Monthly Archives: December 2016

Thursday Night Pick

08 Thursday Dec 2016

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So we head into week fourteen with one of the best Thursday night match-ups we’ve had all season.

Raiders @ Chiefs -3.5

This should be a cracking game. The Chiefs won probably the game of last week thanks to a combination of their defence, a special teams fake punt, and Eric Berry pulling off a pick six and a pick two. Their offence might not be firing on all cylinders, but they are finding a way to win. And all of this following a full extra quarter played the week before in Denver.

The Raiders are doing similarly well off the back of Derek Carr stepping up yet again this season, and reassuring fans that there will be life after the current quarterbacks greats like Brady, and Brees follow Peyton Manning into retirement. The Raiders defence has picked up in recent weeks, but I don’t think there will be much to separate these teams.

I am not sure the Raiders can keep winning on the road like they have, and Arrowhead stadium is a famously difficult place to play, but equally the Chiefs can’t keep squeezing out results like this. I am stronly tempted by the Chiefs, but that extra half point is just a little to rich for my blood, so I’m nervously back the Raiders in a game where something has to give.

Gee’s Pick:    Raiders
Dan’s Pick:    Raiders

Sunday Thoughts

04 Sunday Dec 2016

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It has been a frustrating season as a Bengals fan, but there comes a point where you have to accept that the playoffs really are out of reach, and whilst that happened to me a couple of weeks ago, the optimist in me still tries to hang on to hope for a couple of weeks. I am dreading what Fletcher Cox could do against the Bengals this week, but mainly I’ll be curious about what is going on with the rest of the league.

The Cowboy ran out eventual winners in an intriguing Thursday night game, but even though the Vikings defence is back to where it was earlier in the season, they couldn’t stop the first team to record double digit wins from getting their eleventh. There are two teams that could join them this week, but whilst the Raiders and Patriots stand a good chance of getting their tenth wins, injuries to Derek Carr and Rob Gronkowski could be causing differing degrees of anxiety to fans. Derek Carr came back in the game to play with his nastily injured finger, it is amazing what adrenaline will do for you, but it is possible it might affect his play. More worrying for the Patriots though will be the loss of Gronkowski for the rest of the season after having back surgery this week. You would back the Patriots staff to be able to adjust to this loss, but it is a big loss as Gronkowski is a real difference maker and is a favourite target of Brady as well as being the best tight end in the league.

No team is unaffected by injury at this time of year, but it is a question of whether you have picked up a critical injury and how strong you are at that position in the first place. The Seattle Seahawks offensive line has not been good all season, but in recent weeks they had improved enough when combined with Russel Wilson getting healthy to make the Seahawks look frightening again. However, they picked up more injuries last week and the Seahawks could only register five points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They are still very much in control of the AFC West, which is very much going through a down season this year, but they will have their eyes on bigger prizes and I will be curious to see how well their offence goes this week against a Panthers team who have been more competitive in recent weeks, even if the results don’t necessarily reflect it.

It felt like a strange week of games to predict, there are a lot of teams whose performance is varying week to week, and when there are questions surrounding even the best of teams, it is beginning to feel that the Cowboys might be putting themselves on a level of their own as they keep grinding out wins.

I think the question of overtime could rear its head again this week with another game that did give us a winner last Sunday, but still went to the end of overtime. One of my picks is resting on whether this extra pick is enough to let the Jaguars cover, but given the previous results of teams coming off a full overtime period it is not beyond the realms of possibility that the Jaguars could pick up a win. I know that Americans are culturally obsessed with there not being draws, but if a full period of overtime is that much of a disadvantage to the participating teams the following week, I’m still not sure that in an era of concern over player well-being, that we are not better off just accepting that draws happen.

Let’s see what happens with the Chiefs and Broncos when they play today.

AAF: AJ Klein

04 Sunday Dec 2016

Posted by in Amateur Adventures in Film, Uncategorized

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So this week’s amateur adventures in film is based on a comment from Ross Tucker on his podcast this week that AJ Klein was one of the best backup linebackers in the NFL, that he doesn’t start because they have Thomas Davis, Luke Kuechly, and Shaq Thompson, but that he looks a lot like Kuechly when he’s out there and made a bunch of plays. I thought I would take a look for myself.

Now his stat are pretty good with five tackles, and a play that doesn’t seem to have been credited as a sack where he stopped a scrambling Derek Carr as he tried to make a first down by stopping him behind the line and forcing a fumble. This was a very nice play as Klein started the play by showing blitz, then dropped back into coverage before chasing Carr to the side line. However, as the game moved on there were a couple of big plays that Klein was involved with.

Very few linebackers are as good as Luke Kuechly when he is in full flight, but Klein certainly looked good for large parts of this game, dropping into coverage smoothly or attacking gaps against the run. However, whilst he was capable of running with the slot receivers or tight ends, he gave up several plays in this spot including a touchdown to Clive Walford in the fourth quarter. In fact the fourth quarter was a difficult period for Klein. He did not get his head around and so was only able to wave an arm as the ball from Carr went to Walford in the back of the end zone for aforementioned touchdown. However, Klein also gave up a fifteen yard facemask penalty when trying to disengage from a block by Michael Crabtree against a run play, and gave up a thirty-two yard pass play to Crabtree as he followed him down the field. Not only did the pass get completed, but Klein gave away a declined pass interference penalty that ensured the pass was effective regardless of whether the catch was made. A matchup of a linebacker against a receiver down field is always going to be advantageous to the receiver, so I am not going to be too critical of this play, but it was a bad moment.

It does however highlight one problem when you are going through film, which is you can’t know the call. You would frequently see the linebackers swapping round as the Raiders shifted, and you could see Klein follow his player out when he had plays, sometimes slowing down or breaking up a play with his closing speed such as when he reached running back Latavius Murray as he received the pass to break up the completion or again later in the game when he tackled Murray for a loss. He was also unafraid to attack the hole or take on blockers, but the Raiders line is a very large group of men and I wouldn’t exactly say he won his battles with Gabe Jackson. That said, when a team only gives up fifty-six yards on thirty-one attempts, then your run defence is doing something right and whilst he wasn’t slipping off blockers easily, nor was he getting pancaked and when you’re taking on three hundred pound plus linemen that is not to be sneezed at.

As ever, I feel a little under qualified for grand pronouncements on players, but it was really interesting watching AJ Klein play and he certainly seemed to move in space well when dropping into zone, which he did a lot. It may not look to me that he diagnosed plays as fast as the man he was replacing, but that’s an unfair comparison for many a linebacker in the league and I did think he looked good for parts of this game, even if did give up some key plays. However, he kept on coming and I’ll be interested to see how the Panthers get on against the Seahawks in tonight’s game.

Week Thirteen Picks

04 Sunday Dec 2016

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Another okay week for both of us, but we are still well behind a winning record, and Dan maintains his single win lead.

Gee:      Week 12   9-7                     Overall   82-95
Dan:      Week 12   9-7                     Overall   83-94

Chiefs @ Falcons (-3.5)

The Chiefs are coming off a win, but had to play an entire extra quarter to get it and so with them on the road against a strong Falcons team I am backing the Falcons to cover this line, even if it does make me a little nervous as the addition of Justin Houston really added a spark to the Chief’s defence last week.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

49ers @ Bears (-2.5)

There is very little to separate these teams, with the Bears suffering so many injuries, but getting an okay performance from Matt Barkley whilst the 49ers have struggled since their week one win, but Colin Kaepernick was looking better at quarterback last week. In the end I am going to back the home team in this one, with the 49ers travelling across the country but I do not feel confident about it.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Eagles @ Bengals (+1.5)

The Bengals keep things close but lose this season, but I have been dreading the sight of Fletcher Cox going up against an offensive line that has not protected well this season. I would love to be proven wrong, but with all that has happened with the Bengals this season, I can’t pick them in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Broncos @ Jaguars (+5.5)

This pits a team that played and entire extra quarter against a Jaguars team who have been truly horrible. The last two times I have seen this happen in recent years both teams who played the fifth quarter have lost. I don’t want to back the Jaguars in this one, but the situation is telling me to and as they only have to keep within six I am very nervously going to back them to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Lions @ Saints (-5.5)

This is a lot of points for the Saints to be giving up, and whilst I trust Drew Brees and their offence to get points, the Lions have been finding a way all season and I think they keep this one closer than six. I don’t like any of my picks this week it seems…

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Texans @ Packers (-5.5)

This is another horrible game for me to call as the Texans have been struggling on offence, but have a very competent defence. This week they visit a Packers team who got a very solid win last week with Aaron Rodgers looking more like himself, but this team is still flawed. The Texans have the options on offence to hurt a weekend Packers’ secondary, but Brock Osweiler has not been good this season. I don’t want to pick the Packers to beat anyone by six, but given that the Texans record is a product of their division I’ll pick lightening to strike twice in Green Bay.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Rams @ Patriots (-13.5)

After giving up forty-nine points to a Saints team with an axe to grind last week, I might have been tempted to pick the Patriots to cover this line earlier in the week, but with Rob Gronkowski done for the season with a back injury, I think the Rams can keep this game closer than two touchdowns. I’m certainly not going to say they can win as they come across the country to play Brady in New England, but a sneaky cover I think is on the cards.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Dolphins @ Ravens (-3.5)

It looks as if the Dolphins will have two of their starting offensive line back in left tackle Branden Albert and left guard Laremy Tunsil, but they will be going up against one of the better defences in the league in the Ravens. The Baltimore team’s offence has been struggling though, and giving up that extra half point at home I am going to back the Dolphins in what will likely be a close game.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Bills @ Raiders (-3.5)

The Bills have had a very up and down season, but are coming off a win against the Jaguars, yet they face a very different prospect traveling to Oakland to play the Raiders. The Raiders have a very exciting offence and a defence that is doing enough for them to win and seems to have improved in the last few weeks. The Bills may have got back to a winning record, but beating a faltering Bengals team and the Jaguars does not indicate to me that a team has enough to live with Raiders.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Giants @ Steelers (-5.5)

This is the first of two games where the line doesn’t make much sense to me. The Steelers are coming off a solid win against a struggling Colts team who were without Andrew Luck. They have three really good players on offence, but the Giants are eight and three for a reason, and whilst they have not always looked good in getting there, the defence has played well enough for this to be a closer game than six points. I can easily see the Steelers winning this one, but I would be surprised if they cover this.

Gee’s Pick:          Giants
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Washington @ Cardinals (-2.5)

The Cardinals have an excellent defence, but between the fall off in play of Carson Palmer and their struggles on the offensive line the Cards are struggling. Meanwhile Washington have one of the more explosive offences in the league and I think they should have enough to beat the Cardinals on the road, which they will need to do to stay in the playoff hunt.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Buccaneers @ Chargers (-3.5)

This should be a cracking game as the Buccaneers have shown real progress in recent weeks, and the Chargers have got over their early season finding new ways to lose streak that undermined a team that has been competitive in all of their games. The line does make me pause, but I think that the Chargers will take this one and I am backing them to cover, although this could be a close game.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Chargers

Panthers @ Seahawks (-6.5)

The Panthers’ struggles have been well documented this season, and a trip to Seattle is never easy, but with the injuries the Seahawks have at the moment I think this line is a little generous. The Panthers were able to hang with the Saints last week, and whilst the Seahawks defence is a lot better even with their current injuries, the Seattle offensive line is not good and they only put up five points last week. I expect a reaction from Seattle, but I’m just not sure if they are going to win by a clear touchdown.

Gee’s Pick:          Panthers
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Colts @ Jets (+2.5)

With Andrew Luck having been cleared to play after his concussion and looking to start this should at least be a competitive game between two teams that have not set the league alight this season. The Jets defence has been surprisingly lowly whilst the offence has been cursed by poor quarterback play and injury. The Colts have struggled all season, but I think they have been the more consistent team, which is why they are giving away two and a half points on the road. The Jets haven’t won since they played Cleveland, but Ryan Fitzpatrick did play better against the Patriots last week. I am tempted to back the home team getting points, but in the end I find myself picking the Colts. I don’t feel confident about this at all.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 34

04 Sunday Dec 2016

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This week’s games included Thanksgiving, so aren’t you thankful that there’s a couple of bloody good blokes who can tell you all about it! We take a look at the state of the Panthers and the Browns as well as looking back at the best of Week 12’s action. We also make our picks of week 13, and there’s only one way (well, two if you include the Blog!) to find out what Gee’s thankful to the NFL for – all here on The Wrong Football Podcast!

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 34

Thursday Night Pick

01 Thursday Dec 2016

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And yet again I’m fiddling with the blog schedule for reasons to do with having a book out and possibly more on the way, but rest assured I’ll be writing something general about the NFL on Sunday ahead of the rest of the week thirteen games and the misery of another Bengals loss.

Anyway, on to tonight’s Thursday Night Football matchup!

Cowboys @ Vikings (+3.5)

The Vikings kept the game close against the Detroit Lions last week, with an improved defensive performance, but there are still struggling on offence and this week welcome the team with the best record in the league. I am really looking forward to this game, which features two teams with a full week’s rest having both played on Thanksgiving, but this is not enough points for me to do anything other than pick the Cowboys. This is the kind of good team reason I needed not to back the home team as the Cowboys will be able to keep plugging away on offence and I think will run out fairly easy winners.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys