Monthly Archives: November 2016

Thursday Night Pick

10 Thursday Nov 2016

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A strange week, too much work, and now two people picking the Browns:

Browns @ Ravens (-10.5)

So if last week’s Thursday night road team selection was based on the Falcons being a better team than the Buccaneers, this week’s is due to the Raven’s needing an eleven point in margin to cover this game and their sputtering offence being ranked dead last by DVOA. The Raven’s defence is playing really well, but it is a defence that Hue Jackson is familiar with given his history in the AFC North and having only lost by five points earlier in the season, I’m backing the Browns to keep this one close as well and will be very smug come Friday morning, or kicking myself a lot!

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:         Browns

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 31

10 Thursday Nov 2016

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We’re here again this week to show that not everything that’s come out of America this week has been rubbish – there’s been some great football too which we’re only too happy to bring to you once again! Looking over some of the best games of the week including arguably one of the best one handed catches you’ll see all season, as well as the pick of Week 10’s games to come. Plus, is Kirk Cousins the real deal, and are the poor old Seahawks being picked on? Find out this week, on The Wrong Football Podcast!

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 31

Falcons @ Buccaneers

06 Sunday Nov 2016

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28
Atlanta Falcons 43

This turned out to be a fairly straight forward win for the Falcons as they eased away in the second half and withstood a late push from the Buccaneers when the game was already out of reach.

The Buccaneers started off the game well, their opening drive going for a touchdown as their offence moved the ball, particularly through the air. The problem for them was however the costly mistakes they made rather than general bad play. In many games, throwing for two hundred and sixty-one yards and three touchdowns would win you the game, but sadly whilst Mike Evans caught eleven balls for one hundred and fifty of those yards as well as two of the touchdowns, he also had too many drops. If you are a Bucs fan Evans must be a frustrating player as he is capable of great catches, and made a spectacular one handed grab near the side line in this game, but he also drops easy balls that a receiver of his quality should really catch. There were plenty of other players catching the ball, but the real problems were a combination of the running game where the Buccaneers have lots of injuries, and turnovers with the Buccaneers fumbling the ball twice and were lucky to only give up field goals off these turnovers. One of the fumbles was particularly bad as a problem with the hand-off was exacerbated by defensive end Adrian Clayborn getting into the backfield and disrupting the play allowing linebacker De’Vondre Campbell to knock the ball out of Antone Smith’s hands. The other was again in the first quarter when Jameis Winston was trying a quarterback sneak to pick up a first down on third and one. However, the inability of the Bucs to sustain drives meant that they could not keep up with the top ranked offence by DVOA in the league.

The Falcons defence is not even in the top twenty of the league by DVOA, but it is doing enough for them to win games. The Buccaneers had success moving the ball through the air, but the Falcons defence did enough against the run and rushed the passer enough to get them the win. The combination of players in the front seven is starting to come together with Vic Beasley beginning to develop in his second year, even if he isn’t the pass rusher they had hoped for, but combined with Adrian Clayborn and others the Falcons managed three sacks and eight quarterback hits in this game. They are not a particularly good defence, but they are trending in the right direction and if they can keep doing enough whilst the Falcons offence is this good then they should keep winning games.

The Falcons offence just kept rolling in this one, with Matt Ryan throwing for three hundred and forty-four yards and four touchdowns. Julio Jones started the game quietly in the first quarter, but finished the game with one hundred and eleven yards and a touchdown. Fellow receiver Taylor Gabriel caught the eye with his speed, catching five passes for fifty-two yards with a long of twenty-six, but also running for twenty-four yards after taking two hand-offs whilst in motion. Devonta Freeman fan for over four yards a carry as he racked up seventy-seven yards and the team managed a total of one hundred and thirty-six yards on the ground. Balance seems to be the watchword for the Falcons this year, with the running game working well in tandem with the passing game, Mohamed Sanu establishing himself as the second receiver opposite Julio Jones. In fact Matt Ryan had seven different players catch the ball in this game, and with an offensive line that is playing well, it is easy to see why the Falcons have looked as good as anyone on offence this year.

The Buccaneers defence struggled in this game, often the Falcons were able to attack the seams of their zone coverage when passing the ball, and whilst the Buccaneers had to sustain drives for long periods to score, the Falcons frequently were able to get long plays in the air. The Bucs defence was able to make the Falcons kick field goals a couple of times, but they only generated one turnover and the Falcons did not have to punt the ball once. They did manage to get eight quarterback hits but Gerald McCoy was often doubled teamed and he was only able to get one sack as for the most part this defence did not catch the eye. That is perhaps is not surprising given the offence they were playing against, but it does make me want to go to the coaching tape at some point to find out if I can see a bit more clearly what is going on.

Overall the Falcons are now 6-3, and are the better team. They were able to keep sustaining their success, particularly on offence and ran out easy winners, scoring over forty points for the third time this season. They got off to a great start last year but could not sustain it, but things look to be a bit more stable this year although there are some tough games against the Eagles, Cardinals, and Chiefs on the horizon.

The Buccaneers looked okay on offence, but they are struggling to run the ball thanks to injuries, whilst their defence still needs work. They went 6-10 last season, and having gone 3-5 in the first half this year, it does not look like they are going to be improving on that record particularly soon.

Week Nine Picks

06 Sunday Nov 2016

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I had a slightly better result last week, but I need to have a few more weeks like that to get back to having more games pick right than wrong so on to this week nine’s picks.

Gee:      Week 8   8-5                       Overall   53-67
Dan:      Week 8  4-9                       Overall   49-71

Dallas Cowboys @ Browns (+7.5)

The Cowboys are looking like one of the class teams of the NFC, but they had a big win in overtime against the Eagles and now they are travelling to Cleveland to face a Browns team who were up 20-7 at half time and still found a way to lose. I’m pretty certain the Cowboys will win, but the points give me pause, but although the Browns usually play fairly well before losing, the games they have kept close were against lesser teams and I think they’re going to struggle in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Lions @ Vikings (-6.5)

This is a lot of points for the Vikings to be giving the Lions given that they have lost two straight and just had their offensive coordinator resign, even if amicably. However, they have been on the road for the last two weeks and I have been impressed with the home advantage they have in their new stadium. The problem is that whilst I didn’t think the Lions had the defence to worry the troubled Vikings offensive line, a quick check of the adjusted sack rate on Football Outsiders has them ranked thirteenth, one place behind last week’s Chicago. Ultimately I think the Vikings get things back on track in wins and losses, but I can’t pick them to win by seven. I could regret this…

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Jaguars @ Chiefs (-8.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs keep rolling on whilst the Jaguars are mired in mediocrity again. The Chiefs might be down to their backup quarterback, but I see them winning the game, but the nine points required to cover does give me pause. The Jaguars have just fired their offensive coordinator, and you might well expect a bounce back as they rally round the new coordinator, and with the Chiefs having a backup quarterback and injuries at running back it looks like a good spot for the Jaguars. The problem is that I don’t trust them at all whilst I trust Andy Reid and Arrow Head is a difficult place to visit, still I think this is too many points to give away. Eek!

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Jets @ Dolphins (-3.5)

This game pits strength against strength as the Dolphins welcome the Jets to Miami and set their running game against the New York Jets’ running defence, which is one of the few bits of their defence that is definitively working. However, whilst the Jets did get a win last week, it was against the Browns and with the Dolphins coming off two straight wins with Jay Ajayi rushing for two hundred yards in both games as the offensive line coming together a bit, I think the Dolphins will run out winners in this one even if Ajayi is unlikely to run for two hundred yards again.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Eagles @ Giants (-2.5)

The New York Giants seem to be very up and down, at least they are to me and I struggle to get a feel for them each week. However, I was impressed with the Eagles play last week, even if they did ultimately lose against the Cowboys. This may be their second road game in a row and coming after an overtime loss to face a team coming off their bye, but I think the Eagles are a better team, even if the Giants have far better passing options on paper. I could regret this, but I’m going with the road underdog in a bad spot.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Steelers @ Ravens (-0.5)

The indications are that Ben Roethlisberger might play against the Ravens, which makes this a tricky game to call as these divisional games are often close. The Ravens have lost four straight although they are coming off a bye, but so are the Steelers, yet I think they are the better team and if that offence clicks back into place it is terrifying. However, Roethlisberger often doesn’t look great in his first game back from injury. I’m going to back what I think is the better team in this one, but it is another tricky pick.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Panthers @ Rams (+3.5)

The big question in this game is whether the Panthers we saw las week was a one week blip or if they are back to something more like how they were last season. The complaints from Cam Newton about the calls he’s getting will be music to the ears of an aggressive Rams defence, but they have been struggling to get consistent results and I’m not sure what to expect from them coming off the bye. I can see this one going either way, particularly if Luke Kuechly can’t go having missed practice, so when you’re getting this many points against a team who are only 2-5 this season then you take the points.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Panthers

Saints @ 49ers (+3.5)

There is only one unit I truly trust in this game, which is the Saints offence as Drew Brees continues to be great, and so I’m hitching this pick to his arm and hoping Brees won’t let me down.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Colts @ Packers (-6.5)

The Colts are not a good team, whilst I was impressed with the Packers play in a close loss to the Falcons in Atlanta. This week they return to Green Bay and with Aaron Rodgers looking a lot more like himself against the Packers, and a defence that is battling through its problems in the secondary, I think they are coming together nicely. I could see Andrew Luck covering this line at the end, but I think the Packers are too good for the Colts.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Titans @ Chargers (-5.5)

The Titans are coming off a big win and a long week after the demolition of the Jaguars on Thursday night of week eight, but they are travelling to San Diego to face a surging Chargers team. I was totally wrong about the impact of Joey Bosa’s holdout, and he really is coming into his own for the Chargers now rather than having the year written off. This line is really awkward as the Titans’ defence is still top ten and facing a Chargers team who look to be without their rookie tight end Hunter Henry who has got off to a great start. I think that the Chargers are the better team but I don’t know if they are going to win by six. I really don’t want to make a pick in this one…

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Broncos @ Raiders (+0.5)

The Raiders are doing well off the back of their stellar offence whilst the defence has really struggled. They have won all five of their road games whilst only managing a solitary win out of their three home games. This week they welcome the Denver Broncos who have the defence to contain Carr and Amari Cooper, and in what is a pick’em game I am going to back the Broncos as they punish me every time I don’t. They also have a better offence than Raiders have defence, but I’m really looking forward to watching this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Broncos
Dan’s Pick:          Broncos

Bills @ Seahawks (-7.5)

There is talk that LeSean McCoy will be back for this game, but hamstrings are tricky injuries to deal with, and in the meantime the Bills are so desperate for options on offence that they have signed Percy Harvin back from retirement. He is only twenty-eight and they will be hoping that the time off will have helped him heal the nagging injuries that plagued him last season, but it is not an obviously great move. The Seahawks defence has looked as good as ever this season, but their offense has had problems thanks to a shaky offensive line and the resulting injuries to Russell Wilson. I’m putting last week’s loss down to the extra fifteen minutes they played against the Cardinals in week seven, but whilst I expect the Seahawks to with this game, I’m not sure they will win by eight points.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Why a Draw is Not the End of the World

03 Thursday Nov 2016

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I know that football’s hatred of ties is cultural. One of the things that confuses Americans most about test cricket is the prospect that you could play a game of five days and not get a result. However, despite what many of them might claim, life is not all about winners and losers, it is more nuanced than that and so perhaps football can learn a thing or two from sports that do end in a tie.

Sunday’s game between Washgington and the Cincinnati Bengals was not an easy one to watch as a nervous Bengals fan going through a tough season where things are not quite coming together and surrounded by Washington fans. I don’t want to speak to for others, but I find it is hard to chant lustily about who is going to beat dem Bengals when the team has a losing record. Perhaps that says more about how I look at sport, but I really want to get to a game in the States one day as I’d love to experience the real home game atmosphere. We all know that the London games offers a different fan experience as the stadium is full of general NFL fans, with every team being represented so it is not unknown for the nominated away to team to have more fans or win the neutrals over more than the hosting team. However, the game was tense to the end, with some calling it the best of the London games.

The result doesn’t really help either team in the hunt for a playoff berth, but at least they are spared playing next week with both teams on byes. The Arizona Cardinals and the Seattle Seahawks were not so lucky and both lost this week having played a full fifteen minutes of overtime to come to their own draw in week seven. This did not surprise me as I watched the same happen to the Bengals and Carolina Panthers when they had the last tie back in 2014. In an age where player safety is supposed to be paramount, I’m not sure that forcing players to play up to another 25% of football is really justified, given the effect that it has on the teams in the following week and the risks to tired players. There has been grumbling about the overtime rules for a number of years, so why not simply do away with overtime until the playoffs.

Sometimes a drawer can feel like a win. Michael Atherton’s famous innings where he batted for 643 minutes across two days was career defining and is still talked about as he managed to lead his England team to an unlikely draw against South Africa. Life is complex and so is a sport like American Football. Do we really want to further tinker with rules and watch more games failed to be decided by the boots of kickers? Sometimes a draw can feel slightly lucky, and despite Mike Nugent’s missed extra point that could have won the Bengals’ the game, things could have easily gone the other way as Washington seemed to have the momentum for large stretches of the game and missed their own field goal in extra time.

However, in the regular season there is no real reason to force a result for every game. The NFL schedule is already constructed in such a way to account for the fact that you cannot play a league format where every team plays each other home and away. The separation by wins and losses does not get broken by introducing tied games; it is not so much harder to say three, four, and one instead of three and four, so why not save overtime for the playoffs?

Be it the penalty shootouts of football or hockey, or field goal at the end of overtime, none of these feel that satisfactory so let us have a draw. Neither team were able to force a result, they get punished for not getting the win without quite getting the loss either. Meanwhile, they don’t face an unfair disadvantage the following week, and we learn that sport like life can be complicated and end without a clear winner. It’s time to get on with the next game.

Falcons @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

My plan is to pick home teams for the Thursday night game unless there’s a compelling reason not to based on the points or a much better team being on the road. In this case, the Falcons are coming off a close win against the Green Bay Packers to stand atop the NFC South at 5-3, whilst the Bucs lost in overtime to the Raiders. The fact that this is a divisional game may throw a spanner in the works, but with the topped ranked offence in the league by DVOA and a defence that is showing some progress I’m backing the Falcons to cover in this game against a team that are ranked twenty-one place lower by overall DVOA.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 30

03 Thursday Nov 2016

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On this week’s pod, the Bengals made their first trip over to London to host the Washington Redskins, and we were there to capture the atmosphere and tell you all about it. There was plenty of action for us to look back on in Week 8 including a second tie in consecutive weeks, and we also pick our favourites for Week 9. As we’re half way through the season, we also thought it was about time we went back to look at our Divisional Pick’em! How are Dan and Gee doing? Are your favourite fan group topping the table? Tune in to find out!

Source: The Wrong Football Podcast – The Wrong Football Podcast – Episode 30