It has been a fairly hectic week so having finally got a close Thursday night game, I had to abandon the coach’s tape half way through this weekend, and missed another write up which is pretty frustrating. Losing another game to Dan was even more frustrating, and changing your mind on the Browns and then watching them hammer the Steelers was down right infuriating.

I can just about live with the Giants just getting blown out by the Eagles; and I should have know that the Seahawks would not win by eight, even if I wasn’t expecting them to lose; I missed on the Packers by half a point; but that Browns win is bugging me as the signs were there and I second guessed myself. Worse than all of that though is how my team is playing since their bye week. It feels like the Bengals are faltering, and whilst they are beaten up at certain spots on the roster, I’m becoming increasingly worried that the playoff win drought is going to continue for another year.

So on to the week 7 games, and the lines are horrible. As I write this introduction there are three games that I have actually picked a side on so let’s write them up and see how things go. The only thing I can take solace in is that I keep hearing professional NFL commentators say they don’t know what’s going on this season either.

Gee:     Week 6   10-5             Overall   46-45
Dan:     Week 6   11-4             Overall   49-42

Jets @ Patriots (-9.5)

So last week the Thursday night game was decided by five points, but I don’t see that happening this week. The Patriots got themselves going against the Bengals at home, and then followed it up with a very solid win away at Buffalo. Tom Brady threw for over 300 yards for the first time this season, getting four touchdowns and making use not only of Gronkowski, but Brandon LaFell who led the team in receiving yards and touchdowns. There were some notable injuries to linebacker Jerod Mayo and Steven Ridley, but the top of the AFC East looks a lot more familiar this week.

The Jets continue to struggle and I don’t see it changing this week playing in New England. Their offence is still sputtering and their defence is in danger of dropping out of the top 20 by DVOA. The only bright spot by the numbers is their special teams ranking of sixth, but in the introduction to the almanac, Football Outsiders gave a ratio of importance for the three phases as 4:3:1 in order of offence, defence, and special teams. They did lead their game for one quarter, and the defence gave Peyton Manning some problems, but having got themselves back into the game at 17-24. Geno Smith threw a pick-six and the game was over. They also could ill afford to lose another member of their secondary with Dee Milliner tearing his achilles. Having beaten the woeful Raiders in week one, they have lost by seven or more points for the rest of the season. The amount of points in this week’s spread does give me pause, but in the end I’m backing Patriots on a Thursday night game, which could get ugly.

Gee’s Pick:       Patriots
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

Dan’s Comments: – Horrible. Patriots will win, but it’s difficult to predict by how much. I’ll pick them though this week.

Falcons @ Ravens (-6.5)

This is one of the few relatively straight forward picks this week. There are only so many ways you can write that the Falcons are too injured. They still have talent on offence, but they are ranked thirty-first on defence by DVOA and are not a good road team. The Ravens on the other hand are currently ranked second overall by DVOA, are ranked top ten in all phases of the game, and are playing well. I don’t think Flacco will be throwing four touchdowns in a quarter again, but I’m happily taking the Ravens. Now watch them lose…

Gee’s Pick:       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Ravens

Dan’s Comments: – So the Bears pretty much took the Falcons apart week 6, and similarly the Ravens tore the Bucks a new one (arguably not difficult!). Comfortable Ravens win.

Vikings @ Bills (-4.5)

I don’t know what I am meant to do with this game. I haven’t had a handle on the Bills all year, but in last week’s game, the defence that has been so solid was somewhat porous against the Patriots. Kyle Orton has looked okay in parts, and is certainly a step up from Manuel, but he can’t throw interceptions if the Bills want to win.

The Vikings had a horrible loss against the Lions. In a game they have traditionally done well in, they struggled as their rookie quarterback threw three interceptions against the Lions. That said, the blame shouldn’t all be placed on Teddy Bridgewater, he was sacked eight times as the Lions pass rush harassed him so frequently that it is hard to imagine anyone thriving under those circumstances. They are thirtieth in overall DVOA and thirty-first in offence. In a week that requires them to go against another good defence I think they will struggle again. The points worry me, but I think the Bills keep themselves in the hunt in the AFC East with a win and that’s where I’m going.

Gee’s Pick:       Bills
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings

Dan’s Comments: – Vikings aren’t scoring much, but Buffalo’s defence has been shaky recently. I’ve got a feeling it’s going to be Minnesota’s week this week though.

Dolphins @ Bears (-3.5)

The Bears needed the win last week to stay competitive in their division, and they got it on the road against the Falcons. It was good Cutler in week six, who threw for 381 yards, a touchdown, but more importantly no interceptions. Their defence somehow jumped up eight places in defensive DVOA despite them beginning the game without all three of their starting linebackers. The question is how much of their win in the last game was them playing better, and how much was the Falcons playing badly.

The Dolphins seem to be playing solidly, and only narrowly lost to the Packers. They are mid league in overall ranking and offence by DVOA, horrible in special teams, and top five in defence. There are two big bits of news coming out of their weekend game. The first is the continued questions surrounding their coach Joe Philbin, who took a horrible time out with thirteen seconds on the play clock, giving Aaron Rodgers of all people a chance to take stock and prepare the game winning touchdown, which he duly got on the next play. I’ve mentioned before about the apparent dysfunction in the way this team is run, and this doesn’t seem like great game management, although there is more to being a head coach than just that. Of more significance perhaps is the loss of Knowshon Moreno, who is done for the year with an ACL tear. However, Lamar Miller has been doing well this season, and I was impressed with rookie Damien Williams in pre-season so they hopefully can cope.

I am going back and forth on this game, but I see it as another close one for the Dolphins, and whilst I don’t know if they will win, I’ll take the points and see how I do.

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Dolphins

Dan’s Comments: – Picking Dolphins again this week, partly through blind hope, and partly because I know it’s annoying Gee! Sorry mate!

Gee’s Reply: – I’m only annoyed at being three games behind to someone who is blindly picking their team, but the fault is really mine…

Bengals @ Colts (-2.5)

It may be the influence of Ross Tucker in the way he talks about ties on his podcast, but the last two games since the bye feel like losses and it seems weird to keep seeing them listed above the Ravens who have one more win. The Bengals could have won it on the last play of the game, but Nugent missed the filed goal. The offence is continuing to find ways to get points despite Andy Dalton losing more targets, and Marvin Jones has just been moved to IR and won’t be coming back this season. The defence seems to be getting gashed in the running game, and are struggling against the pass as it doesn’t matter how good your secondary is if your pass rush can’t get to the quarterback. It is too early to hit the panic button; the Bengals need to get Green back healthy and find some stops on defence, but I’m not sure this is the game to do it. It’s also worth noting that things didn’t improve on defence with the return of Vontaze Burfict, who announced his return by appearing to twist at the ankles of Greg Olsen and Cam Newton, which has to be dealt with. He is a player who plays on the edge, but there are fouls and then there is intentionally trying to injure someone. We’ll see how the league decides to deal with it, but the Bengals need him playing well and making tackles, playing the right way.

I was really impressed with both Andrew Luck and TY Hilton when I watched them last week. I also really liked the onside kick that was easily recovered to get them an extra possession. They were seventeen points up in under ten minutes and twenty-four up by the end of the first quarter. However, the Texans did manage to make a game of it and get themselves back into the game. I was fairly impressed with the Colts’ defence, but I’m not sure how much of that was the o-line and patchy nature of the Texans. In this game I like them to do well, AJ Green is out at least another week, and I’m wary of how much time Andrew Luck is going to get in this game. I’ll happily drop a win to Dan if it means the Bengals win, but I think they would need Green back to keep up in this game. I hope I am wrong.

Gee’s Pick:       Colts
Dan’s Pick:       Colts

Dan’s Comments: – To make things worse, I’m going to pick the Colts. They’re starting to roll and I think the Bengals may struggle.

Browns @ Jaguars (+4.5)

The Jaguars can’t quite seem to find a way to win. They moved off the bottom of the rankings by DVOA, but they had a chance to win their last game with an end of the game field goal but had it blocked. The defence seems to have improved a little, but Blake Bortles is getting very little blocking from his o-line, and whilst there are times when he holds on to the ball for too long, a lot of the time the defence is getting to him without having to blitz. I think they are going to be kicking themselves about this loss as it was an opportunity for them, one that I don’t think they are going to get this week.

I’m still kicking myself about my Browns pick last week, and it is not as if they only just squeaked by the points spread. The surprising thing to me is not what they are doing, but how they are doing it as the defence is only ranked twenty-ninth by DVOA and their offence is ranked number two, with Brian Hoyer at quarterback and without their star wide receiver. I don’t see anything in the Jaguars that makes me think that the Browns won’t cover this spread.

Gee’s Pick:       Browns
Dan’s Pick:       Browns

Dan’s Comments: – Not a difficult pick this one. Jags aren’t looking great, although they got agonisingly close to their first ‘W’ last weekend.

Saints @ Lions (-2.5)

The Saints were on a bye last week, but I’m not sure how much that is going to help them unless Rob Ryan has done some serious self-scouting and has a new plan for his badly misfiring defence. In fairness, the offence hasn’t been what you would expect and it will be interesting to see how they do this week against a Lions team that leads the league in defensive DVOA. They could turn it round and go on a run, but right now I need to see something from them before I will believe it.

The Lions are doing it with defence. They are struggling on offence, and look like a different team with Calvin Johnson sidelined with his ankle problems, but it’s probably best to sit him now and try to get him healthy for the home stretch. The defence not only leads the league in DVOA, but looks like it is playing that well too. They gave poor Teddy Bridgewater no time to work with last week, and having stifled Aaron Rodgers earlier in the season, I think they will do enough to win this game for their offence.

Gee’s Pick:       Lions
Dan’s Pick:       Lions

Dan’s Comments: – Tricky. I think the Lions will just about have enough to overcome New Orleans.

Panthers @ Packers (-6.5)

I’m really not sure what to make of either of these teams. The Packers got a win against the Dolphins because Aaron Rodgers is really good at football (with apologies to Bill Barnwell), and they are well ranked in DVOA, but they did only just beat the Dolphins who are very up and down. The Panthers are lower ranked than the Dolphins, but beat the Bengals who are one place above the Packers, and seem to be up and down themselves. I’m a confused mess when I watch these teams. I feel like the Packers should win, and have more faith in them than I do in Carolina, but do I have seven points worth of faith? I really don’t know, so I’m falling back on taking the points, and my first pick as if the Packers win, fine I was wrong, but I’ll kick myself if the Panthers keep it close, which I think they might. I think…

Gee’s Pick:       Panthers
Dan’s Pick:       Panthers

Dan’s Comments: – Another difficult one. Packers will win this, but not by a touchdown, so I’ll pick Carolina.

Titans @ Washington (-4.5)

So Washington lost to the Cardinals, with Kirk Cousins falling to 0-3 as a starter this season. He threw for 354 yards, two interceptions, and three picks, which explains why they lost again. The problem seems to be accuracy, as he has good moments, but he can’t seem to protect the football. The defence is keeping them in games and this could be the game that they get one back in the win column. I’m not sure how good the Titans should feel getting that a win against the 0-6 Jaguars, given that they could have lost it. Still, all wins count the same and they did block the Jaguars’ attempt at a field goal. However, I think that Washington will be a sterner a test and that the winning feeling will be a short lived one in Tennessee.

Gee’s Pick:       Washington
Dan’s Pick:       Washington

Dan’s Comments: – This is the pick I’ve been struggling with most this week. I think Washington will start to turn it round this week.

Seahawks @ Rams (+6.5)

So the big result in week six was the Seahawks losing at home to the Cowboys. The Seahawks look like they lack a little bit of depth on defence this year, even before they lost Byron Maxwell to a calf injury (he is currently listed as doubtful for this game), and are not quite the same dominant team as they were last season, although they are still pretty damn good. However, Russell Wilson has proven himself to be an excellent quarterback, and it took a fine overall performance and game plan from the Cowboys to defeat them. However, I do think that they will bounce back against the Rams, whose defence is not playing up to the level that I expected and whose offence is struggling. It was always going to be a long season for the Rams after Sam Bradford went down and I don’t see that changing here. They are at the wrong end of the DVOA standings in all three phases of the game and although I have a slight pause at the points, I don’t think they cover in this game.

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Seahawks

Dan’s Comments: – Finally an easy pick. Rams are looking pretty terrible.

Chiefs @ Chargers (-4.5)

The Chiefs are the other team coming off a bye this week, and I’m not sure that I’m happy to see them back. This is strictly because I really haven’t got a handle on how to pick this team. I saw them several times in preseason and was impressed, they have some good attacking talent and Alex Smith may not be a flashy QB, but he wins games. They are ranked in the middle of the league for everything by DVOA, and have a blow out win against the Patriots on Monday Night Football as well as loss to the generally woeful Titans. I think that they are a sold football team, but that this won’t cut it in a division with the Chargers and the Broncos.

The Chargers are playing brilliantly at the moment, but injuries might be catching up with them. The Raiders were the first team to stop the Chargers covering this season, but Philip Rivers is still playing as well as any quarterback in the league, leading the offense to a ranking of sixth by DVOA despite having no running game to support him. Now the Raiders have occasionally shown some signs of life, and they could have been buoyed by their new head coach, but I don’t want to read too much into this game. I may regret this, because as usual the points total worries me, but I’m learning my lesson last week and I’m not second guessing myself.

Gee’s Pick:       Chargers
Dan’s Pick:       Chargers

Dan’s Comments: – Chargers by 10

Giants @ Cowboys (-6.5)

The Giants ran into a brick wall against the Eagles. Their improving offence was shut out whilst giving up eight sacks, and their defence was gouged for 203 yards rushing, including LeSean McCoy’s first one hundred yard game of the season. The Giants currently are 3-3 and haven’t finished a game within a single score all year. I’m not sure what to make of their overall DVOA as a loss like this will send you into freefall, but dropping from eighth to twenty-first was pretty spectacular. So the question is what team is going to turn up this week, and the honest answer is I don’t know, but given the horrible injury to Victor Cruz I think they could struggle on offence.

Their opponents however, have done if not the impossible, then the very difficult in beating the Seahawks in Seattle. I should have given them the credit that they would cover, but I don’t feel bad about being unsure if they could win. This was the test that everybody wanted to see if the Cowboys were for real, and it appears that they are. DeMarco Murray has started the season with six one hundred yard rushing games, the only other running back to do that is Jim Brown, and any time you get mentioned with a name like that you know that something is going right. The knock on Murray has been his durability so I do wonder if they are going to lighten his workload as he is currently on pace for over four hundred carries this season, but the line is playing great, and the offence is currently top ten by DVOA. I think the Cowboys will continue their good record this week, and I just hope they cover.

Gee’s Pick:       Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

Dan’s Comments: – The Cowboys are impressing a lot of people I’m talking to at the minute. May that continue into week 7!

Cardinals @ Raiders (+3.5)

It is possible that Bruce Arians is doing the best coaching job in the NFL right now. He’s had a revolving door at quarterback and the team have suffered various injuries, yet somehow they have a 4-1 record. Their defence is ranked sixth by DVOA despite the offseason losses and current injuries. They took care of Washington last week and I expect them to do the same to the Raiders.

The Raiders played better last week, staying with the Chargers throughout the game, but ultimately couldn’t get their first win. David Carr has a really good looking arm, but was inaccurate throwing the last deep ball that was intercepted and is going through typical rookie growing pains. The problem is that in week three the Raiders hung tough with Patriots and the following week they were walloped by the Dolphins in London. It’s possible that they could play the Cardinals close this week, but I’m not prepared to back them doing it just yet.

Gee’s Pick:       Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Dan’s Comments: – Cardinals’ll be fairly comfortable this week against the Raiders.

49ers @ Broncos (-6.5)

This is probably the game of the week. The Broncos head up the DVOA rankings with an offense ranked number one and a defensive rank of two, and it has often felt like they haven’t hit top gear yet. This could very well be the game that Peyton Manning gets the record for the most touchdowns thrown by a quarterback.

The 49ers took care of the Rams in the second half of last week’s game, ultimately running out handy winners with an impressive defensive performance and some high powered plays on offence. How their defence is ranked number three by DVOA given the injuries and suspensions they have on that side of the ball is something of a question. However, with Patrick Willis now looking doubtful with a toe injury, I wonder if this is a game too far for this team. I’m going with my gut this time as the 49ers were playing the Rams last week.

Gee’s Pick:       Broncos
Dan’s Pick:       49ers

Dan’s Comments: – Two pretty well matched teams. I’ll pick SF because of the Spread.

Texans @ Steelers (-3.5)

The Steelers look like they might be the worst team in the AFC North. The big surprise for me is that they have one of the best receivers in the game in Antonio Brown, a running back that looks really good in Le’Veon Bell, yet somehow their offence has only managed ten points in their last two games. I didn’t think their o-line looked bad when I watched the coaching tape a few weeks ago, but something is clearly not working. When you couple that with a defence that is struggling, it got gouged for 158 yards last week, and is ranked a poor by Pittsburgh standards twenty-third by DVOA, you have a recipe for a disappointing season.

The Texans are so much better than last year, but they aren’t quite there yet. I’ve frequently declared my love for JJ Watt, but Arian Foster is also playing well this season, and Andre Johnson continues to be a threat. The problem is that Ryan Fitzpatrick is streaky and the team seems to be playing in the same manner. They did really well to get back into the game last week against the Colts, but you’re not going to win many games by going down twenty-four points in the first quarter. I just have a feeling that with the Steelers struggling, the Texans might be able to take advantage and even if they can’t, I’m not sure the Steelers are going to win by a lot. Cue a Steelers blowout, but that’s not what I’m picking to happen

Gee’s Pick:       Texans
Dan’s Pick:       Texans

Dan’s Comments: – Texans in this one, I think.

I had a better time with my picks last week, but it didn’t do me much good as Dan and I had matching records, so I’m still two games behind him, and he is at a respectable 50% overall. I also didn’t get a chance to write up last week’s Thursday night game as I was busy over the weekend. Sadly it was another blow out, and so I don’t feel too guilty as although I enjoy looking at the coaching tape now that I have available to me, it would be nice to get to do it for a close game.

I thought that this week’s DVOA roundup from Football Outsiders (found here), had some interesting things to say on the overall standard of teams this season, and is well worth a look if you get a chance.

There will be a slight change this week as Dan is currently away, I have his Thursday night pick and will give post the rest when he gets back before the games on Sunday. There are not a lot games that I like the lines of, so let’s take a look as it is going to be another interesting week in the NFL.

Gee:     Week 4   10-5              Overall   36-40
Dan:     Week 4   10-5              Overall   38-38

Colts @ Texans (+2.5)

I was right in suggesting that the Texans would be involved in a close game last week, as they covered in a three point loss to the Cowboys. Their defence kept them in the game, despite Tony Romo spinning away from JJ Watt to complete a 43 yard pass, and Dez Bryant making a catch over Jonathan Joseph despite perfect coverage and Joseph having an arm between Bryant’s hands during the catch. The problem for this team is going to be the offence, and whether they can give the team enough to win. In some games they will, but Ryan Fitzpatrick is a limited quarterback who only had 154 yards and an interception against the Cowboys, and this is likely to be a problem all year.

The Colts on the other hand, have the luxury of having another great quarterback, and whilst he didn’t have his best game last week, he has led his team to the thirteenth on offence by DVOA this season in only his third year. I don’t know what the Thursday night effect will be on the game, and I fear another blow out, but I’m taking the Colts.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Patriots @ Bills (+3.5)

So I didn’t pick the Patriots last week, as their week four loss taught me that to do so just because of Brady and Belichick in a prime time game was a bad reason to pick games that way. Well, they followed up that horrible loss against the Chiefs on Monday night football, by spanking the Bengals in the Sunday night game. I’ll cover the Bengals in the next game write up, but the Patriots came out aggressively and played their best football of the season. Their o- line looked better, and Brady looked like he was having fun, which is easier to do when you are winning. I’m not sure they have answered every question, but the dual tight end attack featuring a rejuvenate Rob Gronkowski, and their late preseason trade piece Tim Wright, caught the eye with 185 yards and two touchdowns between them. Add to this 220 yards on the ground and it was a long day for the Bengals defence. Despite their turbulent start to the season, they have a chance this week to take sole possession of the AFC East with a win over the Bills.

I do not have a handle on the Bills at all. They beat the Lions 17-14, but the Lions kicker missed three field goals and so could have won the game pretty easily. Their defence and special teams are both ranked third by DVOA, but their offence is a sputtering twenty-seventh and whilst Kyle Orton is a stable starter, especially when compared to EJ Manuel, I don’t see them improving dramatically. I have picked the Patriots wrong for two weeks now, so Bills fans could well be happy that I’m picking against them this week, but I see a more familiar shape to the AFC East by the end of this weekend.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots

Panthers @ Bengals (-7.5)

I am not panicking, but I am worried. The Bengals team is still good, and has a lot of talent, but I’m still waiting for the light to go on in prime time. This was another game where Andy Dalton failed to answer the questions that surround him in big games. The Bengals are clearly missing Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert in the passing game, and Hue Jackson’s commitment to the run doesn’t seem to have materialised. I think they’ll continue to be good and make the playoffs, but it really is a playoff win or bust for this team, and I this is the kind of game that makes you wonder if this is the year they turn it round. I am not one of those who questions Marvin Lewis’ record, if you look at the changes he has made over the years to the Bengals, I think there has been tremendous process. I understand that he hasn’t won a playoff game, but the Bengals were a national joke and he has turned that round into a good drafting, very talented team. You don’t throw that away, but I don’t understand why good head coaches, who are not great game managers, don’t just hire someone to this for them. Andy Reid is another really good coach, who could benefit from someone tracking time management etc on game day.

The Panthers proved me wrong last week, beating a Bears team that are up and down and lead their conference with a 3-2 record. Cam Newton is really developing as a quarterback, throwing two touchdowns to tight end Greg Olsen and he is gaining trust in rookie receiver Kelvin Benjamin. The defence is still a worry, ranking twenty-seventh by DVOA and giving up 347 yards last week, but they did get four turnovers. I expect the Bengals to bounce back at home where they have been very good for several seasons now, but I believe that the Panthers will give a good account of themselves so I am wary of this points total.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers

Steelers @ Browns (-1.5)

I’m really not sure where to go with this line. The Steelers continued their win, loss, win, loss pattern by beating the Panthers last week, but they’ve not been convincing for a lot of the year. Not only did the Browns win on the road against the woeful Titans, but they managed the largest ever comeback by a road team, overturning a twenty-five point deficit in the process. I think this game could go either way, but whilst I think the Browns are a tough team to play, I’m not sure that they should be favourites in this game. Neither of these teams’ defences are ranked as well as I would have expected going into the season, but I have more faith in the Steelers’ offence than I do in the Browns’ offence, despite the Browns ranking five places higher at fourth by DVOA, so I’m going with the Steelers.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers

Broncos @ Jets (+8.5)

The Jets are struggling due to a lack of talent. On offence things are going from bad to worse and it looks like I was wrong to say there were signs of improvement in Geno Smith, particularly with stories of him missing meetings and visiting the cinema before a game. In fairness, Michael Vick didn’t exactly light it up when he came into the game. That the Jets are a mess is not perhaps a surprise, but they are also ranked nineteenth on defence as the play of their secondary means that even Rex Ryan is struggling to sort them out. I think this is going to be one season too many for Ryan, who I’m not convinced about as a head coach, but who I would hire in a heart beat as a defensive coordinator, particularly if you have the personnel in place for his 3-4 scheme.

There is not much to say about the Broncos for the opposite reason. They are very good, it’s no surprise that Peyton Manning is playing well, and their defence is ranked second by DVOA, whilst they team overall stands top of both the DVOA and DAVE rankings. It was only in the fourth quarter, when injuries caught up with the Cardinals, that they really pulled away from the visiting team, so I don’t feel bad about picking against the Broncos last week, but I can’t see the Jets doing anything similar in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos

Lions @ Vikings (+1.5)

This is a big game for the Lions if they want to remain in contention in the NFC North. They could have won the game last week despite Calvin Johnson being hobbled, having left nine points on the field through missed field goals. The offence is struggling and I don’t see that changing with Calvin Johnsons being listed as doubtful. However their defence is ranked first by DVOA and this it was this side of the ball that helped them beat the Packers in week 3. They have the Vikings, Saints, and Falcons coming up before a bye, so now looks to be not a bad time to rest Johnson and look to push on later in the season. I think they should be able to compete in this stretch, but it will be a test.

I’m not going to over react to the Vikings’ blow out loss on Thursday night, we only have to look at what the Buccaneers did the week after their horrible loss to the Falcons to see that this does not have to define your season, but I am worried. You knew going into that game that the offence was going to struggle with Christian Ponder starting, but in fairness there were more problems than just him. The o-line didn’t look to be getting much push in the rushing game or giving much protection in pass sets, and even when Asiata had a good run, he fumbled the ball. I’m not sure if Teddy Bridgewater will be back this week as he is still listed as questionable, so I’m not sure if the offence will turn around. The defence got gouged for various plays, but also got a lot of three and outs against the Packers offence and looked good in patches. The Vikings are currently ranked twenty-ninth overall by DVOA, but the blow out will be affecting that ranking and I think they are a little better than that. However, I don’t think that will be enough for them to win this game against the Lions.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions

Packers @ Dolphins (+3.5)

The Packers are looking more like themselves over the last two weeks, especially on offence, where Rodgers has thrown for a combined 458 yards, 7 touchdowns and no interceptions. The o-line seems to be holding up better, and Eddie Lacy is looking more like the running back he was expected to be before the start of the season. The defence also looked good last week with six sacks, and a slimmed down Julius Peppers looking good as he ran an interception back 49 yards for a touchdown. As with the Vikings, I wouldn’t read too much into the lopsided nature of the Thursday night game results as we’ve had a lot of these so far this season, but the Packers now sit third overall in DVOA, and whilst I think the defence may fall back from its current ranking of twelfth, I think the Packers are heading in the right direction.

The Dolphins are coming off a bye, having spectacularly taught me a lesson about falling for a team that sounded good in interviews. I still don’t like the way Joe Philbin dealt with his quarterback situation, but Tannehill responded with a good game in Wembley as they solidly beat the Raiders. However, I’m not going to get carried away with this win due to who they were playing. They are good on defence, but the Packers are now looking more like the team we were expecting them to be, and there are still questions around the Dolphins’ offence that makes me think they are losing this one despite being at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers

Jaguars @ Titans (-6.5)

For me this is a fairly straight forward pick. I suppose you could say that it was good that the Titans built a 25 point lead, but it was a horrible loss to the Browns, and now Jake Locker is questionable with a thumb injury. I do not like this team and I actually think that they might lose to the Jaguars, but even if they do win, I don’t see them doing so by seven or more points when the Steelers only beat the Jaguars by eight. The Jaguars don’t exactly inspire confidence, but I don’t see them losing every game and I think they will keep this game close.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars

Ravens @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

I hate this line! The Buccaneers have played solidly since their blow out loss to the Faclons in Week three, and look they have something going with Mike Glennon at quarterback, whilst the defence has also being playing better. They beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh and lost to the Saints in overtime, but they are still thirty-first overall by DVOA so I’m not that taken with them.

The problem for me is that the Ravens have looked good for a lot of the season, particularly after shaking off a week one loss against the Bengals, but they don’t seem to be travelling that well. They only beat the Browns by two points in Cleveland and lost against the Colts last week. However, there is a chasm between them in the DVOA rankings and I think that facing Mike Glennon is very different to facing Andrew Luck, so I will take the Ravens to bounce back with a win, hopefully covering the points whilst they are at it.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens

Chargers @ Raiders (+7.5)

The Chargers continue to look good, but the injuries are mounting up for them. This might make me pause over a number this large, but not against the Raiders. Right now Philip Rivers is just playing too well and the Raiders have been rotten. I don’t know why I fell for them in the London game, given that one of my survivor strategies has been picking teams playing the Raiders. I don’t what affect the firing of Dennis Allen will have, but there are also talent issue for this team and until I see something from the Raiders, I’m not backing them, even when they are getting this many points.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers

Bears @ Falcons (-3.5)

This is another line I don’t like. The Falcons are still riding high in the DVOA rankings, but that is mainly because of their game against the Buccaneers. They will be better at home as they always are, but their o-line is a mess and the defence is not looking good. The Bears need this win to stay in contention, and I think they will get it, but I am worried. They’ve not looked good over the last couple of weeks, and Jay Cutler needs to protect the ball more, but they should have too much for the Falcons

Gee’s Pick:      Bears

Cowboys @ Seahawks (-7.5)

The Cowboys continued their good start to the season with a close win over the Texans last week, but I’m not so sure of them this week. They needed overtime to get the win, and whilst their young o-line has been playing excellently, visiting Seattle is really going to test them. They made some spectacular plays on offence, which I don’t think they will get against the Seahawks, and their defence will face a tougher test this week.

I think that the Seahawks will win this game. Poor Percy Harvin had three touchdowns called back by penalties against Washington, with James Carpenter giving away twenty-five yards of penalties on two of these plays. I am worried about the points as the Cowboys have been good and the smart play would be to take them, but with that home field advantage I’m thinking that the Cowboys are in for a long day.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks

Washington @ Cardinals (-3.5)

The Cardinals were keeping it close until the fourth quarter last week, until injuries finally did for them as they lost Calais Campbell and Patrick Peterson on defence, as well as losing Drew Stanton to injury, forcing them to play the Logan Thomas at quarterback. They have to keep Thomas on the roster as someone would claim him from the practice squad, but he’s not ready to play yet and this is a real problem for them with Carson Palmer’s injury. The history of nerve issues is not inspiring; as anyone who has followed NBA great Steve Nash’s recent seasons will know, but with Drew Stanton on concussion protocol, quarterback could be a real problem for the Cardinals.

Washington has not been impressive this season, but they have a chance this week. I’m not convinced they can win; their offence and defence don’t rank too badly but their special teams are thirty-first by DVOA. They are another team that I really didn’t like in Thursday night game, but they didn’t do much last week to convince me either so whilst I am going back and forth on this one, I don’t think I can back them this week despite the Cardinals issues.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals

Giants @ Eagles (-2.5)

The Eagles found a way last week against the Rams, leading the game convincingly until the fourth quarter when they let the Rams back a little. They got another touchdown from a blocked punt, and lead the league in special teams DVOA, but their offence is still struggling compared to where they were expected to be. They are not much healthier on the o-line and LeSean McCoy has not looked like the back he was last year. The defence seems to be holding up better than expected, but overall this team’s 4-1 record includes two three point wins that could have easily gone the other way, and you can only score so many special teams touchdowns.

The Giants on the other hand, have been steadily improving, with Eli Manning now looking really good in the new offence. They have now won three straight games and are actually ranked higher in overall DVOA than the Eagles, as well as ub offensive and defensive DVOA. I fancy them to give the Eagles a hard time this week and I like that I’m getting points as well. This could well be the week there Eagles, Giants, and Cowboys all end up with 4-2 records.

Gee’s Pick:      Giants

49ers @ Rams (+3.5)

There are so many stories swirling round the 49ers, and in particular Jim Harbaugh, at the moment, but they have still won the last two games. Their defence is playing well, whilst their offence is stuttering a bit. You would like to see more development from Colin Kaepernick, but they are getting it done and I wouldn’t bet against them this week.

The Rams are thirtieth in defensive DVOA and twenty-third in offence, but whilst Austin Davis did throw for 375 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions, the Rams were never really in the game against the Eagles, and only a pair of touchdowns in the fourth quarter kept the score respectable. I don’t think that they will have such success on offence this week and I think they lose another one.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers.

So a little delayed, I present this week’s picks:

One of the things I love about the NFL is also one of the things that make the process of picking games so difficult. On any given Sunday you’ll get the unexpected and there are very few nailed on wins or losses. Last week I was five and eight, but I only dropped another game behind Dan so hopefully I can still turn this round. The reason we had such a tough week is that who could have predicted that the 0-3 Buccaneers would beat the Steelers; or that the struggling Vikings would batter the Falcons 41-28; or that the Eagles would block a punt to score a touchdown, return an interception for a touchdown, and return another punt for a touchdown, yet still lose to the 49ers. There are picks I feel good about that lost and some that I’d love to have back, but I think we’re beginning to get a better idea about some of these teams so let’s take look at the upcoming week.

Gee:     Week 4   5-8                Overall   26-35
Dan:     Week 4   6-7                Overall   28-33

Vikings @ Packers (-9.5)

The quality of the Thursday night games has been somewhat up and down again this season, and I’d love to see a close game at some point. I’m looking forward to this game a lot, the Vikings had a really good win on Sunday against the Falcons with Teddy Bridgewater in his first game taking care of the ball and throwing for 317 yards, whilst their defence held the Falcons enough to win. The worrying this is that Teddy Bridgewater sprained is ankle and is questionable for this game. It appears that the Aaron Rodgers was right when he told Packer’s fans to relax, as he threw for 302 yards and four touchdowns, shredding the Bears defence to win their game. I’m struggling a little with this game, as I don’t think that the Vikings will allow over 200 yards of rushing but they have been inconsistent and Teddy Bridgewater is a doubt I think that the Packers will win this game, although there are still questions about them, and this is me changing my mind, but the Thursday night games have been very one sided so I think the Packers will cover the points as well.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Dan’s Comments: – his one is pretty difficult because of the spread, but I think I’ll go for Packers on this one.

Falcons @ Giants (-3.5)

This is an interesting pairing of teams. The Falcons have been Jekyll & Hyde all season, although the Saints and Bucs are looking bad so I’m not sure how much faith to put in them at all. I’ve seen them a couple of times, the Bengals defence stifled them pretty well in that loss and the Bucs didn’t offer much resistance when the Falcons beat them. Their offence looks good when it is firing but they literally ran out of linemen on Sunday and had to use a tight end as a right tackle for an extended stretch., They lack a pass rush and depth in the middle of the defence although their corners are good. Overall, I’m not convinced by them against competent opposition and their o-line is going to remain a mess. The Giants have been improving all season, and whilst I need to be careful as Thursday night games have flattered several teams this year, I think that Manning is getting to grips with the new offence and looked really good against Washington. Now granted, that was against a defence that got very little pressure and looked horrible in coverage, but I don’t see the Falcons doing much better overall despite their corners. I like the Giants to win this game, and strongly enough that I’ll take whilst giving points..

Gee’s Pick:      Giants
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Dan’s Comments: – Giants absolutely took Washington apart in week 4, while the Falcons were taken apart by the Vikings, so I’m going to go with Giants in this game.

Bills @ Lions (-7.5)

It has taken me for attempts to start writing this game up, which is because I am so confused by the Bills. They have a great defensive line, have played well in spurts, but EJ Manuel has been so inconsistent that they’ve dropped him. I think this is because of how open the division is this year, but I don’t think the Bills are going in the right direction. However, the Lions appear to be as they’ve been more disciplined and are good on defence. They racked up a solid win against the Jets despite Calvin Johnson being quiet and I see them beating the Bills fairly easily. I could be wrong as I’ve only picked one Bills game correctly all season, but I’m going for the Lions.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lionss

Dan’s Comments: – Got to be Lions. While they didn’t run away with the Jets, I still think they’ve got enough to go over the Bills.

Bears @ Panthers (-2.5)

The Carolina Panthers lost heavily to a good Ravens team, but the worrying thing for them is that the defence that initially seemed so good is currently ranked twenty-eighth by DVOA and is beginning to show cracks as they are missing some pieces. The o-line is starting to look how many feared it would going into the season, and. I worry about this team going forward. The Bears are a flawed team, that to an extent are going to live and die on the difference between good Cutler and bad Cutler, because he has one of those arms that makes him think he can make every throw. In some games this will work and in others he’ll throw interceptions, but the Bears defence is not one that follows in the traditions of the club. In fairness, they held up pretty well in the run, which was the area of concern for many, but they were shredded by Aaron Rodgers. I’m wary of reading too much into team rankings, as match ups do matter, but there are thirteen places between them by DVOA and I think the Bears will recover in this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Bears

Dan’s Comments: – Two teams who struggled last week, but let’s go with the Bears.

Browns @ Titans (-2.5)

Oh dear, the Titans gave up nearly 500 yards to the Colts last week, and after winning against the Chiefs in week 1, they have lost three straight. They are uncertain at quarterback, and so whilst they have some good looking receivers, they have no one to throw them the ball, yet somehow they’re giving points to the Browns. Mike Pettine has the Browns playing pretty well, their defence is not ranked as highly as I thought they would be, but their offence is doing surprisingly well despite missing some parts and I think they will have too much for the Titans as they come off their bye week.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Browns

Dan’s Comments: – Can’t see any further than the Browns against Titans this week

Texans @ Cowboys (-4.5)

This is a really hard game for me to pick. The Cowboys have surprised everyone by playing okay on defence, and running the ball behind a good young offensive line. There is a worry about DeMaroc Murray as although he’s been superb in four games, already racking up 534 yards, he has never played sixteen games, but right now they are doing well. I haven’t got a full read on the Texans. They’re not the most amazing team on either side of the ball, but they find a way to win and they have the best defensive player in the league. I’ll try not to get boring on the subject of JJ Watt, but last week he returned an interception for a touchdown, and did not look like a 3-4 defensive end whilst doing it, as well as racking up nine quarterback hits. I think this could be a close game, but I’m taking the points and going with the Texans.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Dan’s Comments: – Two in form teams. I can see the Texans D controlling the Cowboys O, so I’ll go for the Texans.

Ravens @ Colts (-3.5)

The Colts have got themselves back on track with two straight wins, but they were against the Jaguars and Titans. When people are making comments about even Trent Richardson scores against the Titans, it is bad for the Titans, but it is also not great if you’re the team that traded a first round pick to get him. I am not convinced by this team, although Andrew Luck is excellent. However, they are facing a Ravens team that steamrollered the Panthers and have looked good for most of the season. The defence is playing well, and the offence is really coming along. I don’t expect Steve Smith Snr, who has been good all year. to be quite as fired up as he was when facing his old team, but I fancy the Ravens to at least cover in this game, if not win.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Dan’s Comments: – I think the Ravens are the obvious choice here, but I just can’t help but thinking the Colts will take it for some reason!

Rams @ Eagles (-7.5)

The Eagles have problems with their offensive line, which they have been working round for most of the season, but it was too much to overcome on Sunday. The 49ers defence did an amazing job on the Eagles offence, and it was only their special teams play and a pick six that kept the Eagles in the game. I wrote last week that I thought they could lose, but they wouldn’t by more than six and I was right. This is a game that I can see them winning, but I’m not sure that they will by eight or more. There is still a lot of talent on the Rams defence that hasn’t clicked yet this season, but in Austin Davis they found a quarterback that moved the ball against the Cowboys, and the Eagles are not good on defence. I think they might do okay in this game coming off a bye, although I might be wary of large lines after last week, but I’m backing the Rams to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Dan’s Comments: – I think the Eagles will have this one pretty easy this week. I’ve not liked much of what I’ve seen of St. Louis so far this year.

Buccaneers @ Saints (-10.5)

Now this is a line to worry about. I’m really pleased that the Bucs proved me wrong, and having said that I couldn’t see where they were going to win a game, they promptly beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh. They got Gerald McCoy and Michael Johnson back on the defensive line, which did much better than against the Falcons, and Mike Glennon gave them better play than McCown at quarterback. The reason that this line bothers me is that both teams are 1-3 and whilst I don’t exactly trust the Bucs, I don’t see why the Saints are giving 10.5 points, even if they are back home. The Saints have not been clicking on offence, and might really be regretting trading Darren Sproles to the Eagles. Their defence, that improved so much last year, seems to be returning to average, with Rob Ryan blitzing a lot and not winning on his gambles. This Saints have struggled this season and I hate the points spread even if they do beat the Bucs, which I’m not convinced they will.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Dan’s Comments: – Another one I’ve struggled with when picking, as I think given the spread it could go either way.

Steelers @ Jaguars (+6.5)

I feel sorry for the Jaguars this week. They’ve played well in stretches, but haven’t been able to put together a whole game, although it does look like there are promising signs that they’ve found their quarterback. The worrying thing for me is that they are ranked thirty-first in defence by DVOA and that is Gus Bradley’s side of the ball. It might be that they can turn it round as the season goes on, and let’s hope they do for the London game, but I’ll believe it when I see it. The Steelers are another Jekyll & Hyde team, alternating wins and losses. They have one the best receivers playing at the moment in Antonio Brown, and have been looking pretty good on offence, but their defence is struggling. It’s looked a bit old at time and they were missing players last week against the Bucs. I really liked what I saw of Ryan Shazier so they’ll be hoping to get him back soon. I think that this is an experienced team who are going to be furious after last week’s result and in the Jaguars, they are playing against a good team to help them get back on track. I might be wrong, but I think this is another big loss for the Jaguars.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Dan’s Comments: – Steelers to bounce back this week. Sorry Jags fans – this is becoming a long season for you!

Caridnals @ Broncos (-7.5)

This is a cracking game, with both teams playing well and coming off a bye. The Cardinals have been excellent on defence, but Carson Palmer is still having problems with a nerve issue in his shoulder and so I’m worried about them on offence. The Broncos are not playing as well as last year on offence, but they don’t need to with the bolstering of their defence during the offseason, and they may well be a better overall team as a result. I think this game is almost impossible to call, I think it will be close but I could see either side winning handily. This pick is coming down to points, and whilst the Broncos are at home, and traditionally have a good home field advantage due to the altitude, I’m wary of the 7.5 number.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Dan’s Comments: – Arizona to continue their winning streak after their Bye last Sunday.

Chiefs @ 49ers (-7.5)

There are times when you should follow your convictions, and my first instinct was to pick the Chiefs last week. I was backing the Brady, Belichik combination on Monday night, which I said was a bad reason to pick a game and so it proved to be. The Chiefs played well on defence, moved the ball on a Patriots defence, which was ranked highly and beat the Patriots convincingly enough that some are question if it is the end of an era in New England. I’ll save talk of that for when I write about the Patriots, but clearly the Chiefs are heading in the right direction. The 49ers did it with defence last week against the Eagles. There still seem to be some issues with their offence, but they did well to overcome their special teams miscues and get a much needed win. I’m really not sure how this one is going, so I am again running away from giving this many points in a game I don’t have a strong opinion on.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Dan’s Comments: – It’s got to be the Chiefs after their fantastic result on this week’s MNF.

Jets @ Chargers (-7.5)

The Jets are currently ranked seventeenth on defence by DVOA, which when you consider their secondary is possibly not that bad, but if your identity as a team is one of defence then it is a problem. There are signs that Geno Smith is making progress, but not fast enough, and there were ugly scenes when the Jets fans starting chanting for Michael Vick. They have only one win and I don’t seem them getting a second this week. I’m not sure if there is a quarterback playing better than Phil Rivers at the moment, who is doing it without a good running game and a defence that is holding its own. I’m a little bit worried about the points, but in this game I’m prepared to give them as the Chargers are a team that I’m 3-1 with across the season.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Dan’s Comments: – The Chargers are on fire at the minute, and the Jets aren’t making things easy for themselves. San Diego win.

Bengals @ Patriots (-2.5)

I wrote about Patriots line last week and I only backed them as they were on Monday night football. We’ve had too many games now for this to be an aberration, but whilst I still have nagging doubts about picking against them on a nationally televised game I can’t back them in this one. The line might improve, but it seems a mess at the moment, and the skill players can’t get open. The Bengals have looked pretty good on offence despite missing some parts, whilst the defence has looked great even with Burfit missing time with a concussion. I’m worried about jinxing this, but I think the Bengals will win without the aid of a thunderstorm this time.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Dan’s Comments: – The Patriots are one of the lowest scoring teams in the league this year, and the Bengals are scoring an average of 27 points a game without letting much past them. Easy

Seattle @ Washington (+7.5)

I wrote about how bad the Washington defence against the Giants last week, which actually worries me more than the wobble Kirk Cousins had forcing the issue as he tried to get them back in the game. I don’t think he will be as bad, but I don’t see him coping with the Seahawks defence, even if they don’t have the amazing Seattle crowd helping them. The Seahawks are fresh of a bye and are looking like there are going to go deep again this season, making this a fairly straight forward pick.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Dan’s Comments: – I think this one’s got to be the Seahawks. I don’t think Washington have it in them this week.

I feel pretty good about this weeks’ picks, but then I do most weeks. Sadly I’m only picking against Dan twice this week so I’m not sure I’ll be making much ground up on any time soon.

Last week I returned to respectability, going 8-8 despite missing out on two games by only half a point. Unfortunately, due to these two games and me underestimating the Bears, I’ve dropped a game behind Dan in our competition so I will have to redouble my efforts or he’s going to win the blog from me. You may notice some more stats from the Football Outsiders creeping in, although it will be another week until their DVOA stat starts including the adjustments for opponents, so I’ll be using their modified DAVE stat overall ranking as this includes adjustments for preseason/early season comparison, alongside their DVOA stats for offence, defence and special teams. As well as these advanced stats I’ll be using traditional stats, blind luck, observation, and reading the entrails of a ritually slaughtered Steelers fan.

Gee:     Week 3   8-8                Overall   21-27
Dan:     Week 3   9-7                Overall   22-26

Giants @ Washington (-3.5)

So the Thursday night game this week is between two teams that I picked wrong last week. The Giants beat the Texans pretty convincingly, with Eli having a very solid day gaining 234 yards from 21 completions out of 28 attempts, two touchdowns and no interceptions, a running game that gouged the Texans for 176 yards by Rashad Jennings, and the Texans giving the ball away four times. I don’t feel too bad about not seeing this turnaround coming for the Giants, but the Texans were on the road for a second straight week and I might have got carried away by how good JJ Watt is. However, although I had mentioned that Kirk Cousins looked more comfortable as a drop back passer than RG3, I hadn’t realised how much better their offence seemed to run. They only narrowly lost to the 3-0 Eagles, have the third ranked defence according to DVOA, and I think they are going to be too much to handle for an improving Giants team.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Dan’s Comments: – I’ve changed my mind twice on this one. Giants looked pretty good against the Texans (who themselves were strong in weeks 1 and 2), so I’m going to go with them.

Bills @ Texans (-2.5)

The Bills are ranked ninth overall by the DAVE stat; and are ninth on offence, eleventh on defence, and second on special teams by DVOA. They lost to a good Chargers team last week as I thought they would, but they have made themselves a real contender in the AFC East. I’m still worried about EJ Manuel and whilst they look like they might improve on last year’s 6-10 record, it is early and the Bills have a recent history that doesn’t inspire confidence. Not only did the Texans lose last week, but their defence gave up 193 yards on the ground and Fitzpatrick threw three interceptions. It has been a feature of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s career that every few games he has a stinker, and so I’m not expecting a repeat performance, but for me the Bills have the edge in this one. And I’m getting points!

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Dan’s Comments: – Back to winning ways this week for the Texans

Packers @ Bears (+0.5)

I’m not sure if Aaron Rodgers telling fans to relax will help or not, but I don’t think that he is particularly to blame here. The o-line hasn’t being playing great and as a result the offence is not firing on all cylinders, and whilst I don’t think they will necessarily stay ranked twenty-first as they currently are, for me this is where their problem lies. This is interesting as I expected the defence to be the issue, but at eighteenth by DVOA, the defence should be good enough for them to win if their offence was playing up to expectations, so it all depends on if they can turn things around on offence. This should be good news as the Bears defence was the worry in preseason, however they’ve been holding up surprising well so far. There are questions about their run defence, but I’m not sure that the Packers as currently constituted are the team to take advantage of this. I think this is going to be a close game but I fancy the Bears to win at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Dan’s Comments: – This always makes for a good game. Packers by a touchdown for me.

Lions @ Jets (+1.5)

This is the first game the Dan and I agree on. The Lions had a really good win against the Packers last week, are looking more disciplined and won with defence. It must be hard to lose Stephen Tulloch to the year with a torn ACL that he sustained celebrating a sack, but they are ranked second in defence by DVOA, and linebacker DeAndre Levy is really making a name for himself with his good play. The Jets are still playing well on defence and Geno Smith has improved from last year, but I have the feeling that the Lions are good and the Jets are not going to be good enough to win this one, even if they are at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Dan’s Comments: – Easiest pick this week!

Titans @ Colts (-7.5)

The Titans did not have a good day against the Bengals, and the early talk of Jake Locker improving has cooled after he threw two interceptions last week. I don’t know if they have anything they can hang their hat on as an identity, Jake Locker is on the injury list, and so I don’t think they’re going to be winning this one. The Colts came out last week and did what they needed to in beating a poor Jaguars team. We expect Andrew Luck to be good, but even Trent Richardson showed something last week and having finally got their first win of the season, I think they will beat the Titans at home. I’m a little worried about the points, but I think they will cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Dan’s Comments: – This will be a close one, so I’m taking the points.

Dolphins @ Raiders (+4.5)

This is the first of the international series games being played at Wembley this year. The Dolphins beat a Patriots team that look like they’re struggling in week 1 and then have lost against the Bills and Chiefs. Their coach has not exactly been backing their young quarterback, and whilst the Raiders are already over in the U.K., the Dolphins are not flying in until Friday. I don’t like this strategy for travelling and I hate the approach to the quarterback question. Tannehill has only had three games with a new coordinator and it’s much too early to be making a judgement about him. I also don’t like that there are reports that the players on defence hated the game plan against the Chiefs. This does not strike me as a well run football team. The Raiders are 0-3, lost against the misfiring Patriots, and so they are rightly underdogs against the Dolphins on a neutral site. But their performance improved last week, and I just have a feeling about them. I could regret this, although I don’t want Dan to watch his team lose live at the stadium, but I think the game is going the wrong way for him in London this weekend.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Dan’s Comments: – A good day in London for the Dolphins (I wonder how much of it I’ll remember on Monday morning!)

Buccaneers @ Steelers (-7.5)

The Buccaneers were awful last week. You hope they have a chip on their shoulder after being humiliated on nationally televised game last week, but there is a lot of work for Lovie Smith to do. I thought that Mike Glennon looked better than the injured Josh McCown last week, and so that might help, but I’m not sure when they might pick up a win. The odds say they don’t lose every game this year, but looking down their schedule I don’t fancy them against anyone. The Steelers got an impressive win against the Panthers last week, and Le’Veon Bell is looking really good. The banged up linebacker group worries me and I still think they might be a step behind the Ravens in the division, but the AFC North once again looks to be one of the tougher divisions in the NFL and I’m happy that the Steelers will beat the spread in this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Dan’s Comments: – Even with the spread, I can’t see anything other than a Steelers win this week.

Panthers @ Ravens (-3.5)

Steve Smith has been heavily featured by the Ravens and is playing well as they welcome his former team to M&T Bank stadium. The Ravens have done pretty well on the field this year, but losing Dennis Pitta to a second dislocated hip could cause them problems. However, Owen Daniels looked good when I saw him and knows the system and the defence is good so I think the Ravens will continue to do okay. The Panthers really got gouged in the running game last week against the Steelers, and whilst they look much better than some of us were expecting, they just lost to a team that got beaten by Ravens pretty handily. I’m not worried about the Browns running the Ravens close last week as I think they’re going to do that to a lot of teams and I’m taking the Ravens despite the points.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Dan’s Comments: – Another close one, but I think there’ll be more than a field goal in it.

Jaguars @ Chargers (-13.5)

The Jaguars are bad, and it’s going to take double digit points for me to pick them again this year unless they show me something. I still stand by my week one pick, but we know more now and I don’t see the Chargers having a problem continuing their good start to the season this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Dan’s Comments: – The Jags (despite being 0-3 so far!) are a team on the up. They’ll still lose, but not by 2 touchdowns.

Falcons @ Vikings (+3.5)

The Teddy Bridgewater era starts in Minnesota and I think in the long term he is going to be good, but losing Peterson has hurt this offence and the line doesn’t seem to be playing that well either. I think the defence will be okay under Zimmer, but it’s going to be a long season. We shouldn’t overreact to the Falcons performance against the Bucs last week, but they are good on offence, and I think they will have too much for the Vikings, even away from home.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Dan’s Comments: – OK, I changed my mind – this is the easiest pick.

Eagles @ 49ers (-5.5)

I think the 49ers are in the same place as I did last week, their depth is being tested and whilst I don’t think they’re bad, the defence is really struggling (twenty-first in DVOA) and indiscipline is costing them too. I wasn’t surprised at their loss last week to a Cardinals team that I think are going to keep contending this season (as ever, health permitting) and I am a little surprised that they’re getting so many points, even at home. The Eagles are 3-0 but I did love the line on the Grantland NLF Podcast, “…Sports sciene 0, regression to the mean 1,” when talking about their injuries. I think they’re the better team in this game, and whilst it’s definitely possible that this game could be one they lose, I don’t see them getting beaten by six points.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Dan’s Comments: – Eagles to continue their run this week. Philly win.

Saints @ Cowboys (+3.5)

The Cowboys got a win last week, but before we get ahead of ourselves, it was against the Rams who are really struggling. The running game helped them counter the back issues that still seem to be affecting Tony Romo’s game, and they certainly the offensive line to do it. Their defence did enough, but I don’t know if it will be able to cope in this game. The Saints were meant to be challengers for the Super Bowl this year, but their defence isn’t living up to last year’s improvement and their offence has been surprisingly out of sync, or at least that is the narrative I’ve heard, but by DVOA they are ranked number one. They are moving from one dome to another, so I don’t think there woes on the road will be as pronounced as some expect and I see them following up their first win with a second against the Cowboys.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Dan’s Comments: – I picked Cowboys the last 2 weeks, but I think they’ll struggle this week.

Patriots @ Chiefs (+3.5)

The Patriots seem to have undergone a switch in identity with their defence ranked number one by DVOA and an offence that is struggling. Their offensive line is not giving Tom Brady the protection he is used to, and there are signs that father time is catching up with one of the all time greats. In fairness, if you look at the weapons he has to work with now, compared to a few years ago, this is not perhaps surprising but it also something that isn’t going to change any time soon. I liked the Chiefs going into the season, and whilst I thought they would regress this year, I didn’t expect this. They beat the Dolphins last week, but I think the Patriots and the Dolphins are heading in different directions and I can’t see the Patriots losing on Monday night football. That’s a really bad reason to pick a team but I’m going with it for now.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Dan’s Comments: –  While they beat the Dolphins this week, I wouldn’t say they were particularly good, and I can’t see them being too close to the Patriots this week.

Last week I went a horrible four and twelve so I’m going to do a quick check evaluation of where I went wrong so hopefully I can do better as Dan and I are now tied up at thirteen and nineteen across the season.

The first place I can start is that I probably have to trust my first instincts more, even if some of them were a based on gut instincts. I send the lines to Dan on a Tuesday night and make initial picks, and then refine them as I write the blog. I initially picked the Ravens, Patriots, Jets, and Bears; then changed my mind as I wrote the games up and lost on all of them. That’s throwing away a pretty respectable eight and eight week, plus I was always worried about the amount of points the Broncos were giving.

What I am taking away from the first two weeks is that the Jaguars are not continuing with the steps they made last season, and I yet I still want to pick them this week. The Buccaneers are injured and bad, the Panthers are much better than I thought they were going to be and I think the Saints may just be good rather that top echelon. Also the Bills have won both of their games, but I don’t trust Manuel so I just don’t know what to do with them. So let’s take a look at this week’s games, and I really don’t like the lines in a lot of them.

Oh yes, and this week I’ll remember to actually state our records!

Gee:      Week 2   4-12                     Overall   13-19
Dan:      Week 2   5-11                     Overall   13-19

Buccaneers @ Falcons (-6.5)

So the game that I get to write up in detail this week is the Buccaneers who I appear to have overestimated and a Falcons team who had a good win week one against the Saints and then got beat pretty handily by the Bengals. I think this is going to be a win for the Falcons, who looked pretty good to me in preseason, but now we’re in live games it’s not so obvious. They’re at home, where they’ve historically been strong, I’m not sure about the points they’re giving but I’m going to take them anyway. I’ll be interested to see the Buccaneers as I really thought Lovie Smith was going to have more of an impact, but it already looks like it is going to be another long season for the Bucs.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Chargers @ Bills (-2.5)

I do not have a handle on the Bills, and according to my planned schedule I don’t get to see them until week 11 so given that they’re playing the Charges, I suspect I’ll be taking a look this week. The Bills look to be running well, and Watkins is beginning to show his quality but EJ Manuel is still a question at quarterback, whilst on defence they’ve been pretty strong. The Chargers are one and one, but coming off a strong win against the Seahawks and went close against the Cardinals who are unbeaten this year. I think the Chargers are a playoff team this year, and although they benefitted from the heat against the Seahawks at home, I’m picking them to beat the Bills up in Buffalo. This does mean that I am picking against the Bills for a third week, and whilst I do believe in their results, I just think they’re going to fall short in this game. I think I’ve written that before.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Dan’s Comments: – Bills won well on Sunday, but having watched the game, I’d say that was more down to the Dolphins being poor, than the bills being especially good. Chargers on the other hand looked very good on Sunday so easy pick for me.

Titans @ Bengals (-6.5)

Who Dey! Right, now I’ve got that out of my system, the Bengals have got off to a good start in terms of winning both of their games with the defence looking very strong. I’m also impressed with the game planning that Hue Jackson has done to deal with his shifting team. Right now they’re coping with the injury bug that has really hit them, but how long that can continue I am not sure. However, maybe the early bye week is not such an issue if it means that the Bengals can get some bodies healthy. The Titans have beaten a struggling Chiefs team and then lost to a so-so Cowboys team. Jake Locker threw two interceptions last week and will have to look after the ball if they are to win. I don’t think this is likely, I’m not expecting a great season for the Titans and whilst I’m worried about the points, I backing the Bengals.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Ravens @ Browns (+1.5)

I’m impressed with both of these teams but for different reasons. The Browns have a pretty good defence, and having lost to him last season, I respect Brian Hoyer as a solid NFL starter. However, there has been so much dysfunction in the way this team has been managed and I think they are going to struggle to move the ball in this game. I was pretty impressed with the Ravens last week. You can go through the details in my recap of their game against the Steelers (see here), but I think their defence is going to be effective and their offence looked like it was coming together, so I expect a typical AFC North battle with the Ravens coming out on top.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Cowboys @ Rams (+0.5)

The Rams won out in a battle with another of the struggling teams of this season in the Bucs. There is so much talent on defence, but loosing Chris Long to IR designated to return is going to be painful and the offence is not firing at all. The Cowboys defence, much maligned in preseason, seems to be keeping them close enough to win and their offence did enough to win. If Romo can protect the ball then the Cowboys can be competitive. I don’t trust them in the long run but this week I am backing them to beat the Rams.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowborys

Dan’s Comments: – I got some stick for picking the Cowboys last week and as it turned out, they won! So I think I’ll stick with them this week. That being said, I’d pick almost anyone against the Rams this season!

Packers @ Lions (-1.5)

The Packers came back against the Jets and won as I expected them to, but as I thought they couldn’t cover the spread. The question remains the defence, and if it can keep them close enough for their offence to win. They did a job against the Jets, but the Lions offence is a different proposition. The Lions got beaten pretty comprehensively by the Panthers last week, and so I am not sure about them. I need to see them to get a feel for how the offence is rolling, but the Panthers have a good defence so I’m prepared to give them a little bit of credit going against the Packers this week. However, the secondary is a question and so it was a little bit strange for them to take a tight end rather than a defensive back in the first round of the draft. I fancy the Packers to win, the Lions seem to have a knack for shooting themselves in the foot, they had a golden chance to win the division last year and didn’t manage it, I fear another middling season for them.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Dan’s Comments: –

Colts @ Jaguars (+6.5)

Urgh. I really hate this line. I’ve been bitten by the Jaguars twice this season and I have re-evaluated my opinion on them. I’ll still be tempted by double digit lines, but until they prove something to me I have to stay away. That said, I’m still not terribly impressed by the Colts, but Andrew Luck is too good to bet against in a game like this. I’m tempted by the points, but I’ve been bitten too many times already this season.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Raiders @ Patriots (-14.5)

My only concern about this game is the spread. The Patriots looked like themselves again, but the real news is that despite the Raiders bringing in a number of free agents that were meant to bring them up to respectability, things are not going well. It is one thing to lose a close game to the Jets, but getting blown out by the Texans at home is very worrying. If the Texans can win by sixteen at the Raiders, I hope the Patriots can do something similar at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Dan’s Comments: -Pats will win this one quite easily, but not by more than two touchdowns, so I’ll pick Oakland this week.

Interlude for More Important Matters:

One of the next teams, the Vikings, seems to be suffering from the moral compass issues that a number of teams are showing right now. Having suspended Peterson over charges relating to disciplining one of his children with a tree branch for the game on Sunday, he was re-instated Monday before being suspended for the rest of the season after further discussion late Tuesday night in the States, not to mention reaction to his reinstatement. This, along with the Panthers playing Greg Hardy until the Ray Rice suspension despite a conviction for domestic violence awaiting an appeal, the 49ers still playing Ray McDonald despite him being under investigation in another domestic violence case, and whilst in the process of writing this blog Jonathan Dwyer also has been arrested for aggravated assault involved a woman and an 18-month-old child, just go to demonstrate how wrong the NFL has got it. There are issues of due process, but the league could certainly do more by enforcing a more consistent policy that took the decision out of the teams hands, but surely at some point the teams have to consider what a horrible message it sends to allow these players to continue to play in front of millions of viewers instead of being suspended until their cases have been dealt with, then applying appropriate punishments. It would help if Roger Goodell would come out of hiding and actually show some leadership, but that doesn’t seem likely at the moment. The smallest crumb of comfort is that at least the Arizona Cardinals deactivated Dwyer when the charges were brought. Still, it is a pretty tough time to be a fan of the NFL and I just hope that material change is in the works as things cannot continue like this.

Vikings @ Saints (-10.5)

The Vikings got beaten soundly with bad special teams play, an inability to stop the Patriots offence, an offence where Cassel gave the ball away too much, and Cordarrelle Patterson simply didn’t get enough touches. I hope they get this fixed and I have faith in Mike Zimmer, but he’s been dealt a tough hand in the last week with Peterson situation and the way it was handled by the team execs and the league. The Saints have had a pretty horrid start to the season, but they have been away from home for both games and this does make a difference to how they play. I think they will be better this game and I nearly second guessed myself with this pick and went with the Saints, but I’m worried about their defence and I can’t pick a team with two losses to win by eleven or more.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Texans @ Giants (+2.5)

The Giants looked bad and lost, despite Eli Manning playing better than he had. However there are still a lot of problems here and I think I they will lose a lot of games this season. The Texans have been pretty solid on offence, have managed to avoid beating themselves and have one of my favourite players. Apart from his usual tackles and sacks, JJ Watt also has a blocked extra point and a touchdown reception whilst playing as a tight end this season. I know they’re away from home, but I fancy them to continue their good run this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Dan’s Comments: – think Gee’s Man Crush JJ Watt will have another good week this week and lead the Texans to a good win.

Washington @ Eagles (-6.5)

Washington are better than I thought they were going to be, and whilst the Jaguars have added some gloss to their defensive stats, the defence has been solid so far. The offence did better this week, despite losing RG3 to a dislocated ankle that he picked up without contact. I’m not sure if we’re ever going to see the dynamic player of his rookie season again, I hope that he finds his way, but even athletically talented people don’t always have the type of body that holds up to the rigours of football. It does appear that Kirk Cousins is more comfortable in the offence as a drop back passer but it will take time to see if he can be a full time starter and sadly he’s going to get it. I’m on record as being all in on Chip Kelly and so far, they have dealt with setbacks and some rotation on their offensive line to win both of their games. Whilst I think that Washington are better than I previously gave them credit for, I like the Eagles for the win and I just hope they cover as well.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

49ers @ Cardinals(+2.5)

It is pretty impressive that the Cardinals were able to win without Carson Palmer last week, but I liked their defence in preseason and it seems to be holding up so far this season. There were already problems for the 49ers with injuries and suspensions, so they could ill afford for Kaepernick to throw three interceptions. I think that there’s too much talent on their roster for them to be bad, but right now their depth is getting sorely tested and I think this is one the games that’s going to get away from them.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Broncos @ Seahawks (-4.5)

A repeat of the Super Bowl in week three and a game that everyone can look forward to. The Seahawks may have lost last week, but it was in stifling heat and their offence was moving the ball, it’s just that the Chargers did an incredible job of sustaining long drives to keep them on the sideline. For the Broncos this season has been a case of job done so far. They have not shined like last year, but they are beating the teams in front of them. I think that if this game was being played in any other venue that it would be a really close game, but with the Seahawks playing at home after a loss I think they are going to look more like the team that dismantled a good Packers team. The Broncos have a better defence, but I don’t think they have enough for this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Dan’s Comments: – Replay of February’s Superbowl, but this time, the Broncos will take it.

Chiefs @ Dolphins (-4.5)

What do I do here? The Chiefs are sinking. Too many injuries and they have not looked good despite what I had seen previous. The problem is that the Dolphins have a good win against the Patriots and then lose to the Bills. I don’t know if the Bills are good, but I know that the questions surrounding Tannehill are genuine and I’m not sure how he’s going to go here. I feel fairly comfortable that the Dolphins are going to win, but that line is just high enough to make me think twice about it. However, in the end I’m going with my first instinct.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Dan’s Comments: -You’ll probably notice I’ve picked the Dolphins every week so far. What can I say – I’m a hopeful man!

Bonus Dan content: – I haven’t had a chance to watch the Dolphins @ Bills game so I asked Dan for his thoughts which I present here:

Watching the Dolphins this week was quite difficult to do, not least because we were so poor on the Offensive side of the ball. Ryan Tannehill looked quite panicky at times, and I really can’t blame him with the regularity of our offensive line collapses. That being said, you could argue that the Bills’ defensive unit is one of the best in the league at the minute, but having given our offensive line a complete overhaul in the off-season, I really would expect them to stand up much better than they did in Week 2.

Along with that, Tannehill was really struggling to move the ball through the air. This was especially evident during the first half when we failed to get into Bills territory (in fact, it wasn’t until nearly 3 minutes into the second half before we advanced past the 50). It was also Quarter 3 before he managed to make a completion to Brian Hartline, who was his go-to guy last year. All in all, it was a difficult game on the ground too. Having been the league’s top runner in Week One, Knowshon Moreno lasted no longer than a few minutes this week and looks like he may be out for at least a couple of games. Lamar Miller looked pretty banged up by the end of the game too. It seems to me as though unless Tannehill starts to really connect and form a good partnership with a couple of his receivers, it could be a difficult few weeks in moving the ball.

Defensively, we weren’t all that bad – I certainly don’t think their high-ish score was reflective of their performance. We weren’t helped by an extremely good kick-off return being run back for a touchdown in the third quarter. Honestly, I’m an offence guy (I used to be a Full Back) but I defy anyone to talk to Gee about American football for any period of time without getting excited about defence, and I’m actually quite impressed with how they’ve been over the first couple of games.

If we can get our O to match our D, we’ll be there or there abouts come the end of the sea

Steelers @ Panthers (-3.5)

I was wrong about the Panthers. Their re-tooled offensive line is working and their defence is holding up really well. The Steelers don’t look right to me and whilst I’m not saying that they will be bad, I don’t think they’re going to be good either. It’s always dangerous to discount them, but I think the Panthers continue their good start to the year.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Bears @ Jets (-2.5)

I have a strange amount of faith in Rex Ryan’s defence, even with the questions in the secondary and Geno Smith continues to develop as a quarterback. The Jets are 2-0 against the spread, ever if I didn’t pick them both weeks. The concern here is that they were facing a bad Raiders team in week 1 and had the points in the Packers. The Bears did well to win last week, but they are struggling in run defence, had gimpy receivers and are shuffling offensive lineman. This is another line that I’m really hesitant on so I’m sticking with my gut and picking the Jets to run on the Bears, find a way to get stops on defence and win the game. I’m not exactly confident on this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

Dan’s Comments: – Sorry Jets fans, I think it’s 0-3 for you! (Editor’s note, I will be impressed if this happens given that the Jets are currently 1-1, I don’t think they’re going to lose so badly to the Bears that the league are going to deduct a win)