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NFL Week 2 Picks

11 Thursday Sep 2014

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So after the week 1 picks I am a single game ahead of Dan. I’m happy that both of our teams won their first game and my favourite pick of last week was getting the Texans (-2.5) over Washington right. So here are our picks for week 2.

Steelers @ Ravens (-2.5)

The Steelers were run close by the Browns last week, but I think the Browns will do this to a few teams over the course of the season so I am not too worried about that. The Ravens’ offence, and Flacco in particular, seemed to be misfiring against the Bengals, and that was before the whirlwind of attention that now surrounds them. I don’t know if the players will rally round each other or fall apart so I’m picking the known quantity and taking the points.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick:      Steelers

Dan’s Comment: – The Browns took the Steelers really close in Week one, but I can’t see Baltimore doing the same this week.

Falcons @ Bengals (-5.5)

I said last week that the Saints @ Falcons game was probably a trap, and then I walked straight into it. In fairness, I think that this is a mistake that a lot of people made. The Falcons looked really good with Matt Ryan reminding people of just what a good quarterback he can be. The Bengals made a good start to their season with a win in Baltimore. I didn’t like the red zone woes that led to five field goals, but the touchdown to win was what this team needs to win in the playoffs, they have to perform under pressure. I see this as a close game that the Bengals will win, but I think the Falcons will cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Falcons
Dan’s Pick:      Bengals

Dan’s Comment: – Difficult to pick this one, I think it’ll be close.

Dolphins @ Bills (+0.5)

I thought that the Dolphins were in for a good season, but I hadn’t accounted for the Patriots woes travelling to Miami and whilst I begrudge losing a point to Dan based on a pick of blind hope, I’m still happy for him. The Bills had a good win against the Bears, but I don’t know if I trust them or how much of their win was good play, and how much was problems with the Bears. Right now I trust the Dolphins more and so that’s where I’m picking.

Gee’s Pick:      Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:      Dolphins

Dan’s Comment: – We beat the Patriots last week so the Bills should be a walk-over…!

Saints @ Browns (+6.5)

The Saints lost a game last week in overtime, but there was a bad interception and a fumble from their offence. We know who they this team are on that side of the ball and I don’t see them having those problems again. However, the Browns covered their spread last week, have a tough defence and whilst I think they will fall short of a win, I think they might just cover in a loss.

Gee’s Pick:      Browns
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Cowboys @ Titans (-3.5)

Last week I was rewarded by not trusting the Cowboys. The narrative surrounding them before the season was that their offence was going to be good because it had to be. However, although offensive their line looked good, Tony Romo did not, and the Cowboys were 21-3 down before the end of the first quarter. This shouldn’t necessarily be surprising as Romo’s own QB coach was saying in preseason that his deep ball didn’t look good and that it was due to his back. Their defence did play a little better than expected, but at the risk of overreacting to week 1, I think it is going to a pretty miserable season for the Cowboys. The Titans came out last week and were better than solid. Jake Locker did some good things, they have a good set of young receivers and they took care of the Kansas City Chiefs whilst playing in one of the more difficult stadiums for visiting teams. I think I know which way this game is going.

Gee’s Pick:      Titans
Dan’s Pick:      Cowboys

Lions @ Panthers (-2.5)

The Panthers won last week despite having Cam Newton held out, their defence continued to be great and they were better than many feared. However, the Lions also got off to a good start with a good win over the Giants. I haven’t really got a great feel for either team, but the early numbers from Football Outsiders has the Lions three places above the Panthers, combine this with getting points and I’m going with the Lions again.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick:      Lions

Patriots @ Vikings (+3.5)

The Patriots’ long term line coach retires, the Patriots trade away Logan Mankins, and they have line problems with Brady picking himself off the ground more than usual. I don’t know if these things are actually connected, but they feel like they are. I’m fighting myself a little as Coach Belichick doesn’t lose consecutive games often, but I think I’m taking the points again. The Vikings looked good, Norv Turner made excellent use of Cordarrelle Patterson and Mike Zimmer know how to build defences. I could regret this, but I’m backing the Vikings at home.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick:      Vikings

Dan’s Comment: -Fingers crossed for an early fall-apart for the Patriots!

Cardinals @ Giants (-1.5)

I’m surprised the Giants are giving points and not getting them I’ve seen nothing on either side of the ball to make me thing that there going to have anything but a difficult year. The Cardinals however, are looking pretty good, being solid on both sides of the ball and I think they are going to win this one handily.

Gee’s Pick:      Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:      Giants

Jaguars @ Washington (-5.5)

The Jaguars came out and were 17-0 up at half time against the Eagles and whilst they didn’t cover, they showed the promise I thought was building in Jacksonville and given that number of points I would pick them again. This week they come up against a Washington team that I think are struggling, and whilst I think they may progress during the season, I don’t think this is going to be a quick process and so for the second straight week I’m picking the Jaguars.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:      Washington

Rams @ Buccaneers (-5.5)

There is so much talent in the front seven of the Rams and I think their pass rush is really good, but they are also dead last in the early season rankings at Football Outsiders and got beaten convincingly by the Vikings last week. The Buccaneers didn’t win as I thought they would, but I think that is partly because the Panthers were not as bad as many predicted, and whilst they’re only four places higher than the Rams according to Football Outsiders, they are a pretty whopping 49.3 percentage points ahead.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:      Buccaneers

Dan’s Comment: – I’ll put this out there – I think this’ll be a terrible game.

Seahawks @ Chargers (+5.5)

I was so impressed with the Seahawks last week, and even though they do have an impressive home advantage, I can’t look past them in this game. I think the Chargers have a really good offence and are in for a great year, but I think the Seahawks will win this game and continue to be the team to beat.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick       Seahawks

Chiefs @ Broncos (-13.5)

Oh the poor Chiefs. I think I was just wrong on this one, they lost two starters on defence to achilles tears during the game, and Alex Smith started throwing interceptions. I think their start of the season was pretty disastrous, they need to run Jamaal Charles more, and going to the Broncos is not the place where they can start turning their season round. The Broncos started the season really well and in this game I’m only worried about the number of points they’re giving.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick       Broncos

Jets @ Packers (-8.5)

The Packers had problems on the line, but were facing an exceptional defence in a very difficult stadium to play in. I don’t think it is panic time yet, but the question is whether their defence can be good enough for them to win games as the offence will do better most weeks. The Jets won against the Raiders but the score wasn’t exceptional, and whilst my instinct is that Rex Ryan will find a way to keep it close, their secondary is the polar opposite to the Seahawks and I think that Rodgers will get their season going. I may regret this but I’ll go against the points this time.

Gee’s Pick:      Packers
Dan’s Pick       Packers

Dan’s Comment: – Packers out for revenge this week. Heavy win in week two.

Texans @ Raiders (+2.5)

The Texans got their season off to a win, even without Jadeveon Clowney who went down with a meniscus tear. This is because JJ Watt is just amazing, and whilst there are still question about their offence, I know which way I’m going with this game. I think there are signs that things might turn around for the Raiders, but whilst they may have a strong showing, I don’t think they have enough to beat the Texans.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick       Texans

Bears @ 49ers (-7.5)

I hate the line for this game. The Bears struggled in week 1, demonstrating how much their good health on offence helped them last season, and reminding us of some of dangers in Cutler’s decision making. The 49ers had a good win against the Cowboys, but the injuries and suspensions still means they could have problems and I’m not sure how much we really learnt in week 1 due to the Cowboys’ problems. I think the 49ers will win this game, but I’m worried about the points. I’m going with my first instincts thought so I’m taking the home team.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick       Bears

Eagles @ Colts (-2.5)

I underestimated just how good Andrew Luck is, but the team has just lost its best pass rusher before he can even play a game and I’m still not convinced by them overall. The Eagles may be shuffling their offence line and Nick Foles has begun to return to a human number of interceptions, but they stuck an unanswered 34 points on the Jaguars in the second half last week and I remain a believer in Chip Kelly.

Gee’s Pick:      Eagles
Dan’s Pick       Colts

Dan’s Comment: – Colts took the Broncos much closer than people expected last weekend so maybe another good game with the Eagles.

The Domestic Violence Problem in the NFL

10 Wednesday Sep 2014

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It has been a slightly strange week, and I am meant to be writing my Week 2 Picks blog, but I don’t feel I can get started until I have addressed something that simply can’t be ignored. I’ll get back to writing about my competition with Dan and what’s going on around the league shortly, but first I have to address the recent news surrounding the Baltimore Ravens.

It is not actually news that the NFL has a problem with women. The league’s handling of previous incidences of domestic violence has not exactly been progressive, and the two game ban that was given to Ray Rice this summer was widely criticised at the time. I have not watched the video of him dragging his unconscious, then fiancé now wife, out of an elevator. Nor have I watched the video released on Monday by TMZ that showed him punching his wife to render her unconscious. Finally stung into action, the Baltimore Ravens have released him from their roster and the NFL have belatedly suspended him indefinitely, whilst they figure out what they can do. I have no wish to watch these videos; the bare facts in words are enough information for me.

I have a lot of thoughts on this situation. Things to do with the rookie program, the structure of society, the actions of both the Ravens and the league, and the repeated incidents of still active NFL players. The problem is that I don’t feel qualified to write them yet. One of the famous tenants of the Hippocratic Oath is to do no harm. I had got as far as beginning to research guidance for writing about domestic violence before the events of Monday. I was already aware that I was skirting around the issue when writing about Rice’s suspension last week, but I had not had a chance to study the documents I had found properly, and frankly what the world needs least right now is another unqualified person sounding off.

Frankly this isn’t good enough. My sister in law writes frequently about feminism and her twitter feed (and by extension mine) is an education. I don’t know always know where I stand when reading these articles, and I am fairly certain that men telling women what to do, think, and behave is how we got into this mess in the first place, but, I do believe in equality. I believe there are structural problems in our society affecting many people who are not lucky enough to be white middle class men, and we have to address them.

What the NFL needs to do is to address the issue of domestic violence directly, not with a hastily brought out new domestic violence policy, but with people taking responsibility for their previous actions, and a proper review that involves talking to people who know the issues at hands intimately and know what the proper response is. There is an aspect of the culture that goes with the game that I love, that is simply not acceptable to anyone with a sense of fairness. It’s not unique to the sport of American Football, but that does not mean we shouldn’t make a stand. It means those of us who love the league, taking a long hard look at ourselves and fighting against those aspects that are abhorrent to us.

For me this means I have a lot of reading and research to do. This problem is not going to just go away and so I want to be in a position to write effectively and safely about it the next time it happens, and the next time, and then again, until hopefully one day we don’t have to do this any more because we really shouldn’t have to.

NFL Week 1: Packers @ Seahawks Recap

07 Sunday Sep 2014

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I thoroughly enjoyed the first game of the season. I have been through most of the coach’s tape, and it opens up a whole new world of things to look at, sadly I am limited by boring things like having a life, but here is what I took away from the game.

My things to watch list for these teams contained Aaron Rodgers, AJ Hawk, and Clay Mathews for the Packers; and for the Seahawks it was their secondary and Russell Wilson. I added watching how Julius Peppers would rush standing up as a linebacker.

We know that the Seahawks defence is good, but it really was excellent in this game. On the all twenty two tape it was easy to see how Earl Campbell sat deep and played the whole field, whilst the corners covered their side, and Kam Chancellor roved depending on the coverage called. Richard Sherman clearly had his receiver covered, but the Packers basically gave up on his side of the field as Rodgers hardly looked right all game. This was so obvious that I spotted it in the broadcast coverage whilst watching the condensed game, and it turns out that Sherman wasn’t targeted once all game. I can’t help but feel that you have to challenge Sherman somehow if you are going to beat the Seahawks, although I freely admit I wouldn’t know how.

You could see glimpses of what makes Rodgers so good, the arm, his manoeuvrability, but also that in being willing to hold onto the ball to make a pay, he takes sacks that he doesn’t have to. In fairness, the interception was not his fault, the ball bounced off the hands of his receiver and was well picked off by Byron Maxwell. The Packers struggled to move the ball and in the first half their two scores came from large chunks that were not successful plays on their part. The first came of a long pass interference call on Bobby Wagner and the second from recovered punt where Richared Sherman blocked his man into Earl Campbell, demonstrating that the pair of outstanding defensive backs are human after all.

The killer plays for the Packers were the two consecutive offensive plays in the third quarter where backup tackle Derek Sherrod gave up sacks. The first play was on fourth and five, with the Seahawks only rushing four and yet somehow they didn’t account for Cliff Avril at left defensive end, who came barely touched to sack Rodgers. There’s no way for me to know the play call or the protection, but although James Starks was on that right side of Rodgers in a shotgun formation, on the snap of the ball, after barely a pause, Starks runs a curl through the line, whilst Sherrod without having looked outside of him focuses on the tackle over him and then tries too late to stop Avril who is already past him. That’s the drive done and the Seahawks get the ball. The Seahawks don’t drive the ball successfully so after five plays they punt the ball. However, on the first play of the next drive, on the Packers own three yard line, Michael Bennet blows past Sherrod to get a strip sack that leads to a safety. These were not the first time that I saw Sherrod beaten this game, let’s hope this doesn’t become a long term problem.

The Packers do manage a nice drive in the fourth quarter to get a touchdown, with a failed two point conversion, but by then it is too late. We shouldn’t overreact to the first game of the season, it’s not exactly unprecedented for the Seahawks to be excellent on defence or beat teams handily at home, but it will be interesting to see how the Packers offence goes the rest of the season.

On offence for the Seahawks, I loved what they did with Russell Wilson, who is not your prototypical pocket passer and is only five foot eleven. However, he is very careful with the ball and the Seahawks put him in position to make plays, by using his manoeuvrability. The very real running threat make their read option plays dangerous, helped by just how good Marshawn Lynch is as a running back. This accounted for both of their first half touchdowns. The first was my favourite play on offence of the game. Russell Wilson first fakes the hand off to Marshawn Lynch then tucks the ball as if to run, but when corner Sam Shields bites on the play as a run, Wilson then pulls up and flips a pass to Ricardo Lockette who runs in the TD. For the second touchdown, Clay Mathews was staring into the backfield during the handoff, and gets sealed by the tight end Luke Williams coming across the line unseen so Mathews can’t make the tackle to stop Lynch running it in.

Marshawn Lynch is so good, very light on his feet and makes his cuts so well. I also love Eddie Lacy, whose cuts are so violent, but in this game he was bottled up by the Seahawks defence, but there were two great backs in this game.

It was harder to get a read on the Packers defence. Time will tell, but although I saw a couple of good plays from Peppers and Mathews, nothing really leapt at me. The one thing that the all twenty two did reveal on the Packers defence was how Percy Harvin got so open in the first half, which was when Morgan Burnett ran into linebacker AJ Hawk, allowing Harvin to get open for a thirty three yard gain.

Overall I wouldn’t be panicking just yet if I was a Packers fan, but I might be lowering my expectations a little after some of the bullish talk that was surrounding them during pre-season. The Seahawks looked like the team who have dominated at home in recent years and I expect them to go well again this season as long as they avoid the injury bug.

NFL Week 1 Picks

04 Thursday Sep 2014

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This year I will be attempting to pick all of the games against the spread as I find it a useful way of helping me confirm what I think about teams. It is also a useful way of demonstrating the dangers of gambling as it is very hard to get them right, and the NFL just isn’t that predictable. Thanks to the blog, I have roped in my friend Dan to be picking with me in a friendly competition (for the record his parting shot was, “Not this season as it’s my first time. Next season you’re going down!”) and we’re taking our lines from the ESPN Pigskin Pick’em so feel free to join us here and show us up.

Packers @ Seahawks (-5.5)

This game gave me a little pause, before I considered what the Seahawks did to the Broncos in the Super Bowl, the number of players they have coming back, and that they have one of the best home advantages in the league. The Packers are going to be good this season, but their defence needs to hold up for the entire season despite losing BJ Raji to injury already, and there are more on they way.

Gee’s Pick:      Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:      Packers

Saints @ Falcons (-1.5)

This one seems fairly straight forward and so is probably a trap, but the Saints looked really strong in preseason and the Falcons went 4-12 last season. The Falcons will be better this year, but I don’t think they’ll be starting the year with a win.

Gee’s Picke:    Saints
Dan’s Pick:      Saints

Bills @ Bears (-6.5)

I am worried about the Bills. I really didn’t like them moving up to grab a receiver when they’re not already a good team (frankly I don’t like giving up picks much anyway, but certainly not high picks), and they are not set at quarterback. I think they’re going to miss Mike Pettine as their defensive coordinator so I can see that side of the ball taking a step back. There are problems with the Bears defence, but they’ll be better than last year and the offence will be good again as long as Cutler can stay on the field so for me this is an easy pick this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Bears
Dan’s Pick       Bears

Bengals @ Ravens (-2.5)

I suspect that I am going to be wrong both ways on the Bengals all season depending on how they go and my fan reaction to it, but I believe that they’re going to be good. I respect the way that the Ravens are run, and I’m sure they will be better this year, but I think Flacco is overpaid for his production, I’m not sure about their offensive line, and with Ray Rice suspended, I think their offence is going to struggle. And I’m getting points!

Gee’s Pick:      Bengals
Dan’s Pick       Bengals

Dan’s Comment: – “This’ll be extremely close. I could see that one going either way.”

Browns @ Steelers (-5.5)

I think the Browns are going to be a tough side to beat this year as their defence was good last year, and with Pettine as their head coach I think they will be better. However, with Josh Gordon suspended and the mess at quarterback I don’t see them improving their record much. I don’t like the way the Steelers have managed their cap in recent years, which feels weird to say for a franchise that historically has been so well run, but they’ve held on to too many of their guys on big contracts. Still, Tomlin is a good coach, I love Dick LeBeau as a coordinator and I think they will be there or there about all season. I think the Browns will be good for some underdog covers, but not this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Steelers
Dan’s Pick       Steelers

Dan’s Comment: – “I don’t think the Johnny Football effect will be enough for Browns to pick up the Win in this one.”

Titans @ Chiefs (-6.5)

A lot of people are saying that this is a regression season for the Chiefs, and I can see the argument due to their easy schedule last year and some of the things that have happened so far this year. However, although no one likes picking him, Alex Smith wins games; Dontari Poe is one of my favourite defensive players; and Jamaal Charles is a beast. There are problems with receivers, but I’m not scared of this team. On the other side, I have no feel for the Titans at all and whilst they may well be solid, I’m going to need to see more from them before I pick them. I’m worried about the points, and I may regret this, but I’m going with the Chiefs.

Gee’s Pick:      Chiefs
Dan’s Pick       Chiefs

Raiders @ Jets (-4.5)

I think the Raiders are in for another tough season, but I was interested to see that they’re starting Derek Carr, and combined with Khalil Mack, that makes two interesting reasons to look at the Raiders. How long has it been since you could say that? However, whilst there are questions about their pass defence and Geno Smith’s development, the Jets should have enough to cover those points.

Gee’s Pick:      Jets
Dan’s Pick       Jets

Dan’s Comment: – “I feel horrible going for the Jets here, but just can’t see the Raiders getting out of the blocks before about week 3.”

Vikings @ Rams (-6.5)

That’s a lot of points for the Rams and they don’t have their starting quarterback. Their defence is going to be tough with a terrific pass rush, but it’s going to be a long season for the Rams. I have no idea what the Vikings’ record is going to be like, but I think Mike Zimmer will have them playing much better and I think this is a good way for them to start the season.

Gee’s Pick:      Vikings
Dan’s Pick       Vikings

Dan’s Comment: – “Easy win for the Vikings this week (which will make my dad very happy!)”

Patriots @ Dolphins (+3.5)

The Dolphins are another team that I think are on the rise, but I’m not sure how that is going to translate in terms of their record. The Patriots however, had a nice offseason and the Dolphins do not have the best home record, which may change but not in this game.

Gee’s Pick:      Patriots
Dan’s Pick       Dolphins

Dan’s Comment: – “Dolphins picked out of pure blind hope!”

Jaguars @ Eagles (-11.5)

I’m all in on Chip Kelly, and I think the Eagles are going to have a great year and I’m looking forward to seeing them. I also think that Gus Bradley is doing a good job of turning round the Jaguars and whilst I’m not predicting a playoff record, I think they will be tough team to play. I think the Eagles win, but I’m going for the Jaguars to cover.

Gee’s Pick:      Jaguars
Dan’s Pick       Eagles

Washington @ Texans (-2.5)

I’m not convinced by Washington. I’m not at all sure about their defence and the new offensive scheme is taking time to bed in as RG3 have never been asked to be a pocket passer before. I don’t know if this is going to work out or not, but I don’t think it is going to happen in week 1. The Texans have Ryan Fitzpatrick and this should scare me, but they also have JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney. I repeat, JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney! This maybe my excitement over those two on the same team getting the better of me, but I think there’s too much talent on this team for a repeat of last years record. Again, I’m not saying playoffs, but I think the turnaround starts here.

Gee’s Pick:      Texans
Dan’s Pick       Washington

49ers @ Cowboys (+4.5)

I think the 49ers are in for a tough year. They lost players, have important players suspended, and have been to the last three conference championship games. I think they are too deep and too well run to have a disaster, but they are in a division where they will beat the hell out of each other. The Cowboys are relying on their offence this year as the already bad defence has got worse. I’m really not sure what is going to happen in this game, and I should take the points, but I trust the 49ers and not the Cowboys. I think the 49ers will win this one and I’m hoping by enough points.

Gee’s Pick:      49ers
Dan’s Pick       49ers

Panthers @ Buccaneers (+1.5)

I like the Buccaneers this year. These are another of my improved teams, this one being a major potential case of WARM or wins above Raheem Morris, a faux statistical term invented by Bill Simmons to cover a team’s improvement accounted for by having a competent coach follow the firing of a bad one. Last year’s Chiefs were a great example of this and I think under Lovie Smith, a proven coach the Bucs will take big steps forward. The Panthers on the other hand, have walked into a salary cap nightmare after making the playoffs last season. Their line is bad, their receivers are bad and I think they are going to take a step back this year, starting in Tampa this week.

Gee’s Pick:      Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick       Panthers

Colts @ Broncos (-6.5)

The Broncos appear to have looked at the tape of the Super Bowl, taken note and addressed their defence and what went wrong, having themselves what looks like a really good offseason. This maybe the year where age catches up with Peyton Manning, but he’s earned our trust until he can’t do it any more. The Colts might be covering more holes with Andrew Luck’s great play than many realise. This is a team that traded away a first round pick for the Brown’s possible first round bust in Trent Richardson. In the modern NFL, you don’t need to pick running backs in the first round, yet alone effectively have two teams do it. I could be wrong on this as you shouldn’t underestimate Andrew Luck, but I don’t think so this time.

Gee’s Pick:      Broncos
Dan’s Pick       Colts

Dan’s Comment: – “I think the Broncos will win, but there’ll be less than a TD in it!”

Giants @ Lions (-4.5)

I don’t trust either of these teams. The Giants are a shell of themselves, the offence is a work in progress and Eli Manning might not be a serviceable quarterback anymore. The Lions had a golden chance to win their division last year, and blew it with their characteristic ill disciplined play. A team that is loaded with talent, they would be a prime candidate for a WARM revival, but Jim Caldwell doesn’t’ exactly inspire confidence. However, there is still a lot of talent so whilst I may regret going against the points, I’m going with the talent.

Gee’s Pick:      Lions
Dan’s Pick       Giants

Chargers @ Cardinals (-3.5)

I am not as down on the Cardinals as some appear to be. There defence seemed to hold up pretty well against the Bengals in preseason despite it’s losses and there some interesting receiver prospects lining up to follow Fitzgerald, but they still have Carson Palmer facing some serious defences (and pass rushes) just in their own division. However, I think the Chargers are going to be good again this year. A defence that is likely to improve towards league average from their 32nd ranking in defensive DVOA and an offence that is likely to stay good. I’m pretty confident of a Chargers win even before I get points

Gee’s Pick:      Chargers
Dan’s Pick       Chargers

Dan’s Comment: “Not a great season predicted for the Cardinals I’m afraid!”

So that’s our first week ready to go, let’s see how things pan out in the games.

Michael Sam signed to a Practice Squad

03 Wednesday Sep 2014

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I am really pleased to see that Michael Sam has been signed to the practice squad of the Dallas Cowboys. Although he didn’t jump out at me in the games I saw, it was hard to focus on his play on the standard broadcast view that I was limited to, and I thought that with the number of sacks and tackles he recorded, he was worth a place in the league somewhere and boy do the Cowboys need pass rushing options.

I don’t know if he’ll make it onto the field, but he’s earned more time to get there and I hope it works out for him.

NFL Preseason: My Review

01 Monday Sep 2014

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So as the new season approaches and the rosters settle down, let’s take a look at what I learnt this preseason. 

Overall I didn’t get to see every game for all four teams, but I did see each team at least twice, and I’ve even picked up a couple of extra teams due to how the schedule fell. There is no coaching tape for the preseason and this has only highlighted to me how much I am going to want to look at it during the season. I watch the condensed games as I only have so much time, and have had to dip into the broadcast several times to pick out plays or get better angles to identify lineman. It has been occasionally hard to pick out particular players on the lines unless something obviously good or bad has happened, and I’d like to take a much closer look at receiver and DB overages than I have been able to.

I will be briefly talking about headline figures from the excellent Football Outsider Almanac 2014, which provide advanced statistical analysis of the NFL and are well worth an investigation.

So in alphabetical order here are the four teams I’ve looked at:

 

Bengals

The Bengals went 11-5, and like all the teams I’ve looked at this was within one win of the Pythagorean win projection for 2013 that Football Outsiders provided. Their total for this season is 8.8 with a strong score for the 8-10 win range. 

I’ve enjoyed watching the team this season for the most part. I was interested to read about Andy Dalton’s offseason and the early signs to me are that his work with a throwing coach, his extra time with the receivers and the new offense is paying off. I thought he looked sharp and there were several nice long plays. I was also happy to see Mohamed Sanu step up and play well with Marvin Jones sidelined currently with a broken foot, I certainly think he’s capable of playing as the second receiver.

It quickly became apparent that Jeremy Hill was a good pick up for the run game and it was not a surprise that Green-Ellis got cut. Cedric Peerman also looked good, although I’m not sure how much time in the offense he will see. The rookie Russell Bodine slotted in straight away as the starter at centre, seeing more playing time than usual as they bedded him in. Also noticeable for his good play was the undrafted rookie Ryan Hewitt who made the team as an H-back and blocked well.

The defense has looked good, with possibly a few more blitzes but we’ll know for sure once the season starts rolling. I was also impressed with the improvement of Estonian Margus Hunt in his second year, who seems to have settled in to playing left end and it will interesting to see how he goes throughout the year.

Roll on the Ravens in week one.

 

Dolphins 

I was pleasantly surprised by the Dolphins, and not just by their uniforms, which are right up their with the Charger’s powder blues for the nicest in the NFL. They went 8-8 last season, but Football Outsiders has their win figure going back to 6.5 this year. I think this is likely to be to do with the teams around them, rather than their team, which I think is looking up.

The good news is that I like the design of their new offence and at time it looked pretty crisp. However, despite the improvement from the mess of last year, their line still seemed to not be giving Tannehill a clean pocket to work in. I also thought that Tannehill seemed to be playing better and going through his progressions, although as soon as I thought that he locked onto a receiver and threw an interception, without looking at the other side of the field where he had an open check down.

On defence they looked pretty stout and had a decent pass rush that hopefully will stand them in good stead. 

The problem I think will continue to be the way the front office runs the team. There were five players that really caught my eye and four of them were undrafted rookie free agents. Unfortunately, Kamal Johnson has gone on injured reserve and is done for the year, but running backs Orleans Darkwa and Damien Williams both made the team, as did defensive tackle Anthony Johnson. It is good that these players were picked up, but you would hope that the players they drafted would have caught the eye more.

Sadly, although fifth year receiver Damian Williams made the 53 man roster initially, he was later released for depth at other positions despite making some good plays, I wonder if he’ll get picked up somewhere else, but not so far.

My worry for this team is whether the plan that is shaping up in Miami will be given enough time to go somewhere, but I do see some potential.

The scouting report from my friend Dolphins Dan, offensive line looks better but Tannehill needs to work on his long ball connection with Wallace to get more comfortable. I wouldn’t disagree.

 

Rams 

There can only be one place to start my summary of the Rams, and that is with sympathy for Sam Bradford, who was looking pretty solid in the time I got to see him play before he was lost for the year. Losing your starting quarterback for the year is pretty much the worse outcome for your preseason whatever else is happening.

Last year the Rams went 7-9, but although losing Bradford is a blow, they were missing him for nine games last year so all may not be lost. Certainly on defence they look excellent in the front seven. My favourite play of the preseason was Robert Quinn going round Joe Thomas of the Browns for a sack and barely being touched, it was pro-bowler on pro-bowler crime that’s well worth checking out if you have NFL Gamepass.

On offense I was impressed by rookie running back Trey Watts, but was worried by left tackle Jake Long who I saw beaten twice before he gave up the play where Bradford got hurt. If Shaun Hill is to succeed as the starter he’ll need not to be worried about his blindside.

Michael Sam did not make the roster and of this moment hasn’t been signed to a practice squad having cleared waivers. He got sacks and tackles, but didn’t jump off the screen whilst I was watching, although I did enjoy him borrowing Manziel’s money celebration having sacked him. He couldn’t however, match up to the undrafted rookie Ethan Westbrook who could play more spots along the line and who made the team.

The Rams are in probably the toughest division in the league and so I fear it could be a long season for them.

 

Vikings 

The Vikings went 5-10-1 last year and have Pythagorean win total of 7.4, although their likelihood of being in 5-7 wins and 8-10 wins were within 1 percentage point.

As you would expect from Mike Zimmer, the defense looked pretty stout and whilst no one player jumped out at me, I think they’ll do pretty well.

I loved first time head coach Zimmer hiring Norv Turner to run the offense, as well as being someone to lean on who has also been a head coach. The hire also seems to be working out for that side of the ball with both Matt Cassell and Teddy Bridgewater looking good running the new offense. I was also impressed with receiver Cordelle Patterson and the play of full back Jerome Felton and I’m really looking forward to seeing Adrian Peterson cut loose with some more creative play calling.

I think that in a division with Aaron Rodgers, a resurgent Bears team and a talented Lions team that may finally have a coach who will get everything out of that talent, the Vikings might not have the record to match it, but I think Zimmer is going to make progress with this team compared to last year.

 

Bonus Teams 

I got to see the Chiefs and the Cardinals twice this season and a couple of things jumped out at me even though I wasn’t focussing on them.

Keep an eye out for De’Anthony Thomas on the Chiefs, I saw him run back a punt against the Bengals and he is seriously quick. He is seeing time at running back and receiver for the Chiefs and has changed his number from 1 to 13. On defence, I was reminded again of how good Dontari Poe is, he gets excellent penetration and I think he’s going to have a great season.

For the Cardinals, I was really impressed by their defence. They caused the Bengals first team offense real problems for the first four drives and I think they will do well. I was also impressed by Jaron Brown at receiver, although Larry Fitzgerald also looked like he has plenty left in the tank, even if it is unlikely he can live up to his enormous contract.

 

So there you have it, I have thoroughly enjoyed the preseason, but now the real fun begins. On to Week 1!

NFL Preseason: The Quaterback Question

28 Thursday Aug 2014

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Right now I feel like a second string corner trying to make the roster on special teams play and limited snaps in the defence. Whilst I’m on top of things in terms of following news, I have not watched as many games as I would have like to and we’re already getting into the first wave of cuts, the third week dress rehearsal games are over, but never the less I shall make the most of the reps that have been given to me. Torturous metaphor now over…

I’m writing about a big focus in football, although one that I’m not as obsessed with as most, namely quarterbacks. Everybody tends to agree that the quarterback is the most important player on a football team, and I am no different. But people do seem to give too much praise to a quarterback when the team wins and too much blame when the team loses. There’s no guaranteed way to find a quarterback, if we look at three of the marquee QBs in the league, Peyton Manning was the archetypal first pick of the draft, Drew Brees was picked at the start of the second round (overall 32), and famously Tom Brady was picked in the sixth round as the 199th player selected. It is easier to pick one early, but you don’t have to and last years Super Bowl winner was found in the third round. The trick is not just to pick the right player, but to develop them as well because apart from the tangibles of arm strength and size, a quarterback needs the study habits, familiarity with the offence, and the ability to find a way to be successful in the NFL. He has to anticipate what the defence the is doing, throw the ball through and incredibly tight window to a receiver who is not there yet and if he is just a beat slow, the ball gets intercepted and possible returned for points.

This preseason we’ve seen a couple of different approaches by teams trying to solve their quarterback conundrums. The Cleveland Browns took the step of picking the incredibly popular college star Johnny Manziel and announced that there was camp competition with their existing player Brian Hoyer. The Jaguars also picked a first round quarterback in Blake Bortles and immediately announced that he was going to sit behind veteran Chad Henne for the year.

I’m not one for absolutism, and whilst I agree with the idea that there is so much to learn that it is a good idea for a rookie QB to sit for a while, I’m not going to state that they should sit for a preset amount of time. When they’re ready they are ready, but the different approaches above highlight what can go wrong if a team doesn’t handle its quarterback situation well.

I don’t follow college football as there is only so much time in the world, I don’t really get the conference system, and there’s enough ethical questions around paying NFL players to endanger their long term health, without being fanatical about a feeder league that makes it a point of pride that their players aren’t paid. But even I had heard about some of Manziel antics in college, both on the field and off it. I dread to think how many words have been written about his offseason and I don’t want to go into it again in great detail, but the thing that’s interesting to me is this.

I don’t know how I would have reacted to being given a four year, 8.25 million dollar contract with roughly 7.9 million dollars guaranteed when I was twenty-one, but I suspect there might have had some bumps. The problem is, when you’re a key part of business that is worth somewhere between five hundred million and billion dollars, if not more, you don’t have a lot of wiggle room for poor results and bad decisions. The first few months of Manziel’s NFL career has not been a success, and in having a camp competition with no clear winner, but with Hoyer being getting the starter job through being the least bad option, the team do not have a clear leader of the team.

Now there’s nothing to say that being sat for the year would have prevented Manziel from giving Washington’s sideline the finger in the Browns’ second preseason game, but it might have helped. The Browns are in a mess and I think that between management and coaching, they have contributed to their own problems.

In Jacksonville however, we have the opposite problem as the good play of the rookie Bortles has some already suggesting he should be starting. However, Henne has also being playing well and the idea of throwing a rookie quarterback out into an NFL season behind a what is thought to be a shaky line seems like short term thinking. A good quarterback needs time to develop if they’re to have the long career that a team is hoping for when they invest a first round pick on a player. The problem is that the situation is still more complicated than that.

I’ve talked before about the importance of depth in the NFL, and the quarterback position is hardest nut to crack for this. You don’t have to have a top five quarterback to win a Super Bowl, but you do need a certain level of competency and there are not enough of this calibre of players for thirty two teams. That should give you an idea of how hard it is to play the position at the NFL level, but also shows why getting your quarterback situation set is so important, as it is unlikely that you will have a quality backup just waiting behind your starter ready to go.

So, you have to balance the risk of exposure to injury and the needs of the coach to win, against the development of your young quarterback, but you can do all of that and still not guarantee your player will turn out how you hope. We have just lost the Rams’ quarterback Sam Bradford to a season ending injury as he re-tore the ACL in his left knee. This could well be the end of Bradford’s tenure in St Louis as his cap figure for next year is too big given that he hasn’t been able to stay on the field. I feel so sorry for him as he clearly has a lot of talent and potential, but you can’t realise that if you can’t stay on the field.

So we’ve establishing that the quarterback position is complicated, but we haven’t got to a commonality with evaluating any player, which is scheme fit. One team’s star can be another player’s dud. I wrote earlier in my things to watch that I was interested to see how Robert Griffin was going to do playing for Jay Gruden, who at times seemed to ask Andy Dalton to do too much to win games last year with the Bengals. But although RG3 has the strong arm, he has not played as pocket passer before and the skills are different than being the dynamic dual threat that he was in his rookie year. Having been derailed by injury last year, we shall see how he fairs over the coming year.

So having distracted you with quarterbacks, and established that there is no simple answer in how to get one, I’m going back to games. Coming up next, a review of my preseason teams, cuts day is round the corner, we’re a week away from the season starting, and I for one can’t wait.

NFL Preseason Week 1 – What I Learnt

17 Sunday Aug 2014

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There’s an old saying that failure to plan is planning to fail. Well in my case, it wasn’t so much bad planning as life being in the way of the blog as I’ve been on holiday during the first week of preseason so I’ve only seen one game so far, firstly here’s what I’ve learnt so far about writing a blog on the NFL and watching games:

  1. I have a sheet of the things I want to look at for each team that I used for my previous article, and whilst watching games I realised that as well as having a list of players, I need their numbers so I can spot them quickly whether they get mentioned in commentary or not. So before I even start my remedial game study I need to get my watch sheet up to date.
  2. Have your notebook with you! I have watched the Hall of Fame game and I will go through a few things from that shortly, but having got myself a notebook for the season, it’s a good idea to have it with you.
  3. Have a second device, I tend to watch Gamepass on my tablet but following on from the need to having my cheat sheet ready, it’s also handy to have the team rosters handy, particularly in preseason where the younger players you might not have heard of are getting their chance.

So having revealed my incompetence, here’s what I took away from the New York Giants v Buffalo Bills in the Hall of Fame Game.

I liked the balance of the Giants offense, which given a feature of last year’s seemed to be a bad back foot throw from Eli Manning, can only be an improvement. I didn’t get to see too much of Eli but his backup, Ryan Nassib did seem to have some poise despite having the up and down performance of a backup. The real stars that popped out to me were in the running game with Rashad Jennings running solidly and the rookie Andre Williams really catching the eye with his pace and power.

For the Bills I’m worried already, Sammy Watkins failed to catch my eye or the ball. More worrying, was first EJ Manuel and then Jeff Tuel both seemed be fixing on their first receiver and Manuel in particular was so obvious where he was going that his balls kept getting batted down at the line.

I am now going to go grab my notebook and start working my way through my backlog of games for the Bengals, Dolphins, Vikings, and Rams. Plus if I get a chance, I might check out the Cardinals rookie QB Logan Thomas who is already getting buzz as being the best of the new quaterbacks.

 

Sixty-six things to Watch this Season

03 Sunday Aug 2014

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Now that training camps are open and we start games tonight, I’m really beginning to get a buzz about the new season. One of my targets for this season is to watch a regular season game of every NFL team, and as I was thinking about this I started to put together a list of players and things I am interested in. To this end, I present my sixty-six things to watch in the NFL this season.

Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals has the best record of a team not to make the playoffs last season, and I remember the talk of their good defence and whether you could trust Carson Palmer at QB. However, the two players I’m interested in seeing this season is Larry Fitzgerald and Patrick Peterson. I am aware of the quality of Fitzgerald, but have never really watched him in depth so I want to see what separates him from other receivers. Peterson is many peoples’ second best corner behind Richard Sherman, a three time Pro Bowler in his first three seasons, I want to see how he plays as I don’t even know if he is a man or zone corner.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons crashed from their first playoff win to a 4-12 record last season. The draft buzz was that they were going to move up to take a pass rusher, but they stayed put and picked up a much needed tackle. I think this was a good decision, as part of the reason that the Falcons had such problems last year is the thinness of their roster that was caused by them trading picks to move up and target specific players. It will be interesting to see how their first round tackle Jake Mathews plays and if he helps their line as they try to bounce back from last year. I’m also interested to see how effectively they can rush the passer and what happens on the defensive side of the ball.

Baltimore Ravens

So now I’m writing about the enemy. The Ravens took a step back after their Super Bowl win of the previous year. This is perhaps not surprising given the player turn over during the off season, but they will be hoping for better things this year. I shall be interested to see if they can finally develop a stable offensive line that cab help improve their offense, and what makes Torrey Smith such a favourite target of Flacco. With their Pro Bowler Terell Suggs calling for Flacco to be more vocal in his leadership, I shall be taking a close look at his own play.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills had another disappointing season in 2013 and went for broke in the draft by trading up for Sammy Watkins. I shall be interested to see how quickly he can have an impact given that it often takes time for a receiver to develop in the NFL. On the defensive side of the ball, I shall be taking a look at Mario Williams and just how effective his is as a pass rusher.

Carolina Panthers

Having won their division last year, you would think that the outlook for this season would be positive. However, having lost their left tackle to retirement on an already suspect line, and with an underpowered receiving core before the loss of Steve Smith, it looks like Cam Newton might be in for a touch season so that will be my first thing to watch. On the other side of the ball, Luke Kuechly in two seasons has already established himself as an All-Pro tackling machine that should definitely be watched.

Chicago Bears

Last year, under a new coach, there was a different style of Bears team. Usually a limited offense ably supported by brilliant defense, we had a role reversal last year. However, with the backup QB moving on after an excellent season, all eyes will be on whether Jay Cutler can thrive for an entire season and continue the turn around on offense. On defense, the Bears have let Julius Peppers go and I will be fascinated to see how they rebuild the defensive line and get pressure on the quarterback.

Cincinnati Bengals

I could write an entire post on the Bengals season, but I shall limit myself to three players on the playoff win or bust Bengals. I shall start with AJ Green, a top ten talent according to the players of the NFL, who is pushing himself to do better in the playoffs. On defence, one of my favourite sights in the NFL just happens to play for the Bengals, Geno Atkin gets so much pressure as a tackle and everyone should take a look. Also, wherever the ball goes, you’ll find Vontaze Burfict there or not far behind, always fun to watch.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns were one of the better 4-12 teams that you could see last year, and took a game off the Bengals. Sadly, as is often the case with the Browns, I’m not sure that this year looks to build on last year’s foundations. There have been changes in coaches, management, and their star receiver is done for the year with a suspension (appeal pending). Add to that, they have drafted the infamous Johnny Manziel, whose off season is already problematic, and he is sat behind Brian Hoyer, there seems to be a lot to worry about. The defense was solid, but where their season will go depends on what happens with their two QBs. One thing that will help them is their seven time Pro Bowl left tackle Joe Thomas, who is definitely worth a look.

Dallas Cowboys

The self-styled America’s team, full of flash and bombast in the way they’re run, look to be in for an interesting season. They have already lost their best defensive player to injury having lost their leading pass rusher in free agency. I see plenty of scoring for them next year on both sides of the ball. On offense I shall be looking at Dez Bryant to see what make him so good. On defense, Barry Church led the team in tackles, splitting some time at Linebacker in the nickel defense, so it will be interesting to see how he is used this year and if those numbers were inflated by team needs last system.

Denver Broncos

Sometimes it is important not to over think things and so the first thing I shall be looking at with last year’s Super Bowl loser is Peyton Manning for the simple fact that when he has his team running, it is a joy to watch. I’m also interested to see how Von Miller will play this season and to take a proper look at his skills.

Detroit Lions

The Lions missed out on the playoffs again last season and seemed to lack discipline as they failed to make the most of a down year from the Packers. On offense they have one of the great receivers in Calvin Johnson, so I want to look how he deals with coverage always shading to him. On defense, the Lions are built around their line so I want to take a look at them with Ndamukong Suh playing for a contract, Nick Fairley and Ezekiel Ansah, their line will probably define their season in how it plays.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers demonstrated just how good Aaron Rodgers is with their struggles whilst he was recovering from a broken collar bone, but sill managed to win their division. He is another of those QBs that is worth watching whenever you get the chance, and with the talk of them wanting to run seventy-five plays a game, sounds like a win to me. On defence, Clay Mathews and AJ Hawk are the two linebackers that make their 3-4 defense work and I shall be trying to work out what makes them tick.

Houston Texans

I took no pleasure in the Texans 2-14 season last year, despite them being the architects of the two previous Bengals playoff losses. They had all sorts of problems at the quarterback spot, which doesn’t seem to have a long term answer, but at least Andre Johnson has come back to camp and is always worth watching. On defense, JJ Watt is one of the most electrifying players in the game, and in what I think was the right draft pick, is joined by Jadeveon Clowney, who I will be fascinated to see after all the hype about his college career.

Indianapolis Colts

I haven’t seen that much of the Colts in the last couple of seasons, so what I know of them is mostly by reputation. My remedial work on this is that with all the noise, I have to take a look at their star QB Andrew Luck, and his leading receiver TY Hilton. Of course, I’ll be interested to see what else jumps out at me, which is part of the fun of trying to watch each team and I’m sure I’ll spot something on defence.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs bounced back under a rejuvenated Andy Reid to an 11-5 record and were one of two wild cards from the AFC West. Alex Smith came into his own later in the year when he had to, but the Chiefs are one of the few teams that still rely on a work horse back. Jamaal Charles excelled in the running game and had over six hundred yards in recieving. On defence, they had two double digit pass rushers (Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, although it was the huge nose tackle Dontari Poe who impressed me) so I’ll be interested to look at their front seven again and how they get pressure on the quarterback.

Miami Dolphins

We’re now getting in a run of two teams that are part of my pre-season focus. I’ve already written about the troubles that have befallen the Dolphins line and it will be interesting to see if they can hold up enough for the Dolphins to get a read on whether Ryan Tannehill is their QB for the long term. The Dolphins leading pass rusher was Olivier Vernon, and I shall be interested to take a look at him and how their line plays.

Minnesota Vikings

I really want Mike Zimmer to do well, and I’m pretty confident as he is a good coach and already there is talk of Adrian Peterson being excited by the scheme of new OC Norv Turner. Peterson was already an amazing player in a conservative offense so I’m excited to see how he will be utilised this season. On defense, through departure and retirement the famously strong line including the two Williams and Jared Allen has gone, so I will be fascinated to see how they rebuild this group, particularly given the strength and depth of defensive line that Zimmer help build in Cincinnati.

New England Patriots

When a team has the most successful coach and quarterback combination every, you watch the quarterback. Even with talk of his skills fading and a receiving core that was incredibly young as the roster fell apart round him, Brady managed to lead the team to a 12-4 record and another division title, watch him whilst you can. One of the most interesting off season signings to me was the Patriots losing Aqib Talib and immediately going out and signing Darrelle Revis. There is no way that Bill Belichick is going to make the mistake that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers did in playing Revis in a zone system, I for one am looking forward to the return of Revis Island to the NFL.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints went 11-5 last season, proving that coaching matters when they got Sean Payton back from his suspension. I was impressed with the turn around on defensive under Rob Ryan, who I have never been truly convinced by before. However, for me this is a team that you watch for Drew Brees running Payton’s offense and so that’s where my focus will be. In particular, I shall be watching Marques Colston after Brady Quinn in the middle of a great interview on the Ros Tucker podcast (episode here), said that he ran routes like a quarterback would.

New York Giants

The Giants had a bad season last year and were still 7-9, but Eli Manning had a horrible year. He’s had his ankles scoped and is running a new offense this year, and I shall be fascinated to see if he can turn it around last season as the knives are already being sharpened for him, despite the two Super Bowl rings. The defense was not great last year, but one player who stands out to me is Antrel Rolle who led the team in tackles from the safety spot, had two sacks and six interceptions. I don’t know if this is from circumstance, but as three time Pro Bowler, including last season, I shall be interested to how he plays this season.

New York Jets

Some teams always seem to be in the news, and with Rex Ryan as their coach the Jets are never far away from the headlines. I’m not sure if all the extra attention is beneficial or not, and the Jets haven’t had a good offense in years, but say what you want about Ryan, he know defense. I am half convinced that given eleven people off the street, Ryan could turn them into a unit that could keep you in the game so sit back and enjoy him at work. On offense, the big question is whether there young quarterback Geno Smith can establish himself as a quality starter in the NFL, and I wonder how long a leash he will have with Michael Vick sitting behind him.

Oakland Raiders

It is hard to see a once proud franchise languish in mediocrity for so long, and last season was another one to forget. But after years of mismanagement, part of last year’s 4-12 was getting a lot of bad contracts of the books and so things might begin to turn round if the rebuild project starts bearing fruit. They hope that part of this is their first round draft pick Khalil Mack, talked about as possibly the best player in the draft, let’s hope that he can be a piece they can build around on defense. Among many issues last season was that of quarterback, and whilst the signing of Matt Schaub, coming of a disasterous season, will not send hopes soaring, he might provide veteran leadership and stability at the position with Dereck Carr waiting in the wings to see if he can move past the fall out of his brother’s troubled career.

Philadelphia Eagles

The big question last season for the Eagles was whether Chip Kelly’s college offence was going to work in the NFL, and with a division title and excellent play the answer was a resounding yes. I was impressed last season, and even more so after hearing him interviewed recently so I am all in on Chip Kelly (listen here for the interview). There have been some interesting moves on offence this off season, but I’m looking forward to seeing how it runs. The question for the Eagles on defense last year was how it would hold up as they switched to a 3-4 defense from a 4-3, and if they had the players to make it work. Their play definitely improved over the year and I shall be interested to see how this progresses and how their two inside linebackers play.

Pittsburgh Steelers

One of the down sides of living in the UK as an NFL fan is that you don’t have the office chats about your sport. The upside of this is that I don’t have to deal with Steeler fans and their six championships. Thanks to not having to live the local rivalry, I can respect coach Tomlin and what he has done with the team. I’m not sure they have dealt with the salary cap well over the last few years, which has led to an ageing team that only went 8-8 last year. On a team that has often had a patchy offensive line, Maurkice Pouncey went to three Pro Bowls in his first three years. Sadly, last year he tore his ACL and MCL in week one, but I should get plenty of chances to see how he does this year. The problem on defense last year seemed to be age catching up with key players, but Dick LeBeau is an NFL institution and one for my favourite coaches. I shall be interested to see how he integrates the speedy new inside linebacker Ryan Shazier, and if he will be the next in the production line of great Steelers linebackers.

You have no idea how painful it was to write that…

Saint Louis Rams

The Rams play in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL, and still went 7-9 last season. But if they want to do something against the Seahawks, 49ers, and Cardinals (I told you it was a tough division) then they need stellar quarterback play out of Sam Bradford. This could be a crucial year for him in deciding his future, he has benefitted like few others from the huge contracts form the old CBA, and it will be interesting to see if he can finally establish himself or if the Rams will need to look elsewhere for the future. On defense the Rams already had an impressive front seven, even before they drafted Aaron Donald. I shall look forward to getting a proper look at them and in particular Robert Quinn, who had nineteen sacks last season.

San Diego Chargers

The other team to get a wildcard from the AFC West, the Chargers were renewed under new coach Mike McCoy. On offense Phillip Rivers had a comeback season and with a long ball like his, it’s always fun to watch him play when things are going well. This is not a team that I know particularly well, but that is the point of this list, and having seen that Eric Weddle led the team in tackles and went to the Pro Bowl last season, I look forward to seeing what he can do.

San Francisco 49ers

They are part of one of the best rivalries in the NFL with the Seahawks and have gone to the divisional championship game or the Super Bowl in the last three seasons. They have built their offense round the offensive line and are generally thought to have one of the best in the game, so I am looking forward to taking a closer look at them, particularly with access to coaching tape to see them from the end zone view. They also have one of my favourite players on defense in Justin Smith, always worth a watch.

Seattle Seahawks

Last years Super Bowl champs will be strong contenders again, built as they are on the depth of their roster and a brilliant defense. They have given new contracts to Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas, consolidating the infamous Legion of Boom. They pretty much play a three deep zone all the time, but are so good that it doesn’t matter that the offense know what is coming as they can’t exploit. Sherman is a great corner, but it is the range of Thomas that allows them to do this and the all twenty-two tape should be fascinating. On offense, Russel Wilson has paved the way for the shorter quarterback, and he’s a lot more than the game manager that some people paint him as so take a look for yourself.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I have a feeling that Tampa Bay will be a lot better this year than their 4-12 record last year. Lovie Smith will be a big upgrade as coach and in Josh McCown, they will have some stability at quarterback whilst they search for a long term solution. He played excellently last season, despite a career as a backup, and I think he will do well this season. The Bucs had one Pro Bowler last year in linebacker Lavonte David, so I’ll be interested to see how he plays, and hopefully things will turn round for the franchise.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans went 7-9 last year, but had instability at quarterback and an offense that never quite took off, whilst a solid defence kept them in games. The honest thing is that I really don’t have a handle on this team and they have a new coach this season. The first thing I want to look for, is what they look like as a team and what jumps out at me. I’m not afraid to say I don’t know about things! On defense I am interested in Jurell Casey as he is a young player who led his team in sacks last season, and I want to see if it was him or the team that got these sacks.

Washington Redskins

Washington have a new head coach in Jay Gruden, who will be looking to turn round the franchise after their 3-13 season. I felt that he often put too much emphasis on Dalton to win with his arm for the Bengals, but with RG3 he has a quarterback that I think has the arm to run his offense. I’ll be interested to see how this partnership works this season. Brian Orakpo is playing out this season on a franchise tag, and it will be interesting to see what he does with a big contract on the horizon.

 

And that’s it, by no means and exhaustive list, but I feel like a good one to start with so roll on the new season.