A strange week all round, but here are our week ten picks.

Gee:      Week 9   8-5                       Overall   61-72
Dan:       Week 9   7-6                       Overall   56-77

Falcons @ Eagles (-0.5)

The Eagles started strongly, but they have fallen back in recent weeks and face a tough test in this game as the Falcons come to Philadelphia with their league leading offence. The Eagles stand atop of the overall DVOA rankings thanks to a big win against the Steelers and some close losses, but whilst their offence continues to struggle I think they will find it hard to keep up with the Falcons in this one, even if Wentz did lead a comeback against the Giants last week.

Gee’s Pick:          Falcons
Dan’s Pick:          Falcons

Bears @ Buccaneers (+0.5)

I like the Bears in this game as their defence seems to be coming together in the front seven, and the Buccaneeers are really struggling. It worries me that the Bucs have lost their four home games this season as you can’t see this team losing all their home games having won three on the road, but things do not seem to be coming together, and Jameis Winston doesn’t seem to have taken the step forward that I though he had after their first game. Partly this could be to do with the lack of running game on their offence, but I see them losing this one despite the Bears own problems this season.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Buccaneers

Broncos @ Saints (-1.5)

The real problem for the Broncos would be a combination of their lack of running game and the small cracks that have appeared in their defence. The injury to CJ Anderson seems to have broken the Broncos run game, and whilst Trevor Siemian looked good managing the offence when it was based around the run, he has struggled to carry the team. Meanwhile, on defence the injury to Aqib Talib has hurt their coverage and they struggled to stop the run against the Raiders last week. The Saints offence has looked good all year, and while most teams can run on the 49ers as the Saints did last week, I like the look of both Mark Ingram and Tim Hightower and I struggle to see the Broncos as currently constructed keeping up with the Saints offence at home. I would have not picked this game like this a few weeks ago, but I like the Saints in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Saints
Dan’s Pick:          Saints

Packers @ Titans (+2.5)

This is a rare narrative pick for me, as whilst I could see the Titans doing something at home given how they have played this year, and the Packers undoubtedly have problems, I can’t quite pick the Titans to win. The Packers have shown glimpses of themselves during the season, but have been unable to get things going consistently. However, after last week’s flat performance and all the talk after it, I can’t see them playing that way again.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Chiefs @ Panthers (-2.5)

The Panthers are looking much more like themselves over the past couple of weeks, but they are still a 3-5 team welcoming a very good Chiefs team who have a 6-2 record this season. The Chiefs may not be an exciting team to many, but they win a lot of games and I think they are the better team even if they are on the road.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Chiefs

Rams @ Jets (-1.5)

The LA Rams are something of a mess, which goes deeper than just their first overall pick quarterback not being ready to play yet, even if that is what most people are talking about. The Jets are not exactly a great team themselves, but as the home team I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt in this one.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Vikings @ Washington (-2.5)

Washington are coming off a bye and look to be shaping up well although they are going to really miss left tackle Trent Williams as he starts his four game ban for violating the NFL’s substance abuse policy. However, whilst this make me nervous as I have been really impressed with the Washington Line, the Vikings seasons seems to be coming undone as the injuries seem to have it critical mass on offence whilst the defence isn’t quite playing up to the standards it set earlier in the season. Time will tell if new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur can turn things round, but having lost to the Lions last week at home in a game they really should have seen out for a win, I’m not backing them against a rested Washington team playing at home.

Gee’s Pick:          Washington
Dan’s Pick:          Washington

Texans @ Jaguars (+1.5)

This is a straight forward pick as although I don’t like the Texans much due to the problems they are having on offence, they should still have enough to beat a Jaguars team who are having one of the most disappointing seasons in the league.

Gee’s Pick:          Texans
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Dolphins @ Chargers (-3.5)

This should be a really great game as the Dolphins pit their improved offensive line and three game winning streak against a Chargers team who are playing better than their record would suggest. After the horrible run of bad losses at the start of the year, the Chargers defence looks to be coming together and you always have a chance with Philip Rivers at quarterback, plus with the Dolphins travelling all the way to San Diego I am backing the Chargers to win. Sorry Dan.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

Cowboys @ Steelers (-2.5)

The Cowboys are a really good team, and I can easily see them winning this game, but I doubt they are going to go through the rest of the season without winning and the Steelers really need this game. Now that Ben Roethlisberger has his first game back under his belt, they really need to get things back on track if they are not going to slip too far behind the Ravens in the AFC North. There is too much talent on the Steelers’ offence to be down for the rest of the season and I think they get back on track this week. Or I could be proved very wrong, but I think this is a good spot for the Steelers.

Gee’s Pick:          Steelers
Dan’s Pick:          Cowboys

49ers @ Cardinals (-13.5)

This line is huge, but the 49ers run defence is truly abysmal and David Johnson is up there with the best running backs in the game and so I’m placing my faith in him and Bruce Arians’ staff. The Cardinals’ defence is playing really well this year, and I think they have too much for the 49ers although it is nice to see some signs in last week’s game that Colin Kaepernick is getting back to being a good quarterback.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Seahawks @ Patriots (-7.5)

This should be a great game, but the Seahawks have played a series of tough games that relied on extensive play by their excellent defence, whilst the Patriots are coming of a bye week. The Seahawks are one of the few teams that can play with the Patriots when they are at their best, but in this particular game with Tom Brady playing so well I see this being the wrong time for the Seahawks to be playing them in New England.

Gee’s Pick:          Patriots
Dan’s Pick:          Seahawks

Bengals @ Giants (-2.5)

Oh how this game scares me. The Bengals need to get things back on track fast, and although it was good to see Tyler Eifert back and playing well in London, there is not a lot of room for manoeuvre if the men in stripes want to get back to the playoffs. I still don’t have a handle on the Giants, but with a run of three wins and two passing rushing ends that could trouble an offensive line that has not been good this season, I’m kind of nervously hoping for the best.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Bengals

A strange week, too much work, and now two people picking the Browns:

Browns @ Ravens (-10.5)

So if last week’s Thursday night road team selection was based on the Falcons being a better team than the Buccaneers, this week’s is due to the Raven’s needing an eleven point in margin to cover this game and their sputtering offence being ranked dead last by DVOA. The Raven’s defence is playing really well, but it is a defence that Hue Jackson is familiar with given his history in the AFC North and having only lost by five points earlier in the season, I’m backing the Browns to keep this one close as well and will be very smug come Friday morning, or kicking myself a lot!

Gee’s Pick:          Browns
Dan’s Pick:         Browns

I am one team away from completing my mid-season round up, but it appears that the memory stick that those words are on is not in the house. I will get that up tomorrow, but I had better get the picks for tonight’s game up.

I’ll cover how we went last week in the next post as I don’t have the figures to hand although I did stretch my lead on Dan.

Bills @ Jets (-2.5)

I’m looking forward to seeing both defences in this game. The Jets started the season really well, but have seemed to slip a bit so it will be good to see what is going on. The Bill however look to be rushing their four linemen more, but I again am looking forward to see if this is the case for myself.

The offence for the Bills came alive last week with Sammy Watkins showing us what he can do whilst LeSean McCoy finally started to look like himself, and Tyrod Taylor returned from injury. However, both McCoy and Watkins are dealing with injuries. The Jets were actually leapfrogged by the Bills in the DVOA offensive ranking, but they have been just that bit more consistent, and they are at home so I think the Jets keep themselves in contention for a playoff spot with a win.

Gee’s Pick:    Jets
Dan’s Pick:    Jets

Considering the quality of games and the excitement surrounding the NFL at the moment, not to mention finally gaining a game on Dan, this is a really bad week to be short on time for writing. I won’t bore you with the details, but I will be trying a different format this week to keep the picks going, trying to hit key points from last week and the season so far without double checking various stats and rankings. Knowing my luck, I’ll do better picking this week.

Gee:     Week 9   7-6               Overall   66-68
Dan:     Week 9   6-7               Overall   69-65

Browns @ Bengals (-6.5)

So the Browns are doing okay this season, not in the way I was expecting but they remain competitive in a division where everyone has a winning record. The Bengals seem to be surviving their slump and turning it around, but the performance of Andy Dalton is still a little worrying. I think the Bengals will win this game, but the points are too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:       Browns
Dan’s Pick:       Browns

Falcons @ Buccaneers (+0.5)

The Falcons are ravaged by injury, but flew out of the gates to start the Wembley game yet couldn’t hold on against the Lions and lost another one. The Buccaneers covered against the Browns, and did some things themselves, but there seems to be such disarray with this team. I don’t particularly like either one of them, but at least the Falcons have a quality quarterback with some weapons and so in a pick the winner spread, I’m going for the Falcons.

Gee’s Pick:       Falcons
Dan’s Pick:       Falcons

Chiefs @ Bills (+1.5)

This should be a really good game, which you might have questioned before the start of the season, but both teams are playing well. The Bills have a tremendous defence and Kyle Orton seems to be providing enough stability at quarterback that they remain competitive in the AFC East. The Chiefs are also playing solid football, getting themselves a 5-3 record whilst staying in every game bar the now inexplicable loss to the Titans in week one. I’m really torn on this game, I’m leaning towards the Chiefs as I think they’ve been more consistent, but that could be EJ Manuel’s performance from earlier in the season poisoning my trust in the Bills.

Gee’s Pick:       Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:       Chiefs

Cowboys @ Jaguars (+7.5)

The Cowboys excellent start of the season seems to be stuttering, and as worrying as the Tony Romo back injury is, I’m also concerned that two weeks in a row their much praised offensive line has struggled to protect their quarterback. The Jaguars are playing pretty well on defence, but are just too short on talent, to win. That said, I have a feeling that the Cowboys will struggle and this will be a close game. Either that or DeMarco Murray is about to get right back on track after finally having his record breaking streak of one hundred yard games to start the season broken.

Gee’s Pick:       Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:       Cowboys

Dolphins @ Lions (-2.5)

The Dolphins had one of the performances of the week on Sunday in their 37-0 beating of the Chargers. They have a terrific defence, and they finally seem to be getting the best out of Ryan Tannehill, which has kept them part of the conversation in a competitive AFC East division. The Lions are heading up their division, playing excellent defence but they’re struggling on offence with some key injuries. I’m really torn on this game as well, for some reason I still don’t trust the Dolphins fully, but I’m not sure what I’m getting with the Lions either and I don’t feel I can go against a team that’s just won so convincingly.

Gee’s Pick:       Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:       Dolphins

Titans @ Ravens (-9.5)

The Ravens were playing so consistently, but have wobbled the last couple of weeks having lost Jimmy Smith, which really seems to have caused problems in their secondary, in fact so much trouble that they have just released two cornerbacks. The Titans on the other hand have been an incredibly non-descript team that seem lacking in talent and the best performance by one of their players on Sunday was the linebacker they just sent to the Patriots. The only thing that is making me think about this game is the spread, but I haven’t seen enough from the Titans’ offence that makes me think that they can exploit these problems and I don’t think it is a coincidence that the Ravens’ last two losses were on the road, I’m betting on them to bounce back. Although not particularly confidently.

Gee’s Pick:       Ravens
Dan’s Pick:       Titans

49ers @ Saints (-4.5)

The 49ers are having a troubled season, injured on defence and misfiring on offence, with an o-line whose play has slipped and problems getting the ball in the end zone. They are facing a Saints team who traditionally play well at home, and who have put together two wins in a row as they recover from a rocky start to the season. It appears that Drew Brees has found a rhythm and I think this is the week the Saints finally get themselves a winning record.

Gee’s Pick:       Saints
Dan’s Pick:       Saints

Steelers @ Jets (+4.5)

The Steelers have been good for two weeks in a row, with Ben Roethlisberger throwing six touchdowns in each of them. They still have some weaknesses on defence, but James Harrison has started rolling, a couple of weeks after coming out of retirement and was terrifying against the Ravens last week. The Jets seem to be imploding and I do not understand what benefit they are getting from starting Michael Vick over Geno Smith, frankly they would be better finding out for sure if Smith can turn it round and if not, getting the better pick. They’re not getting into the playoffs from their current position.

Gee’s Pick:       Steelers
Dan’s Pick:       Steelers

Broncos @ Raiders (+11.5)

The Broncos had a horrible game against the Patriots, and the narratives about Manning in the cold and losing to Brady will resurface, but I still think they are the most rounded team in the league and I think they will bounce back in this game. The Raiders finally have a pair of players for their fans to get excited about in the rookies David Carr and Khalil Mack, but haven’t been able to turn any of their close losses into wins. Sadly I don’t think they will be keeping this one close, but I don’t see them going winless all year.

Gee’s Pick:       Broncos
Dan’s Pick:       Broncos

Rams @ Cardinals (-7.5)

The Cardinals keep rolling with great defence and one of the best coaching jobs done by a staff of any team. The injuries kept piling up, but so do the wins and I don’t think this game will be an exception. The Rams got another win, with their much vaunted front seven looking more like themselves last week as they more than doubled their sack total for the year in one game. However, their offence struggled without Jake Long and I think the Cardinals will be a much sterner test than the struggling 49ers.

Gee’s Pick:       Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:       Cardinals

Giants @ Seahawks (-9.5)

The Seahawks have struggled to live up to their Super Bowl winning play of last year, but have righted the ship in the last couple of weeks against the Panthers and the Raiders. Neither of these have been big wins but I think that could be about to change, the Giants were pretty awful against the Colts last week, and have been struggling for large parts of the season, and Seattle is not the place to put that right.

Gee’s Pick:       Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:       Giants

Bears @ Packers (-7.5)

The Bears are also imploding, but not where I thought they would. The offence has failed to continue the progress from last year, with a lot of the blame surely falling on Jay Cutler who has thrown too many interceptions. The Packers had a wobble to start the season, but since Rodgers told Packers fans to relax, they’ve gone 5-1 and although I was overly bullish about them travelling to New Orleans, I don’t think they are going to have any such problems at home this week.

Gee’s Pick:       Packers
Dan’s Pick:       Packers

Panthers @ Eagles (-6.5)

The Panthers haven’t been able to get both the offence and defence to play well at the same time this season, with Cam Newton’s play being particularly worrying over the last couple of weeks. The Eagles have been a bit up and down this season, particularly as the o-line has had some injuries. They just lost Nick Foles to a broken collar bone and possibly more worryingly they’ve lost linebacker Demeco Ryans for the season. We’ll now get to see how well Mark Sanchez can play for an offensive minded coach, and I’m backing them more than the troubled Panthers.

Gee’s Pick:       Eagles
Dan’s Pick:       Eagles