the only team to be within four points of the Cardinals this season was their divisional rivals the Rams who beat them in week four, and I think they will get the win in Pittsburgh.

Gee’s Pick:    Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:    Cardinals

Texans @ Jaguars (+0.5)

This is where I compare what I saw this week with the Jaguars against the Texans, who have been woeful this season. The Texans can’t defend despite having one of the best defensive players in the league, and they’ve been all over the place with their quarterbacks. I would be playing Hoyer as I think Mallet makes too many mistakes, and this is one of the few games where it might matter, but I am once more picking the Jaguars.

Gee’s Pick:    Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:    Texans

Panthers @ Seahawks (-6.5)

This is a tricky game for me as we have seen a few cracks in the Seattle defence this season, and even with Kam Chancellor back they couldn’t stop the Bengals comeback in the last quarter. More worryingly for me, their offensive line is still really struggling in pass protection and so Russell Wilson is still under too much pressure. However, I was really impressed with Thomas Rawls who is averaging 5.6 yards per carry this season, and the run game was looking better last week. The Panthers have done really well so far, and have beaten the teams in front of them, but Cam Newton is running too much and that can only last so long. Their defence however is really good, and I foresee a close defensive game. I don’t know who will win it, but I don’t see why the Seahawks are getting the extra points so I’m backing the Panther to be less than a touchdown behind at the end of the game.

Gee’s Pick:    Panthers
Dan’s Pick:    Panthers

Chargers @ Packers (-9.5)

The Packers have not been the offensive juggernaut of the early weeks, but they still have Aaron Rodgers even if he did look mortal last week. However, this year the defence is ranked inside the top ten in defensive DVOA, even if the run defence is rated near the bottom of the league. They welcome a wounded Chargers team, whose offensive line suffered another injury last week, and were only able to move the ball thanks to Philip Rivers outstanding play, but they are soft on defence and I’m not sure I would back anyone against the Packers at home this season unless they are getting more points than this.

Gee’s Pick:    Packers
Dan’s Pick:    Packers

Ravens @ 49ers (+2.5)

This is a tricky one for me as Kaepernick managed to get a little something going last week, and the 49ers at least pushed the Giants into coming from behind in the fourth quarter to win the game. This week they welcome a Ravens team who have just been bad, I’ve talked about their problems at receiver and secondary, but it turns out that in addition to losing Terrell Suggs for the season, Elvis Dummervil has been fighting a groin problem all season and had to come out of the game last week resulting in very little pass rush. This is a match of two 1-4 teams, but it’s just possible that the Ravens are simply not going to be good this year, and with them going across country to play the 49ers, plus giving them points… I’m not ready to back them in this one.

Gee’s Pick:    49ers
Dan’s Pick:    Ravens

Patriots @ Colts (+7.5)

The Patriots are on such a roll, and the Colts really could have lost to the Texans last week so this is a simple pick for me, even with the Colts getting this many points.

Gee’s Pick:    Patriots
Dan’s Pick:    Patriots

Giants @ Eagles (-3.5)

The Eagles got their offence going last week, but I have to wonder how much was the Eagles game plan and how much was the Saints woeful defence. The Giants are going to pose a sterner test, and I’m not sure what the Eagles have done so far this season to gain an extra half point.

Gee’s Pick:    Giants
Dan’s Pick:    Giants

Things are afoot with the Wrong Football, which meant that I overlooked the post I was meant to put up announcing the teams that Dan picked before the games were played on Sunday. This will have been particularly annoying to Dan as he had a better week than me and has already won week five, it’s just a matter of how many games he will claw back, but for the record these were his picks for the Sunday games with his selections in Bold:

Washington @ Falcons (-7.5)
Bills @ Titans (+2.5)
Bears @ Chiefs (-9.5)
Seahawks @ Bengals (-1.5)
Browns @ Ravens (-6.5)
Rams @ Packers (-9.5)
Saints @ Eagles (-5.5)
Jaguars @ Buccaneers (-2.5)
Cardinals @ Lions (+2.5)
Patriots @ Cowboys (+9.5)
Broncos @ Raiders (+5.5)
49ers @ Giants (-7.5)

Tonight he is backing the Chargers as they host the Steelers, and I’m in the strange position of wanting my division rivals to win so I get a game back this week. I’m not hoping that hard…

As the majority of NFL teams reach the quarter mark of the season and take stock of their start to the season, I’m having a rethink about the format of the blog as I’m spending too much time writing up a 3.5-4k picks blog that is big enough that it is stopping me for watching coaching tape and writing about what I see. So I am going to comment on some of the themes from last week, anything that strikes me about the upcoming games, and finally a quicker run through the matchups plus our picks. Let’s not talk about how we both did last week.

The obvious theme that comes out of week four is presented to us by the rotten start the Dolphins have had to the season and the firing of their head coach Joe Philburn. There is more to a team winning than the quarterback or coach, in fact an American football team requires more players, more coaches, and more coordinated effort than any other sporting endeavour I can think of. From the players, to the coaching staff, behind the scenes personnel, and the front office, there are so many ways that a franchise can gain a competitive edge, but this also leaves a huge amount of room for dysfunction. I don’t want to pile on to the Dolphins too much, for the sake of Dan’s sanity as much as anything, but things are clearly not running harmoniously down in Miami.

It is unusual to fire NFL coaches mid-season as so much work is done before the start of the season, and there is so little time to work on new things once the season starts, that in most cases you just have to ride it out with an eye on developing young talent and what is coming up in the draft. However, Miami have too much talent and have invested too much into the short-term to let things slide any longer, and so Philburn had to go. I’ll leave the in depth dissection of Philburn’s tenure to fans of the Dolphins and the media, but the change in coach doesn’t necessarily mean a change in outcome. There were plenty of people impressed by Dan Campbell’s introductory press conference, but it was interesting to listen to Coach Reinebold on the Inside the Huddle podcast point out that despite what he proclaimed when questioned, Campbell will have an opinion on the defensive coaching having gone against them in practice all season, and so he is either not being as forthright as some would believe in that press conference, or he is not paying as much attention in practice as you would want. Either way he has leaped over both coordinators, which may not be that surprising given how they have been performing on both sides of the ball, but is not standard and it will be interesting how the new head coach goes for the rest of the season. The Dolphins seem to very much be under the Chinese curse of may you live in interesting times.

If you look wider, at team records across the league, you will see a lot teams that are familiar to us through offseason splashes in the last couple of years struggling whilst those teams often at the top tend to be quietly developing their teams through careful free agent transactions and the draft. There is no single way to build a football team, but it appears that if you are hearing too much about your team without having to search out information explicitly, then a rough season might be on the way.

With that said, it’s time to take a look at the upcoming games, passing quickly over the mess Dan and I made of our picks last week.

Gee:    Week 4   6-9               Overall   32-31
Dan:    Week 4   4-11             Overall   28-35

Colts @ Texans (+2.5)

The Texans have been a bad team so far, they’re not playing well on defence despite having Sirr JJ of Watt, and Head Coach Bill O’Brien really made a mockery of stating that Hoyer wouldn’t have a short leash by benching him after three quarters in the first game. This team are a living testament to the old saying that if you have two quarterbacks, then you don’t have one, and I’m not surprised that they only started scoring points against the Falcons last week when Hoyer started playing in garbage time, but apparently Mallet remains the starting quarterback.

This week they welcome a Colts team that did enough to win last week with a forty year old backup quarterback against a Jaguars team that can’t quite find a win, but I still don’t trust their defence or offensive line. With the quarterback questions surrounding the Colts I’m still trying to make up my mind as I go through this final edit, Dan has already changed his pick, and I’m reluctantly following suit given the Texans are at home, but I am not happy about it.

Gee’s Pick:    Texans
Dan’s Pick:    Texans

Scheduling note: Dan is away this week, so he has picked the Thursday night game, and will get the rest to me before Sunday so I can get them up on the blog.

Washington @ Falcons (-7.5)

That wasn’t exactly a more concise write up for the last game, but this on is easier. The Falcons are transformed this season, and even a slightly banged up Julio Jones couldn’t slow them down last week. The NFC East is something of a mess this season, but Washington do seem to be able to hang their hat on solid run offence and defence, and look to be finally heading in the right direction, but this is a step too far for them.

Gee’s Pick:     Falcons

Bills @ Titans (+2.5)

The Titans finally are beginning to carve themselves an identity with a blitzing defence, and a rookie quarterback showing promise. Meanwhile the Bills are a confusing 2-2 as they switch between terrifying defence and picked apart. We always knew that the Bills offence could be hit and miss with a first year starter at quarterback, but the better quarterbacks seem to be finding something against Rex Ryan’s pressure schemes. In years to come this probably changes, but I’m not ready to back Marcus Mariota in this one yet.

Gee’s Pick:     Bills

Bears @ Chiefs (-9.5)

I’m struggling to let go of my hope for the Chiefs. They have so much of what I enjoy, a great running back and a stunning pair of pass rushers. The problem is that a combination of offensive line play and Alex smith holding onto the ball on offence, plus a defence that is giving up to much in the passing game, means that they are not winning against the tough teams they’ve faced so far. However, whilst the Bears managed a win last week, I don’t expect them to give the Chiefs too many problems, but I’m not sure that the men in red will be blowing anybody out in the near future, even in front of their famously raucous fans at Arrowhead. I can’t quite believe I’m backing the Bears…

Gee’s Pick:     Bears

Seahawks @ Bengals (-1.5)

Good teams win at home, so the cliché goes, but it has been a foundation of the Bengals recent playoff appearances. They are playing very well this year, although I’d like the pass coverage to improve a bit, but that is a bit picky given that they are still ranked 14^th by Football Outsiders in pass defence. They welcome a Seattle team that have got back to 2-2 by the skin of their teeth, but whilst the defence is looking better with the return of Kam Chancellor, I’m not convinced by their offence, which is not running the ball at all well. If you only just beat the Lions with your famous home field advantage, I’m not backing you to win in the Bengals’ back garden.

Gee’s Pick:     Bengals

Browns @ Ravens (-6.5)

The Ravens haven’t managed the latest roster transition as well as we have come to expect, with a lack of depth at receiver and corner really costing them, but at least they ran the ball a bit better in Pittsburgh in a game they were determined, if a bit lucky to win. The Browns skill players are playing better than I was expecting, and Josh McCown has demonstrated over the last two weeks why he is starting, I’m just not sure what it established over the long term. I expect the Ravens to win, especially given the Browns run defence, but not by seven points or more, even with the Browns travelling to Baltimore

Gee’s Pick:     Browns

Rams @ Packers (-9.5)

The Packers showed they could win another way, and still beat the 49ers by two touchdowns. The Rams defence has now managed to play well for two straight weeks, and if rookie running back Todd Gurly can show more flashes as they work him into the lineup then they might start to edge towards progress, but I don’t see them having any luck against the Packers in Green Bay. In fact, looking at the schedule I’m not sure the Packers will lose in Lambeau during the regular season.

Gee’s Pick:     Packers

Saints @ Eagles (-5.5)

Oh what a holy mess the Eagles are in, but whilst some are enjoying their schadenfreude, I’m just finding it all a bit sad. I was hugely impressed by Kelly in interviews last year, but I did not like a number of his offseason moves, and once the regular season hit the limitations of attempting to beat someone by scheme in a professional setting are all too prevalent. That said, if their line was playing better then they might be able to run the ball better, which has always been the mainstay of this offence.

This week the Eagles welcome a Saints team that got a win last week with the return of Drew Brees. That said, they took overtime to do it and I’m really not impressed with the Saints defence so far. After a long game, and travelling, I have a feeling that they will not have enough to beat the Eagle in Philadelphia, I’m just not sure how close the game will be.

I don’t have a lot of faith in either team, particularly with these points, but I’m reluctantly picking the Eagles, but if you like a bet please stay away from this game!

Gee’s Pick:     Eagles

Jaguars @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

The Buccaneers are going to struggle all year, they can’t rely on their defence, and famous Jameis does not look settled in the pro game, is looking down receiver and throwing too many interceptions. This is one of the games the Jaguars have to have circled, even if they are on the road. They are missing key players yet keeping themselves in games against similar level competition, but they can’t get over the hump. I have a feeling they might win this one though, and as I’m getting points as well…

Gee’s Pick:     Jaguars

Cardinals @ Lions (+2.5)

The Lions played tougher on defence last week, and really should have won the game, but the offence is misfiring. There is a lot of disquiet about Matthew Stafford in Detroit, but with a ropey offensive line and no running game, the Lions aren’t exactly putting him in the best place to win. The problem is that he has never made good decisions, and this week he faces a Cardinals team that will be desperate to get back to winning ways after laying an egg against a division rival. I still believe in the Cardinals coaching staff and I’m backing them to get back to winning ways in this one.

Gee’s Pick:     Cardinals

Patriots @ Cowboys (+9.5)

The Cowboys have a well coached defence, but they didn’t have the players before they started to get injured, and add to that an offence that has lost their starting quarterback and the receiver that stretches the field for them and you have a recipe for trouble. A visit from the Patriots is not what they need to get back on track, and the Cowboys must be kicking themselves for not getting a win in one of the last two weeks as I don’t see a way they will in this one. I’ll be interested to see if the early bye affects the Patriots later in the season, but I see nothing in this game that makes me worrying about the Patriots covering.

Gee’s Pick:     Patriots

Broncos @ Raiders (+5.5)

The Raiders are officially an up and coming team in my book, but they are also young, which means they make mistakes and so they were unable to get a second straight win on the road last week. This week however, they welcome a Broncos team that are struggling on offence as they can’t run the ball consistently, and Peyton Manning threw two bad picks in their close win against the Vikings. The Broncos are a team that right now is relying on their defence, which I suspect means a series of tight games, and whilst I think they will win more than they lose, I think this is too many points to give to the Raiders.

Gee’s Pick:     Raiders

That’s right folks, he just picked the Raiders against an unbeaten team with that defence, I’d better get back to watching coaching tape soon and rely on what I can see with my own two eyes.

49ers @ Giants (-7.5)

The Giants have a solid run defence, and an offence that seems to be coming together as the line play improves and Manning begins to get more timing with the receivers not named Beckham. The 49ers have played one of the toughest schedules in the league so far, and travelling across the country in this game won’t help. They are playing some tough defence in stretches, but are an absolute mess on offence and desperately need to run some bootleg and simpler concept pass plays for Kaepernick who has been a truly dreadful quarterback this season.

Gee’s Pick:     Giants

Steelers @ Chargers (-3.5)

The Chargers always have a chance with Philip Rivers, but whilst there have been good signs from rookie running back Melvin Gordon, injuries on the offensive line have meant that Rivers is taking too many hits. More worryingly, the defence has not been good, and is particularly bad against the run. A ranking of 25^th by defensive DVOA is not what you want when Le’Veon Bell is coming to town. The Steelers should have won the game last Thursday, with Michael Vick demonstrating his limitation, but doing enough to win if the clock management/kicking game had been better. It is not a good spot to be picking an underdog on the road, but they’ve had extra days to get over last week’s overtime and the extra half point sways me that this close game will result in a Steelers cover or win.

Gee’s Pick:     Steelers