Saints @ Panthers

20 Sunday Nov 2016

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Carolina Panthers 23
New Orleans Saints 20

This was as good a Thursday night game as we have had in a while in that what started off as a very one sided game ended up with an exciting finish thanks to a late surge by the Saints and the Panthers struggling towards the end of the game.

The Panthers offence was up and down for most of the game as they struggled to make any headway in the run game and so were often forced to pass the ball with mixed success. The run game was particularly bad as Cam Newton, Jonathan Steward, and Ted Ginn all had runs of ten yards or more, and yet the Panthers managed a paltry fifty yards in total. Jonathan Stewart’s eighteen carries for thirty-one yards looks particularly anaemic, although these numbers will have been hurt by a dangerous attempt to run out the clock that nearly cost the Panthers the game in the fourth quarter. Cam Newton managed not to turn the ball over, but he completed less that fifty percent of his passes, but did manage to connect up with Ted Ginn for a forty yard touchdown thanks to a great catch at the back of the end zone at the end of the second quarter. This game could have been won a lot more easily if the Panthers had kept playing offence into the fourth quarter, but the offensive line struggled a lot throughout the game and the attempts to run out the clock just did not work.

The Saints defence played better than I was expecting, and whilst I knew it had taken some steps forward since the start of the season, I was not expecting them to cause as many problems for the Panthers as they did. The real star of the show was the Saints front seven who effectively shut down the Panthers running game, as well as getting two sacks and seven quarterback hits. In fact they hurried Newton several times, with Dannell Ellerbe coming up with four tackles, a sack, and two quarterback hits. The Panthers’ struggles in the passing game were as much to do with Cam Newton’s accuracy as coverage, but the pressure he was under was surely a factor and re-enforces the old maxim that good coverage helps create pass rush, and pass rush helps create good coverage.

The Saints offence had a harder time scoring than the Panthers for much of the game, but they actually out-gained the Panthers by nearly one hundred and fifty yards. That said, part of that seemed to be that their running game improved when Mark Ingram went out of the game in the third quarter and Tim Hightower came into the game. Hightower amassed sixty-nine yards on just twelve carries including a long of twenty-seven yards. The Panthers were able to pressure Drew Brees who was sacked three times and hit a further four times, but he threw for over two hundred and fifty yards and two touchdowns with only one interceptions. Rookie receiver Michael Thomas led the team with five catches for sixty-eight yards, but Brees had nine different players catch balls as he distributed the ball with characteristic skill, but in the end it wasn’t enough.

The Panthers defence has been better since the bye, the front seven coming back to form as their very young secondary came together. They struggled later in this game, with 6ft 6 Brandon Coleman catching the Saints’ first touchdown over 5ft 9 Robert McClain with Leonard Johnson having gone out of the game. However, the real worry for the Panthers will be Luke Kuechly who left the game sobbing in the fourth quarter and who is once more in the concussion protocol. Their leading tackler missed three games last season to a concussion, and whilst Friday’s Instagram picture with a smiling Kuechly may give hope to some, you have to be worry about how much more football he should play. As fantastic a player as Kuechly is, and I have been very bullish on my praise in the past, the troublesome nature of head injuries in football and the position he plays means it may be time for him to seriously consider his career.

This was a tight game that should have been a highlight of the Thursday night schedule, but with two players now in the concussion protocol the gloss has come off the game. As much as I love football, we cannot and should not ignore what can happen to players, and I just hope that both players make a full recovery and listen to their doctors.

Week Eleven Picks

20 Sunday Nov 2016

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Last week was something of a disaster picking wise, which leaves Dan and me level again going into week eleven.

Gee:      Week 10   4-10                   Overall   65-82
Dan:      Week 10   9-5                     Overall   65-82

Bills @ Bengals (-3.5)

The Bengals have not been able to pull things together this season, but they are playing at home in Cincinnati for the first time in three weeks and that was the last time they won a game. They may get back on track against a Bills team who are themselves having an up and down season, but I’m not picking them to win by four until I see a better performance all round. I would be very happy to be proved wrong about this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Bears @ Giants (-7.5)

The injuries are piling up for Bears on the offensive line, Alshon Jeffery is on a four game suspension for breaking the NFL’s substance abuse policy, and they are on the road. This is a big line, but things do seem to be coming together for the Giants on both sides of the ball and so I’m picking them to cover this line, albeit somewhat nervously.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Steelers @ Browns (+9.5)

The Browns lost badly against the Ravens, and this week welcome the Steelers to Cleveland. Part of me wants to pick the Browns to cover as the Steelers have a habit of dropping games on the road against teams they shouldn’t, but the Steelers need this one too badly if they are to stay in the playoff hunt and having only narrowly lost to the Cowboys last week, I think they take care of business against the Browns.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Ravens @ Cowboys (-7.5)

The Ravens have a good defence, and their offence did enough in the second half against the Browns last week despite being ranked dead last by DVOA, but they are on the road against a Cowboys team that are rolling. The Cowboys’ offence is what everybody is talking about, but the defence is playing much better than I thought they would and I think the Cowboys will keep things rolling this week at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Jaguars @ Lions (-6.5)

The Jaguars cannot get out of their own way thanks to the poor starts, but whilst I think the Lions will win this game, I am not picking them to win by seven against a team that seems to be experts at garbage time scores and covering the spread. I might regret this one, but Jaguars to cover in another losing effort.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Titans @ Colts (-2.5)

I’m really nervous about this one as I keep thinking the Titans have got a statement win so I pick them, and it then goes wrong. However, I think this week on the road they really should beat the Colts if they want to compete in the division and having thumped Green Bay last week, I’m placing my faith in what I think is the better team this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Buccaneers @ Chiefs (-7.5)

The Chiefs should win this game as that is what they do, but I don’t see them winning by eight given the injuries they have on offence. I expect them to win a close game as that’s what they do, but the Bucs have shown enough that I don’t think they will lose by eight.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Cardinals @ Vikings (-0.5)

It seems strange to keep picking against the Vikings as I have a lot of faith in Mike Zimmer, and Dan is backing the Vikings to turn things around at home. However, as much as they are struggling on offence thanks to Carson Palmer’s wayward form, they have David Johnson and a tough defence, which despite making a meal of things against the 49ers last week, will have enough to defeat a Vikings team whose offensive line problems are preventing them from competing.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Dolphins @ Rams (+0.5)

So Jared Goff is now ready, and will be watched by many as the overall first pick makes his first start. What the Rams’ defence must make of the continuing problems on the other side of the ball I don’t know, but I am intrigued to see the rookie play. However, given the recent run of form, I’m not making the mistake of picking against the Dolphins on the road again, and having watched them beat the Chargers last week, I think they complete their west coast stay with a second win.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Patriots @ 49ers (+13.5)

This is a horrible line, which is what they are meant to be, but having been bitten by last week’s points when I backed the Patriots to beat Seattle by a lot, I’m not picking them again this week. I can totally see Brady playing lights out and destroying his boyhood team who didn’t give him a workout and beating this line, but I’m not going to pick that to happen.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Eagles @ Seahawks (-6.5)

I am really looking forward to this game as I think it will be a cracker. I have so much respect for what the Seahawks did in travelling to New England on a short week and getting the win, but I don’t see them winning this one by seven. The Eagles got their own win last week, and with a better run game plus a defence that has played well and matches up a really good defensive line against an improving but still not stellar Seattle offensive line, the Eagles should make this a real contest. Russel Wilson looks mobile again, and the Seahawks are rounding into form towards the end of the season as usual so they may well win it, but as I said, I don’t see it being by seven.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Packers @ Washington (-2.5)

I picked the Packers last week as I had that lingering faith in Aaron Rodgers, but there is definitely a serious problem in Green Bay and a road trip to Washington is not exactly the game you would be looking for having lost badly to the improving Titans the previous week. I thought that the suspension of left tackle Trent Williams would really hurt Washington, but they managed to get another ugly win, which is what this team seems to do and I’m thinking they will do it again this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Texans @ Raiders (-6.5)

So Monday night football goes to Mexico and gives us a London style home game for the Raiders that pits their exciting offence against a Texans’ defence that is just outside of the top ten by DVOA. However, I am liking what I have seen out of the Raiders this year and their defence does seem to have picked up in the last couple of weeks, and so with them facing an offence that is hampered by the struggles of Brock Osweiler this season, I think they will win out handily in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

A Return to Form

17 Thursday Nov 2016

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So the games of week ten were as good as my picks were awful!

One of the reasons suggested for the NFL’s falling ratings has been the quality of the games, particularly in the nationally televised games, but we had a series of close and eventful finishes and probably the game of the season in the Sunday night prime time slot with the Seattle Seahawks beating the New England Patriots in a back and forth game that had seven lead changes. This followed and equally back and forth game between the Cowboys and Steelers that featured three touchdowns in the last two minutes.

The New Orleans Saints must have thought they had won the game when Drew Brees somehow found Brandin Cooks in the end zone despite being covered by two Broncos’ players. However, the resulting extra point was blocked by rookie safety Justin Simmons who vaulted the long snapper Justin Drescher with the help of Jared Crick who made sure that Drescher couldn’t stand up and make contact with Simmons by pushing him down. The NFL has later confirmed that as this was an open handed push it was legal. If Simmons’s block wasn’t enough though, another rookie safety in Will Parks scooped up the ball and ran it back to the end zone for a two point defensive score that gave the Broncos the lead before receiving the ball and holding on for the win. Such are the margins that games turn on in the NFL, although the Saints will likely feel aggrieved as with no definitive view of Parks who likely stepped out of bounds during the return, the return stood. It is very possible that this play would have been overturned if Parks had been wearing black boots, but it is too late now. Still, it is yet another dramatic ending for a really good slate of games over the weekend and we will likely see similar leaping block attempts in crucial field goals/extra points at the end of games, with the same manoeuvre executed on the poor long snapper who can’t do much to defend himself in that position.

The fine margins that separate winning and losing are not always so obvious, but the differences between good and average teams are not always that big. This season seems to have a particular large sample of so-so teams, with it seems everybody agreeing that the Patriots, Cowboys, and Seahawks are looking dangerous, a mass of teams with one or two potential contenders for post season success, and then likes of the Browns and 49ers vying for the first pick in next year’s draft.

The Bengals could be seen as a microcosm of this in that their 3-5-1 record is pretty awful, but they are only two games out in the surprisingly poor AFC North. They are not actually a bad team, but they seem to have been doomed by too many changes at once and things won’t quite come together. Whether certain parts of the team just got too old at the same time I don’t know, but most would consider the roster to be one of the most talented in the league. However, there have been so many changes with a new offensive coordinator and several new postition coaches on defence, and nothing has looked quite right. The lack of consistency is what is hampering the Bengals and those who have been calling for Marvin Lewis to be fired are unlikely to be quietened by anything other than a major turnaround in the second half of the season and post season success.

There are so many moving parts in an NFL franchise, that playing within a structure that is supposed to promote parity, it hardly a surprise that it is hard to be consistently good. Only the very best and worst are standing out at the moment, but whilst you will frequently hear people questioning decisions, you also frequently hear criticisms of such and such is a bad coach, and I’m not always sure that is fair.

In some corners of the NFL coverage you will frequently hear disparaging comments about Andy Reid’s clock management, and these are not entirely without merit, however as demonstrated by their come back on Sunday, even when the Chiefs fall into a hall the players believe in Reid and keep playing. He has won an awful lot of football games, and there is a lot more to being a head coach that clock management. If you get a chance, listen to Ron Riviera talking on this week’s Peter King podcast to get a flavour of what the coaches are going through. I do sometime feel that coaches are wedded to the way they were brought up in football, but there is a constant search for the next small advantage that could turn a game and we don’t always get to see or hear about them.

In a changing game with so much variation from season to season, the sustained success of the Patriots and Seahawks are all the more remarkable, and whilst there is a lot to take from the recent string of Bengals success, they still haven’t won a playoff game since 1990, the longest in the league. In a results based world like the NFL, people’s jobs are tied to very variable results and this does not always lead to better results, but with the seasons that the Bengals are having, much like the Packers who are a team who also have a history of patience with coaches, change could be in the air at the end of the season. There is still over a quarter of the season to go, but things are getting serious now so let’s see what happens.

 

Saints @ Panthers (-3.5)

I got bitten by the line last week, but whilst the Saints are a better team than the Browns, and have a better record than the Panthers, the Panthers played well for long stretches against the Kansas City Chiefs and have looked a lot more like themselves in recent weeks. It may be too late for a playoff push, but I’m not picking against them at home in this Thursday night game.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:         Panthers

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 32

17 Thursday Nov 2016

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What a week of games Week 10 turned out to be! We’ve watched some of the best games of the week to give our opinions on goings on in and around the NFL. Also, Tony Romo sounds like he might be calling it a day with the Cowboys, and we take a look at just what is going on with the Kickers of the NFL this season! It’s heating up in the pick’em competition too – has Dan taken the lead? Tune in to (maybe) find out!!

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 32

Week Ten Picks

13 Sunday Nov 2016

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A strange week all round, but here are our week ten picks.

Gee:      Week 9   8-5                       Overall   61-72
Dan:       Week 9   7-6                       Overall   56-77

Falcons @ Eagles (-0.5)

The Eagles started strongly, but they have fallen back in recent weeks and face a tough test in this game as the Falcons come to Philadelphia with their league leading offence. The Eagles stand atop of the overall DVOA rankings thanks to a big win against the Steelers and some close losses, but whilst their offence continues to struggle I think they will find it hard to keep up with the Falcons in this one, even if Wentz did lead a comeback against the Giants last week.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Bears @ Buccaneers (+0.5)

I like the Bears in this game as their defence seems to be coming together in the front seven, and the Buccaneeers are really struggling. It worries me that the Bucs have lost their four home games this season as you can’t see this team losing all their home games having won three on the road, but things do not seem to be coming together, and Jameis Winston doesn’t seem to have taken the step forward that I though he had after their first game. Partly this could be to do with the lack of running game on their offence, but I see them losing this one despite the Bears own problems this season.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Broncos @ Saints (-1.5)

The real problem for the Broncos would be a combination of their lack of running game and the small cracks that have appeared in their defence. The injury to CJ Anderson seems to have broken the Broncos run game, and whilst Trevor Siemian looked good managing the offence when it was based around the run, he has struggled to carry the team. Meanwhile, on defence the injury to Aqib Talib has hurt their coverage and they struggled to stop the run against the Raiders last week. The Saints offence has looked good all year, and while most teams can run on the 49ers as the Saints did last week, I like the look of both Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower and I struggle to see the Broncos as currently constructed keeping up with the Saints offence at home. I would have not picked this game like this a few weeks ago, but I like the Saints in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Packers @ Titans (+2.5)

This is a rare narrative pick for me, as whilst I could see the Titans doing something at home given how they have played this year, and the Packers undoubtedly have problems, I can’t quite pick the Titans to win. The Packers have shown glimpses of themselves during the season, but have been unable to get things going consistently. However, after last week’s flat performance and all the talk after it, I can’t see them playing that way again.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Chiefs @ Panthers (-2.5)

The Panthers are looking much more like themselves over the past couple of weeks, but they are still a 3-5 team welcoming a very good Chiefs team who have a 6-2 record this season. The Chiefs may not be an exciting team to many, but they win a lot of games and I think they are the better team even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Rams @ Jets (-1.5)

The LA Rams are something of a mess, which goes deeper than just their first overall pick quarterback not being ready to play yet, even if that is what most people are talking about. The Jets are not exactly a great team themselves, but as the home team I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Vikings @ Washington (-2.5)

Washington are coming off a bye and look to be shaping up well although they are going to really miss left tackle Trent Williams as he starts his four game ban for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy. However, whilst this make me nervous as I have been really impressed with the Washington Line, the Vikings seasons seems to be coming undone as the injuries seem to have it critical mass on offence whilst the defence isn’t quite playing up to the standards it set earlier in the season. Time will tell if new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur can turn things round, but having lost to the Lions last week at home in a game they really should have seen out for a win, I’m not backing them against a rested Washington team playing at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Texans @ Jaguars (+1.5)

This is a straight forward pick as although I don’t like the Texans much due to the problems they are having on offence, they should still have enough to beat a Jaguars team who are having one of the most disappointing seasons in the league.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Dolphins @ Chargers (-3.5)

This should be a really great game as the Dolphins pit their improved offensive line and three game winning streak against a Chargers team who are playing better than their record would suggest. After the horrible run of bad losses at the start of the year, the Chargers defence looks to be coming together and you always have a chance with Philip Rivers at quarterback, plus with the Dolphins travelling all the way to San Diego I am backing the Chargers to win. Sorry Dan.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Cowboys @ Steelers (-2.5)

The Cowboys are a really good team, and I can easily see them winning this game, but I doubt they are going to go through the rest of the season without winning and the Steelers really need this game. Now that Ben Roethlisberger has his first game back under his belt, they really need to get things back on track if they are not going to slip too far behind the Ravens in the AFC North. There is too much talent on the Steelers’ offence to be down for the rest of the season and I think they get back on track this week. Or I could be proved very wrong, but I think this is a good spot for the Steelers.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

49ers @ Cardinals (-13.5)

This line is huge, but the 49ers run defence is truly abysmal and David Johnson is up there with the best running backs in the game and so I’m placing my faith in him and Bruce Arians’ staff. The Cardinals’ defence is playing really well this year, and I think they have too much for the 49ers although it is nice to see some signs in last week’s game that Colin Kaepernick is getting back to being a good quarterback.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Seahawks @ Patriots (-7.5)

This should be a great game, but the Seahawks have played a series of tough games that relied on extensive play by their excellent defence, whilst the Patriots are coming of a bye week. The Seahawks are one of the few teams that can play with the Patriots when they are at their best, but in this particular game with Tom Brady playing so well I see this being the wrong time for the Seahawks to be playing them in New England.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Bengals @ Giants (-2.5)

Oh how this game scares me. The Bengals need to get things back on track fast, and although it was good to see Tyler Eifert back and playing well in London, there is not a lot of room for manoeuvre if the men in stripes want to get back to the playoffs. I still don’t have a handle on the Giants, but with a run of three wins and two passing rushing ends that could trouble an offensive line that has not been good this season, I’m kind of nervously hoping for the best.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Thursday Night Pick

10 Thursday Nov 2016

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A strange week, too much work, and now two people picking the Browns:

Browns @ Ravens (-10.5)

So if last week’s Thursday night road team selection was based on the Falcons being a better team than the Buccaneers, this week’s is due to the Raven’s needing an eleven point in margin to cover this game and their sputtering offence being ranked dead last by DVOA. The Raven’s defence is playing really well, but it is a defence that Hue Jackson is familiar with given his history in the AFC North and having only lost by five points earlier in the season, I’m backing the Browns to keep this one close as well and will be very smug come Friday morning, or kicking myself a lot!

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:         Browns

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 31

10 Thursday Nov 2016

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We’re here again this week to show that not everything that’s come out of America this week has been rubbish – there’s been some great football too which we’re only too happy to bring to you once again! Looking over some of the best games of the week including arguably one of the best one handed catches you’ll see all season, as well as the pick of Week 10’s games to come. Plus, is Kirk Cousins the real deal, and are the poor old Seahawks being picked on? Find out this week, on The Wrong Football Podcast!

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 31

Falcons @ Buccaneers

06 Sunday Nov 2016

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28
Atlanta Falcons 43

This turned out to be a fairly straight forward win for the Falcons as they eased away in the second half and withstood a late push from the Buccaneers when the game was already out of reach.

The Buccaneers started off the game well, their opening drive going for a touchdown as their offence moved the ball, particularly through the air. The problem for them was however the costly mistakes they made rather than general bad play. In many games, throwing for two hundred and sixty-one yards and three touchdowns would win you the game, but sadly whilst Mike Evans caught eleven balls for one hundred and fifty of those yards as well as two of the touchdowns, he also had too many drops. If you are a Bucs fan Evans must be a frustrating player as he is capable of great catches, and made a spectacular one handed grab near the side line in this game, but he also drops easy balls that a receiver of his quality should really catch. There were plenty of other players catching the ball, but the real problems were a combination of the running game where the Buccaneers have lots of injuries, and turnovers with the Buccaneers fumbling the ball twice and were lucky to only give up field goals off these turnovers. One of the fumbles was particularly bad as a problem with the hand-off was exacerbated by defensive end Adrian Clayborn getting into the backfield and disrupting the play allowing linebacker De’Vondre Campbell to knock the ball out of Antone Smith’s hands. The other was again in the first quarter when Jameis Winston was trying a quarterback sneak to pick up a first down on third and one. However, the inability of the Bucs to sustain drives meant that they could not keep up with the top ranked offence by DVOA in the league.

The Falcons defence is not even in the top twenty of the league by DVOA, but it is doing enough for them to win games. The Buccaneers had success moving the ball through the air, but the Falcons defence did enough against the run and rushed the passer enough to get them the win. The combination of players in the front seven is starting to come together with Vic Beasley beginning to develop in his second year, even if he isn’t the pass rusher they had hoped for, but combined with Adrian Clayborn and others the Falcons managed three sacks and eight quarterback hits in this game. They are not a particularly good defence, but they are trending in the right direction and if they can keep doing enough whilst the Falcons offence is this good then they should keep winning games.

The Falcons offence just kept rolling in this one, with Matt Ryan throwing for three hundred and forty-four yards and four touchdowns. Julio Jones started the game quietly in the first quarter, but finished the game with one hundred and eleven yards and a touchdown. Fellow receiver Taylor Gabriel caught the eye with his speed, catching five passes for fifty-two yards with a long of twenty-six, but also running for twenty-four yards after taking two hand-offs whilst in motion. Devonta Freeman fan for over four yards a carry as he racked up seventy-seven yards and the team managed a total of one hundred and thirty-six yards on the ground. Balance seems to be the watchword for the Falcons this year, with the running game working well in tandem with the passing game, Mohamed Sanu establishing himself as the second receiver opposite Julio Jones. In fact Matt Ryan had seven different players catch the ball in this game, and with an offensive line that is playing well, it is easy to see why the Falcons have looked as good as anyone on offence this year.

The Buccaneers defence struggled in this game, often the Falcons were able to attack the seams of their zone coverage when passing the ball, and whilst the Buccaneers had to sustain drives for long periods to score, the Falcons frequently were able to get long plays in the air. The Bucs defence was able to make the Falcons kick field goals a couple of times, but they only generated one turnover and the Falcons did not have to punt the ball once. They did manage to get eight quarterback hits but Gerald McCoy was often doubled teamed and he was only able to get one sack as for the most part this defence did not catch the eye. That is perhaps is not surprising given the offence they were playing against, but it does make me want to go to the coaching tape at some point to find out if I can see a bit more clearly what is going on.

Overall the Falcons are now 6-3, and are the better team. They were able to keep sustaining their success, particularly on offence and ran out easy winners, scoring over forty points for the third time this season. They got off to a great start last year but could not sustain it, but things look to be a bit more stable this year although there are some tough games against the Eagles, Cardinals, and Chiefs on the horizon.

The Buccaneers looked okay on offence, but they are struggling to run the ball thanks to injuries, whilst their defence still needs work. They went 6-10 last season, and having gone 3-5 in the first half this year, it does not look like they are going to be improving on that record particularly soon.

Week Nine Picks

06 Sunday Nov 2016

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I had a slightly better result last week, but I need to have a few more weeks like that to get back to having more games pick right than wrong so on to this week nine’s picks.

Gee:      Week 8   8-5                       Overall   53-67
Dan:      Week 8  4-9                       Overall   49-71

Dallas Cowboys @ Browns (+7.5)

The Cowboys are looking like one of the class teams of the NFC, but they had a big win in overtime against the Eagles and now they are travelling to Cleveland to face a Browns team who were up 20-7 at half time and still found a way to lose. I’m pretty certain the Cowboys will win, but the points give me pause, but although the Browns usually play fairly well before losing, the games they have kept close were against lesser teams and I think they’re going to struggle in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Lions @ Vikings (-6.5)

This is a lot of points for the Vikings to be giving the Lions given that they have lost two straight and just had their offensive coordinator resign, even if amicably. However, they have been on the road for the last two weeks and I have been impressed with the home advantage they have in their new stadium. The problem is that whilst I didn’t think the Lions had the defence to worry the troubled Vikings offensive line, a quick check of the adjusted sack rate on Football Outsiders has them ranked thirteenth, one place behind last week’s Chicago. Ultimately I think the Vikings get things back on track in wins and losses, but I can’t pick them to win by seven. I could regret this…

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Jaguars @ Chiefs (-8.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs keep rolling on whilst the Jaguars are mired in mediocrity again. The Chiefs might be down to their backup quarterback, but I see them winning the game, but the nine points required to cover does give me pause. The Jaguars have just fired their offensive coordinator, and you might well expect a bounce back as they rally round the new coordinator, and with the Chiefs having a backup quarterback and injuries at running back it looks like a good spot for the Jaguars. The problem is that I don’t trust them at all whilst I trust Andy Reid and Arrow Head is a difficult place to visit, still I think this is too many points to give away. Eek!

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Jets @ Dolphins (-3.5)

This game pits strength against strength as the Dolphins welcome the Jets to Miami and set their running game against the New York Jets’ running defence, which is one of the few bits of their defence that is definitively working. However, whilst the Jets did get a win last week, it was against the Browns and with the Dolphins coming off two straight wins with Jay Ajayi rushing for two hundred yards in both games as the offensive line coming together a bit, I think the Dolphins will run out winners in this one even if Ajayi is unlikely to run for two hundred yards again.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Eagles @ Giants (-2.5)

The New York Giants seem to be very up and down, at least they are to me and I struggle to get a feel for them each week. However, I was impressed with the Eagles play last week, even if they did ultimately lose against the Cowboys. This may be their second road game in a row and coming after an overtime loss to face a team coming off their bye, but I think the Eagles are a better team, even if the Giants have far better passing options on paper. I could regret this, but I’m going with the road underdog in a bad spot.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Steelers @ Ravens (-0.5)

The indications are that Ben Roethlisberger might play against the Ravens, which makes this a tricky game to call as these divisional games are often close. The Ravens have lost four straight although they are coming off a bye, but so are the Steelers, yet I think they are the better team and if that offence clicks back into place it is terrifying. However, Roethlisberger often doesn’t look great in his first game back from injury. I’m going to back what I think is the better team in this one, but it is another tricky pick.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Panthers @ Rams (+3.5)

The big question in this game is whether the Panthers we saw las week was a one week blip or if they are back to something more like how they were last season. The complaints from Cam Newton about the calls he’s getting will be music to the ears of an aggressive Rams defence, but they have been struggling to get consistent results and I’m not sure what to expect from them coming off the bye. I can see this one going either way, particularly if Luke Kuechly can’t go having missed practice, so when you’re getting this many points against a team who are only 2-5 this season then you take the points.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Saints @ 49ers (+3.5)

There is only one unit I truly trust in this game, which is the Saints offence as Drew Brees continues to be great, and so I’m hitching this pick to his arm and hoping Brees won’t let me down.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Colts @ Packers (-6.5)

The Colts are not a good team, whilst I was impressed with the Packers play in a close loss to the Falcons in Atlanta. This week they return to Green Bay and with Aaron Rodgers looking a lot more like himself against the Packers, and a defence that is battling through its problems in the secondary, I think they are coming together nicely. I could see Andrew Luck covering this line at the end, but I think the Packers are too good for the Colts.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Titans @ Chargers (-5.5)

The Titans are coming off a big win and a long week after the demolition of the Jaguars on Thursday night of week eight, but they are travelling to San Diego to face a surging Chargers team. I was totally wrong about the impact of Joey Bosa’s holdout, and he really is coming into his own for the Chargers now rather than having the year written off. This line is really awkward as the Titans’ defence is still top ten and facing a Chargers team who look to be without their rookie tight end Hunter Henry who has got off to a great start. I think that the Chargers are the better team but I don’t know if they are going to win by six. I really don’t want to make a pick in this one…

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Broncos @ Raiders (+0.5)

The Raiders are doing well off the back of their stellar offence whilst the defence has really struggled. They have won all five of their road games whilst only managing a solitary win out of their three home games. This week they welcome the Denver Broncos who have the defence to contain Carr and Amari Cooper, and in what is a pick’em game I am going to back the Broncos as they punish me every time I don’t. They also have a better offence than Raiders have defence, but I’m really looking forward to watching this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Bills @ Seahawks (-7.5)

There is talk that LeSean McCoy will be back for this game, but hamstrings are tricky injuries to deal with, and in the meantime the Bills are so desperate for options on offence that they have signed Percy Harvin back from retirement. He is only twenty-eight and they will be hoping that the time off will have helped him heal the nagging injuries that plagued him last season, but it is not an obviously great move. The Seahawks defence has looked as good as ever this season, but their offense has had problems thanks to a shaky offensive line and the resulting injuries to Russell Wilson. I’m putting last week’s loss down to the extra fifteen minutes they played against the Cardinals in week seven, but whilst I expect the Seahawks to with this game, I’m not sure they will win by eight points.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Why a Draw is Not the End of the World

03 Thursday Nov 2016

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I know that football’s hatred of ties is cultural. One of the things that confuses Americans most about test cricket is the prospect that you could play a game of five days and not get a result. However, despite what many of them might claim, life is not all about winners and losers, it is more nuanced than that and so perhaps football can learn a thing or two from sports that do end in a tie.

Sunday’s game between Washgington and the Cincinnati Bengals was not an easy one to watch as a nervous Bengals fan going through a tough season where things are not quite coming together and surrounded by Washington fans. I don’t want to speak to for others, but I find it is hard to chant lustily about who is going to beat dem Bengals when the team has a losing record. Perhaps that says more about how I look at sport, but I really want to get to a game in the States one day as I’d love to experience the real home game atmosphere. We all know that the London games offers a different fan experience as the stadium is full of general NFL fans, with every team being represented so it is not unknown for the nominated away to team to have more fans or win the neutrals over more than the hosting team. However, the game was tense to the end, with some calling it the best of the London games.

The result doesn’t really help either team in the hunt for a playoff berth, but at least they are spared playing next week with both teams on byes. The Arizona Cardinals and the Seattle Seahawks were not so lucky and both lost this week having played a full fifteen minutes of overtime to come to their own draw in week seven. This did not surprise me as I watched the same happen to the Bengals and Carolina Panthers when they had the last tie back in 2014. In an age where player safety is supposed to be paramount, I’m not sure that forcing players to play up to another 25% of football is really justified, given the effect that it has on the teams in the following week and the risks to tired players. There has been grumbling about the overtime rules for a number of years, so why not simply do away with overtime until the playoffs.

Sometimes a drawer can feel like a win. Michael Atherton’s famous innings where he batted for 643 minutes across two days was career defining and is still talked about as he managed to lead his England team to an unlikely draw against South Africa. Life is complex and so is a sport like American Football. Do we really want to further tinker with rules and watch more games failed to be decided by the boots of kickers? Sometimes a draw can feel slightly lucky, and despite Mike Nugent’s missed extra point that could have won the Bengals’ the game, things could have easily gone the other way as Washington seemed to have the momentum for large stretches of the game and missed their own field goal in extra time.

However, in the regular season there is no real reason to force a result for every game. The NFL schedule is already constructed in such a way to account for the fact that you cannot play a league format where every team plays each other home and away. The separation by wins and losses does not get broken by introducing tied games; it is not so much harder to say three, four, and one instead of three and four, so why not save overtime for the playoffs?

Be it the penalty shootouts of football or hockey, or field goal at the end of overtime, none of these feel that satisfactory so let us have a draw. Neither team were able to force a result, they get punished for not getting the win without quite getting the loss either. Meanwhile, they don’t face an unfair disadvantage the following week, and we learn that sport like life can be complicated and end without a clear winner. It’s time to get on with the next game.

Falcons @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

My plan is to pick home teams for the Thursday night game unless there’s a compelling reason not to based on the points or a much better team being on the road. In this case, the Falcons are coming off a close win against the Green Bay Packers to stand atop the NFC South at 5-3, whilst the Bucs lost in overtime to the Raiders. The fact that this is a divisional game may throw a spanner in the works, but with the topped ranked offence in the league by DVOA and a defence that is showing some progress I’m backing the Falcons to cover in this game against a team that are ranked twenty-one place lower by overall DVOA.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons