Tag Archives: Chip Kelly

Conference Championship Games

21 Sunday Jan 2018

Posted by in Playoffs

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Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots

This weekend’s games start with the boisterously confident Jaguars travelling to face a Patriots team who seem as buttoned down as ever despite the ESPN story that broke about tensions between the owner, his head coach and their half of fame quarterback.

The Patriots made short work of the Titans last week and have seemed destined for the AFC championship game for most of the season. The defence may have struggled early in the season and finished ranked thirty-first by DVOA but they also gave up the fifth fewest points in the regular season and look to be good enough when paired with the number one offence in the league. Lots of people are familiar with the Bill Belichick’s defensive approach of taking away what a team does best and you imagine that they will be focussing on stopping the run and making Blake Bortles beat them with his arm. We could even see them focussing on containing Bortles in the pocket as Belichick acknowledged his running ability, although you can’t exactly rely on what little information you get out of a Belichick press conference.

On the other side of the ball the numbers still seem to be there for Tom Brady who has had a couple of niggling injuries this season and had another scare this week when he jammed his hand in practise. There has been a lot of speculation regarding Brady’s hand but the reports are that he sustained a cut to his thumb in practice and that has had to be stitched, but Brady practised Friday and should start the game. The big mismatch for the Patriots’ offence will be Gronkowski as it usually is, but they will face a stern test from the best defence in the league by DVOA. If there is a formula for beating Brady in the playoffs it involves being able to get pressure with four and good coverage. The Jaguars have the players to do this but the Patriots are likely to use bigger personnel packages to challenge the defence and take advantage of a rush defence that finished the regular season ranked twenty-sixth by DVOA.

The Jaguars come into this game full of confidence having won their first two playoff games in a long time but their defence whilst ranking number one in pass defence by DVOA, only ranks twentieth against tight ends and fifteenth against running backs when looking at DVOA against specific types of receiver. The Jaguars already have a tendency to rush four and cover as mentioned above, but if they can’t stop Brady finding his tight ends and running backs then we know Brady has the patience and skill to keep picking up short gains and drive the length of the field to score.

The offence for the Jaguars looked much better last week and they used play action well to get Bortles throws he is comfortable with. A lot will rest on Leonard Fournette’s ankle and whether he can play as he did in the first quarter of last week’s game. That said, whilst TJ Yeldon is a very different running back that might lack the power of Fournette to take on stacked fronts, he proved effective catching the ball against the Steelers and had three times for fifty-seven yards giving him the most receiving yards in the game. If Bortles can continue to spread the ball around like he did last week then the Jaguars might be able to eke out the points they need, but you have to think that he will facing a Patriots defence that will be disciplined in their run defence, focussing on not allowing Bortles to scramble as well as the running backs, and try to make Bortles beat them by making accurate throws into tight windows.

I think that most people would still give the edge to the Patriots but the Jaguars faced that last week as well and they are probably the team the Patriots least wanted to face given their resemblance to other teams that have beaten them in the post-season in the past. It should be a fascinating game.

Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles

The NFC conference game pits the first seed Eagles against the second seed Vikings who finished the season with the same 13-3 record and who were the fourth and fifth ranked teams by DVOA at the end of the regular season.

The Eagles eked out a win last week against the Falcons on the back off a controlled offence performance and a defence that kept the Falcons from getting two hundred yards passing or one hundred yards rushing. The Eagles defence finished the season ranked fifth in the league by DVOA and were top ten against both the run and the pass. The strength of the defence is their line and in Fletcher Cox they have one of the best interior linemen in the league. They will try to pressure the Vikings and will need to as their secondary could struggle to contain the Vikings’ excellent receivers.

However, if the Eagles are to win this game then their offence has to do a job with their backup quarterback. The game plan last week was to run the ball to control the game and give Nick Foles the kind of throws he can make to win the game. They may have only scored fifteen points with one touchdown and run the ball eighty-six yards but it was enough for them to the win. In Nick Foles they have a backup with a lot more experience than most and whilst no one expects him to replicate the amazing form he had for one year under Chip Kelly, the Eagles have proved they can be competitive with him. However, they are facing a fearsome defence that is co-ordinated by one of the best defensive minds in the game.

The Vikings defence finished the season ranked second in the league by DVOA and excellent players at all three levels of the defence. They may show blitz a lot with Mike Zimmer’s trademark double A gap look where two linebackers line up on the defensive line from where they can then blitz or drop into coverage. Unlike the Jaguars’ number one unit, the Vikings are pretty evenly balanced against the run and the pass so this scheme matchup of Zimmer against Doug Pederson and his offensive staff should be an intriguing schematic battle.

The Vikings offence has played remarkably well when you consider that they have lost both a starting quarterback and running back. Still, Case Keenum has been playing since week two of the regular season and has had a really productive break out season culminating in a last second win last week. He is ably helped by one of the best pairings of receivers in the league and the Eagles will have their work cut out to cover both Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. The Vikings may not run the ball brilliantly, in fact they only ranked seventeenth by DVOA, but they do it often and well enough for it to enable their play fakes to be effective and so they will try to keep the Eagles defence guessing.

The Vikings will be without their home field advantage but were competitive on the road and I think have a slight edge in this game with the Eagles not having Carson Wentz. However, if the Eagles stay in this game the Philadelphia crowd will make life very difficult and this could be a very close game.

AAF: Week One – 49ers O-Line

18 Sunday Sep 2016

Posted by in Amateur Adventures in Film

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For my first amateur adventure in film of the season, Dan asked me to take a look at the Los Angeles Rams’ visit to the San Francisco 49ers, and after putting out an appeal on social media Simon from the Gridiron Gentlemen was kind enough to suggest I look at their offensive line to see how they tamed the Rams.

I am by no means an expert on line play, but I do enjoy watching defensive lines so it will be nice to turn the tables for the week.

I think it may be impossible to completely shut out Aaron Donald, but he had a remarkably quiet game. The 49ers’ line was certainly good in pass protection, often giving Blaine Gabbert a clean pocket, even if that didn’t always result in a completed pass. In fact, several times he simply saw the space open up before him and scrambled for a gain or first down. The Rams didn’t get a sack in this game, and the closest they came was probably when Donald beat left guard Zane Beadles when matched up one on one with him but couldn’t get to Gabbert before he threw the ball and was called for roughing the passer. This was not the only occasion Donald got through the line, he put a lovely swim move on centre Daniel Kilgore in the third quarter when the Ram’s blitzed five, but Gabbert was able to get rid of the ball or escape for a run. It may have resulted in a three and out for the offence, but they avoided the turnover and in so doing they negated what should have been one of the strengths of the Rams.

The run blocking was less obviously good overall, but the highlight of the week for me watching the line was a play that Simon mentioned on twitter, which really was beautiful. At the end or their second drive in the first quarter, the 49ers were 2nd & 11 on the Rams’ 11 yard line when Carlos Hyde ran in the touchdown thanks to some beautiful blocking. The 49ers lined up with 12 personnel in a shotgun formation with both tight ends to the right of the formation, one on the line and one behind, and Carlos Hyde stood to the left of Blaine Gabbert. On the snap of the ball right guard Andrew Tiller pulled left and sealed Rams’ end Robert Quinn whilst left tackle Joe Staley crashed down on Cam Thomas playing tackle and then blocked middle linebacker Alec Ogletree. For the Rams, Mark Barron who is listed as a linebacker/safety and lined up close to the line had correctly identified the gap the 49ers were aiming for, but tight end Garrett Celek had also pulled left and cleared out Barron easily, allowing Hyde to run in the touchdown whilst barely being touched before he crosses the goal line. There weren’t too many such exciting run plays in this game, but as the line develops in their new scheme under head coach Chip Kelly this play serves as a tantalising example of what might be possible.

Dan asked me to watch this game as he wanted to know what happened, to which I think the answer is that the Rams offence was ineffective, which is hardly unusual, but also their offensive line was able to control what should have been one of the Rams big advantages. The 49ers face a very tough ask this week in Carolina, and the offence is hardly flowing but it’s possible that their line at least is heading in the right direction.

The End of the Regular Season, Aaron Donald on Coaching Tape, and Week 17 Picks

03 Sunday Jan 2016

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It is one of those tricks of time that the last games of the regular season are being played today, and it has been a long season, yet it doesn’t feel like five minutes since the season started. One of the good things about being a fan of American football is that you go into the cold gloom of January with excitement for playoffs, although as a Bengals fan there is usually a fair amount of trepidation.

The end of season head coach firings have already begun, with Chip Kelly being let go from the Philadelphia Eagles earlier this week. It feels like an odd time to do it, and I am not sure I buy the reasons stated by the team as no one from other NFL teams are going to be contacting him this week. It also seems strange to me that you would hand over control of your roster to someone, and then fire them after a solitary season, but then again I am not in the building so it could be seen as making a strong decision to stop something that has gone wrong as quickly as possible. Only time will tell, but there will need to be some consistent effort in Philadelphia to establish if there is a long term plan in place. I will be curious to see what route the Eagles take next as well as if Chip Kelly gets another chance. Kelly has already stated that he doesn’t want control over personnel in the future, but with all the new training ideas he was trying it was exciting to have him in the league, even if I am not sure if his up tempo offence, with the results it also has for his defence, can lead to sustained success in the NFL.

It is kind of frightening that the offseason will start on Monday, with the annual coach firings, and all that means for the staff involved. It is very easy to forget in amongst all the news stories, that their will be numerous families moving cities, and various coaches nervously waiting to see if they are staying or will be looking for an opportunity elsewhere. It will also see the usual jockeying for coaches, and trying to hire from the teams in the playoffs. In addition to all the usual coaching and player moves, we have three franchises that could be moving to LA. This is always a strange topic UK fans as it is incredibly rare for a team to move location over here, where as it is not uncommon for NFL franchises to change cities, and two of the teams in flux have played in Los Angeles before. The NFL has become a year round news generator, with perhaps the only true time off for those working for the teams being between OTAs and the start of training camp, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves; there is still a week of football left followed by the playoffs.

I decided to treat myself this week with the coaching tape given that it won’t make sense to look at something from a team not going to the playoffs next week so I took a look at the performance of the St Louis Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald.

The Rams were playing the Seattle Seahawks in Seattle, and not only did they win this game, but they managed to sack quarterback Russell Wilson six times and hit him a further thirteen. Now Aaron Donald may have only hit Wilson twice in this game and failed to add to his tally of eleven sacks that has him inside the top ten for sacks in the league, but he still had a big effect in this game.

The first thing that became obvious to me was Donald generating a consistent pressure up the middle, sometimes slipping between offensive linemen, working round as part of a stunt, or simply beating his man. The Seattle line struggled to block him with only one player, and frequently used two players to control Donald. In fact, there was one snap in the fourth quarter where despite the Rams rushing only four players, three Seahawk offensive linemen blocked Donald. What I was not expecting to see was Donald drop into shallow zones as part of a zone blitz, but he did this five times in this game and the Rams were not punished when this happened.

Although his stats were not gaudy, Donald did get pressure, only missing out on getting a sack by small margins on several snaps, and he was also disruptive in the running game. He demonstrated the ability to shed blocks to make tackles, but as well as making tackles or getting pressure by getting past or shedding his blocker, he interrupted several plays simply by driving his blocker back. He effectively stopped the run several times with this simple drive, and on one play I am still not sure how Russell Wilson completed a pass given that Donald drove the Seahawk’s right tackle back into Wilson as he threw the ball. Even when double teamed he was sometimes able to affect the play as his push was directed towards the running back, clogging up the running lane. He also created a penalty when JR Sweezy held Donald as he went passed and took him to the ground.

I don’t think Aaron Donald struck me as having quite the same explosive first step as Geno Atkins who I watch week in week out, but in his second year in the league Donald has established himself as one of the top defensive players in the league. He constantly has to be accounted for and creates room for the players around him to work as well as directly contributing against both the run and pass. I am looking forward to seeing how the Rams play next season, and if the strong finish they have put together can finally lead to them competing in the division as so often has been suggested in recent years.

It is going to be an odd week to pick games given there are a lot of teams with little to play for, or teams resting players ahead of the playoffs, but for the final time in this season’s competition, here are Dan and mine’s picks. Let’s hope they are better than last week…

Gee:     Week 16   6-10                        Overall   125-115

Dan:    Week 16   6-10                        Overall   116-124

Saints @ Falcons (-4.5)

The Saints surprised me last week, but the Falcons seem to be finishing the season strongly and will be looking to build for next season, whilst things look to be difficult again for the Saints next year.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Jets @ Bills (+2.5)

The Bills are talking about this game being their Super Bowl, but the plain fact for me is that one team just beat the Patriots and need this game to get to the playoffs, and the other gives away too many penalties and are inconsistent. I’m backing what I think is the better team in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Jets

Lions @ Bears (-1.5)

The Bears have done well this season, and look to be building something going forward although I am sure the fans in Chicago will be hoping to hold onto offensive coordinator Adam Gase given the job he has done with Jay Cutler this year. However, whilst the Lions may have the same record as the Bears this season, they are 5-2 since their bye week and new coordinator Jim Bob Cooter seems to have found a formula to get the Detroit offence running. I think the Lions finish the season strongly as I trust them more than the Bears.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Ravens @ Bengals (-7.5)

The Bengals are heading into the playoffs with a lot of questions, but AJ McCarron did okay in the first half against the Broncos, and I think they will have enough to deal with the Ravens in Cincinnati. However, I am looking forward to seeing what Ryan Mallet does this week, but I don’t think the Ravens have enough to win this one and with the Bengals needing to win to push the Broncos for the second seed, I’m hoping they cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Steelers @ Browns (+9.5)

The Browns are limping to the end of the season, and somehow Johnny Manziel entered the concussion protocol on Wednesday so it feels like they season is ending the way it has gone since week one. The Steelers need this win to try to get into the playoffs and I think they will cover this with their high powered offence being too much for the Browns.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Washington @ Cowboys (-2.5)

I am really not sure what to do with this game as the talk seems to be that with nothing to play for, that Washington will be resting players, but almost on principle I refuse to back the Cowboys, even in Dallas.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Titans @ Colts (-6.5)

This is a horrible game to pick, as the Titans have lost a lot of games, whilst we don’t actually know who will be playing quarterback for the Colts as their season falls apart. They need ten results to go their way for the Colts to make the playoffs, and I’m not sure that the one they have under their own control will go their way, yet alone that they will win by a clear seven points.

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Patriots @ Dolphins (+9.5)

The Patriots have had so many injuries this season, and yet still I think they will win this game against a Dolphins team that have been simply bad this year. However, the Patriots will be looking to keep their key players healthy so I don’t see them winning by ten points.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Eagles @ Giants (-2.5)

Often when a team does lose a head coach during  the season, it can produce an immediate reaction, but given how the Eagles have been playing, plus a Giants team at home with a point to prove I can’t look past the Giants in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Jagaurs @ Texans (-6.5)

The Houston Texans may be coming into form at the right moment, but I’m not so sure that their offence is that good. Whilst the Jaguars have consistently been unpredictable, they have a great core on offence and I’m not so sure that the Texans are going to win by a clear seven points.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Chargers @ Broncos (-8.5)

The Broncos defence looked like best unit in the game in the second half of their win against the Bengals, and this week welcome a Chargers team that are headed into an offseason of change. I think that the Broncos will win, but I am not sure they are going to win by nine points given the way their offence is playing.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Raiders @ Chiefs (-6.5)

The Chiefs are on such a run of form, with a defence that is as scary as anybody’s in the league. The Raiders have some good young players, but Derek Carr has faded a bit down the stretch and I think this is a game where the Chiefs will run out comfortable winners.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Rams @ 49ers (+3.5)

The Rams have now won three in a row since firing their offensive coordinator, and are on something of a run, where as the 49ers will be looking forward to the offseason and getting this year behind them.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Seahawks @ Cardinals (-6.5)

The Cardinals are such an aggressive team, and if this was truly competitive game then I might think about them covering this game, but at the end of the year with nothing really on the line in a divisional game I’m not sure I can seem them winning by seven against a Seahawks team who will be looking to right the ship after a bad loss last week.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Buccaneers @ Panthers (-10.5)

The Panthers might be better off not having the pressure of an unbeaten season hanging over them, but I’m not sure how they will play in this one so I can’t bring myself to back them by eleven points even if the Buccaneers are not finishing this season strongly.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Vikings @ Packers (-3.5)

Right now I think the Vikings are the better team, with a tough defence and an offence who know who they are and how to get the job done. I don’t expect the same performance from the Packers back in Green Bay as they had last week, but with injury worries on their o-line as well as the problems they’ve had all year on offence, I don’t expect it to be that much better.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

A Coach’s Time of Year

09 Sunday Aug 2015

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With training camps open across the NFL, I have been looking back at my offseason reading and thinking about something that is talked about in America when comparing the major sports. It is often said that baseball is a GMs’ league, basketball is a players’ league, but that the NFL is a coaches’ league. This is an oversimplification for all of the sports, but in the NFL the level of competition is such that a coach can only do so much to overcome a real deficit in talent given how fine the margins are between winning, but this is the part of the season where a coach really demonstrates what does make the NFL a coaches’ league.

A football coach has to be more than just someone who gives an inspired half-time speech, in fact there is only so often he can pull that trick given the frequency of games, and how often it is do or die time. In fact it seems to me that there is so much to do for a head coach that we routinely oversimplify their role when judging them. There are thousands of hours of planning, preparation, and training that goes into getting a team to the game, yet alone managing the play calls, in-game adjustments, the clock, and liaising with your team of coaches. There is so much more to their job than whether you should run or pass a yard out from the end zone with twenty-six seconds left in the Super Bowl, although when you have one of the best short yardage backs in the game perhaps you should have run.

However, whilst there has been talk of how the Seahawks are going to come back from that loss, and the scars that decision will have left on Pete Carroll, having read Carroll’s book on his coaching philosophy I think that this has been over blown. His whole coaching philosophy is built round competition, and specifically always competing to win forever. I don’t know how many NFL coaches have gone away, sat down and deliberately written down their philosophy in such a structured way, but I’m pretty sure that a focus around always competing with yourself to do things better than they have been done before is likely to deal with a set back like losing the Super Bowl in such a heart breaking manner pretty well.

So why is this time of year so important to the coaches? The answer is pretty straight forward, time. During the marathon of the season there is so much time spent dealing with recovery, installing the game plan, travel, and dealing with matters that crop up that there is only so much time a coach can spend actually working with their players. It is in training camp where a coach gets to work for a prolonged period setting the tone for the upcoming season. It is also the time where a coach has almost double his game day roster, and so whilst you never want to over work your players, it is possible to get a huge amount of work done and to get in all the reps you want. This is where there is time to work on technique, getting the rookies and free agents steeped in how your team plays football, the calls, the structure of your playbook, and getting your timing down. These are all standard parts of training camp that remain true even if the old fashioned two-a-day practices and some of the more confrontational contact drills are becoming relics of the past.

There has been talk for years that the preseason is too long, and that coaches only two of the pre-season games to get their teams ready. I wouldn’t presume to know if this is true or not, but just trying to keep up with the news coming out of a training camp is a mission in itself. Like much of the pre-season content, it is filled with optimism. Players that are in the best shape of their lives, players on the come back trail from injury, the new picks looking good already. The proof is coming though, we have the NFL Hall of Fame game tonight, and next we’ll start getting actual football.

I wrote last year about how there is plenty to fascinate during the offseason and I am really looking forward to the up-coming preseason. It was quite hard for me to narrow down the teams I was going to watch through the preseason, but in the end I managed to get the list down to four. The Bengals were a given, and they are the team that I will understand best due to following them with the obsessive interest of the fan. The next obvious team was the Houston Texans, not just because I am such a huge fan of JJ Watt, but because they are this year’s team being covered by the TV series Hard Knocks. I will be fascinated to see how Watt practices as his work ethic is widely praised, but it will also be great to follow the series and watch all the games.

I am planning to watch two more teams, and after my offseason reading it was actually fairly easy to identify the theme if not whittle down to the two remaining teams. It became obvious to me that what I love about Football is not just the physicality and spectacle, but the tactics involved and the coaching that going into the games. So if I was going to focus on well coached teams who would be the other teams I would watch this season?

The Cardinals managed to get to the playoffs despite losing two starting quarterbacks and in my opinion were one of the best coached teams of last year. They have lost their defensive coordinator as Todd Bowles has become head coach of the New York Jets, but given the fantastic job Bruce Arians and his staff did I really want to take a look at them this preseason. It is also going to be interesting to see what effect the hiring of the NFL’s first female coach will have, even if it is only for the span of training camp. Doctor Jen Welter has played professional football for fourteen years, has a master’s degree in sports psychology and PhD in psychology, and so is a pretty incredible person just from the get go so I hope things go well with her working with the inside linebackers during camp.

The other team I am going to be watching is one that has dominated the offseason news when it has not been focussed on deflated footballs or other matters of league discipline management. I first really went all in with Chip Kelly whilst listening to him on the Ross Tucker’s podcast, and I was seriously impressed. However, since he’s been given the GM responsibility Kelly has demonstrated that he is not afraid to do things his way, but I’m not entirely sold. At the start of the offseason moves I could see an underlying plan, that he would trust his system to generate offense, and that he would invest in players on the defensive side of the ball. Then Kelly started signing expensive running backs and letting go of starting offensive linemen. There is also the small matter of not having an established starter at quarterback and not making the playoffs last season. I will be fascinated to watch what all the turmoil of the offseason produces this year, and shall have to make a point of watching the TV feed for some of their games as you simply do not pick up the tempo difference between the Eagles’ offence and other teams when you are watching the condensed cut or coaches’ tape.

So roll on the first game this evening as the football season gets closer and closer to starting.