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Week Eleven Picks

20 Sunday Nov 2016

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Last week was something of a disaster picking wise, which leaves Dan and me level again going into week eleven.

Gee:      Week 10   4-10                   Overall   65-82
Dan:      Week 10   9-5                     Overall   65-82

Bills @ Bengals (-3.5)

The Bengals have not been able to pull things together this season, but they are playing at home in Cincinnati for the first time in three weeks and that was the last time they won a game. They may get back on track against a Bills team who are themselves having an up and down season, but I’m not picking them to win by four until I see a better performance all round. I would be very happy to be proved wrong about this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Bears @ Giants (-7.5)

The injuries are piling up for Bears on the offensive line, Alshon Jeffery is on a four game suspension for breaking the NFL’s substance abuse policy, and they are on the road. This is a big line, but things do seem to be coming together for the Giants on both sides of the ball and so I’m picking them to cover this line, albeit somewhat nervously.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Steelers @ Browns (+9.5)

The Browns lost badly against the Ravens, and this week welcome the Steelers to Cleveland. Part of me wants to pick the Browns to cover as the Steelers have a habit of dropping games on the road against teams they shouldn’t, but the Steelers need this one too badly if they are to stay in the playoff hunt and having only narrowly lost to the Cowboys last week, I think they take care of business against the Browns.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Ravens @ Cowboys (-7.5)

The Ravens have a good defence, and their offence did enough in the second half against the Browns last week despite being ranked dead last by DVOA, but they are on the road against a Cowboys team that are rolling. The Cowboys’ offence is what everybody is talking about, but the defence is playing much better than I thought they would and I think the Cowboys will keep things rolling this week at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Jaguars @ Lions (-6.5)

The Jaguars cannot get out of their own way thanks to the poor starts, but whilst I think the Lions will win this game, I am not picking them to win by seven against a team that seems to be experts at garbage time scores and covering the spread. I might regret this one, but Jaguars to cover in another losing effort.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Titans @ Colts (-2.5)

I’m really nervous about this one as I keep thinking the Titans have got a statement win so I pick them, and it then goes wrong. However, I think this week on the road they really should beat the Colts if they want to compete in the division and having thumped Green Bay last week, I’m placing my faith in what I think is the better team this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Buccaneers @ Chiefs (-7.5)

The Chiefs should win this game as that is what they do, but I don’t see them winning by eight given the injuries they have on offence. I expect them to win a close game as that’s what they do, but the Bucs have shown enough that I don’t think they will lose by eight.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Cardinals @ Vikings (-0.5)

It seems strange to keep picking against the Vikings as I have a lot of faith in Mike Zimmer, and Dan is backing the Vikings to turn things around at home. However, as much as they are struggling on offence thanks to Carson Palmer’s wayward form, they have David Johnson and a tough defence, which despite making a meal of things against the 49ers last week, will have enough to defeat a Vikings team whose offensive line problems are preventing them from competing.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Dolphins @ Rams (+0.5)

So Jared Goff is now ready, and will be watched by many as the overall first pick makes his first start. What the Rams’ defence must make of the continuing problems on the other side of the ball I don’t know, but I am intrigued to see the rookie play. However, given the recent run of form, I’m not making the mistake of picking against the Dolphins on the road again, and having watched them beat the Chargers last week, I think they complete their west coast stay with a second win.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Patriots @ 49ers (+13.5)

This is a horrible line, which is what they are meant to be, but having been bitten by last week’s points when I backed the Patriots to beat Seattle by a lot, I’m not picking them again this week. I can totally see Brady playing lights out and destroying his boyhood team who didn’t give him a workout and beating this line, but I’m not going to pick that to happen.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Eagles @ Seahawks (-6.5)

I am really looking forward to this game as I think it will be a cracker. I have so much respect for what the Seahawks did in travelling to New England on a short week and getting the win, but I don’t see them winning this one by seven. The Eagles got their own win last week, and with a better run game plus a defence that has played well and matches up a really good defensive line against an improving but still not stellar Seattle offensive line, the Eagles should make this a real contest. Russel Wilson looks mobile again, and the Seahawks are rounding into form towards the end of the season as usual so they may well win it, but as I said, I don’t see it being by seven.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Packers @ Washington (-2.5)

I picked the Packers last week as I had that lingering faith in Aaron Rodgers, but there is definitely a serious problem in Green Bay and a road trip to Washington is not exactly the game you would be looking for having lost badly to the improving Titans the previous week. I thought that the suspension of left tackle Trent Williams would really hurt Washington, but they managed to get another ugly win, which is what this team seems to do and I’m thinking they will do it again this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Texans @ Raiders (-6.5)

So Monday night football goes to Mexico and gives us a London style home game for the Raiders that pits their exciting offence against a Texans’ defence that is just outside of the top ten by DVOA. However, I am liking what I have seen out of the Raiders this year and their defence does seem to have picked up in the last couple of weeks, and so with them facing an offence that is hampered by the struggles of Brock Osweiler this season, I think they will win out handily in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

A Return to Form

17 Thursday Nov 2016

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So the games of week ten were as good as my picks were awful!

One of the reasons suggested for the NFL’s falling ratings has been the quality of the games, particularly in the nationally televised games, but we had a series of close and eventful finishes and probably the game of the season in the Sunday night prime time slot with the Seattle Seahawks beating the New England Patriots in a back and forth game that had seven lead changes. This followed and equally back and forth game between the Cowboys and Steelers that featured three touchdowns in the last two minutes.

The New Orleans Saints must have thought they had won the game when Drew Brees somehow found Brandin Cooks in the end zone despite being covered by two Broncos’ players. However, the resulting extra point was blocked by rookie safety Justin Simmons who vaulted the long snapper Justin Drescher with the help of Jared Crick who made sure that Drescher couldn’t stand up and make contact with Simmons by pushing him down. The NFL has later confirmed that as this was an open handed push it was legal. If Simmons’s block wasn’t enough though, another rookie safety in Will Parks scooped up the ball and ran it back to the end zone for a two point defensive score that gave the Broncos the lead before receiving the ball and holding on for the win. Such are the margins that games turn on in the NFL, although the Saints will likely feel aggrieved as with no definitive view of Parks who likely stepped out of bounds during the return, the return stood. It is very possible that this play would have been overturned if Parks had been wearing black boots, but it is too late now. Still, it is yet another dramatic ending for a really good slate of games over the weekend and we will likely see similar leaping block attempts in crucial field goals/extra points at the end of games, with the same manoeuvre executed on the poor long snapper who can’t do much to defend himself in that position.

The fine margins that separate winning and losing are not always so obvious, but the differences between good and average teams are not always that big. This season seems to have a particular large sample of so-so teams, with it seems everybody agreeing that the Patriots, Cowboys, and Seahawks are looking dangerous, a mass of teams with one or two potential contenders for post season success, and then likes of the Browns and 49ers vying for the first pick in next year’s draft.

The Bengals could be seen as a microcosm of this in that their 3-5-1 record is pretty awful, but they are only two games out in the surprisingly poor AFC North. They are not actually a bad team, but they seem to have been doomed by too many changes at once and things won’t quite come together. Whether certain parts of the team just got too old at the same time I don’t know, but most would consider the roster to be one of the most talented in the league. However, there have been so many changes with a new offensive coordinator and several new postition coaches on defence, and nothing has looked quite right. The lack of consistency is what is hampering the Bengals and those who have been calling for Marvin Lewis to be fired are unlikely to be quietened by anything other than a major turnaround in the second half of the season and post season success.

There are so many moving parts in an NFL franchise, that playing within a structure that is supposed to promote parity, it hardly a surprise that it is hard to be consistently good. Only the very best and worst are standing out at the moment, but whilst you will frequently hear people questioning decisions, you also frequently hear criticisms of such and such is a bad coach, and I’m not always sure that is fair.

In some corners of the NFL coverage you will frequently hear disparaging comments about Andy Reid’s clock management, and these are not entirely without merit, however as demonstrated by their come back on Sunday, even when the Chiefs fall into a hall the players believe in Reid and keep playing. He has won an awful lot of football games, and there is a lot more to being a head coach that clock management. If you get a chance, listen to Ron Riviera talking on this week’s Peter King podcast to get a flavour of what the coaches are going through. I do sometime feel that coaches are wedded to the way they were brought up in football, but there is a constant search for the next small advantage that could turn a game and we don’t always get to see or hear about them.

In a changing game with so much variation from season to season, the sustained success of the Patriots and Seahawks are all the more remarkable, and whilst there is a lot to take from the recent string of Bengals success, they still haven’t won a playoff game since 1990, the longest in the league. In a results based world like the NFL, people’s jobs are tied to very variable results and this does not always lead to better results, but with the seasons that the Bengals are having, much like the Packers who are a team who also have a history of patience with coaches, change could be in the air at the end of the season. There is still over a quarter of the season to go, but things are getting serious now so let’s see what happens.

 

Saints @ Panthers (-3.5)

I got bitten by the line last week, but whilst the Saints are a better team than the Browns, and have a better record than the Panthers, the Panthers played well for long stretches against the Kansas City Chiefs and have looked a lot more like themselves in recent weeks. It may be too late for a playoff push, but I’m not picking against them at home in this Thursday night game.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:         Panthers

Week Ten Picks

13 Sunday Nov 2016

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A strange week all round, but here are our week ten picks.

Gee:      Week 9   8-5                       Overall   61-72
Dan:       Week 9   7-6                       Overall   56-77

Falcons @ Eagles (-0.5)

The Eagles started strongly, but they have fallen back in recent weeks and face a tough test in this game as the Falcons come to Philadelphia with their league leading offence. The Eagles stand atop of the overall DVOA rankings thanks to a big win against the Steelers and some close losses, but whilst their offence continues to struggle I think they will find it hard to keep up with the Falcons in this one, even if Wentz did lead a comeback against the Giants last week.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Bears @ Buccaneers (+0.5)

I like the Bears in this game as their defence seems to be coming together in the front seven, and the Buccaneeers are really struggling. It worries me that the Bucs have lost their four home games this season as you can’t see this team losing all their home games having won three on the road, but things do not seem to be coming together, and Jameis Winston doesn’t seem to have taken the step forward that I though he had after their first game. Partly this could be to do with the lack of running game on their offence, but I see them losing this one despite the Bears own problems this season.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Broncos @ Saints (-1.5)

The real problem for the Broncos would be a combination of their lack of running game and the small cracks that have appeared in their defence. The injury to CJ Anderson seems to have broken the Broncos run game, and whilst Trevor Siemian looked good managing the offence when it was based around the run, he has struggled to carry the team. Meanwhile, on defence the injury to Aqib Talib has hurt their coverage and they struggled to stop the run against the Raiders last week. The Saints offence has looked good all year, and while most teams can run on the 49ers as the Saints did last week, I like the look of both Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower and I struggle to see the Broncos as currently constructed keeping up with the Saints offence at home. I would have not picked this game like this a few weeks ago, but I like the Saints in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Packers @ Titans (+2.5)

This is a rare narrative pick for me, as whilst I could see the Titans doing something at home given how they have played this year, and the Packers undoubtedly have problems, I can’t quite pick the Titans to win. The Packers have shown glimpses of themselves during the season, but have been unable to get things going consistently. However, after last week’s flat performance and all the talk after it, I can’t see them playing that way again.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Chiefs @ Panthers (-2.5)

The Panthers are looking much more like themselves over the past couple of weeks, but they are still a 3-5 team welcoming a very good Chiefs team who have a 6-2 record this season. The Chiefs may not be an exciting team to many, but they win a lot of games and I think they are the better team even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Rams @ Jets (-1.5)

The LA Rams are something of a mess, which goes deeper than just their first overall pick quarterback not being ready to play yet, even if that is what most people are talking about. The Jets are not exactly a great team themselves, but as the home team I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Vikings @ Washington (-2.5)

Washington are coming off a bye and look to be shaping up well although they are going to really miss left tackle Trent Williams as he starts his four game ban for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy. However, whilst this make me nervous as I have been really impressed with the Washington Line, the Vikings seasons seems to be coming undone as the injuries seem to have it critical mass on offence whilst the defence isn’t quite playing up to the standards it set earlier in the season. Time will tell if new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur can turn things round, but having lost to the Lions last week at home in a game they really should have seen out for a win, I’m not backing them against a rested Washington team playing at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Texans @ Jaguars (+1.5)

This is a straight forward pick as although I don’t like the Texans much due to the problems they are having on offence, they should still have enough to beat a Jaguars team who are having one of the most disappointing seasons in the league.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Dolphins @ Chargers (-3.5)

This should be a really great game as the Dolphins pit their improved offensive line and three game winning streak against a Chargers team who are playing better than their record would suggest. After the horrible run of bad losses at the start of the year, the Chargers defence looks to be coming together and you always have a chance with Philip Rivers at quarterback, plus with the Dolphins travelling all the way to San Diego I am backing the Chargers to win. Sorry Dan.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Cowboys @ Steelers (-2.5)

The Cowboys are a really good team, and I can easily see them winning this game, but I doubt they are going to go through the rest of the season without winning and the Steelers really need this game. Now that Ben Roethlisberger has his first game back under his belt, they really need to get things back on track if they are not going to slip too far behind the Ravens in the AFC North. There is too much talent on the Steelers’ offence to be down for the rest of the season and I think they get back on track this week. Or I could be proved very wrong, but I think this is a good spot for the Steelers.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

49ers @ Cardinals (-13.5)

This line is huge, but the 49ers run defence is truly abysmal and David Johnson is up there with the best running backs in the game and so I’m placing my faith in him and Bruce Arians’ staff. The Cardinals’ defence is playing really well this year, and I think they have too much for the 49ers although it is nice to see some signs in last week’s game that Colin Kaepernick is getting back to being a good quarterback.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Seahawks @ Patriots (-7.5)

This should be a great game, but the Seahawks have played a series of tough games that relied on extensive play by their excellent defence, whilst the Patriots are coming of a bye week. The Seahawks are one of the few teams that can play with the Patriots when they are at their best, but in this particular game with Tom Brady playing so well I see this being the wrong time for the Seahawks to be playing them in New England.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Bengals @ Giants (-2.5)

Oh how this game scares me. The Bengals need to get things back on track fast, and although it was good to see Tyler Eifert back and playing well in London, there is not a lot of room for manoeuvre if the men in stripes want to get back to the playoffs. I still don’t have a handle on the Giants, but with a run of three wins and two passing rushing ends that could trouble an offensive line that has not been good this season, I’m kind of nervously hoping for the best.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Thursday Night Pick

10 Thursday Nov 2016

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A strange week, too much work, and now two people picking the Browns:

Browns @ Ravens (-10.5)

So if last week’s Thursday night road team selection was based on the Falcons being a better team than the Buccaneers, this week’s is due to the Raven’s needing an eleven point in margin to cover this game and their sputtering offence being ranked dead last by DVOA. The Raven’s defence is playing really well, but it is a defence that Hue Jackson is familiar with given his history in the AFC North and having only lost by five points earlier in the season, I’m backing the Browns to keep this one close as well and will be very smug come Friday morning, or kicking myself a lot!

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:         Browns

Falcons @ Buccaneers

06 Sunday Nov 2016

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28
Atlanta Falcons 43

This turned out to be a fairly straight forward win for the Falcons as they eased away in the second half and withstood a late push from the Buccaneers when the game was already out of reach.

The Buccaneers started off the game well, their opening drive going for a touchdown as their offence moved the ball, particularly through the air. The problem for them was however the costly mistakes they made rather than general bad play. In many games, throwing for two hundred and sixty-one yards and three touchdowns would win you the game, but sadly whilst Mike Evans caught eleven balls for one hundred and fifty of those yards as well as two of the touchdowns, he also had too many drops. If you are a Bucs fan Evans must be a frustrating player as he is capable of great catches, and made a spectacular one handed grab near the side line in this game, but he also drops easy balls that a receiver of his quality should really catch. There were plenty of other players catching the ball, but the real problems were a combination of the running game where the Buccaneers have lots of injuries, and turnovers with the Buccaneers fumbling the ball twice and were lucky to only give up field goals off these turnovers. One of the fumbles was particularly bad as a problem with the hand-off was exacerbated by defensive end Adrian Clayborn getting into the backfield and disrupting the play allowing linebacker De’Vondre Campbell to knock the ball out of Antone Smith’s hands. The other was again in the first quarter when Jameis Winston was trying a quarterback sneak to pick up a first down on third and one. However, the inability of the Bucs to sustain drives meant that they could not keep up with the top ranked offence by DVOA in the league.

The Falcons defence is not even in the top twenty of the league by DVOA, but it is doing enough for them to win games. The Buccaneers had success moving the ball through the air, but the Falcons defence did enough against the run and rushed the passer enough to get them the win. The combination of players in the front seven is starting to come together with Vic Beasley beginning to develop in his second year, even if he isn’t the pass rusher they had hoped for, but combined with Adrian Clayborn and others the Falcons managed three sacks and eight quarterback hits in this game. They are not a particularly good defence, but they are trending in the right direction and if they can keep doing enough whilst the Falcons offence is this good then they should keep winning games.

The Falcons offence just kept rolling in this one, with Matt Ryan throwing for three hundred and forty-four yards and four touchdowns. Julio Jones started the game quietly in the first quarter, but finished the game with one hundred and eleven yards and a touchdown. Fellow receiver Taylor Gabriel caught the eye with his speed, catching five passes for fifty-two yards with a long of twenty-six, but also running for twenty-four yards after taking two hand-offs whilst in motion. Devonta Freeman fan for over four yards a carry as he racked up seventy-seven yards and the team managed a total of one hundred and thirty-six yards on the ground. Balance seems to be the watchword for the Falcons this year, with the running game working well in tandem with the passing game, Mohamed Sanu establishing himself as the second receiver opposite Julio Jones. In fact Matt Ryan had seven different players catch the ball in this game, and with an offensive line that is playing well, it is easy to see why the Falcons have looked as good as anyone on offence this year.

The Buccaneers defence struggled in this game, often the Falcons were able to attack the seams of their zone coverage when passing the ball, and whilst the Buccaneers had to sustain drives for long periods to score, the Falcons frequently were able to get long plays in the air. The Bucs defence was able to make the Falcons kick field goals a couple of times, but they only generated one turnover and the Falcons did not have to punt the ball once. They did manage to get eight quarterback hits but Gerald McCoy was often doubled teamed and he was only able to get one sack as for the most part this defence did not catch the eye. That is perhaps is not surprising given the offence they were playing against, but it does make me want to go to the coaching tape at some point to find out if I can see a bit more clearly what is going on.

Overall the Falcons are now 6-3, and are the better team. They were able to keep sustaining their success, particularly on offence and ran out easy winners, scoring over forty points for the third time this season. They got off to a great start last year but could not sustain it, but things look to be a bit more stable this year although there are some tough games against the Eagles, Cardinals, and Chiefs on the horizon.

The Buccaneers looked okay on offence, but they are struggling to run the ball thanks to injuries, whilst their defence still needs work. They went 6-10 last season, and having gone 3-5 in the first half this year, it does not look like they are going to be improving on that record particularly soon.

Week Nine Picks

06 Sunday Nov 2016

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I had a slightly better result last week, but I need to have a few more weeks like that to get back to having more games pick right than wrong so on to this week nine’s picks.

Gee:      Week 8   8-5                       Overall   53-67
Dan:      Week 8  4-9                       Overall   49-71

Dallas Cowboys @ Browns (+7.5)

The Cowboys are looking like one of the class teams of the NFC, but they had a big win in overtime against the Eagles and now they are travelling to Cleveland to face a Browns team who were up 20-7 at half time and still found a way to lose. I’m pretty certain the Cowboys will win, but the points give me pause, but although the Browns usually play fairly well before losing, the games they have kept close were against lesser teams and I think they’re going to struggle in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Lions @ Vikings (-6.5)

This is a lot of points for the Vikings to be giving the Lions given that they have lost two straight and just had their offensive coordinator resign, even if amicably. However, they have been on the road for the last two weeks and I have been impressed with the home advantage they have in their new stadium. The problem is that whilst I didn’t think the Lions had the defence to worry the troubled Vikings offensive line, a quick check of the adjusted sack rate on Football Outsiders has them ranked thirteenth, one place behind last week’s Chicago. Ultimately I think the Vikings get things back on track in wins and losses, but I can’t pick them to win by seven. I could regret this…

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Jaguars @ Chiefs (-8.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs keep rolling on whilst the Jaguars are mired in mediocrity again. The Chiefs might be down to their backup quarterback, but I see them winning the game, but the nine points required to cover does give me pause. The Jaguars have just fired their offensive coordinator, and you might well expect a bounce back as they rally round the new coordinator, and with the Chiefs having a backup quarterback and injuries at running back it looks like a good spot for the Jaguars. The problem is that I don’t trust them at all whilst I trust Andy Reid and Arrow Head is a difficult place to visit, still I think this is too many points to give away. Eek!

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Jets @ Dolphins (-3.5)

This game pits strength against strength as the Dolphins welcome the Jets to Miami and set their running game against the New York Jets’ running defence, which is one of the few bits of their defence that is definitively working. However, whilst the Jets did get a win last week, it was against the Browns and with the Dolphins coming off two straight wins with Jay Ajayi rushing for two hundred yards in both games as the offensive line coming together a bit, I think the Dolphins will run out winners in this one even if Ajayi is unlikely to run for two hundred yards again.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Eagles @ Giants (-2.5)

The New York Giants seem to be very up and down, at least they are to me and I struggle to get a feel for them each week. However, I was impressed with the Eagles play last week, even if they did ultimately lose against the Cowboys. This may be their second road game in a row and coming after an overtime loss to face a team coming off their bye, but I think the Eagles are a better team, even if the Giants have far better passing options on paper. I could regret this, but I’m going with the road underdog in a bad spot.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Steelers @ Ravens (-0.5)

The indications are that Ben Roethlisberger might play against the Ravens, which makes this a tricky game to call as these divisional games are often close. The Ravens have lost four straight although they are coming off a bye, but so are the Steelers, yet I think they are the better team and if that offence clicks back into place it is terrifying. However, Roethlisberger often doesn’t look great in his first game back from injury. I’m going to back what I think is the better team in this one, but it is another tricky pick.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Panthers @ Rams (+3.5)

The big question in this game is whether the Panthers we saw las week was a one week blip or if they are back to something more like how they were last season. The complaints from Cam Newton about the calls he’s getting will be music to the ears of an aggressive Rams defence, but they have been struggling to get consistent results and I’m not sure what to expect from them coming off the bye. I can see this one going either way, particularly if Luke Kuechly can’t go having missed practice, so when you’re getting this many points against a team who are only 2-5 this season then you take the points.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Saints @ 49ers (+3.5)

There is only one unit I truly trust in this game, which is the Saints offence as Drew Brees continues to be great, and so I’m hitching this pick to his arm and hoping Brees won’t let me down.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Colts @ Packers (-6.5)

The Colts are not a good team, whilst I was impressed with the Packers play in a close loss to the Falcons in Atlanta. This week they return to Green Bay and with Aaron Rodgers looking a lot more like himself against the Packers, and a defence that is battling through its problems in the secondary, I think they are coming together nicely. I could see Andrew Luck covering this line at the end, but I think the Packers are too good for the Colts.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Titans @ Chargers (-5.5)

The Titans are coming off a big win and a long week after the demolition of the Jaguars on Thursday night of week eight, but they are travelling to San Diego to face a surging Chargers team. I was totally wrong about the impact of Joey Bosa’s holdout, and he really is coming into his own for the Chargers now rather than having the year written off. This line is really awkward as the Titans’ defence is still top ten and facing a Chargers team who look to be without their rookie tight end Hunter Henry who has got off to a great start. I think that the Chargers are the better team but I don’t know if they are going to win by six. I really don’t want to make a pick in this one…

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Broncos @ Raiders (+0.5)

The Raiders are doing well off the back of their stellar offence whilst the defence has really struggled. They have won all five of their road games whilst only managing a solitary win out of their three home games. This week they welcome the Denver Broncos who have the defence to contain Carr and Amari Cooper, and in what is a pick’em game I am going to back the Broncos as they punish me every time I don’t. They also have a better offence than Raiders have defence, but I’m really looking forward to watching this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Bills @ Seahawks (-7.5)

There is talk that LeSean McCoy will be back for this game, but hamstrings are tricky injuries to deal with, and in the meantime the Bills are so desperate for options on offence that they have signed Percy Harvin back from retirement. He is only twenty-eight and they will be hoping that the time off will have helped him heal the nagging injuries that plagued him last season, but it is not an obviously great move. The Seahawks defence has looked as good as ever this season, but their offense has had problems thanks to a shaky offensive line and the resulting injuries to Russell Wilson. I’m putting last week’s loss down to the extra fifteen minutes they played against the Cardinals in week seven, but whilst I expect the Seahawks to with this game, I’m not sure they will win by eight points.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Why a Draw is Not the End of the World

03 Thursday Nov 2016

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I know that football’s hatred of ties is cultural. One of the things that confuses Americans most about test cricket is the prospect that you could play a game of five days and not get a result. However, despite what many of them might claim, life is not all about winners and losers, it is more nuanced than that and so perhaps football can learn a thing or two from sports that do end in a tie.

Sunday’s game between Washgington and the Cincinnati Bengals was not an easy one to watch as a nervous Bengals fan going through a tough season where things are not quite coming together and surrounded by Washington fans. I don’t want to speak to for others, but I find it is hard to chant lustily about who is going to beat dem Bengals when the team has a losing record. Perhaps that says more about how I look at sport, but I really want to get to a game in the States one day as I’d love to experience the real home game atmosphere. We all know that the London games offers a different fan experience as the stadium is full of general NFL fans, with every team being represented so it is not unknown for the nominated away to team to have more fans or win the neutrals over more than the hosting team. However, the game was tense to the end, with some calling it the best of the London games.

The result doesn’t really help either team in the hunt for a playoff berth, but at least they are spared playing next week with both teams on byes. The Arizona Cardinals and the Seattle Seahawks were not so lucky and both lost this week having played a full fifteen minutes of overtime to come to their own draw in week seven. This did not surprise me as I watched the same happen to the Bengals and Carolina Panthers when they had the last tie back in 2014. In an age where player safety is supposed to be paramount, I’m not sure that forcing players to play up to another 25% of football is really justified, given the effect that it has on the teams in the following week and the risks to tired players. There has been grumbling about the overtime rules for a number of years, so why not simply do away with overtime until the playoffs.

Sometimes a drawer can feel like a win. Michael Atherton’s famous innings where he batted for 643 minutes across two days was career defining and is still talked about as he managed to lead his England team to an unlikely draw against South Africa. Life is complex and so is a sport like American Football. Do we really want to further tinker with rules and watch more games failed to be decided by the boots of kickers? Sometimes a draw can feel slightly lucky, and despite Mike Nugent’s missed extra point that could have won the Bengals’ the game, things could have easily gone the other way as Washington seemed to have the momentum for large stretches of the game and missed their own field goal in extra time.

However, in the regular season there is no real reason to force a result for every game. The NFL schedule is already constructed in such a way to account for the fact that you cannot play a league format where every team plays each other home and away. The separation by wins and losses does not get broken by introducing tied games; it is not so much harder to say three, four, and one instead of three and four, so why not save overtime for the playoffs?

Be it the penalty shootouts of football or hockey, or field goal at the end of overtime, none of these feel that satisfactory so let us have a draw. Neither team were able to force a result, they get punished for not getting the win without quite getting the loss either. Meanwhile, they don’t face an unfair disadvantage the following week, and we learn that sport like life can be complicated and end without a clear winner. It’s time to get on with the next game.

Falcons @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

My plan is to pick home teams for the Thursday night game unless there’s a compelling reason not to based on the points or a much better team being on the road. In this case, the Falcons are coming off a close win against the Green Bay Packers to stand atop the NFC South at 5-3, whilst the Bucs lost in overtime to the Raiders. The fact that this is a divisional game may throw a spanner in the works, but with the topped ranked offence in the league by DVOA and a defence that is showing some progress I’m backing the Falcons to cover in this game against a team that are ranked twenty-one place lower by overall DVOA.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Week Eight Picks

29 Saturday Oct 2016

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I’m working on this and putting it up early as I am off to Wembley tomorrow.

I shouldn’t be panicking too much as I only hit 45 points a week earlier last year, but I have been under .500 for most of the season and it is beginning to bug me, even if Dan has only pulled back level with me this week.

Gee:      Week 7   4-11                     Overall   45-62
Dan:      Week 7   5-10                     Overall   45-62

Washington @ Bengals (-2.5)

Washington are following up their road loss in Detroit by flying to London to play the Cincinnati Bengals as the road team. They look to have solidified the after their poor start to the season, but are facing the Bengals coming off their first thirty point game of the season having beaten the Cleveland Browns. We will have to see if Josh Norman or Jordan Reed will play given their recent concussion issues, but I’m picking in hope of witnessing a win tomorrow, even if it would be a very Bengals thing to lose the first game that I can actually get to see them play in person.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengal  s
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Patriots @ Bills (+6.5)

The hamstring injury to LeSean McCoy is a big worry for the Bills, as will have been giving up over two hundred yards on the ground to the Miami Dolphins on the other side of the ball. They may be back in Buffalo, but I find it hard to look past a New England Patriots team that will be looking to avoid a season white wash against the Bills.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Jets @ Browns (+3.5)

The New York Jets might have got an unexpected win last week, but they are only 0.4% better by overall DVOA than the Browns, and are on the road in Cleveland. I could really regret this, but the Browns don’t look to be a zero win team and this game is as good a chance for them to get a win as they are likely to get, and I think getting these points I’m going to back them to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Lions @ Texans (-2.5)

The Texans are one of the more Jekyll and Hyde team with a defence that ranks just outside the top ten by DVOA and an offence that is flat last. The Detroit Lions did enough last week to win, and are the inverse of the Texans with a defence flat last in the league by DVOA, and an offence that ranks thirteenth. However, they have distinctly better ranked special teams and a quarterback who is working well with his offensive coordinator and I choose this week to put my faith in that.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Chiefs @ Colts (+2.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs are a better team than the Indianapolis Colts, and have the running backs to trouble the Colts defence even if things haven’t been flashy for the Chiefs on offence this year. It is possible that I am being overly harsh on the Colts, and perhaps I should trust them at home getting points, but I don’t and so I’m picking the Chiefs in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Raiders @ Buccaneers (-0.5)

The Buccaneers may have done better last week, but it was against the 49ers and whilst they will likely have some success against the Raiders poor defence, the Raiders have actually been better on the road than in Oakland. Perhaps the weather in Tampa Bay will cause them problems, but I’m happy to be getting a half point as I think the Raiders are the better team.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Seahawks @ Saints (+3.5)

The next couple of games I am picking based on what happen to both the Panthers and the Bengals the last time there was a tie that involved both teams playing an entire quarter of overtime, which was both teams came out very flat and lost. So with the Saints getting three and a half points going against a team whose offence is struggling and unlikely to take advantage of the Saints poor defence, I’m backing the Saints to cover at home with them getting this many points.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Cardinals @ Panthers (-2.5)

The Panthers are coming off a bye and desperately need to get their season going, even if it may already be too late. The real weakness of their defence has been the secondary, but whilst the Cardinals may have found a winning formula, David Johnson carried the ball a lot last week against the Seahawks and Carson Palmer has not looked himself this season and so again with the Cardinals having played five quarters of football last week, I’m backing the Panthers to win a game they really can’t afford to lose.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Chargers @ Broncos (-5.5)

The Denver Broncos got back on track with healthy win over the Houston Texans last week, and had a much better balance of run to pass plays. However, whilst the San Diego Chargers have a worse record right now, they are very possibly a better team than the Texans and certainly a DVOA ranking of eleven would point that way. I like them to come into Denver and at least keep it closer than six points.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Packers @ Falcons (-2.5)

The Packers got the win against the Bears at home in Green Bay last week despite their injury problems at running back, but they are not exactly back to their fluent best. The Atlanta Falcons lost in overtime to the San Diego Chargers, but their offence was playing at a higher level than the Packers before they developed problems of their own at running back. This should be a good game, but I’m backing the Falcons at home to pick up the win, even if I don’t feel that confident about it.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Eagles @ Cowboys (-4.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles got a great win against the Vikings last week, but their defence is going up against a very different proposition in the Dallas Cowboys offensive line. The Cowboys have built momentum and I think they will carry it through against a team who have been a little up and down. I could be underestimating the Eagles, and certainly Dan’s pick would indicate that I am, but I’m sticking by my instinct in this one despite being off so often this year.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Vikings @ Bears (+6.5)

The Chicago Bears have got Jay Cutler coming back after Brian Hoyer broke his arm last week, but how much of a bump that will be I don’t know, and I think it is more likely that the Vikings will bounce back. There were signs of a pass rush from the Bears last week so the Vikings problems on the offensive line do worry me a little, but I trust Mike Zimmer and his staff to get things back on track and so I’m backing the Vikings to cover this line. I just hope my change in pick doesn’t bite me.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Does the NFL Have a Problem?

27 Thursday Oct 2016

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It seems that everyone is writing some variation on what is wrong with the NFL, or questioning whether there are any good teams. The ratings for TV in the States are down, and the quality of the prime time games has been called into question, yet as ever, I think that the situation is more complicated than that.

Certainly there do seem to have been a lot of less than stellar games in the prime time slots, but part of that is due to the lack of flexing games until later in the season, and the very nature of the Thursday games. As it allows me to watch every team, and I get a chance to watch without knowing the score, I watch and write up the Thursday night games and you can frequently see them descend into an easy win for the home team. Playing a game three days early when it takes a week to recover has always caused problems for NFL teams, and it certainly calls into question the NFL’s claim that safety is their prime concern.

However, whilst these games are deliberately chosen to show case every team to the nation, the big prime time Sunday night and Monday night games are meant to be the best of the week’s matchups. The problem with that though, is these fixtures are selected whilst the army of computers that are used to churn out the schedule are working overtime to find the best fit that they can out of the incredibly complex mix of team requirements, TV requirements, the cycle of divisional opponents and various other factors that goes into making the NFL schedule. The difficulty being that when these decisions are being made, nobody knows who the good teams are going to be in the upcoming season. Even a safe looking selection like the New England Patriots visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers can take a turn for the worse when an important player like Ben Roethlisberger picks up and injury that keeps him out of the game.

There has been mention of the NFL having gone up against the presidential debates, but whilst there is a lot of focus on the race, the league have only had games go up directly against two of the three televised debates. So what is going on?

Part of it could well be that the NFL seems to be lacking teams that are definitively good this season. Week seven saw the last undefeated record go, and there are only three teams with a solitary loss. The New England Patriots look as good as anyone now that Tom Brady has come back from his suspension, but their defence seems to lack pass rushing and may be vulnerable to a high powered offence. The Dallas Cowboys have looked good as they have gone 5-1, largely thanks to the performance of two key rookies on offence and a defence that seems to have made a definite step up in play when compared to last season. The only other team to with a solitary loss are the Minnesota Vikings who were the last undefeated team this year, but the injuries to their already suspect offensive line allowed the Philadelphia Eagles to pressure them into a loss. This is a team that has already lost their starting quarterback to a practice injury in the preseason and their leading rusher.

Not team is ever perfect, but it feels like the presence of a major flaw is looming over a lot of teams this season. The Seattle Seahawks are as competitive a team in the league, but their offensive line is not good, and now an injured Russell Wilson is struggling to perform behind it. The Atlanta Falcons have the second ranked offence by DVOA, but their defence is ranked a lowly twenty-sixth and such a disparity makes it hard to look like a super team.

Once again though, there could be more to it. Certainly the games haven’t always been the best spectacle, people want excitement, and when games are being called with so many penalties as they currently are, it is hard to keep people engaged. My only personal frustration is the five yard illegal contact that seems to get called the moment a corner back breathes on a receiver, along with an unnecessarily generous automatic first down. If you are going to call a penalty that often, it shouldn’t just come with a first down, and a bit of hand fighting is hardly the biggest problem in the NFL. In fact I’ll try to approach that right now.

There are so many topics to cover and once again I am running out of time so let’s circle round to the biggy, at the centre of so many questions. The league office, and in particular Roger Goodell. There have been many words dedicated to his performance over the last couple of years. For a very on point summary of his handling of the Josh Brown case look no further than Sally Jenkins in the Washington Post (article here) and the really troubling this is that we have been here before and Goodell has not learnt his lessons. So the NFL are stuck with a commissioner who is happy to fine players for daring to twerk in the end zone, but can’t stick to his own policy on domestic abuse and yet again is blaming local law enforcement. The owners are happy to have him as he acts as firewall for criticism aimed at the league, but with dropping ratings, questions about safety and concussions, plus for possibly the first time there is potentially a serious rival league in the NBA who might be able to mount a genuine attempt at replacing football as America’s number one sport, it might be time for them to realise that the NFL is not too big to fail.

It is a long way from that, but they have to address youth football, get out of their own way when it comes to officiating, and find the right balance between player safety and allowing coaches to coach. To look at whether the rosters are too young, what new training tools like the robotic tackling dummies that we saw in this seasons Hard Knocks can give to the game. Football can be a conservative game, but with the challenges it faces, and to ensure its policy, it has to look to the future and embrace it, and that might just mean a forward looking commissioner that inspires confidence.

Of course, in four weeks’ time these stories could all just disappear, but the problems won’t and that should concern owners, players, and fans alike.

Jaguars @ Titans (-3.5)

My rule for the Thursday night games going forward is to always pick the home team unless there is a compelling number of points, or an amazingly good team on the road against a poor team. By this formula there is nothing about the Jaguars who seem to have gone backwards this season on offence for me to do anything other than pick the Titans.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Week 7: Bears at Packers

23 Sunday Oct 2016

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Green Bay Packers 26
Chicago Bears 10

This was another strange Thursday night game which didn’t quite take off, and was further hampered by the injury to Brian Hoyer in the second quarter, which allowed the Packers to grind out the win despite their problems at running back.

The Packers offence managed to rack up over one hundred yards of running in this game despite their two leading rushers being receivers Ty Montgomery and Randall Cobb, but nothing was quite fluent for most of the game. Yet again there were sections of the game where no receivers were getting open, and the Bears were able to pressure Aaron Rodgers as he was unable to find someone to pass to. That said, thanks to a game flow where the Bears offence offered very little, the defence wore down and the Packers finished with very credible numbers. For all of his drops last season, Davante Adams looked like a different player as he caught thirteen of sixteen for one hundred and thirty-two yards and two touchdowns. Equally Randall Cobb finished with ninety-five yards receiving to go with his twenty-one yards of rushing, but Ty Montgomery should get special mention for gaining sixty yards on nine carries as well as sixty-six yards receiving as he lined up all over the formation. In the end Aaron Rodgers’ numbers looked much like their usual self as he throw for over three hundred yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. However, the Packers had to work hard for these and it could be an interesting few weeks for Green Bay.

For the first half of the game and into the third quarter the Bears defence kept Green Bay out of the end zone, and were causing them all kinds of problems with their coverage holding up and they were able to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers. Their first round draft pick Leonard Floyd caught the eye with two sacks and three quarterback hits, as well as scoring the Bears’ only touchdown of the game when he sacked Rodgers causing a fumble and was able to recover the ball in the end zone. However, with their offence offering very little after Brian Hoyer went out injured the Bears defence wore down and having given up the odd pass interference call in the first half, receivers started to get open and then penalties started to crop up. There was one pretty dubious pass interference call, but De’Vante Buasby’s name started to crop up in bad ways down the stretch as things got desperate for the Bears.

The Bears offence finished with anaemic numbers, only going for sixty-nine yards rushing as they struggled against the Packers defence that has looked good against the run for most of the season. They really were not able to sustain anything, and even more so once Brian Hoyer went down with a broken arm in the second quarter. But it should be noted that Hoyer was only four of eleven for forty-nine yards when he went down, whilst Matt Barkley went for six of fifteen but also managed to throw two interceptions. The second was particularly bad as he tried to throw the ball away as he was being sacked and basically just threw it up in the air for the Packers to intercept. With Hoyer out things could be rough for the offence for a while, unless Jay Cutler comes back from his thumb injury playing much better than he had been before he went down. Certainly Barkley didn’t seem to offer much, but it’s hard to read too much into either running back’s game from this performance alone.

The Packers defence did what they had to in this one, stuffing the run and covering receivers enough to prevent the Bears from moving the ball, but when facing a unit that seemed to be struggling so much it is hard to tell too much from it. They were on the field for nineteen minutes less than the Bears and only gave up a field goal in the second quarter, but it was a team effort rather than any particular player standing out, at least that’s how it looked  from the standard TV coverage.

Overall, the Bears offence gave one of the worst performances I’ve seen this season, and caused their defence to wear down after starting off strongly. The Packers did what they needed to do, but I am curious to see how they will play going forward, but it feels like they will be somewhere around ten wins again.