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The Wrong Football

~ A UK American Football fan writes about the game he loves

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Author Archives: gee4213

Week 1 Amateur Adventures in Film

20 Sunday Sep 2015

Posted by gee4213 in Amateur Adventures in Film

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Atlanta Falcons, Fletcher Cox, Jordan Matthews, Julio Jones, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles

Welcome to a new series I’m planning to run this year called Amateur adventures in Film. Rather than waiting until Sunday morning and trying to rush through the Thursday night game, I am going to look back at a game or plays that took my fancy from the last week as we build up to the Sunday night action.

I chose the Eagles at Falcons game to look at as I wanted to take a proper look at the Eagles offence on tape, without missing the start due to their tempo and I was fascinated by Chip Kelly’s scheme.

The first thing I noticed looking at this game compared to last year is that between reading coaching books in the offseason and listening to Greg Cosell talk about film, I was paying a lot more attention to the safety look of the defences and the personnel on offence. So let us take a look at the main four groups in the game. I confess that I tend to skip the kicking games as they still are a bit of a mystery to me and it already takes me a couple of hours to go through a game like this.

I’ll start with the Eagles offence as they are what drew me to this game, and I did really love what I saw in this game. Apart from their tempo, the Eagles spend most of their time playing with at least three receivers and constantly running crossing routes, and route combinations to set picks for defenders, scheming receivers open. It was a lot of fun to watch and I was impressed with receiver Jordan Mathews who picked up one hundred and two yards on ten receptions. It was also interesting to see how Kelly’s scheme obviously used a combination of spacing and routes to get players open in the pass game, but this spacing was also fundamental in the run game. When the running the ball the Eagles didn’t just line up and go, but kept their spacing and used all kinds of linemen pulls to cause defence problems. I am looking forward to seeing if any other teams pull their centre as much as the Eagles, but I’m guessing not as I would imagine this places a premium on mobility at this position that is probably not that easy to find. The Eagles also used a lot less read option style action with the quarterback than they did in the offseason, which I would imagine that as teams are now scheming, they didn’t want to risk Bradford taking too many of the kind of hits that Terrell Suggs gave him in the preseason.

In contrast, the Falcons offence seemed to move the ball a lot better when they were in 21 or 12 personnel, as having that extra running back or tight end near the line of scrimmage helped them protect, relying on the fewer receivers they sent to either get themselves open, or the Falcons used similar pick concepts or crossing patterns to get their players open. The other route you saw repeatedly work for the Falcons was a short slants to receivers lined up close to the line of scrimmage, relying on timing and the precision with which Matt Ryan gets the ball out of his hands. It seems a more conservative option, but one that was working for them and when you have Julio Jones getting himself open, you don’t have to do as much work with the scheme to manufacture passing opportunities. In fact, Jones had a monster game, and pretty much won it for the Falcons when he managed to get an easy inside release on corner Byron Maxwell against a single high safety look from the Eagles, and caught a deep pass down the right sideline as the safety couldn’t get across in time. This gained the Falcons forty-four yards and although the drive stalled, put them in range for the field goal that regained the lead that the Falcons kept until the end. That said, the Eagles missed a forty-four yard field goal at the end that could have equally won them the game.

So if this is what I saw in the offences, what about the defences? The Falcons are talked about as moving to 4-3 under Dan Quinn, the scheme following him from the Seahawks. However, it was hard for me to see this as they spent most of the game in substitution sets accounting for the Eagles multiple receiver sets. It looked to me they were using a similar three deep zone as the Seahawks, which looks like a single high safety with the corners a zone where they trail their man and hand them off, but I will need to get more practice at looking at this over the season to be sure. It will be interesting to see how their pass rush improves over the season, but they didn’t get a sack in this game, and no one leapt off the tape for me in the pass rush.

If I was struggling to identify the defences of the Falcons, thanks to their more traditional offensive groupings, it was much easier to spot the Eagles 3-4 base defence and their switches into nickel/dime formations. Their front seven looked good, with Fletcher Cox really catching the eye from defensive end as he frequently penetrated into the back field, getting a sack and a couple of quarter back hits, but always causing disruption. However, as a team they did concede nearly four hundred yards of offence, so they will want to toughen up in the upcoming weeks, and will want tighter coverage from their corners.

Overall this was a really close game that could have been won by either side, which give the season the Falcons had last year, is a big improvement for them. If the Falcons have hope, I wouldn’t be too worried about the Eagles either, they really could have won this game and once the offence got going it looked really good. It will be interesting to see if the Giants borrow some of the Falcons’ personnel groupings as they play the Eagles without Dez Bryant, but we will just have to see what happens tonight.

Week 2 Picks – Part 2

18 Friday Sep 2015

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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NFL, Week 2 Picks

I am going to avoid writing about last night’s Broncos at Chiefs game in case you’re trying to catch up with it without hearing the score. I will write it up over the weekend as it is a good one, but for now let’s take a look at the rest of the week 2 games.

Falcons @ Giants (-2.5)

The Giants managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of a victory that I was really not expecting them to be in a position to get. In fairness, whilst they did okay in the run game, the passing game did not go as well as you might expect and the Cowboys offence outgained them by one hundred and forty-six yards. This can be highlighted by Odell Beckham’s modest forty-four yards on five catches, but the real story is that they were in a position to win the game, but bad clock management between Eli Manning and head coach Tom Coughlin gave Dallas enough time to go seventy-two yards in seventy-six seconds.

This week the Giants host a Falcons team coming off an impressive win in Philadelphia, although the Eagles did come back strongly against them in the second half. They are still making changes to their offence line, which is a worry, but the Falcons have a true franchise quarterback and receiver Julio Jones was amazing against the Eagles, amassing one hundred and forty-four yards from nine receptions and with the Giants’ questions in the secondary, this will be a match up to watch. The Falcons were setup to let the Eagles have the short throws and were betting they couldn’t sustain enough drives to win, which was a bet that paid off for them. We don’t know how typical this approach will be as it is too early in the season, but the defence is already looking better than last season.

I am still not convinced by the Giants, and whilst there are still questions around the Falcons on both sides of the ball, I just think they have enough talent to beat this Giants team.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Patriots @ Bills (+0.5)

The Bills defence were as impressive as we were expecting, with the changes Rex Ryan made paying off, but they also executed their plan successfully on offence as well as defence. The Bills offence ran the ball successfully, Tyrod Taylor looked after the ball, and he made enough big passes and runs to get them the win. However, it was Rex’s pressure on Andrew Luck that meant he wasn’t able to perform in the way we have come to expect. It will be fascinating to see what plans Rex Ryan has to deal with the Patriots offence.

The Patriots got the win against the Steelers, but whilst their offence was working very well, they were going against a defence in transition that was having all sorts of communication issues, and not just due to headset problems. I very much doubt that we will see Rob Gronkowski that open in this game. The other thing that struck me about the Patriots was that their defence seemed to be functioning much more of a bend don’t break principle, and whilst you would expect them to improve as the Patriots usually do through the season, they looked soft against the run game and the Steelers had no problems in the passing game until they got near the red zone.

I could regret this one, but I am getting a half point for a home team with a defence that is nasty, and a team that I think will be able to run the ball against the Patriots. No one should take a quarterback with as few starts as Taylor against Tom Brady, but that is what I am going to do this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Cardinals @ Bears (+2.5)

The Bears are a team in transition, and they may have lost their opener to their hated rivals the Green Bay Packers, but a 31-23 loss does not seem that bad in the grand scheme of things. There are questions all round this team, but they ran the ball well and generated over four hundred yards of offence, even if Jay Cutler did throw one of his obligatory interceptions. The Packers didn’t exactly light up the Bears defence if you look at the statistics, but Rodgers is a great quarterback and still managed to throw for three touchdowns. It is going to be a long season, but this is not a team that I think will suffer the meltdowns they had last year.

The Cardinals had questions about their defence having lost Tod Bowles as defensive coordinator, and their offence given that Carson Palmer was coming back from a season ending injury. However, whilst the questions may remain about the defence, Carson Palmer looked good, throwing for three touchdowns without an interceptions, and over three hundred yards. This is a coaching staff that I still believe in, and I think even though they are on the road, that they will have too much for the Bears.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Chargers @ Bengals (-3.5)

The Bengals couldn’t have got off to much of a better start last week against the Raiders. Their offence was clicking, with the offensive line remaining as good as they were last year, and the players returning from injury meant that they just had too many weapons for the Raiders defence to stop. There was a real effort in the offseason to improve the depth as the tight end position, but Tyler Eifert really caught the eye with his two touchdowns, and one hundred and four yards, on nine receptions. The other side of the ball also played well, with the defensive line rotation continuing to look better than last season, and the secondary looked strong as well. The Raiders were 33-0 down going into the final quarter and the Bengals were playing a lot of backups in that final quarter.

In their home opener they welcome a Chargers team who won their opening game, but whilst Philip Rivers looked good, even whilst throwing two interceptions, there still are questions about their defence. In the game against the Lions they outgained Detroit by one hundred and eighty-one yards, but only won by five points.

I’m trying not to be too much of a Bengals fan about this one, but I like how the team look right now, and whilst the Chargers offence is going to be good, I think there are enough questions about their defence that I think the Bengals will take care of business in their home opener, particularly as they are still carrying a grudge from the post season loss two years ago.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Titans @ Browns (+1.5)

The Browns took a lead in the second quarter, but by half time they had surrendered it to the Jets in what was eventually a lopsided loss. The passing defence that was so good last year seemed to regress back to average and the Jets were able to run for one hundred and fifty-four yards. Whilst on offence they lost Josh McCowan to a concussion on the opening drive as he dived for the end zone, the Browns did manage to put up over three hundred yards with Johnny Manziel in the game. However, whilst he looked better than last year when he was simply horrendous, there are still questions about Manziel and his play was uneven to say the least. He managed to couple four fumbles, all of them lost to the Jets, and an interception, with his first NFL touchdown pass. The Browns are finding out Friday morning if McCowan will pass the league’s concussion protocol, and will start if he does, so we don’t really know what to expect this week except that the offensive line didn’t do a great job at the Jets and the running game was not that great. One of their big problems is that there are not a lot of their recent first round picks working out at the moment, and you can’t win if you routinely don’t hit often enough in the early rounds of the draft.

For the second season in a row the Titans got their season started with a win, but it was a real beat down they gave to the Bucs last week. Marcus Mariota looked good as he threw for four touchdowns without an interception, as Ken Wisenhunt used a number of familiar Oregon concepts to help his rookie quarterback settle into the NFL. It helped that the Bucs played with a lot of easy to identify coverage concepts, but already the decision to pick Jameis Winston is getting questioned. Part of that was the reads Winston had to make against an improving Titans team that added Dick LeBeau into the defensive brain trust in the offseason.

I don’t want to get too carried away with the start the Titans made, but they already look a more interesting team than last year, and I fancy them to get a win against a Browns team that just can’t seem to get everyone pulling in the right direction.

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Lions @ Vikings (-2.5)

The Vikings were a team we were all expecting to make a step up again this year, and whilst it is too early to say that they won’t, it was no the start they would have wanted losing to the 49ers who had so much turmoil in the offseason. The offensive line problems that hampered them last year were not much better this year, and Adrian Peterson did not run the ball like he has in past years, although he didn’t get the number of carries he would usually expect. This perhaps is not that surprising as the Vikings defence gave up nearly four hundred yards, and I would imagine that Mike Zimmer will furious about the two hundred and thirty yards they gave up on the ground to the 49ers.

The Lions went into half time with an eleven point lead, and then watched it disappear in the second half, with Matthew Stafford throwing two picks to go with his two touchdowns. The Lions ran the ball modestly, but Ameer Abdullah got his first career highlight with a move on Eric Weddle that left him helpless as Abdullah fizzed past him to run in his first career touchdown. The defence is still adjusting to the offseason personnel changes, and they will be hoping that DeAndre Levy gets back from his hip injury quickly.

I’m a little worried about this pick, but whilst I think that the Vikings will do okay this season, and that Mike Zimmer will at least stiffen their defence again, I’m not sure that things will turn quickly enough for this game as they are on a short week, so I’m reluctantly taking Matthew Stafford on the road..

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Rams @ Washington (+3.5)

The team from Washington might have got the result that I was expecting, but perhaps they were not quite the team I thought they were. The defence was improved on last year, but more impressively they were able to run the ball effectively with Alfred Morris running for over one hundred and twenty yards. They are still a mess at quarterback with Kirk Cousins throwing two interceptions, but they kept the game close against a team that may were tipping for the playoffs before the start of the season.

The Rams play the Seahawks tough at home, but they did a little more than that in week one, getting one of the results of the first week. There do appear to be problems with the Seahawks secondary and line, but the Rams defence got six sacks with Aaron Donald getting two whilst being very disruptive at defensive tackle. If the Rams defence was as good as we had expected, the play of Nick Foles shows there may be some hope for the Rams offence this season, throwing as he did for nearly three hundred yards and a touchdown without any interceptions. Add to that a run game that generated over a hundred and twenty yards, and a time of possession advantage of nearly nine minutes and you can see how this team beat the Seahawks.

They may be coming across the country to play this game, but I think they have enough to win in Washington.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Rams

Bucs @ Saints (-9.5)

The Saints travelled to Arizona and lost against a good Cardinals team. They threw the ball more than I was expecting, and did look effective doing it, although Drew Brees threw an interception to match his touchdown. The running game stuttered with them only gaining fifty-four yards at 2.7 yards per carry so you can perhaps understand their sticking with the pass. However, if the offence continues to put up over four hundred yards, it will have to be more efficient in their opponent’s half as they only managed one touchdown in this game, and were forced to kick four field goals. All of this as their defence gave up one hundred and twenty yards and a touchdown against the run, and over three hundred yards and three touchdowns in the air.

The Buccaneers had an awful start to the season and for once it doesn’t seem sensationalist to write that a coach could be on the hot seat after game one. Their first round quarterback threw a pick six on his first NFL play, and threw a second later in the game as the Bucs were thoroughly out played. Worse still was the defence, which was picked apart by a rookie quarterback for four touchdowns. The defensive problems are even more concerning given that Lovie Smith is a defensive coach, and it could be a very long season for the fans in Tampa Bay.

I am pretty certain that the Saints are going to win the game, and the points scare me, but as much as I want to take the Bucs to cover, they just lost by twenty-eight points to the Titans and so I can’t bring myself to do it.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints

Dan’s Pick:      Saints

49ers @ Steelers (-6.5)

The Steelers looked good on offence, moving the ball well despite their suspensions, but ran into an angry Patriots team that simply does not lose at home very often. Their defence though was a real mess in coverage, and whilst I’m sure this will improve over the year, it will continue to worry when they are giving as many points as this.

The 49ers came out in their Monday night game and physically dominated the Vikings, running the ball very effectively and containing the Vikings’ offence. I’m not sure how good they will be across the season, but they are not going to be the car crash that many were predicting. That said, there still are doubts about Colin Kaepernick in the pass game, even having spent the offseason working with Kurt Warner, but if NaVorro Bowman continues his impressive return to form on defence, then this team will be a tough one to face each week.

This is a tough travel week for the 49ers, coming across country after a late Monday night game, but whilst I think the Steelers will win this game, I think that between their defence and the missing offensive starters, the Steelers won’t cover this spread.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:      49ers

Texans @ Panthers (-3.5)

The Panthers ran out comfortable winners in their opening game despite losing Luke Kuechly to a concussion. However, the offence I was worried about was actually outgained by the Jaguars, but they took better care of the ball and got the job done. However, I’m still worried about their receivers, Cam Newton ran the ball more than you would want, and whilst the front seven of their defence looks good, the secondary doesn’t inspire confidence yet.

We don’t know how this team have practiced, so we can’t put too much stock in the comments we saw in Hard Knocks, but it is interesting that after seeing Hoyer be told he wouldn’t be on a short leash when given the starter job, he was pulled in the opening game. The Texans gave up five sacks to the Chiefs, Hoyer only threw one interception, but Bill O’Brien was clearly not happy with what he saw. On defence, JJ Watt got two sacks and was his usual disruptive self, but the team still gave up three hundred and thirty yards and three touchdowns.

I’m finding this a hard game to pick as I don’t really trust what I think about either team yet. The Panthers have injuries to deal with, but the Texans are in a mess at quarterback again and don’t have their Arian Foster in the running game. However, that extra half point just pulls me towards the Texans and JJ Watt.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Ravens @ Raiders (+6.5)

The Raiders start to the season was horrible on both sides of the ball. There is plenty of time to turn things round, but there must be a real sense of not again floating around Oakland right now.

The Ravens fell in a close game to the Broncos and lost Terrell Suggs for the season to an Achilles tear. The defence is still going to be solid, but this is going to weaken their linebacker corp. Their offence however is thing that could be a cause of concern. It is best not to overreact to their week one showing given how good the Broncos look to be on defence, but there seems to be a lack of weapons in their offence and even the line was not at their best last week.

However, it is going to take a lot more points that this for me to back the Raiders against a good team.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Ravens

Dolphins @ Jaguars (+6.5)

The Jaguars actually outgained the Panthers in their first game, but it was a familiar result for them, and they won’t win with Blake Bortles throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. Living in the UK you hear a lot about the Jaguars because of their commitment to playing over here, but they really need to do something to convince me that they are going to turn the corner that we keep hearing they might do.

The Dolphins made hard work of beating Washington, and didn’t exactly set the world on fire on either side of the ball. You can understand why they paid Suh the money they have, but the Dolphins won’t want him overstepping the line of hard play into dirty like he did against the Washington. That said, this is a game for them to get things going again, and I am not picking the Jaguars again until they can prove to me they have earned it.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Cowboys @ Eagles (-4.5)

The Eagles had a slow start in the first half of this game, and finished strongly, but couldn’t quite climb out of the hole they had dug for themselves. Perhaps more worrying was how they struggled to cover Julio Jones, and the play of Byron Maxwell will be a concern given the amount of money they gave him in the offseason. However, things really clicked in the second half for the offence, and the front seven of their defence looks very good.

The Eagles welcome a Cowboys team that stole a win from the Giants last week. The defence is still a concern, and you have to wonder how they will cope against the fast paced Chip Kelly offence if gets into gear again. However, in addition to the defence, the running game did not look good last week against the Giants, and the injury of Dez Bryant is huge, and I really hope they don’t’ rush him back as he has the same fracture that did for Kevin Durant’s season in the NBA this year.

The amount of points worries me in this game, but I have a lot of questions about this Cowboys team who were lucky to win last week, and so I’m sticking by the Eagles for now.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Seahawks @ Packers (-3.5)

The Packers got their win against the Bears to start the season, and Aaron Rodgers was his usual other worldly self, resuming his chemistry with James Jones despite no offseason working with the receiver, as he threw for three touchdowns but only one hundred and eighty-nine yards. Despite losing Jordy Nelson, the worry for this team could well be on defence. They lost middle linebacker Sam Barrington for the year so they could well be thin there, and giving up four hundred yards to the Bears is not exactly encouraging, particularly giving up one hundred and eighty-nine of them against the run when the Seahawks are coming into town this week.

However, there may be some cracks appearing in the Seahawks this year. On offence it might be time to invest some time in their offensive line as they struggled last week against a good Rams front, but it would have been worse if Russell Wilson wasn’t such a mobile quarterback, and he was still sacked six times. If that wasn’t enough, the hold out of Kam Chancellor, and the depth at corner means that there are now questions about the Seahawks secondary for the first time in years, I was not expecting them to move Richard Sherman into the slot when playing nickel.

This should be a cracking game, but with Green Bay playing at home, and I would imagine desperate to make amends after the horrible playoff loss last season, I am backing them to get the win at Lambeau.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Jets @ Colts (-6.5)

The Colts really struggled last week against the pressure that Bills’ defence got against them, even if it only yielded two sacks, Andrew Luck threw for twenty-six completions on forty-nine attempts with two touchdowns and two interceptions. I am still stunned that they didn’t pick an offensive lineman until the seventh round, and in my opinion they had enough depth at receiver that they could have addressed this need in the first round rather than picking the receiver they did. The other worrying thing for Colts fans was the familiar one hundred and forty-seven yards they gave up on the ground against the Bills. This was a real problem for the defence last year, and this could be a tough second week for them given that they are playing a very similar team in the Jets.

The Jets also have what looks to be a tough defence, and an offence very capable of running the ball. The defence might not rush the passer as much as Ryan’s Bills last week, but you have to imagine that they have seen the tape and will be looking at trying to disrupt the middle of the Colts line again. They also ran for over one hundred and fifty yards last week on offence, and while Ryan Fitzpatrick might not have the legs of Tyrod Taylor, his best years in Buffalo were under current jets offensive coordinator Chan Gailey.

I’m not sure if I would go as far as to predict a win for the Jets, but I’m not sure the Colts are worth this many points at home, and so I’m backing the Jets to keep this game close.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Thursday Night Predictions

17 Thursday Sep 2015

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, NFL, Week 2 Picks

The second week in the NFL is one dominated by overreaction. If your team lost it was the end of the world and if you won you are going to the playoffs. However, with so much football left to be played, with the accompanying injuries, loss and gain of form, and everything that makes the NFL so watchable, means we should be weary of jumping from one extreme to another, although I clearly have a problem with the Jaguars again.

So lets remind ourselves of what actually happened last week, and how it might affect the upcoming games, but thanks to more work shenanigans I’m only going through tonight’s game now, but will be following up tomorrow with the rest of the week’s games and hopefully some adventures in game film. I will also mention that the lines look horrible!

Gee:    Week 1   11-5              Overall   8-8
Dan:    Week 1   8-8                Overall   8-8

Broncos @ Chiefs (-2.5)

The Chiefs started off with a solid win against the Texans in week one, with five sacks and an interception their defence picked up from where they left off last season. The 27-20 score hides the fact that the Chiefs were eighteen points up going into the last quarter, and Alex Smith threw for three touchdowns without an interception in a typically efficient performance. This week in their home opener they welcome the 1-0 Texans in a battle of good defences and questions of offence, but whilst there are very real questions surrounding the Broncos that I will get to in a moment, the Chiefs have a one of best all round backs in Jamall Charles, and will a tough opponent for any team visiting Arrowhead Stadium.

The Broncos got a win in an ugly game against the Ravens in week one, and we are already seeing the circus in full swing around Peyton Manning. The difference this year though is the arm strength might well be prohibitive to performance, and we are in the early part of the season when the weather is good. This could get ugly as the Broncos line is in flux, one of the all time great quarterbacks is suddenly reverting to a style offence he hasn’t played since his early years in the league, and the running game wasn’t exactly inspiring. The defence is going to be nasty all year with the pass rushing combinations of Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, and Shane Rey look to be set to cause offence lines headaches which will only help a very good secondary.

This is a hard game for me to call, but I am very worried about the Broncos offence, and whilst the Texans have fearsome players on defence, the Chiefs are probably a better unit as a whole, and I just have this feeling that the Chiefs will have too much at home in the famously loud Arrowhead stadium.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Week 1 Steelers at Patriots

13 Sunday Sep 2015

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Antonio Brown, julian Edleman, New England Patriots, NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers, Rob Gronkowski, Tom Brady, Will Allen, William Gay

So we finally get to the start of the season, but we still can’t escape the deflategate saga, but after the opening parade of trophies and celebrations we could finally move on to football.

It was an interesting game with both teams transitioning on defence, but for me the game was won and lost in the red zone. The Steelers had no problem moving the ball as they were able to establish the run early, and actually generated more yards on offence that the Patriots. However, whilst they connected with a number of deep passes, their offence kept getting bogged down in the opponent’s half and they lost six points with Josh Scobee missing his first two field goal attempts. The Patriots however, after a first series stall, managed to get a two touchdown lead and were never really troubled by the Steelers for the rest of the game.

The Steelers offence looked good for the most part, and they certainly were prepared for Le’Veon Bell’s suspension, with DeAngelo Williams throwing off the years and running for one hundred and twenty-seven yards at an average of six yards per carry. The deep ball was also working against the Patriots rebuilt secondary, with several such passes going to Anotio Brown, Markus Wheaton somehow getting his feet in after Ben Roethlisberger was given an age to find a receiver, and Darrius Heyward-Bey managing to get behind Bradley Fletcher on a go route to gain fourty-three yards that was the Steelers’ longest play of the game. The problem is that they stalled at the Patriots’ twenty-six and twenty-eight yard line for the missed field goals, got field goals from the twenty-six and six yard lines, whilst only scoring two touchdowns.

The Patriots rebuilt their defence in the offseason, but appeared to be focussing on their front seven rather than trying to replace the cornerbacks they let go. However, right from the first series they appeared to be soft against the run, and given the success the Steelers were having, I was surprised to see them run a trick play early that gave Antonio Brown the chance to throw the ball, but which merely led to a sack. The Patriots were able to generate some pressure, sacking Roethlisberger two times in addition to getting Brown down, but at other times big Ben had plenty of time to throw the ball and they were beaten deep a number of time. What they were able to do though, was to bend and not break, as the defence managed to stop the Steelers as the field got shorter. We will have to see how this works as the season goes along, but they did enough in this game to get the job done.

The Patriots on offence on the other, hand were highly effective at what they do, and it was the usual suspects. The reinstated Tom Brady threw for two hundred and eighty-eight yards with twenty five completions from thirty-two attempts. The majority of these passes went to Julian Edleman and Rob Gronkowski, with Gronkowski being the kind of red zone threat that the Steelers struggled to find. Their was no sign of the early wobble that troubled the Patriots last season, and I go back to the loss of their long time line coach Dante Scarnecchia and the resulting adjustment as a possible cause for this. They ran the ball fairly well with Dion Lewis, and with Brady they always have a chance, but I might be a little concerned for them if Gronk or Eldeman were out for any stretch of time.

The Steelers defence looked off for most of the night, there were flashes of what they were trying to do, but there appeared to be a lot of miscommunication and they did nothing to allay the fears regarding their secondary. It will be interesting to see how the defence progresses as they gain experience in the changed system, and they will have been happy to see their first round draft pick Alvin Dupree pick up a sack in his first game.

Finally I want to look at two specific plays that caught my eye during the game. This season I will be working on a series I will call adventures in film. I’ll be looking at a game from the previous week once the tape becomes available, and picking out certain plays from the Thursday night games when I write up that game.

The first play that struck me was a beautifully timed completion to Danny Amendola. The Patriots lined up shotgun with five receivers, three on the left and two on the right. The Patriots snap the ball and the Steelers rush with four. Danny Amendola is the closest receiver to the line on the left side with Gronkowski and then Edleman outside him; Amendola runs an out then up route whilst Gronkowski runs a hitch that sets a pick to get Amendola open whilst Edleman runs a go route. Ryan Shazier has a relatively clear path to Brady, but on receiving the snap Brady takes a further three step drop and then floats a ball over the trailing William Gay for an eighteen yard completion before anyone can get to him. It was a lovely play, and I don’t know how a defence can counter it with Brady getting rid of the ball so quickly and given that the safety has to honour the go route of Edleman.

The other play I wanted to look at was the sack by safety Will Allen. The Patriots line up with 11 personnel (ie one tight end and one running back) in a shotgun formation with Gronkowski the right side tight end and running back Dion Lewis to Brady’s left. The Steelers are in a 3-3 nickel with single high safety coverage and a linebacker playing as one of the down linemen. Will Allen just times his run to perfection so he’s moving when the ball is snapped but no one accounts for him as a pass rusher. Thanks to William Gay rushing from the nickel corner spot on the same side as Allen, running back Dion Lewis picks up Gay, leaving Allen a free run to the quarterback. What caught my eye about this play initially was the timing of Allen’s run, but in looking at it on coaching tape, it also demonstrates that although the defence maybe changing, the zone blitz is not done in Pittsburgh. They may have sent a corner and a safety, but it was a classic overload of one side whilst all four linebackers dropping into coverage, so the defence only actually rushed four, sticking to the aim of the zone blitz to generate a pass rush safely.

Week 1: Picks and Excuses

10 Thursday Sep 2015

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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NFL, Week 1 Picks

It has been a thoroughly frustrating couple of weeks as I’ve made it a little over half the games I wanted to see of the preseason, but my actual paying jobs has been kicking me round the place and sadly this endeavour does not pay my mortgage.

I always try to bring you things I’ve seen or my opinions rather than parroting conventional opinion so I shall dive straight into a preview of week one, and the return of the picks competition from Dan, who I think is still smarting from his narrow loss last season. Once more we’ll be taking the lines from the ESPN Pick ‘Em game and I will be using this to judge how I feel about the game.

Remember, the default line between two equal teams is -3 to the home team

Steelers @ Patriots (-3.5)

All I want to say about deflate gate, and the ongoing saga of NFL administrative incompetence is that we now have an extremely motivated all time great quarterback starting in the opening game of the season. The defensive overhaul in the offseason, shedding the high cost secondary and appearing to focus instead on rushing the passer, is the kind of tactical flexibility that Coach Belichick is known for and so I am less concerned about this than I would be for many other teams. Time will tell if they can pull it off, but I for one will want to see an extended downturn before I believe it.

The Steelers have a terrifying offence, but a huge part of that is on paper only this week given Le’Veon Bell’s suspension, and we saw in the playoffs how much trouble Bell’s absence can cause. Add to this the injury of Maurkice Pouncey and you do start to have concerns about what should be the better side of the ball. The Steelers’ secondary worries me, and as they transition to a more cover-2 based scheme, which is what Mike Tomlin is more usually associated with, I think they will suffer again this season on the defensive side of the ball as they work things through.

I don’t think there can be too many places that a team in this situation would less like to visit than Foxborough so I’m going for the Patriots to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Colts @ Bills (+2.5)

The Bills certainly increased their media presence with the hire of Rex Ryan as their head coach, but what he will be able to do with their already fearsome defence shall be fascinating to watch. The question will be if Greg Roman can get enough out of the offence to get them into the playoffs for the first time since 1999. Having won the quarterback competition, it will be interesting to see if Tyrod Taylor can give them the play that this team have been searching for over recent years, and make the most out of second year receiver Sammy Watkins.

The Colts have the opposite problem in that they have their quarterback, and a few other good players, but I’m still not convinced by the way this team is run despite the pair of shellackings they gave the Bengals last year. In Andrew Luck they have a player who can carry a team on his back, but with plenty of other areas to develop I’m not sure that a receiver in the second round was really necessary given their existing depth and issues on both lines. I think they are in with a very good chance of winning their division again this season, and may well win this game but I just have a feeling that the Bills will keep this one close.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Packers @ Bears (+5.5)

The Packers offseason was what we expected, Ted Thompson knows what he is doing, and so no one was surprised when they held onto their own, drafted solidly and will again be a contender this year. Such is the faith in the infrastructure in Green Bay that people are remaining calm about the loss of Jordy Nelson for the season to a torn ACL. There is depth at receiver, and so whilst there is no doubt that it will hurt the Packers, Rodgers is such a good quarterback that as long as their depth doesn’t get tested too much further then the Packers should be fine. It will be interesting to see whether the Clay Mathews experiment at inside linebacker becomes a staple this year as it certainly helped them last year, but the return BJ Raji could also help here as well.

The Bears are a team in transition after a mess of a season last year, but whilst I would not want Jay Cutler as my franchise quarterback, given the dysfunction that was surrounding the team and coaching staff last season you have to hope he won’t be that bad again. That said, they have lost Brandon Marshall and it remains to be seen whether the line has improved. Meanwhile the defence is transitioning schemes and it would seem to me that it will be a multi year project to turn them round. I have faith that John Fox will at least return this team to respectability, and he has a great record in improving defences, but I think it will take time. I am sure that John Fox will want to make a statement against the old enemy in his first game in charge, particularly as it is in soldier field, but I just don’t think they have the players to do it this early in the project.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Browns @ Jets (-3.5)

The Jets are an interesting proposition this year as I have a great deal of respect for Todd Bowles, the offseason looked to be building nicely and I think they are going to have a really good defence this season having put together a secondary to go with their great front seven whilst somehow stealing what for many was the best player in the draft. However, the recovery took the most Jets like of stumbles when before he could he even take a snap of the 2015 regular season, Geno Smith’s jaw was broken by a team mate with a locker room sucker punch. Once more it is a familiar story for Jets defence, a great defensive coach with a really good defence, and a questionable offence.

That said, they welcome a Browns team who have a turgid set of skills players on offence behind a good offensive line that have two players who would start on pretty much any other team’s offensive line. I’m really not sure what the plan is for this team’s development, and they certainly have missed on an awful lot of first round picks recently. Coach Pettine is a really good defensive coach, but this is another team who have too much dysfunction to succeed consistently. I think a lot of their problems on offense followed the Alex Mack injury, but it says something about a team when the only quarterback who has played for them recently with a winning record, and a native of Cleveland, is now playing for another team. The fans of Cleveland have been so loyal to this team, and deserve better, but I think this will be another season of frustration for the city.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Chiefs @ Texans (-1.5)

This is one of those games that I have gone back and forth on.

I have been watching the Texans on hard knocks all season and have seen the first three of their preseason games. It’s not exactly a secret that I’m a huge fan of JJ Watt, and I would love to see Jadeveon Clowney make a difference this season, but a lot is resting on the performance of Brian Hoyer at quarterback, but having watched him play I feel that you can win with him and this team has more around him than the Browns team of recent years. It remains to be seen if they can cope with the loss of Arian Foster, who is hugely important to them when fit, but in JJ Watt they have one of the few defensive players who can make enough of a difference to turn a game on his own.

The Chiefs are a solid football team that in case you hadn’t heard, struggled getting the ball to their outside receivers, but they have strong defence with a pair of great pass rushing linebackers and one of my favourite defensive tackles who I am very worried about as back injuries are never easy to come back and I really want to see Dontari Poe causing havoc in the middle of the Chiefs defence again. They also have one of the leagues great rushing backs in Jamaal Charles. I’m really looking forward to seeing them in London this year and I think that they should be in the playoff hunt again this year.

I can see this being a tight game between two teams in that tier just below the teams you expect to make the playoffs, but I just have more faith in the Chiefs as a team and Alex Smith as a quarterback. I’ve changed my mind multiple times as I’ve written about both teams, including during this conclusion, but last year taught me to trust my first instinct in cases like this so with a great deal of worry, not to mention betrayal of my man crush, I will reluctantly back the Chiefs in this one. I would not put money on this game!

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Seahawks @ Rams (+3.5)

The Seahawks have had an interesting offseason, dominated by contract talks with their starters and in particular Russell Wilson. They also pulled off a trade to bring in Jimmy Graham, and whilst Kam Chancellor is still holding out, there is an awful lot of talent on this roster. It may take them time to get going as a number of important players are coming back from injury, but the Seahawks once again have to be considered one of the elite challengers in the NFC. It will be interesting to see how they transition from a team who can pack their roster thanks to having a cheap quarterback playing at a high level, to one that has to pay that quarterback, but for now I have faith that Pete Carroll will be able to keep this team on the right track.

I’m really not sure what to make of the Rams this year. Their defensive front looked terrifying on paper last year, but between a scheme shift and injury, it took a long time for them to get going, but in the offseason they managed to increase their depth with the addition of Nick Fairley. However, I’m not at all sure of how Nick Foles is going to play, and they are awfully banged up at running back right now. I think that Jeff Fisher will pull out the stops to give them another solid season, but I’m not sure they will turn the corner, and whilst they usually play the Seahawks tough at home, I have to go with the visiting team in this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Dolphins @ Redskins (+2.5)

There is real hope for Dan and his Dolphins team, but whilst I’m not sure I would have invested the amount of money in a non quarterback that the Dolphins gave Ndamukong Suh, I can understand why they did. They have a young promising quarterback who is still on his rookie deal, and Suh is a hard worker who will set the tone for that defence and help a pass rush and run defence that went missing down the stretch. I can also see Ryan Tannerhill taking another step forward, in fact I’m fairly sure it was the progress he made in his first year under Bill Lazer as Offensive Coordinator that kept Joe Philburn his job. There was talk that this was the year that they could perhaps topple the Patriots in the AFC East, but now that Brady’s ban has been overturned, I think it could be a tough ask.

That said, there are worse places to start your campaign than in Washington. What started off with a solid draft and a promising looking approach to the offseason has once again become bogged down in the status and play of Robert Griffin. This is another team where there is a continued stretch of dysfunction and I think that this is going to be another long season for the fans in Washington.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Panthers @ Jaguars (+4.5)

The Jaguars have been building through youth for a while, and it feels like this was supposed to be the year that some of the promise finally began to show through. So it was a real kick in the teeth when their first round pass rusher Dante Fowler didn’t even make it through OTAs before tearing his ACL and being done for the season. Their big free agent signing Julius Thomas is battling some combination of a broken finger and tendon issues, and so I would imagine that Jaguar fans could well be fearing the worst. However, I still feel they are heading in the right direction, and for Gus Bradley it is probably a do or be fired season.

It didn’t feel like the Panthers of this season were too much different from the team of last season until they lost Kelvin Benjamin for the season to another of this preseason’s rash of ACL tears. There seems to have been more rookie wide receivers make an in impact in their rookie years recently, much like Benjamin did last year, but whilst I can see the logic of drafting a big target as Devin Funchess as a target for Cam Newton who is not the most accurate of quarterbacks, I don’t think he is the kind of polished receiver prospect you would want to be relying on to fill the void having lost your number one receiver. The defence will play well again this season, but I have a feeling that this game will be tight, and that the Jaguars will cover at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Lions @ Chargers (-2.5)

I’m really not sure about either of these teams.

The Chargers appear to have secured the future service s of Phillip Rivers, and there is no way that their offensive line can be as beaten up as they were last season so the offence can hopefully recapture some of their best form from last season once Antonio Gates comes back from his four game PED suspension. However, apart from Eric Weddle, there just aren’t a lot of defensive players that really inspire me and I wonder how they are going to cope this year. That said, if Rivers can sustain his early season form behind a healthier line then this could be a team to keep an eye on.

The Lions will be a team to watch, but possibly for different reasons. Last season’s return to the playoffs was brought about by a new disciplined approach that Head Coach Jim Caldwell was able to bring to the team in his first year in charge. However, this is a very different roster than the one last year as not only did they lose Ndamukong Suh, but lost Nick Fairley, and it will be interesting to see how their defence rebuilds itself around Haloti Ngata. Having watched Ngata over the years in division games, I know what a good player he has been, but a gap controlling 3-4 nose tackle, even one as good as Ngata, does not really replace the two players the Lions have lost. I also have questions about Matthew Stafford, who never seems to win the big games when they count. If Calvin Johnson can stay healthy, then a pairing of him and Golden Tate will be one of the more fearsome starting receiver pairs in the NFL, but there are questions at running back and the offensive line has to do a better job than last year if this team are going to build on the previous season’s success.

I’m not convinced by Stafford on the road, and so despite the points I am going to back Phillip Rivers at home to get the job done with his offence.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Saints @ Cardinals (-2.5)

The Cardinals stumbled into the playoffs last year despite the carnage at quarterback, but have lost Todd Bowles to the Jets as Head Coach, and there are still questions about their running backs and offensive line. The return of Carson Palmer should help the offence if he can stay healthy. The real test will be how they adjust on defence to the shift in personnel in the secondary and their new defensive coordinator, but after what Bruce Arians and his staff managed to do last season, I have faith that they will be competing for a playoff place once again this season.

The Saints on the other hand, are a team that’s in flux and I have mixed feelings about them. It was a surprise to see them trade away Jimmy Graham, the tight end that has been the centre piece in what they have done in the last few years, but it appears that Sean Payton is trying to take some of the load off Drew Brees’s shoulders and if anyone can pull this off successfully it is Payton. However, this is also a team who have been badly managing their cap for years, and I worry about their talent on defence. I’m not sure Roby Ryan is going to be able to turn it round this year, which could make things very tough for a team trying to run the ball more to extend the career of their great, but aging quarterback.

The Saints really struggled last season, and I’m not sure how much better they are going to be this one so whilst I’m a little nervous about the pick. I’ll back the Cardinals to be too strong in their home opener against the Saints.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Bengals @ Raiders (+3.5)

After years of horror, there was actually some hope for Raiders fans last season. Khalil Mack shone in a linebacking group that I thought was coming together nicely, and Derek Carr did enough to suggest he may be their quarterback for years to come. It will be interesting to see what effect Jack Del Rio will have on the team, but in drafting Amari Cooper the Raiders are clearly trying to give Carr every chance to succeed. They were a tough team to play at the end of last season, and their fans will be hoping that this continues into this season.

Then Bengals look to be loaded on offence this year, with a number of players back from injury and once again it will be playoff win or bust for them. They have a tough schedule and this is not exactly the start Marvin Lewis would have wanted, but whilst I still have some concerns about the defence, the pass rush looked markedly better in preseason, and whilst it was a blow to lose Terrance Newman, you can see why the Bengals did as first round picks Dre Kirkpatrick and Darqueze Dennard have looked good as they work into the rotation alongside Adam Jones and Leon Hall.

I think the Raiders will make this a tough game, and the points give me a slight pause, but the optimist in me sees the Bengals taking care of business this year, and getting off to a good start in Oakland.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Ravens @ Broncos (-4.5)

The Broncos have had an interesting offseason as John Elway has brought in a coach in Gary Kubiak that he knows very well, and whom he believes will make sure that the Broncos go out with a fight rather than a whimper. The nervousness will still surround how much Peyton Manning has left, and whether he will be more willing to relax his legendary work habits to protect his body a bit more. Between the scheme change, and the rebuilt offensive line there are a lot of questions, and it hasn’t helped that as good as Elway has been in free agency, the draft has not yielded a lot of high quality players recently. That said, the defence looks to have improved and if Manning can’t live up to his legendary past, it appears that he might not have to as the defence has the tools to make sure that he doesn’t have to score thirty points a game to win. I think they should have another competitive season, but there is going to be a hint of the circus surrounding this team until Manning finally calls it a day.

The Ravens are now on their third offensive coordinator in three years, and although I only saw a little bit of them in preseason, their receivers worry me and at some point all this change has to catch up with them. They are a really well run franchise, and have been managing to re-tool effectively around Joe Flacco’s enormous contract. Their defence front continues to be excellent, but I’m not sure that their secondary that was truly awful at the end of last season due to injury, will be fully back to where they want it this season. I expect another black and blue AFC North battle this year, and the Ravens are going to be there or there abouts, but I just expect the Broncos to take care of business at home on opening day.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Titans @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

This is the battle of first round rookie quarterbacks. The Buccaneers were seen by some as a trendy sleeper pick last season, but this team who had apparently won in the free agency race had a truly rotten season. Despite a trade to get Logan Mankins and signing swing tackle Anthony Collins who had always played well for the Bengals, the o-line didn’t gel and the only bright spot was the play of Mike Evans who managed to mass over one thousand yards in his first season in the NFL. Things however, were not a lot better on defence, and it is a sign of the offseason problems that both high price free agents the Bucs prised from the Bengals are no long the team with Anthony Collins being cut and is a free agent, whilst Michael Johnson has returned to the Bengals and is still being paid by the Bucs. However, a new season brings new hope in the shape of first round pick Jameis Winston, a player who can make all the throws, but was constantly questions about off the field issues during the draft process. Time will tell if he was a good pick, but I’ve not heard too much about the Bucs this offseason and there is a lot to put right.

The Titans were one of the most anonymous teams in the NFL last season, but were the source of constant speculation during the offseason before they finally picked quarterback Marcus Mariota. He was not an obvious fit for Ken Wisenhunt’s offensive system, but there has been a real buzz surrounding him this preseason. The addition of Dick LeBeau and his famous zone blitz to the coaching staff is a fascinating move that in combination with possibly finding a franchise quarterback seems to be giving this team an identity. The proof will be in how they perform this season, but the Titans traditionally have been better than their recent malaise and I’m not sure what the Bucs have done to get an extra half point at home. I have a feeling that the Titans could well pull this game out and win the battle of the rookies.

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Giants @ Cowboys (-5.5)

The Cowboys have had an interesting offseason. I can see the logic in them not resigning running back DeMarco Murray to a huge contract given that he’s not had a history of staying fit and had basically four hundred and fifty touches last season. This is particularly understandable as whilst their restrained draft strategy has yielded one of the best offensive lines in the league, their cap management has been a mess and they only had the money to resign one of their big free agents and it really had to be Dez Bryant. However with the o-line still looking excellent, a healthier Tony Romo it is not the offense that worries me about the Cowboys. I was not the only one who was expecting their defence to be a disaster last season, but somehow coordinator Rod Marinelli managed to bring together a unit that did enough for the Cowboys to get into the playoffs. However, whilst the pass rush will be improved with the risk that unfortunately paid of in their signing of number 76 as his suspension was reduced to four games, the secondary worries me, particularly with the injury to their cornerback Orlando Scandrick who is out for the season.

The Giants made some progress on offence last year as Eli Manning bedded into the new offensive system of Ben McAdo, but the real bright spot was the play of Odell Beckham. Unfortunately, that might be all the Giants fans have to hold onto this season as there are questions about their offensive line, and a real dearth of talent on the defence. This wasn’t helped by the firework accident that Jason Pierre-Paul suffered that resulted in him voluntarily having his index finger amputated in an attempt to be ready for the season, a decision that doesn’t seem to have paid off.

I’m not sure whether the Cowboys are going to repeat their performance of last year, but at home I think they have more than enough to cover these points against the Giants.

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Eagles @ Falcons (+0.5)

The Falcons were a mess last season, not helped by a wave of injuries to their offensive line, they finished 6-10 and it was time for a change. With a franchise quarterback in place ownership chose to go for defensive in their decision to bring in Seattle defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. This would seem to make sense as the Falcons defence, and in particular their pass rush was a mess, and by giving Kyle Shanahan the best probably the best quarterback of his NFL career the offence should take care of itself. I’m not as familiar with their offseason moves as I should be, but it will be fascinating to see what aspects of the Seattle defence he brings with him as he tries to turn round the defence, and what impact his rookie pass rusher Vic Beasley will have.

If the Falcons have been a bit quiet in the offseason, at least to my eyes, the Eagles have been making all kinds of headlines. No one can accuse Chip Kelly of being hesitant with his knew front office role, and whilst I would question some of the ways he has chosen to spend his money, there is not doubting his talent as a coach. The team has looked excellent in the preseason and they are favourites to be challengers in the NFC. There is the question of whether Sam Bradford can stay healthy, but I shall look forward to finally seeing this team on coaching tape, and I think they should win this one comfortably, even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Vikings @ 49ers (-2.5)

The turmoil of the offseason for the 49ers has left their fans reeling. With the loss of so many players to retirement, this a remade roster, and the hiring of internal candidate Jim Tomsula was not the kind of signing to excite the fans. There is still a good level of talent on the team and so I do not expect the atrocious season that some were predicting, but it is going to be a tough year. The big questions are whether this team will be able to remake the defence having lost so many players, and whether spending time with Kurt Warner will have helped Colin Kaepernick make the developmental steps that are needed for him to progress as a player. It will also be interesting to see how Jarryd Hayne fairs having made the roster, but when he has the ball in his hands the Australian rugby league player is a dynamic runner, and a natural punt returner.

The Vikings are so many peoples’ sleeper team this year that they don’t even count as a surprise any more. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has really looks to have taken another step in his development this preseason, and Mike Zimmer is continuing his excellent run with defences. The hire of Norv Turner as an offensive coordinator seemed like a really smart decision last year, and I think the Zimmer/Turner combination is going to continue to get results this season. I feat they may just miss out on the playoffs, but this is a team on the rise and I think they start with a win against the recovering 49ers.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

What I Have Been Watching

31 Monday Aug 2015

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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Andy Dalton, Arizona Cardinals, Cincinnati Bengals, Hard Knocks, Houston Texans, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles

I’m still catching up with games after my holiday, so it feels somewhat redundant to bringing your detailed round ups of the first week’s action with the third going on at the moment. Let’s face it, if you are coming here for your breaking news then I question your use of the internet. That said, there are still lots of relevant things to discuss as I take you through what I’ve been watching, and what I’ve been missing as well.

I’ll start with the Bengals, and whilst I’m hopeful that the defensive line rotation already looks more effective, and the first team offense look good as it marched down the field to get a touchdown on the opening drive.

What I really want to talk about here are quarterbacks. There is no question that everybody is waiting for Andy Dalton to backup his four playoff appearances in his first four seasons with a playoff win. In fact there’s no shortage of people calling for his head and saying that the Bengals should move on. However, whilst I’m not a Dalton apologist, I do think there is a more nuanced position to be taken in between the two camps.

There is no doubt that when is off, his play looks terrible. He can look lost, miss throws, and people question his leadership. The thing is that leadership is about how you do your job and get the best of those around you, and it doesn’t have to be done by shouting and leading from the front. But leadership also has to be earned, and in the recent seasons we seen the trend in the NFL has been to play quarterbacks much earlier and be less patient with them.

Now apart from the physical tools required to play the game, there is a huge quantity of data for a quarterback to process so he can execute the play for each play that he is on the field. To get good at this requires the right kind of brain, but also a huge number of reps, be them mental, practice, or in the game. There simply aren’t enough good quarterbacks to go round for a league of thirty-two, and so whilst everyone would love to have an elite franchise quarterback, you can win with above average quarterback play and I wonder how many players could win if they were in a situation where they were developed properly over time.

Last year’s playoff loss was horrible to watch, but the team were so injured in the skill positions when it came to receivers, that the offence couldn’t move the ball. Now at that point Dalton couldn’t throw the team better like Brady has done in the past. However, Brady is in the discussion as one of the best quarterbacks ever, and so let’s not throw Dalton out just yet.

Particularly as which of the Bengals’ quarterback would you replace him with? AJ McCarron had shoulder problems last year and has been troubled by a rib injury this season so I’ve yet to see him take a snap yet, even if his performance in game two was enough to have Josh Johnson released.

It was Josh Johnson’s performance that to me highlighted the problem of quarterbacking in this league. There were plays that he made with his arm and legs that demonstrated why he has hung around the league for six seasons already, but the lack of consistency was troubling. For me he is too quick to take off and use his legs, although he at least doesn’t take the kind of hits that are truly terrifying, but in the first game he threw two balls that should have been intercepted, and at least one if not both could have been returned for touchdowns.

It is coming towards the time where you may well have to decide that Dalton is not going to develop enough, and that it is time to move on, but I don’t think the Bengals are there yet. I am hopeful that with Hue Jackson going into his second year as offensive coordinator, that this team can get the playoff monkey off Dalton, and Marvin Lewis’ back.

So moving on from the Bengal’s first game, let us talk about preseason games and what I can see, as well as one of my favourite series around this time of year, namely Hard Knocks.

I haven’t been back to watch the years I wasn’t able to see, but as a football obsessive it doesn’t really matter who the team is as I love getting this glimpse of what is going on. This year is even better for me as we’re getting to watch JJ Watt in training, which should just be a series in of itself. However, I have enjoyed watching Bill O’Brien as a head coach, and it always nice to see the personalities behind the facemasks, which is all you see of so many players.

However, it has highlighted the problems of trying to analyse games deeply when you only have the TV copy, which is what you have for preseason on Gamepass. Through commentary, and replay you can see what’s going on if it is highlighted, but if you’re trying to look out for specific players, or watch certain coverage to figure out how s player got so wide open, it can be really difficult without the all twenty-two and end zone views. It also means that you tend to focus on skill players, and flashy defensive plays, but you miss a lot of what is going on around the lines or in the receiving game before the player catches the ball.

It is interesting to me that so often people seem to want their coaches to be all out disciplinarians, and that the term player’s coach is as often used more as a criticism than a complement. I have found it fascinating to watch the way Mike Vrabel has been coaching the Texans’ linebackers, and in particular Kourtnei Brown. I don’t want to single out Vrabel for criticism as he is working in a culture that he’s deeply steeped in, he was a really good player, and he is trying to bring out the best in his charges. But different people respond to different types of coaching, and I wonder if there was not a more nuanced way to approach the message he was trying to get across. That said, Brown had an amazing sequence of snaps in the third quarter of their game against the 49ers, getting two sacks along side multiple pressures as things really began to click for the NFL journeymen who may yet make the squad. I’ll be interested to see the rest of their games, and I shall make sure to have watched their third game before I watch the fourth episode of Hard Knocks as that is the only thing I am up to date with so far.

So, if I was frustrated by the camera angles in the Texans game as I was looking to spot the players I had been watching in Hard Knocks, the Colts at the Eagles was the game I made most notes about of the preseason week one games. I picked two teams because I wanted to look at their coaching thank to the offseason reading I had been done and this proved to be a good choice in this game.

The real proof of what Chip Kelly has been doing in the offseason will be how they perform in the games, and in this first preseason game, things looked pretty damn good. But what I really want to focus on this week is an aspect I particularly liked about the Eagles offence, and don’t worry folks, it wasn’t Tim Tebow.

There has been a lot of talk about how good Kelly’s system is, and that it is quarterback proof. I might not go that far as I don’t think any system can really cope with bad quarterback play, but it is really well structured, and what I really admired about it whilst watching this game was the commitment to deception, and specifically the run/pass questions it asked of the oppositions defence.

Apart from the use of quarterback options plays, if you watch the backfield of the Eagles, on almost every play the quarterback/running back gives you a look of the opposite of what they are doing. You have quarterbacks faking that they’ve kept the ball on run plays, play action passes, and draw plays. This commitment forces the defensive players to make a read on every play, which means they have to respect both possibilities and this can get you easy receptions just as much as route combinations designed to attack a particular coverage.

From what I can see, one of the reasons that rookie tight end Eric Tomlinson was wide open in the second quarter, was because Cam Johnson had to make a read on the play fake run as he dropped into coverage with Tomlinson, and so he was just a fraction late, taking too flat of an angle to make a tackle on the Eagles tight end and so what could have been a short gain goes for nineteen yards.

The pace of the Eagles’ offence is really hard to judge on the condensed view, other than that the coverage is frequently scrambling to catch up and a number of plays were missed or picked up half way through as they were too quick for the TV team who were still looking at the previous play, so you can see how it can stress a defence.

The final game I watched from the first week was the Chiefs at the Cardinals, and in this is the hardest for me to comment on. The Cardinals have had a change in defensive coordinator this year, and the number of defensive backs that they were typically using last year in combination with the way they rushed the passer is something that’s really hard to look out without really going over game film rather than the TV game footage.

However, it was really nice to Carson Palmer back and playing, and you can see the potential in Logan Thomas, certainly with his arm, but he still needs time to develop. The team moved the ball well with the first team, but I shall be really interested to see how they develop going forward, and hopefully will get a better understanding of what Bruce Arians is planning for the upcoming season.

I have a lot more games to watch, as I try to catch up with the NFL, but going over games isn’t exactly a chore. So roll on more games, the season is coming!

And So the Games Begin

12 Wednesday Aug 2015

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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Hall of Fame, Minnesota Vikings, NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers

Why is it okay for you to be excited about the NFL preseason whilst you don’t care about preseason football (soccer for any Americans reading this, although I will point out we got there first)?

That was the question my equally sports obsessed other half asked me over dinner tonight as I mentioned wanting to write up the first pre-season game this evening, and it is as good a question to answer.

My response was two things. Firstly, each Premiership football team is guaranteed thirty-eight games in the league each season, plus various cup competitions, and for some Europe. In the NFL, your team is guaranteed sixteen games and that is it. Both seasons are marathons for their players, but in very different ways. Secondly, in the NFL the preseason counts. Not directly in terms of record, but right now the teams’ rosters are ninety strong, yet by the time the season starts in a month they will be cut to fifty-three. This is a crucial time for a lot of players, who are not just pursuing their dream of playing professional football, but who are putting their bodies on the line in a game that injures everyone, and in which you only have so long to maximise your earning potential. It is worth remembering that for all the starts and the Hall of Famers, the average NFL career is three and a half season , although according to the NFL that figure increases if you make an opening day roster. Either way, there is a reason why it is said that NFL stands for Not For Long.

So what did I learn from the Hall of Fame game? Well for starters, I remembered my notation system from last year, but you won’t really care about that.

The Steelers lost to the Vikings 3-14, but my first take away was that the Steelers look to have some good you receivers floating around their roster. Their receiver/running back Dri Archer particularly caught the eye both running from the shotgun and as a receiver, but equally rookie Shakim Phillips pulled in a lovely one handed catch on a thirty-five yard reception. However, every rep in practice is evaluated, yet alone in the game, so the two key drops that rookie Jesse James will be haunting him. Particularly as the first on fourth and one cost the Steelers a touchdown, and the second bounced out of his hands and was picked off by Brian Peters. It’s also worth remembering that the drop also cost Landry Jones a touchdown and gave him an interception, and neither of those plays were the quarterback’s fault, but he could also carry the can as his stats have been affected.

The Vikings looked good throughout the game. They moved the ball well, and what little we saw from Teddy Bridgewater was encouraging. More importantly, their o-line seemed to be holding up okay, and that was a real problem last season but it is very early. They also appeared to have some good looking young receivers, and fifth rounder Stefon Diggs will have done his chances of making the team no harm with a sixty-two yard punt return that only just failed to make the end zone. The defence is looking good too, and I trust that Mike Zimmer will continue to improve that side of the ball.

The Steelers look as if they will be a real force again on offence, but I’m not sold yet on their defensive rebuild and they were not good on that side of the ball so it will be interesting to see how they develop having moved the legendary Dick LaBeau on.

You can see why the Vikings are considered as one of the up and coming teams for this season, any division where you face Green Bay twice a year is going to be tough to make the playoffs from, but I think we’ll continue to see improvement from them.

I’m about to disappear on holiday for a week, but I’ll be watching all of my selected teams’ pre-season games plus Hard Knocks, and once I’m back home will be writing them up and heading on into the season. Who says Christmas is the most wonderful time of the year?

A Coach’s Time of Year

09 Sunday Aug 2015

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Arizona Cardinals, Bruce Arians, Chip Kelly, Cincinnati Bengals, Houston Texans, JJ Watt, NFL, Philadelphia Eagles, Training Camp

With training camps open across the NFL, I have been looking back at my offseason reading and thinking about something that is talked about in America when comparing the major sports. It is often said that baseball is a GMs’ league, basketball is a players’ league, but that the NFL is a coaches’ league. This is an oversimplification for all of the sports, but in the NFL the level of competition is such that a coach can only do so much to overcome a real deficit in talent given how fine the margins are between winning, but this is the part of the season where a coach really demonstrates what does make the NFL a coaches’ league.

A football coach has to be more than just someone who gives an inspired half-time speech, in fact there is only so often he can pull that trick given the frequency of games, and how often it is do or die time. In fact it seems to me that there is so much to do for a head coach that we routinely oversimplify their role when judging them. There are thousands of hours of planning, preparation, and training that goes into getting a team to the game, yet alone managing the play calls, in-game adjustments, the clock, and liaising with your team of coaches. There is so much more to their job than whether you should run or pass a yard out from the end zone with twenty-six seconds left in the Super Bowl, although when you have one of the best short yardage backs in the game perhaps you should have run.

However, whilst there has been talk of how the Seahawks are going to come back from that loss, and the scars that decision will have left on Pete Carroll, having read Carroll’s book on his coaching philosophy I think that this has been over blown. His whole coaching philosophy is built round competition, and specifically always competing to win forever. I don’t know how many NFL coaches have gone away, sat down and deliberately written down their philosophy in such a structured way, but I’m pretty sure that a focus around always competing with yourself to do things better than they have been done before is likely to deal with a set back like losing the Super Bowl in such a heart breaking manner pretty well.

So why is this time of year so important to the coaches? The answer is pretty straight forward, time. During the marathon of the season there is so much time spent dealing with recovery, installing the game plan, travel, and dealing with matters that crop up that there is only so much time a coach can spend actually working with their players. It is in training camp where a coach gets to work for a prolonged period setting the tone for the upcoming season. It is also the time where a coach has almost double his game day roster, and so whilst you never want to over work your players, it is possible to get a huge amount of work done and to get in all the reps you want. This is where there is time to work on technique, getting the rookies and free agents steeped in how your team plays football, the calls, the structure of your playbook, and getting your timing down. These are all standard parts of training camp that remain true even if the old fashioned two-a-day practices and some of the more confrontational contact drills are becoming relics of the past.

There has been talk for years that the preseason is too long, and that coaches only two of the pre-season games to get their teams ready. I wouldn’t presume to know if this is true or not, but just trying to keep up with the news coming out of a training camp is a mission in itself. Like much of the pre-season content, it is filled with optimism. Players that are in the best shape of their lives, players on the come back trail from injury, the new picks looking good already. The proof is coming though, we have the NFL Hall of Fame game tonight, and next we’ll start getting actual football.

I wrote last year about how there is plenty to fascinate during the offseason and I am really looking forward to the up-coming preseason. It was quite hard for me to narrow down the teams I was going to watch through the preseason, but in the end I managed to get the list down to four. The Bengals were a given, and they are the team that I will understand best due to following them with the obsessive interest of the fan. The next obvious team was the Houston Texans, not just because I am such a huge fan of JJ Watt, but because they are this year’s team being covered by the TV series Hard Knocks. I will be fascinated to see how Watt practices as his work ethic is widely praised, but it will also be great to follow the series and watch all the games.

I am planning to watch two more teams, and after my offseason reading it was actually fairly easy to identify the theme if not whittle down to the two remaining teams. It became obvious to me that what I love about Football is not just the physicality and spectacle, but the tactics involved and the coaching that going into the games. So if I was going to focus on well coached teams who would be the other teams I would watch this season?

The Cardinals managed to get to the playoffs despite losing two starting quarterbacks and in my opinion were one of the best coached teams of last year. They have lost their defensive coordinator as Todd Bowles has become head coach of the New York Jets, but given the fantastic job Bruce Arians and his staff did I really want to take a look at them this preseason. It is also going to be interesting to see what effect the hiring of the NFL’s first female coach will have, even if it is only for the span of training camp. Doctor Jen Welter has played professional football for fourteen years, has a master’s degree in sports psychology and PhD in psychology, and so is a pretty incredible person just from the get go so I hope things go well with her working with the inside linebackers during camp.

The other team I am going to be watching is one that has dominated the offseason news when it has not been focussed on deflated footballs or other matters of league discipline management. I first really went all in with Chip Kelly whilst listening to him on the Ross Tucker’s podcast, and I was seriously impressed. However, since he’s been given the GM responsibility Kelly has demonstrated that he is not afraid to do things his way, but I’m not entirely sold. At the start of the offseason moves I could see an underlying plan, that he would trust his system to generate offense, and that he would invest in players on the defensive side of the ball. Then Kelly started signing expensive running backs and letting go of starting offensive linemen. There is also the small matter of not having an established starter at quarterback and not making the playoffs last season. I will be fascinated to watch what all the turmoil of the offseason produces this year, and shall have to make a point of watching the TV feed for some of their games as you simply do not pick up the tempo difference between the Eagles’ offence and other teams when you are watching the condensed cut or coaches’ tape.

So roll on the first game this evening as the football season gets closer and closer to starting.

The Bengals Offseason, Featuring a Brush with Hardy

02 Sunday Aug 2015

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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Cincinnati Bengals, Greg Hardy, NFL

I have had a draft of this post saved for months, but life kept getting in the way of things getting restarted. However, with training camps opening up across the league there can be no more delays so I’m going to kick things off properly with a look at the Bengals.

I have been enjoying my break, and whilst there were lots of things I could have been writing about, the amount of coverage the offseason gets these days seems to be getting somewhat out of hand. That is not to say that this is not an important time of year, but every offseason we have winners declared for free agency that go on to have rotten seasons (see the 2014 Buccaneers) and draft grades handed out to teams before their new charges have even taken a snap. It is not so much the quantity, as the certainty of conclusions about the upcoming season and the topics that just will not die (deflate gate, and Tom Brady’s ongoing appeals), that gets me down.

I’m not going to be exhaustive about the Bengals offseason, but will take a look at the general shape and pick out some key points.

“It’s hard to be a Bengals fan… How do you find hope in that situation?”

This is a quote was from a podcast discussing the state of the Bengals franchise, and in fairness the hosts were in the middle of making positive points about what a good job Marvin Lewis had done given the situation that he is working in. But there was a questioning of the lack of aggression in free agency, and how could you get excited about the changes for the upcoming season. This comment was also made before the draft, but I’ll cover that in more detail in a bit.

I understand the fans who think that Marvin Lewis should have lost his job, or been moved to general manager before last season so that Mike Zimmer could have been made head coach, not have his contract extended by another year despite not winning a playoff game in twelve seasons.

The problem with that is I think there is something of a double standard here. The Bengals may have the longest playoff win drought in the NFL, but they have just been to the playoffs for the fourth straight season, and this resurgence has been built through the draft. Gone are the days when the team would reach for need, and they have been consistently recognised as a very talented team who draft well. There are still flaws, as all teams have flaws, but their focus in recent offseasons has been holding onto their own and drafting well. This is how they have gone from the national joke Bungles to a respectable team, usually in the hunt for a playoff place in one of the toughest divisions in football.

This is also the team that let Michael Johnsons go last year as they didn’t want to compete with the contract that the Buccaneers were offering, received a third round compensatory pick this offseason, as well as resigning Johnson after he was cut by the Buccaneers. Between this move and the signing of a couple defensive tackles, the Bengals have improved the defensive-line rotation enough that they didn’t have to reach for a pass rusher in the draft, although they have to improve on the disaster that was the pass rush last year but making Wallace Gilberry a situations pass rusher again can only help.

This for me is the key point, the Bengals’ free agent moves weren’t designed to fix everything, but were designed so that going into the draft they can stick to the mantra of recent years, which is to pick the best player responsible. I’m not saying that the resigning of Rey Maualuga, and the acquisition of AJ Hawk have solved the linebacker problems the team had last year, but they mean the Bengals have enough depth that they can pick at the right point. Plus, if you saw the difference in the way the defence stopped the run with and without Maualuga last season, you would be happy he’s back with your team. There are only so many Luke Kuechlys to go round.

However, I am now about to contradict myself a bit as I found the Bengals draft a little confusing. I understand the need to draft a tackle with both starters Andrew Whitworth and Andre Smith coming to the end of their contracts, and Whitworth coming towards the end of a great career, but there doesn’t seem to be any sign of Whitworth slowing down yet, so picking tackles with their first two picks seems a little odd given the problems with the pass rush and depth at receiver last year. However, it doesn’t look like the team reached, they picked up a linebacker and have really made a real effort to resolve the problems a tight ends with two draft picks and a couple of rookie free agents signed at that position. At the end of the day, you can only judge a draft three or four seasons later so I’m not going to pass judgement here.

Nonetheless, the lack of an early pass rusher pick would indicate to me that they really are happy with the depth they have on the d-line and are expecting more out of recent picks Margus Hunt and Will Clarke. However, there is one of other topic I have to mention before we get back to football as much of the talk at the beginning of the offseason was the Bengals’ anaemic pass rush, and one name was repeatedly mentioned as a possible solution was Greg Hardy.

“He looked me in my eyes and he told me he was going to kill me. I was so scared I wanted to die. When he loosened his grip slightly, I said, ‘Just do it. Kill me.’ At that point I accepted I was going to die.”

That is a quote from Hardy’s ex-girlfriend during his trial where it was also revealed that he threw her onto a sofa covered in loaded assault rifles. The conviction has been wiped away as part of North Carolina law due to the court not being able to find the woman for Hardy’s appeal to be heard in front of a jury, and it is believed there has been a financial settlement between them. This has cleared the way for Hardy’s return to the NFL, and what’s more he has had his suspension for this season reduced from ten games to four.

It is worth repeating that this man was still found guilty by a judge of assaulting a female and communicating threats.

Unfortunately, he can also rush the passer.

This meant that he was mentioned by the media as one solution to the Bengals defensive problem. I understand why, but I hated the way it was always couched in a way where the non-football issues would be acknowledged tacitly, but skirted over to get to the football part. I’m sorry, not good enough. I did not, and do not want him on my team. And I am not sure how many players would. You often hear of the sanctity of locker room and how disagreements there should not get out, yet the one team who did see fit to sign Hardy began to have rumblings at the start of their conditioning programme.

There is a genuine discussion to be had about rehabilitation of people, and it is something we have seen in the UK sport world with the case of unrepentant convicted rapist Ched Evans looking for a team to take him on again. He has the backing of the Professional Footballers’ Association that he should be allowed to play, but every team that has been linked to him has been besieged by objection and has eventually backed away from actually signing the player. One defence of signing Evans that has been offered is that he has a right to make a living, but I would not say he should be stopped from getting a job, but I don’t see that he has a divine right to play a sport and be held up us a role model whilst earning multiples of the average wage.

The sickening thing in both cases is that there seems to be an equation that revolves around talent versus disruption. Getting back to the NFL, someone like Hardy or Ray Rice are talented enough that teams have tried to work their way round the issue and are keen to let due process play out, where as a less talented player will simply be cut straight away. With Ray Rice, it was only when the video of him punching his then girlfriend now wife emerged that the NFL re-evaluated their punishment of him, but only after the public outcry and pressure from their sponsors got to a level that had to be dealt with. Of course they couldn’t make the new punishment stick as they had already handed down a ban so Rice is clear to play again, but so far he is still too toxic for a team to sign.

The way the NFL tries to make up rules/discipline on the fly is likely a subject I shall touch on again, as Roger Goodell has repeatedly made a mess of this, but it seems that whilst the league continues to massively profitable that the owners have no interest in replacing him. There is not an easy answer on this one, and it is not up to a sporting league to fix societal problems like domestic violence, but even with the league’s increased focus and funding of programs both within the league and externally, it would be nice if teams focussed more on the moral matter than if we think we can get away with it because of their talent.

Getting back to on the field matters, the big question to me this year is will the team finally get the playoff win that will finally get people off Marin Lewis and Andy Dalton’s back. I hope so, not only as I’m desperate for them to break this streak, but as much as I’d like to see Lewis and Dalton succeed, there is a lot of talent on this team so I really don’t want to go through a rebuild with a new coach.

Looking at Dalton’s career so far, there are questions about his ability in high pressure games, but he was so limited last season in the weapons he had to throw to that I don’t think the playoff loss can as easily be put at his feet. However, there is no doubt that he does have a wide variance in the quality of his play, but if the line continues to be one of the best in the league, and the Bengals have more health in the receiving corp along side a running back rotation that they finally sorted towards the end of the season then hopefully the Bengals can look more like the team that started so strong last year rather than be the broken one last season. It is also worth mentioning that quarterbacks used to be given a lot more time to develop in previous years, and Dalton has gone to the playoffs in every one of his four seasons in the league.

One of the other things that is also worth remembering about last season, is that the Bengals were working with two new coordinators having lost the previous offensive and defensive coordinators to head coaching positions, so making the playoffs again was a pretty good effort.

If things can be seen as looking hopeful on offence, there are more questions on the defence. The pass rush was just bad last year, so I really hope that they manage to get back to a deep rotation like the one that caused so much trouble under Mike Zimmer. It would also be brilliant to see Geno Atkins look more like himself another year from his knee injury as when fit, watching Atkins rush the passer is one of my favourite sights in the NFL. Additionally, whilst we still seem to have enough talent in the secondary, everyone is waiting nervously to see how Vontaze Burfict will come back from microfracture surgery on his knee. Hopefully the offseason signings, and the drafting of Paul Dawson will improve things this season, but the defence really missed Burfict last year.

If the team can be seen to be heading in the right direction, I am a little worried about the schedule. I don’t pay too much attention to the strength of schedule conversations as we don’t know a lot about how certain teams will play, or how healthy they will be, but I would rather not be facing the AFC or NFC west divisions as we are this year. Yet I’m still hopeful as football starts to get closer, and I do think this is the year the Bengals will get that playoff win.

That said, the offseason is always a time for optimism so lets see how things go when the season actually starts. I can’t wait!

Offseason Manifesto

25 Wednesday Feb 2015

Posted by gee4213 in Uncategorized

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Combine, Draft, NFL

It has only been a couple of weeks since we said farewell to the 2014 season, but already major things are happening in the NFL. We’ve had all the head coaches appointed for next season, and the teams are already preparing for the draft with the NFL combine just having been completed.

The draft is one of those things that generate thousands of words and hours of talk, and I can understand that as this is a time of hope for all teams, when everyone can be excited about the draft. However, the annual parade of draft grades should be taken with a grain of salt as no one really will know how successful a draft has been for several years. I will be following with some interest and hoping for pass rushers, offensive tackles, and depth at linebacker/receiver for the Bengals, but I really don’t have any expertise to bear as I don’t follow college football, so whilst I will be following the build up with interest, I won’t be regurgitating what I hear here.

That said, I will make a quick comment about the recently completed NFL combine. There is a huge amount of variables that go into the selection of a draft pick, and whilst the combine results do make up part of the equation, it is only part of the process. Those who were invited will have spent weeks in camp preparing for the various tests and drills, but the coverage is often obsessed with the forty yard dash, broad jump etc. When you take all of the tests completed together, you can get a picture of a player’s physical talents, but this is only part of what is evaluated, and it is not even the most important part of the combine.

If the underwear Olympics is the spectacle for the fans, the real work goes on in the medicals and team interviews, and even here the preparation that goes into attending the combine is hindering the teams. The prospects are so well coached that they know how to handle the interview, and have all the right answers. You only have to look at the difference between what Johnny Manziel was saying before the draft, and his behaviour during the season to see that saying the right thing, and doing, are two very different things, and I just hope that he is getting all that he needs in rehab. However, central to this whole process is the medical, where any injuries or potential problems gets scrutinised.

I very rarely have specific players in mind for my team as I generally don’t recognise them, but I no more immune to this time of year than any other fan. That said, I do believe in building your team through the draft so I am not too worried about the upcoming free agency, apart from certain players that I’d like the Bengals to hold on to.

So as the players start thinking about next season, and begin to prepare themselves, so am I. There are things I already want to change about my writing routines next year in terms of what games I will look at and what coaching tape I watch. I’m also doing some reading to try to expand my knowledge and learn more things to look for. I will try to document these things and spend the offseason bringing some more specific articles, freed as I am from the schedule imposed by the relentless run of games. It appears that even though there were times where the season got on top of me, it did not take long for the itch to return. As Ross Tucker is apt to say, I have the disease. So whilst I have already taken advantage of having a bit more time, I’m already looking to use it in the pursuit of better football writing.

So let the offseason fun begin, as I look for the small incremental improvements that combine to make any enterprise a success.

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