Things are afoot with the Wrong Football, which meant that I overlooked the post I was meant to put up announcing the teams that Dan picked before the games were played on Sunday. This will have been particularly annoying to Dan as he had a better week than me and has already won week five, it’s just a matter of how many games he will claw back, but for the record these were his picks for the Sunday games with his selections in Bold:

Washington @ Falcons (-7.5)
Bills @ Titans (+2.5)
Bears @ Chiefs (-9.5)
Seahawks @ Bengals (-1.5)
Browns @ Ravens (-6.5)
Rams @ Packers (-9.5)
Saints @ Eagles (-5.5)
Jaguars @ Buccaneers (-2.5)
Cardinals @ Lions (+2.5)
Patriots @ Cowboys (+9.5)
Broncos @ Raiders (+5.5)
49ers @ Giants (-7.5)

Tonight he is backing the Chargers as they host the Steelers, and I’m in the strange position of wanting my division rivals to win so I get a game back this week. I’m not hoping that hard…

As the majority of NFL teams reach the quarter mark of the season and take stock of their start to the season, I’m having a rethink about the format of the blog as I’m spending too much time writing up a 3.5-4k picks blog that is big enough that it is stopping me for watching coaching tape and writing about what I see. So I am going to comment on some of the themes from last week, anything that strikes me about the upcoming games, and finally a quicker run through the matchups plus our picks. Let’s not talk about how we both did last week.

The obvious theme that comes out of week four is presented to us by the rotten start the Dolphins have had to the season and the firing of their head coach Joe Philburn. There is more to a team winning than the quarterback or coach, in fact an American football team requires more players, more coaches, and more coordinated effort than any other sporting endeavour I can think of. From the players, to the coaching staff, behind the scenes personnel, and the front office, there are so many ways that a franchise can gain a competitive edge, but this also leaves a huge amount of room for dysfunction. I don’t want to pile on to the Dolphins too much, for the sake of Dan’s sanity as much as anything, but things are clearly not running harmoniously down in Miami.

It is unusual to fire NFL coaches mid-season as so much work is done before the start of the season, and there is so little time to work on new things once the season starts, that in most cases you just have to ride it out with an eye on developing young talent and what is coming up in the draft. However, Miami have too much talent and have invested too much into the short-term to let things slide any longer, and so Philburn had to go. I’ll leave the in depth dissection of Philburn’s tenure to fans of the Dolphins and the media, but the change in coach doesn’t necessarily mean a change in outcome. There were plenty of people impressed by Dan Campbell’s introductory press conference, but it was interesting to listen to Coach Reinebold on the Inside the Huddle podcast point out that despite what he proclaimed when questioned, Campbell will have an opinion on the defensive coaching having gone against them in practice all season, and so he is either not being as forthright as some would believe in that press conference, or he is not paying as much attention in practice as you would want. Either way he has leaped over both coordinators, which may not be that surprising given how they have been performing on both sides of the ball, but is not standard and it will be interesting how the new head coach goes for the rest of the season. The Dolphins seem to very much be under the Chinese curse of may you live in interesting times.

If you look wider, at team records across the league, you will see a lot teams that are familiar to us through offseason splashes in the last couple of years struggling whilst those teams often at the top tend to be quietly developing their teams through careful free agent transactions and the draft. There is no single way to build a football team, but it appears that if you are hearing too much about your team without having to search out information explicitly, then a rough season might be on the way.

With that said, it’s time to take a look at the upcoming games, passing quickly over the mess Dan and I made of our picks last week.

Gee:    Week 4   6-9               Overall   32-31
Dan:    Week 4   4-11             Overall   28-35

Colts @ Texans (+2.5)

The Texans have been a bad team so far, they’re not playing well on defence despite having Sirr JJ of Watt, and Head Coach Bill O’Brien really made a mockery of stating that Hoyer wouldn’t have a short leash by benching him after three quarters in the first game. This team are a living testament to the old saying that if you have two quarterbacks, then you don’t have one, and I’m not surprised that they only started scoring points against the Falcons last week when Hoyer started playing in garbage time, but apparently Mallet remains the starting quarterback.

This week they welcome a Colts team that did enough to win last week with a forty year old backup quarterback against a Jaguars team that can’t quite find a win, but I still don’t trust their defence or offensive line. With the quarterback questions surrounding the Colts I’m still trying to make up my mind as I go through this final edit, Dan has already changed his pick, and I’m reluctantly following suit given the Texans are at home, but I am not happy about it.

Gee’s Pick:    Texans
Dan’s Pick:    Texans

Scheduling note: Dan is away this week, so he has picked the Thursday night game, and will get the rest to me before Sunday so I can get them up on the blog.

Washington @ Falcons (-7.5)

That wasn’t exactly a more concise write up for the last game, but this on is easier. The Falcons are transformed this season, and even a slightly banged up Julio Jones couldn’t slow them down last week. The NFC East is something of a mess this season, but Washington do seem to be able to hang their hat on solid run offence and defence, and look to be finally heading in the right direction, but this is a step too far for them.

Gee’s Pick:     Falcons

Bills @ Titans (+2.5)

The Titans finally are beginning to carve themselves an identity with a blitzing defence, and a rookie quarterback showing promise. Meanwhile the Bills are a confusing 2-2 as they switch between terrifying defence and picked apart. We always knew that the Bills offence could be hit and miss with a first year starter at quarterback, but the better quarterbacks seem to be finding something against Rex Ryan’s pressure schemes. In years to come this probably changes, but I’m not ready to back Marcus Mariota in this one yet.

Gee’s Pick:     Bills

Bears @ Chiefs (-9.5)

I’m struggling to let go of my hope for the Chiefs. They have so much of what I enjoy, a great running back and a stunning pair of pass rushers. The problem is that a combination of offensive line play and Alex smith holding onto the ball on offence, plus a defence that is giving up to much in the passing game, means that they are not winning against the tough teams they’ve faced so far. However, whilst the Bears managed a win last week, I don’t expect them to give the Chiefs too many problems, but I’m not sure that the men in red will be blowing anybody out in the near future, even in front of their famously raucous fans at Arrowhead. I can’t quite believe I’m backing the Bears…

Gee’s Pick:     Bears

Seahawks @ Bengals (-1.5)

Good teams win at home, so the cliché goes, but it has been a foundation of the Bengals recent playoff appearances. They are playing very well this year, although I’d like the pass coverage to improve a bit, but that is a bit picky given that they are still ranked 14^th by Football Outsiders in pass defence. They welcome a Seattle team that have got back to 2-2 by the skin of their teeth, but whilst the defence is looking better with the return of Kam Chancellor, I’m not convinced by their offence, which is not running the ball at all well. If you only just beat the Lions with your famous home field advantage, I’m not backing you to win in the Bengals’ back garden.

Gee’s Pick:     Bengals

Browns @ Ravens (-6.5)

The Ravens haven’t managed the latest roster transition as well as we have come to expect, with a lack of depth at receiver and corner really costing them, but at least they ran the ball a bit better in Pittsburgh in a game they were determined, if a bit lucky to win. The Browns skill players are playing better than I was expecting, and Josh McCown has demonstrated over the last two weeks why he is starting, I’m just not sure what it established over the long term. I expect the Ravens to win, especially given the Browns run defence, but not by seven points or more, even with the Browns travelling to Baltimore

Gee’s Pick:     Browns

Rams @ Packers (-9.5)

The Packers showed they could win another way, and still beat the 49ers by two touchdowns. The Rams defence has now managed to play well for two straight weeks, and if rookie running back Todd Gurly can show more flashes as they work him into the lineup then they might start to edge towards progress, but I don’t see them having any luck against the Packers in Green Bay. In fact, looking at the schedule I’m not sure the Packers will lose in Lambeau during the regular season.

Gee’s Pick:     Packers

Saints @ Eagles (-5.5)

Oh what a holy mess the Eagles are in, but whilst some are enjoying their schadenfreude, I’m just finding it all a bit sad. I was hugely impressed by Kelly in interviews last year, but I did not like a number of his offseason moves, and once the regular season hit the limitations of attempting to beat someone by scheme in a professional setting are all too prevalent. That said, if their line was playing better then they might be able to run the ball better, which has always been the mainstay of this offence.

This week the Eagles welcome a Saints team that got a win last week with the return of Drew Brees. That said, they took overtime to do it and I’m really not impressed with the Saints defence so far. After a long game, and travelling, I have a feeling that they will not have enough to beat the Eagle in Philadelphia, I’m just not sure how close the game will be.

I don’t have a lot of faith in either team, particularly with these points, but I’m reluctantly picking the Eagles, but if you like a bet please stay away from this game!

Gee’s Pick:     Eagles

Jaguars @ Buccaneers (-2.5)

The Buccaneers are going to struggle all year, they can’t rely on their defence, and famous Jameis does not look settled in the pro game, is looking down receiver and throwing too many interceptions. This is one of the games the Jaguars have to have circled, even if they are on the road. They are missing key players yet keeping themselves in games against similar level competition, but they can’t get over the hump. I have a feeling they might win this one though, and as I’m getting points as well…

Gee’s Pick:     Jaguars

Cardinals @ Lions (+2.5)

The Lions played tougher on defence last week, and really should have won the game, but the offence is misfiring. There is a lot of disquiet about Matthew Stafford in Detroit, but with a ropey offensive line and no running game, the Lions aren’t exactly putting him in the best place to win. The problem is that he has never made good decisions, and this week he faces a Cardinals team that will be desperate to get back to winning ways after laying an egg against a division rival. I still believe in the Cardinals coaching staff and I’m backing them to get back to winning ways in this one.

Gee’s Pick:     Cardinals

Patriots @ Cowboys (+9.5)

The Cowboys have a well coached defence, but they didn’t have the players before they started to get injured, and add to that an offence that has lost their starting quarterback and the receiver that stretches the field for them and you have a recipe for trouble. A visit from the Patriots is not what they need to get back on track, and the Cowboys must be kicking themselves for not getting a win in one of the last two weeks as I don’t see a way they will in this one. I’ll be interested to see if the early bye affects the Patriots later in the season, but I see nothing in this game that makes me worrying about the Patriots covering.

Gee’s Pick:     Patriots

Broncos @ Raiders (+5.5)

The Raiders are officially an up and coming team in my book, but they are also young, which means they make mistakes and so they were unable to get a second straight win on the road last week. This week however, they welcome a Broncos team that are struggling on offence as they can’t run the ball consistently, and Peyton Manning threw two bad picks in their close win against the Vikings. The Broncos are a team that right now is relying on their defence, which I suspect means a series of tight games, and whilst I think they will win more than they lose, I think this is too many points to give to the Raiders.

Gee’s Pick:     Raiders

That’s right folks, he just picked the Raiders against an unbeaten team with that defence, I’d better get back to watching coaching tape soon and rely on what I can see with my own two eyes.

49ers @ Giants (-7.5)

The Giants have a solid run defence, and an offence that seems to be coming together as the line play improves and Manning begins to get more timing with the receivers not named Beckham. The 49ers have played one of the toughest schedules in the league so far, and travelling across the country in this game won’t help. They are playing some tough defence in stretches, but are an absolute mess on offence and desperately need to run some bootleg and simpler concept pass plays for Kaepernick who has been a truly dreadful quarterback this season.

Gee’s Pick:     Giants

Steelers @ Chargers (-3.5)

The Chargers always have a chance with Philip Rivers, but whilst there have been good signs from rookie running back Melvin Gordon, injuries on the offensive line have meant that Rivers is taking too many hits. More worryingly, the defence has not been good, and is particularly bad against the run. A ranking of 25^th by defensive DVOA is not what you want when Le’Veon Bell is coming to town. The Steelers should have won the game last Thursday, with Michael Vick demonstrating his limitation, but doing enough to win if the clock management/kicking game had been better. It is not a good spot to be picking an underdog on the road, but they’ve had extra days to get over last week’s overtime and the extra half point sways me that this close game will result in a Steelers cover or win.

Gee’s Pick:     Steelers

Jets @ Dolphins (+2.5)

The first London game of the year sees the 0-3 (edit – as Dan has pointed out, the Dolphins are in fact 1-2, it just feels like 0-3!) Dolphins as the home team. It has been a horrible start to the year for a team that most of us were tipping to make a push for the playoffs in the offseason. However, I wrote that the winners of the offseason are frequently a let down when it comes time to play the games, and this has certainly been the case so far. Despite the expensive addition of Suh that was expected to turn around the defensive line, but in fact this unit seems to have continued its bad play from the end of last season and so there is more to worry about that Suh’s six tackles and absence of sacks. The struggles the Dolphins are having on offence is less of a surprise to me, although I wasn’t expecting it to be so pronounced, but I did notice through both free agency and the draft that the Dolphins front office hadn’t addressed the offensive line that was not good last season so it should not be a surprise that they can’t run the ball this year and are not exactly protecting Tannehill very effectively. Given that I am sure Joe Philburn kept his job more because they wanted to give Tannehill a second year under offensive coordinator Bill Lazor after the improvements he made last season, Philburn will have to turn things round very quickly if he wants to keep his job.

With all of that said, the Jets are probably not the team that you would want to see this week. Their already good front seven now has a secondary worthy of it and first year head coach Todd Bowles has moulded them into an effective unit. They may have lost last week with one of the most Jets-like plays they’ve had in a while (what Brandon Marshall was thinking when he attempted that lateral pass I do not know, I suspect he hasn’t’ been watching the rugby world cup), but they have been solid so far. They will need Ryan Fitzpatrick to protect the ball better than he did against he Eagles as this team can’t win if he throws three touchdowns, but if the offence can run the ball and control the turnovers like they did in the first two game, then with their defence the Jets are going to be a tough team for any team to face.

I think this is a case of the wrong team at the wrong time for the Dolphins, and whilst I hope I’m wrong as Dan is going to Wembley with a Jets fan, I fear this is not going to be his favourite trip to Wembley.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Texans @ Falcons (-6.5)

The Falcons have got off to a strong start to the year, making a case to be considered one of the best teams in the NFC. Their defence is improved under first year head coach Dann Quinn from a unit that finished 2014 at the bottom of the Football Outsiders defensive DVOA, and whilst they may not exactly be intimidating they are doing enough to keep the team in the games. Meanwhile, the offence is flying with Julio Jones demonstrating his extraordinary talents in every game, and the stirrings of a running game.

This week they welcome a Texans team that just don’t appear to be very good. They have some very good individuals on defence, but it is not quite gelling yet, but of that has to be the stuggles on offence. The Texans cannot get their running game going, and are still waiting for Arian Foster to come back from his pre-season groin injury, whilst their quarterback play has been suspect so the only player who has caught the eye has been DeAndre Hopkins. It could be that the Texans are picking a high round quarterback in next year’s draft if they don’t turn around their season.

I do not think the Texans have the offence to keep up with a soaring Falcons on the road, and I don’t think they will be able to cover here.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Falcons

Gaints @ Bills (-5.5)

The Bills bounced back from a horrible loss to the Patriots with an incredibly sound beating of the Dolphins. Their defence returned to their aggressive selves, stifling the Dolphins whilst the offence racked up over four hundred yards. If Tyrod Taylor can protect the ball in his first season as a starter then there is a good chance the Bills can be in contentions for the playoffs at the end of the season.

The Giants got the win last week, but their offence has to become more efficient in their opponents half for them to win consistently. They kicked far too many field goals last week, and the fact that they hosted a number of receivers for workouts this week indicates that they are not happy with their depth at receiver. The defence stood up to Washington’s run game last week, but there was very little pass rush and their only sack came on a six man blitz and a lot of their other pressure was more situational as Washington was forced to throw to get back into the game.

It will be interesting to see if the Bills can establish the run in this game, but I have a feeling that it is going to be a long day for Eli Manning against the Bills defence and so I’m backing the Bills to cover in this one.

Gee’s Pick:      Bills
Dan’s Pick:      Bills

Raiders @ Bears (+2.5)

It would appear that the Bears are already giving up on this season, with trades of both Jared Allen and Jon Bostic for draft picks echoing baseball’s tradition of selling players when it’s time to rebuild. They managed to avoid turnovers on offfence, with ten punts and no points as they were shut out by the Seahawks. There are very few bright spots for this team and they will be picking very early at the next draft.

This week the Bears welcome a Raiders team who broke their road losing streak in Cleveland, and who are clearly on the rise. The burgeoning partnership between Derek Carr and Amari Cooper is already beginning to look how the Raiders would have hoped when they drafted Cooper back in April, and Khalil Mack got his first sacks of the year from his new position of defensive end.

It still feels slightly surreal to be doing this, but I am actually going to back the Raiders to get a second win on the road against the Bears.

Gee’s Pick:      Raiders
Dan’s Pick:      Raiders

Chiefs @ Bengals (-3.5)

The Bengals continue to make me hopeful despite some questionable tackling at times on defence, but Andy Dalton led the comeback when I was getting nervous, and AJ Green had a monster game. If the defence can continue to hold up and the offence stays looking this good then Bengals might do more than just get their first playoff win in an eternity, but before we get ahead of ourselves, they are about to start a nasty stretch of games welcoming the Chiefs and the Seahawks before visiting the Bills and Steelers. There are worse road games to come, but the Bengals need to win enough of these games to stay atop the AFC North, however starting the season with two away wins help.

I think the Chiefs are better than their 1-2 record suggests. They have one of the game’s best running backs in Jamaal Charles, and a tremendous pair of pass rushers in Justin Houston and Tamba Hali. Those pass rusher though did not help them against an otherworldly Aaron Rodgers as their secondary couldn’t keep do enough to slow the Packers down. Meanwhile, although Alex Smith is a very solid quarterback, he is not going to get you multiple explosive plays.

I am worried about this game, the Chiefs are a solid team and I really respect their pass rush. I’m hoping that a combination of the Bengals’ good offensive line can hold up to give Andy Dalton time to find the myriad of players he has available to him, and that the defence can bottle up Charles but they will have to tackle better. Still, I am hopeful in this game, and the Bengals have been very solid at home in recent season so I will nervously back them to go 4-0.

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Jags @ Colts (-9.5)

The Colts finally got a win last week in a very up and down game against the Titans. They were 14-0 up in the second quarter, 14-27 down in the third quarter, before finally running out 35-33 winners after the Titans failed a two point conversion. The changes to their offensive line helped them establish a rung game with Frank Gore getting a pair of rushing touchdowns and eighty-six yards, but Andrew Luck still threw two interceptions, and was sacked three times. Their defence also gave up over four hundred yards, so whilst the away divisional win was important for them, I’m not sure how many of their problems were truly fixed given that it mostly surrounds the talent on the roster and what is going on with the front office.

However, if you are trying to sort out a team, then playing two of your AFC South rivals back to back might not be the worst thing to do. The Jaguars are still missing a lot of players, and there are still a lot of questions about Blake Bortles, but at least Allen Robinson is back this season and managed a bit play against the Patriots, but they really weren’t ready to compete in that game.

I really think that this is too many points for the Colts to be getting against the Jags, but I can’t bring myself to risk the Jaguars on the road again so I’m reluctantly backing the Colts to break even thanks to the state of the division they play in.

Gee’s Pick:      Colts
Dan’s Pick:      Colts

Eagles @ Washington (+3.5)

Washington started the season looking solid against a Dolphins team that we now know are struggling, got a win against the Rams, but struggled against the Giants away on the Thursday night. The limitations of Kirk Cousins really showed themselves last week, and if Washington can’t establish their running game, or get behind then I think they will really struggle on offence. Their defence line has improved and they have been stouter against the run so far this season, but they are still suspect in the pass game, and losing DeAngelo Hall for a few weeks will not helpt.

The Eagles finally got their first win last week, and it is a sign of the state of the NFC East that they by no means out of the running to win the division, but they still need to improve. On offence Sam Bradford still does not look comfortable, and the lack of a receiver that can get themselves open without the scheme is causing issues, but more worrying is the problems they are having running the ball as that is what Chip Kelly’s offence is predicated on. They did better against the Jets, but their line still doesn’t seem to be playing that well and it will be interesting to see what they can do in Washington. Their defence front has looked pretty good so far this season, but their secondary is asked to do a lot of singe man coverage, and has not held up well until last week. They were however facing a quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick who can be streaky, but given they are facing Cousins this week, this might be another week where they improve.

There are still problems with the Eagles, and there are a few moves in the offseason that Kelly made that worried me, but they have their first and things may be coming round. This might be a bad pick given that they are on the road, but Washington are not as good as the Jets and so I fancy Eagles to get back to 2-2 from their shaky start.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick:      Eagles

Panthers @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

The Buccaneers bumped back down to 1-2 against the Texans last week as they continue to go through the growing pains of having a rookie quarterback. It is too early to tell how he will in the long run, but they were shut out in the second half and continue to struggle, The defence also seems to be up and down, only generating one turn over last week, and it does appear to be another long year in Tampa.

The Panthers are a limited team on offence, but are good on defence despite missing the great linebacker Luke Kuechly to concussion, and have made the best of a run of winnable games to remain unbeaten. Their offence has centred around Cam Newton and his ability to run as well as pass, with Greg Olson living up to the billing of number one receiver that was enforced by the injury to Kelvin Benjamin.

We will know more about the Panthers later in the season when they have to face the likes of the Seattle and Green Bay, but this week I think they will have more than enough to take care of the Bucs on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Panthers
Dan’s Pick:      Panthers

Browns @ Chargers (-7.5)

The Chargers have struggled after a promising opening game, and got thoroughly beaten on the road to the Vikings last week. The suspension to Antonio Gates isn’t helping, but more worrying was the pressure the Vikings got with four sacks and thirteen quarterback hits. The offence is the dominant side of the ball for this team, and they will need to do a better job of protecting Philip Rivers if they are to get back to winning ways as their defence has been struggling, and is currently ranked twenty-third by DVOA.

The Browns are a hard team to read, with a defensive head coach that only has his team ranked in the mid-twenties, questions at quarterback, and problems with their skill players. An NFL head coach has to win as many games as possible, but I’m not sure what the Browns are gaining by playing Josh McCown at his age when they really need to find out if they have something in Johnny Manziel. I suspect not, but they are not going to find out with him holding a clipboard on the sideline, and whilst they came back late to make the score look respectable, they seem to be holding station with how they finished the season last year, whilst the Raiders team they were playing are on the rise.

I am very much worried by the points, but I do not trust the Browns travelling to the west coast and playing a team that if nothing else, has an elite quarterback.

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick:      Chargers

Vikings @ Broncos (-6.5)

I am trying to resist the boom and bust reaction that Peyton manning is generating after every game the Broncos play, but he at least more comfortable as the Broncos settled into a more familiar offence for him. The questions will remain about his arm because he is thirty-nine and he was never the most physically gifted of quarterbacks, but he was always so smart and still has enough to be effective in bursts and that is all this team needs to win at the moment. Their defence is playing so well that Broncos are 3-0 despite the bumpy start they have had on offence, and as long as the Broncos can keep this formula going they will win more games than not.

The Vikings had a very good win last week, with their defence looking very good as they got so much pressure and Adrian Peterson is beginning to look much more like himself. The Vikings are now getting him the number of touches he needs, and he appears to have shaken off the rust that was holding back in the first couple of games. With Mike Zimmer’s double a gap pressure, there is a distinct possibility that the Vikings have the tools to really exploit the problems the Broncos on offence as although Peyton has always been exceptional against the blitz, the Broncos line has been questionable at guard and I have a feeling that the Vikings could well exploit this.

With the Broncos defence playing as well as it is, and Teddy Bridgewater not yet convincing, you can see the Broncos committing to stifling Peterson in the run game and daring Bridgewater to beat them with his arm. However, whilst the Vikings may well struggle on offence, I have a feeling that this good young defence is going to cause the Broncos problems, and I see a close game that is nip and tuck. I often get stung by road underdogs with lines in this range, but that’s not going to stop me from backing the Vikings to get a sneaky cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Broncos

Packers @ 49ers (+9.5)

There isn’t so much to write about in this game. In Jim Tomsula they have a head coach who will keep the team unified, but they simply lost too much top level talent in the offseason and Colin Kaepernick has not developed as a quarterback and threw a pair of pick sixes to start the game, and finished with four interceptions and a grand total of sixty-seven yards.

The Packers on the other hand have a quarterback who is otherworldly, matching his physical skills to his experience and a great understanding of the game. They have not missed a beat despite losing their top receiver in the preseason, and their defence is doing enough, although there do still look like they are weak against the run.

I can only see this game going one way, even if Rodgers is not quite as good on the road as he is in Green Bay.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Rams @ Cardinals (-6.5)

The Cardinals have got off to a great start to the season, and whilst they may not have faced the cream of the NFL, they have won in a convincing fashion against the teams put in front of them. Carson Palmer has looked excellent whilst Larry Fitzgerald has excelled in the slot and leads the team in both yards and touchdowns. Their defence has also looked good, and should have more than enough to cope with a Rams team that once again looks challenged on offence.

The Rams seem to be having the same season again. They have the scary front seven on defence, an offence that isn’t quite working, and they will play some teams tough whilst generally losing. They were unable to beat a Steelers team despite knocking Ben Roethlisberger out of the game, and I worry about their ability to generate offence.

This is one of those games where I could regret picking against the Rams as they always have the ability to generate a surprise in a divisional game, but I don’t expect them to have enough to cope with a soaring Cardinals team on the road.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Caridnals

Cowboys @ Saints (-4.5)

This is likely a matchup of backup quarterbacks, and superficially Luke McCown didn’t look too bad for the Saints as he completed thirty-one of thirty-eight passes for over three hundred yards, but he didn’t throw any touchdowns and did throw a pick. More worrying for the Saints, there appears to be no turn around on their defence, which was bad last season and doesn’t appear to have improved this one. Gone are the days when the Saints dominated at home and so you worry about them in this game.

The Cowboys really struggled in this game, with the absence of Dez Bryant really causing a lot of their problems as the Falcons were able to stack the line against the run as they didn’t fear Brandon Weedon exposing them in the passing game. If you look at the Football Outsiders defensive rankings, you well expect the Cowboys to have similar problems this week against the Saints, except the Falcons are trending up on defence, and I really have no confidence in Rob Ryan’s unit.

This is another of those games that is hard to pick, but I really don’t like the Saints, particularly with Drew Brees either sat on the bench or playing with his rotator cuff issues.

Gee’s Pick:      Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Lions @ Seahawks (-9.5)

The Seahawks looked much more like themselves last week on defence, despite Kam Chancellor playing limited as he makes his way back to game shape, but going against the Bears in their current state will help you. However, the Lions have not looked good so far on offence so you can see the Seahawks defence’s improvement to continue this weekend. The offence however still worries me, Marshawn Lynch doesn’t look like himself, although we don’t know if this is age catching up with the running back, or the state of Seattle’s offensive line, but either way they are not running the ball as in season’s pass. Nor do they seem to be turning around a passing game that has not historically been that high powered, although Jimmy Graham did get more touches and a touchdown last week.

The Lions have had an awful start to the season. On offence Matthew Stafford has had rib issues, which perhaps is not surprising given that their line doesn’t appear to have improved. They are not running the ball well, and it is not often that you hear a player tell the media that the opposition knew their plays as Golden Tate did this week. If this weren’t bad enough, the defence has also struggled to find their way, not helped by losing their outstanding coverage linebacker DeAndre Levy on top of the rest of the turmoil this unit had in the offseason we the high profile shake up on the line.

The Lions really seem to have hit a wall following last season, and I can’t see them going into Seattle and turning this round against a Seahawks team who really need to get themselves back in the playoff hunt.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Seahawks

Dan has been a model of consistency so far this season, going 8-8 each week whilst I’ve been up and down so if we follow the same patterns I should be about to have a horrible week and end up level with Dan again. Week three saw less upsets, and some teams without wins begin to turn things round so let’s get started with the upcoming Thursday night game, with the rest to follow in the next couple of days.

Gee:    Week 3   10-6              Overall   26-22

Dan:    Week 3   8-8                Overall   24-24

Ravens @ Steelers (+2.5)

The headline news for the Steelers was not their win against the Rams, but that what looked like a nasty injury to Ben Roethlisberger is in fact a sprained MCL so he is gone for a few weeks rather than the season. Looking forward the question is whether Michael Vick can keep the Steelers in the hunt for the playoffs until Roethlisberger can get back, and this is a big question as it as it has been a while since Michael Vick has looked like a starting quarterback. However, if Le’Veon Bell can keep totting up the one hundred thirty total yard games, and Antonio Brown remains in the discussion as one of the best receivers in the game then they have a chance, but the defence has to hold up to keep them in it.

The Ravens nearly got themselves a win, and are surely one of the best 0-3 teams in recent years. The problem is that they are not rushing the passer and their secondary isn’t holding up their end on defence, whilst on offence they suddenly can’t run the ball. This surely must be system related as the o-line and running backs are pretty much the same, but whatever the cause it needs fixing in a hurry. The real bright spark last week was Steve Smiths’ one hundred and eighty-six yards and two touchdowns, which included one catch down the sideline on fourth and two, threw off one defender and ran the ball in for a fifty yard touchdown when he really should have been tackled. In previous years they might have got the comeback, but against this year’s Bengals they weren’t able to cover the receivers and Dalton didn’t fall apart.

This is a really hard game for me to pick because I don’t trust Michael Vick as a starter, there have been ball security issues in recent seasons and he lost the ball once coming in for Roethlisberger against the Rams. Equally, the Steelers have a lot more talent on offence at the moment, and whilst I find it hard to believe that the Ravens will go 0-4, I have this feeling that the Steelers might just sneak it and they’re getting points at home. I could well regret this, but until somebody other than Steve Smith shows up for the Ravens, I’m backing the Steelers even with their backup quarterback.

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers