Author Archives: gee4213

The Way Forward

26 Thursday Oct 2017

Posted by in Picks Competition, Thursday Night Football

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

It was a frustrating weekend for me as a Bengals fan, with a competitive game in the first half dwindling into failure as the Bengals offence stalled once again. We are still in the first half of the season but the 2-4 record feels very different to the 3-3 that was possible with a win. On its own it was not a particularly bad loss, the Bengals were playing one of the best teams in the AFC rounding into form and playing at home, but the frustration of a division loss seemed to signal the final death knell for any hope of a turnaround. That’s not to say that the Bengals can’t salvage something for themselves, but it feels like this cycle is done and although there are young developing players, particularly on defence, the offence continues to need work and I don’t see how things turn round this season. The offensive line just wasn’t good enough at the weekend, and whilst bad offensive lines are becoming more common in the NFL, the Bengals do not have a quarterback in Andy Dalton who can overcome this.

I am mindful of the change that Marvin Lewis has been responsible for over his tenure, and how the Bengals are no longer a laughing stock but it may be time for a fresh approach. Although a change doesn’t necessarily guarantee success and there is no shortage of teams struggling this season.

Still we are rapidly approaching the half way mark in the season and yet there seems to be a lot of teams for which we still have questions, two of which play tonight.

Gee:      Week 7   7-8                       Overall   60-47
Dan:       Week 7   11-4                     Overall   53-54

Dolphins @ Ravens (-3.5)

The quality of the Thursday night games have been better this season, with last week’s game being something of a cracker, but in this one we see one team with a backup quarterback visiting a team who may have their starter, but that starter looks like a shell of the QB who led the Baltimore Ravens to a Super Bowl win.

The Ravens have a huge injury list so their record may be understandable, but right now they are struggling and whilst the Miami Dolphins have not looked good doing it, they are on a three game win streak. We get to see how Matt Moore will do on a short week, but this line is just that bit too much for me to back the Ravens to cover. This could be a big mistake on a Thursday night game, but I am going to back the road team to at least be within four points.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Week Seven Picks

22 Sunday Oct 2017

Posted by in Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

Buccaneers @ Bills (-2.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have announced that they are starting quarterback Jameis Winston despite pulling him from last week’s game due to a shoulder injury, but whether he will be effective against a Buffalo Bills defence that currently ranks second in the league by DVOA is another question. To be honest, at the moment I would say that the Bills are the better team and I would expect them to win out at home against a Bucs team that hasn’t quite come together this season.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Panthers @ Bears (+3.5)

The Chicago Bears managed to get a win in rookie quarterback Mitch Trubisky’s first start, but he was only asked to make sixteen passes as opposed to fifty-four rush attempts. This is a very specific formula and they are facing a Carolina Panthers’ rush defence that ranks sixth in the league by DVOA. More worrying is that the Panthers’ offence is also coming together and I would expect them to win out after losing a close game to the Eagles last week. Sadly Luke Kuechly won’t be playing as he is suffering a concussion for the third straight year, but that is not altering my pick.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Titans @ Browns (+5.5)

The Cleveland Browns are going back to starting DeShone Kizer, which is the right long term decision for the team as they need to find out if they have their quarterback of the future, but it does seem that Hue Jackson is feeling the pressure of not having won a game this year. This week they welcome a Tennessee Titans team that have to restrict Marcus Mariota’s movements out the pocket but they got back on track with a win last week. I would expect them to win again this week but I’m not sure they will win by six points.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Saints @ Packers (+5.5)

As if Green Bay Packers didn’t have enough injury problems already with their offensive line, they’ve now lost Aaron Rogers to a broken collar bone in his throwing shoulder. The Packers’ backup quarterback Brett Hundley has been at the Packers for a couple of years but will run a different system to Rodgers and whilst he will try to keep them in the playoff hunt, this is a tough proposition. The New Orleans Saints have actually improved on defence this season, and defensive end Cameron Jordan will be looking forward to facing the Packers’ beat up line. However, whilst the points make me nervous, the Saints have won their last three games by a minimum of seven points and so I’m backing them in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Jaguars @ Colts (+2.5)

This is a much harder game for me to pick as the Indianapolis Colts have managed to win a couple of games and welcome a Jacksonville Jaguars team who lose one week and win the next. However, there is a big difference in the DVOA rankings and every Jaguars win has come on the road including their one home game win that was actually played in London so despite them giving points to the Colts I’m picking the Jaguars this week to continue the trend.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Cardinals @ Rams (-3.5)

The LA Rams are hosting the Arizona Cardinals at Twickenham stadium in London and this is a really fascinating game. The Rams continue to lead their division thanks to the turn around on offence that Sean McVay has brought about, but their defence is a surprising rank of twenty-two against the run by DVOA. Two weeks ago this would not have been a problem against a Cardinals team who had lost David Johnson and were really struggling on offence as a while. However, having traded for Adrian Peterson, they looked a much better balanced offence and were able to run out easy winners against the Buccaneers last week. How consistent this turnaround is I don’t know, and with the added variant of a trip to London I really don’t know how to pick this game. In the end, I’m going to grab the extra half point given to the Cardinals, but as much as I’m looking forward to watching this game, the pick is very much a shot in the dark.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Jets @ Dolphins (-2.5)

This is another game that I find hard to pick as I really don’t have a handle on the Miami Dolphins, who for large parts of the season have just not looked very good, but then their defence will play tough and Jay Cutler will look like a competent quarterback. They welcome a New York Jets team who have already exceeded the expectations going into the season with their three wins, and although they lost their last game, the Jets put up a credible fight against the Patriots.

Both teams have similar DVOA rankings, but this is only the Dolphins second true home game this season and with a two game winning streak I’m going to pick them nervously, but I could easily see the Jets winning this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Ravens @ Vikings (-5.5)

The Minnesota Vikings are developing one of the better home advantages in the league and welcome a Baltimore Ravens team whose offence only ranks twenty-sixth in the league. I would expect the Ravens to struggle to move the ball on the Vikings in their noisy stadium and can see the Vikings covering this line, which is why I am picking them.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Cowboys @ 49ers (+6.5)

The San Francisco 49ers have specialised in close losses this season, so the fact that they are getting six and a half points at home is pretty much getting my pick straight away. The Dallas Cowboys may have Ezekiel Elliott, but their offence has not quite played up to last year’s level although they are ranked fifth in rush DVOA. Their defence is currently ranked thirtieth by DVOA though and in this game whilst I would expect them to win, I do expect the 49ers to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Bengals @ Steelers (-5.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers found their formula last week by focussing on the run and their zone defence was able to hold up the Chiefs enough to get a win. They are rightly favourites at home against a Cincinnati Bengals team who have fought their way back into the season after a poor start. These games are usually close, and whilst I’m not sure the Bengals can win this game I do strongly fancy them to stay within six points.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Broncos @ Chargers (-1.5)

The LA Chargers don’t really have a home advantage as even in the smaller stadium they are using in their first season in LA they have been unable to sell out and have often had a large numbers of away fans in attendance. They welcome a Denver Broncos team who had problems last week as they gave the Giants their first win of the season. The Broncos have some injuries at receiver and Trevor Siemian had to come out the game last week with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder but is expected to be back this week. I find it hard to believe the Broncos will be as bad this again and it’s got to be dispiriting for the Chargers to be playing in that stadium so I’m backing the Broncos to get things back on track in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Seahawks @ Giants (+5.5)

The New York Giants got their first win of the season last week despite all the injuries at receiver and this week welcome a Seattle Seahawks team who have slipped out of the top ten rankings in defensive DVOA and whose offensive line is struggling even more than usual. I fancy the Seahawks to find a way to win, but with an offence with a clear game plan and a defence that played better last week I fancy the Giants to cover this line at home, although it does make me a bit nervous.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Falcons @ Patriots (-3.5)

I am still not quite sure how the Atlanta Falcons lost last week having been seventeen points up at half time, but they managed it and this week they travel to face the New England Patriots who had the amazing comeback against the Falcons in the last Super Bowl. The Patriots have got back to the top of their division despite a defence that still ranks last in DVOA and who has given up three hundred yards of passing to every quarterback they have faced. The question about giving up leads will follow the Falcons until they have won enough games to put it out of people’s minds, but they will be looking for revenge in this game and have a quarterback capable of exploiting the Patriots’ defensive issues even if things are not going as well for them having lost co-ordinator Kyle Shanahan.

I’m really not sure how to pick this game, and the half point strongly tempts me to pick the Falcons but having won the last two games and with them generally finding a way, I’m going to back the Patriots.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Washington @ Eagles (-4.5)

This is one of the games of the week with the Philadelphia Eagles welcoming their division rivals who they beat handily in week one. Things have improved for Washington who are the Eagles closest rivals in the NFC East division and who really need this win to stop the Eagles from taking a commanding three game lead, which would be very hard to claw back.

The Eagle are ranked second in the league by DVOA but Washington are not that far behind them and now that Washington are enough weeks away from a pre-season that didn’t seem to prepare them for the start of the season very well, I feel it will be a close game. In fact close enough that this is too many points for the Eagles to be giving away. I just hope I’m not wrong.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

AAF: Adrian Peterson

22 Sunday Oct 2017

Posted by in Amateur Adventures in Film

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , ,

So after an aborted attempt a couple of weeks ago, I have finally got through an entire game of coaching tape and so I’m very happy to be able to write up what I saw when I took a look at Adrian Peterson’s first game for the Arizona Cardinals against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week.

I was not convinced that Peterson was going to make a huge difference to the Cardinals when he was traded to them from the New Orleans Saints but the move did make sense for both teams. It had been a couple of seasons since we had seen Peterson at his best and the criticism has been that he was not able to run out of shotgun formations and that given his ability in the passing game, when he was on the field it was too much of a tip to what was going to happen on that play.

In the game against the Buccaneers last week Peterson ran for one hundred and thirty-four yards on twenty-six carries giving him over a five yard per carry average, and he scored two touchdowns. Peterson did have one fumble, but he was bailed out by guard Earl Watford who recovered the ball for him.

The classic thing you hear about Peterson is that he is a volume runner and he runs best from the I-formation. Whilst he did not take many snaps in the shotgun formation, he was not the obvious indicator of a running play that has been talked about in recent years. The Cardinals spent most of the game in 11 or 12 personnel, with Adrian Peterson as the single back but for most of these snaps Carson Palmer was under centre rather than in shotgun. From here Peterson did run the ball effectively, with his longest run that counted being twenty-seven yards though he did also have a forty-one yard run called back due to an illegal blocking penalty, although Peterson was also called for taunting at the end of that play as well.

It has to be said that Peterson does not look to have burst when compared to the athletes around him, but he is a patient runner with enough experience and shiftiness to be effective. More importantly, he seemed to give the Cardinals balance and although he was only targeted once in the passing game, he did run a number of routes or play action fakes and so his presence on the field was not an indication of whether a run or pass play was coming.

It is too early to tell if he can continue this pace over the course of the season as he has not carried this level of  load for a couple of years, but the early signs are definitely positive and if he can give the Cardinals’ offence a genuine balance then he could help rescue their season. I look forward to seeing how the Cardinals do against the Rams in London this week.

Existing in a World of Flux

19 Thursday Oct 2017

Posted by in Thursday Night Football

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , , , , , , , , ,

It was another week of unpredictable results that saw the New York Giants win their first game of the season on the road and the injury of another of the NFL’s marketable stars with Aaron Rodgers going down with a broken collar bone.

There has been some contention that it was a late hit on Rodgers by Vikinings linebacker Anthony Barr and that he drove Rodgers into the ground. To me it looks like he took a step and made a form tackle. It is a big blow to the Packers and the league to lose a player of Rodger’s standing, but in this instance I think it was a football play.

The continuing narrative surrounding the league is a worry about marketing and viewing figures as well as playing standards. Yes we are seeing a generation of quarterbacks who we are very familiar with come towards the end of their career or retire, but with players like Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott and emerging rookie Deshaun Watson I would not give up on the young group of quarterbacks just yet. And that’s ignoring the future years of Russell Wilson and the aforementioned Aaron Rodgers who should have some very good seasons ahead of them.

I am also not so worried about viewing figures given that no one seems to be able to take into account for more fractured way people watch television and sport. The American ratings don’t take into account those watching digitally, so a decline should be taken with a pinch of salt.

The participation levels in youth football however, must be monitored, but given all that we are learning about head injuries it would be a good thing to delay the playing of tackle football until children are big enough. The big change will be when a test for CTE that can be performed on players whilst they are still alive is available, and this is when the seismic changes could take place.

The NFL is heading into a period of flux, and yes I do think the NBA can challenge them with their marketable stars who are not hidden behind a helmet. However, the intricacies and skill of football are still as interesting as ever.

There are things that are affecting the quality of play in the collective bargaining agreement. Maybe coaches do need more practice time, but the days of two a days and endless hitting are behind us. It will require innovation and insight, something that has repeatedly occurred in the league but usually though the vision of a single coach or owner and then picked up across the league.

There will be much to discuss when the next CBA is drawn up, but it would help if the process was less adversarial. I really don’t think it is good for the sport that the relationship between the players union and the league is so fractious. However, it is interesting that at the league meeting this week that despite the comments on the anthem in Roger Goodell’s memo, the focus in the meeting was on what the league could do to further the players who are protesting agenda. This strikes me as a more productive route than demanding players stand for the anthem, although I’m sure as the discussions progresses that they will circle back to tackle that topic.

Still, it useful to remember that even for a sport as conservative as American Football, the world is a place of constant flux and for the league to survive it will have to find a way of existing in that flux.

Not so very different to the rest of us.

Gee:      Week 6   7-7                       Overall   53-39
Dan:      Week 6   7-7                       Overall   42-50

Chiefs @ Raiders (+2.5)

The Oakland Raiders’ offence has just not come together this season, and whilst I like the signing of NaVorro Bowman to bolster the Raiders’ linebacker group, I’m not sure it is enough to help them hang with Kansas City Chiefs’ offence. The Raiders will be desperate for a win to rescue their season but even as a home underdog I can’t pick them in tonight’s game, although it would not exactly surprise me if they were to win.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 56

19 Thursday Oct 2017

Posted by in Podcasts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Oh the injuries… so many injuries! This week on The Wrong Football pod, we take a look at the best of Week 6 – the week in which some of the leagues biggest names ended up on the sidelines – and also make our picks for Week 7, when the NFL returns to London for the first of two Twickenham games. We also talk about Ezekiel Elliott’s pending suspension, and pay tribute to Kevin Cadle, who sadly passed away on Monday. All that and more, this week on The Wrong Football podcast!

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 56

Week Six Picks

15 Sunday Oct 2017

Posted by in Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

So thanks to me being away this weekend, I’m suffering from a bit of a time crunch so I’m trying something for this week only, and will be writing a sentence for each game and giving you our picks, and if you’re seeing this the plan worked.

Dolphins @ Falcons (-11.5)

The Miami Dolphins take their okay defence and misfiring offence on the road to face the Falcons in Atlanta and it feels like the only question is whether this is too many points.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Bears @ Ravens (-7.5)

I’m not convinced that the Baltimore Ravens can cover these points just because they put up points against a bad Raiders defence last week and so I’m backing the Chicago Bears to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

Browns @ Texans (-9.5)

The Houston Texans have lost two key players on defence whilst finding a quarterback so it feels like they will be in a lot of shoot outs for the rest of the season and this is a lot of points to cover, but it is against the Cleveland Browns at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Lions @ Saints (-4.5)

This looks to be a cracking game as the Detroit Lions take their top ten ranked defence to face Drew Brees in the Super Dome and I’m really not sure who is going to win so I’ll grab the points in what feels like a close game.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Packers @ Vikings (+3.5)

The Green Bay Packers will always have a chance with Aaron Rodger as their quarterback despite their injuries, but Minnesota Vikings are a tough team even if they don’t have their starting quarterback so this is a pick that is all about getting a chance to pick a home underdog.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Patriots @ Jets (+9.5)

The New England Patriots travel with their high flying offence and a defence that is ranked last in the NFL by DVOA to face the New York Jets who have earned more respect than this line is giving them.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

49ers @ Washington (-9.5)

After their opening week loss to the Panthers the San Francisco 49ers have not lost by more than three points and so this line feels a little high even if Washington have been playing well in recent weeks.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Rams @ Jaguars (-2.5)

This game sees two teams with winning records that you might not have predicted before the season face each other with the LA Rams improved offence taking on a Jacksonville Jaguars defence that is ranked first in the league by DVOA and so despite my worries over their offence I’m backing the Jags.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Buccaneers @ Cardinals (+2.5)

I’m really not convinced that the addition of Adrian Peterson to the Arizona Cardinals will help solve their offensive problem s and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers really need to get themselves back on track.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Steelers @ Chiefs (-3.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers’ offence has not flowed properly this season, and I’m just not sure that a trip to Arrowhead stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs is the game for them to turn things around.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Chargers @ Raiders (-6.5)

There’s talk that the Oakland Raiders will have Derek Carr back despite only being a week removed from fracturing the transverse process in his back, but the LA Chargers have got their first win of the season and have kept nearly all of their games closer than this.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Giants @ Broncos (-12.5)

The New York Giants are falling apart and travelling to Denver to face the Broncos defence with mass injuries in your receiver group does not look like a formula for success.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Colts @ Titans (-3.5)

This is a game that the Tennessee Titans have to win to get things back on track having lost badly to the Texans and then followed that up by losing a winnable game against the Dolphins, but the Indianapolis Colts are the second worst team in the NFL by DVOA so they stand a good chance.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:           Colts

A Strange Season

12 Thursday Oct 2017

Posted by in Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

, , ,

It feels like a strange season so far for the NFL.

Some of that is the usual unpredictability of team performance, and so whilst it is a surprise to see the New York Jets with a 3-2 record given what almost everyone but the most ardent of Jets fans were expecting for the season, but it is also not unusual for it to happen in the NFL.

It is unusual is for the league to be having a feud with the executive branch of the US government, but when you have Vice President Mike Pence staging his own walk out protest in response to the kneeling of some San Francisco 49ers’ players for the national anthem then you know this is not something that is going quieten down soon. In fact, Roger Goodell has sent out a memo and is hoping to come up with a solution that will persuade all players to stand for the anthem in return for certain commitments to address the issues players are concerned with.

I suspect much of this is to do with the league’s bottom line and the response of a large section of fans, but I don’t entirely disagree when Goodell writes, ‘The controversy over the Anthem is a barrier to having honest conversations and making real progress on the underlying issues.”

A protest doesn’t’ gain traction if it is comfortable, but there is now that a conversation is being started it needs to be focussed on the issues at hand and the point of the protest was never about the flag. It’s just hard not to see this as the league backing its African American players until the their money was threatened.

It does at least look like the NFLPA will be involved in next week’s meetings, but at this stage it just feels like no one knows what is going to happen.

I know the feeling. I am hoping to get back to something like a routine in a couple of weeks as I work on finishing the edits on my second book that is coming out next year, but whilst the coaching tape still escapes me, at least my picks are holding up so far.

Gee:      Week 5   10-4                     Overall   46-32
Dan:       Week 5   5-9                       Overall   35-43

Eagles @ Panthers (-2.5)

This looks like it could be a really good Thursday night game as long as the short week doesn’t hurt the travelling team as it so often does, but the Philadelphia Eagles have had a strong start to the season with their running game being surprisingly effective. They travel to face a Carolina Panthers team whose defence carried them for the first couple of weeks, but now it looks like Cam Newton is hitting his stride after an offseason spent recovering from surgery and a slow start to the season.

This line feels about right, so I’m going to take the home team on a Thursday night, but I don’t feel super confident about it.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 55

12 Thursday Oct 2017

Posted by in Podcasts

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

After our Bye week last week, The Wrong Football pod is back to talk all things NFL! As we head into Week 6, we take an updated look at the Kneeling controversy, and also Payton Manning’s famous number 18 Jersey being retired in Indianapolis. And how far ahead is Gee in the Pick’em competition? There’s only one way to find out!!
Oh, and as a little bonus this week, I’ve left a bit of an out-take at the end – enjoy!

 

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 55

Week 5 Picks

08 Sunday Oct 2017

Posted by in Picks Competition

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

,

Bills @ Bengals (-2.5)

The Buffalo Bills have got off to a good start to the season, with impressive wins against the Broncos and Falcons in their last two weeks they stand atop the AFC East. However, they are travelling to face an improving Cincinnati Bengals team whose offence is showing signs of finding its way.

I am looking forward to seeing the Bills play, and their defence has looked good so far this season, but so has the Bengals defence and I think the men in stripes can edge this one out. I hope this isn’t a case of my heart ruling over my head.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Jets @ Browns (-1.5)

The New York Jets are defying everyone’s expectations having won two home games to currently stand 2-2 and travel to face the Cleveland Browns. The Browns will be hoping that rookie pass rusher Myles Garrett can give them a spark as he seeks to make his professional debut in the regular season as he comes back from an ankle problem. However, the Brows have been really struggling and I find it hard to pick them to win against a Jets team who may not be great, but are finding ways to compete.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Panthers @ Lions (-2.5)

Up until  the press conference where Cam Newton started making misogynist comments about a reporter things had been looking up for the Carolina Panthers on offence. The Panthers’ quarterback had driven the ball better and there looked to be more run options worked into the game as Newton continues works back from offseason shoulder surgery. How much Cam will have been distracted by various meetings, and shooting a video apology, I don’t know, but it can’t have helped.

Nor will the defence Newton faces this week, as the Detroit Lions are currently ranked fifth by defensive DVOA as opposed to the struggling Patriots defence that the Panthers faced last week. The Detroit Lions got back to winning ways last week on the road against the Vikings and I fancy them to continue that this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Titans @ Dolphins (+2.5)

The Tennessee Titans travel to face the Miami Dolphins this week, facing a game time decision to on whether to play quarterback Marcus Mariota thanks to a hamstring injury. The Titans are coming off a horrible loss last week, and whilst I don’t think that will be repeated this week, I find it hard to believe this is the trip they need to sort things out. I’m slightly worried about making this pick as the Dolphins have not inspired confidence this year, but with them getting points at their first true home game of the season, I’m picking them to keep to within three.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

49ers @ Colts (-1.5)

This is a really tricky game for me to pick as neither teams gives me a lot to work with. The Indianapolis Colts are celebrating the career of Peyton Manning, but his replacement Andrew Luck has barely practised this season thanks to injury and whilst Jacoby Brissett has demonstrated a lot more that Scott Tolzien, this was not exactly setting a high point in quarterback play. There’s not a lot for the Colts to hang their hat on at the moment, with their only win coming against the winless Browns, but they are facing an equally winless 49ers team.

The San Francisco 49ers have run two teams close in the last two weeks, including an overtime loss to the struggling Cardinals, but it is clear it is going to take time to turn things round. I am not particularly inspired by either team for this game, and so I’m reluctantly backing the Colts to beat the road team coming of an overtime time loss.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Chargers @ Giants (-3.5)

Something has to give with them winless LA Chargers traveling to face the equally winless New York Giants, unless these teams manage to engineer a draw. Still, given that the Chargers seem to specialise in close heart breaking losses, I’m going to reluctantly back them to keep this game closer than four points.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Cardinals @ Eagles (-6.5)

The Arizona Cardinals follow up their overtime win against the 49ers with a trip to Philadelphia to face an Eagles team who despite the injuries in their defence are currently 3-1. This game pits the Eagles top five by DVOA rushing game against the Cardinals top five rush defence. I would expect the Eagles to win this game, but given that they have only beaten the Chargers and Giants by a combined five points in the last two weeks, this line against the Cardinals is too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Jaguars @ Steelers (-8.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers keep finding ways to win despite disruption on and off the field for their offence. This week they face a Jacksonville Jaguars team who seem to be a week on week off proposition so far this season, and by that logic are due a good week. I don’t believe in that kind of pattern, but what I do believe is that the Jaguars’ defence will be a sterner test than the beaten up Ravens defence the Steelers faced last week. I’m not sure if the Jaguars will give themselves a genuine chance to win the game, but I fancy their defence to keep it closer than nine.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Ravens @ Raiders (-3.5)

This game pits a Baltimore Ravens team who is struggling with both offensive and defensive line play thanks to injury, against an Oakland Raiders team who lost their quarterback to a transvers process fracture last week. Whilst Derek Carr is trying to get into the game this weekend, I find it hard to believe that the team will risk him with even a relatively minor fracture in his back.

This is a game where both teams have struggled over the last two weeks, and I’m finding it hard to make a pick as neither side inspires confidence, but with the Ravens struggling against the run since Brandon Williams went down injured I’m going to reluctantly back the Raiders and Marshawn Lynch at home. I have no confidence in this pick at all.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Seahawks @ Rams (-2.5)

This should be a really interesting game. I don’t believe that the LA Rams are the third best team in the NFL as their current overall DVOA ranking would suggest, but they are definitely improved under Sean McVay and perhaps the surprising thing is that their offence is ranked better than their defence. The Seattle Seahawks travel to LA having got a big win against the Colts, but the game was competitive until late in the third quarter. The Seahawk’s defence has not looked quite as solid as their front seven might have suggested, whilst their offensive line has been truly horrible. This could be a game where Aaron Donald runs amok given the offensive line he is going against, but the question is whether I can pick the Rams to beat a good team, but having beaten the Cowboys on the road, I will nervously back them against a Seahawks team who don’t look quite right yet.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Packers @ Cowboys (-1.5)

The Dallas Cowboys lost to the Rams last week, and this week welcome a Green Bay team that are struggling with injury, but have a quarterback in Aaron Rodgers who can keep his team in pretty much any game. The Cowboys rearranged offensive line might have taken a slight step back from their recent excellence, which combined with the lack of explosive passing options has made the Cowboys struggle more than some might have expected. However, the real problem for the Cowboys has been defence, and even with the number of tackle injuries the Packers have had this season, I am backing Rodgers to find a way and so I’m taking the Packers.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Chiefs @ Texans (+1.5)

This looks to be a fascinating game with the Houston Texans seemingly having found their quarterback of the future in Deshaun Watson and who are coming off a 57-14 win face the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs. If the Texans can find a consistent offence to match with their strong defence then they will be fearsome, but this week they face a Chiefs team who keep finding a way to win, even if the score line last week flattered them a little. I do like the Chiefs a lot, and whilst I don’t think they will go unbeaten, I do fancy them to run out eventual winners in this one despite the short week, although it would not surprise me the Texans win either.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Vikings @ Bears (+3.5)

The Chicago Bears will be starting Mitch Trubisky after a bad loss to the Packers that saw Mike Glennon throw two horrible interceptions as well as lose two fumbles, although one bad snap bounced of his knee and back to the Packers. However, he will be facing a Minnesota Vikings team with a strong defence and their own problems at quarterback. The status of Sam Bradford seems to be up in the air and couple this with the injury to Dalvin Cook that means the promising rooking running back has been lost for the season, and I’m really not sure what to do in this game. The Bears could have beaten the Falcons and did beat the Steelers, so with them getting three and a half points at home and the Vikings seeming to be somewhat Jekyll and Hyde on offence, I’m really tempted to pick them, I hate making picks with this much in the air so I’m grabbing the points and hoping for the best.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Vikingssa

A Quick Thursday Night Pick

05 Thursday Oct 2017

Posted by in Thursday Night Football

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

So we have reading the NFL quarter pole, barring the two teams who are behind a game, and what we have mostly learned is that there are no obviously great teams this year. The Kansas City Chiefs are looking very good and are the only unbeaten team left in the league, but they have looked vulnerable at times.

In fact, that sort of sums up the league at the moment. The short term troubles surround the league trying to find a balance with the players on activism and how to allow players a voice without them upsetting a large section of their fans.

More disturbing to me is the report regarding Aaron Hernandez’s brain, which showed that he had severe case of CTE. In fact his brain looked more like a player in their sixties, and whilst it would be unwise to extrapolate too much regarding his behaviour and the injury, the degree of injury is very worrying.

So hits like that which happened to Devantae Adams last week on Thursday night football become tricky to deal with. The player has been suspended for a game, but whilst some are saying Danny Trevathan should be suspended for longer. The players seem to feel it was an unfortunate football play and that there was not intent. The problem is, they well could be right, and the players do know the risks to an extent, but that concussion is going to have an effect on Adams’ life and the truth is we don’t know how bad. There is talk that there may be a protein that can be used as a test on living players to see if they have CTE, and while the more we know the better in the long run, no one knows where the league will go with this information if it does become available.

It is a strange time to be a football fan and it doesn’t look if that is going to stop any time soon.

Gee:      Week 4   11-5                     Overall   36-28
Dan:       Week 4   10-6                     Overall   30-34

Patriots @ Buccaneers (+5.5)

This looks like a winnable game for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but their record concerns me. The New England Patriots are currently ranked bottom in the league by defensive DVOA and managed to make a moribund Panthers’ offence look good last week. If your offence can score thirty points on the Panthers then you should win the game, but the Patriots defence could do nothing to stop Cam Newton marching his team down the field to get in range for a game winning field goal.

On a short week there is not a lot of time to sort the communication issues that appear to be part of the problems. The Buccaneers’ defence has been pretty banged up, but I would hope that at home the Bucs can keep this game closer than six points, and so whilst I don’t feel good about it, having lost twice backing the Patriots to cover, with them being on the road on a Thursday night I’m taking the home underdog.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots