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The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 41

29 Sunday Jan 2017

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With Championship week now just a memory, we’re left with just one game to go in the 2016 season. We take a look back at the AFC and NFC Championship games to see how the Falcons and the Patriots made it to the ‘Bowl. We also talk about the current state of the Quarterback and just where we see potential MVP Matt Ryan fitting in the grand scheme of things. And what will Antonio Brown be streaming on Facebook next?! All that and more this week on The Wrong Football Podcast!

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 41

Fallen at the Final Hurdle

29 Sunday Jan 2017

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It’s that strange time of year when the excitement builds towards the Super Bowl and finding out who will be crowned champions, yet we are running out of games. Even sticking to my routine of watching coaching tape of the Super Bowl, there is still only one game left. For many their thoughts are turning to the offseason and the hope of training camp or the joy/worry of draft season. However, I will say goodbye to the two teams who fell just short of the Super Bowl in a pair of noncompetitive conference championship games.

The Green Bay Packers came into the conference championship on a scorching run of form, but sadly fell well short of the Atlanta Falcons, particularly when things fell apart for them in the first half. The Falcons game started the game strongly on offence, able to move the ball and scored on eight of their first nine drafts. However, things could have been different for the Packers if the usually reliable Mason Crosby hadn’t missed a field goal and Aaron Ripkowski hadn’t fumbled the ball as he rumbled towards the Falcons’ twenty yard down. Instead of tying the game, they Packers fell seventeen points behind and they simply were not able to stop falcons or get enough points to get themselves back in the game.

It was a tough way for the Packers to finish their season, which is how it goes for all but one team in the NFL, but this was your archetypal one game too far for them. Too many injuries and too much being asked of Aaron Rodgers. They will go into an offseason of discontent. I’m sure the questions around their defensive coordinator Dom Capers and GM Ted Thompson will resurface, and Rodgers himself has talked about the team needing more urgency next year. There are reasonable questions about whether the Packers are getting the most out of their super star quarterback with the team they are surrounding him with. It would not take a great defence to help get him to the Super Bowl, and improvements to the offensive scheme and the run game would also help. However, if it were not for the Patriots, the idea that a team could compete every year would not be so strong. The problem for the Packers whilst they focus on being a draft and develop team is that they will rarely get a high draft pick with their level of success. There are plenty of players to be found in the draft, but most teams need a high first round pick to acquire that top level of talent. I certainly would not advocate for a strong push in free agency either, but given the success of free agents like Julius Peppers and Jared Cook it would seem that Thompson could afford to add more players via this route if he is capable of finding them.

In the end you would expect the Packers to competitive next year, but there is plenty of work to be done in the offseason.

The Pittsburgh Steelers did what most teams do when the travel to Foxborough and lost to the New England Patriots. They never really got on terms with the Patriots with their offence hampered by the first quarter loss of Le’Veon Bell to a groin injury, whilst the defence played a zone scheme that Tom Brady picked apart as he threw for three hundred and eighty-four yards. There have been a lot of question about the game plan in the following days with players claiming they weren’t ready for the Patriots to play up-tempo or that the Pats hadn’t run a flea flicker this year when they did against Baltimore in week fourteen.

There are a lot of positives about the way the Steelers run their operation and they clearly have a talent for spotting receivers, but they have had more than their share of questionable character guys cause them problems recently. This season Martavis Bryant missed the year due to falling foul of the league’s drug policy, Le’Veon Bell missed three games at the start of the season due to missing drug tests, meanwhile the team had to answer question all week about Antonio Brown live streaming Mike Tomlin’s post game locker room speech. They go into the offseason with Ben Roethlisberger questioning if he will play next season, although most suspect the thirty-four year old quarterback will come back The Steelers will need to find Roethlisberger some more receivers to complement Brown, as there were too many dropped passes although if Bryant can get back on the field and stay there that would help. They also can’t allow them to be so reliant on Le’Veon Bell, as talented as he is if you look at the games missed through injury or suspension you cannot afford for him to account for such a large part of your offence. On defence you have to think that whilst James Harrison is coming back for another year, the Steelers will need a long term replacement for him to play on the other side to Bud Dupree.

It doesn’t feel like there is a huge overhaul needed, and the Steelers are one of the most stable franchises in the league, but I do wonder if at some point some of the questions around the locker room, and or coaching might lead to some kind of adjustment. It certainly won’t be anything spectacular, but it is worth keeping an eye on.

Conference Championship Previews

22 Sunday Jan 2017

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It is hardly surprising that the conference championship games look really good, but they have a lot to live up to after the game Dallas and Green Bay put on last week.

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons don’t just have a good offence, they have one that has produced numbers up there with some of the best there have been. You might not see Matt Ryan making the kind of amazingly athletic throws that Aaron Rodgers has made look routine over recent weeks, but he is in firm control of an offence that allows him to distribute the ball to a wide range of options in the passing game, whilst Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman have proved themselves to be a highly effective combination out of the back field. It is hardly a surprise to see the coordinator behind such a season be sought after as a head coach, but fans in Atlanta will be hoping that this hasn’t been too much of a distraction for Kyle Shanahan as he prepares for this game. The Falcons are going up against a Packers defence that has been injured for a lot of the season, and they will be hoping to do enough to allow their offence to keep up with the Falcons. The secondary will have to work really hard to keep up with the Falcons’ offence and this could be a game too far for them.

The Packers have ridden the red hot play of Aaron Rodgers over the back end of the season and into the playoffs. The injuries at running back have meant that Rodgers is carrying this team with his arm, but he has found the right balance of extending plays in the pocket and playing within the structure of the offence to keep the Packers winning. That said, he now has receivers injured and it is hard not to think that Jordy Nelson will be limited by his rib injuries even if he does make the field in this game. The Falcons defence has not been good this season, but they have had enough pass rush to take advantage of the leads they often play with to make life difficult for the opposition, even if the majority of their sacks are accounted for by Vic Beasley who led the league through the regular season.

This could very well be a spectacular shoot out, but I do wonder if the injuries that the Packers are accruing could just sink them despite Rodgers extraordinary play. I certainly wouldn’t count out the Falcons and I’m really looking forward to this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots

This is the sixth year in a row that the Patriots have made the conference championship game in a display of remarkable consistency. However, they are coming into this game off the back of a rocky performance that saw Tom Brady rattled a little and double his interception tally for the year with a pair of interceptions to go with the two he threw in the regular season. That said, it is hard not to expect continued excellent play from Brady who may not have ever made the spectacular kinds of plays that Rodgers is capable of, but runs his offence with complete mastery of the system. A system that changes week to week depending on how they choose to attack the defence they are facing. The Steelers defence will pose a serious test as they have enough experience not to be overawed by the situation and have been playing incredibly well over the back end of the season and into the playoffs. Their outside linebackers Bud Dupree and James Harrison have been getting pressure and causing problems, whilst inside backers Timmons and Shazier have looked good in the middle, and you can see the Steelers mimicking the up the central pressure the Texans used last week to get pressure on Brady.

If the defence of the Steelers have come together, then the offence has been a little off this season. The passing game has not been what we have come to expect over recent seasons despite Antonio Brown still being one of the premier receivers in the game. The Steelers have responded to this by handing the ball to Le’Veon Bell more in a tactic that has paid off big time. The patient runner can eat up the clock whilst racking up the yards, and this tactic not only makes the most sense for moving the ball for the Steelers in this game, but it also could limit the time Brady has on the field, which is no bad thing. The New England defence has not been spectacular by numbers, except they lead the league in scoring defence, which is one those key stats that really does help you win football games. They don’t really have a lot of big name players as far as the league is concerned, with Devin McCourty the only Pro Bowl selection, but they are schemed very well each week and you can see them planning to stop the run, bracket Antonio Brown, and daring the other Steelers to beat them.

The Steelers very definitely have a template that can beat the Patriots and will not be intimidated by going into New England. This may not be the offensive spectacle that the earlier game will likely be, but I see this as a very competitive game that could go either way. As football fans, what else could want from the conference championship games?

Goodbye to the Disappointed Divisional Teams

22 Sunday Jan 2017

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We have said goodbye to four more teams, and are only three games that matter away from the end of the season. Of course our thoughts turn towards the conference championship games this weekend, but before we consider them fully let us take a moment to look at the state of the four departed and consider what was a truly spectacular game on Sunday.

The early game saw the Seattle Seahawks finally finish a difficult down year for them that still netted them a division title and a playoff win. They started the game off strongly, moving the ball on their first drive and scoring a touchdown to take an early lead that they held onto until around two thirds of the way through second quarter and were unable to reclaim. The Seahawk’s offence was let down by its structural flaw in the offensive line, and so they were unable to keep up with the Atlanta Falcons superb offence. It is not too often that you see a guard step on his quarterback’s foot and cost his team a safety. The Seahawks managed to run for one hundred yards, but with only twenty-one carries they were not as committed to it as the previous week, and they were unable to do enough through the air to make up for it although both Doug Baldwin and Paul Richardson had respectable days in gaining eighty yards each. However, combine the problems on offence with a defence that was missing Earl Thomas at safety and there were too many problems to overcome.

The Seahawks should have Thomas back next year, but their focus should be improving the offensive line. The problem is that this was the case last season so while they appear to have the cap space to address this, you can’t honestly predict if they will or not address their offensive line this offseason. Still, you would expect the Seahawks to be competitive again next season and I will be curious to see how Pete Caroll approaches next season with chatter already surfacing that he will be addressing some aspect of his player’s behaviour that adversely affected the team this years. I can’t see him changing completely, but as ever I look forward to seeing what happens in Seattle.

The second game on Sunday was unsurprising in its result, and the Patriots still covered the huge line in beating the Houston Texans, but the actual game did not exactly flow how many predicted. The Texans offence struggled, and benefitted from some rare mistakes from the Patriots to take advantage of good field position. However, the problems with Brock Osweiler’s play at quarterback still continued to hamper this team’s efforts and this surely will be a big focus in the offseason. There is some work to do on the defensive side of the ball, but the return of JJ Watt to play alongside Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney could produce a terrifying front seven and a defence that could be as scary as any in the league. Even without Watt they were able to scheme pressure up the middle and rattle Tom Brady, even if Brady was able to find a way to grind out the game as he usually does.

The Texans could be a really good team, but they have to address the quarterback problem. This is something of a surprise given that Bill O’Brien is an offensive minded head coach who has a reputation as a quarterback whisperer, but he can only coach the players he is given. He seemed to learn the lesson of last season and so stuck with Osweiler until he just couldn’t any more, but it is worrying that receiver DeAndre Hopkins had a better season with the rotating cast of quarterbacks that were throwing him the ball last season than with Osweiler and Savage this. If they can get the right balance on offence then this team could take a real step forward, but with their recent history who knows if they will be able to manage it.

The first game on Sunday was one of the best of the season and certainly the highlight of the playoffs to date. What started as a dominating performance by the Green Bay Packers, which saw them gain a 21-3 lead by half way through the second quarter ended in a tight contest that saw three fifty plus yard field goals in the last two minutes.

The Cowboys success this year was based up their two stellar rookies performing behind their excellent offensive line. Thrust from developmental backup to opening day starting quarterback by Tony Romo’s preseason fractured vertebrae, Dak Prescott has been remarkably calm and safe with the ball from the get go and as the season progressed so did his range of passing. Prescott’s ability to run the ball also complements rookie running back sensation Ezekiel Elliott and the pair of them led the Cobwoys to the playoffs. They were slow starters, which could very well be attributed to nerves, but Elliott ran for one hundred and twenty-five yards whilst Prescott threw for over three hundred. There is no shame in falling short against the Packers, particularly as it took some remarkable play for Aaron Rodgers and ridiculously difficult catch by Jared Cook to setup the winning field goal.

The Cowboys defence has struggled to keep up with the performance of the offence, and whilst they were solid enough in overall DVOA ranking at seventeen, they have struggled to rush the passer and they will need to address this side of the ball in the offseason to improve. It will be disappointing to go 13-3 and not get a playoff win, but this team is a very good position to continue its success next year, and if they continue to draft as strongly as they have in recent years then I see no reason bar injury that they won’t do so. Given how well the pick of Elliott has worked out, I will be giving them a bigger benefit of the doubt when draft time rolls round!

The final game of the weekend saw a second team depart the playoffs without a win after a bye week when the Kansas City Chiefs were beaten by the Pittsburgh Steelers despite scoring two touchdowns to the Steelers’ zero.

The Chiefs have been a very good regular season team over the last two years, but have struggled to make this really count with a deep playoff run. This season’s team was a very balanced matchup of offence and defence with very good special teams. However, there were flaws in this team that came back to bite them in this game. The Chiefs defence has been solid this year, but they have been very reliant on turnovers and only managed one in this game. However, despite having a poor rushing defence and giving up one hundred and seventy yards on the ground to Le’Veon Bell, the Chiefs defence limited the Steelers to six field goals and so it was not the defence that cost the Chiefs this game.

The Chiefs have relied on a speed and big plays to supplement their offence, and the Steelers made a point of kicking away from Tyreek Hill to negate his return ability on special teams and their defence was able to limit the Chiefs’ offence for large stretches of the game. Whilst the Steelers racked up nearly four hundred yards of the offence, the Chiefs were only able to amass a little under two hundred and thirty and this was their real problem. Their offence, based as it is on trickery and speed was unable to move the ball consistently enough to win against the Steelers.

Moving into next season, the Chiefs will likely to be just as consistent again, but it seems they will need to find some extra level if they are to take the next step. Shoring up a porous run defence will go a long way to helping that side of the ball, whilst making the offence more consistent will help the other side. A more consistent run game could be found simply from their running backs being healthier, but continuing the improvements to the offensive line would help as well. However, there are already questions being asked about whether Alex Smith is capable of the level of play required to win big in the playoffs. Given some of the names that have graced the Super Bowl that might be a little over the top, but the era defining defences that are needed to carry such quarterbacks far into the playoffs are not easy to come by, and it is not hard to see the Chiefs drafting a quarterback to develop behind a thirty-two year old Smith.

Sunday Divisional Games

15 Sunday Jan 2017

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Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboy lost Tony Romo in pre-season to a fractured vertebrae, and rookie quarterback Dak Prescott stepped into the void and looked comfortable from the get go. Operating behind what is widely regarded as the best offensive line in the league he and fellow rookie Ezekiel Elliott helped the Cowboys get the number one seed behind their stellar play. As the season went on Prescott was able to increase his grasp of the offence and with a combination of the way Elliott ran the ball and Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and Cole Beasley as receiving options, the Cowboys are formidable opponents for the Packers in this game. However, whilst the offence stands every chance of moving the ball on the Packers, the defence has been more of an issue. They do not have the pass rush of the similarly constructed Falcons, but do rank better by overall defensive DVOA. However, they face a really tough matchup in the Packers offence

The Packers come into this game as one of the hottest teams in the NFL having turned a 4-6 record into a 10-6 division win and running out easy winners against the Giants last week. The defence has been battling injuries in the secondary for most of the season, and although they were ranked number one against the run at one point, are another unit in the playoffs that ranks a fair bit worse than their offence. The offence lost Jordy Nelson early last week who will not make this game due to his fractured ribs, but Aaron Rodgers has found his rhythm with his receiving group during this win streak and so will remain dangerous in the passing game. Rodgers has an uncanny ability to move and keep a play alive and is back to throwing receivers open and looking is looking like the best quarterback in the league.

This is not a game I want to predict, the Cowboys can likely dominate the time of possession with the run game and protect their defence, which has been the game plan for most of the season, but Rodgers does not need a lot of opportunities to produce points. This could very well be game of the week, and I for one am heartily looking forward to it.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have been quietly racking up the regular season wins for a season and a half now, and welcome the Steelers to the loudest outdoor stadium in the league.

A lot of jokes have been made about Andy Reid’s clock management over the years, but he is an incredibly good coach whose football teams have won a lot of games. His quarterback has the reputation of a game manager, but Alex Smith gets the job done and is capable of spreading the ball around as required as well as moving the ball with his feet. The Chiefs’ leading receiver this year was Travis Kelce, who will be going up against a defence ranked thirteenth in the league against tight ends by DVOA. However, the emergence of Tyreek Hill as a big player receiver as well as special teams returner has added another dimension to the Chiefs, but he is not the only speed option they have on offence. The Chiefs’ defence has been good rather than outstanding, and has missed Justin Houston to injury for much of the year, although Houston has flashed when he did get on the field and the Chiefs will hope that he plays on Sunday.

The Steelers got an easy win against the Dolphins last week as Antonio Brown stole the game in the first quarter. They will expect that Le’Veon Bell will be able to rack up the runs against a rush defence that ranked twenty-sixth in the league against the run by DVOA, and that could be enough to win them the game with the way Bell has been playing this season. He has needed to be this good as Ben Roethlisberger has struggled at times, and the quarterback left the stadium in a walking boot last week but will be playing this week. The Steelers’ defence played very well against the Dolphins, with the seemingly ageless James Harrison making his presence felt along with the other Steelers linebackers. This is not the same style of defence as in recent years, and they started the year struggling a little, but finished the year just outside the top ten by DVOA and have been very solid in their new cover 2 look.

This is another game that is hard to predict as both teams have been competitive all year, but if feels like the Chiefs have been more consistent all year and are home so I would give them the edge, but this feels like a second toss up game.

Saturday Divisional Games

14 Saturday Jan 2017

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Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons

The injury to Earl Thomas robbed us of the chance to see a full strength Seattle defence go up against the number one ranked offence by DVOA in the league, but this should still be a fascinating contest.

The Falcons have the options on offence, and the players to challenge Seattle down the seams and see if they find a weakness in the secondary without Thomas patrolling the rear of the defence. Their offence has been in great shape all year, moving away on the reliance on Julio Jones to spread the ball around a number of receivers and the combination of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman have caused many teams problems out of the backfield. They are a team that run more traditional sets with a fullback than almost any other team in the league, and I am looking forward to seeing how Kyle Shanahan plans to attach the Seahawks defence. The Atlanta defence has pretty ordinary for most of the season, but Vic Beasley led the lead in sacks and with the offence playing so well, they only have to do so much to keep the Falcons in the game.

I was impressed by the the Seahawks renewed commitment to the run last week, which helped their offensive line play better and sparked an improved performance. Against a defence that ranks twenty-ninth in rush defence by DVOA this might help the Seahawks limit the time the Falcons offence has on the field, but given the problems they’ve had with the offensive line you could see Vic Beasley getting pressure on Russel Wilson. The defence also looked better last week, but the Falcons offence is a very different prospect that the Lions with their injured quarterback.

In the end I fancy the Falcons to win, but we really shouldn’t discount the playoff experience of the Seahawks, but the problems they have had against the pass since Thomas was injured could really hurt them in this one.

Houston Texans @ New England Patriots

The Patriots went 14-2 this season despite having Tom Brady suspended for four games, losing one with him and one without. In their previous meeting the Patriots ran out 27-0 winners with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback so it is hard to see anything other than a Patriots’ win in this game.

The offence has been its usual efficient self, and has barely missed a beat since Rob Gronkowski was lost to injury as it appears that nothing can slow down Brady who has managed to get himself into the MVP discussion despite his suspension. The defence struggled earlier in the season, but has come on over the course of the season and whilst finishing a modest sixteenth by DVOA, they will have scheme enough for a Texans offence that has sputtered all season.

The Texans got their win last week, and will no doubt want to put in a better performance than their last visit to Gillette Stadium. However, whilst their defence should be competitive, with a number of players stepping out of JJ Watt’s shadow to lead the team, the offence is likely to struggle. The Texans stressed surrounding Brock Osweiler with options in the passing game, but he struggled to make use of them for much of the year. He looked a bit better last week, but I’m not sure he’ll have the tools to attack this Patriots defence. I can see Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney causing problems with their pass rush abilitiy, and AJ Abouye has looked like an excellent pick up at corner, but you just have a feeling that the Patriots will find a way to win out in the end. They have for most of this season.

Wildcard Sunday

08 Sunday Jan 2017

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With yesterday’s games turning out to be easy home wins, our attention shifts to tonight’s matchups in the hopes of more competitive fixtures

Miami Dolphins (10-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)

In something of a theme for wildcard week, the Miami Dolphins face the Steelers with a backup quarterback. However, Matt Moore has looked pretty good and has at least won two of the three games that he has played. The Dolphins offence may not be consistently effective, but they have a number of play makers, and Jay Ajayi will be hoping to have the kind of success he had against the Steelers in week six when he ran for two hundred yards and the Dolphins won the game. That win sparked a six game win streak to take the Dolphins from 1-4 to 7-4 but this game is a tough ask. Their defence will face a difficult teat against the Steelers, particularly with their twenty-second ranked rush defence by DVOA goes against Le’Veon Bell, but if Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake can get going then maybe the Dolphins can contain them.

The strength of this Steelers team is the combination of Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Le’Veon Bell. However, Roethlisberger has not quite looked himself since his return from a knee injury and it is very possible that he is banged up. As a result Antonio Brown has not been quite as dominant as last season, but he is still a phenomenal player, and you only have to look at the play he made against the Ravens in week sixteen as he stretched for the winning touchdown to see the impact he can still have. The good news for the Steelers is that they finally come into the playoffs with Le’Veon Bell healthy and having run for over twelve hundred yards in just twelve games. The defence may present some concerns given their up and down performance but they will want to make up for the two hundred yards they gave up early in the year.

If the Dolphins defence can do enough to limit the Steelers, then with their big play options on offence the Dolphins can do enough to win this game, but it is hard to see them doing so. This is Adam Gase’s first year with the Dolphins and their first appearance in the playoffs since the 2008 season, whilst the Steelers are filled with playoff experience and an offence that if it gets going could put this game away quickly. I expect the Steelers to win this game, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Dolphins got beaten heavily or made a game of it.

New York Giants (11-5) @ Green Bay Packers (10-6)

This is the game of the wildcard weekend. The Packers won their division with a six game win streak after Aaron Rodgers stated they would win out and the team backed that up by doing just that. The Packers have had problems with injuries, patching up their secondary and making do at running back. The offence has now found a formula they can make work and have scored thirty or more in the last four games. However, although defence led the league in rush defence early on, injuries have seen this unit slip to be distinctly average. At home they will hope that the offence can take the pressure off, but a young secondary could be the Achilles heel of the Packers in this game.

The Giants come into this game with a defence ranked number two in defence by DVOA having been thirtieth the year before. This is the largest single year improvement of defence ever recorded by DVOA and is off the back of a bunch of free agent signings and a major step forward by second year safety Landon Collin. In fact Collins leads the team in tackles with one hundred, plus four sacks, and five interceptions, which is an incredible season by anyone’s standard. This defence turnaround is very timely as the offence has really struggled for a lot of this year. The Giants have been unable to run the ball effectively and Eli Manning has thrown sixteen interceptions as he’s struggled to find his receivers consistently. Both Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz have had their moments, but too often the Giants offence has been reliant on big plays to Odell Beckham. That said, Paul Perkins did manage to run for one hundred yards against Washington next week, and if the Giants can be a bit more balanced on offence or find Beckham a couple of times then they stand a real chance in this game.

I am really not sure who is going to win this one, but I am expecting a good game to close out the Wildcard weekend.

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 38

07 Saturday Jan 2017

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As the season draws to a close, it’s time to crown our Divisional Pick’em champion for the year, in what proved just how unpredictable this years league has been! We also take a look at the coaching merry-go-round that is Black Monday, as well as looking at Week 17’s action, and our picks for the first week of the Playoffs – The Wildcards! And as this is a pod for crowning champions, there’s only one way to find out if Gee or Dan finished the year top of the game prediction tree – All this week on The Wrong Football Podcast!

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 38

Wildcard Saturday

07 Saturday Jan 2017

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Oakland Raiders (12-4) @ Houston Texans (9-7)

There are some that are being sniffy about this game, but there aren’t that many games left so we shouldn’t be too picky and we will be seeing history when Connor Cook becomes the first quarterback to start their first game in the playoffs.

The Houston Texans may have lost JJ Watt early in the season, but their defence still managed to rank seventh by DVOA and this was the year where Jadeveon Clowney started to put things together. There are rumours that Bill O’Brien’s job may not be safe unless the Texans get a win in this game. Certainly as an offensive minded coach who is meant to get the best out of quarterbacks, the struggles they have had in finding a consistent starter at that position in recent years will be a concern. With Tom Savage in the concussion protocol we see the return of Brock Osweiler who struggled a lot this year, and who was cheered when he was pulled out of the game several weeks ago, although I thought he looked a little better against the Raiders when these teams met in Mexico.

It feels like the Raiders had their fairy tale return to the playoffs stolen from them when Derek Carr broke his leg in their penultimate game and to lose their backup quarterback to injury seems particularly cruel. They still have an excellent offensive line, and play with a sixth linemen more than any other team in the league, but with the problems they have had on defensive despite some very good players, they have really felt the loss at quarterback. However, they should not be without hope as there is a chasm between these two teams in DVOA ranking with the Raiders at eleven and the Texans ranked twenty ninth.

This might not be a pretty game, but there is a lot on the line and as a writer would be happy to see Osweiler prove the doubters wrong, Connor Cook announce himself to the league, Khalil Mack demonstate his pass rush ability once more or watch Jedeveon Clowney really announce himself to the league. I think I lean towards the Texans winning at home, but it would not surprise me to see the Raiders win on the road, likely to be proclaimed as one for Derek.

Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks

This is another intriguing if potentially ugly game.

The Seahawks won their division and went 7-1 at home, but whilst the offence has been up and down all year through injuries and problems with their offensive line, the defence has not looked the same since Earl Thomas was lost for the season in week thirteen with a broken leg. It was Thomas’ ability to patrol between the numbers behind the defence that allowed the secondary to play as aggressively as it does, and whilst playing them in Seattle will still be a problem they do look beatable.

The problem for the Lions is that they have had their own problems this year since Matthew Stafford dislocated the tip of his middle finger on his throwing hand. The ball has not been coming out the same, and the fourth quarter heroics that so defined their early season success has dried up in recent weeks. In fact, they come into this game on a three game losing streak and could have a very tough time in this game. The hope will be that Stafford has another week to heal, and the Seahawks are struggling, but they will need to stick to the run more and hope the defence can stand up to a patchy Seahawks offence.

This was the year that Stafford took a step for me and looked more capable of winning on the road, but it is hard to see the Lions getting their first playoff victory since 1957 in Seattle under the circumstance. I would love to be proved wrong, and I could see this being a close game, but I do have a feeling that the Seahawks recent run of playoff success will prove telling.

The Disappointed Twenty

07 Saturday Jan 2017

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So with the playoffs starting this weekend I thought I would say goodbye to the teams that sadly didn’t make it to the post-season this year.

Buffalo Bills (7-9)

So one of the longer playoff droughts continues as once again the Bills fail to make the playoffs despite being competitive over the last three seasons. The Ryan brothers were fired, but Doug Whaley gets to keep his general manager job despite being the force behind EJ Manuel starting in week seventeen and given the dysfunction of the franchise, it could be a while yet before the Bill return to post-season. I am very confused by their dealings with Tyrod Taylor who is better than management clearly think he is, so it seems that Bills we be going into the offseason with questions about their quarterback, which seldom ends well.

New York Jets (5-11)

Tod Bowles gets to keep his job after a tough season where things were bad for long stretches, but the Jets are looking a bit old and will have to shore up their defence and find a long term solution to their problems at quarterback. This is another team where it could take some time to bounce back, particularly as the draft prospects at quarterback are not necessarily that exciting and the Jets have not had the most inspiring of front office approaches in recent years.

Baltimore Ravens (8-8)

The Ravens defence was strong, but the offence sputtered and in the end they couldn’t do enough to get into the playoffs for the second straight year. This was an improvement on their 2015 record of 5-11, but they will need to continue the overhaul of their roster and get more explosive on offence. I would expect a focus on passing targets for Joe Flacco, except this is definitely a team that drafts on best player available but I expect them to be competitive again next year.

Cincinnati Bengals (6-9-1)

A frustrating year for the Bengals that was foreseeable having lost three coordinators in two seasons as well as their number two and three receivers leave in free agency. More reliable kicking would certainly have helped them win more games, but it did look like some of the young receivers were coming on late in the season and first year co-ordinator Ken Zampese will be hoping he gets more games with AJ Green and Tyler Eifert together next year, although Eifert’s back injury is somewhat concerning. A year of stability and a good draft could see things turn round, but whilst no one can deny the transformation Marvin Lewis is responsible for in Cincinatti, it is increasingly hard to have faith that he will be able to get the team over the hump and into championship contention. Another big year awaits, but I feel like I say that every year for the Bengals.

Cleveland Browns (1-15)

This was always going to be a difficult year for the Browns and so it was, although it is hard to think of many teams who were as happy about any win as the Browns were when they beat the Chargers in week sixteen. The Browns need to make hay in the draft to move on, but I can still see the plan working if they stick to it, and the lack of firings so far should be seen as a positive sign, but this offseason needs to go well, particularly with some big free agents re-signing on the horizon.

Tennessee Titans (9-7)

It was a very hard end to the season for the Titans, but Marcus Matioa should come back from his broken leg next season to lead a team who stand as good a chance as anyone to compete in the AFC South. The extra pick they have in the draft thanks to trading down should help that process, and for a team who have been out of the playoffs since 2008, they will be a team to watch next season if they continue to develop as they did this year.

Indianapolis Colts (8-8)

The Colts pretty much alternated wins and losses in a year where Andrew Luck came back from the injuries that ruined the previous season and looked like the quarterback so many want him to be. The problem is that he still takes too many hits and there is not enough around him for the team to win consistently, which considering the division they play in is a worry. After some initial questions whether both Chuck Pagano and Ryan Grigson would keep their jobs, both head coach and general manager roll into the offseason with another chance to build a team that can break through to the next level, but you would have to think that they are running out of chances to succeed.

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13)

Head coach Gus Bradley paid the price for this team not being able to take the step that they kept promising to make, and in fact they had less wins than the previous year. Owner Shahid Khan has been very patient, and there is some talent on the roster so they could come together quickly, but the big question is how good Blake Bortles can be. He has come out after the season and said he was playing through two separated shoulders and wrist tendonitis, but the real issue was his mechanics. Unsurprisingly he has announced he will be working on these during the offseason, but he will need to be functionally good by the time next season starts. Obviously every quarterback would prefer to have perfect mechanics, but Philip Rivers has demonstrated that it is possible to function at a high level with less than perfect form, but Bortles will need consistent accuracy to find his promising young receivers more regularly. The offensive system and coaching he gets will go a long way to determine how the Jaguars go next season.

Denver Broncos (9-7)

Neither of last year’s Super Bowl teams made the playoffs this year, but the Broncos made the better attempt to get in, and if the AFC West hadn’t been so strong they might have made it. Unfortunately, whilst apart from one notable slip up against the Chiefs, the defence played well if not quite up to the standards of last year, but the offence struggled. The big problem for the Broncos was that Trevor Siemian was a good enough quarterback when the run game was working and Gary Kubiak could run his offence as he wanted, but when CJ Anderson went down with an injury the running game never quite recovered and Siemian couldn’t throw them to wins. Given his health problems I totally understand Kubiak’s decision to retire, and with John Elway’s recent run of decisions I expect to see the Broncos back in the playoff hunt again next season despite needing a new head coach.

San Diego Chargers (5-11)

The Charger fans must be some of saddest about their season with it looking like the team are leaving San Diego, the injuries mounted up to prevent them from competing. The Chargers were so hapless that even when they pick a great player like Joey Bosa in last year’s draft, his missed the start of the season through a contract dispute in an era where the contracts almost write themselves, and then he went down injured. The Chargers are looking for a new head coach to replace Mike McCoy and with all the upheaval it is hard to be hopeful about their prospects next season, although most teams are never too far away from turning things around, particularly if you have a quarterback of the ability of Philip Rivers.

Washington (8-7-1)

Washington had the fifth ranked offence in the NFL this season, with Kirk Cousins throwing for four thousand nine hundred yards, and went into week seventeen with their destiny in their own hands but could not get the win at home against the Giants they needed to make the playoffs. Their defence really struggled and they are looking for a new co-ordinator as they looks to fix that side of the ball in the offseason, but all the headlines will be about Kirk Cousins contact. I don’t like to be too prescriptive so I don’t want to say too much about whether applying the franchise tag for a second year will prevent them getting a long term deal, but Cousins feels like a very similar quarterback to Andy Dalton in that they get good numbers, but questions remain about their ability in the big moments. I think that Dalton has improved in this area as he has gained experience, and whilst you can’t truly comment without being in the building every day, from the outside I would be inclined towards doing a deal to sign up Cousins as there are simply not that many good quarterbacks in the league and with even an average defence Washington could make life very difficult for a lot of teams next season.

Philadelphia Eagles (7-9)

The Eagles couldn’t maintain their strong start to the season, but finished the year strongly and given the problems they had at receiver and corner, could be happy with the progress they made this year. Certainly it looks like they have their franchise quarterback for years to come in Carson Wentz, and the question will be how they choose to build a team around him, but my only concern going forward if I was an Eagles fan would be the strength of the division, which looks to be one of the best in the league given that 7-9 was only good enough for fourth.

Minnesota Vikings (8-8)

The piling up of injuries, at offensive tackle as much as anywhere, is what did for the Vikings who were the final undefeated team, but who could not maintain this success. The offence still needs work, whilst the defence stayed in the top ten by DVOA. You can read the declaration that Sam Bradford will be next year’s starter as taking the pressure of Teddy Bridgewater who has a long way to come back from his horrible pre-season knee injury. There have been no big changes in the front office, but there will be a lot of pressure on them to maintain their competitiveness given the trade to get Bradford, but with a shored up offensive line and a viable running back the Vikings will be a team to be feared next season.

Chicago Bears (3-13)

I appreciate the patience the Bears are showing in keeping John Fox as head coach, but whilst there are some hopeful signs for some players, the Bears are heading into the offseason looking for a quarterback. There is a lot of building to be done in Chicago, but I suspect that Fox will have to get his team to make definitive progress next year if he is to keep his job. However, if nothing else you have to think there will be some regression to the mean in terms of injuries and that alone could help the Bears win more games next season.

Tampa Bay (9-7)

Ten seems to be the magic number if you want to make sure that you get to the playoffs, but after a slightly shaky start the Buccaneers really improved, going on a five game win streak in the middle of the season that saw them beat the Chiefs and Seahawks in back to back weeks. They will obviously be disappointed to miss the playoffs, but this is a big step forward for a team that haven’t made the playoffs since 2007, even if they did get ten wins 2010. I was concerned by rookie head coach Dirk Koetter’s performance early in the year, but coaches as players have form and given the way they improved through the season it looks like the Bucs are set to kick on into next season.

New Orleans (7-9)

Once again New Orleans were close but couldn’t make the playoffs despite Drew Brees having another five thousand yard season. It looks as if Sean Payton is staying with the Saints as there are multiple changes to the coaching staff, but the Saints will need to improve the team around Brees despite the salary cap problems they still have if they are to get back to the playoffs. I have a nasty feeling that the Saints could be heading for more of the same, although it would be truly weird if they went 7-9 for a fourth straight year next season.

Carolina Panthers (6-10)

It is often hard for the losing Super Bowl team the next season, but the Panthers really struggled. They lost more than Josh Norman from their secondary, although he grabbed all the headlines, and the settling in of the rookies in the secondary contributed to this team falling to 1-5 from where they never really recovered. The offence also struggled with Cam Newton playing well below the peak he reached the previous season, the running game was often stalled, and the offensive line continued to have problems. There is plenty of work to do in the offseason, but what worries me most was the reaction of Luke Kuechly to his latest concussion and what his future could be. I would love to see him play and get back to his best, but I’m not sure I would enjoy it as with his concussion history he should very possibly retire. Only his doctors and he will know the whole truth of the matter, but in this modern NFL where we know so much more about head injuries it is hard to ignore such a situation and we really shouldn’t if we want to enjoy football being played.

Arizona Cardinals (7-8-1)

The Cardinals finished with a pretty credible record considering how much they struggled at times, and it will be interesting to see how the team responds to a season where they were very much in win now mode. Unfortunately Carson Palmer could not match the heights of his performance last season and the offensive line struggled to protect him. Indeed for large stretches of the season the offence seemed to revolve around David Johnson who is amongst the best backs in the league and the seemingly ageless Larry Fitzgerald whose move to slot receiver has paid dividends over the last couple of years. Their defence ranked third by DVOA and so they should have a strong chance to bounce back into the playoffs next year, but they will need to fix the offensive line and come up with more from their quarterback, be it Carson Palmer or someone else.

Los Angeles Rams (4-12)

Unfortunately for Jeff Fisher the Rams couldn’t even manage 7-9 bull excrement football this season. The offence was woeful all year, and questions surround the ability of Jared Goff who they traded up to select first overall in the draft. The defence has a lot of talent, but having won two games without scoring a touchdown things fell apart for them down the stretch and it is hard to think of a much worse start for the Rams in LA. All the talk is that they will need to make a splashy hire for their new coach to secure their place in a crowded LA sports scene, but I would argue the more important thing would be winning. An offensive minded coach makes sense given the talent on defence and the investment in a young quarterback, but despite having the talent of Todd Gurley at running back, it will be a big job to turn this team round even for an offensive mastermind.

San Francisco 49ers (2-14)

If the Cowboys entered week seventeen thirteen and Giants, then the 49ers finished the season Rams and fourteen with their only wins coming against their struggling divisional rivals. The 49ers have not only fired their coach, but also sent GM Trent Baalke packing after a series of problematic drafts. No team would have found it easy to recover the talent drain that occurred two seasons ago thanks to some big retirements, both timely and otherwise, but it hard to think of a bigger rebuild in the NFL. At least the Browns appear to have a plan and a bucket load of picks this offseason, not to mention and innovative offensive head coach whose schemes work. I don’t know if Chip Kelly will get another chance in the NFL, but I can’t see it as a head coach and I will be curious if any head coaches thinks they can play a complimentary style to Kelly’s up tempo offence, or if Kelly will be willing to more malleable in his approach. It could be a number of seasons before the 49ers return to competitiveness and a lot is resting on the hires that Jed York makes over the coming weeks.