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Saturday Divisional Games

12 Saturday Jan 2019

Posted by in Gee's Thoughts, Playoffs

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Now we have all the teams that are left in the competition playing it is time to look at the Saturday games.

Indianapolis Colts (6th) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1st)

The Kansas City Chiefs have been the talk of the NFL all season thanks to their high powered offence and the play of Patrick Mahomes in his first full season. Mahomes threw fifty touchdown and only twelve interceptions as he account for five thousand spectacular yards. We’ve had no look passes, differing arm angles and regular how did he do that plays, which have made Reid’s offensive scheme hum. This has been helped by the glut of talent the Chiefs have at the skills positions, and although there was a wobble after they cut running back Kareem Hunt after video of his assault of a woman in a hotel surfaced (because TMZ are better at investigating these incidents than the NFL are), the Chiefs finished the season with two thirty points games. The worry for the Chiefs is that their offence may match their overall ranking of first by DVOA, and their special teams are ranked second, but their defence is ranked twenty-sixth and so whilst they went 12-4, they have had to win a lot of shoot outs.

There are other problems though. One is that the Chiefs home playoff record has not been good, and whilst they will hope to overturn that this weekend, it would not exactly be a surprise if Mahomes shows some nerves early in the game. They welcome a Colts team who went on the road to beat their divisional rivals last week and come into this game with good form and great offensive and defensive lines. The other problem I want to mention for the Chiefs is that their defence was bottom of the league in rush defence by DVOA, and so whilst the Colts are not especially great at running the ball, they don’t have to be. I don’t have strong feeling on who is going to win this game, but I am really looking forward to seeing it as I think it could be spectacular given the Chiefs offence skill and defensive problems. I could see the Arrowhead crowd getting nervous if the Chiefs don’t get off to a good start and I do think an upset is possible. I’m not going to call it as a home teams in the divisional rounds have been won of the safer bets of the playoffs recently, but it definitely could happen.

Dallas Cowboys (4th) @ LA Rams (2nd)

The LA Rams may have suffered a disappointing Wildcard loss last season in Sean McVay’s first year, but they built on that momentum and hit the ground running this season. The offence was as scary as anyone’s up to their week twelve bye. Injury has hampered them a little since then, and one of the big questions going into this game is just how healthy is Todd Gurley. However, the signing of CJ Anderson helped them right the ship at the end of the season, and if Jared Goff’s form has dipped since the Rams lost Cooper Kupp they have done enough to be seeded second in the NFC. On the other side of the ball, Aaron Donald has had a formidable year as arguably the leagues best defensive player, but things have never quite gelled for all of the free-agents they have brought in and so whilst the offence is second in the league by DVOA, the defence is nineteenth. This is still better than the Chiefs, even if it is a similar formula and they may run into similar problems against the Cowboys as I see the Chiefs having with the Colts.

The Cowboys were the only home team to win in the Wildcard round and take their own formula to face the Rams. This starts with an offence built around Ezekiel Elliott running the ball and increasingly catching the ball out the back field. The addition of Amari Cooper has opened up defences for the Cowboys, but losing Allen Hurns last week to a nasty dislocation/broken fibula will hurt the passing game as will the niggles Cole Beasley and Tavon Austin are dealing with. However, the Rams defence has struggled against the run, only ranking twenty-eighth by DVOA despite the presence of Donald and Ndamukong Suh in the middle of the defensive line. The Cowboys formula of running the ball could definitely work in this game. Meanwhile the Cowboys defence has looked pretty good as well and finished the season ranked fifth in rushing defence by DVOA. If they can limit the Rams effectiveness in running the ball and not over commit to the play fakes of the Rams then they could well sneak this game and you know the Cowboys fans will likely be well represented in the Coliseum this Saturday. I lean to the Rams in this one, but I can make a formula for the Cowboys to win this game.

Close games have been a feature of this season. We could well have two of them today!

Rams, Broncos, Bengals and Pre-Season Reps

21 Sunday Aug 2016

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It’s not only the players who need preseason reps, and in week 2 I am already fighting to catch up thanks to a very busy week at work. Still, I have managed to get all of week 1 watched and caught up with episode two of Hard Knocks as well as the Bengals second game.

The Rams got off to a rocky start in LA, given that on the opening kick-off they gave up a one hundred and one yard touchdown return, which the fans must have been hoping was not a predictor or things to come. In fact, the Rams had a slow first half with them going into half time 24-7 down.

The thing that would be worrying me if I was a Rams fan, was that the defence was not looking that solid despite arguably being the stronger half of the team, with the young Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott looking very good, and you would imagine some Cowboys fans will be already feeling a little better about their backup quarterback situation going into the season after the disasters of last year.

It was also a frustrating evening for Jared Goff who started off looking like a rookie, threw a couple of incomplete passes and got sacked to give him the sore shoulder which cost him some snaps. It is too early to take anything significant from his performance, but as a first round pick the attention is going to be focussed on him all through the preseason, and will continue if the Rams don’t win or if Case Keenum starts to struggle.

If the defence didn’t set the world alight, neither did the offence, and whilst there was some flash from Tavon Austin, and Goff finally threw a couple of pass to Tyler Higbee to demonstrate that a tight end is often a young quarterback’s best option, they will need to improve.

However, in the second half the Rams did manage to drag themselves back into the game and ultimately won it, and whilst preseasons records don’t matter, for a team trying to get back to a winning record this season, this could be an important habit to get into. If there is an area of strength for the Rams on offence it looks to be running backs, with several players looking good in Gurley’s absence and late on receiver Nelson Spruce made a number of catches to push his case to make the team.

I am very much looking forward to seeing the next game and how things progress with this team and watching the games alongside Hard Knocks.

After asking for suggestions, and taking into account the story lines following their Super Bowl win, Dan and I settled on the Denver Broncos as the third team for this year’s preseason, and in their opening game they got off to a good start with a shutout win over the Chicago Bears.

The strength of the Broncos team was defence last year, and they looked good again despite a number of players moving away, as they gave the Bears protection issues all game, racking up a number of sacks to go along with their shut out.

However, the big question for the Broncos after Peyton Manning’s retirement and Brock Ossweiler’s move to the Houston Texans is who is going to play quarterback for them this season. They opened the game with Mark Sanchez, who looked good initially but just as I was beginning to think they might be okay Sanchez threw into coverage and was intercepted. This pretty much seems to sum up Sanchez’s career. Next up they had Trevor Sjemian who looked okay as he ran the team and definitely demonstrated some promise. However, even Paxton Lynch was able to demonstrate some solid play for a rookie, and my big worry for this team would be that if they have a pair of quarterbacks fighting it out for a starting spot for too long, then they might not end up with a true starter going into the season.

Still, with a blocked punt giving them a touchdown, and a safety, the Broncos found multiple ways to score and whilst you can never truly to tell from preseason, it looks like the Broncos are set to make a strong defence of their title.

Finally, I can move into the second week of the preseason, with the Bengals running out to a solid win in Detroit against the Lions.

The offence seemed to move the ball well for the Bengals, although another tackle has picked up an injury which is not a great sign. However, the Bengals depth seems to be holding for the moment and neither Cedric Ogbuehi nor Jake Fisher’s injuries are long term. The more positive news is despite the losses of Jones and Sanu in the offseason, plus free-agent signing Brandon LaFell fighting a hand injury and not catching a ball yet, the Bengals’ receivers are still showing up well. I am particularly impressed with rookie Tyler Boyd who caught another touchdown this week and seems to have settled into the top of the rotation with surprising ease whilst Brandon Tate caught passes with the first team again.

The defence gave up yards to the Lions, but were able to restrict them to field goals until the fourth quarter. The early signs to me is that Golden Tate and Marvin Jones are going to be good pairing for Matthew Stafford, and the offence looked to protect him pretty well against  the Bengal’s pass rush. However, the Bengals defence got enough pressure to win the game and it does seem that they will be competitive again this year.

Things are beginning to heat up as cuts loom on the horizon, and I’m hoping for a smoother week so I can really dig in as we get closer and closer to the regular season, but with people playing for jobs, there’s plenty of competitive football for us to watch already.

Buccaneers @ Rams, Amateur Adventures in Film, and Week 15 Picks

20 Sunday Dec 2015

Posted by in Amateur Adventures in Film

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It was a slightly odd Thursday night game given that if you were to look at the statistics on their own without the score, you would think that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers actually won the game, but in the end the Rams ran out convincing winners in what could be their last game in St Louis.

The Rams have now won two games straight and part of that turn around seems to be the change in offensive coordinator. Whilst the Buccaneers did an effective job of bottling up Todd Gurley, the Rams came with game plan that made the most of Tavon Austin’s ability with the ball in his hands, and an efficient passing game that gained two hundred and thirty-four yards from fourteen receptions out of seventeen attempts. I am not going to say that Case Keenum is an amazing quarterback, but this did look like a functional NFL offence, which it has not done for a lot of the season, and I will be as curious to see what this team does in the offseason with the construction of the roster as where the franchise will actually play its games.

The Buccaneers defence played well in the run game in terms of restricting Todd Gurley, which is not a surprise given that they were ranked fifth in rush defence by DVOA coming into this game. However, they were not that sure in their tackling, and had problems dealing with the shifty Austin. No one really stood out, although Gerard McCoy flashed, but he has not hit the lofty heights that we have come to expect given his performance in previous seasons. They have however, begun to look like they can make Lovie Smith’s Tampa Two defence effective, which seemed to be a real question earlier this season and they will be hoping to build on that next year.

The Buccaneers offence in contrast, had some good performances, but the yardage gained hides the fact that they got very little going in the first half, gave the ball away twice and could have lost the ball again if they had not recovered one of their fumbles. It was odd in that to start the game they tried to rely on their run game as they have much for the season, but whilst Doug Martin ran the ball effectively, Jameis Winston kept missing his receivers with throws that were too high. In fact Winston had this problem crop up through much of the game, but it was particularly prevalent in the early part of the game and led to difficulties maintaining drives. In the second half, and particularly in the fourth quarter the Buccaneers were able to get things going, and Winston was able to make some big plays with his arm, particularly to receiver Mike Evans who had an impressing one hundred and fifty-seven yard game from nine receptions, although he was targeted seventeen times. The one interception Winston did have was a bad read as he failed to take account of a dropping corner, but he has been much better in his first season than many feared and if they can get him some more options and improve his offensive line then the Buccaneers definitely have a quarterback for the foreseeable future.

There is no doubting the talent on the Rams defence, but it has rarely been able to get everyone playing well at the same time. The particularly impressive player for them in this game was Aaron Donald, who may not have had any sacks, but did get two tackles for a loss as well as three quarterback hits whilst causing all kinds of problems for the Buccaneers offensive line. It should not be possible for a defensive tackle as large as Donald to move as quickly as he does, but he also possesses the strength to shed blockers to make tackles in the run game, and in his second year is making a case to be included in the conversation with the other defensive greats.

In the end the Rams ran out comfortable winners in this one, but I am not sure it will be enough to save Jeff Fisher his job, whilst the improvement the Buccaneers have made this season should mean that Lovie Smith gets another year to continue the rebuilding job in Tamp Bay

I want to write a little about the coaching tape I watched this week before moving onto our picks for week fifteen. I was looking at the way that Cardinals use safeties Deone Bucannon and Tyrann Mathieu, which is pretty much how I outlined last week, but it is still impressive to see on tape.

For Bucannon, although listed as a safety he really does play as one of their linebackers, using his movement skills to avoid blocks and make plays. Not only did he force a fumble and recover it, but he was able to tackle Adrian Peterson in the backfield, and was second in tackles only to Tyrann Mathieu.

If Bucannon is exceptional because of the position he is playing given his size, then Tyrann Mathieu demonstrates an amazing flexibility in the way he is used around the Cardinals defence. He basically lines up as either a safety or slot corner, and is usually around the line of scrimmage, but from there he can exploit his athleticism either rushing towards the play, or drop into coverage. In the Cardinals blitz heavy scheme he frequently rushes from the slot corner position or from the line, and was able to get pressure on the QB multiple times. The pass play I mentioned in last week’s write up where Mathieu batted down a ball behind the line of scrimmage was actually coming off such a slot corner blitz, and given that Teddy Bridgewater was looking left as the ball was snapped, I would guess hat Mathieu either keyed off that or adjusted his blitz angle in case the ball came out early, and it was this that allowed him get a hand to the ball.

Overall what I appreciated about the Cardinals defensive scheme was that they have collected a number of good athletes and are putting them in a position to make the most of their physical gifts whilst giving themselves flexibility in an era where offences are becoming increasingly multiple and aggressive in the pass game. I don’t know if there are going to be other teams that copy them, but the principle of having that much coverage ability combined with aggressive pressure is one we may well see copied, if perhaps with different types of personnel.

Finally we go on to the rest of our week fifteen picks, with Dan and I both going 1-1 so far.

Falcons @ Jagaurs (-3.5)

The points scare me because despite the improvement of the Jaguars this season, they are still not reliable week to week, but they are coming off a win where they scored fifty points whilst the Falcons are on a horrendous run of losses. I don’t see the Falcons ending that run on the road in Jacksonville this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Jaguars

Bills @ Washington (+0.5)

It feels like I have been wrong about this Washington season all year, but with the Bills falling from playoff contention thanks to last week’s loss and their continued ill discipline which seems to be a feature of Rex Ryan’s teams, I think that Washington will win this game as they try to stay in the NFC East race. The worry is that Washington has been inconsistent on both sides of the ball, but they have been better at home and with something to play for I will take the half point that doesn’t really mean anything.

Gee’s Pick:      Washington
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Bears @ Vikings (-5.5)

The Chicago Bears have been better than most thought they would be this season, but the Vikings put up a very credible performance against a very good Cardinals team in Arizona and will hopefully be healthier after the extra rest. Their defence has been good all year and was solid last week despite missing some of its best players, and they will want to get their season back on track in this divisional game and I think they will. They might not cover the points, but I think the Vikings are the better team so that’s the way I am going.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Titans @ Patriots (-14.5)

The points make me pause, but the Titans are on the road and do not have the players around rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota to compete with the Patriots given the return of Rob Gronkowski and what he means to their offence. The Titans only scored one touchdown against the Jets last week, and that was a trick play, so I don’t see them doing much in their second game on the road in a row, so whilst I should pick the Titans because of the points, I just can’t bring myself to do it.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick:      Patriots

Texans @ Colts (-1.5)

The AFC South is in such a state that two teams with 6-7 records are playing for the division lead, with both of them starting backup quarterbacks. There is very little to hang your hat on in this game, but the Texans at least have JJ Watt and a defence that has been coming on in the second half of the season even if they did struggle against the Patriots last week, so that’s what I will put my trust in for this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick:      Texans

Chiefs @ Ravens (+7.5)

The Chiefs are on one of the hottest streaks in the NFL at the moment, which is a testament to the job head coach Andy Reid did in keeping this team together through their 1-5 start that easily could have wrecked their season. The Ravens have been specialising in close games for much of the season, even if they had been losing most of them, but the injuries finally passed a point where they could compete and lost badly last week. I think that the Chiefs offence will be better this week for not playing in horrendous conditions, and will cover the points in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:      Chiefs

Panthers @ Giants (+5.5)

This game has one of the matchups of the year with Panther’s corner Josh Norman likely going up against Odell Beckham. There is a lot of buzz about how the Giants love playing these kinds of games and upsetting good teams, but this Giants team is not like the one that beat the Patriots in two Super Bowls. Those teams may have come good at the end of the year, but they also had a fearsome pass rush and more to hang their hat on than Eli Manning getting hot. Yes the Manning to Beckham connection is effective, but this week they go up against one of the best defences in the league, and whilst the injuries the Panthers suffered last week worry me, I don’t see the Giants really being able to compete. This probably means the Giants will win as it’s hard to predict that the Panthers really will go undefeated, but I’m not prepared to pick against them this week despite needing them to win by six points on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Browns @ Seahawks (-14.5)

I feel like I am picking a lot of sides giving away a lot of points this week, and they surely can’t all come in, but despite the Browns getting a win last week, I don’t see them repeating the trick as they travel from Cleveland to Seattle. The Seahawks defence is still very good, and with their offence now finding an effective passing game I’m not even worried about the loss of rookie running back Thomas Rawls in this one. I’m backing the Seahawks to run out convincing winners at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Packers @ Raiders (+3.5)

I think I am changing my mind on this one in that on the podcast I said I was not convinced by the Packers, having had false dawns before this season in terms of things turning consistently round on offence, and the Raiders have played well for large parts of the season even if they do make young team mistakes. However, with Mike McCarthy taking back play calling duties last week, and a faith that they will not allow Khalil Mack to get five sacks like the Broncos did last week, I think the Packers may well cover this one even if the half point does make me nervous.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Bengals @ 49ers (+4.5)

The 49ers defence seems to play better at home that than they do on the road, but they just lost to the Cleveland Brown and their rush defence is near the bottom of the league. I know what Hue Jackson is saying about the game plan this week, and to some extent I believe him as I didn’t think it was a bad display by AJ McCarron against the Steelers last week, but a young quarterback’s best friend is the run game, which fits the tactical situation of this game and so I think the Bengals will run on the 49ers a lot. It may well be a close game, but I am choosing to take a page out of Dan’s giant book of optimism and back my team to cover this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Broncos @ Steelers (-6.5)

This line is tricky for me in that whilst the Broncos offence stuttered last week, they still have a really good defence. The Steelers have a great set of receivers, and this should be a really good game, but the Broncos could well slow the Steelers down. I think they can for a while, but this Steelers team are just so good at the moment, and whilst I think I would pick differently if this game was in Denver, I am backing the Steelers in Pittsburgh to win and maintain the pressure on the Bengals because that’s what happens in the AFC North.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Dolphins @ Chargers (-1.5)

There have been comments coming out of the Chargers locker room that they are aware this could be the team’s last game in San Diego and they are desperate for a win. I think the Dolphins might be close to being a good team than some would have you believe, but they have not been good this season. However, I am not sure the Chargers should be favourites against many given how their season has been, and there has been very little home field advantage for them this season so I will join Dan back on Dolphins Island this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Cardinals @ Eagles (+3.5)

The Cardinals continue to get wins with a good defence and explosive offence, whilst the Eagles have been uneven all season and I simply don’t trust them. So even thought the Cardinals are on the road in Philadelphia, I am backing them to cover the points in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Cardinals

Lions @ Saints (-2.5)

The Lions lost for a second week in the row, and it seems that being eliminated from the playoffs has stifled their little recovery. They are still playing better than they were, but then again so are the Saints. Their defence was not as bad last week as it has been all season, and they ran out convincing winners against the Buccaneers. This leaves me in something of a quandary, particularly as the Buccaneers were pretty convincingly beaten by the Rams on Thursday, but I am going for the team with the better record who are playing at home whilst keeping my fingers crossed.

Gee’s Pick:      Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints