Sunday Thoughts

04 Sunday Dec 2016

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It has been a frustrating season as a Bengals fan, but there comes a point where you have to accept that the playoffs really are out of reach, and whilst that happened to me a couple of weeks ago, the optimist in me still tries to hang on to hope for a couple of weeks. I am dreading what Fletcher Cox could do against the Bengals this week, but mainly I’ll be curious about what is going on with the rest of the league.

The Cowboy ran out eventual winners in an intriguing Thursday night game, but even though the Vikings defence is back to where it was earlier in the season, they couldn’t stop the first team to record double digit wins from getting their eleventh. There are two teams that could join them this week, but whilst the Raiders and Patriots stand a good chance of getting their tenth wins, injuries to Derek Carr and Rob Gronkowski could be causing differing degrees of anxiety to fans. Derek Carr came back in the game to play with his nastily injured finger, it is amazing what adrenaline will do for you, but it is possible it might affect his play. More worrying for the Patriots though will be the loss of Gronkowski for the rest of the season after having back surgery this week. You would back the Patriots staff to be able to adjust to this loss, but it is a big loss as Gronkowski is a real difference maker and is a favourite target of Brady as well as being the best tight end in the league.

No team is unaffected by injury at this time of year, but it is a question of whether you have picked up a critical injury and how strong you are at that position in the first place. The Seattle Seahawks offensive line has not been good all season, but in recent weeks they had improved enough when combined with Russel Wilson getting healthy to make the Seahawks look frightening again. However, they picked up more injuries last week and the Seahawks could only register five points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They are still very much in control of the AFC West, which is very much going through a down season this year, but they will have their eyes on bigger prizes and I will be curious to see how well their offence goes this week against a Panthers team who have been more competitive in recent weeks, even if the results don’t necessarily reflect it.

It felt like a strange week of games to predict, there are a lot of teams whose performance is varying week to week, and when there are questions surrounding even the best of teams, it is beginning to feel that the Cowboys might be putting themselves on a level of their own as they keep grinding out wins.

I think the question of overtime could rear its head again this week with another game that did give us a winner last Sunday, but still went to the end of overtime. One of my picks is resting on whether this extra pick is enough to let the Jaguars cover, but given the previous results of teams coming off a full overtime period it is not beyond the realms of possibility that the Jaguars could pick up a win. I know that Americans are culturally obsessed with there not being draws, but if a full period of overtime is that much of a disadvantage to the participating teams the following week, I’m still not sure that in an era of concern over player well-being, that we are not better off just accepting that draws happen.

Let’s see what happens with the Chiefs and Broncos when they play today.

AAF: AJ Klein

04 Sunday Dec 2016

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So this week’s amateur adventures in film is based on a comment from Ross Tucker on his podcast this week that AJ Klein was one of the best backup linebackers in the NFL, that he doesn’t start because they have Thomas Davis, Luke Kuechly, and Shaq Thompson, but that he looks a lot like Kuechly when he’s out there and made a bunch of plays. I thought I would take a look for myself.

Now his stat are pretty good with five tackles, and a play that doesn’t seem to have been credited as a sack where he stopped a scrambling Derek Carr as he tried to make a first down by stopping him behind the line and forcing a fumble. This was a very nice play as Klein started the play by showing blitz, then dropped back into coverage before chasing Carr to the side line. However, as the game moved on there were a couple of big plays that Klein was involved with.

Very few linebackers are as good as Luke Kuechly when he is in full flight, but Klein certainly looked good for large parts of this game, dropping into coverage smoothly or attacking gaps against the run. However, whilst he was capable of running with the slot receivers or tight ends, he gave up several plays in this spot including a touchdown to Clive Walford in the fourth quarter. In fact the fourth quarter was a difficult period for Klein. He did not get his head around and so was only able to wave an arm as the ball from Carr went to Walford in the back of the end zone for aforementioned touchdown. However, Klein also gave up a fifteen yard facemask penalty when trying to disengage from a block by Michael Crabtree against a run play, and gave up a thirty-two yard pass play to Crabtree as he followed him down the field. Not only did the pass get completed, but Klein gave away a declined pass interference penalty that ensured the pass was effective regardless of whether the catch was made. A matchup of a linebacker against a receiver down field is always going to be advantageous to the receiver, so I am not going to be too critical of this play, but it was a bad moment.

It does however highlight one problem when you are going through film, which is you can’t know the call. You would frequently see the linebackers swapping round as the Raiders shifted, and you could see Klein follow his player out when he had plays, sometimes slowing down or breaking up a play with his closing speed such as when he reached running back Latavius Murray as he received the pass to break up the completion or again later in the game when he tackled Murray for a loss. He was also unafraid to attack the hole or take on blockers, but the Raiders line is a very large group of men and I wouldn’t exactly say he won his battles with Gabe Jackson. That said, when a team only gives up fifty-six yards on thirty-one attempts, then your run defence is doing something right and whilst he wasn’t slipping off blockers easily, nor was he getting pancaked and when you’re taking on three hundred pound plus linemen that is not to be sneezed at.

As ever, I feel a little under qualified for grand pronouncements on players, but it was really interesting watching AJ Klein play and he certainly seemed to move in space well when dropping into zone, which he did a lot. It may not look to me that he diagnosed plays as fast as the man he was replacing, but that’s an unfair comparison for many a linebacker in the league and I did think he looked good for parts of this game, even if did give up some key plays. However, he kept on coming and I’ll be interested to see how the Panthers get on against the Seahawks in tonight’s game.

Week Thirteen Picks

04 Sunday Dec 2016

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Another okay week for both of us, but we are still well behind a winning record, and Dan maintains his single win lead.

Gee:      Week 12   9-7                     Overall   82-95
Dan:      Week 12   9-7                     Overall   83-94

Chiefs @ Falcons (-3.5)

The Chiefs are coming off a win, but had to play an entire extra quarter to get it and so with them on the road against a strong Falcons team I am backing the Falcons to cover this line, even if it does make me a little nervous as the addition of Justin Houston really added a spark to the Chief’s defence last week.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

49ers @ Bears (-2.5)

There is very little to separate these teams, with the Bears suffering so many injuries, but getting an okay performance from Matt Barkley whilst the 49ers have struggled since their week one win, but Colin Kaepernick was looking better at quarterback last week. In the end I am going to back the home team in this one, with the 49ers travelling across the country but I do not feel confident about it.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Eagles @ Bengals (+1.5)

The Bengals keep things close but lose this season, but I have been dreading the sight of Fletcher Cox going up against an offensive line that has not protected well this season. I would love to be proven wrong, but with all that has happened with the Bengals this season, I can’t pick them in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Broncos @ Jaguars (+5.5)

This pits a team that played and entire extra quarter against a Jaguars team who have been truly horrible. The last two times I have seen this happen in recent years both teams who played the fifth quarter have lost. I don’t want to back the Jaguars in this one, but the situation is telling me to and as they only have to keep within six I am very nervously going to back them to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Lions @ Saints (-5.5)

This is a lot of points for the Saints to be giving up, and whilst I trust Drew Brees and their offence to get points, the Lions have been finding a way all season and I think they keep this one closer than six. I don’t like any of my picks this week it seems…

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Texans @ Packers (-5.5)

This is another horrible game for me to call as the Texans have been struggling on offence, but have a very competent defence. This week they visit a Packers team who got a very solid win last week with Aaron Rodgers looking more like himself, but this team is still flawed. The Texans have the options on offence to hurt a weekend Packers’ secondary, but Brock Osweiler has not been good this season. I don’t want to pick the Packers to beat anyone by six, but given that the Texans record is a product of their division I’ll pick lightening to strike twice in Green Bay.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Rams @ Patriots (-13.5)

After giving up forty-nine points to a Saints team with an axe to grind last week, I might have been tempted to pick the Patriots to cover this line earlier in the week, but with Rob Gronkowski done for the season with a back injury, I think the Rams can keep this game closer than two touchdowns. I’m certainly not going to say they can win as they come across the country to play Brady in New England, but a sneaky cover I think is on the cards.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Dolphins @ Ravens (-3.5)

It looks as if the Dolphins will have two of their starting offensive line back in left tackle Branden Albert and left guard Laremy Tunsil, but they will be going up against one of the better defences in the league in the Ravens. The Baltimore team’s offence has been struggling though, and giving up that extra half point at home I am going to back the Dolphins in what will likely be a close game.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Bills @ Raiders (-3.5)

The Bills have had a very up and down season, but are coming off a win against the Jaguars, yet they face a very different prospect traveling to Oakland to play the Raiders. The Raiders have a very exciting offence and a defence that is doing enough for them to win and seems to have improved in the last few weeks. The Bills may have got back to a winning record, but beating a faltering Bengals team and the Jaguars does not indicate to me that a team has enough to live with Raiders.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Giants @ Steelers (-5.5)

This is the first of two games where the line doesn’t make much sense to me. The Steelers are coming off a solid win against a struggling Colts team who were without Andrew Luck. They have three really good players on offence, but the Giants are eight and three for a reason, and whilst they have not always looked good in getting there, the defence has played well enough for this to be a closer game than six points. I can easily see the Steelers winning this one, but I would be surprised if they cover this.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Washington @ Cardinals (-2.5)

The Cardinals have an excellent defence, but between the fall off in play of Carson Palmer and their struggles on the offensive line the Cards are struggling. Meanwhile Washington have one of the more explosive offences in the league and I think they should have enough to beat the Cardinals on the road, which they will need to do to stay in the playoff hunt.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Buccaneers @ Chargers (-3.5)

This should be a cracking game as the Buccaneers have shown real progress in recent weeks, and the Chargers have got over their early season finding new ways to lose streak that undermined a team that has been competitive in all of their games. The line does make me pause, but I think that the Chargers will take this one and I am backing them to cover, although this could be a close game.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Panthers @ Seahawks (-6.5)

The Panthers’ struggles have been well documented this season, and a trip to Seattle is never easy, but with the injuries the Seahawks have at the moment I think this line is a little generous. The Panthers were able to hang with the Saints last week, and whilst the Seahawks defence is a lot better even with their current injuries, the Seattle offensive line is not good and they only put up five points last week. I expect a reaction from Seattle, but I’m just not sure if they are going to win by a clear touchdown.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Colts @ Jets (+2.5)

With Andrew Luck having been cleared to play after his concussion and looking to start this should at least be a competitive game between two teams that have not set the league alight this season. The Jets defence has been surprisingly lowly whilst the offence has been cursed by poor quarterback play and injury. The Colts have struggled all season, but I think they have been the more consistent team, which is why they are giving away two and a half points on the road. The Jets haven’t won since they played Cleveland, but Ryan Fitzpatrick did play better against the Patriots last week. I am tempted to back the home team getting points, but in the end I find myself picking the Colts. I don’t feel confident about this at all.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 34

04 Sunday Dec 2016

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This week’s games included Thanksgiving, so aren’t you thankful that there’s a couple of bloody good blokes who can tell you all about it! We take a look at the state of the Panthers and the Browns as well as looking back at the best of Week 12’s action. We also make our picks of week 13, and there’s only one way (well, two if you include the Blog!) to find out what Gee’s thankful to the NFL for – all here on The Wrong Football Podcast!

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 34

Thursday Night Pick

01 Thursday Dec 2016

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And yet again I’m fiddling with the blog schedule for reasons to do with having a book out and possibly more on the way, but rest assured I’ll be writing something general about the NFL on Sunday ahead of the rest of the week thirteen games and the misery of another Bengals loss.

Anyway, on to tonight’s Thursday Night Football matchup!

Cowboys @ Vikings (+3.5)

The Vikings kept the game close against the Detroit Lions last week, with an improved defensive performance, but there are still struggling on offence and this week welcome the team with the best record in the league. I am really looking forward to this game, which features two teams with a full week’s rest having both played on Thanksgiving, but this is not enough points for me to do anything other than pick the Cowboys. This is the kind of good team reason I needed not to back the home team as the Cowboys will be able to keep plugging away on offence and I think will run out fairly easy winners.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Thanksgiving Roundup

27 Sunday Nov 2016

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So rather than trying to cover all three games fully I’ll go through the points that leapt out at me over the course of the three Thanksgiving games.

Detriot Lions 16
Minnesota Vikings 13

This was a close game, but throughout it seemed to me that the Lions were moving the ball more consistently on offensive even if they did fall behind in the fourth quarter again. It’s getting to be a feature of the Lions’ season, but once again they managed to come from behind to win.

That said, the Vikings defence is looking back to something like its form from the start of the season, but the offence is still struggling. The loss of receiver Stefon Diggs hurt the Vikings, although it is nice to see Cordarrelle Patterson more on offence, but they still don’t have a running game they can rely on yet and the offensive line is likely going to remain a weakness. I will be curious to see what they do at the end of year in terms of both the line and quarterback, but I expect them to be competitive at least for their remaining games.

The Lions have done enough to lead their division in a down year for the Packers and a very troubled one for the Vikings. The offence continues to get points when they need one, but they are hampered by the defence. I can see them getting into the playoffs, but I think they will struggle against teams like the Seahawks and Cowboys. Still, it seems that everyone, including myself, has had to reassess Matthew Stafford in the wake of his late game heroics this year.

Dallas Cowboys 31
Washington 26

The score was a lot closer than the game was thanks to a late surge by Washington in the fourth quarter, but in truth the Giants were able to dominate this game throughout.

That said, there was a period where the Washington defence was doing a credible job of bottling up Ezekiel Elliott, but the problem is that the Cowboys will not be deterred and with the offensive line they have, you may be able to slow Elliott down but it already seems that he will eventually have his way. The Cowboys ran for one hundred and sixty-three yards in this game, with Elliot just shy of one hundred yards on only twenty carries. That kind of number should help him be fresher going into the end of the season, and Dak Prescott picked up a further thirty-nine yards on the ground. The rookie quarterback’s numbers don’t look spectacular, but he continued to drive the Cowboys efficiently and they have the best record in the NFL for a reason.

Washington’s defensive line did looked okay for large parts of this game, but the offence seemed to struggle for sections of this game to keep drives going.  They lost despite dominating time of possession and total yards in this game, but it should be noted that Dustin Hopkins only made two of his four field goals. It is too easy to say that if he had made them that Washington would have won the game, but it would surely have affected the flow of the game and should not be discounted. There is no shame in going to the team with the best record in the league and losing, but Washington will need to get back to winning ways if they want to stay in contention for the playoffs. Still with the way the offence is playing they stand a fighting chance.

Indianapolis Colts 7
Pittsburgh Steelers

This was a very straight forward game for the Steelers, which always looked likely to be the case once Andrew Luck went into the concussion protocol.

The Steelers did not suffer a dip against opposition they should beat as is sometimes the case, and it was very much the Steeler’s triplet show with Le’Veon Bell running for one hundred and twenty yards with a touchdown, and Antonio Brown catching three touchdowns with just under one hundred yards. Ben Roethlisberger may have only thrown for two hundred and twenty-one yards, but with three touchdowns and a seventy percent completion rate I’m sure he will be okay with the performance. Their defence also put in a good shift, and they will be hopeful of keeping pace with the Ravens in the race for the AFC North.

The Colts could get very little going, and their solitary touchdown owes much to a fake punt play that went for thirty-five yards when punter Pat McAfee completed his pass to Erik Swoope. Although the Colts recorded ninety-one yards from twenty-one rush attempts, this masks Frank Gore’s fifteen carries that yielded only twenty-eight yards. In a game with a career backup starting, the Colts needed more help from their run game to balance their offence and didn’t get it. I didn’t think that Scott Tolzien looked terrible, but he threw several balls high as well as two interceptions chasing a game that the Colts were never really in. I’m sure everyone in Indianapolis will be keeping their fingers crossed that Andrew Luck can make a quick return.

 

Overall we had two competitive games, and one complete blowout, but I enjoyed all three, even if I didn’t spend all day watching them with a huge meal to keep me going.

Week Twelve Picks

27 Sunday Nov 2016

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For the first time this season Dan has taken a lead going into week twelve, so I will have to see if I can catch up with him

Gee:      Week 11   8-6                     Overall   73-88
Dan:       Week 11   9-5                     Overall   74-87

Cardinals @ Falcons (-4.5)

The Cardinals are coming off a loss to the Vikings, and are on the road in Atlanta against an up and down but rested Falcons team. The Falcons offence has struggled a little bit with injuries and so has slipped to number two in the league by DVOA, but I think they have more than enough to beat a Cardinals team that are just not right this year. The defence of the Cardinals gives me some pause over this line, but things are just not quite there for them this year and I think the Falcons get back on track at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Jaguars @ Bills (-6.5)

I think that the Bills will win this game, but I am trying to work out by how much. Most of their wins this season have been by big margins, but they squeaked past the Bengals last week. It appears that LeSean McCoy will play this week despite thumb surgery, but I think I’m going to back the Jaguars to cover this line on the road, which could be a huge mistake!

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Titans @ Bears (+3.5)

There are too many injuries in Chicago for the Bears to make a strong finish to the season, particularly with Matt Barkley starting at quarterback. It might make fans of the Titans nervous as they seemingly lose every time I back their team, but I can only see this game going one way.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Bengals @ Ravens (-4.5)

The Bengals could cover this line as they’ve kept most games close this season, but the loss of both AJ Green and Giovani Bernard is likely the death knell for the offence turning things round this year. The Ravens are not great on offence, but they have once again built a tough defence and I think they will grind this one out at home. As ever when picking against the Bengals, I would be delighted to be proved wrong.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Giants @ Browns (+7.5)

I said on the podcast that the Browns would not lose all their remaining games, and I still think that is more likely than not, but I wouldn’t know when to pick them winning and I shan’t be doing so against a Giants team that seemingly seems to be finding their way on defence to complement an offence that keeps doing enough to win.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Rams @ Saints (-6.5)

So in shock news, a rookie quarterback who doesn’t start until week eleven looks like a rookie quarterback when he finally plays. There is more wrong with the LA Rams’ offence than the quarterback, but at least Todd Gurley broke some longer runs last week. However, I was pretty impressed the with Saint’s defensive line in last week’s eventually close loss to the Panthers. The Rams defence has been playing really well this season, but I think the Saint’s run out winners in this one at home. The points however make me really nervous, but in the end I’m backing the Saints to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

49ers @ Dolphins (-7.5)

The Dolphins seem to have come together over the last few weeks, but their identity on offence is being challenged with problems with the injuries to their line. I like the Dolphins to find a way to win, but the points do give me pause, however when it comes down to making this pick I am still not getting enough points to make me back the 49ers on the road.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Chargers @ Texans (-1.5)

I thought Brock Osweiler looked better than I was expecting against the Raiders last week, but he is still on the wrong page with his receivers too often. The Texans defence is looking very good, but I think that Philip Rivers is finding a way with his Chargers team and I believe their respective records would be very different if they swapped divisions.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Seahawks @ Buccaneers (+5.5)

The Seahawks are playing really well, but this is a lot of points. However, with their defence getting back to its best, and Russel Wilson getting healthy enough to find his mobility again I think they will beat an improving Buccaneers team. I thought that Dirk Koetter was struggling at the start of the season, but they do seem to have settled down and beat the Chiefs in Kansas City last week, which is no mean feat. That said, I I’m still backing the Seahawks to cover these points as they round into their typical end of season form.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Panthers @ Raiders (-3.5)

The Panthers got a win against the Saints, but the offence sputtered in the run gain and they were functioning off the back of some key plays by Cam Newton and their defence finding its feet. The loss of Luke Kuechly will really hurt their defence though, and the Raiders have the offensive line to cope with their improving pass rush. I like the Raiders to cover this one despite the short week.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Patriots @ Jets (+7.5)

The Patriots struggled a little against the 49ers, but still nearly beat them by the fourteen points they needed to cover. I can’t see them letting up in a divisional game, and with all that has gone wrong for the Jets this season I see this going one way.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Chiefs @ Broncos (-3.5)

The last two games give me real pause, particularly in this one with the Broncos coming off a bye. I really like the Chiefs, but it looks as if the Broncos defence will be that much healthier after the bye and given the Chiefs recent struggles on offence and the always difficult trip to Denver I think the Chiefs will struggle. So despite the extra half point making me nervous I’m going to back the Broncos to cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Packers @ Eagles (-3.5)

The Packers have really struggled this season and in particular over the last couple of weeks. I’m not sure the Eagles have the receivers to hurt the Packers troubled secondary, but I like their defence and I have more faith in them right this second so I am reluctantly backing the Eagles despite them needing to win by four to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 33

24 Thursday Nov 2016

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It’s Thanksgiving this week, and we’re giving thanks for all of the great Football games we’ve been able to watch over the last couple of weeks… Dan’s definitely thankful for the Dolphins current run of form! This week, we’re talking about Colin Kaepernick and his charity donations and analyse exactly what on earth is going wrong for the Green Bay Packers! Also, all the best action from Week 11, and our picks for Week 12, all here this week on The Wrong Football Podcast!

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 33

Being Thankfull

24 Thursday Nov 2016

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Well 2016 has been an eventful year to say the least, and on this American holiday of Thanksgiving I thought I’d try to find a few things to be thankful for the NFL.

The obvious place to start given the turmoil of this year is the distraction that sport provides. I’ve written before that I don’t see getting away from the world as a bad thing. Sport gives us an escape, whilst at times teaching us things that are useful in life, particularly when participating.

Football is a sport that relies heavily on team work, cooperation, and personal responsibility as if you stop playing within your team’s system then you are going to hurt your team. It’s not a bad reminder that personal responsibility and social solutions are not mutually exclusive, despite what some politicians on both the right and left would say.

The Bengals are having a tough year, and the search for an end to the league’s longest playoff win drought doesn’t look to be stopping this season, but I’m still grateful for the sight of Geno Atkins causing trouble to offences, one of the best colour rush uninforms of the year, and the painful reminder that nothing in the NFL is guaranteed.

For all the NFLUK’s marketing of Jay Ajayi as London’s Jay Ajayi, I’m enjoying Dan having a player to hang his hat on, and whilst I was worried that Adam Gase could struggle despite being an excellent coach given the roster he had been handed, with a chance of making the playoffs and at least being relevant he looks to be turning things round. Although perhaps I should have let Dan play the funeral march in an attempt to revive the Bengals’ season.

It hasn’t happened yet, but I am incredibly thankful that this year’s playoff games won’t be blacked out on Gamepass as it will make the logistics of covering and watching all the games so much easier.

I’m thankful that despite having a terrible season of picking games, I’m on a game behind Dan and on yet another short week I shall turn to tonight’s games, which I am really looking forward to!

Vikings @ Lions (-2.5)

The Vikings are coming off a their first win in five games, as they travel to Detroit to play the Lions in a game that will put one team at the top of the NFC North. The Cardinals are a struggling team right now, but a win is a win as far as the Vikings are concerned. However, we perhaps shouldn’t get carried away as the Vikings had a one hundred yard interception return for a touchdown and a one hundred and four yard kickoff return and still only won by six points. The defence looked more like itself, but still gave up twenty-four points, whilst the offence still looks to be struggling. The Lions meanwhile managed to be behind in the fourth quarter again, this time to the awful Jaguars, but did enough to win the game. There can’t have been too many time that the Lions were playing for the division lead in their tradition Thanksgiving game, but I fancy them to do enough at home against the Vikings.

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

Washington @ Cowboys (-7.5)

The Cowboys are having a phenomenal season and look to be amongst the elite of the NFC, but Washington are no slouches and so this seems like a surprisingly large line. I would expect the Cowboys to win, and I’m not saying they can’t cover this line, but with Washington’s offence playing as well as it is at the moment, I think they are more likely to cover this line than not, even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Washington

Steelers @ Colts (+7.5)

I am nervous about this line as the Colts are at home and the Steelers didn’t exactly blow out the Browns in their last game. However, whilst I might have been tempted had Andrew Luck been fit, the fact that Scott Tolzein is the starting quarterback with Luck in concussion protocol pushes me to pick the Steelers. Their offence could absolutely find its way again as it still has a terrifying array of talent as well as playing in the dome tonight, but the Steelers need to keep the pressure on in the AFC North.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

AAF: Joe Thomas

20 Sunday Nov 2016

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So this week’s amateur adventure in film was inspired by the block ‘em up podcast where Geoff and Duke selected Joe Thomas as their all NFL left tackle through the first half of the season, and then I watched him get beat for a couple of key plays in that week’s loss to the Baltimore Ravens. There is a thin line between success and failure and so having spotted those plays last week, I wanted to take a closer look at Thomas for the whole game.

I have watched Thomas before, and the thing that struck me then was his balance, and whilst I’m not expert on line play, he always seemed to be in control. For most of the game in Baltimore, Thomas was indeed in control. He is not the kind of lineman that is constantly flattening opposing players in the run game, but he seals his player up very effective in the run game, and he still looks balanced in the pass game.

It is interesting to me that the Browns seem to use run style blocking on passing plays without any play-action motion from quarterback quite a lot, and I don’t remember seeing that from other teams before. Perhaps I should be paying more attention.

However, for most of the game Joe Thomas seemed in control of his man whilst pass blocking, occasionally getting help from left guard Spencer Drango, but for most of the time he was asked to matchup man to man and usually he was up to the job.

The problem seemed to come however when he was matched up against Terrell Suggs, as unlike when blocking someone like Za’Darious Smith, there were multiple occasions when Suggs was able to get round Thomas and affect the play. There were two occasions where this really made the Browns pay.

In the third quarter Suggs was able to get round Thomas and get a piece of Josh McCown’s arm as he threw the ball and his pass was intercepted.

In the fourth quarter, getting round Thomas again he was able to knock the ball out of McCown’s hand and recover the football.

These were the major plays, but there were a couple more where Suggs was able to get round Thomas but couldn’t make the play. On all of these plays, some combination of Suggs speed and angle meant that Thomas was reaching and not able to stay in front of Suggs. Let’s not forget that Terrell Suggs has been an effective pass rusher and quality player so it should not surprise that he represented the major challenge that Thomas would face in this game.

For the majority of the game though, Thomas looked good, but such are the margins in the NFL, and particularly for a tackle, that it only takes perhaps a handful of plays that are not quite right for your quarterback to have a bad day. What I don’t know, is the line calls, whether the ball should have been out of the quarterback’s hand earlier. From the rest of his play you wouldn’t say that Thomas is a declining player, and I’m certainly not going to disagree with NFL lineman when they say that Thomas is as good as anyone in the league. However, on a short week as part of a bad team, a handful of eventful plays can catch the eye, and certainly Joe Thomas deserves to have played on better teams than he has, but the Browns show signs they could take real steps if they stick with the plan, and I don’t think Joe Thomas is going anywhere in the near future.