AAF: Deshaun Watson

05 Sunday Nov 2017

Posted by gee4213 in Amateur Adventures in Film

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Breno Giacomini, Deshaun Watson, Dwight Freeney, Earl Thomas, Houston Texans, Justin Coleman, Kam Chancellor, Michael Bennett, Nazair Jones, Ryan Griffin, Seattle Seahawks, Will Fuller

I am running out of time a little bit this weekend, but with the injury curse hitting the Houston Texans and me planning to take a look at their offence versus the Seattle Seahawks defence – I thought I would look at the good and bad of Deshaun Watson whilst I still could this season.

To do this I’ve picked two plays from the first and second quarters which represent the pass that stood out to me, the interception, Watson’s longest run and the sack that lost the most yards.

The first of these plays was a fifty-nine yard touchdown pass to Will Fuller. In a way this is a simple play. The Texans lined up in 11 personel, with tight end Ryan Griffin initially lined up wide left and then motioning back onto the line whilst Deshaun Watson is stood back from the play to complete the shotgun formation. The Texans then run a simple play action pass, with the fake being enough to hold Seahawks safety Earl Thomas at his starting position for long enough that he is not able to turn and get over to a streaking Fuller to stop him catching the ball behind the defence and scoring a touchdown. The impressive thing about Watson on this play is that Dwight Freeney is coming off the right side of the defence and it is running back Lamar Miller who has to block him. This is not an easy assignment and Fuller can only shove Freeney to delay the rush, but whilst keeping his eyes downfield Watson shuffles in the pocket to avoid the rush and then throws a deep ball over the defence for Fuller to get under and catch falling into the end-zone.

If that was the good, the equalising touchdown for the Seahawks was an interception thrown by Watson on his next series demonstrates some of his youthfulness. Again the Texans lined up with 11 personnel in a shotgun formation, this time on third and ten, with Watson executing a straight drop and throwing an interception. Watson does look right before locking onto Deandre Hopkins coming across the field from the left and throwing the ball, but Earl Thomas simply sits in his starting position watching Watson and jumps the route to intercept the ball and takes it back for a touchdown. I have no way of knowing what Watson’s read should be for this play, but given that Earl Thomas is one of the league’s best safeties, I have to imagine that accounting for him should be part of this and this will be a pass Watson would love to have back..

The run that I want to talk about demonstrates the danger of an athletic quarterback. The Texans are lined up with 11 personnel again, still with Watson in a shotgun position but with Lamar Miller lined up to the left of Watson and further back while Ryan Griffin lined up as full back to the left and further forward of Watson. This is another play action play, but this time defensive tackle Nazair Jones gets good pressure while being held up by right tackle Breno Giacomini, but the pair are very close to Watson when he looks up from the play action hand off. Watson evades the pressure and having seen that Kam Chancellor and both linebackers of the Seahawks have dropped back into zones leaving plenty of space in front of him; Watson takes off and runs for a first down before he has to slide – a very safe way for Watson to pick up eighteen yards.

Towards the end of the second half on second and eight with fifty-two seconds left on the clock, the Texans line up in shotgun with an empty backfield. I am pretty certain they are in 11 personnel with Ryan Griffin lined up to the right of the line, and running back Alfred Blue lined up wide right, but it is hard to make out Blue’s number to be certain. What is clear is that the Seahawks are lined up in a nickel with corner Justin Coleman looking into the backfield from the right side of the defence. Coleman is lined up in a press position opposite the Texans’ stacked receivers on the left hand side of their formation, but when the ball is snapped Coleman immediately rushes the passer and does not get picked up at all. Coleman rushing from the right and Michael Bennett who lined up as left end meet as they sack Deshaun Watson. In this play Watson starts of looking right, and doesn’t sense Coleman’s pressure until it is too late for him avoid the sack.

So what do I make of this overall? There is a huge amount of potential in Deshaun Watson, and whilst his interceptions ultimately cost the Texans the game, without his play they would never have been in the game and how many rookie quarterbacks could throw for over four hundred yards against the Seahawks’ defence in Seattle. Yes Watson is athletic, but the pocket movement on the touchdown to Fuller is as exciting as the long run play. The injury is yet another frustrating one for a league that seems beset by them to franchise players, and it really sucks to have the rookie season of an exciting prospect cut short like this. However, it does seem like the Texans have a quarterback they can develop and I’m sure everyone will be excited about him next season.

Week Nine Picks

05 Sunday Nov 2017

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition

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NFL, Week 9 Picks

Falcons @ Panthers (-2.5)

This is a strange game for me to pick as the Atlanta Falcons look to be suffering from a Super Bowl hangover, and the Carolina Panthers have been up and down all season. The Falcons offence has not clicked under new coordinator Steve Sarkisian whilst the Panthers have just traded Kelvin Benjamin to a fair amount of consternation from the locker room. Given that I have no confidence in how this game is going to turn out I am going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Falcons

Bengals @ Jaguars (-4.5)

This game pits a defence that already has two ten sack games against an offensive line that has struggled all season. I have no confidence in the Cincinnati Bengals, but this also seems a lot of points for a team whose offence has not been great going against a pretty decent defence. In the end the Jacksonville Jaguars seem to win big or lose, and I can’t pick the Bengals to win on the road so will back the Jaguars and fervently hope to be wrong.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Jaguars

Broncos @ Eagles (-7.5)

The Denver Broncos have struggled with their offence in recent weeks and are turning to Brock Osweiler to give them a spark. It is a tough ask from the Broncos to win in Philadelphia given how well the Eagles are playing but this line does give me pause. The Eagles have just lost their left tackle Jason Peters for the season and the Broncos defence is still ranked second in the league by DVOA. However, the Broncos are coming off a three game losing streak where the closest game was still ten points, and in the end I can’t quite bring myself to back them. I could regret this.

Gee’s Pick: Eagles
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

Ravens @ Titans (-5.5)

This is another game that I don’t know what to do given that the Baltimore Ravens have been up and down all this season and the Tennessee Titans have not exactly inspired confidence. The Titans are coming off a bye and will be hoping the rest will have helped Marcus Mariota get over his hamstring problem fully. However, it still took the Titans overtime to beat the Browns two weeks ago and the Ravens are coming off a big win against the Dolphins on a Thursday night. In the end this is too many points to be giving to a team that may well be better, and are certainly ranked higher by DVOA

Gee’s Pick: Ravens
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

Colts @ Texans (-12.5)

The injury curse struck the Houston Texans again this week as exciting rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson tore his ACL in a non-contact practise injury and will miss the rest of the season. The Indianapolis Colts are not a good team, but with the return of Tom Savage to the Texans offence this line is too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Colts

Rams @ Giants (+3.5)

The New York Giants are coming off a bye, but there is not a lot to hang your hat on this season, whilst the LA Rams are heading up their division and are ranked second overall in DVOA. The Giants have lost all of their home games by more than four points and with the Rams coming off their own bye I don’t feel worried about the Rams giving up points.

Gee’s Pick: Rams
Dan’s Pick: Rams

Buccaneers @ Saints (-7.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defence is thirtieth by DVOA, which is not encouraging when you are facing Drew Brees and his third ranked offence on the road. The New Orleans Saints started off 0-2, but have won the rest of their games by a minimum of eight points, so whilst this run could end I am not going to pick it.

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Saints

Cardinals @ 49ers (+2.5)

The Arizona Cardinals travel to San Francisco to face the 49ers coming off a bye but having lost their starting quarterback. I am not sure if Adrian Peterson can carry an offence without the credible threat of an effective passing game and Drew Stanton doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. The 49ers have their own problems, and have stopped keeping games close in the last couple of weeks as they start a rookie quarterback. They will not be looking to start newly acquired Jimmy Garoppolo straight away, but given how closely these two teams are ranked by DVOA, I’m going to grab the points at home for the underdog.

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: 49ers

Washington @ Seahawks (-7.5)

I’m still kicking myself for picking Washington last week given how many injuries they have on their offensive line and that the overhaul of the receiver group has really not worked. The number of points worries me a little, but the Seattle Seahawks at home are still a formidable prospect and I just don’t see Kirk Cousins and his offence being able to keep up.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Chiefs @ Cowboys (-0.5)

I am not entirely sure how Ezekiel Elliott keeps finding ways to start games, but once against he has managed to find a way to take the field for the Dallas Cowboys. This game should be fascinating as it feels like the Kansas City Chiefs are slowing down a little from their fast start, with their defence really missing Eric Berry. A defence that ranks thirty-first against the run could really struggle against Ezekiel Elliott, but the Cowboys are only ranked one place better in overall defence and match up against the league’s second ranked offence. In a pick’em game I will back the better team, but not exactly confidently.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

Raiders @ Dolphins (+3.5)

The Oakland Raiders got beat badly by the Bills last week and are on the road again as they travel to Miami to face the Dolphins. Setting aside their trade of Jay Ajayi, the Dolphins offence has struggled all season and even if Jay Cutler does start after sitting last week with his broken ribs, it doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. Nor does the fact that they are ranked thirty-first by DVOA and yet the Raiders do not inspire confidence either. The Raiders defence has been poor and the offence does not look like one that should be ranked sixth by DVOA. I feel like this game will be closer than the overall DVOA rankings suggest, and if I’m getting three and a half points at home then I am going to grab them.

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Lions @ Packers (+2.5)

I’m kinda tempted by the home points for the Green Bay Packers as they come off a bye and so have had time to shape the game plan and play book more to their backup quarterback Brett Hundley’s abilities. However, whilst the Detroit Lions have been struggling in recent weeks, their defence ranks much better by DVOA and in Matthew Stafford they have the kind of quarterback who in recent years has inspired confidence. The points do tempt me, but in the end I fancy the Lions to beat their divisional rivals.

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Lions

What Do They Want?

02 Thursday Nov 2017

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

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Bob McNair, NFL, Owners

And so the NFL circus continues with the trade deadline generating more trades than usual, as well as the continuing saga of the Ezekiel Elliot suspension. More important though is the swirl of stories that continue to surround the ongoing player protests.

Such is the tumult that there are now questions beginning to be asked about whether Rodger Goodell will keep his job. It is hard as an outsider to speculate, but the fact that there was a conference call of seventeen team owners hosted by Jerry Jones to discuss Goodell’s contract extension seems to indicate that there is absolute support.

The curious thing about this to me is that whilst I have many criticisms of the way Goodell has approached his tenure as commissioner, the handling of the player protests is not one of them. It seems as if there is a section of owners who want the problem to go away as it causing them financial problems and they are concerned that Goodell has failed to solve the problem. The difference with this one compared to the other problems Goodell has created is that this one is apparently touching the bottom line.

However, I’m not sure that this is one is solvable. The number of players protesting during the anthem was relatively small until President Trump decided to raise it in a speech. There was plenty of work going on behind the scenes, but Trump’s decision to make it a focus and the Vice President’s stunt of leaving the game fanned the flames and for many successfully framed this as matter of patriotism and respect for the armed forces rather than a discussion about social inequality.

The problem is that there are a wide group of players with different reasons for protesting, and whilst I find it positive that discussions between the league and players are occurring, there is no unified force and so it may be hard to get everyone to stand in return of programs being discussed. However, any attempt to force the players to stand is only going to inflame the situation.

I don’t have any sources or a transcript so I can’t know the context of the Houston Texans’ owner Bob McNair when he said, “we can’t have the inmates running the prison” which he has apologised for and said was never meant literally. It has been suggested it was in reference to the leagues office rather than players and league employee Troy Vincent sought an apology at the time. What did happen was that around forty of the Texans knelt during the anthem at the weekend and a number of people have commented that this has revealed McNair’s true feelings.

Given the complexities involved, and how difficult it will be to solve, I’m not entirely sure what some of the owners are expecting – for once they are facing a problem that can’t be solved by throwing more money at it. This is a group of powerful individuals used to getting their own way but perhaps they are going to find there are limits after all.

There is no good way to segue way from such weighty topics to a picks competition, so here is our overall record and picks for tonight.

Gee: Week 8 6-7 Overall 66-54
Dan: Week 8 9-4 Overall 62-58

Bills @ Jets (+2.5)

The Buffalo Bills travel to face the New York Jets, and this should be a competitive game. The Jets have played tough all year, but are welcoming a Bills team who have found their own formula under new head coach Sean McDermott and are coming off an impressive win against the Raiders. However, the Bills have only won one game on the road so far this season and in a divisional game they might find the going tough. However, I think they are the better team and so whilst I am tempted by the points given to a home team on a Thursday night, I’m going to back the Bills to win this one.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

AAF: Cameron Jordan

29 Sunday Oct 2017

Posted by gee4213 in Amateur Adventures in Film

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Brett Hundley, Bryan Bulaga, Cameron Jordan, David Bakhtiari, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Richard Rodgers

I decided to watch Cameron Jordan on coaching tape having been impressed with his performance against the Detroit Lions in week six, but the week seven game against the Green Bay Packers was very different. This was probably because both David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga started for the Packers this week.

Cameron Jordan played mostly left end in this game, although he did occasionally line up on the right standing up, or on the right as part of a 3-3 nickel look. As a consequence he spent most of this game going up against right tackle Brian Bulaga unless the blocking scheme sent Bulaga somewhere else. In fact the one quarterback hit Jordan did get was against a play action pass where tight end Richard Rodgers was assigned to block him and couldn’t hold up which allowed Joran to get to Brett Hundley whose pass was incomplete. Jordan was able to flush Hundley out the pocket on one other play when he lined up on the right and was able to get into the backfield but otherwise he was only able to apply pressure whilst fighting an offensive linemen.

Despite usually lining up in a four point stance, it was not so much first step and quickness that Jordan was using as speed to power rushes, but for the most part Bulaga held up, although Jordan was able to push the pocket more than once. In fact, on the final drive in the fourth quarter he was able to push Bulaga back and get a hand on a pass to break up the play. This was not the first time Jordan got his hand in a passing lane but was the only time he got a hand to the ball.

For me this is one of the harder bits of coaching tape to evaluate. It is pretty easy to comment on a speed rusher getting lots of pressure, but when the stats are quiet and there’s an equal battle going on between defensive lineman and offensive lineman it is hard to evaluate if you don’t know all the nuances and are not a coaching expert. To my eye Cameron Jordan held up in the run, was strong enough to hold up blocks, was double teamed several times, and did manage to get some pressure. It was not the kind of game where Jordan would definitely catch the eye, but it feels like he had a solid game and the Saints defence definitely looks to have improved on defence.

Week Eight Picks

29 Sunday Oct 2017

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NFL, Week 8 Picks

I could not have been much more wrong about the Thursday night game, which both proves that we know nothing about this season and that picking this week’s game is going to be no fun at all but here we go anyway.

Vikings @ Browns (+9.5)

This is the final of the London games this season, and once again I’m not sure what affect the travel will have on these teams as the Minnesota Vikings have gone out early and the Cleveland Browns didn’t leave until Friday. The Vikings have a really good defence and are doing enough on offence that they lead their division, whilst the Browns are searching for their first win of the season. I really don’t like what head coach Hue Jackson is doing with his quarterbacks at the moment, and whilst you can’t rule out a surprise – especially when both teams are on the road – it is hard to see anything other than a win for the Vikings. Can the Browns stay within ten points? I’m not sure, but with a struggling team on the road, and players complaining about the trip I feel like it’s more likely the Vikings win big than anything else.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

Falcons @ Jets (+4.5)

The Atlanta Falcons travel to face the New York Jets this week and if we’ve learnt anything this season it is that the Falcons are not as dynamic on offence and the Jets are a much tougher opposition that anyone was thinking before the season started. It’s not that I’m super confident in how this game is going to go, but if you’re going to give me four and a half points as a home team in what could be a close game, I’m going to grab them.

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Jets

Raiders @ Bills (-2.5)

The Oakand Raiders have struggled except for the two games that I have watched them and are coming off a dramatic win against the Chiefs last week. However, even with a long week they are travelling to face the Buffalo Bills who have been nothing but competitive this season. It may be that Derek Carr looked better last week, but can the Raiders keep the momentum going? In the end I feel like I have more trust in the stability of the Bills so I’ll back them to cover this one.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

Bears @ Saints (-8.5)

This is a curious game to me as the Chicago Bears asked their rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky to drop back to pass just seven times last week as they ground out a win against the Panthers, and this week they travel to face a New Orleans Saints team who currently rank twenty-ninth in rush defence by DVOA. However, it is hard to see Bears keeping up with the Saints’ third ranked offence by DVOA using such a run dominated game plan and I fancy the Saints to run out winners in this one. Will they cover? The Bears have only lost two games by more than nine points, but I have a feeling this will be the third.

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Saints

Colts @ Bengals (-10.5)

The Indianapolis Colts have really struggled all season, and are coming off a shutout loss against the Jaguars where they gave up ten sacks. The Cincinnati Bengals managed a half of competitive football last week before their offence stalled again, but facing the Colt’s thirtieth ranked defence by DVOA is a lot different to facing the Steelers. I could be wrong, but I think this should be a game the Bengals can use to get back on track and whilst I’m not confident about anything to do with my team, I think they can and will cover this line.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Colts

Chargers @ Patriots (-7.5)

The New England Patriots got a good win last week, but I’m not sure where the balance lies between their defence improving and facing the Falcons and the Jets the last two weeks. Still they are at home facing an LA Chargers team who have won three straight and who are coming off a solid win against the Broncos. Their only loss by more than eight points came against the Chiefs in week three, and I just fancy the Chargers to keep this one closer than eight, although I see the Patriots running out winners in the end.

Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Chargers

49ers @ Eagles (-12.5)

This is a hard game for me to pick as the San Francisco 49ers had kept all of their games close until last week when they were steam rollered by the Cowboys. This week they travel to face an impressive Philadelphia Eagles team with the best record in the league, but the Eagles did pick up a couple of injuries last week, with the loss of left tackle Jason Peters really worrying me. I would expect the Eagles to win this one, but this line scares me, yet at home against a team who have not found their way I’m going to nervously back one of the few things I feel relatively confident about in the league.

Gee’s Pick: Eagles
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

Panthers @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

I have no real idea what to do with this game. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have looked good on offence but their defence is ranked last by DVOA and this week they welcome a Carolina Panthers team who just lost to the Chicago Bears. The Panthers were without Luke Kuechly last week but the Pro Bowl linebacker has cleared concussion protocol and should play this week. In this game I am just going to grab the points and hope that the Panthers can put enough together against the bad Tampa defence.

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

Texans @ Seahawks (-5.5)

The Seattle Seahawks got a solid win on the road last week against the Giants and look to be coming to the part of the season where they come good, even if their offensive line is still troubling. This week they welcome a Houston Texans team coming off a bye and in turmoil. The comments of their owner at last week’s league meeting have caused real anger in the team and led to a ninety minute air your feelings meeting on Friday. It is possible that the Texans are going to stage a protest on Sunday, and in a notoriously difficult place to play I will back the Seahawks to be the more focussed team and cover the line.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Texans

Cowboys @ Washington (+2.5)

The Dallas Cowboys got a solid win but travel to Washington this week in a divisional game that both teams desperately need to keep in contact with the Eagles who are already three games up on both teams. Washington rate a little better by DVOA but neither team are exactly inspiring confidence at the moment. This is a game where I’m going to grab the points for the home team and hope, I could be very wrong as Ezekiel Elliot did look good last week.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

Steelers @ Lions (+3.5)

The Detroit Lions are coming off a bye week having lost a strange game where their defence didn’t look that bad whilst giving up fifty-two points against the Saints the week before. However, this week they face a Pittsburgh Steelers who seem to have found their identity on offence whilst their defence is ranked second by DVOA and overall they are the best team according to DVOA. The Lions may be at home, but in this one I fancy the Steelers to continue their good run.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Broncos @ Chiefs (-7.5)

The Denver Broncos just got shut out by the LA Chargers and this week travel to face a Kansas City Chiefs team who have lost two straight for the first time since 2015. The Broncos offence has been struggling and Arrowhead stadium is not the kind of place to rediscover your form. The Chiefs offence has struggled a little bit against zone defence in the last two weeks and it is hard to know if the Chiefs can find their explosive early season form again but a healthier receiving group will help. The Broncos’ defence is still very good and as a divisional game it feels like this should be a close game, but having lost badly to the Giants and the Chargers I can’t quite bring myself pick the Broncos covering this line.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

The Way Forward

26 Thursday Oct 2017

Posted by gee4213 in Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

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NFL, Week 8 Picks

It was a frustrating weekend for me as a Bengals fan, with a competitive game in the first half dwindling into failure as the Bengals offence stalled once again. We are still in the first half of the season but the 2-4 record feels very different to the 3-3 that was possible with a win. On its own it was not a particularly bad loss, the Bengals were playing one of the best teams in the AFC rounding into form and playing at home, but the frustration of a division loss seemed to signal the final death knell for any hope of a turnaround. That’s not to say that the Bengals can’t salvage something for themselves, but it feels like this cycle is done and although there are young developing players, particularly on defence, the offence continues to need work and I don’t see how things turn round this season. The offensive line just wasn’t good enough at the weekend, and whilst bad offensive lines are becoming more common in the NFL, the Bengals do not have a quarterback in Andy Dalton who can overcome this.

I am mindful of the change that Marvin Lewis has been responsible for over his tenure, and how the Bengals are no longer a laughing stock but it may be time for a fresh approach. Although a change doesn’t necessarily guarantee success and there is no shortage of teams struggling this season.

Still we are rapidly approaching the half way mark in the season and yet there seems to be a lot of teams for which we still have questions, two of which play tonight.

Gee: Week 7 7-8 Overall 60-47
Dan: Week 7 11-4 Overall 53-54

Dolphins @ Ravens (-3.5)

The quality of the Thursday night games have been better this season, with last week’s game being something of a cracker, but in this one we see one team with a backup quarterback visiting a team who may have their starter, but that starter looks like a shell of the QB who led the Baltimore Ravens to a Super Bowl win.

The Ravens have a huge injury list so their record may be understandable, but right now they are struggling and whilst the Miami Dolphins have not looked good doing it, they are on a three game win streak. We get to see how Matt Moore will do on a short week, but this line is just that bit too much for me to back the Ravens to cover. This could be a big mistake on a Thursday night game, but I am going to back the road team to at least be within four points.

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Week Seven Picks

22 Sunday Oct 2017

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NFL, Week 7 Picks

Buccaneers @ Bills (-2.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have announced that they are starting quarterback Jameis Winston despite pulling him from last week’s game due to a shoulder injury, but whether he will be effective against a Buffalo Bills defence that currently ranks second in the league by DVOA is another question. To be honest, at the moment I would say that the Bills are the better team and I would expect them to win out at home against a Bucs team that hasn’t quite come together this season.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

Panthers @ Bears (+3.5)

The Chicago Bears managed to get a win in rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky’s first start, but he was only asked to make sixteen passes as opposed to fifty-four rush attempts. This is a very specific formula and they are facing a Carolina Panthers’ rush defence that ranks sixth in the league by DVOA. More worrying is that the Panthers’ offence is also coming together and I would expect them to win out after losing a close game to the Eagles last week. Sadly Luke Kuechly won’t be playing as he is suffering a concussion for the third straight year, but that is not altering my pick.

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

Titans @ Browns (+5.5)

The Cleveland Browns are going back to starting DeShone Kizer, which is the right long term decision for the team as they need to find out if they have their quarterback of the future, but it does seem that Hue Jackson is feeling the pressure of not having won a game this year. This week they welcome a Tennessee Titans team that have to restrict Marcus Mariota’s movements out the pocket but they got back on track with a win last week. I would expect them to win again this week but I’m not sure they will win by six points.

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Browns

Saints @ Packers (+5.5)

As if Green Bay Packers didn’t have enough injury problems already with their offensive line, they’ve now lost Aaron Rogers to a broken collar bone in his throwing shoulder. The Packers’ backup quarterback Brett Hundley has been at the Packers for a couple of years but will run a different system to Rodgers and whilst he will try to keep them in the playoff hunt, this is a tough proposition. The New Orleans Saints have actually improved on defence this season, and defensive end Cameron Jordan will be looking forward to facing the Packers’ beat up line. However, whilst the points make me nervous, the Saints have won their last three games by a minimum of seven points and so I’m backing them in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Saints

Jaguars @ Colts (+2.5)

This is a much harder game for me to pick as the Indianapolis Colts have managed to win a couple of games and welcome a Jacksonville Jaguars team who lose one week and win the next. However, there is a big difference in the DVOA rankings and every Jaguars win has come on the road including their one home game win that was actually played in London so despite them giving points to the Colts I’m picking the Jaguars this week to continue the trend.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Jaguars

Cardinals @ Rams (-3.5)

The LA Rams are hosting the Arizona Cardinals at Twickenham stadium in London and this is a really fascinating game. The Rams continue to lead their division thanks to the turn around on offence that Sean McVay has brought about, but their defence is a surprising rank of twenty-two against the run by DVOA. Two weeks ago this would not have been a problem against a Cardinals team who had lost David Johnson and were really struggling on offence as a while. However, having traded for Adrian Peterson, they looked a much better balanced offence and were able to run out easy winners against the Buccaneers last week. How consistent this turnaround is I don’t know, and with the added variant of a trip to London I really don’t know how to pick this game. In the end, I’m going to grab the extra half point given to the Cardinals, but as much as I’m looking forward to watching this game, the pick is very much a shot in the dark.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Rams

Jets @ Dolphins (-2.5)

This is another game that I find hard to pick as I really don’t have a handle on the Miami Dolphins, who for large parts of the season have just not looked very good, but then their defence will play tough and Jay Cutler will look like a competent quarterback. They welcome a New York Jets team who have already exceeded the expectations going into the season with their three wins, and although they lost their last game, the Jets put up a credible fight against the Patriots.

Both teams have similar DVOA rankings, but this is only the Dolphins second true home game this season and with a two game winning streak I’m going to pick them nervously, but I could easily see the Jets winning this one.

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Ravens @ Vikings (-5.5)

The Minnesota Vikings are developing one of the better home advantages in the league and welcome a Baltimore Ravens team whose offence only ranks twenty-sixth in the league. I would expect the Ravens to struggle to move the ball on the Vikings in their noisy stadium and can see the Vikings covering this line, which is why I am picking them.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

Cowboys @ 49ers (+6.5)

The San Francisco 49ers have specialised in close losses this season, so the fact that they are getting six and a half points at home is pretty much getting my pick straight away. The Dallas Cowboys may have Ezekiel Elliott, but their offence has not quite played up to last year’s level although they are ranked fifth in rush DVOA. Their defence is currently ranked thirtieth by DVOA though and in this game whilst I would expect them to win, I do expect the 49ers to cover.

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

Bengals @ Steelers (-5.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers found their formula last week by focussing on the run and their zone defence was able to hold up the Chiefs enough to get a win. They are rightly favourites at home against a Cincinnati Bengals team who have fought their way back into the season after a poor start. These games are usually close, and whilst I’m not sure the Bengals can win this game I do strongly fancy them to stay within six points.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

Broncos @ Chargers (-1.5)

The LA Chargers don’t really have a home advantage as even in the smaller stadium they are using in their first season in LA they have been unable to sell out and have often had a large numbers of away fans in attendance. They welcome a Denver Broncos team who had problems last week as they gave the Giants their first win of the season. The Broncos have some injuries at receiver and Trevor Siemian had to come out the game last week with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder but is expected to be back this week. I find it hard to believe the Broncos will be as bad this again and it’s got to be dispiriting for the Chargers to be playing in that stadium so I’m backing the Broncos to get things back on track in this game.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Chargers

Seahawks @ Giants (+5.5)

The New York Giants got their first win of the season last week despite all the injuries at receiver and this week welcome a Seattle Seahawks team who have slipped out of the top ten rankings in defensive DVOA and whose offensive line is struggling even more than usual. I fancy the Seahawks to find a way to win, but with an offence with a clear game plan and a defence that played better last week I fancy the Giants to cover this line at home, although it does make me a bit nervous.

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Falcons @ Patriots (-3.5)

I am still not quite sure how the Atlanta Falcons lost last week having been seventeen points up at half time, but they managed it and this week they travel to face the New England Patriots who had the amazing comeback against the Falcons in the last Super Bowl. The Patriots have got back to the top of their division despite a defence that still ranks last in DVOA and who has given up three hundred yards of passing to every quarterback they have faced. The question about giving up leads will follow the Falcons until they have won enough games to put it out of people’s minds, but they will be looking for revenge in this game and have a quarterback capable of exploiting the Patriots’ defensive issues even if things are not going as well for them having lost co-ordinator Kyle Shanahan.

I’m really not sure how to pick this game, and the half point strongly tempts me to pick the Falcons but having won the last two games and with them generally finding a way, I’m going to back the Patriots.

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Falcons

Washington @ Eagles (-4.5)

This is one of the games of the week with the Philadelphia Eagles welcoming their division rivals who they beat handily in week one. Things have improved for Washington who are the Eagles closest rivals in the NFC East division and who really need this win to stop the Eagles from taking a commanding three game lead, which would be very hard to claw back.

The Eagle are ranked second in the league by DVOA but Washington are not that far behind them and now that Washington are enough weeks away from a pre-season that didn’t seem to prepare them for the start of the season very well, I feel it will be a close game. In fact close enough that this is too many points for the Eagles to be giving away. I just hope I’m not wrong.

Gee’s Pick: Washington
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

AAF: Adrian Peterson

22 Sunday Oct 2017

Posted by gee4213 in Amateur Adventures in Film

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Adrian Peterson, Arizona Cardinals, Carson Palmer, Earl Watford, New Orleans Saints, NFL, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

So after an aborted attempt a couple of weeks ago, I have finally got through an entire game of coaching tape and so I’m very happy to be able to write up what I saw when I took a look at Adrian Peterson’s first game for the Arizona Cardinals against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week.

I was not convinced that Peterson was going to make a huge difference to the Cardinals when he was traded to them from the New Orleans Saints but the move did make sense for both teams. It had been a couple of seasons since we had seen Peterson at his best and the criticism has been that he was not able to run out of shotgun formations and that given his ability in the passing game, when he was on the field it was too much of a tip to what was going to happen on that play.

In the game against the Buccaneers last week Peterson ran for one hundred and thirty-four yards on twenty-six carries giving him over a five yard per carry average, and he scored two touchdowns. Peterson did have one fumble, but he was bailed out by guard Earl Watford who recovered the ball for him.

The classic thing you hear about Peterson is that he is a volume runner and he runs best from the I-formation. Whilst he did not take many snaps in the shotgun formation, he was not the obvious indicator of a running play that has been talked about in recent years. The Cardinals spent most of the game in 11 or 12 personnel, with Adrian Peterson as the single back but for most of these snaps Carson Palmer was under centre rather than in shotgun. From here Peterson did run the ball effectively, with his longest run that counted being twenty-seven yards though he did also have a forty-one yard run called back due to an illegal blocking penalty, although Peterson was also called for taunting at the end of that play as well.

It has to be said that Peterson does not look to have burst when compared to the athletes around him, but he is a patient runner with enough experience and shiftiness to be effective. More importantly, he seemed to give the Cardinals balance and although he was only targeted once in the passing game, he did run a number of routes or play action fakes and so his presence on the field was not an indication of whether a run or pass play was coming.

It is too early to tell if he can continue this pace over the course of the season as he has not carried this level of load for a couple of years, but the early signs are definitely positive and if he can give the Cardinals’ offence a genuine balance then he could help rescue their season. I look forward to seeing how the Cardinals do against the Rams in London this week.

Existing in a World of Flux

19 Thursday Oct 2017

Posted by gee4213 in Thursday Night Football

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Aaron Rodgers, Anthony Barr, Carson Wentz, CBA, Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson, Green Bay Packers, NBA, New York Giants, NFL, Roger Goodell

It was another week of unpredictable results that saw the New York Giants win their first game of the season on the road and the injury of another of the NFL’s marketable stars with Aaron Rodgers going down with a broken collar bone.

There has been some contention that it was a late hit on Rodgers by Vikinings linebacker Anthony Barr and that he drove Rodgers into the ground. To me it looks like he took a step and made a form tackle. It is a big blow to the Packers and the league to lose a player of Rodger’s standing, but in this instance I think it was a football play.

The continuing narrative surrounding the league is a worry about marketing and viewing figures as well as playing standards. Yes we are seeing a generation of quarterbacks who we are very familiar with come towards the end of their career or retire, but with players like Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott and emerging rookie Deshaun Watson I would not give up on the young group of quarterbacks just yet. And that’s ignoring the future years of Russell Wilson and the aforementioned Aaron Rodgers who should have some very good seasons ahead of them.

I am also not so worried about viewing figures given that no one seems to be able to take into account for more fractured way people watch television and sport. The American ratings don’t take into account those watching digitally, so a decline should be taken with a pinch of salt.

The participation levels in youth football however, must be monitored, but given all that we are learning about head injuries it would be a good thing to delay the playing of tackle football until children are big enough. The big change will be when a test for CTE that can be performed on players whilst they are still alive is available, and this is when the seismic changes could take place.

The NFL is heading into a period of flux, and yes I do think the NBA can challenge them with their marketable stars who are not hidden behind a helmet. However, the intricacies and skill of football are still as interesting as ever.

There are things that are affecting the quality of play in the collective bargaining agreement. Maybe coaches do need more practice time, but the days of two a days and endless hitting are behind us. It will require innovation and insight, something that has repeatedly occurred in the league but usually though the vision of a single coach or owner and then picked up across the league.

There will be much to discuss when the next CBA is drawn up, but it would help if the process was less adversarial. I really don’t think it is good for the sport that the relationship between the players union and the league is so fractious. However, it is interesting that at the league meeting this week that despite the comments on the anthem in Roger Goodell’s memo, the focus in the meeting was on what the league could do to further the players who are protesting agenda. This strikes me as a more productive route than demanding players stand for the anthem, although I’m sure as the discussions progresses that they will circle back to tackle that topic.

Still, it useful to remember that even for a sport as conservative as American Football, the world is a place of constant flux and for the league to survive it will have to find a way of existing in that flux.

Not so very different to the rest of us.

Gee: Week 6 7-7 Overall 53-39
Dan: Week 6 7-7 Overall 42-50

Chiefs @ Raiders (+2.5)

The Oakland Raiders’ offence has just not come together this season, and whilst I like the signing of NaVorro Bowman to bolster the Raiders’ linebacker group, I’m not sure it is enough to help them hang with Kansas City Chiefs’ offence. The Raiders will be desperate for a win to rescue their season but even as a home underdog I can’t pick them in tonight’s game, although it would not exactly surprise me if they were to win.

Gee’s Pick: Chiefs
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 56

19 Thursday Oct 2017

Posted by gee4213 in Podcasts

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NFL

Oh the injuries… so many injuries! This week on The Wrong Football pod, we take a look at the best of Week 6 – the week in which some of the leagues biggest names ended up on the sidelines – and also make our picks for Week 7, when the NFL returns to London for the first of two Twickenham games. We also talk about Ezekiel Elliott’s pending suspension, and pay tribute to Kevin Cadle, who sadly passed away on Monday. All that and more, this week on The Wrong Football podcast!

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 56