So here we are, and it’s already week two but before we get down to the second week of picks let’s see if either of Dan or I can actually score a point in the trivia competition so here’s a reminder of the question:

‘This week I want to know what connects the following teams:

Chiefs, Packers, Raiders, Bengals and Bears.’

Now I think that what links all these teams is that they lost their last Super Bowl appearance, so let’s see what Dan thought:

‘This is an absolute guess this week, and resisting the urge to put “They all have an ‘E’ in their name” and being correct on a technicality I’ll say…. Have none of them had the first Draft pick??’ [I happen to know the Bengals have – Ed.]

Panthers @ Falcons (-5.5)

This should be an interesting game between two division rivals but I worry for the Atlanta Falcons as not only did Matt Ryan look off last week, but they lost key players up the spine of their defence in Deion Jones and Keanu Neal. This is the NFL so I’m not saying that the Falcons can’t win this game, and if the years picking games has taught me anything it’s that teams are more likely to go 1-1 than win or lose both games, but this is too many points going against a Carolina Panthers team that looked good on defence last week.

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Falcons

‘The Falcons didn’t win last week, but played quite well. So did the panthers, but they were probably helped by the Cowboys not looking great. I’ll go Falcons this week.’

Chargers @ Bills (+7.5)

The Bills looked bad last week and the response is to give Josh Allen his first start, which was not the plan going into the season. This is a big swing in points, but the Bills looked horrible and so I think the LA Chargers will pick up their first win of the season but what worries me is that they are coming across the country to play the Bills in Buffalo and I wonder if this game could be closer than I think. I am tempted by the Bills to cover in a loss, there has to be a reaction to last week’s game in this their home opener and I don’t exactly trust the Chargers so I am finding this one really hard to commit to. In the end this is too many points for me in a game that I don’t have that strong a lean in terms of line.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Chargers

‘If the Bills play like they did last week, they’re going to struggle to get many wins this season, and I don’t envy their rookie QB’s position. I’m going Chargers.’

Browns @ Saints (-8.5)

The New Orleans Saints lost their home opener to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week in a game where they scored forty but conceded forty-eight. Funny things can happen in divisional games but this week they welcome a Cleveland Browns team who failed to grasp the opportunity to beat the Steelers despite generating six turnovers. The Browns’ defence looks like it will be nasty and Myles Garrett looked every inch the high first round pick that he was, but Drew Brees continues to play other worldly football. I think that Saints bounce back in this one and their defence, which played so much better last season will be determined not to let the Saints go 0-2 whilst I don’t have faith in Hue Jackson at all.

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Browns

‘The Saints will win this one, but I think this will be another close one, so I’m backing the Browns to cover.’

Vikings @ Packers (-0.5)

As I’m writing this we don’t know if Aaron Rodgers will be able to start given his knee sprain from last week, and there’s been plenty of talk that the Minnesota Viking defence is not the unit for Rodgers to face with a dodgy knee. The problem with that is DeShone Kizer completed four of his seven passes and managed a pick six in his limited time leading the Green Bay Packers offence whilst Rodgers was getting evaluated. It’s not often these days that picking against the Packers at home is good pick but the fall off if Rodgers can’t play is dramatic and I think the Vikings are as good a shout as anyone for the best team in the league and so in what is basically a pick’em game I’m backing the Vikings.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Packers

‘Another close one I’m struggling to pick. With the roar of the Lambeau behind them, I’ll pick Green Bay.’

Texans @ Titans (+2.5)

This game pits two winless teams against each other but the Tennessee Titans are still waiting to see if oft injured quarterback Marcus Mariota can play with the pinched nerve in his elbow that is causing loss of sensation in his fingers, but we do know that both of their starting offensive tackles are ruled out of this game and Delanie Walker is done for the season. It doesn’t exactly inspire confidence when head coach Mike Vrabel says that they’re anticipating having both Mariota and Blaine Gabbert play. The Houston Texans have injury concerns of their own on an offensive line that was a concern coming into the season, but they were a frequent pick to be one of the teams of the AFC and they need to get back to winning ways quickly if this is to hold true. I don’t have a lot of faith in the Texans but two road games that opens in New England is a rough way to start the season for any team and so I’m not reading too much into the week one loss.

Gee’s Pick: Texans
Dan’s Pick: Texans

‘The Titans are knackered, and the Texans looked ok last week despite a loss against the Patriots, so this is quite an easy one. I’ll go Texans.’

Colts @ Washington (-5.5)

The Indianapolis Colts lost to the Bengals last week in a game where Andrew Luck returned from his long injury layoff and looked good but otherwise this rebuilding team struggled. This week they travel to face a Washington team who won a game very competently against the Cardinals. The experienced quarterback Alex Smith threw for over two hundred and fifty yards and two touchdowns whilst Arian Peterson ran for the ninety-six yards and took three receptions seventy yards. I don’t know how sustainable this kind of production is for Peterson but it does seem that Smith is a good fit for Jay Gruden’s system and it looks like Washington are in position to get off to a better start to this season than has been the case in recent years. I like Washington to run out winners in this one and whilst the points worry me a little, I’m placing some trust in Jay Gruden’s men. I hope I don’t regret it.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Washington

‘Colts aren’t going to do well this year – that much seems fairly clear already. Luck will be Lucky(!) to last the season if he keeps getting hit! Redskins for me.’

Chiefs @ Steelers (-5.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are still without Le’Veon Bell and whilst James Conner was a very competent replacement in the running game, Ben Roethlisberger had a rotten start to the season in week one throwing three interceptions as the Steelers tied with the Cleveland Browns. This week they welcome a Kansas City Chiefs team that looked really good on offence in their first game and looked a bit better on defence. This game could be a real offensive show as I’m not convinced by the Steelers defence these days and I’m definitely going to be watching this one. I’m slightly surprised by the number of points that the Steelers are getting and whilst I expect them to be better and winning the game would hardly be a surprise, I can’t pick them to win by six against this Chief who look explosive on offence.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

‘Picking Chiefs, but Steelers to win the game.’

Dolphins @ Jets (-2.5)

I am really intrigued by this game because the Miami Dolphins ground out a win against the Titans in difficult circumstances thanks to the weather, and this week travel to New York to face a Jets team who easily beat a woeful Lions team. Now, this could very well have made Sam Darnold look better than he actually is, but the buzz around the Jets’ rookie quarterback is incredibly positive and I want to know if the Lions made the Jets look good last week, or if the Jets are going to be a danger in the AFC East. The worry for me in this game is that the Dolphins went 2-6 in the division last season, losing all their divisional games road games and are in fact 2-11 against the spread in their last thirteen divisional road games. I may well regret this but Todd Bowles has at least kept the Jets competitive and with a live arm at quarterback I’m going against Dan in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

‘Of course….’

Eagles @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

This is a curious game for me as the Philadelphia Eagles offence continued to struggle in week one with Nick Foles not looking good and he remains the starter as the Super Bowl winners travel to Tampa Bay to face the Buccaneers coming off a win. The history of Ryan Fitzpatrick is not of consistent good performances from week to week otherwise he wouldn’t have moved around so many teams and the Eagles defence at least looked very good last week. There are a number of home underdogs this week and it’s not likely that they’ll all lose, but I have more faith in Doug Pederson and his coaching staff than the infrastructure in Tampa and so whilst I don’t like the points particularly, I think the Eagles will get another win and I just hope it’s by enough to warrant this pick.

Gee’s Pick: Eagles
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

‘Sorry Bucks fans, but I can’t see them repeating their performance from last week, so Eagles on this one.’

Lions @ 49ers (-5.5)

There are signs that things are really not going well in Detroit with continued rumblings about Matt Partricia coming from the locker room and talk from the Jets that they knew the Lions’ calls and what was coming on offence. Having been so thoroughly dismantled by the Jets they now travel to face the San Francisco 49ers who are coming off their own tough start in Minnesota. However, even against the tough Vikings defence Kyle Shanahan was able to scheme players open and whilst Jimmy Garoppolo no longer has an unbeaten record, this was always going to happen at some point and I fancy them to get back to winning ways. The points in this game do worry me a little, but the Lions look like things could go really wrong for them and I’m not convinced of a turn around this week.

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: 49ers

‘Something’s telling me that Jimmy G’s team will take this one fairly comfortably. Could be wrong, but I’m picking San Francisco.’

Cardinals @ Rams (-12.5)

This is a horrible game to pick just because of the line. The LA Rams went on the road and ran out convincing winners against the Raiders and this week they welcome an Arizona Cardinals team who got blown out by Washington last week. It was always going to be hard to turn things round after losing Bruce Arians as coach and Carson Palmer as quarterback. They drafted Josh Rosen for the future but right now Sam Bradford is the starting quarterback but I struggle to see them turning things round against a Rams team who invested in their defence in the offseason and who have one of the best young coaches in the game. The problem is that this is a huge line and I feel like I should pick the Cardinals but having got blown out against Washington at home, I don’t see how they will do better against a stacked Rams team on the road. I could really regret this one.

Gee’s Pick: Rams
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

‘This is horrible given the size of the spread. I’ll go Cards, reluctantly.’

Raiders @ Broncos (-5.5)

This looks to be a horrible spot for the currently Oakland Raiders who lost the late Monday night game and now travel to face the Denver Broncos. The Raiders lost badly and the situation with Jon Gruden has the potential to go seriously wrong. This feels like a lot of points for the Broncos to give up, but they have a definite home advantage and got the job done last week despite Case Keenum throwing three interceptions to go with his three touchdowns. In a familiar theme, this feels like a lot of points but I do not trust the road team and so I’m hoping the Broncos build on last week’s win.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

‘The Broncos pulled off a bit of a surprise last week in beating the Seahawks. I fancy the Raiders this week though.’

Patriots @ Jaguars (+2.5)

If there is a home underdog that could be the one to go with it’s the Jacksonville Jaguars who host the New England Patriots in a rerun of last season’s AFC conference championship game. The Jaguars look pretty much the same as last year with a dominant defence and a limited offence that will not be helped by Leonard Fournette being questionable thanks to a hamstring injury. The Patriots got their season off to a winning start against the Texans last week and it looked like their defence could be better although the Texan’s offensive line will have helped that. It’s always dangerous to pick against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady and I’m really looking forward to taking a look at the coaching tape to see what the Patriots offence schemes up to take on the Jaguars’ defence. I don’t want to pick against all the home underdogs but I can’t quite bring myself to pick the Jaguars with the injuries on offence and it’s not hard to see the Patriots winning this one by a field goal.

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Jaguars

‘What a game this will be. I’ll go Jaguars in the hope they stick the first L to the Pats.’

Giants @ Cowboys (-2.5)

This is a straight up battle for the first win of the season between two struggling teams. With Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham in the huddle the New York Giants have talent on offence but weren’t able to generate that much last week against the fearsome Jaguars defence. That said the Dallas Cowboys have continued their struggles from last season and their offensive line is struggling with injuries. I’m not exactly convinced by either team so I’m going to grab the points with the Giants but it really feels like a shot in the dark.

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Giants

‘Big divisional game here from 2 teams who aren’t their normal selves this year. Giants to win for me.’

Seahawks @ Bears (-3.5)

The Seahawks have got a rough start to the season with two road games and having lost narrowly to the Broncos last week they travel to Chicago this week to face the Bears before they get to play in Seattle. If things weren’t difficult enough for Russell Wilson, his favourite receiver Doug Baldwin injured his good knee last week and is out for this game. The problem for the Bears is that they looked good for a half but can they be consistent for an entire game versus a Seahawks team who are always competitive. It’s a long way to travel for the Seahawks but I can’t quite bring myself to have the Bears win by more than a field goal. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bears win as I think they showed a lot of potential in their last game and they could very easily make me look foolish.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Bears

‘This is really tough. Really tough. The Bears look really good with Khalil Mack, and the Seahawks lost to the Broncos last week… I’ll go Chicago.’

So here it is, the first week of picks and having dropped a point to Dan already let’s see if I can pick some points back up again!

Before we get going though there’s the small matter of this year’s trivia competition so here’s a reminder of the week one question:

‘All teams aspire to finish as high as they can so we kick off the new season with a question about the Highest Altitude of NFL Stadia. At 5280 feet the Broncos Mile High Stadium is way too easy as a question but, at 1070 feet, who comes in second?’

So my first thought was that Dan’s dad is just too good at this and I’m betting that I can’t have the Raiders when they play in Mexico City. I mentally went through the NFL divisions and had a couple of thoughts, although my knowledge of American geography is not that strong, and in the end I’m going to plump for the Buffalo Bills. Now I get to check what Dan thought and feel like an idiot…

‘So, I don’t know the answer to this, but to guess I’m between two – one with an element of Logic (Chicago – it’s windy, makes sense that it’s high up) and one because I just have a feeling (Detroit). I’ll go for Chicago I think!’

Remember the actual answer will be revealed in The Wrong Football Newsletter that is sent out Wednesday nights so sign up here.

Bills @ Ravens (-5.5)

I am worried about the Bills’ offensive line and the effect it will have on their young quarterbacks and the Ravens look to be competitive this year with better receivers than they’ve had in recent seasons so I’m going with the Ravens in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

‘While this could go either way, the Bills are already a bit banged up going into week one, so I’m going for Baltimore’

Bengals @ Colts (-3.5)

I’m feeling good about how the Bengals looked in pre-season and I come into this game relatively confident about how they are going to play. Yes the Colts beat them in pre-season but Andrew Luck has been out for a long time with his shoulder injury and they are still in the process of rebuilding a roster that sorely lacked talent. I think the Bengals are the better team (please don’t let me be wrong!) and so with an extra half point I’m taking the road underdog Bengals.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:       Bengals

‘Almost everything wants me to go for the Colts here, especially with Andrew Luck being back, but something’s telling me the Bengals are going to do it! Hopefully that doesn’t jinx you mate!’

Steelers @ Browns (+6.5)

This is a bit of a tricky one for me as I think the Steelers are the better team, but they have a nasty habit of playing down to their opposition and they will be without Le’Veon Bell who still hasn’t signed back with his team. I’m wary of the Hard Knocks curse but I thought watching the pre-season games that the Browns were more competitive and this point total means the Browns only have to stay within a touchdown. This game would be a lot easier to pick in a week or two but I think Myles Garrett is going to a real menace to quarterbacks and I’m going to give the Browns a go. Watch Antonio Brown make me look like a fool!

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

‘If Hard Knocks has taught me anything it’s that the Browns will win a game this year. Not this one though. Away Win.’

Titans @ Dolphins (+1.5)

There are so many unknown variables in this one. For the Titans what effect will Mike Vrabel have on his team and will new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur be able to unlock Marcus Mariota’s full potential. Meanwhile, the Dolphins traded or cut their best players on defence and offence whilst quarterback Ryan Tannehill is coming back from a year off with a knee injury and I trust Adam Gase as a head coach. The Titans may well end the season with the better record but in a game I’m not sure of I’m going to grab the points for the home team.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Dolphins

‘Dolphins. Obviously.’

49ers @ Vikings (-5.5)

This should be a really fascinating game given that it features the unbeaten Jimmy Garoppolo (it’s just fun to type that so I’m going to enjoy it until it stops being a thing) and the improving 49ers taking on the Vikings with their new quarterback Kirk Cousins. The Vikings had a real home advantage in their new stadium last year and I expect it to be the same this year. The loss of the Jerick Mckinnon to a torn ACL is a cruel blow for the 49ers and so despite the points and my nervousness about the streak, I’m picking the Vikings to cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings

‘I think this is going to be a good year for the modern day Purple People Eaters this year, and I think they’ll start with a home win. Minnesota.’

Texans @ Patriots (-6.5)

There are enough warning signs in New England that I think this game could be competitive, but the problem is that it is a big could. The Texans defence has all the pieces you could want whilst their offence sees the return of Deshaun Watson who set the league alight last year before his injury. The Patriots come into the season with questions at the skills position and a forty-one year old quarterback but you just know that we can’t discount Belichick and Brady until we actually see it go wrong. However, this is enough points for me to take the Texans and I just hope that I’m not reading too much into the Texans keeping the game within three last season.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

‘New England are going to have another very New England year. I’ll put them down for a win by a TD.’

Buccaneers @ Saints (-9.5)

This number of points should worry me in an opening game but the fact is that Saints are at home and have everything setup to follow last year’s season with another good one and I’m not at all convinced by the Buccaneers. There’s plenty of potential for the Bucs to make me eat my words but in week one I’m just swinging with my convictions and that says the Saints cover this and win.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

‘The 9.5 point spread on this one makes it the most difficult line of the week. I think I’ll go with New Orleans but won’t be surprised if I get this one wrong!’

Jaguars @ Giants (+2.5)

This is a trick game for me as the Jaguars look set to continue to have an amazing defence but their offence could still continue to struggle to move the ball through the air given the receiving options available. However, just how much of a turnaround are the Giants capable off and specifically how well can Eli Manning play. This game represents a five-and-a-half-point swing and I’m so tempted by the points but the Jaguars only have to win by a field goal to cover this. I could really regret this but I’m not quite ready to call this one for the Giants just yet as I haven’t seen them.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:       Jaguars

‘Jags for me. They’re going to have another good year this year. I’d like to see them at least make the playoffs again.’

Chiefs @ Chargers (-3.5)

The Chargers have all the players you could need but might have a home disadvantage thanks to their status as LA’s other team and the Chiefs are going to have the offensive capacity to stay in most games. This feels like a real toss up pick and should be a great game but the half point just has me backing the Chiefs to keep this one to at least a field goal, particularly when Andy Reid has time to prepare.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:       Chargers

‘Struggling to call this one as I could see it going either way. I’ll go Chargers with the home advantage.’

Cowboys @ Panthers (-2.5)

I’m not sure about the Cowboys given the strength of the offence has been shaken by injuries and whilst I feel like in the long run they could be okay, a road game against a Panthers team who are strong at home is not an easy start to the season. The Panthers have their own questions on the offensive line but with them only having to win by field goal to cover then I’m going with the Panthers.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

‘Road win, but I’ve changed my mind on this line twice since I started looking at it!’

Seahawks @ Broncos (-2.5)

This is a tricky pick for me given that I think that the Seahawks will be more competitive than most seem to think, but they start the season on the road in Denver, which is not an easy place to play. The Broncos have another offensive line that I’m not convince by and this could hamper Case Keenum who had a career year in Minnesota but who also benefitted by having one of the best pairs of receivers in the league so there are big questions about whether he can repeat or improve on that performance. This could turn into a real slug fest and I don’t have a strong opinion either way so given the Broncos home advantage and that they only need a field goal to win I’m reluctantly going with them.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:       Seahawks

‘I could do with the Seahawks having a good year this year, especially with Russell Wilson under centre for our Fantasy team! I’ll back them for week one.’

Washington @ Cardinals (-0.5)

I’m really not sure what to expect from the Cardinals with the change in the coaching staff and them starting Sam Bradford at quarterback but the same basically goes for Washington so who knows? This game is basically a pick’em and given that Washington have not started fast in recent years and are on the road I’ll back the Cardinals and the return of David Johnson but I don’t feel strongly about it.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

‘Another one that could go either way so is only being called on the basis of Arizona being at home!’

Bears @ Packers (-8.5)

The Packers have Aaron Rodgers back and a new defensive coordinator as they welcome a Bears team that have just acquired Khalil Mack and will be radically different on offence this season. The Bears have generated a lot of buzz this offseason but it is unclear how much Mack will play in this game. This is a lot of points and Packers’ head coach Mike McCarthy has a tendency to play conservative with a lead so whilst I’m not saying the Bears will win this game, I do think they can keep it to within nine points.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:       Bears

‘Packers are going to win this one, but not by more than a touchdown so I’m going for the Bears to cover.’

Jets @ Lions (-6.5)

I am really not sure about this game as there are lot of changing factors in this game. Todd Bowles kept the Jets competitive despite a roster depleted of talent but they start this season with a rookie quarterback whilst the Lions may have looked bad in the pre-season game I saw them but it was the final game where no starters played. A touchdown win seems too rich for me at first look but I can’t bring myself to pick a rookie quarterback with questionable receivers on the road in his debut so Lions it is…

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:       Lions

‘J-E-T-S – Lose, Lose, Lose!’

Rams @ Raiders (+2.5)

The Raiders may be at home and getting points but they have a head coach who hasn’t actually coached in nine years and who has just traded away their best player. In the long run it might be a good salary cap move but it is not a move you can look your current team in the eye and say you made them better for this game. This is a tough start for the Raiders and whilst we haven’t seen what tricks Sean McVay has prepared for this season, he has catapulted himself into the discussion of best head coaches in the league after one season and so this is still not enough points for me to pick the Raiders.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:       Rams

‘LA win in Monday Night’s game, followed by everyone copying me and jumping on the bandwagon and the odds dropping!!’

Heading into the final week of picks Dan and my records stand as:

Gee:      Week 16   6-10                   Overall   134-107
Dan:      Week 16   8-8                     Overall   125-116

Week seventeen is a strange week for picks as there are differing levels of motivation depending on what is riding on the game and how a team are finishing out for their coaches but it also seems odd to talk about the motivation of professional players and this is not a sport you can play at half speed. Dan has decided to go with all road teams baring his Dolphins so we’ll have to see how that works out for him.

Bears @ Vikings (-12.5)

This line worries me a lot as there is a big difference between these teams but this is a lot of points. The Chicago Bears defence is ranked a respectable fourteenth by DVOA but they are twenty-fifth overall thanks to poor offence and a surprisingly struggling special teams unit. They are on the road in Minnesota and it doesn’t feel like Mike Zimmer is the kind of coach who know how not to compete. Combine this with a stadium that offers a genuine home field advantage and that the Vikings need a win to secure a first round bye and I am going to reluctantly back the Vikings to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

Browns @ Steelers (-14.5)

This is the final chance for the Cleveland Browns to avoid going winless this season, but playing the Steelers on the road in Pittsburgh doesn’t feel like the best situation to get one. Still, we don’t know what players may be rested by the home team and the Browns will be desperate for a win. I don’t know if that will be enough to get the win but this line is too rich for my blood despite the Brown’s record against the spread.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Cowboys @ Eagles (+2.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles head into the playoffs with worries about how they played last week and with a backup quarterback who did not look great last in that game so they will hope to better in the coming weeks or their playoff run could be very shot. This week they welcome the Dallas Cowboys who missed out on the playoffs with last week’s loss to the Seahawks. The Eagles have secured a first round bye so could rest players yet with them picking up points at home I think I’m going to back them.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Packers @ Lions (-7.5)

This is another game where neither team has anything on the line other than divisional rivalry and with the Detroit Lions hosting a Green Bay Packers team that will be starting Brett Hundley at quarterback it is hard to know how things will go. However, backing a Packers’ team on the road who were shut out last week doesn’t look like a good plan, especially when six of their eight losses this season have been by more than eight points.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Texans @ Colts (-3.5)

The 4-11 Houston Texans last win was in week eleven and they have scored single digit points in their last two games. The 3-12 Indianapolis Colts are at home and may not have won since week nine but they at least have been close in some of their recent games and so I’m going to back them in this one despite the extra half point.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Jets @ Patriots (-15.5)

The New England Patriots have secured a first round bye but will want to finish seeded one. However, they are hosting a New York Jets team who have been competitive all year and this line is huge. I doubt that the Jets will win but this line is just too rich for me, even if the Patriots have been ridiculously good against the spread as well as winning a lot of games this season.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Washington @ Giants (+3.5)

The New York Giants were another team shut out last week and this week host a Washington team who won handily in their last game and so I find it difficult to see things changing this week. In this most unpredictable of weeks I could be wrong but I’m not going to pick it.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Panthers @ Falcons (-3.5)

The Atlanta Falcons need a win to make sure they stay ahead of the chasing Seahawks and host the Carolina Panthers who are looking to secure their division. This should be one of the better games of the season and with the Falcons needing to get their act together for the playoffs I fancy them to win but the points do worry me. Still, all of the Panthers four losses have been by more than four points and so I’m worriedly taking the Falcons

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Bills @ Dolphins (+2.5)

The Buffalo Bills need to win and for results to go their way for the longest playoff appearance drought in the NFL to end and I for one will be supporting them heartily. They travel to face a Miami Dolphins team who have struggled for large parts of the season despite their excellent skills players on offence. Their respective overall rankings of twentieth and twenty-eighth by DVOA backup my feeling that the Bills are the better team this season and so I am going to pick them with hope that they make the playoffs but it feels like something (namely the Chargers) will go wrong to prevent them making it and that could well include this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Bengals @ Ravens (-9.5)

The Baltimore Ravens will want to win to secure their wildcard spot and with them hosting the Cincinnati Bengals I expect them to get it. However, this is a lot of points for an AFC North game that has traditionally been close and I do fancy the Bengals to finish the season close against a team whose offence is ranked twentieth by DVOA even if the Bengal’s defence has slipped in recent weeks thanks to injury.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Chiefs @ Broncos (-3.5)

This is a curious game to pick as the Kansas City Chiefs are starting their rookie quarterback Patrick Mahomes and I think this explains this line given how the Denver Broncos have been playing this season. It is hard to know how Mahomes will go against a defence that still ranks in the top ten by DVOA even if it has slipped from its recent heights, but the Broncos still rank second against the run so it is doubtful the Chiefs can rely on their run game and Denver has never been an easy place to play. There are too many unknowns to feel secure about this game so I’m going to grab the points and see what happens.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Jaguars @ Titans (-5.5)

The Tennessee Titans are another team who need to win and for results to go their way to get into the playoffs but they welcome a Jacksonville Jaguars team who lost badly last week and will want to get things back on track before the playoffs. I also get the feeling that they would delight in sticking it to a divisional rival and stopping them from making the playoffs. Even if this wasn’t all true, this line feels off considering the way the teams have played all season and so I’m going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Raiders @ Chargers (-7.5)

The Los Angeles Chargers got the win they needed last week to keep their playoff hopes alive, but they need to win and hope results go their way to actually get in and this could be a surprisingly tough home game. The Chargers stadium will likely be full of Oakland Raiders’ fans and so whilst the Raiders defence ranks a lowly twenty-sixth by DVOA they could still get a boost. Still, this has been a disappointing year for the Raiders and the Chargers are very solidly ranked in both offence and defence by DVOA if only their special teams weren’t so poor. I do still fancy the Chargers to get the win and whilst the points do worry me, I think they have enough to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

49ers @ Rams (-3.5)

This feels like a strange game in that the Rams’ head coach Sean McVay is resting players as he expects to be home for the first week of the playoffs and then on the road and prefers to get some of his starters rested, whilst the San Francisco 49ers travel to LA on a four game win streak. If Jimmy Garoppolo can get a win against the Jaguars top ranked by DVOA pass defence then he should keep the 49ers competitive in this one. In fact, I kind of fancy the 49ers to win and I definitely expect them to cover with the Rams resting players.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Saints @ Buccaneers (+7.5)

The New Orleans Saints have clinched a playoff spot but are looking to secure a division win as they travel to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs may have lost their last five games but only one of them was by more than eight points and the last three have only been lost by a field goal so whilst I can see the Saints winning their division, I do fancy the Bucs to cover this one and keep the game competitive.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Cardinals @ Seahawks (-8.5)

This final pick of the season is a tricky one for me as the Seattle Seahawks have managed to keep themselves with a chance of making the playoffs, but they need to win and hope that the Falcons lose. They welcome an Arizona Cardinals team whose season was derailed by injury but have remained surprisingly competitive and it is not impossible to see them doing so again against the injured Seahawks defence. Still, the Seahawks’ defence is ranked eleventh and they have a much better quarterback and with something to play for so I expect them to win, but can  they manage to do so by nine points? I’m not sure so I’m going to grab the points and hope in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Falcons @ Saints (-5.5)

This game sees the second ranked by overall DVOA New Orleans Saints host the Atlanta Falcons who rank sixteenth. This should be a great game as both teams are fighting for a playoff spot and the Falcons won the reverse fixture two weeks ago. It also pits the Saints’ number one rush offence by DVOA against the Falcons’ thirtieth rush defence. I do fancy the Saints to win, but it is a question if they can cover this line and whilst I think they definitely can the line does worry me. However, with Alvin Kamara fit and healthy and with a point to prove I’m going to nervously back the Saints.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Bills @ Patriots (-12.5)

The New England Patriots are coming off another comeback win, but having beaten the Steelers they now host the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are still in the playoff hunt and have been playing most teams tough. I would expect the Patriots to win, but given that they are coming off a physical road game I do not expect them to find this division game easy.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Browns @ Bears (-6.5)

The Cleveland Browns have been failing to even cover games yet alone win them, and it is hard to see them turning this around on the road in Chicago even if the Bears are hardly setting the league alight. The Browns’ defence ranks a respectable sixteenth in the league but their thirty-second rank offence does not inspire confidence. Nor does the fact that the Browns are 1-5 against the spread on the road and so by default I’m going back the Bears to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Lions @ Bengals (+4.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals are struggling with injury and stuck in limbo with a head coach that is likely leaving so it hard to see them having much luck against the Detroit Lions who still have an outside chance of making the playoffs. The injuries at tackle will not help the struggling Bengal’s offence and whilst having linebacker Vontaze Burfict back may help the defence, I’m not prepared to suggest that this will help the Bengals keep this game close.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Broncos @ Washington (-3.5)

Washington are limping towards the end of the season whilst the Denver Broncos have won two straight. The Broncos will want to take another look at Paxton Lynch, but with the oft injured young quarterback still struggling with an ankle sprain it looks like Brock Osweiler will get the start in Washington. I don’t have much faith in the home team despite their win against the Cardinals last week but nor do I have much faith in the Broncos and yet with the Broncos coming into this game with a little extra rest and getting an extra half point on the road I’m going to back them to stay within four points in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Rams @ Titans (+6.5)

With the LA Rams on the road as they travel to face the Tennessee Titans the points should tempt me except the Titans have not been playing well for a while now and the Rams are peaking at the right time. I am sure I should be taking the points for a home underdog but with the scores the Rams have been running up this season I can’t bring myself to do it.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Dolphins @ Chiefs (-10.5)

The Miami Dolphins have been so up and down that it is hard to predict what they are going to do, but on the road facing a Kansas City Chiefs team who have rediscovered some of their early season form and who have one of the best home field advantages in the league it is hard to say the Dolphins will have a good performance. However, it is a lot to ask for any team to win by eleven points. I don’t think the Dolphins will win this game, but this number is too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Chargers @ Jets (+6.5)

The LA Chargers rand into a buzz saw last week and are on the road for a second week. They travel to face a New York Jets team who have lost two games by double digits since quarterback Josh McCown was lost for the season to a hand injury in Denver. The points do worry me, but the Chargers are still only a game back from the wildcard spots and are the better team.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Buccaneers @ Panthers (-9.5)

The Carolina Panthers have won two straight and seem to have found themselves on offence. They welcome a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team who got a strong performance from Jameis Winston last week but the third year quarterback has struggled a lot this season as has the team. This is a lot of points but not enough to persuade me to pick against the favourite.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Jaguars @ 49ers (+4.5)

The San Francisco 49ers have had an incredible run since starting Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback but those three wins have come against the Bears, Texans, and Titans whereas this week they face the Jacksonville Jaguars and their league leading by DVOA pass defence. This should be a fascinating game but it feels like this is the game that Garappolo finally loses. The points are tempting, but in the end I’m going to trust the superior talent across the board for the Jaguars and who would have predicted that before the start of the season?

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Seahawks @ Cowboys (-4.5)

This feels like a trap game as the Seattle Seahawks are a team who constantly challenge what you think they can do and the Dallas Cowboys have been up and down this season. However, the Seahawks were battered at home last week and are facing a Cowboys team who can rush the passer and who are also get running back Ezekiel Elliott back from suspension. I could regret this but with the Cowboys coming into this game on a three game winning streak I’m going to back them to win at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Giants @ Cardinals (-4.5)

This is a strange game to pick with both teams’ seasons going badly and neither team having much to play for. The Arizona Cardinals have not scored a touchdown in two games whilst the New York Giants are marking time until the end of the season when the overhaul of their roster can begin. I think the Cardinals are the more likely team to win but the Giants are a surprising 4-3 against the spread on the road and this is just too many points for me.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Steelers @ Texans (+9.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers should have won last week and now travel to face a poor Houston Texans team who just want the season to be over. The Texans have lost their last four games and the last three by double digits so whilst the Steelers’ loss of receiver Antonio Brown does worry me, as does their  propensity of playing down to their opponent, the Steelers need to keep winning to get a bye week and I think they should get right in this game. Particularly with the Christmas day record of 17-2 to road teams, which Dan made me aware of in this week’s podcast.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Raiders @ Eagles (-8.5)

The Oakland Raiders are the other team on the road this Christmas, but if last year was the first to feature home wins in the Christmas day games I expect another home victory this year. The Raiders have been struggling all season and this week they travel across the country to face an Eagles team in Philadelphia who demonstrated that they can move the ball with their backup quarterback Nick Foles. It was the Eagles’ defence that struggled last week despite their top ten ranking by DVOA and they will want to look better this week and going against a Raiders offence that ranks a surprising eleventh by DVOA despite their problem, I think they will.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Dolphins @ Bills (-2.5)

The Buffalo Bills are one of four teams in the AFC with a 7-6 record and do have a shot at a wildcard spot but they also have to play the Miami Dolphins twice and face the Patriots next week. As such, they have to win at least two of those and hope to get into the playoffs. The Dolphins are one of the hardest teams to predict given that their plays is incredibly up and down, they are ranked twenty-eight overall by DVOA, and yet they have a 6-7 record. The Dolphins impressive win against the Patriots on Monday would give me pause, except that I have no faith in their ability to play consistently from week to week and for whatever reason they do give the Patriots problems at home. As such, I’m backing the Bills to win out in this one and they only need a field goal to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Bengals @ Vikings (-10.5)

This could be a really painful game for me as the Bengals leave Cincinnati after a bad loss to the Bears and head off to face the Vikings in Minnesota. The Vikings are coming off three straight road games and only lost to the Panthers last week, but they are a much more balanced team than the Bengals not to mention a better one. The Vikings’ defence is going to cause the anaemic Bengals offence problems and with the injuries at linebacker mounting up I don’t see the Bengals covering this line in a tough stadium to play in.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Ravens @ Browns (+7.5)

The Baltimore Ravens are travelling to face the Cleveland Browns and I do wonder about picking the Browns to cover this one, but it feels like every time I do that I lose and so with the Ravens in the playoff hunt and still possessing the best defence and special teams in the league by DVOA I am backing them to cover. Although I will be interested to see what the Browns’ vocal new GM John Dorsey gets up to in the offseason.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Packers @ Panthers (+0.5)

The Carolina Panthers got the win last week against the Vikings and are part of a tight three way race in the NFC South. This week they face an excited Green Bay Packers who have their talisman back in Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have a slim hope of making the playoffs but they will need to win their final three games and Rodgers will have to hit the ground running in his first game back since breaking his collar bone. I can understand the excitement as the Packers had to win out last season to make the playoffs and they did, but it is a tough three games and the Packers did not look at all convincing without Rodgers as their quarterback. It wouldn’t surprise me if Rodgers gets the win on the road, but I’m not sure I can pick it.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Jets @ Saints (-15.5)

This is an awful lot of points, but with the New York Jets losing starting quarterback Josh McCown for the rest of the season to a broken hand and the New Orleans Saints getting rookie sensation Marshon Lattimore back at corner as well as rookie running back Alvin Kamara clearing concussion protocol it doesn’t feel like the Jets will keep it close. I could regret it, but with the Saints having extra rest and being at home I think they are going to have a big game.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Eagles @ Giants (+7.5)

It is so frustrating that Carson Wentz is done for the year, but the Philadelphia Eagles will still be a tough team to face. The New York Giants continue to argue amongst themselves and I suspect that the end of the season can’t come soon enough. I think the Eagles will still win this game, but with a backup quarterback I can’t pick them to win by eight without seeing some evidence first.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Cardinals @ Washington (-4.5)

The Arizona Cardinals have remained competitive in a lot of games despite the injuries and this week they travel to face a Washington team who have been equally beset by injury. The Cardinals defence is fifth in the league by DVOA and I think they will be competitive so whilst I think Washington are more likely to win, I’m not going to pick them to win by five.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Texans @ Jaguars (-11.5)

The Houston Texans have won one game in their last seven and travel to face the Jacksonville Jaguars with an offence that ranks twentieth in the league by DVOA. This is a problem when you are facing the number two defence in the league by DVOA and the number one pass defence. The Texans rush attack doesn’t look to stack up that great against the comparatively weak Jaguars run defence either. The points give me some pause, and it still feels strange to see the Jaguars giving this number of points, but I don’t think anyone is going to fancy playing the Jaguars in the playoffs and this is going to be a tough game for the Texans.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Rams @ Seahawks (-2.5)

The Seattle Seahawks lost a bad tempered game to the Jaguars last week and are increasingly reliant on Russell Wilson to do the impossible as the injuries continue to mount on defence. The LA Rams lost to the Eagles last week and this game can be seen as something of a measuring stick on whether they are going to be a dangerous team in the playoffs. The Rams have made tremendous progress from last season, but do seem to have struggled against tough defences and this is a bad time to have some injury niggles on the offensive line. Still, with Bobby Wagner not having practised all week, the Seahawks must be worried even if it looks like the linebacker is going to try to play with his hamstring injury. The Rams have beaten the Seahawks in recent years and I think this is the time we find out how good they are going to be and I think they edge this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Titans @ 49ers (-1.5)

It is not often that you see a 3-10 team favoured over an 8-5 team but the Tennessee Titans are coming off an ugly loss to the Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers have won two straight since Jimmy Garoppolo became their starting quarterback. The Titans have been winning ugly this year, and really need this one to stay in the playoff hunt but Marcus Mariota has not looked great in his third season. I’m going to back the team with the momentum in this game and just hope that Garoppolo keeps his winning streak going for another week as he has to lose at some point.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Patriots @ Steelers (+2.5)

In a game that many see as deciding who will come out of the AFC to be in the Super Bowl by determining who will have home field advantage in the playoffs, the Pittsburgh Steelers welcome the New England Patriots who are coming off a tough loss to the Dolphins. The Patriots will have Rob Gronkowski back from suspension and in recent years have shredded the Steelers’ cover two defence, which is worrying given the injury to Ryan Shazier. However, the Steelers’ offence feel like it has more than enough to keep up with the Patriots offence, particularly with there being injury problems for the Patriots at right tackle. The Patriots almost never lose two straight under Bill Belichick but getting points at home is too much for me to pass up in this cracking game.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Cowboys @ Raiders (+2.5)

The Oakland Raiders have really struggled this season and with the league’s worst defence by DVOA I see them struggling against a Dallas Cowboys team that has won two straight and seem to have got themselves back on track.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Falcons @ Buccaneers (+6.5)

This week’s Monday night game see the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Atlanta Falcons. The Bucs have really struggled and losing Gerald McCoy will really hurt a defence already ranked thirty-first in the league by DVOA. The Falcons offence may not have reached the heights of last season, but having found a way to win against the Saints despite Matt Ryan throwing three interceptions last week I expect them to win again this week. I’m just not sure they will win by a touchdown on the road given that they haven’t managed it all season.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons