Colts @ Bills (-3.5)

The Buffalo Bills still stand an outside chance of squeezing into the playoffs, but they need to keep winning and the injury to Tyrod Taylor’s knee seems to make it likely that Nathan Peterman will get a second start this week. I’m not sure it’s possible for Peterman to have a worse game than he did against the Chargers in week eleven but if he plays it throws real doubt on the Bills ability to win. The Indianapolis Colts come into Buffalo having lost heavily against the Jaguars and don’t have a win since week nine. Until last week they had kept their games close but even though it feels like I should pick the Colts to cover this, I can’t quite make myself do it. I could regret this but the Bills have been good at home and I just don’t trust the Colts.

Gee’s Pick:          Bills
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Bears @ Bengals (-6.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals are coming off a very physical loss to the Steelers on Monday and thanks to injury are thin at both safety and corner on defence as well as at running back. They welcome a Chicago Bears team who may only be 3-9 but who have kept the majority of their games close. The Bengals have seemed to have found some more consistency in recent weeks but whilst I can see them winning this game, I can’t pick them to cover given the injuries and how tough the Bears defence has been playing.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

Packers @ Browns (+3.5)

The Cleveland Browns are searching for a win and welcome a Green Bay Packers who will be desperate to keep themselves in with a theoretical shot at the playoffs as Aaron Rodgers recovers from his broken collar bone. This could be the week that the Browns get a win, but the Packers have something to play for and I’m just not sure what will happen. However, with the Browns getting this number of points I’m going to reluctantly pick them to keep the game within four points.

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Cowboys @ Giants (+4.5)

The New York Giants might get a lift in the locker room from the firing of a head coach that clearly was not in full control of the locker room, but this doesn’t address the weakness of the roster. They welcome a Dallas Cowboys team who got their offence working a bit better last week and who look to be getting Sean Lee back on defence this week. This is a lot of points to get at home, but it is not enough to tempt me even if the Giants do have a little uptake in performance.

Gee’s Pick:          Cowboys
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

Lions @ Buccaneers (+3.5)

Apart from only having a 4-8 record, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been inconsistent on offence and struggled on defence. They welcome a limping Detroit Lions team who have been inconsistent as well despite being in the top half of the league by overall DVOA. It is hard to have much faith in either team and so I’m going to grab the points for the home underdog given Matthew Stafford’s hand injury.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Raiders @ Chiefs (-3.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs could get back to winning ways, but their defence has really struggled for a while now and they only have one win in seven games. The Oakland Raiders do not exactly inspire confidence either, particularly with a defence that is ranked last in the league by DVOA. Although Arrowhead Stadium is a famously loud place to play, on their recent form I just can’t pick the Chiefs to win by four.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Vikings @ Panthers (+2.5)

This should be an interesting game, but I have a lot more faith in the Minnesota Vikings’ ability to move the ball on the tough Carolina Panthers defence than vice versa. This could be one tough road game too many for the Vikings, but even with the Panthers getting points at home, it’s not quite enough to sway me from backing what could well be the best team in the league, even if the DVOA rankings do only have the Vikings listed as sixth.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

49ers @ Texans (-2.5)

The San Francisco 49ers are coming off a narrow win over the Bears in Jimmy Guroppolo’s first start and look to have found their franchise quarterback. However, as good as he looked, he didn’t get into the end zone against the Bears and this week they are on the road again facing the wounded Houston Texans team. The Texans have struggled ever since Deshaun Watson went down, and have lost two straight coming into this game. On paper the Texans should have enough to beat the 49ers, and whilst I do wonder what lift Guroppolo will give the 49ers it is just too early for me to back them in this game.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Jets @ Broncos (+0.5)

The Denver Broncos have now lost eight straight games and with the issues at quarterback it is hard to see things improving drastically until the offseason. This week they face a scrappy New York Jets team who are very evenly ranked across all three phases of the game by DVOA. Even though only one of their five wins has come on the road, it is hard to look past the Jets given that the Broncos offence ranks dead last by DVOA and whilst the Broncos obviously could win, I can’t pick that to happen.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Titans @ Cardinals (+2.5)

The Arizona Cardinals have stayed competitive despite the injuries they have suffered on offence, but with Adrian Peterson still injured and looking to be out for this game it is hard to see things improving for them. They welcome a Tennessee Titans team that have ground out an 8-4 record despite being ranked twentieth overall by DVOA. I don’t think this game will set many pulses raising outside of the Cardinals and Titans’ fan bases, but I expect the Titans to keep the momentum they have gathered rolling.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Titans

Washington @ Chargers (-6.5)

The line of this game does give me pause, but the LA Chargers are on a three game win streak and really seem to have found their formula now. They welcome a very injured Washington team who are a tough out but there is only so much Kirk Cousins can do behind their current offensive line. The lack of home field advantage the Chargers have since their move to LA does concern me, but their excellent pass rush will likely be terrifying to face for Washington. I do see the Chargers winning but I’m just not convinced they will win by seven yet in the end that is what I am nervously going to pick.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Eagles @ Rams (-2.5)

This is another huge game as the LA Rams welcome the Philadelphia Eagles. The LA Rams come into this game on a two game winning streak and will be hoping to stop the Eagles bouncing back from their loss to the Seahawks last week. In a game that pits the top two teams in the league by DVOA against each other I am going to grab the points and enjoy what should be a cracking game.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Seahawks @ Jaguars (-2.5)

The Seattle Seahawks got an excellent win last week, but whilst their defence proved it can hold up despite the injuries to Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor and should be fine against the Jaguars one dimensional offence, their offence could really struggle the Jacksonville Jaguars’ second ranked by DVOA defence. In particular the scary Jaguars pass rush could have a field day against the Seahawks suspect offensive line. I’m not saying the Seahawks can’t win, particularly after last week, but on the road I’m not sure I can pick it to happen.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Ravens @ Steelers (-5.5)

I am sure the Pittsburgh Steelers come into this game with Ryan Shazier very much on their minds, and there will be players paying tribute to the injured linebacker with their cleats in this game. The Baltimore Ravens lead the league in defence and special teams by DVOA and are grinding their way through the season. The play of Ben Roethlisberger is noticeably better at home than it is on the road, and having beaten the Ravens on the road by seventeen, I think the Steelers could cover this line. They showed the mental toughness to come back and win last week after being down 17-0 in the second quarter, but after such a physical game I do wonder if there will be a let-down this week, yet in the end I’m going to back the Steelers to cover.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers

Patriots @ Dolphins (+11.5)

The Miami Dolphins have often played the New England Patriots tough at home, but give the way their season has gone and their recent performances, I just can’t pick them to do it again. I’m sure Dan will be very happy for me to be proved wrong, but in front of the nation I think the Patriots will be too focussed to let the Dolphins have a sniff in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Vikings @ Flacons (-2.5)

The Atlanta Falcons have really come on in recent weeks and have almost quietly got themselves to a 7-4 record. Meanwhile the Minnesota Vikings have been playing really well all season and this should be a great game. I’m going to grab the points in a game I can see the Vikings winning despite being on the road but it is not exactly hard to see the Falcons winning.

Gee’s Pick:          Vikings
Dan’s Pick:          Vikings

Patriots @ Bills (+8.5)

This is a tricky game to pick as the New England Patriots keep covering huge lines but the Buffalo Bills got their season back on track last week as they ground out a win against the Chiefs. However the Chiefs have been stuttering for weeks now, whilst the Patriots have rounded into form on defence and Tom Brady has been carrying them all season. It’s not that the Bills stand no chance of covering this line but I’m not going to pick it as the most likely result.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Patriots

49ers @ Bears (-3.5)

The Chicago Bears lost heavily to the Eagles last week and only have two more wins than the 49ers. The San Francisco 49ers are starting Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback for the first time and a lot of people are excited about this given how he looked in four plays last week. I’m not sure if this is going to launch a huge turnaround given the quantity of injuries the 49ers have suffered, but I don’t trust the Bears to win by four or more so I’m backing the 49ers to at least keep it close.

Gee’s Pick:          49ers
Dan’s Pick:          Bears

Broncos @ Dolphins (-0.5)

This is a horrible game to pick as neither the Miami Dolphins nor the Denver Broncos inspire confidence. Both teams have problems at quarterback and the Dolphins are stuck at the bottom of the league according to overall DVOA. I have more faith in Adam Gase as a head coach than Vance Joseph at the moment and with the Dolphins playing at home I am going to pick them but you would avoid picking this game if you could.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Lions @ Ravens (-2.5)

The Baltimore Ravens have got themselves to 6-5 thanks to a defence and special teams unit that both lead the league in DVOA and have overcome an anaemic offence. This week they welcome a Detroit Lions team that play tough but have struggled to win consistently. This is one of those games where I find it hard to have a firm opinion on what will happen, but I know what I am getting from the Ravens’ number one by DVOA units and so despite the poor offence, I’m backing the Ravens to grind it out in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Ravens
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Buccaneers @ Packers (-2.5)

The Green Bay Packers have been struggling with Brett Hundley as their quarterback, which is understandable but his up and down play makes them a hard team to predict. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have not looked like the team many were expecting coming into the season and I’m not sure Jameis Winston being cleared to play clarifies the situation any. I have very little faith in either team so I am going to grab the points but I don’t feel good about it.

Gee’s Pick:          Buccaneers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Texans @ Titans (-6.5)

The Houston Texans have managed a win since rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson went down for the season with his knee injury, but this combined with losing JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus from the defence of the Texans ha really hampered them. The Tennessee Titans might not have caught the eye with their play, but they are joint top of the AFC South. I backed the Titans last week and they only just covered against the Colts so this line worries me but in the end I’m going to back the healthier team who still have something to play for.

Gee’s Pick:          Titans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Colts @ Jaguars (-9.5)

So head coach Doug Marone came out last week and said he got greedy at the end of the game that saw the Jacksonville Jaguars lose to the Cardinals. This week they welcome the Indianapolis Colts who are really struggling and on the road I can’t see them beating the Jaguars. My concern though is whether the Jaguars can cover this big a line but having beaten the Colts 27-0 in Indianapolis, I’m going to back them to win big in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Colts

Chiefs @ Jets (+3.5)

Since starting the season 5-0 the Kansas City Chiefs have really struggled and having lost to the Bills last week they travel to New York to face the Jets. The Jets have struggled in the last five games, only winning one of them so it is hard to know what will happen in this game. I am really tempted by getting the points at home and given these teams respective form that is what I am going to pick but who knows what will actually happen in the game.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Browns @ Chargers (-13.5)

It seems strange for the LA Chargers to be getting this many points, particularly given that they don’t have much of a home advantage, but the Cleveland Browns are winless for a reason and haven’t even kept a game to a single digit loss since week seven. Perhaps the addition of Josh Gordon will give them a spark on offence, but the Chargers have played well in the last couple of weeks and with the extra rest coming of their Thanksgiving victory over the Cowboys I’m backing them to win. Can they cover this line? In a case of the Browns being bad vs my rule on double digit spreads I’m falling on side of not trusting the Browns. I could regret this.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Browns

Giants @ Raiders (-6.5)

I see very little in the Oakland Raiders that excites me, particularly given the injury to Amari Cooper which when combined with the suspension of Michael Crabtree means that Derek Carr has lost both his starting receivers. However, with the New York Giants benching Eli Manning for Geno Smith, I don’t exactly have a lot of faith in the Giants either. In the end I am going to back the Raiders going against a team flying across the country who have just sat their two time Super Bowl winning quarterback. Even if Eli Manning has not been playing well, it doesn’t feel like the situation was handled well and I can’t trust the Giants after this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Raiders

Rams @ Cardinals (+6.5)

Who would have thought before the season that the LA Rams would be giving six and a half points to any team on the road, but they have been truly transformed and with their win against the Saints last week the Rams got back to winning ways. I expect them to have too much for the Arizona Cardinals who are down to their third string quarterback but have been competitive thanks to a top ten defence by DVOA, yet I can’t see them keeping up with the Rams.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Panthers @ Saints (-3.5)

The New Orleans Saints couldn’t win on the road last week without two corners and pass rusher Alex Okafor lost for the season. However, this week they are at home facing a Carolina Panthers team who have been very up and down on offence but whose defence has played really well. This should be one of the more interesting games of the season, but in the end I think the Saints will run out winners thanks to their balance on offence and defence.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Eagles @ Seahawks (+5.5)

I’m not sure I remember a time when the Seattle Seahawks were getting this many points at home, but they face an uphill struggle going against the Philadelphia Eagles without so many members of the Legion of Boon. Not only are Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor gone for the season, but the Seattle offensive line is facing a fearsome pass rush and whilst Russell Wilson is a magician, there are limits to what he can do. I expect this to be a fascinating game, and may well be closer on the field than the scoreboard suggests, but I expect the Eagles good form to continue.

Gee’s Pick:          Eagles
Dan’s Pick:          Eagles

Steelers @ Bengals (+6.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals are coming off two straight wins and really have to win this game if they are to maintain their slim hopes of the playoffs. The problem is that whilst the Pittsburgh Steelers have played down to the level of their opposition multiple times, they are still 9-2 and I expect them to win this one. That said, getting this many points at home in a game that is often close I am going to back to the Bengals to cover and hope for a win. I do expect to be disappointed come Tuesday morning though.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Steelers