Falcons @ Panthers (-2.5)

This is a strange game for me to pick as the Atlanta Falcons look to be suffering from a Super Bowl hangover, and the Carolina Panthers have been up and down all season. The Falcons offence has not clicked under new coordinator Steve Sarkisian whilst the Panthers have just traded Kelvin Benjamin to a fair amount of consternation from the locker room. Given that I have no confidence in how this game is going to turn out I am going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Bengals @ Jaguars (-4.5)

This game pits a defence that already has two ten sack games against an offensive line that has struggled all season. I have no confidence in the Cincinnati Bengals, but this also seems a lot of points for a team whose offence has not been great going against a pretty decent defence. In the end the Jacksonville Jaguars seem to win big or lose, and I can’t pick the Bengals to win on the road so will back the Jaguars and fervently hope to be wrong.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Broncos @ Eagles (-7.5)

The Denver Broncos have struggled with their offence in recent weeks and are turning to Brock Osweiler to give them a spark. It is a tough ask from the Broncos to win in Philadelphia given how well the Eagles are playing but this line does give me pause. The Eagles have just lost their left tackle Jason Peters for the season and the Broncos defence is still ranked second in the league by DVOA. However, the Broncos are coming off a three game losing streak where the closest game was still ten points, and in the end I can’t quite bring myself to back them. I could regret this.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Ravens @ Titans (-5.5)

This is another game that I don’t know what to do given that the Baltimore Ravens have been up and down all this season and the Tennessee Titans have not exactly inspired confidence. The Titans are coming off a bye and will be hoping the rest will have helped Marcus Mariota get over his hamstring problem fully. However, it still took the Titans overtime to beat the Browns two weeks ago and the Ravens are coming off a big win against the Dolphins on a Thursday night. In the end this is too many points to be giving to a team that may well be better, and are certainly ranked higher by DVOA

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Colts @ Texans (-12.5)

The injury curse struck the Houston Texans again this week as exciting rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson tore his ACL in a non-contact practise injury and will miss the rest of the season. The Indianapolis Colts are not a good team, but with the return of Tom Savage to the Texans offence this line is too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Rams @ Giants (+3.5)

The New York Giants are coming off a bye, but there is not a lot to hang your hat on this season, whilst the LA Rams are heading up their division and are ranked second overall in DVOA. The Giants have lost all of their home games by more than four points and with the Rams coming off their own bye I don’t feel worried about the Rams giving up points.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Buccaneers @ Saints (-7.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defence is thirtieth by DVOA, which is not encouraging when you are facing Drew Brees and his third ranked offence on the road. The New Orleans Saints started off 0-2, but have won the rest of their games by a minimum of eight points, so whilst this run could end I am not going to pick it.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Cardinals @ 49ers (+2.5)

The Arizona Cardinals travel to San Francisco to face the 49ers coming off a bye but having lost their starting quarterback. I am not sure if Adrian Peterson can carry an offence without the credible threat of an effective passing game and Drew Stanton doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. The 49ers have their own problems, and have stopped keeping games close in the last couple of weeks as they start a rookie quarterback. They will not be looking to start newly acquired Jimmy Garoppolo straight away, but given how closely these two teams are ranked by DVOA, I’m going to grab the points at home for the underdog.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Washington @ Seahawks (-7.5)

I’m still kicking myself for picking Washington last week given how many injuries they have on their offensive line and that the overhaul of the receiver group has really not worked. The number of points worries me a little, but the Seattle Seahawks at home are still a formidable prospect and I just don’t see Kirk Cousins and his offence being able to keep up.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Chiefs @ Cowboys (-0.5)

I am not entirely sure how Ezekiel Elliott keeps finding ways to start games, but once against he has managed to find a way to take the field for the Dallas Cowboys. This game should be fascinating as it feels like the Kansas City Chiefs are slowing down a little from their fast start, with their defence really missing Eric Berry. A defence that ranks thirty-first against the run could really struggle against Ezekiel Elliott, but the Cowboys are only ranked one place better in overall defence and match up against the league’s second ranked offence. In a pick’em game I will back the better team, but not exactly confidently.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Raiders @ Dolphins (+3.5)

The Oakland Raiders got beat badly by the Bills last week and are on the road again as they travel to Miami to face the Dolphins. Setting aside their trade of Jay Ajayi, the Dolphins offence has struggled all season and even if Jay Cutler does start after sitting last week with his broken ribs, it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. Nor does the fact that they are ranked thirty-first by DVOA and yet the Raiders do not inspire confidence either. The Raiders defence has been poor and the offence does not look like one that should be ranked sixth by DVOA. I feel like this game will be closer than the overall DVOA rankings suggest, and if I’m getting three and a half points at home then I am going to grab them.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Lions @ Packers (+2.5)

I’m kinda tempted by the home points for the Green Bay Packers as they come off a bye and so have had time to shape the game plan and play book more to their backup quarterback Brett Hundley’s abilities. However, whilst the Detroit Lions have been struggling in recent weeks, their defence ranks much better by DVOA and in Matthew Stafford they have the kind of quarterback who in recent years has inspired confidence. The points do tempt me, but in the end I fancy the Lions to beat their divisional rivals.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

I could not have been much more wrong about the Thursday night game, which both proves that we know nothing about this season and that picking this week’s game is going to be no fun at all but here we go anyway.

Vikings @ Browns (+9.5)

This is the final of the London games this season, and once again I’m not sure what affect the travel will have on these teams as the Minnesota Vikings have gone out early and the Cleveland Browns didn’t leave until Friday. The Vikings have a really good defence and are doing enough on offence that they lead their division, whilst the Browns are searching for their first win of the season. I really don’t like what head coach Hue Jackson is doing with his quarterbacks at the moment, and whilst you can’t rule out a surprise – especially when both teams are on the road – it is hard to see anything other than a win for the Vikings. Can the Browns stay within ten points? I’m not sure, but with a struggling team on the road, and players complaining about the trip I feel like it’s more likely the Vikings win big than anything else.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Falcons @ Jets (+4.5)

The Atlanta Falcons travel to face the New York Jets this week and if we’ve learnt anything this season it is that the Falcons are not as dynamic on offence and the Jets are a much tougher opposition that anyone was thinking before the season started. It’s not that I’m super confident in how this game is going to go, but if you’re going to give me four and a half points as a home team in what could be a close game, I’m going to grab them.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Raiders @ Bills (-2.5)

The Oakand Raiders have struggled except for the two games that I have watched them and are coming off a dramatic win against the Chiefs last week. However, even with a long week they are travelling to face the Buffalo Bills who have been nothing but competitive this season. It may be that Derek Carr looked better last week, but can the Raiders keep the momentum going? In the end I feel like I have more trust in the stability of the Bills so I’ll back them to cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Bears @ Saints (-8.5)

This is a curious game to me as the Chicago Bears asked their rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky to drop back to pass just seven times last week as they ground out a win against the Panthers, and this week they travel to face a New Orleans Saints team who currently rank twenty-ninth in rush defence by DVOA. However, it is hard to see Bears keeping up with the Saints’ third ranked offence by DVOA using such a run dominated game plan and I fancy the Saints to run out winners in this one. Will they cover? The Bears have only lost two games by more than nine points, but I have a feeling this will be the third.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Colts @ Bengals (-10.5)

The Indianapolis Colts have really struggled all season, and are coming off a shutout loss against the Jaguars where they gave up ten sacks. The Cincinnati Bengals managed a half of competitive football last week before their offence stalled again, but facing the Colt’s thirtieth ranked defence by DVOA is a lot different to facing the Steelers. I could be wrong, but I think this should be a game the Bengals can use to get back on track and whilst I’m not confident about anything to do with my team, I think they can and will cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Chargers @ Patriots (-7.5)

The New England Patriots got a good win last week, but I’m not sure where the balance lies between their defence improving and facing the Falcons and the Jets the last two weeks. Still they are at home facing an LA Chargers team who have won three straight and who are coming off a solid win against the Broncos. Their only loss by more than eight points came against the Chiefs in week three, and I just fancy the Chargers to keep this one closer than eight, although I see the Patriots running out winners in the end.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

49ers @ Eagles (-12.5)

This is a hard game for me to pick as the San Francisco 49ers had kept all of their games close until last week when they were steam rollered by the Cowboys. This week they travel to face an impressive Philadelphia Eagles team with the best record in the league, but the Eagles did pick up a couple of injuries last week, with the loss of left tackle Jason Peters really worrying me. I would expect the Eagles to win this one, but this line scares me, yet at home against a team who have not found their way I’m going to nervously back one of the few things I feel relatively confident about in the league.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Panthers @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

I have no real idea what to do with this game. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have looked good on offence but their defence is ranked last by DVOA and this week they welcome a Carolina Panthers team who just lost to the Chicago Bears. The Panthers were without Luke Kuechly last week but the Pro Bowl linebacker has cleared concussion protocol and should play this week. In this game I am just going to grab the points and hope that the Panthers can put enough together against the bad Tampa defence.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Texans @ Seahawks (-5.5)

The Seattle Seahawks got a solid win on the road last week against the Giants and look to be coming to the part of the season where they come good, even if their offensive line is still troubling. This week they welcome a Houston Texans team coming off a bye and in turmoil. The comments of their owner at last week’s league meeting have caused real anger in the team and led to a ninety minute air your feelings meeting on Friday. It is possible that the Texans are going to stage a protest on Sunday, and in a notoriously difficult place to play I will back the Seahawks to be the more focussed team and cover the line.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Cowboys @ Washington (+2.5)

The Dallas Cowboys got a solid win but travel to Washington this week in a divisional game that both teams desperately need to keep in contact with the Eagles who are already three games up on both teams. Washington rate a little better by DVOA but neither team are exactly inspiring confidence at the moment. This is a game where I’m going to grab the points for the home team and hope, I could be very wrong as Ezekiel Elliot did look good last week.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Steelers @ Lions (+3.5)

The Detroit Lions are coming off a bye week having lost a strange game where their defence didn’t look that bad whilst giving up fifty-two points against the Saints the week before. However, this week they face a Pittsburgh Steelers who seem to have found their identity on offence whilst their defence is ranked second by DVOA and overall they are the best team according to DVOA. The Lions may be at home, but in this one I fancy the Steelers to continue their good run.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Broncos @ Chiefs (-7.5)

The Denver Broncos just got shut out by the LA Chargers and this week travel to face a Kansas City Chiefs team who have lost two straight for the first time since 2015. The Broncos offence has been struggling and Arrowhead stadium is not the kind of place to rediscover your form. The Chiefs offence has struggled a little bit against zone defence in the last two weeks and it is hard to know if the Chiefs can find their explosive early season form again but a healthier receiving group will help. The Broncos’ defence is still very good and as a divisional game it feels like this should be a close game, but having lost badly to the Giants and the Chargers I can’t quite bring myself pick the Broncos covering this line.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Buccaneers @ Bills (-2.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have announced that they are starting quarterback Jameis Winston despite pulling him from last week’s game due to a shoulder injury, but whether he will be effective against a Buffalo Bills defence that currently ranks second in the league by DVOA is another question. To be honest, at the moment I would say that the Bills are the better team and I would expect them to win out at home against a Bucs team that hasn’t quite come together this season.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Panthers @ Bears (+3.5)

The Chicago Bears managed to get a win in rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky’s first start, but he was only asked to make sixteen passes as opposed to fifty-four rush attempts. This is a very specific formula and they are facing a Carolina Panthers’ rush defence that ranks sixth in the league by DVOA. More worrying is that the Panthers’ offence is also coming together and I would expect them to win out after losing a close game to the Eagles last week. Sadly Luke Kuechly won’t be playing as he is suffering a concussion for the third straight year, but that is not altering my pick.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Titans @ Browns (+5.5)

The Cleveland Browns are going back to starting DeShone Kizer, which is the right long term decision for the team as they need to find out if they have their quarterback of the future, but it does seem that Hue Jackson is feeling the pressure of not having won a game this year. This week they welcome a Tennessee Titans team that have to restrict Marcus Mariota’s movements out the pocket but they got back on track with a win last week. I would expect them to win again this week but I’m not sure they will win by six points.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Saints @ Packers (+5.5)

As if Green Bay Packers didn’t have enough injury problems already with their offensive line, they’ve now lost Aaron Rogers to a broken collar bone in his throwing shoulder. The Packers’ backup quarterback Brett Hundley has been at the Packers for a couple of years but will run a different system to Rodgers and whilst he will try to keep them in the playoff hunt, this is a tough proposition. The New Orleans Saints have actually improved on defence this season, and defensive end Cameron Jordan will be looking forward to facing the Packers’ beat up line. However, whilst the points make me nervous, the Saints have won their last three games by a minimum of seven points and so I’m backing them in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Jaguars @ Colts (+2.5)

This is a much harder game for me to pick as the Indianapolis Colts have managed to win a couple of games and welcome a Jacksonville Jaguars team who lose one week and win the next. However, there is a big difference in the DVOA rankings and every Jaguars win has come on the road including their one home game win that was actually played in London so despite them giving points to the Colts I’m picking the Jaguars this week to continue the trend.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Cardinals @ Rams (-3.5)

The LA Rams are hosting the Arizona Cardinals at Twickenham stadium in London and this is a really fascinating game. The Rams continue to lead their division thanks to the turn around on offence that Sean McVay has brought about, but their defence is a surprising rank of twenty-two against the run by DVOA. Two weeks ago this would not have been a problem against a Cardinals team who had lost David Johnson and were really struggling on offence as a while. However, having traded for Adrian Peterson, they looked a much better balanced offence and were able to run out easy winners against the Buccaneers last week. How consistent this turnaround is I don’t know, and with the added variant of a trip to London I really don’t know how to pick this game. In the end, I’m going to grab the extra half point given to the Cardinals, but as much as I’m looking forward to watching this game, the pick is very much a shot in the dark.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Jets @ Dolphins (-2.5)

This is another game that I find hard to pick as I really don’t have a handle on the Miami Dolphins, who for large parts of the season have just not looked very good, but then their defence will play tough and Jay Cutler will look like a competent quarterback. They welcome a New York Jets team who have already exceeded the expectations going into the season with their three wins, and although they lost their last game, the Jets put up a credible fight against the Patriots.

Both teams have similar DVOA rankings, but this is only the Dolphins second true home game this season and with a two game winning streak I’m going to pick them nervously, but I could easily see the Jets winning this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Ravens @ Vikings (-5.5)

The Minnesota Vikings are developing one of the better home advantages in the league and welcome a Baltimore Ravens team whose offence only ranks twenty-sixth in the league. I would expect the Ravens to struggle to move the ball on the Vikings in their noisy stadium and can see the Vikings covering this line, which is why I am picking them.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Cowboys @ 49ers (+6.5)

The San Francisco 49ers have specialised in close losses this season, so the fact that they are getting six and a half points at home is pretty much getting my pick straight away. The Dallas Cowboys may have Ezekiel Elliott, but their offence has not quite played up to last year’s level although they are ranked fifth in rush DVOA. Their defence is currently ranked thirtieth by DVOA though and in this game whilst I would expect them to win, I do expect the 49ers to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Bengals @ Steelers (-5.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers found their formula last week by focussing on the run and their zone defence was able to hold up the Chiefs enough to get a win. They are rightly favourites at home against a Cincinnati Bengals team who have fought their way back into the season after a poor start. These games are usually close, and whilst I’m not sure the Bengals can win this game I do strongly fancy them to stay within six points.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Broncos @ Chargers (-1.5)

The LA Chargers don’t really have a home advantage as even in the smaller stadium they are using in their first season in LA they have been unable to sell out and have often had a large numbers of away fans in attendance. They welcome a Denver Broncos team who had problems last week as they gave the Giants their first win of the season. The Broncos have some injuries at receiver and Trevor Siemian had to come out the game last week with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder but is expected to be back this week. I find it hard to believe the Broncos will be as bad this again and it’s got to be dispiriting for the Chargers to be playing in that stadium so I’m backing the Broncos to get things back on track in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Seahawks @ Giants (+5.5)

The New York Giants got their first win of the season last week despite all the injuries at receiver and this week welcome a Seattle Seahawks team who have slipped out of the top ten rankings in defensive DVOA and whose offensive line is struggling even more than usual. I fancy the Seahawks to find a way to win, but with an offence with a clear game plan and a defence that played better last week I fancy the Giants to cover this line at home, although it does make me a bit nervous.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Falcons @ Patriots (-3.5)

I am still not quite sure how the Atlanta Falcons lost last week having been seventeen points up at half time, but they managed it and this week they travel to face the New England Patriots who had the amazing comeback against the Falcons in the last Super Bowl. The Patriots have got back to the top of their division despite a defence that still ranks last in DVOA and who has given up three hundred yards of passing to every quarterback they have faced. The question about giving up leads will follow the Falcons until they have won enough games to put it out of people’s minds, but they will be looking for revenge in this game and have a quarterback capable of exploiting the Patriots’ defensive issues even if things are not going as well for them having lost co-ordinator Kyle Shanahan.

I’m really not sure how to pick this game, and the half point strongly tempts me to pick the Falcons but having won the last two games and with them generally finding a way, I’m going to back the Patriots.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Washington @ Eagles (-4.5)

This is one of the games of the week with the Philadelphia Eagles welcoming their division rivals who they beat handily in week one. Things have improved for Washington who are the Eagles closest rivals in the NFC East division and who really need this win to stop the Eagles from taking a commanding three game lead, which would be very hard to claw back.

The Eagle are ranked second in the league by DVOA but Washington are not that far behind them and now that Washington are enough weeks away from a pre-season that didn’t seem to prepare them for the start of the season very well, I feel it will be a close game. In fact close enough that this is too many points for the Eagles to be giving away. I just hope I’m not wrong.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

So thanks to me being away this weekend, I’m suffering from a bit of a time crunch so I’m trying something for this week only, and will be writing a sentence for each game and giving you our picks, and if you’re seeing this the plan worked.

Dolphins @ Falcons (-11.5)

The Miami Dolphins take their okay defence and misfiring offence on the road to face the Falcons in Atlanta and it feels like the only question is whether this is too many points.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Bears @ Ravens (-7.5)

I’m not convinced that the Baltimore Ravens can cover these points just because they put up points against a bad Raiders defence last week and so I’m backing the Chicago Bears to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

Browns @ Texans (-9.5)

The Houston Texans have lost two key players on defence whilst finding a quarterback so it feels like they will be in a lot of shoot outs for the rest of the season and this is a lot of points to cover, but it is against the Cleveland Browns at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Lions @ Saints (-4.5)

This looks to be a cracking game as the Detroit Lions take their top ten ranked defence to face Drew Brees in the Super Dome and I’m really not sure who is going to win so I’ll grab the points in what feels like a close game.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Packers @ Vikings (+3.5)

The Green Bay Packers will always have a chance with Aaron Rodger as their quarterback despite their injuries, but Minnesota Vikings are a tough team even if they don’t have their starting quarterback so this is a pick that is all about getting a chance to pick a home underdog.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Patriots @ Jets (+9.5)

The New England Patriots travel with their high flying offence and a defence that is ranked last in the NFL by DVOA to face the New York Jets who have earned more respect than this line is giving them.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

49ers @ Washington (-9.5)

After their opening week loss to the Panthers the San Francisco 49ers have not lost by more than three points and so this line feels a little high even if Washington have been playing well in recent weeks.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Rams @ Jaguars (-2.5)

This game sees two teams with winning records that you might not have predicted before the season face each other with the LA Rams improved offence taking on a Jacksonville Jaguars defence that is ranked first in the league by DVOA and so despite my worries over their offence I’m backing the Jags.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Buccaneers @ Cardinals (+2.5)

I’m really not convinced that the addition of Adrian Peterson to the Arizona Cardinals will help solve their offensive problem s and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers really need to get themselves back on track.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Steelers @ Chiefs (-3.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ offence has not flowed properly this season, and I’m just not sure that a trip to Arrowhead stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs is the game for them to turn things around.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Chargers @ Raiders (-6.5)

There’s talk that the Oakland Raiders will have Derek Carr back despite only being a week removed from fracturing the transverse process in his back, but the LA Chargers have got their first win of the season and have kept nearly all of their games closer than this.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Giants @ Broncos (-12.5)

The New York Giants are falling apart and travelling to Denver to face the Broncos defence with mass injuries in your receiver group does not look like a formula for success.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Colts @ Titans (-3.5)

This is a game that the Tennessee Titans have to win to get things back on track having lost badly to the Texans and then followed that up by losing a winnable game against the Dolphins, but the Indianapolis Colts are the second worst team in the NFL by DVOA so they stand a good chance.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:           Colts

Bills @ Bengals (-2.5)

The Buffalo Bills have got off to a good start to the season, with impressive wins against the Broncos and Falcons in their last two weeks they stand atop the AFC East. However, they are travelling to face an improving Cincinnati Bengals team whose offence is showing signs of finding its way.

I am looking forward to seeing the Bills play, and their defence has looked good so far this season, but so has the Bengals defence and I think the men in stripes can edge this one out. I hope this isn’t a case of my heart ruling over my head.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Jets @ Browns (-1.5)

The New York Jets are defying everyone’s expectations having won two home games to currently stand 2-2 and travel to face the Cleveland Browns. The Browns will be hoping that rookie pass rusher Myles Garrett can give them a spark as he seeks to make his professional debut in the regular season as he comes back from an ankle problem. However, the Brows have been really struggling and I find it hard to pick them to win against a Jets team who may not be great, but are finding ways to compete.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Panthers @ Lions (-2.5)

Up until  the press conference where Cam Newton started making misogynist comments about a reporter things had been looking up for the Carolina Panthers on offence. The Panthers’ quarterback had driven the ball better and there looked to be more run options worked into the game as Newton continues works back from offseason shoulder surgery. How much Cam will have been distracted by various meetings, and shooting a video apology, I don’t know, but it can’t have helped.

Nor will the defence Newton faces this week, as the Detroit Lions are currently ranked fifth by defensive DVOA as opposed to the struggling Patriots defence that the Panthers faced last week. The Detroit Lions got back to winning ways last week on the road against the Vikings and I fancy them to continue that this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Titans @ Dolphins (+2.5)

The Tennessee Titans travel to face the Miami Dolphins this week, facing a game time decision to on whether to play quarterback Marcus Mariota thanks to a hamstring injury. The Titans are coming off a horrible loss last week, and whilst I don’t think that will be repeated this week, I find it hard to believe this is the trip they need to sort things out. I’m slightly worried about making this pick as the Dolphins have not inspired confidence this year, but with them getting points at their first true home game of the season, I’m picking them to keep to within three.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

49ers @ Colts (-1.5)

This is a really tricky game for me to pick as neither teams gives me a lot to work with. The Indianapolis Colts are celebrating the career of Peyton Manning, but his replacement Andrew Luck has barely practised this season thanks to injury and whilst Jacoby Brissett has demonstrated a lot more that Scott Tolzien, this was not exactly setting a high point in quarterback play. There’s not a lot for the Colts to hang their hat on at the moment, with their only win coming against the winless Browns, but they are facing an equally winless 49ers team.

The San Francisco 49ers have run two teams close in the last two weeks, including an overtime loss to the struggling Cardinals, but it is clear it is going to take time to turn things round. I am not particularly inspired by either team for this game, and so I’m reluctantly backing the Colts to beat the road team coming of an overtime time loss.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Chargers @ Giants (-3.5)

Something has to give with them winless LA Chargers traveling to face the equally winless New York Giants, unless these teams manage to engineer a draw. Still, given that the Chargers seem to specialise in close heart breaking losses, I’m going to reluctantly back them to keep this game closer than four points.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Cardinals @ Eagles (-6.5)

The Arizona Cardinals follow up their overtime win against the 49ers with a trip to Philadelphia to face an Eagles team who despite the injuries in their defence are currently 3-1. This game pits the Eagles top five by DVOA rushing game against the Cardinals top five rush defence. I would expect the Eagles to win this game, but given that they have only beaten the Chargers and Giants by a combined five points in the last two weeks, this line against the Cardinals is too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Jaguars @ Steelers (-8.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers keep finding ways to win despite disruption on and off the field for their offence. This week they face a Jacksonville Jaguars team who seem to be a week on week off proposition so far this season, and by that logic are due a good week. I don’t believe in that kind of pattern, but what I do believe is that the Jaguars’ defence will be a sterner test than the beaten up Ravens defence the Steelers faced last week. I’m not sure if the Jaguars will give themselves a genuine chance to win the game, but I fancy their defence to keep it closer than nine.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Ravens @ Raiders (-3.5)

This game pits a Baltimore Ravens team who is struggling with both offensive and defensive line play thanks to injury, against an Oakland Raiders team who lost their quarterback to a transvers process fracture last week. Whilst Derek Carr is trying to get into the game this weekend, I find it hard to believe that the team will risk him with even a relatively minor fracture in his back.

This is a game where both teams have struggled over the last two weeks, and I’m finding it hard to make a pick as neither side inspires confidence, but with the Ravens struggling against the run since Brandon Williams went down injured I’m going to reluctantly back the Raiders and Marshawn Lynch at home. I have no confidence in this pick at all.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Seahawks @ Rams (-2.5)

This should be a really interesting game. I don’t believe that the LA Rams are the third best team in the NFL as their current overall DVOA ranking would suggest, but they are definitely improved under Sean McVay and perhaps the surprising thing is that their offence is ranked better than their defence. The Seattle Seahawks travel to LA having got a big win against the Colts, but the game was competitive until late in the third quarter. The Seahawk’s defence has not looked quite as solid as their front seven might have suggested, whilst their offensive line has been truly horrible. This could be a game where Aaron Donald runs amok given the offensive line he is going against, but the question is whether I can pick the Rams to beat a good team, but having beaten the Cowboys on the road, I will nervously back them against a Seahawks team who don’t look quite right yet.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Packers @ Cowboys (-1.5)

The Dallas Cowboys lost to the Rams last week, and this week welcome a Green Bay team that are struggling with injury, but have a quarterback in Aaron Rodgers who can keep his team in pretty much any game. The Cowboys rearranged offensive line might have taken a slight step back from their recent excellence, which combined with the lack of explosive passing options has made the Cowboys struggle more than some might have expected. However, the real problem for the Cowboys has been defence, and even with the number of tackle injuries the Packers have had this season, I am backing Rodgers to find a way and so I’m taking the Packers.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Chiefs @ Texans (+1.5)

This looks to be a fascinating game with the Houston Texans seemingly having found their quarterback of the future in Deshaun Watson and who are coming off a 57-14 win face the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs. If the Texans can find a consistent offence to match with their strong defence then they will be fearsome, but this week they face a Chiefs team who keep finding a way to win, even if the score line last week flattered them a little. I do like the Chiefs a lot, and whilst I don’t think they will go unbeaten, I do fancy them to run out eventual winners in this one despite the short week, although it would not surprise me the Texans win either.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Vikings @ Bears (+3.5)

The Chicago Bears will be starting Mitch Trubisky after a bad loss to the Packers that saw Mike Glennon throw two horrible interceptions as well as lose two fumbles, although one bad snap bounced of his knee and back to the Packers. However, he will be facing a Minnesota Vikings team with a strong defence and their own problems at quarterback. The status of Sam Bradford seems to be up in the air and couple this with the injury to Dalvin Cook that means the promising rooking running back has been lost for the season, and I’m really not sure what to do in this game. The Bears could have beaten the Falcons and did beat the Steelers, so with them getting three and a half points at home and the Vikings seeming to be somewhat Jekyll and Hyde on offence, I’m really tempted to pick them, I hate making picks with this much in the air so I’m grabbing the points and hoping for the best.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Vikingssa

Saints @ Dolphins (+2.5)

The week four games kick off with another London game as the Miami Dolphins host the New Orleans Saints. This feels like a hard game to pick with only two games played by the Dolphins where we have seen good Jay Culter and bad Jay Cutler as the Dolphins narrowly beat the Chargers and then lost to the Jets. The Jets… Meanwhile the Saints got off to an 0-2 start before turning things around against the Panthers last week, but their two losses were against the Vikings and a wounded Patriots team.

I’m not hugely confident, but there is a big gap in overall DVOA ranking between these two teams, and with neither of the defences playing well I’m going to back the future Hall of Fame quarterback to get enough points.

Gee’s Pick:            Saints
Dan’s Pick:            Dolphins

Bills @ Falcons (-8.5)

There are a lot lines that Dan and I found very tricky this week, but this was not one of them. That doesn’t necessarily mean that this game will turn out how we suspect, but whilst the Atlanta Falcons have got off to a 3-0 start, the Buffalo Bills have played everyone tough with their defence ranked second by DVOA in the league and so I fancy them to keep this game closer than nine points.

Gee’s Pick:            Bills
Dan’s Pick:            Bills

Bengals @ Browns (+2.5)

The Cleveland Browns started the season with hope of demonstrating progress, and they still might, but with both Myles Garrett and Corey Coleman being limited by injuries, it seems the Browns still can’t have nice things. The Cincinnati Bengals meanwhile have got off to a miserable start, but did show some progress against the Packers despite a conservative second half costing them the game. I can see this going wrong, but I think the Bengals get their first win this week as hopefully Bill Lazor continues to improve the offence.

Gee’s Pick:            Bengals
Dan’s Pick:            Bengals

Rams @ Cowboys (-8.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have had a somewhat rocky start to the season, not helped by the fact that they don’t seem to have anything that poses a deep threat in the passing game at the moment. The welcome a LA Rams team who have definitely improved under first year head coach Sean McVay and actually sit atop the NFC West division. I am not sure they have enough to beat the Cowboys on the road, particularly as they are taking on Ezekiel Elliott with the nineteenth ranked rush defence by DVOA, but I do think their offence has enough to keep this game closer than nine points.

Gee’s Pick:            Rams
Dan’s Pick:            Rams

Lions @ Vikings (-2.5)

The Detroit Lions lost a close game, which although it felt horrible with the clock run off deciding the game, the Lions may well have not got another play off in eleven seconds anyway. The Minnesota Vikings got their offensive game plan right last week so Case Keenum could lead them to a big win over the Buccaneers. I like the Vikings’ home advantage in what could be a close game, and the Vikings will be looking to avenge two close losses to the Lions last season.

Gee’s Pick:            Vikings
Dan’s Pick:            Vikings

Titans @ Texans (+1.5)

This is a tricky game for me as the Houston Texans are home underdogs by this line, and yet they have played well on defence, and Deshaun Watson looked to have taken something of a step last week against the Patriots. However, the Tennessee Titans offence played very well against the Seattle Seahawks last week, which gives me hope that they can do it again this week and so with a fair degree of trepidation I’m backing the Titans to win this one for me.

Gee’s Pick:            Titans
Dan’s Pick:            Texans

Panthers @ Patriots (-9.5)

In my experience, I never do well when picking against the New England Patriots, but with their defence really struggling the Patriots never got close to covering the line they were given against the Texans. However, they are facing a Carolina team whose offence has not looked right all year, and who just gave up over thirty points on defence. I shouldn’t be too focused on last week, but I think there is more going wrong with Cam Newton at the moment than facing a bad defence can fix, and so I’m going to double down on the Patriots and see if they reward my faith. I would apologise to fans of the Patriots for my jinx, but I think you’ve probably won enough recently.

Gee’s Pick:            Patriots
Dan’s Pick:            Patriots

Jaguars @ Jets (+3.5)

This has all the appearance of a trap game. The Jacksonville Jaguars just got a huge win against the Baltimore Ravens in London, but they now have to travel to New York to face a Jets team who are 1-0 at home this season and showed us something at last against the Dolphins. However, I don’t think I trust the Jets offence to get anything going against the Jaguars’ defence. I hate this line, and would run a mile if I could but as I have to pick this game I am going to reluctantly pick the Jets. Mainly because I can’t bring myself to back Blake Bortles on the road for two weeks in a row, and just because of the travel the Jaguars have put in over the last week.

Gee’s Pick:            Jets
Dan’s Pick:            Jaguars

Steelers @ Ravens (+2.5)

This is likely going to be a tight game, because these teams so often seem to play close games. The Baltimore Ravens will be desperate to put in a performance after a horrible display in London, and their defence knows what they will be facing in the Pitsburgh Steelers. I think that the Steelers will likely get their offence back on track at some point, and with Ravens’ defensive tackle Brandon Williams missing this week’s game, they may well get running back Le’Veon Bell going. I kind of like the Ravens as home underdogs, and it would not surprise me if they win or cover this line, but they have too many injuries at the moment and I feel like despite their problems, the Steelers are the better team.

Gee’s Pick:            Steelers
Dan’s Pick:            Steelers

Giants @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are beat up on defence, lost to the Vikings last week, and their offence hasn’t found its feet yet this season. The New York Giants lost to a sixty-one yard field goal last week, but found something against the Eagles in the fourth quarter of last week. We are guaranteed one 0-4 team thanks to the Browns and Bengals playing each other, yet it seems unlikely we will have three of them. The Giants are getting healthier at receiver and with that extra half point I’m picking a mini recovery thanks to the banged up defence they are facing.

Gee’s Pick:            Giants
Dan’s Pick:            Giants

Eagles @ Chargers (-0.5)

The LA Chargers have got a real chance to finally get a win, but you can’t have a lot of faith in them as a team at this point. I could regret this as the Philadelphia Eagles were pretty beat up on defence last week, but the Chargers can’t even fill their small temporary stadium and in what amounts to a straight who will win pick, I am going with the team who seems more likely to find a way in a close game.

Gee’s Pick:            Eagles
Dan’s Pick:            Eagles

49ers @ Cardinals (-7.5)

This line seems off to me. The San Francisco 49ers are not a good team, but with David Johnson injured and an offensive line that just isn’t working very well, I have to face up to the fact that Bruce Arians and his coaching team are going to struggle this year. The 49ers got their offence working better against the Rams last week, and whilst that is no guarantee that they will be competitive against the Cardinals, an eight point win is too much for me to pick for this version of the Cardinals.

Gee’s Pick:            49ers
Dan’s Pick:            49ers

Raiders @ Broncos (-2.5)

The Oakland Raiders got off to a strong start, and I was very impressed with them through two weeks, but they lost heavily to Washington and now travel again to Denver to face the Broncos. The Broncos lost themselves last week, but their defence is formidable at home, and this feels like a bad spot for the Raiders. As long as Trevor Siemian gets back to looking after the ball I think they will be okay, and I have a feeling that the Raiders will fall back to 2-2, although with three road games in the opening four games that is not a bad start.

Gee’s Pick:            Broncos
Dan’s Pick:            Broncos

Colts @ Seahawks (-13.5)

I said on the podcast that I needed a very good reason to pick a team to cover when they are giving a double digit line and the Seattle Seahawks were not that team. The problem with that is as much as I don’t like their offensive line, they did put up twenty-seven points on the Titans last week. I expect the defence to look more like themselves against the Indianapolis Colts, particularly at home, but is this enough for them to cover this line? If Jacoby Brissett can move the ball then the Colts might stand a chance, but as much as I want to pick the Colts to do it, I just can’t bring myself to make the pick on the road.

Gee’s Pick:            Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:            Colts

Washington @ Chiefs (-6.5)

The Monday night game is another trial in difficult picking. The Kansas City Chiefs have played really well this season, and pit their explosive offence up against a Washington team who travelled to Oakland and got a good win. However, Arrowhead Stadium is one of the loudest in the league and the Chiefs’ explosive offence is a different prospect to the Raiders as they have enough speed that they are a threat to take any play for a big gain or a touchdown. The question is can Washington keep it close enough with an improving defence and an offence that is beginning to find its feet at last. I’m going to go with my first instinct and back Washington to stay within seven points on this one, but I could easily be wrong.

Gee’s Pick:            Washington
Dan’s Pick:            Chiefs