Bills @ Bengals (-2.5)

The Buffalo Bills have got off to a good start to the season, with impressive wins against the Broncos and Falcons in their last two weeks they stand atop the AFC East. However, they are travelling to face an improving Cincinnati Bengals team whose offence is showing signs of finding its way.

I am looking forward to seeing the Bills play, and their defence has looked good so far this season, but so has the Bengals defence and I think the men in stripes can edge this one out. I hope this isn’t a case of my heart ruling over my head.

Gee’s Pick:          Bengals
Dan’s Pick:          Bills

Jets @ Browns (-1.5)

The New York Jets are defying everyone’s expectations having won two home games to currently stand 2-2 and travel to face the Cleveland Browns. The Browns will be hoping that rookie pass rusher Myles Garrett can give them a spark as he seeks to make his professional debut in the regular season as he comes back from an ankle problem. However, the Brows have been really struggling and I find it hard to pick them to win against a Jets team who may not be great, but are finding ways to compete.

Gee’s Pick:          Jets
Dan’s Pick:          Jets

Panthers @ Lions (-2.5)

Up until  the press conference where Cam Newton started making misogynist comments about a reporter things had been looking up for the Carolina Panthers on offence. The Panthers’ quarterback had driven the ball better and there looked to be more run options worked into the game as Newton continues works back from offseason shoulder surgery. How much Cam will have been distracted by various meetings, and shooting a video apology, I don’t know, but it can’t have helped.

Nor will the defence Newton faces this week, as the Detroit Lions are currently ranked fifth by defensive DVOA as opposed to the struggling Patriots defence that the Panthers faced last week. The Detroit Lions got back to winning ways last week on the road against the Vikings and I fancy them to continue that this week.

Gee’s Pick:          Lions
Dan’s Pick:          Lions

Titans @ Dolphins (+2.5)

The Tennessee Titans travel to face the Miami Dolphins this week, facing a game time decision to on whether to play quarterback Marcus Mariota thanks to a hamstring injury. The Titans are coming off a horrible loss last week, and whilst I don’t think that will be repeated this week, I find it hard to believe this is the trip they need to sort things out. I’m slightly worried about making this pick as the Dolphins have not inspired confidence this year, but with them getting points at their first true home game of the season, I’m picking them to keep to within three.

Gee’s Pick:          Dolphins
Dan’s Pick:          Dolphins

49ers @ Colts (-1.5)

This is a really tricky game for me to pick as neither teams gives me a lot to work with. The Indianapolis Colts are celebrating the career of Peyton Manning, but his replacement Andrew Luck has barely practised this season thanks to injury and whilst Jacoby Brissett has demonstrated a lot more that Scott Tolzien, this was not exactly setting a high point in quarterback play. There’s not a lot for the Colts to hang their hat on at the moment, with their only win coming against the winless Browns, but they are facing an equally winless 49ers team.

The San Francisco 49ers have run two teams close in the last two weeks, including an overtime loss to the struggling Cardinals, but it is clear it is going to take time to turn things round. I am not particularly inspired by either team for this game, and so I’m reluctantly backing the Colts to beat the road team coming of an overtime time loss.

Gee’s Pick:          Colts
Dan’s Pick:          49ers

Chargers @ Giants (-3.5)

Something has to give with them winless LA Chargers traveling to face the equally winless New York Giants, unless these teams manage to engineer a draw. Still, given that the Chargers seem to specialise in close heart breaking losses, I’m going to reluctantly back them to keep this game closer than four points.

Gee’s Pick:          Chargers
Dan’s Pick:          Giants

Cardinals @ Eagles (-6.5)

The Arizona Cardinals follow up their overtime win against the 49ers with a trip to Philadelphia to face an Eagles team who despite the injuries in their defence are currently 3-1. This game pits the Eagles top five by DVOA rushing game against the Cardinals top five rush defence. I would expect the Eagles to win this game, but given that they have only beaten the Chargers and Giants by a combined five points in the last two weeks, this line against the Cardinals is too rich for me.

Gee’s Pick:          Cardinals
Dan’s Pick:          Cardinals

Jaguars @ Steelers (-8.5)

The Pittsburgh Steelers keep finding ways to win despite disruption on and off the field for their offence. This week they face a Jacksonville Jaguars team who seem to be a week on week off proposition so far this season, and by that logic are due a good week. I don’t believe in that kind of pattern, but what I do believe is that the Jaguars’ defence will be a sterner test than the beaten up Ravens defence the Steelers faced last week. I’m not sure if the Jaguars will give themselves a genuine chance to win the game, but I fancy their defence to keep it closer than nine.

Gee’s Pick:          Jaguars
Dan’s Pick:          Jaguars

Ravens @ Raiders (-3.5)

This game pits a Baltimore Ravens team who is struggling with both offensive and defensive line play thanks to injury, against an Oakland Raiders team who lost their quarterback to a transvers process fracture last week. Whilst Derek Carr is trying to get into the game this weekend, I find it hard to believe that the team will risk him with even a relatively minor fracture in his back.

This is a game where both teams have struggled over the last two weeks, and I’m finding it hard to make a pick as neither side inspires confidence, but with the Ravens struggling against the run since Brandon Williams went down injured I’m going to reluctantly back the Raiders and Marshawn Lynch at home. I have no confidence in this pick at all.

Gee’s Pick:          Raiders
Dan’s Pick:          Ravens

Seahawks @ Rams (-2.5)

This should be a really interesting game. I don’t believe that the LA Rams are the third best team in the NFL as their current overall DVOA ranking would suggest, but they are definitely improved under Sean McVay and perhaps the surprising thing is that their offence is ranked better than their defence. The Seattle Seahawks travel to LA having got a big win against the Colts, but the game was competitive until late in the third quarter. The Seahawk’s defence has not looked quite as solid as their front seven might have suggested, whilst their offensive line has been truly horrible. This could be a game where Aaron Donald runs amok given the offensive line he is going against, but the question is whether I can pick the Rams to beat a good team, but having beaten the Cowboys on the road, I will nervously back them against a Seahawks team who don’t look quite right yet.

Gee’s Pick:          Rams
Dan’s Pick:          Rams

Packers @ Cowboys (-1.5)

The Dallas Cowboys lost to the Rams last week, and this week welcome a Green Bay team that are struggling with injury, but have a quarterback in Aaron Rodgers who can keep his team in pretty much any game. The Cowboys rearranged offensive line might have taken a slight step back from their recent excellence, which combined with the lack of explosive passing options has made the Cowboys struggle more than some might have expected. However, the real problem for the Cowboys has been defence, and even with the number of tackle injuries the Packers have had this season, I am backing Rodgers to find a way and so I’m taking the Packers.

Gee’s Pick:          Packers
Dan’s Pick:          Packers

Chiefs @ Texans (+1.5)

This looks to be a fascinating game with the Houston Texans seemingly having found their quarterback of the future in Deshaun Watson and who are coming off a 57-14 win face the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs. If the Texans can find a consistent offence to match with their strong defence then they will be fearsome, but this week they face a Chiefs team who keep finding a way to win, even if the score line last week flattered them a little. I do like the Chiefs a lot, and whilst I don’t think they will go unbeaten, I do fancy them to run out eventual winners in this one despite the short week, although it would not surprise me the Texans win either.

Gee’s Pick:          Chiefs
Dan’s Pick:          Texans

Vikings @ Bears (+3.5)

The Chicago Bears will be starting Mitch Trubisky after a bad loss to the Packers that saw Mike Glennon throw two horrible interceptions as well as lose two fumbles, although one bad snap bounced of his knee and back to the Packers. However, he will be facing a Minnesota Vikings team with a strong defence and their own problems at quarterback. The status of Sam Bradford seems to be up in the air and couple this with the injury to Dalvin Cook that means the promising rooking running back has been lost for the season, and I’m really not sure what to do in this game. The Bears could have beaten the Falcons and did beat the Steelers, so with them getting three and a half points at home and the Vikings seeming to be somewhat Jekyll and Hyde on offence, I’m really tempted to pick them, I hate making picks with this much in the air so I’m grabbing the points and hoping for the best.

Gee’s Pick:          Bears
Dan’s Pick:          Vikingssa

Saints @ Dolphins (+2.5)

The week four games kick off with another London game as the Miami Dolphins host the New Orleans Saints. This feels like a hard game to pick with only two games played by the Dolphins where we have seen good Jay Culter and bad Jay Cutler as the Dolphins narrowly beat the Chargers and then lost to the Jets. The Jets… Meanwhile the Saints got off to an 0-2 start before turning things around against the Panthers last week, but their two losses were against the Vikings and a wounded Patriots team.

I’m not hugely confident, but there is a big gap in overall DVOA ranking between these two teams, and with neither of the defences playing well I’m going to back the future Hall of Fame quarterback to get enough points.

Gee’s Pick:            Saints
Dan’s Pick:            Dolphins

Bills @ Falcons (-8.5)

There are a lot lines that Dan and I found very tricky this week, but this was not one of them. That doesn’t necessarily mean that this game will turn out how we suspect, but whilst the Atlanta Falcons have got off to a 3-0 start, the Buffalo Bills have played everyone tough with their defence ranked second by DVOA in the league and so I fancy them to keep this game closer than nine points.

Gee’s Pick:            Bills
Dan’s Pick:            Bills

Bengals @ Browns (+2.5)

The Cleveland Browns started the season with hope of demonstrating progress, and they still might, but with both Myles Garrett and Corey Coleman being limited by injuries, it seems the Browns still can’t have nice things. The Cincinnati Bengals meanwhile have got off to a miserable start, but did show some progress against the Packers despite a conservative second half costing them the game. I can see this going wrong, but I think the Bengals get their first win this week as hopefully Bill Lazor continues to improve the offence.

Gee’s Pick:            Bengals
Dan’s Pick:            Bengals

Rams @ Cowboys (-8.5)

The Dallas Cowboys have had a somewhat rocky start to the season, not helped by the fact that they don’t seem to have anything that poses a deep threat in the passing game at the moment. The welcome a LA Rams team who have definitely improved under first year head coach Sean McVay and actually sit atop the NFC West division. I am not sure they have enough to beat the Cowboys on the road, particularly as they are taking on Ezekiel Elliott with the nineteenth ranked rush defence by DVOA, but I do think their offence has enough to keep this game closer than nine points.

Gee’s Pick:            Rams
Dan’s Pick:            Rams

Lions @ Vikings (-2.5)

The Detroit Lions lost a close game, which although it felt horrible with the clock run off deciding the game, the Lions may well have not got another play off in eleven seconds anyway. The Minnesota Vikings got their offensive game plan right last week so Case Keenum could lead them to a big win over the Buccaneers. I like the Vikings’ home advantage in what could be a close game, and the Vikings will be looking to avenge two close losses to the Lions last season.

Gee’s Pick:            Vikings
Dan’s Pick:            Vikings

Titans @ Texans (+1.5)

This is a tricky game for me as the Houston Texans are home underdogs by this line, and yet they have played well on defence, and Deshaun Watson looked to have taken something of a step last week against the Patriots. However, the Tennessee Titans offence played very well against the Seattle Seahawks last week, which gives me hope that they can do it again this week and so with a fair degree of trepidation I’m backing the Titans to win this one for me.

Gee’s Pick:            Titans
Dan’s Pick:            Texans

Panthers @ Patriots (-9.5)

In my experience, I never do well when picking against the New England Patriots, but with their defence really struggling the Patriots never got close to covering the line they were given against the Texans. However, they are facing a Carolina team whose offence has not looked right all year, and who just gave up over thirty points on defence. I shouldn’t be too focused on last week, but I think there is more going wrong with Cam Newton at the moment than facing a bad defence can fix, and so I’m going to double down on the Patriots and see if they reward my faith. I would apologise to fans of the Patriots for my jinx, but I think you’ve probably won enough recently.

Gee’s Pick:            Patriots
Dan’s Pick:            Patriots

Jaguars @ Jets (+3.5)

This has all the appearance of a trap game. The Jacksonville Jaguars just got a huge win against the Baltimore Ravens in London, but they now have to travel to New York to face a Jets team who are 1-0 at home this season and showed us something at last against the Dolphins. However, I don’t think I trust the Jets offence to get anything going against the Jaguars’ defence. I hate this line, and would run a mile if I could but as I have to pick this game I am going to reluctantly pick the Jets. Mainly because I can’t bring myself to back Blake Bortles on the road for two weeks in a row, and just because of the travel the Jaguars have put in over the last week.

Gee’s Pick:            Jets
Dan’s Pick:            Jaguars

Steelers @ Ravens (+2.5)

This is likely going to be a tight game, because these teams so often seem to play close games. The Baltimore Ravens will be desperate to put in a performance after a horrible display in London, and their defence knows what they will be facing in the Pitsburgh Steelers. I think that the Steelers will likely get their offence back on track at some point, and with Ravens’ defensive tackle Brandon Williams missing this week’s game, they may well get running back Le’Veon Bell going. I kind of like the Ravens as home underdogs, and it would not surprise me if they win or cover this line, but they have too many injuries at the moment and I feel like despite their problems, the Steelers are the better team.

Gee’s Pick:            Steelers
Dan’s Pick:            Steelers

Giants @ Buccaneers (-3.5)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are beat up on defence, lost to the Vikings last week, and their offence hasn’t found its feet yet this season. The New York Giants lost to a sixty-one yard field goal last week, but found something against the Eagles in the fourth quarter of last week. We are guaranteed one 0-4 team thanks to the Browns and Bengals playing each other, yet it seems unlikely we will have three of them. The Giants are getting healthier at receiver and with that extra half point I’m picking a mini recovery thanks to the banged up defence they are facing.

Gee’s Pick:            Giants
Dan’s Pick:            Giants

Eagles @ Chargers (-0.5)

The LA Chargers have got a real chance to finally get a win, but you can’t have a lot of faith in them as a team at this point. I could regret this as the Philadelphia Eagles were pretty beat up on defence last week, but the Chargers can’t even fill their small temporary stadium and in what amounts to a straight who will win pick, I am going with the team who seems more likely to find a way in a close game.

Gee’s Pick:            Eagles
Dan’s Pick:            Eagles

49ers @ Cardinals (-7.5)

This line seems off to me. The San Francisco 49ers are not a good team, but with David Johnson injured and an offensive line that just isn’t working very well, I have to face up to the fact that Bruce Arians and his coaching team are going to struggle this year. The 49ers got their offence working better against the Rams last week, and whilst that is no guarantee that they will be competitive against the Cardinals, an eight point win is too much for me to pick for this version of the Cardinals.

Gee’s Pick:            49ers
Dan’s Pick:            49ers

Raiders @ Broncos (-2.5)

The Oakland Raiders got off to a strong start, and I was very impressed with them through two weeks, but they lost heavily to Washington and now travel again to Denver to face the Broncos. The Broncos lost themselves last week, but their defence is formidable at home, and this feels like a bad spot for the Raiders. As long as Trevor Siemian gets back to looking after the ball I think they will be okay, and I have a feeling that the Raiders will fall back to 2-2, although with three road games in the opening four games that is not a bad start.

Gee’s Pick:            Broncos
Dan’s Pick:            Broncos

Colts @ Seahawks (-13.5)

I said on the podcast that I needed a very good reason to pick a team to cover when they are giving a double digit line and the Seattle Seahawks were not that team. The problem with that is as much as I don’t like their offensive line, they did put up twenty-seven points on the Titans last week. I expect the defence to look more like themselves against the Indianapolis Colts, particularly at home, but is this enough for them to cover this line? If Jacoby Brissett can move the ball then the Colts might stand a chance, but as much as I want to pick the Colts to do it, I just can’t bring myself to make the pick on the road.

Gee’s Pick:            Seahawks
Dan’s Pick:            Colts

Washington @ Chiefs (-6.5)

The Monday night game is another trial in difficult picking. The Kansas City Chiefs have played really well this season, and pit their explosive offence up against a Washington team who travelled to Oakland and got a good win. However, Arrowhead Stadium is one of the loudest in the league and the Chiefs’ explosive offence is a different prospect to the Raiders as they have enough speed that they are a threat to take any play for a big gain or a touchdown. The question is can Washington keep it close enough with an improving defence and an offence that is beginning to find its feet at last. I’m going to go with my first instinct and back Washington to stay within seven points on this one, but I could easily be wrong.

Gee’s Pick:            Washington
Dan’s Pick:            Chiefs