NFL Week 2 Steelers @ Ravens Recap

14 Sunday Sep 2014

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This week I wrote myself into picking the Steelers, my first instinct being that I couldn’t see the Ravens losing their opening two games. However, as I wrote up my pick, I overreacted to the opening games and the swirl of press around the Ravens, so I took the Steelers as the known quantity. I was wrong.

I’m still amazed, that a team that is usually so well run as the Ravens dropped the ball so horrendously in the Ray Rice case. From what the press are saying, Ray Rice didn’t deceive them about what happened, so it was only when the video was leaked and it became a perception issue did the leadership of the team finally taking action. This is just not good enough.

So what did the coach’s tape tell me about this game? My focus for these teams were for the Steelers centre Maurkice Pouncey and rookie linebacker Ryan Shazier; whilst for the Ravens it was their offensive line, Terrell Suggs, and Torrey Smith.

Usually these games are close, but the Ravens came out twenty point winners. On my first watch of the condensed broadcast feed I was impressed with how much better the Ravens offence played, the o-line was good with free agent signings Steve Smith and Owen Daniels looking good. Their defence held up very well, not conceding a touchdown with only Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell catching the eye for the Steelers. The other thing I noticed was the nine penalties for seventy five yards that the Steelers gave away, of which a lot were on defence and whilst I appreciate tough defence, the Steelers are going to have to adapt to the new NFL rules if they’re going to get back to the playoffs.

As far as Maurkice Pouncey went, I am not an expert on line play, but although he looked athletic, he was helped out a lot by the guards as singled up against a tackle he seemed prone to being driven back. However, he was often helped out so this wasn’t a problem and it’ll be interesting to see how this stacks up against other centres as I get to spend more time watching coaching tape. I will say that I was very impressed with left guard Ramon Foster, and it will be nice to be able to vote for Pro Bowl players on the lines with a bit more knowledge.

It is often said that it can take a couple of seasons to bed in a linebacker into Dick LeBeau’s defence, but Ryan Shazier has come in to start straight away. Playing at the weak inside linebacker sport, the Steelers are trying to make the best of his speed and he certainly showcased that several time. He also looks to be a good tackler, making a couple of very solid open field tackles. There were a couple of times where he filled a hole but missed the tackle or made what looked a bad decision to cut through the line, but his is a rookie and I’m only just starting to look at the tape so I don’t know how common this is. I think the Steelers have the making of really good player here, and with Timmons next to him they look set at inside linebacker. My concern for them on defence is that there are still a lot of older players out there and I didn’t see much from their defensive line or outside backers that jumped off the tape.

As a bonus player focus, Antonio Brown really caught my eye on offense, running some very nice routes whilst catching seven balls for ninety yards and was much better than I realised.

For the Ravens, the o-line looked very solid and whilst nothing really leapt out, they did a really good job of protecting Flacco and running the ball. I was meant to be focussing on Torrey Smith, but frankly on this week’s tape he was supplanted by Steve Smith. Torrey managed a good play to draw a pass interference call on the Ravens’ first drive that lead to a touchdown, but he only had one catch for ten yards. However, Steve Smith seems to have become Flaccos new go to receiver catching six balls for seventy one yards, playing with a recognisable fire and finding holes in the coverage.

The final thing I want to mention about the Ravens’ offence is that part of Flacco’s trouble last year was losing Dennis Pitta for much of the season as he is often Flacco’s safety valve. The tight end is becoming a key position in the modern NFL and between Pitta, and Owen Daniels who comes in already knowing new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak’s system, the Raven looks well set for the season barring injuries.

On defence, I was focussing on Terrell Suggs, who can often be identified by his side on stance at outside linebacker. He looked to have a solid game, but was outshined by Elvis Dumervil who had two sacks, first going round right tackle Marcus Gilbert to get the Ravens first sack of the season, and for his second going straight through Gilbert again in a seriously impressive play.

The other play that was pretty amazing, was watching a player of Halot Ngata’s size (six foot four and well over 300 Ibs) leap up in the air to tip a ball, locate it, and then dive to make the interception. It really shouldn’t be possible for someone that big to move like that.

In conclusion, the Ravens played a lot better this week and I think that there’ll be in contention for the AFC North all season as they stand now. I’m worried about how the Steelers are run, between their cap management in recent year, their age, and their adaptation to the modern NFL. I see them as a shade down in standard than the Ravens, but as I can see the Bengals joining these two teams at 1-1 this week, so I wouldn’t count them out yet.

NFL Week 2 Picks

11 Thursday Sep 2014

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So after the week 1 picks I am a single game ahead of Dan. I’m happy that both of our teams won their first game and my favourite pick of last week was getting the Texans (-2.5) over Washington right. So here are our picks for week 2.

Steelers @ Ravens (-2.5)

The Steelers were run close by the Browns last week, but I think the Browns will do this to a few teams over the course of the season so I am not too worried about that. The Ravens’ offence, and Flacco in particular, seemed to be misfiring against the Bengals, and that was before the whirlwind of attention that now surrounds them. I don’t know if the players will rally round each other or fall apart so I’m picking the known quantity and taking the points.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Dan’s Comment: – The Browns took the Steelers really close in Week one, but I can’t see Baltimore doing the same this week.

Falcons @ Bengals (-5.5)

I said last week that the Saints @ Falcons game was probably a trap, and then I walked straight into it. In fairness, I think that this is a mistake that a lot of people made. The Falcons looked really good with Matt Ryan reminding people of just what a good quarterback he can be. The Bengals made a good start to their season with a win in Baltimore. I didn’t like the red zone woes that led to five field goals, but the touchdown to win was what this team needs to win in the playoffs, they have to perform under pressure. I see this as a close game that the Bengals will win, but I think the Falcons will cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Dan’s Comment: – Difficult to pick this one, I think it’ll be close.

Dolphins @ Bills (+0.5)

I thought that the Dolphins were in for a good season, but I hadn’t accounted for the Patriots woes travelling to Miami and whilst I begrudge losing a point to Dan based on a pick of blind hope, I’m still happy for him. The Bills had a good win against the Bears, but I don’t know if I trust them or how much of their win was good play, and how much was problems with the Bears. Right now I trust the Dolphins more and so that’s where I’m picking.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Dan’s Comment: – We beat the Patriots last week so the Bills should be a walk-over…!

Saints @ Browns (+6.5)

The Saints lost a game last week in overtime, but there was a bad interception and a fumble from their offence. We know who they this team are on that side of the ball and I don’t see them having those problems again. However, the Browns covered their spread last week, have a tough defence and whilst I think they will fall short of a win, I think they might just cover in a loss.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Cowboys @ Titans (-3.5)

Last week I was rewarded by not trusting the Cowboys. The narrative surrounding them before the season was that their offence was going to be good because it had to be. However, although offensive their line looked good, Tony Romo did not, and the Cowboys were 21-3 down before the end of the first quarter. This shouldn’t necessarily be surprising as Romo’s own QB coach was saying in preseason that his deep ball didn’t look good and that it was due to his back. Their defence did play a little better than expected, but at the risk of overreacting to week 1, I think it is going to a pretty miserable season for the Cowboys. The Titans came out last week and were better than solid. Jake Locker did some good things, they have a good set of young receivers and they took care of the Kansas City Chiefs whilst playing in one of the more difficult stadiums for visiting teams. I think I know which way this game is going.

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Lions @ Panthers (-2.5)

The Panthers won last week despite having Cam Newton held out, their defence continued to be great and they were better than many feared. However, the Lions also got off to a good start with a good win over the Giants. I haven’t really got a great feel for either team, but the early numbers from Football Outsiders has the Lions three places above the Panthers, combine this with getting points and I’m going with the Lions again.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Patriots @ Vikings (+3.5)

The Patriots’ long term line coach retires, the Patriots trade away Logan Mankins, and they have line problems with Brady picking himself off the ground more than usual. I don’t know if these things are actually connected, but they feel like they are. I’m fighting myself a little as Coach Belichick doesn’t lose consecutive games often, but I think I’m taking the points again. The Vikings looked good, Norv Turner made excellent use of Cordarrelle Patterson and Mike Zimmer know how to build defences. I could regret this, but I’m backing the Vikings at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Dan’s Comment: -Fingers crossed for an early fall-apart for the Patriots!

Cardinals @ Giants (-1.5)

I’m surprised the Giants are giving points and not getting them I’ve seen nothing on either side of the ball to make me thing that there going to have anything but a difficult year. The Cardinals however, are looking pretty good, being solid on both sides of the ball and I think they are going to win this one handily.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Jaguars @ Washington (-5.5)

The Jaguars came out and were 17-0 up at half time against the Eagles and whilst they didn’t cover, they showed the promise I thought was building in Jacksonville and given that number of points I would pick them again. This week they come up against a Washington team that I think are struggling, and whilst I think they may progress during the season, I don’t think this is going to be a quick process and so for the second straight week I’m picking the Jaguars.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Rams @ Buccaneers (-5.5)

There is so much talent in the front seven of the Rams and I think their pass rush is really good, but they are also dead last in the early season rankings at Football Outsiders and got beaten convincingly by the Vikings last week. The Buccaneers didn’t win as I thought they would, but I think that is partly because the Panthers were not as bad as many predicted, and whilst they’re only four places higher than the Rams according to Football Outsiders, they are a pretty whopping 49.3 percentage points ahead.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Dan’s Comment: – I’ll put this out there – I think this’ll be a terrible game.

Seahawks @ Chargers (+5.5)

I was so impressed with the Seahawks last week, and even though they do have an impressive home advantage, I can’t look past them in this game. I think the Chargers have a really good offence and are in for a great year, but I think the Seahawks will win this game and continue to be the team to beat.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick       Seahawks

Chiefs @ Broncos (-13.5)

Oh the poor Chiefs. I think I was just wrong on this one, they lost two starters on defence to achilles tears during the game, and Alex Smith started throwing interceptions. I think their start of the season was pretty disastrous, they need to run Jamaal Charles more, and going to the Broncos is not the place where they can start turning their season round. The Broncos started the season really well and in this game I’m only worried about the number of points they’re giving.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick       Broncos

Jets @ Packers (-8.5)

The Packers had problems on the line, but were facing an exceptional defence in a very difficult stadium to play in. I don’t think it is panic time yet, but the question is whether their defence can be good enough for them to win games as the offence will do better most weeks. The Jets won against the Raiders but the score wasn’t exceptional, and whilst my instinct is that Rex Ryan will find a way to keep it close, their secondary is the polar opposite to the Seahawks and I think that Rodgers will get their season going. I may regret this but I’ll go against the points this time.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick       Packers

Dan’s Comment: – Packers out for revenge this week. Heavy win in week two.

Texans @ Raiders (+2.5)

The Texans got their season off to a win, even without Jadeveon Clowney who went down with a meniscus tear. This is because JJ Watt is just amazing, and whilst there are still question about their offence, I know which way I’m going with this game. I think there are signs that things might turn around for the Raiders, but whilst they may have a strong showing, I don’t think they have enough to beat the Texans.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick       Texans

Bears @ 49ers (-7.5)

I hate the line for this game. The Bears struggled in week 1, demonstrating how much their good health on offence helped them last season, and reminding us of some of dangers in Cutler’s decision making. The 49ers had a good win against the Cowboys, but the injuries and suspensions still means they could have problems and I’m not sure how much we really learnt in week 1 due to the Cowboys’ problems. I think the 49ers will win this game, but I’m worried about the points. I’m going with my first instincts thought so I’m taking the home team.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick       Bears

Eagles @ Colts (-2.5)

I underestimated just how good Andrew Luck is, but the team has just lost its best pass rusher before he can even play a game and I’m still not convinced by them overall. The Eagles may be shuffling their offence line and Nick Foles has begun to return to a human number of interceptions, but they stuck an unanswered 34 points on the Jaguars in the second half last week and I remain a believer in Chip Kelly.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick       Colts

Dan’s Comment: – Colts took the Broncos much closer than people expected last weekend so maybe another good game with the Eagles.

The Domestic Violence Problem in the NFL

10 Wednesday Sep 2014

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It has been a slightly strange week, and I am meant to be writing my Week 2 Picks blog, but I don’t feel I can get started until I have addressed something that simply can’t be ignored. I’ll get back to writing about my competition with Dan and what’s going on around the league shortly, but first I have to address the recent news surrounding the Baltimore Ravens.

It is not actually news that the NFL has a problem with women. The league’s handling of previous incidences of domestic violence has not exactly been progressive, and the two game ban that was given to Ray Rice this summer was widely criticised at the time. I have not watched the video of him dragging his unconscious, then fiancé now wife, out of an elevator. Nor have I watched the video released on Monday by TMZ that showed him punching his wife to render her unconscious. Finally stung into action, the Baltimore Ravens have released him from their roster and the NFL have belatedly suspended him indefinitely, whilst they figure out what they can do. I have no wish to watch these videos; the bare facts in words are enough information for me.

I have a lot of thoughts on this situation. Things to do with the rookie program, the structure of society, the actions of both the Ravens and the league, and the repeated incidents of still active NFL players. The problem is that I don’t feel qualified to write them yet. One of the famous tenants of the Hippocratic Oath is to do no harm. I had got as far as beginning to research guidance for writing about domestic violence before the events of Monday. I was already aware that I was skirting around the issue when writing about Rice’s suspension last week, but I had not had a chance to study the documents I had found properly, and frankly what the world needs least right now is another unqualified person sounding off.

Frankly this isn’t good enough. My sister in law writes frequently about feminism and her twitter feed (and by extension mine) is an education. I don’t know always know where I stand when reading these articles, and I am fairly certain that men telling women what to do, think, and behave is how we got into this mess in the first place, but, I do believe in equality. I believe there are structural problems in our society affecting many people who are not lucky enough to be white middle class men, and we have to address them.

What the NFL needs to do is to address the issue of domestic violence directly, not with a hastily brought out new domestic violence policy, but with people taking responsibility for their previous actions, and a proper review that involves talking to people who know the issues at hands intimately and know what the proper response is. There is an aspect of the culture that goes with the game that I love, that is simply not acceptable to anyone with a sense of fairness. It’s not unique to the sport of American Football, but that does not mean we shouldn’t make a stand. It means those of us who love the league, taking a long hard look at ourselves and fighting against those aspects that are abhorrent to us.

For me this means I have a lot of reading and research to do. This problem is not going to just go away and so I want to be in a position to write effectively and safely about it the next time it happens, and the next time, and then again, until hopefully one day we don’t have to do this any more because we really shouldn’t have to.

NFL Week 1: Packers @ Seahawks Recap

07 Sunday Sep 2014

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I thoroughly enjoyed the first game of the season. I have been through most of the coach’s tape, and it opens up a whole new world of things to look at, sadly I am limited by boring things like having a life, but here is what I took away from the game.

My things to watch list for these teams contained Aaron Rodgers, AJ Hawk, and Clay Mathews for the Packers; and for the Seahawks it was their secondary and Russell Wilson. I added watching how Julius Peppers would rush standing up as a linebacker.

We know that the Seahawks defence is good, but it really was excellent in this game. On the all twenty two tape it was easy to see how Earl Campbell sat deep and played the whole field, whilst the corners covered their side, and Kam Chancellor roved depending on the coverage called. Richard Sherman clearly had his receiver covered, but the Packers basically gave up on his side of the field as Rodgers hardly looked right all game. This was so obvious that I spotted it in the broadcast coverage whilst watching the condensed game, and it turns out that Sherman wasn’t targeted once all game. I can’t help but feel that you have to challenge Sherman somehow if you are going to beat the Seahawks, although I freely admit I wouldn’t know how.

You could see glimpses of what makes Rodgers so good, the arm, his manoeuvrability, but also that in being willing to hold onto the ball to make a pay, he takes sacks that he doesn’t have to. In fairness, the interception was not his fault, the ball bounced off the hands of his receiver and was well picked off by Byron Maxwell. The Packers struggled to move the ball and in the first half their two scores came from large chunks that were not successful plays on their part. The first came of a long pass interference call on Bobby Wagner and the second from recovered punt where Richared Sherman blocked his man into Earl Campbell, demonstrating that the pair of outstanding defensive backs are human after all.

The killer plays for the Packers were the two consecutive offensive plays in the third quarter where backup tackle Derek Sherrod gave up sacks. The first play was on fourth and five, with the Seahawks only rushing four and yet somehow they didn’t account for Cliff Avril at left defensive end, who came barely touched to sack Rodgers. There’s no way for me to know the play call or the protection, but although James Starks was on that right side of Rodgers in a shotgun formation, on the snap of the ball, after barely a pause, Starks runs a curl through the line, whilst Sherrod without having looked outside of him focuses on the tackle over him and then tries too late to stop Avril who is already past him. That’s the drive done and the Seahawks get the ball. The Seahawks don’t drive the ball successfully so after five plays they punt the ball. However, on the first play of the next drive, on the Packers own three yard line, Michael Bennet blows past Sherrod to get a strip sack that leads to a safety. These were not the first time that I saw Sherrod beaten this game, let’s hope this doesn’t become a long term problem.

The Packers do manage a nice drive in the fourth quarter to get a touchdown, with a failed two point conversion, but by then it is too late. We shouldn’t overreact to the first game of the season, it’s not exactly unprecedented for the Seahawks to be excellent on defence or beat teams handily at home, but it will be interesting to see how the Packers offence goes the rest of the season.

On offence for the Seahawks, I loved what they did with Russell Wilson, who is not your prototypical pocket passer and is only five foot eleven. However, he is very careful with the ball and the Seahawks put him in position to make plays, by using his manoeuvrability. The very real running threat make their read option plays dangerous, helped by just how good Marshawn Lynch is as a running back. This accounted for both of their first half touchdowns. The first was my favourite play on offence of the game. Russell Wilson first fakes the hand off to Marshawn Lynch then tucks the ball as if to run, but when corner Sam Shields bites on the play as a run, Wilson then pulls up and flips a pass to Ricardo Lockette who runs in the TD. For the second touchdown, Clay Mathews was staring into the backfield during the handoff, and gets sealed by the tight end Luke Williams coming across the line unseen so Mathews can’t make the tackle to stop Lynch running it in.

Marshawn Lynch is so good, very light on his feet and makes his cuts so well. I also love Eddie Lacy, whose cuts are so violent, but in this game he was bottled up by the Seahawks defence, but there were two great backs in this game.

It was harder to get a read on the Packers defence. Time will tell, but although I saw a couple of good plays from Peppers and Mathews, nothing really leapt at me. The one thing that the all twenty two did reveal on the Packers defence was how Percy Harvin got so open in the first half, which was when Morgan Burnett ran into linebacker AJ Hawk, allowing Harvin to get open for a thirty three yard gain.

Overall I wouldn’t be panicking just yet if I was a Packers fan, but I might be lowering my expectations a little after some of the bullish talk that was surrounding them during pre-season. The Seahawks looked like the team who have dominated at home in recent years and I expect them to go well again this season as long as they avoid the injury bug.

NFL Week 1 Picks

04 Thursday Sep 2014

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This year I will be attempting to pick all of the games against the spread as I find it a useful way of helping me confirm what I think about teams. It is also a useful way of demonstrating the dangers of gambling as it is very hard to get them right, and the NFL just isn’t that predictable. Thanks to the blog, I have roped in my friend Dan to be picking with me in a friendly competition (for the record his parting shot was, “Not this season as it’s my first time. Next season you’re going down!”) and we’re taking our lines from the ESPN Pigskin Pick’em so feel free to join us here and show us up.

Packers @ Seahawks (-5.5)

This game gave me a little pause, before I considered what the Seahawks did to the Broncos in the Super Bowl, the number of players they have coming back, and that they have one of the best home advantages in the league. The Packers are going to be good this season, but their defence needs to hold up for the entire season despite losing BJ Raji to injury already, and there are more on they way.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Saints @ Falcons (-1.5)

This one seems fairly straight forward and so is probably a trap, but the Saints looked really strong in preseason and the Falcons went 4-12 last season. The Falcons will be better this year, but I don’t think they’ll be starting the year with a win.

Gee’s Picke:    Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Bills @ Bears (-6.5)

I am worried about the Bills. I really didn’t like them moving up to grab a receiver when they’re not already a good team (frankly I don’t like giving up picks much anyway, but certainly not high picks), and they are not set at quarterback. I think they’re going to miss Mike Pettine as their defensive coordinator so I can see that side of the ball taking a step back. There are problems with the Bears defence, but they’ll be better than last year and the offence will be good again as long as Cutler can stay on the field so for me this is an easy pick this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick       Bears

Bengals @ Ravens (-2.5)

I suspect that I am going to be wrong both ways on the Bengals all season depending on how they go and my fan reaction to it, but I believe that they’re going to be good. I respect the way that the Ravens are run, and I’m sure they will be better this year, but I think Flacco is overpaid for his production, I’m not sure about their offensive line, and with Ray Rice suspended, I think their offence is going to struggle. And I’m getting points!

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick       Bengals

Dan’s Comment: – “This’ll be extremely close. I could see that one going either way.”

Browns @ Steelers (-5.5)

I think the Browns are going to be a tough side to beat this year as their defence was good last year, and with Pettine as their head coach I think they will be better. However, with Josh Gordon suspended and the mess at quarterback I don’t see them improving their record much. I don’t like the way the Steelers have managed their cap in recent years, which feels weird to say for a franchise that historically has been so well run, but they’ve held on to too many of their guys on big contracts. Still, Tomlin is a good coach, I love Dick LeBeau as a coordinator and I think they will be there or there about all season. I think the Browns will be good for some underdog covers, but not this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick       Steelers

Dan’s Comment: – “I don’t think the Johnny Football effect will be enough for Browns to pick up the Win in this one.”

Titans @ Chiefs (-6.5)

A lot of people are saying that this is a regression season for the Chiefs, and I can see the argument due to their easy schedule last year and some of the things that have happened so far this year. However, although no one likes picking him, Alex Smith wins games; Dontari Poe is one of my favourite defensive players; and Jamaal Charles is a beast. There are problems with receivers, but I’m not scared of this team. On the other side, I have no feel for the Titans at all and whilst they may well be solid, I’m going to need to see more from them before I pick them. I’m worried about the points, and I may regret this, but I’m going with the Chiefs.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick       Chiefs

Raiders @ Jets (-4.5)

I think the Raiders are in for another tough season, but I was interested to see that they’re starting Derek Carr, and combined with Khalil Mack, that makes two interesting reasons to look at the Raiders. How long has it been since you could say that? However, whilst there are questions about their pass defence and Geno Smith’s development, the Jets should have enough to cover those points.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick       Jets

Dan’s Comment: – “I feel horrible going for the Jets here, but just can’t see the Raiders getting out of the blocks before about week 3.”

Vikings @ Rams (-6.5)

That’s a lot of points for the Rams and they don’t have their starting quarterback. Their defence is going to be tough with a terrific pass rush, but it’s going to be a long season for the Rams. I have no idea what the Vikings’ record is going to be like, but I think Mike Zimmer will have them playing much better and I think this is a good way for them to start the season.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick       Vikings

Dan’s Comment: – “Easy win for the Vikings this week (which will make my dad very happy!)”

Patriots @ Dolphins (+3.5)

The Dolphins are another team that I think are on the rise, but I’m not sure how that is going to translate in terms of their record. The Patriots however, had a nice offseason and the Dolphins do not have the best home record, which may change but not in this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick       Dolphins

Dan’s Comment: – “Dolphins picked out of pure blind hope!”

Jaguars @ Eagles (-11.5)

I’m all in on Chip Kelly, and I think the Eagles are going to have a great year and I’m looking forward to seeing them. I also think that Gus Bradley is doing a good job of turning round the Jaguars and whilst I’m not predicting a playoff record, I think they will be tough team to play. I think the Eagles win, but I’m going for the Jaguars to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick       Eagles

Washington @ Texans (-2.5)

I’m not convinced by Washington. I’m not at all sure about their defence and the new offensive scheme is taking time to bed in as RG3 have never been asked to be a pocket passer before. I don’t know if this is going to work out or not, but I don’t think it is going to happen in week 1. The Texans have Ryan Fitzpatrick and this should scare me, but they also have JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney. I repeat, JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney! This maybe my excitement over those two on the same team getting the better of me, but I think there’s too much talent on this team for a repeat of last years record. Again, I’m not saying playoffs, but I think the turnaround starts here.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick       Washington

49ers @ Cowboys (+4.5)

I think the 49ers are in for a tough year. They lost players, have important players suspended, and have been to the last three conference championship games. I think they are too deep and too well run to have a disaster, but they are in a division where they will beat the hell out of each other. The Cowboys are relying on their offence this year as the already bad defence has got worse. I’m really not sure what is going to happen in this game, and I should take the points, but I trust the 49ers and not the Cowboys. I think the 49ers will win this one and I’m hoping by enough points.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick       49ers

Panthers @ Buccaneers (+1.5)

I like the Buccaneers this year. These are another of my improved teams, this one being a major potential case of WARM or wins above Raheem Morris, a faux statistical term invented by Bill Simmons to cover a team’s improvement accounted for by having a competent coach follow the firing of a bad one. Last year’s Chiefs were a great example of this and I think under Lovie Smith, a proven coach the Bucs will take big steps forward. The Panthers on the other hand, have walked into a salary cap nightmare after making the playoffs last season. Their line is bad, their receivers are bad and I think they are going to take a step back this year, starting in Tampa this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick       Panthers

Colts @ Broncos (-6.5)

The Broncos appear to have looked at the tape of the Super Bowl, taken note and addressed their defence and what went wrong, having themselves what looks like a really good offseason. This maybe the year where age catches up with Peyton Manning, but he’s earned our trust until he can’t do it any more. The Colts might be covering more holes with Andrew Luck’s great play than many realise. This is a team that traded away a first round pick for the Brown’s possible first round bust in Trent Richardson. In the modern NFL, you don’t need to pick running backs in the first round, yet alone effectively have two teams do it. I could be wrong on this as you shouldn’t underestimate Andrew Luck, but I don’t think so this time.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick       Colts

Dan’s Comment: – “I think the Broncos will win, but there’ll be less than a TD in it!”

Giants @ Lions (-4.5)

I don’t trust either of these teams. The Giants are a shell of themselves, the offence is a work in progress and Eli Manning might not be a serviceable quarterback anymore. The Lions had a golden chance to win their division last year, and blew it with their characteristic ill disciplined play. A team that is loaded with talent, they would be a prime candidate for a WARM revival, but Jim Caldwell doesn’t’ exactly inspire confidence. However, there is still a lot of talent so whilst I may regret going against the points, I’m going with the talent.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick       Giants

Chargers @ Cardinals (-3.5)

I am not as down on the Cardinals as some appear to be. There defence seemed to hold up pretty well against the Bengals in preseason despite it’s losses and there some interesting receiver prospects lining up to follow Fitzgerald, but they still have Carson Palmer facing some serious defences (and pass rushes) just in their own division. However, I think the Chargers are going to be good again this year. A defence that is likely to improve towards league average from their 32nd ranking in defensive DVOA and an offence that is likely to stay good. I’m pretty confident of a Chargers win even before I get points

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick       Chargers

Dan’s Comment: “Not a great season predicted for the Cardinals I’m afraid!”

So that’s our first week ready to go, let’s see how things pan out in the games.

Michael Sam signed to a Practice Squad

03 Wednesday Sep 2014

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I am really pleased to see that Michael Sam has been signed to the practice squad of the Dallas Cowboys. Although he didn’t jump out at me in the games I saw, it was hard to focus on his play on the standard broadcast view that I was limited to, and I thought that with the number of sacks and tackles he recorded, he was worth a place in the league somewhere and boy do the Cowboys need pass rushing options.

I don’t know if he’ll make it onto the field, but he’s earned more time to get there and I hope it works out for him.

Surge in British demand for more NFL information

03 Wednesday Sep 2014

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I’m not surprised about this, but it’s an interesting trend, maybe we will get a franchise.

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The Wall Street Journal’s CMO Today blog has an interesting piece on how digital traffic indicates the growing interest in NFL outside of the United States. It shows that www.nfl.com now receives 19% of traffic from outside the US, with UK visitor numbers doubling in the last two years. Nearly 11% of traffic to wwe.gamepass.nfl.com come from the UK, with a further 7% from Germany. Find out more here.

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NFL Preseason: My Review

01 Monday Sep 2014

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So as the new season approaches and the rosters settle down, let’s take a look at what I learnt this preseason. 

Overall I didn’t get to see every game for all four teams, but I did see each team at least twice, and I’ve even picked up a couple of extra teams due to how the schedule fell. There is no coaching tape for the preseason and this has only highlighted to me how much I am going to want to look at it during the season. I watch the condensed games as I only have so much time, and have had to dip into the broadcast several times to pick out plays or get better angles to identify lineman. It has been occasionally hard to pick out particular players on the lines unless something obviously good or bad has happened, and I’d like to take a much closer look at receiver and DB overages than I have been able to.

I will be briefly talking about headline figures from the excellent Football Outsider Almanac 2014, which provide advanced statistical analysis of the NFL and are well worth an investigation.

So in alphabetical order here are the four teams I’ve looked at:

 

Bengals

The Bengals went 11-5, and like all the teams I’ve looked at this was within one win of the Pythagorean win projection for 2013 that Football Outsiders provided. Their total for this season is 8.8 with a strong score for the 8-10 win range. 

I’ve enjoyed watching the team this season for the most part. I was interested to read about Andy Dalton’s offseason and the early signs to me are that his work with a throwing coach, his extra time with the receivers and the new offense is paying off. I thought he looked sharp and there were several nice long plays. I was also happy to see Mohamed Sanu step up and play well with Marvin Jones sidelined currently with a broken foot, I certainly think he’s capable of playing as the second receiver.

It quickly became apparent that Jeremy Hill was a good pick up for the run game and it was not a surprise that Green-Ellis got cut. Cedric Peerman also looked good, although I’m not sure how much time in the offense he will see. The rookie Russell Bodine slotted in straight away as the starter at centre, seeing more playing time than usual as they bedded him in. Also noticeable for his good play was the undrafted rookie Ryan Hewitt who made the team as an H-back and blocked well.

The defense has looked good, with possibly a few more blitzes but we’ll know for sure once the season starts rolling. I was also impressed with the improvement of Estonian Margus Hunt in his second year, who seems to have settled in to playing left end and it will interesting to see how he goes throughout the year.

Roll on the Ravens in week one.

 

Dolphins 

I was pleasantly surprised by the Dolphins, and not just by their uniforms, which are right up their with the Charger’s powder blues for the nicest in the NFL. They went 8-8 last season, but Football Outsiders has their win figure going back to 6.5 this year. I think this is likely to be to do with the teams around them, rather than their team, which I think is looking up.

The good news is that I like the design of their new offence and at time it looked pretty crisp. However, despite the improvement from the mess of last year, their line still seemed to not be giving Tannehill a clean pocket to work in. I also thought that Tannehill seemed to be playing better and going through his progressions, although as soon as I thought that he locked onto a receiver and threw an interception, without looking at the other side of the field where he had an open check down.

On defence they looked pretty stout and had a decent pass rush that hopefully will stand them in good stead. 

The problem I think will continue to be the way the front office runs the team. There were five players that really caught my eye and four of them were undrafted rookie free agents. Unfortunately, Kamal Johnson has gone on injured reserve and is done for the year, but running backs Orleans Darkwa and Damien Williams both made the team, as did defensive tackle Anthony Johnson. It is good that these players were picked up, but you would hope that the players they drafted would have caught the eye more.

Sadly, although fifth year receiver Damian Williams made the 53 man roster initially, he was later released for depth at other positions despite making some good plays, I wonder if he’ll get picked up somewhere else, but not so far.

My worry for this team is whether the plan that is shaping up in Miami will be given enough time to go somewhere, but I do see some potential.

The scouting report from my friend Dolphins Dan, offensive line looks better but Tannehill needs to work on his long ball connection with Wallace to get more comfortable. I wouldn’t disagree.

 

Rams 

There can only be one place to start my summary of the Rams, and that is with sympathy for Sam Bradford, who was looking pretty solid in the time I got to see him play before he was lost for the year. Losing your starting quarterback for the year is pretty much the worse outcome for your preseason whatever else is happening.

Last year the Rams went 7-9, but although losing Bradford is a blow, they were missing him for nine games last year so all may not be lost. Certainly on defence they look excellent in the front seven. My favourite play of the preseason was Robert Quinn going round Joe Thomas of the Browns for a sack and barely being touched, it was pro-bowler on pro-bowler crime that’s well worth checking out if you have NFL Gamepass.

On offense I was impressed by rookie running back Trey Watts, but was worried by left tackle Jake Long who I saw beaten twice before he gave up the play where Bradford got hurt. If Shaun Hill is to succeed as the starter he’ll need not to be worried about his blindside.

Michael Sam did not make the roster and of this moment hasn’t been signed to a practice squad having cleared waivers. He got sacks and tackles, but didn’t jump off the screen whilst I was watching, although I did enjoy him borrowing Manziel’s money celebration having sacked him. He couldn’t however, match up to the undrafted rookie Ethan Westbrook who could play more spots along the line and who made the team.

The Rams are in probably the toughest division in the league and so I fear it could be a long season for them.

 

Vikings 

The Vikings went 5-10-1 last year and have Pythagorean win total of 7.4, although their likelihood of being in 5-7 wins and 8-10 wins were within 1 percentage point.

As you would expect from Mike Zimmer, the defense looked pretty stout and whilst no one player jumped out at me, I think they’ll do pretty well.

I loved first time head coach Zimmer hiring Norv Turner to run the offense, as well as being someone to lean on who has also been a head coach. The hire also seems to be working out for that side of the ball with both Matt Cassell and Teddy Bridgewater looking good running the new offense. I was also impressed with receiver Cordelle Patterson and the play of full back Jerome Felton and I’m really looking forward to seeing Adrian Peterson cut loose with some more creative play calling.

I think that in a division with Aaron Rodgers, a resurgent Bears team and a talented Lions team that may finally have a coach who will get everything out of that talent, the Vikings might not have the record to match it, but I think Zimmer is going to make progress with this team compared to last year.

 

Bonus Teams 

I got to see the Chiefs and the Cardinals twice this season and a couple of things jumped out at me even though I wasn’t focussing on them.

Keep an eye out for De’Anthony Thomas on the Chiefs, I saw him run back a punt against the Bengals and he is seriously quick. He is seeing time at running back and receiver for the Chiefs and has changed his number from 1 to 13. On defence, I was reminded again of how good Dontari Poe is, he gets excellent penetration and I think he’s going to have a great season.

For the Cardinals, I was really impressed by their defence. They caused the Bengals first team offense real problems for the first four drives and I think they will do well. I was also impressed by Jaron Brown at receiver, although Larry Fitzgerald also looked like he has plenty left in the tank, even if it is unlikely he can live up to his enormous contract.

 

So there you have it, I have thoroughly enjoyed the preseason, but now the real fun begins. On to Week 1!

NFL Preseason: The Quaterback Question

28 Thursday Aug 2014

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Right now I feel like a second string corner trying to make the roster on special teams play and limited snaps in the defence. Whilst I’m on top of things in terms of following news, I have not watched as many games as I would have like to and we’re already getting into the first wave of cuts, the third week dress rehearsal games are over, but never the less I shall make the most of the reps that have been given to me. Torturous metaphor now over…

I’m writing about a big focus in football, although one that I’m not as obsessed with as most, namely quarterbacks. Everybody tends to agree that the quarterback is the most important player on a football team, and I am no different. But people do seem to give too much praise to a quarterback when the team wins and too much blame when the team loses. There’s no guaranteed way to find a quarterback, if we look at three of the marquee QBs in the league, Peyton Manning was the archetypal first pick of the draft, Drew Brees was picked at the start of the second round (overall 32), and famously Tom Brady was picked in the sixth round as the 199th player selected. It is easier to pick one early, but you don’t have to and last years Super Bowl winner was found in the third round. The trick is not just to pick the right player, but to develop them as well because apart from the tangibles of arm strength and size, a quarterback needs the study habits, familiarity with the offence, and the ability to find a way to be successful in the NFL. He has to anticipate what the defence the is doing, throw the ball through and incredibly tight window to a receiver who is not there yet and if he is just a beat slow, the ball gets intercepted and possible returned for points.

This preseason we’ve seen a couple of different approaches by teams trying to solve their quarterback conundrums. The Cleveland Browns took the step of picking the incredibly popular college star Johnny Manziel and announced that there was camp competition with their existing player Brian Hoyer. The Jaguars also picked a first round quarterback in Blake Bortles and immediately announced that he was going to sit behind veteran Chad Henne for the year.

I’m not one for absolutism, and whilst I agree with the idea that there is so much to learn that it is a good idea for a rookie QB to sit for a while, I’m not going to state that they should sit for a preset amount of time. When they’re ready they are ready, but the different approaches above highlight what can go wrong if a team doesn’t handle its quarterback situation well.

I don’t follow college football as there is only so much time in the world, I don’t really get the conference system, and there’s enough ethical questions around paying NFL players to endanger their long term health, without being fanatical about a feeder league that makes it a point of pride that their players aren’t paid. But even I had heard about some of Manziel antics in college, both on the field and off it. I dread to think how many words have been written about his offseason and I don’t want to go into it again in great detail, but the thing that’s interesting to me is this.

I don’t know how I would have reacted to being given a four year, 8.25 million dollar contract with roughly 7.9 million dollars guaranteed when I was twenty-one, but I suspect there might have had some bumps. The problem is, when you’re a key part of business that is worth somewhere between five hundred million and billion dollars, if not more, you don’t have a lot of wiggle room for poor results and bad decisions. The first few months of Manziel’s NFL career has not been a success, and in having a camp competition with no clear winner, but with Hoyer being getting the starter job through being the least bad option, the team do not have a clear leader of the team.

Now there’s nothing to say that being sat for the year would have prevented Manziel from giving Washington’s sideline the finger in the Browns’ second preseason game, but it might have helped. The Browns are in a mess and I think that between management and coaching, they have contributed to their own problems.

In Jacksonville however, we have the opposite problem as the good play of the rookie Bortles has some already suggesting he should be starting. However, Henne has also being playing well and the idea of throwing a rookie quarterback out into an NFL season behind a what is thought to be a shaky line seems like short term thinking. A good quarterback needs time to develop if they’re to have the long career that a team is hoping for when they invest a first round pick on a player. The problem is that the situation is still more complicated than that.

I’ve talked before about the importance of depth in the NFL, and the quarterback position is hardest nut to crack for this. You don’t have to have a top five quarterback to win a Super Bowl, but you do need a certain level of competency and there are not enough of this calibre of players for thirty two teams. That should give you an idea of how hard it is to play the position at the NFL level, but also shows why getting your quarterback situation set is so important, as it is unlikely that you will have a quality backup just waiting behind your starter ready to go.

So, you have to balance the risk of exposure to injury and the needs of the coach to win, against the development of your young quarterback, but you can do all of that and still not guarantee your player will turn out how you hope. We have just lost the Rams’ quarterback Sam Bradford to a season ending injury as he re-tore the ACL in his left knee. This could well be the end of Bradford’s tenure in St Louis as his cap figure for next year is too big given that he hasn’t been able to stay on the field. I feel so sorry for him as he clearly has a lot of talent and potential, but you can’t realise that if you can’t stay on the field.

So we’ve establishing that the quarterback position is complicated, but we haven’t got to a commonality with evaluating any player, which is scheme fit. One team’s star can be another player’s dud. I wrote earlier in my things to watch that I was interested to see how Robert Griffin was going to do playing for Jay Gruden, who at times seemed to ask Andy Dalton to do too much to win games last year with the Bengals. But although RG3 has the strong arm, he has not played as pocket passer before and the skills are different than being the dynamic dual threat that he was in his rookie year. Having been derailed by injury last year, we shall see how he fairs over the coming year.

So having distracted you with quarterbacks, and established that there is no simple answer in how to get one, I’m going back to games. Coming up next, a review of my preseason teams, cuts day is round the corner, we’re a week away from the season starting, and I for one can’t wait.

NFL Preseason Week 1 – What I Learnt

17 Sunday Aug 2014

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There’s an old saying that failure to plan is planning to fail. Well in my case, it wasn’t so much bad planning as life being in the way of the blog as I’ve been on holiday during the first week of preseason so I’ve only seen one game so far, firstly here’s what I’ve learnt so far about writing a blog on the NFL and watching games:

  1. I have a sheet of the things I want to look at for each team that I used for my previous article, and whilst watching games I realised that as well as having a list of players, I need their numbers so I can spot them quickly whether they get mentioned in commentary or not. So before I even start my remedial game study I need to get my watch sheet up to date.
  2. Have your notebook with you! I have watched the Hall of Fame game and I will go through a few things from that shortly, but having got myself a notebook for the season, it’s a good idea to have it with you.
  3. Have a second device, I tend to watch Gamepass on my tablet but following on from the need to having my cheat sheet ready, it’s also handy to have the team rosters handy, particularly in preseason where the younger players you might not have heard of are getting their chance.

So having revealed my incompetence, here’s what I took away from the New York Giants v Buffalo Bills in the Hall of Fame Game.

I liked the balance of the Giants offense, which given a feature of last year’s seemed to be a bad back foot throw from Eli Manning, can only be an improvement. I didn’t get to see too much of Eli but his backup, Ryan Nassib did seem to have some poise despite having the up and down performance of a backup. The real stars that popped out to me were in the running game with Rashad Jennings running solidly and the rookie Andre Williams really catching the eye with his pace and power.

For the Bills I’m worried already, Sammy Watkins failed to catch my eye or the ball. More worrying, was first EJ Manuel and then Jeff Tuel both seemed be fixing on their first receiver and Manuel in particular was so obvious where he was going that his balls kept getting batted down at the line.

I am now going to go grab my notebook and start working my way through my backlog of games for the Bengals, Dolphins, Vikings, and Rams. Plus if I get a chance, I might check out the Cardinals rookie QB Logan Thomas who is already getting buzz as being the best of the new quaterbacks.