We go into week eight with all three of us on fifty-one points in the picks competition so plenty to play for.

Gee:    Week 7   5-9               Overall   51-56
Dan:    Week 7   6-8               Overall   51-56

Dolphins @ Texans (-7.5)

This week’s Thursday night game is a curious one that pits the Miami Dolphins’ two game losing streak against the Houston Texans’ three game winning streak. This is a bad spot for a Dolphins team who are pretty beat up even before they are on the road on a Thursday night. Their offence and defence sits just above middle ranks by DVOA and Brock Osweiler’s numbers, whilst not bad in his second start at quarterback, were not good enough to compensate for a defence that let Lions’ Kerryon Johnson ran for one hundred and fifty-eight yards on only nineteen carries.

The Texans’ offence has been very up and down but their defence is top five in the league by DVOA and whilst their pass defence has not been good, they are eighth in points allowed per game. I see nothing in this game that persuades me from my usual maxim for Thursday night other than the size of this line, which the Texans have only exceeded once this season against the Jaguars and so that does make me look hard. I keep changing my mind on this as I’m really worried about the spot the Dolphins are in but in the end this is just too many points for me.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Week 8 Trivia

‘As week 7 closes we find ourselves in ties wherever we turn. The Pick ‘Em sees all 3 of us with 51 points but the Trivia Quiz also has both Gee and Dan level on 3 each.

This week’s question was how many stadia had grass pitches and while the responses did have some logic behind them, Gee managed to pick up a single point even though his 21 was high – the answer being 19 with 12 being synthetic.

Don’t worry it confused Joe Namath too, when asked if he preferred grass or ‘astro’ he said he’d never smoked astroturf.

Moving swiftly on this week’s question is: Who is the Head Coach with Most Career Wins? I’ll add a bonus for anyone able to get closest to the exact number.

Keep moving those chains.’

So I had a Thursday night where I pretty much couldn’t have been further from right so let’s hope that form doesn’t spill into today’s picks! Firstly, however, can I pick up any more points in the trivia competition:

‘How many of the 31 NFL stadiums have Grass playing surfaces? I’ll give a score of  2 points for an exact hit or a consolation 1 if you are within 3 of the actual figure.’

So I’ve been through a list of teams and assigned those that I think play on grass but looking at the number I think I’m wrong. I’ll go for it anyway, so twenty-one.

‘We’re back to guessing again. Question for me is do I think more or less than half have turf… I think it’s close. I’ll say 15 have Grass.’

Titans @ Chargers (-6.5)

These are two teams in very different places and I have a lot more faith in the Chargers given they have only lost to very good teams for quite a while now. I’m hesitant because of the size of the line but given the frequency with which London games seem to be one sided I’m going to pick them to cover this line against a Titans team who gave up eleven sacks last week.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:       Chargers

Bills @ Colts (-6.5)

I think the Indianapolis Colts are a better team than their 1-5 record indicates and having played four games on the road so far this season t this looks to be as good a chance as they’ve had to get a home win. The Buffalo Bills defence actually ranks third by DVOA but after Josh Allen picked up an elbow injury they’re starting Derek Anderson who has only been on the roster for a little over a week. This could bite me but there is a big difference between these two teams’ overall DVOA percentage and I’m backing Andrew Luck and his team to cover, even if I don’t like laying this number of points.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:       Colts

Patriots @ Bears (+3.5)

So I am very curious about this game as the New England Patriots will be riding high after a big win against the Chiefs on Sunday night football last week, whereas the Bears are coming off a disappointing loss to the Dolphins in the heat of Miami. Not only did the Bears lose, but Khalil Mack picked up an ankle injury although is expected to play. It feels strange to me that the Bears are actually ranked higher than the Patriots by DVOA, particularly as there’s a fairly large difference in DVOA percentage between them, but it’s not a figure I trust. The Bears had such a huge win over the Buccaneers I suspect it is skewing the figures and there is no way you can trust Mitch Trubisky even if Matt Nagy is at least scheming him a way to have a chance of success. I like the Patriots to win this game but in a matchup of the seventh ranked offence versus the number one defence by DVOA I’m going to grab this number of points at home for the cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:       Patriots

Browns @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were the first team to fire a co-ordinator when Mike Smith was let go after their loss to the Falcons last week. Yes, the defence has been a big problem but their offence has thrown for a lot of yards and scored points but more often not has not been able to overcome their porous defence. This week a welcome a Cleveland Browns team who had their first bad loss of the season last week, but who still have a top ten defence even if the offence is struggling. I don’t know how Baker Mayfield will look given the ankle injury he picked up last week but this could be a tough spot for them on the road but also represents an opportunity to get right. The extra half point worries me as I don’t really trust either team so I’m going to grab the points and hope.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:       Buccaneers

Lions @ Dolphins (+0.5)

The Miami Dolphins remain in contention for a playoff spot thanks in large part to an unbeaten home record, aided by heat and humidity that has sapped the strength of their opponents. Last week they beat an improved Bears team and now they welcome an up and down Detroit Lions who have two quality wins, including the Packers last week. The emergence of Kenny Golladay at receiver and rookie running back Kerryon Johnson has caught the eye but only led to a DVOA ranking of twentieth. In fact, there is a huge difference in overall DVOA percentage between these two teams that’s leading me to join Dan in backing the Dolphins this week, even if Brock Osweiler likely being the quarterback again doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Dolphins

Vikings @ Jets (+3.5)

Things have picked up for the Minnesota Vikings in the last couple of weeks as they managed to beat the Eagles and Cardinals but their vaunted defence just isn’t the same this season and whilst Kirk Cousins has generated a lot offence, he has also fumbled a number of times and thrown three interceptions to go with his twelve touchdowns. This week they travel to face the New York Jets who are actually ranked five placed ahead of the Vikings by overall DVOA as well as having the same number of wins. Sam Darnold may have looked like a rookie quarterback but he’s looked like a good one, although his favourite receiver Quincy Enunwa is going to be missing for a couple of weeks with an ankle sprain. This is quite a lot of points for the Jets at home and with the extra half point I’m strongly tempted to pick them but I can’t quite bring myself to do it. I could regret this but I’m nervously backing the always competitive Vikings.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:       Vikings

Panthers @ Eagles (-4.5)

After a straight forward road win on Thursday night, the Philadelphia Eagles return home to host a Carolina Panthers who lost on the road in Washington last week. The Panthers still rank better by overall DVOA and the Eagles have been up and down all season, mainly due to the problems they’ve had on offence. The last couple of weeks have looked better though as Carson Wentz has found his feet behind centre and he got Alshon Jeffery back from injury. The Panthers not only lost to Washington, but needed a last minute sixty yard field goal to beat the New York Giants and with them being on the road for a second week in a row it feels like the Eagles have the edge in this one. I’m not thrilled with the points but I think the Eagles are on the up whilst the Panthers are having a wobble. This is usually the cue for me to get the pick wrong.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:       Eagles

Texans @ Jaguars (-4.5)

These are two teams that right now are performing pretty similarly in that they both have top ten defences and under-performing offences. The Jaguars come home after losing two on the road and you have to think the defence will be desperate to put things right after shipping forty against the Cowboys last week. The Texans struggling offensive line could be just the tonic to facilitate that and the fact that Deshaun Watson is fighting a chest injury is perhaps not surprising given the amount of times he has been hit. It’s a big if, but if Blake Bortles can stop the turnovers this week then things could easily settle for the Jaguars and I fancy them to bounce back big now that they are finally home. The points worry me though, and in the end I’m going to grab the points in a game that has far too many unknowns for me to feel comfortable making a strong pick.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:       Jaguars

Saints @ Ravens (-2.5)

This should be a cracking matchup when the New Orleans Saints’ offence takes on the Baltimore Ravens’ defence and this looks to be one of the more interesting matchups of the week. The Saints are coming of a bye having won their previous four weeks, but this will be as stiff a challenge as they have faced all season and the Saints are actually ranked three places lower in DVOA thanks to the balance the Ravens have across all phases of the game. The numbers for Drew Brees on the road are markedly different and going against the leagues number two defence by DVOA in Baltimore where they Ravens only need a field goal to cover I’m going to back the home team but it would not surprise me if the Saints win this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

Cowboys @ Washington (-1.5)

I almost have no idea what to do with this one. After joining the chorus of people stating their frustration with the Cowboys offence, they came up with a game plan that scored forty points against the Jaguars vaunted defence last week and this week they travel to a perennially average Washington team who seem to specialise in being around 8-8. I don’t have a lot of faith in either side so it’s hard to pick. That said the Cowboys defence is just outside the top ten by DVOA and is fifth against the run so whilst Washington have done well when Adrian Peterson has got yards, I’m not sure he can do it week to week or against this defence. The Cowboys have been bad on the road but in this divisional matchup they have won the last four and getting points I’m going to take a risk. Watch Washington prove me wrong now!

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

Rams @ 49ers (+10.5)

It’s a trap! The LA Rams are rolling and are the only remaining undefeated team having swept aside all before them and this week they travel to San Francisco to face a 49ers team who have one win so far this season. However, as much as the Rams don’t let up on their opponents, they have some injuries and it has been three weeks since they beat a team by enough points to cover this spread and they are on the road for a third straight week. I’m not predicting an upset, certainly for a team on a short week but I think the 49ers can keep this within eleven.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick:       Rams

Bengals @ Chiefs (-5.5)

I am properly terrified by this game. Even though it wasn’t the worst defeat to the Steelers last week, the Bengals picked up a bunch of knocks and worrying injuries in the secondary. Now they are taking their twenty-fourth ranked defence on the road to face the terrifying Kansas City Chiefs’ juggernaut of an offence. This game had loss written all over it even before it was flexed into prime time, which has historically not been a happy place for the Marvin Lewis led Bengals. I think this will be a shootout and it is possible the Bengals will hang with the Chiefs but I don’t know if they can keep it close enough to make a cover worth a pick. In a second week of emotional hedging, I will hope to be proved wrong but I wasn’t last week.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:       Chiefs

Giants @ Falcons (-6.5)

This is a strange primetime matchup in that it pits a New York Giants team struggling to put together much on either side of the ball against an Atlanta Falcons team who are beset by injuries. The Falcons defence is ranked thirty-first in league by DVOA having lost key players up its spine and so their offence has not been able to score enough to win games. The Giants have two world class skills position players, but with the problems on the offensive line and Eli Manning’s struggles they have not been able to really take advantage of them enough to win. The ability of Saquon Barkley is breath taking, but he has been very boom or bust with long runs combined with getting stuffed at the line. This is a big line for a team with two wins, but the Falcons have one unit that is still in the top half by DVOA and with Matt Ryan at home let’s push the boat out as I just can’t trust the Giants on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:       Falcons

Somehow we are at week seven and with me barely holding onto a lead in the pick competition we turn to the new week’s games.

Gee:    Week 6   8-7               Overall   46-47
Dan:     Week 6   9-6               Overall   45-48

Broncos @ Cardinals (+2.5)

This is a difficult pick given that whilst the Cardinal have shown enough on defence to beat the spread a couple of times, they are pairing a top ten defence by DVOA with the thirty-first ranked offence that has a fair gap between them and Cleveland at thirtieth and a chasm down to the Bills who are propping up the league. However, whilst the Broncos are somehow ranked thirteenth overall by DVOA and eighteenth on defence, they have also given up and astonishing five hundred and ninety-three rush yards in the last two games. Now I thought this would be historically bad, and whilst it is certainly not good, the Indianapolis Colts actually managed this feat last year and there have been two hundred such streaks since the merger. Now I focussed on this diligently because David Johnson is an incredibly talented back, but it turns out the Cardinals are ranked thirty-second in the league for run attack by DVOA so now I’m even more lost…

I am actually interested in this game, I want to see what is going on with both teams and take a look at Josh Rosen but picking it feels like a fool’s errand. However, there is a picks competition to keep going and so a side has to be taken. Working on my principle of picking the home team Thursday night unless there is a really good reason not to, and given that I’m getting points I’m going to pick the Cardinals but this is what is technically known as a crap shoot.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Week 7 Trivia

This week’s write up of the trivia is too good to cut, and I’m not just saying that because I pulled a point back on Dan:

‘Week 5’s kickers question and Graham Gano’s 63 yarder prompted an unusual bonus question in week 6.

My original Wk6 offering asked which College Football teams had produced the most Hall of Famers. Well Gee warmed up some of his grey cells and correctly answered Notre Dame but didn’t add to this Southern California, both of which have sent 12 of their number. I will, however, award Gee 1 point for the weeks best effort.

The Bonus then asked who holds the IN PLAY record FG distance. Dan was convinced that the record stood at 63 but I hadn’t shot myself in the foot as on 8 December 2013 the Broncos Matt Pater scored a withering 64 yards. I’m glad I specified In Play or we may have seen a new offence of ‘roughing the question master’ when I tell you that College kicker Nick Rose from Texas managed an imperious 80 yards. Yes 80. So it was just 1 point for Gee this week I’m afraid.

Calming things down, here is the question for Week 7 is, very simply – How many of the 32 NFL stadiums have Grass playing surfaces. I’ll give a score of 2 points for an exact hit or a consolation 1 if you are within 3 of the actual figure.’

So let’s hope I can do a little better this week than the last one, we shall see, but first the proof that Dan’s dad is doing so much better at setting trivia questions that we are at answering them.

‘I don’t remember asking any questions so far about College Football yet its popularity is huge. Just this once I will allow the use of Google just this once:

Which college has produced the most Hall of Famers in pro football?

OK so here comes the promised Week 6 BONUS and this one is for 2 points so we can get the scoreboard ticking:

Who holds the in-game record all time FG distance and what is it?’

Okay, so this is a pair of interesting questions. I have a couple of theories on the first one, I think Miami Hurricanes have a lot because of their history on defence, and USC have a bunch as well but I think the college with the most is actually not one you might think of now because Notre Dame used to be huge as a football team (I’ve heard this thanks to listening to Tony Kornheiser) so that’s what I’m nervously going for.

The kicking thing is going to drive me round the bend whilst Dan is obsessed with it so think he’s going to beat me but my guess, and it is a shot in the dark, is Sebastian Janikowski but it’s a guess… Let’s say sixty-four yards as Gano’s last week was sixty-three.

‘I’m taking a decent lead here in the Trivia after a slow start!

So question 1, I am stuck on. I don’t watch and don’t follow college football, so I’m going to go with Texas A&M as one of the only ones I can name off the top of my head!

And for question 2, I think dad’s snookered himself here, because I think Graham Gano’s kick was the joint longest as it goes! So I’ll say along with him, Adam Vinatieri, and 63 yards.’

Buccaneers @ Falcons (-3.5)

This is a strange game in that the Atlanta Falcons are really struggling as the injuries reached a critical mass early, particularly on defence and so whilst the offence is ranked eleventh, they haven’t been able to overcome the problems on defence. This week they welcome a Tampa Bay Buccaneers coming off a bye but they were last been seen getting dismantled by the Chicago Bears. They are returning with Jameis Winston as the starter and a defence that ranks dead last in the league by DVOA. The up and down nature of the Bucs play doesn’t inspire confidence but neither does the Falcons, so how do you pick? The two teams are ranked next to each other and whilst the Falcons are at home and do have a better quarterback, the extra half point just makes me worry yet I can’t find it in myself to put my trust in the Buccaneers. I could be really wrong on this.

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Falcons

‘Difficult pick straight off the bat here. I’ll go with Atlanta as I think they’ve got enough to win this one, especially with Home advantage.’

Bills @ Texans (-7.5)

This line makes me nervous as the Texans have not exactly been convincing. Bill O’Brien failed to co-ordinate a lot of points in the red zone last week and got Deshaun Watson hit too much and his defence, whilst looking good in the front seven has problems in coverage. This week they welcome a Bills team who compete and have somehow managed to win two games despite the deficiencies in their roster and this is making this game and absolute nightmare to pick. I think the Texans are more likely to win than not, but the Bills have twice pulled an upset and the fact that the Texans need to win by eight points to cover is definitely worrying me. In the end I can’t quite back the Texans to do that, but I could look very silly by the end of this evening.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

‘The Bills have looked a different team to that of the first couple of weeks of the year. That being said, the Texans look good too, but given the size of the spread, I’ll go with Buffalo.’

Bears @ Dolphins (+2.5)

The good news for the Miami Dolphins is that Laremy Tunsil has cleared the concussion protocol and is expected to play against the Chicage Bears. The bad news is that the Bears defence is currently ranked first in the league by DVOA and Khalil Mack has been an MVP candidate through the first four weeks of the season. Coming off their bye the Bears will be rested and looking to build on the offensive performance of their last game where Mitch Trubisky threw for six touchdowns. This is not the team that the Dolphins will exactly have chosen to try to arrest their two game losing streak against, but it’s not the worst either. The points at home are tempting but the injuries to the Dolphins worry me and with Tannehill dealing with a shoulder injury and the Bears having a week to consolidate on the best performance by Trubisky so far I’m plumping for the Bears.

Gee’s Pick: Bears
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

‘Even with the possibility of no Tannerhill, leaving us open to the return of Brock Osweiler…!’

Steelers @ Bengals (-2.5)

I’m really not sure about this game. The Bengals have scraped several wins this season and I’m still waiting to see how the Bengals offence holds up minus Tyler Eifert long term and whether the defence can really solidify. They host a Steelers team who got a good win against the Falcons last week and who have generally had the better of the Bengals in this bitter rivalry. The offence is top ten by DVOA and the defence looked better last week and given the history of this game I am going to make the emotional hedge of backing the Steelers and hoping to be proven wrong.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

‘The Steelers are a bit of a mess at the minute… and if the Bengals can play how they did for the second half of last week, they should do this fairly easily.’

Chargers @ Browns (+0.5)

This should be an entertaining game as the LA Chargers and their third ranked offence by DVOA travel to face a two win Browns team and their second ranked by DVOA defence. I can see why Hue Jackson is trying to keep his team grounded but it’s just good to see the long suffering Cleveland fans excited about their quarterback. This is not an easy journey for the Chargers who seem to specialise in close games but are traveling cross country to play an early game and in front of an energised stadium I’m tempted by the Browns but there is a huge gap between them in rankings and Philip Rivers just has me backing the Chargers. I think…

Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Browns

‘They’ve kept it close all season in Cleveland. I think they’ll win this week.’

Colts @ Jets (-2.5)

This is a strange game for me to pick as the New York Jets have been up and down all season and last week rookie Sam Darnold throwing three touchdowns as the Jets beat the Broncos. This week they face an Indianapolis Colts team coming off a long week following their Thursday night loss to the Patriots. Andrew Luck continues to look good as the Colts continue to compete every week and have several times made the games closer than the scores might suggest. As a consequence, I’m finding this one a little hard to pick but with the Jets at home and only needing a field goal to win I’m going for the Jets and let’s see how I do.

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Jets

‘This is close. Tough pick…. I think I’m going to go with New York purely because they’ve got the home advantage.’

Seahawks @ Raiders (+2.5)

The Seattle Seahawks may not have got back to winning ways at home last week, but they made the LA Rams really work for their victory and are definitely beginning to look like they are establishing Pete Carroll’s old template of tough defence and running the ball. This may not be your legion of boom defence but I like them going against an Oakland Raiders team who have not looked good this season and who look slow on defence. I could be wrong, particularly as the fact that this game is the first in London this year throws the home/road situation into flux, but I just fancy the Seahawks to keep themselves in the playoff mix with a win this week.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

‘Unfortunately for the Raiders, I think they’re going to go 0-2 at Wembley here. I’m going for the Seahawks, but as with all of the Wembley games, it really could go either way.’

Cardinals @ Vikings (-10.5)

The Minnesota Vikings got back to winning ways last week and now host an Arizona Cardinals team who got their own first win. In fact the Cardinals have a top ten defence by DVOA and have quietly only lost the two games before that by two and three points. I don’t think they can suddenly turn the Vikings over on the road but this is too many points for a team that are still righting themselves after a difficult start, even if they do have a genuine home advantage.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

‘The Vikings will win this one, but I don’t think it’ll be by more thank 10.5 points, so I’ll go with the Cards.’

Panthers @ Washington (-1.5)

In something of a theme for this week I am really unsure about this game. We last saw Washington getting thrashed by a New Orleans Saints offence that seemed to have exactly the right mix of deception and skill on offence to expose their defence. It was bad enough that Josh Norman got sat but the Panthers are a different team on offence and this season have a surprisingly lowly rated defence. They had a tough time last week, needing a sixty-three yard field goal to beat the struggling Giants and so I really have no idea on what I can rely on in this game. That said I have more faith in what Norv Turner and Cam Newton are building on offence and with Thomas Davis coming back from a PED suspension for the defence I’m going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

‘Hmmm… I really don’t know which way to go here… I think I’m going to call it as a Panthers win, but I don’t feel confident about it.’

Rams @ Broncos (+6.5)

So having had a tough time on the road in Seattle, the LA Rams now roll into Mile High Stadium to take on the Denver Broncos. The Seahawks demonstrated a formula for beating the Rams, even if they couldn’t pull off the upset and the Broncos actually have the number one ranked rush attack by DVOA so they have half of the Seahawk’s formula down. The problem is that this is not the Denver defence of recent seasons and can Von Miller get enough pressure to disrupt the rolling Rams offence? The Rams seemed to cope with two of their starting receivers leaving the game with concussions last week but both Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp have cleared concussion protocol and will play this week. The question is can they beat this big line, which they have done four times already this season, but on the road in Denver I do wonder if they might come unstuck but given that this pits the league’s third ranked team in points scored per game versus the twenty-second ranked team in points allowed per game, I’m going to back the Rams.

Gee’s Pick: Rams
Dan’s Pick: Rams

‘Rams are going to continue their unbeaten run this week, going 6-0 against the Broncos.’

Jaguars @ Cowboys (+2.5)

The Dallas Cowboys lost last week in overtime and this week they welcome a Jacksonville Jaguars team whose third ranked defence by DVOA has the players to make life very difficult for a static offence who asks its receivers to win one on one matchups and whose offensive line and run game are not dominating as they have in recent years. What gives them a chance however is that Blake Bortles has pretty much been peak Bortles this year, with up and down performances that can’t be helped by Leonard Fournette’s injuries. I think the Jaguars are the better team but coming off a difficult road loss to the Chiefs but I do wonder if a second road game might suffer the same problem yet I can’t quite bring myself to back the Cowboys pulling off the upset despite getting points at home.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

‘Another close one, but I think the Cowboys will do this. Zeke’s back on form so I think he’ll have a good one this week.’

Ravens @ Titans (+2.5)

So the Tennessee Titans are back home this week and facing a Baltimore Ravens team having lost on the road to the Buffalo Bills the week before. Last week I argued that the Titans’ offence looked to have turned a corner but that didn’t hold true and this week they face a Ravens’ defence that are top five in the league by DVOA, which they have paired with a mid-ranked offence and slightly lower special teams ranking than usual. The Ravens may have lost to the Cleveland Browns last week, but they are used to the scrappy games the Titans have been playing all season but there are six home underdogs this week and so far I have backed the road favourite in each game. I have a feeling not all of those are going to come in and the Titans look to be the best bet to cover for me so I’m going to grab them at home and hope…

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Titans

‘Other than the Dolphins game in week one, Tennessee sound like they’re doing some good things this year. I’ll go for them this week against Baltimore.’

Chiefs @ Patriots (-3.5)

I am really excited about this matchup that pits the Andy Reid’s high flying unbeaten team against a Patriots that turned the corner at the beginning of October and who have won two straight pretty convincingly whilst scoring thirty-eight points. They need to do this given that their defence ranks nineteenth by DVOA but that is positively stratospheric compared to the Chiefs’ ranking of twenty-eighth. Something has to give and it just feels more likely that the Chiefs will end up 5-1 than the Patriots falling back to 3-3 despite the fact that the Chiefs won this very game last season, although that was in week one and the Patriots went on to the Super Bowl. I’m backing Brady and Belichick with revenge on the mind although I don’t feel that confident about it.

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

‘Wow, this should be a good one. Unfortunately for Kansas (and everyone fighting to keep up in the AFC East!) I think they’re going to get their first loss this week. I’m calling Patriots.’

49ers @ Packers (-9.5)

This game looked a very different fixture when the TV games were selected, but whilst CJ Beathard has not been a terrible replacement quarterback for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo, it is hard to see the 49ers getting much on the road against the Packers. The question though is can they keep this game to within ten and that is trickier as Aaron Rodgers has been pretty unimpressed with how the offence has been playing as he fights the knee injury that has hobbled him for most of the season. The Packers are coming off a loss to the Detroit Packers, who interestingly now have three straight wins over the Packers but we have to go back to 2015 for the last time these two team faced each other and 2012 for the 49ers to be making a trip to Lambeau Field. A big part of last week’s Packers loss was Mason Crosby missing four field goal attempts and an extra point and that is likely to be on his mind in this nationally televised game. I’m really not sure how the Packers are going to look this week and whilst I expect them to win, the ten points require this feels like too many even if they are at home. I’m going back and forth but I’ve kept getting bitten by big lines this season but the 49ers just lost by ten points to the Cardinals at home and so I’m risking the Packers.

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: 49ers

‘I just cant back the Packers by 10 points here. It’s too much of a big spread, even with the 49ers not being great.’

Well, I managed to drop another point back in the trivia competition with Dan and just about managed to stay ahead of him in the picks competition whilst slipping back into a losing overall record. Time to re-evaluate my process but just because I was wrong doesn’t necessarily mean the picks were.

Gee:     Week 5   4-11              Overall   38-40
Dan:    Week 5   7-8                Overall   36-42

Eagles @ Giants (+2.5)

So the week six Thursday night game pits two divisional foes against each and both are struggling for different reasons. The Giants offence continues to struggle with Eli Manning unable to turnaround his form of recent seasons despite the moves over the summer and the defence currently ranks down in the twenties by DVOA. The Eagles were struggling with injuries even before they lost Jay Ajayi for the season with an ACL tear and whilst their defence is holding in with a ranking of eleventh by DVOA, the offence has not found a rhythm and is currently ranked twenty-fourth.

My first instinct is that the Eagles will find a way to win this game but what makes me hesitate is that the Giants put a very credible effort up against the Panthers, are at home on a Thursday night, and are getting points. I think this game is too important for the Eagles to lose having already lost two straight and with them only needing a field goal to cover I’m going to back them on the road, but with the way things have been going I would hardly be surprised if the Giants managed to cover or win.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:     Eagles

Week 6 Trivia

‘In Week 5 I asked who kicked the longest field goal of the 2017/18 season.

Good answers all round, I can see the logic in both but this time the point goes to Dan.

Strangely when Panthers’ Graham Gano slotted a 63yd game winning FG against the Giants in Week 5 he eclipsed last season’s best kick and notched one of the longest in history (in a game NOT practice). I feel a BONUS question coming on!

Eyes down for Week 6 then:

I don’t remember asking any questions so far about College Football yet its popularity is huge. Just this once I will allow the use of Google, just this once:

Which college has produced the most Hall of Famers in pro football?

OK so here comes the promised Week 6 BONUS and this one is for 2 points so we can get the scoreboard ticking:

Who holds the in-game record all time FG distance and what is it?’

Well despite dropping points to Dan and his dad on Thursday I don’t actually feel bad about my pick, particularly given Adam Vinatieri hit the post with a field goal attempt but I can’t drop too many more as we head into the rest of the week five picks. However, first I have to try to get myself back level with Dan in the trivia question comptition so here’s a reminder of this week’s question set by Dan’s Dad, who will also be offering his thoughts on this week’s games with Dan being on holiday:

‘Which NFL player kicked a 62-yard field goal, the longest of the 2017/8 season?’

Now I feel relatively confident about this questions as if I’m right, the Bengals drafted this kicker last season, placed him on the practice squad so I had to watch him be picked up by the Eagles, kick a sixty yard field goal and win a Super Bowl so I believe that the player is Jake Elliott.

‘I seem to remember us covering this kick on the pod last year, what with me being a kicking aficionado – it was The Mexico game, and the kick was made by Stephen Gotskowski (I googled him, but only to check how to spell his name, I promise!) for the Patriots.’

Falcons @ Steelers (-3.5)

This game is a huge one for both teams who each only have one win and can’t really afford to lose. Neither team are exactly playing much defence although the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defence is ranked significantly better at nineteenth by DVOA as opposed to the thirtieth ranking of the Atlanta Falcons who have lost yet another starter. The Falcons’ offence on the other hand have been playing really well and are ranked top ten whilst the Steelers have not quite jelled so far. This should lead to an exciting game, but does not make it easy to pick as the form book does not offer much help yet with the Falcons on the road and really suffering through injuries I’m leaning Steelers for the win. However, the extra half point is making it a really awkward pick for me but in the end I’m going to back the Steelers against a dome team on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:     Falcons

‘I’ve changed several times on this one so there’s a 50-50 chance I’ve ended in the wrong camp but I think the Falcons have something to prove and even away I’m picking them.

Dan’s Dad Says FALCONS’

Titans @ Bills (+3.5)

I have been impressed with the Tennessee Titans’ ability to grind out wins over the last few weeks and after beating the Eagles in overtime they travel to Buffalo to face a Bills team that crashed back into their bad season last week with a shutout loss to the Packers. With the hope from the Vikings win quickly fading for the Bills I feel like they face a Titans team on the up. I thought that Marcus Mariota looked much better last week and the new offence seems to be showing signs of where Matt LaFleur wants to take them so whilst I could be wrong, I think the Titans will win and cover this.

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:     Titans

‘This isn’t sour grapes based on a fluke result in the Twin Cities but I think the Titans form tells me they will more than match the modest spread here.

Dan’s Dad Says TITANS’

Dolphins @ Bengals (-6.5)

So here we are then, the big Wrong Football rivalry game that sees Dan’s Miami Dolphins travel to face the Cincinnati Bengals and the Dolphins will be looking to bounce back from the hammering they took in New England last week. I think the Dolphins are a better team than they showed in that game but I like how the Bengals are playing this year. The loss of Tyler Eifert is big for the offence and the defence desperately needs to improve on third down, although they welcome back Vontaze Burfict this week. I think the Bengals are more likely to win this game than not but this line feels high, and whilst that could be because I’m something of a nervous fan I’m not backing the Bengals to win by seven and will hope to be proved wrong.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:     Dolphins

‘Quite a week for Dan to disappear but he would without doubt gone Dolphins. I, however, can be a little more objective and a good score in the ‘for’ column, despite a higher than average against count still puts me in the Cincinnati camp

Dan’s Dad Says BENGALS’

Ravens @ Browns (+2.5)

The Baltimore Ravens passed one test last week when they beat the Steelers but they now face a different divisional test as they travel to face a Cleveland Browns team that you could argue should be 4-0 this season. Certainly they were unlucky last week and in Baker Mayfield they look to have finally found someone who could be the franchise quarterback this reboot version of the Browns has never had. However, the Ravens have really looked good so far this season with an offence that is much improved and a defence that is once again top five in the league by DVOA. I think the Browns will really give the franchise their fans hate for leaving Cleveland a hell of a game, but with the options that Joe Flacco now has to throw to and the not so secret weapon of kicker Justin Tucker I like the Ravens to win by at least a field goal. I could live with being wrong though…

Gee’s Pick:      Ravens
Dan’s Pick:     Ravens

‘In the 1^st of 5 divisional match ups this week I can’t see the Browns repeating the success against the Jets in Week 2. As that leaves just one team I’m going Baltimore

Dan’s Dad Says RAVENS’

Broncos @ Jets (-0.5)

Both of these teams have lost their last two games but in very different manners as the Denver Broncos really pushed the Chiefs whilst the New York Jets have not looked the same since their week one win over the Lions. The question is can the Broncos win on the road despite the horrid time slot for them and a short week, but given how the Jets have played over recent weeks I have to think the answer to that is more likely than not yes.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:     Broncos

‘Much as I have a lifelong (well since 1972) affinity to Joe Nameth and the Jets I do see the Broncos breaking their 2 game losing streak although this is one which I wouldn’t be surprised sliding the other way.

Dan’s Dad Says BRONCOS’

Packers @ Lions (+1.5)

I really don’t have a good handle on the Detroit Lions as after what looked to be a turn the corner win against the Patriots they followed that up with a loss to the struggling Dallas Cowboys. This week they welcome a Green Bay Packers team who shut out the Bills last week, but who Aaron Rodgers described as, ‘terrible on offense’ in what I’ve seen spun as creative tension between him and head coach Mike McCarthy. The points are really tempting, but I just don’t trust the Lions who haven’t even worked out that rookie Kerryon Johnson should be their primary running back and in my experience it seldom pays to bet against even an injured Aaron Rodgers unless you are very sure of the team he is going against.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:     Lions

‘Another divisional game I think this one will go the way of the streaks, particularly with a very small spread. It sticks in my throat but I’m going Green Bay.

Dan’s Dad Says PACKERS (spits and considers taking up alcohol again to take the sour taste away)’

Jaguars @ Chiefs (-3.5)

This game includes the matchup of the week in my opinion as we get to see this season’s break out star Patrick Mahomes running Andy Reid’s highflying offence go against the Jacksonville Jaguars vaunted defence (even if they are second in the league by DVOA to the Chicago Bears) in what should be a cracking game. The Chiefs have paired their offence with the league’s now second worst defence so all of their games have been entertaining and certainly at points this season the Jaguars’ offence has demonstrated the capacity to take advantage of this defensive weakness. However, most of whether they will or not falls on the combination of how the Jaguars approach this game and which version of Blake Bortles plays. He does have the capacity to play really well and were this game in Jacksonville I might feel another way but Mahomes and the Chiefs have so far kept finding a way to win and in front of their vociferous fans I’m going to back the Chiefs to do so again.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:     Jaguars

‘I already have the feeling that the free scoring Chiefs could go all the way this season and with home advantage and a low spread it has got to be the Chiefs. I expect the Jags though to make the playoffs and be in the shake up come January.

Dan’s Dad Says CHIEFS’

Giants @ Panthers (-6.5)

The New York Giants lost again last week and in pretty straight forward fashion at home against the Saints. The offseason overhaul of their offence doesn’t look to have worked and this week they travel to face a rested Carolina Panthers team coming off a bye and a 2-1 start. The Panthers’ defence may be an uncharacteristic rank of twenty-fourth by DVOA but their offence is rolling with Norv Turner as their new co-ordinator despite the injury to Greg Osen and I think this should be a relatively straight forward game for them. I have a slight pause about this laying this number of points but I don’t think the Giants have enough going at the moment to cover this line on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:     Giants

‘Nothing I was measuring really gave me a solid clue here but I think that the Panthers are probably more together so the spread was more a nudge than a clincher

Dan’s Dad Says PANTHERS’

Raiders @ Chargers (-5.5)

This will be another of the strange home games for the LA Chargers where there will be more away fans than home fans and I suspect it will be particularly bad for this game given the Raiders historic ties and popularity within LA. It has been an up and down start to the season for the Chargers, although having to face the Rams and Chiefs in the first four weeks is a pretty tough start. They welcome a Raiders team coming off their first win of the season who have looked better since the week one loss to the Rams. I’m still not convinced about the Raiders long term plans and trading away Khalil Mack, but Marshawn Lynch has somehow managed to maintain his fearsome playing style at thirty-two. I’m not sure the Raiders will win this game but I like them to keep it closer than six points against a Chargers team who frequently don’t seem to be able to get out of their own way despite the excellent play of Philip Rivers.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:     Chargers

‘The 3^rd divisional game this week brings together two very closely matched teams and choosing was not easy. Until I saw the spread I was edging towards Raiders but the spread and home field advantage left me ticking the Chargers

Dan’s Dad Says  CHARGERS’

Rams @ Seahawks (+7.5)

The LA Rams are rolling even with multiple injuries at corner, thanks in no small part to their league dominating offence. This week they travel to Seattle to face a Seahawks team who are 2-2 despite playing three games on the road but the Seahawks also had to work hard to beat the Cardinals last week and lost Earl Thomas for the season with a broken leg. Despite having Russell Wilson their offence ranks twenty-seventh in the league by DVOA and it is hard to see them winning this game even with their famous home field advantage. The difficulty in this game is that as it is divisional so you could see it being closer than normal for the Rams but I just don’t think this iteration of the Seahawks will keep up and the Rams stay as aggressive against anyone so whilst the Seattle crowd does make me pause, they also had to watch their team lose by thirty-five points last season in this fixture and I think it will be big differential again. Watch the Seahawks now keep it close!

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:     Rams

‘Yet another divisional game and at last one where I thought it would be easy. Two teams that are on winning streaks but the Rams 4 on the spin and +73 point net for me is why even with a 7 point spread away from home I cant see past them

Dan’s Dad Says RAMS’

Vikings @ Eagles (-3.5)

This is an important game for two teams who have not looked quite right so far this season. This is strange for the Minnesota Vikings as the combination of new offensive coordinator John DeFillippo and quarterback Kirk Cousins looks to be working really well, but only has them a ranking of nineteenth by DVOA and apart from losing to the Rams and drawing with the Packers despite Aaron Rodgers knee injury, they found a way to get beaten convincingly by the Bills. This week they take on a Philadelphia Eagles team who just don’t look right even with the return of Carson Wentz who lost an overtime game to the Titans last week. The vaunted pass rush of last season doesn’t look to be the same although the defence has remained top ten by DVOA but the offence ranks twenty-fourth. I find this a hard game to predict and I thought it was interesting that Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer said he could be over coaching the defence so in the end I’m going to grab the extra half point for the road team as I’m really not sure how this one is going to play out.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:     Vikings

‘This would normally be seen as a competitive game and indeed it may well be one but both are unusually on losing streaks. Who has something to prove, well both really but a modest spread and home advantage I think plays to the Eagles. That said against the Rams Mike Tice seemed to have started a turn round – and the time since Thursday night will have given him time to work on things. My fear is that there is a lot to work on and the Vikings’ defence are not the wall they were last term. Sorry to say, it’s the Eagles (but if I’m wrong I will be happy !)

Dan’s Dad Says EAGLES’

Cardinals @ 49ers (-4.5)

The Arizona Cardinals didn’t win last week, but Josh Rosen kept them competitive after Sam Bradford did the same the week before against the Bears. However, they still don’t have a win and this week they travel to face a San Francisco 49ers team who managed to keep the game competitive against the Chargers despite having to start CJ Beathard at quarterback. This looks to be one of the better chances for the Cardinals to get a win this season as there is only a solitary win between both these teams through week four, but it’s hard to see it happening on the road for the Cardinals. That said they have kept their last two games to within four but as this is their second road game of the season I do think the 49ers will win but in the end this is too many points for me to give away with a backup quarterback starting and the list of injuries the 49ers have.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:     Cardinas

‘The last of this week’s divisional games sees 2 teams well in the mire. The Cardinals are not scoring but shipping points which is not a good combination, hence looking for a 1^st win of the season. So will that spur them on? Well at home possibly, and with a spread perhaps, but neither is there for them so I’m going for the 49ers

Dan’s Dad Says SF 49ERS’

Cowboys @ Texans (-3.5)

The battle of Texas sees the Cowboys travel from Dallas to Houston to face the Texans in what is kind of an intriguing game. Both teams are coming off wins but the Cowboys have been struggling on offence all season, particularly throwing the ball, and they have lost both of their road games so far. The Texans may have only got their first win last week but Deshaun Watson is beginning to look more like himself and the front seven of the Texans is starting to look strong as the various players who were injured last season start to look like their olds selves. The Cowboys look ill equipped to take advantage of the problems the Texans are having in coverage whilst also missing Sean Lee on defence again. I don’t have a strong feel for this game and I’ll likely watch it this week as I’ve only seen Cowboys’ highlights, but I fancy the Texans to win their second game and so I’ll reluctantly back them to cover this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:     Texans

‘When teams are 2-2 and 1-3 and with similar scoring profiles a lot comes down to gut feel and spread. Both have 1 game winning streaks and the spread is not helping but that along with home field advantage and I’ll go Texans

Dan’s Dad Says TEXANS’

Washington @ Saints (-6.5)

I’m really looking forward to seeing the Monday night game this week as the New Orleans Saints welcome a rested Washington team that has a top ten offence by DVOA and a defence that ranks twelfth. The Saints meanwhile have been rolling on offence but have really struggled on defence, essentially making them the NFC Chiefs but without the unbeaten record. However, the consistency of Drew Brees has to be admired and the offensive production is why the Saints are seen as such heavy favourites in this one. The issue for me is the up down nature of a Washington team that has paired convincing wins against the Cardinals and Packers with a bad home loss to the Colts. Sure the rest will help with them coming of a bye but will they be competitive against a Saints team in a dome? I’m going to suggest that with that week’s rest and going against the twenty-ninth ranked defence in the league that Washington can keep this game to within seven. Whether they will or not is a different matter but that’s why they play the games.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:     Saints

‘On the one hand both teams are on winning streaks, and are better than .500 so far. The Saints have home field and are scoring strongly, but conceding too. Will they win by 7? Possibly thanks to playing at home so I’m picking them this week.

Dan’s Dad Says SAINTS’

So a couple of better weeks picking has seen me overhaul Dan’s dad’s lead at the top of our picks league. However, my trivia game is not as on point as you will see at the bottom of this week’s post. However, I have Dan and his dad’s pick for tonight so let’s look at what could be a tasty Thursday night game.

Gee:     Week 4   11-4              Overall   34-29
Dan:    Week 4   6-9                Overall   29-34

Colts @ Patriots (-10.5)

The Indianapolis Colts record maybe 1-3 but they’ve run three teams close and beaten Washington who themselves are top of the NFC East. I start with this because yes the New England Patriots got back on track with a big win last week, yes they are at home, yes it’s October and yes the Patriots are very good against the spread even when giving away large numbers of points. However, whilst the Colts can’t run the ball at all, their defence is currently ranked tenth by DVOA and Andrew Luck is coming off a game where threw for a career high yardage last week. My default pick for the Thursday night game is take the home team unless there’s a very good reason not and in this case, I think an eleven point win is too many points when the teams are next to each other in the overall DVOA rankings. I could well be gifting a point to Dan and his dad but my evaluation is Colts to keep this within eleven and I’m sticking to it. That doesn’t mean I feel great about it…

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

‘Not only are the Pats at home they have also started to get the formula running. Bill B doesn’t let issues hang around for long and while the Colts have been given a serious boost in the spread I think momentum and home field will bring this one in.

Dan’s Dad Says PATRIOTS’

Week 5 Trivia

‘Last week I asked Who Captain Fear was and which team he supported. I think we got as far as this being a Mascot and Dan managed to bring the ship home.

Dan 2, Gee 1 on aggregate. 

This week is, I hope, straightforward:

Which NFL player kicked a 62-yard field goal, the longest of the 2017/8 season?

These are not a nice set of lines as we head into week four of the regular season, but first there’s the matter of our trivia competition:

‘So, now we move onto Week 4 where I want to know Who is Captain Fear and which team does he support?’

I’m going to have to take a complete shot in the dark here and suggest he founded the Black Hole fan group and therefore supports the Oakland Raiders.

‘It’s back to guessing again this week for me, but I think the word ‘Captain’ is the giveaway – I think Captain Fear is the pirate mascot of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.‘

Bengals @ Falcons (-5.5)

This is an important game for the Bengals as they will want to keep the pressure on the Ravens in the AFC North and they will want to bounce back from last week’s loss to the Panthers. They were in the Panthers game until the fourth quarter even if their run defence was bad, but the turnovers weren’t really Dalton’s fault and this week they travel to face an Atlanta team that keep losing starting players. The Falcon’s offence found its scoring mojo in last week’s crazy game with the Saints but the Bengals defence is a very different unit. I’m not definitively predicting the Bengals to win, but I absolutely feel like they will be within six points by the end of the game and I’m hoping for the win.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

‘I actually think Bengals could end up doing pretty well in this one. Not only do I think they’ll cover, I think they’ll win!’

Bills @ Packers (-10.5)

The Green Bay Packers went to Washington and got thumped so I’m a little surprised that they are giving eleven points in this game. I’m not saying that everything is suddenly fixed for the Bills, but they got a tough road win and whilst there could be a let-down, this is too many points for me to give when Aaron Rodgers is not fit and the defence of the Packers is ranked twenty-seventh in the league by DVOA

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

‘This is REALLY difficult to pick. A week ago I’d have said easily Packers, but with that spread, and with their performance last week against the Vikings, I’m going to go with the Bills.’

Buccaneers @ Bears (-2.5)

This is a truly fascinating game. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers nearly managed to pull back their Monday night game against the Steelers after a disastrous first half where Ryan Fitzpatrick kept throwing interceptions. Given that he was the first NFL quarterback to throw for four hundred yards in three straight games it feels like he has to come back to earth a little. Particularly against a Chicago Bears defence that currently ranks number one by DVOA and boasts the early candidate for defensive player of the year in Khalil Mack who is making every Raiders fan sad about the strange trade that sent him to the Bears. The problem for the Bears is that as well as Matt Nagy’s offence looks to be schemed, the instinct of Mitch Trubisky is to tuck and run, which right now looks as if it could hold back this team. I’m not confident about this, but in the end I’m going with the quarterback that I have a little more faith in and the thing that he seems to have going with his co-ordinator Todd Monken calling the plays.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Buccaneers

‘Could we see the return of Jameis Winston? Probably not. Buccs win.’

Lions @ Cowboys (-2.5)

This is a fairly straight forward pick to me, which probably means I’m about to get this horribly wrong but the Dallas Cowboys look to be in trouble. The offence just isn’t working as they haven’t replaced either Jason Witten or Dez Bryant and so Dak Prescott is lacking options in the passing game just when the offensive line has some injuries and isn’t the dominant unit it has been in recent season. If things weren’t bad enough, the defence’s talisman Sean Lee is out and so I don’t fancy them at all against a Detroit Lions team who seem to have been improving week to week and who I fancy to get a win on the road in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Lions

‘Fourth game in a row I’m going for the road team! Lions for me in this one.’

Eagles @ Titans (+3.5)

This is very much a strange game to pick given that the Tennessee Titans have won the last two games by a field goal despite the nerve injury that is hampering Marcus Mariota who didn’t even start the last game and they have an overall ranking of twenty-fourth by DVOA. The Philadelphia Eagles are having a difficult start to the season thanks to the injuries they have but at least Carson Wentz is back behind centre. Thanks to the points I’m really undecided about this one so in the end I’m going to grab the points for a home underdog.

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

‘Make that 5! The Titans haven’t actually looked as poor as I thought they might after week one, and have won their last couple. That being said, I think the Eagles have a good feel about them and will want to really establish themselves with Wentz back. Eagles win.’

Texans @ Colts (-0.5)

This is a really important game for the 0 – 3 Houston Texans who have really struggled thanks to an offensive line that is not getting the job done and problems in their secondary. This week they travel to face an Indianapolis Colts team who have looked competitive all season as Andrew Luck works his way back from his long term shoulder injury and the defence quietly has improved to just outside the top ten by DVOA through three weeks. I’m trying to balance up the desperation of the Texans to finally get a win vs the clear problems they are having and a line that is giving me no help whatsoever. This is another game I don’t have a hugely strong feel for so I’m going to grab the home team and hope.

Gee’s Pick: Colts
Dan’s Pick: Texans

‘Difficult one to call, but I think the Texans will do this.’

Dolphins @ Patriots (-6.5)

I find this a curious line because as difficult as it is to see the New England Patriots losing three games in a row there are real problems with both the receiving options and the balance of the offence as well as the defence. The Miami Dolphins however have hugely benefitted from having Ryan Tannehill back from injury and look to have impressive speed on offence whilst the defence has played tough all season and the Dolphins are currently ranked second in the league by DVOA. I’m not saying the Dolphins will definitely win but I they are more likely to be within seven than not.

Gee’s Pick: Dolphins
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

‘Miami to win at Gillette Stadium for the first time since 2008.’

Jets @ Jaguars (-7.5)

I am going to resist reading too much into the Jaguars loss last week as divisional games can be funny but they will want to get things back on track this week as they host the New York Jets who have very much struggled since their opening win against the Detroit Lions. I find it hard to predict that Sam Darnold (who is going through the usual rookie difficulties) suddenly having an easier time against the Jaguars defence. The Jets were competitive with a poor roster last season but on the road I see them struggling yet this number of points worries me. However, in the end I can’t quite bring myself to pick them. I may well regret this.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Jets

‘New York will want to get back to winning ways after losing to the Browns, and while I don’t think they’ll do that this week, they won’t lose by more than a touchdown I wouldn’t have thought.’

Browns @ Raiders (-2.5)

The Cleveland Browns travel to Oakland to seek their first consecutive wins in four years with the Baker Mayfield era definitely started. However, it will be a different test coming in as the starter but Mayfield made such a difference to the way the Browns’ offence operated whilst their defence has been better all year. That said, whilst I don’t exactly trust them, the Browns face a Raiders team who are winless this season but there are signs that the Browns won’t have it all their own way. The Raiders have been competitive for the last two games and having started the season against the juggernaut Rams they have been on the road for those two games as well. The Raiders will be desperate to get their first win and I find it just too hard to predict a Browns win two weeks in a row.

Gee’s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

‘Can’t see the Browns winning this week. The Raiders didn’t look too bad last week and I think they’ve got enough about them to win here.’

Seahawks @ Cardinals (+3.5)

I thought the Arizona Cardinals would have a tough season but they have truly struggled and have now made the move to start rookie quarterback Josh Rosen but he faces an uphill task. That said the Cardinals did manage to get out to a fourteen-point lead last week until they succumbed to a Chicago Bears comeback. However, whilst the Seattle Seahawks have not exactly looked good, they have been competitive and are coming off their first win of the season. I don’t have a strong feel for this game, which has recent years has been a tense close battle between divisional opponents and in the end I’m going to grab the points and not feel confident at all.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

‘Can’t really decide on this one, but seeing as I’ve got to, I’ll go Seattle.’

Saints @ Giants (+3.5)

The New York Giants got their first win last week on the road going against a poor Texans team and this week they welcome a New Orleans Saints team whose offence is top five by DVOA and whose defence is bottom five. There is a big difference for the Saints when Drew Brees is on the road outdoors than in a dome but the bad weather has not truly hit yet and I have so much more faith in the Brees led offence than what Eli Manning is producing at the moment. I might really regret this but I’m backing the Saints in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Saints

‘They might have needed overtime to get the win last week against Atlanta, but I think they’ll settle this one fairly comfortably this week. Saints to win.’

49ers @ Chargers (-10.5)

This is a tricky game for me in that yes the San Francisco 49ers have lost Jimmy Garoppolo for the season but I mentally have a picture of the LA Chargers struggling to win games by a lot However, they have managed a win by eleven already this season and totalled five such wins last season and so now I swinging back and forth on this one. In the end this feels like too many points for a team that I don’t entirely trust so I’m reluctantly picking the 49ers to cover against one of the worst home advantages in the league but I’m not convinced.

Gee’s Pick: 49ers
Dan’s Pick: Chargers

‘It’s tempting to pick the 49ers given the 10.5 spread, but I’m going to say LA because the 49ers are a bit broken.’

Ravens @ Steelers (-3.5)

This should be a cracking game that sees the Baltimore Ravens facing the Pittsburgh Steelers in a huge divisional game where the Steelers will be looking to get their second win of the season. The Ravens got back to winning ways last week having paired an improved offence with their traditionally strong defence. I like them to keep this game close and given the issues the Steelers have on defence and how I don’t expect Flacco to turn the ball over with the same rate as Fitzpatrick did on Monday I think this will be a close game and the extra half point has me backing the Ravens to keep this within a field goal if not win.

Gee’s Pick: Ravens
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

‘This could really go either way. I’m going to call Ravens but I won’t be overly surprised if I don’t get this one.’

Chiefs @ Broncos (+5.5)

The Denver Broncos have improved on offence this year but their defence also looks to have taken a step back and as much as they have a good home advantage, particularly early in the season, they face a Kansas City Chiefs team with the best offence in the league right now. Andy Reid will be very comfortable with his trading away of Alex Smith given that Patrick Mahomes has thrown for thirteen touchdowns and no interceptions through the three games of this season. Even with their home advantage the Broncos have not beaten the Chiefs since 2015 but the question is whether they can keep this game with six and that still has me struggling to make up my mind given the Chiefs bottom of the league defence. I expect the Chiefs to win this game but on the road for the third time in four weeks against a divisional opponent I’m nervously going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Chiefs

So after the Browns finally get a win our attention turns to the rest of the week three slate, and I can begin to panic that we’re nearly at the quarter pole of the season already! First the minor matter of the trivia question, which this week is:

‘Tell me, which is the newest of the NFL Stadiums (in the Lower-48) and when did it open?’

I believe this is the Mercedes-Benz stadium of the Atlanta Falcons that was opened last year and as seems traditional is hosting the Super Bowl this year.

‘I’ll be taking my first point of the year this week – the answer is the Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, which opened in 2017!’

Saints @ Falcons (-3.5)

I am really interested in this game as two teams who haven’t looked fully together take each other on. The Atlanta Falcons recovered from their opening week loss to get a solid win against the Carolina Panthers but both their offence and defence are ranked twenty-third in the league by DVOA and another of their starters was put on IR for the season when their best offensive guard Andy Levitre tore a tricep. This week they host a Saints team whose offence is characteristically top ten but whose defence has taking a big step back from last year’s iteration that made a big jump. A team’s defence is often more volatile than their offence from year to year and those units who make a big jump often take a step back the following year. Still, given how the Falcons have played and the fact that the clear best unit in the game is the Saints offence I’m backing them to at least cover this line.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Bills @ Vikings (-16.5)

So this is an easy game to predict but a slightly trickier one to call. The Buffalo Bills have got off to a horrid start to this season and look to be in a competition with the Arizona Cardinals for the worst team in the league. Following the logic from last week that I failed to remember, it is more likely for a team to go 2-1 or 1-2 than lose or win all their games but this week the Bills are travelling to Minnesota to face the Vikings in their newish stadium that has given them a distinct home advantage since it opened in 2016. The question is can the Vikings repeat the kind of win the Ravens had over the Bills in week one and given the chasm between the teams and where this game is being played I’m going to nervously back the Vikings to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Bengals @ Panthers (-2.5)

Of course I am nervous about this game as the Cincinnati Bengals head back out on the road for the second of the three road games they have to start the season. This week they travel to face a Carolina Panthers team where Cam Newton seems to have taken to Norv Turner as his coordinator but the defence is an uncharacteristic twenty-fourth rank by DVOA. The worry for everyone I’ve heard talking about this game is that second year running back Joe Mixon is out having had a scope on his knee but I am starting to have faith in the rebuilt offensive line and what Bill Lazor is doing on offence. I think that the Bengals can keep this close but I’d feel a lot happier if the line was -3 rather than -2.5 yet I’m still going to grab the points.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Broncos @ Ravens (-4.5)

The Denver Broncos head out on the road for the first time this season and have the added difficulty of traveling to Baltimore to face a rested Ravens teams. The Broncos offence has been helped by the addition of Case Keenum and rookie running backs Royce Freeman and Phillip Freemand whilst their defence has done a job even if it is currently ranked sixteenth by DVOA. However, they have had the advantage of opening the season at highest stadium in the league whilst most teams get their legs under them after pre-season so this will be a real test of how far this team has come. The Raven’s defence is top five by DVOA and their offence looks to have more options amongst the skills players although I’m not sure the packages that have been put in for Lamar Jackson are really helping. The Broncos have eeked out two wins at home and could keep this one close but I’m not sure they will on the road but can the Ravens win by five. I’m once again going to grab the points as I don’t feel that strongly about these teams yet.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Packers @ Washington (+2.5)

The Green Bay Packers travel to Washington this week and frankly if I had the option to stay away I would as so much rides on the injured knee of Aaron Rodgers. He played well enough to win last week and the Packers offence looks good with him but the drop off if DeShone Kizer has to play is pretty startling. Their defence rank of twentieth by DVOA actually matches where they finished last season but we know that the big driver for the Packers is Rodgers. Washington fell back to earth with a bump last week as the Colts beat them in their home opener. I don’t trust Washington and I can’t hang my hat on the Packers given the injury to Rodgers.. This game feels like it could get ugly quickly, but having lost to the Colts I can’t quite bring myself to back Washington in this game although that would change if Rodgers can’t go.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Titans @ Jaguars (-7.5)

The Tennessee Titans managed to get a win last week with Blain Gabbert at quarterback but facing a Texans team with a rocky start is a very different prospect to going on the road to face the Jacksonville Jaguars and their fearsome defence. It looks like Gabbert will likely start again this week and this probably doesn’t bode well. I liked the aggressiveness the Jaguars’ offence played with last week and I would hope they keep that when Leonard Fournette returns from his hamstring injury and that they don’t automatically return to grinding out yards on the ground. I think this is a tough spot for the Titans even with some key Jaguar players being listed as questionable and that’s enough for me to lay this number of points.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Titans

Colts @ Eagles (-6.5)

So this is a really awkward game for me to pick as the Indianapolis Colts have looked pretty good so far this season with new head coach seeming to do well with Andrew Luck and a couple of promising break outs on the defence. They travel to Philadelphia to face an Eagles team who have a number of injuries but are getting Carson Wentz back from injury and he looked like the league MVP last year before he was lost. The Eagles defence is top ten by DVOA but the offence has struggled and the big question for me is will the skills players and the injuries at running back allow Wentz to look his best. The worry for me with this pick is the points and frankly there are too many unknowns with the Eagles for me to back them to win by seven even if I could regret this as I do think the Eagles are more likely to win this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

49ers @ Chiefs (-6.5)

One of the most impressive things about the Chiefs 2-0 start is that they have managed to get themselves ranked the top offence by DVOA playing on the road and this week’s home opener sees them welcome a San Francisco 49ers team who haven’t quite lived up to the promise many expected in the pre-season. The Chiefs have been a lot of fun to watch given that they’ve paired the top rated offence in the league with the worst ranked defence. The offence hasn’t gelled for the 49ers yet this season whilst the defence has improved. This is quite a lot of points for a team to cover who has the worst defence in the league by DVOA but the Chiefs have a good home advantage and the crowd is likely to hugely excited given the play of the offence and so I’m going to back the Chiefs to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Raiders @ Dolphins (-3.5)

The Oakland Raiders have got off to a tough start under Jon Gruden and despite improving last week are still yet to have a win and face a second road game as they travel to face an unbeaten Miami Dolphins team. I’m still not convinced by the Raiders as whilst the offence looked better last week, the defence is still struggling, is currently ranked twenty-seventh and frankly I’m not that convinced by Gruden as a coach. The Dolphins are a tricky team to gauge at home but I think Adam Gase is a good coach and it looks like he has more of the team he wants this season while Tannehill is currently managing the offence well. The extra half point should tempt me into making the opposite play here but the seventeen places between them by overall DVOA with Gruden on the road means I’ll be joining Dan in his Dolphins optimism this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Giants @ Texans (-5.5)

One of these 0-2 teams have to win and the line would indicate that one of these teams is a much more likely candidate. The DVOA rankings would agree with the Houston Texans ranked sixteen places higher and having a top ten defence but they also have problems at offensive tackles and a young quarterback. That said they have also been on the road for their first two games and welcome a Giants team whose offence hasn’t recovered despite getting Odell Beckham back from injury and adding the talented Saquon Barkley at running back as well as Nate Solder at left tackle. I think the Giants made a mistake by not drafting a quarterback as Eli Manning has not looked better so far and has been in decline for several seasons now. The line is what worries me though as this feels like too many points but I do not trust the Giants either and in the end that’s how I’m going to go.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Chargers @ Rams (-6.5)

The battle of LA see the Chargers travel to the Coliseum to face a Rams team who have yet to let a team get closer than twenty points to them. The Chargers should manage that but having got back to winning ways last week against the Bills last week can they make this game competitive? They would stand a better chance if they had Joey Bosa but his foot injury looks to have him out for a little while yet and whilst their offence is ranked third by DVOA their defence is ranked seventeenth and the Rams are one of those teams who never let up on offence. I’d like to think this will be competitive and later in the season I think it would be but with where these teams are at right this second I think they Rams continue their strong start.

Gee’s Pick:      Rams
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Bears @ Cardinals (+4.5)

The Chicago Bears got their first win last week as Khalil Mack continues to be a one man wrecking crew and Matt Nagy coaxes offensive production out of a talented group of skills players but a young quarterback in Mitchel Trubisky who seems to look good early with the scripted plays but whose instinct too often is to tuck the ball and run. This week however they travel to face a Cardinals team who have offered very little so far this season. They have struggled to move the ball on offence and their defence has not been much better, leaving them ranked thirty-first overall by DVOA. It seems strange to be laying this number of points on the road, but there still aren’t enough for me to back the Cardinals in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Cowboys @ Seahawks (-2.5)

The Seattle Seahawks are 0-2 for what I would have said was the first time in a number of years, but they actually started the 2015 season also losing two road games. I’m not sure they’ll be able to finish 10-6 like they did then but they might be more competitive at CenturyLink Field than they have been on the road. The problem is that the offence has not looked good under new coordinator Brian Schottenheimer and this has led Russell Wilson to a ranking of thirtieth in passing by DVOA. This week they host a Dallas Cowboys team who got their first win of the season last week but whose offence is not exactly looking great despite their ranking of eleventh by DVOA but that combined with a defensive ranking of thirteenth means they shouldn’t be overlooked. However, I find it hard to see them travelling well as Seattle is a notoriously difficult place to play and the Seahawks will be desperate to get back to winning ways. I have a lot more faith in Pete Carroll and so I’m backing the Seahawks to get back to winning ways rather than fall to 0-3.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Patriots @ Lions (+6.5)

It’s not exactly unusual for the New England Patriots to have a loss or two early in the season as Bill Belichick very much aims to have his team peaking at the end of the season and there is no shame in losing to the Jaguars these days. That said there must be some concern with the offence given that they have traded a fifth round pick to the Browns for Josh Gordon, who is expected to play in a limited fashion this week. The Patriots travel to Detroit to face a winless Lions team and their old defensive coordinator and new head coach Matt Patricia. The Lions looked better last week but still lost to the 49ers and so it’s hard to see a rookie head coach get his first win against Belichick, particularly as Belichick’s coaching tree has not exactly had a great track record outside of New England. This feels like a lot of points but I haven’t seen enough of the Lions to get the way they played in pre-season and week one out of my head so whilst I could regret this, I’m backing the Patriots to get back to winning ways as they seldom lose two games in a row (I didn’t find a time since 2013).

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Steelers @ Bucaneers (+1.5)

The Monday night game sees a winless Pittsburgh Steelers team travel to Tampa Bay to face a Buccaneers team whose offence is rolling at second in the league by DVOA but whose defence is thirty-first so they are basically the Chiefs mark two. I absolutely did not see this coming but one of the big difference this year is that Todd Monken is calling plays rather than head coach Dirk Koetter and Ryan Fitzpatrick has been outstanding in deputising for the suspended Jameis Winston. I don’t know if they can keep this rolling but this looks to be a great game as the Steelers desperately need to get their season back on track. There is no sign of Le’Veon Bell ending his holdout and having disciplined Antonio Brown for not reporting on Monday the Steelers will hope that they can get their first win of the season. The question is whether they can heal the locker room and more importantly improve a defence that is currently ranked twenty-fifth by DVOA. I’m not sure that this is the game to turn it round, but equally I find it hard to believe the Steelers will go into week four without a win and I can’t quite bring myself to pick it even if it definitely could happen.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers