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Week Eight Picks

29 Saturday Oct 2016

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I’m working on this and putting it up early as I am off to Wembley tomorrow.

I shouldn’t be panicking too much as I only hit 45 points a week earlier last year, but I have been under .500 for most of the season and it is beginning to bug me, even if Dan has only pulled back level with me this week.

Gee:      Week 7   4-11                     Overall   45-62
Dan:      Week 7   5-10                     Overall   45-62

Washington @ Bengals (-2.5)

Washington are following up their road loss in Detroit by flying to London to play the Cincinnati Bengals as the road team. They look to have solidified the after their poor start to the season, but are facing the Bengals coming off their first thirty point game of the season having beaten the Cleveland Browns. We will have to see if Josh Norman or Jordan Reed will play given their recent concussion issues, but I’m picking in hope of witnessing a win tomorrow, even if it would be a very Bengals thing to lose the first game that I can actually get to see them play in person.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengal  s
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Patriots @ Bills (+6.5)

The hamstring injury to LeSean McCoy is a big worry for the Bills, as will have been giving up over two hundred yards on the ground to the Miami Dolphins on the other side of the ball. They may be back in Buffalo, but I find it hard to look past a New England Patriots team that will be looking to avoid a season white wash against the Bills.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Jets @ Browns (+3.5)

The New York Jets might have got an unexpected win last week, but they are only 0.4% better by overall DVOA than the Browns, and are on the road in Cleveland. I could really regret this, but the Browns don’t look to be a zero win team and this game is as good a chance for them to get a win as they are likely to get, and I think getting these points I’m going to back them to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Lions @ Texans (-2.5)

The Texans are one of the more Jekyll and Hyde team with a defence that ranks just outside the top ten by DVOA and an offence that is flat last. The Detroit Lions did enough last week to win, and are the inverse of the Texans with a defence flat last in the league by DVOA, and an offence that ranks thirteenth. However, they have distinctly better ranked special teams and a quarterback who is working well with his offensive coordinator and I choose this week to put my faith in that.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Chiefs @ Colts (+2.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs are a better team than the Indianapolis Colts, and have the running backs to trouble the Colts defence even if things haven’t been flashy for the Chiefs on offence this year. It is possible that I am being overly harsh on the Colts, and perhaps I should trust them at home getting points, but I don’t and so I’m picking the Chiefs in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Raiders @ Buccaneers (-0.5)

The Buccaneers may have done better last week, but it was against the 49ers and whilst they will likely have some success against the Raiders poor defence, the Raiders have actually been better on the road than in Oakland. Perhaps the weather in Tampa Bay will cause them problems, but I’m happy to be getting a half point as I think the Raiders are the better team.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Seahawks @ Saints (+3.5)

The next couple of games I am picking based on what happen to both the Panthers and the Bengals the last time there was a tie that involved both teams playing an entire quarter of overtime, which was both teams came out very flat and lost. So with the Saints getting three and a half points going against a team whose offence is struggling and unlikely to take advantage of the Saints poor defence, I’m backing the Saints to cover at home with them getting this many points.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Cardinals @ Panthers (-2.5)

The Panthers are coming off a bye and desperately need to get their season going, even if it may already be too late. The real weakness of their defence has been the secondary, but whilst the Cardinals may have found a winning formula, David Johnson carried the ball a lot last week against the Seahawks and Carson Palmer has not looked himself this season and so again with the Cardinals having played five quarters of football last week, I’m backing the Panthers to win a game they really can’t afford to lose.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Chargers @ Broncos (-5.5)

The Denver Broncos got back on track with healthy win over the Houston Texans last week, and had a much better balance of run to pass plays. However, whilst the San Diego Chargers have a worse record right now, they are very possibly a better team than the Texans and certainly a DVOA ranking of eleven would point that way. I like them to come into Denver and at least keep it closer than six points.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Packers @ Falcons (-2.5)

The Packers got the win against the Bears at home in Green Bay last week despite their injury problems at running back, but they are not exactly back to their fluent best. The Atlanta Falcons lost in overtime to the San Diego Chargers, but their offence was playing at a higher level than the Packers before they developed problems of their own at running back. This should be a good game, but I’m backing the Falcons at home to pick up the win, even if I don’t feel that confident about it.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Eagles @ Cowboys (-4.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles got a great win against the Vikings last week, but their defence is going up against a very different proposition in the Dallas Cowboys offensive line. The Cowboys have built momentum and I think they will carry it through against a team who have been a little up and down. I could be underestimating the Eagles, and certainly Dan’s pick would indicate that I am, but I’m sticking by my instinct in this one despite being off so often this year.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Vikings @ Bears (+6.5)

The Chicago Bears have got Jay Cutler coming back after Brian Hoyer broke his arm last week, but how much of a bump that will be I don’t know, and I think it is more likely that the Vikings will bounce back. There were signs of a pass rush from the Bears last week so the Vikings problems on the offensive line do worry me a little, but I trust Mike Zimmer and his staff to get things back on track and so I’m backing the Vikings to cover this line. I just hope my change in pick doesn’t bite me.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Does the NFL Have a Problem?

27 Thursday Oct 2016

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It seems that everyone is writing some variation on what is wrong with the NFL, or questioning whether there are any good teams. The ratings for TV in the States are down, and the quality of the prime time games has been called into question, yet as ever, I think that the situation is more complicated than that.

Certainly there do seem to have been a lot of less than stellar games in the prime time slots, but part of that is due to the lack of flexing games until later in the season, and the very nature of the Thursday games. As it allows me to watch every team, and I get a chance to watch without knowing the score, I watch and write up the Thursday night games and you can frequently see them descend into an easy win for the home team. Playing a game three days early when it takes a week to recover has always caused problems for NFL teams, and it certainly calls into question the NFL’s claim that safety is their prime concern.

However, whilst these games are deliberately chosen to show case every team to the nation, the big prime time Sunday night and Monday night games are meant to be the best of the week’s matchups. The problem with that though, is these fixtures are selected whilst the army of computers that are used to churn out the schedule are working overtime to find the best fit that they can out of the incredibly complex mix of team requirements, TV requirements, the cycle of divisional opponents and various other factors that goes into making the NFL schedule. The difficulty being that when these decisions are being made, nobody knows who the good teams are going to be in the upcoming season. Even a safe looking selection like the New England Patriots visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers can take a turn for the worse when an important player like Ben Roethlisberger picks up and injury that keeps him out of the game.

There has been mention of the NFL having gone up against the presidential debates, but whilst there is a lot of focus on the race, the league have only had games go up directly against two of the three televised debates. So what is going on?

Part of it could well be that the NFL seems to be lacking teams that are definitively good this season. Week seven saw the last undefeated record go, and there are only three teams with a solitary loss. The New England Patriots look as good as anyone now that Tom Brady has come back from his suspension, but their defence seems to lack pass rushing and may be vulnerable to a high powered offence. The Dallas Cowboys have looked good as they have gone 5-1, largely thanks to the performance of two key rookies on offence and a defence that seems to have made a definite step up in play when compared to last season. The only other team to with a solitary loss are the Minnesota Vikings who were the last undefeated team this year, but the injuries to their already suspect offensive line allowed the Philadelphia Eagles to pressure them into a loss. This is a team that has already lost their starting quarterback to a practice injury in the preseason and their leading rusher.

Not team is ever perfect, but it feels like the presence of a major flaw is looming over a lot of teams this season. The Seattle Seahawks are as competitive a team in the league, but their offensive line is not good, and now an injured Russell Wilson is struggling to perform behind it. The Atlanta Falcons have the second ranked offence by DVOA, but their defence is ranked a lowly twenty-sixth and such a disparity makes it hard to look like a super team.

Once again though, there could be more to it. Certainly the games haven’t always been the best spectacle, people want excitement, and when games are being called with so many penalties as they currently are, it is hard to keep people engaged. My only personal frustration is the five yard illegal contact that seems to get called the moment a corner back breathes on a receiver, along with an unnecessarily generous automatic first down. If you are going to call a penalty that often, it shouldn’t just come with a first down, and a bit of hand fighting is hardly the biggest problem in the NFL. In fact I’ll try to approach that right now.

There are so many topics to cover and once again I am running out of time so let’s circle round to the biggy, at the centre of so many questions. The league office, and in particular Roger Goodell. There have been many words dedicated to his performance over the last couple of years. For a very on point summary of his handling of the Josh Brown case look no further than Sally Jenkins in the Washington Post (article here) and the really troubling this is that we have been here before and Goodell has not learnt his lessons. So the NFL are stuck with a commissioner who is happy to fine players for daring to twerk in the end zone, but can’t stick to his own policy on domestic abuse and yet again is blaming local law enforcement. The owners are happy to have him as he acts as firewall for criticism aimed at the league, but with dropping ratings, questions about safety and concussions, plus for possibly the first time there is potentially a serious rival league in the NBA who might be able to mount a genuine attempt at replacing football as America’s number one sport, it might be time for them to realise that the NFL is not too big to fail.

It is a long way from that, but they have to address youth football, get out of their own way when it comes to officiating, and find the right balance between player safety and allowing coaches to coach. To look at whether the rosters are too young, what new training tools like the robotic tackling dummies that we saw in this seasons Hard Knocks can give to the game. Football can be a conservative game, but with the challenges it faces, and to ensure its policy, it has to look to the future and embrace it, and that might just mean a forward looking commissioner that inspires confidence.

Of course, in four weeks’ time these stories could all just disappear, but the problems won’t and that should concern owners, players, and fans alike.

Jaguars @ Titans (-3.5)

My rule for the Thursday night games going forward is to always pick the home team unless there is a compelling number of points, or an amazingly good team on the road against a poor team. By this formula there is nothing about the Jaguars who seem to have gone backwards this season on offence for me to do anything other than pick the Titans.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Coaching Stability, talent, and Week 8 Picks

29 Thursday Oct 2015

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We are already approaching the mid-point of the season and yet we still have five unbeaten teams, but this week I want to focus some of the other franchises as there are some curious trends amongst some of the less successful teams.

I wrote after the week four games when the Dolphins fired Joe Philbin that it was unusual to fire coaches mid-season in the NFL. And that certainly used to be the case, although he was the second coach to be fired ahead of a bye week having lost a game in London in the last two seasons. Whilst I am not expecting Rex Ryan to be in trouble yet, Lions Head Coach Jim Caldwell is getting ahead of that possibility after their horrible 1-6 start by firing his offensive coordinator and the two coaches responsible for the offensive line heading into the Lions’ trip to London. As the Dolphins did, the Lions have promoted from within, and I am looking forward to seeing in person what, if any, changes this has on the underperforming Lions offence.

Traditionally, it was always the Monday after the end of the regular season, known as black Monday, when coaches got their marching orders. However, with some teams demonstrating that you can achieve some results with a mid-season switch, it is possible that whilst we won’t see the levels of turnover that has so plagued Premiership football teams over here in the UK, it may become more common to fire head coaches in the NFL and it could be worth tracking certain losing teams as they approach their bye week.

A prime candidate if this sacking of coaches is becoming a more common practice could well be Chuck Pagano of the Indianapolis Colts. They may well currently be the division leader, but they have a losing 3-4 record thanks to their defeat at the hands of the Saints at the weekend. More worryingly, they are visiting the Panthers this weekend and then hosting the Broncos before their week ten bye. There is already talk of discord between owner James Irsay, GM Ryan Grigson, and Pagano. This is perhaps not surprising given that Irsay is sure that he has a franchise quarterback and so must believe they have a championship window, but GM Grigson has not surrounded Andrew Luck with enough good players to win, and whilst this will be a source of some of the friction with Pagano, you only have to look to the fake punt coaching disaster of recent weeks to see that Pagano is hardly blameless either. We will know in a couple of weeks if there is going to be a change, but whilst they have three winnable divisional games left after the bye, time is running out for them to sort the problems in Indianapolis.

So whilst the Lions are firing coaches, and the Colts are at least the centre of a lot of disquiet, other teams are having problems with their talent. I am trying to not become boring on the subject, but I do not think it is a coincidence that apart from having top quality quarterbacks, one of the things that the consistently successful teams have in common is harmony between the front office staff and the coaches. You can’t build a team that wins without having talented players, but it takes more than physical ability to succeed in the NFL. When you are dealing with forty-six players active on game day, plus the rest of the roster and practice squad during the week, you have to have everybody pulling in the same direction. Not everybody on the roster has to be best friends, but there needs to be a mutual respect and a commitment to the work that is required in the NFL. Getting the right players, and keeping them motivated and invested is a vital part of creating a successful team and we have had two high profile incidents that highlight that this week.

I have written about what matters to the Cowboys is production on the field, and to be fair they will put in the extra resources to make this work, which has been successful with Dez Bryant. They even have taken to drafting sensibly in recent years, building themselves one of the top offensive lines in the league through the draft. However, they could not stop themselves from signing free agent Greg Hardy despite the moral argument against adding him to the team. I wrote in the preseason that I was glad that the Bengals showed no interest in Hardy, and this week’s antics demonstrate that even if you are prepared to swallow signing a player with no regard for women, and who is in fact a positive danger towards them, you are also signing up for a whole truck load of extra baggage that goes with his on field production. Apart from missing a practice last week, Hardy watched the Cowboys’ special teams give up a hundred yard kick off return. His reaction was not to offer to play special teams or give some positive encouragement; no he barged into the special teams huddle, slapped away the special teams coach’s clip board and got into a shoving match with him. He later got into a heated discussion with Dez Bryant, a man not unused to side line confrontation, but when Bryant is acting as the voice of reason then you know there is trouble. The only thing that makes this even more bizarre is that Jerry Jones went further than just protecting a team asset after the game when he called Hardy a leader. I don’t understand why you would want this man on your roster, yet alone talking about giving him a contract extension already. I would love to know what the other players actually think of him.

If things are dysfunctional in Dallas, at least they can point to the injuries sustained by their franchise quarterback and top receiver as the cause. The Texans have been woeful this season, and the ongoing quarterback saga took another twist this week. Having missed a practice through over sleeping during training camp, a training camp that was being televised no less. The much talked about Ryan Mallet missed the team’s chartered flight, and to buy his own ticket to get down to Miami. That the Texans released him is not a surprise, nor is it particularly surprising that Bill O’Brien wanted to cut him before the game and that he had to be talked round by Rick Smith into delaying. However, the fact that we know about this is surprising as that disagreement really should have stayed in house. Someone had to leak that, and you have to wonder what their agenda was. This may be it for Ryan Mallet in the league, but given how short of quarterbacks the league is, there may yet be a team out there that will give him a shot in training camp next season, but he would be on very think ice.

If you pay any attention to the scouting of college players, you will no doubt hearing a lot about physical tools, particularly for quarterbacks, but whilst the empirical testing of physical attributes is helpful, there is so much more to being a success in the NFL and it might help if teams paid a little more attention to this.

Moving towards picks, we were much more solid this week, and whilst I maintained my two game lead over Dan, the important thing is that I have a winning record once again. Now onto the week eight picks.

Gee:    Week 7   9-5               Overall   54-51
Dan:    Week 7   9-5               Overall   52-53

Dolphins @ Patriots (-7.5)

The Patriots are playing very well, but they are wearing down through injury and given how banged up they are on the offensive line, I wonder if they will be able to get to Tom Brady. I don’t think the Dolphins will necessarily win this game, and it will be fascinating to see how Dan Campbell’s team do against Bill Belichick’s game plan, but I’m not expecting a blow out so I’m joining Dan once again on Dolphins Island this week.

Gee’s Pick:    Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:    Dolphins

Lions @ Chiefs (-5.5)

The final London game of the season, but it is not quite the contest I thought I would be getting when I bought my ticket. The Lions have really struggled and the Chiefs put together some things last week, I don’t feel good about it, but the Chiefs have a number of players I like on defence so I’m backing them and hoping the points don’t bite me.

Gee’s Pick:    Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:    Lions

Buccaneers @ Falcons (-6.5)

The Falcons got back to winning ways last week even if it was ugly. This could be the game for them to get themselves going again against a Buccaneers team going through growing pains with their rookie quarterback, and a defence that has not looked convincing. I can see Gerald McCoy having a field day against the Falcons offensive line, but whilst the Falcons have their flaws, I think they have enough to win and I just hope they cover.

Gee’s Pick:    Falcons
Dan’s Pick:    Falcons

Vikings @ Bears (+1.5)

The Bears may be better than we first thought, but they are not a good football team and the Vikings are quietly going along nicely at 4-2 this season. I can’t look past them in this game.

Gee’s Pick:    Vikings
Dan’s Pick:    Vikings

Bengals @ Steelers (+0.5)

This game worries me, but then I always seem to say that about the Bengals. Coming off their bye to play the always awkward Steelers in Heinz Field, and I have this feeling that it’s going to be a close one field goal game like so many in the AFC North. The real problem is that Ben Roethlisberger could well be back for this game, the Steelers offence has terrifying weapons, and their defence has been keeping them in games despite the questions surrounding them. I think the Bengals will win, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Steelers win at home, but I’m taking a leaf out of Dan’s book for this one and trying to positive. Just don’t ask me about the game on Sunday!

Gee’s Pick:    Bengals
Dan’s Pick:    Bengals

Cardinals @ Browns (+5.5)

We don’t know who the Browns quarterback is going to be on Sunday, and Josh McCown’s success with the offence is the one thing this Browns team had going for them. I think they may well struggle on offence against the Cardinals opportunistic defence and I think the Cardinals should have enough to win this. I’m a little worried about the Cardinals on the road as I’ve already been bitten by them once already this season when they played the Steelers, but they could have won that game and I’m hoping the Cardinals cover the points in this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:    Cardinals

Titans @ Texans (-3.5)

This is a horrible pick to have to make as the Texans have been blown out twice this season whilst giving up over forty points. However, the Titans look likely to be without Marcus Mariota again this season and haven’t demonstrated much since their week one win against the Buccaneers, which was the template of their season last year. I’m reluctantly backing the Texans in this one as they are at home, but I don’t feel good about it.

Gee’s Pick:    Texans
Dan’s Pick:    Texans

49ers @ Rams (-8.5)

The 49ers were pretty solid on defence last week, but their offence was awful and visiting the Rams in St Louis is not likely to improve their performance on that side of the ball, particularly given their protection issues. The points give me a slight pause, and I expect the 49ers to have a reaction to their disappointing loss to the Seahawks, but I expect the Rams to win and I can’t bring myself to pick the 49ers to cover.

Gee’s Pick:    Rams
Dan’s Pick:    49ers

Giants @ Saints (-3.5)

The Saints are coming off a second straight win as they welcome the Giants, but I’m really not sure how much I can trust their improvements. The offence is moving the ball better, there are signs that the defence is coming together, and Sean Payton also worked in a fake field goal last week. Meanwhile, the Giants were outgained last week but got touchdowns in all three phases of the game, although they had to get a one hundred yard kick off return touchdown to win the game. So whilst this is a game that might tell us things about both teams, it’s not one that I’m exactly keen to pick. That said, I’m going to rely on home advantage and stick with the Saints momentum. Worriedly…

Gee’s Pick:    Saints
Dan’s Pick:    Giants

Chargers @ Ravens (-3.5)

The Ravens season is mired in problems with the passing game on both sides of the ball, and having fallen to the Cardinals last week, welcome a Chargers team who if nothing else can move the ball through the air. However, their defence is not good and it is possible that Justin Forsett who has only flashed this season might be able to take advantage. The problem is that the Ravens have not demonstrated any consistency this season and whilst the Chargers just got beaten by the Raiders, I don’t think that Joe Flacco has the tools to keep up with Rivers and the Chargers offence.

Gee’s Pick:    Chargers
Dan’s Pick:    Chargers

Jets @ Raiders (+1.5)

The Raiders really have a candidate for offensive rookie of the year in Amari Cooper who has been so good for them, but the Jets are significantly better on defence than the Chargers, whilst the Jets offence is ranked a surprising sixth by DVOA! There is a significant jump to the Steelers ranked fifth, but apart from being able to run the ball, Ryan Fitzpatrick has been getting good production from both Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall at receiver. In a game that is near as damn it a flat pick the winner, I’m backing the better team even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:    Jets
Dan’s Pick:    Jets

Seahawks @ Cowboys (+6.5)

The line worries me about this one, but whilst the Cowboys have the tight end in Jason Witten to test the Seahawks ongoing issues with tight ends, the Seahawks are beginning to play much better on defence as they settle in with their new defensive coordinator. I am worried that this is a pick based on my distaste and distrust of what is going in Dallas, but they are also ranked twenty-sixth in DVOA in rush defence and Marshawn Lynch was looking much more like himself last week.

Gee’s Pick:    Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:    Seahawks

Packers @ Broncos (+2.5)

The unbeaten record ends for one of these teams this week, and given the problems the Broncos are having on offence I think this is the game where their defence finally can’t do enough to win the game.

Gee’s Pick:    Packers
Dan’s Pick:    Packers

Colts @ Panthers (-6.5)

I’ve written extensively about the Colts earlier in this week’s column, so I’ll simply say that a really good defence and a strong running game is exactly what they don’t need to be facing, especially on the road. I don’t foresee any issues for the Panthers in covering this line, which is probably the kiss of death, so I’ll apologise in advance to the fans in Carolina but I’m backing them anyway in this one.

Gee’s Pick:    Panthers
Dan’s Pick:    Panthers

NFL Week 8 Picks

23 Thursday Oct 2014

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Neither Dan nor I liked the lines much last week and agreed they were a manure based bread snack.. However, the games were excellent, with the highlight probably being an improbable victory for the Rams over the visiting Seahawks. A win that included two great special teams plays that are well worth a look if you haven’t seen them yet. Also worth mentioning is that Peyton Manning passed Bret Farve to become the quarterback with the most passing touchdowns in league history, and given that he doesn’t look like slowing down anytime soon, I think that record is going to get a lot bigger.

I’m kicking myself a little bit about picking the Chargers last week, I was tempted to pick them as the injuries are mounting up for the Chargers, the Chiefs were coming off a bye and had been playing well, despite the now odd looking loss to the Titans. What I didn’t know was that Andy Reid had a 13-2 record coming off a bye, more proof that he is a pretty good coach.

I reverted very quickly to gallows humour on Sunday whilst watching the Bengals get bludgeoned by the Colts defence. I’m adopting the new nickname of the Cincinnati Bagels for my team, as heard on the Tuesday Morning Football Podcast, for this week and hopefully they can manage to score some points against the good visiting Ravens, but as I’m beginning to talk about the games, I guess I should start writing them up properly.

Gee:      Week 7   6-9                       Overall   52-54
Dan:      Week 7   6-9                       Overall   55-51

Chargers @ Broncos (-7.5)

We have now had two good Thursday night games in a row and this one looks like it should a cracker. Both teams are playing well, although the Chargers are the much more injured team. I’m really looking forward to going through the coaching tape of this one, but for me I think there is only one likely winner. The Chargers have been kings of the time of procession battle and I think it is possible that they keep it close again, but the problem is that the Broncos defence is playing very well and they are surging ahead atop the DVOA rankings. This could backfire on me as these larger spreads are difficult, but I have a feeling that the Broncos are going to do well at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Lions vs. Falcons (+3.5)

Not only do we get a game in London this week, but the NFL are experimenting with an early kick-off. This will, as much as anything, tell them if they can fit another game into the Sunday TV schedules, firming up the rationale for putting on the games in London and possibly giving them another package to sell to the American networks. Sadly I think this is going to be a very one sided game. The Lions defence is playing brilliantly and the Falcons have lost five o-line starters to injury already this season. Not a good combination, and although the Lions have been struggling on offence, the Falcons defence has been worse so for me this is a simple pick.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Bills @ Jets (-2.5)

I was pretty impressed with a lot of what the Jets did against the Patriots last week, and you can make a case that they should have won the game. The problem is that they didn’t, and they failed to win in particularly characteristic ways. The bad penalties and the offence lack talent is not something that is going to turn around quickly. I wrote in my recap of the game that you can’t fix a lack of talent during the season, and the Jets immediately go out and trade for Percy Harvin. The history of high profile wide receiver transactions has not often been successful, so I’m really not sure if Percy Harvin will have an impact in this game. The deal was worth doing as Harvin’s contract means they can cut him easily if things don’t work out, and they only gave up a sixth round pick, but this isn’t a magic panacea that is going to fix all of their problems.

It turns out that Sammy Watkins is so good, that you only need competent quarterback play to win games, although the Bills left it very late against the Vikings. However, I don’t think the Jets will have the same success running the ball in this game and as a consequence I think this is a worse match up for them. I think this will be a very good close game, but I think I know where this one is going.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Bears @ Patriots (-6.5)

I’m really not sure what to make of this game. The Bears have so much talent at the skill positions and Jay Cutler has the arm you would want, but he doesn’t protect the ball. The defence is ranked twelfth, which I think a lot of fans would have taken at the beginning of the season, and would be good enough to win if the offence was firing. Last week’s loss to the Dolphins was horrible, and there were was apparently plenty of frustration in the locker room after the game. However, this might not be that bad a game for them. I’m not sure that the Patriots team are firing on all cylinders yet, and they definitely can be run on, so I can see the Bears keeping this game close.

There is no doubting Brady’s competitive nature, and there are signs that things can work for their offence, but I’m not convinced. The ball doesn’t look like it is coming out of Brady’s hand as well as it used to; there have only been flashes from Gronkowski, Wright, LaFell, Edelman, and Amendola in the passing game; and they looked to be missing Stevan Ridley in the rushing game last week. I think they will win this game, but I don’t think they are going to run away with it. These are two teams that I have not been picking well all season, but I’m plumping for another close game.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

Ravens @ Bagels (-1.5)

Oh dear… The Bagels couldn’t get anything going on Sunday and it was painful to watch, although not as painful as the hits on Giovani Bernard, who got drilled twice on attempted screen plays that went nowhere. There are injuries in the receiving corp, but we have enough weapons. The hard truth is that it looks like that Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard are playing the wrong roles, in that Hill should be getting more carries and Bernard should be coming in as an awesome change of pace back. The defence stood up pretty well considering the number of three and outs the Bagels offence had to start the game, meaning that the defence was not getting a lot of help. The only crumb of comfort I’ve drawn so far, was the suggestion by Ross Tucker that the Bagels and Panthers’ poor play in week seven could be linked to them playing a full extra quarter of overtime in week six. I really hope that explains it.

There are questions about the Raven’s high rankings in the Football Outsiders stats due to the schedule they have played, but they look very good to me. The defence is playing a familiar brand of tough excellence, and Steve Smith has really added to an offence that really seems to be firing under new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak. I would love to be proved wrong, and I really hope that we get a close brawl of an AFC North game, but I’m worried about this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Bagels

Texans @ Titans (+0.5)

The Texans had fairly spectacular collapse in about two minutes at the end of the second quarter, which was enough for the Steelers to turn the game around and continue their very good run on Monday night football. The questions about the offence remain, and they feel like they are a team that are going to hover around .500 all season. They are currently 3-4, and I fancy them to get back on track this week.

One of the biggest questions about the Titans is ho w did they get their win against the Chiefs in week one. They just managed to beat the Jaguars in week six and then lost to Washington on Sunday, but they have not been good and it looks like they will have a high draft pick to find themselves a franchise quarterback.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Rams @ Chiefs (-6.5)

So this is a game between the pick that got away from me last week, and the result I never saw coming.

The Chiefs are a very solid football team that have some weapons on offence and a very solid defence. They beat the Chargers at their own game last week and welcome a Rams team that got the result of week seven. This is one of those games that I’m going back and forth on, but the Chiefs are ranked thirteenth in special teams, and I can’t see a repeat of the Rams heroics on that side of the ball in this game so I’m worriedly going with the Chiefs to beat the spread.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Dolphins @ Jaguars (+5.5)

The Dolphins had a very good day in Chicago on Sunday leading the entire game as Ryan Tannehill threw for 277 yards and two touchdowns on twenty-five of thirty-two pass attempts. The defence are currently ranked third by DVOA and if they can get play like this from Tannehill more regularly they could really make fight of the AFC East.

Although it destroyed another pick for me, I’m pretty happy for the Jaguars as they finally notched one in the win column. That they managed this despite Blake Bortles throwing three interceptions, which speaks of a solid performance by their defence. The problem is that they lost Paul Posluszny for the rest of the year to a torn pectoral, and he has been a cornerstone of their defence so I think they will come down with a bump in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Vikings @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

Urgh…

So the Vikings narrowly lost to the Bills with Teddy Bridgewater throwing a pair of interceptions and the Bills losing two running backs during the game. Their o-line is not good and the defence is ranked a lowly twenty-second, which is surprising given Mike Zimmer’s ability as a defensive coach.

The Buccaneers are coming off a bye week having been thoroughly beaten by the Ravens, and although it was not as bad as the Falcons drubbing, it was not good. They’ve been pretty poor, with only the week five overtime win against the Saints to cling to.

I don’t like either side in this game, so I’m reluctantly taking the points as I have to make a pick, but I’m glad I don’t have any money riding on this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Seahawks @ Panthers (+4.5)

So I follow up one game where I don’t know what to make of the teams, to another that I’m struggling with but for different reasons.

The Seahawks lost another game road game, and their special teams have plummeted down the DVOA rankings after last week’s performance. They are looking good on offence, with Russell Wilson continuing his excellent season, but they are a bit thinner on defence, the pass rush is not creating pressure like it was last season. However, they are still a good team with very good players and I find it hard to believe that they will lose three games in a row.

The Panthers had one of those games that can happen to anyone visiting Lambeau Field. They simply don’t have the secondary to cope with Aaron Rodgers, and having only allowed two touchdowns in the first quarter before this game, found themselves down at the end of the opening quarter. Cam Newton has been playing well this season, but he couldn’t get the Panthers back in the game. I have gone 2-5 picking the Panthers this year, and I don’t feel great about this, but there is a large gap between them in the DVOA rankings, and I think that the Seahawks will return to winning ways this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Eagles @ Cardinals (-2.5)

The Cardinals got their fifth win of the season last week, and stand atop of the loaded NFC West despite various injuries. Carson Palmer has looked okay when he has played, but the offence is ranked only twenty-fifth by DVOA, and it is their top five defence that’s keeping them in games. They were comfortable against the Raiders without exactly impressing, and I’m sort of waiting for the key injuring on defence to catch up with them.

The Eagles are the other team coming of a bye in week 7, and were very impressive in their week 6 game against the Giants. They got a pass rush unlike anything we have seen from them all season, and somehow they are ranked higher in defence than offence by DVOA. I think this will be a really good game, but I think right now that the Eagles are the healthier and therefore the better team so I’m taking the points.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Raiders @ Browns (-7.5)

I don’t like this line at all. The Raiders are not good, although there are signs that they might have a quarterback in Derek Carr, but I’m not sure where their first win is coming from. The Browns however, seem to be struggling due to the shuffles on their o-line since the Alex Mack injury, and whilst I think the Browns should win, I don’t like the points. I don’t like picking the Raiders, but in this game I’m going to give it a go.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Colts @ Steelers (+2.5)

I do not know what to make of the Steelers. They are up and down on offence and ranked a measly twenty-sixth in defensive DVOA. Their defence doesn’t look right and the offence isn’t scoring that many points. They put up thirty points last week, but they had two drives that started in the red zone in that game, and I think they might struggle this week because of the opposition. Plus, if they lose they get to keep their alternating win-loss record they’ve currently got going.

I have watched the Colts for two weeks straight now and have been impressed by their defence. They are blitzing a lot on third down, getting pressure, and are much better than I was expecting, or gave them credit for until recently. When you couple this with an offence led by Andrew Luck, you can see why they are 5-2 and heading up the AFC South. They have joined the Ravens in having all three phases of the game ranked inside the top ten by DVOA and I think that they will win this game and cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Packers @ Saints (-1.5)

The Saints could be due a win, and possibly should have had one against the Lions, but there was some horrific angles taken by their secondary in conceding a touchdown to Golden Tate and once again the Saints offence isn’t quite running as smoothly as we have come to expect.

The Packers on the other hand, are up and running after their 1-2 start. Their defence is ranked a credible tenth by DVOA and the offence is looking like the well oiled machine we have come to expect, and have the number two ranking to match. I see this game going only one way, which is worrying as this is a competitive league, but I do think the Packers will win this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Washington @ Cowboys (-9.5)

The Washington season is not going well, they have lots of questions surrounding their quarterbacks, and for this game they are starting Colt McCoy, which can’t be good. Their defence is doing okay, but they’ve just lost Brian Orakpo for the season to a third torn pectoral muscle of his career. The good news is that they are ranked top ten in rush defence by DVOA, which is going to be handy in this game as the Cowboys are pretty good at running the ball. I do not think they can win this game, but the points worry me in this game.

The Cowboys continue to be one of the stories of the season, and took care of business against the Giants at home in what could have been a letdown game after they went to Seattle and beat the Seahawks. I am pretty confident that they are going to win this game, but the points worry me. Washington’s defence is ranked a little worse in pass and a lot better against the run than the Giants, who lost by ten to the Cowboys. It might be that I got bitten by this number last week, but I just have a feeling that in a divisional game Washington might keep it closer. I’m worried about the Colt McCoy experience, and I’m sure that the Cowboys will win, but I’m backing Washington for the cover. Eeep.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys