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The Disappointed Twenty

07 Saturday Jan 2017

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So with the playoffs starting this weekend I thought I would say goodbye to the teams that sadly didn’t make it to the post-season this year.

Buffalo Bills (7-9)

So one of the longer playoff droughts continues as once again the Bills fail to make the playoffs despite being competitive over the last three seasons. The Ryan brothers were fired, but Doug Whaley gets to keep his general manager job despite being the force behind EJ Manuel starting in week seventeen and given the dysfunction of the franchise, it could be a while yet before the Bill return to post-season. I am very confused by their dealings with Tyrod Taylor who is better than management clearly think he is, so it seems that Bills we be going into the offseason with questions about their quarterback, which seldom ends well.

New York Jets (5-11)

Tod Bowles gets to keep his job after a tough season where things were bad for long stretches, but the Jets are looking a bit old and will have to shore up their defence and find a long term solution to their problems at quarterback. This is another team where it could take some time to bounce back, particularly as the draft prospects at quarterback are not necessarily that exciting and the Jets have not had the most inspiring of front office approaches in recent years.

Baltimore Ravens (8-8)

The Ravens defence was strong, but the offence sputtered and in the end they couldn’t do enough to get into the playoffs for the second straight year. This was an improvement on their 2015 record of 5-11, but they will need to continue the overhaul of their roster and get more explosive on offence. I would expect a focus on passing targets for Joe Flacco, except this is definitely a team that drafts on best player available but I expect them to be competitive again next year.

Cincinnati Bengals (6-9-1)

A frustrating year for the Bengals that was foreseeable having lost three coordinators in two seasons as well as their number two and three receivers leave in free agency. More reliable kicking would certainly have helped them win more games, but it did look like some of the young receivers were coming on late in the season and first year co-ordinator Ken Zampese will be hoping he gets more games with AJ Green and Tyler Eifert together next year, although Eifert’s back injury is somewhat concerning. A year of stability and a good draft could see things turn round, but whilst no one can deny the transformation Marvin Lewis is responsible for in Cincinatti, it is increasingly hard to have faith that he will be able to get the team over the hump and into championship contention. Another big year awaits, but I feel like I say that every year for the Bengals.

Cleveland Browns (1-15)

This was always going to be a difficult year for the Browns and so it was, although it is hard to think of many teams who were as happy about any win as the Browns were when they beat the Chargers in week sixteen. The Browns need to make hay in the draft to move on, but I can still see the plan working if they stick to it, and the lack of firings so far should be seen as a positive sign, but this offseason needs to go well, particularly with some big free agents re-signing on the horizon.

Tennessee Titans (9-7)

It was a very hard end to the season for the Titans, but Marcus Matioa should come back from his broken leg next season to lead a team who stand as good a chance as anyone to compete in the AFC South. The extra pick they have in the draft thanks to trading down should help that process, and for a team who have been out of the playoffs since 2008, they will be a team to watch next season if they continue to develop as they did this year.

Indianapolis Colts (8-8)

The Colts pretty much alternated wins and losses in a year where Andrew Luck came back from the injuries that ruined the previous season and looked like the quarterback so many want him to be. The problem is that he still takes too many hits and there is not enough around him for the team to win consistently, which considering the division they play in is a worry. After some initial questions whether both Chuck Pagano and Ryan Grigson would keep their jobs, both head coach and general manager roll into the offseason with another chance to build a team that can break through to the next level, but you would have to think that they are running out of chances to succeed.

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13)

Head coach Gus Bradley paid the price for this team not being able to take the step that they kept promising to make, and in fact they had less wins than the previous year. Owner Shahid Khan has been very patient, and there is some talent on the roster so they could come together quickly, but the big question is how good Blake Bortles can be. He has come out after the season and said he was playing through two separated shoulders and wrist tendonitis, but the real issue was his mechanics. Unsurprisingly he has announced he will be working on these during the offseason, but he will need to be functionally good by the time next season starts. Obviously every quarterback would prefer to have perfect mechanics, but Philip Rivers has demonstrated that it is possible to function at a high level with less than perfect form, but Bortles will need consistent accuracy to find his promising young receivers more regularly. The offensive system and coaching he gets will go a long way to determine how the Jaguars go next season.

Denver Broncos (9-7)

Neither of last year’s Super Bowl teams made the playoffs this year, but the Broncos made the better attempt to get in, and if the AFC West hadn’t been so strong they might have made it. Unfortunately, whilst apart from one notable slip up against the Chiefs, the defence played well if not quite up to the standards of last year, but the offence struggled. The big problem for the Broncos was that Trevor Siemian was a good enough quarterback when the run game was working and Gary Kubiak could run his offence as he wanted, but when CJ Anderson went down with an injury the running game never quite recovered and Siemian couldn’t throw them to wins. Given his health problems I totally understand Kubiak’s decision to retire, and with John Elway’s recent run of decisions I expect to see the Broncos back in the playoff hunt again next season despite needing a new head coach.

San Diego Chargers (5-11)

The Charger fans must be some of saddest about their season with it looking like the team are leaving San Diego, the injuries mounted up to prevent them from competing. The Chargers were so hapless that even when they pick a great player like Joey Bosa in last year’s draft, his missed the start of the season through a contract dispute in an era where the contracts almost write themselves, and then he went down injured. The Chargers are looking for a new head coach to replace Mike McCoy and with all the upheaval it is hard to be hopeful about their prospects next season, although most teams are never too far away from turning things around, particularly if you have a quarterback of the ability of Philip Rivers.

Washington (8-7-1)

Washington had the fifth ranked offence in the NFL this season, with Kirk Cousins throwing for four thousand nine hundred yards, and went into week seventeen with their destiny in their own hands but could not get the win at home against the Giants they needed to make the playoffs. Their defence really struggled and they are looking for a new co-ordinator as they looks to fix that side of the ball in the offseason, but all the headlines will be about Kirk Cousins contact. I don’t like to be too prescriptive so I don’t want to say too much about whether applying the franchise tag for a second year will prevent them getting a long term deal, but Cousins feels like a very similar quarterback to Andy Dalton in that they get good numbers, but questions remain about their ability in the big moments. I think that Dalton has improved in this area as he has gained experience, and whilst you can’t truly comment without being in the building every day, from the outside I would be inclined towards doing a deal to sign up Cousins as there are simply not that many good quarterbacks in the league and with even an average defence Washington could make life very difficult for a lot of teams next season.

Philadelphia Eagles (7-9)

The Eagles couldn’t maintain their strong start to the season, but finished the year strongly and given the problems they had at receiver and corner, could be happy with the progress they made this year. Certainly it looks like they have their franchise quarterback for years to come in Carson Wentz, and the question will be how they choose to build a team around him, but my only concern going forward if I was an Eagles fan would be the strength of the division, which looks to be one of the best in the league given that 7-9 was only good enough for fourth.

Minnesota Vikings (8-8)

The piling up of injuries, at offensive tackle as much as anywhere, is what did for the Vikings who were the final undefeated team, but who could not maintain this success. The offence still needs work, whilst the defence stayed in the top ten by DVOA. You can read the declaration that Sam Bradford will be next year’s starter as taking the pressure of Teddy Bridgewater who has a long way to come back from his horrible pre-season knee injury. There have been no big changes in the front office, but there will be a lot of pressure on them to maintain their competitiveness given the trade to get Bradford, but with a shored up offensive line and a viable running back the Vikings will be a team to be feared next season.

Chicago Bears (3-13)

I appreciate the patience the Bears are showing in keeping John Fox as head coach, but whilst there are some hopeful signs for some players, the Bears are heading into the offseason looking for a quarterback. There is a lot of building to be done in Chicago, but I suspect that Fox will have to get his team to make definitive progress next year if he is to keep his job. However, if nothing else you have to think there will be some regression to the mean in terms of injuries and that alone could help the Bears win more games next season.

Tampa Bay (9-7)

Ten seems to be the magic number if you want to make sure that you get to the playoffs, but after a slightly shaky start the Buccaneers really improved, going on a five game win streak in the middle of the season that saw them beat the Chiefs and Seahawks in back to back weeks. They will obviously be disappointed to miss the playoffs, but this is a big step forward for a team that haven’t made the playoffs since 2007, even if they did get ten wins 2010. I was concerned by rookie head coach Dirk Koetter’s performance early in the year, but coaches as players have form and given the way they improved through the season it looks like the Bucs are set to kick on into next season.

New Orleans (7-9)

Once again New Orleans were close but couldn’t make the playoffs despite Drew Brees having another five thousand yard season. It looks as if Sean Payton is staying with the Saints as there are multiple changes to the coaching staff, but the Saints will need to improve the team around Brees despite the salary cap problems they still have if they are to get back to the playoffs. I have a nasty feeling that the Saints could be heading for more of the same, although it would be truly weird if they went 7-9 for a fourth straight year next season.

Carolina Panthers (6-10)

It is often hard for the losing Super Bowl team the next season, but the Panthers really struggled. They lost more than Josh Norman from their secondary, although he grabbed all the headlines, and the settling in of the rookies in the secondary contributed to this team falling to 1-5 from where they never really recovered. The offence also struggled with Cam Newton playing well below the peak he reached the previous season, the running game was often stalled, and the offensive line continued to have problems. There is plenty of work to do in the offseason, but what worries me most was the reaction of Luke Kuechly to his latest concussion and what his future could be. I would love to see him play and get back to his best, but I’m not sure I would enjoy it as with his concussion history he should very possibly retire. Only his doctors and he will know the whole truth of the matter, but in this modern NFL where we know so much more about head injuries it is hard to ignore such a situation and we really shouldn’t if we want to enjoy football being played.

Arizona Cardinals (7-8-1)

The Cardinals finished with a pretty credible record considering how much they struggled at times, and it will be interesting to see how the team responds to a season where they were very much in win now mode. Unfortunately Carson Palmer could not match the heights of his performance last season and the offensive line struggled to protect him. Indeed for large stretches of the season the offence seemed to revolve around David Johnson who is amongst the best backs in the league and the seemingly ageless Larry Fitzgerald whose move to slot receiver has paid dividends over the last couple of years. Their defence ranked third by DVOA and so they should have a strong chance to bounce back into the playoffs next year, but they will need to fix the offensive line and come up with more from their quarterback, be it Carson Palmer or someone else.

Los Angeles Rams (4-12)

Unfortunately for Jeff Fisher the Rams couldn’t even manage 7-9 bull excrement football this season. The offence was woeful all year, and questions surround the ability of Jared Goff who they traded up to select first overall in the draft. The defence has a lot of talent, but having won two games without scoring a touchdown things fell apart for them down the stretch and it is hard to think of a much worse start for the Rams in LA. All the talk is that they will need to make a splashy hire for their new coach to secure their place in a crowded LA sports scene, but I would argue the more important thing would be winning. An offensive minded coach makes sense given the talent on defence and the investment in a young quarterback, but despite having the talent of Todd Gurley at running back, it will be a big job to turn this team round even for an offensive mastermind.

San Francisco 49ers (2-14)

If the Cowboys entered week seventeen thirteen and Giants, then the 49ers finished the season Rams and fourteen with their only wins coming against their struggling divisional rivals. The 49ers have not only fired their coach, but also sent GM Trent Baalke packing after a series of problematic drafts. No team would have found it easy to recover the talent drain that occurred two seasons ago thanks to some big retirements, both timely and otherwise, but it hard to think of a bigger rebuild in the NFL. At least the Browns appear to have a plan and a bucket load of picks this offseason, not to mention and innovative offensive head coach whose schemes work. I don’t know if Chip Kelly will get another chance in the NFL, but I can’t see it as a head coach and I will be curious if any head coaches thinks they can play a complimentary style to Kelly’s up tempo offence, or if Kelly will be willing to more malleable in his approach. It could be a number of seasons before the 49ers return to competitiveness and a lot is resting on the hires that Jed York makes over the coming weeks.

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 37

29 Thursday Dec 2016

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Well with Christmas out of the way, it’s back to the Football – this week saw the AFC’s play-off team finalised as well as most of the NFC, so week 16 turned out to be an exciting Christmas present to us NFL fans, and we’ve watched some of the best of them! We also talk about what’s going on with Adrian Peterson in Minnesota, and what’s next for the newly job-less Rex Ryan… and with one week left, and just 1 point separating us, we reveal who we’ve picked for Week 17’s games.

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 37

Do I Contradict Myself?

19 Monday Dec 2016

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Do I contradict myself?
Very well then I contradict myself,
(I am large, I contain multitudes.)

Walt Whitman

The theme for this week could be a continuation of the grind mentioned last week alongside the inability for us bloggers to build our lives around writing, or at least for me at any rate.

This can be frustrating as there is a long piece to be written on the awkwardness I, and I know others feel, when talking about the performance of the Kansas City Chiefs’ Tyreek Hill. Although there is an excellent piece here from Vahe Gregorian on that matter.

This seems to be an example of someone’s ability determining their opportunity, as if Hill did not have such blazing speed, then it is hard to see a team selecting him with even a lowly draft pick after his pleading guilty to domestic abuse by strangulation.

This kind of contradiction rears its head again when the Patriots were the only team to put in a waiver claim and so picked up Michael Floyd after he was cut by the Arizona Cardinals after his DUI arrest. He was found passed out behind the wheel of a car and it is lucky that there were not worse consequences, but the Patriots felt his talent was worth the risk and bad press.

The importance of second chances and giving people the opportunity to develop and learn from their mistakes is often something that gets brought up in cases such as these. However, it is often hard to be sure where a team’s commitment to these ideals lies in relation to self-interest if the player can help the team’s performance. The NFL in particular has been very erratic in the way it has enforced discipline in these cases, which surely does not help.

Matters like driving under the influence or domestic abuse are reflections of wider society rather than a sports problem, and much like we too often create heroes out of ordinary men with skills out of sports, we too often turn people who are found guilty of these crimes into someone or something other. But these are people, doing horrible things, they are our neighbours and people we know. Because of the way sport is followed, there is an opportunity to engage with the public about these problems, there is education to be done. To help create an environment where victims can come forward and to educate us about how to help. Something we all could use.

There are those that get upset when you start exploring these issues as they come to sport to get away from the world. This is their escape, and to an extent I can understand why you might feel that way, but I can’t bring myself to agree. The very act of watching football is of itself conflicting. There are very real safety concerns that surround the game, and when you see a player like Richard Sherman frequently comment negatively on the league’s commitment to player safety and then deliver the kind of hit he did to Jared Goff on Thursday, or perhaps more troubling, the blow to the back of Davante Adam’s head the week before, it highlights the violence inherent in the sport. They may not sell football with hit compilations like they used to, and many people now watch the game in a different way when those hits occur, but football is still a brutal game.

I don’t watch football to see people get hurt, but I do like defence. I like the tactics of offence versus defence, and pass rushing is something I have always enjoyed, but we are now aware of the cumulative effect of giving and receiving hits on a football player. We don’t know how football is going to change and be in twenty or thirty years. We don’t know how the league will continue to influence and reflect society.

It is not so unusual for there to be conflicting facts in our lives, and so even in a supposed meritocracy like sport, you can’t escape them because in truth, sport is a just another part of a confusing and complex world. The closer you look, for more dissonance you can find. I would love to have a neat summary right now, but I don’t think there is one, which again is not so unusual, winners and losers, final scores, they belong on the pitch but even they aren’t the whole story. Sorry about that.

The Season Grinds On

11 Sunday Dec 2016

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We’re into the final quarter of the season now. The grind that everyone talks about must have kicked in, and you can see why the routines of players can become so important, or at least as someone who writes about the league I can.

One of the podcasts I follow announced that they were stopping this week, and whilst their pick competition continues, all the work that goes into prepping, recording, editing, and finally publishing can stop.

We at the Wrong Football had our own bye week for the podcast caused by work, and it is coming to that time of year where the holidays interrupt our routines. There’s been a birth in my family, and things going on that disrupt my routine, and once more I have failed to find the time to watch coaching tape. It’s one of those things for those of us who cover a sport alongside our day job.

I don’t think you would find many of those who work in the NFL, whose life is focused the other way round, who would complain about it but it must be hard. They have been working solidly with very little time off for a long time now, and whilst they are heading into the final stretch of the season, they will be having very different feelings.

Those teams way out of the playoff hunt will be playing for pride and to keep their careers. Everyone on the Browns will be straining to get a win, desperate not to be the second team ever to lose every game, but I am beginning to wonder if they can get that precious win.

The teams in the playoff hunt will be trying to convince themselves they still stand a chance, but if you need to win the rest of your games to make it, then it is doubtful that you will. It’s not impossible, but whilst as a fan I recognise the train of thought, it will be an unlikely thing to pull off.

However, for these teams, and the rest, I’m sure the coaches will be stressing one game at a time. This reflects the way I feel you have to approach large tasks. In my other writing world, I write novels. Of differing lengths, but they are all long term endeavours that require a degree of planning, but the thing I want to focus on is the grind.

You don’t write a novel in a day. In my experience you don’t write one in the short bursts of intensive activity as sometimes portrayed in films. In fact, I stay well clear of the November novel writing month as I don’t have the time to write that many words a day. I have daily word targets, achievable ones that I focus on and keep doing until suddenly I have a book. And then I have to start editing and fixing, using the same quantities of time to go through multiple drafts and edits, polishing until I am happy the book is as good as I can make it.

I mention this as it reminds me of when coaches talk about focusing on one game at a time. You can’t focus on the big picture too much as you are not present for what you are doing right now. And when the margins between winning and losing are so close, you need the players to be focused in the moment. There are still plenty of teams that will be talking about winning the Super Bowl, even if some have more realistic chances than others, but they are steps you have to take along the way. Win this week. Get into the playoffs. Keep winning. Only one team gets to do that, and whilst we have already ruled some teams, we are not very far away from having the final twelve teams to make the playoffs. That’s only 37.5% of the league. Only a little above a third of the league.

We will soon have a clearer idea of who those teams will be, in the next few weeks the maths will ensure more teams fall out of the playoffs definitively, fan attention turning to the off-season already. However, there’s not that much football played during the year, so I’ll be focused on the best games I can find and the playoffs. Even though the Bengals have fallen short this year, and I’ll be wondering about coaching changes and off-season moves. I’ll have to focus on one week at a time. Something I’m not unused to, and whilst there is a word of physical and other talent differences between myself and any NFL player, it’s never a bad idea to remember they are fellow human beings. There are parallels between them and the fan. It makes what they do all the more remarkable.

Sunday Thoughts

04 Sunday Dec 2016

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It has been a frustrating season as a Bengals fan, but there comes a point where you have to accept that the playoffs really are out of reach, and whilst that happened to me a couple of weeks ago, the optimist in me still tries to hang on to hope for a couple of weeks. I am dreading what Fletcher Cox could do against the Bengals this week, but mainly I’ll be curious about what is going on with the rest of the league.

The Cowboy ran out eventual winners in an intriguing Thursday night game, but even though the Vikings defence is back to where it was earlier in the season, they couldn’t stop the first team to record double digit wins from getting their eleventh. There are two teams that could join them this week, but whilst the Raiders and Patriots stand a good chance of getting their tenth wins, injuries to Derek Carr and Rob Gronkowski could be causing differing degrees of anxiety to fans. Derek Carr came back in the game to play with his nastily injured finger, it is amazing what adrenaline will do for you, but it is possible it might affect his play. More worrying for the Patriots though will be the loss of Gronkowski for the rest of the season after having back surgery this week. You would back the Patriots staff to be able to adjust to this loss, but it is a big loss as Gronkowski is a real difference maker and is a favourite target of Brady as well as being the best tight end in the league.

No team is unaffected by injury at this time of year, but it is a question of whether you have picked up a critical injury and how strong you are at that position in the first place. The Seattle Seahawks offensive line has not been good all season, but in recent weeks they had improved enough when combined with Russel Wilson getting healthy to make the Seahawks look frightening again. However, they picked up more injuries last week and the Seahawks could only register five points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They are still very much in control of the AFC West, which is very much going through a down season this year, but they will have their eyes on bigger prizes and I will be curious to see how well their offence goes this week against a Panthers team who have been more competitive in recent weeks, even if the results don’t necessarily reflect it.

It felt like a strange week of games to predict, there are a lot of teams whose performance is varying week to week, and when there are questions surrounding even the best of teams, it is beginning to feel that the Cowboys might be putting themselves on a level of their own as they keep grinding out wins.

I think the question of overtime could rear its head again this week with another game that did give us a winner last Sunday, but still went to the end of overtime. One of my picks is resting on whether this extra pick is enough to let the Jaguars cover, but given the previous results of teams coming off a full overtime period it is not beyond the realms of possibility that the Jaguars could pick up a win. I know that Americans are culturally obsessed with there not being draws, but if a full period of overtime is that much of a disadvantage to the participating teams the following week, I’m still not sure that in an era of concern over player well-being, that we are not better off just accepting that draws happen.

Let’s see what happens with the Chiefs and Broncos when they play today.

AAF: AJ Klein

04 Sunday Dec 2016

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So this week’s amateur adventures in film is based on a comment from Ross Tucker on his podcast this week that AJ Klein was one of the best backup linebackers in the NFL, that he doesn’t start because they have Thomas Davis, Luke Kuechly, and Shaq Thompson, but that he looks a lot like Kuechly when he’s out there and made a bunch of plays. I thought I would take a look for myself.

Now his stat are pretty good with five tackles, and a play that doesn’t seem to have been credited as a sack where he stopped a scrambling Derek Carr as he tried to make a first down by stopping him behind the line and forcing a fumble. This was a very nice play as Klein started the play by showing blitz, then dropped back into coverage before chasing Carr to the side line. However, as the game moved on there were a couple of big plays that Klein was involved with.

Very few linebackers are as good as Luke Kuechly when he is in full flight, but Klein certainly looked good for large parts of this game, dropping into coverage smoothly or attacking gaps against the run. However, whilst he was capable of running with the slot receivers or tight ends, he gave up several plays in this spot including a touchdown to Clive Walford in the fourth quarter. In fact the fourth quarter was a difficult period for Klein. He did not get his head around and so was only able to wave an arm as the ball from Carr went to Walford in the back of the end zone for aforementioned touchdown. However, Klein also gave up a fifteen yard facemask penalty when trying to disengage from a block by Michael Crabtree against a run play, and gave up a thirty-two yard pass play to Crabtree as he followed him down the field. Not only did the pass get completed, but Klein gave away a declined pass interference penalty that ensured the pass was effective regardless of whether the catch was made. A matchup of a linebacker against a receiver down field is always going to be advantageous to the receiver, so I am not going to be too critical of this play, but it was a bad moment.

It does however highlight one problem when you are going through film, which is you can’t know the call. You would frequently see the linebackers swapping round as the Raiders shifted, and you could see Klein follow his player out when he had plays, sometimes slowing down or breaking up a play with his closing speed such as when he reached running back Latavius Murray as he received the pass to break up the completion or again later in the game when he tackled Murray for a loss. He was also unafraid to attack the hole or take on blockers, but the Raiders line is a very large group of men and I wouldn’t exactly say he won his battles with Gabe Jackson. That said, when a team only gives up fifty-six yards on thirty-one attempts, then your run defence is doing something right and whilst he wasn’t slipping off blockers easily, nor was he getting pancaked and when you’re taking on three hundred pound plus linemen that is not to be sneezed at.

As ever, I feel a little under qualified for grand pronouncements on players, but it was really interesting watching AJ Klein play and he certainly seemed to move in space well when dropping into zone, which he did a lot. It may not look to me that he diagnosed plays as fast as the man he was replacing, but that’s an unfair comparison for many a linebacker in the league and I did think he looked good for parts of this game, even if did give up some key plays. However, he kept on coming and I’ll be interested to see how the Panthers get on against the Seahawks in tonight’s game.

Thanksgiving Roundup

27 Sunday Nov 2016

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So rather than trying to cover all three games fully I’ll go through the points that leapt out at me over the course of the three Thanksgiving games.

Detriot Lions 16
Minnesota Vikings 13

This was a close game, but throughout it seemed to me that the Lions were moving the ball more consistently on offensive even if they did fall behind in the fourth quarter again. It’s getting to be a feature of the Lions’ season, but once again they managed to come from behind to win.

That said, the Vikings defence is looking back to something like its form from the start of the season, but the offence is still struggling. The loss of receiver Stefon Diggs hurt the Vikings, although it is nice to see Cordarrelle Patterson more on offence, but they still don’t have a running game they can rely on yet and the offensive line is likely going to remain a weakness. I will be curious to see what they do at the end of year in terms of both the line and quarterback, but I expect them to be competitive at least for their remaining games.

The Lions have done enough to lead their division in a down year for the Packers and a very troubled one for the Vikings. The offence continues to get points when they need one, but they are hampered by the defence. I can see them getting into the playoffs, but I think they will struggle against teams like the Seahawks and Cowboys. Still, it seems that everyone, including myself, has had to reassess Matthew Stafford in the wake of his late game heroics this year.

Dallas Cowboys 31
Washington 26

The score was a lot closer than the game was thanks to a late surge by Washington in the fourth quarter, but in truth the Giants were able to dominate this game throughout.

That said, there was a period where the Washington defence was doing a credible job of bottling up Ezekiel Elliott, but the problem is that the Cowboys will not be deterred and with the offensive line they have, you may be able to slow Elliott down but it already seems that he will eventually have his way. The Cowboys ran for one hundred and sixty-three yards in this game, with Elliot just shy of one hundred yards on only twenty carries. That kind of number should help him be fresher going into the end of the season, and Dak Prescott picked up a further thirty-nine yards on the ground. The rookie quarterback’s numbers don’t look spectacular, but he continued to drive the Cowboys efficiently and they have the best record in the NFL for a reason.

Washington’s defensive line did looked okay for large parts of this game, but the offence seemed to struggle for sections of this game to keep drives going.  They lost despite dominating time of possession and total yards in this game, but it should be noted that Dustin Hopkins only made two of his four field goals. It is too easy to say that if he had made them that Washington would have won the game, but it would surely have affected the flow of the game and should not be discounted. There is no shame in going to the team with the best record in the league and losing, but Washington will need to get back to winning ways if they want to stay in contention for the playoffs. Still with the way the offence is playing they stand a fighting chance.

Indianapolis Colts 7
Pittsburgh Steelers

This was a very straight forward game for the Steelers, which always looked likely to be the case once Andrew Luck went into the concussion protocol.

The Steelers did not suffer a dip against opposition they should beat as is sometimes the case, and it was very much the Steeler’s triplet show with Le’Veon Bell running for one hundred and twenty yards with a touchdown, and Antonio Brown catching three touchdowns with just under one hundred yards. Ben Roethlisberger may have only thrown for two hundred and twenty-one yards, but with three touchdowns and a seventy percent completion rate I’m sure he will be okay with the performance. Their defence also put in a good shift, and they will be hopeful of keeping pace with the Ravens in the race for the AFC North.

The Colts could get very little going, and their solitary touchdown owes much to a fake punt play that went for thirty-five yards when punter Pat McAfee completed his pass to Erik Swoope. Although the Colts recorded ninety-one yards from twenty-one rush attempts, this masks Frank Gore’s fifteen carries that yielded only twenty-eight yards. In a game with a career backup starting, the Colts needed more help from their run game to balance their offence and didn’t get it. I didn’t think that Scott Tolzien looked terrible, but he threw several balls high as well as two interceptions chasing a game that the Colts were never really in. I’m sure everyone in Indianapolis will be keeping their fingers crossed that Andrew Luck can make a quick return.

 

Overall we had two competitive games, and one complete blowout, but I enjoyed all three, even if I didn’t spend all day watching them with a huge meal to keep me going.

Week Twelve Picks

27 Sunday Nov 2016

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For the first time this season Dan has taken a lead going into week twelve, so I will have to see if I can catch up with him

Gee:      Week 11   8-6                     Overall   73-88
Dan:       Week 11   9-5                     Overall   74-87

Cardinals @ Falcons (-4.5)

The Cardinals are coming off a loss to the Vikings, and are on the road in Atlanta against an up and down but rested Falcons team. The Falcons offence has struggled a little bit with injuries and so has slipped to number two in the league by DVOA, but I think they have more than enough to beat a Cardinals team that are just not right this year. The defence of the Cardinals gives me some pause over this line, but things are just not quite there for them this year and I think the Falcons get back on track at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Jaguars @ Bills (-6.5)

I think that the Bills will win this game, but I am trying to work out by how much. Most of their wins this season have been by big margins, but they squeaked past the Bengals last week. It appears that LeSean McCoy will play this week despite thumb surgery, but I think I’m going to back the Jaguars to cover this line on the road, which could be a huge mistake!

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Titans @ Bears (+3.5)

There are too many injuries in Chicago for the Bears to make a strong finish to the season, particularly with Matt Barkley starting at quarterback. It might make fans of the Titans nervous as they seemingly lose every time I back their team, but I can only see this game going one way.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Bengals @ Ravens (-4.5)

The Bengals could cover this line as they’ve kept most games close this season, but the loss of both AJ Green and Giovani Bernard is likely the death knell for the offence turning things round this year. The Ravens are not great on offence, but they have once again built a tough defence and I think they will grind this one out at home. As ever when picking against the Bengals, I would be delighted to be proved wrong.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Giants @ Browns (+7.5)

I said on the podcast that the Browns would not lose all their remaining games, and I still think that is more likely than not, but I wouldn’t know when to pick them winning and I shan’t be doing so against a Giants team that seemingly seems to be finding their way on defence to complement an offence that keeps doing enough to win.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Rams @ Saints (-6.5)

So in shock news, a rookie quarterback who doesn’t start until week eleven looks like a rookie quarterback when he finally plays. There is more wrong with the LA Rams’ offence than the quarterback, but at least Todd Gurley broke some longer runs last week. However, I was pretty impressed the with Saint’s defensive line in last week’s eventually close loss to the Panthers. The Rams defence has been playing really well this season, but I think the Saint’s run out winners in this one at home. The points however make me really nervous, but in the end I’m backing the Saints to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

49ers @ Dolphins (-7.5)

The Dolphins seem to have come together over the last few weeks, but their identity on offence is being challenged with problems with the injuries to their line. I like the Dolphins to find a way to win, but the points do give me pause, however when it comes down to making this pick I am still not getting enough points to make me back the 49ers on the road.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Chargers @ Texans (-1.5)

I thought Brock Osweiler looked better than I was expecting against the Raiders last week, but he is still on the wrong page with his receivers too often. The Texans defence is looking very good, but I think that Philip Rivers is finding a way with his Chargers team and I believe their respective records would be very different if they swapped divisions.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Seahawks @ Buccaneers (+5.5)

The Seahawks are playing really well, but this is a lot of points. However, with their defence getting back to its best, and Russel Wilson getting healthy enough to find his mobility again I think they will beat an improving Buccaneers team. I thought that Dirk Koetter was struggling at the start of the season, but they do seem to have settled down and beat the Chiefs in Kansas City last week, which is no mean feat. That said, I I’m still backing the Seahawks to cover these points as they round into their typical end of season form.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Panthers @ Raiders (-3.5)

The Panthers got a win against the Saints, but the offence sputtered in the run gain and they were functioning off the back of some key plays by Cam Newton and their defence finding its feet. The loss of Luke Kuechly will really hurt their defence though, and the Raiders have the offensive line to cope with their improving pass rush. I like the Raiders to cover this one despite the short week.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Patriots @ Jets (+7.5)

The Patriots struggled a little against the 49ers, but still nearly beat them by the fourteen points they needed to cover. I can’t see them letting up in a divisional game, and with all that has gone wrong for the Jets this season I see this going one way.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Chiefs @ Broncos (-3.5)

The last two games give me real pause, particularly in this one with the Broncos coming off a bye. I really like the Chiefs, but it looks as if the Broncos defence will be that much healthier after the bye and given the Chiefs recent struggles on offence and the always difficult trip to Denver I think the Chiefs will struggle. So despite the extra half point making me nervous I’m going to back the Broncos to cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Packers @ Eagles (-3.5)

The Packers have really struggled this season and in particular over the last couple of weeks. I’m not sure the Eagles have the receivers to hurt the Packers troubled secondary, but I like their defence and I have more faith in them right this second so I am reluctantly backing the Eagles despite them needing to win by four to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Being Thankfull

24 Thursday Nov 2016

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Well 2016 has been an eventful year to say the least, and on this American holiday of Thanksgiving I thought I’d try to find a few things to be thankful for the NFL.

The obvious place to start given the turmoil of this year is the distraction that sport provides. I’ve written before that I don’t see getting away from the world as a bad thing. Sport gives us an escape, whilst at times teaching us things that are useful in life, particularly when participating.

Football is a sport that relies heavily on team work, cooperation, and personal responsibility as if you stop playing within your team’s system then you are going to hurt your team. It’s not a bad reminder that personal responsibility and social solutions are not mutually exclusive, despite what some politicians on both the right and left would say.

The Bengals are having a tough year, and the search for an end to the league’s longest playoff win drought doesn’t look to be stopping this season, but I’m still grateful for the sight of Geno Atkins causing trouble to offences, one of the best colour rush uninforms of the year, and the painful reminder that nothing in the NFL is guaranteed.

For all the NFLUK’s marketing of Jay Ajayi as London’s Jay Ajayi, I’m enjoying Dan having a player to hang his hat on, and whilst I was worried that Adam Gase could struggle despite being an excellent coach given the roster he had been handed, with a chance of making the playoffs and at least being relevant he looks to be turning things round. Although perhaps I should have let Dan play the funeral march in an attempt to revive the Bengals’ season.

It hasn’t happened yet, but I am incredibly thankful that this year’s playoff games won’t be blacked out on Gamepass as it will make the logistics of covering and watching all the games so much easier.

I’m thankful that despite having a terrible season of picking games, I’m on a game behind Dan and on yet another short week I shall turn to tonight’s games, which I am really looking forward to!

Vikings @ Lions (-2.5)

The Vikings are coming off a their first win in five games, as they travel to Detroit to play the Lions in a game that will put one team at the top of the NFC North. The Cardinals are a struggling team right now, but a win is a win as far as the Vikings are concerned. However, we perhaps shouldn’t get carried away as the Vikings had a one hundred yard interception return for a touchdown and a one hundred and four yard kickoff return and still only won by six points. The defence looked more like itself, but still gave up twenty-four points, whilst the offence still looks to be struggling. The Lions meanwhile managed to be behind in the fourth quarter again, this time to the awful Jaguars, but did enough to win the game. There can’t have been too many time that the Lions were playing for the division lead in their tradition Thanksgiving game, but I fancy them to do enough at home against the Vikings.

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

Washington @ Cowboys (-7.5)

The Cowboys are having a phenomenal season and look to be amongst the elite of the NFC, but Washington are no slouches and so this seems like a surprisingly large line. I would expect the Cowboys to win, and I’m not saying they can’t cover this line, but with Washington’s offence playing as well as it is at the moment, I think they are more likely to cover this line than not, even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Washington

Steelers @ Colts (+7.5)

I am nervous about this line as the Colts are at home and the Steelers didn’t exactly blow out the Browns in their last game. However, whilst I might have been tempted had Andrew Luck been fit, the fact that Scott Tolzein is the starting quarterback with Luck in concussion protocol pushes me to pick the Steelers. Their offence could absolutely find its way again as it still has a terrifying array of talent as well as playing in the dome tonight, but the Steelers need to keep the pressure on in the AFC North.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Saints @ Panthers

20 Sunday Nov 2016

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Carolina Panthers 23
New Orleans Saints 20

This was as good a Thursday night game as we have had in a while in that what started off as a very one sided game ended up with an exciting finish thanks to a late surge by the Saints and the Panthers struggling towards the end of the game.

The Panthers offence was up and down for most of the game as they struggled to make any headway in the run game and so were often forced to pass the ball with mixed success. The run game was particularly bad as Cam Newton, Jonathan Steward, and Ted Ginn all had runs of ten yards or more, and yet the Panthers managed a paltry fifty yards in total. Jonathan Stewart’s eighteen carries for thirty-one yards looks particularly anaemic, although these numbers will have been hurt by a dangerous attempt to run out the clock that nearly cost the Panthers the game in the fourth quarter. Cam Newton managed not to turn the ball over, but he completed less that fifty percent of his passes, but did manage to connect up with Ted Ginn for a forty yard touchdown thanks to a great catch at the back of the end zone at the end of the second quarter. This game could have been won a lot more easily if the Panthers had kept playing offence into the fourth quarter, but the offensive line struggled a lot throughout the game and the attempts to run out the clock just did not work.

The Saints defence played better than I was expecting, and whilst I knew it had taken some steps forward since the start of the season, I was not expecting them to cause as many problems for the Panthers as they did. The real star of the show was the Saints front seven who effectively shut down the Panthers running game, as well as getting two sacks and seven quarterback hits. In fact they hurried Newton several times, with Dannell Ellerbe coming up with four tackles, a sack, and two quarterback hits. The Panthers’ struggles in the passing game were as much to do with Cam Newton’s accuracy as coverage, but the pressure he was under was surely a factor and re-enforces the old maxim that good coverage helps create pass rush, and pass rush helps create good coverage.

The Saints offence had a harder time scoring than the Panthers for much of the game, but they actually out-gained the Panthers by nearly one hundred and fifty yards. That said, part of that seemed to be that their running game improved when Mark Ingram went out of the game in the third quarter and Tim Hightower came into the game. Hightower amassed sixty-nine yards on just twelve carries including a long of twenty-seven yards. The Panthers were able to pressure Drew Brees who was sacked three times and hit a further four times, but he threw for over two hundred and fifty yards and two touchdowns with only one interceptions. Rookie receiver Michael Thomas led the team with five catches for sixty-eight yards, but Brees had nine different players catch balls as he distributed the ball with characteristic skill, but in the end it wasn’t enough.

The Panthers defence has been better since the bye, the front seven coming back to form as their very young secondary came together. They struggled later in this game, with 6ft 6 Brandon Coleman catching the Saints’ first touchdown over 5ft 9 Robert McClain with Leonard Johnson having gone out of the game. However, the real worry for the Panthers will be Luke Kuechly who left the game sobbing in the fourth quarter and who is once more in the concussion protocol. Their leading tackler missed three games last season to a concussion, and whilst Friday’s Instagram picture with a smiling Kuechly may give hope to some, you have to be worry about how much more football he should play. As fantastic a player as Kuechly is, and I have been very bullish on my praise in the past, the troublesome nature of head injuries in football and the position he plays means it may be time for him to seriously consider his career.

This was a tight game that should have been a highlight of the Thursday night schedule, but with two players now in the concussion protocol the gloss has come off the game. As much as I love football, we cannot and should not ignore what can happen to players, and I just hope that both players make a full recovery and listen to their doctors.