For both Dan and I last week was a good one for picks and a bad one for how our teams actually played. As frustrated as Dan was by the close loss to the Lions, I think I win the crappiest team performance of the week after the debacle of the Bengals loss, and a historically bad performance by Andy Dalton. I’m not sure writing a picks column is the best way to cleanse that loss from my system, but I’ll give it a try and hope that I can keep the pressure on Dan by continuing to cut into his lead.

Gee:     Week 10   9-4              Overall   75-72
Dan:     Week 10   8-5              Overall   77-70

Bills @ Dolphins (-5.5)

This is a matchup of two very similar teams, both of which have really good defences, questions on offence, a 5-4 record, and both lost by four points on Sunday to quality teams.

The Bills issues on offence are at quarterback, and whilst that has stabilised somewhat since Kyle Orton became the starter, he is an average quarterback that is not going to win you games on his own. The Dolphins have also had questions at quarterback, but in recent weeks Ryan Tannehill has looked to have made progress and was going against the top ranked defence in the league last week.

The problem is that the Dolphins lost their left tackle Branden Albert for the year with ACL & MCL tears, I can speak from recent experience about what problems that can cause you, and that’s before we consider the defence that’s coming to town. I think this will be a close game, and whilst I don’t feel great sticking my neck out against what I assume will be a pick of Dolphins by Dan, I’m backing the Bills to stay within five in this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Falcons @ Panthers (-1.5)

This game feels like a total crap shoot to me. The Falcons picked up their third win of the season against a horrible Buccaneers team whilst the Panthers slid to a 3-6-1 record with a big loss to the Eagles on Monday night. Thanks to the putrid nature of the NFC South this year, three wins still has you in the race for the division title, but I can’t see either of these teams as they are currently performing making a serious challenge. I am not sure how to judge the rankings at Football Outsiders as I can’t quantify how the huge win the Falcons had over the Buccaneers earlier in the year affects their respective standing, but the Falcons have more weapons and a better quarterback as they are currently playing, and with the Panthers defence struggling I’m reluctantly backing a second road underdog. This can’t end well.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Vikings @ Bears (-3.5)

Quietly the Vikings have got themselves four wins whilst the Bears have been falling apart over the last few weeks.

The Bears have given up over fifty points in their last two games and their only win against a team with a winning record is their week 2 game against the 49ers. We knew the defence was not going to be great, but it has been horrendous and it is one thing to get beat on talent, but when Jordy Nelson is dancing uncovered behind your safeties, you have real issues of coaching and scheme. What make this even worse is that the offence, which has talent enough at the skill position to match up with anybody, is also underperforming.

The Vikings have their issues, but Teddy Bridgewater managed not to turn the ball over against Washington, whilst throwing for 268 yards and a touchdown, and their defence is quietly ranked tenth in the league by DVOA. I’m worried that the Bears home losing streak has to end at some point, but I don’t see why they are getting the benefit of the doubt in points this week, I’ve seen nothing that makes me thing they’ve earned it this season.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Bengals @ Saints (-6.5)

This line is perfectly placed to make me waver, although I’m not sure how much of that is due to my current relationship with the Bengals.

The Saints stand atop the wretched NFC South division with their 4-5 record, and are coming off a narrow overtime loss to the 49ers. They have been playing well below the standards many expected, with the defence taking a step back from last year’s improved performance and perhaps more surprisingly, the offence also does not look quite right. In the 49ers game Drew Brees threw another strange interception as well as giving up a strip sack at the end of the game so the 49ers could kick the winning field goal. In fairness, on another day they could have won the game at the end of the fourth quarter as you rarely see a flag for a push off on the last play Hail Mary, but despite what Jimmy Graham claimed, the call was correct according to the rules.

On the other side of this game, I’m worried. The Bengals defence is having problems with the front seven, particularly in the run game, and the least said about Andy Dalton’s historically bad game the better. I’m hoping they will bounce back with some fire against the Saints, but New Orleans is not an easy place to play. I think the Saints will win, but I’m not ready to say the Bengals are going to get blown out again. This could be a pick based completely on hope, but I’m going with the Bengals to at least keep this game competitive.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Texans @ Browns (-3.5)

The Texans are coming off a bye and are starting Ryan Mallet in this game. The problem with this team has been the offence and Ryan Fitzpatrick has been holding them back, but I’m not sure that Mallet is nailed on to be the solution, particularly given the Arian Foster is currently listed as questionable with a groin injury. The Browns defence has not been playing as well as I expected of them, but despite the extra week to prepare, I’m not sure how successful you are going to be starting an inexperienced career backup in an away game. I think the Cleveland fans are going to be loud as they enjoy being in first place in the AFC North!

If this game was taking place before the Alex Mack injury, I would have no doubt in picking the Browns, but I suspect the line would be different. Since he has gone down, the Browns’ offence has not looked the same with the running game struggling, and the strong showing in last week’s game is somewhat undermined by the Bengals being dead last in rush defence by DVOA. I could regret this as I never like to pick against JJ Watt, but I’ll back the Browns in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Broncos @ Rams (+9.5)

The Rams did better in their loss last week against the Cardinals than the 14-31 score line might make you think. The talented defensive front seems to be finding its feet over the last couple of weeks and followed up their eight sack showing against the 49ers with another three sacks against the Cardinals. In fact it was only a couple of defensive touchdowns for the Cardinals late in the fourth quarter that finally finished off the Rams. The problem is that they just don’t have enough on offence to win and it’s taken special teams heroics or horrible opposition play for them to win.

This is not a week that they are going to get enough of those things to win. Despite their two losses, the Broncos remain the class team of the NFL and although they struggled at first against the Raiders, they soon managed to reassert their dominance to gain a big victory. If you get a chance, take a look at Brock Osweiler’s reaction to Peyton Manning going back in when he through he was. Otherwise, this should be another win for the Broncos and I expect them to cover the spread as well.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Seahawks @ Chiefs (-0.5)

The Chiefs did it again last week, finding ways to manufacture points against a Bills defence that is currently ranked fourth in defence by DVOA. They ran the ball well enough with Jamaal Charles demonstrating why he went early in so many fantasy drafts, and even Alex Smith got in on the act with a rushing touchdown to go with his 177 yards and no interceptions. They are also solid on defence, but the rush defence ranking of twenty-first by DOVA does worry me in this game.

The Seahawks have managed to get back on track with three straight wins, but they have come against the Panthers, Raiders, and Giants, so it might not be time to get too excited yet. They managed an incredible 350 yards of rushing against the Giants, but they don’t have a lot of options in the passing game and Russell Wilson threw two interceptions to go with him hundred yards rushing and touchdown. The defence are just not what they were last year, which is probably not surprising given their outstanding level of play last season, but it was still surprising to see a rookie receiver get behind Richard Sherman.

I think this should be a good game, but I think the Chiefs solid brand of football will win out in a noisy Arrowhead Stadium.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

49ers @ Giants (+4.5)

The Giants are in trouble, and when defensive players are plain avoiding even trying to make a tackle then you know it is bad. They are not exactly terrible, but are ranked either eighteenth or twentieth by DVOA in all three phases of the game, and such mediocrity is not turning into wins. The one real bright spot is rookie receiver Odell Beckham who has shown real potential, as show when he got behind Richard Sherman with a lovely move last week.

The 49ers managed to get the win last week, reverting back to type in offence by focussing on the run. Between the difficulties they’ve had moving the ball on offence, and the injuries on defence, it has been a tough season for the 49ers but they’re still in the hunt for a playoff spot and I think that they will help that quest despite the long trip across the country this week.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Buccaneers @ Washington (-6.5)

This is not a good game. The Buccaneers have been every bit as woeful as their 1-8 record would suggest, whilst Washington have not exactly inspired many people either. I was surprised that RG3 started in their week 9 loss against the Vikings given they had a bye the following, but he should be healthier now and whilst I’m not convinced by the, I think they will win this game. The points do make pause, but I’m not backing the Buccaneers to do much of anything right now.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Raiders @ Chargers (-10.5)

After a strong start that included conversations about Phillip Rivers being in contention for MVP, the Chargers have fallen off in recent weeks as injuring started to catch up with them. They have been on a bye, but there are only so many centres you can lose before it affects your offence and their rush offence is currently ranked twenty-eight in the league by DVOA. I expect them to bounce back with a win this week, but I don’t see them at this point putting up a huge win over the Raiders.

There are only so many things that you can write about a team that has lost nine games straight this season. There are a few promising young players, but the offseason signing of veterans to put this team over the top has clearly not worked, and they would have been better off to follow the Jaguars’ lead in building through youth as at least you have hope for the future. They haven’t put themselves in cap purgatory with these signings, but it is going to be a long time before the Raiders get back to consistent winning and there are too many players getting game time now that won’t be able to help them when they do start winning.. That said, I think they will keep it close enough to cover in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Lions @ Cardinals (-1.5)

I feel so sorry for Carson Palmer, this is best team he’s played on since the last time he injured his ACL with the Bengals. They continue to play excellent defence and are doing well enough to win on offence with rookie receiver John Brown seeming to make a highlight play catch late in the game each week. Speaking of highlights, we know Patrick Peterson is good, but his tipped interception that he returned for a touchdown was a spectacular play that helped put the game away for the Cardinals and I struggle to believe that was the first interception he’s returned for a touchdown.

The Lions have continued their turnaround under Jim Caldwell, they still lead the league by defensive DVOA and now have Calvin Johnson back from injury. There are still questions about Matthew Stafford’s play, but the side arm throw he used to deliver the game winning touchdown pass to Theo Riddick was the only way that he could get the ball there.

I think the Cardinals have been brilliantly coached this season, and I think they will continue to be good, but this is a big test for Drew Stanton and I think I’d rather be on the side of Mattew Stafford and Calvin Johnsons in this game given how good both defences are, although I’m not happy about going against the Cardinals.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Eagles @ Packers (-5.5)

The Packers battered the Bears at Lambeau Field last week, seemingly scoring at will whilst Clay Matthews played very well spending time at middle linebacker in early downs before reverting back to his more familiar pass rusher role on third down. Time will tell if this is an adjustment that can help solidify the defence enough to help them get back to the Super Bowl, but it looked like a fair start.

The Eagles also are coming off a good win, having easily taken care of the Panthers on Monday night football. They are still having problems with their running game, but the pass game continued to work with Mark Sanchez throwing for a very respectable three hundred yards and two touchdowns in his first start as an Eagle. Add to that a defence that is ranked sixth in the league by DVOA and special teams that leads the league, and you can see why the Eagles are winning games.

I think this is going to be one of the games of the week and I’m surprised that the packers are giving so many points. I think either side can win, but I don’t think that Eagles are going to lose by this much.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Patriots @ Colts (-2.5)

This should be another really good game, with both teams having a strong season.

The Colts season has been driven but Andrew Luck’s excellent play and a defence that has done enough for them to win games. They are still struggling with their running game but when you have a quarterback of Luck’s ability, you can make up for that.

The Patriots has a wobble at the start of the season, which suckered a lot of people into thinking the Brady-Belichick era was over. We are still closer to that being the case than not, but they again look like the team that will win at least ten games and their division.

This should be a close game, but I have more faith in Belichick’s ability to game plan a defence for the Colts than that they can stop Gronkowski, which may seem counterintuitive given that the Colts actually rank higher by defensive DVOA than the Patriots, but I think the Patriots stats are suffering from their early blowout loss to the Chiefs and frankly I’m fed up of being beaten by them.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Steelers @ Titans (+5.5)

Is there any team that has been more up and down the Steelers this season? They followed up strong wins against the Colts and Ravens by giving the perennially rebuilding Jets a second win for the season, and previously gave the woeful Buccaneers their only win of the year. However, the Titans are awful and Dick LeBeau has an amazing record against rookie quarterbacks, which does no bode well for the Titans’ sixth round pick Zack Mettenberger. I’m a little worried by the points just because of the erratic nature of the Steelers’ performance, but I’d need to be getting a lot more before I picked the Titans.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Considering the quality of games and the excitement surrounding the NFL at the moment, not to mention finally gaining a game on Dan, this is a really bad week to be short on time for writing. I won’t bore you with the details, but I will be trying a different format this week to keep the picks going, trying to hit key points from last week and the season so far without double checking various stats and rankings. Knowing my luck, I’ll do better picking this week.

Gee:     Week 9   7-6               Overall   66-68
Dan:     Week 9   6-7               Overall   69-65

Browns @ Bengals (-6.5)

So the Browns are doing okay this season, not in the way I was expecting but they remain competitive in a division where everyone has a winning record. The Bengals seem to be surviving their slump and turning it around, but the performance of Andy Dalton is still a little worrying. I think the Bengals will win this game, but the points are too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:       Browns
Dan’s Pick:       Browns

Falcons @ Buccaneers (+0.5)

The Falcons are ravaged by injury, but flew out of the gates to start the Wembley game yet couldn’t hold on against the Lions and lost another one. The Buccaneers covered against the Browns, and did some things themselves, but there seems to be such disarray with this team. I don’t particularly like either one of them, but at least the Falcons have a quality quarterback with some weapons and so in a pick the winner spread, I’m going for the Falcons.

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:       Falcons

Chiefs @ Bills (+1.5)

This should be a really good game, which you might have questioned before the start of the season, but both teams are playing well. The Bills have a tremendous defence and Kyle Orton seems to be providing enough stability at quarterback that they remain competitive in the AFC East. The Chiefs are also playing solid football, getting themselves a 5-3 record whilst staying in every game bar the now inexplicable loss to the Titans in week one. I’m really torn on this game, I’m leaning towards the Chiefs as I think they’ve been more consistent, but that could be EJ Manuel’s performance from earlier in the season poisoning my trust in the Bills.

Gee’s Pick:       Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:       Chiefs

Cowboys @ Jaguars (+7.5)

The Cowboys excellent start of the season seems to be stuttering, and as worrying as the Tony Romo back injury is, I’m also concerned that two weeks in a row their much praised offensive line has struggled to protect their quarterback. The Jaguars are playing pretty well on defence, but are just too short on talent, to win. That said, I have a feeling that the Cowboys will struggle and this will be a close game. Either that or DeMarco Murray is about to get right back on track after finally having his record breaking streak of one hundred yard games to start the season broken.

Gee’s Pick:       Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

Dolphins @ Lions (-2.5)

The Dolphins had one of the performances of the week on Sunday in their 37-0 beating of the Chargers. They have a terrific defence, and they finally seem to be getting the best out of Ryan Tannehill, which has kept them part of the conversation in a competitive AFC East division. The Lions are heading up their division, playing excellent defence but they’re struggling on offence with some key injuries. I’m really torn on this game as well, for some reason I still don’t trust the Dolphins fully, but I’m not sure what I’m getting with the Lions either and I don’t feel I can go against a team that’s just won so convincingly.

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Dolphins

Titans @ Ravens (-9.5)

The Ravens were playing so consistently, but have wobbled the last couple of weeks having lost Jimmy Smith, which really seems to have caused problems in their secondary, in fact so much trouble that they have just released two cornerbacks. The Titans on the other hand have been an incredibly non-descript team that seem lacking in talent and the best performance by one of their players on Sunday was the linebacker they just sent to the Patriots. The only thing that is making me think about this game is the spread, but I haven’t seen enough from the Titans’ offence that makes me think that they can exploit these problems and I don’t think it is a coincidence that the Ravens’ last two losses were on the road, I’m betting on them to bounce back. Although not particularly confidently.

Gee’s Pick:       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Titans

49ers @ Saints (-4.5)

The 49ers are having a troubled season, injured on defence and misfiring on offence, with an o-line whose play has slipped and problems getting the ball in the end zone. They are facing a Saints team who traditionally play well at home, and who have put together two wins in a row as they recover from a rocky start to the season. It appears that Drew Brees has found a rhythm and I think this is the week the Saints finally get themselves a winning record.

Gee’s Pick:       Saints
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

Steelers @ Jets (+4.5)

The Steelers have been good for two weeks in a row, with Ben Roethlisberger throwing six touchdowns in each of them. They still have some weaknesses on defence, but James Harrison has started rolling, a couple of weeks after coming out of retirement and was terrifying against the Ravens last week. The Jets seem to be imploding and I do not understand what benefit they are getting from starting Michael Vick over Geno Smith, frankly they would be better finding out for sure if Smith can turn it round and if not, getting the better pick. They’re not getting into the playoffs from their current position.

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

Broncos @ Raiders (+11.5)

The Broncos had a horrible game against the Patriots, and the narratives about Manning in the cold and losing to Brady will resurface, but I still think they are the most rounded team in the league and I think they will bounce back in this game. The Raiders finally have a pair of players for their fans to get excited about in the rookies David Carr and Khalil Mack, but haven’t been able to turn any of their close losses into wins. Sadly I don’t think they will be keeping this one close, but I don’t see them going winless all year.

Gee’s Pick:       Broncos
Dan’s Pick:       Broncos

Rams @ Cardinals (-7.5)

The Cardinals keep rolling with great defence and one of the best coaching jobs done by a staff of any team. The injuries kept piling up, but so do the wins and I don’t think this game will be an exception. The Rams got another win, with their much vaunted front seven looking more like themselves last week as they more than doubled their sack total for the year in one game. However, their offence struggled without Jake Long and I think the Cardinals will be a much sterner test than the struggling 49ers.

Gee’s Pick:       Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Giants @ Seahawks (-9.5)

The Seahawks have struggled to live up to their Super Bowl winning play of last year, but have righted the ship in the last couple of weeks against the Panthers and the Raiders. Neither of these have been big wins but I think that could be about to change, the Giants were pretty awful against the Colts last week, and have been struggling for large parts of the season, and Seattle is not the place to put that right.

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Giants

Bears @ Packers (-7.5)

The Bears are also imploding, but not where I thought they would. The offence has failed to continue the progress from last year, with a lot of the blame surely falling on Jay Cutler who has thrown too many interceptions. The Packers had a wobble to start the season, but since Rodgers told Packers fans to relax, they’ve gone 5-1 and although I was overly bullish about them travelling to New Orleans, I don’t think they are going to have any such problems at home this week.

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:       Packers

Panthers @ Eagles (-6.5)

The Panthers haven’t been able to get both the offence and defence to play well at the same time this season, with Cam Newton’s play being particularly worrying over the last couple of weeks. The Eagles have been a bit up and down this season, particularly as the o-line has had some injuries. They just lost Nick Foles to a broken collar bone and possibly more worryingly they’ve lost linebacker Demeco Ryans for the season. We’ll now get to see how well Mark Sanchez can play for an offensive minded coach, and I’m backing them more than the troubled Panthers.

Gee’s Pick:       Eagles
Dan’s Pick:       Eagles

If week eight taught us anything, it is that trying to predict NFL results is a mug’s game. I fell another game behind Dan last week, and this week’s lines look horrible. There seem to be three kinds of losses that I have each week: there’s the out by half a point to a point that I can live with, the surprise result that no one saw coming, and the frustrating second guess or I should have seen that coming. See if you can see which teams handed me what kind of loss last week.

Last week by this point of the intro I had picked three games, I don’t have any picked right now…

Gee:      Week 8   7-8                       Overall   59-62
Dan:      Week 8   8-7                       Overall   63-58

Saints @ Panthers (+2.5)

Sometimes when you are wrong, it’s good to be very wrong as it forces you to readjust. It appears that I was very wrong on the Saints last week, but I’m still undecided about them. They had taken care of the Bucs in Week Six, had a bye and got healthier, then only narrowly lost to the Lions. The problem is that they were leading the Lions game up until there was 01:54 left in the fourth quarter, when the Lions scored the last of their fourteen unanswered points to win the game. They had no such problems against the Packers, hanging with them in the first half and pulling away in the third quarter. The offence looked better with Drew Brees playing more like how we would expect, the rookie receiver Brandin Cooks picking up nearly one hundred yards, and Jimmy Graham beginning to look more like himself as he comes back from a shoulder problem. Meanwhile, the defence did enough, although Aaron Rodgers appeared limited by his hamstring problem and you can’t blame him for the way Eddie Lacy’s missed catch popped up for an interception. This team is also one that does not travel well so I don’t know what to make of them this week.

The Panthers lost an ugly game against the Seahawks. Cam Newton managed to throw an interception and lose a fumble, whilst trying to make something happen. The defence managed to look pretty good against a Seahawks unit that is top ten and leads the league in rush offence by DVOA. I have been confused by the Panthers all season, they have been up and down and I have struggled to make sense of who they are as a team. It was reasonable to expect a step back given their salary cap woes and the players they lost, but this means that I really don’t know what to expect of them in any given week. They don’t seem to be able to put together good performances on both sides of the ball at the same time. I really thought they were there for the taking against the Bengals.

I’m worried about the points given that the Saints don’t travel well, and I’m not convinced by either team, but I’m leaning towards the Saints as I feel like I have a better idea of who they can be if thing start to come together. This is a real shot in the dark, but here goes.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Jaguars @ Bengals (-11.5)

The Bengals did enough to get their proper name back last week, although I think they were a little lucky to get the win given that I don’t think there was enough of push by Steve Smith to warrant his touchdown being called back. It will be interesting to see the offence once AJ Green gets back as Mohamed Sanu had another great game and the pair of them could really open the offence out again. The pass defence is very solid, although the rush defence is currently last in the league by DVOA. Still, I feel pretty confident coming into this week against the Jaguars at home. I’m just not sure I’m that confident.

Having got their first win in week seven, the Jaguars came back down with a bump against the Dolphins. Unfortunately Blake Bortles not only threw another interception, but one that was returned eighty-one yards for a touchdown. This team continues to hang in there as their defence is doing okay, but they just don’t have enough talent to do more than compete. That said, I don’t see this game being a blow out as I don’t think the Bengals are healthy enough so I’m worriedly backing the Jaguars to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Buccaneers @ Browns (-6.5)

The Buccaneers are not good, and with the fire sale before the trade deadline the new management are trying to say it’s the previous regime’s players. Either way, I don’t see them doing well in Cleveland. The problem is that the Browns are struggling as well, the loss of Alex Mack really seems to have upset the line (which should not be surprising, I’ve seen myself what damage losing your starting centre can do to a team), so whilst I think they will win, the line makes me nervy. In the end though, the Bucs are ranked dead last in overall DVOA, and by a fair margin, whilst the Browns are solidly mid-table so whilst it’s another anxious pick, I’m going for the Browns.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Cardinals @ Cowboys (-4.5)

I don’t think it’s time to panic yet, but back injuries make me nervous and we don’t know what is going to happen with Tony Romo yet. More surprising to me is that the given the injury situation with Romo, and that they lost to Washington last week, I can’t see why they are giving so many points to the Cardinals. It is pretty amazing that DeMarco Murray has already run for over one thousand yard, and now has eight straight one hundred yard games to start the season. However, the o-line that has been talked about by some as the best in the league this season, couldn’t protect the quarterback last week against Washington, yet this week go against one of the most blitz heavy defences in the league. It could a very tough time for whoever starts at quarterback this week.

Bruce Arians and his staff are doing a great job this season. Having lost so many of the starters from last year’s stellar defence, you would be forgiven for thinking that the Cardinals might struggle, but somehow they are still top ten. They are getting by on offence, although I thought that the observation about their likely unsustainable good play on third down in Aaron Schatz’s Football Outsiders DVOA column was interesting. Still, whilst they may regress at some point, they have enough play makers and seem to be playing well home and away. This is one of the few games that I’m beginning to feel comfortable with this week, which means you should all back the Cowboys to bounce back, but I’m sticking with the Cardinals.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Jets @ Chiefs (-9.5)

Oh dear Geno. A stat line of two completions in eight attempts for five yards and three interceptions is something the like of which we will not see for quite some time. I wrote that I thought this would be a close game, but I underestimated the Bills’ defence, and for the first time I feel like the Jets really let the game get away from them. Sadly, I really don’t see that Michael Vick will be the solution as the new starter given that Geno Smith was pulled in the first quarter, giving Vick plenty of time to secure the starter role through good play. I don’t think an interception and three fumbles, which luckily only once was recovered by the Bills, was really enough to win him the job.

This week the Jets travel to the Chiefs and I think it could be a long day. The Chiefs are a very well coached side, that often win the line of scrimmage battle on both sides of the ball and have playmakers on offense. They took care of business against the Rams last week, and have another bad team this week and whilst the points are high, I think the Chiefs will win big for a second week in a row.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Chargers @ Dolphins (-1.5)

This should be a cracking game. The Dolphins did a solid job against the Jaguars last week, with their defence continuing to play well, and the offence looking like it is making progress. The Chargers are probably gasping for the bye to try and get healthy, but they didn’t disgrace themselves in the loss to the Broncos, and what are the chances that they would win two years in a row in Mile High stadium? I think the Chargers will do well with the extra rest, even having to travel across the country. This is a risky pick as I have no doubt that Dan will be picking the Dolphins, but I think they’ll come a cropper in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Washington @ Vikings (-1.5)

This is a meeting of two 3-5 teams who both found ways to win last week. The Vikings required an overtime Anthony Barr fumble return for a touchdown to beat the Buccaneers, whilst Washington managed to kick a field goal in overtime to win. This is the battle of last year’s Bengals’ coordinators, and whilst I think that Mike Zimmer is the better coach, I don’t know that he has the players right now. I’m more impressed with Washington beating the Cowboys and I’m getting points so I’m backing Washington for a second week in a row, but I would run a lot of miles before I put any money on this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Eagles @ Texans (+2.5)

The Texans came through for me last week, but I’m not sure they have what it takes to win or cover in this game. The defence did well and Arian Foster has rushed for one hundred yards in six of the team’s seven games, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is still a worry and I don’t think that they will have enough in this game.

I don’t think that I overestimated the Eagles but underestimated the Cardinals. There are still questions about what is going on with the offence and LeSean McCoy, but the defence is top ten by DVOA and I have a feeling that they will get back on track this week. I don’t think they were as good as their winning start to the season led some people to think (myself included), but I think they are a better team than the Texans, and whilst I might have picked too many away teams last week, I don’t appear to have learnt my lesson.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Rams @ 49ers (-9.5)

The 49ers were on a bye last week, which they probably really needed given their injuries, but couldn’t have been much fun with the big loss to the Broncos in week seven hanging over them. I think that they have enough to win this game, but they are not the team from last year and this number worries me.

Having got the great win against the Seahawks in week seven, the Rams just got battered away to the Chiefs last week. Poor Austin Davis took seven sacks, and could only muster one touchdown and an interception in the 7-34 loss. They also look to have lost left tackle Jake Long for the season to an ACL tear, with receiver Brian Quick possibly following Long to IR with a shoulder problem, as well as listing right guard Rodger Saffold and centre Scott Wells as questionable with them also having left the game on Sunday.

I know I said the number worries me, but I think the 49ers will be raring to go this weekend, and are catching the Rams at a difficult point in an already horrible season.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Broncos @ Patriots (+3.5)

It’s time for another Brady Manning Bowl, and we should enjoy it whilst we still have them, because there can’t be many of these left.

The Patriots did a real number on the Bears last week, and I’m cross with myself for picking against them. I could write an essay about the way that Patriots attack the centre of the field when Gronkowski is healthy, and how this worked perfectly in attacking the Bears defence, but my focus is actually on Brady as something occurred to me this week. I stand by what I wrote about the ball not coming out like it did, and I did see him miss some throws in that Jets game, but we’ve been watching Peyton Manning throw wobbly passes for two seasons now and he has been incredibly effective. I should have know better than to forget the brains and the will of a Tom Brady, he is past his prime, but still is an incredibly effective quarterback and it looks like the offence is coming together now. He looks to finally have got another receiver in Brandon LaFell and they scored a lot of points last week.

That said, the Broncos right now look like the best team in the league. Their offence is still the best in the league by DVOA, but their defence is improved from last season and is currently ranked second in the league. I should be worried about taking another road favourite, but as good as the Patriots are, I think the Broncos will win this one. I’m really torn on this number, logic dictates that I should take the points and the Patriots at home, but I’m an idiot and if I am going to catch Dan then I need to take the occasional risk.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Raiders @ Seahawks (-14.5)

One team is 0-7 and the other is the reigning Super Bowl Champions and so you might think this is a reasonably large line to get action on both sides, but I’m not so sure.

As defending champions the Seahawks could well be dealing with Pat Riley’s disease of more, but they are certainly having a difficult season. The defence is not playing as well as last year, the offence is not quite firing, they’ve just traded Percy Harvin, there are rumours of discord in the locker room, and they are coming off an unconvincing win. They only scored thirteen points against the Panthers and even Russell Wilson had a drop in play last week, and otherwise he has been excellent this season.

The Raiders are not a good team, but in the majority of their games they are hanging tough. Their rookie quarterback Derek Carr threw for over three hundred yards and a touchdown without an interception, which offers some hope for the future. I don’t see them winning this game, especially in Seattle, but I think that they could keep it within fifteen points. I could be wrong, and the Seahawks could get themselves back on track this week, but I wouldn’t bet on it being by fifteen points or more.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Ravens @ Steelers (-0.5)

This will be a fascinating game for those of us invested in the AFC North, but possibly not a great spectacle. Although the Ravens lost to the Bengals last week, with a different penalty call they could very easily have won, and they still look like a good team. They are now the only team ranked in the top ten in all three phases of the game by DVOA, and I continue to feel confident about them.

The problem is that I do not know what to make of the up and down Steelers. Playing in their eye catching bumble bee throw back jerseys, they put fifty-one points on a Colts defence that had shut out the Bengals the week before. It is probably worth remembering that if a team’s offence is not scoring points, but has solid line play, good receivers including on of the best in the league, and a very good looking running back, then maybe they are due some points. That said, the Colts still managed to put up thirty-four points against a defence that is really not what you would expect from a Steelers team.

I do think that the Ravens are a level above the Steelers, but divisional games can be tricky so I expect a closer game than earlier in the season, but the same end result.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Colts @ Giants (+3.5)

The Colts had been playing so well that maybe they were due a bad game, but the defence that has looked so good recently, were bad against the Steelers as detailed above. However, even under these circumstances Andrew Luck was good enough to keep them hanging around. I am not going to over react to the last game, but the Colts defence plummeted down the rankings by DVOA and it will be interesting to see how that side of the ball goes over the next few weeks.

The Giants are coming off a bye week that followed two difficult losses. There’s no shame in losing to the Eagles and Cowboys this season, but the loss to the Eagles was pretty awful and the Cowboys beat them fairly easily as well. They are pretty much mid table in all three phases of the game by DVOA and I don’t think they have enough to win this game. I seem to be picking a lot of road favourites again, and I am a little bit torn on this one, but in the end I’m sticking with my instincts.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Neither Dan nor I liked the lines much last week and agreed they were a manure based bread snack.. However, the games were excellent, with the highlight probably being an improbable victory for the Rams over the visiting Seahawks. A win that included two great special teams plays that are well worth a look if you haven’t seen them yet. Also worth mentioning is that Peyton Manning passed Bret Farve to become the quarterback with the most passing touchdowns in league history, and given that he doesn’t look like slowing down anytime soon, I think that record is going to get a lot bigger.

I’m kicking myself a little bit about picking the Chargers last week, I was tempted to pick them as the injuries are mounting up for the Chargers, the Chiefs were coming off a bye and had been playing well, despite the now odd looking loss to the Titans. What I didn’t know was that Andy Reid had a 13-2 record coming off a bye, more proof that he is a pretty good coach.

I reverted very quickly to gallows humour on Sunday whilst watching the Bengals get bludgeoned by the Colts defence. I’m adopting the new nickname of the Cincinnati Bagels for my team, as heard on the Tuesday Morning Football Podcast, for this week and hopefully they can manage to score some points against the good visiting Ravens, but as I’m beginning to talk about the games, I guess I should start writing them up properly.

Gee:      Week 7   6-9                       Overall   52-54
Dan:      Week 7   6-9                       Overall   55-51

Chargers @ Broncos (-7.5)

We have now had two good Thursday night games in a row and this one looks like it should a cracker. Both teams are playing well, although the Chargers are the much more injured team. I’m really looking forward to going through the coaching tape of this one, but for me I think there is only one likely winner. The Chargers have been kings of the time of procession battle and I think it is possible that they keep it close again, but the problem is that the Broncos defence is playing very well and they are surging ahead atop the DVOA rankings. This could backfire on me as these larger spreads are difficult, but I have a feeling that the Broncos are going to do well at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Lions vs. Falcons (+3.5)

Not only do we get a game in London this week, but the NFL are experimenting with an early kick-off. This will, as much as anything, tell them if they can fit another game into the Sunday TV schedules, firming up the rationale for putting on the games in London and possibly giving them another package to sell to the American networks. Sadly I think this is going to be a very one sided game. The Lions defence is playing brilliantly and the Falcons have lost five o-line starters to injury already this season. Not a good combination, and although the Lions have been struggling on offence, the Falcons defence has been worse so for me this is a simple pick.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Bills @ Jets (-2.5)

I was pretty impressed with a lot of what the Jets did against the Patriots last week, and you can make a case that they should have won the game. The problem is that they didn’t, and they failed to win in particularly characteristic ways. The bad penalties and the offence lack talent is not something that is going to turn around quickly. I wrote in my recap of the game that you can’t fix a lack of talent during the season, and the Jets immediately go out and trade for Percy Harvin. The history of high profile wide receiver transactions has not often been successful, so I’m really not sure if Percy Harvin will have an impact in this game. The deal was worth doing as Harvin’s contract means they can cut him easily if things don’t work out, and they only gave up a sixth round pick, but this isn’t a magic panacea that is going to fix all of their problems.

It turns out that Sammy Watkins is so good, that you only need competent quarterback play to win games, although the Bills left it very late against the Vikings. However, I don’t think the Jets will have the same success running the ball in this game and as a consequence I think this is a worse match up for them. I think this will be a very good close game, but I think I know where this one is going.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Bears @ Patriots (-6.5)

I’m really not sure what to make of this game. The Bears have so much talent at the skill positions and Jay Cutler has the arm you would want, but he doesn’t protect the ball. The defence is ranked twelfth, which I think a lot of fans would have taken at the beginning of the season, and would be good enough to win if the offence was firing. Last week’s loss to the Dolphins was horrible, and there were was apparently plenty of frustration in the locker room after the game. However, this might not be that bad a game for them. I’m not sure that the Patriots team are firing on all cylinders yet, and they definitely can be run on, so I can see the Bears keeping this game close.

There is no doubting Brady’s competitive nature, and there are signs that things can work for their offence, but I’m not convinced. The ball doesn’t look like it is coming out of Brady’s hand as well as it used to; there have only been flashes from Gronkowski, Wright, LaFell, Edelman, and Amendola in the passing game; and they looked to be missing Stevan Ridley in the rushing game last week. I think they will win this game, but I don’t think they are going to run away with it. These are two teams that I have not been picking well all season, but I’m plumping for another close game.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Ravens @ Bagels (-1.5)

Oh dear… The Bagels couldn’t get anything going on Sunday and it was painful to watch, although not as painful as the hits on Giovani Bernard, who got drilled twice on attempted screen plays that went nowhere. There are injuries in the receiving corp, but we have enough weapons. The hard truth is that it looks like that Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard are playing the wrong roles, in that Hill should be getting more carries and Bernard should be coming in as an awesome change of pace back. The defence stood up pretty well considering the number of three and outs the Bagels offence had to start the game, meaning that the defence was not getting a lot of help. The only crumb of comfort I’ve drawn so far, was the suggestion by Ross Tucker that the Bagels and Panthers’ poor play in week seven could be linked to them playing a full extra quarter of overtime in week six. I really hope that explains it.

There are questions about the Raven’s high rankings in the Football Outsiders stats due to the schedule they have played, but they look very good to me. The defence is playing a familiar brand of tough excellence, and Steve Smith has really added to an offence that really seems to be firing under new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak. I would love to be proved wrong, and I really hope that we get a close brawl of an AFC North game, but I’m worried about this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Bagels

Texans @ Titans (+0.5)

The Texans had fairly spectacular collapse in about two minutes at the end of the second quarter, which was enough for the Steelers to turn the game around and continue their very good run on Monday night football. The questions about the offence remain, and they feel like they are a team that are going to hover around .500 all season. They are currently 3-4, and I fancy them to get back on track this week.

One of the biggest questions about the Titans is ho w did they get their win against the Chiefs in week one. They just managed to beat the Jaguars in week six and then lost to Washington on Sunday, but they have not been good and it looks like they will have a high draft pick to find themselves a franchise quarterback.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Rams @ Chiefs (-6.5)

So this is a game between the pick that got away from me last week, and the result I never saw coming.

The Chiefs are a very solid football team that have some weapons on offence and a very solid defence. They beat the Chargers at their own game last week and welcome a Rams team that got the result of week seven. This is one of those games that I’m going back and forth on, but the Chiefs are ranked thirteenth in special teams, and I can’t see a repeat of the Rams heroics on that side of the ball in this game so I’m worriedly going with the Chiefs to beat the spread.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Dolphins @ Jaguars (+5.5)

The Dolphins had a very good day in Chicago on Sunday leading the entire game as Ryan Tannehill threw for 277 yards and two touchdowns on twenty-five of thirty-two pass attempts. The defence are currently ranked third by DVOA and if they can get play like this from Tannehill more regularly they could really make fight of the AFC East.

Although it destroyed another pick for me, I’m pretty happy for the Jaguars as they finally notched one in the win column. That they managed this despite Blake Bortles throwing three interceptions, which speaks of a solid performance by their defence. The problem is that they lost Paul Posluszny for the rest of the year to a torn pectoral, and he has been a cornerstone of their defence so I think they will come down with a bump in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Vikings @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

Urgh…

So the Vikings narrowly lost to the Bills with Teddy Bridgewater throwing a pair of interceptions and the Bills losing two running backs during the game. Their o-line is not good and the defence is ranked a lowly twenty-second, which is surprising given Mike Zimmer’s ability as a defensive coach.

The Buccaneers are coming off a bye week having been thoroughly beaten by the Ravens, and although it was not as bad as the Falcons drubbing, it was not good. They’ve been pretty poor, with only the week five overtime win against the Saints to cling to.

I don’t like either side in this game, so I’m reluctantly taking the points as I have to make a pick, but I’m glad I don’t have any money riding on this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Seahawks @ Panthers (+4.5)

So I follow up one game where I don’t know what to make of the teams, to another that I’m struggling with but for different reasons.

The Seahawks lost another game road game, and their special teams have plummeted down the DVOA rankings after last week’s performance. They are looking good on offence, with Russell Wilson continuing his excellent season, but they are a bit thinner on defence, the pass rush is not creating pressure like it was last season. However, they are still a good team with very good players and I find it hard to believe that they will lose three games in a row.

The Panthers had one of those games that can happen to anyone visiting Lambeau Field. They simply don’t have the secondary to cope with Aaron Rodgers, and having only allowed two touchdowns in the first quarter before this game, found themselves down at the end of the opening quarter. Cam Newton has been playing well this season, but he couldn’t get the Panthers back in the game. I have gone 2-5 picking the Panthers this year, and I don’t feel great about this, but there is a large gap between them in the DVOA rankings, and I think that the Seahawks will return to winning ways this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Eagles @ Cardinals (-2.5)

The Cardinals got their fifth win of the season last week, and stand atop of the loaded NFC West despite various injuries. Carson Palmer has looked okay when he has played, but the offence is ranked only twenty-fifth by DVOA, and it is their top five defence that’s keeping them in games. They were comfortable against the Raiders without exactly impressing, and I’m sort of waiting for the key injuring on defence to catch up with them.

The Eagles are the other team coming of a bye in week 7, and were very impressive in their week 6 game against the Giants. They got a pass rush unlike anything we have seen from them all season, and somehow they are ranked higher in defence than offence by DVOA. I think this will be a really good game, but I think right now that the Eagles are the healthier and therefore the better team so I’m taking the points.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Raiders @ Browns (-7.5)

I don’t like this line at all. The Raiders are not good, although there are signs that they might have a quarterback in Derek Carr, but I’m not sure where their first win is coming from. The Browns however, seem to be struggling due to the shuffles on their o-line since the Alex Mack injury, and whilst I think the Browns should win, I don’t like the points. I don’t like picking the Raiders, but in this game I’m going to give it a go.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Colts @ Steelers (+2.5)

I do not know what to make of the Steelers. They are up and down on offence and ranked a measly twenty-sixth in defensive DVOA. Their defence doesn’t look right and the offence isn’t scoring that many points. They put up thirty points last week, but they had two drives that started in the red zone in that game, and I think they might struggle this week because of the opposition. Plus, if they lose they get to keep their alternating win-loss record they’ve currently got going.

I have watched the Colts for two weeks straight now and have been impressed by their defence. They are blitzing a lot on third down, getting pressure, and are much better than I was expecting, or gave them credit for until recently. When you couple this with an offence led by Andrew Luck, you can see why they are 5-2 and heading up the AFC South. They have joined the Ravens in having all three phases of the game ranked inside the top ten by DVOA and I think that they will win this game and cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Packers @ Saints (-1.5)

The Saints could be due a win, and possibly should have had one against the Lions, but there was some horrific angles taken by their secondary in conceding a touchdown to Golden Tate and once again the Saints offence isn’t quite running as smoothly as we have come to expect.

The Packers on the other hand, are up and running after their 1-2 start. Their defence is ranked a credible tenth by DVOA and the offence is looking like the well oiled machine we have come to expect, and have the number two ranking to match. I see this game going only one way, which is worrying as this is a competitive league, but I do think the Packers will win this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Washington @ Cowboys (-9.5)

The Washington season is not going well, they have lots of questions surrounding their quarterbacks, and for this game they are starting Colt McCoy, which can’t be good. Their defence is doing okay, but they’ve just lost Brian Orakpo for the season to a third torn pectoral muscle of his career. The good news is that they are ranked top ten in rush defence by DVOA, which is going to be handy in this game as the Cowboys are pretty good at running the ball. I do not think they can win this game, but the points worry me in this game.

The Cowboys continue to be one of the stories of the season, and took care of business against the Giants at home in what could have been a letdown game after they went to Seattle and beat the Seahawks. I am pretty confident that they are going to win this game, but the points worry me. Washington’s defence is ranked a little worse in pass and a lot better against the run than the Giants, who lost by ten to the Cowboys. It might be that I got bitten by this number last week, but I just have a feeling that in a divisional game Washington might keep it closer. I’m worried about the Colt McCoy experience, and I’m sure that the Cowboys will win, but I’m backing Washington for the cover. Eeep.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

It has been a fairly hectic week so having finally got a close Thursday night game, I had to abandon the coach’s tape half way through this weekend, and missed another write up which is pretty frustrating. Losing another game to Dan was even more frustrating, and changing your mind on the Browns and then watching them hammer the Steelers was down right infuriating.

I can just about live with the Giants just getting blown out by the Eagles; and I should have know that the Seahawks would not win by eight, even if I wasn’t expecting them to lose; I missed on the Packers by half a point; but that Browns win is bugging me as the signs were there and I second guessed myself. Worse than all of that though is how my team is playing since their bye week. It feels like the Bengals are faltering, and whilst they are beaten up at certain spots on the roster, I’m becoming increasingly worried that the playoff win drought is going to continue for another year.

So on to the week 7 games, and the lines are horrible. As I write this introduction there are three games that I have actually picked a side on so let’s write them up and see how things go. The only thing I can take solace in is that I keep hearing professional NFL commentators say they don’t know what’s going on this season either.

Gee:     Week 6   10-5             Overall   46-45
Dan:     Week 6   11-4             Overall   49-42

Jets @ Patriots (-9.5)

So last week the Thursday night game was decided by five points, but I don’t see that happening this week. The Patriots got themselves going against the Bengals at home, and then followed it up with a very solid win away at Buffalo. Tom Brady threw for over 300 yards for the first time this season, getting four touchdowns and making use not only of Gronkowski, but Brandon LaFell who led the team in receiving yards and touchdowns. There were some notable injuries to linebacker Jerod Mayo and Steven Ridley, but the top of the AFC East looks a lot more familiar this week.

The Jets continue to struggle and I don’t see it changing this week playing in New England. Their offence is still sputtering and their defence is in danger of dropping out of the top 20 by DVOA. The only bright spot by the numbers is their special teams ranking of sixth, but in the introduction to the almanac, Football Outsiders gave a ratio of importance for the three phases as 4:3:1 in order of offence, defence, and special teams. They did lead their game for one quarter, and the defence gave Peyton Manning some problems, but having got themselves back into the game at 17-24. Geno Smith threw a pick-six and the game was over. They also could ill afford to lose another member of their secondary with Dee Milliner tearing his achilles. Having beaten the woeful Raiders in week one, they have lost by seven or more points for the rest of the season. The amount of points in this week’s spread does give me pause, but in the end I’m backing Patriots on a Thursday night game, which could get ugly.

Gee’s Pick:       Patriots
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

Dan’s Comments: – Horrible. Patriots will win, but it’s difficult to predict by how much. I’ll pick them though this week.

Falcons @ Ravens (-6.5)

This is one of the few relatively straight forward picks this week. There are only so many ways you can write that the Falcons are too injured. They still have talent on offence, but they are ranked thirty-first on defence by DVOA and are not a good road team. The Ravens on the other hand are currently ranked second overall by DVOA, are ranked top ten in all phases of the game, and are playing well. I don’t think Flacco will be throwing four touchdowns in a quarter again, but I’m happily taking the Ravens. Now watch them lose…

Gee’s Pick:       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

Dan’s Comments: – So the Bears pretty much took the Falcons apart week 6, and similarly the Ravens tore the Bucks a new one (arguably not difficult!). Comfortable Ravens win.

Vikings @ Bills (-4.5)

I don’t know what I am meant to do with this game. I haven’t had a handle on the Bills all year, but in last week’s game, the defence that has been so solid was somewhat porous against the Patriots. Kyle Orton has looked okay in parts, and is certainly a step up from Manuel, but he can’t throw interceptions if the Bills want to win.

The Vikings had a horrible loss against the Lions. In a game they have traditionally done well in, they struggled as their rookie quarterback threw three interceptions against the Lions. That said, the blame shouldn’t all be placed on Teddy Bridgewater, he was sacked eight times as the Lions pass rush harassed him so frequently that it is hard to imagine anyone thriving under those circumstances. They are thirtieth in overall DVOA and thirty-first in offence. In a week that requires them to go against another good defence I think they will struggle again. The points worry me, but I think the Bills keep themselves in the hunt in the AFC East with a win and that’s where I’m going.

Gee’s Pick:       Bills
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings

Dan’s Comments: – Vikings aren’t scoring much, but Buffalo’s defence has been shaky recently. I’ve got a feeling it’s going to be Minnesota’s week this week though.

Dolphins @ Bears (-3.5)

The Bears needed the win last week to stay competitive in their division, and they got it on the road against the Falcons. It was good Cutler in week six, who threw for 381 yards, a touchdown, but more importantly no interceptions. Their defence somehow jumped up eight places in defensive DVOA despite them beginning the game without all three of their starting linebackers. The question is how much of their win in the last game was them playing better, and how much was the Falcons playing badly.

The Dolphins seem to be playing solidly, and only narrowly lost to the Packers. They are mid league in overall ranking and offence by DVOA, horrible in special teams, and top five in defence. There are two big bits of news coming out of their weekend game. The first is the continued questions surrounding their coach Joe Philbin, who took a horrible time out with thirteen seconds on the play clock, giving Aaron Rodgers of all people a chance to take stock and prepare the game winning touchdown, which he duly got on the next play. I’ve mentioned before about the apparent dysfunction in the way this team is run, and this doesn’t seem like great game management, although there is more to being a head coach than just that. Of more significance perhaps is the loss of Knowshon Moreno, who is done for the year with an ACL tear. However, Lamar Miller has been doing well this season, and I was impressed with rookie Damien Williams in pre-season so they hopefully can cope.

I am going back and forth on this game, but I see it as another close one for the Dolphins, and whilst I don’t know if they will win, I’ll take the points and see how I do.

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Dolphins

Dan’s Comments: – Picking Dolphins again this week, partly through blind hope, and partly because I know it’s annoying Gee! Sorry mate!

Gee’s Reply: – I’m only annoyed at being three games behind to someone who is blindly picking their team, but the fault is really mine…

Bengals @ Colts (-2.5)

It may be the influence of Ross Tucker in the way he talks about ties on his podcast, but the last two games since the bye feel like losses and it seems weird to keep seeing them listed above the Ravens who have one more win. The Bengals could have won it on the last play of the game, but Nugent missed the filed goal. The offence is continuing to find ways to get points despite Andy Dalton losing more targets, and Marvin Jones has just been moved to IR and won’t be coming back this season. The defence seems to be getting gashed in the running game, and are struggling against the pass as it doesn’t matter how good your secondary is if your pass rush can’t get to the quarterback. It is too early to hit the panic button; the Bengals need to get Green back healthy and find some stops on defence, but I’m not sure this is the game to do it. It’s also worth noting that things didn’t improve on defence with the return of Vontaze Burfict, who announced his return by appearing to twist at the ankles of Greg Olsen and Cam Newton, which has to be dealt with. He is a player who plays on the edge, but there are fouls and then there is intentionally trying to injure someone. We’ll see how the league decides to deal with it, but the Bengals need him playing well and making tackles, playing the right way.

I was really impressed with both Andrew Luck and TY Hilton when I watched them last week. I also really liked the onside kick that was easily recovered to get them an extra possession. They were seventeen points up in under ten minutes and twenty-four up by the end of the first quarter. However, the Texans did manage to make a game of it and get themselves back into the game. I was fairly impressed with the Colts’ defence, but I’m not sure how much of that was the o-line and patchy nature of the Texans. In this game I like them to do well, AJ Green is out at least another week, and I’m wary of how much time Andrew Luck is going to get in this game. I’ll happily drop a win to Dan if it means the Bengals win, but I think they would need Green back to keep up in this game. I hope I am wrong.

Gee’s Pick:       Colts
Dan’s Pick:       Colts

Dan’s Comments: – To make things worse, I’m going to pick the Colts. They’re starting to roll and I think the Bengals may struggle.

Browns @ Jaguars (+4.5)

The Jaguars can’t quite seem to find a way to win. They moved off the bottom of the rankings by DVOA, but they had a chance to win their last game with an end of the game field goal but had it blocked. The defence seems to have improved a little, but Blake Bortles is getting very little blocking from his o-line, and whilst there are times when he holds on to the ball for too long, a lot of the time the defence is getting to him without having to blitz. I think they are going to be kicking themselves about this loss as it was an opportunity for them, one that I don’t think they are going to get this week.

I’m still kicking myself about my Browns pick last week, and it is not as if they only just squeaked by the points spread. The surprising thing to me is not what they are doing, but how they are doing it as the defence is only ranked twenty-ninth by DVOA and their offence is ranked number two, with Brian Hoyer at quarterback and without their star wide receiver. I don’t see anything in the Jaguars that makes me think that the Browns won’t cover this spread.

Gee’s Pick:       Browns
Dan’s Pick:       Browns

Dan’s Comments: – Not a difficult pick this one. Jags aren’t looking great, although they got agonisingly close to their first ‘W’ last weekend.

Saints @ Lions (-2.5)

The Saints were on a bye last week, but I’m not sure how much that is going to help them unless Rob Ryan has done some serious self-scouting and has a new plan for his badly misfiring defence. In fairness, the offence hasn’t been what you would expect and it will be interesting to see how they do this week against a Lions team that leads the league in defensive DVOA. They could turn it round and go on a run, but right now I need to see something from them before I will believe it.

The Lions are doing it with defence. They are struggling on offence, and look like a different team with Calvin Johnson sidelined with his ankle problems, but it’s probably best to sit him now and try to get him healthy for the home stretch. The defence not only leads the league in DVOA, but looks like it is playing that well too. They gave poor Teddy Bridgewater no time to work with last week, and having stifled Aaron Rodgers earlier in the season, I think they will do enough to win this game for their offence.

Gee’s Pick:       Lions
Dan’s Pick:       Lions

Dan’s Comments: – Tricky. I think the Lions will just about have enough to overcome New Orleans.

Panthers @ Packers (-6.5)

I’m really not sure what to make of either of these teams. The Packers got a win against the Dolphins because Aaron Rodgers is really good at football (with apologies to Bill Barnwell), and they are well ranked in DVOA, but they did only just beat the Dolphins who are very up and down. The Panthers are lower ranked than the Dolphins, but beat the Bengals who are one place above the Packers, and seem to be up and down themselves. I’m a confused mess when I watch these teams. I feel like the Packers should win, and have more faith in them than I do in Carolina, but do I have seven points worth of faith? I really don’t know, so I’m falling back on taking the points, and my first pick as if the Packers win, fine I was wrong, but I’ll kick myself if the Panthers keep it close, which I think they might. I think…

Gee’s Pick:       Panthers
Dan’s Pick:       Panthers

Dan’s Comments: – Another difficult one. Packers will win this, but not by a touchdown, so I’ll pick Carolina.

Titans @ Washington (-4.5)

So Washington lost to the Cardinals, with Kirk Cousins falling to 0-3 as a starter this season. He threw for 354 yards, two interceptions, and three picks, which explains why they lost again. The problem seems to be accuracy, as he has good moments, but he can’t seem to protect the football. The defence is keeping them in games and this could be the game that they get one back in the win column. I’m not sure how good the Titans should feel getting that a win against the 0-6 Jaguars, given that they could have lost it. Still, all wins count the same and they did block the Jaguars’ attempt at a field goal. However, I think that Washington will be a sterner a test and that the winning feeling will be a short lived one in Tennessee.

Gee’s Pick:       Washington
Dan’s Pick:       Washington

Dan’s Comments: – This is the pick I’ve been struggling with most this week. I think Washington will start to turn it round this week.

Seahawks @ Rams (+6.5)

So the big result in week six was the Seahawks losing at home to the Cowboys. The Seahawks look like they lack a little bit of depth on defence this year, even before they lost Byron Maxwell to a calf injury (he is currently listed as doubtful for this game), and are not quite the same dominant team as they were last season, although they are still pretty damn good. However, Russell Wilson has proven himself to be an excellent quarterback, and it took a fine overall performance and game plan from the Cowboys to defeat them. However, I do think that they will bounce back against the Rams, whose defence is not playing up to the level that I expected and whose offence is struggling. It was always going to be a long season for the Rams after Sam Bradford went down and I don’t see that changing here. They are at the wrong end of the DVOA standings in all three phases of the game and although I have a slight pause at the points, I don’t think they cover in this game.

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Seahawks

Dan’s Comments: – Finally an easy pick. Rams are looking pretty terrible.

Chiefs @ Chargers (-4.5)

The Chiefs are the other team coming off a bye this week, and I’m not sure that I’m happy to see them back. This is strictly because I really haven’t got a handle on how to pick this team. I saw them several times in preseason and was impressed, they have some good attacking talent and Alex Smith may not be a flashy QB, but he wins games. They are ranked in the middle of the league for everything by DVOA, and have a blow out win against the Patriots on Monday Night Football as well as loss to the generally woeful Titans. I think that they are a sold football team, but that this won’t cut it in a division with the Chargers and the Broncos.

The Chargers are playing brilliantly at the moment, but injuries might be catching up with them. The Raiders were the first team to stop the Chargers covering this season, but Philip Rivers is still playing as well as any quarterback in the league, leading the offense to a ranking of sixth by DVOA despite having no running game to support him. Now the Raiders have occasionally shown some signs of life, and they could have been buoyed by their new head coach, but I don’t want to read too much into this game. I may regret this, because as usual the points total worries me, but I’m learning my lesson last week and I’m not second guessing myself.

Gee’s Pick:       Chargers
Dan’s Pick:       Chargers

Dan’s Comments: – Chargers by 10

Giants @ Cowboys (-6.5)

The Giants ran into a brick wall against the Eagles. Their improving offence was shut out whilst giving up eight sacks, and their defence was gouged for 203 yards rushing, including LeSean McCoy’s first one hundred yard game of the season. The Giants currently are 3-3 and haven’t finished a game within a single score all year. I’m not sure what to make of their overall DVOA as a loss like this will send you into freefall, but dropping from eighth to twenty-first was pretty spectacular. So the question is what team is going to turn up this week, and the honest answer is I don’t know, but given the horrible injury to Victor Cruz I think they could struggle on offence.

Their opponents however, have done if not the impossible, then the very difficult in beating the Seahawks in Seattle. I should have given them the credit that they would cover, but I don’t feel bad about being unsure if they could win. This was the test that everybody wanted to see if the Cowboys were for real, and it appears that they are. DeMarco Murray has started the season with six one hundred yard rushing games, the only other running back to do that is Jim Brown, and any time you get mentioned with a name like that you know that something is going right. The knock on Murray has been his durability so I do wonder if they are going to lighten his workload as he is currently on pace for over four hundred carries this season, but the line is playing great, and the offence is currently top ten by DVOA. I think the Cowboys will continue their good record this week, and I just hope they cover.

Gee’s Pick:       Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

Dan’s Comments: – The Cowboys are impressing a lot of people I’m talking to at the minute. May that continue into week 7!

Cardinals @ Raiders (+3.5)

It is possible that Bruce Arians is doing the best coaching job in the NFL right now. He’s had a revolving door at quarterback and the team have suffered various injuries, yet somehow they have a 4-1 record. Their defence is ranked sixth by DVOA despite the offseason losses and current injuries. They took care of Washington last week and I expect them to do the same to the Raiders.

The Raiders played better last week, staying with the Chargers throughout the game, but ultimately couldn’t get their first win. David Carr has a really good looking arm, but was inaccurate throwing the last deep ball that was intercepted and is going through typical rookie growing pains. The problem is that in week three the Raiders hung tough with Patriots and the following week they were walloped by the Dolphins in London. It’s possible that they could play the Cardinals close this week, but I’m not prepared to back them doing it just yet.

Gee’s Pick:       Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Dan’s Comments: – Cardinals’ll be fairly comfortable this week against the Raiders.

49ers @ Broncos (-6.5)

This is probably the game of the week. The Broncos head up the DVOA rankings with an offense ranked number one and a defensive rank of two, and it has often felt like they haven’t hit top gear yet. This could very well be the game that Peyton Manning gets the record for the most touchdowns thrown by a quarterback.

The 49ers took care of the Rams in the second half of last week’s game, ultimately running out handy winners with an impressive defensive performance and some high powered plays on offence. How their defence is ranked number three by DVOA given the injuries and suspensions they have on that side of the ball is something of a question. However, with Patrick Willis now looking doubtful with a toe injury, I wonder if this is a game too far for this team. I’m going with my gut this time as the 49ers were playing the Rams last week.

Gee’s Pick:       Broncos
Dan’s Pick:       49ers

Dan’s Comments: – Two pretty well matched teams. I’ll pick SF because of the Spread.

Texans @ Steelers (-3.5)

The Steelers look like they might be the worst team in the AFC North. The big surprise for me is that they have one of the best receivers in the game in Antonio Brown, a running back that looks really good in Le’Veon Bell, yet somehow their offence has only managed ten points in their last two games. I didn’t think their o-line looked bad when I watched the coaching tape a few weeks ago, but something is clearly not working. When you couple that with a defence that is struggling, it got gouged for 158 yards last week, and is ranked a poor by Pittsburgh standards twenty-third by DVOA, you have a recipe for a disappointing season.

The Texans are so much better than last year, but they aren’t quite there yet. I’ve frequently declared my love for JJ Watt, but Arian Foster is also playing well this season, and Andre Johnson continues to be a threat. The problem is that Ryan Fitzpatrick is streaky and the team seems to be playing in the same manner. They did really well to get back into the game last week against the Colts, but you’re not going to win many games by going down twenty-four points in the first quarter. I just have a feeling that with the Steelers struggling, the Texans might be able to take advantage and even if they can’t, I’m not sure the Steelers are going to win by a lot. Cue a Steelers blowout, but that’s not what I’m picking to happen

Gee’s Pick:       Texans
Dan’s Pick:       Texans

Dan’s Comments: – Texans in this one, I think.

I had a better time with my picks last week, but it didn’t do me much good as Dan and I had matching records, so I’m still two games behind him, and he is at a respectable 50% overall. I also didn’t get a chance to write up last week’s Thursday night game as I was busy over the weekend. Sadly it was another blow out, and so I don’t feel too guilty as although I enjoy looking at the coaching tape now that I have available to me, it would be nice to get to do it for a close game.

I thought that this week’s DVOA roundup from Football Outsiders (found here), had some interesting things to say on the overall standard of teams this season, and is well worth a look if you get a chance.

There will be a slight change this week as Dan is currently away, I have his Thursday night pick and will give post the rest when he gets back before the games on Sunday. There are not a lot games that I like the lines of, so let’s take a look as it is going to be another interesting week in the NFL.

Gee:     Week 4   10-5              Overall   36-40
Dan:     Week 4   10-5              Overall   38-38

Colts @ Texans (+2.5)

I was right in suggesting that the Texans would be involved in a close game last week, as they covered in a three point loss to the Cowboys. Their defence kept them in the game, despite Tony Romo spinning away from JJ Watt to complete a 43 yard pass, and Dez Bryant making a catch over Jonathan Joseph despite perfect coverage and Joseph having an arm between Bryant’s hands during the catch. The problem for this team is going to be the offence, and whether they can give the team enough to win. In some games they will, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is a limited quarterback who only had 154 yards and an interception against the Cowboys, and this is likely to be a problem all year.

The Colts on the other hand, have the luxury of having another great quarterback, and whilst he didn’t have his best game last week, he has led his team to the thirteenth on offence by DVOA this season in only his third year. I don’t know what the Thursday night effect will be on the game, and I fear another blow out, but I’m taking the Colts.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Patriots @ Bills (+3.5)

So I didn’t pick the Patriots last week, as their week four loss taught me that to do so just because of Brady and Belichick in a prime time game was a bad reason to pick games that way. Well, they followed up that horrible loss against the Chiefs on Monday night football, by spanking the Bengals in the Sunday night game. I’ll cover the Bengals in the next game write up, but the Patriots came out aggressively and played their best football of the season. Their o- line looked better, and Brady looked like he was having fun, which is easier to do when you are winning. I’m not sure they have answered every question, but the dual tight end attack featuring a rejuvenate Rob Gronkowski, and their late preseason trade piece Tim Wright, caught the eye with 185 yards and two touchdowns between them. Add to this 220 yards on the ground and it was a long day for the Bengals defence. Despite their turbulent start to the season, they have a chance this week to take sole possession of the AFC East with a win over the Bills.

I do not have a handle on the Bills at all. They beat the Lions 17-14, but the Lions kicker missed three field goals and so could have won the game pretty easily. Their defence and special teams are both ranked third by DVOA, but their offence is a sputtering twenty-seventh and whilst Kyle Orton is a stable starter, especially when compared to EJ Manuel, I don’t see them improving dramatically. I have picked the Patriots wrong for two weeks now, so Bills fans could well be happy that I’m picking against them this week, but I see a more familiar shape to the AFC East by the end of this weekend.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots

Panthers @ Bengals (-7.5)

I am not panicking, but I am worried. The Bengals team is still good, and has a lot of talent, but I’m still waiting for the light to go on in prime time. This was another game where Andy Dalton failed to answer the questions that surround him in big games. The Bengals are clearly missing Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert in the passing game, and Hue Jackson’s commitment to the run doesn’t seem to have materialised. I think they’ll continue to be good and make the playoffs, but it really is a playoff win or bust for this team, and I this is the kind of game that makes you wonder if this is the year they turn it round. I am not one of those who questions Marvin Lewis’ record, if you look at the changes he has made over the years to the Bengals, I think there has been tremendous process. I understand that he hasn’t won a playoff game, but the Bengals were a national joke and he has turned that round into a good drafting, very talented team. You don’t throw that away, but I don’t understand why good head coaches, who are not great game managers, don’t just hire someone to this for them. Andy Reid is another really good coach, who could benefit from someone tracking time management etc on game day.

The Panthers proved me wrong last week, beating a Bears team that are up and down and lead their conference with a 3-2 record. Cam Newton is really developing as a quarterback, throwing two touchdowns to tight end Greg Olsen and he is gaining trust in rookie receiver Kelvin Benjamin. The defence is still a worry, ranking twenty-seventh by DVOA and giving up 347 yards last week, but they did get four turnovers. I expect the Bengals to bounce back at home where they have been very good for several seasons now, but I believe that the Panthers will give a good account of themselves so I am wary of this points total.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers

Steelers @ Browns (-1.5)

I’m really not sure where to go with this line. The Steelers continued their win, loss, win, loss pattern by beating the Panthers last week, but they’ve not been convincing for a lot of the year. Not only did the Browns win on the road against the woeful Titans, but they managed the largest ever comeback by a road team, overturning a twenty-five point deficit in the process. I think this game could go either way, but whilst I think the Browns are a tough team to play, I’m not sure that they should be favourites in this game. Neither of these teams’ defences are ranked as well as I would have expected going into the season, but I have more faith in the Steelers’ offence than I do in the Browns’ offence, despite the Browns ranking five places higher at fourth by DVOA, so I’m going with the Steelers.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers

Broncos @ Jets (+8.5)

The Jets are struggling due to a lack of talent. On offence things are going from bad to worse and it looks like I was wrong to say there were signs of improvement in Geno Smith, particularly with stories of him missing meetings and visiting the cinema before a game. In fairness, Michael Vick didn’t exactly light it up when he came into the game. That the Jets are a mess is not perhaps a surprise, but they are also ranked nineteenth on defence as the play of their secondary means that even Rex Ryan is struggling to sort them out. I think this is going to be one season too many for Ryan, who I’m not convinced about as a head coach, but who I would hire in a heart beat as a defensive coordinator, particularly if you have the personnel in place for his 3-4 scheme.

There is not much to say about the Broncos for the opposite reason. They are very good, it’s no surprise that Peyton Manning is playing well, and their defence is ranked second by DVOA, whilst they team overall stands top of both the DVOA and DAVE rankings. It was only in the fourth quarter, when injuries caught up with the Cardinals, that they really pulled away from the visiting team, so I don’t feel bad about picking against the Broncos last week, but I can’t see the Jets doing anything similar in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos

Lions @ Vikings (+1.5)

This is a big game for the Lions if they want to remain in contention in the NFC North. They could have won the game last week despite Calvin Johnson being hobbled, having left nine points on the field through missed field goals. The offence is struggling and I don’t see that changing with Calvin Johnsons being listed as doubtful. However their defence is ranked first by DVOA and this it was this side of the ball that helped them beat the Packers in week 3. They have the Vikings, Saints, and Falcons coming up before a bye, so now looks to be not a bad time to rest Johnson and look to push on later in the season. I think they should be able to compete in this stretch, but it will be a test.

I’m not going to over react to the Vikings’ blow out loss on Thursday night, we only have to look at what the Buccaneers did the week after their horrible loss to the Falcons to see that this does not have to define your season, but I am worried. You knew going into that game that the offence was going to struggle with Christian Ponder starting, but in fairness there were more problems than just him. The o-line didn’t look to be getting much push in the rushing game or giving much protection in pass sets, and even when Asiata had a good run, he fumbled the ball. I’m not sure if Teddy Bridgewater will be back this week as he is still listed as questionable, so I’m not sure if the offence will turn around. The defence got gouged for various plays, but also got a lot of three and outs against the Packers offence and looked good in patches. The Vikings are currently ranked twenty-ninth overall by DVOA, but the blow out will be affecting that ranking and I think they are a little better than that. However, I don’t think that will be enough for them to win this game against the Lions.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions

Packers @ Dolphins (+3.5)

The Packers are looking more like themselves over the last two weeks, especially on offence, where Rodgers has thrown for a combined 458 yards, 7 touchdowns and no interceptions. The o-line seems to be holding up better, and Eddie Lacy is looking more like the running back he was expected to be before the start of the season. The defence also looked good last week with six sacks, and a slimmed down Julius Peppers looking good as he ran an interception back 49 yards for a touchdown. As with the Vikings, I wouldn’t read too much into the lopsided nature of the Thursday night game results as we’ve had a lot of these so far this season, but the Packers now sit third overall in DVOA, and whilst I think the defence may fall back from its current ranking of twelfth, I think the Packers are heading in the right direction.

The Dolphins are coming off a bye, having spectacularly taught me a lesson about falling for a team that sounded good in interviews. I still don’t like the way Joe Philbin dealt with his quarterback situation, but Tannehill responded with a good game in Wembley as they solidly beat the Raiders. However, I’m not going to get carried away with this win due to who they were playing. They are good on defence, but the Packers are now looking more like the team we were expecting them to be, and there are still questions around the Dolphins’ offence that makes me think they are losing this one despite being at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers

Jaguars @ Titans (-6.5)

For me this is a fairly straight forward pick. I suppose you could say that it was good that the Titans built a 25 point lead, but it was a horrible loss to the Browns, and now Jake Locker is questionable with a thumb injury. I do not like this team and I actually think that they might lose to the Jaguars, but even if they do win, I don’t see them doing so by seven or more points when the Steelers only beat the Jaguars by eight. The Jaguars don’t exactly inspire confidence, but I don’t see them losing every game and I think they will keep this game close.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars

Ravens @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

I hate this line! The Buccaneers have played solidly since their blow out loss to the Faclons in Week three, and look they have something going with Mike Glennon at quarterback, whilst the defence has also being playing better. They beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh and lost to the Saints in overtime, but they are still thirty-first overall by DVOA so I’m not that taken with them.

The problem for me is that the Ravens have looked good for a lot of the season, particularly after shaking off a week one loss against the Bengals, but they don’t seem to be travelling that well. They only beat the Browns by two points in Cleveland and lost against the Colts last week. However, there is a chasm between them in the DVOA rankings and I think that facing Mike Glennon is very different to facing Andrew Luck, so I will take the Ravens to bounce back with a win, hopefully covering the points whilst they are at it.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens

Chargers @ Raiders (+7.5)

The Chargers continue to look good, but the injuries are mounting up for them. This might make me pause over a number this large, but not against the Raiders. Right now Philip Rivers is just playing too well and the Raiders have been rotten. I don’t know why I fell for them in the London game, given that one of my survivor strategies has been picking teams playing the Raiders. I don’t what affect the firing of Dennis Allen will have, but there are also talent issue for this team and until I see something from the Raiders, I’m not backing them, even when they are getting this many points.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers

Bears @ Falcons (-3.5)

This is another line I don’t like. The Falcons are still riding high in the DVOA rankings, but that is mainly because of their game against the Buccaneers. They will be better at home as they always are, but their o-line is a mess and the defence is not looking good. The Bears need this win to stay in contention, and I think they will get it, but I am worried. They’ve not looked good over the last couple of weeks, and Jay Cutler needs to protect the ball more, but they should have too much for the Falcons

Gee’s Pick:      Bears

Cowboys @ Seahawks (-7.5)

The Cowboys continued their good start to the season with a close win over the Texans last week, but I’m not so sure of them this week. They needed overtime to get the win, and whilst their young o-line has been playing excellently, visiting Seattle is really going to test them. They made some spectacular plays on offence, which I don’t think they will get against the Seahawks, and their defence will face a tougher test this week.

I think that the Seahawks will win this game. Poor Percy Harvin had three touchdowns called back by penalties against Washington, with James Carpenter giving away twenty-five yards of penalties on two of these plays. I am worried about the points as the Cowboys have been good and the smart play would be to take them, but with that home field advantage I’m thinking that the Cowboys are in for a long day.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks

Washington @ Cardinals (-3.5)

The Cardinals were keeping it close until the fourth quarter last week, until injuries finally did for them as they lost Calais Campbell and Patrick Peterson on defence, as well as losing Drew Stanton to injury, forcing them to play the Logan Thomas at quarterback. They have to keep Thomas on the roster as someone would claim him from the practice squad, but he’s not ready to play yet and this is a real problem for them with Carson Palmer’s injury. The history of nerve issues is not inspiring; as anyone who has followed NBA great Steve Nash’s recent seasons will know, but with Drew Stanton on concussion protocol, quarterback could be a real problem for the Cardinals.

Washington has not been impressive this season, but they have a chance this week. I’m not convinced they can win; their offence and defence don’t rank too badly but their special teams are thirty-first by DVOA. They are another team that I really didn’t like in Thursday night game, but they didn’t do much last week to convince me either so whilst I am going back and forth on this one, I don’t think I can back them this week despite the Cardinals issues.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals

Giants @ Eagles (-2.5)

The Eagles found a way last week against the Rams, leading the game convincingly until the fourth quarter when they let the Rams back a little. They got another touchdown from a blocked punt, and lead the league in special teams DVOA, but their offence is still struggling compared to where they were expected to be. They are not much healthier on the o-line and LeSean McCoy has not looked like the back he was last year. The defence seems to be holding up better than expected, but overall this team’s 4-1 record includes two three point wins that could have easily gone the other way, and you can only score so many special teams touchdowns.

The Giants on the other hand, have been steadily improving, with Eli Manning now looking really good in the new offence. They have now won three straight games and are actually ranked higher in overall DVOA than the Eagles, as well as ub offensive and defensive DVOA. I fancy them to give the Eagles a hard time this week and I like that I’m getting points as well. This could well be the week there Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys all end up with 4-2 records.

Gee’s Pick:      Giants

49ers @ Rams (+3.5)

There are so many stories swirling round the 49ers, and in particular Jim Harbaugh, at the moment, but they have still won the last two games. Their defence is playing well, whilst their offence is stuttering a bit. You would like to see more development from Colin Kaepernick, but they are getting it done and I wouldn’t bet against them this week.

The Rams are thirtieth in defensive DVOA and twenty-third in offence, but whilst Austin Davis did throw for 375 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions, the Rams were never really in the game against the Eagles, and only a pair of touchdowns in the fourth quarter kept the score respectable. I don’t think that they will have such success on offence this week and I think they lose another one.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers.