Tag Archives: Green Bay Packers

The Week Before the Super Bowl

24 Saturday Jan 2015

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It has been a slightly odd week post the Conference Championship games, a mixture of the break in routine and the stories floating round has made things feel a little out of synch. I’m going to go through the games from the weekend and some of the other major stories floating round, but will look at the Super Bowl next week.

It feels like a slightly odd week to be trying to add value when there is such focused coverage, and the Pro Bowl is the only game of football this week. A game incidentally, that I have never watched before, although I may watch it back on rewind next week. The major story after the games has been the woefully monikered deflategate, but let’s look at the actual games first.

The first game of the day was a pretty one sided affair for fifty-five minutes, that exploded into an improbable comeback and eventual win for the Seahawks. The majority of the focus has been on the failed onside kick recovery, but there was more to this loss than that as some have been writing. The Packers were pretty dominant for the first fifty-five minutes, but the seeds of their downfall were sown as early as the first quarter. Twice in the first quarter the Packers drove down to the Seattle one yard line, but came away with only a field. I can understand kicking the first field goal, but you need to think about going for it on fourth down the second time you are down there as one of the key things in modern football is red-zone efficiency. More than that though, even if you fail you to convert, you pin the opposition against their own yard line so the down side is not that bad.

The real problem with the field goals, was it spoke of the conservative approach that Mike McCarthy and his team brought to this game, and when you add to the one touchdown scored out of the first three trips to the red-zone, an incredibly conservative approach to running the clock out, a defender who just gave himself up after the final interception, not testing Richard Sherman when he was playing cornerback with one arm, successfully disarming the Seattle offence for most of the game then going into a prevent defence, and meekly trotting up the field to kick a field goal rather than go for the touchdown when you have Aaron freaking Rodgers… well we know what happened.

You have to give the Seahawks credit for their part in the comeback, but even on their overtime touchdown the Packers were for some reason play zero safety so there was no one over the top to help. Their excellent secondary was nicked up with Earl Thomas dislocating his shoulder and only coming back in the second half once it had been strapped up, and Sherman’s injury in the fourth quarter. But what was worse for the Seahawks, was that their offence really didn’t get going until these last few moments. Apart from a few glimpses from Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks had done very little and Russell Wilson was having a nightmare, he threw four interceptions, fumbled the ball, and still came away with the win. He will need to play a lot better than that next week if he wants to win his second Super Bowl.

If the first game had amazing drama, then the second had an old fashioned thrashing. You have to give the Colts the credit they deserve for winning the two playoff games that they did, but just as they were making us question the distrust of their talent, they got battered by the Patriots. I wrote about the Patriots mutable nature when it comes to game planning, but in this one Belichick and his staff were definitely working on a plan of if it’s not broke, don’t fix it. The Patriots ran up over 170 yards of rushing in this game, with LeGarrette Blount repeatedly looking as if he had nowhere to go, but as Colts defenders over pursued he was able to get yards. The Colts clearly still have a lot of work to do if they are going to build a team capable of winning a Super Bowl around their clearly amazing quarterback, as they will need to compete with the NFL elite to have a chance of doing this and the roster is not ready for this yet.

If the game itself was a very one sided affair with not a huge amount to write about, the aftermath has seen a flurry of words and outrage when it was revealed on Monday that a number of the balls used by the Patriots’ offence were under the official designated pressure. This would make the ball easier to grip and therefore to throw and catch, but let’s be honest, this had no effect on the result of this game. The problem right now is perception as this is not the first time the Patriots have been embroiled in an issue of cheating, but the truth is we don’t know what happened and whilst the NFL doesn’t exactly have the best track record in investigation, we really don’t have much choice but to let the investigation run its course.

The Super Bowl is going to be a fascinating matchup between two teams that really divide opinion amongst fans, but I’ll look at that more next week.

NFL Conference Championship Preview

18 Sunday Jan 2015

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My overriding emotion after last week’s games was one of sadness, and not because there are now only three competitive games left, but the way Peyton Manning and the Broncos played left me feeling down. I’ll take a look at the teams leaving us before examining the Conference Championship games.

The were a lot more points scored in the first game of the weekend than I was expecting, but to take a fourteen point lead, have the Patriots level the score, get another fourteen point lead, the Patriots level once more, then take another lead, and yet finally lose the game must really hurt. The Ravens were able to move the ball well, running for over a hundred yards and passing effectively, but Joe Flacco threw two interceptions. On both of these, the safety came down to intercept balls thrown to Torrey Smith. What I didn’t know was that the first interception came whilst the Ravens were running a play that had worked in the first quarter, but flipped to the other side. If you get a chance, watch this video on the Patriots website with Belichick breaking down some key plays from the game, it’s one of the more fascinating tape segments you’ll see all year, and I owe a thanks to the excellent Michael Carlson for tweeting the link. The part that surprised me about this game was the defence, with the Terrel Suggs and Elvis Doomerville having quiet games, but whilst the Patriots were very pass heavy, Brady was getting the ball out of his hands before the pass rush could get there.

The Ravens are going to be a very good football team again next year, they have a lot of players already in place, are keeping their coaching team in tact, and they can reinforce the secondary as well as get players back. I’m getting worried already.

The Panthers gave a really good account of themselves in a really difficult place to play, but this game demonstrated that they are a team on the up rather than one pushing for a championship. There was more scoring in this game than I was expecting, but at the end of the day they simply were not talented enough to compete with the Seahawks when it mattered most. This will be an interesting offseason for them as they will have a little more cap room to play with, but the Cam Newton contract will be key, and to a large extent determine how they continue to build this team going forward.

The Cowboys benefited from officiating in their Wildcard game, and then suffered in this one, although the rule as it is currently written was enforced correctly. I thought Dez Byant had made the catch, although the bobble at the end made me think he was down inside the one. However, as soon as I saw the ball move on the replay I thought it would be overturned. This is the problem with replay, as whilst you want calls to be right, and replay helps you get this, as fans we want to see football plays and Dez Bryant made an excellent play. In fact, the Cowboys played really well in this came and could have won it.

There was not a lot of pressure up the middle from the Cowboys’ defence, but Rod Marinelli really took advantage of Rodgers limited mobility and there were several times when you could see huge spaces that he couldn’t run into. However, once the Packers adjusted in the second half, putting more receivers on the field to spread the defence, Rodgers was able to move the ball through the air and finished the game with over three hundred yards passing.

The Broncos fell out of the playoffs with a limp display that has led to the firing of Jon Fox. There are questions surrounding Peyton Manning’s arm strength, the extent of his leg injury, and whether he will come back next season. Selfishly I would like to see him come back as I still enjoy watching him play, when he’s not facing the Bengals, and as recently as three games ago he managed a terrifying third quarter in Cincinnati that makes me think that if can get injury free, he can still be effective. However, whether he can get that healthy, stay there, and still has the will power to go through everything required to play football only he will know. As much as anything, I would like a better end to his amazing career than this damp squib of game.

Whilst Manning struggled, so did the rest of the team. One of the few bright sparks was CJ Anderson who managed eighty yards on eighteen carries, and whilst there several drives that consisted of short runs on first and second down with a missed fade pass on third down, given Manning’s struggles in the pass game and these figures, a commitment to the run game could have kept the game closer. The big surprise for me on the other side of the ball however, was how little pass rush Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware managed as they managed no sacks and barely any pressure. This is a good team, but with so many free agents and now coaching upheaval, in addition to the status of Peyton Manning, the offseason could be something of a soap opera in Denver.

But enough of the teams that have left us, there are three more games to go so let’s get to the Conference Championship games:

Packers @ Seahawks

DVOA                                    Packers                        Seahawks

Overall:                       4th                                1st
Offensive:                   1st                                4th
Defensive:                   18th                              1st
Special Teams:            30th                              17th

The Seahawks very much took care of business last week, scoring more points than I thought they would whilst conceding more. In truth they got less out of Marshawn Lynch in the running game than I was expecting, but Russell Wilson was solid in the passing game and added twenty-two yards of rushing. They may not be a unit full of high-powered names, but the Seahawks skill players are playing very solid football and Russell Wilson continues to impress as a quarterback. They will be hoping to have a better day in the run game, but the Packers defence is not as fearsome prospect as the Panthers have been in recent weeks and they could have some success.

The Packers defence had some worrying moments last week, and whilst it was a great play by Julius Peppers to knock the ball out, it did look like DeMarco Murray was about to rip off a huge run with the defence opening up before him. In fact the Cowboys moved the ball pretty well and were certainly able to run the ball. This is perhaps not surprising as they were only ranked twenty-fourth in rush defence by DVPA through the regular season and this could be a real problem for them in Lynch get going.

The Packers are constructed for their defence to do enough to win, relying on their excellent offence, but in this game they are facing the best defence left in the playoffs, and probably the best in recent week. The Seahawks got some of their linebackers back and have been playing great defence for weeks now. Their secondary is incredibly strong with Kam Chancellor having an amazing game last week, demonstrating amazing agility to leap over the line in an attempt to block a field goal as well as getting a pick six. It will be interesting to see how they do against a Packers team who did not throw to Richard Sherman’s side of the field in their meeting on opening day back in September, but who have come on a long way since then. I would expect them to be aggressive early in the pass rush to test Aaron Rodgers movement and see if they can disrupt him in the passing game.

The Packers offence is different to where it was at the start of the season. Their o-line has coalesced and changed since the start of the season and has been playing excellent football. However, there is marked difference in the Packers home and away performance, and it has been talked and written that at home they are able to go through a number of plays to find the right one due to how quiet the stadium is. This is very much not going to be the case in one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL. The other problem for the Packers is that Aaron Rodgers played brilliantly last week on one leg, but it was clear that his calf injury was forcing him to play a different game, and whilst he could get away with this against the Cowboys defence, I’m not sure he will able to this week. You might think that it would be a good idea to rely on the run more to protect him, but although the Seahawks defence is famed for its secondary, they are still ranked second by DVOA in rush defence, which is in fact one place higher than their pass defence. There were some moments from Eddie Lacy, but he didn’t look that impressive for stretches of last week’s game and the Packers could do with a big game from him. However, in the passing game, whilst they did not get a strong game from Jordy Nelson last week, this didn’t matter as they got one hundred yard games out of Randall Cobb and Davante Adams so if they can spread the field again, maybe they can find a matchup they like,

This will be a fascinating game that I suspect the Seahawks will win due to their home field advantage and the difference in the way the Packers play away from home.

Colts @ Patriots

DVOA                                    Colts                            Patriots

Overall:                       13th                              2nd
Offensive:                   19th                              3rd
Defensive:                   7th                                12th
Special Teams:            15th                              7th

There have been talks of a possible second passing of the torch game for the Colts this week, with Andrew Luck having beaten Peyton Manning and now facing Tom Brady.

The matchups in this game will be interesting because the Patriots as a team are so mutable, you never know what Belichick and his staff are planning. Last week they abandoned the run game in the second half, ran plays with four linemen, and dusted off an options play the type we haven’t seen from them in years. That said, earlier in the year they pounded the Colts using extra linemen and racked up 246 rushing yards that included a two hundred yard, four touchdown day for Jonas Gray who has barely been heard from since. We don’t know if Belichick will revert back to the run attack this week, or if he will try to do something else, so from a tactical point of view this will be a fascinating game.

The Patriots offence had to rely on deception to get the win against the Ravens last week, but the Colts are a different proposition. They have looked very good in the playoffs so far, but the Patriots will offer a far more balanced challenge, Although talk of his demise were premature, Tom Brady doesn’t have the same ability to go deep he had when Randy Moss was running those go patterns, but he does have receivers that suit this offence, and Rob Gronkowski is a matchup nightmare for every team in the NFL. That said, they will miss their centre Bryan Stork, and one of the first things to look for is whether the line problems the Patriots suffered at the start of the season will resurface as they have to shuffle this unit.

The Colts defence has looked excellent for two weeks in a row, but the Bengals were missing too many receivers for Andy Dalton to excel, and the Broncos were strangely limited even taking into account the issues affecting Peyton Manning. The Patriots may be shuffling their line so there could be issues, Brady has his weapons and this could stretch this defence. They played great as a unit last week, and Vontae Davis was all over the field, but the Patriots don’t really have a single threat for him to man up against and at six foot and two hundred pounds, he doesn’t really match up with Gronkowski. This has been a tough tackling unit that has been really well coached, but I wonder if they get exposed against the Patriots like they were earlier in the season, two hundred yards is a lot to give up in the running game.

The Patriots defence has been a talking point for its fans as it has been as good as they have had for a long time, but it didn’t exactly catch the eye last week. The secondary that has been much improved did manage to get two interceptions last week, but as unit they gave up a lot of points and go against another good unit this week. That said, the Colts offensive line is not as good as the Ravens and so there is more chance of the Patriots getting a sustained pass rush. It will be interesting to see how much of this will come from Jamie Collins who is excellent at both pass rushing and coverage. What he is doing could well be a key as to what the Patriots think is the priority in this game and how they plan to get to Andrew Luck.

This leads us nicely to the Colts offence, which is only slightly more than Andrew Luck. Up until a couple of weeks ago I was only really impressed with four Colts players and three of them play in this offence. I don’t know if Andrew Luck will supplant our current great quarterbacks as some have been saying, as there are just too many variables, but he has certainly started his career in spectacular fashion. The throw he made to Donte Moncrief against the Bengals with defensive linemen round his feet was nothing short of spectacular. I have been pretty impressed with two of his targets, but whilst TY Hilton has an amazing knack of getting open, he drops too many balls, and Luck’s numbers would be even more impressive if Hilton had held onto some more of the very catchable balls that he has dropped. That said, I have been very impressed with his tight end Coby Fleener who has caught fifty balls for seven hundred yards this season, and seems to be good for several big plays a game whenever I’ve watched the Colts. However, the problem is that their o-line is not very good and whilst they could triple team Carlos Dunlap against the Bengals, I think they will be challenged more this week. But then again, I thought that last week and it didn’t materialise against the excellent pass rushers of the Broncos so only time will tell.

I am not sure how this game is going to go, as my instinct says that the Patriots should take care of business at home, but their o-line shuffle worries me and the Colts have been on a real run recently. That said, I’m not that impressed with the talent spread against their roster, and whilst they have been coached really well and are playing very tough football, I can see them coming up short against the elite teams in the league, and the Patriots are very definitely one of those.

NFL Divisional Playoff Preview – Sunday Edition

11 Sunday Jan 2015

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So last night we had one close and one not so close game. The Patriots eked out a 35-31 win despite being down by fourteen points twice, but the defence stiffened at the right times and managed to get two crucial interceptions from their safeties when Joe Flacco was throwing to Torrey Smith. In the second game the Panthers managed to keep it close for three quarters, but two interceptions were too much from Cam Newton who threw a pick six in the fourth quarter that sealed the game for the Seahawks.

So we know that the Patriots and Seahawks will be playing at home next week, so let’s have a look at who might be visiting them.

Cowboys @ Packers

DVOA:                       Cowboys                     Packers

Overall                        8th                                3rd
Offensive                    5th                                1st
Defensive                    21st                              18th
Special Teams             13th                              21st

The Sunday games open with probably the most iconic match up of the weekend as the self-proclaimed America’s team, the Dallas Cowboys, visit the Green Bay Packers.

In what has been something of a theme for the home teams this week, the Packers got off to a rocky 1-2 start to the season, with Aaron Rodgers telling Packers fans to, “R-E-L-A-X,” after their loss to the Lions. It would however prove to be sound advice, as they would only lose two more games over the rest of the season.

The Packers offence has at times been a thing of beauty this year, with their offensive line coming together in a way that has allowed everyone to shine. Aaron Rodgers put himself firmly in the discussion for the league MVP and is probably playing quarterback better than anyone else in the league right now. It was good to see Jordy Nelson finally get rewarded with a Pro Bowl berth given how well he has played over the last couple of season, and the Packers finally have a run game in the shape of Eddie Lacy. However, the big question in this game is the calf injury that Aaron Rodgers suffered in their final game against the Lions. He is promising that he will play this weekend, and he was effective throwing quick passes when he went back into the game against the Lions, but there is talk of a slight tear along with the significant strain. Rodgers has missed a lot of practice, but we won’t truly know what effect this will have until we seem him on the filed Sunday.

The Packers offence has been as good as anybody’s for several season, but the question has frequently been whether the defence can be good enough for them to go all the way. This was again the question for this unit earlier in the season, but moving Clay Matthews inside on early downs, and then returning him to the edge in passing downs seems to have solidified their run defence. The free agent addition of Julius Peppers at outside linebacker has also worked as he has looked as good as he’s done for years. They may only be ranked eighteenth by DVOA, but when your offence is ranked number one in the league then that could well be good enough.

The Cowboys have a tough task this week. They stuck to their guns in the only close game of last week, and managed to get the comeback amidst odd officiating whilst facing one of the best defensive units in the game. Assuming that Rodgers is effective, the problem for them this is that whilst they will have a much easier time running the ball, I don’t think they can rely on DeMarco Murray to grind out the game for them. The Packers offence is too explosive, and likely to put up too many points at home where Rodgers has been peerless, for the Cowboys to keep running the ball as I think this could allow the Packers to get away from them.

This all comes down to how Rodgers plays and whether the Cowboys can generate enough offence, as although their defences are not ranked that dissimilarly by DVOA, I have more faith in the Packers than I do in the Cowboys’ opportunistic unit.

Colts @ Broncos

DVOA:                       Colts                            Broncos

Overall                        13th                              4th
Offensive                    21st                              6th
Defensive                    10th                              5th
Special Teams             8th                                27th

The final game of the weekend is also one of the most intriguing as Peyton Manning welcomes his former team to Denver.

All the talk about the Broncos in recent weeks has been the health of Peyton Manning. He has not looked right for a number of weeks, and whilst the sight of Manning throwing wobbly balls is nothing new, there appears to be a lack of velocity that is finally causing issues. There is no doubting his mental ability, but the question is whether he body will allow him to do enough for the Broncos to the win. The good news is that the team are better prepared to deal with this now than they were last season. In recent weeks they have been relying on CJ Anderson in the run game, which has been effective behind a line that seems to have found a good line up in the secondary.

The Broncos defence was banged up last year going into the Super Bowl, but not only are they healthier right now, but their retooled secondary has been effective and the addition of DeMarcus Ware along with a healthy Von Miller has given them a fearsome pass rush. This has resulted in a unit that has leapt eleven places in defensive DVOA when you compare the 2013 regular season to this year, and you would think that they will be able to generate the pressure on Andrew Luck that the Bengals so singularly failed to get last week.

The Colts really took care of the Bengals, and looked good in patches, but I’m still not convinced by this team. Andrew Luck played a much cleaner game, cutting out the costly turnovers that has been plaguing him this season, and his numbers would have been even more impressive if his receivers hadn’t dropped very catchable balls. However, the Bengals offence was missing too many players to pose a credible long passing game so whilst the Colts looked good stopping the run, they could stack the box. They may not be scared of the long ball given how Manning is playing at the moment, but we are talking about one of the great quarterbacks to ever play the game and you would think he can find a way.

I would love to see Manning get a second Super Bowl Win, just to shut down the conversations surrounding how good he is. Success in the playoffs is such a matter of match ups, and there is so much variance in the standard NFL game, that whilst it is important I think too much is taken away from one of the great players in NFL history. That said, whilst he has often not had enough talent round him, it might be the case that he now has the team round him a season too late. It will be interesting to see how Andrew Luck goes, as he appears to be in a very similar situation as Manning in the early years, a great quarterback that possibly doesn’t have the team around him that he deserves, but this should be a fascinating end to the weekend’s games.

NFL Week 1: Packers @ Seahawks Recap

07 Sunday Sep 2014

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I thoroughly enjoyed the first game of the season. I have been through most of the coach’s tape, and it opens up a whole new world of things to look at, sadly I am limited by boring things like having a life, but here is what I took away from the game.

My things to watch list for these teams contained Aaron Rodgers, AJ Hawk, and Clay Mathews for the Packers; and for the Seahawks it was their secondary and Russell Wilson. I added watching how Julius Peppers would rush standing up as a linebacker.

We know that the Seahawks defence is good, but it really was excellent in this game. On the all twenty two tape it was easy to see how Earl Campbell sat deep and played the whole field, whilst the corners covered their side, and Kam Chancellor roved depending on the coverage called. Richard Sherman clearly had his receiver covered, but the Packers basically gave up on his side of the field as Rodgers hardly looked right all game. This was so obvious that I spotted it in the broadcast coverage whilst watching the condensed game, and it turns out that Sherman wasn’t targeted once all game. I can’t help but feel that you have to challenge Sherman somehow if you are going to beat the Seahawks, although I freely admit I wouldn’t know how.

You could see glimpses of what makes Rodgers so good, the arm, his manoeuvrability, but also that in being willing to hold onto the ball to make a pay, he takes sacks that he doesn’t have to. In fairness, the interception was not his fault, the ball bounced off the hands of his receiver and was well picked off by Byron Maxwell. The Packers struggled to move the ball and in the first half their two scores came from large chunks that were not successful plays on their part. The first came of a long pass interference call on Bobby Wagner and the second from recovered punt where Richared Sherman blocked his man into Earl Campbell, demonstrating that the pair of outstanding defensive backs are human after all.

The killer plays for the Packers were the two consecutive offensive plays in the third quarter where backup tackle Derek Sherrod gave up sacks. The first play was on fourth and five, with the Seahawks only rushing four and yet somehow they didn’t account for Cliff Avril at left defensive end, who came barely touched to sack Rodgers. There’s no way for me to know the play call or the protection, but although James Starks was on that right side of Rodgers in a shotgun formation, on the snap of the ball, after barely a pause, Starks runs a curl through the line, whilst Sherrod without having looked outside of him focuses on the tackle over him and then tries too late to stop Avril who is already past him. That’s the drive done and the Seahawks get the ball. The Seahawks don’t drive the ball successfully so after five plays they punt the ball. However, on the first play of the next drive, on the Packers own three yard line, Michael Bennet blows past Sherrod to get a strip sack that leads to a safety. These were not the first time that I saw Sherrod beaten this game, let’s hope this doesn’t become a long term problem.

The Packers do manage a nice drive in the fourth quarter to get a touchdown, with a failed two point conversion, but by then it is too late. We shouldn’t overreact to the first game of the season, it’s not exactly unprecedented for the Seahawks to be excellent on defence or beat teams handily at home, but it will be interesting to see how the Packers offence goes the rest of the season.

On offence for the Seahawks, I loved what they did with Russell Wilson, who is not your prototypical pocket passer and is only five foot eleven. However, he is very careful with the ball and the Seahawks put him in position to make plays, by using his manoeuvrability. The very real running threat make their read option plays dangerous, helped by just how good Marshawn Lynch is as a running back. This accounted for both of their first half touchdowns. The first was my favourite play on offence of the game. Russell Wilson first fakes the hand off to Marshawn Lynch then tucks the ball as if to run, but when corner Sam Shields bites on the play as a run, Wilson then pulls up and flips a pass to Ricardo Lockette who runs in the TD. For the second touchdown, Clay Mathews was staring into the backfield during the handoff, and gets sealed by the tight end Luke Williams coming across the line unseen so Mathews can’t make the tackle to stop Lynch running it in.

Marshawn Lynch is so good, very light on his feet and makes his cuts so well. I also love Eddie Lacy, whose cuts are so violent, but in this game he was bottled up by the Seahawks defence, but there were two great backs in this game.

It was harder to get a read on the Packers defence. Time will tell, but although I saw a couple of good plays from Peppers and Mathews, nothing really leapt at me. The one thing that the all twenty two did reveal on the Packers defence was how Percy Harvin got so open in the first half, which was when Morgan Burnett ran into linebacker AJ Hawk, allowing Harvin to get open for a thirty three yard gain.

Overall I wouldn’t be panicking just yet if I was a Packers fan, but I might be lowering my expectations a little after some of the bullish talk that was surrounding them during pre-season. The Seahawks looked like the team who have dominated at home in recent years and I expect them to go well again this season as long as they avoid the injury bug.