Offseason Manifesto

25 Wednesday Feb 2015

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It has only been a couple of weeks since we said farewell to the 2014 season, but already major things are happening in the NFL. We’ve had all the head coaches appointed for next season, and the teams are already preparing for the draft with the NFL combine just having been completed.

The draft is one of those things that generate thousands of words and hours of talk, and I can understand that as this is a time of hope for all teams, when everyone can be excited about the draft. However, the annual parade of draft grades should be taken with a grain of salt as no one really will know how successful a draft has been for several years. I will be following with some interest and hoping for pass rushers, offensive tackles, and depth at linebacker/receiver for the Bengals, but I really don’t have any expertise to bear as I don’t follow college football, so whilst I will be following the build up with interest, I won’t be regurgitating what I hear here.

That said, I will make a quick comment about the recently completed NFL combine. There is a huge amount of variables that go into the selection of a draft pick, and whilst the combine results do make up part of the equation, it is only part of the process. Those who were invited will have spent weeks in camp preparing for the various tests and drills, but the coverage is often obsessed with the forty yard dash, broad jump etc. When you take all of the tests completed together, you can get a picture of a player’s physical talents, but this is only part of what is evaluated, and it is not even the most important part of the combine.

If the underwear Olympics is the spectacle for the fans, the real work goes on in the medicals and team interviews, and even here the preparation that goes into attending the combine is hindering the teams. The prospects are so well coached that they know how to handle the interview, and have all the right answers. You only have to look at the difference between what Johnny Manziel was saying before the draft, and his behaviour during the season to see that saying the right thing, and doing, are two very different things, and I just hope that he is getting all that he needs in rehab. However, central to this whole process is the medical, where any injuries or potential problems gets scrutinised.

I very rarely have specific players in mind for my team as I generally don’t recognise them, but I no more immune to this time of year than any other fan. That said, I do believe in building your team through the draft so I am not too worried about the upcoming free agency, apart from certain players that I’d like the Bengals to hold on to.

So as the players start thinking about next season, and begin to prepare themselves, so am I. There are things I already want to change about my writing routines next year in terms of what games I will look at and what coaching tape I watch. I’m also doing some reading to try to expand my knowledge and learn more things to look for. I will try to document these things and spend the offseason bringing some more specific articles, freed as I am from the schedule imposed by the relentless run of games. It appears that even though there were times where the season got on top of me, it did not take long for the itch to return. As Ross Tucker is apt to say, I have the disease. So whilst I have already taken advantage of having a bit more time, I’m already looking to use it in the pursuit of better football writing.

So let the offseason fun begin, as I look for the small incremental improvements that combine to make any enterprise a success.

How the Super Bowl was Won

10 Tuesday Feb 2015

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Bill Belichick, Earl Thomas, julian Edleman, Kam Chancellor, Malcolm Butler, New England Patriots, NFL, Pete Carroll, Richard Sherman, Rob Gronkowski, Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks, Shane Vereen, Super Bowl, Tom Brady

The NFL media are already moving on to the offseason, but I wanted to go through the coaching tape of the Super Bowl and have some things to say before I take a little break and start preparing for the next year.

It might seem an odd place to start, given that one of the things I do as a writer is create narratives around games, but the first thing I want to look at is the narrative surrounding Tom Brady and complain. To me it seems reductive and absurd to place as much emphasis on how many Super Bowls a quarterback wins when weighing his career as has been done since Brady won his fourth. There is no doubt that Brady has had an amazing career, and deserves to be in the conversation with the very best who have played the game, but his legacy should not rest quite so heavily on whether an undrafted rookie corner back makes a great interception at the end of the game or not. The game of American football is one of teams and coaches, and whilst playing quarterback is one of the most complex tasks we ask of an athlete, and there is perhaps no more important single player on the field of play, the quarterback simply cannot win games on their own even if they can possibly lose them. Just look at what happened to Aaron Rodgers this year, or Dan Marino across his career for evidence of how outstanding quarterback play doesn’t guarantee you a Super Bowl ring, Peyton Manning would have a few more if it did.

The other frustration coming out of the Super Bowl was the narrative surrounding the Seahawks play call that led to Russell Wilson throwing an interception from the Patriots’ one yard line with twenty six seconds left on the clock. Now I don’t like the call, and running the ball would seem to be the answer in this situation when you have one of the great power backs in the game, but it was Pete Carroll’s aggressive nature that got them into the position to win this game, as how many coaches would have had the conversation he did with Russell Wilson with six seconds left in the first half and agree to throw the ball to try to get the touchdown and risk not getting any points, so it shouldn’t be a surprise when he makes another aggressive call. You can’t divorce the result from the call when evaluating a play, but given the sensationalist nature of society which seems to mean that everything is either the best or worst thing to have happened, ever… then call maybe wasn’t as bad as some would have you believe. Still, you run the ball there don’t you? I would.

So what did I learn from watching the game back on film? Well everybody is saying that this was an instant classic, and I agree. We had two well coached teams that played to very high standard, and who gave us an exciting close game that went back and forth. Either team could have won, and with a few different bounces of the ball could have done so.

The first big story of the game for me was health, and specifically that of the Seattle defence. As people have be tweeting and writing, it wasn’t so much the Legion of Boom as the Legion of Wound. We already knew that Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas were injured, and Kam Chancellor came into the game with a knee injury, but all three injuries were more serious than they were letting on and are facing various surgeries this offseason. In the actual game they all played very well, with perhaps a few occasions where Rob Gronkowski got away from Chancellor enough to make plays being the most obvious effect. However, it was the cumulative effect of the injuries on defence that got them in the end.

In the first quarter the Seahawks couldn’t get anything going on offence, and so their defence spent a lot of time on the field, holding true to Caroll’s bend don’t’ break philosophy and coming up with a huge end zone pick when Brady let fly with a pass vaguely intended for Julian Edleman. The pass was not a good one, but this play almost turned the game in the Patriots favour in a strange way. Jeremy Lane took a couple of steps back to drop into a zone coverage, and intercepted the ball, but on the ensuing run back he landed awkwardly, breaking both bones in his forearm and putting him out of the game.

As a result of this, Tharold Simon came into the game as the nickel corner, although it was Byron Maxwell who slid in to cover the slot receiver with Simon on the outside. This in of itself might not have been a problem, as he did well when matched up against Brandon LaFell going deep, but he did not have the lateral quickness to keep with the shifty Edleman. This being the well coached game that it was, Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels were not going to miss this opportunity, and you could frequently see Edleman coming across the field with Smith trailing behind him. This use of slot receiver style quick underneath routes both attacked the weak areas of the Seahawks scheme and played to the strength of Brady.

The other injury on the Seahawks defence that helped the Patriots offensive performance was the loss of Cliff Avril in the third quarter, slowing a pass rush that was already struggling to reach Brady. The Patriots o-line did enough to keep the passing game working, but it was the quick drops and passes by Brady that won this game. The Patriots couldn’t run the ball except occasionally when it was setup by the pass, but the accumulation of these injuries to the Seahawks defence helped enable it.

So if the defence of the Seahawks couldn’t stifle the Patriots enough to win, what happened on the other side of the ball? This year’s Patriots defence was the best they’ve had for years and their secondary was more than enough to cope with the Seahawks’ starters. In fact for most of the game, the Seahawks moved the ball in bursts. Their running game was pretty effective, although I was surprised that they didn’t run Rusell Wilson more, but they struggled to maintain drives. However, for a while it did look like the MVP was going to be a receiver who had never caught a pass in the NFL before this game.

The six foot five Chris Matthews announced himself in the biggest game of his career with a forty-four yard catch over the five foot ten Kyle Arrington, and this match up was such a problem that Arrington ended up coming out of the game for Malcolm Butler, and Brandon Browner begged for the assignment of covering the tall Seattle receiver. Matthews caught the touchdown that tied up the scores at half time, and finished the game with over one hundred yards receiving and that touchdown, but he did struggle once the Patriots adjusted. That said, the Seahawks really should have won this game, even if the Patriots did have the upper hand for arguably three quarters.

It will be interesting to see how Pete Carroll picks up the pieces of the aftermath of this game, and build a team next season having lost coaches and with everyone second guessing that play call.

The Patriots will probably roll on, but they have their own offseason moves to make, and at some point Tom Brady might stop being able to do this.

I am going to ease off a bit as we head into the offseason as I want to do a self scout of what I did with the blog this year and come up with ways to improve for next season.

I will leave you with three plays that jumped out on me as I watched the tape. I’ll begin with the first Juliain Edleman catch against Simons, where he started as the outside receiver, ran a drag route across the field, caught the ball and went for twenty-three yards. Second was a screen to Shane Vereen that caught my eye as I was generally unimpressed by the Patriots o-line in the run game, but centre Bryan Stork did a really good job of getting out to the linebacker on this play so Vereen could go down the sideline.

The final play that stands out, in a year of impossible catches, was Jermaine Kearse catching that deep ball, despite Butler making a good play on the ball and it bouncing off three parts of Kearse’s body before he was able to reel it in. It may not have been better than the Odell Beckham catch, but it’s a pretty good way to leave the 2014 season.

Super Bowl Preview

01 Sunday Feb 2015

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Bill Belichick, Brandon Browner, Darelle Revis, Earl Thomas, Jamie Collins, Kam Chancellor, Marshawn Lynch, New England Patriots, NFL, Pete Carroll, Richard Sherman, Rob Gronkowski, Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks, Super Bowl, Tom Brady

It has been a very strange build up to the Super Bowl, with the news dominated by the seemingly endless leaks regarding deflated footballs, except we don’t actually know yet if the balls were deliberately tampered with, just that they were under the regulated pressure. Right now I can’t bring myself to care too much about it as I want to be looking at the upcoming game which should be a fascinating contest. What I will say is that yet again the NFL is demonstrating that even though they are a billion dollar business, that regulation and investigation does not seem to be their forte. I cannot understand why this investigation is being allowed to go on for so long and overshadow the showcase game of the football season.

The Super Bowl will be fascinating contest between contrasting teams and coaches, who will approach the games in different ways, but there are also a number of similarities.

The Patriots are famously adaptable, and it would be foolish for anyone to attempt to pre-empt what Bill Belichick has planned for this game. The Patriots dynasty has been built on Belichick’s attention to detail and the way he prepares his team to do whatever it is that he believes will win the game that week. It was interesting to her Ross Tucker on his podcast talk about one of the ways that this attention to detail manifests itself, in that rather than talking about the need to say run the ball against a particular team, Belichick would say there were three key things to win a game such as stopping a particular receiver running crossing routes on third down. Not only would he identify these specific key battles, but the players would be drilled so that when this situation occurred in the game, the players knew precisely what they had to do.

If Belichick’s teams are defined by their adaptability and tactical ingenuity, then Pete Carroll deliberately keeps his system straight forward as he believes in keeping his players unencumbered by the system so they can play faster. That’s not to say that he isn’t running a modern playbook, but part of the philosophy that he believes is key to success is to limit the number of reads a player has to make so they can be free to play.

However, even though they have their philosophical differences, there are similarities between Belichick and Carroll as both are defensive minded coaches, who’ve worked through a similar era, and have failed as head coaches before they attained success. What’s more, discussing Pete Carroll made Bill Belichick unusually verbose during this year’s media day, as he said that looking at Carroll from afar had made him a better coach, a rare complement from the famously tight lipped Belichick.

This should be a tight game as we have two very closely matched teams, who both had slightly stuttering starts, but as their personnel coalesced and got healthy managed incredibly strong runs. They have differing personalities that reflect their coaches, with the Patriot players staying tight lipped on message, where as the Seahawks are given the freedom to be themselves and so are a much loser group as a result. Neither are necessarily fan favourites with the repeated wining and various pushing of the rules by the Patriots leading them to hated in a lot of quarters, whilst the brashness of some of the Seahawks can rub people the wrong way and there have been a number of PED suspensions for this team. However, both are undeniably well coached, and whilst the game may not be the offensive spectacle that some would desire, there should be some fascinating football to watch.

Perhaps the unit to discuss in this game is the Seahawks defence, who if you stop to listen to its players is the best of all time. It is so hard to compare units across the ages, and so I’m not sure I would go that far, but this unit is very, very good. They ended the season on top of the DVOA stats and led the league in both points and yards allowed through the regular season. The defining part of this unit is their secondary, the legion of boom, three of whom are as good as any player in their league if not the best. They are most know for their three deep zone coverage, with Earl Thomas roaming the field as the deep safety, both corners locking down their respective sides of the field and Kam Chancellor stalking the centre of the field looking for the big hit. The front seven do not blitz that often, but by default align as a 4-3 under defence, meaning that the lineman slide to the side so that the strong side linebacker can line up over the tight end. From this alignment they will be aggressive, with the majority of the front seven have one gap assignments, meaning they can push up the field to make the play, but they won’t be trying to trick the Patriots with complex pressure packages. They will trust their system to cope with what the Patriots will throw at them.

So what will the Patriots throw at them? If the Seahawks are defined by their defence, then the Patriots are characterised by their offence, and their quarterback who is playing to win his fourth Super Bow at his sixth attempt. The question is how will they attempt to attack this defence, and a couple of way have been suggested. One thing that they won’t do is challenge the Seahawks on the outside as they don’t have the explosive kind of receivers to do this. In fact, as good as both team’s secondarys are, they’re almost wasted on the receiving corps that they are facing in this game. One way to challenge a zone system is to attack the seams in between the zones, and with a tight end like Rob Gronkowski this would look like a definite possibility. The other thing I’ve repeatedly heard suggested is given that both Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas are carrying injuries, that the Patriots could use the short passing game to move the ball and test their ability to make tackles, this seems to be popular as last time these teams met the Patriots ran over fifty passing plays. That said, as much as Tom Brady loves running long drives of ten to fifteen plays, chipping away at the defence, this is not the team that you want to be trying this against as they are just too good. However, if there is one area that you can attack the Seahawks, it might be in the run game as since losing defensive tackle Brandon Mebane to injury, they don’t have that top level run stuffer in the middle of the defensive line. The truth is though, that perhaps more than any other team, we won’t know what the plan is until we see it, and even then it is very likely to change throughout the game. That is the flexibility that Belichick and Brady to the game.

The Seahawks however, are a lot more of a defined prospect on offence. Although Pete Carroll is not afraid to be aggressive and is fond of the odd trick play, the bread and butter of this team is the run game. This is partly out of necessity as the Seahawks’ receivers are not a dynamic unit, but mainly because the duel threat of Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson is so very hard to defend. In Lynch the Seahawks have an amazingly physical runner, whose yards after contact numbers are almost absurd compared to the rest of the league. The duel threat comes from the read-option that they run, and Wilson’s ability to make the right decision and challenge the edges of the run defence. Like any system, there are benefits and drawbacks to the read-option, and one that I particularly dislike is the punishment it leaves your quarterback open to if they keep the ball and take the hit. However, if you watch Wilson when he runs the ball, he very rarely takes a hit as he is brilliant at getting the yards available and getting down or out of bounds before the hit comes. In fact in general Russell Wilson’s decision making is excellent, and the Seahawks have done a brilliant job of making the most out of his skill set whilst working round his limitations, as given how tall Wilson is you could not make him a pocket passer.

The Patriots defence has been much improved this year despite losing Jerod Mayo for the year in week six and not getting a great year out of Vince Wilfork. They retooled their secondary in the off season, and have caused many teams a problem by using the newly acquired Brandon Browner and a safety to bracket the top receiver, and leaving their other free agent signing Darelle Revis to lock up the second receiver. This is the exact opposite approach to the Seahawk corners playing their sides, and one of the fascinating parts of this game will be watching how the Patriots’ secondary play. The cover two defence, was in part created to defend the read-option attack, but it is not something that the Patriots use, or many teams in the NFL these days so it will be interesting to see what Belichick and his staff come up with. One of the key players in run defence could be Jamie Collins, who runs as well as any linebacker in the league and could be used to spy Russell Wilson, and Collins actually has the athletic ability to chase him down Wilson if he does keep the ball. The problem is that the Patriots have been vulnerable to the run at times this season and this is not the team that you would want to face with that weakness, as Lynch could just keep ploughing the ball up the gut to see if the Patriots can stop it for the whole game.

I am really looking forward to this game as it should be a very competitive, and importantly well coached, that is too close to call. Whoever wins this game looks to secure a legacy with the Seahawks trying to win back to back Super Bowls, and the Patriots looking to get Belichick and Brady their fourth. Neither feat has been achieved for many years. I look forward to watching it live as a fan, and going through the coaching tape next week to write the final blog of the 2014 season.

The Week Before the Super Bowl

24 Saturday Jan 2015

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DeflateGate, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, NFL, Seattle Seahawks

It has been a slightly odd week post the Conference Championship games, a mixture of the break in routine and the stories floating round has made things feel a little out of synch. I’m going to go through the games from the weekend and some of the other major stories floating round, but will look at the Super Bowl next week.

It feels like a slightly odd week to be trying to add value when there is such focused coverage, and the Pro Bowl is the only game of football this week. A game incidentally, that I have never watched before, although I may watch it back on rewind next week. The major story after the games has been the woefully monikered deflategate, but let’s look at the actual games first.

The first game of the day was a pretty one sided affair for fifty-five minutes, that exploded into an improbable comeback and eventual win for the Seahawks. The majority of the focus has been on the failed onside kick recovery, but there was more to this loss than that as some have been writing. The Packers were pretty dominant for the first fifty-five minutes, but the seeds of their downfall were sown as early as the first quarter. Twice in the first quarter the Packers drove down to the Seattle one yard line, but came away with only a field. I can understand kicking the first field goal, but you need to think about going for it on fourth down the second time you are down there as one of the key things in modern football is red-zone efficiency. More than that though, even if you fail you to convert, you pin the opposition against their own yard line so the down side is not that bad.

The real problem with the field goals, was it spoke of the conservative approach that Mike McCarthy and his team brought to this game, and when you add to the one touchdown scored out of the first three trips to the red-zone, an incredibly conservative approach to running the clock out, a defender who just gave himself up after the final interception, not testing Richard Sherman when he was playing cornerback with one arm, successfully disarming the Seattle offence for most of the game then going into a prevent defence, and meekly trotting up the field to kick a field goal rather than go for the touchdown when you have Aaron freaking Rodgers… well we know what happened.

You have to give the Seahawks credit for their part in the comeback, but even on their overtime touchdown the Packers were for some reason play zero safety so there was no one over the top to help. Their excellent secondary was nicked up with Earl Thomas dislocating his shoulder and only coming back in the second half once it had been strapped up, and Sherman’s injury in the fourth quarter. But what was worse for the Seahawks, was that their offence really didn’t get going until these last few moments. Apart from a few glimpses from Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks had done very little and Russell Wilson was having a nightmare, he threw four interceptions, fumbled the ball, and still came away with the win. He will need to play a lot better than that next week if he wants to win his second Super Bowl.

If the first game had amazing drama, then the second had an old fashioned thrashing. You have to give the Colts the credit they deserve for winning the two playoff games that they did, but just as they were making us question the distrust of their talent, they got battered by the Patriots. I wrote about the Patriots mutable nature when it comes to game planning, but in this one Belichick and his staff were definitely working on a plan of if it’s not broke, don’t fix it. The Patriots ran up over 170 yards of rushing in this game, with LeGarrette Blount repeatedly looking as if he had nowhere to go, but as Colts defenders over pursued he was able to get yards. The Colts clearly still have a lot of work to do if they are going to build a team capable of winning a Super Bowl around their clearly amazing quarterback, as they will need to compete with the NFL elite to have a chance of doing this and the roster is not ready for this yet.

If the game itself was a very one sided affair with not a huge amount to write about, the aftermath has seen a flurry of words and outrage when it was revealed on Monday that a number of the balls used by the Patriots’ offence were under the official designated pressure. This would make the ball easier to grip and therefore to throw and catch, but let’s be honest, this had no effect on the result of this game. The problem right now is perception as this is not the first time the Patriots have been embroiled in an issue of cheating, but the truth is we don’t know what happened and whilst the NFL doesn’t exactly have the best track record in investigation, we really don’t have much choice but to let the investigation run its course.

The Super Bowl is going to be a fascinating matchup between two teams that really divide opinion amongst fans, but I’ll look at that more next week.

NFL Conference Championship Preview

18 Sunday Jan 2015

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Baltimore Ravens, Carolina Panthers, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, NFL, Peyton Manning, Seattle Seahawks

My overriding emotion after last week’s games was one of sadness, and not because there are now only three competitive games left, but the way Peyton Manning and the Broncos played left me feeling down. I’ll take a look at the teams leaving us before examining the Conference Championship games.

The were a lot more points scored in the first game of the weekend than I was expecting, but to take a fourteen point lead, have the Patriots level the score, get another fourteen point lead, the Patriots level once more, then take another lead, and yet finally lose the game must really hurt. The Ravens were able to move the ball well, running for over a hundred yards and passing effectively, but Joe Flacco threw two interceptions. On both of these, the safety came down to intercept balls thrown to Torrey Smith. What I didn’t know was that the first interception came whilst the Ravens were running a play that had worked in the first quarter, but flipped to the other side. If you get a chance, watch this video on the Patriots website with Belichick breaking down some key plays from the game, it’s one of the more fascinating tape segments you’ll see all year, and I owe a thanks to the excellent Michael Carlson for tweeting the link. The part that surprised me about this game was the defence, with the Terrel Suggs and Elvis Doomerville having quiet games, but whilst the Patriots were very pass heavy, Brady was getting the ball out of his hands before the pass rush could get there.

The Ravens are going to be a very good football team again next year, they have a lot of players already in place, are keeping their coaching team in tact, and they can reinforce the secondary as well as get players back. I’m getting worried already.

The Panthers gave a really good account of themselves in a really difficult place to play, but this game demonstrated that they are a team on the up rather than one pushing for a championship. There was more scoring in this game than I was expecting, but at the end of the day they simply were not talented enough to compete with the Seahawks when it mattered most. This will be an interesting offseason for them as they will have a little more cap room to play with, but the Cam Newton contract will be key, and to a large extent determine how they continue to build this team going forward.

The Cowboys benefited from officiating in their Wildcard game, and then suffered in this one, although the rule as it is currently written was enforced correctly. I thought Dez Byant had made the catch, although the bobble at the end made me think he was down inside the one. However, as soon as I saw the ball move on the replay I thought it would be overturned. This is the problem with replay, as whilst you want calls to be right, and replay helps you get this, as fans we want to see football plays and Dez Bryant made an excellent play. In fact, the Cowboys played really well in this came and could have won it.

There was not a lot of pressure up the middle from the Cowboys’ defence, but Rod Marinelli really took advantage of Rodgers limited mobility and there were several times when you could see huge spaces that he couldn’t run into. However, once the Packers adjusted in the second half, putting more receivers on the field to spread the defence, Rodgers was able to move the ball through the air and finished the game with over three hundred yards passing.

The Broncos fell out of the playoffs with a limp display that has led to the firing of Jon Fox. There are questions surrounding Peyton Manning’s arm strength, the extent of his leg injury, and whether he will come back next season. Selfishly I would like to see him come back as I still enjoy watching him play, when he’s not facing the Bengals, and as recently as three games ago he managed a terrifying third quarter in Cincinnati that makes me think that if can get injury free, he can still be effective. However, whether he can get that healthy, stay there, and still has the will power to go through everything required to play football only he will know. As much as anything, I would like a better end to his amazing career than this damp squib of game.

Whilst Manning struggled, so did the rest of the team. One of the few bright sparks was CJ Anderson who managed eighty yards on eighteen carries, and whilst there several drives that consisted of short runs on first and second down with a missed fade pass on third down, given Manning’s struggles in the pass game and these figures, a commitment to the run game could have kept the game closer. The big surprise for me on the other side of the ball however, was how little pass rush Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware managed as they managed no sacks and barely any pressure. This is a good team, but with so many free agents and now coaching upheaval, in addition to the status of Peyton Manning, the offseason could be something of a soap opera in Denver.

But enough of the teams that have left us, there are three more games to go so let’s get to the Conference Championship games:

Packers @ Seahawks

DVOA Packers Seahawks

Overall:                       4^th                                1^st
Offensive:                   1^st                                4^th
Defensive:                   18^th                             1^st
Special Teams:            30^th                              17^th

The Seahawks very much took care of business last week, scoring more points than I thought they would whilst conceding more. In truth they got less out of Marshawn Lynch in the running game than I was expecting, but Russell Wilson was solid in the passing game and added twenty-two yards of rushing. They may not be a unit full of high-powered names, but the Seahawks skill players are playing very solid football and Russell Wilson continues to impress as a quarterback. They will be hoping to have a better day in the run game, but the Packers defence is not as fearsome prospect as the Panthers have been in recent weeks and they could have some success.

The Packers defence had some worrying moments last week, and whilst it was a great play by Julius Peppers to knock the ball out, it did look like DeMarco Murray was about to rip off a huge run with the defence opening up before him. In fact the Cowboys moved the ball pretty well and were certainly able to run the ball. This is perhaps not surprising as they were only ranked twenty-fourth in rush defence by DVPA through the regular season and this could be a real problem for them in Lynch get going.

The Packers are constructed for their defence to do enough to win, relying on their excellent offence, but in this game they are facing the best defence left in the playoffs, and probably the best in recent week. The Seahawks got some of their linebackers back and have been playing great defence for weeks now. Their secondary is incredibly strong with Kam Chancellor having an amazing game last week, demonstrating amazing agility to leap over the line in an attempt to block a field goal as well as getting a pick six. It will be interesting to see how they do against a Packers team who did not throw to Richard Sherman’s side of the field in their meeting on opening day back in September, but who have come on a long way since then. I would expect them to be aggressive early in the pass rush to test Aaron Rodgers movement and see if they can disrupt him in the passing game.

The Packers offence is different to where it was at the start of the season. Their o-line has coalesced and changed since the start of the season and has been playing excellent football. However, there is marked difference in the Packers home and away performance, and it has been talked and written that at home they are able to go through a number of plays to find the right one due to how quiet the stadium is. This is very much not going to be the case in one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL. The other problem for the Packers is that Aaron Rodgers played brilliantly last week on one leg, but it was clear that his calf injury was forcing him to play a different game, and whilst he could get away with this against the Cowboys defence, I’m not sure he will able to this week. You might think that it would be a good idea to rely on the run more to protect him, but although the Seahawks defence is famed for its secondary, they are still ranked second by DVOA in rush defence, which is in fact one place higher than their pass defence. There were some moments from Eddie Lacy, but he didn’t look that impressive for stretches of last week’s game and the Packers could do with a big game from him. However, in the passing game, whilst they did not get a strong game from Jordy Nelson last week, this didn’t matter as they got one hundred yard games out of Randall Cobb and Davante Adams so if they can spread the field again, maybe they can find a matchup they like,

This will be a fascinating game that I suspect the Seahawks will win due to their home field advantage and the difference in the way the Packers play away from home.

Colts @ Patriots

DVOA Colts Patriots

Overall:                       13^th                              2^nd
Offensive:                   19^th                              3^rd
Defensive:                   7^th                                12^th
Special Teams:            15^th                              7^th

There have been talks of a possible second passing of the torch game for the Colts this week, with Andrew Luck having beaten Peyton Manning and now facing Tom Brady.

The matchups in this game will be interesting because the Patriots as a team are so mutable, you never know what Belichick and his staff are planning. Last week they abandoned the run game in the second half, ran plays with four linemen, and dusted off an options play the type we haven’t seen from them in years. That said, earlier in the year they pounded the Colts using extra linemen and racked up 246 rushing yards that included a two hundred yard, four touchdown day for Jonas Gray who has barely been heard from since. We don’t know if Belichick will revert back to the run attack this week, or if he will try to do something else, so from a tactical point of view this will be a fascinating game.

The Patriots offence had to rely on deception to get the win against the Ravens last week, but the Colts are a different proposition. They have looked very good in the playoffs so far, but the Patriots will offer a far more balanced challenge, Although talk of his demise were premature, Tom Brady doesn’t have the same ability to go deep he had when Randy Moss was running those go patterns, but he does have receivers that suit this offence, and Rob Gronkowski is a matchup nightmare for every team in the NFL. That said, they will miss their centre Bryan Stork, and one of the first things to look for is whether the line problems the Patriots suffered at the start of the season will resurface as they have to shuffle this unit.

The Colts defence has looked excellent for two weeks in a row, but the Bengals were missing too many receivers for Andy Dalton to excel, and the Broncos were strangely limited even taking into account the issues affecting Peyton Manning. The Patriots may be shuffling their line so there could be issues, Brady has his weapons and this could stretch this defence. They played great as a unit last week, and Vontae Davis was all over the field, but the Patriots don’t really have a single threat for him to man up against and at six foot and two hundred pounds, he doesn’t really match up with Gronkowski. This has been a tough tackling unit that has been really well coached, but I wonder if they get exposed against the Patriots like they were earlier in the season, two hundred yards is a lot to give up in the running game.

The Patriots defence has been a talking point for its fans as it has been as good as they have had for a long time, but it didn’t exactly catch the eye last week. The secondary that has been much improved did manage to get two interceptions last week, but as unit they gave up a lot of points and go against another good unit this week. That said, the Colts offensive line is not as good as the Ravens and so there is more chance of the Patriots getting a sustained pass rush. It will be interesting to see how much of this will come from Jamie Collins who is excellent at both pass rushing and coverage. What he is doing could well be a key as to what the Patriots think is the priority in this game and how they plan to get to Andrew Luck.

This leads us nicely to the Colts offence, which is only slightly more than Andrew Luck. Up until a couple of weeks ago I was only really impressed with four Colts players and three of them play in this offence. I don’t know if Andrew Luck will supplant our current great quarterbacks as some have been saying, as there are just too many variables, but he has certainly started his career in spectacular fashion. The throw he made to Donte Moncrief against the Bengals with defensive linemen round his feet was nothing short of spectacular. I have been pretty impressed with two of his targets, but whilst TY Hilton has an amazing knack of getting open, he drops too many balls, and Luck’s numbers would be even more impressive if Hilton had held onto some more of the very catchable balls that he has dropped. That said, I have been very impressed with his tight end Coby Fleener who has caught fifty balls for seven hundred yards this season, and seems to be good for several big plays a game whenever I’ve watched the Colts. However, the problem is that their o-line is not very good and whilst they could triple team Carlos Dunlap against the Bengals, I think they will be challenged more this week. But then again, I thought that last week and it didn’t materialise against the excellent pass rushers of the Broncos so only time will tell.

I am not sure how this game is going to go, as my instinct says that the Patriots should take care of business at home, but their o-line shuffle worries me and the Colts have been on a real run recently. That said, I’m not that impressed with the talent spread against their roster, and whilst they have been coached really well and are playing very tough football, I can see them coming up short against the elite teams in the league, and the Patriots are very definitely one of those.

NFL Divisional Playoff Preview – Sunday Edition

11 Sunday Jan 2015

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Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, NFL

So last night we had one close and one not so close game. The Patriots eked out a 35-31 win despite being down by fourteen points twice, but the defence stiffened at the right times and managed to get two crucial interceptions from their safeties when Joe Flacco was throwing to Torrey Smith. In the second game the Panthers managed to keep it close for three quarters, but two interceptions were too much from Cam Newton who threw a pick six in the fourth quarter that sealed the game for the Seahawks.

So we know that the Patriots and Seahawks will be playing at home next week, so let’s have a look at who might be visiting them.

Cowboys @ Packers

DVOA: Cowboys Packers

Overall                        8^th                                3^rd
Offensive                    5^th                                1^st
Defensive                    21^st                              18^th
Special Teams             13^th                              21^st

The Sunday games open with probably the most iconic match up of the weekend as the self-proclaimed America’s team, the Dallas Cowboys, visit the Green Bay Packers.

In what has been something of a theme for the home teams this week, the Packers got off to a rocky 1-2 start to the season, with Aaron Rodgers telling Packers fans to, “R-E-L-A-X,” after their loss to the Lions. It would however prove to be sound advice, as they would only lose two more games over the rest of the season.

The Packers offence has at times been a thing of beauty this year, with their offensive line coming together in a way that has allowed everyone to shine. Aaron Rodgers put himself firmly in the discussion for the league MVP and is probably playing quarterback better than anyone else in the league right now. It was good to see Jordy Nelson finally get rewarded with a Pro Bowl berth given how well he has played over the last couple of season, and the Packers finally have a run game in the shape of Eddie Lacy. However, the big question in this game is the calf injury that Aaron Rodgers suffered in their final game against the Lions. He is promising that he will play this weekend, and he was effective throwing quick passes when he went back into the game against the Lions, but there is talk of a slight tear along with the significant strain. Rodgers has missed a lot of practice, but we won’t truly know what effect this will have until we seem him on the filed Sunday.

The Packers offence has been as good as anybody’s for several season, but the question has frequently been whether the defence can be good enough for them to go all the way. This was again the question for this unit earlier in the season, but moving Clay Matthews inside on early downs, and then returning him to the edge in passing downs seems to have solidified their run defence. The free agent addition of Julius Peppers at outside linebacker has also worked as he has looked as good as he’s done for years. They may only be ranked eighteenth by DVOA, but when your offence is ranked number one in the league then that could well be good enough.

The Cowboys have a tough task this week. They stuck to their guns in the only close game of last week, and managed to get the comeback amidst odd officiating whilst facing one of the best defensive units in the game. Assuming that Rodgers is effective, the problem for them this is that whilst they will have a much easier time running the ball, I don’t think they can rely on DeMarco Murray to grind out the game for them. The Packers offence is too explosive, and likely to put up too many points at home where Rodgers has been peerless, for the Cowboys to keep running the ball as I think this could allow the Packers to get away from them.

This all comes down to how Rodgers plays and whether the Cowboys can generate enough offence, as although their defences are not ranked that dissimilarly by DVOA, I have more faith in the Packers than I do in the Cowboys’ opportunistic unit.

Colts @ Broncos

DVOA: Colts Broncos

Overall                        13^th                              4^th
Offensive                    21^st                              6^th
Defensive                    10^th                              5^th
Special Teams             8^th                                27^th

The final game of the weekend is also one of the most intriguing as Peyton Manning welcomes his former team to Denver.

All the talk about the Broncos in recent weeks has been the health of Peyton Manning. He has not looked right for a number of weeks, and whilst the sight of Manning throwing wobbly balls is nothing new, there appears to be a lack of velocity that is finally causing issues. There is no doubting his mental ability, but the question is whether he body will allow him to do enough for the Broncos to the win. The good news is that the team are better prepared to deal with this now than they were last season. In recent weeks they have been relying on CJ Anderson in the run game, which has been effective behind a line that seems to have found a good line up in the secondary.

The Broncos defence was banged up last year going into the Super Bowl, but not only are they healthier right now, but their retooled secondary has been effective and the addition of DeMarcus Ware along with a healthy Von Miller has given them a fearsome pass rush. This has resulted in a unit that has leapt eleven places in defensive DVOA when you compare the 2013 regular season to this year, and you would think that they will be able to generate the pressure on Andrew Luck that the Bengals so singularly failed to get last week.

The Colts really took care of the Bengals, and looked good in patches, but I’m still not convinced by this team. Andrew Luck played a much cleaner game, cutting out the costly turnovers that has been plaguing him this season, and his numbers would have been even more impressive if his receivers hadn’t dropped very catchable balls. However, the Bengals offence was missing too many players to pose a credible long passing game so whilst the Colts looked good stopping the run, they could stack the box. They may not be scared of the long ball given how Manning is playing at the moment, but we are talking about one of the great quarterbacks to ever play the game and you would think he can find a way.

I would love to see Manning get a second Super Bowl Win, just to shut down the conversations surrounding how good he is. Success in the playoffs is such a matter of match ups, and there is so much variance in the standard NFL game, that whilst it is important I think too much is taken away from one of the great players in NFL history. That said, whilst he has often not had enough talent round him, it might be the case that he now has the team round him a season too late. It will be interesting to see how Andrew Luck goes, as he appears to be in a very similar situation as Manning in the early years, a great quarterback that possibly doesn’t have the team around him that he deserves, but this should be a fascinating end to the weekend’s games.

NFL Divisional Playoff Preview – Saturday Edition

10 Saturday Jan 2015

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Baltimore Ravens, Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots, NFL, Seattle Seahawks

There was only one close game over the wildcard weekend, but for the most I still found it enjoyable, although it was another painful end for the Bengals. In a league where only one team wins it all, thirty one teams end in disappointment so lets take a moment to say goodbye to the four teams we lost before going on to look at this week’s games.

As was feared, the Cardinals ran out of steam with too many players injured and a disastrous third string quarterback that couldn’t move the ball. What I didn’t expect was the dreadful performance of Cardinals’ punter Drew Butler, which you can ill afford if your offensive is not moving the ball. There was only so much that Bruce Arians and his staff could do despite the excellent job they have done all year.

The Steelers felt the loss of Le’Veon too much to get the balance they needed in the offence and their defence couldn’t play up to the level they needed to win this game. It would seem a overhaul is required in the Steelers secondary with Ike Taylor and Troy Polamalu coming to the end of storied careers, and Michael Mitchell has not been convincing all season and was not good in this one.

The most painful paragraphs of this whole blog are these concerning the departure of the Bengals for another season. All I wanted from this season for it to be a success, was for the playoff drought to finally end. However, this was not a healthy year with major pieces of both the offence and defence injured, but the major issues being discussed after the game were the usual questions surrounding Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton.

I think people often underestimate the huge turn around Lewis has affected in Cincinnati, who for years were dreadful. He has created the structures that enabled this team to become one of the most talented in the league, who now draft consistently and considered one of the better teams in the league at this. There’s no getting around the game management and tactical issues that people raise, but he is by far not the only coach who suffers from these problems and I don’t see a coach that makes me leap out and say they should replace him. I also believe in consistency and given the injuries, plus the breaking in of two new co-ordinators I feel like another season is more than fair. There simply aren’t that many teams who have made the playoffs every year for the last four, yet alone in a division as competitive as the AFC North.

As for Andy Dalton, he is not as good as Andrew Luck, but then few quarterbacks are. Nor have many won forty games in their first four seasons or taken their team to the playoffs in each of those seasons. The big game jitters are a worry, but with something more like his full set of weapons and a burgeoning run game that is part of a coordinator’s plan to help him, Dalton can win games. The contract is not the horror that is frequently quoted, and after next season he is pretty easy to cut from a salary cap point of view. However, I think a second year working with Hue Jackson will see improvements, and even a functional quarterback is not easy to come by so the question for those who would get rid of him is, and replace him with whom? I would much rather have the Bengals’ current quarterback situation than say, the Bears.

The final team leaving this week were the lions, whose own playoff woes rival the Bengals with twenty-three seasons separating them from their last playoff win, and an eight playoff game losing streak that is tied for the longest in the league. If there are questions about Andy Dalton, then surely more must be made of Mathew Stafford who is now 0-17 in road games where the opposing team finished with a winning record. This might be one of those slightly made up stats, but it speaks to the mistakes that pepper his game, and whilst he has tantalising physical skills that allow him to make some amazing plays, he had ample support from his defence this year and still couldn’t get the win this weekend. Unfortunately, the offence just wasn’t good enough and it will be interesting to see what happens to this team in the offseason, particularly with Suh on his way.

So having waved goodbye to four more teams, we should take a look at what should be a brilliant set of games.

Ravens @ Patriots

DVOA: Ravens Patriots

Overall                        5^th                                2^nd
Offensive                    9^th                                3^rd
Defensive                    6^th                                11^th
Special Teams 2^nd        2^nd                                5^th

The Ravens will be heading to New England knowing that they have beaten the Patriots in the playoffs on the road, and will have no fear of them.

The Patriots got off to a rocky start this season, but we should have known better than to question if this was the end of the Brady/Belichick era as having gone 2-2 and losing heavily to the Chiefs on Monday night football, the Patriots won seven straight and finished the season 12-4.

The Patriots offence struggled to begin with, as protection issues meant that Tom Brady did not get the protection he needed, but these got cleared up and as Rob Gronkowski got better over the course of the season so did the offence. They don’t have the classical receiving corp that one would expect for such a high ranked offence, but the structure of the routes in this offence does not demand that and they are a threat to whatever defence they face. The Ravens defence has been good, but they were only twentieth by DVOA in the regular season against tight ends, so the Patriots may well be able to make very good use of Gronkowski in this game. They will need to as the real weakness for the Ravens is their secondary, but if there is a shortcoming in the Patriots offence, it is that they don’t have the receivers to stretch the field and take advantage of this, but I wouldn’t bet against Brady taking the short passes he can get and slowly whittling away to beat the Ravens.

If it is business as usual for Brady and the offence, things have looked a lot better for the Patriots defence this year. They reconfigured their secondary, and server times this season they double teamed the opposition’s best receiver and smothered their second receiver with Darelle Revis who really returned to from this season. They have made great use of Akeem Ayers, who has been a revelation since his trade from the Titans, and they’ve been effective in both the pass and run game, improving their overall ranking by nine places from last season, and giving Brady the support that he has been missing for a number of years.

That said, the Ravens offence has also improved a lot this year under new coordinate Gary Kubiak as I mentioned last week. That said, whilst they did enough to win last week, there are questions about Tory Smith’s fitness and Eugene Mornoe is listed as questionable and could be a huge miss for the Ravens. However, Joe Flacco maintained his impressive record in the playoff, but it will be interesting to see what his receivers can do against the Patriots secondary..

The Ravens’ secondary may be questionable, but they did okay last week and there front seven are really good. In Suggs and Doomerville they have two outstanding edge rushers, but the real problem for Brady could be Haloti Ngata, who gets excellent pressure through the middle and could really cause Brady problems this week.

I still expect the Patriots to win this week, but no one would be surprised if the Ravens nick it and I think this should be one hell of a game.

Panthers @ Seahawks

DVOA: Panthers Seahawks

Overall                        11^th                              1^st
Offensive                    18^th                              4^th
Defensive 3^rd                                1^st
Special Teams 29^th                              19^th
The Seahawks season were another team that had a shaky start to the season that they turned around, although this time it was on the defensive side of the ball. However, in the opening game of the season they looked excellent as they battered the Packers at home and everyone though the Champions would be strong all year.

However, there were problems on defence with players adjusting to new roles on the defensive line and injuries at linebackers meaning they had young players out there. As the season continued they got players, and for weeks now they have looked like the terrifying team from last year and they managed to finish 12-4 to get the number one seed.

The Seahawks offence is built around the run game, but whilst they are deficient in receivers, yet Russell Wilson continues to impress with both his arms and legs. There doesn’t need to be too much written about how good Marshawn Lynch is, but he’ll need to set the tone for the Seahawks offence to be effective.

The Panthers have played the Seahawks close in their last few meetings, but these have all be in Carolina, I can see this as being a close game as the Panthers have a defence that can keep the Seahawks close, but I don’t fancy anyone to go into Seattle and win.

This could particularly be the case as Cam Newton still misses too many simple throws that you have to convert to compete with the best teams. It is rare that you will see a good quarterback with such little touch, everything is just fired in. It also doesn’t help that they lost rookie defensive tackle Star Lotulelei to a broken foot that he picked up in training this week. His numbers may not be amazing, but he had really come on late in the season and he protected Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly so they could make plays at the linebacker position.

I wouldn’t write of the Panthers, but they are the team that I would be most surprised about if they won.

NFL Wildcard Preview

03 Saturday Jan 2015

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Arizona Cardinals, Baltimore Ravens, Carolina Panthers, Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Indianapolis Colts, NFL, Pittsburgh Steelers, Wildcard Weekend

I got up early on Monday to watch the condensed Bengals at Steelers without knowing the score, and was thoroughly miserable about the result, so it was with some reluctance that I went through the final sheet of my picks spreadsheet. However, thanks to the late games, I managed to pull two games back on Dan, and so despite being behind for most of the season I managed to pull out a one game win. This happiness lasted for an hour or two before my worry about the upcoming weekend began to set in.

Still, we now come to the part of the year where I get to see all the games so let’s take a look at the upcoming Wildcard Weekend.

Cardinals @ Panthers

DVOA: Cardinals Panthers

Overall 22^nd                              25^th
Offensive 23^rd                              20^th
Defensive 7^th                                15^th
Special Teams 21^st                              30^th

There are times when trying to follow an entire league where you get things wrong. The human brain is used to looking for patterns and narratives, and we are also used to putting labels on things and leaving them there. In something as complicated as sport this can be a problems as we often try to fit a narrative to random events, but it is also possible to miss the development of a team across the season if you are not watching carefully enough. I have seen every play of the Bengals season so far, but it is simply not possible for me to do this for thirty-two teams. Looking back, I still had the impression I got watching the Panthers in week six in mind when I wrote about them last week, and this is despite going through the coaching tape that told a different story in week nine.

I went back and watched them beat up on the Falcons in the final game of the season to get them into the playoffs, and I think is going to be an interesting game. The Panthers are playing better football now than they were in mid-season. The defence has really come together with a physical front seven that is now getting a pass rush, and a young secondary that seems to have coalesced into a functional unit. They may only be ranked fifteenth by DVOA, but I would suggest they are playing better than that currently and they are an impressive unit.

On offence, the Panthers seem to have carved themselves an identity as a running team. They use multiple run options from within the same play, and I’m amazed at how much Cam Newton is running considering that it really isn’t that long ago that he sustain fractures to part of his back in a car crash. He is still firing the ball in the passing game, but there is a little more touch, but mainly there seems to be a coherent identity that is working for this team. They are going up against a run defence that is ranked seventh in the league, but that did give up a pair of two hundred yard games at the end of the season so they may be able to make this work in this game.

The Cardinals have limped their way into the playoffs, and despite having an 11-5 record, this is going to be a much closer game than the gap in regular season win total might suggest. The Cardinals coaching staff have done a brilliant job in coping with injuries, but having powered away to a 9-1 start, their season has limped home and it looks like the week fifteen injury to Drew Stanton was a quarterback too far.

The Cardinals have struggled in the run game for most of the year, but having first lost their vertical passing game when Carson Palmer went down for a second and final time, the loss of Drew Stanton has seriously hampered this unit. Whilst Ryan Lindley can make some good looking throws, he also routinely makes bad decisions and is 0-2 as a starter for the Cardinals, whilst throwing two touchdowns to four interceptions. He will be going against a physical defence that I suspect will be able to get turnovers against a young and inexperienced quarterback.

The defence has been the foundation of the Cardinals season, and ranked inside the top ten by DVOA for most of the season. It is a unit that uses a large number of defensive backs and pressure to force mistakes and cover the modern passing game. They rely on their corners standing up in outside coverage so they can frequently blitz and this pressure has only increased as defensive coordinator Todd Bowles seems to have been given licence to take more risks given the issues the Cardinals are having on the offensive side of the ball.

I think that this should be a fascinating game between two teams with really good defences and I will be interested to see how the Cardinals cope with the Panthers running attack, and how they try to attack the Panthers defence.

Ravens @ Steelers

DVOA: Ravens Steelers

Overall                        5^th                                8^th
Offensive                    ^9th                                 2^nd
Defensive                    8^th                                30^th
Special Teams             2^nd                                12^th
The Saturday schedule is rounded out with what should be a bruising encounter between AFC North rivals.

The Steelers have had an erratic season with some huge wins, and horrible losses to bad teams, but they managed to win out in December to take the division. They have mainly done this behind an offence that is ranked second in the league by DVOA, and that can be truly terrifying. The problem is that a major cog in that offence, second year back Le’Veon Bell, who has looked like the best back in the league for long stretches of the season is going to miss this game with a knee injury he picked up in the final game against the Bengals. However, the way to attack this Ravens defence is through the air as their secondary has been hit hard by injuries, and the Steelers have the passing attack to do this. Whether they will be able to use the empty backfield sets with the running back split out as a receiver remains to be seen, but Antonio Brown is as good as any receiver in the league. The o-line has looked much more solid than has often been the case in recent Steelers seasons, and they will need to stand up in pass protection if they are going to have success this week.

Unusually for the Steelers, the defence has been the problem this season, ranked an uncharacteristic thirtieth by DVOA, they have been patchy with injuries and age apparently catching up with them. They have done okay in recent weeks and it has been noticeable that they have been leaving the younger secondary players in the line-up so they have consistent personnel rather than having the stalwarts Ike Taylor and Troy Polamalu go in and out the line-up whilst they have been struggling with injuries. It is a sign of the problems that the Steelers have had that they pulled James Harrison out of retirement, but whilst he has shown flashes of his old self and has managed five and a half sacks in eleven games, this is a defence that has been merely coping for large parts of the season.

The Ravens are an interesting team that for large parts of the season looked like the most complete team in the AFC North, but couldn’t quite overcome the problems they developed in the secondary to win the division.

On offence the Ravens have looked good for most of the year, working behind a rejuvenated running game that saw Justin Forsett gain 1266 yards for the season, and a very solid season in the passing game. Joe Flacco has quietly thrown for nearly four thousands yards, and more importantly has throw twenty-seven touchdowns with only twelve interceptions. Steve Smith has been struggled to maintain the early hot start he had, but managed to gain over a thousand yards receiving and added some fire to the offence to go with Torrey Smith and Owen Daniels. This turn around from a DVOA ranking of thirtieth last year demonstrates what a good hire Gary Kubiak was as offensive coordinator.

The problem for the Ravens down the stretch has been the number of injuries they’ve had in the secondary. They have got away with this to an extent as they haven’t really faced a tough passing attack but this is going to change this week. The Ravens will have to hope that the fearsome combination of Elvis Dummervil and Terrell Suggs as pass rushers will get enough pressure to disrupt Ben Roethlisberger and his receivers. It may well help that they are getting Haloti Ngata back from a four game suspension, particularly as the rookie tackle Timmy Jernigan who has been playing so well in Ngata’s absence will miss the game with a foot injury.

Whilst I would never discount the Ravens, I fear that their secondary will be exposed in this game and whilst Le’Veon Bell will be a huge miss for the Steelers, I think their passing game is more terrifying than anything the Ravens have to offer.

Bengals @ Colts

DVOA: Bengals Colts

Overall                        13^th                              12^th
Offensive                    18^th                              17^th
Defensive                    14^th                              13^th
Special Teams             6^th                                8^th
The Colts are an interesting case as if you look at the DVOA rankings, you would think this is a well balanced team. However, this is a team that is built on a couple of exceptionally good players that are masking what is to me an unconvincing roster. These are brave words considering the beating they gave the Bengals earlier in the season and how rotten the Bengals playoff results in recent years have been, but I will try to justify them below.

I’m not sure there is a team that relies more on their quarterback to win than the Colts. They have a running game that is ranked twenty-seventh in the league, and are a team who thought it was a good idea to trade a first round pick for Trent Richardson. This team goes where Andrew Luck takes them, but the o-line does not give him great protection and it is only because TY Hilton is amazing at getting open, and the support Coby Fleener and an ageing Reggie Wayne give in the passing game that Luck is able to drag them along. However, Luck has been throwing a lot of interceptions recently and has been having a big problem with fumbles. There is no question that Luck is a really good quarterback, but he can only overcome so much and this team ask him to do a lot.

On defence the Colts have played well in patches, and have a really good corner in Vontae Davis, but in truth I am surprised by their ranking by DVOA. That said, if you look at their record you can see problems against better teams as they got pounded by the Patriots in the run game, giving up 246 yards as part of five hundred yard day, and they gave up over six hundred yards against the Steelers. The Bengals have been running the ball really well recently behind rookie Jeremy Hill and they will need to hold up against this if they want to win.

The Bengals have coped pretty well since losing both coordinators from last year, but having said that it was a playoff win or bust this year, it all comes down to this game.

On offence, the talk of a commitment to the running game that there was in the offseason has solidified in recent weeks around a running game headed up by rookie Jeremy Hill with Giovani Bernard spelling him. There have been problems in the passing game with AJ Green battling injuries for large parts of the seasons and I suspect he will miss this game with a concussion. This is almost a microcosm of the problems this season as he’s been battling a bicep injury he sustained going for a ball that sailed on Andy Dalton, and picked up the concussion when trying to fight for yards at the end of the Steelers game. The problem with Andy Dalton is that whilst he has got his team into the playoffs for the first four years of his career, he can be inconsistent and these problems tend to surface in big games. That said, the Bengals looked good in getting their Monday night win against the Broncos, and new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is really helping Dalton succeed by focussing on the running game and asking him to do less, whilst it often felt like Jay Gruden was asking him to do too much in past years. The Patriots demonstrated that you can be physical and run on the Colts so hopefully this can work in this game.

On defence, the Bengals have slipped with the departure of Mike Zimmer to be head coach of the Vikings, and have struggled against the run for large parts of the season. They are top ten in pass defence, which is a measure of how good and deep their secondary is as the pass rush has been patchy all season. However, injuries at linebacker, particularly missing Vontaze Burfict for most of the season has really hurt them in the run game. The defence line has not been quite up to where it was last season, but Geno Atkins is still coming back to full form since his ACL injury and Margus Hunt has been out recently as they try to patch up the loss of Michael Geathers to the Buccaneers.

I think that the Bengals can finally win this game, and get revenge for the shut out loss earlier in the season. Both the Bengals and the Panthers came out flat the week after they played five quarters of football, and I think this contributed to the Bengals horrible loss against the Colts. If the Bengals can look after the ball and run the ball effectively, then they can finally get that playoff win and try to push on, but I would never count out a team with Andrew Luck at quarterback.

Lions @ Cowboys

DVOA: Lions Cowboys

Overall                        14^th                              6^th
Offensive                    19^th                              4^th
Defensive                    3^rd                                22^nd
Special Teams             31^st                              13^th
The final game of the weekend pits the Cowboys great offence against the Lions top notch defence.

The Cowboys finally got their winning season, but the overhaul on this team was not flashy, it was a sustained investment in the offensive line, which has resulted in one of the most impressive units in the league. The o-line enabled DeMarco Murray to break Emmitt Smith’s single season rushing record for the Cowboys and enabled him to become the only back to start the season with eight straight 100 yard games, breaking Jim Brown’s previous best of six. Not only have done this, but Tony Romo regularly gets such great protection that he can sit in the pocket for five or six seconds without having to worry about the oppositions pass rush. That said, they are going against the third ranked offense by DVOA, that will offer them a real challenge, but Romo has had more support than he’s ever had, and the results in the pass game have flourished alongside the running attack.

The Cowboys defence however, has been held together by smoke and mirrors all season, with co-ordinator Rod Marinelli crafting a credible defence with a dearth of talent. They are not spectacular, but they are playing hard for their coach who has been working overtime to create way to rush the passer and keep his team in games. This unit may be a problem if the Cowboys get deeper into the playoffs, but they might not be in this game.

The Lions have all the talent at the skill positions to be a good offence, even if Calvin Johnson has struggled with injury as they finally have a second receiver to go with him. In fact, Golden Tate has actually led the team in receiving yards and receptions this year, but the problem for this unit has been the o-line that has often struggled and this unit has never quite taken off except from when they’ve played the Bears. The other problem is that Matthew Stafford has never really convinced as a quarterback, and he has a habit of locking onto receivers, and whilst this is not exactly a bad plan when you are throwing to Calvin Johnson, it doesn’t necessarily win you the big game.

What has been winning games for this team has been the defence that I would have said was playing with more discipline this season. However, how Ndamukong Suh won his appeal having stomped on Aaron Rodgers I do not know. He has been part of a fearsome defensive line that has helped this defence lead the league in run defence by DVOA. They also have one of the league’s standout coverage linebackers in DeAndre Levy, and a pass defence that has been just as good as the rush defence.

This could very well be the game of the weekend, but I would think you just have to trust Tony Romo more than Mattew Stafford, who is 0-16 on the road against teams with a winning record. I’m not usually a fan of these kinds of statistics, but that one does seem to speak of a problem.

I’m really looking forward to this week’s games, so roll on the postseason football.

NFL Week 17 Picks

27 Saturday Dec 2014

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NFL, Week 17 Picks

It feels a little strange that we are heading into the final week of the regular season already. I had a hell of a time watching the Bengals last week, it doesn’t matter that he hasn’t played well for a couple of weeks now, Peyton Manning is still terrifying and the comeback in the third quarter was so dispiriting to watch. Still, the Bengals finally pulled one out on prime time national TV and they are in the playoffs, with a chance of revenge against the Steelers in the final week.

The picks competition is coming down to the wire, with Dan holding a game’s lead going into the final week, but the question is who is going to be playing all their players as we look at the final games of the regular season.

Gee: Week 16 7-9 Overall 119-121
Dan: Week 16 7-9 Overall 120-120

Bills @ Patriots (-3.5)

The Patriots have secured their twelfth consecutive double-digit win season and have secured themselves a first week bye in the playoffs. It was not pretty last week, but they got the job done despite the offensive line struggling in pass protection, which they have not done since the early part of the season. We will have to see how they go, but having looked through the last few seasons I don’t see any let up in the final game despite having a good record.

Last week the Bills needed a win to keep themselves in the playoff race having got a great win against the Packers in week fifteen, however they dropped the ball in a disappointing loss to the Raiders. The Bills came into the game with the number one ranked defence by DVOA, but gave up a surprising 140 yards on the ground and were unable to force a turnover. Unfortunately for the Bills their offensive problems continued, and having given up the fourth most quarterback hits this season this perhaps is not surprising, but they were unable to regain the lead having given it up in the first quarter. This is where giving up a future first round pick in the draft hurts as there is no doubting Sammy Watkins talent, but what this team needs is a quarterback to throw the ball to him, and they have one less way to address the need in the offseason.

The reason I’m already turning to the offseason for the Bills is that I don’t see them travelling to the Patriots and winning, they’re just too hampered on offence.

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

Bears @ Vikings (-6.5)

Who would have through at the start of the season that the Bears would be playing a meaningless game as six and half point underdogs against the Vikings. The loss against the Lions might have been more respectable, but that is more to do with the Lions up and down offence than any dramatic improvement by the Bears. It will be interesting to see how they go about turning this mess around, and what happens to Jay Cutler as he returns to the starting line-up following Jimmy Clausen’s concussion, but I don’t see anything changing in this game as this team is going to need work in the offseason to fix its problems.

The Vikings have quietly had a solid season in Mike Zimmer’s first year, and if they can improve the offensive line to give Teddy Bridgewater better protection then they could really make some noise next year. The points worry me in this game, but I think they will finish the season strongly at home against one of the most disappointing teams of the season.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Vikings

Browns @ Ravens (-8.5)

There is actually quite a lot to be positive about when you look at the Browns’ season given the improvement in their record and how long they stayed in the playoff hunt in a competitive AFC North. The problem is that the one thing they needed to do having been eliminated from the playoffs was get Johnny Manziel as much playing time as possible to see what you have. Unfortunately, a pulled hamstring won’t even allow them to do that, and given that Brian Hoyer is out of contact at the end of the season and what we have already seen from Manziel so far, the Browns will need another quarterback of some kind going into next season. The fact that they are picking up a practice squad players to play quarterback in this game is not exactly inspiring.

I have been saying that the Ravens are a really good team with a glaring flaw thanks to the injuries they have had in the secondary, but there were more problems than that last week as they lost to the Texans. In fact, it wasn’t so much their secondary as the offence that cost them the game last week, with Joe Flacco throwing three interceptions and the running game only gaining thirty-three yards. I think they are still a good team, and that they will win this game, but the points make me nervous and the Browns will be desperate to be playoff spoilers in this game. The Browns have huge questions at quarterback, but their defence is ranked eleventh by DVOA and I just have a feeling this will be closer than nine points. I could be proved very wrong, and the Ravens need this win to make the playoffs, but this is a lot of points in the usually tight AFC North.

Gee’s Pick: Browns
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

Cowboys @ Semi-Pros(+6.5)

The Semi-Pros managed a win last week despite fairly average numbers on offence, including a not particularly strong showing from Richard Griffin. I’m really not sure where this win came from, but I think there are too many flaws for them to be able to repeat the win this week.

The Cowboys wrapped up the division last week against a Colts team that really weren’t in the game at any point. Given the injury status of Murray and Romo it was surprising how much they played after the Colts pulled Andrew Luck. I don’t think they will have any problems against the Semi-Pros, even if they rest their injured players as the o-line is still going to one of the best in the league. Also, it is not like Cowboys coach Jason Garrett has shown much reluctance in risking injury to his players so far this season.

Gee’s Pick: Cowboys
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

Colts @ Titans (+7.5)

The Titans have had an awful season, and having seen them last week I can see why as neither side of the ball looked good, and pass protection was a serious issue. This is a team that needs a serious overhaul, and it is likely going to take a couple of seasons for them to turn it round.

However, the Colts were not good last week, and having held out TY Hilton with a hamstring problem, were pretty awful in a lopsided loss to the Cowboys. Although there were a number of drops in that game, it has been several weeks since Andrew Luck has looked really good for four quarters. At some point they will have to address how much they are asking Luck to do for the team to win games, but for now they go where he and TY Hilton takes them.

I think they should win this game, but I’m not convinced that they will given their performance and what they have left to play for so in a week where I have to take chance to win, I’m taking the Titans to cover.

Gee’s Pick: Titans
Dan’s Pick: Colts

Chargers @ Chiefs (-2.5)

The Chiefs are a very solid team, but you can’t win consistently in the NFL without a passing game, and the stat that Alex Smith hasn’t thrown a touchdown to a receiver is now being talked about by everyone. I would imagine that this position would be a point of emphasis this offseason, but given the performance of this year’s rookie class, last year’s draft was the time to address the receiver position. They will keep themselves in this game as they do in most, but I’m not sure they have enough ways to win, particularly given that Alex Smith is now done of the season with a lacerated spleen.

This week the Chiefs welcome a Chargers team that still has something to play for as they can make the playoffs. The Chargers somehow managed to stay in the race despite losing another centre for the game against the 49ers with an ankle injury. They managed to get the win despite being 28-7 down at halftime and giving up 355 yards rushing yards. Furthermore, we’ve had it confirmed that Philip Rivers has been playing through a bulging disk in his back, which explains the variance in his play this season, but he did more than enough to win last week and if he can keep the interceptions down then the Chargers should have enough to win this week.

Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Chargers

Jets @ Dolphins (-5.5)

The Dolphins did really well to get the come from behind win last week, but it must still rankle that they are not in the playoff hunt. It would seem to make sense to give Joe Philbin one more year given the improvement Ryan Tannehill has made during his first year in Bill Lazor’s offence, but there has to be disappointment that they are not part of the playoff race in the final week.

The Jets ran the Patriots close last week, but were unable to get the win, and this could very well be Rex Ryan’s last game as coach. It seems a shame given the success that he has had despite never having a good quarterback. However, despite Geno Smith saying he wants to be part of the solution, he hasn’t really convinced this year and threw another interception against the Patriots last week. The simple fact is that this team doesn’t have enough talent to win despite a pretty good front seven.

I can see the Jets competing in this one, and whilst I think the Dolphins can win, their run defence scares me and I’m changing my mind on this one given the points.

Gee’s Pick: Jets
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Saints @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

The Buccaneers have had a surprisingly torrid season under Lovie Smith, who I expected to bring stability to this team, but whilst the defence has shown flashes some weeks, neither side of the ball has really shown much this season. The only bright spots have been the performances of rookie receiver Mike Evans and outstanding defensive tackle Gerald McCoy. It looks like the Bucs will have a shot at a quarterback if they like any of the top prospects, but it will take more than that to turn this team around so they should probably just take the best player available.

The Saints went all in on this season as they have cap problems and an ageing quarterback. Whilst you can see the logic in this decision, it has backfired horribly and it is an offseason of turmoil that this team are facing. That said, they still have Brees and Graham so I can’t see them dropping this final game of a dismal season.

Gee’s Pick: Saints
Dan’s Pick: Saints

Eagles @ Giants (-2.5)

The Giants might have done enough to save Tom Coughlin’s job with a late season rally behind the outstanding rookie receiver Odell Beckham. Still, they will need several more drafts like this last one to replenish the talent of this squad.

Three straight losses have seen the playoffs slip out of reach for an Eagles team that have disproved the theory that Chip Kelly’s offence is quarterback proof. I actually feel sorry for Sanchez as he has achieved more than he is usually given credit for, but he can’t seem to overcome the turnovers.

The Giants still seem to be playing hard, where as the Eagles must be disappointed in the way the season is ending. However, I have been really impressed with Chip Kelly and I think there is a fundamental talent gap between these two teams so I’m taking the Eagles and the points.

Gee’s Pick: Eagles
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

Jaguars @ Texans (-9.5)

The Texans came up with a win last week despite having to start Case Keenum at quarterback and their only touchdown pass coming from Arian Foster. However, they do at least stand a chance of getting a winning season, which is the least that JJ Watt’s fantastic play this season deserves. He has anchored a defence that is top ten in the league by DVOA and it is amazing how he continues to affect the game despite sometime garnering triple teams from opposing offences.

The Jaguars definitely are showing signs of promise, but this will have to turn into wins next season if Gus Bradey wants to keep his job. The problem in this game is that they are horrible in pass protection so JJ Watt could have a field day. However, their defence is very tough and I see them keeping it close against the Texans, who are now down to their third starting quarterback of the season.

Gee’s Pick: Jaguars
Dan’s Pick: Texans

Panthers @ Falcons (-3.5)

This is a huge, winner gets into the playoffs game.

The Falcons had a horrible start to the year, losing pretty much an entire starting line-up of offensive lineman. Still, since the bye week they have gone 4-2, playing largely sold football on offence. Their defence has been horrible, but between Matt Ryan and their skill players they have enough fire power to keep themselves in games if the o-line can hold up long enough.

This week they go against a Panthers team that has struggled for long periods of the season. It was surprising to see Cam Newton run so much in week sixteen against the Browns just a week after fracturing two bones in his back in a car accident. However, they have not been consistent on either side of the ball, with the defence struggling to get a pass rush or cover receivers with their patched up secondary, and the offence sputtering with Newton’s inconsistent play across the season.

The fact of the matter is that the despite which team wins, we will have a team with a losing record in the playoffs, and I think that given how they have been playing recently I think that team will be the Falcons.

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Falcons

Raiders @ Broncos (-14.5)

By any team’s standards the Broncos have had a successful year, but the questions still surround Peyton Manning after he lost another game last week, his first against the Bengals. The fact of the matter is that he only needs to throw one more touchdown to have forty for the season and currently leads the league. He might not have looked at his best over the last few weeks, but he lead the comeback in the third quarter last week and this team has surrounded him with players that given them other ways to win. They should have more than enough to take care of the Raiders.

The Raiders may have a losing record for another year, but for the first time in a while they have hope in young players that they can build round. I don’t know who their coach will be, but they are heading in the right direction. However, whilst they may have improved, I don’t see them getting a final upset against the Broncos in this game. That said, with Peyton’s troubles over recent weeks, I don’t see why the Broncos are giving quite so many points to the Raiders, even if they are at home.

If anyone could prove me wrong, it is Manning and the Broncos, but this is simply too many points for me.

Gee’s Pick: Raiders
Dan’s Pick: Raiders

Lions @ Packers (-7.5)

This is a big game in the NFC North, and this line is a testament to how good the Packers have been at home as they lost to the Lions in Detroit. That said, whilst the Lions defence has been excellent all season, their offence has struggled for long stretches of the year and only scored twenty last week against a Bears defence that has been rotten all year.

This line does worry me a little, but Aaron Rodgers has been phenomenal at home and I’m backing him to carry that forward into the playoffs. The real question will be if he can take it on the road.

Gee’s Pick: Packers
Dan’s Pick: Lions

Rams @ Seahawks (-12.5)

The Seahawks have been playing great football over the last few weeks and no team will relish the trip to Seattle in the playoffs. Their defence has been at the heart of this resurgence, but even the offence got into the act last week, generating nearly six hundred yards with great games from Marshawn Lynch in the run game and Russell Wilson who generated yards with his arm and legs.

The Rams came back to Earth with a bump last week, losing to the Giants. Their defence has really come round, but the offence is struggling and they are another team who will be searching for an answer at quarterback in the offseason.

This is a lot of points, but the Seahawks are playing so well at home at the moment that I fancy them to cover the points.

Gee’s Pick: Seahawks
Dan’s Pick: Rams

Cardinals @ 49ers (-5.5)

The 49ers surprised me with how well they did last week, but whilst their offence did put up good numbers, they were going against a Chargers defence that was ranked twenty-third in the league by DVOA. It was good to see the long run from Colin Kaepernick, as it reminded you just what a physical talent he is, but next season he will need to develop in the pass game if this team are going to have more success. The 49ers will also need to improve their o-line for this to happen, as it has regressed markedly this season. Still, the main improvement could be stability at head coach as I don’t see how the turmoil that has surround Jim Harbaugh could have failed to affect the team.

The Cardinals are limping into the playoffs, with question marks surrounding their offence, and the quarterback in particular. Last week’s loss to the Seahawks was a rough one, but the Cardinals will be desperate to establish something on offence before they head into the playoffs. I am surprised by the number of points that the 49ers are giving in this game and I’m backing the Cardinals coaching staff who have done a phenomenal job of coping with the large number of injuries they’ve had this season.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Cardinals

Bengals @ Steelers (-2.5)

The Steelers are one of the scarier playoff prospects as when the offence takes off, be it Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown in the pass game or Le’Veon Bell in the run game, they can take over a game. The defence can show flashes, but you can exploit their secondary and the front seven can’t always bring the pass rush like they have in previous years. Still, this is a veteran team that knows how to win when it matters most.

The Bengals are almost the complete opposite in that prime time games have been an issue throughout Marvin Lewis’ tenure as head coach. One win against the Broncos on Monday Night Football does not change this, but it could be a turning point and the Bengals will be desperate to avenge the bad ten minutes they are claiming lost them the previous meeting with the Steelers, and defend their AFC North title. I can pretty much envision any result happening in this game, but I think it will be close so between getting points and blind optimism, I am backing the Bengals in this one.

Gee’s Pick: Bengals
Dan’s Pick: Bengals

NFL Week 16: Titans @ Jaguars Recap and Picks

20 Saturday Dec 2014

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Blake Bortels, Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL, Tennessee Titans, Week16 Picks

Titans @ Jaguars

This game was not only interesting, buy pretty enjoyable as the Jaguars managed to pick up their third win of the season.

The Titans opened the game strong taking a ten point lead having elected to receive the ball as they wanted to get off to a fast start. And this is exactly what they got in their opening drive, going eighty-four yard with several nice throws by career backup Charlie Whitehurst, including a lovely twenty-one yard pass to Delaine Walker that must have settled the nerves of everyone on the Titans’ sideline.

In fact the story of this game was the quarterback play, along with pass protection issues, and the Jaguars defence.

The Titans played the more consistently on offence, with Whitehurst throwing some lovely balls and them demonstrating a balanced approach. However, I was pretty impressed with the Jaguars defence that played very tough and frequently caused the Titans problems getting four sacks and really stifling the Titans except for a couple of drives. In fact, the only really impressive drive after their opening drive was in the fourth quarter, when Whitehurst drove them up the field with a succession of good looking passes to different receivers. However, when it really mattered he couldn’t get the ball into the end zone, with a lovely pass defence by Jonathan Cyprien on third down resulting in a Titans field goal. The Jaguars made life difficult for him and I was really impressed by fith round pick Telvin Smith who seemed to be popping consistently in good places from inside linebacker.

If you just compare the numbers of the quarterbacks, you would have thought that the Titans’ had won the game with Whitehurst throwing for over twice as many yards as Blake Bortles. However, I think that Bortles had a better game than these numbers indicate as whilst the Titans were bad in pass protection, the Jaguars were horrible. On one of the few times that Bortles stood in the pocket in the first half he got absolutely drilled. The Jaguars made good use of bootlegs, options, and play action to move Bortles in an attempt to get him time to throw, but often even doing this the Titans were really coming after him. However, there were a few lovely passes amongst the wayward and there could be potential here. The other positive, was although Bortles rushed for fifty yards in this game, and there were option plays being run, he only kept the ball once that I remember on one of these and most of the time he was scrambling out of necessity. Another good point about his running was the absence of heroics, Bortles got what yards he could and then got down. He may have escaped a safety and made up twenty-six yards for the first down, but he didn’t take a hit and that bodes well for his longevity. However, we really won’t know if he has the ability to make the throws you need to be a quality starter until he gets an offensive line that can protect him.

The Titans really were pretty nondescript and it will be interesting what approach they take in the offseason to turn things round, where as I really do think there are some good things beginning to be put together in Jacksonville, but it was always going to take time to turn around a team who had been as bad as the Jaguars were.

And now we get back to the week sixteen picks, pausing only to give you the standings after week 15

Gee: Week 15 11-5 Overall 112-112
Dan: Week 15 7-9 Overall 113-111

Eagles @ Semi-Pros (+8.5)

The Semi-Pros lost their starting quarterback Colt McCoy to a reoccurrence of his neck injury and so it was time for Robert Griffin to return, shortly after being benched, but even if it was good to see him escape the pocket and get into the end zone, he managed to fumble the boy and lose the touchdown. He did have one passing touchdown and more importantly, managed not to throw an interception but the Semi-Pros never got themselves back in the game against the Giants. The new low key Robert Griffin might help calm the media circus that currently sounds the team, but it is going to take a solid offseason of work to correct the litany of faults that Jay Gruden mentioned a few weeks ago. Whether either of them will be with this team to do this is anyone’s guess, but for now they welcome a smarting Eagles team to FedEx Field.

The Eagles fell out of the playoff places after their loss against the Cowboys last week, and will have to win both of their next two games and hope that results go their way to get back in. They could very well go 11-5 and fail to make the playoffs. They have been a very good team with okay quarterback play, which has probably cost them over the last few weeks with Mark Sanchez throwing nine interceptions to ten touchdowns. The other problem they had last week was that they kept leaving Dez Bryant in single coverage, and your pass rush is not going to get to Tony Romo against the Cowboys o-line before Bryant gets open. He is too good of a receiver to let this happen, and in this game he caught six balls for 114 yards and three touchdowns. The good news is that the miss-firing Semi-Pro offence does not offer similar challenges, and their secondary could really struggle against the fast paced Eagles offence.

I expect Chip Kelly’s team to get back to winning ways this week, but I’m not sure they make the playoffs.

Gee’s Pick: Eagles
Dan’s Pick: Eagles

Chargers @ 49ers (-2.5)

The 49ers season continues to fall apart, they performed as I expected last week, and even lost one if the few bright spots of their season when Chris Borland injured his ankle, possibly putting an end to his eye catching debut season. They also finally released Ray McDonald this week, who was not charged with anything following an investigation regarding domestic violence earlier this year, but who is now being investigated on suspicion of sexual assault. The season can’t be over quickly enough for the 49ers so they can sort their coaching situation and start preparing for next season.

The injuries caught up with the Chargers a few weeks ago, but it also appears that quarterback Philip Rivers may be battling a more significant back injury than the team were letting on. Losing four centres would be enough to cripple any team’s season, yet the Chargers are a very respectable 8-6, and if they can get healthy next year then they could really push on. They have lost their last two games, but given they were facing the Patriots and Broncos this is perhaps not surprising and I think they will get back on track this week.

Gee’s Pick: Chargers
Dan’s Pick: Chargers

Falcons @ Saints (-6.5)

This is another strange game brought to you by the NFC South.

Before the season it would have been unthinkable that the Saints would lose four straight games at home, but that is what they have done, and having beaten the woeful Bears on the road last week, they welcome the Falcons. I really don’t have a handle on this team, their offence is top ten by DVOA but their defence has been an awful thirtieth by DVOA.

The Falcons offence is only ranked one place lower that the Saints despite losing nearly an entire starting line up of offensive linemen, but their defence is even worse, ranked as they are at the bottom of the league.

I am worried about the injury status of Julio Jones, but I’m not sure what the Saints have done to be nearly a touchdown up against anyone at home this season and I think that the Falcons really could win this one.

Gee’s Pick: Falcons
Dan’s Pick: Saints

Lions @ Bears (+6.5)

The Bears season continues to be an exercise in pain for their fans, with another loss and the benching of the leagues most expensive offensive player. Jay Cutler’s stats were horrible last week, and the team may need a change just to mix things up, but there doesn’t seem to be a coherent plan and you have to wonder what is going to happen during the offseason in Chicago.

The Lions got the win against a Vikings team that are playing tough defence, and their offence looked like its troubled self again having had a good couple of weeks. However, those good performances started against the Bears and given the way the Chicago defence has been playing, I think the Lions should be able to get going again and setup a huge final game against the Packers in Lambeau Field.

Gee’s Pick: Lions
Dan’s Pick: Lions

Browns @ Panthers (-4.5)

The Panthers got their second win over the Buccaneers with Derek Anderson under centre, but we don’t know for sure yet who the starter will be for the Panthers in this game. This should make me nervous about picking this game, but whilst I think they have to start him to find out what they have in their first round pick, Johnny Manziel was awful last week and I think it’s going to be a difficult end to what has been a very promising first season for Mike Pettine in charge of the Browns.

Gee’s Pick: Panthers
Dan’s Pick: Panthers

Packers @ Buccaneers (+10.5)

The Buccaneers have been playing well on defence recently, but they’ve just lost Gerald McCoy and this is making me hesitant. The Packers may have been peerless at home, but have been much more of mixed bag on the road. The Bills defence has been playing brilliantly all season, and it was a perfect storm of good play and misfires from the Packers that resulted in the Bills winning last week. I don’t see the Buccaneers winning the game, but I’m tempted by the line to back them to cover. If this was a matter of money then I would be staying well away from this game, but as it’s not I’m prepared to just look stupid.

Gee’s Pick: Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick: Packers

Chiefs @ Steelers (-3.5)

The Steelers kept the pressure on in the AFC North race with another win. This is a team that has terrifying ability to take over a game in very little time with explosions of offence as the Bengals learnt to their cost two weeks ago. However, their defence is just flat out bad this season and with a couple of injuries in their secondary, they could be really exploited in this area of the field.

The problem is that whilst the Chiefs will know about the problems with the Steelers defence, they don’t have the receivers to take advantage. You have to admire the coaching staff’s commitment to staying with what works for them, but the fact that they don’t have a receiving touchdown amongst their receivers this season does not bode well when that is the obvious way to attack your opponent. The Chiefs have done amazingly well considering this handicap, but I don’t think the Steelers will be doing the Bengals any favours this week.

Gee’s Pick: Steelers
Dan’s Pick: Steelers

Vikings @ Dolphins (-6.5)

The Dolphins season seems to be fading at the worst time, despite seeing enough development from their third year quarterback Ryan Tannehill to answer a lot of the questions that surrounded him at the start of the season. However, there are questions about the coaching job that Joe Philbin has done this season, but the big concern at the moment is the defence which has been struggling in recent weeks, particularly against the run. This could be a real problem in this game as although the Vikings are ranked twenty-second in offence by DVOA, they are ranked fourth in rushing offence.

The Vikings have quietly gone 6-8 this despite losing Adrian Peterson for the season, and an o-line that has not exactly been giving rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater the protection that he needs. However, Mike Zimmer has his defence playing solidly and his team have been in every game for a month including a narrow two point loss to the Packers, and he has the rushing attack to exploit a Dolphins defence that has struggled against the run in recent weeks. I fancy them to keep this game close and possibly beat a Dolphins team who have seen the playoffs slip out of their grasp.

Gee’s Pick: Vikings
Dan’s Pick: Dolphins

Patriots @ Jets (+10.5)

I want to pick the Jets in this game. The double digit lines have been causing me problems for a lot of the season. The problems is that whilst the Jets are playing hard and just got a win against the awful Titans, they are horrible on offence and fatally flawed on defence as they don’t have the cornerbacks to play Rex Ryan’s defensive system.

I still think there are signs that Tom Brady is creeping towards being human, but he and the team have been playing so well since their bad start to the season, and having smashed the Dolphins last week, I think they will cover again this week when they visit the Jets. I may be worried about it being a divisional road game for the Patriots, but that apparently this isn’t going to stop me backing them.

Gee’s Pick: Patriots
Dan’s Pick: Patriots

Ravens @ Texans (+4.5)

The Texans have basically run out of quarterbacks with Ryan Fitzpatrick going down with a broken leg. This is such a shame for a team that with a bit more consistency from that position and Arian Foster not missing games could have pushed for a playoff spot. Not only will they miss the playoffs, but a losing record makes it that much harder for JJ Watt to win MVP, even though he has had the most ridiculous of seasons. He has more caught touchdowns than the Chiefs entire receiving corp. However, their problem in this game is that they are starting Case Keenum who was picked up this week off the Rams’ practice squad, but who was with the Texans all through training camp. This is an issue as the glaring place to attack the Ravens is in the passing game as they have just lost yet another member of the secondary, but I just don’t see it happening.

The Ravens are a scarily complete team, with the one glaring flaw I just mentioned, but I don’t see their injured secondary hurting them in this game. The offence is working well, and there defensive front might actually be playing better since Haloti Ngata’s suspension as it has increased Timmy Jernigan’s playing time. They may be on the road in this game, but I don’t expect that to stop them.

Gee’s Pick: Ravens
Dan’s Pick: Ravens

Giants @ Rams (-5.5)

The Rams have a defence that is playing really well over the recent weeks (they are top ten by DVOA), but they cannot move the ball on offence and so having got a couple of wins, they were unable to beat the Cardinals last week. I think this should be a close game, but whilst I can see them winning the game, I’m not sure I can see them beating the Giants by this much.

The Giants season has been massively disappointing, but they have one of the most exciting rookie receivers that we have seen in years. They are ranked a few places higher in offence by DVOA, but there defence is much worse. However, the Eli Manning to Odell Beckham Jnr. Connection is so much more effective than anything that the Rams offence can offer that I think it will keep them in the game.

In the end, I’m taking the points in a game where the team records are only separated by a win.

Gee’s Pick: Giants
Dan’s Pick: Giants

Bills @ Raiders (+5.5)

Oakland crashed back to earth last week with a heavy loss against the Chiefs. They have some pieces to build around for next year, but who will be coaching them and what the plan will be is anyone’s guess at this point. It will be interesting to see how things evolve, but I think we could have seen their last win of the season, as they follow this game against the Bills with a visit to the Broncos.

The Bills got an excellent win against the Packers, and whilst there were some miscues from the Packers offence, the Bills defence continued their strong play and now lead the league in defensive DVOA. I think they will have more than enough to deal with the Raiders this week, and it will be interesting to see what they do about the quarterback position in the offseason, as this is the one thing that give me pause in this game. Still, whilst I’m wary of a drop off from last week, I have no trust in the Raiders and I think it could be a very long day for Derek Carr against the Bills’ fearsome pass rush.

Gee’s Pick: Bills
Dan’s Pick: Bills

Colts @ Cowboys (-2.5)

The Cowboys really impressed me with their win against the Eagles last week, and Tony Romo looked a lot more like the quarterback who played so well at the beginning of the year. The problem is that DeMarco Murray broke his hand and we’re still not sure if he will be playing with a cast. However, I’m prepared to take a risk here as the Cowboys’ offensive line has been simply fabulous this year and I think that any competent back can probably have success behind it. They didn’t get a great deal of yards last week against the Eagles, but the Colts defence is not such a fierce proposition.

The truth is that the Colts have been getting away with it for the last few weeks. Andrew Luck has a surprising number of fumbles and interceptions, and it’s only been down to some redemptive heroics on his part that they haven’t dropped a couple of games. The Patriots were the last team to beat them, but they also gave the league a template for doing it, and the Cowboys have the offensive line to run the ball down the throat of the Colts defence like the Pats did in week eleven. I think this will be an interesting game, and could reveal a lot about both of these teams’ prospects in the playoffs.

Gee’s Pick: Cowboys
Dan’s Pick: Cowboys

Seahawks @ Cardinals (7.5)

This is going to be an ugly game, both teams are playing good defence and both have their challenges on offence.

The Cardinals have had so many injuries, but Ryan Lindley as quarterback might be a handicap too far for the Cardinals who somehow have only three losses despite being on their third starting quarterback and the fourth to play for them this season. They have not been running the ball well for most of the season, but did manage to do so last week with a balance of Kerwynn Williams and Stepfan Taylor.

The Seahawks have been back to their best on defence over the last few weeks and are peaking at the right time of the season. No one will want to play them at the moment, but they are limited on offence as Russell Wilson doesn’t’ have the skill players to throw to. I think that the Seahawks are going to win this game, but I don’t see them having enough offence against the Cardinals defence to get a win big enough to cover this line.

Gee’s Pick: Cardinals
Dan’s Pick: Seahawks

Broncos @ Bengals (+3.5)

I am terrified of this game. The Bengals looked really good against the Browns last week, but a high pressure Monday Night Football appearance is not what I would have chosen for a must win game if we are to make the playoffs. This is a chance for our January woes to come a visiting in December, and whilst I’m happy that we’ve seem to have found the right balance in the run game, the defence is not where it was last year in terms of consistency and run stopping, whilst everything sits on Andy Dalton’s big game play. Like I said, I have no confidence in this game.

The Broncos have been winning ugly in recent weeks, and something is going on with Peyton Manning as although he’s been throwing wobbly balls for years, they are lacking zip and he hasn’t had a good performance since week thirteen. The bad new for the Bengals is that the Broncos seem to have found a formula to run the ball and their defence has been playing well all season. They may not be dominating like they were earlier this season or last year, but they have built the team to win in other ways than riding the arm of Manning and I suspect this will seem them through in this game.

I would love for this to be a break out game for Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton, a win here could turn around the narrative surrounding them in big games, and at the beginning of the season I was hopeful that they could get a playoff win and push on as there is so much talent on the roster, but I’m still haunted by the previous losses to the Patriots and Browns in prime TV spots. Prove me wrong guys!

Gee’s Pick: Broncos
Dan’s Pick: Broncos

The Wrong Football

~ A UK American Football fan writes about the game he loves

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