Week fourteen was one to forget for me, a horrible loss to the Steelers for the Bengals, and a 7-9 record that’s dropped me a likely unrecoverable five games behind Dan with only three more weeks to go. The race for the playoffs are really heating up, nowhere is that more true than in the AFC North so let’s get cracking with the week fifteen games.

Gee:      Week 14   7-9                     Overall   101-107
Dan:       Week 14   10-6                   Overall   106-102

Cardinals @ Rams (-3.5)

This should be an interesting Thursday night game and I’m really not sure where to go with this one.

The Rams have just shut out two teams in a row, and even through it was against the Raiders and the Washington Semi-Professional football team, this is still some achievement. The defence has been playing better for several weeks, even before Chris Long returned, and I suspect that the Cardinals will have problems moving the ball this week. If they can find themselves a quarterback in the offseason then the Rams could be a very interesting team next year.

The Cardinals managed to somehow stop the rot last week against the Chiefs, despite yet more injuries and the play of Drew Stanton. I think that Bruce Arians has been coach of the year and I’m really looking forward to watching their defence again this week. I’m backing the Cardinals in this game as I’m fed up of picking against them, it feels like every time I do they punish me for it.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Steelers @ Falcons (+2.5)

It was pretty impressive how competitive the Falcons made their game against the Packers considering they were 31-7 down at half time. They have been playing a bit better in recent weeks as they remain at the top of the awful NFC south. The problem is that whilst their offence has always had the talent at the skill positions and has begun to play better recently, the defence is not good and has very little pass rush. In fact, they are dead last by DVOA and I don’t see that changing this week.

The Steelers defence has been shaky all season, but whilst the offence has been patchy, when they are on they can be devastating, as they proved this weekend. They have their own version of the Cowboy triplets with Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Le’Veon Bell. The Steelers should not be in this position as they have some horrible losses, but now we are at the business end of the season they will be there or there abouts, and I expect them to have too much for the Falcons.

I can see this being a high scoring game, but whilst I would be thrilled if the Falcon could do the Bengals a favour, I can’t see it happening.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Packers @ Bills (+5.5)

The Bills defence really is very good and is not getting a lot of help from their offence. If you had offered them a stat line of 173 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions from Peyton Manning before the game, they would have taken your arm off. However, they couldn’t take advantage of this despite out gaining them by over one hundred yards. The problem is that having traded their first round pick for next year to get Sammy Watkins, I’m not sure how they will fix the QB problem in the offseason.

The Packers had to work to keep ahead of the Falcons in the second half, but they continue to be a step above as part of an elite four. I would love JJ Watt to win this year’s MVP, but I can only see it going to Aaron Rogers who has been playing brilliantly. Their defence is also playing more than well enough to cope with the Bills and whilst they are on the road this week, I think they are good enough to cover in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Bengals @ Browns (+0.5)

The Browns lost a heartbreaker on Sunday against the Colts, and it looks like Johnny Manziel will be getting the start on Sunday against the Bengals. This is perhaps not surprising given how Brian Hoyer has struggled over the last few weeks, but whilst Johnny Football may be able to make some plays with his legs, I’m not sure if he is going to make that much difference to the offensive stuggles that this team are now going through. Their defence will keep them in this game as they have been playing really well and almost did enough last week to beat the Colts.

The Bengals never make things easy for themselves, and having picked up a game on everybody in the AFC North two weeks ago, came crashing back to the pack with a frustrating loss to the Steelers. The big plays at the end of the game were daggers to the heart, and unusual for a secondary that has held up so well throughout the season. I can’t be the only Bengals fan who is missing Mike Zimmer, and finally losing Vontaze Burfict to IR hardly inspires me with confidence given how much the defence has missed them this season. That said, AJ Green is coming of a career day and I’m sure the coaching staff will be reminding the team of the dismal result earlier this season in their Thursday night game. This is the Bengals’ easiest game left with the Broncos visiting next week and what looks like it could a huge trip to Pittsburgh to finish the season.

This could be a huge mistake as Andy Dalton hasn’t exactly proved himself in pressure games, but I have to keep faith for one more week. This is the triumph of hope over experience.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Texans @ Colts (-6.5)

The Colts are leading their division thanks to the ability of Andrew Luck in pressure situations and because TY Hilton seems to have an amazing knack of getting open for huge plays in what feels like every game. However, their offence line is not good, their running game is horrible, and their defence has been playing badly recently. Having to come from behind at the end of the game against the Browns does not inspire confidence.

The Texans maybe limited at quarterback, but they have Arian Foster back and are coming off a pair of wins. Admittedly these were against the Jaguars and Titans, but you can only beat the opposition in front of you and they finished off both competently. I have feeling that JJ Watt is going to have another great game against a Colts line that has given up too much pressure recently.

I’m not sure that the Texans can actually win this game, but I think it will be closer than the six and a half points that the Colts are giving them so I’m baking JJ Watt as life is just more fun that way.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Raiders @ Chiefs (-10.5)

The Chiefs were in the game with thirty seconds to go, and had no vertical passing game to try to win but didn’t even try. This is the Chiefs’ biggest problem this season, and to top it off they have not thrown a touchdown pass to a wide receiver all year either. Their defence has been playing well with Justin Houston having sixteen sacks this year, jointly leading the league with the Ravens’ Elvis Dumervil. They will be desperate to halt a three game losing streak and avenge their week twelve loss to their bitter divisional rivals.

The Raiders have won two out of their last three games, and look to have found their quarterback of the future. That said, it is one thing to pick a couple of wins at home, it is another to go into Arrowhead Stadium and beat their divisional rivals. I don’t think they will have enough to win this game, but I have no idea what the Chiefs have done recently to get a double digit spread in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Dolphins @ Patriots (-7.5)

The Dolphins took a narrow lead into half time against the Ravens and then fell apart in the second half. Even more worrying is that there definitely appears to be a problem with their rush defence as they got gouged for 183 yards, following up the 277 yards they gave up against the run the week before. Ryan Tannehill is running the offence within his limitations, but his is still throwing too many interceptions and they are not scoring enough points. There is an awful lot of talent on this team, but it doesn’t seem to clicking when it matters most and so a trip to snowy New England is probably not what they need right now.

The Patriots don’t lose two games in a row very often, and they righted the ship last week against the Chargers. Their secondary is playing really well and should be able to contain the Dolphins passing game, particularly as Tannehill doesn’t seem to throw the deep ball. Perhaps more worrying for the Dolphins, is the physical run game that the Patriots used to batter the Colts in week eleven, racking up well over two hundred yards in the process. I think there’s a definite chance we could see that again this week and I don’t fancy the team from Florida travelling well this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Semi-Pros @ Giants (-6.5)

The Giants have some great young talent from this last draft, but they’ve had too many failures in the preceding drafts to maintain the depth that they need. Their have been brief periods of good play, and they are still working hard for a head coach who deserves better. They are coming of a solid win against the sinking Titans and face another of the NFL’s bottom tier of teams this week. This is not a good team, but they have enough bright spots to beat a Washington team that is in disarray. Given what happened to the Semi-Pro’s secondary against the Colts in week thirteen, it will be interesting to see how big a day Odell Beckham Jnr has.

The Semi-Pros are in such a mess. Their o-line couldn’t protect Colt McCoy and he was taken out of the game with a neck injury that put Robert Griffin back into the game. The Semi-Pros have not announced which of their QBs will start in replacement of McCoy but given their respective play, neither are enticing prospects.

The Giants are giving a lot of points for a team of their quality, but there’s no way I’m backing the Semi-Pros this week, and with games coming up against the Eagles and Cowboys, I won’t be picking them again this year without getting an extraordinary amount of points.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Buccaneers @ Panthers (-5.5)

It’s probable that Cam Newton just can’t wait for this wretched season to end. After being nicked up for most of the season behind a bad line, he finally puts together a good performance as his team smashes the Saints, and then he’s involved in a car crash. He has a couple of fractures to the vertebrae in his lower back, similar to the injury that Tony Romo had earlier in the season. You would think that with a 4-8-1 record that it would be time to pack Newton in for the year, but in the NFC South such a record means you are only a game out from the divisional lead. In the first game of the season Derek Anderson led the Panthers to a solid win over the Buccaneers in Tampa, the question is whether the Panthers can repeat their performance last week or did the Saints just make them look good.

The Buccaneers are on a three game losing steak, but got soundly beaten by the Lions, having run the Bengals close at home the week before. Josh McCown took a real beating last week, but should have a much easier time against an anaemic Panthers pass rush and Mike Evans could have a field day against a Panthers secondary that has looked bad for most of the season. I think they have some hope in these matchups and their defence has been playing okay so I see them at least keeping it close.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Jaguars @ Ravens (-13.5)

This is a fairly straight forward game to me. The Ravens have a very good team everywhere bar the secondary, and the Jaguars don’t have the offence to take advantage of this. The other thing is that whilst the Jaguars have kept games close against teams with a similar record, when they have played good teams they have not only lost, but lost by a lot, including eight games by fourteen points or more.

I’m five games behind Dan and I need to make some up by taking some risks and I’ve not had a good time backing the Jaguars, even with a line this big.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens (Turns out it’s not much of a risk when Dan picks the same team as me!)

Broncos @ Chargers (+3.5)

This is a second tough home game in a row for Chargers as they follow up a visit from the Patriots with one from the Broncos. There aren’t many teams who would be able to keep both of these games competitive, but the Chargers were credible in their first game against the Patriots. Sadly though, whilst they kept it close for most of the game, the Patriots’ defence was able to clamp down and prevent the Chargers scoring any points in the second half. The problem for the Chargers is that the Broncos are ranked third in defence by DVOA and are likely to cause them problems as well.

The interesting thing in this week’s game will be the performance of Peyton Manning, who had his streak of fifty-one games with a touchdown broken last week against the Bills. There will be a lot of talk about regression and I’m sure cold weather will be mentioned in the coming weeks, but you wouldn’t bet against Manning bouncing back with a point to prove. The worrying thing for the Chargers is that Broncos seem to have found themselves a run game recently and an o-line configuration that has been playing better. It appears that the Broncos offence now has a plan B to go along with the improved defence.

There may have been some fluctuations in their performance over the year, but the Broncos have proved themselves to be one of the elite teams of the NFL, whilst the Chargers are that lit bit behind them. I think this should a really good game but I’m backing the Broncos, and Manning in warm weather, to win out in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Jets @ Titans (+1.5)

The Titans look to have lost rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger for the rest of the season, and for a team as non-descript as the Titans there doesn’t look to be much left to play for. This week they welcome the Jets in a game that pits two teams that have a share of the worst record in the league against each other. I give a slight edge to the Jets, the players are really trying for Rex Ryan, who is a good coach that is severely lacking in talent, but then so are the Titans.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Vikings @ Lions (-7.5)

In the last couple of weeks the Lions seem to have got their offence working again, and have kept themselves in the fight for a playoff spot. They have a sequence of three divisional games including a final game against the Packers in Lambeau Field. Their defence has been playing brilliantly for most of the season and have led the league by DVOA for weeks. They are one of four teams with a nine and four record and it will be a travesty when we have to lose one for the which ever team makes it out of the NFC South.

This week the Lions welcome a solid Vikings team who have improved across the season and have got themselves to a 6-7 record with a solid effort on defence and a top ten rushing attack. I don’t think that they have enough to beat the Lions in Detroit, but they have won their last two games and only lost to the Packers by three points and I have a feeling they will keep this one close.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

49ers @ Seahawks (-9.5)

There are only so many ways that you can write that the coaching situation in San Francisco is a mess, with all the problems swirling round Jim Harbaugh and an offence that is stuttering, all letting down a solid defence. Even the play of rookie linebacker Chris Borland, who leads the teams in tackles, won’t be enough to wash away the aftertaste of a bitter loss to the team from across the bay. If losing in Oakland wasn’t bad enough, they now have to travel to Seattle.

The Seahawks defence is back with a swagger and they have looked like their old selves for three games in a row. Holding the Eagles to fourteen points in Philadelphia is really impressive and they must be salivating at the prospect of welcoming the misfiring 49ers this week. This number should make me pause, particularly given the shortcomings of the Seahawks passing attack, but they beat the 49ers by sixteen points in San Francisco and I think this could be a very long day for the visiting team.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Cowboys @ Eagles (-3.5)

The Eagles offence got suffocated last week against the Seahawks, managing only a pitiful 139 yards of total offence from a unit that is still fifteenth by DVOA despite the difficulties they’ve had in Chip Kelley’s second year. This week they welcome the Cowboys who are coming off a sold win against the Bears, but it is only two weeks since the Eagles soundly beat the Cowboys in Dallas on Thanksgiving.

I expect Tony Romo to look better than he did in that game as he won’t be working on a short week with a back injury, but the Eagles defence has shown that it can give the Cowboys’ offence problems and the Cowboys defence has looked shaky for weeks now. This could be the perfect pick me up for the Eagles as they go from playing against the fourth best defence in the league by DVOA to the twenty-fourth.

I don’t think the game will be as lopsided as it was in Dallas, but I think the Eagles get back on track in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Saints @ Bears (+2.5)

This is just a mess of a game, and I’m sure this is not what the schedulers had in mind when they designated this game for the prime time Monday night slot before the season.

The Bears continue to struggle and have now lost receiver Brandon Marshall for the rest of the season, although they’ve not been making the best use of him up to now. The defence is a horror show and the offence has been over reliant on screens and short passing, making surprisingly little use of Matt Forte’s talents in the run game or Jay Cutlers big arm in the vertical passing game.

The problem with picking a side in this one is that the Saints are not much better, coming off a fourth home loss in a row. The Saints have only won one game in their last five and yet somehow still have a share of the lead in the NFC South. The defence has been horrible, with Rob Ryan’s vocal breakdowns on the sideline being a feature throughout the season. The Saints offence has shown flashes of its former glory and statistically is not bad, ranking in the top ten by DVOA, but it has been misfiring at crucial moments and something has not seemed quite right with Drew Brees all season.

I almost feel like I am blindly picking this game, but the Saints still have something to play for and the Bears are just horrible on defence. Meanwhile, whilst Drew Brees seems a little off, his stats are really not that much different to previous years, where as we know very well what Jay Cutler is at this point.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

The rest of the picks are coming, but as I don’t have time to get everything up I just wanted to say before the game that both Dan & I are taking the Cowboys against the Bears tonight

It suddenly occurred to me whilst setting the recording of the Thanksgiving games this morning that I couldn’t finish this blog this evening and post as games would already be in progress so I’ll present the first part now, and will follow up with the rest of the games this evening:

So rather worryingly, the current struggles I’m having finding time to maintain this blog is not having an adverse affect on my picks, in fact they seem to be improving as I’ve not only caught, but I have passed him taking a one game lead.

It will have to be another quick tour though the NFL this week, but I’m looking forward to sitting down with the three Thanksgiving games this Friday and writing up a running diary this weekend. In the mean time, let’s take a look at the games for Week 13.

Gee:      Week 12   10-5                   Overall   91-85
Dan:       Week 12   8-7                     Overall   90-86

Bears @ Lions (-7.5)

It’s not time to panic if you’re a Lions fan, but you have to be worried about the offence at this point in the season. There’s no shame in losing to the Patriots with the way that they are playing at the moment, but the offence has been struggling to move the ball for weeks and are currently ranked twenty-fourth by DVOA. The defence is still ranked first in the NFL, but with the race for the wild cards hotting up, they can’t afford to lose too many more games and could do with the offence beginning to function properly..

That said, despite their recent pair of wins, it may not be the worse time to be entertaining the Bears who had to come from behind in the second half against the woeful Buccaneers last week, having beaten the Vikings the week before. Apart from the fact that they have won their last two game 21-13, the odd thing about the Bears has been that the defence might have made a bigger improvement than the offence over the last few weeks. It seems like the Bears are trying to minimise the damage with Jay Cutler, which given that his current contract is guaranteed for over fifty millions dollars is somewhat worrying.

I’m not convinced by the Bears defence and am seriously worried about how Jay Cutler is going to play against the Lions defence so I think the Lions get back on track at home on Thanksgiving, but I’m too scared by the points to take them beating the spread.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

Eagles @ Cowboys (-2.5)

After a possible slow start, I think the next two Thanksgiving games should be great and this is my game of the day.

The Cowboys showed how good their o-line is as they came from behind to beat the Giants. I worry how long Tony Romo can keep going with the injuries he’s carrying, but I don’t think there’s a better line for him to be limping around behind than the one he’s got and with the support of DeMarco Murray in the run game he should be okay.

I’m on record as being all in on Chip Kelly and his team have the record to back that confidence, but neither of his starting quarterbacks are truly outstanding and the play of Mark Sanchez worries me. The Eagles ran out comfortable winners last week but with Sanchez throwing two interceptions to one touchdown, it was more behind their running game and another special teams touchdown than outstanding play by him.

I think this will be a close game, but in the end I just have bit more confidence in Tony Romo and that Cowboys o-line.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Seahawks @ 49ers (-0.5)

I suspect final Thursday game will be a lower scoring battle of a game.

The 49ers have been grinding out results with tough defence whilst their offence stutters through the game. They managed a pretty measly seventeen points against Washington and only scored sixteen the week before against the Giant’s despite their defence getting five interceptions in that game. However, whilst they are not making the most of what looks like a talented group on offence, they seem to know who they are and are winning games.

The Seahawks are playing a pretty similar style of football as well. I’m not sure how much of the defence’s excellent performance last week was down to the core veterans team meeting they held before the game against the Cardinals, and how much was facing Drew Stanton who doesn’t have a run game to help him. Their offence is also sputtering, with the run game working effectively but a serious dearth of talent at receiver meaning the passing game is seriously underpowered.

This is going to be a real throw back brawl of a game. These two teams have split their games recently with the home team winning and so in a pick’em game I’m backing the home team.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers.
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Well now it’s time for weekend games in part 2, and let’s hope I do a little better than the disastrous 0-3 I went yesterday:

Browns @ Bills (-1.5)

I do not know what to do with this game. The Bills had to play in Detroit last week thanks to the snow, didn’t practice for two days, and suddenly Kyle Orton looks like a competent quarterback again. They managed to score thirty-eight points against the Jets having gone seven consecutive quarters without scoring a touchdown in the two previous games. The caveat however, is that they scored forty-three points against the Jest in week eight so I suggest we don’t get too excited yet.

The Browns are keeping themselves in the uber-competitive AFC North race despite Brian Hoyer’s patchy play over the last couple of weeks. It is a sign of Josh Gordon’s playing ability that in his first game back from suspension he caught eight balls for 120 yards despite Hoyer missing him more than once,

This is another really close game, but I just have more faith in the team getting results despite their quarterback’s patchy play, than the team whose quarterback unexpectedly looked competent in his last game, against the Jets…

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Bengals @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

The Buccaneers have shown a few glimpses in recent weeks despite going back to starting Josh McCown at quarterback, which I do not understand given that there’s no hope of them making the playoffs even if they are only two games of the lead in the putrid NFC South. However, Mike Evans has demonstrated that he is right up there with any of the other receivers from this amazing rookie class. Imagine what he could do if they had an elite quarterback.

The Bengals seem to have found their identity again. Not only has the return of Rey Maualuga helped the balance of the linebackers, but Domata Peko is playing better and I’ve seen flashes of the old brilliance from Geno Atkins playing next to him. On offence, I was impressed how quiet the o-line kept JJ Watt despite losing Andre Smith in the second quarter to a tricep injury. Unfortunately, Smith is now done for the season and I’m not sure how I am going to cope watching Marshall Newhouse for the rest of the season, but Kevin Zeitler is playing really well at right guard so hopefully things work out.

I’m worried about picking the Bengals to win a third road game, but I think they have to win this one with games against the Browns, the Steelers twice, and the Broncos coming up.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Titans @ Texans (-6.5)

The Texans have lost Ryan Mallet to a torn pectoral, which I have heard both that he did it in warm-ups, and during he second quarter, either way this may explain the troubles that the Texans had on offence with their only touchdown coming from a pick-six interceptions. The defence was good, but I though JJ Watt was relatively quiet apart from an impressive pass tip and the only time I remember hearing Clowney’s name was him jumping offside.

That said, although there are signs that Zack Mettenberger might be their quarterback of the future, the Titans are still not a good team and they got comprehensively beaten by the Eagles last week.

The Texans are not making the playoffs so they may be better of trying their rookie quarterback Tom Savage to see what they have rather than go back to Ryan Fitzpatrick, but either way I think they will beat the Titans. However, the points make me worry and so I think I’m going to brave the Titans one more time, this could end badly.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Semi-Pros @ Colts (-9.5)

This is a lot of points given how the Colts have been a little up and down over the last few weeks. The Patriots demonstrated that they have a blue print to beat the Colts and their recovery win against the Jaguars was not pretty. However, this could be the game for them to get back on track.

On last week’s Tuesday Morning Football I heard afan repeatedly refer to their team as the Washington semi-professional football team, and given the mess they seem to be in, I am borrowing it for the rest of the season, although a little shortened. With the benching of Richard Griffin the third, the Semi-Pros are sitting a player they gave up two first round picks and a second round pick to get. I generally dislike trading up in the draft, and I don’t think you should ever mortgage future first round picks, there’s too much risk and you hurt the depth of your team in the long run. I am not going to write of RG3, but the break down with the head coach is pretty horrible and there doesn’t’ seem to be a lot of forward planning going on here. I don’t see Colt McCoy being the answer given the mess they are in.

What worries me is that there may well be a bounce back by the Semi-Pros this week just out of sheer relief and RG3 has been so bad. Part of me wants to pick them, but I would rather kick myself for being cautious than place any faith in the team from Washington.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Raiders @ Rams (-7.5)

The Rams covered the line in a tight loss to the Chargers, and demonstrated that they are a quarterback away from really competing as a team. Shaun Hill demonstrated he wasn’t that player losing a fumble for a touchdown, and being intercepted twice, including one in the red zone. The defence has really found its identity but that will only get them so far.

The Raiders finally got their win, and looked reasonably okay doing it. I liked the performance of their young linebacker unit barring the excessive celebrating, and they have two foundation pieces in Khalil Mack and Derek Carr

That said, I don’t think the Raiders are winning this game in Saint Louis, but I don’t see them being blown out either.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Panthers @ Vikings (-2.5)

It has been a hard season for the Vikings, who have the solid defence you would expect from a team coached by Mike Zimmer, but are not clicking on offence yet. I get the feeling that they are a season away from being good and it will be interesting to see how they kick on next season. They were able to keep the game close against the Packers last week and I don’t see them having a problem with visiting Panthers this weekend despite only having won one more game.

The Panthers are on a horrible run of form, not having won since week five and should have lost against the Bengals in week six. It feel like nothing is working quite right for them at the moment. The lack of pass rush and a horrible secondary is too much for even Luke Kuechly to overcome on defence, whilst the debate is ongoing about Cam Newton’s ability to lead in adversity and how hurt he may or may not be. They have had two weeks to prepare for this game, but I don’t see it as the one they are going break their losing streak in.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Saints @ Steelers (-3.5)

There was a time when you knew what you were getting with the Steelers. A tough defence, smash mouth football, ten or eleven wins, and a good run in the playoffs. That has not been the case over recent years and this season they have taken inconsistency to new heights and depths. They have scored fifty-one points against the Colts yet lost to the Buccaneers and the Jets. They got a close win against the Titans on Monday night football ahead of their week twelve bye, maintaining Dick LeBeau’s great record against rookie quarterbacks, and losing me a pick.

This week the Steelers welcome the Saints, who have just lost an unthinkable three straight games at home. Neither side of the ball is playing well, nor does their share of the lead in the NFC South hide the fact that they are not a good team. The Saints have not travelled well in recent years and I don’t expect them to start this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Giants @ Jaguars (+2.5)

Neither of these team are very good. The Jaguars continue to play tough and lose, whilst the Giants played a little better last week.

The only other thing I want to write about is Odell Beckham Jr’s amazing catch last week against the Cowboys. How he managed to arch his back and reel that ball in using one hand I shall never know. It is that rare thing, a highlight that you can keep watching. This why we love football and he’s pretty much the only reason to watch this game unless you are a fan of one of these teams. This could a chance for the Jaguars to get that second win, but my heart won’t let me pick against Beckham for at least another week. This is a terrible way to pick games…

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants (Luckily, Dan agrees with me on this one)

Chargers @ Ravens (-5.5)

The Ravens were the latest team to go to New Orleans and get a win. Their secondary may not look as strong as we are used to, but they got a turnover and were good enough. The offence has slowed down compared to the start of the season, but they still have lots of talent and this is a good home team.

The Chargers managed to keep themselves in the playoff hunt with a win last week, and I’m sure that they were grateful for the return of running back Ryan Mathews. This is a team that have suffered a lot of injuries and I’m not sure if they can hold themselves together for the remainder of the season. Add to that the trip across country to Baltimore and I don’t see them winning this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Cardinals @ Falcons (+2.5)

I didn’t want to pick against the Cardinals last week, but I’m not surprised that they lost the game. The Seahawks in Seattle were too much for them to deal with, but they are still a well coached team that has a really good defence. The Falcons lost the game having played better, but Mike Smith’s time management was not the best at the end of the game. I was impressed how well the Falcons played considering the rest of their season so far, but I don’t see them having the same kind of success this week. I think the Cardinals get back on track.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Patriots @ Packers (-3.5)

This is the game of the weekend. Both teams are playing great football and this really could be a preview of the Super Bowl.

The Packers have been playing peerless football at Lambeau Field this year, with Aaron Rodgers throwing no interceptions all season at home (he’s only had three all year) and the defence has really been standing up over recent weeks.

After a rough start to the season, the Patriots have played themselves into great form, with Bill Belichick and his staff changing their play style to exploit their opponent from week to week.

I’m taking the Patriots as I’m getting points, but I wouldn’t be surprised by any result in what should be a fabulous game.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Broncos @ Chiefs (+1.5)

This should be a really good divisional game.

The Chiefs are coming off a very disappointing loss to the Raiders, that could cost them dear. I’ve been writing all season about how solid the Chiefs are, and for the most part they have been, but they now have two really bad losses and in a tight playoff race losing to the Raiders and Titans could really cost them. They have the tools on defence, particularly with Justin Houston leading the league in sacks, to cause the Broncos problems, but I don’t think they have the tools to manufacture the points they need against the Broncos’ defence.

The Broncos have had a bit of a wobble thanks to some injuries, and in particular some problems with their offensive line. However, they found a way to come back against the Dolphins and get the win whilst only giving up a sack against the excellent Dolphins defence. I think that will have enough to win this game despite travelling to Arrowhead Stadium, but I’d be lying if I said I hadn’t gone back and forth a number of times on this one. Still, I’m sticking with the Broncos. I think…

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Dolphins @ Jets (+5.5)

The Dolphins are a good team that just needs to get both sides of the ball working at the same time to get a marquee win. In their close loss to the Broncos, Ryan Tannehill played well again but the defence that has been so strong can’t give up twenty-two points in the final quarter if they are going to win games. That said, they are travelling to the Jets who managed a measly three points last week against the Bills. The Bills defensive line is one of the best in the league, and they wreaked havoc against the Jets, injuring an ineffective Michael Vick so Geno Smith returns as starter. I get the feeling everyone on the Jets can’t wait until the end of this horrid season.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

It suddenly occurred to me whilst setting the recording of the Thanksgiving games this morning that I couldn’t finish this blog this evening and post as games would already be in progress, so I am posting the first part now, and will follow up with the rest of the games this evening:

So rather worryingly, the current struggles I’m having finding time to maintain this blog is not having an adverse affect on my picks, in fact they seem to be improving as I’ve not only caught, but I have passed him taking a one game lead.

It will have to be another quick tour though the NFL this week, but I’m looking forward to sitting down with the three Thanksgiving games this Friday and writing up a running diary this weekend. In the mean time, let’s take a look at the games for Week 13.

Gee:      Week 12   10-5                   Overall   91-85
Dan:      Week 12   8-7                     Overall   90-86

Bears @ Lions (-7.5)

It’s not time to panic if you’re a Lions fan, but you have to be worried about the offence at this point in the season. There’s no shame in losing to the Patriots with the way that they are playing at the moment, but the offence has been struggling to move the ball for weeks and are currently ranked twenty-fourth by DVOA. The defence is still ranked first in the NFL, but with the race for the wild cards hotting up, they can’t afford to lose too many more games and could do with the offence beginning to function properly..

That said, despite their recent pair of wins, it may not be the worse time to be entertaining the Bears who had to come from behind in the second half against the woeful Buccaneers last week, having beaten the Vikings the week before. Apart from the fact that they have won their last two game 21-13, the odd thing about the Bears has been that the defence might have made a bigger improvement than the offence over the last few weeks. It seems like the Bears are trying to minimise the damage with Jay Cutler, which given that his current contract is guaranteed for over fifty millions dollars is somewhat worrying.

I’m not convinced by the Bears defence and am seriously worried about how Jay Cutler is going to play against the Lions defence so I think the Lions get back on track at home on Thanksgiving, but I’m too scared by the points to take them beating the spread.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

Eagles @ Cowboys (-2.5)

After a possible slow start, I think the next two Thanksgiving games should be great and this is my game of the day.

The Cowboys showed how good their o-line is as they came from behind to beat the Giants. I worry how long Tony Romo can keep going with the injuries he’s carrying, but I don’t think there’s a better line for him to be limping around behind than the one he’s got and with the support of DeMarco Murray in the run game he should be okay.

I’m on record as being all in on Chip Kelly and his team have the record to back that confidence, but neither of his starting quarterbacks are truly outstanding and the play of Mark Sanchez worries me. The Eagles ran out comfortable winners last week but with Sanchez throwing two interceptions to one touchdown, it was more behind their running game and another special teams touchdown than outstanding play by him.

I think this will be a close game, but in the end I just have bit more confidence in Tony Romo and that Cowboys o-line.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Seahawks @ 49ers (-0.5)

I suspect final Thursday game will be a lower scoring battle of a game.

The 49ers have been grinding out results with tough defence whilst their offence stutters through the game. They managed a pretty measly seventeen points against Washington and only scored sixteen the week before against the Giant’s despite their defence getting five interceptions in that game. However, whilst they are not making the most of what looks like a talented group on offence, they seem to know who they are and are winning games.

The Seahawks are playing a pretty similar style of football as well. I’m not sure how much of the defence’s excellent performance last week was down to the core veterans team meeting they held before the game against the Cardinals, and how much was facing Drew Stanton who doesn’t have a run game to help him. Their offence is also sputtering, with the run game working effectively but a serious dearth of talent at receiver meaning the passing game is seriously underpowered.

This is going to be a real throw back brawl of a game. These two teams have split their games recently with the home team winning and so in a pick’em game I’m backing the home team.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers.
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Thanks to various non-football issues I am scrambling to keep blogs coming at the moment, and hence the missed write up of the Bills at Dolphins game. Dan and I had a rough week, getting six and five picks right respectively, so I have now pulled within one game of Dan.

Looking back at my results from last week, it confirms that I think I am doing a bad job of taking who is away or at home into account when considering the line. I don’t mind getting caught out by games like the Rams beating the Broncos or the Buccaneers beating Washington as who would have predicted that. However, if I’d though a little more about where the game was being played when picking against the Dolphins and Packers at home, then I would have probably picked differently. In fairness, I was worried about the Eagles pick from Friday, when listening to various podcasts it suddenly dawned on me that I had backed Mark Sanchez over Aron Rodgers, that’s ground for losing your blog straight away!

Anyway, I’m going to run through the games with this in mind, and see if I can keep the pressure up on Dan as I try to get back on par with him.

Gee:      Week 11   6-8                     Overall   81-80
Dan:       Week 11   5-9                     Overall   82-79

Chiefs @ Raiders (+7.5)

The Raiders continue to play tough and lose. It was nice to see Khalil Mack get his first sack as a pro, but this is all small comfort for a team who now have not won a competitive game for a year. I keep saying that they’re not going to go the whole season without a win, but once again this is not the week. The Chiefs continue to march on and play well. I think they will win this game, but after a bruising encounter against the Seahawks, I wonder if they will win by this much.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Browns @ Falcons (-3.5)

The Browns are not handling conference wins well, following up a second win over an AFC North opponent by losing a second time. They’re getting Josh Gordon back this week, and I think they will bounce back against the Falcons. Somehow in the NFC South, a 4-6 record is good enough to give you a share in the lead of the division, but wins against the awful Buccaneers and the collapsing Panthers hardly inspires confidence. They’ve traditionally had a good home record, but I still worry about the amount of talent they’ve lost on the o-line.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Jets @ Bills (-4.5)

That was a tough loss for the Bills. Their defence is really good, and their d-line is playing brilliantly, but the offense just can’t get keep them in games. They have now gone seven consecutive quarters without scoring a touchdown. That said, they put forty-three points on the Jets in Week eight so this might be the game to get back into scoring ways. The Jets however may have other ideas, having finally got their second win of the season before going into the bye. However, they are still short of talent and I’m not convinced that Michael Vick is the answer, so I’m backing the Bills.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Buccaneers @ Bears (-5.5)

The Buccaneers won by twenty points last week, taking their win total for the season to two. They are not a good team, and I think their results speak to just how dysfunctional the Washington team are. The Bears finally broke out of their slump, getting a performance from their offence reminiscent of what we were expecting at the beginning of the season. I don’t think this will be enough to turn their season round, but they should have more than enough for the Buccaneers.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

Bengals @ Texans (-1.5)

I lost a game last week because I angered the football gods by picking against one of their own, JJ Watt, a 3-4 defensive end who catches touchdown passes like the tight-end he was in college. However, I’m not totally convinced by them and the Bengals began to look like themselves again last week. Their run stopping problems have had a lot to do with the missed games by their linebackers Rey Maualuga and Vontaze Burfict, and the return of Maualuga last week seems to have made a difference. This could be the pick of a hopeful fan, but I’m sticking by the Bengals this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Lions @ Patriots (-6.5)

The Lions fell short last week against the team that has the best record in the NFL. Their defence is still playing well, but their offence is struggling. I think that they are still a good team, but this is not the week for them to bounce back. The Patriots keep rolling, and it will be interesting to see what game plan Belichick and his staff will come up with this week. I don’t think we’ll see another two hundred yard game from Jonas Gray, but it was a great story for the running back who was on the practice squad only a few weeks ago.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Packers @ Vikings (+9.5)

The Packers are one of the scariest teams in the league right now, and I still can’t believe I backed Sanchez over Rodgers, even getting points. It appears that the experiment with Clay Mathews playing middle linebackers on early downs is here to stay, and it appears to be working. This is a lot of points, but given what the Packers have done to the Eagles and Bears over the last couple of weeks, I don’t see them having a problem. The Vikings are a solid team, with a young quarterback that has potential, and a good defence, but they don’t have enough for this one, even at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Titans @ Eagles (-11.5)

The Eagles are a good team that ran into a buzz saw last week. There aren’t too many teams in the league that can do that to them, but the points they are giving in this game baffles me. The Titans ran the Steelers close last week, with Zach Mettenberger keeping them in the game. I don’t think they will win the game, but I’m worried enough by the points that I think they will cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Jaguars @ Colts (-13.5)

This number makes me want to pick the Jaguars. However, despite the horrible record that the Colts have against the Patriots with Andrew Luck as their quarterback, he is such a good player that I have to go against my first instinct. This is probably the week where picking the Jaguars as a road underdog finally pays off, but I’ve been bitten too many times this season already.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Rams @ Chargers (-5.5)

The Chargers got their win, but weren’t exactly convincing against the Raiders, whilst Philip Rivers  has possibly picked up an injury to add to the large number the Chargers already have. This might be an over reaction, but the Rams defence has looked really good for a couple of weeks now. Their front seven is finally beginning to play as we expected before the season and they got enough out of their offence led by Shaun Hill to beat the Broncos. I’ve been troubled by these 5.5 lines a lot this season, but I fancy the Rams to at least cover in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Cardinals @ Seahawks (-6.5)

The Seahawks are just not the team they were last year, and whilst they should not be underestimated, between the issues with moving the ball through the air on offence and the defence just not being as dominant, I can’t back them to win this game. The Cardinals have the best record in Football thanks to a defence that is playing well and great coaching. I reluctantly picked against them last week, but I’m not making the same mistake twice, even if they are travelling to Seattle.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Dolphins @ Broncos (-7.5)

There are some chinks in the armour showing for the Broncos, particularly last week with Peyton Manning losing both Julius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders during the game. He doesn’t have that much support from the run game, so he could ill afford to lose two of his favourite targets, plus the Broncos seem to be having a difficult time with their o-line. This is not a great time for them to be facing the Dolphins with their excellent d-line. The Dolphins pulled away in the second half of last week’s game, and whilst there is plenty of room for Tannehill to develop, he does appear to be moving the ball much better these days. I am really not sure if the Dolphins have enough to beat the Broncos, but I don’t see them being beaten by eight either.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Washington @ 49ers (-8.5)

Things seem to be going seriously awry in Washington. It is not often that you see a head coach be as blunt about his quarterback’s deficiencies as Jay Gruden was this week,,the day after Richard Griffin gave a demonstration on precisely how not to do a press conference. Having lost by twenty points to the Buccaneers, they now have to travel across the country to San Francisco and I do not see this going well. Despite defensive injuries, an offence that is still misfiring, and the drama surrounding their coach, the 49ers have dragged themselves back into the playoff hunt. It is worrying that they got five interceptions against the Giants, but only won the game 16-10, yet I think that they will cover in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Cowboys @ Giants (+3.5)

The Cowboys needed the bye to try to get Tony Romo healthy and to give DeMarco Murray a much deserved rest. The Giant’s are playing horribly right now, and I can’t see them winning this game despite how good Odell Beckham has looked over the last few weeks.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Ravens @ Saints (-3.5)

The Saints have started blitzing again on defence, and have started losing too. The offence still doesn’t look right and they could ill afford to lose Brandin Cooks for the season to a broken thumb. It is a testament to the putrid state of the NFC South that their 4-6 record gives them a share of the division lead. The Ravens have been struggling a little since losing cornerback Jimmy Smith, but before the bye they ran up a comfortable win against the Titans. They have to be worried about their 2-3 divisional record, but this appears to be as good a time as any to play the Saints in New Orleans given their recent record.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Saints